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1、CLIENT NAME|CUSHMAN&WAKEFIELD32 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICECONTENTSA S I A PAC I F I C O F F I C E O U T LO O K 2 0 24A U S T R A L I ABrisbaneMelbourneSydneyG R E A T E R C H I N ABeijingHong KongShenzhenShanghaiGuangzhouI N D I APuneDelhi NCRMumbaiKolkataHyderabadChennaiBengaluruAhmedabadI N D O N E S
2、 I AJakartaJ A P A NTokyoP H I L I P P I N E SManilaM A L A Y S I AKuala LumpurS I N G A P O R ESingaporeS O U T HK O R E ASeoulT H A I L A N DBangkokV I E T N A MHanoiHo Chi Minh CityAU S T R A L I A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEBRISBANEK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe redevelopment
3、of the Eagle Street area,together with the ongoing flight to quality,will reinforce the“Golden Triangle”as the destination precinct within Brisbanes CBD,bringing together high quality office buildings with amenity and transport infrastructure.No new supply is forecast to enter the Brisbane CBD marke
4、t in 2024.This marks the second consecutive year of flat supply,after just 45,000 sqm finished in 2022.After 2024,only one project is expected to complete in 2025(45,000 sqm,85%pre-committed)and one in 2026(45,000 sqm,65%pre-committed).Further afield,the potential for projects to go ahead as schedul
5、ed remains uncertain.The Brisbane CBD experienced three years of negative prime net absorption from 2019 through 2021,before rebounding to 63,000 sqm in 2022.The strength spilled over into 2023 with net absorption of 14,000 sqm,and is expected to average 50,000 sqm in 2024 and 2025.Robust demand and
6、 limited supply will continue to push vacancy lower to settle at 10%in 2027.Prime gross effective rents increased more than 10%over 2023,driven primarily by a rapid increase in face rents.Rental growth is expected to slow to 4%in 2024 as the lack of new supply will limit the quality uplift of face r
7、ents.However,the underlying fundamentals of the Brisbane office market remains robust,and gross effective rent growth is expected to average above 5%between 2025 and 2027.N E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldBRISBANENEW SUPPLYThe only major project to recently complete was in 2022(Heritag
8、e Lanes at 80 Ann Street)providing 60,000 sqm of premium grade space.The 45,000 sqm development at 205 North Quay has been fully pre-committed and is currently under construction with delivery expected towards the end of 2024.45,000 sqm at 360 Queen Street is now expected to be delivered in Q2 2025.
9、Construction has begun on Dexuss Waterfront Brisbane,with completion expected 2028.010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldBRISBANEDEMAND&VACANCY0.0%2.0%4.0%6
10、.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTFollowing three consecutive years of contracting office demand,net absorption spiked to 63,000 sqm in 2022.Demand remained positive in 2023,wit
11、h net absorption expected to reach 14,000 sqm.Robust interstate migration has led to an upward revision in short-term employment forecasts for the Brisbane CBD.As a result,net absorption is expected to reach 42,000 sqm in 2024 and 55,000 sqm in 2025.R E N T (AU D/S Q M/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H
12、(%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldBRISBANERENT GROWTH-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%00500600700202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FAUD/SQM/YRRent growth(%)FORECASTGrowth in prime gross effective rents rose 11%in 2023,supported by limited new supply,a robust labour
13、market,and inflationary pressures pushing up face rents.With no new supply entering the market and declining vacancy,momentum should continue into 2024 with prime gross effective rents forecast to increase by 4%to reach AUD 540 sqm/yr.With little new supply forecast to hit the market and a persisten
14、tly strong labour market,prime gross effective rental growth is expected to average in excess of 5%between 2025 to 2027.MELBOURNEK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe post-pandemic recovery has supported a cyclical upswing in tenant demand for Melbournes CBD office market.Growth is ex
15、pected to continue,and more limited supply in the near-term should support ongoing rental growth.After nearly 100,000 sqm of prime office stock hit the market in 2022,new supply in 2023 fell to 80,000 sqm.Supply is expected to continue to be comparatively subdued over the next two years,with only 50
16、,000 sqm of stock scheduled to complete in 2024 and 80,000 sqm in 2025.The pipeline of new projects is busier after 2025,with 125,000 sqm expected to complete in 2026 and 140,000 sqm in 2027.Although net absorption slowed from 2022,it ended 2023 in positive territory.A resilient labour market has se
17、en employment growth forecasts revised higher in recent quarters.This is expected to support demand in the short term,as prime net absorption is expected to rebound back above 100,000 sqm by 2025.Against this backdrop,vacancy is expected to continue to trend lower,stabilising around 11%by 2026.Prime
18、 Melbourne CBD office rents maintained a healthy rate of growth in 2023 as vacancy stabilised and inflation put upwards pressure on face rents.Supported by a strong labour market,incentives are forecast to trend lower over the next several years.This will support near-term rental growth;net effectiv
19、e rents are expected to increase over 6%annually between 2024 to 2027.N E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldMELBOURNENEW SUPPLY020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTAfter a surge in prime office supply(310,000 sqm in 2020 and 125,000
20、sqm in 2021),2022 and 2023 were comparatively quiet years,with only 98,000 sqm and 81,000 sqm of new stock hitting the market,respectively.As some projects have been delayed to allow the market to digest existing stock,2024 and 2025 are expected to be relatively limited in terms of new supply,with o
21、nly 130,000 sqm scheduled to complete over two years.Thereafter completions are expected to pick up,as prime office completions are planned to average over 130,000 sqm in each of 2026 and 2027.N E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldMELBOURNEDEMAND&VACAN
22、CY0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%-60,000-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTA surprisingly resilient labourmarket has seen several upward revisions to Melbourne CBD office employment forecasts
23、 since the COVID-19 pandemic.Against this backdrop,prime net absorption is expected to hit between 80,000 sqm and 100,000 sqm in each of 2024 and 2025.Although new supply scheduled to complete from 2026 will likely put a floor under vacancy,robust demand is expected to put downward pressure on vacan
24、cy rates in the near-term.R E N T (AU D/S Q M/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldMELBOURNERENT GROWTH-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%00500600202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FAUD/SQM/YRRent growth(%)FORECASTNet effective prime rents in the
25、Melbourne CBD maintained momentum in 2023,increasing 6%.Growth was largely driven by rising face rents,as prime incentives were up by circa 50 basis points as the market continued to digest the surge in supply from 2020 and 2021.A dearth in new supply should see incentives stabilise in 2024 before s
26、tarting to trend lower thereafter.Meanwhile,a robust labour market should support rental growth;net effective rent growth is expected to average 6.3%annually from 2024 to 2027.SYDNEYK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYA surprisingly resilient labour market has supported the ongoing reco
27、very in the Sydney CBD office market,and it is well-placed to absorb a surge in supply in 2024.Limited supply post-2024 should result in a gradual decline in incentives and a pick-up in effective rent growth.Following the completion of more than 140,000 sqm of new and refurbished prime office stock
28、in 2022,only 10,000 sqm supply hit the market in 2023.The lull in supply is likely to be temporary,however,as 270,000 sqm of supply is scheduled to complete in 2024.Beyond 2024,only 90,000 sqm of net supply is expected to complete between 2025 and 2027.Prime office net absorption has been resilient
29、despite the shocks of COVID-19 and subsequent rise in flexible working.Prime net absorption rose for the third consecutive year in 2023,driven primarily by demand for centrally located premium and recently-renovated A-grade property.Although a surge in supply is expected to hit the market in 2024,a
30、substantial share of this supply is pre-committed,which should limit upward pressure on vacancy.Sydney prime gross effective rent growth registered a second consecutive year of robust growth in 2023,increasing more than 7.5%.Although the market remains nuanced,quality uplift is expected to push face
31、 rents higher in 2024 while a resilient labour market is expected to keep incentives stable.Prime gross effective rental growth is expected to average around 4%annually in the 2024 to 2027 period.N E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldSYDNEYNEW SUPPLY(50,000)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,
32、000300,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTNew supply of prime office space was limited to a handful of refurbishments in 2023.This is expected to change markedly in 2024 as the stock of prime office space is forecast to increase by net 270,000 sqm.1 Elizabeth Street(NLA 72,500 sqm,100%pre-c
33、ommitted)and Parkline Place(48,000 sqm,60%pre-committed)are the two main developments scheduled to complete.Moving forward,supply is expected to be limited in 2025 and 2026 allowing the market some time to digest this new office stock.N E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Sou
34、rce:Cushman&WakefieldSYDNEYDEMAND&VACANCY0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTEmployment growth proved to be surprisingly resilient to several macroeconomic headwinds in 2023,supporting continued gro
35、wth in net absorption.Moving forward,the Sydney CBD is expected to benefit from a surge in overseas migration,thoughdemand for office space may be constrained by the rise in flexible working.High levels of supply in 2024 combined with a slightly weaker outlook for employment in the medium term shoul
36、d hold vacancy above 10%through 2025.R E N T (AU D/S Q M/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldSYDNEYRENT GROWTH-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%02004006008001,0001,2001,400202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FAUD/SQM/YRRent growth(%)FORECASTPrime rental growth i
37、n the Sydney CBD continued to gain momentum in 2023,as gross effective rents increased 7.5%over the year.The increase is driven by face rent growth and recent refurbishments,which have lifted the average prime rent.Rent incentives,after rising sharply through the pandemic,have stabilised at around 3
38、5%.Incentives are likely to begin to trend lower beyond 2024,ultimately settling around 32%by 2027.Disclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets o
39、r developments to which it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or othe
