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1、地缘紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位震荡地缘紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位震荡Geopolitical Tensions Persist, Global Oil and Gas Prices Fluctuate and Remain High朱军军朱军军 Junjun Zhu 胡歆胡歆 Xin Hu 2022年年6月月20日日本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声
2、明,请参阅附录。(Pleasesee appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Equity Asia Research2主要内容主要内容For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.俄乌紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位震荡俄乌紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位
3、震荡原油:欧美对俄禁运,油价维持高位震荡成品油:海外裂解价差高位天然气:欧美套利驱动全球价格上涨2. 投资建议投资建议关注受益油气价格上涨的上游资源及油服板块;关注低估值、边际改善的民营炼化、化纤板块。3. 风险提示风险提示3For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 原油:欧美对俄禁运,油价维持高位震荡原油:欧美对
4、俄禁运,油价维持高位震荡全球原油库存近五年底部;全球原油库存近五年底部;俄乌紧张局势持续,欧洲对俄石油禁运;俄乌紧张局势持续,欧洲对俄石油禁运;短期其他供给增量有限;短期其他供给增量有限;需求基本恢复至疫情前水平。需求基本恢复至疫情前水平。4俄乌紧张局势持续,国际油价高位震荡俄乌紧张局势持续,国际油价高位震荡For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report
5、on our website at 2020年下半年以来,在需求改善、年下半年以来,在需求改善、OPEC+减产的推动下,全球原油库存降至近五年底部区域。低库存环境下,减产的推动下,全球原油库存降至近五年底部区域。低库存环境下,2022年以来俄乌紧张局势持续,国际油价大幅上涨,目前维持年以来俄乌紧张局势持续,国际油价大幅上涨,目前维持100美元美元/桶以上高位震荡。桶以上高位震荡。资料来源:资料来源:OPEC月报,海通国际月报,海通国际图图 OECD原油库存(百万桶)原油库存(百万桶)图图 布伦特原油价格(美元布伦特原油价格(美元/桶)桶)资料来源:资料来源:Wind,海通国际,海通国际0204
6、0608000000Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec五年区间五年区间五年均值五年均值202120225供给供给-俄罗斯:俄乌冲突下,欧美对俄禁运俄罗斯:俄乌冲突下,欧美对俄禁运For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full
7、report on our website at 2021年,俄罗斯原油产量年,俄罗斯原油产量5.2亿吨亿吨/年(近年(近1050万桶万桶/天),出口量天),出口量2.3亿吨亿吨/年(约年(约460万桶万桶/天),占全球天),占全球10%以以上。根据上。根据EIA,从出口地区看(,从出口地区看(2020年),出口欧洲占比约年),出口欧洲占比约50%(约(约230万桶万桶/天),亚太地区占比天),亚太地区占比42%;从出;从出口主要国家看,中国、德国、荷兰、波兰、韩国、白俄罗斯分别占比口主要国家看,中国、德国、荷兰、波兰、韩国、白俄罗斯分别占比31%、11%、11%、7%、6%、6%。表表 俄罗
8、斯原油产量及出口量(万桶俄罗斯原油产量及出口量(万桶/天)天)资料来源:资料来源:Wind,EIA,海通国际,海通国际表表 2020年俄罗斯原油主要出口国家(或地区)年俄罗斯原油主要出口国家(或地区)1046 1053 1067 1095 1093 1112 1121 1026 1047 020040060080032000202021产量产量出口出口6供给供给-俄罗斯:俄乌冲突下,欧美对俄禁运俄罗斯:俄乌冲突下,欧美对俄禁运For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologie
9、s and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 欧美禁运欧美禁运。(1)美国:美国:3月8日,拜登正式签署禁止从俄罗斯进口能源的行政令。(2)欧盟欧盟:6月3日,欧盟通过第六轮对俄制裁,决定六个月内停止购买俄罗斯海运原油,八个月内停止购买俄罗斯石油产品,并禁止欧盟公司为俄罗斯石油船运提供保险和再保险,高度依赖管道运输俄罗斯原油的国家暂被豁免。此外,根据央视新闻援引环球时报报道,波兰和德国表示在今年年底之前也将停止使用俄罗斯
10、管输原油。根据欧盟文件,此次制裁覆盖欧盟现阶段进口俄罗斯石油的90%。影响分析影响分析。俄罗斯原油出口85%以上通过国家石油管道运输公司进行,其中外输欧洲的管道主要为Druzhba管道。根据Transneft官网,2021年其通过Druzhba管道出口原油3590万吨(约72万桶/天,占出口欧洲近1/3),其中通往德国、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利分别为31/17/7/10/7万桶/天。若德国、波兰在今年底也停止俄罗斯管道原油出口,我们预计此次禁运将影响俄罗斯原油出口超过200万桶/天。表表 俄罗斯国家石油管道运输公司(俄罗斯国家石油管道运输公司(Transneft)2021年出口流向年出口流
11、向资料来源:资料来源:Bloomberg,海通国际,海通国际百万吨百万吨万桶万桶/天天transneft出口出口合计合计201.84041.1独联体国家独联体国家11.723白俄罗斯10.721哈萨克斯坦1.021.2非独联体国家非独联体国家190.13801.2.1通过港口通过港口114.3229Novorossiysk19.739Primorsk36.373Kozmino35.170Ust-Luga23.2461.2.2通过跨国管道通过跨国管道75.91521.2.2.1通过通过Druzhba管道管道35.972德国15.531波兰8.417捷克3.47斯洛伐克5.210匈牙利3.471.
