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1、October 17,2017ACTIVATE TECH&MEDIA OUTLOOK 1Welcome to Activates Tech and Media Outlook 2018 2018 will be a pivotal year for technology and media businesses;these are the major forces that will create growth opportunities and reshape companies in the year ahead.Each year,as part of the Wall Street J
2、ournal D.Live Conference,we take a deep dive into some of the major consumer trends,technology innovations,and industry dynamics that will predict what is going to happen next and what it will mean.We are excited to share our third annual Outlook,and hope you will enjoy it for many of its surprising
3、 and unexpected insights.From the trajectory of smart speakers,to the future of reality computing(AR/VR),to the global eCommerce business,weve uncovered key insights and likely trends.There is also an extensive evaluation of the creators who drive billions of web video views,a hard look at the news
4、business,and a view into the likely price wars ahead in streaming video.Forecasts include how consumers will spend their tech and media time,the next wave of internet and media revenues,and the rise of Super Users who will be critical to acquire and retain.On each slide you will find extensive analy
5、sis,drawing on proprietary industry research and large-scale surveys representing the U.S.population.We know youll find the results both provocative and useful,and look forward to a lively discussion.Lets see where tech and media are headed!The Activate Team 2The Most Important Insights for Tech and
6、 Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers
7、and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage
8、Users124PAGE 3The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainmen
9、t to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In
10、 an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGECONSUMER1.Consumer Internet and Media Revenues include radio,recorded music,magazine publishing,newspaper publishing,video games,filmed entertainment,book publishing,TV subscription and licensing fees,Internet access,digital advertisi
11、ng,and traditional advertising on these platforms.Sources:Activate analysis,eMarketer,GroupM,IBISWorld,IFPI,International Monetary Fund,NewZoo,PricewaterhouseCoopers,RBC,World Bank,ZenithOptimediaWe forecast that over the next four years,global Internet and media revenues will grow by approximately$
12、300 billion,continuing to outpace GDP growth 4CONSUMER INTERNET AND MEDIA REVENUES1,GLOBAL,2017E-2021E,USD2017E2021E$1.7T$2.0T$302BGROWTH DOLLARSCAGR 4.1%Global GDP CAGR:3%FORECASTACTIVATECONSUMER1.Consumer Internet and Media Revenues include radio,recorded music,magazine publishing,newspaper publis
13、hing,video games,filmed entertainment,book publishing,TV subscription and licensing fees,Internet access,digital advertising,and traditional advertising on these platforms.2.Includes fixed broadband,wireless,and mobile Internet access.Sources:Activate analysis,eMarketer,GroupM,IBISWorld,IFPI,Interna
14、tional Monetary Fund,NewZoo,PricewaterhouseCoopers,RBC,World Bank,ZenithOptimedia2017E2021E$1.7T$2.0T$128B$66B$108BCAGR 2.3%CAGR 5.7%CAGR 4.7%39%31%30%37%31%32%Ad revenueCost of Internet access2Paid contentAccess will lead revenue growth for tech and media companies 5CONSUMER INTERNET AND MEDIA REVE
15、NUE GROWTH BY SEGMENT1,GLOBAL,2017E-2021E,USDFORECASTACTIVATECONSUMER1.Consumer Internet and Media Revenues include radio,recorded music,magazine publishing,newspaper publishing,video games,filmed entertainment,book publishing,TV subscription and licensing fees,Internet access,digital advertising,an
16、d traditional advertising on these platforms.Sources:Activate analysis,eMarketer,GroupM,IBISWorld,IFPI,International Monetary Fund,NewZoo,PricewaterhouseCoopers,RBC,World Bank,ZenithOptimedia2017E2021E$165B$108B$29BCAGR 4.7%CAGR 4.3%CAGR 2.1%19%31%50%18%31%51%Ad revenueSubscription revenueSingle tra
17、nsactionsSubscription will be the primary revenue model,accounting for over half of consumer Internet and media growth 6CONSUMER INTERNET AND MEDIA REVENUE GROWTH BY REVENUE MODEL1,GLOBAL,2017E-2021E,USDFORECASTACTIVATE$1.7T$2.0T 7The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in
18、 Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule We
19、b Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGECONSUMERNote:Beha
20、viors averaged over 7 days.1.Other includes browsing websites,offline reading,cinema,out-of-home,etc.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=1,003),comScore,eMarketer,Gallup,GWI,IAB,National Sleep Foundation,Nielsen,Pew Research,U.S.Bureau of Labor StatisticsWORK
21、&WORK RELATED5:136:557:06SLEEPOTHER NON-WORK ACTIVITIES cooking&housework,personal&household care,leisure,fitness,community&other activities,eating&drinkingMEDIA AND CONSUMER TECH ACTIVITY video,audio,social media (including messaging),gaming,other1AVERAGE DAY BY ACTIVITY PER ADULT(AGE 18+),U.S.,201
22、6,HOURS:MINUTESOur analysis shows that multi-tasking means that there are 31 hours a day for the average American;12 hours are spent consuming tech and media 85:052:091:171:062:2712:04CONSUMER 9On average,video captures the largest share of attention of the daily 12 hours of tech and media consumpti
23、onDAILY MEDIA ATTENTION PER ADULT(AGE 18+),U.S.,2016,15-MINUTE INTERVALSA TYPICAL 12:04-HOUR MEDIA DAY:48 X 15-MINUTE INTERVALSVIDEOSOCIAL MEDIA (INCL.MESSAGING)GAMINGOTHER1AUDIONote:Behaviors averaged over 7 days.1.Other includes browsing websites,offline reading,cinema,out-of-home,etc.Sources:Acti
24、vate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=1,003),comScore,eMarketer,Gallup,GWI,IAB,National Sleep Foundation,Nielsen,Pew Research,U.S.Bureau of Labor StatisticsCONSUMERSMART SPEAKERS will drive audio listening (and video consumption for units with screens)SELF DRIVING CARS wil
25、l allow for more multitasking across the board 10By 2021,Americans will spend an additional 18 minutes with tech and media dailyDAILY HOURS SPENT PER ADULT(AGE 18+),U.S.,2017E-2021E,HOURS:MINUTES2017E2021ECAGR=0.6%VideoOther14100.4%1.6%Flat0.2%Social Media12:2812:462.6%GamingFURTHER EXPANSION DRIVER
26、SAudio2:381:212:081:155:062:421:262:081:235:07FORECASTACTIVATENote:Behaviors averaged over 7 days.1.Other includes browsing websites,offline reading,cinema,out-of-home,etc.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=1,003),comScore,eMarketer,Gallup,GWI,IAB,National S
27、leep Foundation,Nielsen,Pew Research,U.S.Bureau of Labor StatisticsCONSUMER 11New services continue to drive adoption addressing new user behaviors such as smart speakers and mobile videoTOP 100 APPS BY DOWNLOADS,U.S.,SEP 2016-AUG 2017,%TOP 100 Z CAMERA:FILTER PHOTO EDITORALREADY IN THE TOP 100 THE
28、YEAR BEFOREPOWER SECURITY-ANTIVIRUS CLEANFAST CLEANERS PHOTO EDITORBRIGHTEST FLASHLIGHT LEDCM LAUNCHERFLIPPGO LAUNCHER EXKODIGOOGLE DUOKIKALIVE.LYLIVE.MEOUR DAILY BREADPOSHMARKTOP BUZZTUBI TVTURBO CLEANERAMAZON ALEXAAMAZON MUSICCHOICES STORIES YOU PLAYDIRECTVHOOKEDMARCO POLOPAPER IOPAYPALUBER EATSXF
29、INITYPICSART PHOTO STUDIOAIRBNBAUDIBLECARTWHEELGOOGLE SHEETSHOTSPOT SHIELDHOUSEPARTYNBA LIVE MOBILEREMIND:SAFE CLASSROOM COMMUNICATIONSARAHAHSQUARE CASHVENMOGOOGLE SLIDESNEWiOS ONLYBOTHANDROID GOOGLE PLAY ONLY77%70%23%30%NEWSources:Activate analysis,AppAnnie,Apple App Store,Google P 12The Most Impor
30、tant Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing
31、Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Loo
32、k to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGESUPER USERSTargeting Super Users will be critical to the growth strategies of all tech and media companies 13 Tech and media companies can learn a great deal from the behavior of Super Users in their sector.Super Users are in the vanguard of behavior and usage S
33、uper User behaviors give clues to how overall consumer behavior will evolve and inform how tech and media businesses acquire and engage users Acquiring,growing,and retaining Super Users will be a key pillar of the strategies of any tech and media companySUPER USERSSource:Activate analysisSUPER USERS
34、Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=3,515)Video Super Users account for a disproportionate amount of time and also over-index on spend 1466%39%34%61%VIDEO TIME AND SPEND RELATIVE TO SHARE OF USERS,U.S.,2017,%TOTALShare of Time SpentShare of Consumer SpendTop
35、25%of Users(4.5+hours of daily video attention)All Other UsersSUPER USERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406)Sports Super Fans follow the same trend as other video Super Users 1539%73%61%27%Share of UsersShare of Time SpentSports Super Fans(10+hours of
36、weekly viewing)All Other UsersSPORTS FANS AND TIME SPENT RELATIVE TO SHARE OF USERS,U.S.,2017,%TOTALSUPER USERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,645)In audio,Super Users account for almost half of all consumer spend 1653%36%47%64%Share of Time SpentShare
37、of Consumer SpendTop 25%of Users(3+hours of daily audio attention)All Other UsersAUDIO TIME AND SPEND RELATIVE TO SHARE OF USERS,U.S.,2017,%TOTALSUPER USERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,645)In video games,the curve is even steeper;Super Users are the
38、core of gaming 17TIME SPEND:Top 25%of gamers generate 70%of play timeGAMING CONSUMER SPEND RELATIVE TO SHARE OF USERS,U.S.,2017,%TOTAL63%25%Share of Consumer Spend100%0%Super GamersCasual GamersShare of Users(0 100%)DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMER SPEND 18The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2
39、018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media B
40、rands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAG
41、ESMART SPEAKERSNote:Positioning represents either product announcement or launch date.Sources:Activate analysis,Company press releases,Press reportsThe smart speaker battles are not really about the device;the battles began in 2014 and escalated over the last two years 017U.S.GLOBAL?LINGL
42、ONG DINGDONGGENIE X1 XIAOWEI ALICE XIAOYU(LITTLE FISH)CLOVA JD.COMBAIDULINEXIAOMIMI AI SAMSUNGBIXBY YANDEXLOOKHOMEDOTHOMEPODSHOWSIRIECHOALEXACORTANAGOOGLE ASSISTANTPARTNERSHIP ALEXA CORTANASONOS ONEFACEBOOK MBIXBY TENCENTALIBABANAVERKAKAO MINIKAKAOMINIMAXSMART SPEAKERS1.Radio,TV,and computer measure
43、d as share of U.S.households.Smartphone and Internet measured as share of U.S.population.Sources:Activate analysis,U.S.Census Bureau,World BankWe forecast that smart speaker adoption is likely to be faster than any other consumer device;however sales will not grow to the sky 20Years Since Commercial
44、 Introduction to U.S.Market1 Percent Adoption by U.S.Population20SMART SPEAKER PENETRATION,U.S.,YEARS FROM INCEPTION,%POPULATION515SMARTPHONETVRADIOINTERNETCOMPUTERFORECASTACTIVATE010SMART SPEAKER0%25%50%SMART SPEAKERSSources:Activate analysis,Business Insider,Consumer Intelligence Research Partners
45、,Edison Research,eMarketer,Evercore,KGI Securities,MIDiA,Morgan Stanley,Voicebot.aiIn fact,we forecast that device sales are likely to peak as digital assistants with conversational interfaces break free from the smart speaker 21SMART SPEAKER UNIT SALES,U.S.,2016-2021E,MILLION UNITS 20162017E2018E20
46、19E2020E2021E SMART SPEAKERSALTERNATIVE ACCESS TO VOICE will be embedded throughout the home via smart home devices,removing the need for a speaker SLOWDOWN FACTORSLONGER REFRESH CYCLES for smart speakers compared to smartphones,which refresh roughly every 30 months8M25M39M41M37M31MSINGLE USE DEVICE
47、S akin to smart speakers(e.g.standalone GPS devices,dedicated e-readers,etc.)exhibited comparable declines in unit salesFORECASTACTIVATESMART SPEAKERSBYPASSING DOMINANT DEVICES/OSSource:Activate analysisSearch Social eCommerce Media Communications/Telephony The smart speaker battles are really the d
48、igital assistant war;the stakes are high 22TECHNOLOGY LAYERS TO ACCESS WEB SERVICESMOBILE/PCsWEB SERVICESDIGITAL ASSISTANTEMBEDDED VOICE DEVICES The true objective of each of the tech companies is to own the digital assistant via the conversational interface creating a layer between the consumer and