40、r forward-looking statements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result o
41、f or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion incl
42、uded in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHSean EllisonHead of Forecasting,AustraliaSLEASINGTim MolchanoffHead of Leasing,AASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONMichael KearinsHead of Tenant Repre
43、sentation,ACAPITAL MARKETSJosh CullenHead of Capital Markets,ACONTACTSG R E AT E R C H I N A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEBEIJINGK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYIn September 2022,eight major departments in Beijing jointly issued An Action Plan on the Reform and Open Development of Constr
44、uction Green Finance,which specifically highlighted the need to strengthen financial support for green buildings.With the realization of the net zero goal promoted by the government,and tenants growing awareness of green real estate,buildings with green certifications will be more favored by the mar
45、ket.From 2023 to 2026,the Beijing office market is expected to usher in about 1.37 million sqm of office space.Among this total,the future supply in the five core submarkets and suburban submarkets will account for 24.9%and 75.1%of the citys total future supply,respectively.With the relaxation of th
46、e COVID-19 control measures,projects that were originally scheduled to open in 2022 and launch in 2023 are now scheduled to launch in 2024.New supply volume will gradually decrease in 2025 and 2026.Buffeted by economic uncertainty,net absorption continued to weaken in 2023.In the first three quarter
47、s of 2023,the overall market net absorption reached 170,771 sqm.Net absorption is forecast to be less than 300,000 sqm in 2023.The market will remain tenant favorable for the next few years,and the domestic tenants will continue to lead the leasing market.In the future,high-end manufacturing,green e
48、nergy,the digital economy,and technology and finance will become the main sources for office demand in Beijing.Rents have been under pressure in 2023.By Q3 2023,the overall market rental reached RMB 308 per sqm,down 7.0%y-o-y.Many projects are expected to enter the market in 2023 and 2024.The new sp
49、ace and high vacancy will continue to exert pressure on landlords.Subsequently,market rent will still face some downward pressure.With the steady recovery of the economy and the fall in office supply in 2025 and 2026,positive rental growth may return.BEIJINGN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&Wak
50、efieldNEW SUPPLYAhead,1.4 million sqm of new supply is now expected to enter the market by the end of 2026,of which 24.9%will be in the five core submarkets.Future office market supply will be concentrated in the Tongzhou and Wangjing-Jiuxianqiao submarket,accounting for 33.7%and 32.8%of the total f
51、uture supply,respectively.0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTBEIJINGN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYWe expect that pre-leasing from new entrants and large area transactions wil
52、l boost net absorption to 250,000 sqm citywide by the end of 2023.The TMT,finance,and professional services industries will remain the top three sectors in terms of leasing demand in the future.The government work report presented at the 2023“Two Sessions”meeting highlighted that the country will vi
53、gorously develop the digital economy and support the development of the platform economy.This will promote sustainable and stable development of the high-tech industry,and in turn drive long-term office leasing demand from this sector.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%0100,000200,000300,0
54、00400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTBEIJINGR E N T (R M B/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHIn the short-term,the office leasing market will continue to be tenant-favora
55、ble,with the vacancy rate exerting pressure on landlords and the average rental level expected to further decline.Beijings economy has already demonstrated a recovery and improvement in 1H 2023.We expect that in the coming two years,the limited new supply volume,further improvement in the economy,an
56、d further leasing strategy adjustments from landlords will help stabilize the rental level.-9.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2602702802903003350202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(RMB/SQM/MO)Rent growth(%)FORECASTGUANGZHOUK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUP
57、PLYSince the beginning of 2023,the Guangzhou government has issued several policies to support the recovery and development of the real economy.The continuous improvement in future expectations will be favorable to business operations and will drive the release of demand in the office market.The Gua
58、ngzhou office market is expected to see 3.0 million sqm of new office space in the 2023 to 2027 period.The citywide stock is expected to reach 9.6 million sqm in 2027.A peak in supply is expected in 2025,with over 790,000 sqm of new office space scheduled to enter the market.After 2025,the average a
59、nnual new supply is expected to decline to less than 50,000 sqm.The continued entry of new supply into the market will influence the citys vacancy rate to remain high.The overall net absorption is expected to reach a peak in 2025 as a large amount of new supply will have a stimulating effect on dema
60、nd.The increase in the citys vacancy rate is expected to stabilize from 2024 onwards as the macroeconomic environment gradually recovers.The entry of new office buildings in emerging business districts will lead to further competition in the market.The citys average rents are expected to continue to
61、 fall.It is expected that by 2024,the citys average rents will fall to less than RMB150 per sqm per month.As the supply recedes and the office atmosphere in emerging business districts matures,landlords may readjust their rental expectations.The rate of decline in citywide average rents is expected
62、to narrow gradually.The citywide average rents are expected to stabilize in 2027.GUANGZHOUN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLY561,211 sqm of new supply is expected to enter the Guangzhou office market in 2023.The citys total new supply is expected to reach 2.4 million sqm in th
63、e next four years.The city is expected to see a new supply peak in 2025,when the annual supply is expected to reach nearly 800,000 sqm.The future office supply will mainly be concentrated in the Financial Town and Pazhou district.The continued entry of large amounts of new supply will intensify mark
64、et competition.0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTGUANGZHOUN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYVisits to Guangzhous Grade A offices have picked up since the beginning
65、 of 2023.Comparing with 2022,the citys net absorption in 2023 will improve,raising to 54,110 sqm.Going forward,leasing demand is expected to recover against the backdrop of an optimized business environment and the gradual transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.The large amount of new
66、 supply coming to the market will stimulate demand while driving the citys vacancy rate to remain high.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTGUANGZHOUR E N T (R M
67、 B/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHNew supply in emerging areas will bring competition to the market.With the increase in leasable space,the bargaining power of tenants will be enhanced.In the short term,rents will remain on a downward trend.H
68、owever,as both the economic environment and market demand stabilise,the rate of rental decline will continue to narrow.Combined with the expected end of the office supply peak,rent growth for office space in Guangzhou is forecast to return to positive in 2027.-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%
69、0.0%1.0%2.0%02040608000222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(RMB/SQM/MO)Rent growth(%)FORECASTHONG KONGK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYLooking ahead,given the uncertain global economic outlook,occupiers are expected to maintain a conservative approach towards managin
70、g their real estate costs,in turn further weighing on office rents amid high vacancy levels.We expect that mainland enterprises will continue to play a pivotal role in supporting demand in core submarkets and for quality properties in prestigious locations with good accessibility.After 1.8 msf*of ne
71、w supply in 2023,five new projects are expected to enter the market in 2024,totaling 1.2 msf.Of the new projects,two will be in Kowloon East,with on each in Greater Central,Wanchai/Causeway Bay and Kowloon West,respectively.Beyond 2024,the supply is expected to peak at 4.0 msf in 2025 and then drop
72、back to 750K msf in 2026.Hong Kongs office market continued to face headwinds,with net absorption expected to record-143K sf in 2023,but to rebound up to 600K sf in 2024 due to the pre-commitment from supply.As a result of new supply,availability is expected to increase to 19.1%by the end of 2023 an
73、d to further increase to 19.6%in 2024.The overall availability will stay in the double-digit territory in the foreseeable future,as demand will unlikely catch up with supply as the market remains affected by geopolitical and economic uncertainties.Hong Kong office space leasing recovery remained slo
74、w due to global economic uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures.Occupiers adopted a cautious approach towards decision-making.Rents are forecast to decline by 7%in 2023,and then drop slightly further by 8%in 2024,before declining at a slower pace of 4%in 2025.This movement will take ren
75、ts to HKD 48 per sf/mth at the end of 2023,and to drop further to HKD 45 per sf/mth by the end of 2024,before bottoming out in 2025 at HKD 43 per sf/mth.HONG KONGN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYFive new projects are expected to enter in 2024,totaling 1.2 msf.Of the new proj
76、ects,two will be in Kowloon East,and one each in Greater Central,Wanchai/Causeway Bay and Kowloon West,respectively.Beyond 2024,the supply is expected to peak at 4.0 msf in 2025 and then drop back in 2026 at 0.8 msf.The 5-year average supply from 2023-2027 is expected to reach 1.6 msf per annum.0.00
77、.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTHONG KONGN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYTowards 2H 2023,there were more new lettings arising from diverse sectors besides banking&finance and professional services,
78、such as the public sector and consumer products.Particularly,the Kowloon East submarket,which is popular among cost-conscious occupiers,remained attractive to non-banking finance occupiers,with several sizable deals recorded.Net absorption is forecast to stay negative at-143K sf in 2023 before recov
79、ering to 600D sf in 2024,supported by ongoing economic recovery and preleased space from new supply.However,availability is expected to edge up and stay at double-digit levels through to at least 2027 due to the elevated supply pipeline in the coming years.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.
