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1、?th?“?”?GIP?.I?.1?.3?.3?.12?.14?.19?.19?.22?.27?.27?.50?.65?.66?.71?.75?.75?.79?.82 I?2021?II?1?2021?TTF?2021?TTF?3?3?15.5?/?12?21?187.8?/?12.1?2021?3.4?1.7?25%?35%?2050?2019?65%?20%?2050?2019?15?1?2?2022?6?9?132?74?2?2030?17?3?COP26?Glasgow Climate Pact?70?Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Stat

2、ement?2021?21?4?2035?“?”?2025?23%?31%?3?1?20?2020?285?20052020?150?6.6%?20?3?5?2025?334?2?2000?75%?2020?66.5%?1/3?20?3?6?1?80%?2020?40%?2025?62.4%?20?1/5?3?2005?19.1%?2020?33.5%?10?2020?2030?1.5%?2005?24.9?0?2020?59.5?22.9?5?10?2020?2020?82%?11.8?6?2019?2015?50%?4?17.7%?21.7%?6?2025?30?37.6%?12.4?6.

3、7?4?20052020?2.1.1?2.1.1 20052020?ASEAN Power Updates 2021?1?2021?140?2020?2021?70?76%?86%?2.2?2021?5 2.1.1?2.1.1?0 0 0?16285 11839 36520?0 0 900?0 0 21225?655 0 12551?6726 0 700?0 1765 4880?18160 9840 48565?3365 1621 15788?45191 25065 141129?1?2?IEA?7?10.6?8?10?50%?88%?COP26?10?28?17?2025?2.1.2?1?G

4、lobal Coal Plant Tracker?Global Gas Plant Tracker?Global Solar Power Tracker?Global Wind Power Tracker?Global Power Plant Database?6?2.1.2?3?70%?14%?8%?15%?40%?2.1.3?7?2.1.3?4?100?Global Entrepreneurship Monitor?9?2021?17?100?2020?2.1.2?8?2.1.2?0 0 0?0 0 0?4800 0 350?0 1765 4880?6650 3635 2200?16285

5、 11839 36520?1500 3442 1950?0 0 0?9980 388 275?6726 0 700?11806 650 4620?0 0 900?400 0 0?0 0 21225?10560 8240 0?3365 1621 15788?55215 1050 45710?655 0 12551?0 0 0?18160 9840 48565?100911 17405 55105?45191 25065 140304?1?2005?2020?17?59?2020?2006?6?2016?26?83%?47%?46%?2020?34%?10?70%?20002019?2.1.4?2

6、0052025?2.1.5?9?2.1.4 20002019?2.1.5 20052025?2025?2?2010?100?2015?708?1894?2020?0030000040000050000060000070000080000020002005201020152019CoalOilBiomassWasteHydroGeothermalSolarWind 10 2665?22942?2020?95%?20102015?5?2020?16656?1486?72.6%?55.7%?RE data Explorer?10?150?/?10538?34.5%?12.4%?

7、200?11?3?2005?2829?2020?4059?2025?8113?2021?25%?2006?1.6?2016?7.2?12?1?90%?13?11?14 2?2275?1120?50%?755?15?2018?2019?250?2021?2.1.3?2.1.3 2021?200?525?230?120?700?300?200?2275?The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook?3?2019?16?12?7?5?4?16?4?Northeast Group?2018?2027?98?17?20162025?20162020?20212025?2050?13?2060

8、?2070?2025?23%?35%?18?19?2020?2030?2020?2030?2030?2022?1?1?14?6?20?21?7?1?60%?160?50?2.3.1?2009?2021?2011?15?2.3.1 20012021?20012021?2.3.2?20012021?2.3.3?20012021?2.3.4?2.3.2 20012021?20012021?00000400005000060000?16?2.3.3 20012021?2.3.4 20012021?2?2.3.5?17?50%?2.3.5 20012021?3?65%?2001?7

9、0%?2001?0.9?2015?4.5?2015?2021?2015?6?7?65%?1?18?20?2021?20?60?40%?2?2021?4?2020?2020?20012021?2.3.6?2.3.6 20012021?19?IEA?20?6%?22?2025?2016?95%?IEA?4%?2040?2020?2040?15%?50%?26?1.5?2?/?6?7?/?2025?23%?20?2040?37%?10.4%?2020?2025?32?83?59?77?3.1.1?21?3.1.1?2015?2035?63%?30%?40%?55%?2030?70%?15?2030?