12、2.2.2到中国到中国40.080俄罗斯-哈萨克斯坦边境(中哈管道)10.020中俄边境(黑龙江)(中俄管道)30.0607潜在增量供给有限潜在增量供给有限OPEC+减产国:维持小幅增产减产国:维持小幅增产For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 从剩余产能看,从剩余产能看,OPEC+合计剩余产能约合计剩余产能约6
13、91万桶万桶/天,除去俄罗斯以及被制裁的伊朗外,剩余产能约天,除去俄罗斯以及被制裁的伊朗外,剩余产能约455万桶万桶/天,且集中在沙特(天,且集中在沙特(189万桶万桶/天)、阿联酋(天)、阿联酋(111万桶万桶/天)、伊拉克(天)、伊拉克(42万桶万桶/天)等国家。天)等国家。2021年年8月起,月起,OPEC+维持每月小幅增产维持每月小幅增产40-43.2万桶万桶/天的决议。最新一次会议,天的决议。最新一次会议,OPEC+决定将决定将2022年年9月增产提前至月增产提前至7-8月,月,2022年年7月协议产量环比增加月协议产量环比增加64.8万桶万桶/天。若不考虑俄罗斯,其他国家协议产量环
14、比增加天。若不考虑俄罗斯,其他国家协议产量环比增加47.8万桶万桶/天。天。从实际执行情况看,从实际执行情况看,OPEC+减产国实际产量远低于协议量,减产国实际产量远低于协议量,4月实际产量低于协议产量月实际产量低于协议产量277万桶万桶/天,产量不足主要来自于俄罗斯、尼日利亚、安哥拉等国家。天,产量不足主要来自于俄罗斯、尼日利亚、安哥拉等国家。图图OPEC+减产执行情况(万桶减产执行情况(万桶/日)日)资料来源:国际能源署(资料来源:国际能源署(IEA),),OPEC,海通国际,海通国际表表 OPEC+剩余产能(千桶剩余产能(千桶/日)日)OPEC国家国家可持续可持续产能产能2022年年4月
15、月产量产量剩余剩余产能产能非非OPEC国家国家可持续可持续产能产能2022年年4月月产量产量剩余剩余产能产能阿尔及利亚100010010阿塞拜疆60058020安哥拉115011600哈萨克斯坦刚果29026525墨西哥1690164050赤道几内亚1109416阿曼87084030加蓬2001946俄罗斯30伊拉克48204405415马来西亚94089050科威特27902662128巴林尼日利亚文莱沙特阿拉伯894苏丹阿联酋4南苏丹伊朗380025641236委内瑞拉750707
16、43利比亚1200913287OPEC总计总计33990286485342非非OPEC总计总计570OPEC+合计合计50030003200340036003800400042004400实际产量协议产量8潜在增量供给有限潜在增量供给有限伊朗:短期影响有限伊朗:短期影响有限For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full rep
17、ort on our website at 资料来源:资料来源:Bloomberg,Wind,海通国际,海通国际2018年美国制裁伊朗后,伊朗原油产量从年美国制裁伊朗后,伊朗原油产量从382万桶万桶/天降至最低天降至最低200万桶万桶/天左右,出口从天左右,出口从240万桶万桶/天降至目前天降至目前10-20万桶万桶/天。目前,美伊核协议谈判进展缓慢,我们认为即使谈判达成,伊朗原油完全回到原油市场仍需天。目前,美伊核协议谈判进展缓慢,我们认为即使谈判达成,伊朗原油完全回到原油市场仍需时间,短期影响有限。参考上一次美国取消对伊制裁后(时间,短期影响有限。参考上一次美国取消对伊制裁后(2015年年
18、7月),伊朗原油产量经过一年半时间从月),伊朗原油产量经过一年半时间从285万桶万桶/天提升至天提升至378万桶万桶/天(增长近天(增长近100万桶万桶/天)。天)。图图 2010年至今伊朗原油产量及出口(万桶年至今伊朗原油产量及出口(万桶/日)日)00500产量产量出口出口9潜在增量供给有限潜在增量供给有限美国:强调资本支出纪律,谨慎增产美国:强调资本支出纪律,谨慎增产For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stoc
19、ks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 美国页岩油企业现多强调资本支出纪律,优先偿债与股东回报,增产相对谨慎。根据我们统计的美国页岩油企业现多强调资本支出纪律,优先偿债与股东回报,增产相对谨慎。根据我们统计的8家主要页岩家主要页岩油气生产企业计划(油气生产企业计划(EOG、康菲、西方石油、先锋自然资源、戴文能源、大陆能源、康菲、西方石油、先锋自然资源、戴文能源、大陆能源、HESS、响尾蛇能源),、响尾蛇能源),2022年计划总产量同比增速年计划总产量同比增速4%-8%。 OPEC、EIA预计预计2022年美国原油
20、产量年美国原油产量1190-1204万桶万桶/天,同比增长天,同比增长70-85万万桶桶/天。天。表表 美国主要页岩油企业产量美国主要页岩油企业产量资料来源:资料来源:各公司官网、各公司官网、2019-2021年报等,年报等,EIA,贝克休斯,海通国际,贝克休斯,海通国际页岩油企业页岩油企业油气总产量(千桶油当量油气总产量(千桶油当量/天)天)20022E2022E同比同比康菲石油1348 1127 1567 176012%EOG能源818 754 829 858-9344%-13%西方石油1029 1347 1183 1140-1170-4%-1%先锋自然资源346 3
21、67 617 623-6481%-5%戴文能源326 334 573 570-6000%-5%大陆能源340 301 330 383-41016%-24%HESS311 332 315 325-3303%-5%响尾蛇能源283 301 375 369-376-2%0%合计合计4801 4864 5789 6029-62284%-8%图图 美国钻机及原油产量美国钻机及原油产量050002500020004000600080004000Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19
22、Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22原油产量(千桶原油产量(千桶/天,左轴)天,左轴)总钻机数(部,右轴)总钻机数(部,右轴)10潜在增量供给有限潜在增量供给有限IEA释放储备计划:短期扰动释放储备计划:短期扰动For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2022年年3月月31日,美国宣布将在未来日,美国宣布将在未来
23、6个月释放个月释放100万桶万桶/天战略原油储备(合计约天战略原油储备(合计约1.8亿桶),创有史以来最亿桶),创有史以来最大规模。大规模。4月,国际能源署(月,国际能源署(IEA)宣布在未来六个月释放)宣布在未来六个月释放1.2亿桶库存,其中美国亿桶库存,其中美国0.6亿桶(包含在此前宣布亿桶(包含在此前宣布的的100万桶万桶/天计划中)。天计划中)。IEA联合行动加上美国的承诺,未来六个月全球原油库存合计释放联合行动加上美国的承诺,未来六个月全球原油库存合计释放2.4亿桶(约亿桶(约133万万桶桶/天)。天)。资料来源:资料来源:IEA,海通国际,海通国际表表 国际能源署(国际能源署(IE
24、A)1.2亿桶原油储备释放计划各国明细(千桶)亿桶原油储备释放计划各国明细(千桶)6055980 60475000 4408 4000306022981608 1600624 531 483 451 369 20000300004000050000600007000011For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full repo
25、rt on our website at 潜在增量供给有限潜在增量供给有限IEA释放储备计划:短期扰动释放储备计划:短期扰动我们认为我们认为IEA释放战略储备为短期扰动因素,释放战略储备能一定程度缓解油价上行的压力,但目前全球原释放战略储备为短期扰动因素,释放战略储备能一定程度缓解油价上行的压力,但目前全球原油库存低位,战略储备释放后,全球原油库存将降至更低水平。以美国为例,截至油库存低位,战略储备释放后,全球原油库存将降至更低水平。以美国为例,截至5月月27日,美国原油战略日,美国原油战略储备储备5.3亿桶,若亿桶,若1.8亿桶战略储备释放完成后,美国原油战略储备将降至亿桶战略储备释放完成后
