《Atradius:2023全球化工行业展望报告(英文版)(12页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Atradius:2023全球化工行业展望报告(英文版)(12页).pdf(12页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、November 2023Global Chemicals OutlookCONTENTS2ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKContents Chemicals global output to remain subdued until second half of 2024 3Regional overview of chemicals performance 5Does the war in Ukraine impact the chemicals industry?9How well is the chemicals industry prepared
2、for the major shift 9towards sustainability?What are the industrys primary growth drivers?10What are the main headwinds most likely to affect the industry?10Summary 11Our Trade Sector ExpertOlaf is the Atradius Trade Sector Expert for the chemicals industry.He started his career in 1987 at Atradius,
3、and works as a Senior Underwriter since 2005.Underwriting in the chemicals sector is an exciting and challenging task.Chemicals is a truly global industry and consists of many different sub-sectors.The chemicals industry is a supplier to virtually all commercial sectors and therefore has excellent d
4、iversification.As the chemicals sector is highly dependent on energy prices,it is important to keep an eye on these in individual countries in order to anticipate negative sector developments at an early stage.In addition,the increasing focus on sustainability affects the chemicals industry more tha
5、n other sectors and offers both opportunities and risks.Olaf Gierlichs-Steffens,Senior Underwriter,Cologne,Germany3ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKSo why is the industry facing such a bleak year?The reasons are complex and are rooted in the industrys reliance on energy,feedstocks and consumer confi
6、dence.The chemical industry was amongst the worst impacted by the energy crisis.Output is heavily eliant on oil and gas as feedstocks and requires energy-intensive manufacturing processes.High inflation and tight monetary policies are keeping feedstock prices high and are also causing buyers and con
7、sumers to cut back on spending.This weakening in demand means many chemical producers have been unable to pass on higher production costs to their customers.The outlook for the global chemicals market is gloomy with output growth predicted at just 0.1%this year.What growth there is in the market is
8、mainly being generated from Asia-Pacific,where China and India are increasing production.Meanwhile the Americas,Europe and Africa have all seen year-on-year contractions during 2023 and are unlikely to see production outputs pick up until the end of next year.Chemicals global output to remain subdue
9、d until second half of 2024 2025*Chemicals:global key figuresYear-on-year,%change.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.20222023*2024*0.80.5-12.2-0.36.50.70.20.43.60.13.14.4GROSS OUTPUT(SALES),REAL USDPRODUCTION INDEXINVESTMENT,REAL USDGROSS OPERATING SURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINAL USD4.80.84.14.7CONTENTS4AT
10、RADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKThe global chemicals outlook also tends to closely track global economic conditions.Chemicals products can be found in many other downstream industries and,therefore,industry growth patterns have been reflecting the economic slowdown.A rebound is in the cardsThe outloo
11、k will brighten next year.A rebound of 3.1%is predicted for the sector on a global level,driven by growing demand from sectors such as construction and household goods.Recovery will be gradual to begin with.Signs suggest that the growth momentum is unlikely to pick up pace until at least the second
12、half of 2024.Global chemicals output per subsectorYear-on-year,%change.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.BASIC CHEMICALSCHEMICALS TOTALAGROCHEMICALSPAINTS&COATINGSSOAPS&DETERGENTS20222023*2024*2025*0.80.13.14.42.1-1.74.93.34.91.93.84.41.61.92.33.3-1.7-1.83.24.9Chemicals:output per regionYear-on-yea
13、r,%change.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.20222023*2024*2025*0.1-2.4-0.12.12.13.14.85.7-3.6-5.62.13.85.91.92.50.2AMERICASASIA-PACIFICEUROPEMIDDLE EAST/AFRICACONTENTSChemical production remains competitively priced in China,but oversupply could become an issue,impacting margins.5ATRADIUS GLOBAL CH
14、EMICALS OUTLOOKRegional overview of chemicals performanceAsia-Pacific ChinaChemicals production in China is showing resilience,buoyed by domestic demand.Output is predicted to increase by 6.9%in 2023 and 5.2%in 2024.While the industry has been impacted by slow growth in the nations property sector,p
15、olicy measures designed to promote growth in key sectors such as construction and automotive,are supporting domestic demand for chemical goods across a spectrum of subsectors.Some clouds do darken the otherwise blue sky of the outlook for China,namely the prospect of trade tensions that could interr
16、upt supply chains.These are mainly focused on trade and technology issues and,so far,chemicals multinationals have remained committed to their Chinese production and investment plans.Chemical production remains competitively priced in China,supporting the outlook for exports.Will this remain the cas
17、e?Possibly,although oversupply is an issue impacting margins for many producers.IndiaThe Indian chemical industry is massive and is growing.It is currently the fifth largest in the world and is expected to extend its market share,outpacing global chemicals growth.Production is expected to increase 4
18、.3%in 2023 and 2.8%in 2024.Growth is being driven by domestic demand,with an expanding population and economy.There is also a government focus on growth in the industry locally.Government policies are supporting foreign direct investment and creating petroleum,chemicals and petrochemicals investment
19、 regions in a big to actively support growth over the coming decade.China:chemicals key figuresYear-on-year,%change.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.GROSS OUTPUT(SALES),REAL USDPRODUCTION INDEXINVESTMENT,REAL USDGROSS OPERATING SURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINAL USD20222023*2024*2025*7.06.95.25.47.06.95.25.
