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1、The key to the future energy architectureFusion EnergyStrategy&Source:Strategy&analysisFusion Energy2Strategy&16.August 2023Key takeawaysGlobal problem and radical solutionThe current rate of global renewable energies development makes emission-free energy supply by 2050 unlikely.Without radical new
2、 approaches,the Paris climate targets will be missed.Fusion energy may be the missing key to achieving a sustainable energy architecture in time.The combination of rapid commercialization of fusion energy and the fastest possible renewables build-out might make the Paris goal of Net Zero by 2050 fin
3、ally achievableStrategyCountries are now positioning themselves for the race to the first commercial use of fusion.In Germany,the Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)published a strategy paper on fusion energy in June 2023.Germanys position in this regard is(time-)critical right now.In a
4、cademic research,the country holds a leading position-but in entrepreneurial terms,it is about to be left behind.Therefore,bold action is needed now.A national fusion energy strategy can turn this position into an agenda for success and could develop fusion into an engine for the German economyWhy o
5、nly nowNew breakthroughs in materials,computing and laser research are making the remaining challenges increasingly manageable and bringing the Holy Grail of energy generation within reach.Progress is reflected in rapidly increasing private investment in commercial fusion startups.With modern approa
6、ches and faster innovation and decision cycles,they are aiming for a much earlier breakthrough than government research:Their ambition is to realize fusion energy in the 2030sDecisive advantageAs the first climate-neutral energy source,fusion is also base-load capable and readily scalable.The raw ma
7、terials required for operation are available worldwide and are sufficient for secure and affordable electricity oversupply.In the long term,the energy costs from fusion are expected to be below those of todays renewablesStrategy&Forecasts show:The global expansion in renewable energy is not sufficie
8、nt for emission-free power generation by 2050Source:1)IEA World Energy Outlook 2022:GEC Global Energy and Climate Model;2)IEA GEC Global Renewables development over the period from 2010 to 2020;Strategy&analysisThe renewables expansion only covers additional demand society remains dependent on fossi
9、l power sources3Fusion EnergySTEPS:Stated Policies Scenario1Conservative scenario(Realistic path)of the International Energy AgencyAPS:Announced Pledges Scenario1Moderate scenario(Statement of intent)of the International Energy AgencyNZE:Net Zero Emissions by 20501Ambitious scenario(Desired target)o
10、f the International Energy AgencyGlobal demand for electric energy in PWh and the expected coverage by source:2050:Electricity demand increase by+85%over todayRenewables expansion of+300%requiredFossil power sources remain at current levels 2050:Electricity demand increase by+130%over todayRenewable
11、s expansion of+550%required Fossil power sources at 50%of todays levels2050:Electricity demand increase by+190%over todayRenewables expansion of+750%required Almost no more fossil fuel power sources020406080420302420403220502127354350Electricity from renewablesFrom hydrogen etc.From nucle
12、ar energyFrom fossil fuels0204060804203034204049205020406080420305020406520502127385873NOWNOWNOWTodays global renewable energy expansion rate of 3.3 PWh of energy per decade2makes a net-zero-emission energy supply by 2050(net zero scenario)unlikelyWithout radically n
13、ew approaches to the transformation of the global energy architecture,the Paris climate targets will be missed by a significant marginAn inconvenient truth:Strategy&Fusion energy may be the missing key to a sustainable,sufficient and affordable energy supplySource:1)IEA World Energy Outlook 2022:GEC
14、 Global Energy&Climate Model;Strategy&analysis4Fusion EnergySTEPS:Stated Policies Scenario1Conservative scenario(Realistic path)of the International Energy AgencyGlobal demand for electric energy in PWh and the expected coverage by source:Conservative STEPS scenario:realistic renewables expansion ra
15、te and therefore high dependency on electricity from fossil sources.Ramp-up of fusion at equivalent rate as nuclear energy in the 20th century,from commissioning of first power plant in 2030s020406080420302420403220502127354350Electricity from renewablesFrom hydrogen etc.From nuclear ener
16、gyFrom fossil fuels119Electricity from fusion energy132050:Fusion energy can end residual depen-dence on 13 PWh of electricity from fossil sources by 2050.NOWFusion energy may be the missing key to timely realization of a sustainable energy architectureThe combination of rapid commercialization of f
17、usion energy and the fastest possible expansion in renewables makes the Net Zero by 2050 goal of the Paris Climate Agreement finally achievablePotential solution:Strategy&Fusion energy:What is that?The principle,simply explainedSource:Strategy&analysisThe“fusion”of the raw materials lithium and wate