49、 other services(e.g.search,social,communications,media,hardware)Allowing someone else to own the dominant digital assistant creates an existential threat for the major technology companies To be relevant in the early stages of the digital assistant battle,each of the tech companies has started with
50、a dedicated smart speaker essentially a trojan horse to deliver AI into the home Ultimately,we expect that the hardware will become a commodity,and the digital assistant will be ubiquitous through a broad set of devices VOICE&TEXTALEXAGOOGLE ASSISTANTFACEBOOK MCORTANASIRI?SMART SPEAKERSSource:Activa
51、te analysisMost of the digital assistants are already messaging bots enabled through either a voice or text conversational interface 23VIRTUAL ASSISTANCE IN MESSAGINGSEARCH VIA DIGITAL ASSISTANTDIGITAL ASSISTANCE IN MESSAGING CONVERSATIONDigital assistants on mobile use familiar messaging interfaces
52、 to build user comfort,while capturing valuable data and improving conversational understandingDigital assistants also provide relevant and timely suggestions mid-conversationUsers can interact with digital assistants either through voice or text,and on multiple mobile platformsSMART SPEAKERS1.Month
53、ly active users on each platform,though none currently have digital assistants.2.Amazon Alexa is exclusive to Alexa-only devices and does not include Cortana integration.Sources:Activate analysis,eMarketer,Facebook,Google,IHS,Microsoft,Ovum,RBC,SNL Kagan,Strategy Analytics,TechRepublic,Voicebot.aiWe
54、 forecast that digital assistants will reach escape velocity as they are embedded in messaging and available across the largest population of devices 24VOICE ASSISTANT INSTALL BASE ON ACTIVE DEVICES,GLOBAL,2016-2021E,MILLIONSActive Voice-Enabled Devices03006009001,20020162017E2018E2019E2020E2021E1,5
55、002,5003,5003.3BAMAZON ALEXA2BIXBYSIRICHINESE ASSISTANTSGOOGLE NOW/ASSISTANTCORTANA2.6B1.2BWECHAT?1WHATSAPP?13.2BFACEBOOK?10.3B0.9B1.0B1.1B1.0BFORECASTACTIVATESMART SPEAKERS1.Excludes office and enterprise software.Sources:Activate analysis,Company financialseCommerce/Product DiscoverySearchSocialDe
56、vices/Software/OS89%27%Each of the tech companies views owning their digital assistant as part of their manifest destiny protecting their core and tapping into new growth dollars 25CORE BUSINESS SHARE OF REVENUE,GLOBAL,2016,%REVENUE=Core focus share of total revenues82%90%CORE FOCUSCORE FOCUS97%1 SI
57、RI ALEXACORTANAGOOGLE ASSISTANTFACEBOOK MSMART SPEAKERSSales of high-end devices will continue but we forecast that the cost of accessing a digital assistant will head to zero20017 26Fully featured standalone Dot with AlexaENTRY PRICE POINTS FOR DIGITAL ASSISTANT-ENABLED DEVICES,U.S.,2014
58、-2017,USD$40$50$50$180Google Assistant launches on iPhoneFREESources:Activate analysis,Amazon,GoogleSMART SPEAKERS1.Includes Kinect and other devices.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Left:n=4,900;Right:n=820)13%11%19%4%25%23%Today,17 percent of US consumers
59、own a smart speaker;the great majority are Amazon Echo 27SHARE OF SMART SPEAKER OWNERS,U.S.,2017,%POPULATIONSMART SPEAKER INSTALL BASE BY MODEL,U.S.,2017,%OWNERSOWNERS 17%NON-OWNERS 83%AMAZON ECHOAMAZON ECHO DOTOTHER1AMAZON ECHO SHOWAMAZON ECHO TAPGOOGLE HOMEALEXA-ENABLED FIRE STICKAMAZON ECHO LOOK4
60、%1%SMART SPEAKERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=820),U.S.Census BureauAlready,over a quarter of existing smart speaker owners say that they are using more than one device;it is likely that the average U.S.Smart Speaker Household will have 2.4 devices 28M
61、ultiple26%Single74%20172021E2.41.750%of owners of multiple smart speakers bought speakers to put in additional roomsAVERAGE DEVICE PER SMART SPEAKER HOUSEHOLD,U.S.,2017-2021ENUMBER OF SMART SPEAKERS OWNED,U.S.,2017,%OWNERSFORECASTACTIVATESMART SPEAKERS1.Excluding weather and news.Sources:Activate an
62、alysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=820)The majority of owners(even Super Users)primarily use smart speakers for music and a small set of portal functions 2918%26%22%33%38%45%48%38%40%42%59%65%66%74%SUPER USER(Uses smart speaker at least 3x a day)AVERAGE USERPORTAL FUNCTIONSTOP
63、 WEEKLY USE CASES,U.S.,2017,%OWNERSPlay MusicGeneral Questions1Get WeatherAlarm TimersNewsGetting DirectionsChecking TimeSMART SPEAKERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=820),Amazon,Voicebot.aiOur research shows that 65 percent of users have not yet enabled
64、a third-party skill;today,skill discovery is difficult 30ALEXA SKILLS BY CATEGORY,OCT 2017,%TOTALI havent enabled a skillMusic&Radio skillNews skillGame or Trivia skillPodcast skillShopping skillWeather skillALEXA NEW SKILL ENABLEMENT BY OWNER,U.S.,OCT 2017,%OWNERS6%4%5%5%4%65%1%1%2%2%2%2%2%3%3%3%4%
65、7%8%8%13%14%23%GAMES,TRIVIA,ACCESSORIESNEWSEDUCATION/REFERENCENOVELTY&HUMORMUSIC&AUDIOLIFESTYLEPRODUCTIVITYTRAVEL&TRANSPORTATIONSMART HOMEWEATHERBUSINESS&FINANCEFOOD&DRINKHEALTH&FITNESSSPORTSLOCALMOVIES&TVOTHER1%25,000+ALEXA SKILLS11%SMART SPEAKERSSource:Activate analysisSkill usage is likely to be
66、native to each users device;“always listening”features will be baked into practically every major consumer electronics product 31PERSONAL COMPUTERSSMART ACCESSORIESMOBILE PHONESAPPLIANCESTELEVISIONSAUTOMOBILESPCs now integrate field microphones for voice activation,which will likely become a standar
67、d feature on all computers Audio equipment manufacturers now preload Google Assistant onto smart headphones demonstrating the trend of decoupling digital assistants from devicesAlexa is now available as the default voice assistant in a mobile device competing with Google Assistant on its native plat
68、form A number of home appliances currently work in conjunction with smart speakers,and OEMs will likely begin natively integrating digital assistantsDigital assistants are currently available on TVs through OTT boxes and dongles,but deep integration of digital assistance will likely occur(including
69、Bixby on Samsung TVs)Automobile manufacturers currently integrate basic voice assistance and will likely go deeper with integrationAREAS OF NATIVE INTEGRATION FOR DIGITAL ASSISTANT BEYOND THE SMART SPEAKERLenovo Yoga 920Google AssistantBose QC35 II Moto x4TODAYNEAR FUTURESMART SPEAKERSSource:Activat
70、e analysisRapid advancements in voice technology,including improved recognition of intonation and voiceprint as a method of identification will greatly enhance the user experienceA scaled attack that hacks and releases user data and conversations captured through smart speakers could prove disastrou
71、s for voice assistanceReaching global scale and adoption will require expansion into growth markets(e.g.Alexa seeing faster growth in non-English speaking countries)Open access to new and crowd-sourced data will greatly enhance the user experience,and could potentially level the playing field for as
72、sistants that are starved for dataGoogle Assistant and Alexa are openly accessible to third-party developers and OEMs,who in turn have integrated and distributed these digital assistants across a wide range of devicesWhat could change the rules of the game in digital assistants/smart speakers?32SECU
73、RITY BREACHACCELERATION OF AIPLATFORM PORTABILITYSCALING GLOBALLYCROWD-SOURCED DATAPOTENTIAL GAME CHANGERSGovernment regulation could place limits on platform control and potentially stifle expansion of voice assistance,similar to what has occurred with Googles antitrust case with the EUREGULATION 3
74、3The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next
75、 Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Vo
76、ice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGEREALITY COMPUTINGThere is a great deal of hype and confusion about Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality 34Mediated RealitySpatial ComputingDigital RealityTransmogrified RealityHolographic DevicesImmersive DevicesRV(Reality-Virtuality)ContinuumImm
77、ersive ComputingMerged RealityAugmented VirtualityExtended RealityCG Virtual RealityHolographic ComputingCinematic RealityMixed Reality VideoHyper RealityDiminished Reality Mixed Reality11.MR(Mixed Reality):sometimes used to refer to more“immersive”AR.However,this term has been defined inconsistentl
78、y between different tech and media companies,recently even being used to describe VR.Sources:Activate analysis,“Karl Guttag on Technology”blog,TechCrunch,The Verge REALITY COMPUTING Fully immerses user in a virtual or digital environment Allows users to explore imaginary worlds Enables interactive g
79、aming Creates a new way of viewing 360-degree video and live events Renders 3D visual representations of places,people,and objects Digitally overlays visuals and information onto the physical world through spatial mapping Enhances the space by superimposing digital information and notifications Allo
80、ws users to watch videos and play games directly in their field of view,without the need for a physical screen Seamlessly integrates digital and physical worlds to enable new functionalities Guides decisions and actions through Artificial Intelligence(AI)/machine learning and data contextualization
81、Integrates emerging technologies to create“everywhere screens,”enhance collaboration,and augment enterprise capabilities across industriesReality Computing enables rich,immersive experiences that will lead to the next big computing platform 35REALITY COMPUTINGTODAYTOMORROWVR (VIRTUAL REALITY)AR (AUG
82、MENTED REALITY)THE NEXT BIG COMPUTING PLATFORMIKEA PLACEADR1FTSource:Activate analysisREALITY COMPUTING“EVERYWHERE SCREENS”COLLABORATIONReality Computing is primarily entertainment today,but will become the next big computing platform,incorporating sophisticated technology 361.6DoF(6 degrees of free
83、dom,which includes x,y,z,roll,pitch,yaw)tracking enabled by SLAM(simultaneous location and mapping).2.Internet of Things will provide contextual data on machines and appliances,enabling repairs and testing in enterprise settings as well as smart homes.3.Increased bandwidth will enable multiple digit
84、al screens with simultaneous video and information without lag.MESSAGING/SOCIALCASUAL GAMINGVIRTUAL ASSISTANTCONSOLE GAMINGTESTING/REPAIRS+5G3+Spatial Mapping1+AI+IoT Data2Sources:Activate analysis,“Karl Guttag on Technology”blog,TechCrunch,The Verge AT-HOME SHOPPINGIKEA PLACEARISESNAPCHATPS VRREALI
85、TY COMPUTING TOMORROW Incorporates emerging technology to become the next big computing platformREALITY COMPUTING TODAY Primarily an entertainment experienceREALITY COMPUTING20162017E2018E2019E2020E2021EWe forecast that Reality Computing will be a$70 billion business by 2021 37CONSUMER AND ENTERPRIS
86、E SPEND ON VR/AR1,GLOBAL,2016-2021E,BILLIONS VR EnterpriseVR ConsumerAR EnterpriseAR ConsumerSources:Activate analysis,Amazon,Apple,Ars Technica,Canalys,Consumer Intelligence Research Partners,CNet,Credit Suisse,Digi-Capital,eMarketer,Gartner,Gizmodo,Goldman Sachs,Greenlight Insights,IDC,Merrill Lyn
87、ch,SquareTrade,Strategy Analytics,Superdata,TechCrunch,U.S.Census,Venture Beat,Vgchartz,Wall Street Journal,ZDNet$4B$6B$14B$24B$41B$71B6%16%66%12%1.Excluding advertising revenues,government military spending,and head-up displays(e.g.Tesla dashboard).2.Apps enabled by Apples ARKit(iPhone 6s and later
88、)and Googles ARCore(Galaxy S8,Pixel,and others expected in 2018).Augmented RealityVirtual RealityAR expected to gain a footing in enterprise before consumer adoption due to proven enterprise use cases,high prices,and bulky form factorAR available on over 400M smartphones today2FORECASTACTIVATEAR con
89、sumer revenue will begin to take off with the adoption of AR headsetsREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITYToday,VR is an innovative media,information,and entertainment mediumSource:Activate analysis 38MOVIESSPORTING EVENTSCONCERTSIMMERSIVE GAMINGOUT-OF-HOME ATTRACTIONSTRAVELEDUCATIONNEWSREALITY COMPUT
