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1、 The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy November 2020 Prepared for Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. in partnership with Omdia IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS Markit. All rights rese
2、rved. 2 November 2020 Contents Executive summary 3 Economic impacts of 5G in a post-COVID-19 world 3 Value chain 3 Sales enablement 4 Contribution to global GDP 6 Introduction 7 Organization of report 7 Historical context for 5G 8 The promise of 5G 8 5G in the time of COVID-19 11 Work from home 13 D
3、istance learning 15 Tele-health/medicine 15 Online retail and e-Commerce 16 Economic impacts of 5G in a post-COVID-19 world 17 Economic contribution of 5G 17 Establishing the 5G value chain 19 5G sales enablement 21 Sustainable global economic growth 23 Sustainability and societal impacts of 5G 24 D
4、oes 5G face any headwinds? 25 Affordability 27 Digital divide 27 Conclusion: 5G in a post-COVID-19 world 28 References 30 End notes 35 IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. 3 November 2020 Executive s
5、ummary The early days of 2020 were still heady times for 5G. Rarely had the world so enthusiastically awaited the arrival of a communications technology often described as “disruptive,” “transformational,” and a “general purpose technology.” As its early versions emergedwith much more expected to co
6、me over the next 10-15 years pundits were espousing the ways 5G will change or materially influence almost every aspect of human activity. Global priorities underwent an unexpected reset starting in February 2020, as the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019COVID-19) began
7、 rapidly cascading from country to country. The world has witnessed catastrophic losses of lives and rates of infectionas of the writing of this report (November 2020), almost 1.3 million deaths from just under 53.0 million infections globally. The social and economic upheaval caused by COVID-19 has
8、 raised questions about 5Gs role in a post-pandemic world. Indeed, the isolation induced by efforts to contain COVID-19 has underscored the importance of communication technology in keeping social networks connected and economic systems resilient. IHS Markit expects the continual and deepening deplo
9、yment of 5G (and the products, services, and experiences that will likely flow from it) to fundamentally support and enable the emergent requirements of the post-pandemic world for connectivity, flexibility, and resiliency. This will encourage on-going investments in 5G technology in the form of cap
10、ital expenditures (CAPEX) and research and development (R even as many other investment activities saw sharp declines. In fact, IHS Markits new forecast shows a 10.8% net increase in global 5G investment and R MIoT sales enablement will be highest in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, public
11、 service, financial and insurance, and mining and quarrying; and MCS will have the highest sales enablement in financial and insurance, transport and storage, health and social work, agriculture, forestry and fishing, and utilities. In 2035, the greatest sales enablement in absolute 2016 dollar term
12、s is expected to occur for manufacturing (almost $4.7 trillion), while as a percent of total industry sales, it is expected to be highest for information and communication (10.9%), more than twice the expected overall industry average (5.1%). IHS Markit anticipates that post COVID-19 global economic
13、 growth trajectory will be lower than the pre- pandemic forecasts that informed the 5G economic contribution assessments in the IHS Markit 2019 report. Indeed, the IHS Markit current forecast for global gross output (sales) in 2035 is about 2.8% lower than the pre- pandemic forecast, and the world r
14、eal GDP forecast is lower by 3.1%. In contrast, IHS Markits revised forecast for 5G sales enablement, of $13.1 trillion, is a contraction by only about 0.6%, significantly less than the global contraction in gross output and GDP. Furthermore, 5G sales enablement share of overall industry output is f
15、orecast to actually increase to 5.1% from 5.0% of global sales in 2035. Both of these indicate that 5G will continue to be viewed as a critical lever for generating sales across a broad range of industries. Industry Enhanced Mobile Broadband Massive Internet of Things Mission Critical Services 5G-en
16、abled sales (2016$, B) Percent of industry sales Manufacturing$4,7715.5% Information therefore, hiring them to build out 5G is not taking them away from another profitable opportunity. The dynamics show that the effects become slightly greater in the medium term in response to a second wave of 5G-re
17、lated investment. Regardless of any debate over the impact of COVID-19 on 5G, it is hard to argue that the 5G train is already in motion, and the only question is when or how soon it will get to the many destinations along the track. The economic benefits of 5G technology can be realized, but it wil
