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1、THE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 2023JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYPrincipal funding for this report was provided by the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies.Additional support was provided by:Federal Home Loan Banks Habitat for Humanity International
2、 Housing Assistance Council MBAs Research Institute for Housing AmericaNational Apartment Association National Association of Home Builders National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials National Association of REALTORS National Council of State Housing Agencies National Housing Confere
3、nce National Housing Endowment National League of Cities National Low Income Housing Coalition National Multifamily Housing Council NeighborWorks America 2023 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College.The opinions expressed in The State of the Nations Housing 2023 do not necessarily represent
4、the views of Harvard University or the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies.01TABLE OF CONTENTS1.Executive Summary.12.Housing Markets.103.Demographic Drivers.184.Homeownership.255.Rental Housing.326.Housing Challenges.397.Addtional Resources.47ONLINE TABLES AND EXHIBITS www.
5、jchs.harvard.eduTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 2023 Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard UniversityHarvard Graduate School of Design|Harvard Kennedy School01Housing markets continue to cool even as homeowners and renters face higher costs.On the for-sale side,home sales and construction lev
6、els are declining,as is the pace of home price appreciation,while rental markets are experiencing sharply reduced rent growth and rising vacancy rates.Nevertheless,home prices and rents remain elevated from pre-pandemic levels.Millions of households are now priced out of homeownership,grappling with
7、 housing cost burdens,or lacking shelter altogether,including a disproportionate share of people of color,increasing the need for policies to address the national housing shortfall at the root of the affordability crisis.Likewise,there is growing urgency for public and private investment to address
8、longstanding disinvestment in underserved communities of color,adapt the housing stock to increasing risks of climate change,and expand options for older adults to age safely in their communities.Housing Markets Cool RapidlyIn both the for-sale and rental markets,housing demand softened and markets
9、cooled by early 2023 in response to rising interest rates and deteri-orating affordability.In the for-sale market,season-ally adjusted home prices declined month over month in July 2022 for the first time in over a decade,ticking down 2.8 percent by February 2023 from their pandemic peak.On an annua
10、l basis,home prices rose just 2.0 percent in February from the prior year,down from 20.1 percent annual growth a year earlier.Home prices fell year over year in 25 of the 100 largest metro areas tracked by Freddie Mac,with the steepest declines in markets in the West and South,including Austin,Boise
11、,and San Francisco.Asking rents nationally also rose year over year,though the rate of growth has slowed considerably.Annual rent growth for units in professionally managed apart-ments slowed from a record-high 15.3 percent in the first quarter of 2022 to just 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 202
12、3(Figure 1).Annual rent growth also slowed over Notes:Asking rents are for professionally managed apartments in buildings with five or more units.Home prices in 2023q1 reflect data for January and February only.Source:JCHS tabulations of RealPage data;S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Pric
13、e Index.Figure 1Home Price and Apartment Rent Growth Continued Sharp Decline in Early 2023Year-Over-Year Change(Percent)-15-10-505420062008200022Home PricesApartment RentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARYJOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS
14、HOUSING 20231the past year in all 50 markets tracked by RealPage,including declines in two markets.Rent growth decel-erated most rapidly in previously hot markets in the West and South.For example,in Phoenix,rents declined 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2023 after rising 25.6 percent one year e
15、arlier,and in Tampa,rents rose just 3.4 percent after rising 27.6 percent the year before.Still,housing costs remain high relative to pre-pan-demic levels.Between the beginning of 2020 and early 2023,asking rents in the professionally managed sector rose 23.9 percent.Similarly,nominal home prices ro
16、se an astounding 37.5 percent,helping to push up the median sales price for existing homes from$283,000 just before the pandemic to$375,400 in March 2023.In the face of higher home prices,first-time homebuyers must save even more to afford the up-front and downpayment costs needed to secure a mortga
17、ge,and require ever-higher incomes for the ongoing payments.In the near term,home prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels,due largely to the low number of homes available for purchase.However,the run-up in home prices during the pandemic has resulted in record-high levels of home equity
18、 for existing home-owners.According to the Federal Reserve,homeowner equity totaled$31.0 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022,$7.7 trillion higher than in the first quarter of 2020 after adjusting for inflation.On average,homeowners had$270,000 in equity,according to CoreLogic.Robust Household Gro
19、wth Likely to Slow Household growth surged to 1.9 million per year in 20192022,fueled by the pandemic-induced need for space,the pause in federal student loan payments,various stimulus packages,the temporary decline in rents in many major cities,and a boost in savings.Against this backdrop,millions
20、of millennials in their 20s and 30s were able to form new households and financially distressed households were able to remain in their homes.There has been particularly strong growth among homeowner households since the pandemic began,driven primarily by younger households able to take advantage of
21、 lower interest rates to fulfill aspirations for homeownership that had been delayed by the Great Recession.Favorable buyer conditions lifted homeownership rates by 1.2 percentage points overall since 2019 but by 2.2 percentage points among house-holds under age 35 and by 2.1 percentage points for h
22、ouseholds ages 3544.Consequently,the number of homeowner households headed by an adult under age 45 grew by 10 percent in just three years between 2019 and 2022.Meanwhile,renter household growth slowed in 2022 following a brief mid-pandemic surge in late 2021.The slowdown has been most evident in pr
23、ofessionally managed apartments,thanks in part to rising rents and the increased number of households with higher incomes transitioning to homeownership.Looking forward,total household growth is likely to slow in the coming few years,in part because much of the pent-up demand for household formation
24、 among young adults has been released,and also because of deteriorating affordability and slowing population growth,the primary long-term driver of household growth.The oldest baby boomers are turning 77 this year and as they continue aging the death rate will eventually exceed that of births,making
25、 immigration the countrys main source of population growth.But,compared with natural growth,immigration is much less predictable.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20232Higher Costs Push Homeownership Out of ReachHomeownership rates were rising bef
26、ore the pandemic and continued rising through it,powered by low interest rates and a jump in savings in 2020 and 2021.Nearly 1.5 million households joined the ranks of homeowners between 2021 and 2022,lifting homeownership rates by 0.3 percentage point to 65.8 percent,and by 2.4 percentage points si
27、nce the 2016 low.Notably,more than half5.2 millionof the 9.1 million new home-owner households created since 2016 were established in just the past three years.However,homeownership growth of this magni-tude is unlikely to continue in 2023.First-time home-buying plummeted in the second half of last
28、year in response to sharply rising interest rates that have significantly increased the cost of homeownership.Monthly payments on the US median-priced home,including taxes and insurance,shot up from$2,200 in January 2022 to$3,100 in October after the annual interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortga
29、ges jumped from 3.4 percent to 6.9 percent(Figure 2).Median monthly payments then settled to$3,000 by March 2023 as interest rates plateaued at 6.5 percent,but 08200222023Monthly Mortgage Payment on US Median-Priced Home(Right scale)30-Year Mortgage Interest Rate04008001,2001,6
30、002,0002,4002,8003,200Note:Monthly mortgage payments include principal,interest,taxes,and insurance(PITI)and assume a 3.5%downpayment on a 30-year fixed-rate loan,0.85%mortgage insurance,0.35%property insurance,and 1.15%property taxes.Source:JCHS tabulations of Freddie Mac,Primary Mortgage Market Su
31、rveys;National Association of Realtors(NAR),Existing Home Sales.Figure 2Steeply Rising Rates Have Made Payments on the Median-Priced Home Much More Expensive30-Year Mortgage Interest Rate(Percent)Monthly Mortgage Payment(Dollars)millions of renter households were nonetheless priced out of homeowners
32、hip.Agency data provided by the Urban Institute show a 22 percent annual decline in the number of mortgages originated to first-time home-buyers in 2022,including a year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter of nearly 40 percent.As the cost of homeownership rises,the prospect dims for eliminating rac
33、ial homeownership rate gaps,even after slight progress in recent years.Between 2019 and 2022,gains in Black homeownership narrowed the historically large Black-white homeownership rate gap by 2 percentage points.However,these gains are in jeopardy as increasing costs disproportionately price Black a
34、nd Hispanic renters out of homeownership.While the number of white renter households who could afford payments on the US median-priced home fell by 30 percent between March of 2022 and March of 2023,the number of Black and Hispanic renter households in this group dropped by 39 percent and 37 percent
35、,respectively.With Black and Hispanic homeowner-ship rates still fully 28.6 and 25.8 percentage points below white homeownership rates,policymakers and practitioners have a long way to go to reduce these disparities.Higher costs make the job more difficult.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD
36、 UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20233Single-Family Construction Slowing Single-family homebuilding declined significantly last year as buyers reacted to sharply higher borrowing costs.Single-family housing starts dropped 10.8 percent in 2022,with the slowdown growing more pronounced thro
37、ughout the year.The annu-alized rate of single-family housing starts averaged just 876,000 new units in the second half of the year,down 23.2 percent from the same period the year before and well below the 1.0 million units averaged since 1990(Figure 3).The decline in new homebuilding is particularl
38、y acute for lower-priced homes,due to rising construction and land costs,limited lot availability,and regulatory barriers like minimum lot sizes that restrict entry-level housing production.In 2021,just 24 percent of new homesor 236,000 unitswere under 1,800 square feet,compared with 37 percent of n
39、ew completions in 1999.Likewise,manufactured housing,often an even more affordable option,totaled just 113,000 shipments in 2022.Although up from recent lows,manufactured home shipments regularly topped 200,000 units annu-ally in the 1980s and 1990s.Note:Single-family and multifamily historical aver
40、ages are of seasonally adjusted monthly data from January 1990 to March 2023.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,New Residential Construction.Figure 3Single-Family Construction Dropped Dramatically,While Multifamily Development Remained StrongAnnualized Housing Starts(Thousands of units,seas
41、onally adjusted)02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00020002002200420062008200022Single-FamilyMultifamilySingle-Family Historical AverageMultifamily Historical AverageThe construction slowdown in 2022 raised concerns about the nations large and ongoing housing shortfall.Whi
