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1、PREDICTIONS2024Exploration Generates ProgressWhen the early explorers faced down the unknown on the high seas,they werent just trying to get somewhere they were trying to find the safest and fastest passage.To succeed,they had to continually forge ahead,but they also needed to be ready to adjust,rea
2、ssess,and potentially launch themselves down another path.Luckily,new tools allowed explorers to move faster and undertake formerly unthinkable journeys.In 2024,business leaders like you will need to emulate these explorers to succeed.Youre now armed with the greatest technological advancement since
3、 the internet:generative AI.Its not the time to“wait and see”how this technology shakes out.Generative AI is here.Its up to you to discover its value.Experimentation with generative AI will occur amid a tense social and economic background:High-stakes political elections around the world will create
4、 moments of acute societal tension;employee engagement and sentiment are likely to slump;and inflation will continue to cast a long shadow,with the overall macroeconomic picture remaining cloudy.Despite this uncertainty,the greatest risk is to wait by the shore hoping that someone else will figure o
5、ut the way first.Generative AI will be the fulcrum that businesses rely on to enhance,empower,and engage employees and customers with or without you.Embrace the misstep,and think big.Welcome to 2024.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.2Generative AI(genAI)is the talk of the town.As is of
6、ten the case with poorly understood tech that promises to change the world,there is a flurry of consumer concern about ethics and human impact.As one member of Forresters ConsumerVoices Market Research Online Community told us,“People need to learn and think for themselves.GenAI is only helpful as a
7、n additional tool,not a replacement for human thoughts,intelligence,and interaction.”Forrester finds that 50%of US and 43%of French online adults who have heard of AI say that generative AI poses a threat to society.That number is not going to decrease anytime soon.Yet a vast majority of these skept
8、ics will,over the course of 2024,use(and love)generative AI whether they know it or not.Tech companies are embedding genAI capabilities into their platforms and tools and into the apps and products that consumers use every day:Adobe Photoshops generative fill feature works like magic;Google search a
9、llows users to opt in for Bard;and LinkedIns AI-generated content helps create posts for users.Like it or not,know it or not,genAI will seep into consumers lives seamlessly and invisibly.Generative AI will seep into consumers lives.60%of skeptics will use(and love)generative AI knowing it or not.202
10、3 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.3Building on multiple investments over the past decade,generative AI is poised to increase productivity across IT operations.Current projects already cite improvements of up to 40%in software development tasks.Visionary tech execs will seize this opportun
11、ity to strategically realign IT resources to unlock the immense creative potential within their teams not just among developers but across all IT roles.They will leverage this AI moment to create an environment that promotes innovation,interdisciplinary teamwork,continuous learning,and alignment wit
12、h the broader business strategy.This shift in focus will free up to 50%more time for employees to engage in creative problem-solving,driving customer-centric innovation and creating unprecedented business value.Businesses will benefit as their tech teams provide products and services that deliver be
13、tter,more innovative customer experiences.Behold the age of creativity.AI will spur the age of creativity.Enterprise AI initiatives will boost productivity and creative problem-solving by 50%.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.4In 2024,agencies will invest heavily to build bespoke,enter
14、prise-ready AI solutions,formed by a combination of foundational AI models from tech partnerships,their own audience and creative intelligence,clients first-party data,and the brands standards.These customized brand language models will enable marketers to(finally)scale personalized marketing campai
15、gns and brand experiences.We predict that the top 10 agencies will spend a combined$50 million in partnerships to build custom AI solutions for enterprise clients.The announcement of ChatGPT Enterprise only accelerates investments.Several agency holding companies,including Accenture,Dentsu,Omnicom,P
16、ublicis,and WPP,are well underway in customizing their solutions with foundational AI models,having inked deals with multiple AI providers such as Adobe,Anthropic,AWS,Google,IBM,Meta,Microsoft,NVIDIA,and OpenAI.We anticipate agency networks like DEPT,Horizon Media,Media.Monks,Stagwell,and Tinuiti to
17、 also introduce competitive brand language models.Agencies will bet big on“brand-specific”AI models.The top 10 agencies will spend$50 million in partnerships to build custom AI solutions for enterprise clients.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.5The mad dash for AI has demand for GPUs a