10、35%?45%?2005?2025?31%?2030?41.7%?59.1%?2030?55%?6.5%?3.5%?2030?2?2005?36%?2030?20%?25%?2037?30%?36%?20%?2036?25%?2030?15%?20%?2050?25%?30%?2030?31?38?2030?4?2045?36?2030?29%?41%?2025?23%?2030?31%?2025?20%?2030?9.4?30%?2025?30%?The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook?22?2018?2010?73.8%?22%?2016?0.19?/?0.10?/?20

11、21?2022?15?23?2040?2017?375?922?47%?4.1%?IEA?23?2?1715?2060?3.7?Carbon Tracker?24?70?1240?25?26?27?24?28?2025?8?25?IEA?2030?1300?1900?20?29?27?1986?2002?2020?GDP?2.7?2800?2011?32%?2020?2%30?2020?99%?31?“?”32?2020?25%?2021?20212030?2030?2045?2021?COP26?2050?2010?2019?1004?2401?10.2%?28?GDP?1.8?2020?2

12、.4%?2021?3.9%?2021?2567?2021?99%?4.1.1?4.1.1?4.1.2?4.1.3?4.1.2 2018?29?4.1.3 20002018?/?2010?2020?10?2010?6400?2021?69300?2000?54%?2005?37%?39%?2010?2015?2005?2015?9?2005?1500?2015?13250?33%?2000-2020?4.1.4?20112020?PDP7?2030?43%?4.1.1?2016?2020?2019?2020?2020?17500?2015?8.4?25.4%?2020?30.3%?29.7%?2

13、5.4%?10.3%?2021?4000?26.9%?21015?30?A?B?4.1.4 20002020?A?B?%?20112020?4.1.1?2020?PPA?9.35?/?2019?6?30?2017?4?11?-TTg?2020?7.09?/?2020?12?31?2020?4?6?-TT g?2020?8.38?/?2020?12?31?2020?7.8?/?2018?11?1?2021?6?29?-TTg?31?2020?PPA?8.5?/?2021?11?1?2018?11?1?2018?9?10?-TTg?2020?9.8?/?2021?11?1?2018?11?1?20

14、21?14?2020?20%?2021?4.1.5?4.1.5 20052021?2005?7?1?2013?7?3?2013?63/2013/QD-TTg?4.1.6?32?4.1.6?100?44%?11?14%?110?38%?2?4.1.7?8266/QD-BCT?5?4.1.7?2020?8?7?2093/QD-BCT?33?4.1.8?4.1.8?4.1.9?2?2 2017?11?24?34?2015?2019?“?”?5?2019?53%?/?35?4.1.9?2030?2050?55?“?2030?2045?”?COP26?2050?21?40?20212030?8?2030

15、?2050?2015?11?25?2068/Q?-TTg?33?36?55?34?2030?15%?20%?2045?25%?30%?35?2011?2030?2050?2014?2014?2020?2021?2030?2015?21?36?2030?7.874?8%?25%?2020?2030?9.279?2030?9%?27%37?4.1.2?37?4.1.2?%?MtCO2?%?MtCO2?%?MtCO2?5.5 51.5 11.2 104.3 16.7 155.8?0.7 6.8 2.8 25.8 3.5 32.6?1.0 9.3 1.3 11.9 2.3 21.2?1.0 9.1 2

16、.6 24.0 3.6 33.1?0.8 7.2 0.1 0.8 0.9 8.0?9.0 83.9 18.0 166.8 27.0 250.8?“*”?COP26?2050?21?40?8?8?2021?10?8?20212030?2045?2021?2?8?COP26?2050?2022?4?27?8?20202030?8.6%?2020?2152?2030?4912?20302045?4%?2045?8869?20202030?38?9.4%?20302045?5.0%?2030?5304?2045?11011?2030?2040?10?4.1.3?4.1.3?8?2022?4?2020

17、2025 2030 2035 2040 2045?20859 26795 28946 33654 34414 35139?22070 28867 37467 37467 37467 37467?7398 14386 38830 46330 46330 46330?-150 5100 19500 27300?1624 561-?538 13616 16121 26000 41300 55950?-7000 16000 38500 64500?8736 8736 8736 25034 47893 75987?7755 7755 7755 7932 13273 20679?W2?338 980 12

18、30 3090 4960 5210?-2450 7350 17550 28950?1272 4453 5000 7742 10242 11042?1450 2700 3300 4500 4500 70590 107599 156385 218999 315929 413054?2030?2045?217?2020?12.75?2030?7?2045?39?64?2045?56%?2020?30%?2020?44%?2045?27%?20212030?15.4?8?2022?4?4.1.4?4.1.4?8?2022?4?2020 2025 2030 2045?24%20.2%15.2%6.7%?

19、31.3%26.8%24.0%9.1%?10.5%13.4%24.9%17.8%?0.8%12.7%14.8%29.2%?23.4%15.3%10.5%23.4%?6.0%5.7%4.1%3.0%?4.1%6.0%6.5%10.8%?2030?8400?4000?8?220?500?3?500?1?2?3?220?4.1.5?2020?4.1.5?2020?2020 500?8527 500?42900 220?18477 220?67824 40?20112020?8?20212030?20312045?N?1?20212030?2020?1.6?20312045?4.1.10?4.1.10

20、?2020?2020?1?20212030?1465?1010?144?20312045?3460?140?20212030?14.4?20312045?12.3?6?127780?2017?245960?41?100?/?20112020?20212030?8%?2030?2045?2050?44%?2021?59%?46.3%?9?7.5?/?WB?42?3?ESI?3?43?IFC?7?ADB?Tranche 3?”?GIZ?240?2013?2017?44?4E?EC?2017?8?45?E-Enhance?8?2021?JICA?1?2?USAID?I?46?II?VUES?UNDP

