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1、 Report for Ericsson Future value of mobile in emerging markets Janette Stewart,Hugues-Antoine Lacour,Andrew Yi-Ju Chern 09 November 2022 Ref:698248491-273 Ref:698248491-273.Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Status of 5G deployment in emerging markets 3 3 Framework for the cost-benefit analysis in this st
2、udy 7 4 Costs and benefits of 5G deployment 9 4.1 Baseline scenario 9 4.2 Scenario 1 extending low-band 5G coverage 12 4.3 Scenario 2 extending mid-band 5G coverage 14 4.4 Overall results 17 5 Social and environmental benefits of 5G 21 5.1 Assessment of social benefits 21 5.2 Assessment of environme
3、ntal benefits 22 6 Conclusions and recommendations for policy makers 24 Future value of mobile in emerging markets Ref:698248491-273.Confidentiality Notice:This document and the information contained herein are strictly private and confidential,and are solely for the use of Ericsson.Copyright 2022.T
4、he information contained herein is the property of Analysys Mason and is provided on condition that it will not be reproduced,copied,lent or disclosed,directly or indirectly,nor used for any purpose other than that for which it was specifically furnished Analysys Mason Limited North West Wing,Bush H
5、ouse Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel:+44(0)20 7395 9000 Registered in England and Wales No.5177472 Future value of mobile in emerging markets|1 Ref:698248491-273.1 Introduction Analysys Mason was engaged by Ericsson to produce a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of 5G deployment in 15 emerg
6、ing nations,including Bangladesh,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Egypt,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,Nigeria,Pakistan,South Africa,Thailand and Turkey,based on three deployment scenarios.This study was conducted between March and October 2022,in collaboration with Ericssons regional and local teams
7、for 5G policy and technology for the markets under study.The study was to quantify:the cost and extent of 5G coverage likely to be provided by commercially led 5G roll-out using available 5G bands,i.e.low band,mid band and millimetre-wave(mmWave),1,over a timeframe from 2020 to 2035.This commerciall
8、y led deployment is assumed to be mainly motivated by demand for consumer-driven use cases,including enhanced mobile broadband(eMBB)and fixed-wireless access(FWA).This is the baseline scenario.the additional investment needed beyond the baseline to expand the footprint of low-band 5G and achieve wid
9、er geographical coverage.This expanded footprint is assumed to be useful for some industrial use cases(e.g.in sectors such as agriculture or freight and logistics)and for consumers located in rural areas.This is the low-band expansion scenario,i.e.Scenario 1.the additional investment needed beyond t
10、he baseline to extend mid-band coverage to achieve similar geographical coverage to the low-band baseline footprint.We assume this will enable more advanced 5G use cases to be offered in the market(e.g.automation,augmented and virtual reality,high-quality video processing in industrial sectors).This
11、 is the mid-band expansion scenario,i.e.Scenario 2.the consumer surplus that 5G is expected to generate from 5G-based MBB use,as a result of the availability of higher speeds and improved experience for a significantly lower cost per gigabyte(GB)than with previous generations of mobile technologies.
12、Consumer surplus is quantified in the baseline scenario,while the additional surplus generated by the greater proportion of mobile subscribers covered by 5G is calculated in Scenario 1,and by having access to higher speeds across a larger mid-band footprint in Scenario 2.the incremental economic/gro
13、ss-domestic-product(GDP)benefits that 5G coverage expansion brings,which are estimated based on 5G enabling use cases across five industry clusters,including smart factories,mining,construction,energy and utilities(Smart industry cluster),airports,ports,freight and logistics(Smart logistics cluster)
14、,agriculture(Smart rural cluster),1 In this report,low-band spectrum refers to sub-1GHz spectrum used to initially introduce 5G services(e.g.600MHz,700MHz).Mid-band spectrum refers to 2.3GHz unpaired,2.6GHz unpaired or 3.5GHz spectrum.Millimetre-wave(mmWave)refers to spectrum between 24GHz and 40GHz
15、.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|2 Ref:698248491-273.municipal buildings and healthcare/hospitals(Smart public services cluster).Economic benefits are quantified for both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2,based on the expected contribution of low-band and mid-band spectrum(respectively)to those b
16、enefits.The study also assessed qualitatively,in each benchmark country,the potential of 5G to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in industrial sectors through achieving greater efficiency and productivity,and to enable a range of social benefits(social inclusion,safety and security,wellbeing).Thi
17、s report provides a summary of the key findings of the study,and is structured as follows:Section 2 summarises the latest status of 5G deployment in each country Section 3 provides an overview of the framework used for the cost-benefit analysis in the study Section 4 describes our modelling approach
18、 to quantify the costs and benefits,and the main cost and benefit output Section 5 summarises the results of our analysis of the social and environmental benefits of 5G Section 6 sets out our conclusions and recommendations Future value of mobile in emerging markets|3 Ref:698248491-273.2 Status of 5
19、G deployment in emerging markets Several mobile network operators(MNOs)have now launched initial 5G services in emerging countries,typically by adding 5G new radio(NR)to their 4G infrastructure.Commercial 5G services were available in Brazil,South Africa and Thailand as early as 2020,while MNOs in C
20、hile and Malaysia(via national wholesale operator Digital Nasional Berhad,or DNB)switched on their commercial 5G networks in 2021.Most recently,Telcel in Mexico launched 5G in February 2022,MTN in Nigeria in September 2022,while Airtel and Jio switched on their 5G networks in key cities in India in
