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1、Japans missing piece ofclean powerJapan needs to unleash its massive untapped wind potential toaccelerate its power sector transition.Published date:18 May 2023Authors:Dave Jones,Uni Lee,Ardhi Arsala Rahmani1ContentsContents.1Executive Summary.2Chapter 1|Japans clean power struggle.4As G7 states gro
2、w wind,Japan falls behind.5Chapter 2|Wind is Japans missing puzzle piece.8Fresh wind pathways for Japan.8Chapter 3|Japans lagging wind ambition is holding back itself-and the G7.11G7s offshore wind ambitions compared.11Who is“predominantly decarbonised”in 2035?.12Supporting materials.14AboutThis rep
3、ort compares Japans current electricity plans to two new pathways that show moreambitious ways to decarbonise the electricity sector,and compares these to plans by fellowG7 countries.Highlights1%4%18%of Japans electricity wasproduced by wind in 2022.of the G7s proposedoffshore wind deploymentto 2030
4、 would be in Japan.share of offshore wind by2035 would put Japan ontrack for a 90%2decarbonised power sector.Executive SummaryUnleashing offshore windJapans game-changing opportunity to match the G7 clean powerambitions.The G7 leaders meet next week.Their climate and energy ministers have already la
5、id outgoals for offshore wind and solar power.It is Japans reluctance to step up onwindespecially offshore windthat is preventing itself from setting its sights on adecarbonised power sector.01Japan has the lowest share of cleanelectricity of any G7 countryIn 2022,Japan got 29%of its electricity fro
6、m clean sourcesthe lowest ofany G7 countryand still 71%from fossil fuels.Japan also has the highestshare(33%)of coal generation of any G7 country.In 2022,wind generated1%of Japans electricity;for the rest of the G7,wind power generated 11%of total electricity production.Wind accounted for more than
7、10%ofelectricity generation in the United States,and more than 20%in bothGermany and the United Kingdom in 2022.02Offshore wind is the biggest gap tounlock a decarbonised power sectorTwo authoritative new pathways have been published this year.TheBerkeley Labs report forecasts Japan to achieve 90%de
8、carbonisedelectricity by 2035,while the Renewable Energy Institutes(REI)shows 80%renewables electricity alone by 2035.Offshore wind is the biggest gapbetween these pathways and Japans current electricity plan.Berkeleyforecasts it can supply 18%of Japans electricity by 2035,but Japan is3currently pla
9、nning for only 5%wind by 2030,for onshore and offshorecombined.03Japans lagging wind ambition isholding back itself-and the G7In the most recent communiqu,G7 Climate,Energy and EnvironmentMinisters laid out that they would build 150 GW of new offshore wind by2030.Although Japan has plans to award co
10、ntracts to 10 GW prior to 2030,its current plans only expect an operational capacity of 5.7 GW by then.This means Japans operational offshore wind is projected to be just 4%ofthe collective G7 target by 2030.It is also only a little over 1%of the 392GW theoretical potential of offshore wind power in
11、 the country.Japan is intalks about how much capacity should be contracted by 2040,but there isstill uncertainty because it could be as little as 30 GW or as much as 45GWand this is also still below the theoretical wind potential.“The G7s announcement that it will build 150 GW of offshore wind highl
12、ightsjust how far Japan has fallen behind on the electricity transition.If Japanshowed the same confidence in offshore wind that other G7 countries currentlyare,then Japan would be able to align with the G7 premise of 2035decarbonised electricity.Wind and solar are the biggest and best tools in thet
13、oolbox for reducing emissions this decade,and the world is looking at the G7to show leadership for how quickly this transition can happen.”Dave JonesHead of Data Insights,Ember4Chapter 1Japans clean power struggleClean power performance has been underwhelming in Japan.10%ofelectricity comes from sol
14、ar,but less than 1%from wind in 2022.As it presides over this years G7 leadership,Japan is facing a problem:its peers are goingfull steam on the electricity transition and want to reflect that in the G7s outlook,but Japanis lagging and therefore is holding back overall ambition of the G7.The latest
15、generation data shows Japans clean electricity lags in last place,with only 29%ofits electricity from clean sources and still 71%from fossil fuels.Japan also has the highestlevel of coal generation of any G7 country(33%in 2022),for the fourth consecutive yearsince it overtook Germany in 2019.5As G7
16、states grow wind,Japan falls behindAlthough Japan has made efforts in expanding solar by going from almost zero to 10%of itselectricity mix in the last decade,Japans wind has not fared as well.In 2022,wind generatedless than 1%of Japans electricity.For the rest of the G7,wind power has risen to 11%o
17、ftotal electricity production and shown an increasingly more important role than solar,withover twice the electricity coming from wind than solar in 2022.6In 2022,wind accounted for more than 10%of electricity generation in the United States,andmore than 20%in both Germany and the United Kingdom.The
18、 second lowest wind performerwas Canada at 6%.But Japan with just 1%of its electricity from wind is a clear outlier in theG7.78Chapter 2Wind is Japans missing puzzlepieceUnleashing wind potential could boost Japans share of clean power to90%by 2035.Japans current clean power target for 2030 is outli