42、le estimates of the degree of the undersupply vary significantly,there is widespread agreement that new supply has not kept pace with demand,compressing vacancy rates and limiting the supply of homes for sale.In March 2023,just 970,000 existing homes(including 860,000 single-family homes)were avail-
43、able for purchase,an uptick from the all-time inventory lows reached during the pandemic but still 42 percent less than in 2019,when supply was already historically low.Movement in both interest rates and the economy will help determine whether single-family construction rebounds in 2023.Either way,
44、there remains an urgent need for more new single-family construction.Multifamily Construction Thriving Unlike single-family homebuilding,multifamily construction continued to rise in 2022 even as rental demand softened.Indeed,547,000 new multifamily units were started last year,the highest number si
45、nce the mid-1980s.Plus,fully 960,000 units in multifamily buildings were under construction as of March 2023,the highest number in half a century.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20234Meanwhile,rental vacancy rates are rising,which suggests a for
46、thcoming slowdown in multifamily construction when combined with higher interest rates,tightening lending standards,and weak developer sentiment.The overall rental vacancy rate climbed to 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2023 after falling to a four-decade low of 5.2 percent in late 2021.Like-wis
47、e,the vacancy rate for professionally managed apartments has more than doubled from a record low of 2.5 percent in 2022 to 5.2 percent in early 2023,with vacancy rates highest for the highest-cost(Class A)units,at 5.6 percent,and lowest for the lower-cost(Class C)units,at 4.7 percent,suggesting the
48、market for these units remained relatively tight.Given that the bulk of new construction targets the higher-cost market segment,the robust pipeline of multifamily units may lead to additional vacancy rate increases that will simultaneously help to limit rent growth for high-cost units,while likely p
49、roviding less relief to renters with lower incomes.According to data from the Survey of Market Absorption,the median asking rent for newly completed multifamily units in 2022 was$1,800 and thus affordable only to households earning more than$72,000 assuming the 30 percent of income affordability sta
50、ndard.Moreover,fully 36 percent of newly completed multifamily units had asking rents of$2,050 or more,while just 5 percent had asking rents below$1,050,leaving renters with low and moderate incomes to reckon with a stubbornly tight supply of moderate-and lower-priced apartments.Cost Burdens Reach R
51、ecord LevelsRising housing costs,coupled with pandemic-era income losses,produced the most significant drop in housing affordability in years,as seen in the most recent Census data.Between 2019 and 2021,the number of cost-burdened rentersdefined as those spending more than 30 percent of their income
52、 on housingincreased by 1.2 million to a record 21.6 million households(Figure 4).Among these,11.6 million were severely cost burdened,spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing.Although the share of renter households with cost burdens had been steadily declining in the past decade,the
53、 trend reversed during the pandemic.Between 2019 and 2021,the share of cost-burdened renters grew by 02468022200042005200620072008200920000192020*2021Severely BurdenedModerately BurdenedNotes:Moderately(severely)cost-burdened households spend mo
54、re than 30%(more than 50%)of income on housing.Estimates for 2020 are omitted due to data collection issues experienced during the pandemic.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.Figure 4Number of Cost-Burdened Renters Reached an All-Time High in 2021C
55、ost-Burdened Renter Households(Millions)JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202352.6 percentage points to 49 percent of renter house-holds,approaching the 51 percent peak posted in 2011 in the wake of the Great Recession.Likewise,the number of cost-
56、burdened homeowners increased by 2.3 million to 19.0 million,including 8.7 million who were severely cost burdened in 2021.This increase upturned a years-long decline in the share of home owners with cost burdens and drove the cost-burden rate up by 1.5 percentage points to nearly 23 percent of home
57、owners.In total,40.6 million house-holds were cost burdened in 2021,including 20.3 million who were severely burdened.Predictably,cost burdens affect the vast majority of households with lower incomes,including 86 percent of those with incomes below$15,000 and 68 percent with incomes between$15,000
58、and$29,999.But,cost-burden rates are rising quickly among those higher up the income scale,particularly among renters.Between 2019 and 2021,the share of cost-burdened renters with incomes between$30,000 and$44,999 increased 3 percentage points to 63 percent.Meanwhile,the share of cost-burdened rente
59、rs earning between$45,000 and$74,999 increased by 4 percentage points to 34 percentthe largest increase of any income group.With such high housing costs,many households with lower incomes may struggle to pay for other neces-sities like food,clothes,and healthcare,which have become more expensive as
60、inflation has risen.In 2021,the median renter and homeowner households with incomes under$30,000 had just$380 and$680 per month,respectively,after paying for housing to cover other necessitiesthe lowest residual incomes in two decades.Residential Mobility Shifting Geography of Housing DemandMobility
61、 patterns dominant during the pandemic persisted in 2022,as people continued to move into lower-cost,lower-density areas.Social distancing put a premium on living space and motivated moves to less expensive suburban and rural areas.But as the pandemic has eased,the share of people working from home
62、has remained elevated for many occupations,sustaining demand for housing in lower-cost areas.Urban counties in the nations largest metro areas saw significant population outflows in 2022,though not as severe as in 2021 and partially offset by increased gains from immigration,which more than doubled
63、in these areas over the past year to the highest level since 2016.Meanwhile,counties in suburbs and small metros gained population,largely thanks to an influx of millennials at prime homebuying ages,many of whom have flexible work arrangements and thus less need to live near a large urban job center
64、.Rural areas,too,continued a turnaround in demand and experienced a second year of modest gains from domestic mobility in 2022,with more than half of all rural counties(57 percent)recording more people moving in than out.Longer-distance moves to states with warm climates and lower housing costs also
65、 remained high in 2022.Regionally,the South saw the largest net inflows,led by Texas,Florida,and North Carolina.Some moun-tain states,including Montana and Wyoming,also recorded net gains in movers from other states.As such,domestic migration has become the largest source of population growth in 20
66、states and the largest source of population decline in 23 states.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20236This rise in unsheltered homelessness underscores the need to increase the supply of low-cost perma-nent and supportive housing.While additiona
67、l federal resources are available to address homelessness through the omnibus spending bill and the Amer-ican Rescue Plan Act,appropriations for HUD rental assistance and programs that increase the affordable supply over the longer-term are currently insufficient to meet the scale of the challenge.G
68、rowing Need to Invest in the Existing Housing StockIn addition to expanding the supply of new homes,improving the existing housing supply is critical.Substantial investment will be needed to preserve the aging stock and respond to climate change.At 43 years of age,the median home in 2021 was the old
69、est it has ever been,up from 27 in 1991.The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia estimates that the nations housing stock needs repairs amounting to$149 billion,including$57 billion for homes occupied by house-holds with lower incomes.This investment is partic-ularly necessary for the 9.5 million ho
70、mes that had severe structural deficiencies or lacked basic features like plumbing,electricity,water,and heat in 2021.Further jeopardizing homes is the increasing damage from climate-related disasters.CoreLogic estimates that more than 14.5 million homes were affected by hazards in 2021,amounting to
71、$57 billion in damage.Even more homes are at potential risk,including 60 million units located in areas with at least moderate expected annual losses.Federal programs that help communities and households repair their homes after disasters are crucial for minimizing losses in housing stock.In 2022 al
72、one,the Federal Emergency Manage-ment Association(FEMA)provided$1.9 billion to 1.2 million households through its Individuals and House-holds Program,defraying the cost of home repairs and other recovery needs.Congress also appropriated$10 billion of Community Development Block Grant Unsheltered Hom
73、elessness Rises Despite the many pandemic-inflicted hardships,overall homelessness remained relatively stable during the crisis,according to the most recent point-in-time count from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development(HUD).The number of people experi-encing homelessness on a given nig
74、ht in January 2022 was 582,460,a 0.3 percent(2,000 people)increase from 2020.That homelessness didnt increase more may indicate that government supports limited evic-tions and provided emergency rental assistance.The expiration of renter protections and the looming end of rental assistance could lea
75、ve more people unhoused.While overall homelessness has remained steady so far,the top-line number masks a substantial wors-ening of unsheltered homelessness,defined as the number of people living in places not intended for human habitation.In 2022,unsheltered homeless-ness hit 233,830,a 3.4 percent
76、increase over two years(Figure 5).This reflects a longer-term trend,with the unsheltered population rising 35 percent(60,560 people)from 2015 to 2022.California,Washington,Arizona,Oregon,and Texas had the largest increases in unsheltered homelessness over this period.Notes:People experiencing shelte
77、red homelessness are those staying in emergency shelters,transitional housing programs,or safe havens.People experiencing unsheltered homelessness are those whose primary nighttime location is a place not intended for human habitation.Source:JCHS tabulations of HUD,Annual Homeless Assessment Report
78、Point-in-Time Estimates.Figure 5Unsheltered Homelessness Continued Rising in 2022,Even as Fewer People Stayed in SheltersPeople Experiencing Homelessness(Thousands)UnshelteredSheltered202220202000350400450JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NA
79、TIONS HOUSING 20237Disaster Recovery funds in 20212023 to help commu-nities rebuild after disasters.While these recovery efforts are important,reduced development in high-risk areas,improvements to the stock to mitigate future damage,and better awareness of risk will be needed to adapt to climate ch
80、ange over the long term.Moreover,the housing stock requires modifications to mitigate its impact on climate change given that homes are responsible for 20 percent of US green-house gas emissions.Recent federal efforts to reduce housings contribution to greenhouse gas emissions have been substantial.
81、The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act provided nearly$9 billion for energy-efficiency and electrification rebates and extended the Resi-dential Clean Energy Credit,which helps homeowners offset the costs of renewable energy improvements.A one-time$3.5 billion infusion into the Weatheriza-tion Assistance
82、Program will further support energy-efficiency upgrades for households with lower incomes.Racial Segregation and Its Consequences Persist Racial segregation remains a persistent chal-lenge.Systemic racism and concentrated poverty have resulted in disinvestment in communities of color,reducing access
83、 to quality public and private services and opportunities for financial security and mobility,in turn furthering racial income inequities.As a result,people of color are more likely to live in high-poverty neighborhoods,even if they have higher incomes(Figure 6).Exclusionary zoning contributes to th
84、is continued pattern of residential racial segregation.In many cities and suburbs,zoning favors single-family homes,which are typically owner-occupied and more expensive than multifamily options.This limits opportunities for households and renters with lower incomes,many of whom are people of color.
