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1、1Quarterly Trend ReportGlobal Q2-2022Authors:FCM Consulting Global TeamAbout the ReportThis FCM Consulting quarterly report draws on global data sourced from FCM bookings,for travel during April to June 2022(Q2-2022)and uses Cirium aviation data as at July 19th,2022.Airfare variations exclude all ta
2、xes.The average room rate(ARR)quoted for accommodation is the average booked rate.Variations in rates booked,are a reflection of seasonality,supply and demand,corporate booking lead times,and subtle variations in exchange rates.Unless otherwise stated all fares and rates are reported in USD($).TRAVE
3、LERTRENDSCORPORATENeed to KnowSUSTAINABILITYDISPARITYGEOPOLITICALUNRESTTRAVEL CANCELEDRISING TRAVELCOSTSLABOR SHORTAGESTravelers have emerged in earnest.This resurgence comes amid a significant downgrade in the global economic outlook due to rising inflation.This will be the downside for H2-2022.Thi
4、s edition of FCM Consultings Quarterly Trend Report looks at the extreme supply and demand levers impacting the industry combined with considerable price increases across the board.CORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeaways Q2-2022We are seeing the highest inflation since the 1970s,with global inflationforecaste
5、d to reach 7.9%in 2022,compared to 2001-2019 annual average global inflation of 3.8%*.IMF global energy costs show coal and gas at record highs compared to non-fuel*.Jet fuel peaked in Q2-2022 at$175 per barrel.All these rising costs are being passed on to operators and consumers.GEOPOLITICAL UNREST
6、The crisis in Ukraine continued during Q2-2022,causing continued disruption on Europe to Asia flight routes and causing high fuel prices to impactairlines and travelers.Recent FCM Consulting global analytics indicate the top 30 corporate routes have increased+40%in Economy class and+23%in Business c
7、lass for the period of April-May 2022 compared to same period in 2019.RISING COSTS*Euromonitor International*Supplies starting to transfer the additional cost to consumer IATA Fuel MonitorSource:IMF Primary Commodity Price Averages GloballySource:S&P Global,Refinitiv ElkonCORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeawa
8、ys Q2-2022TRAVEL TRENDSFor fully-vaccinated travelers:141 countries are fully open53 require COVID testing6 require quarantine8 entry is restricted*Advance booking days globallyaveraged 26 days in Q2-2022 vs 18 days in Q1-2022.Book early to confirm a seat.TECHNOLOGYIncreasing+20%during Q2-2022,OBT u
9、se globally across FCM corporates is now averaging 65%in June 2022.Moreover,travelers rely on smartphone apps to access digital boarding passes,receive push alerts on changes,and use sites for location updates and options.SUSTAINABLE HOTELSSUSTAINABLE AIRLINESIn a recent FCM Consulting survey,80%of
10、procurement teams reported hotel sustainability is the hardest to assess when compared to other travel suppliers.On average 20%of hotels are being declined from 2023 hotel programs due to lack of sustainability strategies.Corporations starting to include electric or hybrid vehicles into their prefer
11、red programsUA made aviation history by flying the first passenger flight United Airlines was the first to use 100%SAF*,flying a 737 MAX 8 jet in December 2021.Which airline will be next?Now is time to assess the sustainability of your airlines.The SAF industry worth$220M in 2021 is set to be worth$
