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1、Oil2023Analysis and forecast to 2028The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies t
2、hat will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online at www.ie
3、a.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.All rights reserved.International Energy Agency Websi
4、te:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium CanadaCzech Republic Denmark EstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kin
5、gdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineRevised version,June 2023Information notice found:www.iea.org/correctionsOil 2023 Ab
6、stract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The global energy crisis has moved energy security to the fore of the international policy agenda and boosted the momentum behind the deployment of clean energy technologies.Investment in clean energy is accelerating at a faster rate than for fossil fuels,helpin
7、g bring peak oil demand into view.Oil 2023,the IEAs medium-term outlook,provides a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2028.The report examines how a stronger drive by governments towards a low-emissions future and changes in behaviour will impact oil market
8、fundamentals in the coming years.Oil 2023 explores some of the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead,including upstream investment,sources of new supply growth,spare capacity and shifting patterns of oil demand.It also provides insights as to how these changing dynamics will affect refining an
9、d trade flows.Oil 2023 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security.The principal authors are,in alphabetical order,Yu
10、ya Akizuki,Alexander Bressers,Joel Couse,Ciarn Healy,Peg Mackey,David Martin,Jacob Messing and Jenny Thomson.Julien Canu and Luis Fernando Rosa provided statistical support and essential research assistance.Toril Bosoni,head of OIMD,led the analysis and edited the Report.Keisuke Sadamori,director of
11、 the IEAs Directorate of Energy Markets and Security,provided expert guidance and advice.Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorial assistance.The report benefited greatly from contributions from other experts within the IEA,including Yasmine Arsalane,Alessandro Blasi,Laura Cozzi,Paolo Frankl,Ti
12、m Gould,Paul Grimal,Jrme Hilaire,Christophe McGlade,Jeremy Moorhouse,Apostolos Petropoulos and Gianluca Tonolo.The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launch support.Particular thanks go to Jad Mouawad and his team;Astrid Dumond,Oliver Joy,Jethro Mullen,Therese Walsh and Is
13、abelle Nonain-Semelin.Diane Munro edited the report.Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.8 Demand.11 Global summary.11 Fundamentals.14 Energy transition gathers pace.17 Petrochemicals power ahead,China takes centre stage.26 Aviation and marine demand g
14、rowth resumes.30 Demand developments by region.33 Supply.42 Global summary.42 Investment and exploration.47 OPEC+supply.51 Non-OPEC+supply.65 Refining.80 Global summary.80 Refining capacity.82 Refining industry adapts to demand changes.86 Regional developments.90 Global oil trade.100 Global summary.
15、100 Crude oil balances and trade.102 Product balances and trade.107 Tables.112 Abbreviations and acronyms.124 Units of measure.125 List of figures Annual oil demand growth,2022-2028.11 Global cumulative oil demand growth by fuel,2022-2028.12 Impact of alternative oil price forecast scenarios,2023-20
16、28.17 Cumulative transport fuels demand growth,2022-2028.18 New EVs and improved efficiency will avoid 7.8 mb/d of extra oil demand,2022-2028.19 Global annual EV sales by country/region,2010-2028.20 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Oil use in power generation by region,2022-2028.22 O
17、ECD and non-OECD mobility indexes,March 2020 to October 2023.24 Estimated teleworking impact on oil demand,2019-2028.25 World oil demand and petrochemical sector contribution.27 Annual olefins oil-based capacity change,(primary output),2019-2028.28 Annual change in oil-based olefins feedstock use by
18、 region and by product,2019-2028.29 Global air traffic,2019-2023(weekly).30 International marine bunker demand impact of efficiency gains,2022-2028.32 Global cumulative oil demand growth by region,2022-2028.33 North America cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.34 Gasoline versus diesel
19、in European ICE car fleet,2006-2028.35 Europe cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.36 China cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.37 India cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028.39 Global oil supply capacity and demand forecast,year-on-year change,2022-2028.42 OPE
20、C+spare crude oil production capacity.43 Oil supply changes for select countries from 2022-2028.46 Middle East regains market share over the medium term.47 Global oil and gas upstream capital spending.48 Oil and gas capital spending by selected companies.48 Conventional production additions by sanct
21、ion year.49 Conventional discoveries have slowed markedly over the last decade.50 OPEC crude oil production capacity change 2023-2028.52 Saudi Arabia estimated crude oil production and capacity.53 Iraq,UAE help drive OPEC+supply gains.54 Kuwait estimated crude oil production and capacity,2018-2028.5
22、6 Iran crude oil production,1986-2028.57 Russia estimated total oil supply,2021-2028.59 OPEC+Africa crude oil production capacity(y-o-y change).61 Libya estimated crude oil production and capacity.63 Mexico total production and contribution by new fields.64 US growth expectations moderated by shifti
23、ng investment strategies.66 Productivity increases have plateaued or reversed in key LTO basins.67 Canadian oil supply by product,2018-2028.70 Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin takeaway capacity.71 Bzios and Mero drive Brazilian growth through the decade.72 Guyana growth driven by recent discoverie
24、s in the Stabroek block.73 Investments in Norway delay but do not offset North Sea decline.75 Asian oil supply by country,2018-2028.77 Africa oil production by country,2018-2028.79 Slowing demand growth raises risk of further refining industry closures.80 Refined product demand growth curtailed by c
25、ompeting sources of supply.81 Asia dominates 2022-2028 capacity expansions as Atlantic Basin closures diminish.82 After the first fall in 30 years in 2021,refining capacity growth rebounds.83 Net product exporters dominate refining capacity building,2022-2028(mb/d).84 Firm and proposed refinery capa
26、city additions.85 Regional and country refinery throughputs,2012-2028.86 Change in global refining yields,2022-2028.88 Record refining margins posted in 2022,especially for US Gulf Coast.89 China refining capacity overtook United States in 2022,throughputs in 2025.90 Oil 2023 Table of contents PAGE|
27、7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Mexican refinery capacity,throughput,crude production and exports.91 OECD Europe refinery capacity,throughput,crude imports and product exports.92 European refinery throughputs and free emission allocations,2013-2022.93 North,West and South and East African refinery crude throughput
28、 and net crude exports.94 China refinery capacity,throughput,net crude imports,and net product exports.96 India refinery capacity and crude runs,net crude import and products exports.98 Russian oil exports,January 2022-May 2023.100 World crude and condensate balances by region,2019-2028.101 Shares i
29、n uptake of global volumes from net crude exporting regions.102 Crude oil balances by region,2012-2028.103 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus in Atlantic Basin by region.105 Change versus 2022 for crude surplus East of Suez by region.106 World gasoline and naphtha balances,2022-2028.109 World midd
30、le distillate balances(diesel,gasoil,jet fuel and kerosene),2022-2028.110 World fuel oil balance,2022-2028.111 List of boxes How green is the growth?.44 Shale growth at risk from lower prices,higher costs.68 Biofuels to provide 10%of new liquid fuel supply growth to 2028.73 Chinese policy key to bal
31、ancing global fuel markets.97 List of tables Global oil demand by product(mb/d),2019-2028.13 Global oil demand by region(mb/d),2019-2028.14 Real GDP growth assumptions.15 Oil demand by product(mb/d):North America,2019-2028.34 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Europe,2019-2028.35 Oil demand by product(mb/d
32、):Asia Pacific,2019-2028.36 Oil demand by product(mb/d):China,2019-2028.37 Oil demand by product(mb/d):India,2019-2028.38 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Central and South America,2019-2028.39 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Africa,2019-2028.40 Oil demand by product(mb/d):Middle East,2019-2028.40 Oil demand
33、 by product(mb/d):Eurasia,2019-2028.41 OPEC crude oil production capacity(mb/d).58 Total Non-OPEC+supply(mb/d).65 Regional refinery capacity and utilisation 2022-2028.83 Oil demand and call on refined products(mb/d),2022-2028.87 Middle East refinery capacity expansions(kb/d),2022-2028.95 Oil 2023 Ex
34、ecutive summary PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary World oil markets reset Global oil markets are gradually recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the Russian Federations(hereafter“Russia”)invasion of Ukraine.Benchmark crud
35、e oil prices are back below pre-war levels and refined product cracks have now come off all-time highs after rising supplies coincided with a marked slowdown in oil demand growth in advanced economies.Moreover,an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows and two consecutive emergency stock rel
36、eases by IEA member countries in 2022 allowed industry inventories to rebuild,easing market tensions.While the market could significantly tighten in the coming months as OPEC+production cuts temper the upswing in global oil supplies,the outlook improves over our 2022-28 forecast period.Russias invas
37、ion of Ukraine sparked a surge in oil prices and brought security of supply concerns to the fore,helping accelerate deployment of clean energy technologies.At the same time,upstream investments in 2023 are expected to reach to their highest levels since 2015.Our projections assume major oil producer
38、s maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows.A resulting spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d,concentrated in the Middle East,should ensure that world oil markets are adequately supplied throughout our forecast period.As always,there are a number of risks to our for
39、ecasts that could affect market balances over the medium term.Uncertain global economic conditions,the direction of OPEC+decisions and Beijings refining industry policy will play a crucial role in the balancing of crude oil and product markets.Energy crisis accelerates transition away from oil Based
40、 on existing policy settings,growth in world oil demand is set to slow markedly during the 2022-28 forecast period as the energy transition advances.While a peak in oil demand is on the horizon,continued increases in petrochemical feedstock and air travel means that overall consumption continues to
41、grow throughout the forecast.We estimate that global oil demand reaches 105.7 mb/d in 2028,up 5.9 mb/d compared with 2022 levels.Crucially,however,demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels which excludes biofuels,petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses-is on course to peak at 81.6 mb/d
42、 in 2028,the final year of our forecast.Growth is set to reverse Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.after 2023 for gasoline and after 2026 for transport fuels overall.These trends are the result of a pivot towards lower-emission sources triggered by the global energy crisis,as well as p
43、olicy emphasis on energy efficiency improvements and the rapid growth in electric vehicle(EV)sales.The Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)was the last major economy to lift its stringent Covid-19 restrictions at the end of 2022,leading to a post-pandemic oil demand rebound in the first half
44、of 2023.But demand growth in China slows markedly from 2024 onwards,and global oil demand growth shrivels from 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to just 400 kb/d by 2028.Nevertheless,burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced ec
45、onomies.For total oil demand to decline sooner,in line with the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario),additional policy measures and behavioural changes would be required.The petrochemical sector will remain the key driver of global oil demand growth,with liquified petroleum gas(LPG
46、),ethane and naphtha accounting for more than 50%of the rise between 2022 and 2028 and nearly 90%of the increase compared with pre-pandemic levels.The aviation sector will expand strongly as airline travel returns to normal following the reopening of borders.At the start of 2023,jet fuel demand was