85、In an effort to address this problem,Washington and Montana recently joined California,Oregon,and Maine in passing legisla-tion to allow more types of housing on land previ-ously zoned exclusively for single-family homes.Notes:High-poverty census tracts are those where at least 20%of the population
86、has incomes below the poverty line,as defined by the official measure of poverty established by the Office of Management and Budget.Individuals in the white category are non-Hispanic.Because Hispanic individuals may be of any race,some other racial categories overlap.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Ce
87、nsus Bureau,2021 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.Figure 6Across Income Levels,People of Color Disproportionately Live in High-Poverty AreasShare of Households Living in High-Poverty Census Tracts(Percent)00BlackNative AmericanHispanicAsianWhiteUnder$30,000$75,000 and OverRace/E
88、thnicityHousehold Income$30,000-74,999JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20238The federal government is also encouraging commu-nities to tackle restrictive land use through$85 million in HUD grants that will help cities identify and imple-ment zoni
89、ng reforms.Equally critical to addressing racial inequities are investments designed to benefit residents of historically underserved communities while avoiding fostering gentrification and displacement.Fair housing plan-ning and enforcement are also needed.In 2023,HUD proposed a new Affirmatively F
90、urthering Fair Housing rule to fulfill the Fair Housing Act of 1968 requirement that the federal government address discrimination and proactively promote inclusive communities.Under the new rule,HUD grantees submit an equity plan every five years that identifies obstacles to fair housing and concre
91、te steps to overcome them.The OutlookThe sharp interest rate hikes over the past year continue to impact housing markets and affordability for both homeowners and renters.Rising mortgage costs have pushed homeownership out of reach for millions of renters at a time when large numbers of millennial h
92、ouseholds are at prime homebuying ages and when homeownership disparities between white households and those of color are near historic highs.Higher interest rates have also sparked a slowdown in the construction of new single-family homes,even as a nationwide housing shortage contributes to high ho
93、using costs.As long as housing remains prohibitively costly for millions of would-be buyers,builders will struggle to expand home production significantly.More lower-cost housing is clearly needed,but expanding development will require zoning reform to support a broader range of housing types and in
94、vestments in off-site construc-tion methods that could reduce development costs.Moving the needle on closing racial homeownership gaps will also require policy interventions to reduce the formidable financial barriers to homeownership.Meanwhile,multifamily construction has remained strong,with a rec
95、ord number of apartments under construction.However,most of this new housing supply targets renters with high incomes,and renters with lower and moderate incomes will likely find little relief.Expanding the supply of modestly priced rentals would help alleviate this strain,although additional subsid
96、ies will be needed to make housing affordable for house-holds with the lowest incomes.Additionally,investments are needed to help property owners adapt the existing housing stock to climate change.The federal government has made a major step in this direction by significantly expanding funding to su
97、pport home improvements that increase energy efficiency.However,to realize the full potential of this funding,state and federal agencies need the ability to implement these programs effectively.The remod-eling industry must also have the capacity to meet this growing demand.Beyond the greening of th
98、e housing stock,it is impera-tive to facilitate investment in distressed communities,where home values often do not support remodeling or new construction.Further investments are needed to accommodate the nations rapidly growing population of older adults.Given that adults ages 75 and older will be
99、the fastest-growing segment of the population in the coming decade,there is an increasing need for housing that supports older adults who wish to safely age in their communities.In the face of ongoing debate about the need to pare back federal spending,now may not seem to be the right time to expand
100、 federal efforts to address the nations housing challenges.But housing is a crucial engine of economic growth,and investments in this important sector pay broader dividends.As the pandemic highlighted,high-quality,stable,and affordable housing is foundational to widespread well-being and,as such,bot
101、h merits and necessitates greater public attention.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 2023902HOUSING MARKE TSAfter reaching record highs during the pandemic,home price and rent growth have fallen through early 2023 as interest rates rose sharply,af
102、fordability worsened,and housing demand softened.In the for-sale market,significantly fewer homes sold in 2022.Despite historically low levels of supply,single-family homebuilding also declined.Likewise,in the professionally managed apartment market,the number of renter households dropped and vacanc
103、y rates returned to pre-pandemic levels.Nevertheless,multifamily development remained robust,with the number of units under construction the highest in half a century.Decelerating Home Price GrowthAs mortgage interest rates rose sharply in 2022,the for-sale housing market cooled rapidly,leading to a
104、 decline in home prices.According to Center tabula-tions of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index,monthly home prices dipped 0.2 percent in January 2023 on a seasonally adjusted basis,the seventh consecutive month of declines following 124 months of growth,before ticking up slightly in Feb
105、ruary.On an annual basis,home prices rose just 2.0 percent year over year in February,down sharply from their peak of 20.8 percent annual growth in March 2022(Figure 7).After adjusting for inflation,real home prices declined 2.8 percent relative to the prior year.Late 2022 was the first decline in r
106、eal home prices in over a decade.Source:JCHS tabulations of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index.Figure 7Despite Slowing Growth,Home Prices Remain Near Record HighsHome Price Index Annual Change(Percent)-10-505000200220Home Price IndexAnnual Change(Right scal
107、e)200000222023JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202310This slowdown was felt in markets across the country.Nominal home prices declined year over year in fully a quarter of the 100 large markets tracked
108、by the Freddie Mac House Price Index in March 2023,compared with zero metros a year earlier.Prices dropped most sharply in previously hot Western markets such as Boise,down 11.8 percent,and Austin,down 8.8 percent,and also fell significantly in Northern California,where the lack of affordability,a s
109、lumping tech sector,and the preva-lence of remote work likely softened demand.While prices rose in the remaining 75 markets,the rate of increase slowed across the board.Despite this slowdown,prices continued to rise in most markets.Knoxville was the lone market with double-digit price growthup 10.5
110、percent year over year in Marchas compared with all 100 metros a year earlier.On an annual basis,home prices rose most rapidly in the South,including Greensboro(8.8 percent),Columbia(8.0 percent),and Charleston(7.8 percent).Some Northeast and Midwest markets experienced similarly swift appreciation,
111、including New Haven(7.5 percent),Syracuse(7.1 percent),Youngstown(7.1 percent),and Omaha(6.9 percent).Although national home prices have declined in the past several months,they have risen astoundingly when measured from the start of the pandemic.Between February 2020 and February 2023,nominal home
112、prices jumped a stunning 37.5 percent,or 17.5 percent after accounting for inflation.Over the longer term,nominal home prices since 2010 have more than doubledrising 102.2 percentwhile real home prices have climbed 51.5 percent.That said,increased interest rates have also led to significantly higher
113、 monthly payments for potential homebuyers,and demand has cooled in response.As long as interest rates remain elevated,home price growth will likely continue to slow.But prices are unlikely to plummet like they did during the Great Recession thanks to the combination of the strong job market,the con
114、tinued aging of millennials into peak homebuying years,the dearth of housing available for purchase,and the low foreclosure rate.Persistent Shortage of For-Sale Housing Contributes to Declining Home SalesThe number of homes available for sale remained near historic lows in early 2023,driven by a dec
115、ade-long slowdown in the construction of single-family housing that preceded the pandemic,the growing population of older adults who are less likely to move,and the lack of available inventory for would-be sellers.According to the Housing Vacancy Survey,homeowner vacancy rates remained at 0.8 percen
116、t in the first quarter of 2023,tied for the lowest reading since data became available in the mid-1950s,and under 1.0 percent for the ninth consecutive quarter.Tight vacancies have meant limited options for poten-tial buyers.Just 970,000 existing homes were for sale in March 2023,according to data f
117、rom the National Association of Realtors,42 percent less than March 2019,when supply was already constrained(Figure 8).Nevertheless,this volume represents an uptick from the all-time lows experienced during the pandemic.The months of supplyhow long it would take all homes on the market to sell at th
118、e current sales ratealso remained low.Just 2.6 months of inventory was avail-able in March,up from 2.0 months a year earlier but still down from the 3.8 months available in March 2019 and far short of the 6.0 months that indicates a balanced market.Inventories have remained low in part because many
119、homeowners may be disinclined to move in the face of rising interest rates.According to the FHFA National Mortgage Database,nearly two-thirds of outstanding residential mortgages carry an interest rate of less than 4 percent,including one-quarter of mortgages with interest rates below 3 percentsigni
120、ficantly lower than the 67 percent averaged on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in early 2023.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202311Consequently,the number of new listings continued to decline into early 2023,dropping 16 percent in the first quarte
121、r,according to R.Instead,growth in overall inventory has been due to homes remaining on the market longer.On average,homes were on the market for a median of 65 days in the first quarter of 2023,up from 47 days the year before but far short of the 81 days recorded in the first quarter of 2019.With s
122、uch limited existing inventory,new construction has become an increasingly large share of housing available for purchase.In March 2023,425,000 new single-family homes were available for sale,up just 5 percent from the year before but up 28 percent from the same period in 2019.New homes were about a
123、third of single-family home inventory at the start of the year,nearing the all-time high set in 2022.The constrained supply,along with rising interest rates and eroding affordability,contributed to a sharp decline in home sales last year.According to Center tabulations of data from the National Asso