80、20.00.20.40.60.81.0202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionAvailability Rate*FORECASTHONG KONGR E N T (H K D/S F/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHThe full-year rental change is expected to record a drop of 7%in 2023,followed by a yearly decli
81、ne of 8%in 2024.Rental recovery is to remain slow,due to the moderate new demand anticipated as a result of a cautious business outlook,persistent high interest rates,and geopolitical uncertainties.On a brighter note,the flight to quality will continue to drive market activities,while leasing demand
82、 from mainland occupiers will likely expand further.Office rents are forecast to bottom out in 2025;rental recovery to take place from 2026 onwards.-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(HKD/SQFT/MO)Rent growth(%)FORECASTSHANGHAIK E Y M
83、 E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYOver 60%of new supply will be located in suburban areas in the future,which will drive growth in these non-core areas and attract more quality tenants and corporates to gather.The rental gap between suburban and core areas is narrowing,and this trend is expe
84、cted to continue in the future.From 2024 to 2027,more new supply is expected to enter Shanghais Grade A office market.During this period,over 3.8 million sqm of office space will be added to the market.2024 will be another peak supply year as a result of projects delayed in the past.Of those project
85、s to complete in 2024,approximately twice as many projects will be completed in the citys suburban areas as in the core areas.Considering the slow economic recovery and ongoing uncertainty internationally,the office leasing market will remain sluggish.As a result,net absorption is expected to be aro
86、und 550,000 sqm in 2024.Due to the high volume of new supply to be added in the future,a vacancy rate peak of around 22.7%is expected in 2024.The market will remain tenant favorable and there will be more choices for tenants.In 2023,rents have been under pressure and have declined by about 1.5%.The
87、annual rental growth is likely to register-1%during the next two years,weighed by a higher-than-average vacancy rate.The monthly rental for Shanghais Grade A office will drop to around RMB240 per sqm.SHANGHAIN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYFrom 2024 to 2027,more new supply
88、is expected to enter Shanghais Grade A office market,adding over 3.8 million sqm of office space.2024 will be another peak supply year as a result of projects delayed in the past.More quality projects will complete in the next 3 to 4 years,and this will bring new vitality and opportunities to the Sh
89、anghai Grade A office market in both suburban and core areas.0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTSHANGHAIN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYConsidering the
90、slow economic recovery and ongoing uncertainty internationally,the office leasing market will remain sluggish.As a result,net absorption is expected to be around 550,000 sqm in 2024.Due to the high volume of new supply to be added in the future,a vacancy rate peak of around 22.7%is expected in 2024.
91、The net absorption is expected to stabilize when the economy stabilizes in the mid-to longer term.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTSHANGHAIR E N T (R M B/S Q M/M O)A N D R
92、E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHIn 2023,rents have been under pressure and have declined by about 1.5%.The annual rental growth is likely to register-1%over the next two years,weighed by a higher-than-average vacancy rate.The monthly rental for Shanghais Grade
93、A office will drop to around RMB240 per sqm.With the existing and future high supply volume and absorption challenges,rental growth will likely see a steady slowdown in both suburban and core markets.-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%234236238240242244246248250202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent
94、(RMB/SQM/MO)Rent growth(%)FORECASTSHENZHENK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe international and domestic environments remain uncertain,causing the office demand side to remain generally cautious.The oversupply of Grade A office space in Shenzhen is expected to continue in the next f
95、ew years.The reinvigoration of leasing demand largely depends on improvements in the economic outlook.Approximately 1.09 million sqm of new office supply is slated to enter Shenzhens Grade A office market in 2023.The market will see peaks with around 1.3 million sqm of new supply completing in both
96、2025 and 2026.The supply influx is set to maintain market pressure.Some landlords are believed to have adjusted their leasing strategies and postponedproject launch timelines in response to the uncertain economic environment.The pre-leasing activities of the new projects contributed largely to the n
97、et absorption of 2023,a big jump from 2022.While completions continue to enter the market,soft demand is likely to remain in 2024.The vacancy rate will continue to trend upward and the tenant-favorable market pattern will persist.The completion of headquarter buildings will contribute to net absorpt
98、ion supported by owner-occupation.The demand is anticipated to gradually recover in 2025 as economic conditions recover.Amid sluggish demand and high supply pressure,landlords generally trimmed rents further in 2023,resulting in a deep fall in citywide average rents.The downward trend in rents is ex
99、pected to continue but with a softer decline starting from 2024.As Grade A office rental costs continue to slide,it is expected that the flight to quality by tenants will become more common.SHENZHENN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYApproximately 1.09 million sqm of new Grade
100、A office supply is slated to launch in 2023.Of this supply,Qianhai,Futian and Nanshan will take nearly 30%,respectively.The remaining 13.8%belongs to Baoansubmarket.The market will then see a slight relief in supply with 780,000 sqm completing in 2024,followed by supply completion peaks of around 1.
101、3 million sqm in both 2025 and 2026.The supply influx is set to maintain market pressure.Amid intensifying market competition,some landlords are believed to have adjusted leasing strategies and postponed project launch times in response to the uncertain economic environment.0200,000400,000600,000800
102、,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTSHENZHENN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYThe supply influx is forecast to buoy cumulative net absorption to surpass the 400,000 sqm mark in 2023,a big j
103、ump from 2022,largely supported by the pre-leasing activities of new projects.However,the new supply impact will push the estimated year-end citywide vacancy rate to about 27.3%,up 4.5 percentage points y-o-y.Soft demand is likely to remain in 2024.While completions will continue to enter the market
104、,the vacancy rate for the overall market will face an upward trend.Therefore a tenant-favorablemarket pattern will persist.The market is expected to gradually recover in 2025 and 2026,helped in part by the owner-occupation headquarter completions which will contribute to net absorption.0.0%5.0%10.0%
105、15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTSHENZHENR E N T (R M B/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHAmid the sluggish demand influenc
106、ed by the fluctuating economic environment and high supply pressure,landlords generally trimmed rents further in 2023 to attract and retain tenants,resulting in a deep fall in citywide average rents.The downward trend in rents is expected to continue but with a softer decline starting from 2024.A re
107、turn to positive rental growth may be possible in 2027.As Grade A office rental costs continue to slide,it is expected tenants office space upgrades with lower costs will become more common.-9.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%0500202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(
108、RMB/SQM/MO)Rent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.The material uses information ob
109、tained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contained in this material may involv
110、e significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitt
111、ed by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield
112、.All rights reserved.RESEARCHShaun BrodieHead of Research Content,Greater CRosanna TangHead of Research,Hong KASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific CAPITAL MARKETSFrancis LiHead of Capital Markets,Greater CTENANT REPRESENTATIONJonathan WeiPresident,Project&Occupier
113、Services,CJohn SiuManaging Director,Hong KCONTACTSI N D I A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEAHMEDABADK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe city is currently attracting major IT-BPM occupiers supported by the state governments IT policy,SEZ benefits and talent pool availability.Submarkets such
114、 as GIFT City and SBD have been attracting the majority of occupiers.2 msf of new supply is expected to enter the Ahmedabad market in 2024 across submarkets.Further,2.07 msf is expected in 2025,followed by an average supply of 1.15 msf anticipated during 2026-2027.Net absorption in 2023 is expected
115、to reach 1.35 msf.Demand momentum is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025 with an average of 1.35 msf of net absorption each year.Vacancy is expected to stay in the range of 30-31%from 2023 through 2025.Strong supply addition in 2024 and 2025 is expected to cause a temporary increase in vacancy by
116、0.51%.Rents are forecast to grow by around 3%between 2023 and 2025,backed by rising demand for quality office space in the city.This rental movement will take rents to INR 536/sft/yr at the end of 2023 to INR 553/sft/yr by end-2025.AHMEDABADN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYT
117、he city is expected to witness a healthy supply of 2.8 msf by the end of 2023.The majority of the new supply in 2023 is concentrated in the SBD and PBD submarkets,which is backed by strong demand.New supply of 4 msf is expected to enter the market in 2024 and 2025 spread across submarkets.Beyond 202
118、5,the supply is expected to remain low compared to 2024 and 2025.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTAHMEDABADN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYOffic
119、e absorption is expected to reach 1.35 msf by the end of 2023 backed by rising demand from IT-BPM and flex space operators.This momentum is expected to continue for the next few years as flex operators are expanding and the city is attracting new occupiers.Vacancy is expected to stay in the range of
120、 3031%by the end of 2023.The vacancy is likely to stay range-bound in the coming years due to strong demand.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTAHMEDABADR E N T
121、 (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRental growth is forecast at 2.9%for 2023 and will remain around 1.52%until 2025.The rental growth is mainly driven by limited,superior-grade space availability and strong demand in select submarkets of th