21、?LED?MBI?8?VEPG?2017?6?2017?6?21?47?FCO?COP 26?20192030?48?DANIDA?“?III”?SNV?1995?2020?55000?1000?307?700?50%?2020?38?99%?EPC?-?-?39?49?2028?8?2045?64.5?50?2017?2025?2050?23%?31%?29%?41%?2050?20212030?2030?40.6?51.6%?2030?24.8%?19.5?13.8?41?60%?20212030?2038?47%?2022?7%?42?2010?2005?1.8?2000?0.4?63%

22、?19%?4.2.1?51?2010?4.2.1?1990-2018?157%?947MtCO2e?2030?1.5C?1.5C?2016?1?2012?1.453?2000?0.452?47.8%?34.9%?2016?1.457?43.6%?36.9%?52?4.2.2?2020?40%?4.2.2?2018?54%?26%?11%?8%?2040?20%?2018?2040?1100?/?2040?3000?/?169%?2015?0.587?2040?1.581?84%?2040?1.077?43?53 37.3%?IEA44?2015?2050?3.0%?2.8%?0.8%?1.4%

23、?0.3%?2007?2070?2030?29%?41%?45?COP26?2030?9.3?426?2020?15%?3100?2020?28?50%?2021?1.?54?18%?35%?2014?1670?/?2025?2250?/?2025?GDP?5%46?COP26?2060?4.2.4?2040?47?70%?60?90?55 BAU=?APS=?4.2.4?48?2.?2015?2.8?20162025?8?4?56?20162025?1.?30%?350?2040?1204?0.044?/?0.029?/?49?2016?0.03?/?57?50?2021-2030?51.6

24、%?20.9?20212025?2035?2025?23%?20262030?20362040?66%?20412045?58?93%?20512060?51?2.?2016?13?3673?6?2016?4?6?2250?2014?3489?2020?10800?2020?16000?59?52?IEA?53?54?55?56?57?100%?58?59?60?60?2018?3?12.5?2018?32%?25%?15%?18%?10%?29%61?62?2020?5?369?2019?98%?990?63?2020?6?3%?695?473?69%64?2020?2019?2020?8?

25、6?237?2019?258?65?25?Moodys Investor Service?Baa2?S&P Global Ratings Services?BBB?Fitch Ratings?BBB?2020?6?23?10?61?10?5?30?7.5?66?5?10?30?5?2019?67?2020?2020?5?32%?5%?40%?12%?11%?10?31%?5%?34%?18%?12%?30?10%?5%?44%?8%?33%?68?70?SBSN?SBSN Indonesia III Issuing Company?69?1000?70?62?1800?2021?12?5?20

26、21?10?360?20172022?“?”?2025?25?50?16.7%?2030?“?”?Asahan 3?PLTA 63 Poso?Kalla Group?Poso?Poso?71?2015?438?690?2030?4800?16.2?2022?2019?AIF?10?AIF?7500?3?3.4?1.5?1.5?72?2021?11?20202024?1?64 2?3?4?5?65?1983?10?2021?9?7?2021?10%?11.2%?32%?27%?73?5.1.1?5.1.1?2021?2021?29?24?5.1.2?66?5.1.2?2007?20?70?200

27、0?2000?2007?54%?46%?94.9%?5.1%?2002?“?”?700?2004?8?1?2005?8?100?2007?1?4?/?2005?2?28?67?2006?1?1?2007?8?2010?300?2020?1800?20082012?2008?2009?2009?7?2?3?100?500?50%?70%?300?1?20?1?30%?68?“?”?2011?2011?“?”?2012?2011?8?2011?7?1?2011?12?31?1.15?2011?7?1?1.15?1?2011?11?2012?7?“?”?20132017?2013?5?“?”?201

28、3?7?“2013?2015?10?2015?35?”?69?100?1000?20?“?”?2013?8?26?“?”?“?”?2015?12?22?2016?1?1?I?0.8?/?II?0.88?/?III?0.98?/?2016?2016?6?30?2016?“630”?2016?7.14?2015?22.5?6?11.3?2015?“?”?“?”?2016?“?”?5.5?0.45?/?2016?“?”?2020?70?10?2020?60?100?80%?50%?2017?24.4?17.29?16%?7.11?2.9?2017?2017?53.06?33.62?11%?19.44

29、?3.7?2018?1?2018?5?31?2018?2018?1000?2019?I?III?0.40?0.45?0.55?20%?25%?21.47%?2021?2021?2021?“?”?2?2019?71?“?”?2021?15?5.1.3?5.1.3?2010?2010?300?2020?1800?2015?2020?15%?2030?30%?2020?1?2014?2805?“?”?2020?1.05?72?2020?2.544?(?2005?“?”?“?”?100?120?2001?700?3000?10?2015?73?“?”?2020?22?320?113.4?“?”?280

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