26、,美国原油战略储备将降至1985年以来最低水平。年以来最低水平。资料来源:资料来源:EIA,海通国际,海通国际表表 美国原油商业库存及战略库存(百万桶)美国原油商业库存及战略库存(百万桶)00500600700800Aug-82Aug-85Aug-88Aug-91Aug-94Aug-97Aug-00Aug-03Aug-06Aug-09Aug-12Aug-15Aug-18Aug-21商业库存商业库存战略储备战略储备12需求:逐步改善需求:逐步改善For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target
27、price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 全球原油需求整体处在后疫情时代的逐步恢复过程中,目前已基本恢复至疫情前水平(约全球原油需求整体处在后疫情时代的逐步恢复过程中,目前已基本恢复至疫情前水平(约1亿桶亿桶/天),我们天),我们预计后续将继续改善。预计后续将继续改善。资料来源:资料来源:EIA、OPEC,海通国际,海通国际表表 OPEC、EIA全球原油需求同比增速预测(百万桶全球原油需求同比增速预测(百万桶/天)天)20191Q212Q21
28、3Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22OPEC99.6694.0595.6097.66100.3099.2898.44100.74102.64EIA100.8694.2396.2998.35100.4498.8798.77100.12100.7313For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 油价支撑因素:
29、油价支撑因素:库存低位;库存低位;地缘紧张局势持续;地缘紧张局势持续;OPEC+维持小幅减产。维持小幅减产。油价压力因素:油价压力因素:IEA释放储备;释放储备;油价继续上涨对需求的抑制;油价继续上涨对需求的抑制;页岩油产量。页岩油产量。原油库存低位,俄乌紧张局势,油价高位震荡。原油库存低位,俄乌紧张局势,油价高位震荡。小结小结14For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest
30、full report on our website at 欧洲对俄石油产品禁运;欧洲对俄石油产品禁运;美国出口增加,我国成品油出口减少;美国出口增加,我国成品油出口减少;供需紧张,海外成品油库存低位;供需紧张,海外成品油库存低位;海外成品油裂解价差大幅上涨;海外成品油裂解价差大幅上涨;成品油裂解价差扩大,带动成品油裂解价差扩大,带动PX价格、价差大幅上涨。价格、价差大幅上涨。成品油:海外裂解价差高位成品油:海外裂解价差高位15欧盟对俄禁运,全球成品油供需紧张欧盟对俄禁运,全球成品油供需紧张For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologie
31、s and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源:资料来源:BP能源统计,海通国际能源统计,海通国际图图 欧洲石油产品进口来源(欧洲石油产品进口来源(2020年)年)图图 俄罗斯石油产品出口流向(俄罗斯石油产品出口流向(2020年)年)根据根据BP能源统计,能源统计,2020年俄罗斯出口石油产品总量年俄罗斯出口石油产品总量1.07亿吨(约亿吨(约214万桶万桶/天);其中,出口欧洲地区天);其中,出口欧洲地区574
32、6万吨(约万吨(约115万桶万桶/天),占俄罗斯出口总量天),占俄罗斯出口总量54%,占欧洲石油产品进口总量,占欧洲石油产品进口总量39%。6月月3日,欧盟决定八个月日,欧盟决定八个月内停止购买俄罗斯石油产品。内停止购买俄罗斯石油产品。俄罗斯俄罗斯39%其他独联体国家其他独联体国家5%美国美国17%其他北美其他北美1%沙特沙特8%阿联酋阿联酋3%其他中东其他中东5%印度印度4%中国中国2%其他亚太地区其他亚太地区4%北非北非9%其他非洲其他非洲1%中南美中南美2%独联体国家独联体国家44%北美地区北美地区17%中东地区中东地区16%亚太地区亚太地区11%非洲非洲10%中南美中南美2%欧洲欧洲5
33、4%美国美国21%加拿大加拿大0%新加坡新加坡3%中国中国3%印度印度1%日本日本1%其他亚太国家其他亚太国家9%非洲非洲3%中东中东3%中南美中南美1%其他独联体国家其他独联体国家1%欧洲欧洲54%北美北美21%亚太亚太18%其他其他7%16美国成品油出口增加美国成品油出口增加For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website
34、at 3月以来,美国成品油出口增加,截至月以来,美国成品油出口增加,截至6月月3日当周,汽油出口日当周,汽油出口96万桶万桶/天,柴油出口天,柴油出口120万桶万桶/天,分别较年初天,分别较年初增加增加43万桶万桶/天(天(+82%)、)、31万桶万桶/天(天(+35%),均处于近五年较高水平。),均处于近五年较高水平。资料来源:资料来源:EIA,海通国际,海通国际图图 美国汽油出口(千桶美国汽油出口(千桶/天)天)图图 美国柴油出口(千桶美国柴油出口(千桶/天)天)02004006008000Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJulAug Sep Oct N
35、ov Dec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值2020015002000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值2021202217我国成品油出口配额减少我国成品油出口配额减少For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on
36、 our website at 2021年以来年以来,受双碳等因素影响受双碳等因素影响,我国成品油出口配额下降我国成品油出口配额下降,2020-2021年分别下发成品油出口配额年分别下发成品油出口配额5903万吨万吨、3761万吨万吨。2022年年,我国成品油出口配额累计下发我国成品油出口配额累计下发1750万吨万吨(截至截至6月月10日日)。受配额减少影响受配额减少影响,2022年年1-4月月,我国成品油累计出口我国成品油累计出口860万吨万吨,同比下降同比下降52%;其中;其中,汽油出口汽油出口402万吨万吨(-39%)、柴油出口柴油出口162万吨万吨(-82%)、煤油出口煤油出口296万
37、吨万吨(+31%)。资料来源:隆众资讯,资料来源:隆众资讯,Wind,海通国际,海通国际表表 我国成品油出口配额(万吨)我国成品油出口配额(万吨)图图 我国成品油月度出口(万吨)我国成品油月度出口(万吨)出口主体出口主体2020年年2021年年2022年年(截至(截至6月月10日)日)中石油2048 1263 574 中石化2643 1473 671 中海油541 355 160 中化551 343 192 中航油15 7 4 浙石化100 290 134 中国兵器5 30 15 合计合计5903 3761 1750 00500600700Jan-17Jan-18Jan-
38、19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22汽油柴油煤油18海外成品油库存低位海外成品油库存低位欧洲欧洲For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源:资料来源:Bloomberg,海通国际,海通国际图图 西北欧西北欧ARA汽油库存(千吨)汽油库存(千吨)图图 西北欧西北欧ARA柴油库存(千吨)柴油库存(千吨)根据
39、根据BP能源统计,欧洲油品消费结构中,能源统计,欧洲油品消费结构中,40%-50%为柴油。为柴油。IEA数据显示,数据显示,2021年欧盟自俄罗斯进口成品油中年欧盟自俄罗斯进口成品油中42%为柴油,俄乌冲突下柴油库存紧张。截至为柴油,俄乌冲突下柴油库存紧张。截至6月月2日,西北欧柴油库存约日,西北欧柴油库存约150万吨,处于近五年底部;航煤库万吨,处于近五年底部;航煤库存从存从4月中旬开始回落。月中旬开始回落。图图 西北欧西北欧ARA航煤库存(千吨)航煤库存(千吨)40060080001600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017
40、-2021区间2017-2021均值202002000250030003500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值20206008000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值2021202219海外成品油库存低位海外成品油库存低位美国美国For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target pric