47、still lagging 2019 levels by more than 1 mb/d,or 13%.It quickly accelerates and contributes the highest growth across all products over the forecast period,increasing by a substantial 2 mb/d.However,efficiency improvements and behavioural changes will slow the pace of growth so consumption will only
48、 surpass 2019 levels by 2027.Non-OPEC+producers lead oil supply capacity growth Global upstream oil and gas investment is on track to increase by an estimated 11%in 2023 to USD 528 billion,compared with USD 474 billion in 2022.While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflati
49、on,this level of investment,if sustained,would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report.Based on the current pipeline of projects underway and US light tight oil(LTO)growth expectations,we see 5.9 mb/d of net additional production capacity brought online by 2028.Despit
50、e easing from 1.9 mb/d on average over 2022-23 to just 300 kb/d by 2028,new capacity building still moves in line with projected demand growth over the forecast period.Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+alliance(non-OPEC+)dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,with a 5.1 mb/d supply boo
51、st led by the United States,Brazil and Guyana.Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates(UAE)and Iraq lead the capacity building within OPEC+,while African and Asian Oil 2023 Executive summary PAGE|10 IEA.CC BY 4.0.members struggle with continuing declines,and Russian production falls due to sanctions.Th
52、is makes for a net capacity gain of 800 kb/d from the 23 members in OPEC+overall.The relatively strong increases from non-OPEC+producers,together with the projected slowdown in demand growth,tempers the requirement for OPEC+crude.As a result,estimated effective spare capacity of at least 3.8 mb/d is
53、 maintained throughout the forecast period.Refinery activity and trade upended A third wave of refinery capacity closures,conversions to biofuel plants and project delays since the pandemic reduced the overhang in global refinery capacity.This,combined with a sharp drop in Chinese oil product export
54、s and an upheaval of Russian trade flows,resulted in record profits for the industry last year.While net refinery capacity additions of 4.4 mb/d expected by 2028 outpace demand growth for refined products,contrasting trends among products means that a repeat of the 2022 tightness in middle distillat
55、es cannot be ruled out.Refiners may need to shift their product yields towards middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks to reflect changing demand patterns.Demand for petroleum-based premium road transport fuels,such as gasoline and diesel,is 1 mb/d below 2019 levels at the end of the forecas
56、t period.At the same time,robust petrochemical activity and slower growth in natural gas liquids(NGLs)supply raises demand for refinery-supplied LPG and naphtha.Chinese production policy will be pivotal for global markets.Close alignment with petrochemical plant feedstock needs could leave middle di
57、stillate markets very tight by 2028.While East of Suez continues to propel growth in capacity additions and refinery runs,the Atlantic Basin could see throughputs decline despite substantial new plants starting up in Nigeria,Mexico and Brazil.However,most of the increase in global crude and condensa
58、te production will come from the Atlantic Basin.The Western Hemisphere,and especially the Americas,will be the largest incremental supplier of oil to global markets,with exports up by 4.1 mb/d by 2028.This shift in trade flows comes in addition to most of the 2.5 mb/d of Russian crude oil backed out
59、 of Europe and G7 countries due to embargoes flowing eastward.The absence of additional Middle East exports in 2028 versus 2022 and surging Asian import requirements result in steadily rising flows from the Atlantic Basin to East of Suez.The prevailing trend for both crude oil and products is increa
60、sed supplies from the Americas and the Middle East to Asia.Refinery additions and dwindling crude production reduces Africas crude export potential by around 15%over the forecast period but curbs its net product import requirements by 10%.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|11 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Demand Global summary W
61、orld oil demand reaching peak milestones Growth in world oil demand is set to lose momentum over the 2022-28 forecast period as the energy transition gathers pace,with an overall peak looming on the horizon.Led by continued increases in petrochemical feedstocks,total oil consumption growth will rema
62、in narrowly positive through 2028 as usage rises to 105.7 mb/d,5.9 mb/d above 2022 levels.Crucially,however,demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels(which excludes biofuels,petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses)will hit its apex at 81.6 mb/d during the final year of our forecast.Thi
63、s milestone marks a historic pivot towards lower-emission sources.The slowdown has been hastened by Russias invasion of Ukraine amid heightened energy security concerns and by governments post-Covid recovery spending plans,with more than USD 2 trillion mobilised for clean energy investments by 2030.
64、Annual oil demand growth,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Fossil oil combustion is total demand minus feedstock use,other non-energy uses and biofuels consumed.The expected pinnacle in oil demand for combustible fossil fuels results from peak post-pandemic consumption for gasoline by 2023,road transport
65、 by 2025 and total transport in 2026.Some economies,notably China and India,will continue to-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022202320242025202620272028mb/dTotal OilFossil oilcombustionRoad transportOther transportPetchem feedBiofuelsOil 2023 Demand PAGE|12 IEA.CC BY 4.0.register growth throughout the fore
66、cast.By contrast,the OECD as a whole may crest to its peak this year a harbinger of the sweeping impact of mounting vehicle efficiencies and electrification.The global post-pandemic economic rebound ended conclusively in 2022,after unprecedented government stimulus and supply chain disruptions cause
67、d consumer inflation to soar.This prompted an extraordinary tightening of monetary policy that is set to weigh on GDP deep into 2024.On a global level,subpar expansion in advanced economies is counterbalanced by robust activity in Asia.This was initially fuelled by Chinas reopening and will be more
68、permanently underpinned by India as it consolidates its status as the worlds fastest-growing major economy.Added to resilient gains in Africa and the Middle East,this casts non-OECD nations as the principal engine of growth,accounting for almost 80%of the 2022-28 increase in global GDP.Global cumula
69、tive oil demand growth by fuel,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Growth in road transport fuel use,long the mainstay of oil demand,is forecast to go into reverse from 2025 and will only narrowly surpass its pre-crisis high point.Projected demand for 2028 would be 7.8 mb/d higher without the savings from new E
70、Vs and efficiency improvements since 2022.This is equivalent to more than the total 2022 jet/kerosene or naphtha deliveries and stands 40%higher than demand in India last year the worlds third-largest consuming nation.Post-pandemic changes in consumer behaviour provide an additional drag on transpor
71、t fuels consumption,as hybrid working and video conferencing have become established for some business sectors in advanced economies.However,at the same time,daily travel in cities has seen a relative shift from public transport to car journeys.-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0 Lpg and naphthaGasolineJet k
72、eroseneGasoilOthermb/dOil 2023 Demand PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY 4.0.New natural gas and renewable electricity generation will also dent oil consumption given their key role in wider energy transition policies.The displacement of fuel oil,gasoil and crude oil used in power generation will be especially perti
73、nent in the Middle East.Several countries in the region,including Saudi Arabia,Kuwait and Iraq,have ambitious plans to move away from their dependence on oil-fired power plants,which will have a major impact on domestic demand in these countries by 2028.The stalwart of demand growth over the past de
74、cade,petrochemical feedstocks will account for more than 40%of overall gains during our forecast period.Roughly 65%of this increase(1.5 mb/d of 2.3 mb/d)will be in naphtha,driven by new liquids-based steam crackers and aromatics facilities,both heavily concentrated in China.These burgeoning capaciti
75、es will outpace underlying end-user polymer and fibre demand,especially during the first half of our forecast,reshaping global trade flows and pressuring higher-cost operators.The steady pace of growth for petrochemicals will not relent as with other sectors,with scant opportunities for efficiency g
76、ains and circular economy initiatives only offering a limited restraint on upward momentum.Global oil demand by product(mb/d),2019-2028 Aviation jet fuel use is forecast to complete the explosive phase of its rebound from Covid-era travel restrictions before the end of 2024.Thereafter,structurally i
77、ncreasing demand for long-distance travel,strongly associated with higher GDP in middle-income countries,will remain a key pillar of overall growth.Total jet/kerosene demand will rise by almost 2 mb/d between 2022 and 2028,but a substantial improvement in aircraft fuel efficiencies mean that it will
78、 take until 2027 to recover beyond 2019 levels.Similarly,fuel oil and gasoil demand for marine bunkers will continue to gain ground(+300 kb/d)in line with rising global GDP.However,efficiency gains,spurred by progressively tightening International Maritime Organization(IMO)measures to reduce greenho
79、use gas emissions,will once again temper growth.On a regional basis,the expansion in global demand will be powered by faster-growing economies in the developing world especially in Asia while oil use in advanced countries contracts.Around three-quarters of the 2022-28 20022202320242025202
80、6202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane13.213.213.814.214.414.614.815.115.515.91.9%1.7Naphtha6.66.46.96.87.07.47.88.08.28.33.4%1.5Gasoline26.723.725.626.026.626.626.626.426.125.8-0.2%-0.3Jet/Kerosene8.04.75.26.27.37.57.67.98.08.24.7%2.0Gasoil/Diesel28.326.127.528.328.428.528.728.728.828
81、.90.4%0.6Residual fuel oil6.25.66.26.56.76.76.76.76.76.70.4%0.2Other products11.811.912.211.811.811.911.912.012.012.00.3%0.2Total products100.791.797.599.8102.3103.1104.1104.8105.3105.71.0%5.9Annual change0.6-9.05.82.32.40.91.00.70.50.4Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|14 IEA.CC BY 4.0.increase will come from As
82、ia,with India surpassing China as the main source of growth by 2027.By contrast,oil demand in North America and Europe,where energy transition policies and efficiency gains will be most pronounced,spends most of the forecast period in contractionary mode.Global oil demand by region(mb/d),2019-2028 F
83、undamentals Global GDP remains under pressure The global economy returned to pre-Covid-19 levels in early 2021.After a drop of 3.1%in 2020,real world GDP grew by 6.4%in 2021 as countries began to reopen from lockdowns while governments and central banks massively increased fiscal and monetary stimul
84、us.The extraordinary rebound in economic activity gradually dissipated over the course of 2022,as consumer prices soared amid booming aggregate demand and supply chain problems,exacerbated by rallying commodity prices in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine.Combined,these developments eventually
85、forced global central banks to adopt a more hawkish monetary stance from early 2022 onwards.The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by an unprecedented five percentage points between March 2022 and May 2023.This monetary turnaround has begun to weigh heavily on OECD growth,raising recess
86、ionary prospects.Added to a gradual reduction in bank lending to households and business,these interest rate hikes are expected to reduce 2023 GDP growth to around 1%for the United States and the eurozone.The downturn in advanced economies renders the global outlook even more dependent on Chinas pos
87、t-Covid pandemic reopening being able to maintain its early momentum,which should eventually lift global trade and manufacturing.The bearish outlook translates into below-trend GDP growth of 2.4%and 2.8%in 2023 and 2024,respectively,only recovering in 2025 as OECD economies rebound amid a pivot towa
88、rds monetary easing.After peaking at 3.7%in 2025,global GDP growth is seen averaging 3.3%in 2026-28.200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthNorth America25.022.123.924.624.724.524.324.023.823.5-0.8%-1.1S&C America6.75.86.46.66.76.86.97.07.17.21.5%0.6Europe15.713.714.