21、October 2022.Figure 2.1 below provides an overview of publicly reported 5G launches to date by MNOs in emerging countries.Figure 2.1:Commercial 5G availability in emerging markets,as of October 2022 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry Launch dateLaunch date Brazil Q3 2020 Claro and Vivo launch
22、ed 5G services using 700MHz,1.8GHz and 2.6GHz via dynamic spectrum sharing(DSS)in July 2020 Chile Q4 2021 Entel,Movistar and WOM launched 5G services using 3.5GHz spectrum in Q4 2021 India Q4 2022 Airtel and Jio launched 5G services in several large cities in early October 2022 Malaysia Q4 2021 DNB
23、switched on its 5G wholesale network in December 2021 using both 700MHz and 3.5GHz frequencies Mexico Q1 2022 Telcel launched 5G services in February 2022 using 3.5GHz spectrum Nigeria Q3 2022 MTN launched 5G commercial services in September 2022 in some areas of Lagos,with plans to expand to other
24、cities in the near term South Africa Q2 2020 Vodacom and MTN launched 5G non-standalone(NSA)in Q2 2020 using temporary concession spectrum(700MHz,800MHz,2.3GHz,2.6GHz and 3.5GHz)Thailand Q1 2020 The regulator awarded unpaired 2.6GHz spectrum in early 2020,which AIS used to launch 5G services in Febr
25、uary 2020 MNOs in Indonesia and Colombia are anticipated to introduce 5G services in 2023.No clear announcement of a timetable for spectrum allocation and deployment has been made so far in Bangladesh,Egypt,Morocco,Pakistan,and Turkey.Initial 5G deployments have typically been driven by demand for m
26、obile data services,and hence 5G has been used by MNOs to offer eMBB and FWA services to consumers,with higher speed and lower latency improving the overall experience of existing mobile services.The evolution of 5G networks to a standalone(SA),virtualised architecture,together with new associated t
27、echnology developments such as edge computing and artificial intelligence(AI),is expected to generate further improvements in latency and bandwidth and expand the range of 5G use cases available(e.g.virtual reality for immersive broadcasting of live events,in-store shopping experience based on augme
28、nted Future value of mobile in emerging markets|4 Ref:698248491-273.reality,cloud gaming,video streaming in 8K resolution).These new uses will increase data intensity in telecoms networks,meaning that mobile data traffic is expected to grow quickly,with figures from the latest Ericsson Mobility Repo
29、rt2 suggesting that the average mobile data traffic per smartphone could more than quadruple between 2021 and 2027 in emerging nations,reaching 34GB per month in 2027 in Latin America(up from 7.9GB per month in 2021),45GB in South-East Asia and Oceania(up from 9.4GB per month in 2021),11GB in sub-Sa
30、haran Africa(up from 2.9GB per month in 2021),50GB in India,Nepal and Bhutan(up from 20GB per month in 2021)and 45GB in the Middle East and North Africa(up from 10GB per month in 2021).Figure 2.2:Average monthly data traffic per smartphone subscriber Source:Ericsson,2022 Beyond consumer use cases,th
31、e evolution of 5G will be a key enabler for a variety of industrial use cases that would be difficult to implement fully using previous mobile technologies.As a result,it is expected that once 5G SA networks are fully deployed,a large portion of the benefits of 5G to national economies will be gener
32、ated by industrial use cases,either via economy-wide effects or by creating significant gains within economically important sectors.While the most economically important industry sectors will vary from one country to another,the range of applications and sectors where 5G technology might play a role
33、 is likely to be diverse.Figure 2.3 provides examples of live deployments and trials of industrial 5G use cases in a variety of sectors.Figure 2.3:Examples of 5G use cases and their benefits Source:Ericsson,2022 Vertical Vertical sectorsector CountryCountry Case descriptionCase description Benefits
34、indicated by trialsBenefits indicated by trials Smart industry USA Highly automated factory from Ericsson producing 5G network equipment.The Increased efficiency,improved visibility into 2 See further detail at:https:/ Future value of mobile in emerging markets|5 Ref:698248491-273.Vertical Vertical
35、sectorsector CountryCountry Case descriptionCase description Benefits indicated by trialsBenefits indicated by trials factory is a full-scale operation realising the potential of 5G with Industry 4.0 to enable intelligent automation and leverage real-time data across operations.Key initial use cases
36、 enabled in the factory include energy data management,environmental monitoring and augmented reality for remote support energy consumption and reduction in energy bill,waste reduction,increase in machine uptime,reduction in travel and labour costs Smart industry Australia In partnership with wirele
37、ss edge networking equipment manufacturer Cradlepoint and Telstra,construction group Taylor Construction deployed,at selected construction sites,5G-based high-speed connectivity to enable next-generation applications such as holographic building visualisation,wide-area safety scanning,real-time desi
38、gn display and IoT structural sensing Improved existing network performance,driving improved cost efficiencies and increased client satisfaction Smart rural India Global tool manufacturer Stanley Black&Decker worked closely with Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom to roll out a connected smart irrigation
39、platform to manage,monitor and track connected solar-powered water pumps.Based on 2G today but with capabilities of 5G to support massive IoT,this type of low-band industrial case can be further cost effectively scaled Optimised energy efficiency and water supply sustainability,reduction in energy b
40、ills for farmers Smart rural USA Agricultural machinery manufacturer John Deere unveiled an autonomous tractor fitted with AI-enabled cameras,enabling the detection of obstacles and calculation of distances.Low-latency 5G connectivity is expected to play a key role in autonomous operations(e.g.by he
