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1、IBM Institute for Business Value|Research InsightsTelecom 2030Dial in for a decade of opportunity2IBM helps communications service providers unlock new revenue potential through business and delivery transformation driven by hybrid cloud and AI-first approaches across the value chain.Our solutions h
2、elp optimize network operations,enable differentiated experiences across customers,employees,the edge,and beyond,and fortify cybersecurity.For more information,visit: IBM can help1ForewordAs 2030 fast approaches,the telecommunications industry is in the midst of a transformative shift to power an in
3、creasingly interconnected world.What once seemed possible only in the realm of science fiction has become a realityfrom smart cities to autonomous vehicles,augmented healthcare to artificial intelligencewith connectivity at the heart of it all.As technology advances,the need for seamless,high-speed,
4、and reliable networks has never been more critical.Equally important is ensuring that no one is left behind.GSMA research shows that countries with higher levels of mobile connectivity have achieved greater progress toward meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.While 57%of the worl
5、d is now using mobile internet,there is much work to be done to close the digital divide.Leaving no one behind is both a moral and a business imperative,with 3.4 billion new customers waiting to come online.Widespread 5G deployments will be essential to providing the faster speeds,lower latencies,en
6、hanced capabilities,and network capacity required by modern applications.Momentum is growing,with operators deploying in new geographies such as Sub-Saharan Africa,Latin America,and Eurasia.In fact,GSMA Intelligence estimates that by 2030 the share of 5G connections from emerging markets,including C
7、hina,will reach almost 50%,and globally 5G connections will more than triple to 5.1 billion by Q1 of that year.Are communication service providers(CSPs)ready to seize this unique moment in time?While the potential to innovate is vast,uncertainty looms as well.Geopolitical conflicts,a tricky global e
8、conomy,increasingly sophisticated cyberthreats,and climate change all create risks that must be accounted for in planning for the next decade.Leading the way forward in this fast-moving and unpredictable landscape requires a strategic evolution by the telecommunications industry.Leaders will need to
9、 make thoughtful,but bold,choices as they prepare for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.To support this,Telecom 2030 explores how the industry can position itself at the forefront of the connectivity revolution.With insights from leaders across the industry,analysis of the ecosystem,an
10、d action guides,the report provides the tools to help plan for a better,more connected,and resilient world for 2030 and beyond.Stephen RoseGeneral Manager,Global Industries,IBMMats GranrydDirector-General,GSMA23Dramatic societal changes are expected over the next six years.The telecom industry must
11、prepare for the central role it will play in the hyperconnected world of 2030.Many telecom executives plan to adapt current capabilities to meet future demands.While promising,this less assertive approach could expose communications service providers(CSPs)to competitive risks.Roughly one-quarter of
12、CSPs are pursuing technology modernization as a primary path to growth.They can be better positioned for heightened agility and innovationbut should not underestimate the complexities of being on the forefront of advanced technology adoption.“I think the world is going to change as much over the nex
13、t six years as it has over the past 20 years.”David Burns Enterprise Group Executive,TelstraKey takeaways4Taking charge of fateTelecommunications executives anticipate seismic shifts in the world by 2030,yet many communications service providers(CSPs)may not reflect the demands of the new realities
14、in their strategic planning.Eye-opening research from the IBM Institute for Business Value(IBM IBV)suggests many CSPs expect to focus on adapting capabilities for future needs rather than proactively pursuing growth.This approach could leave them vulnerable to competitive risks and blind to innovati
15、on opportunities.To explore what the telecommunications landscape might look like in 2030,we conducted an extensive survey of more than 1,800 telecom executives in 23 countries.This quantitative research was then supplemented by in-depth individual interviews with global CSP leaders for a front-row
16、view(see“Study approach and methodology,”page 30).How do industry leaders see the world in six years(see Perspective,“The world in 2030”)?Among the survey findings:AI evolves to predicting and controlling the personal and work lives of most of the population.Climate change impacts and cyberthreats e
17、scalate to requiring near-constant responses from enterprises.Consumer needs take new forms,with personal autonomous flying vehicles and brain interface devices starting to scale.15FIGURE 1The race to 2030Four potential strategic approaches With such dynamic advances on the horizon,one might expect
18、CSPs to be embracing equally dynamic strategies.But our analysis reveals a mixed picture(see Figure 1).Slightly more than half of respondents indicate todays priorities for their companies will be broadly suitable for 2030.A small percentage of respondents suggest they could be crisis-focused,as con
19、tending with external disruptions becomes the new business as usual,while another small group indicates they could be effectively repositioning to become back-end service providers.The remaining 26%of respondents represent organizations that plan to leverage emerging technologies to energize growth