41、e formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源:资料来源:EIA,海通国际,海通国际图图 美国汽油库存(百万桶)美国汽油库存(百万桶)图图 美国馏分油(柴油)库存(百万美国馏分油(柴油)库存(百万桶)桶)3月以来,美国汽油、柴油出口增加,叠加近期夏季出行高峰来临,美国成品油汽油、柴油库存下降,目前月以来,美国汽油、柴油出口增加,叠加近期夏季出行高峰来临,美国成品油汽油、柴油库存下降,目前均在近五年底部区域。均在近五年底部区域。图图 美国航煤库存(
42、百万桶)美国航煤库存(百万桶)2002250260270JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值20200Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值2023638404244464850JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017-2021区间2017-2021均值2021202220供需紧张,海
43、外成品油裂解价差扩大供需紧张,海外成品油裂解价差扩大For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2022年以来,海外成品油裂解价差大幅提升。截至年以来,海外成品油裂解价差大幅提升。截至6月月8日,东南亚(以新加坡为例)、欧洲、美国日,东南亚(以新加坡为例)、欧洲、美国6月柴油裂月柴油裂解价差分别为解价差分别为51.3
44、/50.2/61.7美元美元/桶,汽油裂解价差分别为桶,汽油裂解价差分别为33.6/44.6/57.1美元美元/桶,而桶,而2019年成品油裂解价差年成品油裂解价差平均在平均在10-20美元美元/桶。桶。图图 东南亚成品油裂解价差东南亚成品油裂解价差(美元(美元/桶,以新加坡为例)桶,以新加坡为例)图图 美国成品油裂解价差(美元美国成品油裂解价差(美元/桶)桶)图图 欧洲成品油裂解价差(美元欧洲成品油裂解价差(美元/桶)桶)-5060新加坡汽油价差新加坡柴油价差-20020406080100120140美国汽油价差美国柴油价差-20-5060欧洲汽油
45、价差欧洲柴油价差资料来源:资料来源:Wind,Bloomberg,海通国际,海通国际21海外成品油裂解价差扩大,带动海外成品油裂解价差扩大,带动PX价格、价差大幅上涨价格、价差大幅上涨For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 资料来源:资料来源:Wind,海通国际,海通国际图图 PX价格、价差(美元价格、价差(美元
46、/吨)吨)PX可用于调油,由于海外成品油裂解价差高位,美国调油需求旺盛,当地芳烃装置负荷降低,同时叠加日韩可用于调油,由于海外成品油裂解价差高位,美国调油需求旺盛,当地芳烃装置负荷降低,同时叠加日韩装置检修,全球装置检修,全球PX价格大幅上涨。截至价格大幅上涨。截至6月月8日,美国、欧洲日,美国、欧洲PX价格分别为价格分别为1853美元美元/吨、吨、1783美元美元/吨,均创吨,均创2012年以来新高;年以来新高;CFR中国价格中国价格1514美元美元/吨,较年初上涨吨,较年初上涨620美元美元/吨(吨(+69%),价差),价差697美元美元/吨,较年初上吨,较年初上涨涨555美元美元/吨(吨
47、(+393%),价差接近),价差接近2012年以来高点。年以来高点。020040060080000Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22PX国内价差国内价差PX价格:欧洲价格:欧洲PX价格:美国价格:美国PX价格:价格:CFR中国中国22For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please
48、 refer to the latest full report on our website at 天然气:欧美套利驱动全球价格上涨天然气:欧美套利驱动全球价格上涨23俄罗斯是欧洲天然气重要来源俄罗斯是欧洲天然气重要来源For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2021年俄罗斯向欧盟及英国出口天然气年俄罗斯向欧盟
49、及英国出口天然气1580亿立方米,占总需求的亿立方米,占总需求的32%。向全欧出口管道气。向全欧出口管道气1680亿立方米,亿立方米,占总需求的占总需求的33%。资料来源:资料来源:IEA,海通国际,海通国际图图 欧盟及英国天然气需求来源欧盟及英国天然气需求来源图图 全欧天然气需求全欧天然气需求33%来自俄罗斯来自俄罗斯资料来源:资料来源:NGI,海通国际,海通国际26%25%29%37%32%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%00400050006000200192021自产(亿立方米)俄罗斯(亿立方米)其他地区(亿立方米)俄罗斯占
50、比(%,右轴)12%9%8%10%9%11%12%18%21%20%28%33%32%34%36%37%38%36%33%33%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2000021LNG俄罗斯管道气24荷兰、德国、意大利等是俄气主要进口国荷兰、德国、意大利等是俄气主要进口国For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to th
51、e latest full report on our website at 2020年,荷兰、德国、意大利、土耳其、法国对俄罗斯管道气进口均在年,荷兰、德国、意大利、土耳其、法国对俄罗斯管道气进口均在100亿方以上。亿方以上。表表 欧洲各国对俄罗斯管道气进口量(亿方)欧洲各国对俄罗斯管道气进口量(亿方)国家国家20000192020荷兰荷兰4345292947842751德国德国3533474579671657449416意大利意大利322
52、26220209土耳其土耳其7273270248290240154164法国法国89858286763130140波兰波兰999797英国英国6134259089匈牙利匈牙利69635360546057707310586斯洛伐克斯洛伐克5859435544383745506576捷克捷克90828379893138262240希腊希腊22729332531保加利亚保加利亚23252529283丹麦丹麦3347171817
53、1718克罗地亚克罗地亚2818芬兰芬兰48423735316塞尔维亚塞尔维亚21922222214比利时比利时53罗马尼亚罗马尼亚263225110西班牙西班牙2158斯洛文尼亚斯洛文尼亚55554556534瑞士瑞士33343334634北马其顿北马其顿波黑波黑23322222222爱尔兰爱尔兰35221131资料来源:资料来源:gazprom官网,海通国际官网,海通国际25德国、意大利等对俄气依赖度较高德国、意大利等对俄气依赖度较高For full disc
54、losure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 根据根据ACCESSPATH援引援引STATISTA,北马其顿、波黑、摩尔多瓦等国完全依赖俄罗斯天然气,德国、意大利、波,北马其顿、波黑、摩尔多瓦等国完全依赖俄罗斯天然气,德国、意大利、波兰等国对俄气依赖度达到兰等国对俄气依赖度达到40%以上。以上。资料来源:资料来源:ACCESSPATH援引援引S
55、TATISTA,海通国际,海通国际图图 欧洲各国对俄罗斯天然气依赖度欧洲各国对俄罗斯天然气依赖度100%100%100%94%93%77%49%46%40%24%11%10%6%0%0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%北马其顿波黑摩尔多瓦芬兰拉脱维亚保加利亚德国意大利波兰法国荷兰罗马尼亚格鲁吉亚 爱尔兰乌克兰26俄乌冲突下,俄对欧天然气出口减少俄乌冲突下,俄对欧天然气出口减少For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI ra
