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1、Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2021: Approaching the dawn Vanguard Research December 2020 While the global economy continues to recover as we head into 2021, the battle between the virus and humanitys efforts to stanch it continues. Our outlook for the global economy hinges critically on h
2、ealth outcomes. The recoverys path is likely to prove uneven and varied across industries and countries, even with an effective vaccine in sight. In China, we see the robust recovery extending in 2021 with growth of 9%. Elsewhere, we expect growth of 5% in the U.S. and 5% in the euro area, with thos
3、e economies making meaningful progress toward full employment levels in 2021. In emerging markets, we expect a more uneven and challenging recovery, with growth of 6%. When we peek beyond the long shadow of COVID-19, we see the pandemic irreversibly accelerating trends such as work automation and di
4、gitization of economies. However, other more profound setbacks brought about by the lockdowns and recession will ultimately prove temporary. Assuming a reasonable path for health outcomes, the scarring effect of permanent job losses is likely to be limited. Our fair-value stock projections continue
5、to reveal a global equity market that is neither grossly overvalued nor likely to produce outsized returns going forward. This suggests, however, that there may be opportunities to invest broadly around the world and across the value spectrum. Given a lower-for-longer rate outlook, we find it hard t
6、o see a material uptick in fixed income returns in the foreseeable future. 2 Vanguard Investment Strategy Group Vanguard Global Economics and Capital Markets Outlook Team Joseph Davis, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist Americas Roger A. Aliaga-Daz, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Americas Kevin DiCiurcio, CFA K
7、elly Farley Joshua M. Hirt, CFA Ian Kresnak, CFA Jonathan Lemco, Ph.D. Olga Lepigina Vytautas Maciulis, CFA Andrew J. Patterson, CFA Asawari Sathe, M.Sc. Maximilian Wieland Daniel Wu, Ph.D. Europe Peter Westaway, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Europe Edoardo Cilla, M.Sc. Alexis Gray, M.Sc. Shaan Raithatha,
8、 CFA Roxane Spitznagel, M.Sc. Asia-Pacific Qian Wang, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific Alex Qu Adam J. Schickling, CFA Beatrice Yeo, CFA Editorial note This publication is an update of Vanguards annual economic and market outlook for 2021 for key economies around the globe. Aided by Vanguard Cap
9、ital Markets Model simulations and other research, we also forecast future performance for a broad array of fixed income and equity asset classes. Acknowledgments We thank Corporate Communications, Strategic Communications, and the Global Economics and Capital Markets Outlook teams for their signifi
10、cant contributions to this piece. Further, we would like to acknowledge the work of Vanguards broader Investment Strategy Group, without whose tireless research efforts this piece would not be possible. Lead authors Joseph Davis, Ph.D. Global Chief Economist Roger A. Aliaga-Daz, Ph.D. Chief Economis
11、t, Americas Peter Westaway, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Europe Qian Wang, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific Andrew J. Patterson, CFA Senior Economist Kevin DiCiurcio, CFA Senior Investment Strategist Alexis Gray, M.Sc. Senior Economist Joshua M. Hirt, CFA Senior Economist Jonathan Lemco, Ph.D. Senior I
12、nvestment Strategist 3 Contents Global outlook summary.4 I. Global economic perspectives .6 Global economic outlook: Approaching the dawn .6 United States: Improvement ahead .15 Euro area: Pandemic accelerates fiscal integration .19 United Kingdom: Brexit risks continue to weigh on outlook .22 China
13、: First in, first out, and first to normalize .24 Japan: A new leader faces familiar challenges .27 Emerging markets: Health care challenges but economic opportunities globally .29 II. Global capital markets outlook .35 Global equity markets: A wild ride back to where we started .35 Global fixed inc
14、ome markets: A gradually evolving curve .40 Portfolio implications: Low return environment persists, but marginal equity risk is better compensated .42 III. Appendix .48 About the Vanguard Capital Markets Model .48 Index simulations .49 Notes on asset-return distributions The asset-return distributi
15、ons shown here represent Vanguards view on the potential range of risk premiums that may occur over the next ten years; such long-term projections are not intended to be extrapolated into a short-term view. These potential outcomes for long-term investment returns are generated by the Vanguard Capit
16、al Markets Model (VCMM) and reflect the collective perspective of our Investment Strategy Group. The expected risk premiumsand the uncertainty surrounding those expectationsare among a number of qualitative and quantitative inputs used in Vanguards investment methodology and portfolio construction p
17、rocess. IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are der
18、ived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of September 30, 2020. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time. For more information, see the Appendix section “About the Vanguard Capital Markets Model.” 4 Global outlook summary Global economy in 2021
19、: Closing the immunity gap The COVID-19 pandemic has produced the most pronounced economic shock in nearly a century. In 2020, recessions around the world were sharp and deep, with significant supply-chain disruptions. That said, more than in previous recessions, policymakers were aggressive in supp
20、orting financial markets and their economies. While the global economy continues to recover as we head into 2021, the battle between the virus and humanitys efforts to stanch it continues. For 2021, our outlook for the global economy hinges critically on health outcomes. Specifically, our baseline f
21、orecast assumes that an effective combination of vaccine and therapeutic treatments should ultimately emerge to gradually allow an easing of government restrictions on social interaction and a lessening of consumers economic hesitancy. But the recoverys path is likely to prove uneven and varied acro