124、ciation of Realtors,existing home sales dropped 18 percent in 2022 to 5.0 million,including a 17 percent decline in single-family home sales,to 4.5 million,and a 23 percent decline in condo/co-op sales,to 546,000 units.Sales of newly built single-family homes also fell.In 2022,641,000 new homes sold
125、,down 17 percent from the year prior and well below the pandemic peak of 822,000 in 2020.The slowdown in existing sales hastened throughout 2022 as the effect of rising interest rates took hold.Seasonally adjusted existing home sales declined just 4 percent in the first quarter of 2022 relative to t
126、he first quarter one year earlier but 32 percent in the fourth quarter of that same year.In January 2023,the season-ally adjusted rate of existing home sales was just 4.0 million units,down 37 percent from the year prior and the lowest since 2010.As interest rates stabilized in early 2023,so,too,did
127、 the sales rate,which ticked up to 4.4 million units in March.Notes:Months of supply measures how long it would take homes on the market to sell at the current rate.Six months is typically considered a balanced market.Source:JCHS tabulations of NAR,Existing Home Sales.Figure 8Supply of Homes for Sal
128、e Remained Near Record Lows in Early 2023Existing Homes for Sale in March(Thousands)Months of Supply02468,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002003200520072009200023Existing Homes for Sale in MarchMonths of Supply(Right scale)JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVER
129、SITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202312Investor Demand for Single-Family Homes Softens but Remains StrongInvestor activity in the housing market skyrocketed during the pandemic as interest rates hit record lows and home price and rent growth reached all-time highs.But,as interest rates rose in l
130、ate 2022,investor home purchases fell significantly.According to Core-Logic,purchases of single-family homes by investors who simultaneously owned three or more properties within the past 10 years declined by 25 percent year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022.Nevertheless,investor purchases rem
131、ained a high share of total sales because owner-occupant homebuying fell just as sharply.Investors bought 26 percent of single-family homes in the fourth quarter of 2022,just shy of the record-high 28 percent share recorded in early 2022 and well above the 16 percent share averaged in the three year
132、s immediately preceding the pandemic.Investor activity in the housing market can exacer-bate inventory shortages and limit homeownership opportunities for owner-occupant buyers by reducing the available supply,especially in markets where investor activity is highest.According to CoreLogic,investors
133、purchased a third or more of single-family homes in Los Angeles,Memphis,and Salt Lake City,among others,in the fourth quarter of last year.And in one 2007-2016 study of home sales in metro Atlanta,large institutional investors accounted for up to three-quarters of annual single-family home sales in
134、some neighborhoods.Investor activity in these neighbor-hoods was associated with a decline in homeowner-ship for Black households in particular.Likewise,investor activity influences the single-family rental market.According to CoreLogic,about 16 percent of investor purchases in the summer of 2022 we
135、re resold within six months,in line with histor-ical averages.Many of the remaining homes were likely rented to tenants,and the implications of this activity for renter households are still unfolding.On the one hand,large single-family rental operators can provide higher value and potential cost sav
136、ings to renters through more professionalized property management.Moreover,they might increase access to rental housing in a wider variety of neighborhoods,including those typically less accessible to renters.On the other hand,research indicates that at least some of these investors might more aggre
137、ssively pursue evictions,and their activity is associated with increased rents.Cooling Rent Growth As in the for-sale market,a substantial drop in demand in the second half of 2022 cooled rental markets.According to RealPage data,asking rents in the profes-sionally managed apartment sector have mode
138、rated significantly after rising 15.3 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2022,an all-time high in data dating back more than 20 years.By the first quarter of 2023,rents rose 4.5 percent annually,just above the 3.6 percent average annual growth between 2015 and 2019.But even with the slow
139、down,rents have risen a stunning 23.9 percent between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2023.The slowdown in rent growth was evident across the country.Asking rents in the first quarter of 2023 declined outright year over year in two of the 50 large markets consistently tracked by R
140、ealPage:Phoenix,down 1.9 percent,and Las Vegas,down 1.0 percent.Asking rents in both markets had risen about 25 percent annually in early 2022.Though rents increased in the remaining 48 markets,the rate of rent growth slowed as compared with a year earlier.Beyond previously hot markets in the West,r
141、ent growth moderated most precipitously in parts of Florida.Asking rents in West Palm Beach,Tampa,and Fort Lauderdale each rose over 27 percent annually in the first quarter of 2022,but less than 6 percent annually in the first quarter of 2023.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTH
142、E STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202313Despite the widespread slowdown,rents still rose substantially in some markets(Figure 9).Asking rents rose 5 percent or more annually in 21 markets in the first quarter,still high but lower than last year,when they rose in all 50 markets.Rents increased the most
143、year over year in Miami(9.5 percent)and growth was also strong in some of the more affordable markets in the Midwest and Northeast,including Cincinnati(8.2 percent),Newark(8.2 percent),and Indianapolis(7.7 percent).Similar to apartment trends,rent growth for single-family homes cooled significantly
144、from pandemic-era record highs.According to CoreLogic,single-family rents in March 2023 rose 4.3 percent year over year,still somewhat higher than the pre-pandemic rate though down from the 13.6 percent growth experienced a year earlier.-5051015202530PhoenixSan DiegoMiamiAtlantaPhiladelphiaNewarkCin
145、cinnatiMinneapolis2022:12023:1WestSouthNortheastMidwestNotes:Asking rents are for professionally managed apartments in buildings with five or more units.Figure shows the markets in each region with the lowest and highest annual change in asking rents in the first quarter of 2023.Source:JCHS tabulati
146、ons of RealPage data.Figure 9Across the Country,Rent Growth Slowed in Early 2023Year-over-Year Change in Asking Rents(Percent)Unlike most other indicators,the pace of rent growth from the Consumer Price Index(CPI)continued to accelerate in early 2023,rising 8.8 percent annually in March 2023,double
147、the growth rate a year earlier and the highest rate in more than 40 years.This discrepancy relative to the sharp slowdown in gains among professionally managed apartments is partly explained by the CPI being a lagging indicator that estimates rents for the entire rental stock.Rising rents in the CPI
148、 show that many renters are still experiencing substantial rent growth as old leases turn over and rents reset at higher levels,and is an important indi-cator of inflation for the Federal Reserve to consider when deciding the course of interest rate increases.However,the softening of other rent indi
149、cators suggest that CPI rents will likely also slow in the future,which would be good news for those hoping for relief from todays higher interest rates.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202314Rising Rental VacanciesNew leasing traffic plunged in
150、the second half of 2022,according to data from RealPage,leading to the first drop in annual apartment demand since 2009 despite high retention rates.Leasing then ticked up only slightly in early 2023,as the professionally managed apart-ment market added just 19,000 new renters on net in the first qu
151、artermodestly reversing recent declines but the weakest first quarter in a decade.As a result,177,000 renters left the market on net over the past year,following a 698,000 increase one year earlier amid the pandemic surge(Figure 10).The decline in leasing,combined with new construc-tion focusing on
152、the high end of the market,pushed apartment vacancy rates back to recent norms.After falling to a record-low 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022,vacancy rates in the professionally managed apartment sector have subsequently increased every quarter.By the first quarter of 2023,vacancy rates had
153、climbed to 5.2 percent,a full 2.7 percentage points Note:Data are for professionally managed apartment buildings with five or more units.Source:JCHS tabulations of RealPage data.Figure 10Demand for Professionally Managed Apartments Fell Sharply into Early 2023Annual Change in Occupied Rental Units(T
154、housands)-3004005006007008002001820202022higher than the year before and above the 4.8 percent vacancy rate averaged in 20152019.Vacancy rate increases were widespread,rising year over year in the first quarter of 2023 in 148 of the 150 markets tracked by RealPage,including
155、117 markets with increases of at least 2 percentage points.Nationally,vacancies remained lowest in less expen-sive market segments,where less new supply is coming online.The vacancy rate in more affordable Class C apartments was just 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023,lower than the 5.6 percen
156、t vacancy rate in higher-quality Class A apartments.Likewise,vacancies in the broader rental market ticked up in the first quarter,but remained near the decades-low set during the pandemic.According to Center tabu-lations of the Housing Vacancy Survey,6.4 percent of all rental units were vacant in t
157、he first quarter of 2023,up 0.6 percentage point from a year earlier.Still,such low vacancy rates have not been recorded since the mid-1980s,aside from the pandemic and one reading at the end of 2019.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202315Slowing
158、 New Construction In both the for-sale and rental markets,significant amounts of new construction are required to alleviate the supply shortages.However,housing production declined modestly in 2022,driven by a sharp slowdown in single-family homebuilding.The number of newly started housing units fel
159、l from 1.60 million in 2021 to 1.55 million in 2022,a small but significant 3.0 percent decline in the context of the nations housing shortfall.Similarly,the number of permitted units declined 4.1 percent to 1.67 million in 2022.However,in the near term,more supply is coming online as the number of
160、housing units completed continued to rise 3.7 percent to 1.39 million units last year.In the single-family market,construction dropped precipitously in 2022,after climbing to the highest level in 15 years in 2021.Just 1.01 million single-family homes were started last year,down 10.8 percent from a y
161、ear earlier.The decline in construction was much starker in the second half of the year,as interest rate increases took hold.From January through June 2022,the seasonally adjusted,annualized rate of single-family housing starts was 1.13 million units,up 1.7 percent on average from the previous year.
