《国际能源署:2023年度煤炭市场报告-至2026年的分析与预测(英文版)(130页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《国际能源署:2023年度煤炭市场报告-至2026年的分析与预测(英文版)(130页).pdf(130页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Coal2023Analysis and forecast to 2026The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies
2、that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international front
3、iers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew Zea
4、landNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERN
5、ATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYCoal 2023 Abstract Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The global coal market has experienced a turbulent three years.Demand dropped sharply during the Covid pandemic,only to leap during the post-Covid rebound and following Russias invasion of Ukraine.In
6、2022,global coal demand reached its highest level ever.Today,coal remains the largest energy source for electricity generation,steelmaking and cement production maintaining a central role in the world economy.At the same time,coal is the largest source of man-made carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions,and cu
7、rbing consumption is essential to meeting international climate targets.A historic turning point could arrive soon.The International Energy Agencys latest projections see coal demand peaking within this decade under todays policy settings,primarily as a result of the structural decline in coal use i
8、n developed economies and a weaker economic outlook for China,which has also pledged to reach a peak in CO2 emissions before 2030.However,key questions remain,including when the peak in demand will occur,at what level,and how fast consumption will decline after that point.Since its first publication
9、 in 2011,the IEAs annual Coal Report has served as the global benchmark for the medium-term forecast of coal supply,demand and trade.Its analysis also covers costs,prices and mining projects at regional and country level by coal grade.Given coals impact on energy supply and CO2 emissions,Coal 2023 i
10、s indispensable reading for those following energy and climate issues.Coal 2023 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This International Energy Agency(IEA)publication has been prepared by the Gas,Coal a
11、nd Power Markets Division(GCP),headed by Dennis Hesseling,who provided useful suggestions and comments throughout the process.Keisuke Sadamori,Director of Energy Markets and Security,provided with essential guidance.Carlos Fernndez Alvarez has led and co-ordinated the analysis.Julian Keutz,Arne Lili
12、enkamp and Carlos Fernndez Alvarez are the authors of the report.Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions,including Yasmina Abdelilah,Heymi Bahar,Stephanie Bouckaert,Eren am,Louis Chambeau,Joel Couse,Laura Cozzi,Carole Etienne,Vctor Garca Tapia,Tim Gould,Ciarn Healy,Alexandra Hegarty,Pa
13、ul Hugues,Laura Mar Martnez,Gergely Molnr,Apostolos Petropoulos,Frederick Ritter and Hiroyasu Sakaguchi.Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report.Taylor Morrison and Nicola Dragui provided invaluable support during the process.Thanks go also to the IEA
14、China desk,particularly Rebecca McKimm,Yang Biqing and Wang Yujun for their research on China.The IEA Communication and Digital Office(CDO)provided production and launch support.Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen,acting Head of CDO,and his team:Astrid Dumond,Julia Horowitz,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin
15、 and Therese Walsh.Justin French-Brooks edited the report.Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne(EWI)for sharing their extensive coal expertise and modelling insights.CRU provided invaluable data and information for this report.Thanks to Glen Kurokawa fo
16、r his support and suggestions.Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board(CIAB)for their support.Special thanks to the international experts who have provided input during the process and/or reviewed the draft of the report.They include:Kevin Ball(Whiteheaven Coal),Mick Buffier(Glenco
17、re),Michael Caravaggio(EPRI),Rodrigo Echeverri(Noble Resources),Nikki Fisher(Thungela Resources),Justin Flood(Delta Electricity),Patricia Naulita Lumban Gaol(Adaro),Lukazs Mazanek(Polska Groupa Gornicza),Peter Morris(Minerals Council of Australia),Brian Ricketts Coal 2023 Acknowledgements,contributo
18、rs and credits Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.(Euracoal),Hans Wilhem Schiffer(RWE),Paul Simons(Yale University)and Akira Yabumoto(J-POWER).The individuals and organisations that contributed to this report are not responsible for any opinion or judgement it contains.Any error or
19、omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA.For questions and comments,please contact Carlos Fernndez Alvarez(Carlos.Fernandeziea.org).Coal 2023 Table of contents Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.7 Demand.11 Supply.41 Trade.60 Thermal coal.63
20、 Metallurgical coal.70 Prices and costs.76 Prices.76 Costs.89 Coal mining projects:Export.103 General annex.114 Coal 2023 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Global coal consumption reached an all-time high in 2022 Global coal demand reached a reco
21、rd high in 2022 amid the global energy crisis,rising by 4%year-on-year to 8.42 billion tonnes(Bt).The growth engine for coal demand,which increased in both power and non-power sectors,was once again Asia.In China,demand rose by 4.6%,or 200 million tonnes(Mt).In India,it increased by 9%,or 97 Mt;and
22、in Indonesia,where nickel smelters became a significant source of demand growth,it shot up by 32%,or 49 Mt.The United States saw coal demand fall by 8%,or 37 Mt,more than any other market,while a 4.3%increase in consumption in Europe was more muted than many had feared.Despite subdued hydropower and
23、 nuclear electricity generation in some European countries,a weak economy and mild winter in Europe restrained the impact of natural gas price spikes,which encouraged some switching to coal.and the world is heading towards a new record in 2023 In 2023 we expect coal demand to fall in almost all adva
24、nced economies.The biggest drops in consumption will occur in the European Union and the United States,where record annual declines of around 20%are expected.Other advanced economies such as Korea,Japan,Canada and Australia are set to see lower rates of decline.Nevertheless,the growth in China(aroun
25、d 5%)and India(over 8%),as well as in Indonesia,Viet Nam and the Philippines which together represent more than 70%of global coal demand will more than offset these decreases on a global level.In China and India,in particular,rising coal consumption is driven by robust growth in demand for electrici
26、ty and low hydropower output.Overall,we expect global coal demand to grow slightly(by 1.4%)both in power and non-power sectors in 2023 to around 8.54 Bt,a new record.Global coal demand is set to decline to 2026 but China will have the last word We forecast that Chinas coal consumption will fall in 2
27、024 and plateau through 2026,with hydropower output set to recover while electricity generation from solar PV and wind increases significantly.However,the pace of economic growth in China and its coal use in the coming years is subject to uncertainty.The countrys economy is undergoing major structur
28、al changes as it reaches the end of infrastructure-led,energy-intensive growth,but the speed at which it changes Coal 2023 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.gears and continues to expand clean energy capacity will have a significant influence on the outlook for co
29、al.The availability of hydropower is a key variable in the short term,since coal is used as a substitute when hydro underperforms in China.India,Indonesia and other emerging and developing economies are expected to rely on coal to power strong economic growth,despite commitments to accelerate the de
30、ployment of renewables and other low-emissions technologies.By contrast,due to their different economic and energy context,we do not see a major risk of coal use rising again among advanced economies.Coal power plants are being regularly shuttered in these economies,and industrial coal consumption i
31、s set to decline due to weak industrial output,improved efficiency,and increased switching to other fuels.Overall,we expect global coal demand to drop in 2024 and plateau through 2026,even in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies.As a resul
32、t,global coal consumption in 2026 is set to be 2.3%lower than in 2023 although China will have the last word.Coals shift to Asia is accelerating The dominance of China in coal markets is stronger than any other country for any other fuel.It consumes more than half of the worlds coal and produces hal
33、f of it,and it is the largest importer,accounting for close to one-third of the global coal trade.But India and ASEAN also exert a growing influence helping further shift the focus of the coal market towards Asia.In 2000,advanced economies accounted for almost half of global coal consumption(48%),wh
34、ile China and India together accounted for 35%.Coal consumption has declined in the European Union since the 1980s and in the United States since the 2000s,whereas it has grown strongly in China,India and ASEAN.As a result,in 2026,we expect China and India to account for more than 70%of global coal
35、consumption.By contrast,the European Union and United States are expected to each account for around 3%of global coal consumption.This increasing gap in reliance on coal between countries could present challenges for future international dialogue on the need for rapid decline in global coal use to r
36、each climate goals.Major coal producers are increasing their output Energy security has moved further up the political agenda after the market disruptions sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic and Russias invasion of Ukraine.For China and India,domestic coal production has long been the cornerstone of en
37、ergy security policy.In recent years,both countries have struggled to keep the lights on during periods of high electricity demand even before these shocks owing to coal shortages and high prices.As a result,both governments have intensified efforts to increase coal production since October 2021.Coa
38、l 2023 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Output from the three largest producers continue to reach new highs.In China,production in both Shanxi and Inner Mongolia surpassed 1 Bt in recent years.India is also projected to cross this threshold in 2024.And in Indones
39、ia,which has significantly boosted coal output in recent years amid elevated international prices and increasing regional demand,production is expected to reach 700 Mt in 2023 for the first time.Meanwhile,lignite production in Europe,while still significant,will fall in line with regional demand thr
40、ough 2026.Hard coal production in Poland,which has committed to shut down its coal mines by 2049,is set to continue its slow but inevitable decline.Production dropped in the United States,though the decline was not as steep as the collapse in demand,given higher exports and stock building.US product
41、ion is set to decline further through 2026 to below 400 Mt,which would be the lowest level in six decades.In Australia,production is set to decline through 2026,driven by both lower domestic demand and exports.Coal trade has expanded to an all-time high in 2023 but will decline afterwards The volume
42、 of coal trade has increased almost every year this century with very few exceptions.In 2015,Chinas measures to protect its domestic coal industry,coupled with a slowing economy that weighed on consumption,led to the first contraction in coal trade since the 1990s.In 2020,the economic downturn drive
43、n by the Covid-19 pandemic triggered the second drop.Now,after a recovery in 2021 and 2022,global coal trade volumes are set to rise again in 2023,reaching record levels for seaborne and total trade though declines are expected in the coming years.European imports collapsed in 2023 amid low demand a
44、nd plentiful stocks,while Japan,Korea and Chinese Taipei reduced their imports in line with lower coal demand.However,growth in China,which will record its highest imports ever in 2023,will more than offset these declines.Despite strong domestic production in China,exporters have benefitted from rob
45、ust demand and massive stock building due to energy security concerns.On the supply side,Indonesia once again proved to be the most flexible exporter and will export close to 500 Mt in 2023,a level that has never been reached by any country before.Australia will increase exports by 10 Mt as disrupti
46、ons induced by La Nia in the past few years recede.Russias efforts to replace its former European energy customers continue,with about half of exports in 2023 directed to China,up from less than one-quarter in 2021.Coal 2023 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.In 2
47、023,thermal coal prices are retreating from their 2021 and 2022 highs In October 2021,thermal coal prices reached unprecedented levels when supply was insufficient to meet a sudden rise in demand after Covid restrictions were eased in many countries.After Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022,high gas
48、 prices,supply-side constraints,and energy security concerns drove coal prices to all-time highs.Yet after summer 2022,lower gas prices and greater coal supply led to a pullback in coal prices.In 2023,prices have further receded globally,although they are still higher than pre-Covid levels.Regional
49、disparities are evident,with prices steadier in China owing to strong domestic supply,while weather disruptions jolted prices in Australia.Russian coal has traded at a variable discount,sometimes on the order of USD 200 per tonne,though more recently it has been just a few dollars per tonne cheaper.