56、ted stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯主要天然气生产商俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯主要天然气生产商Gazprom 5月天然气产量比月天然气产量比3月降低月降低96亿方,亿方,5月天然气出口量(除月天然气出口量(除独联体外)比独联体外)比3月降低月降低44亿方。亿方。资料来源:资料来源:gazprom官网,海通国际官网,海通国际图图 gazprom天然气产量和出口下降(亿方)天然气产量和出口下降(亿方) - 100 200 300 400 5001月2月3月4月5月2021产量20
57、22产量2021供应国内2022供应国内2021出口(独联体之外)2022出口(独联体之外)图图 预计预计gazprom出口将减少(亿方)出口将减少(亿方)0400600800002021出口2022E出口资料来源:资料来源:gazprom官网,海通国际官网,海通国际27欧洲天然气库存处于历史低位欧洲天然气库存处于历史低位For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,
58、 please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2022年年2月月22日,欧洲天然气库存为日,欧洲天然气库存为300亿方,比五年平均水平低亿方,比五年平均水平低28.57%。根据。根据Gazprom统计,截至统计,截至5月月30日,日,欧洲还需向储气库中充入欧洲还需向储气库中充入420亿方天然气,才能达到亿方天然气,才能达到90%库容水平。库容水平。资料来源:资料来源:IEA,海通国际,海通国际图图 欧洲天然气库存水平(亿方)欧洲天然气库存水平(亿方)005006007008009001000202120
59、22五年平均28增加增加LNG进口是欧洲减少对俄依赖主要途径进口是欧洲减少对俄依赖主要途径For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 欧盟计划在欧盟计划在2030年前结束对俄罗斯天然气供应的依赖,增加来自美国、卡塔尔等地的年前结束对俄罗斯天然气供应的依赖,增加来自美国、卡塔尔等地的LNG进口是减少对俄依进口是减少对俄
60、依赖的主要方法。赖的主要方法。资料来源:能源基金会援引资料来源:能源基金会援引Communication from the EU Commission: REPowerEU: Joint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy,海通国际,海通国际图图 欧对俄天然气替代方案(亿方)欧对俄天然气替代方案(亿方)图图 2030年欧盟俄气替代方案年欧盟俄气替代方案资料来源:能源基金会援引资料来源:能源基金会援引Communication from the EU Commission: REPowerEU: J
61、oint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy,海通国际,海通国际可再生能源,45%氢能,9%生物质甲烷,9%LNG,13%其他管道气,3%能效提升与室温控制,12%热泵,9%29美对欧美对欧LNG出口处于高位,国内库存降低出口处于高位,国内库存降低For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the l
62、atest full report on our website at 2022年美国对欧洲年美国对欧洲LNG出口持续上升,出口持续上升,2022年年1-3月累计出口月累计出口217.69亿立方米,同比上升亿立方米,同比上升152.68%,国内库存低,国内库存低于于2018-2021年平均值。年平均值。资料来源:资料来源:EIA,海通国际,海通国际图图 美国至欧洲美国至欧洲LNG出口(亿方)出口(亿方)图图 美国天然气库存(亿方)美国天然气库存(亿方)资料来源:资料来源:Wind,海通国际,海通国际007080901月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月 10月 11月 12
63、月20020600800100012001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月 10月 11月12月2022年18-21年平均30美欧间套利空间仍然存在,预计对欧出口将保持景气美欧间套利空间仍然存在,预计对欧出口将保持景气For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 俄乌冲突后
64、,美、欧之间套利空间扩大,美国对欧洲天然气出口显著提升。俄乌冲突后,美、欧之间套利空间扩大,美国对欧洲天然气出口显著提升。资料来源:资料来源:Wind,海通国际,海通国际图图 各国天然气价格(美元各国天然气价格(美元/MMBtu)图图 美国对欧洲天然气出口显著提升美国对欧洲天然气出口显著提升资料来源:资料来源:NGI,海通国际,海通国际056080亚洲(亿立方米)欧洲(亿立方米)南美洲(亿立方米)加勒比海地区(亿立方米)中美洲(亿立方米)05540452007200192022欧洲天然气美国天然气日本液化天然气312022-20
65、24年全球年全球LNG供需将偏紧供需将偏紧For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at ENP援引援引RystadEnergy GasMarketCube, Rystad Energy research and analysis,2022年,全球年,全球LNG需求将达需求将达4.36亿亿吨,超过吨,超过4.1亿吨产能。
66、亿吨产能。2024年后新产能才会陆续投产年后新产能才会陆续投产.资料来源:资料来源:ENP援引援引RystadEnergy GasMarketCube, RystadEnergy research and analysis,海通国际海通国际图图 全球全球LNG供需前景(亿吨)供需前景(亿吨)图图 未来各国未来各国LNG供给占比供给占比资料来源:资料来源:ENP援引援引RystadEnergy GasMarketCube, RystadEnergy research and analysis,海通国际海通国际01234567除俄罗斯以外生产除俄罗斯以外在建历史需求及预测美国,58%刚果(布),1
67、%莫桑比克,8%卡塔尔,8%阿联酋,5%加拿大,3%巴布亚新几内亚,3%墨西哥,13%尼日利亚,1%32For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 投资机会投资机会33投资建议投资建议For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target pr
68、ice formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 上游油气龙头:中国海油、中国石油等;上游油气龙头:中国海油、中国石油等; LNG接收站龙头,关注:广汇能源、新奥股份、九丰能源等;接收站龙头,关注:广汇能源、新奥股份、九丰能源等; 油服龙头,关注:中海油服、杰瑞股份等;油服龙头,关注:中海油服、杰瑞股份等; 此外,关注低估值、边际改善的民营炼化、化纤龙头:新凤鸣、荣盛石此外,关注低估值、边际改善的民营炼化、化纤龙头:新凤鸣、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、卫星化学、
69、恒力石化、桐昆股份、恒逸石化等。化、东方盛虹、卫星化学、恒力石化、桐昆股份、恒逸石化等。俄乌紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位震荡。俄乌紧张局势持续,全球油气价格高位震荡。34重点公司盈利预测及估值重点公司盈利预测及估值For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at 股票代码股票代码公司简称公司简称EPS(元)(元)PE(倍
70、)(倍)20212022E2023E2024E20212022E2023E2024E600938.sh中国海油中国海油1.49 2.33 2.41 2.48 12.52 8.00 7.74 7.52 601857.sh中国石油中国石油0.50 0.60 0.55 0.53 11.66 9.72 10.60 11.00 601808.sh中海油服中海油服0.07 0.63 0.74 0.88 216.43 24.05 20.47 17.22 600803.sh新奥股份新奥股份1.44 1.73 2.00 2.28 13.17 10.96 9.48 8.32 002648.sz卫星化学卫星化学3.