89、514.914.914.814.714.614.514.3-0.6%-0.5Africa4.13.84.04.24.34.44.54.64.74.82.0%0.5Middle East8.88.18.59.09.29.39.49.69.79.81.3%0.7Eurasia4.34.24.54.64.64.64.64.74.74.70.5%0.1Asia Pacific35.934.035.735.837.838.839.740.340.941.32.4%5.5World100.791.797.599.8102.3103.1104.1104.8105.3105.71.0%5.9Annual ch
90、ange0.6-9.05.82.32.40.91.00.70.50.4Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|15 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Real GDP growth assumptions Sources:IEA,IMF and Oxford Economics.End of pandemic marks a shift in demand trends It bears noting that 2023 marks the last Covid-19 transition year for global oil demand,with China the final major
91、country to lift lockdown restrictions in December 2022.The subsequent surge in mobility that prompted a release of pent-up oil demand appeared to be cresting in mid-2023 and is expected to lose momentum during the remainder of the year,thereby normalising baselines from 2024 onwards.In parallel,glob
92、al supply-chain constraints and cross-border restrictions that characterised 2020-22 have also abated.Fittingly,the World Health Organization(WHO)declared an end to the Covid-19 pandemic as a global health emergency in May 2023.On a macroeconomic level,the impact of Covid-19 will be felt for years t
93、o come now that the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus prompted by the pandemic is being withdrawn.Although direct Covid-19 fiscal support measures have largely been unwound,the immense spending programmes launched at the height of the pandemic will continue to stretch government finances,as
94、 debts undertaken will have to be repaid eventually.This is particularly acute in the current high interest rate environment as central bank liquidity is being withdrawn.The slow-burning credit crunch among retail banks in advanced economies will act as a further drag on economic activity.Emerging m
95、arkets are especially vulnerable to a deleveraging squeeze,having seen their debt levels and fiscal imbalances rise to dangerous levels,which could undermine medium-term growth.GDP growth in the United States for 2023 is assumed at a lacklustre 0.9%in our projections,slowing to just 0.4%in 2024 as t
96、he country struggles with the aftermath of the US Federal Reserves interest rate hikes.Amid a job market that remains historically tight and elevated inflation,the risk of a wage-price spiral is real.Fiscal policy is also anticipated to tighten,as budget deficits and debt levels have climbed to unco
97、mfortably high levels.Growth is forecast to recover somewhat,to an average 2%over the 2025-28 period.Chinas economy is rebounding after the marked slowdown in 2022,led by soaring mobility and services.Chinas key challenge will be its ability to maintain economic 2002220232024-28USA2.3%-2.
98、8%5.9%2.1%0.9%1.7%Europe1.8%-5.8%5.4%3.6%0.7%1.7%Asia Pacific4.4%-1.3%6.9%3.8%4.1%4.7%Japan-0.4%-4.3%2.2%1.0%0.6%1.3%China6.0%2.3%8.5%3.0%5.5%4.6%India4.6%-6.4%9.2%6.9%4.8%6.9%Africa3.9%-1.3%5.7%3.6%2.5%3.3%World2.9%-3.1%6.4%3.3%2.4%3.3%Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|16 IEA.CC BY 4.0.momentum beyond the curre
99、nt release of pent-up demand.Amid a continuing manufacturing and trade slump,with muted global growth weighing on exports,this will be heavily dependent on an ongoing recovery in retail spending.However,an uncertain job market,underwater mortgages and a more risk-averse mindset following three years
100、 of draconian pandemic controls may stand in the way of a lasting rebound in household spending.Chinas other challenges are myriad.Although the real estate sector may have seen the worst of the slump,the large overhang of unsold properties will act as a drag on its recovery,while the escalating US t
101、echnology war underscores rising geopolitical tensions.Chinas growth is projected to increase from 3%during lockdown-hit 2022 to slightly over 5%in 2023,before averaging 4.6%in 2024-28.Indian GDP is projected to expand by 4.8%in 2023,rising to 6.3%in 2024 before recovering to an even stronger 7%in 2
102、025-28.Growth will be buttressed by favourable demographics and an expanding middle class.There are numerous risks to the forecast,predominantly to the downside.Geopolitical risks remain omnipresent,as China and the West grow apart,with a China/Russia/Middle Eastern axis in the process of developing
103、.These will affect energy supply,trade flows and outright prices.Persistently high inflation could lead to further interest rate increases by central banks,which would compound problems for highly indebted countries,stoke social unrest and stunt the economic recovery in high income countries.New vir
104、us mutations could trigger renewed containment measures,limiting mobility and economic activity.Finally,natural disasters and weather-related events affecting economic growth(floods,droughts,wildfires,hurricanes)are rising as the globe continues to warm.Price scenarios see only modest impact on dema
105、nd Besides GDP growth rates,assumptions of future oil prices are a key component of demand estimates,with forecasts sensitive to both the absolute price level and intertemporal changes over the outlook.Oil prices used for the modelling input are based on a spot crude price of about USD 76/bbl for No
106、rth Sea Dated,and we assume this level remains constant in real terms over the forecasting period.In addition to this base case,the table below shows alternative high-and low-price scenarios:High-price scenario:Assumes oil prices increase by 2.5%in real terms per annum,in line with their long-term h
107、istorical pattern.Low-price scenario:Estimates of future spot prices are based on the ICE Brent forward curve(averaging USD 79/bbl in 2023 slowing to USD 67/bbl in 2028).These are then discounted to real terms.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|17 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Impact of alternative oil price forecast scenarios,2
108、023-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The high-price scenario would lower 2028 global oil demand by 430 kb/d.However,this would not cause demand to peak earlier.Conversely,the low-price scenario would raise world oil consumption by 670 kb/d at the end of the forecasting period.Energy transition gathers pace Polici
109、es will reduce road fuel demand and oil use in the power sector The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators,structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the forecast.Road trans
110、port demand will rapidly progress towards a post-pandemic peak of 45.3 mb/d in 2025,only marginally above the level of 2019,before embarking on a gradual decline.Globally,road transport oil demand will be 460 kb/d below 2019 levels by 2028.To achieve clear peaks in transport and overall demand,with
111、swift subsequent reductions in use,further policy and behavioural changes will be needed.Gasoline demand will be disproportionately impacted as EVs progressively replace vehicles with internal combustion engines(ICE).About 80%of the 3 mb/d 2022-28 oil demand growth estimated to be displaced by vehic
112、le electrification will be for gasoline.This means that the fuel is likely to exhibit the earliest and most pronounced peak in demand.Usage will never return to 2019 levels and the post-pandemic peak could come as early as 2023.Following a brief plateau,the decline is forecast to accelerate from 202
113、6 onwards,with 2028 demand 900 kb/d below 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90202320242025202620272028USD/bblLow caseBase caseHigh caseAlternative price scenarios-600-400-2000 200 400 600 800202320242025202620272028Cumulative impact,kb/dPrice scenario impact of global demandOil 2023 Demand PAGE|18 IEA.CC BY 4.0.
114、that of 2019.Total transport demand will plateau in the second half of our forecast period,with its high-water mark expected in 2026 before ebbing gradually as declines in road use outweigh a continued increase in jet and marine fuels consumption.Cumulative transport fuels demand growth,2022-2028 IE
115、A.CC BY 4.0.Efficiency improvements will occur for all fuels,not only road transport fuels,and will have a larger overall impact on oil demand than EVs.Efficiency gains are expected to reduce the growth in oil demand by roughly 790 kb/d per year over the forecast period,for a total of 4.8 mb/d in av
116、oided growth.Total oil demand savings from new EV sales and efficiency improvements over the 2022-28 period will be 7.8 mb/d.While both fuels will experience large gains over the forecast period,gasoil demand(+620 kb/d)will outperform gasoline use(-250 kb/d)to a considerable extent.In addition to th
117、e significance of EVs for gasoline,this is reflective of the relative importance of diesel demand in higher-growth economies.New natural gas and renewable electricity generation capacity will displace fuel oil,gasoil and crude oil consumption in power generation,especially in the Middle East.Several
118、 countries in the region,including Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,and Iraq,have ambitious plans to move away from their dependence on oil-fired power plants,which will have a major impact on their domestic demand by 2028.Lastly,social,political and behavioural changes among consumers will continue to reshape t
119、he growth trajectory for oil demand.While significant efforts are already apparent in a number of countries,stronger policies will be required to put oil demand closer to a more sustainable development pathway towards global climate targets.-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022202320242025202620272028mb/dGa
120、solineGasoilJet/KeroTotal transportRoad transportMarine fuelsAviation fuelsBy product-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022202320242025202620272028By sectorOil 2023 Demand PAGE|19 IEA.CC BY 4.0.EVs and efficiency gains curb road use of oil Road transport fuels,long the backbone of oil demand,will struggle to
121、 surpass their pre-crisis peak as energy efficiency improvements and substitution weigh heavily.Efficiency improvements,the transition to electric vehicles and changes in consumer habits will offset part of the impact of economic growth.Additionally,policy changes mean that an increasing share of ro
122、ad fuel demand will be in the form of biofuels,forecast to rise by 600 kb/d by 2028.New EVs and improved efficiency will avoid 7.8 mb/d of extra oil demand,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.EV sales continue to soar Strong government policy support and a push by the automotive industry to offer more attractiv
123、e models have led to a rapid increase in sales of electric vehicles.Based on figures from the IEAs Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023,EV sales rose from 2 million vehicles in 2018 to 10.8 million in 2022,when one in seven cars sold globally was electric.This trend is set to continue with our proje
124、ctions assuming that by 2028 more than one in four new cars will be an EV,for total sales of 25.9 million.At the start of 2023,there were around 28 million electric cars on the road worldwide.New sales in 2023-24 are expected to exceed this level and by the end of 2028 more than 155 million EVs will
125、 have been sold.This will displace 2.3 mb/d of incremental gasoline use and 630 kb/d of diesel demand during this forecast.More than half of these cars will be sold in China.50 55 60 65 702022202320242025202620272028mb/dTotal transport demandAdditional biofuelsEfficiency savingsEV savingsOil 2023 De
126、mand PAGE|20 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global annual EV sales by country/region,2010-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:EV sales include battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.Source:IEA,Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023.Indeed,this precipitous climb has been principally a Chinese phenomenon.There,electric car s
127、ales reached 6.6 million in 2022,up six-fold compared with 2019.Due to the Covid-19 crisis,the government extended some subsidies for EVs in 2021 and 2022.While these national incentives are now weakening,this should not stop the continued advance of electric vehicles.New model offerings and local m
128、easures in favour of EVs(local subsidies,no city-level purchase limitations)will support sales in the coming years.New sales after 2022 alone will enable China to avoid almost 1 mb/d of gasoline demand growth by 2028.In Europe,electric car sales rose to 2.7 million in 2022.The surge in EVs entering
129、service was supported by tighter emission standards and purchase subsidies in major markets.Recently adopted EU targets call for all new cars and vans to be zero emissions by 2035.In the United States,EV sales were comparatively small,just shy of 1 million last year,but still three times higher than
130、 two years earlier.Strong new tax credits of USD 7 500 per vehicle for consumers as part of the US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)are set to support this momentum and we expect burgeoning sales of 4.8 million by 2028.The Biden Administration has set a goal of making zero emissions vehicles half of new
