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1、November 2022Industry Trends Chemicals Industry Focus on sector business performance and credit risk2DisclaimerThis report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice,legal advice or as a recommendation as to particular transactions,investments or strategies to
2、 any reader.Readers must make their own independent decisions,commer-cial or otherwise,regarding the information provided.While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has been obtained from reliable sources,Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omi
3、ssions,or for the results obtained from the use of this information.All information in this report is provided as is,with no guarantee of completeness,accuracy,timeliness or of the results obtained from its use,and without warranty of any kind,express or implied.In no event will Atradius,its related
4、 partnerships or corporations,or the partners,agents or employees thereof,be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in this report or for any consequential,special or similar damages,even if advised of the possibil-ity of such damages.Copyri
5、ght Atradius N.V.2022In this issue.Chemical industry performance per market .3Introduction Global chemicals performance at a glance .4China Lockdowns and lower economic growth weigh on the industry .5 France Most businesses are able to cope with the difficult market conditions .6 Germany Still resil
6、ient,but profitability is under threat .7 Italy More resilient to market shocks than other industries .8 Japan Pressure on profitability to remain limited .9 The Netherlands Increasing pressure from overseas competitors .10 Spain Concerns about liquidity strain have increased .11 United Kingdom Subd
7、ued demand,but deterioration of profitability should remain limited .12 United States A sharper focus on de-carbonisation strategies .13 3On the following pages we indicate the general outlook for each sector featured using these symbols:Chemical industry performance per marketNovember 2022AustriaSl
8、ovakiaAustraliaBelgiumSpainChinaCzech Rep.SwedenHong KongDenmarkSwitzerlandIndiaFranceTurkeyIndonesiaGermany United KingdomJapanHungaryNew ZealandIrelandBrazilSingaporeItalyCanadaSouth KoreaThe NetherlandsMexicoTaiwanPolandUSAThailandPortugalUnited Arab EmiratesExcellent The credit risk situation in
9、 the sector is strong/business performance in the sector is strong compared to its long-term trendPoor The credit risk in the sector is relatively high/business perfor-mance in the sector is below its long-term trendGood The credit risk situation in the sector is benign/business performance in the s
10、ector is above its long-term trendBleak The credit risk in the sector is poor/business performance in the sector is weak compared to its long-term trendFair The credit risk situation in the sector is average/business performance in the sector is stable4Global chemicals performance at a glance Shorta
11、ge of gas/gas rationing:The chemical industry is very energy intensive and requires high levels of natural gas as feedstock.There is looming uncer-tainty about the war in Ukraine and its destabilising effect on energy supply,for Europe in particular.Major gas shortage or gas rationing measures would
12、 severely affect European chemical producers.Economic downturn in advanced economies:Persistent and broadening inflation pressures,and aggressive tightening from central banks in re-sponse,are increasingly weighing on the outlook for advanced economies.A persistent recession and on-going high inflat
13、ion could lead to sharply deteriorat-ing chemicals demand from both consumers and key buyer industries such as automotive and construction.Short-term challengesGlobal chemicals Regional cost competiveness:The US shale gas boom has restructured the landscape of the global chemical industry,particular
14、ly for basic chemicals.The US chemical industry has a feedstock cost advantage due to low and more stable gas prices,attracting larger investments.Other regions,in particular Europe,are facing a long-term competitive disadvantage.Rising middle class in emerging markets:Rapid urbanization and increas
15、ing household purchasing power of the middle class in emerging markets should boost demand for soaps and detergents products.Energy transition and sustainability concerns:This will create challenges and opportunities for chemical business as companies face tighter regulatory direc-tives and changing
16、 customer preferences.There is growing demand for green and ethical products.This includes consumers asking where ingredients come from and assessing environmental impacts.Compa-nies are facing major investments in decarbonisation and optimisation of their carbon footprint.Pressure from various stak
17、eholder groups is increasing,and ESG performance is expected to be benchmarked as highly as cost and other productivity metrics.Mid-and long-term outlook:opportunities and challengesBasic chemicals Agrochemicals Paints and coatingsSoaps and detergentsSource:Oxford Economics20212022*2023*2024*Global
18、chemicals outputy-on-y,%change*forecast402685.67.46.20.70.22.35.10.92.73.13.31.23.53.23.52.4Chemicals output per regionSource:Oxford EconomicsWorld Asia-Pacific Europey-on-y,%change*forecast20212022*2023*2020-2026*Americas -51005155.82.06.59.01.40.43.2-2.82.5-0.24.7-0.22.71.33.81.55Chinese chemicals