162、But from July through December 2022,the rate of single-family starts was just 876,000 units,down 23.2 percent,and remained at an 830,000-unit pace in the first quarter of 2023.Most new units target the high end of the market.The median sales price for newly built single-family homes was$457,800 in 2
163、022,up an inflation-adjusted 23 percent since 2019.Likewise,the production of smaller,typically less expensive,single-family units remains historically low.In 2021,just 236,000 homes under 1,800 square feet were built,less than a quarter of all single-family home completions.By comparison,smaller si
164、ngle-family homes repre-sented 37 percent of new units as recently as 1999.Manufactured housing,with an average sales price in 2022 of just$127,000 excluding land,provides a more affordable alternative to site-built housing.However,just 113,000 manufactured homes shipped in 2022.By comparison,annual
165、 manufactured home production averaged 247,000 units in the 1980s and 302,000 units in the 1990s.In contrast,the multifamily construction sector was extraordinarily resilient in 2022.The number of multi-family starts rose 15.5 percent from an already-high 474,000 units in 2021 to 547,000 units in 20
166、22the highest level since 1986.The seasonally adjusted rate of multifamily starts remained strong throughout the year,averaging 540,000550,000 units in both the first and the second halves of the year.The number of multifamily units under construction continues to reach new heights,driven by the str
167、ong multifamily sector and the growing time required to complete such units as the costs of building mate-rials rise and larger urban-infill apartments dominate production.Of the nearly 1.7 million housing units under construction in March 2023,fully 960,000 were in multi-family structures(Figure 11
168、).This number represents an increase from 818,000 units a year earlier and is the highest rate of multifamily units under construction in almost 50 years.Given the glut of apartments under construction and rising vacancies in the professionally managed apartment sector,multifamily construction is li
169、kely to moderate going forward.Already,the Federal Reserve Boards Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices reported tighter lending standards and weaker demand for multifamily loans and commercial real estate construction loans.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSI
170、TYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202308001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8000242008201220162020Single-FamilyTotalMultifamilySource:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,New Residential Construction.Figure 11Construction Pipeline Hovers Near Record High in Early 202
171、3,Fueled by Multifamily DevelopmentAnnualized Units Under Construction(Thousands,seasonally adjusted)The OutlookThe for-sale and rental markets will likely continue to moderate through 2023.On the for-sale side,the significant rise in interest rates over the past year has more than offset the declin
172、e in home price growth,keeping homebuyer costs high and cooling demand.Additionally,homeowners with lower interest rates will be reluctant to sell their homes,holding back inventory growth.In a market with such limited homebuying options,more new construction is needed to provide potential buyers wi
173、th options at a variety of price points and to address the long-term undersupply of housing.Encouragingly,measures of homebuilder sentiment have rebounded strongly in recent months.Still,changes in interest rates are key,and persistently higher rates would remain a significant drag on new constructi
174、on.In the rental market,slowing rent growth and rising vacancies,especially in high-cost market segments,will likely lead to a slowdown in new apartment construction.But even as the abundance of mostly high-end apartment units under construction reaches the market,it remains unclear how much relief
175、this will provide for households with low and moderate incomes.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20231703DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERSHousehold growth remained high in 2022,driven largely by a surge in millennial household formation pent up since the Great
176、Recession.However,the drivers of household growth are now likely receding,leaving record-low levels of population growth that will slow household growth going forward.Mean-while,wide regional variation in housing affordability,combined with a rise in remote work,is spurring domestic migration,in tur
177、n shifting the geography of housing demand.As the US population ages and diversifies,the need to ensure equitable access to high-quality,affordable housing and communities becomes even more urgent.Rapid Household Growth Continues but Slowing AheadDespite rising housing costs and growing economic unc
178、ertainty,the number of US households grew by 1.6 million in 2022,continuing a period of strong house-hold growth that started in 2017(Figure 12).This recent surge has been driven by high rates of new house-hold formation among millennials.Though the rate of millennial household formation started to
179、recover before the pandemic,the financial conditions in late 2020 and 2021,including the federal stimulus and the suspension of student loan payments,helped young adults to afford to live on their own,particularly many older millennials forced to postpone independent living since the Great Recession
180、.Growth in households headed by people ages 3544 more than doubled from 210,000 per year in 20172019 to 560,000 per year in 20192022.In combination with a steady increase in the number of older households,this acceleration in younger household growth helped to push overall US household growth to the
181、 highest levels in decades.Nevertheless,the household growth rate in 2022 represents a slowdown from the 2.0 million annual average between 2019 and 2021,and likely signals that the recent surge is waning.Likewise,the share of Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Housing Vacancy Surveys.Figur
182、e 12Household Growth Slowed in 2022 but Remained Above Pre-Pandemic LevelsAverage Annual Growth in Households(Thousands)02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0-20-20-2022young adults who head their own householdsalso called the headship ratehas recovere
183、d much of the ground lost in the decade following the Great Reces-sion,indicating that there is little room for these rates to rise higher.Because this pent-up demand has been largely satisfied,household growth will likely slow going forward,fueled by native population growth,which is at a near-reco
184、rd low,and immigration,which is inher-ently mired in politics and therefore is unpredictable.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202318Historically Low Population GrowthPopulation growth is the primary long-term driver of household growth and remain
185、s historically low.Overall,the US population grew by 1.26 million people in 2022,or just 0.38 percent.While this represents a slight uptick from previous yearspopulation growth hit 100-year lows in 2019 and again in both 2020 and 2021it is nevertheless a meager growth rate when compared with the 2.8
186、 million annual average(0.94 percent)in the 2000s.In fact,if not for the 0.35 percent rate of growth in 2020 and the 0.16 percent growth rate in 2021,the 2022 growth rate would have marked a new 100-year low.Population growth is generated by either“natural”growththe net of births minus deathsor immi
187、gra-tion.Gains from immigration can be fickle because they are subject to unpredictable policy changes and economic cycles in the US as well as other countries.Natural growth,on the other hand,is more predict-able because it is driven by slow-moving factors like birth and mortality rates.Until recen
188、tly,natural growth has been the primary source of population growth in the US.Throughout the 2000s and early 2010s,natural growth gradually slowed from 1.7 million to 1.4 million per year while net gains from immigration fluctuated between 800,000 and 1.2 million.Then,in the late 2010s,both natural
189、growth and immigration plummeted,with annual gains from immigration ultimately dipping below 400,000 and natural growth dropping to less than 150,000 in 2021.At last measure in 2022,annual gains from immigration rebounded to 1.0 million while annual gains from natural growth remained a modest 245,00
190、0(Figure 13),highlighting both how quickly immigration can change and the persistence of the slowdown in natural growth.Indeed,deaths are projected to outnumber births beginning in 2043,according to the Congressional Budget Office,at which point population growth will rely entirely upon immi-gration
191、.Recent estimates suggest we may reach that point much sooner.Figure 13Population Growth Still Near Record Lows in 2022,Despite a Rebound in ImmigrationAnnual Population Change(Millions)Note:Natural population change is the difference between births and deaths.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bu
192、reau,Population Estimates Program.0.00.51.01.52.02.5200002020212022Natural Population ChangeNet ImmigrationJOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202319Population and Household Growth Depending on ImmigrationWhile immig
193、ration has recently emerged as the primary source of population growth nationwide,it has long been the largest driver in many areas across the country.In 2022,immigration was the largest source of population growth for 26 states and nearly a third(29 percent)of all counties(Figure 14),and has helped
194、 stabilize declining populations in both small rural counties and large urban counties experiencing net domestic outmigration of native-born residents.Growth in immigrant-headed households accounted for more than a third(35 percent)of all household growth between 2002 and 2022,raising the share of h
195、ouseholds headed by an immigrant from 14 percent in 2002 to 17 percent in 2022.Immigrants make up even higher shares of households in some states,repre-senting 33 percentfully one-thirdof households in California,27 percent in New Jersey,and 21 percent in Texas.Immigrants also headed large shares of
196、 house-holds in select metro areas,including 48 percent of households in the Miami metro,40 percent in the Los Notes:Natural population change is the difference between births and deaths.“All negative”means that each component of population change was negative in 20212022.Source:JCHS tabulations of
197、US Census Bureau,2022 Population Estimates Program.Figure 14Immigration Was the Largest Source of Population Growth in Nearly a Third of Counties in 2022Largest Component of County Population Growth,2021-2022ImmigrationDomestic MigrationNatural ChangeAll Negative Angeles metro,and 35 percent in the
198、New York City metro.As a significant driver of household growth,immigrants are a large source of new housing demand.Immigrants constitute an extremely racially and economically diverse demographic.Overall,43 percent of immigrant householders are Hispanic,26 percent are Asian,19 percent are white,and
199、 10 percent are Black.And while high shares of immigrant workers are have low levels of education,increasing numbers are highly educated.Among recent immigrants who have entered the country since 2016,20 percent of foreign-born adults ages 25 and older lack a high school education,in contrast to 7 p
200、ercent of native-born adults.However,47 percent of immigrants have a bachelors degree or higher,compared with just 35 percent of native-born adults.Unsurprisingly,immi-grants with more skills and education generally earn higher incomes and are better positioned to form new households,buy homes,and a
201、fford different areas than their counterparts with less income,illustrating the need for more diverse housing options to meet the full range of housing demand from immigrants.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202320Residential Mobility and the Shi
202、fting Geography of Housing Demand As the rate of population growth slows,domestic migration will become a more important driver of household growth and housing demand.Already,domestic migration was the largest source of popula-tion growth in 20 states and in the majority of counties that experienced
203、 growth in 2022.Suburbs,rural areas,and smaller metrosmost of which have relatively more affordable home pricesare attracting a growing number of residents,while many larger,higher-cost urban areas are losing resi-dents.Some of this shift has been accelerated by the pandemic-induced opportunity to w
204、ork remotely,but longer-term changes in housing affordability,the age distribution of the population,and a host of other factors that predate the pandemic are also helping to change the places people are moving to and from.On a regional scale,states in the South and Moun-tain West gained population