131、sales by 2030.Efficiency gains lead to a significant reduction in road fuel consumption Efficiency improvements will occur in all transport segments,including road,maritime and aviation.All together,these efficiency gains are expected to reduce growth by roughly 790 kb/d per year over the forecast p
132、eriod,and by 4.8 mb/d in total from 2022 through 2028.0 5 10 15 20 25 30200022202420262028millionsOthersEuropeUSChinaOil 2023 Demand PAGE|21 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The largest gains will occur in the road transport sector,where ICE vehicles will,despite the surge in EV sales,comprise th
133、e majority of vehicles sold throughout the forecast period.Therefore,a continuation of the progress seen in recent years will be essential to constrain demand.Europe is particularly advanced in terms of environmental regulations.While EVs are key to meeting emission standards,efficiency improvements
134、 in ICE vehicles will also contribute.The current EU standard is 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre(g/km)for new passenger cars and has applied to all new cars since 2021.Under plans adopted in March 2023,vehicular CO2 emissions would decline by 55%relative to 2021 by 2030.A substantial share of this tar
135、get will be met by increasing sales of full EVs,but improving efficiency of ICE vehicles and non-plug-in hybrids will also be necessary.Furthermore,the European Union has brought forward proposals to tighten standards for heavy-duty vehicles(HDVs)such as trucks and buses.Notably,these would increase
136、 the desired emissions reduction relative to 2019 from 30%to 45%.In the United States,the Biden Administration raised fuel standards in December 2021,reversing an earlier decision to ease regulations.A March 2022 rule increased industry-wide standards from 2024 onwards,to reach 49 miles per gallon b
137、y 2026,with 8%annual improvements in 2024 and 2025,and 10%in 2026.Subsequent proposals,currently under consideration,would target a CO2 emissions reduction to 73/km by 2028.China and India also have ambitious targets.India wants to achieve 110 g CO2/km for new cars in 2022-23,corresponding to a redu
138、ction of 3%per year in oil consumption.Chinese Phase V passenger car fuel consumption standards,published at the end of 2019,lowered fuel use for new vehicles to 4 litres per 100 kilometres(L/100km)by 2025 from 5 L/100km for 2020 under Phase IV.In 2019,Japan approved a tightening of light vehicle st
139、andards through 2030,requiring fuel consumption of 3.95 L/100 km by 2030,or an improvement of 32%versus average 2016 levels.While strong gains in vehicle efficiency have contributed significantly to mitigating road fuel use,these benefits were dampened by the parallel increase in the sales of SUVs.B
140、y 2022,SUV sales accounted for 46%of total global car and van sales.In 2011,this stood at about 20%.The growth of SUVs continues to be robust in many countries,including the United States,India and across Europe.In some others,most notably China,the share of SUVs is stagnating,mainly driven by the b
141、ig rise of smaller battery-powered electric cars.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|22 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Renewables and gas to cut oil used in Middle Eastern power generation Oil use in power generation has steadily declined in recent years,to an estimated 3.5 mb/d in 2022.Unsurprisingly,given its massive hydrocarbon
142、 resources,the Middle East has the highest volume of oil used for electricity generation globally,at an estimated 1.4 mb/d in 2022.In the same year,Europe used 220 kb/d,North America 390 kb/d,Latin America 350 kb/d,Asia Pacific 750 kb/d,Africa 310 kb/d and Eurasia 110 kb/d.Oil use in power generatio
143、n by region,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Several Middle Eastern countries have plans to reduce or eliminate the use of oil in their power sector over the medium term,largely by way of developing natural gas,nuclear,coal and renewable capacities.Countries may struggle to phase out oil entirely due to the
144、pronounced seasonality of electricity demand,which peaks during the summer.A case in point was the extreme mid-2022 heatwave in the Middle East,which stressed power grids across the Gulf region.In another defining characteristic of 2022,the unprecedented surge in volatility in energy prices in the w
145、ake of Russias invasion of Ukraine made for enormous sudden changes in the relative economics of burning natural gas versus oil.In 2021,Saudi Arabia used 420 kb/d of crude oil,30 kb/d of gasoil and 290 kb/d of fuel oil in electricity generation.These volumes are comparable to pre-pandemic levels.The
146、 country has plans to generate its electricity only from natural gas(50%)and renewables(50%)by 2030,eliminating oil from the power fuel mix.The first of three phases of the Saudi National Renewable Energy Program(NREP)is targeted by the end of 2024(4.87 GW capacity),generating 15.1 TWh and displacin
147、g roughly 70 kb/d of oil,according to Saudi government figures.Saudi 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600North AmericaCentral andSouth AmericaEuropeAfricaMiddle EastEurasiaAsia Pacifickb/d20222028Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|23 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Aramco estimates that substitution by natural gas will eventually dis
148、place 500 kb/d of oil demand,mainly in the power sector.Iraq,too,has ambitious plans that could lead to the displacement of oil in the power sector.In 2020,the country used 140 kb/d of crude oil,30 kb/d of fuel oil and 15 kb/d of gasoil in power generation.The oil and electricity ministries aim to a
149、dd 12 GW of renewable power by 2030.Iraq also plans to add 2.5 Bcf/d gas processing capacity by 2027(in addition to the current 1.5 Bcf/d).The Kurdistan Regional Government(KRG)has started the construction of two large gas pipelines designed to increase the volume of gas available for the power sect
150、or.Kuwait opened its first fixed LNG import facility in mid-2021.The Al Zour LNG terminal is designed to import 22 Mt of LNG per year.Kuwait also plans to develop 3.5 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 and to progressively replace oil-fired capacity with natural gas in the coming years.Overall,we proj
151、ect the use of oil in the power sector in the Middle East to fall by 550 kb/d over the forecast period to 820 kb/d in 2028.More than half(280 kb/d)of this decline will be in direct use of crude oil,with the remaining decrease roughly evenly divided between fuel oil and gasoil.Most regions will maint
152、ain oil-fired capacity for flexibility to meet peak demand.Oil demand in the power sector in other regions will record only minor changes.It is projected to increase marginally in Africa,to decline slightly in North America,Europe,Asia Pacific and Eurasia,and to remain largely unchanged in Latin Ame
153、rica.Fuel oil and gasoil use in power generation appears to have increased in several Asian and European countries in 2022 due to the high price of natural gas.An unusually warm European 2022-23 winter and weaker prices for competing fuels led to a reversal of the trend during the second half of the
154、 year and into 2023.Covid-era behavioural changes alter mobility trends Observed through the narrow frame of oil demand,among the most persistent changes wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic will be those impacting patterns of mobility.Overall activity levels have mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms,e
155、specially the changes resulting from public health regulations,with mobility measures typically rebounding swiftly once restrictions were removed.Nevertheless,some impacts of Covid-19 disruptions to behaviour are likely to be more permanent and the composition of mobility differs from pre-pandemic t
156、rends.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.OECD and non-OECD mobility indexes,March 2020 to October 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Among the more lasting developments is the increasing prevalence of various forms of teleworking and video conferencing at the expense of business travel.Following the onset of the
157、 pandemic,the number of people working at home increased dramatically.The International Labour Organization(ILO)estimated that the share of global workers who performed paid work in their homes more than doubled from 8%in 2019 to 17.5%in 2020.However,this pattern was not evenly distributed across se
158、ctors and countries.In large part,this reflects the fact that some jobs particularly knowledge-intensive service sector jobs are more easily performed remotely than others.We expect this to result in significant geographical differences in teleworking in the future,with the impact on oil demand larg
159、ely concentrated in OECD countries.Working from home remains relatively more common in the United States,where hybrid working has effectively become the new normal.US office occupancy remained around half of pre-pandemic levels in early 2023,compared to about 80%for Europe and 90%for Asia,according
160、to property services firm JLL.Less than half of US companies require employees to be in the office full time.A red-hot job market,with near-record low unemployment,has leveraged employees bargaining power,while relatively long US commutes compared to other countries make for a greater incentive to w
161、ork remotely.This development has caused US work-related mobility to decouple from macroeconomic indicators.Although growth in vehicle miles travelled has lagged national GDP growth for decades,the two moved relatively in tandem in pre-pandemic years,with miles rising 10%between 2012 and 2019,and GD
162、P increasing 17%.Following the pandemic,however,US GDP in 2022 rebounded to 5%above pre-pandemic levels while vehicle miles remained about 1%below 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Index(Q1 2020=100)AmericasEuropeAsiaTotal OECDAsia(ex.China)Mid
163、dle EastAfricaS&C AmericaOverall mobility OECD regions 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Overall mobility non-OECD regionsOil 2023 Demand PAGE|25 IEA.CC BY 4.0.2019 levels.A similar,less pronounced disparity is apparent for total US employment,
164、which has also recovered above 2019 levels.This slowdown in work-related mobility has stymied gasolines demand recovery,reinforcing the ongoing downward pull of vehicle efficiencies and the electrification of driving.US gasoline consumption in 2022 averaged 95%of 2019 levels.Conversely,gasoline dema
165、nd in OECD Europe,where working from home has found less acceptance,has returned to 2019 levels.A recent analysis on the Uptake and Inequality of Telework by think tank Bruegel showed an average of 24%among EU workers teleworking in 2021.However,significant differences existed between the level of r
166、emote working in member states and between different types of jobs.In general,more highly paid jobs tended to have a higher degree of telework.We expect that the impact on oil demand of these trends will gradually ease through 2024 but then plateau for the remainder of the forecast period,falling fr
167、om a peak of around 1 mb/d in 2020 to 400 kb/d over 2025-28.Among those for whom teleworking is a practical option,this would be equivalent to roughly two days per week at home.Estimated teleworking impact on oil demand,2019-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Data from multiple major cities and national governments
168、 reveal that in some cases usage rates on public transport have been particularly slow to recover,even as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed.This was likely driven by health concerns about entering crowded public spaces,as well as by a change in the types of journeys being made.Public transports lac
169、klustre recovery occurred amid a general improvement in mobility statistics,implying that activity has shifted towards other forms.Extensive 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.220022202320242025202620272028mb/dOil 2023 Demand PAGE|26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.data are available for transport in London,based on pass
170、enger declarations by Transport for London(TfL)and UK government traffic camera information.Bus and metro journeys,having fallen to roughly half of 2019 levels in 2020 and 2021,remained 24%below pre-pandemic levels during 2022,a year not affected by lockdown restrictions.Conversely,journeys by autom
171、obile fell less sharply than those by public transport following initial Covid-19 outbreaks,with average 2022 London car traffic settling about 25%above March 2020 levels.This pattern appears to have been replicated elsewhere.According to German Federal Statistics Office data,while ridership recover