19、ned in its 6th Strategic Energy Plan.According to the plan,Japan aims to reach 59%of its electricity from clean power by 2030,with by far the largest component of that coming from a return to service of closed nuclearplants and a build programme for new nuclear plants.However,wind is envisaged to pr
20、oduce only 5%of Japans electricity in 2030.Despite havinga longer coastline than any G7 country except Canada,the plan includes only 5.7 GW ofoffshore wind capacity.Yet,this figure is only a little over 1%of the roughly 392 GWtheoretical potential offshore wind power estimated by Japans Ministry of
21、the Environment.Fresh wind pathways for JapanThis year,two studies have been released that show pathways towards a predominantlydecarbonised electricity system by 2035.These are“The 2035 Japan Report:Plummeting Costs of Solar,Wind,and Batteries CanAccelerate Japans Clean and Independent Electricity
22、Future”from the Lawrence BerkeleyNational Laboratory and“Proposal for the 2035 Energy Mix:Toward Decarbonizing Electricitywith Renewable Energy”from the Renewable Energy Institute(REI).9The pathways forecast that clean power growthled by wind and solarwill allow Japanselectricity to largely decarbon
23、ise by 2035.The Berkeley Labs report forecasts Japan toachieve 90%decarbonised electricity by 2035,while the REI shows 80%.The two studies scenarios are advances upon Japans 6th Strategic Energy Plan which onlyexpects 59%of electricity decarbonised by 2030.With a solar share target of up to 16%,Japa
24、ns current energy plans ambition for wind is only one third that of solar.Despite suchmassive wind potential that could be unlocked,Japans plan has unfortunately continued toleave plenty of room for coal generation in 2030,with a share of 19%.In the Berkeley Lab study,by 2035 solar generates 27%of J
25、apans electricity and windgenerates 26%.It is wind that is the biggest gap to Japans current electricity plan,andparticularly offshore wind,which Berkeley forecasts can supply 18%of Japans electricity.Interms of capacity,the Berkeley Lab scenario for 2035 suggests that wind could expand to 66GW if J
26、apan adds about 5 GW of wind capacity every year.Similarly,the REI study also suggests leading roles of solar and wind in its 2035 scenario.The difference is that this study shows a more optimistic view on solar,attributing close to40%of total electricity generation by 2035.That said,the REI scenari
27、o still envisions a largerrole for wind,which would account for 20%of Japans total power production by 2035.Although the share of winds expected generation was not broken down between onshore10and offshore,the REI study calls for offshore capacity to reach 25.4 GW by 2035.That is farmore than the 5.
28、7 GW for 2030 written into the 6th Strategic Energy Plan.11Chapter 3Japans lagging wind ambition isholding back itself-and the G7Japan should step up on windespecially offshore windto back the G7ambition for decarbonised power by 2035.Later this week,the G7 leaders will meet to agree the final wordi
29、ng to their latest text.Themost recent communiqu by G7 Climate,Energy and Environment Ministers has already laidout that they would build 150 GW of new offshore wind by 2030.“The G7 contributes to expanding renewable energy globally and bringing down costs bystrengthening capacity including through
30、a collective increase in offshore wind capacity of150 GW by 2030 based on each countrys existing targets and a collective increase of solarPV to more than 1TW by 2030 estimated by the IEA and IRENA through means such aseach countrys existing targets or policy measures.”G7s offshore wind ambitions co
31、mparedJapans 6th Strategic Energy Plan plans to build only 5.7 GW of offshore wind by 2030.Thats just 4%of the G7 total,even though Japan had 17%of the electricity fossil generationof the G7 in 2022.Prior to this plan in 2020,10 GW for 2030 was touted in Japans Vision forOffshore Wind Power Industry
32、,but even that would only be 7%of the G7 total.The United Kingdom has the highest ambition for offshore wind,aiming to achieve 50 GW by2030(British Energy Security Strategy,April 2022),while the United States aims to install 30GW of offshore wind(Biden Administration,March 2021).Germany also aims to
33、 install 30GW of offshore wind power by 2030(Offshore wind power law,July 2022).12Who is“predominantly decarbonised”in2035?G7 leaders agreed last year to“commit to a goal of achieving predominantly decarbonisedelectricity sectors by 2035”.But of course,the word“predominantly”is highly contested.For
34、the UK,US,Canada and Germany it means 100%.All four countries have already madecommitments to this effect.That leaves France,which is already 90%clean power due to itslarge nuclear fleet,and Italy,which has committed to phase out coal by 2025,but is yet topublish a plan to replace gas with clean pow
35、er.13For Japan,the Berkeley Lab study shows that it has the potential to raise its clean powerambitions by unleashing offshore windalongside some onshore wind and enhanced solarwhich will put Japan on track to reach 90%decarbonised power by 2035.14Supporting materialsAcknowledgementsContributorsRini
36、 Sucahyo,Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart,Ye Yuan,Claire Kaelin,Hannah Broadbent,Matt EwenHeader imageOffshore wind turbine generating electricity.Credit:Trygve Finkelsen/Alamy Stock Photo Ember,2023Published under a Creative Commons ShareAlike Attribution Licence(CC BY-SA 4.0).You are actively encouragedto share and adapt the report,but you must credit the authors and title,and you must share any material youcreate under the same licence.