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1、POSITION PAPER 5G APPLICATIONS Table of Contents 01 The widespread adoption of 5G requires high-performance, low-cost technology; it needs engagement and investment across the whole industry 3 02 International standards drive cost efficiencies and adoption6 10 03 Global spectrum harmonization, natio
2、nal exclusive licensing, and contiguous spectrum 13 04 5G applications represent tremendous opportunities for the economy and society 25 05 Healthy, productive, and supportive 5G ecosystem for sustainable innovation 28 06 Glossary 1 Executive Summary 1.1 5G is not just faster, but a new paradigm 1.2
3、 Investment by all stakeholders not just operators will drive growth and economies of scale that benefi t the whole 5G ecosystem 2.1 Standards benefi t consumers and companies as they lower investment and deployment costs, facilitate connectivity and foster interoperability 2.2 Cooperation among sta
4、ndards organizations and all stakeholders has been expanded for 5G 3.1 Multiple spectrum bands are required to address the wide range of 5G use cases and applications 3.2 Regulatory frameworks need to be supportive of 5G deployment and applications 4.1 5G is more than just business: It will have an
5、induced impact on key socio-economic issues 4.2 The industries that will leverage 5G to renew their business models and create more value 4.3 New business models emerging in pilot programs, combining multiple stakeholders to deliver innovative services 5.1 Governments and regulators define 5G plans
6、and initiatives, with greater transparency in regulatory policies 5.2 Regulation of other industries must evolve, which will require cooperation between institutions 5.3 Stakeholders should coordinate to build the capabilities required for potential applications, target business models, and the 5G e
7、cosystem 1 Executive Summary 5G is a new paradigm Delivering Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra-Reliable and Low-Latency Communication (URLLC) and Massive Machine-Type Communication (mMTC), 5G applications represent tremendous opportunities for consumers, homes, businesses and communities. 5G i
8、s expected to generate USD 12 trillion in revenues in 2035. 80% of telecom revenues (broadband, hardware, and services) will be linked to 5G in 2035. Furthermore, 5G will help reduce inequality by increasing access and lowering the cost of essential services, such as healthcare and education. By exp
9、anding the scope of wireless technologies and making devices more autonomous, 5G will help to reduce our carbon footprint and conserve natural resources. Last, economic growth will boost direct and indirect employment in all economies. Telecom operators, equipment vendors, and industry stakeholders
10、are transforming their respective industries using 5G applications, supported by national strategies New 5G applications are emerging, supported by national strategies: Telecom5G for home (e.g. Fixed Wireless Access) and mobile Manufacturing Smart factories IT NEEDS ENGAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT ACROSS
11、THE WHOLE INDUSTRY THE WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF 5G REQUIRES HIGH-PERFORMANCE, LOW-COST TECHNOLOGY; IT NEEDS ENGAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT ACROSS THE WHOLE INDUSTRY 4 1.1 5G is not just faster, but a new paradigm Built on 3 main pillars, 5G will create tremendous opportunities: Enhanced Mobile Broadband (e
12、MBB) will provide mobile network customers and industrial users with enhanced capacities, benefi ting B2C, entertainment and media, and other service sectors. Ultra-reliable and Low-latency Communication (URLLC) will support new use cases in mission critical applications (e.g. autonomous driving, re
13、mote surgical operation, industry automation). Massive Machine-type Communications (mMTC) will enable industry players to connect massive numbers of devices with specifi c connectivity requirements, in sectors such as manufacturing, utilities, and logistics. Much more than any previous generation of
14、 technology, the 5G paradigm brings together mobile network operators, equipment vendors, and other industry stakeholders, due to the broad range of technical and business opportunities opened up by 5G. Network operators have a central role in 5G deployment as they will run the 5G networks. They wil
15、l commit in the greatest part of the necessary CAPEX and OPEX. Equipment vendors develop 5G technologies, define and introduce 5G products (RAN, core network, services, handsets). Industry stakeholders are brought into the paradigm by the new opportunities with 5G. Many sectors are involved because
16、5G will enable massive innovation both on the product side (e.g. connected vehicles) and on the productivity side (e.g. industrial IoT). Figure 1: Three pillars of 5G and examples of related use cases Source: ITU 3D video, UHD screens Work and play in the cloud Augmented reality Industry automation
17、Self-driving cars Mission critical Gigabit speeds Smart buildings Voice Smart home/city Enhanced Mobile Broadband Massive Machine Type Communications Ultra-reliable and Low-latency Communication 5 Source: Roland Berger New paradigm Industry stakeholders Network operators Vendors 01 02 03 01 02 03 Mo
18、bile network operators are the natural investors in 5G. Projected investments will reach USD 1 trillion between 2018 and 20251: From an internal development standpoint, operator business models will be stressed by the exponential growth in demand for data (x6 between 2017 and 20242 ), which will inc
19、rease the costs of network management and the level of risk. Operators also have external incentives, such as users demand for better services and new applications, changes in the global competitive landscape, and their home nations infrastructure needs. Growing demand for 5G will trigger investment