172、ed by 29%y-o-y to nearly 10.2 billion,average 2022 rail and bus passenger numbers remained 14%lower than in 2019.Over the same period,long-distance road journeys went up by 2.7%.In a demonstration of the potential for governments to shape these trends,German public transport was heavily subsidised d
173、uring June-August 2022.In these months,long journeys by rail increased by about 40%.China is the key exception to this pattern,as public transport use in Chinese cities rebounded to its pre-pandemic level within weeks of the December 2022 reopening,making for a much faster and more complete recovery
174、 than cities in major Western countries.This disparity means that road fuels(in particular gasoline)received exceptional support in cities that usually rely on public transport.However,we expect this to unwind further over the forecast period,contributing to the weaker outlook for road fuel demand.P
175、etrochemicals power ahead,China takes centre stage The continued expansion of the petrochemical industry and its consumption of feedstocks provide the single largest contribution to oil demand growth over the forecast period.Chemical feedstocks will account for 2.3 mb/d(+390 kb/d per year)or about 4
176、0%,of total oil demand growth from 2022 to 2028.In contrast to all the other major oil demand sectors,petrochemicals performed strongly throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.Between 2019 and 2022,oil products used as a chemical feedstock for light olefins(ethylene and propylene)and aromatics(benzene,tolu
177、ene and xylene)grew by about 1 mb/d.Overall oil demand fell by 860 kb/d in the same period.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|27 IEA.CC BY 4.0.World oil demand and petrochemical sector contribution IEA.CC BY 4.0.Polymers,comprising the largest end use for petrochemicals by volume,are especially concentrated in ev
178、eryday household consumption.As a result,demand for polymers was comparatively insulated from the impact of public health measures and government policies.Furthermore,the Covid-19 public health crises led to an exceptional rise in demand for plastics in disposable medical items and packaging for inc
179、reased home deliveries of meals and consumer goods.During 2021,feedstock requirements surged at their fastest rate since 2010(+860 kb/d,5.9%y-o-y),as manufacturing and construction activity gained momentum and with much of the novel demand of 2020 persisting.An explosive increase in petrochemical ca
180、pacity,especially in China,helped to accommodate this upsurge in demand.The pace of additions hastened in 2022,with the year setting a record for new olefins capacity at slightly over 16 Mt/yr(+7.5%y-o-y).At the same time,growth in demand for petrochemicals slowed as exceptional use subsided and ind
181、ustrial activity slackened(especially in Europe,where producers suffered from elevated energy costs).Global feedstock requirements grew by a comparatively modest 100 kb/d(+0.7%)during 2022 with the slump in operating rates uneven across different regions.OECD European naphtha consumption collapsed b
182、y 13.7%y-o-y,while OECD Asia Oceania saw a fall of 4.6%.By contrast,Chinese naphtha use increased by 15.2%and LPG by 8.9%.Massive Chinese investments reshaping world markets New petrochemical plants are heavily concentrated in China,which will account for 51%of all new olefin capacity and 48%of incr
183、emental oil-based olefins feedstock consumption during the 2022-28 period.Overall naphtha use is set to rise by 1 mb/d from 2022 by 2028(170 kb/d per year)and LPG by 530 kb/d(90 kb/d per year),together accounting for 54%of Chinese oil demand growth.13%14%15%16%17%18%19%0 20 40 60 80 100 2
184、022202420262028%of total demandmb/dTotal naphthademandTotal LPGdemandOther oildemandPetchem%ofdemandOil 2023 Demand PAGE|28 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chinese additions between 2019 and 2025 are set to be larger than the total capacity of existing OECD European and Asia Oceanian petrochemical plants.This will ha
185、ve a major impact on the distribution of petrochemical activity and oil consumption for feedstock throughout our forecast period.Chinas share of global olefins feedstock demand will grow from 14%in 2019 to almost 26%by 2025 and will remain close to this level to 2028.Annual olefins oil-based capacit
186、y change,(primary output),2019-2028 Note:Includes steam cracker(ethylene)and propane dehydrogenation(propylene)capacity.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Prior to 2020,there was little growth in global naphtha feedstock requirements,with total use declining by 280 kb/d from 2017 to 2020.Almost all growth in olefin feed
187、stock consumption over this period was for ethane from NGL extraction(580 kb/d over the same period).However,most new Chinese capacity is coming in the form of naphtha crackers.These,in addition to a handful of other major naphtha cracker developments,will change the products fortunes.Overall,2028 n
188、aphtha demand will be 1.7 mb/d above its pre-pandemic level(+190 kb/d per year),driven by higher demand from chemical plants.Ethane use in steam crackers will increase and approach 1 mb/d(110 kb/d per year)over the same period and the volume of(LPG)used in crackers and propane dehydrogenation(PDH)un
189、its will climb by 600 kb/d(+70 kb/d per year).This means that the rapid decline in naphthas share of olefin feedstock ended before the start of the pandemic and will register a modest recovery by the mid-2020s,before edging downwards again,staying close to 45%of the total.These changes are principal
190、ly the result of the patterns of investment by chemical producers.While Middle East and US plants based on cost-advantaged ethane were emblematic of the previous investment wave(2014-18),the 2020-24 period features a large number of naphtha crackers,integrated to refineries that are optimised to pro
191、duce substantial volumes of petrochemical feedstocks.New-505020202242025202620272028mt/yChinaOtherregionsOtherAsiaMiddleEastOECDAmericasOil 2023 Demand PAGE|29 IEA.CC BY 4.0.ethane-processing units will continue to come into service throughout the forecast period,based on local
192、 NGLs availability,especially in locations like the Middle East and the United States,and on imported US cargoes in China and Western Europe.Annual change in oil-based olefins feedstock use by region and by product,2019-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The addition of such a large amount of capacity in just a few
193、 years will comfortably outpace growth in end-user demand and lead to a shift in patterns of feedstock consumption.The capacity to produce ethylene from steam cracking will grow by an annual average of 7.8 Mt/yr from 2018 to 2028,while we expect ethylene demand to expand by 4.6 Mt/yr over the same p
194、eriod.Much of this new capacity is substituting for imports of base chemicals and commodity polymers,especially in China,meaning that exporters need to compete for alternative markets.Producers in relatively less cost-advantaged areas,particularly Europe and East Asia excluding China,face increasing
195、 pressure requiring cuts in operating rates and raises the spectre of plant closures.Many East Asian producers have either historically exported to China or present attractive targets for displaced exports from other regions.European plants are somewhat older and smaller than in other regions and hi
196、gh energy costs have weakened important segments of downstream demand.They may prove vulnerable to US and Middle Eastern exporters.Petrochemical feedstock consumption began what we expect to be a sustained geographical shift in 2022,with China gaining and most other regions losing share.Petrochemica
197、l feedstock demand will also grow strongly over the forecast period in the Middle East,by an annual average of 70 kb/d,and Eurasia(30 kb/d).Most new plants in these regions will be based on ethane and LPG.In Russia,major new units have been planned,connected to developments in natural gas capacity.-
198、600800kb/dOECD AmMiddle EastOther AsiaOther regionsChina-600800NaphthaLPGEthaneOil 2023 Demand PAGE|30 IEA.CC BY 4.0.However,these face delays related to uncertainty on project financing and the withdrawal of international technology providers.We assume that only some of
199、expected units will be completed during our forecast period,modestly increasing Russias share of global feedstock consumption from 2.4%in 2022 to 2.9%in 2028.Aviation and marine demand growth resumes Jet fuel provides largest increase in product use by 2028,but only surpasses 2019 levels by 2027 Wit
200、h its profound impact on air travel,the Covid-19 pandemic exerted a heavier toll on jet fuel demand than for any other oil product.Global usage collapsed by 45%,to slightly less than 4 mb/d in 2020 and the recovery from these lows made jet fuel dominate demand gains in 2022 and 2023,and will post th
201、e single largest increase by product in the forecast.However,the pace of this bounce is set to slow sharply from 2024 once the resurgence in aviation activity is largely complete and more structural drivers return to the fore.Jet fuel use will go up at an average rate of 150 kb/d a year during 2024-
202、28.Global air traffic,2019-2023(weekly)IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:OAG.Having stabilised at around half of 2019 capacity flown by 2H20,air traffic staged a robust recovery during 2021,2022 and the early part of 2023.This rebound appears to be close to completion.The global number of commercial flights now
203、exceeds equivalent 2019 levels,although measures of total seats and miles flown still lag slightly(as smaller aircraft and shorter routes make up a larger share of the total than previously).On average,2021 jet fuel usage was 63%of 2019 levels.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctN
204、ovDecMillion seats flown200222023Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|31 IEA.CC BY 4.0.According to the latest data,this rose to 76%in 2022 and we expect it to be 91%in 2023,with most of the difference being accounted for by improvements in fuel economy since 2019.Domestic air transportation has recovere
205、d faster than international travel,according to International Air Transport Association(IATA)data.This meant that it rose from 36%of total passenger air traffic in 2019 to 42%by April 2023,having reached 62%in 2021.In April 2023,international revenue passenger kilometres(RPKs)were 16.4%below 2019 le
206、vels,while domestic RPKs were up by 2.9%.The pandemic also played a major role in restructuring the regional distribution of air traffic,which was most constrained where there were the greatest restrictions on travel.As a result,the share of global aviation in the relatively less-impacted Americas r
207、ose to 35.2%in April 2023,according to IATA data,compared with 27.5%in 2019.US domestic travel remains steady and flights between the United States and Latin America have increased.Notably,however,there were severe restrictions on international travel to and from China for 2020-22 and domestic fligh
208、ts in the country during the lockdowns of 2022.With restrictions relaxed in late-2022,Chinese domestic flight numbers rapidly returned to 2021 levels and international flights began a more gradual recovery.International flights involving China and its neighbours now account for the largest incomplet
209、e share of the return to 2019 activity.Since Chinas reopening at the end of 2022,flights to these countries have gradually increased,and we assume that they will return to 2019 levels by 4Q23.This will mark a step change in demand growth from 2024 onwards,with subsequent structural growth highly con
210、centrated in the Asia Pacific region(76%of total 2023-28 jet/kerosene gains)where rising GDP and increasing access to international travel will be sufficient to outweigh improving fuel economy.Commercial aircraft now entering service exhibit significantly improved efficiency compared with those they
211、 replace.For example,the Airbus 320neo has fuel consumption that is 15%lower than the previous A320 model.Boeing 737 MAX increased their fuel efficiency by 20%and larger planes such as Boeing 787 or Airbus A350 by 25%.Combined with the extent to which the global fleet was renewed over the pandemic y
212、ears,this means that jet fuel use is unlikely to surpass its 2019 peak until 2027,when demand will exceed 7.2 mb/d.Environmental regulations and commitments,combined with changing consumer behaviour,will also weigh on demand.Expanding seaborne trade supports marine fuel growth World bunker fuel cons
213、umption is forecast to rise by 300 kb/d by 2028,reaching 4.5 mb/d.Robust growth in trade and seaborne freight will be mitigated by tightening efficiency standards imposed by the IMO.Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|32 IEA.CC BY 4.0.IMO regulations,designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,come into effect in