20、and expand influence with consumers and enterprise customers.This report will unfold in two sections.In part one,we will delve into the strategic approaches that the survey data indicates CSPs are pursuing,including the likely implications for the future.Then in part two,we will explore four crucial
21、 steps that CSPs can take now to prime their organizations for 2030,including a specific action guide for each step.Source:IBM Institute for Business Value analysis of respondents answers to a set of questions on the world and their priorities today and in 203053%26%13%8%MaintainingExpandingReorient
22、ingContendingExpanding26%Reorienting13%Contending8%Maintaining53%Maintaining:adapting todays capabilities to meet the changing needs of a highly connected worldExpanding:embracing emerging technologies to fuel new forms of growthReorienting:strategically becoming back-end service providers through w
23、holesale servicesContending:preparing for a world in which reacting to external crises becomes business as usualPerspectiveThe world in 2030,as viewed by CSP executives63%69%Many people have chosen to live off gridreverting to analog devices.People around the world embrace living in homes that gener
24、ate their own energy and produce their own food.91%Passwords for cybersecurity are nearly obsolete.AI predicts and controls personal and work lives of a significant part of the population.78%We live in an unreal worldunable to easily verify fake news and whats real.75%AI significantly reduces the nu
25、mber of personnel required by telecom organizations by managing core functions such as networks and customer service.Consumers are supported with affordable everyday robotics.65%Medical breakthroughs extend life with cures for cancer,Alzheimers,and 3D-printed organs.50%Personal autonomous flying veh
26、icles are used as a means of transport.*Digital surveillance is everywhere.86%73%80%Unchecked AI creates superintelligence that humans cannot match.Human augmentation such as brain interface devices has started to scale.67%76%Percentages reflect responses of agree or strongly agree to each statement
27、.Leaders will need to address these anticipated opportunities and threats as they plan for the future.67Succeeding in a fast-paced world,rife with uncertaintyand rich in potentialrequires CSPs to make thoughtful choices.Part one:Four strategic views of the futureTelecom leaders recognize that techno
28、logy developments are accelerating at an exceptional rate.“I think the world is going to change as much over the next six years as it has over the past 20 years,”predicts Telstra Enterprise Group Executive David Burns.Succeeding in such a fast-paced world,rife with uncertaintyand rich in potentialre
29、quires thoughtful choices.Weve analyzed the responses of the telecom executives we surveyed to identify four distinct strategic approaches that CSPs may take.Note these strategies were revealed by our data analysis and are not necessarily the way CSPs or their leaders describe themselves.In practice
30、,most CSPs could incorporate elements of more than one strategy into their plans and should therefore evaluate all four approaches to see where they align todayand to take charge of where they want to be in 2030.8Strategy A:Maintaining to optimize investmentsIn the parable about the tortoise and the
31、 hare,consistency and steadiness ultimately won the race.The majority of the CSPs surveyed appear to be taking a similar approach in their race to 2030.Their implicit assumption seems to be that staying the course with current prioritiessuch as providing traditional services in developing countries
32、and enterprise marketswill secure their path to the finish line.But an emerging factor should be considered:race conditions are changing.Market forces are shifting,driven by pressure from alternative connectivity solutions,such as satellite,and the blurring lines among CSPs,media,and technology vend
33、ors.New players in connectivity and from other industries are emerging,yet,perhaps surprisingly,these competitors are cited by less than 10%of respondents aligned with this strategy.A lack of attention to these new dynamics leaves CSPs exposed to multiple risks,including shrinking market share,erosi
34、on of customer loyalty,and missed growth opportunities(the latter already a potential issue according to recent IBM IBV research).2“Infrastructure will continue to be critical,but youre going to need to move up the stack to be of greater value to B2B customers.”David Burns Enterprise Group Executive
35、,Telstra9Strategy B:Expanding for uniquenessFor roughly one-quarter of CSPs,their response to the changes ahead reflects a desire to embrace emerging technologies in pursuit of opportunities and productivity.Innovation(65%)and technology modernization(64%)go hand in hand as their priorities for 2030
36、.As they strive for growth in new geographic markets and with both consumers and enterprise customers,this group values a variety of business partners in the decade ahead,including cloud providers(70%),strategy or consulting providers(65%),network equipment providers(57%),and niche solution provider
37、s(50%)a point echoed by telecom leaders in other IBM IBV research.3 Nokia Chief Strategy and Technology Officer(CSTO)Nishant Batra explains some of the implications of this enterprising approach.“Telecom operators have to evolve themselves to prove they can be part of that value exchange,”he says.“T
38、hey will have to make massive changes in terms of capabilities,competence,and leadership mindset.They have to invest in software as well as assets and capabilities around the software.”Batra notes that for the“plumbers of the world,”the future is twofold.First is their role as traffic carriers where