19、 output decreased in Q2 of 2022,due to lockdowns in Shanghai and several other cities/regions which are major hubs for chemicals production.Many producers had to temporarily cease operations and faced supply chain disruptions.The lockdowns also negatively affected chemicals demand from households an
20、d key buyer industries like automotive.Since Q3 of 2022 chemical production and sales have rebounded,as lockdowns have been eased and the economy recovered.However,demand remains subdued due to the looming downside risk of renewed Covid-related restrictions.Overall margins of chemical businesses dec
21、reased in Q1-Q3 of 2022,due to increased energy and raw material costs.We expect no substantial improvement of profit margins in 2023.The lockdowns and supply chain disruptions in H1 of 2022 triggered liquidity issues for many businesses,and we observed an increase in payment delays and non-payments
22、.We expect non-payment and insolvencies will increase by 5%-10%in the coming 12 months.This is because economic growth is forecast to slow from 8.1%in 2021 to 3.2%in 2022 and 4.9%in 2023 while the global demand for chemicals remains subdued.Covid-related restrictions continue to affect economic acti
23、vity,although authorities have fine-tuned the zero-Covid policy in order to reduce supply-side disruptions.China Lockdowns and lower economic growth weigh on the industryPerformance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsAgrochemicals Paints and coatingsSource:AtradiusAmong subsectors,the credit ri
24、sk is highest for paints and coatings.Businesses in this segment have suffered losses due to high commodity prices and deteriorating demand from the ailing property market.That said,the agrochemical subsector is expanding,with China being a global key producer and export center for agrochemicals.Bas
25、ic chemicals have shown an upward trend of sales this year but could face weaker demand and oil price volatility in the coming months.Tighter environmental rules have been introduced since 2015,aimed at upgrading green technology innovation.High emitters have been gradually phased out,and such closu
26、res will continue.Given higher environmental standards and related cost increases,small and medium-sized chemical businesses could face problems in the short-term.China chemicals output Source:Oxford Economics*forecasty-on-y,%changeChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*062487.26.05.42023
27、*5.3China chemicals-credit risk assessment Business conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financelowNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthsaveragebig increa
28、seincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sectorlowNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 monthsFair-6In 2021,French chemicals production grew by more than 5%.However,since Q2 of 2022 output and sales are facing
29、decreasing demand from key buyer industries,and sharply increased input prices for commodities and energy.Additionally,high freight costs weigh on businesses financials.All this puts high pressure on margins and cash flow of businesses.The paints and coating segment suffers from a combination of hig
30、h energy prices and less demand from automotive,aeronautics and construction.In the agrochemical subsector the significant cost increase of energy and raw materials has resulted in sharply reduced production by some companies.That said,the basic chemicals subsector mainly consists of larger companie
31、s with good upstream/downstream integration and remains resilient in the current situation.Many producers active in the soap and detergent segment are able to pass on increased raw material prices to their customers.Payments in the industry take about 60 days on average domestically,while payment du
32、ration could be longer in export markets.Payment behavior has been good during the past two years,with a historically low number of payment delays.However,as very high energy costs negatively affect businesses margins and cash situation,we expect payment delays to increase in the coming 12 months by
33、 about 30%.That said,we expect only a France Most businesses are able to cope with the difficult market conditionsFrance chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*-51005155.6-3.5-0.31.9France chemicals-credit risk assessment
34、Business conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financehighNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthsaveragebig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Sourc
35、e:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)-Overall indebtedness of the sector?highNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 months-Fair-slight increase in insolvencies of about 1%.Many companies in the chemicals sector are larger financially strong players,able cope with the difficult
36、 market environment.Therefore,we still assess the credit risk situation of the French chemicals sector as“Fair”.Additionally,the French government continues to support companies affected by high energy prices.Currently a proposal to double aid for energy-intensive businesses is under discussion.The