90、ING-AUGMENTED REALITYSources:Activate analysis,CB Insights,CrunchBase,Fast Company,The Verge 39Media and entertainment companies have invested in VR to create new forms of experiential contentLaunched the NYT VR app,allowing users to witness current events in a purely virtual environmentTransformed
91、Netflixs“Stranger Things”into an Emmy-nominated Virtual Reality experienceLaunched a Virtual Reality app for Samsung Gear VR,which allows subscribers to view exclusive,immersive contentWill release Fallout,Doom,and Skyrim as Virtual Reality games for the PS VRCreates animated Virtual Reality movies,
92、including the Daytime Emmy-winning“Invasion!”Enables VR storytelling through the creation of a VR-specific platform,original content,and a high quality VR cameraCaptures and streams live sporting events(e.g.NBA,NFL)and concerts,which are available on all VR devicesPublishes its own and third-party c
93、ontent through its distribution platform TransportREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITY$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4+gaming computer+gaming computer+PS4 Pro+Pixel+Galaxy S7201620171.Standalone VR does not require a phone,computer,console,or any external sensors or wires.Announced
94、by Vive and Oculus,and already exists in the form of Pico Goblin.2.Includes VR system,plus:low-end compatible PC(Vive&Oculus);PS4 Pro(PS VR);Samsung Galaxy S7(Gear VR);Pixel(Daydream View).3.Includes HTC Vive,Oculus Rift,PS VR,Samsung Gear,and Google Daydream View,plus all required controllers and s
95、ensors.4.Distribution of users who have tried VR;price includes any new hardware.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=210),A,Google,Superdata,TechCrunch,UploadVR,Wall Street JournalVR device companies are lowering prices to reach larger audiences 40AVERAGE PRI
96、CE OF VR,U.S.,Q2 2016-Q3 2018E,$1,000$800$600$400$200$100$5078%57%30%13%4%2%1%Price PointOF THOSE WHO HAVE TRIED VR,CUMULATIVE%WHO WOULD CONSIDER BUYING DEVICE TO ACCESS VR EXPERIENCE ABOVE GIVEN PRICE4Q4EQ1Q2Q3Standalone VR will be released in 2018(e.g.Oculus Go)and will eliminate the need for addi
97、tional hardware1AVERAGE VR SYSTEM3AVERAGE VR SYSTEM+NECESSARY HARDWARE2Average VR system price expected to drop below$200 by summer 20182018EOnly 30%of consumers would consider spending more than$200 on a VR system(vs.an average all-in price of$875 for current options)FORECASTACTIVATEREALITY COMPUTI
98、NG-AUGMENTED REALITY1.Modeled after 7th generation gaming consoles(Wii,PS3,Xbox 360,DS,and PSP).2.Excludes Google Cardboard(and third-party cardboard viewers).Assumes some cannibalization from standalone VR as price drops in later years.3.Standalone VR does not require a phone,computer,console,or an
99、y external sensors or wires.Sources:Activate analysis,Amazon,Apple,Ars Technica,Canalys,Consumer Intelligence Research Partners,CNet,Credit Suisse,Digi-Capital,eMarketer,Gartner,Gizmodo,Goldman Sachs,Greenlight Insights,IDC,Merrill Lynch,SquareTrade,Strategy Analytics,Superdata,TechCrunch,U.S.Census
100、,Venture Beat,Vgchartz,Wall Street Journal,ZDNet0%0.5%1%1.5%20162017E2018E2019E2020E2021ENevertheless,we forecast that VR will not reach scaled global adoption 41Mobile VR2Standalone3 and Tethered VRUsers as%Global PopulationWhat will hold VR back from mass adoption?Limited applications outside of g
101、aming Immersive,but not social Doesnt allow movement outside a confined area CONSUMER VR ADOPTION1,GLOBAL,2016-2021E,%POPULATIONFORECASTACTIVATEREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITYSources:Activate analysis,Apple,GoogleINSTANT USER BASE Smartphones have a huge user base with relatively quick refresh c
102、yclesFREE HARDWARE AR-optimized smartphones already have the required hardware for no additional cost to consumersSTANDARD TOOLKIT Standard software development kits allow developers to use one tool to potentially reach billionsDEVELOPER COMMUNITY A critical mass of developers can help establish tec
103、hniques and best practicesSmartphones will make Augmented Reality accessible to large-scale customer bases 42Googles currently enabled on Galaxy S8 and Pixel phonesApples currently enabled on iPhone 6s and laterMY VERY HUNGRY CATERPILLAR ARMINECRAFTATOM VISUALIZERREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITY1
104、.Phone with 6DoF(6 degrees of freedom,which includes x,y,z,roll,pitch,yaw)tracking enabled by SLAM(simultaneous location and mapping).Requires carefully calibrated hardware and software.Sources:Activate analysis,Amazon,Apple,Ars Technica,Canalys,Consumer Intelligence Research Partners,CNet,Credit Su
105、isse,Digi-Capital,eMarketer,Gartner,Gizmodo,Goldman Sachs,Greenlight Insights,IDC,Merrill Lynch,SquareTrade,Strategy Analytics,Superdata,TechCrunch,U.S.Census,Venture Beat,Vgchartz,Wall Street Journal,ZDNetWe forecast that AR will rapidly become a ubiquitous feature on smartphones,bringing Reality C
106、omputing to the mainstream 43Users as%Global Population0%10%20%30%40%20162017E2018E2019E2020E2021ETotal SmartphonesAR-Optimized1 SmartphonesAR becomes a widespread smartphone feature via refresh cyclesAR-OPTIMIZED SMARTPHONE AND TOTAL SMARTPHONE INSTALL BASE,GLOBAL,2016-2021E,%POPULATIONAR is alread
107、y enabled on hundreds of millions of smartphones(iPhone 6s and later,Galaxy S8,Pixel),and will grow rapidlyFORECASTACTIVATEREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITYREALITY COMPUTING ROADMAPDIFFERENTIATING FUNCTIONALITYAPPLICATIONSAR PROOF OF CONCEPT Can overlay a 2D digital screen over viewing area GPS in
108、tegration Notifications on head-up display Location pinning via GPSAR ENTERTAINMENT Tracking and mapping environment1,2 Facial recognition Physics engines/light estimationGames anchored in the real world (e.g.Minecraft on a table)Retail:digitally trying on clothes and placing furniture before purcha
109、se Ability to apply filters to faceENTERPRISE SUPER WORKERS Significant increases in reliability,durability,and accuracy Headsets allowing free use of hands and larger field of view Enterprise applications where overlaid content significantly enhances performance(e.g.surgery,oil&gas fieldwork,assemb
110、ly lines)SOPHISTICATED COMPUTING PLATFORM Usability improvements:longer battery life,improved field of view via consumer headsets Integrating other technologies:5G,IoT,data contextualization via AI Lower price and improved form factor Consumer-specific applications:communication,navigation,fitness,r
111、eal-time health diagnostics,etc.Multiple virtual screens that can be overlaid on any surface Intuitive 3D data modeling (e.g.weather,traffic)AR will gain increasingly more sophisticated functionality enabling advanced enterprise and consumer applications 44GOOGLE GLASSARISE1.6DoF(6 degrees of freedo
112、m,which includes x,y,z,roll,pitch,yaw)tracking enabled by SLAM(simultaneous location and mapping).2.Pokmon Go originally did not map environment,but used GPS as a rough approximation.App has recently announced plans to use ARKit to map environment.Sources:Activate analysis,“Karl Guttag on Technology
113、”blog,TechCrunch,The Verge REALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITY1.Other factors include resolution,2D vs.3D,digital image brightness,local spatial mapping and tracking,heat dissipation,mobility,durability,peripheral vision,rendering speed,eye box size,multiple focal planes,color accuracy(rendering bla
114、ck,contrast,chromatic aberrations,etc.),and how dark the outside world appears.Companies are investing to address technical challenges for AR.Developments in chips,batteries,and 5G connectivity will also advance development.Sources:Activate analysis,DAQRI,“Karl Guttag on Technology”blog,Meta,Microso
115、ft,ODG,Virtual Reality PopENTERPRISE-GRADE AR HEADSETS WILL ARRIVE FIRST(Prices as of Oct 2017)AR applications will move beyond the smartphone and become more sophisticated through headsets,starting with enterprise 45META 2DAQRI SMART GLASSESPrice:$4,995MICROSOFT HOLOLENSPrice:$3,000CONSUMERS WILL T
116、AKE LONGER TO ADOPT AR HEADSETS DUE TO THE FOLLOWING:USE CASES AR headset applications are already proven in enterprise,which will facilitate the technologys developmentPRICE With prices exceeding$2,000,AR headsets are too expensive for the average consumerFORM FACTOR Consumers are unlikely to wear
117、bulky,heavy,and unsightly headgear in publicTECH CONSIDERATIONS Consumer adoption will require longer battery life,larger viewing area,and greater mobility than enterprise1ODG R-7Price:$2,750Price:$1,495REALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITYSELECTED AR ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS1Sources:Activate analysis,
118、American Petroleum Institute,Apple,BBC Research,Bureau of Labor Statistics,Council of Economic Advisers,IHS,International Trade Administration,Kaiser Family Foundation,OECD.com,Redi-Data,Reuters,SIIA,TechCrunch,UN ComtradeEnterprise-grade AR will augment expertise,improve workflow,and enhance worker
119、 collaboration 461.Three major,early applications listed as examples.Other industries likely to be impacted include,but are not limited to,construction,manufacturing,engineering,architecture,retail,data science,real estate,defense contracting,marketing,and advertising.HEALTHCAREOIL&GAS HIGHER EDUCAT
120、IONFacilitate the installation and maintenance of industrial machinery,and assist engineers with operating and repairing equipmentAllow students to contextualize complex information,dissect virtual cadavers,and visualize 3D mathematical modelsADDRESSABLE AR MARKET BY SECTOR1,GLOBAL,2021E,BILLIONS US
121、DAid surgeons with precise overlays,give physicians readily viewable patient information,and allow paramedics to monitor vitals hands-free$7-9B$5-7B$1-2BFORECASTACTIVATEREALITY COMPUTING-AUGMENTED REALITY1.But not commercially available until 2017,and then only on Lenovo Phab 2 Pro and Asus ZenFone
122、AR.2.Acquired by Microsoft in February 2016.3.Skipped 2nd iteration to focus on 3rd.4.Part of Camera Effects Platform.Sources:Activate analysis,Apple,Ars Technica,Facebook,Google,Microsoft,QZ,The VergeBATTLE TO ESTABLISH THE DOMINANT COMPUTING PLATFORM(ARKit works on all iPhones from 6s onwards)(ARK
123、it-2017)(Speculation,but no product)(ARCore currently optimized for Pixel and Galaxy S8)(Tango-20141,ARCore-2017-expected for 100M Android phones by Q1 2018)(Launched Google Glass in 2013,led$542 million investment in Magic Leap in 2014)-(Windows Mixed Reality-2015,Xamarin2 allows coders to write ap
124、ps native to iOS,Android,and Windows,and now supports HoloLens)(On 3rd3 iteration of HoloLens,considered one of the most advanced headsets)-(AR Studio4-2017)(Announced plans,but no product)-(Snap could create an SDK,but is currently not open to developers)(Spectacles:no AR capabilities,only camera a
125、nd connectivity-could help future adoption)-(“Smart Glasses”expected,but without AR component,only bone conduction audio and Alexa)The tech players Reality Computing battle goes beyond phones it is about the software to power future computing applications 47SMARTPHONE DEVICESAR HEADSETSUPCOMING HARD
126、WARE BATTLE DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE USER BASESOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT KITREALITY COMPUTING1.Digital images are not anchored to the physical world and display is transparent.2.Digital images are anchored to the physical world(i.e.the headset recognizes surfaces and distances accurately).3.Physical world is
127、 recorded via camera and the feed and digital images are shown via an opaque screen.4.Standalone VR does not require a phone,computer,console,or any other separate hardware or wires.Expected 2018 release.OEMs/SUPPLIERSCONSUMER/ENTERPRISE INTEGRATED DEVICESSources:Activate analysis,CBInsights,Goldman
128、 Sachs,The Information,“Karl Guttag on Technology”blog,Merrill Lynch,The VR FundThe winners in Reality Computing are far from decided players will emerge to fill new opportunities 48REALITY COMPUTING LANDSCAPEARVRBOTH AR&VRVIDEO SEE-THROUGH33D CAPTURECOMBINERSHEALTHCARECONSOLEPCPHONEFUTURE STANDALON