18、nd related chip production at its limits.With constrained capacity to make more of these chips,AI processing will hit a wall in 2024.This shortage will most acutely affect large buyers such as Meta,OpenAI,Tesla,and various cloud providers.Lofty ambitions for billion-parameter large language model(LL
19、M)applications will feel the pinch,but more modest enterprise efforts should be fine.Technology providers like Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise partner with chipmakers such as Intel and NVIDIA to power these smaller-scale enterprise applications these relationships are sacred,with significant att
20、ention on the robust supply chains involved.Expect a pragmatic approach to AI,driven by availability,silicon economics,and sustainability.The popular NVIDIA H100 AI processor sells for more than$40,000,a price that is frequently inflated due to demand.It also burns up to 700 watts of power.These thi
21、ngs are hot,so building enough compute capacity for LLMs will prove prohibitively expensive and ecologically abusive.Forrester predicts that these hardware issues will tamper ambitions and that aspirants will be forced to prioritize applications,settling on those with the most obvious ROI.AI process
22、ing will hit a wall in 2024.Limited chip availability will drive common sense and tamper down irrational AI expectations.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.6The transformational shift of foundation models and genAI is all the rage.Hyperscalers have all the building blocks for data scien
23、ce,except for prompt engineering.In 2024,all hyperscalers will announce either a preview or general availability of prompt engineering i.e.,the processing of text so that it can be understood by a genAI model.For example,Google Cloud already put grounding prompt in the product vision of its AI Platf
24、orm,while Baidu AI Cloud published training courses on prompt engineering for its Wenxin series.Enterprise adoption will be limited,however.Most(80%)will add prompt engineering talent internally using business SMEs and data scientists to accelerate model grounding and value delivery.What is driving
25、this?Due to incomplete contextual data and limited experience in natural language and prompt engineering among data scientists,cloud providers first-gen prompt engineering services will not suffice when it comes to addressing tailored,fine-tuned needs.The clouds will launch prompt engineering servic
26、es to no avail.80%of firms will add prompt engineering talent internally to accelerate value delivery.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.7Backstage is an open source developer portal created by Spotify and donated to the CNCF(Cloud Native Computing Foundation).Its purpose is to consolid
27、ate the discovery,creation,and management of developer resources such as Git repos,build pipelines,APIs,and infrastructure automations into a single portal that all developers can use as a service.The number of top-tier companies investing in a Backstage implementation is astounding;based on forks l
28、isted in GitHub,they include American Airlines,Ericsson,Lowes,and Mercedes-Benz.In 2024,we expect Backstage adoption to expand and become the number one framework for IT infrastructure and operations teams to automate and expose infrastructure capabilities in the form of a developer portal.We also e
29、xpect that this will begin to chip away at internal API portal vendors as IT shops seek a one-stop portal for all their internal development needs.Backstage will take center stage.Backstage will be the#1 framework for self-service developer portals.8 2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.T
30、he global average customer experience(CX)will improve for the first time in three years the last time that gains outpaced losses was in 2021.Most brands CX will remain flat,however,and the number of brands that get better and worse will be equal.Improvements will be most pronounced in Europe and APA
31、C.In North America,the US will improve,while Canada will continue to struggle.The key to many of 2024s improvements will be behind-the-scenes genAI that augments customer service agents capabilities.This will help agents contribute to success in common top drivers of CX:answering questions faster an
32、d better,resolving problems on first contact,communicating clearly,and leaving the customer feeling respected.To help ensure that new customer service technologies contribute to the companys CX strategy,CX leaders should design,execute,and measure new or reimagined customer service experiences.GenAI
33、 will augment customer service agents capabilities.CX will improve for the first time in three years.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.92024 will be a busy year for marketers as four US state laws take effect,the EU undertakes a review of GDPR enforcement,and Google rolls out Privacy S