122、e city.Rental growth is expected to stay low beyond 2025 after strong supply hits the market.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4704804905005550560570202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTBENGALURUK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYFor most tec
123、h firms and GCCs,Bengaluru continues to offer a good ecosystem,thereby enabling the city to capture a healthy share of demand.Growing economic activity and Indias rising contribution towards enablement of digital adoption will help the citys office market momentum in the near-to medium-term.Bengalur
124、u is likely to witness supply of around 12 msfin 2023.31 msf of total supply is expected to be completed during 20242025,with the Outer Ring Road submarket being the major(40%)contributor.Beyond 2025,average annual supply is expected at 1113 msf.2023 is likely to witness net absorption of around 7.5
125、 msf,which is lower than that in 2022.Net absorption is likely to witness strong recovery(yearly average of 12-13 msf)in 2024 and 2025 on the back of healthy deal pipeline,positive economic outlook and stronger office space uptake.City vacancy is expected to be somewhat elevated in 2024 and 2025 owi
126、ng to high volume of supply.Certain prime submarkets have recorded higher vacancy and are gradually attaining a tenant-favourable status.Rents remain largely range-bound during 2022 and 2023.Foreseeable pick-up in demand and flight-to-quality to result in marginal rise in rents from 2024 despite con
127、sistent supply coming in.Upward rental movement will take rents closer to INR 1180 sf/yr by end 2026.BENGALURUN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYNew supply for 2023 is expected to reach 12 msf,consistent with the supply seen in the previous year.Supply during 2024&2025 is like
128、ly to total 31 msf with the prime Outer Ring Road(ORR)submarket accounting for approx.40%of new supply.Average annual supply beyond 2025 is expected to range between 11-13 msf.Emerging sub-markets such as Peripheral North are gradually seeing a rise in supply,although traditionally prime markets suc
129、h as ORR and Peripheral East will continue to dominate.02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTBENGALURUN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYBengalur
130、u is expected to witness net absorption of around 7.5 msf in 2023,which is slower in comparison to 2022.Larger deals are taking more time to execute owing to current economic uncertainty.The pipeline of deals remains strong as many occupiers are expected to increase space take-up in 2024 and 2025 ow
131、ing to increased net hiring over last couple of years.Quite a few pre-committed properties are expected to enter the market in the near future thereby helping net absorption strengthen in 2024.Vacancies have risen in 2023 on the back of higher supply and slower leasing activity and are likely to rem
132、ain somewhat elevated up to 2025.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTBENGALURUR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&Wakefi
133、eldRENT GROWTHRentals remained range-bound during 2022 and 2023 on the back of strong demand and supply forces.Developers tried to prioritise supply that had higher pre-leasing commitment.Large incoming supply and a marginal rise in vacancies could gradually render prime submarkets such as ORR and P
134、eripheral East tenant-favourable.Preference for top quality assets continues to remain strong though,and there could be pockets where rental premiums are observed.As demand strengthens in coming years,rents are gradually expected to rise,particularly from 2025 onwards.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%1,0
135、601,0801,1001,1201,1401,1601,1801,2001,220202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTCHENNAIK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYSouth West,Suburban South and Peripheral South markets are likely to remain as prime office locations with enhanced connectivity t
136、o the CBD,on completion of Phase 2 of the Chennai metro project.Chennai office market is anticipated to experience robust demand,particularly from the IT-BPM,Engineering&Manufacturing,BFSI and Flexible workspace operator segments,which have shown significant growth in recent years.Chennai is expecte
137、d to witness new supply of 17.5 msf during 20232025,with the majority of this supply(51%)concentrated in the prime submarkets of South West and Suburban South.Nearly 26%of the upcoming space(1.8 msf)in 2024 is pre-committed,mainly by BFSI and IT-BPM majors.Due to healthy demand,net absorption is for
138、ecast at 2.45 msf as of end-2023.Vacancy is expected to increase to around 18.6%in 2023 due to large supply infusions anticipated for the entire year.Net absorption of 2.5 msf is projected for 2024 recording a 2%y-o-y rise in net absorption from over 2.45 msf in 2023,largely driven by demand from IT
139、-BPM occupiers.Rents are forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.7%between 20232025,from INR 876 sf/yr by end-2023 to INR 904 sf/yr by 2025.CHENNAIN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYChennai is expected to see new supply of around 11.9 msf in 20242025.Upcoming projects in 2024
140、 and 2025 are mainly located in South West,Peripheral South and Peripheral South West submarkets,accounting for 76%(9 msf)of the total supply(11.9 msf)over these two years.Approximately 1.8 msf(26%)of the upcoming space in 2024,concentrated in the South West and Suburban South submarkets,is already
141、pre-committed.Nearly 7.4 msf of new supply is expected between 2026 and 2027,with the potential for this supply volume to increase as additional projects are in the initial stages of planning.0120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTCHENNAIN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y
142、 R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYNet absorption for full-year 2023 is forecast at 2.45 msf in light of sustained demand from IT-BPM occupiers.Fresh demand for space has been on the rise as occupiers continue to expand their footprint.Net absorption is forecast to reach around 2.5 msf
143、 in 2024 with higher demand for space anticipated mainly from the IT-BPM,BFSI and Engineering&Manufacturing sector.Vacancy is expected to increase to 18.6%by the end of 2023 due to increased supply levels.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net
144、AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTCHENNAIR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRental growth of 4.9%is anticipated by the end of 2023.This is mainly due to higher rentals in good quality developments which have seen healthy demand and limit
145、ed availability in prime markets.A marginal rental growth of 12%is expected between 2024 and 2025.Rentals are anticipated to reach INR 904 sf/yr at the end of 2025,from INR 876 sf/yr during end-2023.Beyond 2025,rental growth is expected to experience a slight increase,given the decline in supply and
146、 vacancy levels compared to previous years.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%760780800820840860880900920940960202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTDELHI NCRK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe Delhi-NCR office market is likely to benefit from growth in IT
147、-BPM,GCCs and flexible space segments,all of which have demonstrated high growth in recent years and are anticipated to grow further.Annual average supply of around 5.2 msf is expected in Delhi NCR during 2023 and 2024,primarily in Golf Course Extn.,NH-8 and Noida Expressway submarkets.Over 25 msf o
148、f new supply is expected in NCR market post-2024 through 2027Owing to healthy average net absorption levels of approx.57 msf between 2022 and 2023,vacancy decreased marginally.It is likely to decrease further in 2024.Rentals are expected to witness marginal growth(0.5%)in 2024.Post 2024,rental growt
149、h is likely to remain range-bound,but at stronger levels compared to 2024.Fresh demand for space is likely to help offset new supply additions.Rents are likely to appreciate marginally from INR 950 sf/yr as of end-2022 to INR 958 sf/yr by end-2024,and subsequently to INR 976 sf/yr by 2026.DELHI NCRN
150、 E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYNCR is expected to witness new completions of around 10 msf in 2023 and 2024.Under-construction projects are located mostly across Golf Course Extension Road in Gurugram and along the Expressway in Noida.Supply pipeline remains healthy,particu
151、larly in 2025 and 2026.01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTDELHI NCRN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCY2023 net absorption remained weaker than the
152、previous year,largely owing to occupiers delaying execution of large deals on the back of global economic uncertainty and cost pressures.Demand is expected to pick-up during the coming two years(202425)once economic uncertainty subsides and large deals get executed.A turnaround in the IT-ITES outloo
153、k is also anticipated in the coming years.Despite higher supply entering the market post-2024,vacancy is expected to subside as stronger demand is likely to offset pressure emanating from higher supply.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008
154、,000,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTDELHI NCRR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHBetween 202123,rents remained range-bound.With annual average supply of around 10.4 msf expected during 2023 and
155、2024,rentals are expected to witness marginal average growth(0.4%).Beyond 2024,rent growth is expected to pick up(0.8-1%)due to rising occupier demand,although it is likely to remain range-bound at that level owing to consistent supply hitting the market.0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%92093094095096097
156、0980990202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTHYDERABADK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYDespite increasing demand for office space,particularly from the IT-BPM and flexible workspace sectors,the Hyderabad office market is expected to experience a surg
157、e in vacancy levels due to a substantial influx of supply over the next two years.New supply of 2930 msf is expected in the citys office market during 20242025,with the majority of this supply(66%)concentrated in Gachibowli submarket.Hyderabad is expected to witness 15.6 msf of new supply during 202
158、4,an historic high.Owing to robust demand primarily from the IT-BPM,BFSI,and flexible workspace operator segments,the projected net absorption for 2023 is approximately 7.5 msf.Net absorption for 2024 and 2025 is expected to fall within the range of 8.59.2 msf.Vacancy rates are anticipated to rise u
159、ntil 2025 due to the increased supply volume.Rental growth of 2.6%is anticipated by the end of 2023.During 2024 and 2025,rental growth is likely to remain within 0.70.8%,constrained by the large volume of supply.Rents are likely to rise from INR 858 sf/yr as of end-2023 to INR 871 sf/yr by end-2025.