71、49 4.68 5.82 6.71 7.89 5.88 4.73 4.10 603225.sh新凤鸣新凤鸣1.47 1.52 2.27 2.65 7.64 7.39 4.95 4.24 002493.sz荣盛石化荣盛石化1.27 1.49 1.67 1.83 12.76 10.88 9.71 8.86 000301.sz东方盛虹东方盛虹0.76 1.10 2.23 2.37 23.49 16.23 8.00 7.53 600346.sh恒力石化恒力石化2.21 2.04 2.46 3.07 10.39 11.26 9.34 7.48 601233.sh桐昆股份桐昆股份3.04 3.21 4.0
72、0 4.77 5.54 5.24 4.21 3.53 000703.sz恒逸石化恒逸石化0.93 0.96 1.13 1.25 12.59 12.20 10.36 9.37 注:注:2022-2024年年EPS为海通国际预测,收盘价为为海通国际预测,收盘价为2022年年6月月17日。日。资料来源:资料来源:Wind,海通国际,海通国际35风险提示风险提示For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to
73、the latest full report on our website at 原油价格趋势性回落。原油价格趋势性回落。石化产品价格、价差下降。石化产品价格、价差下降。投资项目进度低于预期。投资项目进度低于预期。APPENDIX 1SummaryAs the Russia-Ukraine tension continues, global oil and gas prices fluctuate and remain high. In terms of crudeoil, due to the embargo measures taken by Europe and the United S
74、tates against Russia, a low level of crude oilinventories, and the state of small production cuts of OPEC+, global oil prices fluctuate and remain high. Interms of refined oil, the EU embargo on Russia, the global refined oil supply and demand is tight, the export ofrefined oil from the United State
75、s increases, the export quota of refined oil from China decreases. The crackingprice difference of overseas refined oil expands, leading to a sharp rise in PX price and price difference. In termsof natural gas, arbitrage in Europe and the US is driving up global prices.Investment Advice. Under the b
76、ackground of continued tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and global oilprices high and volatile, it is recommended focusing on (1) upstream recourse and oil service leading companies,including CNOOC, PetroChina, China Oilfield Services, Jereh Group, etc.; (2) undervalued private refining andchemi
77、calfiberleadingcompanieswithprofitabilityimproving,includingXinfengming,RongshengPetrochemical, Eastern Shenghong, Satellite Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Group, HengyiPetrochemical,etc.; (3) LNG terminal leaders, including Guanghui Energy, ENN, Jovo Energy, etc.Risks. Crude oil prices ten
78、d to decline; the price and spread of petrochemical products decrease; the progress ofinvestment projects is lower than expected.36APPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证
79、券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong Int
80、ernational Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and anyother members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certif
81、ication:我,朱军军 ,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I, Junjun Zhu, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectcompan
82、ies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendationsor views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or se
83、curities of the subjectcompanies discussed.我,胡歆,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I, Xin Hu, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about an
84、y or all of the subject companies orissuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial i
85、nterest in the security or securities of the subject companiesdiscussed.37APPENDIX 2利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking
86、 and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks orcompanies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the followingdisclosure does not ensure timeliness and
87、 completeness, please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司(统称“海通”)在过去12个月内参与了600028.CH, 000301.CH and 0386.HK的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括:1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目;2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目;3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co., Ltd.