41、lping farmers remotely controlling tractors,or having real-time access to live video,images,metrics and notifications)Improved productivity,reduction in labour costs,improved safety The speed at which the benefits of 5G will be achieved for consumers will depend to a great extent on the pace at whic
42、h MNOs invest in and implement a widespread roll-out of 5G networks.For industrial use cases,the benefits of 5G are dependent on the extent to which industrial sectors adopt new ways of working via digital transformation,of which 5G is a part.In several benchmark countries in this study,4G services
43、have been launched relatively recently,which will likely limit the MNOs incentive to invest significantly in the deployment of 5G before achieving a fair return on investment from their existing 4G networks.In Pakistan,for example,Jazz and Zong launched commercial 4G services in 2014,Telenor in 2016
44、 and Ufone in 2019;in Egypt,all four MNOs launched commercial 4G services in 2017.Even among countries where 5G services Future value of mobile in emerging markets|6 Ref:698248491-273.are being planned for launch in 2022 or 2023,the overall adoption of 4G fluctuates significantly from one market to
45、another and hence the extent of initial 5G roll-out might be uncertain.This is an especially important issue for policy makers which are looking to maximise the socioeconomic impact of 5G in their countries.Incentivising operators to accelerate 5G deployment therefore requires a careful demonstratio
46、n of the cost and benefits of achieving a widespread 5G footprint,which has been the core focus of this study and is discussed in the following sections.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|7 Ref:698248491-273.3 Framework for the cost-benefit analysis in this study The objective of this study
47、has been to model the costs and benefits of the deployment of 5G in the 15 emerging countries considered,for 12 different use cases and under three deployment scenarios.The baseline scenario considers the cost and extent of commercially led 5G eMBB and FWA roll-out using available 5G bands,i.e.low b
48、and,mid band and mmWave,between 2020 and 2035.Scenario 1 quantifies the additional investment needed to expand the footprint of low-band 5G and achieve wider geographical coverage,to be used by some industries(e.g.agriculture,freight and logistics)and consumers in rural areas.Scenario 2 evaluates th
49、e additional investment required to extend mid-band coverage beyond its baseline footprint to achieve similar geographical coverage to the low-band baseline footprint,to enable more advanced 5G use cases(e.g.automation,augmented and virtual reality,high-quality video processing in industrial sectors
50、).The study has considered four types of benefits,as illustrated in Figure 3.1 below:The consumer surplus that 5G is expected to generate,as a result of the availability of higher speeds and improved experience for a significantly lower cost per gigabyte(GB)than with previous generations of access t
51、echnologies.Consumer surplus is captured under the Smart consumer cluster.The incremental gross-domestic-product(GDP)benefits that 5G coverage expansion brings to use cases across four clusters,including Smart industry,Smart logistics,Smart rural and Smart public services.Incremental GDP benefits ar
52、e quantified for both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2,based on the expected contribution of low-band and mid-band spectrum(respectively)to economic benefits.3 The environmental benefits generated by 5G,based on its potential to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in industrial sectors through greater dig
53、ital transformation,of which 5G is a part.The social benefits associated with the use of 5G,including improved social inclusion,safety and security,increased wellbeing,etc.The consumer surplus and incremental GDP benefits have been estimated via quantitative analysis,while the environmental and soci
54、al benefits have been estimated qualitatively.3 Note that Malaysia is a unique case:5G is being rolled out by a single wholesale network operator,DNB,with a commitment to deploy a nationwide 5G network.In agreement with Ericsson,we have considered any further expansion(Scenarios 1 and 2)of this base
55、line deployment to be outside the scope of our analysis,and have associated the economic benefits of 5G to the baseline deployment only.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|8 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 3.1:Overview of 5G clusters,use cases and benefit types in the study Source:Analysys Mason,202
56、2 Municipal buildingsHealthcare and hospitalsEnergy and utilitiesFreight and logisticsAirportsPortsMiningSmart factoriesAgricultureConstructionSmart industrySmart logisticsSmart ruralUse casesUse casesEnvironmental benefitsSocial benefitsSmart public servicesBenefit typeBenefit typeSmart consumereMB
57、BFWAEconomic benefitsConsumer surplusClustersClustersFuture value of mobile in emerging markets|9 Ref:698248491-273.4 Costs and benefits of 5G deployment This section provides a description,for each deployment scenario,of our modelling approach and main assumptions,and a discussion of the key result
58、s.4.1 Baseline scenario 4.1.1 Modelling approach and assumptions The baseline roll-out model is used to estimate the costs and benefits of commercial deployment using available 5G bands in the market in question,including in low band(e.g.600MHz,700MHz),and mid band(e.g.2.3GHz unpaired,2.6GHz unpaire
59、d,3.5GHz).We also consider the future availability of mmWave spectrum(e.g.26GHz)to provide FWA services and to be used by small cells deployed in some urban areas.Our modelling excludes the impact of re-farming of existing mobile bands in sub-1GHz and 13GHz spectrum that are currently used for 2G,3G
60、 or 4G and instead focuses on the costs of rolling out 5G NR in new 5G spectrum:4G traffic is expected to account for over 50%of mobile data traffic until at least 2029 in most benchmark countries,pushing back the timeframe for any re-farming of existing mobile bands to the very end of the forecast
61、period considered in this exercise;in net present value terms,any cost incurred in this later part of the forecast period would be significantly discounted,considerably reducing the impact of re-farming on the overall cost of roll-out.We have assumed low-band 5G is rolled out across all existing sit
