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1、REPORTGlobal Live-Work-Shop ReportCBRE RESEARCHSEPTEMBER 2023Four Key Trends Driving European RetailFuture Cities2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European RetailIn the first survey of its kind,CBRE polled more than 20,000 people worldwide last year from baby boomers
2、to Gen Zers to determine how they will live,work and shop in the future and how this will impact the real estate sector.Survey results are presented in our Global Live-Work-Shop Report.This report examines four key retail trends that emerged from our 7,400 Europe-based respondents.Introduction3CBRE
3、RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European RetailKey FindingsEuropean consumers prefer to shop in-store Europeans turn to discounters in challenging timesEmerging e-commerce markets expect free returnsSpain and the Nordics lead ESG action 01020304European consumers prefer t
4、o shop in-store015CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European RetailCBRE asked consumers about their shopping preferences in terms of in-store versus online.Respondents were asked about their preferences across 10 key goods types,encompassing both essential and non-esse
5、ntial retail.European respondents expressed a stronger preference for in-store shopping than respondents in any other region.While 60%of European respondents prefer in-store shopping,for North America and Asia the figures are 56%and 53%,respectively.The results therefore suggest a greater degree of
6、resilience for physical retail in Europe than in other regions.Southern European markets reported the strongest preference for in-store shopping,with 65%of respondents in both Spain and Italy preferring to shop in-store.Perhaps counterintuitively,the Netherlands and France have a higher percentage o
7、f respondents preferring in-store shopping than the European average,despite being among Europes most developed e-commerce markets.This demonstrates that even in developed e-commerce markets,consumers are keen to return to physical retail shopping following the ending of lockdown restrictions.Resili
8、ence expected in European store-based retailThe results of the survey suggest that asset managers with a global retail remit should expect the greatest degree of resilience in Europe,and particularly in Southern European markets.Preference for in-store shopping higher than in North America or AsiaSo
9、urce:CBRE Research,Global Live-Work-Shop ReportFigure 1:Percentage of consumers that prefer to shop in-store,average across 10 key goods types0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%UKAsiaGermanyNordicsNorth AmericaGlobalEuropeFranceNetherlandsItalySpainEuropeans turn to discounters in challenging times027CBRE RESEA
10、RCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European Retail*Most selected optionSource:CBRE Research,Global Live-Work-Shop ReportIn times of challenged consumer confidence and falling real incomes caused by high inflation,consumers adjust their spending patterns.We asked consumers in each
11、 market what actions they take when they are feeling less positive about their personal finances,with clear differences observed across both global regions,and among European markets.In Europe,the most commonly selected response was to buy the same amount of products,but from more discount brands.In
12、 North America and Asia,respondents selected dining out less and going on fewer holidays,respectively.While respondents in Germany,the Netherlands and Spain report turning to discounters when feeling less positive about finances,other European countries selected different options as their first choi
13、ce.Consumers in France and Italy report dining out less as their number one option in challenging times,while in the UK,respondents report going on fewer holidays.Discount retailers outperform in EuropeThe results correlate with the rapid expansion of discounters across Europe throughout 2023,both w
14、ithin established markets and in terms of expansion into new territories.While certain types of retailers have been rationalising their store portfolios,discounters stand out as a category of retailer which has thrived in recent times.CBRE expects discounters to continue to perform well,particularly
15、 in European markets.Buying from discount brands top of the agenda for European consumers in challenging timesFigure 2:When you are feeling less positive about your personal finances,how do your spending habits change?*I buy the same amount of products,but from more discount brands.Europe,Germany,Ne
16、therlands,SpainI dine out less.North America,France,ItalyI spend less on personal services,like haircut,massage etc.NordicsI go away on fewerholidays.Asia,UKEmerging e-commerce markets expect free returns039CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European RetailThe growth in