39、 the level of complexity is surging.He expects network traffic to be 10 times or more higher,latencies to be 10 times or less lower,while millions of devices and new vectors like locations,localization,and positioning will come into play.“And what excites us is that this complexity allows us to know
40、 and evolve technology,”he says.On the other hand,“we dont want to be relegated to numbers.We want to create some value for ourselves as well,so that becomes the question in 2030,”Batra continues.“Some of that value comes from simply evolving the business model of selling subscriptions to also selli
41、ng APIs.We see how we can create enough levers for the industry to monetize exposure of our products by allowing APIs to be consumed,and were enabling that on the back end with concepts like network slicing.”10Strategy C:Reorienting for a wholesale modelWhether overtly or otherwise,13%of CSPs may be
42、 on course to redefine themselves by 2030,according to our survey analysis.This group,more than the others,anticipates greater competition in 2030,including a quarter(26%)foreseeing pressure from new organizations enabled by APIs and eSIMs.Additionally,with the trend toward consolidations,mergers,an
43、d acquisitions among companies in the telecom,media,and technology industries,some CSPs will likely be absorbed.4 Others may become targets for takeovers if they fail to anticipate or respond appropriately to technological advancements,competitive pressures,and regulatory changes.As new or expanded
44、consumer businesses offer a range of servicesfrom connectivity to contentsome CSPs may become back-end providers of network infrastructure and services.For CSPs previously focused on consumer services,this outlook would be a significant business model shift as they become providers of wholesale serv
45、ices to other companies such as mobile virtual network operators(MVNOs),technology providers,and content providers.The change is already in motion for some CSPs,which,over the last few years,have divested their cell tower infrastructure or fiber optic networks to create standalone telecommunications
46、 infrastructure companies that provide wholesale services.These neutral hosts also anticipate helping CSPs to monetize their 5G networks faster to support use cases such as smart cities and emergency response.5Juniper Networks CTO Raj Yavatkar foresees opportunities for CSPs in this different role.“
47、They can act as managed service providers for large enterprises,”he explains.“But they have to go beyond connectivity they have to uplevel it(connectivity)to complete vertical integrated solutions.”“They(wholesalers)can act as managed service providers for large enterprises,but they have to go beyon
48、d connectivity they have to uplevel it(connectivity)to complete vertical integrated solutions.”Raj Yavatkar CTO,Juniper Networks11Strategy D:Contending with turbulent eventsThe waves of disruption in recent years have been unprecedented,from the pandemic to geopolitical conflicts to natural disaster
49、sand the pattern isnt expected to wane.For example,recently surveyed global government leaders expect shock events to be more frequent and more severe.6 Given this,it is not surprising that 8%of our respondents foresee themselves focused on contending with external events.Some already are.In Ukraine
50、,operator Kyivstar has been struggling to stay connected,noting that 35%of its sites in the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions were destroyed by combat forces in 2022.7 In Gaza,virtually all communicationsincluding mobile phones and the internethave been completely cut off at times.8 On a very different fro
51、nt,some CSPs have been battling extreme weather events.In 2022,Bell Canada spent roughly$30 million and 25,000 hours of overtime responding to the damage caused when a post-tropical storm hit the countrys Atlantic coast.Elsewhere in Canada,when wildfire flames engulfed Albertas forests in May 2023,o
52、perator TELUS had to ship portable towers for cellphone service to Edmonton;the next month,a fire forced closure of the major east-west route on Vancouver Island,so TELUS rerouted one of the portable towers to provide connectivity to a remote area being used as a detour route.9Such heightened threat
53、s to networks require all CSPs to anticipate disruptionbut without letting a focus on reacting supplant business planning.Its possible that crisis events become so commonplace,responding becomes business as usual.1Four2Plan for the bestand the worstcritical steps to orchestrate outcomes for 2030Mode
54、rnizeor move over34Invest in human talentUnderscore cybersecurity1213Part two:Four critical steps to orchestrate outcomes for 2030Based on our research findings and interviews,we identified four steps essential to any of the strategic approaches taken by CSPs.For each step,weve created an action gui
55、de to highlight specific moves that can help ready an organization for 2030.A proactive approach to planning,tech modernization,talent investment,and cybersecurityunderpinned by a growth mindsetcan help CSPs stay on pace for a decade of opportunity.A proactive approach to planning,tech modernization
56、,talent investment,and cybersecurity can help CSPs stay on pace for a decade of opportunity.14Step 1:Plan for the bestand the worstMove from predictions to probabilities.To get ahead of the unexpected,Junipers Yavatkar regularly solicits suggestions from a diverse group of stakeholderssales,marketin
57、g,engineering,architecture,partners,and customers.He then evaluates the efficacy of each idea,narrowing the list to three or four that are taken forward through a 12-to 18-month incubation period.“When a disruption happens in the industry,we are often the last to find out as the incumbents,”Yavatkar