129、E4BODY MOVEMENTGAME PRODUCTIONTRACKING SOFTWAREHAPTICSSENSORY INPUTDEVELOPER TOOLSDEV.PLATFORMSPHYSICS ENGINESCONTENT PLAYERSIntelFacebookFacebookINDUSTRIAL360 CAMERASDISPLAYMOBILEFLOATING TRANSPARENT1ANCHORED TRANSPARENT2MEDIA DISTRIBUTIONGoogleMEDIA PRODUCTIONCOMPUTATIONMEMORYGRAPHICSPROCESSOROTHE
130、R3D AUDIOEYE TRACKINGPHYSICAL POSITIONAL TRACKERSBATTERYSOCIALPRODUCTIVITYRETAILER APPSGAME PRODUCTIONSOCIALCONSUMERENTERPRISE 49The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Mone
131、y12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate
132、 Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGEWEB VIDEOOverall,consumers will dramatically increase their time spent watching digital video 502017E2021EDownloads/Ren
133、talsYouTubeSocial Video(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,Snapchat)SVOD18.9%Flat5.7%4.3%2017E-2021E CAGR0:591:14Web VideoDAILY DIGITAL VIDEO TIME SPEND,U.S.,2017E-2021E,HOURS:MINUTES1AVERAGE TIME SPENT PER VISIT BY PLATFORM,U.S.,2017E,HOURS:MINUTESSVODYouTubeSocial Video0:150:060:020:080:160:080:270:160:160:10
134、0:321.Among U.S.population.Sources:Activate analysis,Business Insider,Cisco,Company press releases,eMarketer,MediaKix,Netflix,Sandvine,Sensor TowerFORECASTACTIVATE5.8%WEB VIDEOA small percent of creators drive the majority of views on YouTube 51SHARE OF YOUTUBE CREATORS1 VS.SHARE OF VIEWS,GLOBAL,Q1
135、2016,%CREATORS,VIEWSCreatorsViews94%6%Top 1%Bottom 99%1.Every YouTube channel is considered a unique creator.Sources:Activate analysis,AllianceBernsteinWEB VIDEO 52CREATORS WITH 50M+TOTAL VIEWSCREATORS WITH 10-50M TOTAL VIEWSCREATORS WITH 50M+TOTAL VIEWSCREATORS WITH 10-50M TOTAL VIEWSEvaluating ext
136、ensive Tubular Labs data on creators with over 10M views,approximately 25 percent of the creators account for over 70 percent of viewsSHARE OF TOP1 YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK CREATORS VS.SHARE OF VIEWS BY PLATFORM,GLOBAL,Q2 2017,%TOTALCreators24%76%Views71%29%Creators26%74%Views77%23%1.Top creators define
137、d as those with over 10M total views.Sources:Activate analysis,Tubular LabsWEB VIDEOThe web video head is primarily influencers and media companies;Tubular Labs data shows that there is a greater ratio of influencers to media companies on YouTube and a roughly even ratio on Facebook 5317%83%48%52%ME
138、DIA COMPANIES2INFLUENCERS3MEDIA COMPANIESINFLUENCERSSHARE OF VIEWS FROM TOP CREATORS1 BY PLATFORM,GLOBAL,Q2 2017,%TOTAL1.Top creators defined as those with over 50M total views.Influencers and media companies make up 97%of YouTube views in this group and 98%of Facebook views in this group,brands mak
139、e up 3%in each.2.Media companies defined as organizations whose primary business model is in production and/or distribution of content.Includes some professional influencer entities that have moved upstream.3.Influencers defined as personalities,celebrities or public figures with significant social
140、presence.Sources:Activate analysis,Tubular LabsWEB VIDEOTop web video influencers range across content areas and platforms 54TOP YOUTUBE INFLUENCERS BY CATEGORY,GLOBAL,OCT 2017,MILLION SUBSCRIBERSCombined,these influencers have over 70 billion views on YouTube19.410.014.022.012.011.210.55.610.53.013
141、.75.611.29.810.85.09.42.28.61.9YUYAWEREVERTUMORROZOELLABETHANY MOTAROSANNA PANSINOROMAN ATWOODJAKE PAULSHANE DAWSONBF VS GFCOMEDY SHORTS GAMERHOLASOYGERMANWHINDERSSONNUNESNIGAHIGAJENNA MARBLESKSIELRUBIUSOMGFERNANFLOOJUEGAGERMANVANOSSGAMINGVEGETTA77719.40.47(Jesse Wellens)21.50.0121.96.924.20.0125.90
142、.17GAMING17.64.532.516.023.914.917.34.720.12.7COMEDY&ENTERTAINMENTPEOPLE&BLOGSHOW-TO&STYLESources:Activate analysis,Instagram,Socialblade,TwitchWEB VIDEOENTERTAINMENTNEWS&POLITICSTotal Views:3.9BTotal Views:3.2BTotal Views:2.3BTotal Views:2.2BTotal Views:2.2B12345MUSIC&DANCETotal Views:16.3BTotal Vi
143、ews:14.4BTotal Views:13.1BTotal Views:12.0BTotal Views:11.4B12345YOUTUBE VIEWS FROM MEDIA COMPANIES BY GENRE1,2,GLOBAL,Q2 2017,%VIEWSMOST VIEWED MEDIA COMPANIES ON YOUTUBE BY CATEGORY,U.S.,AUG 2017,BILLION VIEWSThe top U.S.media company creators on YouTube are TV shows,artists and TV networks20%9%22
144、%49%ENTERTAINMENTNEWS&POLITICSMUSIC&DANCEEVERYTHING ELSE4Total Views:12.9BTotal Views:11.1BTotal Views:9.2BTotal Views:6.8BTotal Views:6.4B123435JUSTIN BIEBERKATY PERRYTAYLOR SWIFTRIHANNASHAKIRATHE YOUNG TURKS 551.Among media companies with 10M+views.Media companies defined as organizations whose pr
145、imary business model is in production and/or distribution of content.Includes some professional influencer entities that have moved upstream.2.Video category names were self-reported by creators.3.Smosh used to be recognized as an influencer but has recently worked on films produced by Lionsgate and
146、 Columbia Pictures.4.Other categories include Animals&Pets,Beauty,Cars,Education,Fashion&Style,Film&Movies,Food&Drink,Gaming,General Interest,Health&Fitness,Home&DIY,Kids Entertainment,People&Blogs,Science&Tech,Sports,Travel.Sources:Activate analysis,Tubular LabsWEB VIDEO21%8%10%NEWS&POLITICSTotal V
147、iews:19.4BTotal Views:15.9BTotal Views:12.2BTotal Views:9.5BTotal Views:8.5B12345The top U.S.media company creators on Facebook are online publishersENTERTAINMENTTotal Views:15.7BTotal Views:13.3BTotal Views:12.0BTotal Views:10.8BTotal Views:8.5BFACEBOOK VIEWS FROM MEDIA COMPANIES BY GENRE1,2,GLOBAL
148、,Q2 2017,%VIEWSMOST VIEWED MEDIA COMPANIES ON FACEBOOK BY CATEGORY,U.S.,AUG 2017,BILLION VIEWSFOOD&DRINKNEWS&POLITICSEVERYTHING ELSE3ENTERTAINMENT61%12345 561.Among media companies with 10M+views.Media companies defined as organizations whose primary business model is in production and/or distributi
149、on of content.Includes some professional influencer entities that have moved upstream.2.Video category names were self-reported by creators.3.Other categories include Animals&Pets,Beauty,Cars,Education,Fashion&Style,Film&Movies,Music&Dance,Gaming,General Interest,Health&Fitness,Home&DIY,Kids Enterta
150、inment,People&Blogs,Science&Tech,Sports,Travel.Sources:Activate analysis,Tubular LabsWEB VIDEOPewdiePie567.40.9HolaSoyGerman3216.2NAEl Rubius250.010.2Smosh236.90.01Fernanfloo235.3NALogan Paul12.112.8NAEh Bee4.110.3NALance Stewart3.68.8NAKing Bach1.68.3NACurtis Lepore0.88.0NASyndicate101.52.5Nightblu
151、e32.10.31.7Summit1g0.40.041.6LIRIK0.2NA1.5PhantomL0rd0.50.41.5Influencers who start on a platform do not typically transfer success to another 57YOUTUBE NATIVEFACEBOOK NATIVETWITCH NATIVETOP SUBSCRIBED INFLUENCER ACCOUNTS BY NATIVE PLATFORM,GLOBAL,SEP 2017,MILLION SUBSCRIBERS/FOLLOWERSSources:Activa
152、te analysis,Business Insider,Facebook,MediaKix,Socialblade,TwitchWEB VIDEOWeb video platforms satisfy different content preferences media companies will need to play to each platforms strengths 58VIEWERS BY TOPIC AND PLATFORM,U.S.,SEP 2017,%POPULATIONMusic Videos Educational Gaming News Sports 26%50
153、%20%22%22%22%27%19%20%18%31%33%30%45%73%2339498935COMBINED REACH OF TOP INFLUENCERS1 BY PLATFORM AND CATEGORY,GLOBAL,SEP 2017,MILLION SUBSCRIBERS/FOLLOWERS4252152GamingEntertainmentBeautyFitnessPets“Entertainment”influencers on Instagram appear to have a stronger reach than“Beauty”influen
154、cers501.Top influencers is defined as Forbes Top 10 Influencers list.The list was generated along with Traackr and Captiv8 to measure reach,virality,engagement,earnings per post,outside endorsements,and reputation.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Facebook:n=
155、2,641,Snapchat:n=969,YouTube:n=2,940),ForbesWEB VIDEOTo attract these creators and capture user attention,web video platforms are attempting to move into each others turfs 59RECORDEDLIVELONG FORMSHORT FORMSOCIALON-DEMANDLINEARCREATOR-DRIVENVIDEO SEGMENTATION MATRIXSource:Activate analysisWEB VIDEO 6
156、0The platforms are also shifting into live streaming this medium has exhibited rapid growth in views and time spentAVERAGE LIVE STREAMING VIEWERS BY PLATFORM,GLOBAL,Q2 2017,THOUSAND VIEWERS20016292B241B192B144BQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2YOUTUBE LIVE GAMING VIEWS,GLOBAL,2016-2017,BILLIONS1.2B4.3B20162017
157、MINUTES WATCHED ON TWITCH,GLOBAL,2013-2016,BILLIONS23K61K318K743KSources:Activate analysis,Streamlabs,Tubular Labs,TwitchWEB VIDEO 61Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017$0.9M$0.2M$0.0M$22.6M$20.6M$19.9MTwitch,primarily a gaming platform,is expected to facilitate$100M in total donations to creators in 2017Live-stre
158、aming creators will use crowdfunding platforms,such as Patreon,to monetize directly through fansDONATION VOLUME BY LIVE-STREAMING PLATFORM,GLOBAL,Q3 2016-Q1 2017,MILLIONS USDMay 16Sep 16Jan 17May 17Sep 17119K95K73K57K47KTotal Patreon donations increased from$12M in 2014 to$150M in 20167M14M21MJul 16
159、Jan 17Jul 17TOTAL PATRONS OF ALL VIDEO PATREON CAMPAIGNS,GLOBAL,MAY 2016-SEP 2017,THOUSANDSTOTAL YOUTUBE SUBSCRIBERS OF ALL VIDEO PATREON CAMPAIGNS,GLOBAL,2016-2017,MILLIONSSources:Activate analysis,Graphtreon,Patreon,Streamlabs,TechCrunch,Tubefilter28M 62The Most Important Insights for Tech and Med
160、ia in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and
161、Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage User
162、s124PAGETHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Digital TV Research,eMarketer,PricewaterhouseCoopers,SNL Kagan,Strategy AnalyticsU.S.video revenues will continue to expand,with Pay TV still the dominant segment,but digital surging in growth 63Note:Paid downloads estimate updated to incl
163、ude rentals,leading to substantial increase over 2016 Activate Tech and Media Outlook estimates.Ad-supported video includes digital TV Everywhere viewing.Figures do not add to$200B due to rounding.VIDEO REVENUES,U.S.,2018E,BILLIONS USDPay TV Subscriptions$98.1BTV Advertising$72.3BAd-Supported$15.4BS
164、ubscription$9.1BPaid Downloads$5.0B$200BTRADITIONAL TELEVISIONDIGITAL VIDEOTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSource:Activate analysisThe future winners in television and video streaming will look quite familiar to consumers 64PLAYERRATIONALESVOD PLATFORMS Dominant SVOD platforms will expand their originals
165、 budgets and acquire major franchises in order to retain their existing fanbases and attract cord-cutters Niche SVOD services will face significant consumer acquisition obstacles,and will likely require distribution by the major players in order to find audiencesMAJOR MVPDS Virtual Pay TV will face
166、a number of challenges,including low profitability,high churn,and misalignment with consumer behaviors The option value of the traditional cable bundle,as well as the cost-effectiveness of bundling,will limit cord-cutting in the near-and mid-termLEADING BROADCASTERS The growth of ATSC 3.0 will provi
167、de broadcasters with a compelling offering for non-Pay TV viewers,combining streaming services and high-demand broadcast channels into a low-cost packageMOBILE CARRIERS Television delivery will be a key use case for 5G,particularly fixed wireless-to-the-home Carriers will be able to zero-rate high-v
168、alue content over increasingly fast mobile connectionsSTUDIOS WITH DISTINCTIVE CONTENT As digital platforms look to retain customers through valuable franchise purchases,studios will find themselves in a sellers marketTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Service websitesThe digital p
169、remium video market is becoming more fragmented by the day every player wants to be in everything 65MVPD-OperatedMajor StandaloneNiche Standalone“Big 3”Network OfferingsNiche Vertical OfferingsFacebookTwitterAppleLIVE/LINEAR VIDEO PROGRAMMINGBroadcast NetworksCable NetworksNiche NetworksLive SportsL
170、ive EventsDTC/Original SeriesAggregationSport ReplaysVIRTUAL PAY TVSUBSCRIPTION VODSOCIAL PLATFORMSTECHNOLOGY PROVIDERSNON-LINEAR VIDEO PROGRAMMINGSELECTED PLAYERSTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOLarger traditional Pay TV bundles are highly penetrated across all income levels,raising the bar for Virtual P