50、Coal producers have seen significant cost inflation in the past few years,which has stemmed from increased royalties owed to governments in some parts of the world and surging costs for fuel,explosives,tyres and labour.Two years of unprecedented profits have left coal producers flush with cash Coal
51、prices during the past two years have been much higher than expected.Consumers have struggled to cope as energy bills have jumped.Some countries intervened to provide support through regulatory measures and subsidies,especially in the electricity sector.Meanwhile,producers have enjoyed strong margin
52、s even as their costs have risen,and generous royalties have made significant contributions to the public budgets of many producer countries.Coal mining companies have paid back debts,increased dividends and buybacks,and retained some cash.Diversified miners have often channelled coal profits toward
53、s other commodities as growing demand tied to the energy transition is expected to drive up their prices.However,Glencore,the largest thermal coal exporter,will also become a major producer of coking coal after it completes its acquisition of Elk Valley Resources,which was announced earlier this yea
54、r.Given the difficulty of receiving regulatory approvals and public pushback against new projects,pure coal players are generally opting to acquire existing mines rather than develop projects from scratch.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|11 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Demand Global coal demand
55、 is expected to peak in 2023 and decrease thereafter In 2022,coal demand reached a new record high of 8 415 Mt,increasing by 4%.The increase was mainly backed by growth in countries that rely heavily on coal,such as China and India.Furthermore,extraordinarily high gas prices and generally weaker nuc
56、lear power and hydropower production drove growth in demand for coal to generate power.Coal demand for power generation rose by 4%to 5 687 Mt.Coal use for non-power purposes rose by 3.7%to 2 728 Mt.Accounting for more than half of global coal demand,China is by far the worlds largest coal consumer.I
57、n 2022,the countrys overall coal demand rose by 4.6%to a total of 4 520 Mt,with coal taking a share of more than 60%in power generation.India,the worlds second-largest coal consumer comprising about 14%of global coal demand,recorded an increase of 9%,totalling 1 162 Mt.In 2023 global coal demand is
58、expected to have increased only marginally by 1.4%,albeit reaching a new all-time high of about 8 536 Mt.Coal demand growth is losing momentum due to lukewarm economic prospects paired with the weakening of the factors that pushed coal-fired power generation in 2022.Meanwhile,global coal demand is e
59、xpected to continue moving eastwards,with China,India,and ASEAN countries combined consuming three-quarters of global demand.At the start of the century,that share was around 35%,lower than the combined share of the European Union and the United States at that time.In absolute terms,coal demand in 2
60、023 is estimated to have increased most strongly in China(up 220 Mt,or 4.9%),followed by India(up 98 Mt,or 8%)and Indonesia(up 23 Mt,or 11%).The largest declines are expected in the European Union(down 107 Mt,or 23%)and the United States(down 95 Mt,or 21%),driven mainly by the electricity sector,but
61、 also by weak industrial activity.Data and forecasts for Russia,currently the fourth largest coal consumer,are difficult to estimate,given ongoing war against Ukraine.Likewise,Ukraines forecast is quite uncertain.For our forecast period until 2026 we expect to see a trend emerging of declining world
62、wide coal demand,starting in 2024.With growth in India and ASEAN offsetting declines in the European Union and the United States,China remains the decisive player for setting the trend of global coal demand.Higher renewable Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|12 I EA.CC BY 4.0.growth
63、 than overall electricity demand growth is likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory.This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023.Global coal consumption,2002-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Change in global coal consumption,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0
64、008 0009 0002002200520082002020232026MtChinaIndiaASEANUnited StatesEuropean UnionRest of worldForecast2202059810776508 4158 5368 3448 0008 1008 2008 3008 4008 5008 6002022-+2023-+2026MtChinaIndiaASEANUnited StatesEuropean UnionRest of worldForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and
65、forecast to 2026 Page|13 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Coal in power generation is set to decline through to 2026 In 2022,global electricity production grew by about 2.3%to a total of 29 074 TWh.Coal-fired power generation made up about 36%of the total,remaining the largest source.Driven by growing electricity dem
66、and in Asia,high gas prices pushing up coal use for power generation in some parts of the world,and a weak performance overall from nuclear(down 141 TWh),coal-fired power generation grew by about 1.4%(up 141 TWh)resulting in an increase in coal demand from the power sector of about 4%(up 220 Mt).The
67、 difference in growth rates is accounted for by a decrease in the calorific value of coal used for power generation,mainly in China.Lower gas prices in 2023,falling close to pre-crisis levels,have led to a partial reverse of the gas-to-coal switch in the European Union.In contrast,the power mix in C
68、hina and India is less exposed to global gas price developments,and therefore the development of renewables and growth in electricity demand are the main determinants of coal-fired generation.Global power demand growth is expected to have slowed to 2%in 2023,curbed,among other factors,by weak econom
69、ic growth in mature economies in the aftermath of the energy crisis.We anticipate coal-fired power generation to have grown by 1.5%(up 158 TWh),increasing coal use in the power sector by 1.4%(up 81 Mt).We expect renewable additions to have accounted for the largest share of electricity demand growth
70、 in 2023,gaining 5%(or 443 TWh).Change in global power demand and generation by source,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.-1 00001 0002 0003 0004 000Demand-+Demand-+-2026TWhPower demandCoalGasOthersRenewables and nuclearForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|14 I EA.CC BY 4.0.
71、For our forecast period 2024-2026,this development is about to become even more pronounced,with renewables growth exceeding growth in electricity demand initiating a downturn in coal-fired power generation.After recent years of low rainfall,we assume that the change in weather pattern from La Nia to
72、 El Nio will improve hydro availability in China and India.In addition,a steep upward trend in low-cost solar PV deployment supports the rise in renewable generation.Further to that,nuclear generation is set to see moderate increases,especially in China,India and the European Union.Against this back
73、ground,coal-fired generation is likely to be pushed into a downward trajectory from 2024.In the three-year period,we expect a decrease of 5%,falling to 10 067 TWh in 2026.By then,coals share of the global electricity mix would have dropped to just over 30%,the lowest share in IEA records.Non-power t
74、hermal coal and lignite demand grows slightly through to 2026 Besides power generation,thermal coal and lignite find applications in a range of other activities,including but not limited to the manufacture of cement and providing heat for industrial and residential purposes.In 2022,overall non-power
75、 thermal coal and lignite consumption rose by 7%to 1 642 Mt.On this basis,non-power uses accounted for 22%of overall thermal coal and lignite consumption in that year.The major share of this growth in 2022 is accounted for by Chinese consumption rising to 973 Mt,where the coal conversion sector to r
76、eplace costly oil and gas products played a significant role.An even stronger increase in relative terms was observed in ASEAN countries,where consumption increased by 51%from 65 Mt to 98 Mt.This exceptional increase was predominantly fuelled by Indonesian growth(up 31 Mt).Indonesia is strategically
77、 ramping up its nickel production,to serve globally rising demands for this critical mineral used in the manufacture of batteries.As production processes in Indonesia often use coal as a direct(reductant)or indirect(captive power generation)constituent,nickel production has become an important drive
78、r of coal demand.Indeed,this has implications for the carbon footprint of that nickel.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|15 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Change in thermal coal and lignite consumption for non-power purposes by region,2021-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.We expect aggregated non-power use of th
79、ermal coal and lignite to have slightly increased in 2023,as gains in ASEAN,India and China are likely to overcompensate for declines in the European Union and other Asian countries.In China,ongoing efforts to decrease coal consumption for residential heating and small industry,and the stagnation of
80、 infrastructure-related investment dampening cement demand,weigh on the outlook for non-power coal consumption.Conversely,the coal conversion sector(coal-to-liquids,coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemicals;see further detail in the section below)exhibits huge potential for coal use and finds itself on the
81、rise amid Chinas endeavour to reduce energy import dependency.Overall,we expect a slight decline in Chinas thermal non-power coal demand through to 2026.Indias non-power thermal coal and lignite consumption is likely to continue its upward trajectory,as industrial activity is expected to increase by
82、 almost 6%annually in the next three years.Accordingly,we estimate consumption to rise by 44 Mt by 2026.Together with ASEAN(up 20 Mt),India is expected to serve as the engine behind thermal non-power coal consumption in the next three years.Summarising these developments,we forecast global thermal c
83、oal and lignite consumption for non-power use to increase by 58 Mt,or 1.1%annually,until 2026.-40-200 20 40 60 80 100 1-20232023-2026MtRest of worldEuropean UnionOther AsiaASEANIndiaChinaForecastWorldCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|16 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Met coal demand
84、 plateaus,but uncertainty in China increases Metallurgical(met)coal,which includes coking coal(hard,medium,and semi-soft)and coal for pulverised coal injection(PCI)is a primary ingredient in steelmaking.Coke,which is generated from the heating of coking coal in a coke oven without oxygen,is also emp
85、loyed in the manufacture of carbides,ferroalloys and other chemical compounds.Accordingly,our projections for met coal demand are primarily based on the steel production forecasts of organisations such as the World Steel Association,as well as GDP growth and industrial production.Preliminary data fo
86、r 2022 show a slight decline in global met coal consumption,down by 2 Mt to 1 086 Mt.Amid that years energy market rollercoaster,Russia(down 3 Mt,or 4.1%),Korea(down 2 Mt,or 6%),and the rest of the world(down 10 Mt,or 12%)accounted for the greatest reductions.In light of a weak economic performance
87、and high energy prices in 2022,Chinese met coal demand rose by only 2%to 718 Mt.Our estimate for 2023 shows an overall surge in met coal consumption of 1.4%to 1 101 Mt.This comes hand in hand with energy prices declining almost to pre-crisis levels and higher steel production in some countries.The i
88、ncrease is fuelled by growth in China and India,which more than offset declines in the European Union and other world regions.Met coal consumption and annual change by region,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.0 200 400 600 8001 0001 200202120222023MtChinaIndiaRussiaEuropean UnionJapanKoreaRest of world-40-200