58、 says.“This has been my way to create a funnel of ideas and a systematic way to marshal that.And while we have been able to incubate ideas very quickly,weve also been able to react very quickly to some of the disruptions that came.”Yavatkar is representative of a group of respondents in our study an
59、alysis who are distinguished by their use of multiple planning tools.These techniques yield a more diverse and well-rounded understanding of their environment,challenges,and opportunities.They help move CSPs beyond predictions to a probabilistic approach that gives them the dexterity to try differen
60、t paths and choose the best fit.The methods used most by surveyed organizations include PESTLE analysis(65%),Porters Five Forces(58%),scenario planning(58%),and balanced scorecard(58%).10 Given the increasing impacts of global warming,disaster readiness becomes a critical component of planning.Respo
61、ndents are united in their concern about climate change;those expecting it to influence the industry nearly doubles from today to 2030(see Figure 2).In fact,85%of all respondents say wildfires and coastal flooding will affect regions for much of the time in 2030.1“Heightened threats should not get i
62、n the way of business.But they do require CSPs to assume and proactively plan for the worst.”Ibrahim Gedeon CTO,Canadian-based TELUS1585%of all respondents say wildfires and coastal flooding will affect regions for much of the year in 2030.2xmore respondents think climate change will be a major infl
63、uence on the industry in 2030Today203015%29%FIGURE 2 Telecom executives concern about climate change impacts almost doubles going forward.Q.Top external influencers of the telecom industry today and in 2030:climate change;Q.Percent of respondents who agree or strongly agree with the statement.CTO Ib
64、rahim Gedeon of Canadian-based TELUS,whose organization has been battling weather-fueled turmoil,says these“heightened threats should not get in the way of business.But they do require CSPs to assume and proactively plan for the worst.”“Theres a fine balance between classic redundancy in the network
65、 and building in independence to suit this new world where we need to limit the impact of disasters,”says Gedeon,who points to network aggregation as an example.“Disaggregation of the network helps limit the impact of disasters for those who would otherwise be cut off from the population.”He emphasi
66、zes the importance of building relationships to coordinate disaster response.“In times of national emergencies,we need not only new technology solutions,but new business models and collaborationseven with competitorsto support the citizens,”explains Gedeon.At TELUS,he says that translates into“regul
67、ar training,drills,and tabletop exercises within the company as well as participation in broader exercises that simulate responses across all responding organizationscritical to ensuring timely and correct actions.”While troubled by the effects of global warming,the industry appears to struggle with
68、 how to lower its own contributions to climate change(see Perspective,“Sustainability barriers to overcome”).Several challenges stand in the way of CSPs efforts to operationalize sustainability.1An important aspect of planning for the future is how to run networks sustainably,says Nokia CSTO Nishant
69、 Batra.He notes the expectation that 6G technology can reduce power consumption in half(compared to previous generations)while handling substantially more traffic.Yet in our study,81%of executives expect the telecom industry will lag behind other industries in achieving sustainability goals in 2030.
70、In a separate 2023 IBM IBV survey,telecom execs said multiple aspects of their organizations need significant transformation to support sustainability objectives,including IT systems and partner governance.Data problems in particular loom as a barrier to progressfrom poor internal and external data
71、availability,to insufficient data stewardship and governance,to inadequate data security.Also,nearly half of respondents said significant or profound change is needed around organizational culture to achieve their sustainability objectives.11 Instead of seeing sustainability as standalone initiative
72、s,organizations need to integrate it throughout operations.Modernizing the technology infrastructure and strengthening data management,both internally and across their ecosystem,can help CSPs move toward operationalizing sustainability.PerspectiveSustainability barriers to overcome161Anticipate the
73、future with greater rigorReview your current planning methods.Are you using several different approaches,and do they provide a comprehensive view of internal and external forces impacting the business?Do you use a cross-functional strategy team to gain perspectives from all areas of the business?Inc
74、orporate AI into planning by researching and selecting appropriate AI-based tools that can help with accomplishing specific goals,such as improving response times,optimizing resources,enhancing predictive capabilities,or simulating network response.Define clear,accurate measures of efficiency and ef
75、fectiveness for sustainable operations.Action guide17118Step 2:Modernizeor move overModernize technology to innovate relentlessly,operate efficiently,and respond effectively to disruption.Spurred by rapid technological progress in 5G,IoT,AI,and edge computing,the digital terrain for the telecom indu
76、stry is transforming at breakneck speed.Failure to embrace advanced technologies puts organizations at risk of losing revenue to rivals that do.For most of our respondents,technology modernization starts with cloud computing.Nearly three in four are committed to cloud as a top technology for 2030.“C
77、loud will just become a way of doing things,”says Airtel CTO Randeep Sekhon.“But it will become more of a background play rather than a foreground play in my mind.”AI adoption is critical as well(see Perspective,“How AI is changing the telecom gamenow”).“Generative AI is already showing very high po