62、es in each market,such that long-term population coverage matches historical long-term 4G population coverage.For mid-band spectrum,we have assumed roll-out across all urban and suburban macro sites,which we have modelled to be areas above a population density of 600 people per km2 in most markets.4
63、 We have also assumed the deployment of 26GHz alongside the mid-band footprint to provide FWA services,as fibre to the home(FTTP)is unlikely to be deployed extensively in many emerging markets.Spectrum in the 26GHz band is also assumed to be used for localised coverage provided by small cells in are
64、as qualified as“urban hotspots.5 For each country,we have applied a 5G population coverage profile,with roll-out going up to 100%of the long-term coverage achieved by type of band over a defined period.Our modelling assumes that low-band and mid-band deployment will achieve 100%of long-term coverage
65、 within six to nine years from the initial launch,depending on the country considered.4 In most markets,we have applied a threshold value(600 people per km2)for mid-band roll-out.We have used a higher population density threshold(up to 1800 people per km2)in Pakistan and Bangladesh where mobile conn
66、ectivity ARPUs are significantly lower(up to 45 times lower)than in most other countries considered.For Malaysia,we have used a lower density threshold value(100 people per km2)for mid-band roll-out to reflect DNBs commitment to provide access to data throughput of at least 100Mbit/s to 5G subscribe
67、rs across Malaysia.5 We have modelled urban hotspots as urban locations with over 200 000 inhabitants.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|10 Ref:698248491-273.Population coverage,alongside detailed population distribution data and cell-radius assumptions,has been used as input to calculate th
68、e number of 5G sites required to cover each country.More specifically,population distribution data for each market is contained within a grid of area squares(commensurate with cell size);these squares are then ranked by population density to calculate population-area curves and to determine urban,su
69、burban and rural site classifications(or geotypes).The number of macro sites for coverage in each geotype is estimated based on the cell radius per site for different frequency bands,with roll-out occurring from highest population density to lowest,up to long-term population coverage.The number of s
70、ites used for long-term population coverage,combined with the total number of macro sites available per country,is then used to estimate the number of remaining sites that can be used for capacity,which we assumed to be distributed across the coverage grid according to population.Unit cost figures(c
71、apex and opex)are applied for the projected number of sites to estimate the cost of 5G roll-out.The total cost of deployment per market is calculated by multiplying the cost incurred by a hypothetical MNO by an adjusted number of MNOs per country.The adjustment factor is an assumption we have develo
72、ped to reflect the number of operators in a market taking account of any publicly reported active sharing agreements for 4G or 5G.Economic benefits in the form of sectoral GDP uplifts are expected to be less relevant to the deployment of an initial eMBB network and have not been considered in the ba
73、seline scenario.The consumer surplus has been calculated by estimating the difference between an assumed cost per GB of mobile data that a 5G mobile subscriber would be willing to pay for 5G services,and an estimate of the actual cost per GB incurred,multiplied by the average mobile data traffic gen
74、erated by that subscriber.The cost per GB of data varies between markets,as does the average data traffic per subscriber,and both affect the magnitude of the consumer surplus generated per 5G subscriber.The overall consumer surplus has then been extrapolated by multiplying the surplus per subscriber
75、 by a projected total number of 5G subscribers over time.4.1.2 Key results Our modelling suggests that when low band is deployed across the entire grid in all countries,it typically achieves population coverage above 90%by 2030,in line with long-term 4G coverage.Geographical coverage is driven by th
76、e distribution of population across the land area,and as a result varies significantly across countries.Because mid-band 5G is typically deployed in urban and suburban areas,mid-band coverage is expected to cover only 4070%of the population in the long term,i.e.less than 6%of the countrys land area.
77、As an example,Figure 4.1 shows the low-band mid-band coverage footprint at maturity for Brazil in the baseline scenario.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|11 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.1:Baseline scenario coverage Brazil Source:Analysys Mason,Meta,OpenStreetMap contributors,World Bank,2022 W
78、e estimate the aggregated cost of 5G roll-out to be USD38 billion in most benchmark countries,and up to USD75 billion in India,as shown in Figure 4.2 below.Most deployment costs are incurred by 202829,by which point 5G is fully rolled out across the existing network grid in most countries.Figure 4.2
79、:Cumulative net present value of 5G roll-out costs by country across all MNOs,202035 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 Our results indicate that the introduction of 5G networks can generate consumer surplus totalling USD110 billion per country,as illustrated in Figure 4.3 below.Future value of mobile in em
80、erging markets|12 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.3:Cumulative net present value of consumer surplus,202035 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 4.2 Scenario 1 extending low-band 5G coverage 4.2.1 Modelling approach and assumptions From the baseline scenario,we have estimated the incremental costs of extending the
81、 footprint of low-band 5G to all rail,road and agriculture areas.This expanded footprint is assumed to be driven by industrial demands to address some use cases that 5G can enable across vertical clusters(e.g.agriculture,freight and logistics)as well as to provide population coverage in rural areas.