160、HYDERABADN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYHyderabad is anticipated to witness record-high new completions of approximately 15.6 msf in 2024.The total supply is projected to reach 44.3 msf during the period 20232025,with the Gachibowli submarket contributing the majority(appr
161、oximately 58%),followed by Madhapur(40%).Post-2024,there is an anticipated annual decline in gross office supply,averaging around 12 msf.However,additional projects are currently in the initial stages of planning.0246802120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTHYDERABADN E T A B S O R P T I
162、O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYAnticipated annual net absorption of 7.5 msf in 2023 was driven by ongoing expansions in the IT-BPM,flexible workspace,and BFSI sectors.Net absorption for 2024 and 2025 is expected to range between 8.5 and 9.2 msf.Vacancy
163、is projected to increase consistently through 2025 due to the substantial supply volume.Although net absorption is forecast to slow beyond 2025,a decline in vacancy is expected as new supply decreases.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacanc
164、y RateFORECASTHYDERABADR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRental growth of 2.6%is anticipated by the end of 2023.Marginal rental growth in the range of 0.60.8%is anticipated beyond 2023.Rentals are anticipated to reach INR 871 sf/yr
165、at the end of 2025 from INR 858 sf/yr during end-2023.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%760780800820840860880900202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTKOLKATAK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYFlight to quality is a key trend witnessed in the Kolkata mark
166、et.Most of the Grade A,under-construction projects,especially in the prime office corridors Salt Lake Sector V and Rajarhat,are incorporating modern amenities,technology solutions and sustainability features,which are in demand from prominent occupiers.New supply of 1.5 msf in 2023 is expected acros
167、s the Salt Lake Sector V and CBD micro-markets.Over 2 msf of new supply is expected in 2025 including expansion of a property owned by Brookfield India REIT.Net absorption has rebounded strongly from the lows witnessed in 2021.It crossed 1 msf in 2023 and is likely to gain momentum in 2024 and 2025.
168、Vacancy is expected to decline to around 20%by 2026,thereby continuing its declining trend on the back of healthy demand from the IT-BPM and professional services occupiers.The market remains tenant-favourable in 2023 and is likely to remain so in the near term.Rents are forecast to grow by less tha
169、n 1%in 2023 before accelerating gradually in the subsequent years;however,rental growth will remain in the 12%range during 20242026 as rising tenant demand is offset by significant new supply.This movement will take rents to INR INR 570 sf/yr at the end of 2023 and subsequently over INR 600 sf/yr by
170、 2027.KOLKATAN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYAfter a period of no significant new supply,Kolkata is expected to witness new completions of around 1.5 msf in 2023.The projects are located across the Salt Lake Sector V and CBD submarkets.The key feature of 2023 is the operati
171、onalization of a large project in Salt Lake Sector V with substantial space takeup by a major IT-BPM occupier.Another project at Park Circus Connector submarket is nearing completion and is likely to enter the market in 2024.Over 2 msf of new supply is expected in 2025 including expansion of a Brook
172、field India REIT-owned property followed by smaller supply additions over 20262027.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTKOLKATAN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYOffice leasing activity g
173、ained momentum in 2023 with expansion by tenants in the IT-BPM and professional services sectors.Flexible workspace operators have also accounted for a significant proportion of lease volumes.Net absorption has crossed 1 msf in 2023 and is likely to maintain robust growth over 202425 with the IT-BPM
174、 sector expected to remain a key driver of leasing activity.Developers have been expediting projects due to rising demand for premium office space.Vacancy is expected to sustain its declining trend despite higher supply entering the market.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21
175、.41.6202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTKOLKATAR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRent growth is expected to be lower than 1%in 2023;the market remains tenant-favourable.With significant new supply of
176、 around 1.5 msf entering the market in 2023,rental growth is likely to be restricted as developers look to lease out space to prominent occupiers at competitive rates.Rent growth is expected to pick up from 2024 due to rising tenant demand,though higher new supply will limit the margin of growth.Ren
177、ts are likely to rise at a faster pace beyond 2025.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%5305405505605705805906006222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTMUMBAIK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYAs new supply is created in both prime and key suburban markets,offi
178、ce activity is likely to witness greater momentum in the near term.As demand picks up in the coming years and occupier preference for quality assets grows,the gap in premium commanded for quality assets is expected to widen further.2023 saw the slowest volume of project completions in recent times,c
179、locking merely 1.7 msf of additions.With spillover supply,the pipeline for 202426 remains high at close to 26 msf.Upcoming supply is relatively distributed across both prime and key suburban submarkets.Net absorption remains broadly consistent with close to 4.4 msf anticipated in 2023.The 202426 per
180、iod is likely to witness growth in net absorption with newly added supply in prime submarkets likely to drive growth.Overall vacancy is expected to witness a marginal uptick year-on-year over the coming years,driven by an influx of new supply.On the back of the limited supply of recent years,upward
181、pressure on rents is anticipated as demand picks up in the near-to medium-term.Prime markets are expected to record higher growth rates.MUMBAIN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYThe annual supply for 2023 dropped to around 1.7 msf,marking the lowest observed in recent years.A n
182、umber of projects that were supposed to hit the market in 2023 have been pushed to later years owing to slow construction progress.As a result,the supply pipeline is higher in coming years.A lot of the new supply anticipated is concentrated in prime markets like the BKC,suburban markets like Andheri
183、-Kurla Road,and also the Central Suburbs.0246822023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTMUMBAIN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYDriven by the BFSI and Professional Service sectors,office demand has remained strong and is expected t
184、o reach 4.4 msf by year-end.The next 3 years(2024-26)is expected to see higher demand,clocking an annual average net absorption of over 5 msf,driven by demand in newly-added supply.Despite healthy demand,considering the quantum of supply expected in 20242026,vacancy levels are expected to see a marg
185、inal uptick beyond 2025.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%00222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTMUMBAIR E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHOverall,rental values are expected to see growth in the near-term
186、 future driven by supply addition in prime sub-markets.With improvement in net absorption numbers from 2023 onwards,overall rents are expected to grow at 0.8-1.2%until 2025.Beyond 2025,the rental growth remains largely stable at 1.2%annual growth.-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1
187、,5201,5401,5601,5801,6001,6201,6401,6601,680202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTPUNEK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYGCC,IT-BPM and flexible workspace will continue to be the dominant occupiers in the leasing spaceSoon-to-be-operational metro corri
188、dors along submarkets of PBD West and SBD West are likely to boost the office space demand in these locations.The city is expected to receive new supply of 6.6 msf in 2023,the majority of which(56%)is concentrated in the SBD East submarket.The CBD is set to increase its share of new supply in 2024.N
189、et absorption has seen a rise from 2022 and is expected to reach around 4.8 msf in 2023.The momentum is set to continue in 2024 with demand expected to reach 5.3 msf.Backed by healthy demand and consistent supply additions,the vacancy rate is likely to remain stable at around 12.9%through to 2027.Re
190、nts are forecast to grow by 0.71%y-o-y in 2023 and thereafter to witness a stable 1.62.1%growth from 2024 through 2027.This gradual rental movement will take rents from INR 1,087 sf/yr by end-2023 to INR 1,110 sf/yr in 2024.Subsequently,rentals may reach INR 1,174 sf/yr by end-2027.PUNEN E W S U P P
191、 LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYThe city is expected to receive new supply of 6.6 msf in 2023,the majority of which(56%)is concentrated in the SBD East submarket.Total supply of 16.6 msf is expected to become operational during 20242026.Again,most of this supply is concentrated in SBD E
192、ast(46%).0120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTPUNEN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYNet absorption is estimated to be around 4.8 msf in 2023 which is likely to remain consistent for the upcoming years,driven by demand fro
193、m the IT-BPM and flexible workspace sectors.Vacancy will remain largely range-bound at 13%given the parity between strong supply and absorption.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%00222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTPUNER E N T (I N R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T
194、G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRentals are expected to trend upwards,driven largely by key markets like SBD East and CBD.Rent growth is expected to see an average annual rise of 1.7%in the upcoming years.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%9501,0001,0501,1001,1501,20020
195、2120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(INR/SQFT/YR)Rent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it re
196、fers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements
197、contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use o
198、f this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are sub
199、ject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHSuvishesh ValsanHead of Research,ICAPITAL MARKETSSaurabh ShatdalCo-Head Head of Capital Markets,IASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONBadal YagnikHead of Tenant Representation,IC
200、APITAL MARKETSSomy ThomasCo-Head Head of Capital Markets,ICONTACTSI N D O N E S I A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEJAKARTAK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe robust economy of Indonesia and a successful general election result in 2024,which is widely expected,will maintain office demand wi