18、r produces a lot of green electricity and helium5Fusion EnergyFusionLithiumRecycled lithium from old batteries can be used as a raw material in fusion energy.WaterThe second raw material required comes from conventional seawater,an omnipresent component.Green powerFusion energy generates a lot of he
19、at,which is converted via steam into large amounts of electricity to power numerous homes.HeliumHelium is the direct product of the fusion reaction.This would make fusion the first sustainable way to produce helium without the use of fossil fuels.The reaction is inherently safe any disruptions in th
20、e process simply lead to the fusion stopping.Strategy&Why only now:New technologies might bring the“Holy Grail”within reachSource:1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,National Ignition Facility,United States 2009;2)Extreme Light Infrastructure-Nuclear Physics(ELI-NP),Romania,2019;Strategy&analys
21、isBreakthroughs in materials,computing,and laser research6Fusion EnergyIn R&D,AI significantly accelerates innovation cycles for designing new materials and processesIn operation,for the first time AI enables complex optimization and control of parameters in real timeSignificant increase in laser pe
22、ak power(by a factor of 20 in a decade1,2)in a more compact package enables new designs for inertial fusionSimultaneously,laser power costs have reduced rapidly(by a factor of 200 per PW power in a decade1,2)High-power lasersArtificial intelligenceNew generation of high-performance magnets:Most impo
23、rtant mechanical reactor componentSuperconducting at much higher temperatures and thus for the first time both significantly more powerful and more efficient in operationToo-complex-to-handle control of fusion reactors has been a deal-breaker so farComputing power increasingly reaches required level
24、sQuantum computers can enable unprecedented parallelization of control tasksHigh-temperature superconducting magnetsHigh-performance and quantum computersTechnological and social megatrends drive progress:Scientific know-how meets societys need for a non-restrictive supply of sustainable and afforda
25、ble energy.6Strategy&Thus,countries are increasingly positioning themselves for the race to the first commercial use of fusion energySource:1)Towards fusion energy:the UK governments fusion strategy;2)White House Summit on Developing a Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy;3)Japanese Fusi
26、on Energy Innovation Strategy;4)BMBF position paper on fusion research;Strategy&analysisUK,USA,Japan,and most recently Germany too,have published initial strategy papers on fusion energyStrategy on building domestic fusion industry,commercial demonstration,creation of a legal framework,and promotion
27、 of public-private partnerships.Commercialization through strategic and financial promotion of domestic high-tech industries,creation of a legal framework,and promotion of public-private partnerships.Accelerated commercial implementation,collaboration of government and private innovation,coordinatio
28、n by US Dept.of Energy,increased financial subsidies.Building a“fusion ecosystem”and“technology hubs”,creation of a legal framework,and promotion of public-private partnerships.7Fusion EnergyUnited Kingdom1 October,20211Japan14 April,20233United States19 April,20222Germany23 June,20234Strategy&No gr
29、eenhouse gas emissionsOnly base-load capable renewables technologyAvailability independent of weather and time of dayFusion fuel can be obtained domesticallyCoalNatural gasWindSolarFusionHydroEnvironmental impactResource requirements(construction)Resource requirements(operation)Dependency (on outsid
30、e EU)ScalabilityBase-load capabilityThe decisive advantage over existing renewables:Fusion energy is simultaneously base-load capable and easily scalableSource:Strategy&analysisToday,only fossil energy is base-load capable,only renewables are emission-free.Fusion is the first to manage the balancing
31、 actMedium8Fusion EnergyLowHighStrategy&The amount of energy from raw materials for fusion available worldwide is sufficient for secure and cheap energy oversupplySource:Strategy&analysisThe smallest quantities are sufficient to cover our entire electricity demand:Resource requirements for a“typical
32、”1,000 MW power plantCoal3.2 million tonsannuallyNatural gas1.3 million tonsannuallyWind250 turbines (4MW onshore class)Solar34 million m of photovoltaicsFusion250 kg fuel annually.or a freight train as long as Hamburg to Nantes.or a freight train as long as Hamburg to Istanbul.or as much as Germany
33、 currently builds in four months.or the total surface area from Berlins Mitte district.or a single transport load to the power plant=1,900 km length 1,100 km length 9Fusion Energy=Strategy&CoalHydroOn-shoreOff-shoreRoof PVRoof PVand BatteryArea PVArea PV and BatteryFusionEconomies of scale can make
34、it possible:Prices for electricity from fusion at the level of renewable energies or even lowerSource:1)Fraunhofer ISE;2)Thomas Griffiths et al.2022 Prog.Energy 4 042008;3)An Energy Technology Distillate from the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University;4)Lazards level