82、We have assumed the deployment of a single network infrastructure between 2026 and 2032 for low-band coverage beyond the baseline,with active sharing between MNOs in each market.We have also assumed that building greenfield sites in these areas carries higher unit costs(due to difficulty of installa
83、tion,cost of providing power,etc.).Economic benefits have been calculated by estimating the sectoral GDP connected to a 5G-enabled use case and the long-term uplift enabled by 5G.As low-band 5G is expected to be most relevant for use cases requiring mobility over wide areas(e.g.massive sensor networ
84、ks deployed over wide areas)and/or with more modest capacity requirements,only a portion of the full long-term GDP uplift enabled by 5G has been assumed to be addressable by low-band spectrum.Estimates have been informed by published reports providing approximations of 5G-enabled sectoral GDP uplift
85、s.We have assumed the long-term uplift to be phased in across a period of time,in line with 5G roll-out speed and adoption.In particular,the complexity and cost of implementing bespoke 5G-enabled industrial use cases may be relatively high in early years,which would limit adoption initially.Future v
86、alue of mobile in emerging markets|13 Ref:698248491-273.It should be noted that the GDP uplift represents a best case scenario on the basis that there will be significant take-up of 5G use cases from enterprises across a variety of sectors.In reality,a number of barriers to adoption will exist(e.g.c
87、ost and complexity of deployments,business case,skills,limited supply ecosystem availability).In addition,some sectors are likely to have a limited degree of industrialisation and digitalisation in some emerging nations(e.g.industrialisation within the agricultural sector is slow in many markets).Ou
88、r estimates assume that 5G will prompt and/or accelerate industrialisation.Wider government policies(which are not 5G specific)to accelerate industrialisation more generally are also important,in addition to 5G-specific policies.4.2.2 Key results Our modelling suggests that building new low-band mac
89、ro sites beyond the baseline footprint to achieve coverage alongside all rail,road and agriculture areas,would result in an additional 312%investment needed per market(assuming a single infrastructure roll-out,as noted previously).Figure 4.4 shows the mapping output of our modelling exercise for Sce
90、nario 1 for Turkey,with low-band 5G covering all rail,road and agriculture areas(at maturity).Figure 4.4:Scenario 1 coverage Turkey Source:Analysys Mason,Meta,OpenStreetMap contributors,2022 We estimate the economic benefits from this extended low-band deployment could amount to USD13 billion per co
91、untry.The agriculture sector is the largest contributing sector to GDP across all countries considered,driving the magnitude of the economic benefits achieved in the Smart rural cluster.Most countries are expected to generate economic benefits that are three to ten times higher than the incremental
92、cost of extending low-band coverage,as illustrated in Figure 4.5 below.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|14 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.5:Cumulative net present value of incremental costs and economic benefits by country,Scenario 1,202035 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry CostCosts s
93、 (USD(USD billion)billion)Benefits(USD billion)Benefits(USD billion)BenefitBenefit-toto-cost cost ratioratio Smart Smart industryindustry Smart Smart logisticslogistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices TotalTotal Bangladesh 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.3 0.1 2.6 18.5 Brazil 2.3 1.9
94、 0.2 2.2 0.1 4.4 2.0 Chile 0.1 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.5 10.2 Colombia 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.1 3.2 Egypt 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.8 7.0 India 1.9 5.2 0.9 9.4 0.1 15.6 8.4 Indonesia 0.6 2.8 0.3 2.4 0.1 5.6 8.8 Mexico 0.7 2.3 0.2 0.8 0.1 3.3 5.1 Morocco 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2.8 Nigeria 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 1
95、.1 6.1 Pakistan 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.3 2.0 South Africa 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4 3.3 Thailand 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.7 11.7 Turkey 0.5 1.4 0.2 1.0 0.1 2.6 5.0 It should be noted that Bangladeshs population is distributed across its land area,leading to significant low-band geographical coverage(64%)i
96、n the baseline scenario.Due to its small land area,the incremental number of sites required to achieve full road/rail/agriculture geographical coverage and implied cost for low-band extension are relatively limited,contributing to a high benefit-to-cost ratio(18.5).Extending low-band coverage will s
97、lightly increase the share of population covered,as well as the proportion 5G subscribers(out of the population covered by 5G)by the end of the forecast period,as the more consistent availability of higher speeds over a wider geographical area may incentivise more consumers to migrate to 5G.This gen
98、erates additional consumer surplus,estimated to add up to USD50300 million per country.4.3 Scenario 2 extending mid-band 5G coverage 4.3.1 Modelling approach and assumptions In this scenario,we have modelled the extent and cost of additional mid-band deployment beyond the mid-band footprint calculat
99、ed in the baseline scenario.While low-band spectrum will be sufficient to address the technical requirements of some use cases,the most advanced 5G use cases will require additional functionality(in terms of capacity,latency,Future value of mobile in emerging markets|15 Ref:698248491-273.upload/down
100、load speeds,etc.).This can be achievable only by expanding mid-band MIMO6 coverage outside of its baseline footprint and deploying additional macro sites and small cells in localised areas.We assume bespoke 5G-enabled use cases exist within the agriculture,freight and logistics,construction,energy a
101、nd utilities and mining sectors that will require higher capacity and low-latency capabilities.We have assumed a single,multi-use case mid-band mMIMO network can simultaneously serve multiple use cases via bespoke network slices.We have assumed that existing eMBB sites within the low-band baseline f
102、ootprint would be upgraded to include mid-band spectrum,with some level of densification(i.e.new macro sites)required to achieve contiguous coverage.We have not assumed any additional deployment outside of the low-band coverage footprint,due to the high cost of deploying new sites in hard-to-reach a