89、 20 -2023MtCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|17 I EA.CC BY 4.0.For the next three years,we do not expect significant changes in met coal consumption as energy markets and economic outlook appear to be on a moderate trend.Furthermore,substitutes for met coal,such as h
90、ydrogen,do not appear to be market-ready in the forecast period,and thus producers are unlikely to offset met coal demand amid economic growth.As a result,we forecast overall met coal consumption to slightly increase by 17 Mt to 1 118 Mt over the course of the next three years,with India contributin
91、g the most to the uplift.We do not expect Chinese met coal consumption to align with overall industrial activity,as infrastructure-related investments consuming steel are likely to decline in the coming years.Forecast change in met coal consumption by region,2023-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.China is reaching
92、 peak coal With total consumption of 4 520 Mt in 2022,China is by far the worlds largest coal consumer,accounting for 54%of global coal consumption.The major share(84%)of Chinas coal consumption was thermal coal,totalling 3 801 Mt,which was predominantly used for power generation.The remaining volum
93、es were 718 Mt of met coal.After a weak economic performance in 2022,when severe energy shortages and strict lockdowns imposed by a zero-Covid policy weighed on energy consumption,China has been gaining momentum again.GDP is estimated to have increased by 5.2%in 2023,up 2.2 percentage points from th
94、e previous years growth.However,we expect met coal consumption to have risen by a slower rate,as steel production in the first three quarters of 2023 only rose by 1.7%year-on-year.This 1 1011 1181 0801 1001 1201 1401 MtChinaIndiaRussiaEuropean UnionJapan and KoreaRest of worldCoal 2023 De
95、mand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|18 I EA.CC BY es as new construction activity,historically driving demand for steel and cement,has entered a subdued period as the housing market appears to be oversupplied.For 2023,we estimate an increase in met coal consumption of 2.7%to 738 Mt.The main driv
96、er behind Chinas coal consumption is the power sector.We expect coal-fired power generation to have increased by almost 7%in 2023.Given that non-power consumption of thermal coal has remained almost flat,we estimate growth in total thermal coal consumption of 5%in 2023,reaching 4 002 Mt.Against this
97、 background,China is about to reach a new all-time high of 4 740 Mt in 2023.An important remark is that the quality of coal produced in China deteriorated in 2022 and 2023 following a production push(see“Supply Chapter).As a result,the average calorific value of coal used has declined.Therefore,the
98、growth of coal consumption in energy terms more relevant for the assessment of CO2 emissions is lower than in mass terms,which is the measure used in this report.Year-on-year percentage change in three economic indicators in China,January-October 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on Natio
99、nal Bureau of Statistics of China(2023),Statistical Database.Our forecast for Chinas coal consumption in the next three years follows developments in the power sector and projections for industrial production and overall economic growth.The backbone of our estimate is the rise in renewable generatio
100、n exceeding growth in electricity demand,mainly driven by the acceleration in solar PV deployment and rebounding precipitation in 2024,pushing up hydro generation.This causes thermal coal consumption for power generation-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Jan-FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctThermal power generat
101、ionSteel productionCement productionCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|19 I EA.CC BY 4.0.to decline significantly,down by 6%or 175 Mt by 2026.At the same time,met coal consumption and non-power thermal coal consumption are set to undergo moderate declines between 2024 and 2026.As a
102、result,we expect Chinese coal consumption to decrease by 4.3%or 205 Mt by 2026 compared to 2023.For the first time,the structural shift in power generation towards renewables implies not only a peak in Chinese coal demand in 2023 but also a peak in world coal consumption in 2023,as Chinas developmen
103、t dictates the global trend on the basis that other world regions balance each other out.Annual change in coal consumption by grade and use in China,2023-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.A strong uptick in renewables initiates the decline in Chinas coal power generation With an installed capacity of approximately
104、 1.1 TW and generation of 5 489 TWh in 2022,coal continued to hold its position as the predominant energy source for electricity generation in China.Furthermore,electricity generation is responsible for about 74%of Chinas thermal coal demand and about 63%of its total coal demand.Historically,both ge
105、neration and capacity have generally grown in line with electricity demand,providing vital support for Chinas economic ascent.However,this interrelation appears to be diminishing in the face of the rapid growth of renewable power generation.Growth in Chinas coal-fired power generation in 2023 is exp
106、ected to have accelerated from that seen in 2022,when weak economic activity reined in coal-fired power generation.We estimate electricity demand to have surged by 6%in 2023,surpassing 9 000 TWh for the first time.This increased electricity demand-150-100-500 50 100 150 200 2502023202420252026MtMet
107、coalThermal coal(non-power)Thermal coal(power)ForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|20 I EA.CC BY 4.0.is rooted not only in robust economic activity but also in heatwaves in several provinces,with Beijing experiencing one of its hottest summers on record.Severe droughts in the
108、first six months of the year were a major driver,weighing on hydropower availability and exacerbating the uptick in coal-fired generation and coal consumption accordingly.Against this background,we estimate thermal coal consumption for power generation to have surged by 190 Mt to 3 018 Mt in 2023.In
109、 light of the power shortages in recent years,caused by coal shortage,a lack of available generation capacity and inefficient dispatch incentives,China has been seeking to ensure resource adequacy by expanding its coal-fired power plant fleet.In 2022,Chinese authorities approved more than 100 GW of
110、coal-fired power capacity.In the first half of 2023,China added 17 GW of coal capacity,began construction of 37 GW,and approved 52 GW of new projects.This enlarges the project pipeline up to 243 GW,with another 149 GW announced but not formally approved.The surge in renewables is likely to bear down
111、 on the average utilisation of coal-fired power plants,as additional coal capacity is mainly needed to meet increasing peak demands.Actually,on 10 November 2023,the Chinese government announced capacity payments for coal power plants to ensure investment is recovered irrespective of their load facto
112、r.1 However,there is a risk that additional coal capacity may cause lock-in effects,weighing on future efforts to cut emissions.For the period between 2024 and 2026 we expect a change in Chinas power generation,laying the foundation for coal consumption to decline from 2024 onwards.The key to this d
113、evelopment is a steep upward trajectory in renewable generation,which grows faster than electricity demand.We assume that hydro availability rebounds after a two-year low,and that the accelerating growth in wind and solar capacity bears fruit.Together with steady increases in nuclear generation,this
114、 causes coal-fired generation to start its downward trend after 2023.Nonetheless,this structural trend may see temporary deviations,driven by events such as cold snaps,heatwaves,rainfall,and volatility in wind speed and solar irradiance as well as the development of electricity demand.All these fact
115、ors influence the utilisation of coal plants,which largely serve as the default electricity supplier.In summary,we estimate coal consumption for power generation to decline by 175 Mt during 2024-2026,down to 2 843 Mt.1 The first announcement indicates USD 45/kW per year as the benchmark for fixed co
116、sts of coal plants,while the mechanism will cover a percentage of that cost(30%in 2024-2025 and 50%in 2026).Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|21 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Forecast change in electricity demand and generation in China,2023-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.To demonstrate the effect of uncerta
117、inty in renewable generation on coal consumption in China,we can show the variation in the historical load factor of renewables(left graph below)and translate it into hypothetical coal consumption(right graph below).Notably,all renewable technologies hydro,solar PV and wind exhibit a certain variabi
118、lity in annual historical load factors.The observation of renewable behaviour over the last two to three decades shows that,in China,hydro displays a spread of 10 percentage points between the minimum and maximum load factor,while wind and solar PV exhibit spreads of 8 and 5 percentage points,respec
119、tively.A lower-than-average load factor of renewables needs to be replaced by other technologies,which in the case of China is mostly coal.Given the considerable renewable capacity in China,these fluctuations have a non-negligible impact on coal consumption.In our subsequent analysis,we assume that
120、coal-fired power plants balance different hypothetical load factors,given the renewable capacity in 2023.The findings reveal that,assuming the weakest performance of hydro,wind,and solar observed over the last two to three decades,the additional coal consumption for power generation would amount to
121、almost 200 Mt.Conversely,the maximum load factor for renewables would exceed 240 Mt of avoided coal use.Assuming a load factor of renewables in the 25th or 75th percentile would approximately halve the changes in coal consumption compared to the extreme cases.Even though the simultaneous occurrence
122、of extreme load factors remains improbable,the analysis underscores the magnitude of the uncertainty that weather effects have-500 0 5001 0001 5002 000Demand+-TWhPower demandRenewables,nuclear and othersCoal and coal productsCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|22 I EA.CC BY 4.0.on co
123、al consumption.And this is only the analysis of the supply side of electricity;the impact of weather on electricity demand is a further relevant determinant for coal consumption.Load factor of renewables and hypothetical effect on coal consumption in China IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes(left):Hydro load factor
124、 based on 1990-2023 data;PV and wind load factors based on 2000-2023 data.The top and bottom edges of the boxes represent the 75th and 25th percentiles,respectively.The lines inside the boxes represent the medians.Notes(right):Hypothetical coal use represents volumes that would be consumed,if differ
125、ent levels of combined load factors of renewables apply,i.e.,25%corresponds to assuming all renewables are in the 25th percentile load factor.We assume coal consumption of 0.45 Mt per TWh of electricity.Chinas thermal non-power demand saw a remarkable high in 2022,but is set to decline through to 20
126、26 Chinas thermal coal consumption for non-power uses rose by 7%to 973 Mt in 2022,accounting for 22%of Chinas total coal consumption.This amount is almost equivalent to the combined coal consumption of Europe and North America.Despite the efforts made during the past decade to switch from coal to ot
127、her mostly gas and electricity in order to reduce air pollution from small,inefficient and outdated coal boilers,the use of coal in sectors other than power and steel in China is still considerable.Unlike in most developed countries,coal in China is still used in a variety of industries from food to
128、 textiles and paper to numerous other sectors.Due to the switch away from coal,we expect coal use in small industry and in residential heating to continue its decline in the coming years.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%HydroPVWindLoad factor-300-200-1000 100 200 300Mt25%Min75%MaxCoal 2023 Demand Analysi