35、ized cost of energy analysis Version 15.0;5)German Bundestag;Strategy&analysisDevelopment and construction comprise over 70%of fusions lifetime costs3 with expansion,these will decrease significantly051015202530Current studies2expect fusion energy to achieve electricity prices comparable to those of
36、 todays renewables.Levelized cost of electricity1-5 in cents/kWh(lifetime costs of electricity in generation)Natural gas10Fusion EnergySmall commercial fusion designs and thus lower initial investment volumes may even enable electricity prices below todays renewables.As technology matures,fusion(lik
37、e all other sources of energy technology with low operating costs)will decrease in cost after the initial investment.For comparison,costs for electric energy from wind have fallen by 70%and from PV by 90%in recent years4.WindSolarStrategy&EngineeringEconomyPoliticsSocietyThe remaining challenges unt
38、il fusions commercial maturity are expected to be manageable with technology available todaySource:Strategy&analysisIncreasing energy efficiency of designsControl systems capabilitiesHeat and radiation-resistant materialsDesign of special machine componentsOptimized reaction heat transfer into elect
39、ric energyCompact and scalable power plant designFusion fuel processingIncreasing efficiency in operationSecuring the supply of critical raw materialsIntegration of fusion energy into the national energy mixLong-term investmentsStakeholder market positioningKnow-how cooperation and IP managementDeve
40、lopment of a national strategy for fusion energyDevelopment of regulatory frameworksPromotion of investments and subsidy financingPromotion of international cooperationPublic law discussions with state bodiesManaging high initial investment levelsCreating awareness and understanding of fusion energy
41、Development of know-how and training of specialistsChallenges in initialimplementationChallenges infurther commercial establishmentFor interested readers,all the details at a glanceThe fusion energy skills tree:skills on the path to carbon-neutral,secure&affordable energy for everybodyThere are stil
42、l a number of challenges to be solved before the first high-performance fusion power plant can be built these mostly include engineering tasks.The current focus is on building a reactor that generates more electricity output than it consumes in continuous operation(“demonstration reactor”).As with p
43、revious major technology breakthroughs mankinds first flight,first nuclear power the demonstration can radically accelerate further developments like a spark.11Fusion Energyavailable on requestStrategy&Progress towards commercialization is reflected in the recent significant increase in the number o
44、f private fusion startupsSource:1)Wikipedia;2)Fusion Industry Association;Strategy&analysisThe international race to commercial fusion energy has begun:Start date of various fusion projects12Fusion Energy2015CTFusion Inc.2017HB11 EnergyHyperJet Fusion CorporationZap EnergyCompact Fusion Systems,Inc.
45、2018Avalanche EnergyCommonwealth Fusion SystemsHelicitySpace Corporation2019Crossfield Fusion LtdMarvel FusionN.T.TaoType One Energy Group0200520991ASDEX UpgradeAlcator C-Mod1992ISTTOK TCV 1993HBT-EP1996Pegasus Toroidal Experiment1999National Spherical Torus ExperimentGlobe M E
46、lectric TokamakTCAB2000CDX-UMAST Heliotron JCNT2002HL-2A 2005SST-1 2006EAST2007J-TEXT2008KSTARLTX QUEST 2010KTM2014HIDRAUST_22015ST25-HTSWEST ST40Wendelstein 7-X2020MAST-UHL-2M2021JT-60SA T-15MD2025ITER1992Princeton Fusion Systems 1998TAE Technologies(USA)2002General Fusion2003LPPFusion,Inc.2006ENN2
47、008Horne TechnologiesNK Labs,LLC2009 Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technology Inc.(MIFTI)Tokamak Energy2011First Light Fusion2013Helion Energy2020Electric Fusion Systems,Inc.Renaissance Fusion2021EX-FusionFocused EnergyHelical FusionNearStar Fusion Inc.2022DeutelioPrinceton Stellarators Inc.Realta FusionX
48、cimer Energy Inc.2023Proxima FusionGauss FusionNational projects1(selection)Massive increase in private fusion research in the last 10 yearsNOWCommercial projects2(selection)Strategy&Private companies aim for a much earlier breakthrough than their government research counterparts:Realization in 2030
49、sSource:1)Wikipedia;2)Fusion Industry Association;Strategy&analysisAcceleration through more modern,scalable approaches and faster innovation and decision cycles13Fusion Energy202520302035204020452050NOWConstruction test reactor completedStart of deuterium-tritium fusion testsStart of ITER testsITER
50、Pilot power plant ready for operationDemoChina Fusion EngineeringSTEP feeds electricity into the national gridSTEPPower plant ready for commercializationPilot power plant ready for operationFirst net positive energyPower plants ready for commercializationDemonstration plant ready for operationHelion
51、 Polaris produces first electricityProof-of-concept demonstration facility constructedNational projects prioritize research:They have long-running schedules that are noticeably limited in budget and slowed down by elaborate consultation and administration procedures.Private companies prioritize fast