214、several phases.Phase 1 of the Energy Efficiency Design Index(EEDI),from 2015,required new vessels of the relevant size to produce at least 10%lower CO2 emissions,relative to the IMOs 2008 baseline.From 2020 Phase 2 increased this to 20%and a 30%reduction will be imposed from the start of 2025 in EED
215、I Phase 3.Since these rules apply to new vessels,they will take effect gradually as the fleet expands and older vessels are scrapped.Incorporating fleet composition data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD),we forecast that the average gain in fuel efficiency of global
216、 shipping could approach 10%during the forecast period,depending on the rate of replacement of older,less-efficient vessels.International marine bunker demand impact of efficiency gains,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Based on our macroeconomic assumptions and UNCTADs forecasts,we expect that underlying glo
217、bal demand for seaborne freight will grow by an average of almost 3%per year from 2022 to 2028.This follows a slight increase over the pandemic years(averaging just over 1%per year).In 2020 and 2021,relatively strong demand for moving manufactured goods from exporting regions,especially East Asia,to
218、 consumers elsewhere,particularly North America and Europe,and raw materials to manufacturing centres supported global shipping.A slowdown in trade and changes in the size and composition of the global commercial fleet,combined with the new IMO rules,will limit average marine bunker consumption grow
219、th to 1.2%per year from 2022-28(300 kb/d overall).Without the efficiency improvements mandated by IMO efficiency standards,projected 2028 demand would be more than 400 kb/d higher in 2028.3.03.54.04.55.05.520022202320242025202620272028mb/dBunkersforecastBunkers,withoutefficiencygainsOil 2
220、023 Demand PAGE|33 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Demand developments by region Asia Pacific provides 90%of global demand growth By far,the largest growth in oil demand will occur in Asia Pacific,amounting to 5.5 mb/d for 2022-28.Regional growth will be supported by increased demand for naphtha and LPG/ethane(+2.2 m
221、b/d),jet/kerosene(+1.3 mb/d)and gasoil(+1.2 mb/d).Demand in Africa,Eurasia,the Middle East and Latin America will also rise strongly over the forecast period.Combined 2028 oil use in these regions will increase by 1.9 mb/d versus 2022 levels.Petrochemical demand is projected to play a significant ro
222、le in Middle Eastern growth.North American demand,by contrast,will plateau in 2023 at 24.7 mb/d,and subsequently decline by 240 kb/d per year on average through 2028.European oil demand,averaging 14.9 mb/d in 2022,will be buttressed by the increase in jet fuel consumption through 2024 before startin
223、g an overall decline averaging 120 kb/d annually thereafter.Neither North America nor Europe will return to their 2019 levels.Global cumulative oil demand growth by region,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.North American,European oil demand plateaus in 2023-2024,then contracts Although oil demand rose by a co
224、mbined 1 mb/d in 2022,growth in Europe and North America will slow to a halt in 2023-24 as higher energy efficiency in the -2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0North America S&C AmericaEuropeAfricaMiddle EastEurasiaAsia Pacificmb/dOil 2023 Demand PAGE|34 IEA.CC BY 4.0.transport sector,penetration of EVs and
225、 substitution by other energies curb fuel use.Other factors,such as teleworking and less frequent business travel,will also contribute.Oil demand by product(mb/d):North America,2019-2028 North American demand is projected to grow by 100 kb/d in 2023 and subsequently decline.Oil demand will shrink by
226、 230 kb/d per year on average over the 2024-28 period on improved fuel economies in passenger cars supported by government policies.Ethane demand,which grew quickly until 2022,will see this trend resume after 2026 as new capacity comes online.Neither the United States,Canada nor Mexico will see oil
227、demand return to pre-Covid levels.Additionally,demand in each of the three countries reaches a post-pandemic peak in 2023.North America cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Following a projected increase of 50 kb/d in 2023,European oil consumption is expected to decline by
228、 an average of 120 kb/d per year from 2024.By 2028,European oil demand will be 1.4 mb/d below its 2019 level.Gasoil use is seen falling from 2022 onwards,while gasoline growth begins to decline from 2023 as rising EV sales and efficiencies undermine demand.20022202320242025202620272028202
229、2-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane3.43.53.63.83.83.73.73.73.73.80.1%0.0Naphtha0.30.30.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.7%0.0Gasoline10.99.510.310.310.410.310.19.89.69.3-1.7%-1.0Jet/Kerosene2.01.21.51.81.91.91.92.02.02.01.6%0.2Gasoil/Diesel5.14.74.95.05.04.94.94.94.84.8-0.8%-0.2Residual fuel oil0.50.40.
230、50.60.50.50.50.50.50.5-1.7%-0.1Other products2.82.62.82.92.92.92.92.92.92.90.2%0.0Total products25.022.123.924.624.724.524.324.023.823.5-0.8%-1.1Annual change0.0-2.91.80.70.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.2-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4 Lpg and naphthaGasolineJet keroseneGasoilOthermb/dOil 2023 Demand PAGE|3
231、5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Europe,2019-2028 The drop in gasoil demand is larger than the reduction in gasoline due to efforts to displace heating oil and a shift to gasoline engine cars from diesel.The share of gasoline cars in total ICE car sales grew from 63%in 2020 to 69%in 2022,
232、while diesels share went down from 37%to 31%,according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.The total gasoil fleet plateaued at 48%in 2018 and should shrink to 35%by 2028.Jet fuel demand grows through the end of the forecast period,approaching but not attaining pre-Covid levels.Gasol
233、ine versus diesel in European ICE car fleet,2006-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In 2028,European and North American oil demand will be 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d lower than in 2019,respectively.200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane1.31.21.21.11.21.21.21.21.21.21.2%0.1Nap
234、htha1.11.11.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.0-0.3%0.0Gasoline2.32.02.22.32.32.32.22.22.12.1-1.3%-0.2Jet/Kerosene1.60.80.91.31.51.51.51.61.61.63.0%0.3Gasoil/Diesel7.16.56.86.86.76.56.46.36.26.1-1.9%-0.7Residual fuel oil1.00.80.91.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.0%0.0Other products1.41.41.31.31.31.31.31.31.41.40.4%0.0Total
235、 products15.713.714.514.914.914.814.714.614.514.3-0.6%-0.5Annual change0.0-2.00.80.40.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.220%30%40%50%60%70%80%20062008200022202420262028GasolineDieselOil 2023 Demand PAGE|36 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europe cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.A
236、sia and most emerging economies to post strong growth In Asia Pacific(including OECD Asia Oceania),demand will rise by 5.5 mb/d during 2022-28,representing about 90%of the total world growth.As in other regions,transport fuels lead the gains in the initial stages of the recovery.Overall demand first
237、 exceeds its pre-pandemic level in 2023.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Asia Pacific,2019-2028 China will continue to account for around one-sixth of world oil demand and half of global oil consumption growth,as its use expands by 2.9 mb/d between 2022 and 2028.However,this increase is heavily front-loa
238、ded:after a massive 1.5 mb/d rebound post-lockdowns in 2023,oil demand growth decelerates to roughly 290 kb/d y-o-y on average from 2024 to 2028.This slowdown corresponds with Chinas economy proceeding along a path of structurally lower GDP growth as its era of double-digit economic expansion now ha
239、ving conclusively ended.Its present target of 5%per year stands in marked -0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.4 Lpg and naphthaGasolineJet keroseneGasoilOthermb/d200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane4.44.44.64.95.15.25.45.55.65.72.5%0.8Naphtha4.54.54.84.95.25.55.86.
240、06.16.34.2%1.4Gasoline7.57.07.57.57.87.98.08.07.97.91.0%0.4Jet/Kerosene2.91.91.81.92.52.82.93.03.13.29.2%1.3Gasoil/Diesel9.38.69.09.49.79.910.110.210.410.52.0%1.2Residual fuel oil2.42.42.52.62.72.72.72.72.72.71.0%0.2Other products4.95.35.44.84.84.84.94.95.05.00.9%0.3Total products35.934.035.735.837.
241、838.839.740.340.941.32.4%5.5Annual change0.5-1.91.70.22.01.00.90.70.50.5Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|37 IEA.CC BY 4.0.contrast to the average 9%since the country embarked on its shift from a planned to a market economy in 1978.GDP growth is set to decelerate further towards 4%at the end of the forecast peri
242、od.Oil demand by product(mb/d):China,2019-2028 Demographics are at the heart of this downturn.Chinas population declined in 2022 after decades of slowing birth rates.This development shrank the vast labour pool underlying the low-cost manufacturing model that fuelled the 1990-2010 economic boom.Prop
243、elled by debt-fuelled infrastructure investment,the country is still coming to terms with the eras legacy of overleveraged corporations and local governments,misallocated capital,and a massive property slump.China cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Beijings attempts to p
244、ivot from an economic model driven by construction and manufacturing to one led by services emerged in 2023 as consumption of the retail-oriented fuels gasoline and jet/kerosene benefits from rebounding mobility.By contrast,gasoil use is depressed by a global manufacturing slump.In addition,the poli
245、cy shift is reflected in changes in the demand product mix over the entire forecast period.Gasoil,linked to industrial use,will see its share drop by two 200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane1.81.81.92.12.32.42.52.52.62.63.8%0.5Naphtha1.41.51.61.82.12.32
246、.62.82.82.87.8%1.0Gasoline3.43.23.53.43.73.73.73.63.63.50.8%0.2Jet/Kerosene0.90.80.80.60.91.01.11.11.21.213.9%0.7Gasoil/Diesel3.23.03.23.33.63.63.73.73.73.71.8%0.4Residual fuel oil0.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.61.2%0.0Other products3.03.53.52.92.92.92.92.93.03.00.6%0.1Total products14.114.315.114.716
247、.116.617.017.317.517.63.1%2.9Annual change0.50.10.8-0.41.50.50.40.30.10.10.00.51.01.52.0 Lpg and naphthaGasolineJet keroseneGasoilOthermb/dOil 2023 Demand PAGE|38 IEA.CC BY 4.0.percentage points to 21%between 2022 and 2028,while retail-driven jet/kerosene will rise by three points to 7%.Conversely,g
248、asolines share will fall by 3%to 20%as vehicle electrification outweighs the 2023 post-lockdown release of pent-up travel demand.Lastly,the petrochemical sector will see the largest relative increase,as LPG/naphthas share rises by four percentage points to 31%.The sector benefits from a policy prior
249、itisation of economic self-sufficiency amid escalating geopolitical tensions,with China aiming to reduce its reliance on polymer imports by greatly expanding its petrochemical capacity.Oil demand by product(mb/d):India,2019-2028 India is set to overtake China in terms of global y-o-y oil demand grow
250、th in 2027.The fastest-growing economy in the world,with GDP growth averaging 6.9%for 2024-2028,is aided by benign demographics.India surpassed China to become the worlds most populous country in 2023.Although its rate of expansion has been slowing for decades,population growth will likely not peak
251、until 2065.Further propelled by trends such as urbanisation,industrialisation,and the emergence of a wealthier middle-class keen for mobility and tourism,Indian oil demand will grow by more than 1 mb/d between 2022 and 2028.Gasoil,the main fuel by far,will see its share of the product mix climb from
252、 32%to 35%over the forecast period.Activity and trade in the rest of Southeast Asia are set to benefit from Indias upbeat economic prospects.Malaysia and Indonesia,key Indian trading partners,are seeing similar increases in oil consumption to Indias,of about 20%between 2022 and 2028.20022
253、2023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane0.80.90.90.90.91.01.01.01.01.02.1%0.1Naphtha0.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.44.3%0.1Gasoline0.70.70.80.90.90.91.01.01.01.02.2%0.1Jet/Kerosene0.20.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.26.3%0.1Gasoil/Diesel1.61.51.51.71.81.91.92.02.12.24.3%0.5Residual
254、 fuel oil0.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.6%0.0Other products1.11.01.01.11.11.21.21.21.21.31.6%0.1Total products5.04.64.95.35.55.65.86.06.16.33.0%1.0Annual change0.0-0.40.30.40.20.20.20.10.20.2Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|39 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India cumulative oil demand growth by product,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.