129、s and forecast to 2026 Page|23 I EA.CC BY 4.0.More difficult is the switch in cement making,which would require the availability of low-cost alternative fuels,given the high proportion of total production costs that fuel accounts for.Cement,which utilises over 200 Mt of coal per year,is the single l
130、argest consumer of thermal coal among industries.Cement production in China appears to have peaked in 2020,and after the major decline in 2022(over 10%),we expect the decline to have continued in 2023,despite growth observed in the first half of 2023.The real estate sector in China is contracting,an
131、d this is set to weigh on cement production and so too on coal demand.This applies not only to 2023 but also to the forecast period,as this trend appears to be structural in nature and not resolvable in the short term.A significant driver of the growth in thermal non-power applications in 2022 was t
132、he coal conversion sector,as described in the section below.Summarising these developments,we estimate thermal non-power coal consumption to have slightly increased in 2023 to 984 Mt.For the trajectory until 2026,we expect declines in industrial and heating applications to more than offset growth in
133、 the conversion sector,leading to a reduction of 0.8%down to 976 Mt.Strong growth seen in Chinas coal conversion sector Coal conversion refers to the processes that use coal as a feedstock to obtain another commodity as the output(usually via coal gasification).Depending on the final product,it is t
134、ypically classified as coal-to-liquids,coal-to-gas(SNG or synthetic natural gas)or coal-to-chemicals,with methanol playing an important role as a final product or as an intermediate product to produce olefins and other chemicals.For over a decade,coal conversion in China has been seen as a strategy
135、to reduce foreign dependence,amid increasing oil and gas imports,and to monetise domestic coal assets particularly those considered stranded due to quality or location while promoting local jobs.On the flip side,these processes are generally energy inefficient,water-and CO2-intensive,and have very v
136、olatile economic profitability due to its dependence on oil and gas prices.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|24 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Key process routes of the coal conversion sector in China IEA.CC BY 4.0.Coal-to-liquids refers to the production of liquid fuels such as diesel or gasoline
137、 from coal.Coal is either liquified directly in a reactor by hydrogenation or converted into synthesis gas,and,using the Fisher-Tropsch process,then converted to liquid fuels through indirect liquefaction.The biggest among Chinas projects is the 4 Mtpa Shenhua indirect liquefaction plant,which came
138、online in 2017.The facility is operated by the Ningxia Coal Industry Group and first reached full capacity in late 2021.In 2021 for China as a whole,38 Mt of coal was used to produce around 10 Mt of oil products,according to IEA statistics.Liquids produced from coal currently account for 1%of oil co
139、nsumption in China.Given the projects under construction,we assume annual growth of over 8%for coal-to-liquids between 2022 and 2026.The predominant end products in the coal-to-gas route are synthetic natural gas(SNG)and fertiliser.Ammonia,which is mainly used to produce fertilisers,is produced in C
140、hina mostly using synthesis gas from coal gasification,unlike any other country.While the consumption of fertilisers has remained somewhat steady,the need to reduce air pollution in residential areas has spurred the consumption of natural gas and indirectly,the production of SNG.The first two SNG pr
141、ojects commenced in 2013,with a temporary suspension of approvals in 2015 due to environmental issues.In 2016,three new projects were approved.Originally,the government set a target to produce 55 bcm of SNG by 2020,but as of 2021,SNG accounted for around 10 bcm of domestic gas production.Against thi
142、s background,we assume coal consumption for coal-to-gas to grow by 5%annually between 2022 and 2026.However,this figure is subject to uncertainty,as an estimated 300 bcm of projects are currently at different stages of development,indicating a potential surge in SNG production.In Xinjiang alone,six
143、projects accounting for 26 bcm of SNG capacity per year have been CoalGasificationDirect coal liquefactionIndirect coal liquefactionEnd useIntermediateCoal-to-gasCoal-to-chemicalsCoal-to-liquidsSynthesis gasMethanolEthylene glycolAmmoniaFertiliserSynthetic natural gasPolyesterOlefins,othersDiesel,ga
144、solineCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|25 I EA.CC BY 4.0.announced for completion in the next four years.This would involve consumption of around 60-65 Mt.In Inner Mongolia,Xinmengs 8 bcm per year project currently under construction could consume almost 20 Mtpa of coal once worki
145、ng at full capacity.The most dynamic sector among coal conversion is coal-to-chemicals,also known as CTX.It involves the gasification of coal to synthesis gas,which is then processed mostly into methanol or ethylene glycol.Methanol is often converted to olefins,the basis for manufacturing plastics,w
146、hereas ethylene glycol is the basis for polyester and other materials.Over the past decade the Chinese government has supported CTX processes with subsidies,increasing the share of coal as a source in petrochemicals from 3%in 2010 to 16%in 2018.By the end of 2020,there were operational projects in C
147、hina with production capacity totalling 16 Mtpa of coal-to-olefins and 4.9 Mtpa of coal-to-ethylene glycol,and since then the sector has continued its growth.We expect growth to continue in the years ahead,as numerous coal-to-olefins projects have been announced in Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,and Gansu,am
148、ong other regions.For example,Sinopec,which already owns five CTX facilities in Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Anhui,Guizhou,and Xinjiang,has announced a project to produce a further 0.8 Mt of olefins via CTX in Inner Mongolia from 2024.Chinese met coal consumption contracts amid a real estate crisis Chinas
149、 met coal consumption stood at 718 Mt in 2022,accounting for about two-thirds of worldwide met coal consumption and 16%of the countrys overall coal consumption.The vast majority(87%)of met coal consumption in China is coking coal,which is mostly converted to coke,a reductant in the blast furnace pro
150、cess for pig iron production and other industrial processes.Pig iron,in turn,is the main ingredient to steelmaking.The balance of met coal(13%)is PCI(pulverised coal injection)coal,which is injected in the blast furnace to reduce coke consumption.2 2022 marks the second year in a row of pig iron pro
151、duction remaining stagnant,thereby weighing on the growth in met coal consumption.New home construction,a key driver for Chinese steel demand,fell by about 40%in 2022,down to its lowest level since 2009.As with cement demand,the crisis in the real estate sector is likely to continue weighing on met
152、coal demand.Nonetheless,we estimate met coal demand in 2022 to have moderately grown,as the substitution of high-quality Australian with lower-quality coking coal probably increased the specific consumption of coke in the blast furnaces.2 This is an estimate,as Chinese statistics do not report PCI a
153、s a separate category.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|26 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Change in met coal consumption in China,2021-2026,and share of met coal grades,2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.For the first half of 2023,the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics reports growth in pig iron production of
154、2.7%and growth in coke production of 1.8%compared to the first half of 2022,implying slight gains in met coal consumption.For the full year of 2023,we estimate met coal consumption to have gained 2.7%,to a total of 738 Mt.In our forecast period,we expect steel demand to remain muted as a reflection
155、of the ongoing real estate crisis,affecting pig iron production,and thus met coal demand.Moreover,about 20 provinces have released plans to increase scrap use in crude steel production,which would reduce the production of pig iron.And some Chinese firms plan to install coke production units in Indon
156、esia,which would alter coking coal demand in China.Against this background,our estimate is for met coal consumption to decrease by 1%annually until 2026,down to 716 Mt.Coal demand growth in India accelerated in 2022 and 2023 Coal consumption in India surged by 9%to a total of 1 162 Mt in 2022,markin
157、g another year of remarkable growth after 2021s 14%rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic.Indias coal demand is mainly determined by its use in power generation,accounting for 74%of overall consumption.The remainder comprises 231 Mt of thermal coal and lignite for non-power use,of which cement and direc
158、t iron reduction are the main consumers,and 72 Mt of met coal,primarily used in steel production via the blast furnace route.Despite a global contraction in-25-20-15-10-50 5 10 15 20 -20232023-2026MtForecast87%13%Met coal 2022(718 Mtpa)Coking coalPCICoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forec
159、ast to 2026 Page|27 I EA.CC BY 4.0.economic growth and energy prices reaching all-time highs,Indias economy continued its upward trend with GDP growth of 7%in the financial year(FY)2022.Among other factors,this economic development was supported by strong domestic coal production(up 12%)and the coun
160、trys moderate exposure to global market prices,as Indias coal import share stood at less than 20%in 2022.For 2023,we expect Indias economy to have grown again,albeit,at a slower pace compared to 2022,with industrial activity seeing growth of 5%and power generation almost 9%higher.Coal-fired power ge
161、neration meets most of the growth in power demand,as renewables,despite being on the rise,cannot meet demand growth unlike in China.For 2023,we expect coal consumption for power generation to have increased by 9%to 937 Mt.Aligned with the economic outlook,industrial output has also been rising stron
162、gly in 2023,pushing up demand for thermal coal and lignite in non-power applications,like cement and direct iron reduction.Accordingly,we estimate non-power thermal coal and lignite consumption to have risen by 12 Mt in 2023,to 243 Mt.Met coal has the smallest share of Indian coal consumption,with a
163、n expected total of 81 Mt in 2023.Like other coal grades,met coal consumption is growing as steel production surged through 2023,indicated in our graph by year-on-year changes in direct iron reduction(thermal coal)and blast furnace iron production(met coal).Year-on-year percentage change for various
164、 economic indicators in India,January-September 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on McCloskey(2023).McCloskey Coal,Metals and Mining Service.-10%0%10%20%30%Power generationCement productionDirect reduced iron productionBlast furnace iron productionCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast t
165、o 2026 Page|28 I EA.CC BY 4.0.India becomes the main engine of coal demand growth India becomes the driving force behind the upward pressure on global coal demand through to 2026,even if the global trend is decided in China.For the forecast period until 2026,we estimate Indian coal demand to rise by
166、 3.5%annually to 1 397 Mt,with growth in every coal grade.India has a target for renewables to achieve a 50%share of its power generation mix by 2030,thereby reducing the power sectors dependency on coal.As in China,solar PV is set to gain momentum and surge in the period to 2026,with capacity likel
167、y to triple by 2026 compared to 2021.Nonetheless,additional coal-fired generation will still be required to meet the growth in demand and ensure security of supply.Against this background,Indias latest National Electricity Plan foresees between 19 GW and 27 GW of additional coal capacity up to 2027,