205、from interstate moves in 2022,with Florida,Texas,and North and South Carolina posting high net inflows,as was the case before the pandemic.Further mimicking pre-pandemic trends,California,New York,and Illinois saw the largest number of net moves out of state.The biggest difference in 2022 relative t
206、o 2019 is that in 2022,the population gains in Southern states grew larger,while losses increased in states along the Pacific coast and in the Northeast.For example,the population gains from net moves into Florida more than doubled,from 139,000 in 2019 to 319,000 in 2022,while population losses from
207、 net moves out of California jumped over 50 percent,from 208,000 in 2019 to 340,000 in 2022.Similarly,county-level migration patterns remained consistent,though they were generally larger in magnitude than before the pandemic(Figure 15).Urban counties in large metros with populations over 1 million
208、lost more people from moves in 2022 than in 2019,while counties in smaller metros gained more people.Meanwhile,nonmetro counties posted popu-Notes:Large metro areas have at least 1 million residents.Core counties contain either the largest city in the metro area or any city with at least 250,000 res
209、idents.Non-core counties are all other counties in large metro areas.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Population Estimates Program.Figure 15Moves from Core Counties to Smaller and Rural Markets Accelerated During the PandemicNet Domestic Migration(Thousands)County Location20022
210、-1,200-1,000-800-600-600Large MetroCoreLarge MetroNon-CoreAll OtherMetrosNon-MetroAreaslation gains from domestic migration,reversing the pre-pandemic trend of decline.Gains occurred in a majority of these rural counties(57 percent),a rare event in decades of net urbanization.Some of t
211、his shift in geography,particularly the increase in moves to smaller metros and rural areas,may be related to the pandemic-fueled rise in remote work.Between 2019 and 2021,the share of the workforce reporting that they usually worked from home tripled from 6 percent to 18 percent.Among younger worke
212、rs ages 2534,rates of working from home more than quadrupled from 4 percent to 18 percent.Given that younger adults have the highest mobility rates and that remote workers were more likely than commuters to move,the increase in working from home among younger workers likely contributed greatly to th
213、e recent rise in interstate mobility.In 2021,fully 29 percent of householders ages 2534 who worked from home had moved in the past year,compared with 21 percent of commuters of the same ages.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202321That said,survey
214、s continue to show that,on net,inter-state and intercounty mobility rates at best only inched upward in 2022.And,within-county moveswhich account for the vast majority of household movescontinued to decline as they have for decades.In all,since 2010 the share of households moving outside their count
215、y each year has held at roughly 3.43.9 percent,with the interstate component hovering between 1.9 percent and 2.4 percent.Meanwhile,the share of households moving within their county dropped by nearly half,from 8.3 percent in 2010 to 4.8 percent in 2022.This decline in local mobility results in fewe
216、r homes available for sale or rent and less spending on pre-and post-move renovations,furnishings,and other services,and has shrunk the overall residential mobility rate.According to Current Population Survey data,the total share of households that reported having moved in the past 12 monthslocal or
217、 otherwisefell from 11.9 percent in 2010 to 9.8 percent in 2019 and then again to 8.8 percent in 2022.US Households Growing Older and Increasingly Diverse Rapid growth in the older adult population is shifting the age composition of US households.Thanks to the baby boomers,the number of householders
218、 ages 65 and older grew by nearly 40 percent between 2012 and 2022 to a whopping 35 million households.Fully 27 percent of all householdsand a third of all home-owner householdsare now headed by someone age 65 or older.And with the oldest baby boomers having turned 75 in 2021,the highest rates of gr
219、owth are shifting to the oldest age groups,who have substan-tially greater accessibility needs(Figure 16).There has been a parallel increase in smaller households,such as older single-person households and married couples living alone.As more of the older adult popu-lation chooses to age in the comm
220、unity,demand is increasing for smaller housing,accessibility features such as single-floor living,and services delivered to the home.At the same time,increases in multigen-erational households are driving interest in flexible housing designs spacious enough to accommodate larger family households.So
221、urce:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Housing Vacancy Surveys.Figure 16Older Adults Are Increasingly Driving Household GrowthChange in Households(Millions)Age of Household Head-2-101234Under 2525293034353940444549505455596064707475 and Over-20226569JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES O
222、F HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202322Meanwhile,the millennial generationthe largest generation in historyis aging into prime childbearing years,increasing the need for larger units affordable to younger families.Over the past decade,the number of households headed by someone ag
223、es 2544 increased by 10 percent3.7 million householdshelping to grow the number of young family house-holds with children after a decade of decline.That said,this generation is also large enough to increase the number of smaller households,too,as their lower rates of marriage and childbearing are gr
224、owing the numbers of young single-person households and unmarried childless partner households.Additionally,new,younger households are helping to make US households more racially and ethnically diverse.As of 2022,while 35 percent of all house-holds were headed by a person of color,up from just 25 pe
225、rcent in 2000,people of color accounted for 44 percent of households ages 2534 and 42 percent of households ages 3544,as compared with 35 percent of households ages 4564,and 24 percent of house-holds ages 65 and older.People of color accounted for about 85 percent of household growth over the past 1
226、0 years,including 42 percent of total household growth from Hispanic households,18 percent from Black households,and 25 percent from Asian house-holds or households of another race.Going forward,people of color are expected to drive the majority of both population and household growth,while the olde
227、r households lost will primarily be white.This increasing diversity has numerous potential impli-cations for housing markets.While people of color head households of all income levels,larger shares of households headed by people of color are lower income.Consequently,the need for more affordable hou
228、sing options in a broad range of communities will only grow,as will the need to ensure fair access to these units and neighborhoods.Income and Wealth Inequality Persist Incomes have grown significantly in the past decade.According to 2022 Current Population Survey data,real median household income r
229、ose from$60,200 in 2011 to$70,200 in 2021,with particularly large gains among people of color,helping to reduce racial inequalities.During this period,median incomes rose 28 percent among Asian households,26 percent among Hispanic households,and 25 percent among Black households,as compared with 18
230、percent among white house-holds.Nevertheless,enormous racial income dispar-ities persist.At last measure,the median income for white households was$78,000,which was 35 percent higher than the$57,900 median for Hispanic house-holds and 62 percent higher than the$48,100 median for Black households.Onl
231、y Asian households,with a median income of$101,000 in 2021,had incomes that exceeded white households.Households with low incomes,which are dispropor-tionately headed by people of color,are more likely to be disadvantaged in housing markets because they are more likely to be cost burdened,less likel
232、y to live in opportunity-rich neighborhoods,and less likely to meet the income and downpayment requirements for homeownership.Against this backdrop,it is easy to draw a line from long-standing income inequality to even more dramatic and entrenched racial wealth disparities.According to the latest Su
233、rvey of Consumer Finances from 2019,the median net wealth for white households was$189,100,more than five times the$36,000 median for Hispanic households,nearly eight times the$24,100 median for Black households,and over two and a half times the$74,500 median for households of all other races,includ
234、ing Asian.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202323These wealth disparities both reflect and perpetuate homeownership disparities.Home equity is often the largest source of household wealth but,at the same time,the lack of wealth in the form of a d
235、ownpayment is commonly the greatest barrier to homeownership.Black and Hispanic renters had a median of just$800 and$1,000 in cash savings,respectively,less than half the$2,200 reported for white renters,and well below the amount needed for a down payment on a modestly priced home in most areas.Grow
236、ing inequality in wealth also contributes to the ability of households with higher incomes to bid up overall housing costs and exacerbates housing afford-ability challenges.Data show that the median wealth of households in the top income quartile grew by 27 percent between 2010 and 2019,to$627,000,w
237、hile the median wealth of households in the bottom income quartile grew just 10 percent to$10,700,making it that much easier for those with moreand that much harder for those with lessto secure housing.The OutlookThe pandemic era of rapid household growth,fueled by the release of pent-up demand from
238、 millennials to form their own households,appears to be nearing an end as headship rates among most age groups have recovered much of the losses incurred since the Great Recession.Going forward,population growth will once again become the main driver of household growth,as has been the case for deca
239、des.However,population growth is at a near-record low,with little sign of recovery on the horizon.Birth rates are declining and mortality rates are rising,consistent with the aging of the enormous generation of baby boomers,many of whom are in their mid-70s.Consequently,low population growth is like
240、ly for the foreseeable future,leading to both a reduction in household growth and an increased reliance on international and domestic migration to fuel new household formations.Looking to the future,one of the primary drivers of domestic migration,and in turn the geography of housing demand,will be
241、remote work,and here trends are still evolving.Some workers are returning to the office,others are continuing to work from home,and still others are employing some combination of the two.Regardless,it is clear that the aging and growing diversity of the population,coupled with some workers increasin
242、gly flexible work options,will change the shape of housing demand and necessitate housing adaptations.These include additional options for older households seeking to remain in their communities and homes in a broad range of communities and at a broad range of price points for a diverse array of hou
243、seholds of all ages,races,and income groups.Further,in the face of persistent and growing racial wealth and income disparities,the need for safe,affordable housing for households with lower incomes and households of color is ever more urgent.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE
244、STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20232404Homeownership has become much more expensive in the wake of last years sharp rise in interest rates.While the homeownership rate increased in 2022,by the end of the year the higher costs appeared to be taking a toll as the rate of homeownership growth slowed.Mean
245、while,many homeowners thrived,with home equity levels hitting new highs and delinquency and foreclosure rates remaining low.That said,aggregate data may somewhat mask the distress experienced by more financially vulnerable home-owners,underscoring the continued and urgent need to reduce the nations
246、gaping racial homeownership disparities and expand access to affordable homeownership among people of color,especially in light of the increased cost of homebuying.HOMEOWNERSHIPHigh Costs of Homeownership Price Out Many Potential BuyersDespite softening prices and week-to-week volatility in mortgage
247、 interest rates in early 2023,the costs of homeownership remain significantly higher than a year ago,pricing many potential buyers out of the market.Between March of 2022 and March of 2023,the annual interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped from an average of 4.2 percent to an average o