78、tential,”says Airtels Sekhon.“In six years,it will definitely be a mainstay like machine learning is today.It will be a tool that we use every day in our personal lives,and more mature tools will be used in the enterprise.”But our survey respondents commitment to technology modernization varies.For
79、example,executives aligned with the“Maintaining”strategy dont rank technology modernization in their top five priorities today or in 2030.They do prioritize innovation alongside productivity,scalability,and growth goals(see Figure 3),but perhaps need to consider more closely the role advanced techno
80、logies can play in unlocking success for their leading agenda items.FIGURE 3Those CSPs aligned with the“Maintaining”approach appear to be missing the connection between technology modernization and innovation.63%Innovation of products,services,and business models61%Productivity/profitability59%Custo
81、mer experience57%Scalability of service delivery54%Market share growth50%Technology modernizationQ.Which of the following represent your organizations highest priorities in 2030?22Although AI maturity will continue to accelerate over the next six years,surveyed telecom executives remain reticent:onl
82、y around half said AI/generative AI was a top five technology for 2030.DISH Executive Vice President and CTO Eben Albertyn speculates that the current distrust issues in generative AIsuch as hallucinationsmay be restraining eagerness.“Were going to be in for a tough time the next five years with AI,
83、but our ability to understand all of this is going to get a lot better,”Albertyn says.“I dont think the importance of AI will go down,because once weve caught up with being able to administer,govern,and adjudicate what happens in these models,well be able to use them more successfully.And I think th
84、at will happen long before 2030.”The telecom industry is well suited for AI because it runs on standards and protocols,says Albertyn.“Standards and protocols have rules,and rules help models to train,”he explains.“Theres a huge amount of traffic flowing on the communications networks and a huge amou
85、nt of use cases can sit within that,which means the ability to have AI trained to understand telecommunications is perfectly married.”Today,generative AI can already help network operations technicians as well as field and site technicians by auto-generating trouble tickets and documenting actions a
86、nd resolutions.As telecom-specific foundation models are developed over the next two to three years,generative AI use cases can become exponentially more powerful.Examples include network performance optimization(signal strength and quality,spectrum usage,load balancing,and more),traffic analysis an
87、d classification(5G CORE and transport optimization and dynamic application assignment to 5G slices),and network data pattern analysis(root cause analysis and fault isolation).Telstras Burns is enthusiastic about the potential of generative AI.“Im excited about data-based AI moving into this open so
88、urce,open world of large language models,”he says.“Its going to completely change how people interact,the way we develop solutions,the way we develop propositions.I know its going to be dramatically different.”PerspectiveHow AI is changing the telecom gamenow“The pace at which AI has changed over th
89、e last 12 to 14 months is scary.We dont know where were going to go.But I am optimistic.We are going to see more efficiency,and we are starting to see this already in areas like marketing.By 2030,AI will be the norm.We arent going to think about it.”Raj Yavatkar CTO,Juniper Networks192“Generative AI
90、 is already showing very high potential.In six years,it will definitely be a mainstay like machine learning is today.”Randeep Sekhon CTO,Airtel Looking more specifically at those technologies that will continue to mature over the next few years,differences again emerge.For instance,leaders aligned w
91、ith the“Maintaining”scenario show less interest in edge(48%),6G(48%),and quantum computing(27%)than those aligned with the“Expanding”scenario,who prioritize 6G(73%)and edge(58%)and whose intrigue with quantum computing increases nearly eight times from today(6%)to 2030(47%;see Figure 4).FIGURE 4“Exp
92、anding”strategy respondents are more enthusiastic about some emerging technologies in 2030 than“Maintaining”strategy respondents.Maintaining approachExpanding approach6GEdgeAutomationAI/generative AIQuantumIoT devices6IoT devicesAI/generative AIEdge6GAutomationQuantum73%58%52%50%47%44%64%
93、61%48%48%36%27%Q.What are the top 5 technologies you see as critical to your organizations success in 2030?20As these technologies develop,they can fuel new solutions for revenue generation.Take edge computing,which helps enable more robust solutions and builds resilience in the case of network disr
94、uption.“The edge will play a very important role because if we are looking at AI use cases for consumerswhether for work or for entertainmentthey will all need to be rendered near the consumer to meet their demands for speed,”notes Airtels Sekhon.Combined with classical computing,quantum computing o
95、ffers the ability to solve problems once considered out of reach.Telecom use cases include securing communications,optimizing network performance,and refining the antenna tilt to improve radio link frequency.12What about 6G?The technology is still in the early stages of standards development,advises
96、 one expert,and is not likely to be ready for deployment by 2030.When 6G does roll out,it will be much more than just a faster 5Git is expected to power innovative enterprise use cases such as autonomous vehicles.13 CSPs need to begin anticipating its potential.“It is driving the trend for the netwo