168、depending on the scenario,despite about twice the capacity already being in the project pipeline.For the next three years,our model forecasts annual growth in coal consumption for power generation of 2.4%,whereas renewable generation is forecast to grow by 12%annually.Indias new policy on biomass co
169、-firing,starting in April 2024,sets an obligatory blending rate of 5%for coal plants,increasing to 7%subsequently.However,its effect on coal consumption is uncertain,as the biomass supply chain is in its infancy.As a result,we estimate a moderate increase in coal for power generation of 69 Mt to 202
170、6,the total reaching 1 006 Mt.Coal for non-power purposes is expected to surge significantly,with industrial production set to increase annually by 6%between 2024 and 2026.Given the focus on infrastructure,we expect a strong increase in cement production,being one of the main drivers of growth in no
171、n-power thermal coal and lignite demand.For example,the Adani Group,the largest industrial conglomerate in India,is aiming to double its production capacity by 2028 up to around 140 Mtpa.The market leader UltraTech is currently running a capacity of about 132 Mtpa and is seeking to reach 160 Mtpa so
172、on.Together with consistently increasing steel demand driving consumption of steam coal(direct iron reduction)and met coal(blast furnace route),we estimate non-power coal consumption of 391 Mt in 2026,growing 21%over the three-year period.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|29 I EA.C
173、C BY 4.0.Annual change in coal consumption by coal grade in India,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Annual change in power generation by source in India,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The long-standing decline of US coal continues through to 2026 Coal demand in the United States is generally determined by power gene
174、ration,accounting for more than 93%of US coal demand.Coal-fired power generation had been on a downward trajectory for almost a decade until its short uptick in 0 20 40 60 80 100 202420252026MtMet coalThermal coal and lignite(non-power)Thermal coal and lignite(power)Forecast-40-200 20 40
175、60 80 100 120 140 202420252026TWhCoal and coal productsNuclear,gas,oil and otherRenewablesForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|30 I EA.CC BY 4.0.2021,which was rooted in the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic amid high gas prices.After this brief revival,coal-fired
176、 power generation continued its decline in 2022,falling by almost 8%to 915 TWh.Reduced coal-fired generation was compensated by more renewable generation and an increasing share of gas-fired generation despite higher gas prices in 2022.Following current announcements,US coal-fired generation capacit
177、y is set to decrease by about 13%by 2026 compared with 2022.Based on the Energy Information Administration(EIA)we expect planned retirements to total more than 10 GW in 2023 and an acceleration in renewable capacity to support the downward trend in coal-fired power generation.Thus,we estimate therma
178、l coal and lignite demand of 345 Mt in 2023.Moreover,the US Inflation Reduction Act is likely to boost investment in renewables,accelerating this trend.However,the use of carbon capture and storage(CCS)could support coal-fired generation in the medium term,and the Biden administration significantly
179、increased existing tax credits for carbon dioxide stored underground,incentivising CCS.But,as utilities appear to struggle with the costs and technological complexity of CCS,and with the development of CCS projects taking several years to complete,we do not assume any noticeable effects on coal dema
180、nd before 2026.Overall,we forecast coals share in the electricity mix to fall by 8 percentage points,down to 12%in 2026 compared with 2022.Combined with almost steady demand for met coal in the next three years(at around 14 Mt),this would result in a coal consumption of 276 Mt in the United States i
181、n 2026,much lower than any consumption in the United States in IEA statistics since 1960.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|31 I EA.CC BY 4.0.US coal-fired capacity and generation,2018-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Capacity values for 2023 to 2026 are based on announced retirements.2018
182、aggregated capacity is based on operational capacity in 2022 and retirements and commissions between 2018 and 2022.Retirements after 2022 are planned retirements.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),Electric Power Monthly and EIA(2023),Coal Data.And IEA estimates.After a short-lived uptick,the EU
183、 coal demand phase-down continues Russias invasion of Ukraine significantly disrupted the European Unions coal and gas markets,resulting in unprecedented price levels.Amid an already tight gas market in early 2022,the subsequent shutdowns of Russian gas supplies fuelled price increases even further.
184、Moreover,several policies were enacted to guarantee security of supply over the winter 2022/23,including the obligation to fill gas storage facilities.Among other factors,this led to gas prices skyrocketing in summer 2022.The crisis also had ramifications for the coal market,albeit without reaching
185、the price levels witnessed in the natural gas sector.Due to the lower marginal costs associated with coal-fired generation,there was a noticeable uptick in coal demand for power generation throughout 2022 compared with prior expectations.The surge in coal-fired generation was propelled by constraine
186、d availability of French nuclear units and below-average performance of Scandinavian hydropower.Some European countries developed policies to lift coal-fired plant utilisation,extend the lifetime of existing units,or even restart closed coal-fired power plants to alleviate power markets.In light of
187、high energy prices in 2022,industrial activity slowed,thus causing modest reductions in industrial coal demand.9.59.46.115.110.41.811.63.52461781 272542 0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4000 40 80 120 160 200 240 28020022420252026TWhGWRetirement(left axis)Generation(right axis)Fore
188、castCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|32 I EA.CC BY 4.0.However,with mild weather in the 2022/23 winter and successful policies such as targeted reductions in energy consumption,price levels eventually came down in both coal and gas markets.The return to price levels similar to tho
189、se occurring at the end of 2021 led to gas-fired units becoming cost-competitive again.Spring 2023 even saw a period when old and inefficient gas-fired units had lower marginal costs than efficient coal-fired units.Together with the return of nuclear units that had been under maintenance for months,
190、and increasing renewable generation over the course of 2023,coal-fired generation and thus coal demand plunged.Moreover,electricity demand is estimated to have fallen again in 2023,by more than 4%,leading to the lowest electricity demand seen in the European Union for two decades.Reflecting an energ
191、y market that has eased compared with 2022,coal phase-out plans are still on the agenda,causing significant reductions in coal capacity in the next three years.Germany alone is set to reduce lignite-fired plants by 3.7 GW and hard coal capacity by 8 GW between 2023 and 2025,which also includes plant
192、s that temporarily returned from grid reserve to the market during the energy crisis.Accelerating deployment of renewables,especially solar PV,will exacerbate the decline in coal-fired generation.This comes despite elevated gas price levels throughout the coming years,which indicates competitive gen
193、eration between coal-and gas-fired units assuming strong prices for EU Allowances(EUAs,or CO2 trading units).As a result,our models indicate a decrease in EU coal demand from the power sector of 71 Mt between 2024 and 2026,with demand totalling 192 Mt in 2026,and Poland reducing its coal dependency
194、at a slower pace than the other member states using coal for power generation.This corresponds to a significant decline of 27%for the three-year period to 2026.However,the outlook is closely linked to the development of gas prices,which may in turn affect the estimates for coal demand.Driven by powe
195、r market developments and in part by moderate economic growth,aggregate coal consumption in the European Union is expected to decline from 354 Mt in 2023 to 278 Mt in 2026.In June 2023,the Republic of Trkiye overtook Germany and Poland in coal-fired power generation for the first time.The increase i
196、n coal-fired generation comes despite an overall decrease in coal consumption(down 0.7%),due to a higher utilisation of imported hard coal and less generation from lower-CV domestic lignite.The Turkish government has not announced proposals to stop using coal yet and plans to enable new coal mining
197、activity to fuel power generation despite the pressure of environmental movements.By 2026,our model forecasts decline in coal demand to 109 Mt,as renewables replace significant shares of coal-fired generation.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|33 I EA.CC BY 4.0.EU marginal coal-and
198、gas-fired power generation costs,2021-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:EUA=European Union Allowance.CCGT=combined-cycle gas turbine.CCGT net efficiency=49-58%.Coal net efficiency=35-46%.Lignite net efficiency=39%.Sources:IEA analysis based on Argus Media group.All rights reserved.And IEA estimates.Coal dema
199、nd growth in ASEAN is driven by Indonesia ASEAN coal consumption totalled 413 Mt in 2022,up by 13%compared to the previous year.Coal consumption across ASEAN is determined by power generation,accounting for 71%of consumption in 2022.Nearly half of ASEAN consumption was in Indonesia(49%),followed by
200、Viet Nam(20%),Malaysia(9%)and the Philippines(9%).For 2023,we expect ASEAN consumption to have continued its increase to reach 444 Mt,mainly driven by a surge in Indonesian demand.Given the strong economic outlook for the region and the number of coal-fired power plants under construction,we forecas
201、t demand of 528 Mt in 2026,growing by 6%annually.Despite Indonesia aims to transition to clean energy and reduce coal usage,underlined by the USD 20 billion package in the Just Energy Transition Package(JETP)3,it is about to construct multiple new coal-fired power facilities tailored for industrial
202、purposes.These captive coal plants,whose primary objective is to feed nickel,cobalt and aluminium smelters,account for 13 GW of the total 18 GW in 3 Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)Indonesia is an initiative launched on 16 November 2022 in Bali by the Government of Indonesia(GoI)and the Inte
203、rnational Partners Group(IPG).The IPG will provide financial support to Indonesia to get a just energy transition.05003003504004505000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26EUR/tEUR/MWhCoal(left axis)CCGT(left axis)German lignite(left axis)EUA(right axi
204、s)ForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|34 I EA.CC BY 4.0.the pipeline.This expansion reflects Indonesias strategy to transform the country into a prominent manufacturing hub for electric vehicles and batteries,in which nickel plays a key role.Nickel,the fifth-most common eleme
205、nt on earth,is considered a critical mineral.It is used in a wide range of applications due to its special chemical characteristics,including its high melting point and its resistance to corrosion.About 70%of primary nickel production is used in steel production,followed by battery production with a
206、 share of about 11%,which is set to increase in the coming years with surging demand for batteries.According to its purity,nickel can be categorised into Class 1(with a nickel content higher than 99.8%),which is used in battery manufacturing,and Class 2(with a nickel content lower than 99.8%),which
207、is predominantly used as an alloying metal in steel production.Indonesia is the worlds largest nickel miner,mining around half of the global total,and has become a major producer of Class 2 nickel;however,it is also extending its Class 1 capacity with growing demand from global battery manufacturers