17、 online returns has become a significant challenge for retailers,who have come under pressure from a combination of buy,try,return culture and increased transport and logistics costs.In the UK,it is estimated that the average return costs a retailer 20 per parcel,with returns accounting for around 1
18、0%of a retailers supply chain costs.In response,major e-commerce and omnichannel retailers have started charging consumers for returns.While consumers in all markets reported a preference for free returns,consumers in Italy and Spain showed the highest propensity to refuse to shop from an e-commerce
19、 retailer if there is no free return,both in Europe and globally.Out of all the European markets surveyed in the Global Live-Work-Shop Report,Italy and Spain have the lowest e-commerce penetration rates,defined as the percentage of total retail sales happening online as opposed to through brick-and-
20、mortar.These rates stand at 9%and 11%for Italy and Spain respectively as of Q2 2023.This compares with 26%for the UK,the most developed European e-commerce market.Implementation of return fees should be delayed in Southern EuropeGiven the survey results,e-commerce and omnichannel retailers should co
21、nsider delaying the implementation of fees for returning items in the emerging markets of Italy and Spain,as doing so is likely to reduce the competitiveness of their offering in these markets.Italian and Spanish consumers less likely to shop online without free returnsSource:CBRE Research,Global Li
22、ve-Work-Shop ReportFigure 3:I will not shop from an e-commerce retailer if there is no free return Strongly agreeStrongly disagreeItalySpainNetherlandsGermanyNordicsUKFranceEuropeGlobalSpain and the Nordics lead ESG action0411CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Future CitiesFour Key Trends Driving European
23、RetailWith environmental and social considerations front-and-centre for both retailers and consumers,we asked whether consumers had recently undertaken eight common ESG-related actions.These included trying to consume less,buying second-hand items,renting instead of purchasing,buying from independen
24、t,locally sourced or eco-friendly brands,shopping less frequently online to mitigate packaging waste and not shopping with a particular brand because of its environmental or social stance.Spain and the Nordics scored highest,with an average of 3.6 actions taken.In the Nordics,60%of consumers report
25、buying second-hand items,significantly higher than the European or global averages,at 49%and 45%,respectively.Spanish consumers,meanwhile,are more likely to have purchased more from smaller or independent brands,as well as purchasing more locally sourced or produced products,with 68%of Spanish respo
26、ndents reporting having undertaken the latter action.Tenant mix should align with consumers ESG preferencesBased on the survey results,asset owners and managers should consider curating their tenant mix to align with consumers ESG preferences in each market.In the Nordics,this could entail circular
27、boutiques,where second-hand clothes are upcycled and resold,with a percentage of profits going to charitable causes.In Spain,the tenant mix should include independent brands,and retailers which source local produce.Spain and the Nordics have highest participation rates across eight ESG-related actio
28、nsSource:CBRE Research,Global Live-Work-Shop ReportFigure 4:Average number of ESG-related actions taken in the past six months01234NetherlandsGermanyItalyEuropeUKFranceNordicsSpain Copyright 2023.All rights reserved.This report has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evi
29、dence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies,many of which are beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or
30、 projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBREs current views to later be incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opi
31、nions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs securities or of the performance of any other companys securities.You should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased
32、on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,
33、completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.Jos TrompGlobal Head of Data IntelligenceHead of Research&Data Intelligence Continental EJennet SiebritsExecutive DirectorHead of UK R Research LeadershipRichard Barkham,Ph.D.Global Chief EconomistHead of Global&Americas RHenry Chin,Ph.D.Gl
34、obal Head of Investor Thought LeadershipHead of Research Asia PJulie WhelanGlobal Head of Occupier Thought Leadership&Research CAuthorsTasos VezyridisExecutive DirectorHead of Thought Leadership for E Miranda BotcherbyDirectorEuropean Research Alex OzgaSenior AnalystEuropean R BusinessChris GardenerManaging DirectorCapital Markets Head of European RDavid CloseExecutive DirectorEuropean RJose Luis MartinSenior DirectorEuropean R Contacts