12、15B by 2032.The industry continues to focus on sustainable aircraft and fuel.*Restricted countries with full vaccination cycle:American Samoa,Cameroon,China,Macau,Samoa,Suriname,Taiwan,and Ukraine*Sustainable Aviation FuelAVIATIONKey Takeaways Q2-2022LABOR SHORTAGESPre-COVID travel and tourism emplo
13、yed some 330M people.In 2020,60M jobs were lost with only 18M replaced by 2021.With travel returning rapidly,many airports are struggling to recruit and screen new staff fast enough,forcing airports such as Heathrow and Frankfurt in the recent quarter to cap the number of travelers per day.CANCELEDP
14、ersistent staffing shortages,fewer flights,and booming demand are causing severe disruptions fortravelers experience.USA-based airlines canceled over 21,000 flights since Memorial Day weekend in May-2022.Lufthansa canceled 3,000+flights in July and August due to airport and staffing problems.NEW TRA
15、VEL PLANSUntil airport staffing levels can meet demand,we encourage travelers to:Arrive early:2-3 hrs for Domestic and 3+hrs for International Pack spare items in your carry-on Allow more time at Passport Controlupon arrival and have flexible ground transport connections when you land Plan for the u
16、nplanned Security line18-07 06.30 AMHeathrowAVIATION-GLOBALUPWARD TICK00500600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecGLOBAL SEATSSEATS-MILLIONSFCM Consulting Analytics as at 19 July 2022Source Data:Cirium Air Seats20222Long range aviation forecasts are subject to change.Therefore,
17、we recommend only observing schedules 4-6 weeks ahead.2022 FORECASTQ2-2022 showed steady monthly growth in seats offered with-23%less seats compared to Q2-2019.Since our Q1-2022 report issued in April,a further 120M seats have been removed from original schedules to the end of the year.Its forecaste
18、d for the calendar year ending 2022 that there will be-832m(-15%)less seats than 2019.50%60%70%80%90%100%110%JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC2022 SEATS AS%OF 2019ASIAAUSTRALASIACARIBBEANCENTRAL AMERICAEUROPEAFRICAM.EASTNORTH AMERICASOUTH AMERICAAVIATION-REGIONALCONSTRAINEDQ2-2022 saw Europe,Nort
19、h America,and South America seats level out with nominal growth.Staff shortages across airlines and airports strained growth and caused many cancelations.H2-2022 forecasts have the majority of regions-10%below 2019 seat volumes,with North and South America regions+4%above 2019 levels by November.Int
20、ernational flights into China are not expected to return until 2023.ACTUALFORECASTFCM Consulting Analytics as at 19 July 2022 Source Data:Cirium Air Seats2019 BASELINE2022 FORECAST&ACTUAL COMPARED TO 2019AIRLINE SEATFORECASTThe top 20 global corporate airlines rebounded,with a global average of 87%s
21、eats offered in 2022 vs 2019.American Airlines is set to return to 2019 levels by end of H2-2022.Fastest seat growth in H2-2022:Cathay+39%,Air New Zealand+24%,Lufthansa and Qantas+19%respectively.Across the Top 30 airlines globally the average on time arrival was 66.4%,-5.7%during Q2-2022.AIR CANADA
22、84%AIR FRANCE87%AIR NEW ZEALAND88%AMERICAN AIRLINES100%BRITISH AIRWAYS78%CATHAY PACIFIC51%CHINA EASTERN87%DELTA AIR LINES89%EMIRATES74%ETIHAD AIRWAYS63%LATAM94%LUFTHANSA84%QANTAS AIRWAYS94%QATAR AIRWAYS84%SINGAPORE AIRLINES80%SOUTH AFRICAN AIR.13%THAI AIRWAYS38%UNITED AIRLNES95%VIRGIN ATLANTIC91%VIR
23、GIN AUSTRALIA88%Airlines Seats offered%H1-2022(inner)and H2-2022(outer)compared to 2019 same periodTOP ORIGIN AND DESTINATION AIRFARESAirfare%change in April&May 2022 vs 2019 same periodAustralia&New ZealandECONOMYBUSINESSAKL-MEL 36%19%AKL-SIN 11%23%AKL-SYD 42%18%BNE-SYD 23%18%MEL-SIN8%12%MEL-SYD 14