37、government could also act as a guarantor for energy contracts.However,state measures will also pose challenges in the coming years,as the French government plans to reduce emissions caused by the chemical industry-by 26%in 2030 compared to 2015.In order to reach this target a high level of capital e
38、xpenditure is required.In particular,the plastics segment is facing the need for a speedy transformation due to environmental regulations,for example the EU ban on single-use plastics.Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsPaints and coatings Soaps and detergentsSource:Atradius7Producti
39、on volumes in the German chemicals industry are currently shrinking,but due to higher sales prices,sales volumes are still slightly growing.With sharply increased energy and raw material prices,10%of companies have recorded strong production declines,while 40%report sales growth.Energy and commodity
40、 prices have increased between 35%-50%for producers,which,in most cases,they can only partly pass on to end-customers.Consequently,about 70%of chemical businesses report decreasing profits.Large fiscal support should provide some relief for chemicals and other energy-intensive industries.The German
41、parliament recently passed an energy-relief package worth EUR 200 billion to support businesses and households alike,and the government plans to introduce price caps on electricity and gas early next year.However,stubbornly high inflation,higher interest rates and lower economic growth will negative
42、ly affect demand for chemicals in the coming months.Generally,German chemicals businesses have robust equity,solvency and liquidity,which provides resilience in the current situation.A strong capitalization across the sector facilitates access to external financing,with an acceptable indebtedness st
43、ructure and a well-balanced debt maturity profile.However,rising interest rates will increase financing costs for necessary investments(production facilities,tighter environmental requirements),which could lead to lower profitability.Germany Still resilient,but profitability is under threat Germany
44、chemicals outputy-on-y,%change-105-5010Source:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*5.8-8.2-1.14.3Payments in the chemicals industry take about 30-60 days on average,and payment behavior has been very good during the past two years.Currently we expect no sub
45、stantial increase in payment delays and insolvencies in 2023.However,despite strong fiscal support,there is still the downside risk of persisting high gas prices next year and/or a shortage of gas,which could trigger higher default rates and insolvencies.We currently assess the credit risk situation
46、 of the chemicals sector as“Fair”,due to its financial resilience and still low default rate.Along subsectors,we see higher risks for the agrochemicals segment,which in the past received most raw materials from Ukraine and Russia,while high prices will curb sales.The soaps and detergent segment are
47、extraordinarily affected by high raw material prices and face lower household consumption due to high inflation.Germany chemicals-credit risk assessmentBusiness conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financeaverageNon-payments o
48、ver the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 monthsF
49、air-Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsPaints and coatings Soaps and detergentsSource:Atradius8After a robust rebound in 2021,chemicals output and sales have slowed sharply since H1 of 2022.Exports as a main driver of growth have plummeted,as demand from main European markets(France
50、,Germany)has decreased.Domestic demand from automotive and textiles remains modest.Sales to construction are also slowing down,affecting the paints and coating segment.High inflationary pressures impact household consumption of soaps and detergents.Due to the currently very high energy and feedstock
51、 prices,Italian chemicals manufacturers face competitive headwind from overseas peers,while at the same time demand from main-end markets is decreasing.Additionally,there are supply chain issues with virgin naphtha,one of the main raw materials needed by the Italian chemicals industry.Rising prices
52、for commodities and gas have caused some chemicals manufacturers to stop production and to apply for furlough schemes.The scope and scale of public support to shield businesses from high energy prices remain to be seen.Despite deteriorating margins,Italian chemical manufacturers remain well capitali
53、zed and not overly dependent on external financing.This makes the industry more resilient to market shocks compared to other sectors.Due to very high energy costs,we expect payment delays to increase in the coming 12 months.According to the latest Atradius Payment Italy More resilient to market shoc
54、ks than other industriesItaly chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*-51005158.1-1.30.62.6Practices Barometer,Days Sales Outstanding(DSO)average more than 100 days,and there is concern among businesses about deteriorating