22、ss industries and countries, even with an effective vaccine in sight. As we said in our midyear 2020 outlook, it will be some time before many economies return to their pre-COVID levels of employment and output. The unevenness of our cyclical growth outlook is reflected in the worlds major economies
23、. China, where control of the pandemic has been more effective, has swiftly returned to near pre-pandemic levels of activity, and we see that extending in 2021 with growth of 9%. Elsewhere, the viruss prevalence has been less well-controlled. We expect growth of 5% in the U.S. and 5% in the euro are
24、a, with those economies still falling short of full employment levels in 2021. In emerging markets, we expect a more uneven recovery, with aggregate growth of 6%. Risks to our baseline growth forecast are biased to the upside, reflecting the chance of further breakthroughs in vaccine development. Bo
25、th monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive in 2021, but the primary risk factor is the pandemics fate and path. COVID-19s long shadow: A pivotal moment in history When we peek beyond the long shadow of COVID-19, our research and read of history suggest that the pandemic will have certain e
26、ffects on the economy, markets, and policy. We can split these effects into four categories: 1. A profound yet ultimately temporary setback. Social activities and the industries most reliant on them will rebound, as they have following past pandemics. Consumer reluctance from fear of catching COVID-
27、19 will determine the path, but eventually social activities ranging from concert-going to traveling will resume. While the immediate pain of job losses is great for many families and industries, we believe that, assuming a reasonable path for health outcomes and additional policy support, the scarr
28、ing effect of permanent job losses is likely to be limited. 2. An accelerated future. Trends that Vanguard and others have previously discussed, ranging from work automation to digital technologies to certain business- model disruptions, have only been accelerated by the shock of COVID-19. This outl
29、ook lays out how pervasive the future of virtual work could be and what broader macroeconomic effects may result. 3. Pivots in policy. This crisis has seemingly altered the expectations of, and preferences for, certain government policies, ranging from more forceful efforts by central banks to drive
30、 up inflation to more aggressive spending by fiscal authorities amid economic headwinds. These intentions are unlikely to be reversed quickly, producing potential new risks on the investment horizon. 4. Unaltered reality. Despite the extraordinary events of 2020, some aspects of the global economy m
31、ay ultimately stay as they are. In our view, these would include the multifaceted U.S.-China relationship and the likelihood of increasing innovation in the years ahead, as suggested by Vanguards “Idea Multiplier.” Global inflation: Modest reflation “yes”; a return to high inflation “no” In 2021, we
32、 anticipate a cyclical bounce in consumer inflation from pandemic lows near 1% to rates closer to 2% as spare capacity is used up and the recovery continues. However, as growth and inflation firm, and as the immunity gap closes, an “inflation scare” is possible. A risk is that markets could confuse
33、this modest reflationary bounce with a more severe but unlikely episode. Our baseline projections reflect our belief that inflation rates persistently above 3% are difficult to generate across many developed markets. Mounting debt loads, high fiscal spending, and extraordinarily easy monetary policy
34、 all have the potential to feed inflation psychology, 5 but any such influence would have to more than counteract high levels of unemployment as well as important structural deflationary forces at work in developed markets since before the pandemic. The bond market: Interest rates staying low in 202
35、1 Interest rates and government bond yields that were low before the pandemic are now even lower. We expect interest rates globally to remain low despite our constructive outlook for firming global economic growth and inflation as 2021 progresses. While yield curves may steepen, short-term rates are
36、 unlikely to rise in any major developed market as monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Vanguard expects bond portfolios, of all types and maturities, to earn returns close to their current yield levels. As 2021 unfolds, the greatest risk factor would appear to be higher-than-expected infla
37、tion. Global equities: Challenges and opportunities Yet again, disciplined investors were rewarded in 2020 by remaining invested in the stock market despite troubling headlines. The dramatic repricing of global equity risk during the initial shock of the pandemic was fairly uniform across global mar
38、kets, with the steep drop in discount rates explaining some (but not all) of this past years rebound in equity prices. Our fair-value stock projections, which explicitly incorporate such effects, continue to reveal a global equity market that is neither grossly overvalued nor likely to produce such
39、outsized returns going forward. The outlook for the global equity risk premium is positive and modest, with total returns expected to be 3 to 5 percentage points higher than bond returns. This modest return outlook, however, belies opportunities for investors to invest broadly around the world and a
40、cross the value spectrum. And while this range is below recent returns based on valuations and interest rates, global equities are anticipated to continue to outperform most other investments and the rate of inflation. Indexes used in our historical calculations The long-term returns for our hypothe
41、tical portfolios are based on data for the appropriate market indexes through September 2020. We chose these benchmarks to provide the best history possible, and we split the global allocations to align with Vanguards guidance in constructing diversified portfolios. U.S. bonds: Standard Citigroup High Grade Index from 1969 through 1972; Lehman Brothers U.S. Long Credit AA Index from 1973 through 1975; and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index thereafter. Ex-U.S. bonds: Citigroup World Government Bond Ex-U.S. Index from 1985 through January 198