255、Growth will remain muted in Central and South America amid slowing economic activity,with Brazil,where annual demand growth decelerates from around 70 kb/d in 2022-24 to 20 kb/d in 2028 a case in point.GDP growth in Brazil,responsible for almost half of Latin American oil demand,will recover somewha
256、t from anaemic levels in 2023 towards 2%at the end of the forecasting period.Still,the countrys economic performance is relatively lacklustre,mirroring the entire region,especially in comparison to Africa and Asia.Low productivity and high unemployment make for a subdued economic outlook,while eleva
257、ted inflation and strained public finances limit the scope for monetary or fiscal stimulus.We project total Central and South America demand to be 640 kb/d above 2022 levels by 2028.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Central and South America,2019-2028 African oil demand in 2028 will be 530 kb/d higher tha
258、n in 2022 as GDP growth,buttressed by the continents rapidly expanding population,exceeds 3%on average over the forecast period.This results in steady gains inroad transport fuels.Africas oil use is heavily skewed towards gasoil(making up 40%of total consumption)as use of diesel generators remains w
259、idespread amid limited access to reliable electricity grids.Among the refined products,LPG will lead 0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6 Lpg and naphthaGasolineJet keroseneGasoilOthermb/d200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane0.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.71.6%0.1Naphtha
260、0.20.10.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.1%0.0Gasoline2.01.71.92.02.02.02.12.12.12.11.5%0.2Jet/Kerosene0.30.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.34.1%0.1Gasoil/Diesel2.32.12.32.42.42.52.52.52.62.61.4%0.2Residual fuel oil0.50.40.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.61.9%0.1Other products0.70.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.71.0%0.0Total products
261、6.75.86.46.66.76.86.97.07.17.21.5%0.6Annual change0.0-0.90.60.20.10.10.10.10.10.1Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|40 IEA.CC BY 4.0.consumption growth at 4.7%per year.Urbanisation underpins this robust increase of 150 kb/d over the 2022-28 period,largely due to more widespread use of propane and butane in cookin
262、g at the expense of traditional biomass.This switch is aided by government policies that incentivise the use of LPG,a clean cooking fuel.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Africa,2019-2028 Petrochemicals drive growth in the Middle East and Eurasia Oil demand in the Middle East will benefit from growth in t
263、he petrochemical sector,with LPG/ethane and naphtha use increasing by 600 kb/d versus 2022 levels.Gasoline demand is also projected to post strong gains of 170 kb/d over the period,reflecting the regions expanding population and comparably limited fuel efficiency gains.However,we expect overall cons
264、umption to be partially offset by plans to switch to natural gas and renewables in the power sector,which will affect direct crude burn,gasoil,and fuel oil use.Middle Eastern demand is forecast to increase by 720 kb/d in 2028 versus 2022 levels.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Middle East,2019-2028 Final
265、ly,Eurasian oil use is expected to finish the forecast period 140 kb/d above 2022,with petrochemicals being the main driver of growth.This will occur despite a contraction in Russia,where 2028 demand will be about 3%below 2022s level.200222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28
266、 GrowthLPG/Ethane0.40.40.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.64.7%0.1Naphtha0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.6%0.0Gasoline1.21.11.21.21.21.21.21.21.31.31.1%0.1Jet/Kerosene0.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.34.2%0.1Gasoil/Diesel1.71.51.61.71.71.71.71.81.81.81.6%0.2Residual fuel oil0.30.20.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.42.0%0.0Othe
267、r products0.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.31.5%0.0Total products4.13.84.04.24.34.44.54.64.74.82.0%0.5Annual change0.0-0.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.22420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane2.22.22.22.22.32.32.42.52.62.73.4%0.5Naphtha0.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.44
268、.8%0.1Gasoline1.71.51.61.71.81.81.81.91.91.91.5%0.2Jet/Kerosene0.60.30.30.50.50.50.60.60.60.63.3%0.1Gasoil/Diesel1.71.51.61.71.71.71.81.81.81.81.1%0.1Residual fuel oil1.31.21.31.41.41.41.41.41.31.3-0.6%-0.1Other products1.11.11.11.21.21.21.21.11.01.0-3.2%-0.2Total products8.88.18.59.09.29.39.49.69.7
269、9.81.3%0.7Annual change0.0-0.80.40.60.20.10.10.20.10.1Oil 2023 Demand PAGE|41 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The countrys GDP growth averages well below 1%between 2024-28,with economic progress suffering in the face of sanctions and major petrochemical projects on hold.Oil demand by product(mb/d):Eurasia,2019-2028 2
270、00222023202420252026202720282022-28 Growth Rate2022-28 GrowthLPG/Ethane0.80.90.91.00.91.01.01.01.01.11.6%0.1Naphtha0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.30.34.0%0.1Gasoline1.01.01.11.11.11.11.11.21.21.21.1%0.1Jet/Kerosene0.30.20.30.20.20.20.20.20.20.2-1.1%0.0Gasoil/Diesel1.21.11.21.31.31.31.21.21.21.
271、2-1.0%-0.1Residual fuel oil0.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1%0.0Other products0.60.60.70.70.60.60.60.60.70.7-0.2%0.0Total products4.34.24.54.64.64.64.64.74.74.70.5%0.1Annual change0.0-0.10.30.10.00.00.00.10.10.0Oil 2023 Supply PAGE|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Supply Global summary Capacity building eases as e
272、nergy transition accelerates An expansion in global oil production capacity,dominated by the United States and other producers in the Americas,is set to moderate progressively over the medium term.However,the gains still keep up with the slower pace of projected demand growth over the 2023-28 foreca
273、st period.The worlds total supply capacity is forecast to post a net increase of 5.9 mb/d to 111 mb/d by 2028,but a marked slowdown in US additions sees overall global capacity growth easing annually from an average 1.9 mb/d in 2022-23 to just 300 kb/d by the end of the forecast.The broad decelerati
274、on in production capacity building largely reflects the global pivot towards cleaner energy and a corresponding weaker demand outlook.This creates a spare capacity cushion of an average 4.1 mb/d,concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE,which should help ensure that world markets are adequately suppl
275、ied throughout the medium term.Global oil supply capacity and demand forecast,year-on-year change,2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Assumes Iran and Russia remain under sanctions.Producers outside the OPEC+alliance(non-OPEC+)dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,with a net 5.1 mb/d supply boost,o
276、r 86%of the total increase.The United States alone accounts for half the non-OPEC+growth,while Brazil and Guyana contribute an additional 1.9 mb/d in Latin America.-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.52022202320242025202620272028mb/d US Non-OPEC+Latam Other Non-OPEC+Saudi Arabia UAE Other OPEC+DemandOil 2023 Suppl
277、y PAGE|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Saudi Arabia and the UAE lead the OPEC+capacity building effort,while African and Asian members struggle with continuing declines.These Middle East heavyweights are boosting capacity now in anticipation of higher long-term demand for their barrels.Overall capacity from the 2
278、3 members in the OPEC+alliance rises by 800 kb/d,which leaves a spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d.The outlook for Russia is clouded by the current geopolitical situation,but we expect capacity to fall as sanctions limit its ability to export,forcing some production to be shut in.Longer ter
279、m,the departure of Western companies in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine may also curb capacity growth due to project delays stemming from a lack of technology and equipment.OPEC+spare crude oil production capacity IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Assumes Iran and Russia remain under sanctions.Russia added
280、 from 2022 onwards.As for investment,global upstream capital expenditures is set to rise by USD 54 billion to USD 528 billion in 2023,the highest since 2015.Industry investment in giant projects has slowed sharply amid the shift towards a lower carbon future.Our analysis shows companies are targetin
281、g smaller,short-cycle projects and select oil field developments in the Americas and Middle East.These expansion plans tend to be lower cost and low-carbon projects with shorter payback periods as companies aim to avert the potential for stranded assets amid increased environmental,social and govern
282、ance(ESG)pressures and expanding climate initiatives.Global upstream oil Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions are forecast to drop 11%from 2022 to 2028,while emissions intensity falls by 15%given currently Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS)and where growth occurs.0 2 4 6 8 0021202220232
283、0242025202620272028mb/d Off market dueto sanctions Others UAE Saudi ArabiaOil 2023 Supply PAGE|44 I EA.CC BY 4.0.How green is the growth?Oil and gas operations currently account for 15%of the worlds energy-related emissions and the industry is under pressure to play a bigger role in energy transitio
284、ns.Less than 5%of oil and gas production has 2030 targets that align with the IEAs NZE Scenario,according to a new IEA report,Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Net Zero Transitions.Over our six-year forecast,the worlds oil production is expected to grow by 5.8 mb/d while the Scope 1 and 2 emi
285、ssions intensity of global upstream oil operations is set to fall by around 15%,leading to an absolute reduction in emissions of 11%.Regional upstream oil production Scope 1 and 2 emissions in 2022 and 2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0 The United States,the worlds top oil producer,also accounts for the greatest sh
286、are of emissions from oil operations.Last year it accounted for 16%of global Scope 1 and 2 upstream emissions and 19%of supply.The Biden Administration has put climate action at the top of its agenda with the US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and is enforcing policies to mitigate methane emissions,redu
287、ce flaring and increase the use of carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS).As a result,we estimate that US upstream oil emissions will drop 40%even as production grows by 13%over the forecast period,mainly through reductions in methane emissions.The Middle East,home to 33%of the worlds current
288、supply and 26%of upstream oil emissions,is forecast to produce 7%more oil in 2028 while generating 4%less emissions.While showing signs of progress,some of the regions producers such as Iran,Iraq and Qatar have more room to improve than others.In the UAE,the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co(Adnoc)has alrea
289、dy committed to a methane intensity of 0.15%by 2025 and to reduce its greenhouse gas(GHG)intensity by 25%by 2030.Saudi Aramco has an extensive leak detection and repair(LDAR)14%9%17%1%26%24%9%AfricaAsiaCaspianEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth America14%10%17%1%29%18%11%20222.2 GtCO2-eq20282.0 GtCO
290、2-eqOil 2023 Supply PAGE|45 I EA.CC BY 4.0.programme that has kept its methane emissions among the lowest in the industry and has a master gas capture system that has led to very high flaring efficiencies.North America leads in upstream oil Scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions IEA.CC BY 4.0 Tackling S
291、cope 1 and 2 emissions from oil and gas operations is one of the most viable and lowest cost options to reduce total GHG emissions to 2030.Curbing methane emissions from upstream operations represents one of the best opportunities given the large scope for cost-effective abatement through policies a
292、imed at LDAR and stricter equipment design.Limiting non-emergency flaring and electrifying operations can also play large roles in reducing emissions.The exact path of emissions reductions will depend on policy decisions and industry responsiveness.Yet,the decarbonisation of oil and gas operations i
293、s needed and must be part of energy transitions.The industry also needs to adopt a consistent approach to monitor,report and verify emissions from its activities based on robust measurements to build public confidence in actions being taken.Global oil supply growth concentrated in the Americas The o