248、f 6.5 percent,a level not seen since 2008.Meanwhile,home prices have started to decline,though not nearly enough to counteract the impact of increased interest rates on costs.In March 2023,the US median existing home price was$375,400,down 1.0 percent year over year and 9.3 percent from its mid-2022
249、 peak.Nevertheless,monthly mortgage payments on the median-priced home in March 2023 were up by 20 percent,or more than$500 higher than in March 2022,due to the rise in interest rates(Figure 17).These increased costs have left millions of house-holds unable to afford to buy a home.As of March 2023,m
250、onthly mortgage payments on the US medi-Note:Estimates assume a 3.5%downpayment on a 30-year fixed-rate loan,0.85%mortgage insurance,0.35%property insurance,1.15%property taxes,3%closing costs,and a maximum 31%debt-to-income ratio.Source:JCHS tabulations of Freddie Mac,Primary Mortgage Market Survey
251、s;NAR,Existing Home Sales.Figure 17Higher Interest Rates Eroded Affordability over the Past YearMarch 2022March 2023Percent ChangeInterest Rate(Percent)4.26.5+57Median Home Price(Dollars)379,300375,400-1Downpayment&Closing Costs24,70024,400-1Monthly Mortgage Payment1,7802,300+29Total Monthly Owner C
252、osts2,5003,000+20Required Annual Income97,400117,100+20an-priced homeassuming a 30-year mortgage and a 3.5 percent downpaymentwere$2,300,with prop-erty taxes and insurance costs boosting it to$3,000 per month.Assuming an underwriting model in which all debt is capped at 43 percent of monthly house-h
253、old income,of which non-housing debt payments account for 12 percent and mortgage,insurance,and tax payments are capped at 31 percent,the JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202325In a growing number of metros,these rising costs pushed homebuying ou
254、t of reach for all households but those with the highest incomes.From the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023,the share of metros requiring an annual income of at least$100,000 to afford payments on the median-priced home more than doubled,from 16 percent to 38 percent.Whereas last ye
255、ar,home prices in the typical metro required an annual income of$67,000 for payments to be afford-able,a year later the required income has jumped to$86,000.Homeowner Cost Burdens SkyrocketAs homebuyer affordability has deteriorated,cost burdens among current homeowners have climbed sharply.Between
256、2019 and 2021,the number of home-owners spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs jumped by 2.3 million households,the largest increase in cost-burdened homeowners since the height of the housing boom in 20052007(Figure 18).As a result,19.0 million homeowner households,or 22.7 p
257、ercent,were burdened by monthly housing costs in 2021,of which 8.7 million(10.4 percent of all homeowners)had housing costs that exceeded 50 percent of their income.Notes:Moderately(severely)cost-burdened households spend more than 30%(more than 50%)of income on housing.Estimates for 2020 are omitte
258、d due to data collection issues experienced during the pandemic.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.Figure 18Number of Cost-Burdened Homeowners Rose Sharply in 2021,a First Since the Mid-2000sCost-Burdened Homeowner Households(Millions)Severely Burd
259、enedModerately Burdened02468022242000420052006200720082009200001920202021annual income needed to afford payments on the median-priced home rose over the past year by 20 percent from$97,400 to$117,100.As a result,the number of renter households a
260、ble to afford these higher payments shrunk by 32 percent,from 7.5 million to 5.1 million,a loss of 2.4 million potential homebuyers.Because interest rates increased nationwide,would-be homebuyers in every corner of the country felt these increased costs,although the scale varied by market.In the 177
261、 metros whose median home prices are reported by the National Association of Realtors,monthly payments on the median-priced home were up anywhere from 4 percent to 44 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2023between$50 and$1,400 per monthdepending on the metro,with a median increase of 28
262、percent,or$500.Notably,costs rose even where home prices them-selves declined,such as in the San Francisco metro area.There,the monthly payment on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for a median-priced home increased 8 percent$630 per monthbetween the first quarters of 2022 and 2023,even as the median si
263、ngle-family home price in the area dipped 14.5 percent.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202326Homeownership Rates ClimbDespite rising costs,the number of homeowner house-holds rose in 2022,though at a slower pace than in previous years.Housing Va
264、cancy Survey data show the number of homeowner households increased by 1.5 million between 2021 and 2022,slower than the rapid 1.9 million average annual growth rate observed between 2019 and 2021 but still greater than the rate heading into the pandemic(Figure 19).Consequently,the Housing Vacancy S
265、urvey indicates the US homeownership rate grew to 65.8 percent in 2022,up from 65.5 percent a year earlier and continuing the six years of consecutive homeown-ership growth started in the aftermath of the Great Recession,after rates bottomed out at 63.4 percent in 2016.Younger households were the pr
266、imary drivers of the increase.For households under age 35,home-ownership rates rose by 0.8 percent in 20212022 to 39.0 percent,and have now risen 2.3 percentage points since 2019.Likewise,homeownership rates for those ages 3544 also increased,up 2.1 percentage points since 2019,to 62.2 percent,as mo
267、re millennials entered the market after experiencing financial constraints during the Great Recession that forced them to delay homeownership.Homeowner HouseholdsHomeownership Rate(Right scale)606676869706567697838520022003200420052006200720082009200016201
268、7200212022Note:Estimates for 2020 are omitted due to data collection issues experienced during the pandemic.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Housing Vacancy Surveys.Figure 19Growth in Homeowner Households Continued to Lift Homeownership Rates in 2022Homeowner Households(Million
269、s)Homeownership Rate(Percent)Over half of the increase in cost-burdened home-owners between 2019 and 2021 was among households with the lowest incomes,earning less than$30,000 annually.As a result,the cost-burden rate among this group of homeowners grew 3.2 percentage points between 2019 and 2021,to
270、 68.6 percent.Furthermore,nearly all of the increase was for households with severe burdens.By 2021,49.2 percent of the 12.2 million homeowner households with incomes below$30,000 were affected.Homeowners with low incomes were only one of the many vulnerable populations whose burden rates increased
271、between 2019 and 2021.Cost burdens affected a quarter of all homeowners age 65 and over(26 percent)and more than a third of all single-person(39 percent)and single-parent(36 percent)homeowner households in 2021.Additionally,burdens reached nearly a third of all Black(31 percent)and Hispanic(29 perce
272、nt)homeowners and more than a quarter(26 percent)of Asian homeowners,compared with one in five white homeowners(21 percent).Such high rates of burden leave many homeowners strug-gling to pay for other monthly necessities and acutely vulnerable to sudden losses of income,urgent home repairs,or other
273、financial shocks.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202327The overall homeownership rate has been further boosted by the nations aging population.Older adults have the highest homeownership rates of any age group,with 79 percent of households ages
274、65 and older owning a home in 2022.While homeownership rates for older households have remained relatively stable,hovering between 78.5 and 80.0 percent since 2016,their share of households rose from 24 percent to 27 percent during that period and has helped to lift the overall homeownership rate.Ho
275、wever,there are signs that the increase in home-ownership is slowing.For one,the number of home purchases by first-time homebuyers is rapidly declining.Agency data from the Urban Institute show that the number of purchase loans originated to first-time homebuyers decreased 22 percent in 2022.Further
276、more,declines accelerated through the year such that,by the fourth quarter,lending to first-time homebuyers was down nearly 40 percent rela-tive to a year earlier.Unless this trend is reversed in the near future,declines will most likely continue into 2023,with even fewer households reaping the bene
277、fits of homeownership.Home Equity Reaches Record LevelsWhile rising home values have added to the challenges for first-time buyers,they have been a boon for existing homeowners.According to the Federal Reserve,home-owner equity in the US totaled$31.0 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022,up 33 perc
278、ent($7.7 trillion)in real terms since the start of the pandemic(Figure 20).Despite declining home prices,aggregate equity remains up$3.5 trillion year over year nominally and is nearly 2.5 times the aggregate mortgage debt.CoreLogic reports that the average homeowner had$270,000 in equity in their h
279、ome as of the fourth quarter of 2022,having gained$14,300 in equity over the past year and fully$95,900 over the past three years.But there are significant geographic variations that follow the trends in home prices.Changes in equity from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022 rang
280、ed from an average gain of$49,000 for home-Figure 20Home Equity Has Reached Unprecedented Heights as Mortgage Debt Holds SteadyTrillions of 2022 DollarsNote:Homeowner equity and mortgage debt are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U for All Items Less Shelter.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Federal
281、Reserve Board,Financial Accounts of the United States.055620022Aggregate Home EquityAggregate Mortgage Debtowners in Florida to a loss of$21,400 for homeowners in Idaho.Nationwide,however,just 2.2 percent of all mortgaged properties faced negative equity in the fourt
282、h quarter of 2022,far below the 26 percent peak at the height of the mortgage crisis in 2009.That said,if home prices continue to fall,more owners could be pushed into having negative equity positions,partic-ularly first-time buyers who purchased their home near their peak price.Nevertheless,these h
283、uge variations in equity high-light the critical role homeownership plays in wealth inequality,not simply between homeowners and renters,the most commonly cited disparity,but also among homeowners,particularly as home equity relates to the racial wealth gap.Recent research has shown that appraisals
284、have undervalued homes owned by Black households or in predominantly Black neighborhoods,translating directly into less home equity for Black homeowners compared with white homeowners.Overall,at last measure in 2019,median home equity held by white homeowners($130,000)was nearly twice that of Black
285、homeowners($66,800)and more than a third higher than that of Hispanic homeowners($95,000).JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202328Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Remain Below Pre-Pandemic LevelsDespite ongoing affordability pressures,feder
286、al assis-tance and a resilient labor market have helped mort-gage loan performance remain strong through early 2023.At last measure from Black Knight in March,the overall delinquency rate was 2.92 percent,down from 3.37 percent a year earlier,backed by declines in both short-and long-term mortgage d
287、elinquencies.Like-wise,just 32,200 new foreclosure actions were started that month5.6 percent fewer than a year ago.In all,both foreclosures and delinquencies remained below pre-pandemic levels.Some of these low levels may be attributable to federal assistance.For example,the$9.9 billion Homeowner A
288、ssistance Fund has helped more than 241,000 home-owners pay mortgage,utility,and home insurance bills since it was established as part of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.And,though it was feared that the expiration of the CARES Act forbearance period would lead to a wave of foreclosures,current
289、 data indicate that this is not the case.Overall,86 percent of the 8.5 million loans given forbearances during the pandemic have exited and are performing or paid off.Only 422,000 loans remain in active forbearance,and they are exiting at a pace of roughly 100,000 per month.Nevertheless,these low ov
290、erall rates of serious delin-quency conceal higher levels of distress among homeowners.Fully 576,000 loans that have exited the forbearance program are either delinquent or in loss mitigation,while an additional 105,000 loans are in active foreclosure or liquidation following their forbear-ance plan