201、thin positive territory.No new supply is expected to enter the Jakarta CBD office market in 2024.The absence of new supply in 2024 is due mostly to projects currently in advanced stages of construction which remain on hold.Net absorption is expected to slow down in 2024 as tenants adopt a“wait and s
202、ee”attitude in anticipation of the general election result,which is expected to delay major decision-making.Vacancy is expected to slightly improve with the absence of new office supply in 2024.Gross rental rates are projected to slightly increase,mostly as a result of incremental increases in the s
203、ervice charge component.Despite ongoing improvements in occupancy,landlords will remain very cautious in increasing their base rental.JAKARTAN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYNo new supply is expected to enter the Jakarta CBD Office market in 2024.The absence of new supply in
204、 2024 is due mostly to projects currently in advanced stages of construction that remain on hold,such as Gedung Indonesia Satu Tower North(62,600 sqm)and Gedung Indonesia Satu Tower South(68,600 sqm).020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,00020224F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTJAKARTA
205、N E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYDemand continued to rebound in 2023,driven by corporate consolidation and a flight to quality.Net absorption of Grade A office space is forecast to reach 180,000 sqm in 2023.Net absorption is expected
206、 to slow down in 2024 as tenants adopt a“wait and see”attitude and delay major decisions,in anticipation of the general election result.Vacancy is expected to slightly improve with the absence of new office supply in 2024.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0
207、0020224F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTJAKARTAR E N T (I D R/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHDespite ongoing positive net absorption and improvement in occupancy,landlords will still likely be very cautious in inc
208、reasing their base rental.Gross rental rates are projected to slightly increase,mostly as a result of incremental increases in the service charge component.Rental growth is expected to increase further in 2025 following the general election and period of expected political stability,against the back
209、drop of an improved economic forecast.-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,00020224F2025F2026F2027FRP/SQM/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created b
210、y Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any i
211、nformation and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and ar
212、e beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirec
213、t or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.STRATEGIC CONSULTINGArief RahardjoHead of Strategic Consulting,ILEASINGNonny SubenoHead of Office L
214、easing,IASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONFenny SukardiHead of Tenant Representation,ICAPITAL MARKETSMina OndangHead of Capital Markets,ICONTACTSJA PA N2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICETOKYOK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYWith incom
215、ing supply exceeding existing demand,we expect Tokyo C5W Grade A office vacancy to rise over the next three years throughout the market downcycle.We expect the net effective rent to decline around 4%on real terms over the next three years.This translates into near-flat rent movement with the current
216、 inflationary outlook,prompting more landlords to adopt flexible leasing strategies.In 2024,annual supply is expected to fall to 60%below the 10-year average to 74,700tsubo(247,100 sqm).However,pent-up supply is forecast to re-enter the Tokyo C5W market in the three years from 2025,totaling 375,723
217、tsubo(1.2 million sqm)or 14%of total stock at the end of 2023.With Tokyos stable office attendance rate,tenant demand for new or renovated properties has started to normalize,with notable growth in client inquiries.The overall net absorption trend remains stable through the market cycle.However,larg
218、e incoming supply is expected to lift the overall vacancy rate toward 6%over the next three years.Rents are expected to remain near flat over the next three years.Tenants retain pricing power.Most landlords prioritise minimising vacancy by offering rental discounts in response to rising vacancy conc
219、erns.TOKYON E W S U P P LY (T S U B O)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYSupply is forecast to fall to 60%below the 10-year new supply average of 115,873 tsubo in 2024,before it is scheduled to double this 10-year historical average in 2025.Key projects include Takanawa Gateway City(91,000 tsubo),Tok
220、yo Station Yaesu 1-chome East B District Redevelopment(42,400 tsubo),and Shibaura 1-chome Project Tower S(41,600 tsubo).Rising construction costs continue to add pressure to development margins.The office construction cost index has increased by 14.6%,or 4Y CAGR 3.4%,since July 2019.050,000100,00015
221、0,000200,000250,000300,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTTOKYON E T A B S O R P T I O N (T S U B O)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYTenants flight to quality continues.More tenants demand a smaller footprint in high quality space.While reducing the total o
222、ffice floor space,demand for new or renovated buildings has been on the rise.Net absorption remains positive since 2022.However,the incoming supply continues to outpace existing supply at least until 2027,leading to a higher vacancy of around 6%.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%-150,000-100,000-50,00
223、0050,000100,000150,000200,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTTOKYOR E N T (J PY/T S U B O/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHTenants maintain pricing power.Most landlords prioritiseminimising vacancy by offering rent
224、al discounts in response to rising vacancy concerns.Following tenant relocations to incoming properties,we expect delayed downward rental pressures to fill vacancies in existing buildings.However,the negative impact in relation to the Grade A office inventory of 2.8 million tsubo,is likely to be lim
225、ited.Japans transition to the first inflationary environment since 1990 would require some upward price adjustment,leading to near-flat rental movements over the next three years.-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%28,00029,00030,00031,00032,00033,00034,00035,00036,00037,000202120222023F2024F2025
226、F2026F2027FJPY/TSUBO/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.The material uses in
227、formation obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contained in this materia
228、l may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this material.To the ex
229、tent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushm
230、an&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHMari KumagiHead of Research,JLEASINGKeiji KatoHead of Leasing Advisory Group,JASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONManami ChisakiHead of Tenant Advisory Group,JCAPITAL MARKETSNobuhiro MaruyamaHead of Inv
231、estment Sales,JCONTACTSM A L AY S I A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEKUALA LUMPURK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYAs demand recovers,we continue to observe flight-to-quality,decentralization and ESG requirement trends.There is a robust take-up of office space,especially for office buildings
232、 with good transport connections and a variety of amenities,that offer tempting leasing bargains within the KL Fringe and Decentralised areas.There is approximately 3.3 million sf of new supply across five projects expected to complete in 2024.In total they are 30%pre-committed.After 2024,new supply
233、 is forecast to decline to an average of a little under 500,000 sf per year.While the economic uncertainties remain,flight-to-quality relocations are still ongoing,as are right-sizing exercises by MNCs looking to refresh their traditional office set ups.Net absorption is expected to reach 5.2 msf in
234、 2024 and almost 2.5 msf in 2025.As a result of good demand being offset by large amounts of new supply,vacancy is expected to remain stable at 26%by the end of 2024 and then largely track sideways.Rents are forecast to slightly decrease by 0.02%in 2024 and then a further 0.001%in 2025 before return
235、ing to positive territory in 2026 at 0.003%.This movement will take rents to MYR 80.40 sf at the end of 2024.KUALA LUMPURN E W S U P P LY (M S F)NEW SUPPLYDue to inflation and economic uncertainties,a large amount of new supply is being postponed to 2024,though approximately 3.3 msf is targeted to e
236、nter the Greater KL market by end-2023.5 projects:MET Corporate Tower(636,174 sf),Pavilion Damansara Corporate Tower 1(227,000 sf),Menara Sentral RAC(162,094 sf),Merdeka 118(1.7 msf),and South Quay Corporate Tower 2(553,629 sf)are currently under construction and expected to complete by 2024.They ha
237、ve a combined pre-commitment level of 30%.Beyond 2024,supply is more uncertain with several shovel-ready projects yet to begin construction.-1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTSource:Cushman&WakefieldKUALA LUMPURN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)S
238、OURCE:CUSHMAN&WAKEFIELDDEMAND&VACANCYTenant demand is recovering where the trends of flight-to-quality,decentralization and ESG requirements remain open-ended.Net absorption is forecast to reach 5 msf in 2024,with green-certified buildings with good transport connections likely to receive preference
239、.Vacancy is expected remain stable at 26%as result of continuous demand.24.5%25.0%25.5%26.0%26.5%27.0%27.5%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.5%-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTKUALA LUMPURR E N T (M Y R/S F/Y R)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)R
240、ENT GROWTHAs supply is expected to be balanced by demand in 2024,rentals are forecast to remain stable at around 0.02%between 2023 and 2024.Rent growth is expected to return to positive territory in 2026 at 0.3%.-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%6.506.556.606.656.706.756.806.856.90202120222023F2024F202
241、5F2026F2027FMYR/SQFT/MORent growth(%)FORECASTSource:Cushman&WakefieldDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it ref
242、ers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements c
243、ontained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of
244、 this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subj
245、ect to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.OCCUPIER SERVICESTiffany GohHead of Occupier Services-Transaction Management&AASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific CONTACTSP H I L I P P I N E S2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEMANILAK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKR
246、ENTSDEMANDSUPPLYNew entrants and expansion of real estate requirements from the IT-BPM sector are expected to be reactivated in 2024.Despite the higher return-to-office rate in the local market,high vacancy rates are expected to persist as global corporate occupiers sustain hybrid work arrangements.