18、l require the ecosystem to work together to speed deployment. This includes policymakers and regulators as well as the system integrators, MNOs, etc. The economic impacts can be viewed as the lower bound estimate. Impacts can be higher if the technology is more quickly deployed. Impacts can also be
19、higher if entrepreneurs and innovators harness this technology to solve some of our most pressing challenges. These solutions, particularly those that help bridge the digital divide so that IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS M
20、arkit. All rights reserved. 7 November 2020 more people can participate in the information economy, will unleash value streams that will help grow the global economy for everyone. Introduction These are heady times for the new mobile technology commonly known as 5G. Rarely has the world anticipated
21、with such enthusiasm for the arrival of a communications technology that has been described as “disruptive,” “transformational,” and a “general purpose technology.” Now that its early version is herewith much more expected to come over the next 10-15 yearsobservers are counting the ways 5G will chan
22、ge or materially influence almost every aspect of human activity. The arrival in early 2020 of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (also known as COVID-19) and its rapid global spread have been the other big developments of 2020. Over the past 10 months or so, the world has witnessed a catastrophic loss of lives a
23、nd rates of infectionas of the writing of this report (November 2020), almost 1.3 million deaths from just under 53.0 million infections globally (Johns Hopkins, 2020). This colossal healthcare crisis has dampened expectations in the near term for 5G in some respects. It is also heightening opportun
24、ities for 5G to come to the rescue in unexpected ways as lockdowns and social distancing measures pushed people towards virtual interactions; raised the imperative for being able to track supply chains and inventory in real time; and accelerated the behavioral transition for acceptance of e-commerce
25、 and telemedicine. The unwelcome intervention of the COVID-19 pandemic has raised a host of questions about the prospects for 5Gs long deployment cycle (of up to 15 years). Several of those questions, particularly those about 5Gs global economic impacts in a post-pandemic world, are addressed in thi
26、s report. Both COVID-19 and the availability of 5G (and the products that will likely flow from it) are expected to fundamentally alter behaviors of the 5G user community, from the individual level to whole communities. At the same time, investments in 5G technology in the form of capital expenditur
27、es (CAPEX) and research and development (R particularly if individuals, businesses, and governments leverage 5Gs potential to tackle pressing challenges. Finally, it reviews potential headwinds that 5G may face as it is rolled out. IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G i
28、n a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. 8 November 2020 Historical context for 5G 5G is a fifth-generation mobile communication standard that has followed nearly four decades of evolution through several preceding standards, namely, 2G, 3G, and 4G/LTE. Along the way, mo
29、bile telephony has gone from voice communication only to all forms of information flows; first over the early internet and then broadband at different speeds. Because 5G promises so much more than its predecessor standards, questions are often raised as to whether 5G is just an “evolution” from the
30、4G/LTE standard or a bona fide “revolution” heralding a significant break from the past model of serving primarily the mass consumer market (Lemstra, 2018). To understand why 5G has brought the world economy to the cusp of major transformational change, and is perfectly positioned to be a part of it
31、, it is instructive to reflect on recent history. In early to mid-1990s, traditional (voice) communication services moved from analog to digital to personal communications services even as the internet was diffusing rapidly thanks to the new-fangled World Wide Web. Soon, “information” was elevated a
32、bove “communication,” giving rise to information and communication technologies (ICT). The great “convergence” of communication, the internet, and entertainment occurred in the early to mid-2000s with new innovations that allowed people to not only have mobile communication, but mobile information a
33、s well. The future of ICT became wireless at that point, followed by a proliferation of portable handsets and devices as 3G and 4G dramatically altered the communication and information landscape. New services ranging from retail and banking to news and entertainment, from email and messaging to nav