97、rk to become an integrated platform that supports the convergence of connectivity,intelligence,and compute,”the expert explains.21“The edge will play a very important role because if we are looking at AI use cases for consumerswhether for work or for entertainmentthey will all need to be rendered ne
98、ar the consumer to meet their demands for speed.”Randeep Sekhon CTO,Airtel2Live at the forefront of technology trendsEstablish a dedicated,cross-functional team responsible for identifying,overseeing,and executing technology modernization initiatives.Assess the organizations technology infrastructur
99、e,software,and tools to identify areas that require modernization or improvement.Set clear,measurable,time-defined goals for technology modernization initiatives that align with the organizations overall business goals.Allocate financial resources,personnel,and time to technology modernization proje
100、cts.Involve your financial operations team so you can temper the business case for emerging technologies around knowns and unknowns and help prevent disillusionment from overhyped expectations.Action guide22223Step 3:Invest in human talentEquip the workforce with a new set of skillsfrom technology t
101、o people management.With the rapid adoption of advanced technologies,tech-savvy talent becomes critical.Overall,respondents recognize a shift will be needed from telecom-specific capabilities today to other technology capabilities.But respondents who align with the“Expanding”approach are also priori
102、tizing“soft skills”such as critical thinking (see Figure 5).Telstras Burns observes,“We are categorically going to go from being product salespeople to value,data,and analytics insights people.The ability to understand industries and companieshorizontal issues like workforce safety,workforce managem
103、ent,or remote monitoring and diagnosticsis a far different world than selling fiber connectivity that will link from point A to point B.People will need to be much more consultative in how they position themselves in front of customers.”Expanding scenario organizations shift skill requirements to me
104、et the demands of new technologies.Figure 5Today2030Other technology capabilities(AI,augmented&virtual reality,cloud)Advisory capabilitiesDomain/industry knowledgePeople managementSustainabilityCritical thinking/problem solving72%70%52%53%48%40%36%13%42%51%58%47%Most important skillsFIGURE 5“Expandi
105、ng”approach respondents foresee skill requirements extending beyond technology to meet the demands of innovation and new business models.Q.What are the most important skills for your organization in 2030?Responses of executives aligning with the“Expanding”strategic approach.324“We are categorically
106、going to go from being product salespeople to value,data,and analytics insights people.”David Burns Enterprise Group Executive,TelstraAttracting top talent may be tough for CSPs.Competition for digitally skilled workers is tight.Early career programs such as internships and apprenticeships can help
107、fill the pipeline,while reskilling and upskilling programs for current employees will continue to be key.14Business partners can also help fill the gaps in technology expertise and remove blinders when problem-solving.Some respondents are looking to startups,which offer CSPs access to leading thinke
108、rs and cutting-edge solutions with minimal investment.“If youre stuck with tunnel vision around something,startupswhich tend to have a very fresh perspectivecan help you find the opportunity you can pursue,”explains DISHs Albertyn.“You might be staring yourself blind against the risk or threat,but t
109、he threat in and of itself always creates an opportunity.If you cant see it,you may need help to see it,and that could most frequently come from partnerships.”The AI revolution will also continue to impact the workforce.In recent IBM IBV research,telecom executives estimated that 40%of their workfor
110、ce will need to reskill due to AI and automation implementation over just the next three years.15 As our respondents look ahead to 2030,91%say that AI will significantly reduce the number of personnel required by their organizations to manage core functions,such as networks and customer service.CSPs
111、 will need to embrace the age of the augmented workforce,which includes restructuring their operating models to optimize human-machine partnerships.As an example,generative AI can transform the contact center experience for both employees and consumers with powerful self-service functionality and st
112、reamlined call analysiseven turning customer care into a revenue generator.163Tackle the talent drought and bridge the skill chasmAssess the current skills and knowledge of your workforce to identify gaps in understanding or proficiency related to emerging technologies such as AI,quantum computing,o
113、r others.Identify and organize internal or external training programs and workshops focused on emerging technologies.Consider online platforms and look to industry associations for learning opportunities and innovation challenges.Partner with local education establishments to create internship/appre
114、nticeship programs that fill the pipeline for future employees.Assess the market and identify potential partners that align with your strategic goals,technology needs,and target markets.Consider technology providers,network equipment vendors,cloud service providers,content providers,and startups.Act
115、ion guide25326Step 4:Underscore cybersecurityPrioritize regulatory compliance and security as a differentiator.With an abundance of user data and a key role in security authentication,telecom companies present an increasingly lucrative target for cybercriminals.In fact,in just the first two months o