247、The pending legislation that will allow local IT-BPM companies to implement remote work set-up is expected to affect the leasing activity in Metro Manila.An average of 180,000 sqm of new supply per annum is expected in the next five years,25%lower than the projected five-year new supply in 2022 and
248、the 709,000 sqm average in the five years prior to the pandemic.After registering negative net absorption of 59,000 sqm in 2022,demand is expected to return to positive territory in 2023.Net absorption is set to grow strongly in 2024 to over 300,000 sqm,with further incremental growth thereafter to
249、2027.Rents are expected to grow by roughly 0.4%year-on-year by the end of 2023.From there,rents are expected to grow on average by 3.2%per year up to 2027.MANILAN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYA total of 327,000 sqm is expected to be completed in Q4 2023,while the completio
250、n of some developments is expected to slide into early 2024.Some developers are already firming up plans for pipeline developments scheduled for completion after 2027.0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTMANILAN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N
251、 D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYDespite the return of office space by several occupiers,absorption is expected to remain in positive territory.Office space absorption is expected to continue its strong recovery:total annual absorption in 2023 is expected surpass 2022
252、by 70%to reach over 340,000 sqm.For 2024 to 2027,average annual net absorption of 366,000 sqm is expected.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%-100,000-50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTMANILAR E
253、N T (P H P/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRents are expected to grow at an average of 2.3%over the forecast period.However,this is split with slower growth of just 1.1%in 2023-24From there,rents are expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2%annually
254、until 2027.-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%9501,0001,0501,1001,1501,200202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FPHP/SQM/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended t
255、o be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,ad
256、equacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not res
257、ponsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of t
258、his material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHClaro CorderoHead of Research,Consulting,and Advisory ServicesClaro.CLEASINGTetet CastroHead of Tenant Advisory GroupTetet.CASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of I
259、nternational Research,Asia Pacific CONTACTSS I N G A P O R E2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICESINGAPOREK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe city-states office market growth is expected to slow as supply and demand rebalance against the background of prolonged,heightened interest rates and a s
260、upply influx.Nonetheless,the office market is underpinned by a high return-to-office rate post-pandemic and resilient office demand thanks to Singapores position as a key regional business hub for Asia Pacific.Singapores CBD Grade A new office supply is set to soar to 1.9 msf in 2024,largely as a re
261、sult of the delayed completion of IOI Central Boulevard Towers.This is close to double the 10-year(2013-2022)annual average of 1 msf,providing more options for tenants.Post-2024,the CBD office market will return to a tight supply situation with limited new supply from 2025 to 2027.CBD Grade A office
262、 vacancy rates are expected to rise to about 5.4%in 2024 from 4.1%in 2023,as net absorption is outweighed by net supply.Despite a persistent flight-to-quality and shadow stock returning to pre-COVID levels,the higher-for-longer interest rate regime and global economic uncertainties could limit upsid
263、es to demand.CBD Grade A rental growth is forecast to moderate in 2024 to about 1%,down from the 3%growth in 2023.Occupiers facing extended CapEx constraints could hold back on relocation plans as the increase in new supply and potentially,secondary stock in 2024 will intensify competition for tenan
264、ts.SINGAPOREN E W S U P P LY (M S F)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYNew office market supply in the CBD is expected to surge next year with the completion of IOI Central Boulevard Towers(originally scheduled for completion in 2023)and Keppel South Central.Aside from new office supply,more secondar
265、y supply is anticipated to come into the market in 2024/2025.Between 2025 and 2027,office supply is expected to return to a tight supply situation which will support the rental market.0.00.51.01.52.02.5202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTSINGAPOREN E T A B S O R P T I O N (M S F)A N D VA C A N
266、C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYThe persistent flight-to-quality,combined with lower levels of shadow space,should keep office net absorption positive despite the economic slowdown.Office vacancy rates are expected to rise to about 5.4%next year as the net absorption of about 1.4
267、 msfis expected to fall short of the 1.9 msf of new supply.After 2024,office vacancy rates could tighten,supported by limited new supply and an improving economic outlook.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FNet Absorption Vacancy RateFORECASTSINGAP
268、ORER E N T (S G D/S F/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHWhile still positive,CBD Grade A office rental growth could moderate to around 1%in 2024 as supply soars and interest rates remain higher for longer.Global economic uncertainty and CapEx constrai
269、nts could continue to slow decision-making,with some occupiers delaying relocation or expansion plans and slowing office take-ups.Office rental growth is expected to pick up in 2025 with recovering economic growth and demand underpinned by Singapores status as a regional wealth and business hub.0.0%
270、1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%024680222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FSGP/SQFT/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the mar
271、kets or developments to which it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts o
272、r other forward-looking statements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a re
273、sult of or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinio
274、n included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHWong Xian YangHead of Research,Singapore&SEALEASINGJeryl TeohSenior Director,Commercial Leasing,SASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific CAPITAL MARKETSShaun PohExecut
275、ive DLEASINGDeyang LeongSenior Director,Commercial Leasing,SCONTACTSS O U T H KO R E A2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICESEOULK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYThe vacancy rate is expected to increase slightly to around 3%next year,due to a partial decrease in the space requirements of IT and s
276、tartup companies and the entry of new office supply.Rents are expected to continue to rise due to high corporate demand for prime office space.While new supply in 2024 is expected to double from 2023,it will still be insufficient to meet existing demand for office space.As demand for high-quality of
277、fice space increases,office vacancy rates will remain low until new office space becomes available.As the demand for high-quality office spaces in CBD and GBD continues to rise,it is anticipated that rents will increase.The market will continue to be favorable for landlords in 2023.SEOULN E W S U P
278、P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYThe supply of new buildings in 2023 fell far below the demand for office space after 2022 saw limited new supply enter the market.The 2024 supply pipeline is projected to double in comparison to 2023,yet it will still fall short of the existing demand fo
279、r office spaces.The increase in construction costs and stricter safety regulations may lead to delays in new office spaces.This will further contribute to an ongoing shortage of office supply in the future.050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000202120222023F2024F2025F2
280、026F2027FFORECASTSEOULN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYSeoul saw a notable decrease in vacancy rates due to the rising demand for office space from IT companies and startups during the pandemic.The global flight-to-qualitytrend conti
281、nues as the importance of improving employee well-being drives companies to upgrade their office spaces.It is anticipated that the office vacancy rate will remain low until new office spaces are supplied.However,the decrease in IT and startup company management as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic i
282、s expected to have a slightly negative effect on the demand for office space.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%-300,000-200,000-100,000-100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,0002020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTSEOULR E N T (K R W/S Q M/Y R)A N D R E N T G R
283、 O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRent growth is expected to reach 5.5%in 2023 in line with low vacancy rates and high inflation.The landlord-favourable market is likely to stay for a while.As the demand for Prime offices continues to rise,it is expected that rental fees
284、for prime office building in CBD,GBD will also increase.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FRent(KRW/SQM/YR)Rent GrowthFORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cush
285、man&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any informa
286、tion and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyo
287、nd the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or c
288、onsequential amages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHDr Jinwoo JungHead of Research,South KLEASINGRay KimHead of Leasing,South KASIA PACIFICDr Dominic
289、BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONYJ ChoiHead of Tenant Representation,South KCAPITAL MARKETSYK SonHead of Capital Markets,South KCONTACTST H A I L A N D2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEBANGKOKK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYFurther relocations from older
290、 office buildings to newer projects are expected to be seen over the coming quarters.Implementing the right workplace sizing strategy is now a priority for businesses.The Bangkok market broadly has sufficient stock but will need to focus more on quality improvements.A shift in corporate workplace st
291、rategy,the economic cycle and financial markets will all play an integral role in shaping tenant demand.613,957 sqm of new space is currently under construction and due to enter the market from 2024 to 2026.Of this,382,957 sqm is expected to enter the market in 2024.Tenant demand slowed down in 2023
292、;net absorption is expected to decline to 16,394 sqm in 2023.Overall office vacancy is expected to rise further,as an influx of new supply enters the market with low-to-moderate pre-let commitment levels.In response to an influx of space,we expect to see office leasing activity remain tenant favoura