55、DSO in the coming months.We also expect more insolvencies in this period,although from a very low level.In case of a serious shortage of gas over a longer period,or gas rationing,the insolvency risk would sharply increase,particularly for smaller chemical producers and traders.Despite the current ma
56、jor challenges,we assess the credit risk situation of the Italian chemicals sector still as“Fair”,due to its financial resilience and low default rate.The basic and specialties segments continue to perform well,while we perceive higher credit risk in the agrochemicals segment.This subsector suffers
57、severely from a shortage of raw materials,which previously mainly came from Ukraine and Russia,while payment collection time is historically long.Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsAgrochemicalsPaints and coatingsSource:AtradiusItaly chemicals-credit risk assessmentBusiness conditio
58、nsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financeaverageNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand
59、situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 monthsFair-9After a decrease across all subsectors in Q2 of 2022,Japanese chemicals production has rebounded again in Q3.The short-term outlook remains positive,with modest but
60、 steady growth rates.Domestic household chemicals consumption continues to recover,due to pent-up demand for soaps and detergents(up 3.7%in 2022).At the same time,demand from automotive as a key customer sector is increasing,in line with an easing of the global chip shortage.Overseas markets account
61、 for about 50%of chemicals sales,and external demand has increased again in Q3.However,weaker economic growth in advanced economies and in China could dampen exports in the coming months.Higher energy prices remain a concern,although the industry does not overly depend on oil and gas supplies from R
62、ussia.While the weakness of the yen supports exports,it leads to higher costs for energy and commodity imports.Fully passing on higher input prices for energy and raw materials to end-customers remains difficult.Therefore,we expect margins of chemicals businesses to shrink in the Financial Year(FY)2
63、022(April 1,2022 to March 31,2023).However,most companies recorded growing profitability in the FY 2021 due to favourable market conditions.Japan Pressure on profitability to remain limited Japan chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*2
64、0212022*2023*-240263.0-1.61.50.2Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsPaints and coatings Soaps and detergentsSource:AtradiusPayments in the Japanese chemicals sector take 30-120 days on average,and payment behavior has been good during the past two years.The number of payment delays a
65、nd insolvencies in the industry has been low during the past couple of years,and we expect no significant deterioration in 2023.We assess the credit risk situation of the Japanese chemicals sector as“Good”across all segments,because pressure on profitability will remain limited,banks are willing to
66、provide loans,and the majority of businesses are not highly geared.In the long-term,high domestic production costs and cheaper competition from China and the US is likely to have a negative effect on output capacities,particularly in the basic chemicals subsector.We expect that businesses in this se
67、gment will try to climb up the value chain towards low-carbon and specialized products made for key buyer sectors like automotive.Japan chemicals-credit risk assessmentBusiness conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financeavera
68、geNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the
69、 next 12 monthsGood-10Dutch chemicals output should decrease by about 4%in 2022 as the industry suffers from high energy prices and supply bottlenecks of raw materials.In 2023,we expect output contraction to lower to about 1%because supply issues of commodities will ease.Competitors from overseas(pa
70、rticularly in the US)currently face comparatively lower energy costs.This makes it difficult for Dutch and European chemical producers to pass on their sharply increased energy bills to end-customers.The number of Dutch chemicals companies which have reduced or temporarily stopped production has inc
71、reased,because being fully operational is no longer profitable.Many intermediate products supplied by the chemical industry go to the rubber,plastics and furniture industries.Therefore,production bottlenecks have an adverse effect on the manufacturing capabilities of those sectors.Profit margins inc
72、reased in 2021 due to robust sales,but have started to decrease since Q2 of 2022 and will further deteriorate in the coming months.After very low numbers of payment delays and insolvencies seen in 2021 and in Q1-Q3 of 2022,there will be substantial increases in 2023.The main reason is the combinatio
73、n of high energy prices,lack of commodities,and fierce competition from abroad.Much will depend on the future development of gas prices,with the downside risk of gas rationing measures.Dutch small and medium-sized businesses whose energy costs amount to at least 7%of turnover can receive a compensat
74、ion over the period 1 November 2022 up to and including December 2023 of a maximum of EUR The Netherlands Increasing pressure from overseas competitorsThe Netherlands chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*-42-2041.6-3.9-0