88、and/or its subsidiaries (collectively, the Haitong) have a role in investment banking projects of 600028.CH, 000301.CH and 0386.HKwithin the past 12 months. The investment banking projects include 1. IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor, sponsor, or lead-underwriter; 2.equity or
89、debt refinancing projects of 600028.CH, 000301.CH and 0386.HK for which Haitong acted as sponsor, lead-underwriter or financial advisor; 3. listing byintroduction in the new three board, target placement, M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.作为回报,海通拥有603916.CH 及 000096.CH一类普通股证
90、券的1%或以上。The Haitong beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of 603916.CH and 000096.CH.600028.CH, 000301.CH 及 0386.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。600028.CH, 000301.CH and 0386.HK are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.38APPENDIX 2中
91、国石化集团江苏石油勘探局有限公司, 601857.CH, 无锡东方新格环境设计装饰工程有限公司, 化学工业第三设计院有限公司, 000703.CH, 002408.CH,002221.CH, 0857.HK, 青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处, 农夫山泉杭州千岛湖饮用水有限公司 及农夫山泉浙江千岛湖有限公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。中国石化集团江苏石油勘探局有限公司, 601857.CH, 无锡东方新格环境设计装饰工程有限公司, 化学工业第三设计院有限公司, 000703.CH, 002408.CH,00222
92、1.CH, 0857.HK, 青岛能源华润燃气有限公司,香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处, 农夫山泉杭州千岛湖饮用水有限公司 and农夫山泉浙江千岛湖有限公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.海通在过去的12个月中从601857.CH 及 0857.HK获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haitong has re
93、ceived compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 601857.CH and 0857.HK.海通担任600028.CH, 601857.CH, 601808.CH, 0883.HK, 0857.HK, 0386.HK, 2883.HK, 0384.HK, 2688.HK, 0135.HK 及 9633.HK有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider
94、 in the securities of 600028.CH, 601857.CH, 601808.CH, 0883.HK, 0857.HK, 0386.HK, 2883.HK, 0384.HK,2688.HK, 0135.HK and 9633.HK.39APPENDIX 2评级定义评级定义(从从2020年年7月月1日开始执行日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建
95、议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下各地股票基准指数:日本各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX, 韩国韩国 KOSPI, 台湾台湾 TAIEX, 印度印度 Nifty100, 美国美国 SP500; 其他所有中国概念股其
96、他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Rese
97、arch. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more completeinformation concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the ratingalone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be
98、used or relied upon as investment advice. An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed
99、the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.Neutral: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutr
100、al rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, I
101、ndia Nifty100, US SP500; for all other China-conceptstocks MSCI China.40APPENDIX 2评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution41APPENDIX 2截至截至2022年年3月月31日日海通国际股票研究评级分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市(持有持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率88.9%9.5%1.6%投资银行客户*6.8%5.8%0.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/
102、NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义(直至直至2020年年6月月30日日):买入买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下各地股票基准指数:日本各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX, 韩国韩国 KOSPI, 台湾台湾 TAIEX, 印度印度 Nifty100;
103、 其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of Mar 31, 2022OutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage88.9%9.5%1.6%IB clients*6.8%5.8%0.0%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY, Neutral, and SELL in
104、the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previo
105、us rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020):BUY: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.NEUTRAL: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return o
106、f its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmar
107、k, as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, India Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks MSCIChina.42APPENDIX 2海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本
108、面估值,而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation andother metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport t
109、o be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover an
110、d rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen. Haitong Securities (HS; 600837 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes research on these sameA-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating sy
111、stem employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in theHTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程,并结合对海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality
112、 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage atHS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-upresearch. Th
113、e Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.43APPENDIX 2MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款:评级免责声明条款:尽管海通国际的信息供货商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其联属公司(ESG方)从其认为可靠的来源获取信息(信息), ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性,准确性和/或完整性,并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保,包括可商售性和针对特定目的的适用性。该信息只能供阁下内部使用,不得以任何形式复制或重新传播,并不得用作任何金融工具、产品或指数的基础或组成部分。此外,信息本质上不能用于判断购买
114、或出售何种证券, 或何时购买或出售该证券。即使已被告知可能造成的损害, ESG方均不承担与此处任何资料有关的任何错误或遗漏所引起的任何责任,也不对任何直接、间接、特殊、惩罚性、附带性或任何其他损害赔偿(包括利润损失)承担任何责任。MSCI ESG Disclaimer: Although Haitong Internationals information providers, including without limitation, MSCI ESG Research LLC and its affiliates (the “ESGParties”), obtain information
115、 (the “Information”) from sources they consider reliable, none of the ESG Parties warrants or guarantees the originality, accuracy and/orcompleteness, of any data herein and expressly disclaim all express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
116、 TheInformation may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for, or a component of, anyfinancial instruments or products or indices. Further, none of the Information can in and of itself be used to determine which securit
117、ies to buy or sell or when to buyor sell them. None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any data herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect,special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of
118、 the possibility of such damages.44APPENDIX 2盟浪义利盟浪义利(FIN-ESG)数据通免责声明条款:数据通免责声明条款:在使用盟浪义利(FIN-ESG)数据之前,请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明:第一条 义利(FIN-ESG)数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司(以下简称“本公司”)基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成,本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考,并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议,也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接
119、损失负责。第二条 盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户,收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断,盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明,本数据(如财务业绩数据等)仅代表过往表现,过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有,本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面许可授权,任何个人或机构不得将本数据中的评估结果用于任何营利性目的,不得对本数据进行修改、复制、编译、汇编、再次编辑、改编、删减、缩写、节选、发行、出租、展览、表演、放映
120、、广播、信息网络传播、摄制、增加图标及说明等,否则因此给盟浪或其他第三方造成损失的,由用户承担相应的赔偿责任,盟浪不承担责任。第四条 如本免责声明未约定,而盟浪网站平台载明的其他协议内容(如盟浪网站用户注册协议盟浪网用户服务(含认证)协议盟浪网隐私政策等)有约定的,则按其他协议的约定执行;若本免责声明与其他协议约定存在冲突或不一致的,则以本免责声明约定为准。SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agre
121、ement and acceptance with these termsbefore using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1. FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co., Ltd. (In short, SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessible information. SusallWaveshall not be responsible for any accuracy and complete