103、reas.Bespoke use cases within smart factories,ports and airports are expected to have stronger uplink capacity requirements compared to consumer eMBB.We have assumed the deployment of new dedicated mid-band mMIMO UL/DL7 macro sites in those locations.We have assumed the deployment of small-cell netw
104、orks to support use cases in sectors such as healthcare,municipal buildings and smart factories,driven by requirements for indoor coverage,and high-reliability/low-latency requirements.Economic benefits have been calculated following a methodology similar to that used in Scenario 1,assuming that a p
105、ortion of the full long-term uplift enabled by 5G is addressable by mid-band spectrum.4.3.2 Key results Our modelling exercise estimates that deploying additional mid-band massive MIMO macro sites to achieve similar geographical coverage to the low-band baseline footprint,and adding bespoke coverage
106、 in specific locations to enable advanced use cases(e.g.mMIMO UL/DL macro sites and small cells),would result in an additional 1525%investment per market.Figure 4.6 provides the output of our modelling for Scenario 2 in Indonesia,whereby mid-band coverage has been extended to achieve a similar footp
107、rint(at maturity)than that of the low-band footprint in the baseline scenario.6 Multiple in multiple out.7 Uplink and downlink.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|16 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.6:Scenario 2 coverage Indonesia Source:Analysys Mason,Meta,OpenStreetMap contributors,2022 Economic
108、benefits from extended mid-band deployment are estimated to be USD512 billion per country.The economic benefits generated by the Smart industry and Smart rural clusters together account for 8590%of the total economic benefits in each market.This is primarily driven by the relative importance of the
109、industry sectors connected to these clusters(e.g.agriculture,manufacturing,construction)to the economy of the benchmark countries considered in this study.Most countries are expected to generate economic benefits that are three to seven times higher than the incremental cost of extending mid-band co
110、verage,as illustrated in Figure 4.7 below.Figure 4.7:Cumulative net present value of incremental costs and economic benefits by country,Scenario 2,202035 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry CostCosts s(USD(USD billion)billion)Benefits(Benefits(USD billion)USD billion)BenefitBenefit-toto-cost c
111、ost ratioratio Smart Smart industryindustry Smart Smart logisticslogistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices TotalTotal Bangladesh 0.7 4.2 0.7 2.7 0.2 7.8 10.8 Brazil 4.1 7.1 0.8 4.7 1.5 14.1 3.4 Chile 0.4 4.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 5.2 12.6 Colombia 0.7 1.8 0.2 1.0 0.3 3.3 4.5
112、Egypt 0.5 2.9 0.4 1.9 0.3 5.5 12.0 India 6.4 19.2 3.7 20.0 1.9 44.8 7.0 Indonesia 2.5 10.1 1.2 5.2 0.5 17.0 6.8 Mexico 1.7 8.7 0.7 1.7 0.5 11.7 6.8 Morocco 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.2 3.0 Nigeria 1.0 1.1 0.2 1.5 0.1 2.9 3.0 Future value of mobile in emerging markets|17 Ref:698248491-273.CountryCountry C
113、ostCosts s(USD(USD billion)billion)Benefits(Benefits(USD billion)USD billion)BenefitBenefit-toto-cost cost ratioratio Smart Smart industryindustry Smart Smart logisticslogistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices TotalTotal Pakistan 1.1 1.1 0.3 1.9 0.1 3.4 3.2 South Af
114、rica 1.0 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.1 5.0 Thailand 0.9 3.2 0.6 1.6 0.2 5.7 6.1 Turkey 1.6 5.3 0.7 2.1 0.4 8.6 5.4 Extending mid-band coverage will provide consumers with access to higher speeds from 5G-enabled devices,and we have assumed consumers would be willing to pay a slightly higher premium for these h
115、igher speed connections.The difference between this premium and the actual cost per GB that we anticipate consumers will pay is expected to generate additional consumer surplus,which we have estimated would add up to USD0.21.5 billion per country.4.4 Overall results Overall,our modelling suggests th
116、at a baseline 5G deployment is estimated to cost USD38 billion per country,with an additional 2035%investment required to extend coverage.As illustrated in Figure 4.8 below,while Scenario 1 requires the deployment of new sites in remote areas,the incremental cost of 5G deployment tends to be higher
117、in Scenario 2 than in Scenario 1.This is because whilst the larger geographical area to extend low-band coverage to rural areas is expected to require 1525%additional geographical coverage on top of the low-band baseline,the mid-band extension requires 35-50%additional geographical coverage on top o
118、f the mid-band baseline;as a result,there are more sites to upgrade in Scenario 2(with higher upgrade costs),compared to the additional sites in Scenario 1.Furthermore,the cost of additional bespoke deployments at use case locations(e.g.ports,airports)is also a contributing factor in Scenario 2.In a
119、ddition,Scenario 1 assumes that a single MNO would be responsible for the deployment in remote areas,while Scenario 2 assumes that some mid-band upgrades would be duplicated across all MNOs.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|18 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.8:Cumulative net present value of cos
120、ts by country(202035)and scenario Source:Analysys Mason,2022 Extending coverage beyond the baseline footprint can generate significant GDP benefits from industrial adoption of advanced 5G use cases other than MBB,especially from mid-band coverage extension(see Figure 4.9 below).Mid-band spectrum is
121、a key enabler of advanced 5G use cases(e.g.high-quality video processing,automation,AR/VR)that are expected to have a significant impact in terms of business benefits(e.g.greater productivity,cost savings).As a result,the economic benefits generated by extending mid-band coverage across the entire l
122、ow-band baseline footprint in Scenario 2 are considerably higher than those generated by extending low-band coverage in hard-to-reach areas in Scenario 1.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|19 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 4.9:Cumulative net present value of economic benefits by 5G roll-out scenar
123、io(202035)Source:Analysys Mason,2022 Most countries are expected to generate overall economic benefits three to seven times higher than the incremental cost of extending coverage.Because Scenario 2 carries significantly higher costs(and generates higher benefits)than Scenario 1,the overall benefit-t