24、%13%USAECONOMYBUSINESSAKL-JFK 31%18%EWR-ORD 25%39%FRA-JFK 27%4%JFK-LAX5%23%JFK-LHR 13%11%LAX-SYD 51%33%FCM Consulting Analytics as of July 19th,2022.Airfare variations exclude all taxes.Economy class excludes full Y class.Source Data:CiriumLondonECONOMYBUSINESSBOS-LHR2%=0%DUB-LHR3%34%DXB-LHR 48%22%F
25、RA-LHR 38%7%LHR-MAD9%12%LHR-SYD 36%22%Singapore&IndiaECONOMYBUSINESSBOM-DEL2%2%DEL-JFK 46%29%DEL-LHR 79%34%LHR-SIN 46%36%SFO-SIN 36%22%SIN-SYD 5%8%FULL HOUSEGlobally in June 2022,hotel occupancy reached 64%*,+4%on Q1-2022 and+1%on 2019.Top occupancy regions for Q2 wereCentral America 97%,South Ameri
26、ca 95%andMiddle East 95%.Forecasts indicate occupancy will remain high well into 2023.NORTHERN SUMMERAs corporate travel rebounded in Q2-2022,the global average nightly rates grew$25+.Availability also fell and corporate travelers struggled to book cities such as:Dublin,London,and New York.Having th
27、e choice of contracted fixed rates and dynamic discounts kept costs low for travelers.Now is the time to review hotel policy rate caps and allowances.CLEAN MY ROOMUnder the spotlight during COVID-19,cleaning and hygiene were a very big consideration when booking a hotel.As hotels struggle to recruit
28、 staff,another significant challenge is the operating cost increases to clean a room.On average the cost to clean a room has increased+30%.This is another cost which is being passed on to consumers.ACCOMODATION Key Takeaways Q2-2022*as reported by Amadeusas reported by STRSource:STR.2022 CoStar Grou
29、pOccupancy continues its path back to 2019 levelsOccupancy%(standard)indexed to 2019,June YTD 2022 86%81%95%97%Northern Africa84%93%EuropeAustralia&OceaniaCentral AmericaSouth America excl.Venezuela95%83%72%70%Asia(excl.Mainland China)Middle EastNorth AmericaSouthern AfricaMainland ChinaOccupancySou
30、rce:STR.2022 CoStar GroupTremendous rate growth H1-2022ADR%change to 2019,CC,USD,June 2022 16%26%20%27%17%15%1%31%-8%-18%Northern AfricaEuropeAustralia&OceaniaCentral AmericaSouth America excl.VenezuelaAsia(excl.Mainland China)Middle EastNorth AmericaSouthern AfricaMainland China11%19%19%25%11%15%17
31、%-19%-15%15%MonthlyYTD$297LOS ANGELES$255VANCOUVER$323BOSTON$253TORONTO$145EDMONTON$169OTTAWA$405NEW YORK$215MEXICO CITY$279CHICAGO$289SEATTLE$239DENVER$206DALLAS$210ATLANTA$228MIAMIClick to add textNORTHAMERICAAccommodationQ2-2022Corporate RatesAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vsQ1-2022 13%Q2-2019 18%
32、$USDDEMAND OUTSTRIPS SUPPLY AS THE ARR SOARS ABOVE 2019 LEVELS BY$28+COMPARISON TO Q1-2022 CHICAGO 30%LOS ANGELES 15%NEW YORK 23%MEXICO CITY 74%VANCOUVER 24%$160=BUENOS AIRES$228RIO$172SALVADOR$184SANTIAGO$111BOGOTA$149=LIMA$151QUITO$163CARTAGENA$150=SANTA CRUZ$169SAO PAULO$97SAN JUANLATIN AMERICAAc
33、commodationQ2-2022RATES RISE IN KEY CITIES SEEING THE REGIONAL ARR GROW+$24 ON 2019COMPARISON TO Q1-2022 BUENOS AIRES=Hold LIMA=Hold RIO 220%SANTIAGO 22%SAO PAULO 125%Corporate RatesAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vsQ1-2022 41%Q2-2019 18%$USDASIAAccommodationQ2-2022CORPOATE AND LEISURE TRAVEL SWELLS P
34、USH RATES UP+$28 ON 2019COMPARISON TO Q1-2022 CHENNAI=Hold HANOI1%MANILA 32%KUALA LUMPUR 17%SHANGHAI 30%SINGAPORE 8%$189TOKYO$104BEIJING$157JAKARTA$93GUANGZHOU$92 SHANGHAI$259HONG KONG$147HANOI$115MANILA$100BANGKOK$172TAIPEI$169SEOUL$122BANGALORE$68=CHENNAI$89DELHI$206SINGAPORE$75KUALA LUMPURCorpora