171、ay TV offerings in terms of channel selection 66PAY TV BUNDLE PENETRATION BY INCOME LEVEL,U.S.,2016,SIZE OF BUNDLE,%USERS$15k$15-25k$25-35k$35-50k$50-75k$75-100k$100-150k$150-200k$200k+37%18%21%18%17%17%17%13%16%37%49%49%46%47%45%41%40%29%13%21%19%22%20%26%23%24%36%100-300 channels300+channelsFewer
172、than 100 channels Consumers value the content buffet,leading Virtual Pay TV providers to launch“fatter versions of their initial bundles PS Vue and DirecTV Now are offering bundles with roughly 100 channels for$70+/month Services are likely more expensive after the inclusion of unbundled broadbandTA
173、KEAWAYSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,769)THE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOBundle Size(Number of Channels)0-2525-5050--+$100$84$76$65$54$51$39$76$70$64$53$50$45$33Our research shows that consumers still value the content buffet,and ar
174、e willing to pay more for a large selection of channels 67WILLINGNESS TO PAY RANGE BY TV BUNDLE SIZE,U.S.,2016,USD,#CHANNELSHigh-End of Willingness to PayLow-End of Willingness to PaySources:Activate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,769)THE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources
175、:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=996),CNBC,CNET,Company sites,Leichtman Research Group,Netflix,Parks Associates,Seeking Alpha,SNL KaganCustomer acquisition and content costs are a formidable challenge for Virtual Pay TV providers 68AVERAGE ANNUAL CHURN RATES BY S
176、ERVICE1,U.S.,2017,%Virtual Pay TVSVODPay TV19%50%2017E2021E$56.8$43.91.Virtual Pay TV churn rate for TTM beginning September 2017,while SVOD churn rate covers CY 2016.2.Programming costs analysis based on average of base Virtual Pay TV offerings across the major services,and includes only those that
177、 offer broadcast networks and/or sports programming.Programming estimates subject to a premium based on reduced scale of Virtual Pay TV offerings,and the resulting impact on per-channel costs.MONTHLY PROGRAMMING COSTS PER SUBSCRIBER FOR STANDARD BUNDLE2,U.S.,2017E-2021E,USDAverage monthly fee for Vi
178、rtual Pay TV$35-4525%KEY10%10-15%16-20%THE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,ABI,AT&T,Bloomberg,Ericsson,GSMA,Verizon5G will likely expand Virtual Pay TV delivery,bringing broadened access,lower costs,and expanded channel packages 74RANGE OF CONNECTIVITY USE CASES FOR VIDEO STREAMINGF
179、ACTORIMPACT ON VIRTUAL PAY TVCONNECTIVITY COSTS Reduced costs as subscribers migrate to virtual television bundled with wireless Wireless players increase broadband competition,driving down overall costsSUPERIOR RELIABILITY 5G offers high-speed,low-latency video at up to 4K resolution,ameliorating d
180、elivery obstacles with current Virtual Pay TV solutionsZERO-RATING Wireless providers zero-rate proprietary video services(e.g.DirecTV Now)Further reduces consumer costs and encourages cross-platform viewingEXPANDED CHANNEL PACKAGES Strong connectivity allows Virtual Pay TV packages to expand in siz
181、e,providing equal option value to terrestrial televisionBegan tests in January for 5G Fixed Wireless Access delivery of DirecTV Now in Austin,along with 2 new test beds for 5G technology Testing 5G Fixed Wireless Access technology in 11 markets,with indications that they will use 5G to offer service
182、s“similar to FiOS”Virtual Pay TV recommended speed for homes with 2+devicesMinimum advertised requirement for HDVirtual Pay TV Minimum advertised requirement4K Virtual Reality Streaming720p Virtual Reality Streaming500 Mbps1 Gbps25 Mbps50 Mbps10 Mbps5 Mbps5G 1 Gbps+WIRELINE 18 Mbps4G 14 MbpsFully-Fe
183、atured Digital“Cable”Service?THE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEONumber of Paid Services Used6%15%32%47%Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=3,023),GfK,Leichtman Research Group,Parks AssociatesPeople are actually watching more streaming video than they are paying for a
184、s a result of password sharing 75NUMBER OF SVOD SUBSCRIPTIONS PER USER,U.S.,2017,%USERS1 Service3 Services4+Services2 Services1.82AVERAGE PAID SERVICES PER USERAround 30%of streaming users are accessing a service using a shared passwordMulti-users average 2.54 services eachEffective Number of Servic
185、es Used10%18%33%39%1 Service3 Services4+Services2 ServicesEFFECTIVE NUMBER OF SVOD SERVICES PER USER1,U.S.,2017,%USERS-8%+1%+3%+4%CHANGE ON PAID SERVICE DISTRIBUTION2.041.Effective bundle defined as total services used after factoring in paid subscriptions and password-sharing.THE FUTURE OF PREMIUM
186、VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2016 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,064),Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=3,023),CNBC,GfKWith the domestic market saturating and consumer willingness to pay flat,the growth in SVOD will come from the most active users increasing their
187、 spend 76NUMBER OF STREAMING SERVICES USED,U.S.,2016-2017,%USERS1 Service2 Services3+Services21%32%47%13%31%56%20162017-9%+1%+8%WILLINGNESS TO PAY RANGE FOR SVOD SUBSCRIBERS1,U.S.,2016 Two-thirds of U.S.households now have an SVOD service,with younger and wealthier demographics heavily over-indexing
188、 on format Flattening domestic subscriber growth for Netflix the leading service and foundation of roughly 70%of SVOD packages suggests that future U.S.growth will need to come from subscribers adding services$14.801.Aggregate across services.Upper bound of willingness to pay for monthly streaming$1
189、0.99Recent Netflix price increase for most popular plan$11.99Hulu Plus(no commercials tier)monthly cost$8.99Amazon Prime streaming-only monthly costStreaming Monthly PriceTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=3,023),FBR,Hulu,J.P.Morga
190、n,Netflix,RBC Capital Markets,SNL KaganFor SVOD providers,library is a vehicle to acquire users,originals are to retain them 77SVOD PROGRAMMING CONSIDERED MOST VALUABLE BY SUBSCRIBERS,U.S.,2017,%SUBSCRIBERSSVOD PROGRAMMING SPEND,GLOBAL,2014-2017E,BILLIONS USDOriginalsNew moviesNew showsOlder showsOl
191、der moviesComedyOther4%12%19%23%35%40%45%Netflixs acquisition of Millardworld likely suggests future franchise acquisitionsOnly 38%of new Netflix subscribers say original content did not influence their decision to sign-up,compared to 52%two years ago20017E$2.5$1.8$1.2$1.0$4.5$3.2$2.6$1.4
192、$9.2$6.9$4.6$3.2Both Amazon and Netflix plan to increase spending on originals to 20-25%of their annual content budgetsTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=3,023)Content owners have the ability to launch DTC services because subscrib
193、ers are discerning about what they want to watch 78LIKELIHOOD OF CHOOSING A SHOW OR A MOVIE BEFORE VISITING AN SVOD SITE,U.S.,2017,%3%9%35%27%26%Almost 90%of SVOD users have at least some idea of what they want to watch when they visit the platforms they useVery LikelyQuite LikelySomewhat LikelyNot
194、That LikelyNot at All LikelyTHE FUTURE OF PREMIUM VIDEOSources:Activate analysis,Amazon,CBS,Ellation,Hulu,Parks AssociatesSmaller SVOD services will face extreme consumer acquisition challenges if not acquired or distributed by established players 79SELECTED AVAILABLE SVOD SERVICES,U.S.,2017THERE WE
195、RE OVER 110 OTT SERVICES AVAILABLE TO U.S.CONSUMERS AT THE END OF 2016Movies NowPROGRAMMERINITIATIVES Offers more than 70 additional SVOD services to Prime subscribers Vehicle for expanding live into Europe Ellation-owned service that combines Crunchyroll,Seeso(shutting down),Rooster Teeth,and Nerdi
196、st Alpha Initially targeted toward gamers Unified Showtime and CBS bundle for purchase directly from CBS,rather than through third-party Offers subscribers add-ons for HBO,Showtime,and Cinemax Partnering with Spotify to bundle alongside musicPAY TV PROVIDERS Opportunity to bundle SVOD offerings alon
197、gside traditional offerings Connectivity providers(e.g.telcos)can also offer bundles of zero-rated servicesRECENT SHUTDOWNS/REVERSALS 80The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot Mo
198、re Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the U
199、ltimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGESPORTS1.Sports viewers defined as anyone who reported watching sports content in a given week.Sources:Activate a
200、nalysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406)The live TV ecosystem is built on sports:for 90%of sports viewers,there is no substitute 81Sports Related Content90%watch specifically for the sports contentSPORTS VIEWER1 SEGMENTS(ADULTS,AGE 18+,U.S.,2017)10%SPORTS FANSwatch only as a
201、 social activitySOCIAL FANSSPORTSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Left:n=4,047;Right:n=2,406),ESPN,Forbes,NewZoo,Nielsen Scarborough,SuperData ResearchCore sports audiences will remain strong in the near future;emerging sports such as soccer and eSports will
202、 be additive 822017E2018E2019E2020E2021EALL SPORTS VIDEO VIEWERSHIP,U.S.,2017E-2021E,MILLIONS141M84M79M63M32MFORECASTACTIVATE78%of sports viewers report watching at least the same amount of sports compared to last year 16MeSportsSPORTSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Resea
203、rch Study(n=2,406)However,not all viewers are created equal 83SUPER FANDEDICATED FANCASUAL FANSOCIAL FANViews 10+hours of sports content per weekViews 5-10 hours of sports content per weekViews up to 4 hours of sports content per weekWatches sports content only as a social activity86%of SUPER FANS a
204、re watching multiple sports SUPER FANS watch 17 hours of sports content per week on average 65%of CASUAL FANS are watching more than 1 sport,2-3 on average Football is the most popular sport among CASUAL FANSSOCIAL FANS skew a bit older,27%are 65+SOCIAL FANS still watch about 4 hours of sports conte
205、nt per week on average82%of DEDICATED FANS are watching multiple sports Football is the most popular sport among DEDICATED FANS,followed by baseball 27%OF FANS61%OF HOURS23%OF FANS19%OF HOURS14%OF HOURS10%OF FANS6%OF HOURS40%OF FANSSPORTS1.Access is defined as a bundle that allows viewers to watch a
206、ll the sports programming across all devices.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406)Willingness to pay aligns with fan engagement to sports:Super Fans are willing to pay over 30%more than Social Fans to access sports content 84Social FanSuper Fan$10$15$20$
207、25WILLINGNESS TO PAY RANGE FOR MONTHLY ACCESS1 TO SPORTS VIDEO CONTENT BY FAN TYPE,U.S.,2017,USDOnly Watch as Social Activity Watch 10+Hours/WeekSPORTSSources:Activate analysis,Company financials,Company press releases,IEG,International Monetary Fund,PricewaterhouseCoopers,SNL Kagan,Wall Street Jour
208、nalBuilt on the strong demand of sports fans,sports rights will continue to drive revenue growth for sports 85TRADITIONAL SPORTS REVENUE,U.S.,2017E-2021E,BILLIONS USD2017E2021E69.657.5Ticket SalesSponsorshipsMerchandiseSports Rights$65.1B$74.6BMerchandiseSponsorshipsSports RightsTicket SalesThe enti
209、re video landscape is recognizing the significance of sports,making rights more competitiveCAGR 2.6%CAGR 3.6%CAGR 4.8%CAGR 2.6%$1.4B$2.4B$3.7B$2.0BCAGR 3.5%$18.3B$17.8B$15.8B$13.2B$14.6B$18.2B$21.5B$20.3BFORECASTACTIVATESPORTS1.eSports and MLS also include 2021E.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 20
210、17 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=4,047),ESPN,Forbes,NewZoo,Nielsen Scarborough,SuperData ResearchOn top of todays growing sports revenues,new venues for further growth will include emerging leagues such as MLS and eSports 86$0$75$21E$1.3B$4B$6B$10B$14B2017E$410M2017E$730M2021E$1.1B
211、REVENUE AND AUDIENCE SIZE,U.S.,2017E1,USD AND MILLION VIEWERSFORECASTACTIVATEAverage Revenue Per FaneSports$Total Revenue Audience Size(M)SPORTSSources:Activate analysis,American Gaming Association,H2 Gambling Capital,PricewaterhouseCoopers,University of NevadaThere is growing interest for sports be
212、tting in the U.S.,we forecast that nationwide legalization could mean significant revenues 872006201120161xNon-Betting Sports Revenues0.4x0.1x$15B+Potential Annual Revenue Opportunity from Betting20%+growthFORECASTACTIVATENEVADA SPORTS BETTING AMOUNT BY YEAR,U.S.,2006-2016,BILLIONS USDIn Europe,wher