20、46.89.85.44.6-11.98.014.3-46.1CONTENTSFor Germanys chemical industry hub,the possibility of manufacturers relocating to countries with lower energy costs is a potential downside risk.6ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKUnited StatesChemicals output in the US is contracting.We are expecting it to shrin
21、k by 1.9%in 2023 and by 0.8%next year.Demand recovery for most chemicals subsectors is not expected until the second half of 2024.Demand for value-added production is not likely to gather momentum until 2025.Much of the slowdown has been due to high inflation and monetary policies delivering high in
22、terest rates,that in turn have created difficult lending conditions.The impact of this challenging economic situation has been particularly evident in downstream industrial sectors such as construction,durable goods and electronics.However,the industry will not remain subdued long term.The prospect
23、of growth is strong.When interest rates begin to ease and demand picks up,the highly competitive position of the US chemicals industry(especially base chemicals and fertilisers),along with the easing of supply chain disruptions,will support the rebound.As with other nations government policies are s
24、upporting growth in the industry.The CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act will accelerate the development of technology to reduce emissions.This will boost demand for chemicals used to make insulation materials,solar panels and other related products.US natural resources will also h
25、elp drive growth and attract investment.Shale gas,in particular,has led to more stable gas prices and has reduced the cost of producing chemicals such as ethylene.This is helping US chemical producers enjoy an advantage in cost competitiveness over their European and Asian peers,especially those tha
26、t typically use naphtha(a derivative of oil)in order to produce upstream chemicals.EuropeEurozone and UKDespite the recent fall in energy costs,chemicals businesses in Europe have experienced a contraction in output this year.By the end of 2023,we think chemicals output for the Eurozone will contrac
27、t by 6.4%and by 5.6%in the UK.As with the industry in other regions growth has been hampered by the decrease in demand caused by high inflation and interest rates.Many customers are also still destocking from elevated inventory levels,resulting in subdued demand.We should start to see the green shoo
28、ts of recovery in 2024,although this will be modest,with estimates pointing to 2.4%in the eurozone and just 0.3%in the UK.The slow return to growth will be influenced by weak global demand and the continuation of high energy costs.GermanyGermany is by far the largest chemicals producer in Europe,acc
29、ounting for more than 4%of global chemicals output.USA:chemicals key figuresYear-on-year,%change.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.GROSS OUTPUT(SALES),REAL USDPRODUCTION INDEXINVESTMENT,REAL USDGROSS OPERATING SURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINAL USD20222023*2024*2025*-0.2-1.9-0.81.8-0.2-1.3-0.81.8-3.0-0.44.23
30、.912.2-2.5-3.82.8CONTENTS7ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKDuring 2022,chemicals production in Germany contracted by a significant 12%.By the end of 2023 production is prediction to shrink by another 10%,followed by a modest 1%rebound in 2024.Although such huge drops in production will inevitably af
31、fect the industry in Germany,the impact is not likely to be severe.This is because the sector is fairly robust with strong capitalisation,good access to external financing and a well-balanced debt profile.That said,energy prices are high and present a concern to the industry.The biggest risks includ
32、e the possibility of manufacturers relocating to countries where energy costs are lower.Businesses that are unable to pass on increased production costs to customers could struggle with cash flow and,in turn,may present a credit risk to their suppliers.Germany:chemicals key figuresYear-on-year,%chan
33、ge.(*Forecast)Source:Oxford Economics.GROSS OUTPUT(SALES),REAL USDPRODUCTION INDEXINVESTMENT,REAL USDGROSS OPERATING SURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINAL USD20222023*2024*2025*-12.2-10.11.05.7-12.2-10.11.05.7-13.1-9.92.99.0-7.7-4.0-5.43.5Eurozone and UK:chemicals key figuresYear-on-year,%change.(*Forecast)Sourc
34、e:Oxford Economics.GROSS OUTPUT(SALES),REAL USDPRODUCTION INDEXINVESTMENT,REAL USDGROSS OPERATING SURPLUS(PROFITS),NOMINAL USD20222023*2024*2025*-4,5-7.02.24.3-3.9-7.62.14.4-4.2-8.61.55.7-1.9-1.14.00.0CONTENTSThe increased global focus on sustainability is likely to result in improved processes,redu
35、ced environmental impacts and better,safer products.8ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOK Issues that could impact the industry CONTENTS9ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKHow well is the chemicals industry prepared for the major shift towards sustainability?There has been a growing recognition of the en