116、f 2023,more than 74 million private records tied to customers of multiple CSPs were leaked to the dark web,according to Cyble Research and Intelligence Labsmostly through third-party vendor networks.17“In a more highly connected world,the avenues to a security incident increase,”notes Airtels Sekhon
117、.Yet in our survey,only about half of executives cite cybersecurity and data privacy as a top priority for 2030(see Figure 6).This is despite the fact that 82%of respondents predict a world where distrust in information is pervasivedriven by fake news and datamaking it difficult for organizations an
118、d individuals to know what is real.Troubling disinformation campaigns often rely on misused personal data to manipulate individuals,making data protection and privacy even more of an imperative for CSPs.“I do believe that the regulatory environment is a big differentiating advantage for telcos.”Raj
119、Yavatkar CTO,Juniper Networks42782%Today2030Cybersecurity and data privacy barely increases as a priority for all respondents42%52%Executives predict information distrust will be pervasive,driven by fake news and data.Figure 6Surveyed executives are counting on quantum computing as essential to thei
120、r cybersecurity solutions in 2030.Nearly three in four(74%)anticipate quantum-safe algorithms and cryptography will reinforce the security of their networks and organizations.FIGURE 6Despite worries about the impact of fake data on the world,only half of executives cite cybersecurity/data privacy as
121、 a top priority in 2030.Q.Extent you agree with what cybersecurity will be like in 2030;percentage represents responses of agree or strongly agree with the statement:Distrust has become pervasive with governments and individuals challenged to understand what is real due to fake news and data.Q.Organ
122、izations highest priorities today and in 2030:Cybersecurity and data privacy.However,DISHs Albertyn cautions:“The axiom that I work from when it comes to any form of security is that any human-made system,whether physical,electronic,or otherwise,can be broken by another person,”he says.“That then ex
123、tends that any computer-generated system can be undone by a computer.”Developing a quantum-safe roadmap for the telecom industry cannot wait.18428“The axiom that I work from when it comes to any form of security is that any human-made system,whether physical,electronic,or otherwise,can be broken by
124、another person.That then extends that any computer-generated system can be undone by a computer.”Eben Albertyn Executive Vice President and CTO,DISH Nokias Batra says that in addition to quantum-secure networks,his company is also considering how to move toward homomorphic encryption,where data rema
125、ins encrypted and can be shared while remaining unreadable by those doing computations on the data.19“For us,the whole evolution to next levels of encryption is massive,”Batra says.“When we are connecting the whole world,it is imperative that we make sure they feel the connection is secure.”Governme
126、nts agree.Telecommunications is a highly regulated industry,but CSPs can leverage this to their benefit,says Junipers Yavatkar.“I do believe that the regulatory environment is a big differentiating advantage for telcos,”he says.“First,the data sovereignty concept means that data has to be protected
127、within geography boundaries.Second,when it comes to personally identifiable information,as well as location and data usage information,telcos are allowed to use all that information under regulation,and its normally not used.Those two aspects are big differentiators because you can now build value-a
128、dded services.”As CSPs adopt emerging technologies and adapt their business models to engage new industries,regulations may well become more complex.Still,demonstrating regulatory expertise and robust security to new customer bases can give CSPs an edge.4Supercharge data securityEstablish a checklis
129、t for vetting vendors thoroughly against strong security standards before entering into partnerships.Include security policies,procedures,certifications.Assign a dedicated team or individual to monitor and stay informed of regulatory changes for data protection and privacy and to use compliance mana
130、gement software to automate and streamline regulatory compliance processes.Work with your HR department to ensure security responsibilities and training requirements are integrated into job descriptions at all levels of the organization.Identify written resources as well as training opportunities to
131、 educate your security workforce on quantum-safe cryptography.Begin evaluating your existing infrastructure to understand current cryptographic capabilities so you can be proactive in considering post-quantum-safe cryptography solutions.Action guide294Expert contributorsThe authors would like to tha
132、nk the following for their contributions to this report:Peter Jarich,GSMA Intelligence;Brian Robertson and Denna Jones,GSMA;G.S.Raghavan,IBM Partner,Telecom Networks;Harish Pani,IBM Managing Client Partner;Steve Goetz,IBM Senior Partner;Rakshit Mehta,IBM Industry Business Development;Kevin Condron,B
133、ridget Devine,and Pranav Badhwar,IBM Marketing.We also thank the IBM IBV Analytics Research Hub,including Steve Ballou,Kathleen Martin,Arvind Raj,and Hebatallah Nashaat,and the IBM IBV Editorial and Design Team including Joanna Wilkins,Sara Aboulhosn,and Andrew Womack.Stephen RoseGeneral Manager,Glo
134、bal IndustriesIBM KumarSenior Partner and Vice President,IBM ConsultingGlobal Industry Leader for Telecom and M KurienGlobal Telecom,Media,and Entertainment LeaderIBM Institute for Business V authorsStudy approach and methodologyThe IBM Institute for Business Value,in cooperation with Oxford Economi