213、e sports betting is widely legal,betting revenues are equal to 40%of non-betting revenuesSports Betting RevenuesSPORTS REVENUES VS.SPORTS BETTING REVENUES,U.S.,2017E,RATIO$4.5B$2.9B$2.4BSPORTSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406),Activate 2016 Consumer T
214、ech&Media Research Study(n=1,178)Most sports fans will continue to follow multiple sports 88NUMBER OF SPORTS WATCHED BY SPORTS VIEWERS,U.S.,2017,%VIEWERS26%29%24%21%4+Sports3 Sports2 Sports1 Sportof eSports enthusiasts also follow or play traditional sportsof sports viewers follow more than 1 sport7
215、4%91%SPORTS1.Traditional sports are comprised of football,baseball,basketball,hockey,etc.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406)Younger fans will drive viewership towards emerging leagues such as MLS and eSports 8962%46%36%29%28%28%26%21%SPORTS VIEWERS AGE
216、 18-34 BY SPORT,U.S.,2017,%VIEWERS30%of traditional sports1 viewers are 18-34Basketball,soccer,and eSports have a younger audienceeSportsSPORTSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406),Nielsen87%94%92%95%97%99%42%38%31%14%10%2%38%32%26%22%16%12%13%17%18%13%8
217、%3%TV will continue to be the dominant platform for sports viewing,but digital platforms will gain importance as younger generations age 90SHARE OF SPORTS VIEWERS WATCHING SPORTS ON EACH PLATFORM BY AGE,U.S.,2017,%VIEWERSSMARTPHONETABLETTVDESKTOP/LAPTOP18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+Younger viewers are
218、 watching on multiple platformsSPORTSSHARE OF SPORTS VIEWERS WATCHING SPORTS ON NON-TV PLATFORMS BY AGE,U.S.,2017,%VIEWERSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=2,406),AppAnnie,Bloomberg,CBS,comScore18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+14%26%33%47%54%63%Audience reach wi
219、ll cross over multiple platforms,particularly for younger viewers 91SMARTPHONETABLETDESKTOP/LAPTOPU.S.DOWNLOADS SINCE 20108M+372KAVG#OF VIEWERS THAT WATCHED FIRST TNF1 GAME IN 2017(WORLDWIDE)AVG VIEWERS PER STREAMED TNF1 GAME IN 2016(WORLDWIDE)266K1.Thursday Night Football.NON-TV PLATFORMSSPORTS2001
220、2007201320192025The next years will see extreme competition for rights among media companies and digital platform insurgents 92$569$709$1,548$767$930$2,600$3,125$1,883$3,100$10$50$43Rights to air college sports in China through 2024SELECT CONTENT RIGHTS TIMELINES PER SPORT PER YEAR,U.S.,2001-2025,MI
221、LLIONS USDeSports1.Financials not disclosed.Sources:Activate analysis,Company and league press releases,SNL Kagan,Wall Street J 93The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Mon
222、ey12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimat
223、e Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGEREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Based on individual news properties in top 100 of comScore news rankings,includes desktop site
224、,mobile site and mobile app.Aggregated monthly unique visitors defined as a sum of MUVs from comScores top 100 news properties.2.Average viewership minutes measured for ABC,CBS,NBC,CNBC,CNN,Fox Business Network,Fox News Channel,PBS,and The Weather Channel for Q1 2014-2017.Sources:Activate analysis,c
225、omScore,NielsenDigital news consumption has grown over the last three years,while television news engagement has climbed this is more than just the bump from the election 94MULTI-PLATFORM TRAFFIC TO TOP NEWS PROPERTIES,U.S.,OCT 2014-JUL 2017,BILLION AGGREGATED MONTHLY UNIQUE VISITORS1 Oct-2014 Jan-2
226、015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 Apr-2017 Jul-2017Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 20171,031760664646AVERAGE ENGAGEMENT FOR TOP NEWS CHANNELS,U.S.,Q1 2014-2017,TOTAL MINUTES VIEWED2Election drop-offLikely election-drivenAggregated Unique Visitors for Top News SitesR
227、EAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Top news sites are selected from comScores Top 100 digital news properties,all sites represent desktop and mobile site numbers only.Sources:Activate analysis,Alexa,comScoreThe digital properties that command the largest audiences have a strong presence on multiple platforms,pa
228、rticularly television 95TRAFFIC TO SELECTED TOP NEWS SITES,U.S.,AUG 2017,MILLION MONTHLY UNIQUE VISITORS1News Sites with Traditional TV PresenceNews Sites without Traditional TV Presence74605956554847474742353332262522222REAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS-48%-22%-20%-20%-14%-11%-1%0%8%12%1
229、2%12%13%19%21%23%23%27%29%58%58%81%1.Top news sites are selected from comScores Top 100 digital news properties,all sites represent desktop and mobile site numbers only.Sources:Activate analysis,Alexa,comScoreOver the last year,there have been major shifts in traffic across leading news sites 96GROW
230、TH FOR TOP NEWS SITES,U.S.,AUG 2016-2017,%CHANGE IN MONTHLY UNIQUE VISITORS1MUVs47M20M78M33M22M47M112M95M42M92M55M93M47M32M60M14M2M6M74M56M26M21MREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Left:n=4,047;Right:n=2,013)Social has become the leading d
231、iscovery source,but the importance of direct visits suggests that news brands are durable 97Direct VisitsSocial MediaSearch EngineEmail AlertsMobile AlertsNews AggregatorsOther6%9%11%12%31%33%49%SOURCES OF NEWS DISCOVERY,U.S.,2017,%ADULTSNEWS CONSUMERS ACTIVELY SEARCHING FOR NEWS,U.S.,2017,%ACTIVE N
232、EWS READERSSocial MediaDirect VisitsSearch EngineEmail AlertsMobile AlertsNews AggregatorsOther6%7%10%11%31%38%40%REAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,CNN,Fortune,NBC,Snapchat,TechCrunchNews companies and social platforms will continue to partner to reach new audiences 98MAJOR NEWS SHOWS
233、ON SNAPCHAT,U.S.,2017 Planning 16 streaming video partnerships,including a show with BuzzFeed(MorningFeed)and a technology news show with The Verge(Circuit Breaker)Also working with Cheddar to launch an hour-long daily show(Opening Bell)that will focus on financial and business news Shifting away fr
234、om incentive program for live video,and encouraging news publishers to create premium,long-form video content Currently testing“Instant Video”feature to allow news publishers to create fast-loading,mobile-friendly video that does not require mobile dataPUBLISHER-NEWS VIDEO PARTNERSHIPS,U.S.,2017REAL
235、 NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Apple News.Sources:Activate analysis,Business Insider,Digiday,Mashable,TechCrunch,Wall Street Journal,WiredPlatforms have loosened attempts to control news revenue streams,but are still holding back on consumer data and transparency in discovery 99INITIATIVES BY FIRST-PARTY PUBLI
236、SHING PLATFORMS,U.S.,2017SUBSCRIPTIONPlanned subscription and newsletter tools,possibly with metered paywall capabilityTesting of subscription tools(“first click free”option sunset in favor of“flexible”option that lets publishers meter paywalls)Featured subscriptions capability for select publicatio
237、ns(e.g.TIME)ADVERTISINGChanges allow publishers to show more ads,and insert“call-to-action”newslettersVideo ad capability alongside Moat attribution and measurement advertisers get full sense of ad revenueReportedly open to letting publishers sell ads through their own stack,with NBCU currently hand
238、ling salesCONSUMER DATAControl of consumer data has prompted publishers to pool own audience dataBroader accounting of traffic data through expected DoubleClick enhancements such as BigQuery and Data Studio,along with Moat video measurementControls consumer data on paymentDISCOVERYPrefers publishers
239、 using Instant Articles and Facebook Live toolsDominance in search means AMP pages receive preference within search“Featured Subscriptions”for certain publishers1REAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Columbia Journalism Review,Digiday,Reuters,Tow Center for Digital Journalism,The VergeSoci
240、al platforms will need to maintain relationships with credible news media brands to continue as reliable news sources 100PERCEIVED TRUSTWORTHINESS BY NEWS SOURCE,SELECTED COUNTRIES,2017,%NEWS READERS20%27%18%28%24%38%40%41%47%51%News MediaSocial MediaPUBLISHERS THAT HAVE LEFT OR REMAIN UNINVOLVEDPUB
241、LISHERS WITH MINIMAL INVOLVEMENTESTABLISHED PUBLISHERS WITH MINIMAL INSTANT ARTICLES PARTICIPATIONCANADAIRELANDUNITED KINGDOMAUSTRALIAUNITED STATESREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Bot score measures likelihood that a given social account is controlled by a bot.The Indiana University methodology collects up t
242、o 200 of an accounts most recent posts,as well as up to 100 posts mentioning the account.Bot score is assigned based on an algorithm trained through machine-learning from human and bot accounts that makes an assessment based on user metadata,friend statistics,part-of-speech and sentiment analyses,am
243、ong other criteria.Sources:Activate analysis,Indiana University(Bloomington)“Fake friends”or bots on social platforms appear to drive fake news,and are likely to be the most active distributors of false content 101LIKELIHOOD OF FAKE NEWS SHARER BEING A BOT,GLOBAL,2017,BOT SCORE1 Researchers analyzed
244、 14 million messages spreading 400,000 claims on Twitter during and following the presidential election The most active sharing accounts are 15%more likely to be bots (see left)than a social account chosen at random The findings highlight the importance of efforts to curb “fake accounts”or“fake frie
245、nds”on social platforms,either as a replacement for or supplement to existing efforts to flag fake news contentTAKEAWAYS43%28%The most active sharers of fake news are more likely to be bots by a statistically significant margin Likelihood of Being a BotAverage Sharer SampleMost Active Sharer SampleR
246、EAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center(n=1,489),Facebook,Google,Yale University“Fake friends”appear to have real influence,and existing efforts to curb fake news on social platforms will struggle 102DISCOVERY DE-PRIORITIZATION Google has take
247、n steps to reduce the search rankings of fake news sites Facebook bumps fake news stories down in News Feed in order to draw away user attentionFLAGGING Facebook flags suspected fake news,as does Google through the“Fact Check”program Studies suggest that flagging has minimal impact on perception of
248、accuracy Facebook does not share data on these posts,limiting measurement of effectivenessREPUTABLE BRAND PROMOTION New Facebook features give background on reputable news sources Facebook also features related articles”in order to test if a given article has been corroborated by outside sourcesShar
249、e Article38%22%18%12%39%7%14%12%7%23%Not Trusted Sharer/Reputable SourceTrusted Sharer/Unknown SourceSign Up for AlertsFollow Source on SocialRecommend to FriendsFollow SharerLIKELIHOOD OF ACTION BASED ON SHARER/SOURCE OF NEWS,U.S.,2016,%NEWS READERSREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Analysis draws from Alexa
250、data on top 690 U.S.news websites,as well as 65 fake news websites selected by Journal of Economic Perspectives authors.2.Classification of“Fake News”sites was conducted by Dr.Melissa Zimdars at Merrimack College.Sources:Activate analysis,Alexa,Merrimack College,“Social Media and Fake News in the 20
251、16 Election”as published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives by Hunt Alcott of New York University and Matthew Gentzkow of Stanford UniversityThe proliferation of bots and fake friends”on social platforms which are the primary drivers of fake news highlights the importance of reputable news bran
252、ds 103NEWS SITE TRAFFIC BY SOURCE,U.S.,NOV 2016,%BY SOURCE1SOCIAL MEDIASEARCH ENGINESOTHER LINKSDIRECT BROWSING“Fake News”sites,as defined by a study at Merrimack College,were analyzed based on title/domain reputability,availability of background information,accurate source citations,writing style a
253、nd site aesthetics2Sources of Traffic to Top News Sites48%11%31%10%SOCIAL MEDIASEARCH ENGINESOTHER LINKSDIRECT BROWSING31%5%22%42%Sources of Traffic to“Fake News SitesREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Left Top:n=2,470;Left Bottom:n=334),