36、vironmental impacts of the chemical industry,particularly in terms of energy consumption,emissions,waste production,and resource utilisation.In response many companies have started to develop sustainable production processes,including the use of eco-friendly technologies,and green chemistry processe
37、s.This presents a range of opportunities for the industry as it brings to market new sustainable materials and processes.The industry already invests heavily in R&D.The increased global focus on sustainability is likely to result in improved processes,reduced environmental impacts and better,safer p
38、roducts.However,without technological advances,such as using hydrogen as a sustainable feedstock or a source of fuel,there will be a limit on how much the energy mix can shift away from fossil fuels and lower emissions in the sector.Some industry commentators have raised the possibility of an increa
39、sed credit risk for the industry in Europe,in light of the EUs ambitious sustainability plans.However,this is hard to predict.It depends on various factors like energy price levels,the cost of environmental protection measures,Does the war in Ukraine impact the chemicals industry?Russias invasion of
40、 Ukraine has had a massive and possibly permanent impact on energy trade flows into Europe.Although this affects all sectors,the chemicals industry has been especially affected due to its reliance on energy intensive processes and on oil and gas for certain feedstocks.Although gas prices have eased
41、recently,they are still eye-wateringly high,and remain 70%above the average cost during the 2015-2019 period.These high energy costs,along with high production costs and tight regulations means many European chemicals businesses may struggle to compete with their American or Asian counterparts.Howev
42、er,although some European firms are announcing plans to adjust their production strategies in order to ensure economic viability,in the short term at least we do not expect to see a serious deterioration in terms of the financial strength of the players.In the long term,they might be affected by hig
43、h input costs and lower demand.changes in demand for more eco-friendly products and the risk of losing market share to competitors that have already implemented sustainable practices.Plastics subsectorIndividual subsectors also face their own challenges.For example,bans on many single-use plastics a
44、re being implemented in growing numbers of regions and territories throughout the world including the EU,UK,China,Taiwan,Canada some US states and cities,and some African nations.While unquestionably good for the environment,such policies will impact the plastics industry which is tasked with the ch
45、allenge of finding alternative materials that are more environmentally friendly while offering similar functionalities.Agricultural chemicals subsectorPesticides and fertilisers used in agriculture can have environmental impacts,including soil and water pollution.The challenge for the subsector is t
46、o develop more sustainable agricultural practices and meet environmental targets.Some of these are legally binding,such as those laid out in the EUs Farm to Fork strategy,which seeks to reduce the use of hazardous pesticides by 50%by 2030.It remains to be seen how long this situation will last.High
47、investments in a“greener”industry will need to be financed in the short to medium term,but financing should not be a problem for players with very good credit ratios.CONTENTSCurrently it is still hard to predict if the EUs ambitious sustainability plans will lead to increased credit risk for the che
48、micals industry in Europe.10ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKWhat are the industrys primary growth drivers?What are the main headwinds most likely to affect the industry?The chemicals industry enjoys an almost unique position in that its products are in demand from a wide range of other industries.C
49、hemical goods are widely used in global manufacturing supply chains from pharmaceuticals to agriculture and manufacturing to cutting-edge technology.This creates strong resilience and is a major driver of the industrys growth trends.In addition to robust demand in B2B markets is a growing consumer d
50、emand,especially in emerging markets.Growing affluence among consumers in emerging markets is resulting in greater purchasing power and growing demand for consumer goods,cars,household disposables including soaps and detergents,as well as construction materials that are chemicals-based.Growing globa
51、l consumer demand for electric vehicles can also be identified as an important growth driver for the industry.The recent surge in electric vehicle production is resulting in increased demand for high-performance plastics and chemicals for use in batteries.As the global population grows,so does the n