208、.In general,two main nickel production processes are applied in Indonesia:the rotary kiln-electric furnace(RKEF)and the high-pressure acid leach(HPAL)process.In the more energy intensive RKEF process,crushed nickel ore is first processed with a reductant in a rotary kiln before an electric furnace m
209、elts it to ferronickel(FeNi)or nickel pig iron(NPI),both of which are Class 2 nickel.FeNi and NPI can either be used in steel production or converted to nickel matte,which,in turn,can be processed into Class 1 nickel for batteries.In Indonesia,coal is used directly in the process and often in captiv
210、e plants dedicated to smelting,to produce the electricity required in this process.In the HPAL process,nickel ore is mixed with acid and steam in an autoclave.After this,the leach is washed by counter-current decantation before mixed hydroxide precipitate(MHP)is obtained through the addition of magn
211、esium oxide,or mixed sulphide precipitate(MSP)is obtained through the addition of hydrogen sulphide.MHP and MSP can finally be processed to Class 1 nickel for batteries.Coal is used indirectly for power generation often in captive plants in this process.With growing demand for electric vehicles and
212、batteries,demand for nickel is increasing and so is the investment in nickel production capacity in Indonesia,led by Chinese companies active in the electric vehicle industry supply chain.Significant investments are being made in both processes.For example,Chinese nickel producer Lygend alone will a
213、dd a production capacity of more than 0.4 Mtpa nickel metal equivalent by 2024,according to Argus Media,including six HPAL projects totalling 0.12 Mtpa and 20 RKEF projects totalling 0.28 Mtpa.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|35 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Mainly driven by the development in t
214、he power sector and rapidly growing nickel production,we expect Indonesias coal consumption to have increased by 23 Mt in 2023 to 228 Mt.Surging demand for nickel is set to strengthen the production of NPI in the coming years,and thus we estimate coal demand of 284 Mt in 2026.Development and forecas
215、t change in coal consumption in ASEAN countries,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The expectation is that coal demand increased in Viet Nam in 2023,mainly due to heatwaves that resulted in summer temperatures of up to 44C driving up cooling demand.Reduced hydro generation caused by low water levels further pu
216、shed coal consumption,which is estimated to have totalled 89 Mt.Looking ahead,Viet Nam recently aligned its coal capacity expansion targets with the JETP agreement.According to current targets,coal capacity should peak at 30 GW in 2030,indicating an increase of 4 GW from todays active capacity.Again
217、st this background we estimate a surge in coal consumption to 103 Mt in 2026.In the Philippines,we expect coal consumption to have increased slightly from 39 Mt in 2022 to 40 Mt in 2023.Like most countries,coal consumption in the Philippines is mainly determined by power generation,and the major sha
218、re of coal consumed is imported from Indonesia.In light of a strong economic outlook,we expect coal consumption to increase as well,reaching 45 Mt in the next three years,as renewable additions seem unlikely to offset the growth in electricity demand in the near future.Thailand uses significant amou
219、nts of lignite to power electricity generation.In 2022,lignite accounted for 15 Mt of Thailands combined coal consumption of 35 Mt.Lignite-fired capacity is set to be expanded by 0.7 GW by 2026;however,0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 40020226MtIndonesiaViet NamMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandOthe
220、r ASEANForecast0 100 200 300 400 500 600202220232026Mt0 10 20 30 40 50 602023-26MtCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|36 I EA.CC BY 4.0.the remaining coal-fired capacity is unlikely to change significantly in the coming years.For 2023,we expect coal consumption to have decreased by 9
221、%,and by 2026 we forecast a slight increase to 38 Mt.Coal demand is set to decline in mature Asia Pacific economies Coal consumption in the Asia Pacific region is dominated by its use for power generation.Key consumers in this region are Japan,Korea,Australia,and Chinese Taipei with a combined consu
222、mption of 468 Mt in 2022.In Japan,coal consumption was almost steady from 2021 to 2022,slightly increasing by 2 Mt to a total of 185 Mt.Despite skyrocketing LNG spot prices,coal-fired generation has not been affected significantly during the past years energy crisis as Japanese LNG supplies are larg
223、ely covered by long-term contracts.The return to pre-crisis price levels in energy markets as well as ambitious targets for the deployment of renewables(i.e.the doubling of the renewable electricity share by 2030 compared to the 2019 level)are weighing on the outlook for thermal consumption.Moreover
224、,Japans Kansai Electric Power has restarted operations at its Takahama 1 and 2 nuclear reactors,which had been shut down following the Fukushima disaster,adding about 1.5 GW to the system.Also,as of 2023,a regulatory adjustment allows for the extended operation of old nuclear plants beyond 60 years,
225、improving the prospects for nuclear generation.Besides power generation,met coal demand is expected to remain almost steady.Against the background of these developments,we estimate Japanese coal consumption to decrease by 8%by 2026 to a total of 157 Mt.Coal consumption in Korea also barely changed i
226、n 2022(down 1 Mt),totalling 126 Mt.Despite prices declining in 2023,Koreas coal consumption is expected to have decreased this year,down to 120 Mt.In April,Korea restructured its emission targets for 2030 as it tightens the targets for the power sector while relaxing them for the industrial sector.T
227、he adjusted target for the power sector is to be reached by increased nuclear and renewable generation,while reducing the share of coal in power production from about 34%in 2021 to about 20%in 2030.Accordingly,these targets are reflected in our estimates for the next three years,with coal consumptio
228、n decreasing to 112 Mt in 2026.Overall coal consumption in Australia declined from 100 Mt in 2021 to 95 Mt in 2022 and is estimated to have continued its decrease over the course of 2023 with a reduction of 4%.For the outlook until 2026,we consider further declines in coal-fired power generation to
229、be likely,as coal capacity increasingly serves as backup power to cover peak hours.The Australian Energy Market Operator expects two-thirds of coal-fired power plants to be decommissioned by 2033,although current Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|37 I EA.CC BY 4.0.renewable additio
230、ns are falling short of targets,raising concerns about grid stability and power outages.By 2026,we expect a decrease in coal consumption of 11%to 81 Mt.Coal consumption in Chinese Taipei amounted to 62 Mt in 2022 with 46 Mt used for power generation.In 2023,we expect coal consumption to have remaine
231、d almost steady,as renewable expansion continued,but nuclear generation decreased.Chinese Taipei plans to fully phase out nuclear power by 2025,and at the same time seeks to push up the share of renewables in the power mix.We estimate aggregate coal consumption of 57 Mt in 2026.Coal consumption by g
232、rade in a selection of mature Asia Pacific economies,2022 and 2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Robust coal demand in South Asia Emerging markets such as Pakistan,Bangladesh,and Sri Lanka were greatly affected by the high energy prices of 2022.At times,these countries could not afford to purchase sufficient amount
233、s of primary energy,such as coal or gas,to ensure their growing demand was met,partly resulting in energy shortages.Our estimation for 2023 includes steady to moderate gains in these markets,as coal prices have declined significantly relative to 2022 levels.The Pakistani rupee saw an inflation rate
234、of almost 20%in 2022,and inflation remained high during 2023.This led to a decline in the purchasing power of Pakistani buyers,increasing the cost of coal imports.To counteract this,Pakistans coal miners steadily boosted domestic production.SECMC,Pakistans largest coal miner,has set a target to incr
235、ease its output by around 50%by 2024,0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20020222026202220262022202620222026JapanKoreaAustraliaChinese TaipeiMtThermal coalThermal coal and ligniteMet coalForecastCoal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|38 I EA.CC BY 4.0.including the significant expansion o
236、f lignite production.Furthermore,the 1.3 GW Thar Block-I power plant funded by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)began operating in February,fuelling coal demand.This recent start-up is in line with Pakistans latest announcements of a shift away from gas to coal in reaction to the high LNG p
237、rices suffered in 2022,aiming to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to 10 GW.However,financing for these projects is uncertain as China,the largest financer,has committed to not finance new coal plants abroad.Given these developments,our model calculates an increase in coal consumption from
238、32 Mt in 2023 to 39 Mt in 2026.Similar developments in respect of inflation took place in Bangladesh,where the value of the Bangladeshi taka sharply decreased and made coal imports costly.Even a new coal plant,commissioned in late 2022,ran out of coal and was idle for several weeks in 2023.Together
239、with adverse weather conditions causing higher demand,this led to disruptions in electricity supply,especially between May and July.However,coal capacity in Bangladesh is set to increase.The 1.2 GW Matarbari and 1.2 GW Banshkhali coal plants are in the testing phase and are expected to begin commerc
240、ial operation shortly.In November 2023,the 1.3 GW Maitree Power Plant was commissioned,putting coal generation capacity above 5 GW.Although projects are under consideration,their progress is uncertain as funding institutions from outside the country pledge to withdraw from financing coal projects in
241、ternationally.Coal consumption in 2022 was 7 Mt and is expected to have increased to 13 Mt in 2023.Our estimate is for coal consumption to increase to 19 Mt by 2026,fuelled by significant capacity additions and a strong economic outlook.Coal consumption in Sri Lanka plunged to 1.9 Mt in 2022 and is
242、expected to have remained almost steady during 2023.Our estimate is for coal consumption to increase to 2.6 Mt by 2026,but this is subject to the performance of the Lakvijaya power station,the only coal power plant in Sri Lanka.Coal plant performance in South Africa is decisive for African coal cons
243、umption Coal consumption in Africa decreased by 4.4 Mt in 2022 to a total of 187 Mt amid persistent issues in South Africas coal plant fleet.However,the decrease was modest as consumption was already at a reduced level in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.During 2023 economic activity in Africa
244、 has been stagnant,and power cuts in South Africa continued to weigh on the continents coal demand.For the period until 2026,we forecast a U-turn in the continents coal consumption trend,with total demand increasing to 193 Mt in the next three years,mainly due to better performance of the coal asset
245、s operated by the state-owned power utility Eskom.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|39 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Africas coal consumption is mainly driven by developments in South Africa,accounting for 84%of the continents consumption in 2022.Amid high energy prices and slow recovery from Cov
246、id-19,South Africas coal consumption decreased in 2022 by 6 Mt to 160 Mt.For 2023 South Africa is set to have experienced record load shedding,affecting households and industrial activity alike.The poor performance of coal power plants,owned by Eskom,is the main culprit for the power shortages.These