291、 exit,as of April 2023.This financial distress disproportionately impacts households with low incomes and people of color.According to the Census Bureaus Household Pulse Survey,rates of missed payments for Black(10.3 percent),Asian(10.1 percent),and Hispanic homeowners(7.9 percent)were each well abo
292、ve the share reported by white homeowners(3.8 percent)in late 2022.Racial income inequality plays a role in these disparities,as households of color are more likely to have lower incomes,and are also much more likely to be behind on payments.Overall,13.0 percent of homeowners earning less than$25,00
293、0 reported being behind on housing payments,along with 9.8 percent of homeowner households earning between$25,000 and$50,000,versus less than 4 percent of homeowners earning$75,000 or more.While the bulk of the Homeowner Assistance Fund remains unobligated and thus will be able to assist some distre
294、ssed homeowners,more resources will be needed to help homeowners after the fund is fully committed.Racial Homeownership Gaps Persist Despite Recent ProgressAs gains in homeownership slow,so do prospects for reducing racial disparities in homeownership rates.On the one hand,pandemic-era increases in
295、home-ownership were widespread by race and ethnicity,and resulted in some progress toward narrowing racial homeownership gaps.In fact,homeownership rates for Black and Hispanic households rose 3.1 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points,respectively,between 2019 and 2022,outpacing the 1.1 percen
296、tage point increase for white households.On the other hand,Black households pandemic-era homeownership gains may be at least partially a product of the low Black homeownership rate before the pandemic.While Black homeownership rates have increased modestly since the eve of the pandemic in 2019,rates
297、 for Black households were then near their lowest levels in decades.This was due at least in part to the fact that Black households did not share equally in the economic recovery experienced by white and Hispanic households after homeowner-ship rates bottomed out in 2016.And so,while the low interes
298、t rates of 2020 and 2021 helped Black home-ownership rates to begin to catch up,the progress was only incremental.Despite these recent gains,the homeownership rate for Black households,at 45.9 percent,remains a full 28.6 percentage points below the white rate of 74.4 JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES
299、 OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202329percent.Meanwhile,the white-Hispanic homeown-ership rate gap is nearly as large at 25.8 percentage points,with the Hispanic homeownership rate at 48.6 percent(Figure 21).Nor are these disparities on track to shrink.High home prices and rel
300、atively high interest rates over the past year have disproportionately priced out Black and Hispanic renter households,who have lower average incomes,from homebuying.Based on the income requirements alone,the number of Black renter house-holds able to afford the median-priced home in the US dropped
301、by 39 percent,while the number of Hispanic renter households dropped by 37 percent.Meanwhile,the number of white renter households dropped by 30 percent.While each of these decreases represents a significant decline in access to homeownership,the outsized decrease for Black and Hispanic households w
302、orks against efforts to reduce racial homeownership rate gaps.Figure 21Despite the Recent Rise in Homeownership Rates,Large Disparities Persist by Race and EthnicityHomeownership Rate(Percent)Notes:Householders who are white,Black,and Asian or another race are non-Hispanic.Hispanic householders may
303、be of any race.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Housing Vacancy Surveys.40455055606570758042007200192022WhiteBlackHispanicAsian or AnotherRace/EthnicityIncomes are not the only barrier to homeownership for people of color.Even among households earning over 120 percen
304、t of the median household income for their area,just 71 percent of Black households and 72 percent of Hispanic households own homes,compared with 85 percent of white households.Generations of racist housing,labor,and education practices have placed households of color at a disadvantage in terms of g
305、enerational wealth,access to credit,access to high-quality housing and neighborhoods,and other factors that continue to be reflected in todays households and markets.As such,reducing racial homeownership gaps is critical to inclusive economic growth for both households and communities and an importa
306、nt policy issue,to ensure not only the health of housing markets,but also that of local economies and of the nation.Increasing Access to Affordable Homeownership In recent years,various programs and policies have been introduced to advance homeownership among people of color.For example,a growing nu
307、mber of for-profit and nonprofit lenders now offer targeted downpayment assistance programs to help eligible applicants meet lending requirements,a frequent barrier to homeownership for many households of color that may lack the generational wealth of many white homebuyers.Some such programs are cre
308、ated as special purpose credit programs,which are able to target households of color as an economically disadvantaged class of persons under the 1974 Equal Credit Opportunity Act.Many programs instead target specific neighborhoods or metropolitan areas that have racially diverse populations.Notably,
309、these programs are not limited to downpayment assistance and may also offer favorable mortgage terms and more flexible underwriting criteria to further facilitate access to affordable and sustainable homeownership.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING
310、 202330Credit score minimums are a second significant barrier to homeownership for many people of color,who have disproportionately high rates of low credit scores or lack of credit history.In response,Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now provide a new tool for lenders to assess credit quality by offering
311、 the option to consider a prospective borrowers record on a wider set of monthly service payments that are not usually included in credit histories,such as rent payments.Credit bureaus such as Experian are also working with some rental management companies,utility compa-nies,and even streaming servi
312、ces to enable renters to incorporate on-time payment of monthly rent or utility bills into credit scores.Other barriers to homeownership are due to the economics of mortgage lending.Because lenders fixed costs on mortgage loans are the same regard-less of the loan size,lenders are incentivized again
313、st making smaller loans.However,in distressed housing markets,as well as in many rural areas where the typical home price can be less than$70,000,low-bal-ance mortgages and additional specialized lending programs are needed to accommodate lower home prices and expand homebuying opportunities.Another
314、 area where policy action is needed is the cost of financing,which can push homeownership out of reach for households with lower incomes.Over the past year,the Federal Housing Finance Agency eliminated up-front fees on loans made to first-time borrowers with lower incomes and those in underserved co
315、mmu-nities.These changes are intended to expand access to mortgage financing and reduce monthly costs for homebuyers while still reflecting the relative risks of different categories of borrowers.While these are helpful and necessary steps,more is needed to over-come the many barriers to homeownersh
316、ip.Indeed,efforts to increase homeownership cannot be limited to financial products.To truly provide equi-table access to homeownership,concerted efforts are needed to reduce the cost and increase the supply of homes available for first-time buyers.Manufac-tured housing is an affordable path to home
317、ownership that is underutilized in most of the country and could be encouraged by reducing zoning limitations and by providing owners of manufactured homes better access to lower-cost mortgage products like those available to site-built homes.Other general reforms of zoning laws,regulatory restricti
318、ons,approval processes,and development fees could help to drive down production prices on the types of more afford-able homes that buyers want and need.Lastly,along with the production of new units,policy needs to help preserve the affordable owner-occupied stock to prevent losing properties to disr
319、epair as the housing stock ages.The OutlookOver the coming year,overall higher housing costs will continue to make access to homeownership a challenge.That said,interest rates have plateaued and home prices have declined modestly in much of the nation since mid-2022,allowing buyers time to adjust to
320、 these new conditions.Homeownership demand persists,evidenced by the rise in loan appli-cations that has accompanied every dip in interest rates in recent months.Against this backdrop,poli-cymakers and practitioners will need to continue to adapt homeownership programs to improve access to affordabl
321、e homeownership;address the racial dispar-ities in income,wealth,and access to credit that fuel the nations racial homeownership rate gaps;and increase the housing supply to satisfy anticipated demand from future buyers.Additionally,policies for distressed homeowners are needed to stave off poten-ti
322、al harms when the next economic downturn arrives.JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 20233105A drop-off in demand is cooling the formerly heated rental markets.Rental vacancy rates are climbing from historic lows,and rent growth is slowing from last
323、 years all-time high.Nonetheless,rents are still rising,the supply of low-rent units is falling,and new construction is adding primarily to the high-end rental stock.In response,renter cost burdens have risen to their highest recorded level,underscoring the worsening affordability challenges facing
324、many renters with lower incomes.RENTAL HOUSINGSlowing Demand for Rental Units Rental demand declined in early 2023.According to the Housing Vacancy Survey,the number of renter households decreased by 158,000 between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.The recent decline came afte
325、r a surge in rental demand early in the pandemic,when the number of renter house-holds grew by 1.0 million between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2022,an implied annual average increase of 510,000 renter households.The recent drop-off in the number of renter households,coupled wi
326、th robust growth in the number of home-owner households,fueled a continued downward trend in rentership rates from a peak of 36.6 percent in 2016 to 34.2 percent in 2022,with 43.9 million households renting their housing in 2022(Figure 22).Note:Estimates for 2020 are omitted due to data collection i
327、ssues experienced during the pandemic.Source:JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau,Housing Vacancy Surveys.Figure 22Rentership Rates Declined as Renter Household Growth Slowed in 2022 Renter Households(Millions)Rentership Rate(Percent)Renter HouseholdsRentership Rate(Right scale)2528336373
328、83940402200320042005 20062007200820092000019 2020*2023036353332JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITYTHE STATE OF THE NATIONS HOUSING 202332Softening Rental Markets Cool Multifamily Investor DemandSlowing rent growth,combined wit
329、h rising vacancies,interest rates,and operating costs,has hurt multifamily property performance through early 2023.In the first quarter of 2023,the rental vacancy rate increased to 6.4 percent,up from its lowest level in decades(5.6 percent)in the fourth quarter of 2021,according to the Housing Vaca
330、ncy Survey.Meanwhile,the vacancy rate in the professionally managed apartment segment increased even more dramatically,reaching 5.2 percent in early 2023,according to data from Real-Page,nearly 3 percentage points above its record-low reading of 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2022.The pace of
331、rent growth has slowed remarkably over the past year,though rates of increase remain above pre-pandemic averages(Figure 23).Between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023,rents for units in professionally managed apartments were up by just 4.5 percentwell below the record-high annua
332、l rate of 15.3 percent one year earlier at the height of the pandemic-era surge,but nearly a percentage point above the 3.6 percent rate averaged in the five years Notes:Asking rents are for professionally managed apartments in buildings with five or more units.Class A(Class C)apartments are relativ
333、ely higher(lower)quality.Source:RealPage.Figure 23Despite Slowing Rent Growth,Rent Increases Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Annual Change in Rents(Percent)-505000222023All ApartmentsClass AClass BClass CThe decline was even sharper in early 2023,particu-larly for professionally managed apartments,which account for about a quarter of the total rental stock and pri