52、eed to increase agricultural productivity.This is likely to drive long-term demand for fertilisers,pesticides and other agrochemicals,as well as potential growth in areas such as genetically modified crops.As previously discussed,energy prices are a critical factor affecting growth in the chemicals
53、industry.As an energy-intensive industry,it is highly susceptible to oil and gas price volatility.As the industry,and indeed the world,transitions toward clean energy this will create challenges as well as opportunities for the sector.Chemical businesses will face ever tighter regulatory directives,
54、as well as changing customer preferences.In fact,there is already growing demand for green and ethical products.This includes consumers asking where ingredients come from and assessing environmental impacts.Decarbonisation involves substantive financial investment.However,few chemicals businesses ca
55、n afford to be left behind as they face increasing pressure from various stakeholder groups.Moving forward,ESG performance is expected to be benchmarked as highly as cost and other productivity metrics.CONTENTS11ATRADIUS GLOBAL CHEMICALS OUTLOOKWhat are the top three opportunities for the chemicals
56、sector during the next few years?Sustainable and green chemistryGlobal demand for sustainability presents a significant opportunity for the chemical industry to develop and market environmentally friendly products and processes.This includes bio-based materials,renewable energy solutions and circula
57、r waste and resource consumption.Digital transformationEmbracing digital technologies such as artificial intelligence,machine learning and the Internet of Things(IoT)can help chemicals companies streamline their operations and enhance their efficiency.Data analytics can optimise production processes
58、,supply chain management,enable predictive maintenance and even support product development.Advanced materialsSectors such as electronics,automotive and aerospace are driving increased demand for high-performance materials.This is creating opportunities for the chemicals industry to develop material
59、s to meet specific needs,as well the chance to collaborate with technology providers and engage with sustainability initiatives.Strategic investment into R&D will be needed to help chemicals businesses capitalise on opportunities.Growth in the electric vehicle sector is creating demand for high perf
60、ormance plastics.SummaryRegulatory and compliance pressuresStricter environmental regulations mean chemicals businesses will face increasing regulatory scrutiny.Meeting these requirements while maintaining profitability and innovation could be challenging,especially for companies with complex supply
61、 chains and operations.Transition to sustainabilityIn addition to providing opportunities for the industry,the focus on improving sustainability also presents challenges.Primary among these is the need for investment into research,technology and process reengineering.In addition,growing consumer dem
62、and for green or ethical products often chemicals companies are increasingly required to explain environmental impact,list chemicals in products and benchmark decarbonisation actions.Geopolitical uncertaintiesThe chemicals industry can be vulnerable to supply chain disruptions,tariffs,trade restrict
63、ions and geopolitical conflicts.Addressing these challenges necessitates strategic planning,agile business models,collaboration with regulatory bodies,and proactive approach to adopting sustainable practices.As an energy-intensive industry,the chemical industry is highly susceptible to oil and gas p
64、rice volatility.What are the constraints and downside risks for the chemicals industry in the mid and long term?CONTENTSAtradius David Ricardostraat 1 1066 JS AmsterdamP.O.box 8982 1006 JD AmsterdamThe NetherlandsPhone:+31(0)20-553 91 Copyright Atradius N.V.2023Disclaimer:This publication is provide
65、d for information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice,legal advice or as a recommendation as to particular transactions,investments or strategies to any reader.Readers must make their own independent decisions,commercial or otherwise,regarding the information provided.While we hav
66、e made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from reliable sources,Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions,or for the results obtained from the use of this information.All information in this publication is provided as is,with no
67、 guarantee of completeness,accuracy,timeliness or of the results obtained from its use,and without warranty of any kind,express or implied.In no event will Atradius,its related partnerships or corporations,or the partners,agents or employees thereof,be liable to you or anyone else for any decision m
68、ade or action taken in reliance on the information in this publication or for any loss of opportunity,loss of profit,loss of production,loss of business or indirect losses,special or similar damages of any kind,even if advised of the possibility of such losses or damages.Connect with Atradius on social