247、 power cuts are estimated to have shaved 2 percentage points off the countrys GDP.Considering the low availability of the coal-fired power plant fleet,we estimate coal consumption in 2023 to have decreased further to 154 Mt.South Africa is part of the JETP,which aims to close almost half of South Af
248、ricas coal plants by 2030.Looking ahead,the circa USD 500 million Eskom Just Energy Transition Project(EJETP),funded by the World Bank,seeks to decommission the 56-year-old Komati coal plant and in turn fund the installation of around 0.2 GW of renewable capacity and about 0.2 GW of battery capacity
249、.The coal plant was shut down in late 2022 and recorded low availability in recent years.However,given the critical supply situation,South Africas climate policy body recently suggested delaying the retirement of coal plants without specifying a timeline.In addition to that,Eskom was due to restart
250、2.4 GW of coal capacity by the end of 2023.Against this background,we expect coal consumption to rebound to 164 Mt by 2026.In Zimbabwe,a 0.3 GW coal-fired power unit started operation in March,and another block of a similar size is expected to come online in late 2023.Coal capacity in Botswana is ab
251、out to increase as well,as a new 0.6 GW coal plant is planned for construction by Indias Jindal Steel and Power Ltd.,with completion due in 2026.Beyond these,we expect no new coal projects to be commissioned in Africa by 2026.Global coal demand is likely to show its fourth significant decline since
252、the 1980s With this years coal report forecasting a structural reversal in global coal consumption,it is worth putting recent developments into perspective.The historical trajectory of coal consumption exhibits an almost constant increase over the last four decades,doubling in the 30-year period fro
253、m 1984 to 2014.However,three crisis-driven events caused coal consumption to decline sharply for a short period.The first event initiating a downward trend was the collapse of the Soviet Union around the 1990s marking the end of the Cold War.The resulting political uncertainty and the dismantling of
254、 heavy industry in the USSR and countries in its orbit weighed on economic activity,which in turn led coal consumption to decline by 7%between 1989 and 1992.Coal 2023 Demand Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|40 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Another remarkable decline in coal consumption took place during the peri
255、od 2014-2016,when an economic slowdown in China curbed global coal demand.With weak growth in power demand,more than met by non-coal generation sources,lower demand for non-power applications and contraction in the steel and cement sector,Chinese coal demand dropped by 9%in these three years,and glo
256、bal demand by 6%as a consequence.The latest drop in global coal consumption started in 2019,when natural gas prices falling to well-below average levels and slow growth in power demand weighed on coal-fired generation.The decrease in coal consumption was even stronger in 2020,with Covid-19 as the dr
257、iver of the downturn.The pandemic caused the disruption of supply chains,industrial activity to plunge,and power demand to drop accordingly.During the two-year period global coal demand saw a decline of 3.9%.All the above-mentioned declines in global coal consumption were reversed during the recover
258、y once the effects of the crisis were over.Now,amid steady demand for met coal,we appear to be facing a structural change in coal demand for power generation triggered by the rise of renewables,which are about to grow more strongly than electricity demand.In the short term,the uncertainty comes from
259、 weather variability,which significantly impacts renewable generation.Over the longer term,the accelerating growth of renewables is likely to continue.Irrespective of demand levels,the eastward shift of coal consumption leaves coal bastions such as China,India and the ASEAN countries to be decisive
260、for the actual trend in global coal markets.Global coal consumption,1978-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The period to 2020 shows data without adjustment from the fiscal to the calendar year in some world regions.01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 00008201420202026MtHistoricalS
261、ignificant declineForecastCoal 2023 Supply Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|41 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Supply Global coal supply is likely to have peaked in 2023 and then to decline in line with demand Further growth in global coal demand in 2022,after the big rebound in 2021,pushed global coal supplies to
262、 new highs of about 8 582 Mt(up 7%).The increase was led by China,which drove up domestic production to reduce its exposure to high import prices and to avoid supply shortages.Indonesian production growth overtook Indian growth,with exports seeing a remarkable uptick to serve increased seaborne dema
263、nd for thermal coal amid a rise in domestic demand.Global coal production is forecast to have risen by 1.8%in 2023,with continued growth in India,China and Indonesia more than offsetting declines in the United States and the European Union.Thus,2023 marks another all-time high in global coal product
264、ion,totalling 8 741 Mt.Steam coal and lignite account for about 87%of global coal production and their growth in production accounts for similar share of the global production increase.Coking coal accounts for the balance,driven by strong growth in Mongolia.Change in global coal production,2021-2026
265、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.-600-400-2000 200 400 600 8-20232023-2026MtRest of worldRussiaEuropean UnionUnited StatesAustraliaIndonesiaIndiaChinaForecastWorldCoal 2023 Supply Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.For the forecast period,we expect a net reduction in global coal produ
266、ction starting in 2024,which would mean global coal production peaking in 2023 in line with global coal demand.Ongoing declines in the United States and the European Union are likely to be complemented by reduced production volumes in Indonesia,as Chinese demand for seaborne thermal coal is likely t
267、o decrease.The last bastion of remarkable growth in production is India,serving the growing demand from its power sector.Our model suggests that declines in other countries will more than offset this growth,resulting in global production of 8 394 Mt in 2026.Global coal production,2002-2026 IEA.CC BY
268、 4.0.Coal production in China saw a remarkable uptick in 2022 In 2022,Chinas coal production grew by almost 9%to 4 374 Mt,an all-time high.China significantly boosted domestic coal production in response to a policy released in autumn 2021,which made coal production a key energy policy priority,as e
269、arlier coal shortages caused severe power cuts.Furthermore,a ramp-up of domestic coal production was aimed at reducing Chinas exposure to import prices,which reached extraordinarily high levels in 2022.Domestic production rose to unprecedented highs,passing 400 Mt in a single month for the first tim
270、e in December 2022,according to the National Bureau of Statistics.01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 0002002200520082002020232026MtChinaIndiaIndonesiaAustraliaUnited StatesRussiaRest of WorldForecastCoal 2023 Supply Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0.At about 85%
271、,most of Chinas coal production is thermal coal,complemented by met coal4.More than 80%of its thermal coal production is concentrated in just four regions:Inner Mongolia(34%),Shaanxi(23%),Shanxi(20%)and Xinjiang(6%).Whilst 2021 saw a decrease in output from small-and medium-sized mines in some regio
272、ns,thermal coal output rose in all mine segments in 2022.The four major regions accounted for more than 90%of the total thermal coal output increase of 10%,predominantly driven by expanding output from large-scale mines.Inner Mongolia alone contributed more than half of the growth.Change in thermal
273、coal production in Chinas major producing regions by mine size,2021-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA,adapted from CRU(2023).Thermal Cost Model(database).However,as China boosted domestic production to avoid supply shortages,the quality of the thermal coal has declined.In a recent report,the Cinda Secur
274、ities Research and Development Centre noted that the growth rate of coal consumption for power generation has been significantly higher than the rate of growth in thermal power generation,indicating a decline in coal quality.Furthermore,key mining areas in northern Shanxi are reported to have shifte
275、d from high-quality to lower-quality thermal coal,as their high-quality reserves deplete.In addition to that,estimated washing ratios,an indicator for coal quality,have decreased by almost five percentage points between 2020 and 2022.Met coal production rose by 1.1%in 2022,with Shanxi contributing m
276、ost of this growth.Shanxi remains the most important met coal producer with a share of more 4 Although China also produces anthracite and lignite,available data do not report these categories separately.0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200InnerMongoliaShanxiShaanxiXinjiangOthersMtLarge(6.9 Mtpa)Medium(2.3
277、-6.9 Mtpa)Small(6.9 Mtpa)Medium(2.3-6.9 Mtpa)Small(5 700 kcal/kg)thermal coal FOB supply curve 2022 and average FOB marker prices IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The cost curves account for variable production costs,overburden removal,royalties,inland transport,and port usage fees.The cost curve is not adjusted
278、 for different qualities of coal.The transport costs given are to the closest port,so the FOB costs of Russian producers in Asia can be somewhat higher than shown in the figure.Russian costs have been adjusted according to IEA estimates.The annual average FOB marker price is based on the monthly ave
279、rage index of Newcastle/Indonesian steam coal.The 2023 prices are based on the monthly average from January to November.Sources:IEA analysis based on Argus Media Group.All rights reserved.IEA,adapted from CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model(database).In the segment of low-CV thermal coal,which is dominated
280、 by Indonesia,the supply curve extended by about 9 Mt as Indonesia ramped up production in 2022.Once again,Indonesia proved to be the most flexible coal supplier.Weighted average costs and average prices of Indonesian coal rose by about 31%and 29%respectively.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 50 100
281、150 200 250 300 350 400USD/tMtAustraliaIndonesiaRussiaUnited StatesSouth AfricaColombiaOthers2021Newcastle(6 000 kcal/kg,FOB,2023)Newcastle(6 000 kcal/kg,FOB,2021)Newcastle(6 000 kcal/kg,FOB,2022)Coal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|92 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Indicative low-CV(4 500
282、kcal/kg)thermal coal FOB supply curve 2022 and average FOB marker prices IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The cost curves account for variable production costs,overburden removal,royalties,inland transport,and port usage fees.The cost curve is not adjusted for different qualities of coal.The transport costs give
283、n are to the closest port,so the FOB costs of Russian producers in Asia are somewhat higher than shown in the figure.Russian costs have been adjusted according to IEA estimates The annual average FOB marker price is based on the monthly average index of Newcastle/Indonesian steam coal.The 2023 price
284、s are based on the monthly average from January to November.Sources:IEA analysis based on Argus Media Group.All rights reserved.IEA,adapted from CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model(database).Input costs of coal mines vary in their volatility The cost structure of coal mines is determined mainly by operatin
285、g expenses such as labour and fuel costs,taxes and royalties,as well as transport costs(e.g.for inland transport,port fees and seaborne freight).The cost proportion depends on the mining method(surface or underground)and can vary considerably depending on the producer,country and specific mine site.