34、andbox to Chrome users.As they try to stay on the right side of company and regulatory policies,marketers are increasingly involving their privacy counterparts in marketing strategy discussions and campaign approval processes,as they should.But an ongoing privacy talent shortage will frustrate marke
35、ters as they run up against privacy teams that are already stretched thin balancing company priorities and that lack marketing proficiency only 17%of privacy decision-makers say that their organizations privacy team has marketing competencies or skills.To bust this bottleneck,five large B2C brands w
36、ill earmark a portion of their marketing budget specifically to fund additional headcount to the privacy team and/or upskill existing privacy colleagues.Marketers will become privacy champions.CMOs at five large consumer brands will fund dedicated privacy resources.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Ri
37、ghts Reserved.10Buyers aged 25 to 44 will make up 75%of business buying teams in 2024.When engaged in face-to-face buying,Forresters data shows that these buyers find personal interactions with product experts more meaningful than all other in-person activities.We expect that the need to address the
38、se preferences will become an imperative as Millennial buyers increasingly shift into decision-making roles.We predict that 40%of younger buyers will rate person-to-person meetings with product experts as their most meaningful personal interactions.As a result,successful sellers will need to match b
39、uyer needs to appropriate offerings and their representative experts earlier in the sales process.To alleviate buyer friction points in a smarter,more seamless manner,top sellers should forge effective partnerships with these experts and effectively orchestrate all person-to-person interactions.Sell
40、ers who practice this will see their time spent on direct buyer engagement rise to 25%or more of their overall work week.Generational differences will alter B2B buying preferences.Two out of five Millennial buyers will demand early access to B2B product experts.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights
41、 Reserved.11In 2024,many teams that drive employee experience (EX)will suffer from a lack of funding or focus.Take diversity,equity,and inclusion(DEI):The percentage of companies that funded a DEI function with an endorsed strategy and personnel dropped from 33%in 2022 to 27%in 2023.We predict that
42、this number will fall to 20%by the end of 2024 in the wake of cuts that disproportionately affect DEI teams.We also expect the trend of heavy attrition rates among DEI leaders already seen at Apple,Disney,and Zoom to continue.Some companies will default to“check the box”DEI efforts such as heritage
43、days,though DEI-influenced recruiting will continue at leading firms because its good for business.Tech investments wont drive EX forward,either:While 66%of technology decision-makers who work in software say that they will invest in EX/human capital management software next year,those investments w
44、ont be used to their full advantage.Many companies will prioritize spending that makes HR functions efficient over spending that improves EX outcomes.This will create an opportunity for companies that consciously choose to zig toward EX while so many others are zagging away from it.An“EX Winter”will
45、 freeze employee experience investments.Only 20%of companies will fund a DEI function with an endorsed strategy and personnel a 7-point drop from 2023 levels.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.12The Netherlands leads the continent in its support for flexible working,with 74%of workers a
46、llowed to work remotely in 2023.Hybrid working is less common in other European countries,which brings the current European average to 30%.Only 11%of European business leaders expect employees to return to the office full-time.For comparison,in 2023,28%of all US employees workdays are spent working
47、from home;that number is 8%in South Korea and 26%in Australia.We predict that Europe will outpace the US in flexible working in 2024,with 40%of Europeans working remotely at least some of the time.We also expect additional flexible working legislation to come into force in the UK and the EU next yea
48、r.European firms will need to invest in a new model of collaboration to empower their hybrid workforce.Europe will lead hybrid work adoption.40%of European employees will work from home regularly.13 2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.Crippling heat waves in 2023 put climate-related issu
49、es at the heart of organized labor strikes and contract negotiations globally,such as UPS workers in the US,tourism workers in Greece,and bus drivers in Italy.Until now,climate-triggered strikes have primarily come from industries such as construction,delivery,and food preparation,where employees ei
50、ther work outdoors or in environments that arent climate-controlled.But thats changing.With heat waves now affecting education,commuting,and other aspects of everyday life,we predict that non-union workers will use organized labors blueprint,employing legal precedent established by a Montana state c