254、Associated Press/National Opinion Research CenterLIKELIHOOD OF PAYING FOR NEWS SUBSCRIPTION IN NEXT YEAR,U.S.,2017,%NEWS READERSNew subscriber acquisition will be difficult,but loyal subscribers may be willing to pay more for enhanced experiences 104PERCEPTION OF NEWS SUBSCRIPTION VALUE,U.S.,2016,%P
255、AYERS9%15%69%43%of Americans subscribing to a top U.S.newspaper or local newspaper are willing to spend more on their current news subscriptionQuite unlikelySomewhat unlikelyNot sureSomewhat likely16%52%32%16%36%48%Digital PayersPrint PayersVery Good ValueFair ValueSomewhat or Very OverpricedQuite l
256、ikely6%1%REAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=4,047)SEGMENTSSEGMENT CHARACTERISTICS%OF NEWS READERS IN SEGMENTSUPER USERS Actively seek out news,often through direct site visits Consider news an essential part of their media diet Are like
257、ly paying for/donating to news sources,and are often willing to pay more for the sources that they use More likely to be higher-income consumersPOTENTIAL CONVERTS Actively seek out news and consider it important May not be paying for the sources they read,although marginally more likely to be passwo
258、rd-sharing Value select news sources,and demonstrate a willingness to pay for digital media(e.g.video and audio)that they enjoyLONG-GAME TARGETS Consider news somewhat important,but more likely to find it passively on social Significantly less likely to pay for news sources or digital media more bro
259、adly More likely to be lower-income consumersNEWS NEVERS(LOST CAUSES)Less likely to consider news important,and prefer to find it passively on social Not interested or likely to pay for news or other subscription services in the foreseeable future Do not closely follow the news enough to justify pay
260、ing for itActivate research indicates that half of the news reading population could subscribe to a news publication,up from 27%today 105NEWS CONSUMER SEGMENTATION LANDSCAPE27%23%34%16%REAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Bloomberg,Digiday,Neiman Lab,New York Times,Slate,Washington PostTh
261、e recent spike in news subscriptions mirrors a broader industry shift away from advertising and toward cultivating dedicated paying audiences 106SOURCES OF NON-ADVERTISING REVENUE AMONG NEWS PUBLICATIONS,U.S.,2017 The New York Times saw 46%growth over Q2 2016 in Q2 2017,adding 93,000 digital subscri
262、ptions The Washington Post broke through 1 million digital subscriptions in September 2017 The Atlantic has launched a$100/month membership program called the Masthead,which provides subscribers with exclusive content and members-only event access Slate Plus provides exclusive content to subscribers
263、 for a yearly fee of$35 Bloomberg Businessweek introduced a two-tiered membership model,starting at$50/year and rising to$87/yearECOMMERCE Fusion Media Groups Kinja platform allows it to collect affiliate fees on products advertised through its editorial propertiesCONTENT LICENSING Vox and BuzzFeed
264、have allocated significant resources to developing long-form video content for licensing to networks and other video distributors The Financial Times began asking users for detailed information(e.g.professional industry,job,role)and charged advertisers 20-50%more to access high-value readers Less th
265、an 20%of newspapers(not just the Financial Times)ask for a users gender/birth year and less than 5%ask for title,interests,profession,and/or educationSUBSCRIPTION GROWTHTIERED MEMBERSHIPCUSTOMER DATAREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.The Washington Post Digital Partner program allows newspaper partner publicat
266、ions to offer The Washington Posts suite of digital products free as an added value for their paid subscribers.2.The New York Times is no longer available on Facebook Instant Articles.Sources:Activate analysis,Columbia Journalism Review,Facebook,Google,NewsWhip,RecodeBUNDLED NEWS OFFERINGS The Washi
267、ngton Post Digital Partner program1 grew from 96 to 308 partners from May 2014 to November 2014 New models such as Scroll can bundle together articles from various publications for a monthly feeFIRST-PARTY PUBLISHING Some publications have invested heavily in first-party tools to drive stronger user
268、 engagement and reach new readers Opportunity to expose consumers to evergreen news content without sacrificing monetization on timely newsNEW MOBILE FORMATS Snapchat and Instagram have taken the lead in crafting new formats for publishers Google Stamp is likely to enter the market soon as a competi
269、tor to existing platforms Currently require specialized in-house teams,favoring established brandsPublishers looking to attract Potential Converts have a number of options,including distribution through emerging channels 10736%64%LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED POST SUBSCRIPTION,U.S.,2016,%DIGITAL PARTNER S
270、UBSCRIBERS1,2034130152142LinksInstant ArticlesAVERAGE ENGAGEMENT(5-DAY)BY LINK TYPE,U.S.,2016,#SHARES2“POTENTIAL CONVERT”OUTREACH OPPORTUNITIESMore LikelyLess LikelyREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDSSources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=4,047)SUPER USERSPOTENTIA
271、L CONVERTSLONG-GAME TARGETSLOST CAUSES1.NATIONAL TV1.NATIONAL TV1.LOCAL TV1.LOCAL TV2.LOCAL NEWSPAPER2.LOCAL TV2.NATIONAL TV2.RADIO NEWS3.LOCAL TV3.NEWS PORTALS3.NEWS PORTALS3.NEWS PORTALSSUPER USERSPOTENTIAL CONVERTSLONG-GAME TARGETSLOST CAUSESFor some news segments,Super Users are scattered across
272、 platforms the best positioned franchises will have a foothold across media 1081.NATIONAL TV2.LOCAL TV3.LOCAL NEWSPAPERVarious consumer segments seek out national politics through consistent methodsbut in business/finance,sourcing among segments is quite differentMOST PREFERRED NEWS SOURCES BY NEWS
273、TYPE AND ACTIVATE CONSUMER SEGMENT,U.S.,2017ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLENATIONAL POLITICSBUSINESS AND FINANCEREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Brand lift estimates are based on weighted impressions,and are drawn from surveys with at least 400 respondents,at least 75 respondents in a DCN-exposed group,and that ran on
274、both DCN and non-DCN sites.Brand lift growth defined as an increase in user interaction with brand(e.g.through impressions or conversion)as a result of a campaign.2.Digital Content Next(DCN)is a consortium of digital publishers that are considered“premium publishers”,and is therefore a proxy for est
275、ablished news brands.Sources:Activate analysis,comScore,Digital Content Next,eMarketer,IABWell-known news brands will not only be preferred they will be the only news outlets capable of building an advertising business as Facebook and Google tighten their hold 109DIGITAL ADVERTISING SHARE BY COMPANY
276、,U.S.,2014-2019E,%SPEND20017E2018E2019E33%34%37%42%46%50%24%23%21%17%13%11%43%43%42%41%41%39%All OthersAVERAGE BRAND LIFT BY PUBLISHER TYPE,U.S.,2016,BRAND LIFT GROWTH153%89%Premium Publisher2Non-Premium PublisherREAL NEWS,FAKE FRIENDS1.Video price is a blended measurement of in-stream an
277、d out-stream ad types,and assumes purchase from a self-service programmatic platform.Display prices are also blended for ad types/sizes,and assume same purchase method.Sources:Activate analysis,Chartbeat,eMarketer,IAB,ReutersVideo provides news publishers with a valuable near-term advertising opport
278、unity,but the pivot to video”may clash with consumer preference for text 110Blended VideoDesktop DisplayMobile Display$1.76$2.32$11.32United StatesGlobal14%15%71%63%I find reading quicker and more convenientPre-roll ads tend to put me offVideos take too long to loadId rather watch on a bigger screen
279、Videos dont add value to a text storyIm concerned about cost(e.g.mobile)Videos often do not work properlyNo access to sound(e.g.at work)7%8%9%19%19%20%35%41%PREFERENCE FOR TEXT AND/OR VIDEO IN NEWS,U.S.AND GLOBAL,2016,%NEWS READERSMostly TextText and VideoMostly VideoDont KnowAVERAGE CPM FOR DIGITAL
280、 VIDEO AND DISPLAY ADS1,U.S.,Q4 2016,USDIn a Chartbeat/Reuters analysis of traffic on 30 news sites(including 15 hard news sites),video was present on 6.5%of pages,but only accounted for 2.5%of time spentDespite lower video news preference,higher CPM drives higher revenue potentialREASONS FOR NOT WA
281、TCHING ONLINE NEWS VIDEO,U.S.,2016,%NEWS READERS9%6%13%9% 111The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars1
282、8Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewers and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCom
283、merce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGEECOMMERCE1.Excluding travel and event tickets.Sources:Activate analysis,eCommerce Foundation,eMarketer,GfK,Invespcro,U.S.Census BureauOver the next four years,the global retail sector wil
284、l add$5 trillion;physical retail will take more growth dollars,while eCommerce will grow faster 112RETAIL SALES PROJECTIONS1,GLOBAL,2017E-2021E,TRILLIONS USD2017E2021E4.52.22.323.32.920.42523$22.7TCAGR 18%eCommercePhysical Retail$27.8TCAGR 3%eCommerce Share of Retail Sales10%16%CAGR 5%FORECASTACTIVA
285、TEECOMMERCE1.Excluding travel and tickets.2.Each 1%or 1%respectively.Sources:Activate analysis,Company financials,eCommerce Foundation,eMarketer,Fortune,GeekWire,Nasdaq,National Retail Federation,OfferUp,OLX,TechCrunchAlthough the top 15 eCommerce players generate over 60%of gross merchandise volume
286、,the business is likely to be very competitive 1132016 GLOBAL TRANSACTION VOLUME=$1.9TGMV(GROSS MERCHANDISE VOLUME)1,GLOBAL,2016,%GMV39%16%11%16%5%4%2%1%21%2Rest of the WebECOMMERCE1.Excluding travel and tickets.Sources:Activate analysis,BloomReach,Company financials,eMarketer,Fortune,GeekWire,Nasda
287、q,National Retail Federation,OfferUp,OLX,TechCrunchThese 15 players are largely marketplace platforms where tens of millions of sellers will continue to fuel growth 114BREAKDOWN OF TOP 15 ECOMMERCE COMPANY1 GMV BY BUSINESS MODEL,GLOBAL,2016,%GMVGLOBAL TOP 15 PLAYER GMV=$1.2TLargest eCommerce platfor
288、ms capture consumer attention and embed themselves in shopping habitsTHIRD-PARTY SELLERSDIRECT SALES16%84%SHARE OF ONLINE PRODUCT SEARCHES,U.S.,SEP 2016,%SEARCHES45%55%EST.MARKETPLACE GMV GROWTH,GLOBAL,2014-2016 2.5x2.2xEST.NUMBER OF SELLERS,GLOBAL,2016,MILLIONSMarketplaces enable tens of millions o
289、f sellers who allow platforms to grow by focusing on transactions and fulfillment without inventory risk25M5MMARKETPLACESRETAILECOMMERCESources:Activate analysis,Big Commerce,Capterra,CB Insights,Crunchbase,Forbes,Fortune,Luma Partners,Marketing Mag,New York Times,Wall Street Journal,Website Builder
290、 ExpertDELIVERY PLAYERSFULFILLMENT ENABLERSPAYMENT PROCESSORSSOCIAL INSPIRATORSAGGREGATORSSEARCH OPTIMIZERSSTORE CREATORSPLATFORM PROVIDERSDespite the dominance of the largest eCommerce players,there are extensive capabilities to enable other retailers to sell online 115TRANSACTIONDISCOVERYINFRASTRU
291、CTUREECOMMERCE CAPABILITY STACKECOMMERCESources:Activate analysis,Branded3,comScore,Gartner,Keyword Tool IO,L2,Manufacturing Association,MediaPost,Nielsen,Private LabelFor many categories,consumers will increasingly gravitate towards private labels,as platforms and retailers will favor discovery of
292、their own products 116Private label sales:$118B18%EXAMPLES OF PRIVATE LABEL BRANDS WITH HIGH VALUE AND QUALITY PERCEPTIONDish CareSurface CareAir CareLaundry Care36%34%18%14%10%29%17%6%BrandedNon-BrandedBRANDED VS.NON-BRANDED GROWTH IN SEARCH VOLUME,U.S.,APR 2016 VS.MAR 2017PRIVATE LABEL SHARE OF SA
293、LES FOR SUPERMARKET,MASS AND DRUG CHANNELS,U.S.,2016,%SALESGeneric products are likely to benefit from new discovery methods,such as smart speakers Platform owners will favor their own private labels first in query resultsSHIFTS IN SEARCH BEHAVIOR,2020Eof searches will be voice searchesof searches w
294、ill be done without a screen50%30%ECOMMERCE1.Time spent on website per visit across all platforms.2.Average time spent per visit across all Internet as defined by comScore.Sources:Activate analysis,comScoreSpecialty retailers and brands will continue to drive engagement and revenue through compellin
