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1、致:2024 China LogisticsApril 202401Macroeconomics0302Leasing Market0803Investment Trends1804Market Outlook2101MacroeconomicsChina LogisticsNon-bonded Grade A Market Value Chain4ManufacturingConsumptionTradeUpstreamSupplierEnd Product WarehouseEnd Product WarehouseFactoryEnd Product WarehouseStoresEnd
2、 UserOverseas Distribution WarehouseOverseas End UserOverseas End UserRegionalDistributionWarehouseCityDistributionWarehouseEnd UserDomesticDistribution WarehouseHigh-tech manufacturing growth supports the demand for warehouses E-commerce and 3PLs account for the majority of leasing demandCross-bord
3、er e-commerce playersdrive significant growth in international tradeChina LogisticsManufacturingAs China transitions into the Industry 4.0 era,manufacturing continues to be a pivotal driver of logistics development.The expansion of numerous high-tech manufacturers is fuelling a significant increase
4、in demand for Grade A warehouses.Noteworthy growth rates of 54.0%for solar cell production and 30.3%for New Energy Vehicles(NEVs)highlight the burgeoning demand for industrial goods.The China Passenger Car Association(CPCA)estimates that the penetration rate of NEVs in China reached 36%in 2023,promp
5、ting several brands to establish/expand manufacturing facilities.Regional leasing patterns vary.In Southern China,light manufacturing companies prioritize operational flexibility within warehouses.Eastern China,at the forefront of supporting Chinas transition to a low-carbon economy,is witnessing th
6、e construction of numerous eco-friendly warehouses with LEED certifications.Meanwhile,Western China,buoyed by the rapid ascent of NEVs,is contributing to the stability of warehouse leasing demand.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,China Passenger Car Association(CPCA)V
7、alue Added of Industry(YoY)in 2023 ManufacturingAutomobileChemical Material&ProductElectronic Machinery&Equipment5.0%13.0%9.6%12.9%5-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2002220232024Fixed Asset Investment YTD(YoY)Electrical Machinery&EquipmentAutomobile ManufacturingInstrument&MeterChemical Material
8、&ProductComputer,Communication&Other Electronic EquipmentOverall ManufacturingPowering economic growthChina LogisticsConsumptionBenefiting from a series of consumption stimulus plans,the consumer market recovered in 2023,particularly in the F&B and retail sectors.The express delivery business mainta
9、ined its vigour,with Henan experiencing significant growth compared to 2019.Online retail sales have continued to grow steadily,with e-commerce platforms and third-party logistics(3PL)companies retaining a substantial share of the warehouse leasing market.Notably,live-streaming e-commerce has played
10、 a pivotal role in driving e-commerce growth throughout the year,with companies such as TikTok,Kuaishou,and Red accelerating the expansion of their live-streaming sales business.Simultaneously,the Customer to Manufacturer(C2M)model is maturing,gradually reducing businesses reliance on front-end inve
11、ntory through its decentralized sales approach,bringing notable changes to the consumer market landscape.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,Ministry of TransportNB:E-commerce penetration rate=Online retail sales/Retail sales615%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%Feb Mar Apr May JunJ
12、ul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecChinas E-commerce Penetration Rate2002220230%1%2%3%4%5%TibetInner MongoliaXinjiangQinghaiNingxiaYunnanGuizhouShanxiHunanGansuChongqingShaanxiGuangxiHainanSichuanhubeiAnhuiShandongJiangxiJilinLiaoningHeilongjiangJiangsuBeijingFujianHenanTianjinHebeiZhejiangGuangdongSh
13、anghaiExpress Business Revenue to GDP ratio20192023Substantial untapped potentialChina LogisticsTradeChinas international trade demonstrated steady growth in 2023,with notable increases in trade with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.Exports continued to rise,building upon a ro
14、bust foundation.The export sector saw remarkable developments,particularly in the New Three products(electric vehicles,lithium-ion batteries,and solar cells),which surpassed the trillion-yuan mark for the first time,with growth of nearly 30%YoY.Cross-border e-commerce exports also flourished,driven