51、ourt and leaning on US OSHA protections“to assure safe and healthful working conditions”in order to force their companies into policy changes and investments to adapt to the ongoing effects of climate change.Prepare by adding climate risk to your risk register and evaluating the impact of climate ri
52、sk on employee experience.Climate risk will become employee experience risk.Employee action will force adaptation accommodations at five Fortune 500 firms.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.14In a world of misinformation fueled by AI-generated images,deepfakes,and faux human influencers
53、,together with social medias disintegrating reputation,news outlets such as The New York Times and the BBC,as well as independent journalists,will become coveted sources of information.According to Forresters 2023 data,social medias reputation is disintegrating across the globe:81%of online adults i
54、n the US,the UK,Spain,and Italy agree that there is a lot of fake news and misinformation on social media.The numbers arent much better in metro China,where 63%of online adults agree with this sentiment.Due to these circumstances,there will be a much-needed rebound for trust in media.This resurgence
55、 must serve as a bellwether for social media and tech firms to prioritize source credibility and data provenance.As the line between real and fake blurs further,organizations must double down on marketing activities aligned to tier-one media and ensure that they are seen as reliable and trusted sour
56、ces for journalists,buyers,investors,and other critical audiences.Brand safety concerns should also encourage orgs to dissociate from media that fails to quell the tide of fake news.Customer trust will remain up for grabs.News organizations will have a resurgence as trusted sources of information.20
57、23 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.15Customer trust is an imperative,not a slogan.Misinformation,lack of transparency,price discrimination,data security breaches,privacy violations,fraud,scandals,and corruption are but a few of the symptoms that epitomize the decline in public trust and e
58、mphasize its fragility.Trust should be at the heart of any organizations strategy,because without it,customers,employees,partners,and the public at large will simply disengage.Doing right by customers,on the other hand,earns their trust and loyalty.But how many APAC multinational corporations are wi
59、lling to take customer trust seriously and imbue it within their corporate culture?We estimate that by the end of 2024,25%of APACs largest companies will vocalize their strategic commitment to customer trust,but only 5%will effectively codify that commitment through measurement and organizational KP
60、Is.APAC firms will struggle to operationalize customer trust.25%of APAC multinational corporations will adopt customer trust as a key mission,but only 5%will measure it.2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Reserved.16Regulators have been busy with genAI.The OpenAI investigation in Italy is ongoing
61、,and lawyers in Poland are dealing with a new lawsuit for several potential GDPR violations.As a result,the European Data Protection Board has launched a task force to coordinate enforcement actions against ChatGPT,and the US Federal Trade Commission is also investigating OpenAI.While OpenAI has the
62、 technical and financial resources to defend itself against regulators,other third-party apps running on ChatGPT do not.In fact,some apps bear a greater risk of getting fined than OpenAI,as they introduce risk via third-party tech providers but lack the resources and expertise to mitigate it appropr
63、iately.Companies must identify apps that could increase their risk exposure and double down on third-party risk management.Regulators will have genAI in their sights.An app using ChatGPT will be fined for its handling of personal identifiable information.17 2023 Forrester Research,Inc.All Rights Res
64、erved.Ready to get started now?Give us a call:Americas:+1 615.395.3401 EMEA:+44(0)207 323 7741 Australia:+61 2 9159 4925 Singapore:+65 6426 7060 India:+91 1142840027Explore Forrester DecisionsDiscover More Complimentary Predictions 2024 ResourcesLet Us Know Directly How We Can HelpLEARN MOREEXPLORE
65、NOWCONTACT USSeize The GenAI Opportunity And More In 2024Forrester Decisions Research ServicesForrester Decisions is designed for moments like this.Our research services represent a new option for business and technology leaders who need help solving problems,making decisions,and taking action to de
66、liver results.Get a winning combination of research,models,frameworks,and hands-on guidance that will empower your organization to gain value from genAI,tackle your most critical business priorities,and achieve your desired outcomes.B2B Marketing Executives B2B Sales B2C Marketing Executives Customer Experience Demand&ABM Digital Business&Strategy Partner Ecosystem Marketing Portfolio Marketing Product Management Revenue Operations Security&Risk Technology Architecture&Delivery Technology Executives Forrester Market Insights