124、o-cost ratio across both scenarios is more reflective of the benefit-to-cost ratio of Scenario 2.Figure 4.10:Cumulative net present value of incremental costs and economic benefits and benefit-to-cost ratio by country,Scenarios 1+2 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry CostCosts s(USD(USD billio
125、n)billion)Benefits(USD billion)Benefits(USD billion)BenefitBenefit-toto-cost cost ratioratio Smart Smart industryindustry Smart Smart logisticslogistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices TotalTotal Bangladesh 0.9 5.3 0.8 4.0 0.2 10.3 12.0 Brazil 6.4 9.0 1.0 6.9 1.6 18
126、.5 2.9 Chile 0.6 5.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 6.7 11.9 Colombia 1.1 2.3 0.3 1.5 0.3 4.4 4.1 Egypt 0.7 3.6 0.6 2.8 0.3 7.3 10.2 India 8.2 24.4 4.6 29.4 2.0 60.5 7.3 Indonesia 3.1 12.9 1.5 7.6 0.5 22.5 7.2 Mexico 2.4 11.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 15.0 6.3 Morocco 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 2.9 Nigeria 1.2 1.4 0.3 2.2 0.1 4.0 3.5
127、Pakistan 1.7 1.4 0.4 2.8 0.1 4.7 2.8 South Africa 1.5 5.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 6.5 4.5 Future value of mobile in emerging markets|20 Ref:698248491-273.CountryCountry CostCosts s(USD(USD billion)billion)Benefits(USD billion)Benefits(USD billion)BenefitBenefit-toto-cost cost ratioratio Smart Smart industryindu
128、stry Smart Smart logisticslogistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices TotalTotal Thailand 1.1 4.0 0.8 2.3 0.3 7.4 6.9 Turkey 2.1 6.7 0.9 3.1 0.4 11.2 5.3 Our results suggest that 5G MBB can generate consumer surplus totalling USD110 billion per country,with coverage e
129、xtension giving 2030%extra consumer surplus.As shown in Figure 4.11,extending low-band coverage(Scenario 1)could marginally increase the proportion of 5G subscribers(out of the population covered by 5G)by the end of the forecast period,as the more consistent availability of higher speeds over a wide
130、r geographical area may incentivise more consumers to migrate to 5G.Extending mid-band coverage(Scenario 2)is expected to provide consumers with access to higher speeds,which we have assumed consumers would be willing to pay a slightly higher premium for.The difference between this premium and the a
131、ctual 5G cost per GB is expected to generate additional consumer surplus.Figure 4.11:Cumulative net present value of consumer surplus by 5G roll-out scenario(202035)Source:Analysys Mason,2022 Future value of mobile in emerging markets|21 Ref:698248491-273.5 Social and environmental benefits of 5G 5.
132、1 Assessment of social benefits Beyond generating economic(GDP)benefits for industries and additional surplus for consumers,5G is expected to have a significant impact on society,for example by:offering a better mobile experience in terms of video quality,latency and speed(e.g.eMBB)increasing safety
133、 and security(e.g.in factories,mines,construction sites,ports,airports,freight and logistics)through better-performing,real-time connectivity enhancing social inclusion(e.g.through access to 5G-based FWA broadband,better healthcare through digital applications,and so forth)improving sustainability f
134、or key industries in rural areas(e.g.agriculture)enhancing the efficiency of collaboration(e.g.through better-performing connectivity within municipal buildings)helping energy companies optimise energy grids(e.g.energy and utilities),improving energy efficiency for households.As it is difficult to r
135、obustly quantify the social benefits of 5G,we have assessed them qualitatively,by considering the importance of each use case within the long-term visions and national plans set by governments and the potential for 5G to create new benefits.Overall,our assessment suggests that the social benefits en
136、abled by 5G will be greatest from 5G-based FWA,smart factories,freight and logistics,agriculture and healthcare use cases,as shown in Figure 5.1 below.Note that we have not allocated 5G social benefits to a specific scenario.Figure 5.1:Assessment of social benefits of 5G,by country and use case8 Sou
137、rce:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry Smart Smart consumerconsumer Smart industrySmart industry Smart logisticsSmart logistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices eMBBeMBB FWAFWA Smart factoriesSmart factories MiningMining ConstructionConstruction Energy and utilitiesE
138、nergy and utilities PortsPorts AirportsAirports Freight and Freight and logisticslogistics AgricultureAgriculture HealthcareHealthcare Municipal buildingsMunicipal buildings Bangladesh Brazil Chile 8 =high benefits,=medium benefits,=lower benefits.The highest priority use cases are shown with a grey
139、 background and a blue border.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|22 Ref:698248491-273.CountryCountry Smart Smart consumerconsumer Smart industrySmart industry Smart logisticsSmart logistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public public servicesservices eMBBeMBB FWAFWA Smart factoriesSmart
140、 factories MiningMining ConstructionConstruction Energy and utilitiesEnergy and utilities PortsPorts AirportsAirports Freight and Freight and logisticslogistics AgricultureAgriculture HealthcareHealthcare Municipal buildingsMunicipal buildings Colombia Egypt India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Morocco N
141、igeria Pakistan South Africa Thailand Turkey 5.2 Assessment of environmental benefits The use of 5G as an enabler of industrial use cases is also expected to help organisations across sectors to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions,for example by:enabling a better utilisation of time and materials(
142、e.g.factories)reducing unnecessary travel/journeys(e.g.healthcare,freight and logistics)improving energy use and reducing waste(e.g.construction,energy and utilities,agriculture)enhancing air quality monitoring(e.g.mining)reducing transport congestion(e.g.airports,ports).Our assessment of environmen
143、tal benefits has been based on the contribution of each sector to greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for 5G to reduce those emissions.Overall,our analysis suggests the environmental benefits enabled by 5G will be greatest in agriculture,freight and logistics,smart factories and construction,
144、as shown in Figure 5.2 below.Note that while 5G can contribute to digital transformation within the industries shown,we do not account for changes in pace of industrialisation,but indicate the benefits that 5G can deliver,if industries undergo digital transformation,and adopt 5G.Future value of mobi