15、by major players such as Shein,Temu,and TikTok,resulting in a 19.6%increase in e-commerce export scale,surpassing the overall foreign trade export growth rate of 0.6%.Furthermore,prominent cross-border e-commerce entities are actively establishing distribution warehouses and hubs in the Southern Chi
16、na market.Shein,for instance,plans to establish a supply chain headquarters in the Greater Bay Area(GBA),a move expected to generate substantial warehousing demand in the region.Source:NBS,Ministry of Commerce,General Administration of Customs,Guolian SecuritiesNB:Export e-commerce penetration=Expor
17、t e-commerce value/Export value5.0%6.2%6.4%6.5%7.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%0592020202120222023RMB trnExport E-commerceExport ValueExport E-commerce Pentration Rate17.2 17.9 21.7 23.6 23.8 14.3 14.3 17.4 18.0 18.0 0554045200222023RMB trnInternational TradeExportImport7Finding ne
18、w routes and new markets02Leasing MarketChina LogisticsMarket SupplyThe non-bonded Grade A warehouse market stock in 31 major cities surpassed 90 million sqm in 2023.The Eastern China market stands out,accounting for over one-third of Chinas total stock.With a continuous influx of supply in recent y
19、ears,some developers have opted for rental trade-offs in order to bring down vacancy rates.Northern China experienced a notable increase in new supply starting in 2021,particularly in Langfang,Tianjin,and Beijing.In contrast,Western China has exhibited a gradual deceleration since 2020,allowing for
20、market absorption of vacant stock.Southern China observed a peak in supply,with significant surges in Guangzhou and Dongguan.Concurrently,driven by robust demand from cross-border e-commerce,the market experienced exceptionally high levels of demand.Central China exhibited stable demand for transpor
21、tation and consumption.However,due to the supply over the past three years,the market still face vacancy pressure.Supply remains high but with regional variationsEastern China:Shanghai,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Nanjing,Jiaxing,Ningbo,Wuxi,Hangzhou,NantongNorthern China:Beiji
22、ng,Tianjin,Langfang,Shenyang,Jinan,QingdaoSouthern China:Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Dongguan,Foshan,HuizhouWestern China:Chengdu,Chongqing,Xian,Kunming,GuiyangCentral China:Wuhan,Zhengzhou,Changsha0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0200222023mn sqmNon-bonded Grade A Warehouse Historical SupplyEasternNorth
23、ernSouthernWesternCentralSource:Savills Research9China LogisticsLeasing Market DemandA slower-than-expected economic recovery,has meant that tenants have become more conservative10The number of LEED-certified warehouses in the market has witnessed a significant increase in recent years.Some tenants
24、are increasingly inclined to rent green warehouses due to the potential long-term cost savings associated with sustainable operations.SustainabilityBeyond traditional considerations like location and facilities,tenants are now evaluating the operational capabilities of developers when choosing wareh
25、ouses.This shift involves assessing the developers ability to coordinate supply chain resources and collaborate with local authorities.Value-Added ServicesAs the e-commerce tenants increases,market leases become more flexible.Furthermore,developers are incorporating flexible termination clauses for
26、tenants committed to longer stays,aiming to mitigate potential default costs.Contract FlexibilityThe influx of new projects has provided tenants with ample options,enhancing their negotiating power.Some developers have responded by not only reducing rents but also offering extended rent-free periods
27、 to bolster tenant security.Rent SensitivityChina LogisticsRentsNationwide rents experienced downward pressure in 2023,with average rents in major cities declining by 4.3%.Southern China rents exhibited relative resilience,showing a slight year-on-year increase in 2023.Conversely,other regions rents
28、 experienced declines of varying magnitudes.The decline in rents in first tier cities has eased some of the financial burden of some tenants meaning that they are less likely to relocate to lower cost alternatives further away from key consumption hubs.This should help to buoy demand in first tier c