286、Input factors such as fuel,explosives,tyres and steel products are traded internationally,and prices follow global trends.Prices for tyres and explosives have been more stable than fuel and steel prices in recent years.Driven by inflation,their prices have steadily increased by about 29%and 22%,resp
287、ectively,since the beginning of 2021.In contrast,fuel and steel,which are traded in more liquid global markets,have been subject to more fluctuations.In June 2020,demand destruction during the Covid-19 pandemic drove fuel prices to their lowest level since 2003,only to reach record levels two years
288、later in mid-2022.One year on,prices returned to levels last seen in January 2021,albeit still about 37%above levels at the beginning of 2020.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160USD/tMtIndonesiaRussiaOthers2021Indonesia(4 200 kcal/kg,FOB,2023)&(4 200 kcal/kg,FOB,2021)Indones
289、ia(4 200 kcal/kg,FOB,2022)Coal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|93 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Prices for steel products hardly changed during the Covid-19 pandemic.However,as steelmaking is an energy-intensive industry,rising energy prices took their toll in 2021:they more than doubled i
290、n 2021 before a deteriorating economic outlook sent prices on a downward trend,which lost momentum at the beginning of 2023.By mid-2023,prices for steel products were still 70%above their level at the beginning of 2021.Nominal prices of selected commodities and input factors used in coal mining,2020
291、-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA Analysis based on US Bureau of Labour Statistics(2023),Producer Price Indexes.Fuel costs decrease with easing energy markets Diesel fuel costs are an important cost factor in coal mining.This is especially true for opencast mines,which rely heavily on diesel-fuelled ve
292、hicles and other equipment.Consequently,fuel costs have a greater influence on overall mining costs in those countries with a higher share of opencast mining(e.g.Colombia and Indonesia).In countries such as China,where opencast mining accounts for only a minor share of overall mining,fuel costs play
293、 a minor role in the profitability of a mine.Nevertheless,oil prices are always a factor when coal is transported.In 2022,fuel prices increased in many countries,and so did fuel as a share of overall mining costs,as its cost grew more strongly than other cost factors.At about five percentage points
294、each,Colombia and Indonesia recorded the strongest increase in fuels share of mining costs.In Australia,driven by a substantial increase in royalties,the share remained constant.In 2023,fuel prices 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23IndexDiesel fuelExplosives
295、Steel productsTyresCoal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|94 I EA.CC BY 4.0.declined,and so did fuels share of overall mining costs in most countries.The only exceptions to this are China,Australia and South Africa,where the share remained constant.Average fuel costs and share
296、 of total coal mining costs in selected countries,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA,adapted from CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model(database).Labour costs increased in absolute terms but fell as a share of total costs Labour costs vary significantly among coal-producing countries and affect the competiti
297、veness of exporters.14 Except for South Africa,where labour costs slightly decreased as a result of a depreciating rand,labour costs marginally rose in 2022.Consequently,as other cost factors such as royalties and fuel costs increased more strongly,the share of labour costs in total mining costs dec
298、reased.In 2023 labour costs further increased in most countries except for South Africa,as the willingness to pay higher wages to attract workers remains high in coal industries.With other cost factors predominantly royalties decreasing,the share of labour costs rose in most countries.In Russia and
299、China,the share of labour costs even rose above 2021 levels.14 China is included because its domestic coastal coal trade of more than 800 Mt is comparable with global trade.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2020222222120222023
300、202120222023Australia Colombia IndonesiaRussiaSouthAfricaUnitedStatesChinaUSD/tAverage fuel costs(left axis)Share of fuel costs in total mining costs(right axis)Coal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|95 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Average labour costs and share of total coal mining costs i
301、n selected countries,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA,adapted from CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model(database).Governments increased royalties to benefit from high prices National and regional governments levy royalties on each tonne of coal produced in return for granting mining licences.The level of
302、royalties varies from country to country and from region to region and has been subject to adjustments in response to the high price phase in recent years.During the high-price phase in 2021 and 2022,some governments increased royalties significantly to benefit from the exceptionally high prices.In
303、2022,royalties roughly doubled.In Queensland,Australia,royalties grew the most by approximately 134%.Consequently,royalties share of overall mining costs increased in 2022.Royalty costs in Queensland accounted for almost 30%of total mining costs.In 2023,as prices softened,royalties declined as they
304、are linked to coal prices,albeit remaining above 2021 levels.Correspondingly,their share of total costs decreased significantly in the Australian states of New South Wales and Queensland.In Indonesia and Western Australia,royalties share of total mining costs remained constant.In other major exporti
305、ng countries,such as Russia,the United States,South Africa,and Colombia,royalties have been less of a factor in recent years.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27202222222120222023Australia Colombia IndonesiaRussiaSout
306、hAfricaUnitedStatesChinaUSD/tAverage labour costs(left axis)Share of labour costs in total mining costs(right axis)Coal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|96 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Average royalties and share of total coal mining costs in selected areas,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:I
307、EA,adapted from CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model(database).Governments,especially Australia,benefit from record royalty payments In total,the high-price phase in global coal markets,paired with royalty adjustments in some countries,has put considerable amounts of money into public coffers in recent year
308、s.Based on our assessment of costs and realised prices,in Australia,royalties on coal exports rose from a pandemic-related low of USD 2.6 billion in 2020 to about USD 15 billion in 2022,doubling in 2021 and tripling in 2022,according to our estimates.In Indonesia,total royalties on exports rose from
309、 USD 1.4 billion to about USD 5.9 billion.In 2023,due to overall price decreases,royalties declined,amounting to USD 10 billion in Australia and USD 4.3 billion in Indonesia.In other exporting countries,export-related royalties are much lower compared to Australia and Indonesia,the worlds largest ex
310、porters.The combined royalties of other exporters grew from about USD 1.1 billion in 2020 to about USD 4 billion in 2022,a little more than a quarter of the Australian royalties.However,incentivised by the high prices in recent years,smaller exporting countries have sought to benefit more by adjusti
311、ng royalty and tax schemes.For example,Russia imposed an export duty on coal,which is linked to currency exchange rates,starting from October 2023.Furthermore,Colombia issued a tax reform in 2023,restricting coal mining firms ability to deduct royalty payments from their income tax liabilities.0%5%1
312、0%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0 10 20 30 40 50 602021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023New SouthWalesQueenslandWesternAustraliaSouthKalimantanEastKalimantanCentralKalimantanSouthSumatraUSD/tAverage royalty costs(left axis)Share of royalty co
313、sts in total mining costs(right axis)Coal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|97 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Despite this decision having been overruled by the constitutional court in November 2023,the initial reform underlines Colombias endeavour to increase coal mining duties.Total royalti
314、es for exported coal in selected countries,2020-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA estimates based on CRU(2023),Thermal Cost Model and Metallurgical Cost Model(database).Rising US dollar contributes to other exporters competitiveness Currency exchange rates affect the competitiveness of exporters.While c
315、oal trading contracts are mainly in US dollars,operating costs are settled in local currencies to a larger extent.Consequently,a local currency depreciation against the US dollar implies a reduction in operating costs and an increase in producers competitiveness.Between the beginning of 2022 and mid
316、-2023,the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times,making investments in US dollars comparably more attractive and,therefore,luring investors and capital.Except for the Russian rouble,which appreciated against the US dollar in 2022 due to extraordinarily high revenue streams from energy exp
317、orts,the currencies of major exporting countries and China depreciated compared to the year before.In 2023,the depreciation continued,but slowed for most currencies except the South African,which continued to devalue at the same rate.The Russian rouble recorded a notable reversal,seeing substantial
318、losses of about 17%in 2023,driven by softening energy prices.0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 162020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023AustraliaIndonesiaRestUSD billionAustraliaIndonesiaRussiaUnited StatesSouth AfricaColombiaOthersCoal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|9
319、8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Year-on-year development of Chinas and exporting countries currencies against the US dollar,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:AUD=Australian dollar;CNY=Chinese yuan renminbi;COP=Colombian peso;IDR=Indonesian rupiah;RUB=Russian rouble;ZAR=South African rand.The chart displays the y-o-y a
320、verage exchange rate development of the selected currencies expressed in change from the previous year.2023 represents average exchange rates to September 2023 for all currencies except the AUD and COP,which is to October 2023.Source:OECD(2023),Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics(MEI):Exchange
321、 rates(USD monthly averages).Freight rates return to pre-crisis levels The vast majority of the global coal trade(more than 90%)is seaborne and shipped by dry bulk vessels of different sizes,categorised by their deadweight tonnage(dwt).The four main vessel types are Capesize,Panamax,Handymax/Suprama
322、x and Handysize,with the most used being Panamax(60 000-80 000 dwt)and Capesize(over 80 000 dwt).Freight rates differ between vessel types and routes,and depend on demand and supply for freight.Fuel costs are an important determinant of freight rates.Comprising almost a quarter of the total,seaborne
323、 coal trade has the second-largest share of the overall dry bulk trade by mass,following iron ore with a share of about 30%.After peaking in October 2021,freight rates temporarily softened,driven by seasonal variations and a deterioration of the economic outlook,before ticking up again in the first
324、half of 2022 when,among other factors,Russias war against Ukraine unsettled energy markets and high gas prices drove up the demand for coal as a dry bulk commodity.With easing demand for dry bulk carriers towards the end of 2022 due to a deteriorating economic outlook and decreasing congestion in po
325、rts,which had been caused by pandemic containment measures,freight rates began to fall in the second half of 2022.By mid-2023,freight rates had returned to levels last seen in mid-2022.-20%-10%0%10%20%202120222023AUDCNYCOPIDRRUBZARCoal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|99 I EA
326、.CC BY 4.0.Freight rates on selected routes,2020-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on Argus Media Group.All rights reserved.High profitability of coal exporters in 2022 The recent market turmoil has also affected the profitability of coal trade.In 2020,driven by low prices,average profits
327、 for high-CV thermal coal trades were negative in most major exporting countries.During the high-price phase in 2021 and 2022,the profitability of high-CV thermal coal trades rose sharply around the globe.Surging prices outweighed cost increases,which rose mainly due to an increase in royalties and
328、turned high-CV thermal coal trade into a profitable business.In 2022,Australia recorded profit margins of almost 200 USD/t,with average prices levelling at about three times the average costs.Australia and Colombia reached margins of more than twice the costs.Unlike Australia and Indonesia,South Afr
329、ica and Colombia did not adjust royalties during the high-price phase in 2021 and 2022.In 2023,driven by the strong price decrease,the average profitability of high-CV thermal coal trades decreased globally but still remained profitable.Margins decreased to values above those seen in 2021,as prices
330、were still well above 2021 levels.We have excluded Russia from the profitability analysis as precise costs and prices are affected by uncertainty under current wartime circumstances.Nonetheless,it seems that in 2023 some Russian coal miners found themselves on the verge of unprofitability.Additional
331、 transport expenses and the export duty that came into effect in October may further weigh on the profitability of Russian coal exports.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23USD/tAustralia-Japan(Panamax)Australia-Rotterdam(Capesize)Indonesia-South China(Panamax)C
332、oal 2023 Prices and costs Analysis and forecast to 2026 Page|100 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Indicative profitability of high-CV thermal coal trade by country,2020-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The profit margin is defined as the difference between weighted average prices and weighted average costs.Values below zero i
333、ndicate unprofitability as costs exceed potential profits.Source:IEA,own calculations based on CRU(2023).The profitability of hard coking coal exports witnessed similar developments,albeit with some nuances.Compared to thermal coal,profitability decreased less in 2023 as prices and costs decreased at similar rates.In Mozambique,continuous cost decreases between 2020 and 2023,paired with high globa