52、 and commercially viable innovation:They actively seek and use risk capital,react to changes rapidly,and invest quickly in the latest technologies.National projects1(selection)Commercial projects2(selection)Helion EnergyGeneral FusionTAE TechnologiesCommonwealthFusion SystemsTokamak EnergyMarvel Fus
53、ionStrategy&In this race to first commercial fusion energy,Germanys position is(time-)critical right nowSource:1)IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Fusion Energy Conference 2020;2)Financial Times;3)Pitchbook;4)Bundestag;5)FIA Fusion Industry Association;6)Corporate self-disclosures for selected
54、 start ups;Strategy&analysisGermany is a leader in academic research but about to be left behind in entrepreneurial efforts14Fusion Energy 1.83 billion 1.16 billion 641 million 529 million 366 million 358million 229 million 210 million 191 million 250 million 3.7 m.per 1 million citizens 225 million
55、 2.7 m.per 1 million citizens 1.27 billion 3.8 m.per 1 million citizens42MPP Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics42Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory37Institute for Plasma Research35Southwestern Institute of Physics31National Institute for Fusion Science30CEA Commissariat lnergie atomique et aux
56、 nergies alternatives25National Institute of Quantum&Radiological Science and Technology23UK Atomic Energy Authority21Korea Institute of Fusion EnergyHelionEnergySHINETechnologiesTAETechnologiesCommonwealthFusion SystemsGeneralFusionENNTokamakEnergyMarvelFusionZapEnergyTop 9 academic institutions by
57、 recent publications1:Germany is in top positionTop 9 fusion energy start ups by capitalization2,3,5,6:Germany is barely representedAnnual national fusion energy research budgets4,5:Compared internationally,Germany is underfundedStrategy&GovernmentEconomyWhat needs to be done now?A National Fusion E
58、nergy Strategy can turn Germanys current position into an agenda for successThis strategy is the backbone of the required close coordination between government and economyNational priorities for a carbon-neutral,secure and affordable energy supply.Guidelines for development and deployment of fusion
59、energy,enablement through regulation and reduction of bureaucratic hurdles in licensing procedures and financing processes.Coordination and promotion of collaboration between government agencies and industry partners.Government subsidies and financing programs at national and European level.Governme
60、ntal reinsurance for private venture capital as a breeding-ground for startups and private-sector innovation.Formation of a decision-making role at the federal level for coordination of national energy topics in order to make strategic future technologies ready for the market more quickly US Departm
61、ent of Energy as potential blueprint.Strategic supply chain enablement and protection for critical raw materials,technologies,components and talents.Clarification of market role in an economy with fusion energy.Asset management in preparation for the integration of fusion power plants into existing
62、infrastructure.Development of transparent financing strategies including requirements for investors,scenario investment for risk minimization of“stranded assets”.Organizational structuring on the growth path from startup to operator of critical asset infrastructure.Strategic partnering and M&A for c
63、ross-sector technology utilization and non-natural business growth.Talent management in order to acquire and develop the best talents worldwide.Innovation strategy and IP management for optimized balancing of knowledge exchange,result-oriented use of funds and safeguarding critical know-how.Marketin
64、g and communication strategy to political decision-makers and the general public(public relations).Source:Strategy&analysis15Fusion EnergyStrategy&If Germany acts in time,fusion energy has the potential to become a new engine for the German national economySource:Strategy&analysisStrategy:Implementa
65、tion of the fusion energy roadmap with success-based incentivization to implement the first power plants as quickly as possibleCoordination:Establishment of a national decision-making role for energy topics at the federal level,for effective coordination of R&D and fundingSimplified funding:Establis
66、hment of effective and non-bureaucratic funding and support mechanisms for private-sector innovationEconomic development:Implementation of an enabling legal framework for development of a strong fusion industry in the Germany economyTraining:Development of required know-how in Germany through incent
67、ives,broad public relations,and targeted talent acquisitionCalls for action:our recommendations16Fusion EnergyStrategy&Strategy&Fusion Energy:Your link to Strategy&Fusion Energy17Christian von TschirschkyPartnerArtur KorinskiManagerEnergy,Utilities and Resources+49 175 Energy,Utilities and Resources
68、+49 1515 Thank youFusion E 2023 PwC.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms,each of which is a separate legal entity.Please see for further details.Disclaimer:This content is general information purposes only,and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.