29、ities and absorbs some of the excess supply built up over the last couple of years.Source:Savills ResearchMarket needs time absorb excess supply,rents continue to face downwards pressureBase period:2015H1First-tier cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,ShenzhenSatellite cities:Tianjin,Langfang,Jiaxing,S
30、uzhou(incl.Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Jiaxing,Foshan,Dongguan,HuizhouOther cities:Shenyang,Qingdao,Jinan,Wuxi,Nanjing,Ningbo,Hangzhou,Xian,Chengdu,Chongqing,Kunming,Guiyang,Wuhan,Zhengzhou,Changsha00021222324H1/2015=100Grade A non-bonded war
31、ehouse rental indexFirst tierSatelliteOthersChina Logistics2023 Non-bonded Grade A Market City OverviewNorthern and Eastern markets could take longer to stabilize12Source:Savills ResearchNB:Suzhou includes Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%(0.5)0.00.51.0
32、1.52.02.53.03.5TianjinLangfangBeijingShenyangJinanQingdaoSuzhouShanghaiJiaxingHangzhouNanjingWuxiNingboNantongWuhanZhengzhouChangshaChengduChongqingXianKunmingGuiyangGuangzhouFoshanDongguanHuizhouShenzhenNorthEastCentralWestSouthmn sqmSupply(LHS)Net Take-up(LHS)Vacancy(RHS)China LogisticsBeijingAppr
33、oximately 188,000 sqm of new supply was added in Q4/2023,situated at Daxing Airport and Pinggu submarket.Rents remained comparatively high,leading some tenants to relocate to satellite cities throughout the year.BDIA and Pinggu submarkets,as newly planned logistics hubs,anticipate a surge in new sup
34、ply in the forthcoming years.ShenyangThe market stock in Shenyang maintained around 1.89 million sqm,with a rise in net take-up and limited new supply.Demand is propelled by the citys role as a distribution hub and the requirements of e-commerce,food processing,and equipment manufacturing firms.Tian
35、jinTianjin boasts the largest market stock in the Northern market and witnessed substantial new supply throughout the year.Despite similar rents to Langfang,Tianjin faces challenges in attracting tenants from Beijing,with local developers employing low-price strategies to sustain vacancy rates.Wuqin
36、g,Binhai,Beichen,and Xiqing have established relatively mature logistics markets,featuring larger stock than other submarkets,while the emerging Jizhou submarket is anticipated to enhance connectivity between the Northern Tianjin and Beijing markets.LangfangIn 2023,Langfang saw the addition of appro
37、ximately 1.46 million sqm of new supply,retaining its attractiveness for tenants seeking proximity to Beijing.Since 2021,Langfang has experienced a notable surge in supply,particularly in Guangyang,Anci,Guan,and Beixin Counties submarkets.JinanJinans non-bonded Grade A market observed limited new su
38、pply,resulting in a decline in net absorption and a rise in vacancy rates.Serving as a key industrial and logistics hub,Jinans Grade A warehouses primarily cater to local consumption demands.QingdaoA total stock of 1.46 million sqm,the main tenants are local home appliance and furniture manufacturin
39、g retailers.Qingdao has focused on modern logistics industry,and the demand for freight from RCEP-related national routes and China-Europe freight trains has increased,among which the Jiaozhou sub-market has performed particularly well.Northern ChinaSource:Savills ResearchNB:Projects in Qihe County,
40、Dezhou are included in Jinan figuresStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateBeijing2.70 59.2 11.8%Tianjin6.0924.9 23.2%Langfang4.26 24.8 51.3%Shenyang1.89 17.218.5%Jinan1.82 26.320.8%Qingdao1.46 27.64.1%13China LogisticsShanghaiIn 2023,Shanghai witnessed a five-year high in new supply,with nearly 70%l
41、ocated in the Jinshan and Qingpu submarkets.A shift in the supply-demand dynamic led to a 1.4%decrease in market rental prices,discouraging some tenants from relocating.Q4 of 2023 saw the best net take-up levels,particularly in submarkets like Jinshan and Songjiang,indicating significant improvement
42、.Expectations for 2024 include a continued influx of supply,especially with several large projects from leading developers slated to open in the first half of the year,potentially increasing vacancy rates in corresponding submarkets.SuzhouWith a market stock exceeding 11 million sqm,Suzhou remains C