295、g and curated experiences 117GROWTH IN TIME SPENT PER SITE VISIT1,U.S.,AUG 2015-2017,%+14%+18%+18%+23%+24%+41%+45%+68%+140%Many specialty retailers grew time on site,even as average Internet time on site shrank,indicating that they have created more engaging experiences-10%Total Internet2KEY STRENGT
296、HS OF SPECIALTY RETAILIN DEMAND MERCHANDISEVALUE-ADD SERVICESPERSONALIZED AND CURATED SERVICE&EXPERIENCECONSUMER TRUST&REPUTATIONECOMMERCE1.Index based on measured consumer preferences from Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media R
297、esearch Study(n=4,047),Cowen and Company,eMarketer,Kantar Retail,Nielsen,U.S.Census BureauECOMMERCE GROWTH POTENTIAL BY CATEGORY,U.S.Category-specific consumer preferences will drive different eCommerce adoption curves 118Products are predominantly digitalProducts involve first-hand experience(e.g.f
298、ood freshness,used car condition)0%10%20%30%Category Share of eCommerce Sales 2016(%)Potential for Shift from Physical to eCommerce1HighLow70%ECOMMERCE GROWTH MATRIX BY CATEGORYAPPARELTOYS&GAMEELECTRONICSBOOKSSHOESBEAUTY&HEALTHSPORTING GOODSTOOLS&HOME IMPROVEMENTPREDOMINANTLY ONLINEADVANCED ECOMMERC
299、E ADOPTIONDELAYED ECOMMERCE ADOPTIONSLOW SHIFT TO ECOMMERCEACCELERATING SHIFT TO ECOMMERCEMUSIC&VIDEOFURNITURE&APPLIANCESAUTOMOTIVEGROCERYHOME&KITCHENECOMMERCE1.Index based on measured consumer preferences.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(n=4,047),DrugStore
300、News,eMarketer,Euromonitor,IBIS World,International Publishers Association,IRI,One Click Retail,PricewaterhouseCoopers,St.Louis FRED,U.S.Census Bureau,Venture Beat,WazirECOMMERCE ADOPTION FORECAST BY CATEGORY,U.S.Grocery will be the next eCommerce battleground,however,adoption will be slow 119WHAT C
301、OULD ACCELERATE THE PENETRATION OF ECOMMERCE IN GROCERY?CONSUMER TRUST in fresh food deliveryDELIVERY EXPERIENCE that is fast and satisfactory,particularly for fresh food offeringsPRICING that is consistent and competitiveProjected Speed Of Adoption1FastSlow2016 U.S.Offline Retail Sales(Billions USD
302、)GROCERY3%AUTOMOTIVE11%TOOLS&HOME IMPROVEMENT3%BOOKS67%ELECTRONICS23%TOYS&GAME21%HOME&KITCHEN8%SPORTING GOODS23%SHOES17%APPAREL20%1,2008004000MUSIC&VIDEO67%NEXT IN LINE,WITH SLOW ADOPTIONCategories are attractive because there are large offline revenues to captureBEAUTY&HEALTH18%2016 share of online
303、 sales in category%FURNITURE&APPLIANCES16%ECOMMERCESources:Activate analysis,Alexa,comScore,eMarketer,i-scoop,RetailDive,UPS,Walmart5%10%15%20%05001,0001,500IMPACT OF WALMARTS PHYSICAL FOOTPRINT ON ONLINE ENGAGEMENT BY REGION,U.S.,2016,#WALMART STORES VS.RATIO OF ONLINE VISITS(WALMART/AMAZON)Walmart
304、 and other physical retailers are likely to take advantage of their physical presence,ultimately driving higher revenue per shopper 120 drives more traffic to in regions with a larger store footprintOF CONSUMERS WHO PREFER TO BUY ONLINE RELY ON A PHYSICAL STORE whether before or after their purchase
305、 67%NoncontiguousSoutheastMidwestSouthwestNortheastMountainPacificNumber of SupercentersRatio of Online Visits /(%)ECOMMERCESources:Activate analysis,Amazon,Aptaris,Carrefour,eMarketer,Forbes,Lowes,MediaMarkt,New York Times,Oak Labs,Philipps,Retention Science Offers services such as product informat
306、ion,recommendations,and seamless checkout Feeds recommendations and promotions to consumers based on shopping history across channels Ensures consistent competitive prices with online retailers Minimizes showrooming Assists shopper with product discovery both in-store and online (e.g.at home)PERSONA
307、LIZED IN-STORE TARGETINGPhysical retail will strengthen its hold with the integration of technology into in-store experiences 121PRODUCT INFORMATION AND DISCOVERYCUSTOMIZED SERVICE AND EXPERIENCEAugmented Reality mobile technology(e.g.Lowes)DYNAMIC PRICINGDigital price displaySmart mirror(e.g.Oak La
308、bs)In-store apps powered by visible light communication(e.g.MediaMarkt,Edeka,Carrefour)ECOMMERCEAUGMENTED REALITY SHOPPING GAME:TMALLSources:Activate analysis,Alibaba,CNBC,CNN,Internet of Business,JD.com,Retail in Asia,TechNodeAsia is leading the way for the adoption of digital commerce innovations,
309、including the integration of physical and digital 122SMART SUPERMARKET:ALIBABAS HEMA SUPERMARKETNew time-and cost-efficient delivery methods improve service area(e.g.rural area access)and quality of delivered goods(e.g.fresh goods)Brings new experiences such as 3D and game-based brick and mortar sho
310、pping to customers,increasing visitsEnables cashless and automated checkout and delivery,while maintaining essential aspects of the in-store experienceROBOT DELIVERYAERIAL DRONE DELIVERYVIRTUAL REALITY STORE:ALIBABA BUY+CASHIER LESS MOBILE STORE:MOBY MARTADVANCED LOGISTICS AND INVESTMENT IN TECHNOLO
311、GYPHYSICAL AND DIGITAL INTEGRATIONENGAGEMENT ELEMENTSECOMMERCESources:Activate analysis,AdWeek,Alibaba,JD.com,Line,Nasdaq GlobeNewswire,Quartz,South China Morning Post,TechCrunch,Tencent,Yahoo FinanceCONNECTS WITH CONSUMERS BY PROVIDING ENGAGING EXPERIENCESPROVIDES SUPERIOR CUSTOMER SERVICE BY OWNIN
312、G LOGISTICSIn general,Asia is providing a potential roadmap for the future of eCommerce,focused on shopper engagement and seamless service 123ALIBABA ECOSYSTEMJD.COM ECOSYSTEMintroduced,platform for third-party brands and retailersmarketplace foundedlaunched,a third-party online payment platformSmar
313、t TV OS introduced20032004200520062007200820092000162017Aliwang launched,instant messaging tool for buyer-seller communicationLaiwang launched,mobile social networking appgrocery brand launchedAlisports established,includes TV and digital sports rightsTmall Medical,B2C pharmacy
314、,transferred to Ali Health,providing widest range of pharmaceutical and health products in ChinaAcquired South China Morning Post and other media assetsRevealed first“Internet car”Roewe RX5,in collaboration with SAICBecame controlling shareholder in department store chain IntimeTmall Genie X1 Smart
315、speaker announcedPartnership with retail conglomerate BailianAcquired EJoyBuilt out logistics networkOffered general merchandise to become a full-fledged eCommerce platformOnline marketplace platform launchedTencent partnership,exclusive access to WeChat&Mobile QQ PlatformsAcquired stake in grocery
316、chain Yonghui with two-hour delivery serviceDingDong smart speaker launchedLaunched robot&drone deliveryWhite Glove high-end delivery service launchedInvestment in FarFetch,marketplace for luxury brands“Luxury Pavillion”platform launched Taobao mobile app launchedToplife launched,a dedicated platfor
317、m for global luxury brands with customized online flagship storesYihaodian acquired,Walmarts Chinese eCommerce marketplaceInvestment in FruitDay,Chinas largest online produce 124The Most Important Insights for Tech and Media in 2018$300 Billion in Tech and Media Growth Dollars3There are 31 Hours in
318、a Day7Super Users:A Lot More Time,a Lot More Money12Smart Speaker Battles are about the Great Digital Assistant Wars18Reality Computing:VR/AR Move from Entertainment to the Next Big Computing Platform33Big Influencers and Media Brands will Rule Web Video49Premium Video:The Chase for Television Viewe
319、rs and Television Dollars62Sports is the Ultimate Moat80News Brands will Beat Fake News(Spread by Fake Friends)93eCommerce:More than Two Trillion Dollars To Go111In an Era of Voice Control,Look to Podcasting to Engage Users124PAGEPODCASTSPodcast listening will dramatically increase powered by more c
320、ontent,more listeners,and increased daily usage 125Sources:Activate analysis,Bridge Ratings,Edison ResearchMONTHLY PODCAST LISTENERS AND ANNUAL LISTENING TIME,U.S.,2014-2021E4B8B12B16B30M60M90M120M20017E2018E2019E2020E2021E15B14B12B10B8B6B5B4B112M97M87M79M67M58M46M41M112M97M87M79M67M58M46
321、M41MPODCAST MONTHLY LISTENERSANNUAL HOURSFORECASTACTIVATEPODCASTSLOCATION OF PODCAST LISTENING,U.S.,2017,%LISTENERSSmart speakers and connected cars will also spur increased listening and adoption 1261.60dB is a recent Google acqui-hire.Sources:Activate analysis,Activate 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Res
322、earch Study(n=419),NPR/Edison ResearchCarTrain/Bus/PlaneWalkingBedroomLiving RoomKitchenBathroomGymWorkOther18%25%29%38%15%17%46%22%25%27%COMMUTEHOME Smart speaker owners are 1.6x more likely to listen to podcasts than non-smart speaker owners Smart speaker short-form audio content could increase li
323、stening through curated news summaries(e.g.Alexa Flash Briefings,Google Assistant,60dB1 Quick Hits)PODCASTSNumber of Podcasts250,000500,000750,0001,000,00020017E2018E2019E2020E2021EThe actual number of podcasts will increase as well;consumers will listen to a broad range of podcast genres
324、 1271.Podcast genre distribution based on iTunes library.Sources:Activate analysis,Apple announcements,“How Podcasts Have Changed in 10 Years:By the Numbers”by Josh Morgan,iTunes storeNUMBER OF PODCASTS,U.S.,2014-2021EReligion&SpiritualitySociety&CultureMusicArtsEducationComedyBusinessTV&FilmSports&
325、RecreationTechnologyNews&PoliticsGames&HobbiesHealthScience&MedicineKids&FamilyGovernment&Organizations1%1%3%4%5%5%5%5%6%6%7%8%9%10%11%14%PODCAST GENRES1,U.S.,2017,%TOTAL PODCASTSFORECASTACTIVATEPODCASTSThis increased listening is despite the fact that discovery is difficult today;easier discovery w
326、ill accelerate and expand listening growth 1281.Most non-listeners who selected“other”indicated that they were not interested or did not have enough time.2.Most listeners who selected“other”indicated that they did not have enough time or desired more relevant content.Sources:Activate analysis,Activa
327、te 2017 Consumer Tech&Media Research Study(Left:n=700;Right:n=419)AMONG PODCAST LISTENERS FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED PODCAST CONSUMPTIONRecommendationsKnowing which apps to useEasier to use appsBetter connectivityPre-installed appSmart speaker functionalityOther17%15%16%17%23%26%31%Knowing
328、 which apps to useEasier to use appsPre-installed appRecommendationsBetter connectivitySmart speaker functionalityOther34%9%11%14%15%18%34%AMONG PODCAST NON-LISTENERS FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO PODCAST LISTENING12Discovery-related factorsPODCASTSTotal Hours:TV Episodes and FilmsTotal Hours:Top 10 Po
329、dcastsPodcasts are amplifying hit entertainment properties inspired fans and influencers are producing their own podcasts and cultivating interest between franchise releases 1291.Total hours measured as of October 2017.Sources:Activate analysis,IMDb,iTunes Store,Movies by Minutes,The RingerTOTAL HOU
330、RS OF STUDIO FRANCHISES AND ASSOCIATED TOP 10 FAN-PRODUCED PODCASTS1632018Fan-produced podcast “Star Wars Minute”dedicates each episode to critiquing each minute of the Star Wars franchise,and garners 100K+downloads weekly.This format is used by many other fan-produced podcasts(e.g.Back to the Futur
331、e,Harry Potter,Indiana Jones,Lord of the Rings).1,7731,5741,715PODCASTSEvery media and tech company will extend their consumer experiences through podcasting 1301.For story development and production,eBay,Blue Apron,Gatorade,and Microsoft partnered with Gimlet,and GE partnered with Panoply.2.NPR met
332、rics were for the month of September 2017.Sources:Activate analysis,PodtracCOMPANY1 AND ASSOCIATED PODCASTAPPARENT BUSINESS STRATEGY LEVERAGE PODCASTS AS A PROMOTIONAL TOOL Super-serve loyalists Tap new potential customer segments Drive subscriptions Increase donations-NPR has the highest audience s
333、hare among media companies/publishers with 13.3M monthly uniques and 99M global downloads2 DRIVE INCREMENTAL REVENUE Mid-roll ads within podcasts -Native advertising format supports higher engagement Grow advertising revenue by increasing traffic to core site Podcast-first companies(networks)may extend reach to digital platforms Crooked Media has launched a website Crowdfunding for lesser-known cr