34、igation, and from music to photography contributed to a dizzying array of ways to use the mobile device. With a decade-long history of increasing consumer acceptance, this set the stage for a substantial breakout in mobile “communications.” 5G is about to deliver on that front; its time has come. In
35、 the industrial space, the information age was also slowly taking over the industrial age. More and more machines were getting equipped with sensors and connected to programmable logical controls (PLCs). These would be the precursors to the IoT. Machines began to have remote troubleshooting capabili
36、ties and remote diagnostics over wired communication lines. From there, it was just a matter of time for connections to be wireless. There emerged a growing skills gap for machine operators and engineers that were trained for troubleshooting mechanical operations, not computer-electrical operations
37、that controlled the mechanics. As more and more of these industrial processes become controlled using 5G technology that allows for more cloud, edge computing, and AI and ML techniques to optimize processes, skills training will be a critical piece for the proof of concepts. The promise of 5G Follow
38、ing its much-anticipated launch in many countries during the last year, the 5G standard promises unprecedented progress and benefits on several fronts: communication, education, automation, healthcare, connected cars, public safety, productivity, process efficiency, new product development, governan
39、ce, gaming and entertainment, and many more. Wide-ranging use cases and applications for 5G are envisioned, broadly categorized as enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), massive internet of things (MIoT), and mission critical services (MCS),3 with both performance and the range of applications set to exp
40、and as the 5G standard itself evolves. IHS Markit expects that 5G will become a mature technology with all three categories of use cases fully deployed by 2035. IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. 9
41、 November 2020 The three main 5G use case categories eMBB Two key facets of eMBB will drive adoption and value creation in the 5G economy. The first is extending cellular coverage into a broader range of structures, including office buildings, industrial parks, shopping malls, and large venues. The
42、second is improved capacity to handle a significantly greater number of devices using high volumes of data, especially in localized areas. These improvements to the network will enable more-efficient data transmission, resulting in lower cost per bit for data transmission, which will be an important
43、 driver for increased use of broadband applications on mobile networks. MIoT 5G will build upon earlier investments in traditional machine-to-machine (M2M) and IoT applications to enable significant increases in economies of scale that drive adoption and utilization across all sectors. 5Gs improved
44、low-power requirements, ability to operate in licensed and unlicensed spectrum, and ability to provide deeper and more flexible coverage will drive significantly lower costs within MIoT settings. This will, in turn, enable the scale of MIoT and drive a much greater uptake of mobile technologies to a
45、ddress MIoT applications. MCS MCS represents a new market opportunity for mobile technology. This significant growth area for 5G will support applications that require high reliability, ultra-low latency connectivity with strong security and availability. This will allow wireless technology to provi
46、de an ultra-reliable connection that is indistinguishable from wireline to support applications such as autonomous vehicles and remote operation of complex automation equipment where failure is not an option. Source: IHS Markit 2020 IHS Markit The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), a stand
47、ards-setting consortium that develops protocols for mobile communications, completed Release 15, the first full set of 5G standards, in 2018. This release governs primarily eMBB use cases, while future Releases 16 and 17 will do the same for MIoT and MCS use cases (although they will also cover some
48、 additional eMBB use cases as well as things such as V2X, private networks, unlicensed spectrum, and industrial IoT).4 Even though 5G is in its early stages, unlike its precursor 4G, it promises many new industrial use cases. Those use cases will drive value in terms of cost savings and efficiencies
49、, new sources of revenue, more “intelligent” products, and better customer experiences. Many enterprises and industrial companies are taking advantage of 5Gs long-game nature and are currently engaged in trials and proofs-of-concept to validate 5Gs technical suitability for their use cases and returns on investment IHS Markit | The 5G Economy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: The role of 5G in a post-pandemic world economy 2020 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. 10 November 2020 (Blackman, 2019; Busine