75、.91.5160,000 through the Energy Costs Allowance Scheme for Energy-intensive SMEs(TEK).We expect the 2023 insolvency surge of chemicals businesses to be much lower than the 77%increase we expect for all Dutch businesses.Coming from a very low level,the increase will be a return to(normal)pre-Covid le
76、vels.We currently assess the credit risk situation of the Dutch chemicals industry as“Fair”,given the strong financial position of many businesses,in particular multinational players.However,challenges are mounting.Should high gas prices in the Netherlands persist over a longer period,new investment
77、s in chemicals production sites could drift to markets where energy is less expensive.Additionally,higher investments in order to meet environmental standards will be a challenge,due to both tighter regulations and growing demand from consumers for greener products.Performance forecast along subsect
78、orsBasic chemicalsAgrochemicals Paints and coatings Source:AtradiusThe Netherlands chemicals-credit risk assessment Business conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financeaverageNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of
79、 banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthsaveragebig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 months-Fair+-+11Demand from key buyer in
80、dustries like automotive and construction has been stable so far in 2022.However,with persistently high inflation and a subdued 0.8%economic growth expectation in 2023,sales will most probably deteriorate in the coming months.After decreasing profits in Q2 of 2022 due to high energy(gas)and commodit
81、y costs,chemical producers have started to pass on price increases to end-customers since Q3.This resulted in a partial recovery of margins.Additionally,the Spanish government supports chemicals and other industries affected by high energy prices with state-guaranteed loans and a gas price cap.Lever
82、age of Spanish chemical businesses is generally not high,due to the sector being a good cash and EBITDA generator.Banks are mostly willing to provide loans,with bank finance usually required for acquisitions,important investments(in plants and equipment,for example)or working capital needs.According
83、 to the latest Atradius Payment Practices Barometer,payment terms average 67 days from invoicing in the Spanish chemical industry,while Days Sales Outstanding(DSO)average more than 100 days.There is concern among businesses about deteriorating DSO in the coming months and a subsequent strain on liqu
84、idity.After low levels seen during the past twelve months,Spain Concerns about liquidity strain have increasedSpain chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*-4-23.8-1.70.12.4204Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chem
85、icalsPaints and coatings Soaps and detergentsSource:Atradiuswe expect both payment delays and insolvencies to increase in 2023,as demand shrinks and input costs remain elevated.However,we do not expect a severe deterioration of the sectors performance.We currently assess the credit risk situation of
86、 the Spanish chemicals sector as“Fair”across all segments.However,downside risks remain,as higher financing costs and deteriorating payment behavior increase the financial pressure on businesses,while at the same time demand from key buyer industries is about to decrease.At the same time,Spanish che
87、mical companies could benefit from lower competition next year.This would be the case if their peers in central Europe are forced to cut production due to further rising gas prices or even gas rationing.Spain chemicals-credit risk assessmentBusiness conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentPr
88、ofit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financeaverageNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of th
89、e sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 monthsFair-12We forecast UK chemicals output to decrease by 8%in 2022 and about 2%in 2023,because high energy and input prices are weighing on the industry.High inflation and rising interest rates continues to erode ho
90、usehold purchasing power,while GDP will contract in 2023.This all leads to lower demand for products such as soaps and detergents or cars,with automotive being a key buyer sector for chemicals.A slowdown in construction activity will additionally curb demand from the paints and coatings segment.To c
91、ope with high energy prices,chemical manufacturers are sometimes required to renegotiate price contracts with their customers.This is to try to ensure they remain sustainable in the medium to long-term,but has led to several plant closures.While some businesses are able to pass on costs to their buy
92、ers,those with fixed contracts are susceptible to financial pressure.In order to support businesses,the British government announced an energy price cap for six months until April 2023.In the chemicals sector,gearing mainly relates to working capital requirements driven by prices/seasonality.Busines