145、le in emerging markets|23 Ref:698248491-273.Figure 5.2:Assessment of environmental benefits of 5G,by country and use case9 Source:Analysys Mason,2022 CountryCountry Smart Smart consumerconsumer Smart industrySmart industry Smart logisticsSmart logistics Smart Smart ruralrural Smart Smart public publ
146、ic servicesservices eMBBeMBB FWAFWA Smart factoriesSmart factories MiningMining ConstructionConstruction Energy and utilitiesEnergy and utilities PortsPorts AirportsAirports Freight and logisticsFreight and logistics AgricultureAgriculture HealthcareHealthcare Municipal buildingsMunicipal buildings
147、Bangladesh n/a10 n/a Brazil n/a n/a Chile n/a n/a Colombia n/a n/a Egypt n/a n/a India n/a n/a Indonesia n/a n/a Malaysia n/a n/a Mexico n/a n/a Morocco n/a n/a Nigeria n/a n/a Pakistan n/a n/a South Africa n/a n/a Thailand n/a n/a Turkey n/a n/a 9 =high benefits,=medium benefits,=lower benefits.The
148、 highest priority use cases are shown with a grey background and a blue border.10 Note that we have assumed the environmental benefits generated by consumers to be negligible in comparison with industry sectors.Future value of mobile in emerging markets|24 Ref:698248491-273.6 Conclusions and recomme
149、ndations for policy makers Our modelling exercise suggests that it is possible to deliver additional mid-band infrastructure meeting demand for bespoke 5G industrial use cases at a cost of USD1.04.0 billion by country.To provide extended geographical coverage using low-band 5G,our modelling suggests
150、 a further USD0.30.7 billion investment(for a single network infrastructure).Economic(GDP)benefits in Scenario 1 are three to ten times higher than the incremental investment,and three to seven times in Scenario 2.While this implies that it is possible to achieve a benefit-to-cost ratio above 1,acti
151、ons from policy makers will be needed to promote 5G development and have the right conditions in place for 5G to make a significant contribution to the economy and to society.A summary of our recommendations to policymakers are provided in Figure 6.1 below.Figure 6.1:Recommendations from the study S
152、ource:Analysys Mason,2022 TypeType EnablerEnabler DescriptionDescription Supply side National 5G strategy Publish a holistic national roadmap for 5G implementation,detailing how 5G will be introduced to the market,the services that might be offered and timescales for any preparatory work to plan for
153、 spectrum release Encourage the public sector and industry bodies to assess how their services and end users can benefit from 5G connectivity Put in place an economy-wide 5G ready strategy to accelerate the pace for 5G transition Spectrum availability Prepare spectrum award processes to enable natio
154、nal MNOs to gain 5G licences in low,mid and high bands to support 5G deployment in different environments Consider trading off spectrum fees for deployment targets that meet connectivity policy objectives Ensure flexibility for MNOs to re-purpose spectrum licensed for previous generations of mobile
155、technology,to support greater spectrum efficiency and accelerated deployment from the latest generations of technology(i.e.4G/5G)Infrastructure build-out facilitation Amend or simplify procedures to streamline site upgrade procedures and to remove any bottlenecks in site planning,so to support rapid
156、 5G roll-out Ensure the fees to use public sites are orientated on a cost recovery basis Encourage an open environment in which MNOs can share infrastructure with other industries as needed(e.g.fibre networks used by utilities or alongside railways,public sites for towers)Consider appropriate policy
157、 measures to reduce the cost and accelerate the deployment of 5G(in particular in rural/underserved areas)Issue national-level guidelines to facilitate the acquisition of new macro sites and to accelerate small-cell deployments Future value of mobile in emerging markets|25 Ref:698248491-273.TypeType
158、 EnablerEnabler DescriptionDescription Streamline planning processes to avoid lengthy deployment delays Coverage Collaborate with MNOs to develop effective solutions for coverage in areas where commercially led solutions are not viable,including public funding where there is clear evidence of market
159、 failure(such as to reach the most remote locations)Consider offsetting fees(e.g.spectrum auction or recurring spectrum fees)against coverage commitments(e.g.indoors,in rural areas)and for funding of data capacity improvements where end user needs are not being met Energy efficiency Engage with MNOs
160、 to ensure that MNOs can deploy 5G networking solutions with high energy efficiency,to optimise power consumption and reduce operational costs FWA Include gigabit capable FWA as a complement to fibre as a means of achieving national broadband targets,especially in areas underserved by fixed infrastr
161、ucture Tax breaks Incentivise the roll-out of 5G infrastructure by offering tax credits,noting in its Regional Economic Outlook for Europe published in April 2021,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)advocated that governments give infrastructure investment a boost by providing temporary investment t
162、ax credits to accelerate investments,for example for digital and sustainable technologies Seek international benchmarks of possible approaches.For example,the Japanese government provided a 15%tax credit to organisations investing in and using 5G infrastructure(between April 2020 and end of March 20
163、22)Demand side Enterprise and industrial policies Give a prominent role to 5G as a key enabler of the digital transformation agenda of major vertical sectors(e.g.manufacturing,agriculture,healthcare,utilities)Provide clear guidelines on 5G deployment,and the importance and role played by 5G in deliv
164、ering different use cases Public sector Encourage public authorities to make 5G-specific investments(e.g.in next-generation connectivity plans)Encourage 5G use by the public sector,for example in municipal buildings(e.g.facilities management,provision of public services,maintenance of public spaces)
165、,and to support education and tourism Carbon abatement Promote the use of 5G-based solutions by vertical sectors Highlight the role 5G can play to support efforts to achieve environmental commitment roadmaps and zero net carbon emissions Targeted subsidies Allocate direct funds to further accelerate
166、 research and facilitate tests and trials between MNOs,suppliers and enterprises from multiple vertical sectors Offer subsidies to promote industry collaboration and the creation of a strong supply ecosystem,to support the development of 5G use cases,and to help stimulate demand for 5G-based solutions