122、ness of the information. The assessment result is for reference only. It is not for any investment advice for anyindividual or institution and not for basis of purchasing, selling or holding any relative financial products. We will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss of anyindividual or in
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124、of us only on the release day. We have right to update and amend the data andrelease other data that contains inconsistent contents or different conclusions without notification. Unless expressly stated, the data (e.g., financial performance data)represents past performance only and the past perform
125、ance cannot be viewed as the prediction of future return.3. The copyright of this data belongs to SusallWave, and we reserve all rights in accordance with the law. Without the prior written permission of our company, noneof individual or institution can use these data for any profitable purpose. Bes
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127、ctions. If any loss of SusallWave or any third-party is caused by those actions, users shall bear the correspondingcompensation liability.SusallWave shall not be responsible for any loss.4. If any term is not contained in this disclaimer but written in other agreements on our website (e.g. User Regi
128、stration Protocol of SusallWave Website, User Service(including authentication) Agreement of SusallWave Website, Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website), it should be executed according to other agreements. If there isany difference between this disclaim and other agreements, this disclaimer shall be
129、applied.45APPENDIX 2重要免责声明:重要免责声明:非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告:本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)发行,该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例(第571章)持有第4类受规管活动(就证券提供意见)的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International (Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”)的协助下发行,HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告:印度证券的研究报告:本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securitie
130、s and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited(“HTSIPL”)所发行,包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)上市公司(统称为印度交易所)的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌,经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布
131、。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源,但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期,如有更改,恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容,本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区,本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价,则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易,包括设计金融衍生工具的,有
132、产生重大风险的可能性,因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况,如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问,以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失,HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外,HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员,均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向H
133、TISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ,查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息:非美国分析师披露信息:本项研究上海品茶上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格,并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。46APPENDIX 2IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERFor
134、 research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), a wholly owned subsidiary ofHaitong International Securities Group Limited (“HTISGL”) and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securitie
135、s) for the purpose ofthe Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. (“HTIJKK”), a wholly owned subsidiary ofHTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports on Ind
136、ian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), an Indian company and a Securitiesand Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) registered Stock Broker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reportscoverin
137、g listed entities on the BSE Limited (“BSE”) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (“NSE”) (collectively referred to as “Indian Exchanges”). HSIPLwas acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”) on 22 December 2016.All the research reports
138、are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities CompanyLimited (“HTISCL”) and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compi
139、led or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but norepresentation or warranty, express or implied, is made by HTIRL, HTISCL, HSIPL, HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report maybe received, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.
140、All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to changewithout notice. This research report is for information purpose only. Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to becomplete and this research report is not, a
141、nd should not be construed expressly or impliedly as, an offer to buy or sell securities. The securities referred to in thisresearch report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions. If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors homecurrency, a ch
142、ange in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You should also bear in mind that recommenda
143、tions in thisresearch report are not tailor-made for you. The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances, such as your financial situation and riskappetite. You must, therefore, analyze and should, where applicable, consult your own legal, tax, accounting, financial and o
144、ther professional advisers to evaluatewhether the recommendations suits you before investment. Neither HTISG nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for anydirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.47AP
145、PENDIX 2HTISG and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document, will from time to time have long orshort positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research
146、report. Sales, traders, and other professionals ofHTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that arecontrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. HTISG may make investment decis
147、ions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions, ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention ofany recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for furthe
148、r information on HTIs organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the preventionand avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S. Analyst Disclosure: The HTI analyst(s) listed on the cover of this Research is (are) not registered or qualified as a research analys
149、t with FINRA and are notsubject to U.S. FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research; public appearances; and trading securities bya research analyst.48APPENDIX 2分发和地区通知:分发和地区通知:除非下文另有规定,否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香
150、港投资者的通知事项:香港投资者的通知事项:海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告,HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动(从事证券交易)的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成证券及期货条例(香港法例第571章)(以下简称“SFO”)所界定的要约邀请,证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项:美国投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由HTIRL,HSIPL或H
151、TIJKK编写。 HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司,均未在美国注册,因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的美国主要机构投资者(“Major U.S. Institutional Investor”)和机构投资者(”U.S. Institutional Investors”)。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时,HaitongInternational Securities (USA) Inc. (“HTI USA”) 将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国
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