43、hinas largest logistics market.In 2023,Suzhou proper alone added over 1.2 million sqm of new supply,primarily in the Wujiang submarket,likely putting upward pressure on rental prices.Greater Suzhous competitive rents attracted manufacturing enterprises from neighbouring regions,distinguishing it fro
44、m Shanghai.NanjingNon-bonded Grade A warehouse supply in Nanjing decreased in 2023,with new supply only recorded in the Jiangningsubmarket.Market absorption rebounded,leading to a drop in vacancy rates to 20.5%.The Nanjing metropolitan areas dense population and robust consumer base sustain stable d
45、emand for warehousing.JiaxingSupply in Jiaxing City slowed in 2023,maintaining stable rents.Local manufacturing and vertical industries primarily drive demand,with its strategic location also serving adjacent cities like Shanghai.New projects aim to attract high-tech manufacturing tenants,including
46、digital economy,pharmaceuticals,healthcare,and new energy sectors.WuxiStringent land sales/lease requirements limit new logistics projects in Wuxi,keeping rents and vacancy rates stable.Government support for electronic information technology and machinery manufacturing industries,coupled with a str
47、ong GDP,ensures sustained demand for warehousing.HangzhouNo new supply was added in Hangzhou in 2023.Renowned as a national hub for live-streaming e-commerce,3PL,and e-commerce firms continue to dominate tenancy.Growing Internet industry development attracts demands from high-tech electronic manufac
48、turing industries,benefiting Hangzhou,Huzhou,and Shaoxing.Eastern ChinaSource:Savills ResearchNB:Suzhou includes Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang;Hangzhou includes some Huzhou&Shaoxing projectsStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateShanghai7.4649.4 16.3%Suzhou11.8137.8 29.1%Jia
49、xing2.4231.3 3.8%Ningbo4.2332.5 31.8%Hangzhou2.41 32.2 14.5%Nanjing2.8935.5 10.8%Shanghai2.44 31.3 20.5%14China LogisticsGuangzhouRecorded over 1 million sqm of new supply,primarily in Huadu and Zengcheng submarkets.Possesses substantial reserve of industrial/logistics land,ensuring market equilibri
50、um.Primary leasing demand from 3PLs,e-commerce companies,and the automotive industry.FoshanNew supply in Foshan has slowed in recent years.Stable vacancy rate and rents.Demand for non-bonded Grade A warehouses from cross-border e-commerce companies.Sanshui and Gaoming submarkets offer relatively low
51、 rents,accommodating overflow demand from Guangzhou.ShenzhenLeading rents nationwide due to limited land resources.Consistent upgrades in logistics infrastructure by local government.New warehouse developments reaching up to 6 stories.Expects over 1.7 million sqm of new supply in the next three year
52、s,potentially easing rent pressure.DongguanAdded nearly 500,000 sqm of new supply in 2023,mostly in Machong submarket.Critical logistics and distribution hub in the GBA.Benefits from spillover demand from Shenzhen and local manufacturing resurgence.Machong market attracts food and beverage manufactu
53、ring companies with significant local warehousing needs.HuizhouRelatively lower population density and rents compared to Shenzhen and Dongguan.Demand for Grade A warehouses mainly from local manufacturing enterprises,such as electronics and automotive companies.Southern ChinaStockMn sqmRentRMB psm p
54、mthVacancyRateGuangzhou3.35 42.17.1%Shenzhen0.72 59.54.1%Dongguan2.78 43.90.4%Foshan2.83 35.46.6%Huizhou1.21 35.517.0%Source:Savills Research15China LogisticsChengduResilient demand throughout the year with stable rents.Received approximately 250,000 sqm of new supply in 2023,marking a consistent de
55、crease since 2020.Notable rebound in Chengdu economy driven by consumer spending resurgence.Steady growth in local logistics demand,especially from F&B and high-end manufacturing sectors.Anticipated low future supply expected to maintain market equilibrium.ChongqingSlowed new supply growth in 2023 w
56、ith a market stock of non-bonded Grade A warehouses exceeding 5.8 million sqm.Key hub city for inland opening-up,leveraging China-Europe Railway Express and New Western Land-sea Corridor.Attracted high-end manufacturing companies,including NEVs manufacturers,driving market demand.XianMarket stock of