293、ble.Rental growth is expected to remain unchanged in 2023 at THB 936 sqm/month.Beyond this,rents are forecast to grow slowly by 0.5%in 2024,to reach THB 940 sqm/month.BANGKOKN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLY613,957 sqm of new space is currently under construction and due to
294、enter the market from 2024 to 2026.Of this,382,957 sqm is expected to enter the market in 2024.2024 new supply comprises five projects:One Bangkok(Phase 1)Tower 3,4,5(289,000 sqm),JLK Tower(30,957 sqm),and Dusit Central Park(63,000 sqm).050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
295、20224F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTBANGKOKN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYNet absorption is expected to decline to 16,394 sqm in 2023.Beyond this,vacancy is expected to increase to 30.2%from 25.2%as an influx of new office supp
296、ly enters the market.The rise in vacancy rate will result from the remaining unoccupied space at new completions.Overall office vacancy is expected to rise further,as an influx of new supply enters the market with low-to-moderate pre-let commitment levels.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%020,00
297、040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,00020224F2025F2026F2027F Net AbsorptionVacancy RateFORECASTBANGKOKR E N T (T H B/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRental growth is expected to remain unchanged in 2023 at THB 936 sqm
298、/month.Beyond this,rents are forecast to grow slowly by 0.5%in 2024,to reach THB 940 sqm/month.Rent growth in 2024 will slow as new supply enters the market and provides occupiers with more options.Rent growth is expected to grow by 0.7%in 2025,and 0.8%in 2026.0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%91092093094
299、095096097098020224F2025F2026F2027FTHB/SQM/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to whic
300、h it refers.The material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking stat
301、ements contained in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to th
302、e use of this material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material
303、are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.RESEARCHSarawut TikhachonSenior Research Analyst,TLEASINGYupa SathienpayabutHead of Transactions,TASIA PACIFICDr Dominic BrownHead of International Research,Asia Pacific TENANT REPRESENTATIONAukit PronpattanapairojHead of Office Leasin
304、g,TCAPITAL MARKETSNita Athakaiwalvathi Senior Manager Investment&Advisory,ThailandNCONTACTSV I E T N A M2 0 2 4ASIA PACIFICOFFICEHANOIK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYSustainability and green buildings are going to be the key trend of new developments.The Starlake New Urban Area,whic
305、h is oriented to be a new commercial and business hub in the future,is increasingly attracting new developments.New infrastructure and new projects,either planned or under construction,are likely to make the area attract occupier attention.By the end of 2023,Hanoi CBD will have welcomed a total of 8
306、0,700 sqm of new supply from four projects,mainly located in Secondary districts surrounding the CBD area.Beyond this,another approx.100,000 sqm of new Grade A office space is forecast for the 202427 period.2023 net absorption is projected to reach 43,600 sqm,driven by strong market demand in the fi
307、rst half of the year.However,demand slowed in the second half of 2023 and is expected to stay low throughout 2024.Vacancy is expected to be between 2530%in 20232024,and then to gradually drop to around 20.5%in 2027.With the abundance of new supply across Hanoi,the market is expected to be tenant fav
308、orable over the forecast horizon.2023 rents are forecast to increase by 3.4%YoY thanks to new entrants in the urban core area with above-average rents.Rents are expected to remain stable in 2024 as more supply enters the market and landlords attempt to balance the influx of new supply with the unfav
309、orable economic situation.From 2025 onwards,rent growth is expected to be stable at around 11.3%per annum in line with the economic recovery.HANOIN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYHanoi welcomed 41,600 sqm of new supply in the first 10 months of 2023,with another 39,000 sqm e
310、xpected to launch by the end of the year.All of these projects are located in the Secondary submarket.Four more projects from the western part of Hanoi will join the market in 2024 and 2026,adding nearly 100,000 sqm of quality supply.On average,Hanois total stock will grow by 3.5%per annum throughou
311、t the 20232027 period.-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTHANOIN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYNet absorption is forecast to reach about 43,600 sqm by the end of 2023,thanks mainly to
312、 the leasing of new supply in H1 2023.The market was relatively quiet in the second half of 2023 due to economic hardship.In 2024,the vacancy rate will head higher to nearly 29%before gradually easing from 2025 as demand starts to recover.Relocation and expansion activity continues in sectors such a
313、s Co-working space,Logistics,and Insurance.Grade A tenants continue to focus on sustainable standards and hybrid working spaces.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FNet Absorption Vacancy RateFOREC
314、ASTHANOIR E N T (U S D/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHRents are expected to rise by 3.4%by the end of 2023,driven by new supply at good locations with above-average asking rents.Accordingly,citywide average gross rent is projected to reach US
315、D 32.2 sqm/mo.Rents are expected to remain stable in 2024 as competition from the influx of new supply becomes more prominent.From 2025,rent growth is projected to be around 11.3%per year.-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%28.029.030.031.032.033.034.0202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FUSD/SQM/MORe
316、nt growth(%)FORECASTHO CHI MINH CITYK E Y M E S S A G E SKEY OUTLOOKRENTSDEMANDSUPPLYNew supply from Thu Thiem New Urban Area(neighboring the CBD)marked a significant step for this submarket to be an extension of the current CBD area.District 7 and Thu Thiem New Urban Area will rise as new business
317、and commercial hubs of the city thanks to affordable rents,newer projects with advanced technology,abundant space for new development,and prospective infrastructure.New Grade A supply is expected in the CBD area(District 1)in 20242025 with the entry of 3 projects,contributing a total of 118,700 sqm
318、of office space to the market.About 81,000 sqm of additional Grade A supply is also expected from the Non-CBD area during the 20242026 period.All prospective projects are either pursuing or have attained ESG certifications,highlighting the shift in interests toward more sustainable development.Econo
319、mic instability has impacted general HCMC office demand as tenants become more cost-conscious.With low market sentiment,net absorption in 2023 is modest at around 21,000 sqm.Absorption will gradually rise from 2024,driven by higher-quality new supply and improved economic conditions.Overall vacancy
320、is expected to increase to 12.5%in 2023 from 3.7%in 2022.Vacancy above 20%is expected through 20232026,resulting from the constant stream of new supply.Rents are forecast to remain stable with less than 1%change until at least 2025 due to rising competition within both the CBD and Non-CBD.Accordingl
321、y,the net rent of the Grade A office is to be maintained around USD 56 sqm/mo in 20232024,before rising to USD 58.5 sqm/mo in 2025 with the entry of the largest Grade A project at the heart of the CBD area.HO CHI MINH CITYN E W S U P P LY (S Q M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldNEW SUPPLYHCMC welcomed 65,500
322、 sqm of new Grade A supply in 2023 from the non-CBD area.In 2024,an additional 85,500 sqm of Grade A office space is to be introduced to HCMC market.Two out of the three new projects will be in the prime location of the CBD.From 2025 onwards,two more projects are likely to come online.Marina Central
323、 Tower(67,600 sqm)will be the largest office building in the CBD area.-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FFORECASTHO CHI MINH CITYN E T A B S O R P T I O N (S Q M)A N D VA C A N C Y R AT E (%)Source:Cushman&WakefieldDEMAND&VACANCYThe Manufa
324、cturing,Banking,Real Estate Development,and Technology industries are experiencing the most leasing activity.Grade A new supply in the CBD and the East witnessed the most expansion and relocation activity in 2023,proving that supply leads demand in Vietnam.Citywide net absorption of Grade A office s
325、pace is expected to gradually increase in the upcoming year,driven by new supply with higher quality.With a consistent stream of new supply,vacancy is expected to remain high,even exceeding 20%.However,the vacancy rate is expected to trend downward from 2025 and 2026 when healthy take-up of new proj
326、ects is predicted.0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F Net Absorption Vacancy RateFORECASTHO CHI MINH CITYR E N T (U S D/S Q M/M O)A N D R E N T G R O W T H (%P E R A N N U M)Source:Cushman&WakefieldRENT GROWTHWit
327、h new supply from non-CBD along with slowing demand due to economic instability,landlords will likely remain cautious in rent offer and escalation throughout 2024.Rent growth may jump up to 5%in 2025 with the entry of new supply in the CBD.In 2026,despite the expected recovery in office demand in li
328、ne with the global economy,new supply in the non-CBD is expected to keep HCMC average rent stable.Generally,the HCMC office market rent growth is sensitive to new supply and to economic conditions.The average rent growth surging by 5%is due to new supply in the CBD in 2025 but is expected to fall ba
329、ck to 0%with the introduction of additional new supply in the non-CBD in 2026.In 20242027,the HCMC average rent is forecast to remain stable,with less than 1%change each year,except for the jump in rent in 2025.-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%53.0054.0055.0056.0057.0058.0059.0060.0020
330、2120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FUSD/SQM/MORent growth(%)FORECASTDisclaimer.The information in this material is general in nature and has been created by Cushman&Wakefield for information purposes only.It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers.Th
331、e material uses information obtained from a variety of sources which Cushman&Wakefield believe to be reliable however,it has not verified all or any information and does not represent,warrant or guarantee its accuracy,adequacy or completeness.Any forecasts or other forward-looking statements contain
332、ed in this material may involve significant elements of subjective judgment and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct and are beyond the control of Cushman&Wakefield.Cushman&Wakefield is not responsible for any loss suffered as a result of or in relation to the use of this
333、material.To the extent permitted by law,Cushman&Wakefield excludes any liability,including any liability for negligence,for any loss,including indirect or consequential damages arising from or in relation to the use of this material.All expressions of opinion included in this material are subject to change.2023 Cushman&Wakefield.All rights reserved.Dr Dominic BrownHead International Research,Asia