135、cs,surveyed 1,850 telecommu-nications industry executives from 23 countries.Roles included CEOs,CIOs,Chief Strategy Officers,CTOs or Chief Networks Officers,Heads of enterprise business divisions,and Heads of consumer divisions.The IBM IBV mapped survey questions to four potential strategic approach
136、es for 2030:Maintaining,Expanding,Reorienting,Contending.Overall scores to responses were standardized,where each respondent was given a score from 1%to 100%for each approach.The highest score become their final alignment to an approach.IBM generative AI tools were used in the survey analysis and in
137、 research for this report.InterviewsIn November and December 2023,we selected executives from leading companies in the telecom industry to interview one-on-one to validate and explore the survey results in more depth.Their expertise is reflected in the report along with select quotes throughout the
138、paper.3031Related reportsTelecoms blind spotTelecoms blind spot:Hidden opportunities to drive revenue growth.IBM Institute for Business Value in partnership with GSMA Intelligence.September 2023.https:/ibm.co/telecoms-revenue-opportunitiesTelecoms and bank connectTelecoms and banks connect:Tapping i
139、nto transactions and tech to grow revenue.IBM Institute for Business Value.January 2024.https:/ibm.co/telecoms-mobile-financial-servicesThe CEOs guide to generative AI:CybersecurityThe CEOs guide to generative AI:Cybersecurity.IBM Institute for Business Value.October 2023.https:/ibm.co/ceo-generativ
140、e-ai-cybersecurityIBM Institute for Business ValueFor two decades,the IBM Institute for Business Value has served as the thought leadership think tank for IBM.What inspires us is producing research-backed,technology-informed strategic insights that help leaders make smarter business decisions.From o
141、ur unique position at the intersection of business,technology,and society,we survey,interview,and engage with thousands of executives,consumers,and experts each year,synthesizing their perspectives into credible,inspiring,and actionable insights.To stay connected and informed,sign up to receive IBM
142、IBVs email newsletter at can also follow us on LinkedIn at https:/ibm.co/ibv-linkedin.The right partner for a changing worldAt IBM,we collaborate with our clients,bringing together business insight,advanced research,and technology to give them a distinct advantage in todays rapidly changing environm
143、ent.About GSMAThe GSMA is a global organization unifying the mobile ecosystem to discover,develop,and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change.Its vision is to unlock the full power of connectivity so that people,industry,and society thrive.Representing m
144、obile operators and organizations across the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries,the GSMA delivers for its members across three broad pillars:Industry Services and Solutions,Connectivity for Good,and Outreach.About Research InsightsResearch Insights are fact-based strategic insights for busines
145、s executives on critical public-and private-sector issues.They are based on findings from analysis of our own primary research studies.For more information,contact the IBM Institute for Business Value at .321 Isidore,Chris.“A flying car prototype just got an airworthiness certificate from the FAA.”A
146、BC7News.July 4,2023.https:/ interfaces and the future of user engagement.”Fast Company.November 7,2022.https:/ Rose,Stephen,Rahul Kumar,and Priya Kurien.Telecoms blind spot:Hidden opportunities to drive revenue growth.IBM Institute for Business Value in partnership with GSMA Intelligence.September 2
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148、and Tony Scott.“Preparing governments for future shocks:A roadmap to resilience.”IBM Institute for Business Value in collaboration with the National Academy of Public Administration and the IBM Center for The Business of Government.October 2023.https:/ibm.co/government-future-shocks-resilience7 Wood
149、en,Andrew.“Telecoms at war:How Ukraine is fighting to stay connected.”September 15,2022.T.https:/ Simon,Scot and Greg Myre.“Communications have been cut off in Gaza,making rescue efforts even more difficult.”October 28,2023.NPR.https:/www.npr.org/2023/10/28/1209246893/communications-in-gaza-cut-off9
150、 Posadzki,Alexandra.“Telecoms are a lifeline when disaster strikes,but climate change is putting infrastructure at risk.”June 29,2023.The Globe and Mail.https:/ Wiles,Jackie.“What Functional Leaders Should Know About Scenario Planning.”Gartner.July 8,2022.https:/ Scorecard Basic.”Balanced Scorecard
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152、,Anthony Marshall,and Steve Peterson.ERP in the eco-conscious organization:The nexus between environmental and financial achievements.IBM Institute for Business Value in partnership with SAP.April 2023.https:/ibm.co/erp-sustainability.Unpublished data.12“Telecommunications and Quantum Computing:The
153、Future of Data Processing.”Utilities One.August 7,2023.https:/ Javed Awan,Jose Outes,Adriano Mendo.“How a real 5G Quantum AI use case could disrupt antenna tilting.”Ericsson.September 20,2023.https:/ 13 Marr,Bernard.“6G Is Coming:What Will Be the Business Impact?”Forbes.March 17,2023.https:/ Sadeghi
154、,Ahva.“Solving the Telecoms Labor Shortage:How Workforce Development Fills the Gap for Skilled Workers.”Accessed December 18,2023.The Fast Mode.https:/ Goldstein,Jill,William Lobig,Catherine Fillare,and Christopher Nowak.Augmented work for an automated,AI-driven world:Boost performance with human-ma
155、chine partnerships.IBM Institute for Business Value.August 2023.https:/ibm.co/augmented-workforce.Unpublished data.16 Mascarenhas,Vanessa,Stephen Rose,Rahul Kumar,Gianluca Palumbo,and Priya Kurien.Elevating telecom customer service:Generative AI answers the call.IBM Institute for Business Value in a
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