57、 non-bonded Grade A warehouses of around 3.57 million sqm with a vacancy rate of 13.9%.High-end manufacturing industry,particularly NEVs,propelled demand.BYDs manufacturing factory continuously upgraded production capacity.KunmingNon-bonded Grade A warehouse market primarily serves local consumption
58、 and retailers,with market stock nearly 1.18 million sqm.Stable occupancy rate,though some developers reducing future rent expectations due to economic downturn.GuiyangRelatively small non-bonded Grade warehouse market at approximately 800,000 sqm.Future linked to big data industry,promoting technol
59、ogical innovation and integration of physical and digital economies.Expected to stimulate logistics development,enhance infrastructure,and improve service levels.Western ChinaStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateXian3.57 23.613.9%Chengdu5.87 22.86.9%Chongqing5.44 19.426.4%Kunming1.1823.713.1%Guiyan
60、g0.80 25.99.4%Source:Savills ResearchNB:Some Xianyang projects are included in Xian figures;Some Meishan&Deyang projects are included in Chengdu figures16China LogisticsWuhanNew supply of non-bonded Grade A warehouses in 2023 was one-third of that in 2022.Market vacancy rate remains relatively high
61、compared to other Central China cities,exerting absorption pressure.Growing demand in cold chain and 3PLs industries expected to improve supply-demand equilibrium in the future.ChangshaLimited supply of non-bonded Grade A warehouses in recent years,with no new supply in 2023.Maintains importance as
62、a consumption center in Central China and a crucial hub in the national transportation network.Rents exhibit consistent downward trend since early 2023,declining by 5.4 bps YoY.ZhengzhouNon-bonded Grade A warehouses mainly located in Economic and Technological Development Zone and near Xinzheng Airp
63、ort.Key cold chain logistics hub with stable demand for cold chain food logistics.Industry continuously upgrading to meet evolving demands.Central ChinaStockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmthVacancyRateZhengzhou2.4723.517.1%Wuhan6.30 20.125.5%Changsha1.68 24.725.6%Source:Savills ResearchNB:Some Xiaogan&Ezhou pr
64、ojects are included in Wuhan figures;Some Xiangtan projects are included in Changsha figures1703Investment TrendsChina LogisticsStrategic Shifts in Market TransitionThe market share of the top 10 developers in 2023 decreased from 71.6%in 2019 to 65.5%.Although GLP maintains its leading position in A
65、UM,its market share has seen a decline over the past five years.Meanwhile,several other developers,including JD.com and DNE,are actively expanding their presence nationwide,indicating significant growth.To sustain growth amidst intense competition,leading players are implementing strategic changes.D
66、evelopers are moderating their expansion strategies due to limited land availability and a slowdown in demand.Simultaneously,they are constructing new projects with low-carbon footprint and intelligent automation configurations to enhance cost efficiencies.Furthermore,developers are increasingly eng
67、aging in asset management agreements with equity partners.This asset-light approach allows developers to effectively secure tenants and reduce long-term vacancy rates.Fierce competition leads to increasingly fragmented marketSource:Savills ResearchNote:Chart refers to for-lease non-bonded Grade A dr
68、y warehouse assets1934.52%28.43%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20232019GLPESRBlogisVankeMapletreeJDPrologisGoodmanDNEDragoncorOthersChina LogisticsYields climb amid weak fundamentalsThere has been a notable shift towards a more discerning investment approach within the logistics sector,characteriz
69、ed by rigorous evaluation of asset valuations and expected returns.Among key metropolitan areas,Shanghai stands out for its resilience in terms of both yields and Cash-on-Cash(CoC)returns despite prevailing market challenges.Driven primarily by e-commerce promotions,China experienced a significant i