93、ses generally do not have to meet large interest and capital repayments.This provides some scope to manage the current deterioration in profitability.Banks are still willing to provide loans to the industry.United Kingdom Subdued demand,but deterioration of profitability should remain limited United
94、 Kingdom chemicals output-105-5010Source:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*4.0-8.0-1.8-0.1y-on-y,%changePayments in the British chemicals sector take 60-90 days on average,and the number of payment delays and insolvencies in the industry has been low dur
95、ing the past 18 months.As high energy and commodity costs continue to burden businesses,we expect insolvencies to increase by about 5%in 2023.We assess the credit risk situation of the UK chemicals sector as“Fair”across most segments,because the deterioration of profitability should remain limited,b
96、anks are still willing to provide loans,and the expected increase in business failures will not be overly high.In the mid and long-term,the impact of Brexit could weigh on chemical industry prospects,causing a shortage of skilled workforce and an increased regulatory burden.While the United Kingdom
97、has set up its own regulatory system for the chemicals sector(UK REACH)since January 2021,compliance costs for exports to the EU are expected to increase.Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsAgrochemicals Paints and coatings Source:AtradiusUnited Kingdom chemicals-credit risk assessme
98、ntBusiness conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financehighNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsolvencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source
99、:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 months-Fair-13The US chemicals industry currently faces a more difficult domestic market environment,due to lower economic growth,continued high inflation and r
100、ising interest rates.Higher oil prices have put pressure on margins,in particular in the basic chemicals segment.However,many businesses could increase their sales prices in order to offset higher input costs.After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,the US fertilizer segment has seen increased deman
101、d,leading to higher sales prices and margins.The US chemicals sector currently outperforms most other regions.In particular European chemical businesses struggle with record high gas prices since Russias invasion in Ukraine.In contrast,US producers can rely on relatively cheaper domestic shale gas.T
102、his competitive advantage supports exports,expected to grow by 7%in 2022,and has led to a rising trade surplus(forecast USD 26 billion in 2022).Payment duration in the US chemicals sector is about 80 days on average.The amount of non-payments and insolvencies has been low in 2021 and 2022,and we exp
103、ect no deterioration in 2023.Mergers and acquisitions across the industry have led to increased levels of debt,but in most cases with long maturity.The sector has good access to capital markets and bank loans in order to fund operations.We currently assess the credit risk situation of the US chemica
104、ls United States A sharper focus on de-carbonisation strategiesUnited States chemicals outputy-on-y,%changeSource:Oxford Economics*forecastChemicals(excluding Pharmaceuticals)2024*20212022*2023*-42-2042.20.6-0.61.2Performance forecast along subsectorsBasic chemicalsPaints and coatingsSoaps and deter
105、gentsSource:Atradiusindustry as“Fair”,given the satisfying profit margin situation,low number of business failures and good access to external financing.Future opportunities for the industry include increasing exports to emerging markets(Asia-Pacific,Africa,Middle East)and rising demand for alternat
106、ive fuels.Challenges for chemicals businesses are the smooth integration of acquisitions in order to reach synergies,as well as the need to onboard new revenue sources.Another major task ahead comes with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet tighter environmental requirements.
107、In 2023 and beyond the US chemicals industry is likely to have a sharper focus on de-carbonization strategies,in order to meet increasing demand from shareholders and comply with regulatory changes.At the same time,government schemes to boost emission reduction will increase demand for chemicals use
108、d in insulation materials,solar panels etc.United States chemicals-credit risk assessment Business conditionsFinancing conditionsDefault assessmentProfit margins:trend over the next 12 monthsDependence on bank financehighNon-payments over the next 12 monthsWillingness of banks to provide creditInsol
109、vencies over the last 12 monthshighbig increaseincreasestabledecreasebig decrease Source:AtradiusDemand situation(sales)Overall indebtedness of the sector?averageNon-payments over the last 12 monthsInsolvencies over the next 12 monthsFair Atradius N.V.David Ricardostraat 1 1066 JS AmsterdamPostbus 8
110、982 1006 JD AmsterdamThe NetherlandsPhone:+31 20 553 9111 If youve found this report useful,why not visit our website ,where youll find many more Atradius publications focusing on the global economy,including more country reports,industry analysis,credit management business guidance and essays on current business issues.Follow us to stay up to date with our latest releases.Connect with us on social mediaAtradiusAtradiusAtradiusGroup