35、te RatesAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vsQ1-2022 34%Q2-2019 23%$USDAUSTRALIA&NEW ZEALANDAccommodationQ2-2022A HEALTHY MOMENTUM FOR TRAVEL WITHIN THE REGION SEES ARR+$28 ON 2019COMPARISON TO Q1-2022 ADELAIDE 6%AUCKLAND 21%KALGOORLIE 15%MELBOURNE 1%SYDNEY 6%WELLINGTON 23%$184SYDNEY$170MELBOURNE$124PERT
36、H$159BRISBANE$199DARWIN$159ADELAIDE$158HOBART$160=CANBERRA$111QUEENSTOWN$145AUCKLAND$149CAIRNS$140WELLINGTON$123CHRISTCHURCH$212P.MORESBY$171KALGOORLIE$168ORANGE$137GERALDTONCorporate RatesAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vsQ1-2022 9%Q2-2019 15%$USDEUROPEAccommodationQ2-2022$135FRANKFURT$188PARIS$241DU
37、BLIN$325LONDON$182MADRID$112ABERDEEN$135MANCHESTER$233AMSTERDAM$147MOSCOW$174ISTANBUL$94 BUCHAREST$202MILAN$129BERLIN$137BUDAPEST$209STOCKHOLM$205OSLO$130MUNICHCorporate RatesAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vs$USDSTRONG DEMAND INTO TOP CITIES ACROSS EUROPE LIFTS THE ARR+$14 ON 2019COMPARISON TO Q1-202
38、2 AMSTERDAM 18%BERLIN=Hold DUBLIN 25%FRANKFURT 10%LONDON 50%MADRID 50%Q1-2022 19%Q2-2019 11%MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAAccommodationQ2-2022SEASONAL RATES SOFTEN,HOWEVER ACROSS THE REGION ARR IS+$25 ON 2019COMPARISON TO Q1-2022 ABU DHABI2%CAIRO8%CAPE TOWN5%DUBAI 50%JOHANNESBURG=Hold RIYADH7%Corporate Rate
39、sAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2022 vs$USD$89=JOHANNESBURG$167NAIROBI$223CAIRO$186LAGOS$246RIYADH$162DUBAI$157DOHA$237ABIDJAN$165RABAT$255LUANDA$337TEL AVIV$112CAPE TOWN$166ABU DHABI$90WINDHOEK$98GABORONEQ1-2022 6%Q2-2019 17%CONTRACTS&PARTNERSHIPCar rental average daily rates bookedfor Q2-2022 are+17.7%h
40、igher than Q2-2019 due to demand and rising operating costs.In Q2 many travel procurement teams started to reset their travel programs,along with reviewing suppliers.We recommend commercial contract reviews for car rental be rolled over for the year ahead.FLEET LOOKING GOODEarly forecasts indicate b
41、y the end of 2022 car rental fleets will be on average+5%above those of 2019 and the growth will continue well into 2023 with 10-15%growth on 2019.As car manufacturing rose in Q2-2022 rental companies added new fleets daily.The demand for car rental remains high.We recommend booking early to secure
42、a car for H2-2022MOBILITY Key Takeaways Q2 2022ELECTRIC VEHICLESBoth corporate and vacation travel car rental bookings surpassed 2019 levels at the start of Q2-2022.In a bid to avoid rising fuel costs,travelers pushed for electric rental options.The current global average cost of fuel/gas is US$1.43
43、*per liter,High fuel markets for corporate car rentals are:UK$2.27,Spain$2.06,France$1.99,Germany$1.83,and New Zealand$1.91.More InformationFCM ConsultingThis report was prepared by the FCM Consulting Analytics team,which forms part of FCM.All materials presented in this report,unless specifically i
44、ndicated otherwise,is under copyright and proprietary to FCM.Information contained herein,including projections,has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication.Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance,accuracy,completeness and
45、currency of the information of this publication.This report is presented for information purposes only.All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material,nor its content,nor any copy of it,may be altered in any way,transmitted to,copied or distributed to any other party without prior e
46、xpress written permission of FCM.Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of this report is prohibited.FCM will not be liable for any loss,damage,cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.To learn more about FCM C the alternative