70、ncrease in express parcel volume in 2023.However,the decline in express delivery fares has compressed the profit margins of third-party logistics(3PL)companies.Consequently,some price-sensitive tenants opt to relocate away from Tier I cities.To maintain stable occupancy rates,certain developers have
71、 made concessions on rents,which further impacts the expected returns of assets.Source:Savills ResearchFirst-tier cities continue to attract investors attention0%2%4%6%8%10%TokyoHong KongCologneAmsterdam le-de-FranceLos AngelesNorthern New JerseyShanghaiMadridLondonSydneySeoul Metropolitan AreaHoust
72、onChicagoSingaporeDubaiLogistics investments performances across citiesCash-on-Cash ReturnsPrime Yields4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%1920212223Logistics yieldsShanghaiBeijingGuangzhouShenzhen2nd tier2004Market OutlookChina LogisticsSource:Savills Research,CERISNB:Charts only include logistics land;Suz
73、hou includes Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and ZhangjiagangMarket OutlookIn certain markets,supply is expected to persist in the short term.However,due to limited logistics land availability and stricter government construction regulations,long-term supply levels are projected to gradually
74、decrease.Across the 31 cities monitored by Savills,the total planned building area for logistics in 2022-2023 has decreased by over 20%compared to the 2020-2021 level.Notable declines are evident in Northern and Western China markets.Similarly,the Eastern China market,except Jiaxing and Wuxi,also ex
75、perienced supply slowdown to varying degrees.With an average construction period of 1-2 years,a reduction in logistics supply over the next 2 years is anticipated.In 2024,the Chinese government is poised to continue stimulating domestic demand.As the market absorption capacity rebounds,more submarke
76、ts are expected to achieve long-term market equilibrium.Long-term supply is expected to slow down22012345678BeijingTianjinLangfangShenyangJinanQingdaoWuhanZhengzhouChangshaDongguanFoshanGuangzhouHuizhouShenzhenChengduKunmingXianGuiyangChongqingShanghaiNanjingNantongJiaxingNingboWuxiHangzhouSuzhouNor
77、thCentralSouthWestEastmn sqmLogistics land sales(buildable area)-231China LogisticsMarket Outlook23Intelligent Upgrades PersistThroughout 2023,a series of policies drove the intelligent transformation of modern logistics.The adoption of new technologies like AI large models is expected to
78、 enhance the digital transformation of warehouses,facilitating industry upgrades.Investment Focus on Core LocationsIn 2023,logistics investors exhibited rationality in their investments.Some logistics assets seek buyers due to fund expiration and investment allocation adjustments,resulting in short-
79、term selling pressure.However,assets in core areas remain attractive for long-term investment.Return Logistics Drive DemandThe expanding e-commerce sector has heightened the importance of reverse logistics management in reducing operational costs for logistics enterprises.Future demands from reverse
80、 logistics are expected to drive new requirements for warehouse facilities.Self-built Warehouses Stimulate UpgradesCertain Chinese e-commerce companies have invested in self-built warehouses tailored to their supply chain needs,featuring comprehensive internal amenities.These developments are poised
81、 to indirectly prompt the replacement of outdated projects within the market.Global Turbulence Influences Leasing StrategiesGlobal challenges such as the Sino-US trade conflict,Panama Canal drought,and the Red Sea crisis impact international cargo transportation,leading to issues like rising tariffs
82、,waterway blockages,and port congestions.The profitability of international trade companies may be affected,potentially influencing their warehouse leasing strategies to some extent.23456China ResearchJames MacdonaldSenior DirectorChinaJames.MacdonaldSFiona QiaoSenior AnalystChinaFiona.QIndustrial&L
83、ogisticsLouisa LuoSenior DirectorChinaLouisa.LuoSBowen MiaoSenior DirectorCentral ChinaBowen.MiaoSCarol LinDirectorNorthern CAndrew ZhouDirectorWuhanAndrew.ZhouSSusan ChenAssociate DirectorWestern ChinaSusanWQ.ChenSCharlie CaiAssociate DirectorShenzhenCharlie.CaiS Savills plc is a global real estate
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