294、utlook for actual supply growth,as opposed to capacity,shows the United States,along with Brazil and Guyana,dominating gains,accounting for 80%of the increase over the forecast period.To match our projected oil demand growth over the next six years,an increase of 5.8 mb/d would be required for suppl
295、y to reach 105.7 mb/d by 2028.Under this forecast,the United States alone provides nearly 45%of the total rise while the Middle East accounts for just over 40%.Collectively,OPEC+contributes 12%of the growth as declines from Russia and African members temper gains from Middle East countries.60 70 80
296、90 100 110 202620282022=100AfricaAsiaCaspianEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth AmericaRelative changes in emissions0 20 40 60 80 100 120 20262028Emission intensitykg-CO2/bblOil 2023 Supply PAGE|46 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Driven by the United States and other countries in the Americas,w
297、orld oil production will overtake pre-Covid-19 levels this year and continue its upward trajectory in the medium term.The United States,Brazil and Canada are all forecast to pump at unprecedented rates this year and the trio is expected to set fresh records through 2028.Qatar hits its highest ever o
298、utput towards the end of the medium-term period.Saudi Arabia and the UAE,constrained for now by OPEC+quota cuts that came into effect from November 2022 and voluntary curbs from May 2023 that are due to run through 2024,are expected to produce at historical highs in the later years of the forecast.R
299、ussia,under the weight of sanctions,posts the biggest loss over the six-year period,while underinvestment leads to notable declines in Mexico and Angola.Oil supply changes for select countries from 2022-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Assumes Russia and Iran remain under sanctions.Supply in 2023 is forecast
300、 to rise by 1.4 mb/d to reach a record-high annual average of 101.3 mb/d.But that is a sharp slowdown from growth of 4.5 mb/d in 2022,which was dominated by the OPEC+alliance as it phased out historic 2020 cutbacks.By 2028,the supply expansion edges down to just 390 kb/d in line with a deceleration
301、in oil demand due to continued progress in energy efficiency and the uptake of electric vehicles.The slowdown in US growth will enable producers from the Middle East led by Saudi Arabia,Iraq and the UAE to add barrels to meet demand growth.As a result,market share from the region rises to 32%in 2028
302、 from 30%in 2023.Given current investment and market trends,the Middle Easts share of world oil production looks set to increase over the longer term.99.9105.70.30.50.72.61.00.90.80.61.596100104108mb/dOil 2023 Supply PAGE|47 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Middle East regains market share over the medium term IEA.CC
303、 BY 4.0.Note:Assumes Russia and Iran remain under sanctions.Investment and exploration Global spending recalibrates as demand growth slows Global upstream oil and gas investment,upended by Covid-19 and lingering uncertainty due to the acceleration of energy transitions,is set to increase by around 1
304、1%in 2023 to an estimated USD 528 billion,compared with USD 401 billion in 2021 and USD 474 billion in 2022(see the IEAs 2023 World Energy Investment report).Upstream investment plans,in real terms,are 47%below 2014.Years of efficiency gains,cost controls and capital discipline,punctuated by measure
305、s taken during the pandemic-induced balance sheet crisis,have reduced lifting costs and wellhead breakeven prices.However,tightening monetary policy and an ongoing labour shortage,higher rig rates and material costs are challenging these hard-won gains with increasing cost pressures.The IEA Global U
306、pstream Cost Index rose 22%in 2022 compared with 2020,and the IEA US Shale Cost Index surged 38%.However,global and US development costs remain 15%and 5%lower than the highs of 2014,respectively.28%30%32%34%36%38%40%0 20 40 60 80 100 2020202242025202620272028mb/d Middle East Re
307、st of world%MarketshareOil 2023 Supply PAGE|48 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Global oil and gas upstream capital spending IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on company reports.National oil companies(NOCs)invested 14%more in 2022,overtaking the 2019 level,driven primarily by capacity building efforts in Saudi
308、Arabia and the UAE.Saudi Aramco raised its upstream spending by about 24%to USD 29 billion and plans further increases to boost its crude oil capacity to 13 mb/d by 2027.The UAEs Adnoc plans to spend USD 150 billion over the next five years.Oil and gas capital spending by selected companies IEA.CC B
309、Y 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on company reports.Major companies include BP,Chevron,Conoco Phillips,Eni,ExxonMobil,Shell and TotalEnergies.US independent companies include 18 selected companies.While the absolute level of spend in the Middle East has recovered to previous highs,most of the upstrea
310、m investment increases in 2022 were for light tight oil 0 200 400 600 8001 0001 200200020202120222023EUSD billionActualGuidanceReal(USD 2022)0 5 10 15 20 250 20 40 60 80 2020202120222023mboe/dUSD billionsMajor E&P companiesGuidanceActualProduction 0 5 10 15 20 250 20
311、 40 60 80 2020202120222023mboe/dUSD billionsUS independent E&P companiesOil 2023 Supply PAGE|49 I EA.CC BY 4.0.(LTO),with a select group of US independent exploration and production(E&P)companies raising Capex by about 40%.US independents are expected to spend more in 2023 but continued c
312、apital discipline and investor-orientated policies will keep their Capex below 2019 levels.Upstream capital expenditures from the majors,which includes BP,Chevron,Conoco Phillips,Eni,ExxonMobil,Shell and TotalEnergies,climbed by USD 14 billion in 2022 after posting declines in 2020-21.Project delays
313、 and increased capital efficiencies drove the lower-than-expected spending by the peer group in the previous year.Capex guidance for 2023 indicates continued modest increases with similar corporate allocations between segments(broadly speaking,as upstream,downstream and new energies).Conventional di
314、scoveries slow as exploration bifurcates In 2022,improvements in oil market conditions led to the sanctioning of projects that are expected to add 1.6 mb/d to global production by 2028.Brazil accounts for 20%of the sanctioned volumes,while the United States and Guyana each contribute 14%and Saudi Ar
315、abia provides 12%.The Brazilian gains come primarily from Mero and Bzios,two large multi-phase projects eventually comprised of 15 floating production storage and offloading vessels(FPSOs)between them.In Guyana,the ExxonMobil-led project will commission four new FPSOs adding close to 800 kb/d of out
316、put.Projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico(GoM)and the Pikka project in Alaska support the US gains.Conventional production additions by sanction year IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Expected production by year based on sanctioned projects.Source:IEA analysis based on Rystad Energy UCube data.0 2 4 6 8 1020182
317、0202022202420262028mb/d202220218Oil 2023 Supply PAGE|50 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The investment cuts affected exploration spend more acutely than other business segments.As a result,conventional oil discoveries in 2021 fell to their lowest since 2016,with less than 5 billion barrels found nearly ma
318、tching a 50-year low and half the annual average seen over the previous decade,according to Rystad Energy.In 2022,discoveries recovered marginally,to 6 billion barrels,but are still a far cry from historical averages.The effects of lower exploration spend on global supply output have been muted over
319、 the past decade as the growth of non-conventional production accounting for 130%of the worlds total growth over the period more than offsets declines in conventional oil production.Moving forward,it is unclear how long the shale patch can bolster growth.As observed in 2022,US LTOs price responsiven
320、ess was relatively muted compared to the last decade(see box,“Shale growth at risk from lower prices,higher costs”).Additionally,new reserve additions in shale have slowed considerably from a massive 10-year average reserve replacement ratio(RRR)of 1580%in the 2000s to the latest five-year average R
321、RR of 33%,leading to inventory questions in key basins.We do not see this changing over the medium term as shale loses its swing producer status.Conventional discoveries have slowed markedly over the last decade IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on Rystad Energy UCube data.Global conventional
322、oil supply peaked in 2016 as shale production moved apace.The global five-year(2018-22)RRR for oil is 50%having steadily declined from almost 100%a decade ago.Conventional resource discoveries from exploration have averaged 7.5 billion barrels a year for the last decade,far short of the approximatel
323、y 27 billion barrels of conventional supply last year.This decline has 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 1051990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025mb/d ConventionalOther(LTO,NGLs and non-conventional)World oil supply0601201800 5 10 15 20 25 302005201020152020Bbbl Australia Asia Middle East Africa N.America S.Amer
324、ica Europe Russia Expl CapexConventional discoveries and exploration spendUSD BillionOil 2023 Supply PAGE|51 I EA.CC BY 4.0.been due to lower exploration budgets and reduced risk profiles.The decline in resource additions has spared no region over the last decade.In the coming years we expect explor
325、ation spending to be divided between high-impact wells in hot spots and infrastructure-led exploration(ILX).High activity regions currently include Namibia,Suriname and Guyana while ILX locations are in more established areas like US GoM,the North Sea and China.ExxonMobil announced seven discoveries
326、 in 2021 and nine in 2022 in Guyana.In neighbouring Suriname,TotalEnergies and APA Corporation struck commercial volumes in Block 58 at Sapakara South in 2021 and Krabdagu in 2022.Petrobras will lead in Brazils frontier regions,including the northern Equatorial Margin in the coming years,attempting
327、to build on their success seen in the Santos Basin.Parts of western Africa have also garnered renewed interest after Enis Baleine success offshore Cote dIvoire in 2021 and the massive multibillion barrels discoveries off the coast of Namibia by Shell and TotalEnergies last year.Infrastructure-led ex
328、ploration efforts tend to be shorter-cycle and do not need to be as large as standalone projects to proceed.BPs recent Gulf of Mexico Argos tieback to Mad Dog 2 and Equinors Fenja project in the Norwegian Sea are examples of successful ILX projects that have utilised existing infrastructure to reduc
329、e the cost and carbon footprint of bringing new resources online.OPEC+supply Middle East drives modest OPEC+increase OPEC+oil supply,including condensates and natural gas liquids(NGLs),is forecast to grow by just 690 kb/d over the six-year period,with the Middle East,led by Saudi Arabia,along with K
330、azakhstan more than offsetting losses largely from Russia,Mexico and Angola.This assumes that from 2025,supply from core Gulf producers rises or falls proportionally in line with the call on OPEC crude oil.Together with Russia,these Middle East countries form the backbone of the OPEC+alliance that p
331、rovides around half the worlds supply of oil.In 2022,the blocs output of total oil,including condensates and NGLs,soared by 3.1 mb/d to an average 52.1 mb/d as it phased out record 2020 cuts.This year could see a decline of 470 kb/d,with Russia under the weight of sanctions and Middle East producers
332、,restricted by extra OPEC+cuts that are due to run through 2024,all pumping less.The 23-member alliance agreed to reduce supply in late 2022 to support the market as the economic outlook worsened,pressuring prices.Output dropped further in May 2023 after a new round of voluntary cuts announced by se
333、lect countries in April took effect.In early June,the bloc extended its output reduction along with voluntary cuts through 2024.Oil 2023 Supply PAGE|52 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Growth from the bloc is expected to return from 2025 onwards albeit at a relatively modest average rate as the call on OPEC crude rises by 1.1 mb/d over the 2025-28 period due to slowing demand and a deceleration in non-OPEC+output.S