20、 from other industry stakeholders as well. These massive investments will result in important scale effects. The cost of production and maintenance for 5G networks will fall, and the value of the networks will increase in the eyes of network users. These outcomes are supported by theories of network
21、 externalities (e.g. Katz and Shapiro3) or Metcalfes law: When more 5G products comply with the same technical standards, customers will benefi t more from affordable devices and high-quality services. As more vertical industries adopt 5G technologies, end users will receive more value from these in
22、dustries, as broad adoption of technologies increases the potential for interoperability and cooperation and drives the creation of new services. Investment and engagement by all stakeholders will lower the costs of 5G deployment and help to fulfi ll the potential of this new technology. The result
23、will be better economies of scale and enhanced value creation throughout the whole 5G value chain, both of which will be key levers for 5G adoption. 1.2 Investment by all stakeholders not just operators will drive growth and economies of scale that benefi t the whole 5G ecosystem 1 Investing in 5G,
24、GSMA Intelligence, June 2019 2 BuddComm, Roland Berger analysis 3 Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility, Michael L. Katz and Carl Shapiro, The American Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 3. (Jun. 1985), pp. 424-440. 6 02 INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS DRIVE COST EFFICIENCIES AND ADOPTION INTERNA
25、TIONAL STANDARDS DRIVE COST EFFICIENCIES AND ADOPTION INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS DRIVE COST EFFICIENCIES AND ADOPTION 7 Figure 2: Expansion of standards 2-5G Focus on 5G Source: Roland Berger Standardization process to continue as for 3G and 4G Standardization process to continue as for 3G and 4G Trans
26、ition from NB-IoT and eMTC to mMTC scope of standardization process expanding as advanced technologies introduce new use cases New possibilities offered by 5G, opening up new use cases standardization process to begin from scratch 5G 4G 3G 2G Use casesValue chain Scope of standards5G standards Voice
27、Handsets Mobile Broadband Handsets IoT Chips, devices and modules Chips, devices and modules URLLC RAN Core Network Services 5G standards will ultimately be required for microprocessors, devices, and device modules, as well as the 3 main layers of network infrastructure: Core network, the backbone o
28、f network exchanges, gathering and dispatching data packages Radio Access Network, made up of equipment that links the core network to user devices Services and systems, overall architecture and service capabilities Each of these layers requires the coordination of multiple hardware and software ele
29、ments that were developed by independent technology vendors. Interoperability amongst them is necessary to ensure good network performance and economic efficiency in production. Technical standards aim at ensuring interoperability. As 5G involves stakeholders from other industries, the standardizati
30、on process is broader than for 4G: it includes standards for specific application interfaces. For successful, universal 5G, it is vital to produce hardware with a general design based on common standards with fl exible network capabilities. If modules and user devices have standardized interfaces an
31、d specifi cations, the industry will benefi t from better scale effects and faster 5G adoption. 2.1 Standards benefi t consumers and companies as they lower investment and deployment costs, facilitate connectivity and foster interoperability 8 Founded in 1998 by regional standards organizations, 3GP
32、P produces the Technical Reports and Technical Specifi cations that defi ne 3GPP technologies: Nature of the organization: Non political role in decision-making, but a partnership between Standard Development Organizations (SDOs); culture of consensus drives decision making process; focused on scien
33、ce and technology Structure and procedures: Technical specification groups (TSG) dedicated to Radio Access Network, Services clearly defi ned agendas, deadlines, and rules 5G standards are developed by 3GPP in multiple releases. Release 15 started in 2017. Release 16 is set to be completed in 2020.
34、Release 17, expected for 2021, will bring more technologies for industry applications. Release 15 is the fi rst set of 5G standards including standalone 5G (5G RAN and the 5G new Core Network) and non-standalone 5G (a migration architecture helping MNOs to switch from a LTE to a 5G based system). St
35、andalone 5G was frozen in June 2018 and non-standalone 5G was frozen in December 2017. 2.2 Cooperation among standards organizations and all stakeholders has been expanded for 5G Figure 3: 5G standardization roadmap and milestones Sources: 3GPP website, 3GPP Workshop October 23rd-24th 2018, Roland B
36、erger TSG # 3GPP Release 15 3GPP Release 16 2017 Q1Q3Q2Q4Q1Q3Q2Q4Q1Q3Q2Q4Q1Q2 75777678798868788 3GPP Release 14 201820192020 Rel.14Extension Rel.15 Stage 1 Rel.15 Stage 2 Rel.15 Stage 3 Rel.15 ASN.1 5G Non-standalone 5G full incl. standalone Rel.16 Stage 1 Rel.16 Stage 2 Rel.16 Stage 3 5G
37、 Vehicle to X (V2X) 5G Industrial IoT 5G URLLC enhancements Rel.16 ASN.1 3GPP 3-stage methodology Stage 1: Service description from a service-users point of view Stage 2: Architecture to support the service requirements Stage 3: Concrete implementation of the functionality spectrum costs higher than
38、 10% of expected annual revenues may harm network sustainability. In some markets, spectrum is allocated using alternative models. For example, in Japan, frequencies were allocated to MNOs after an application process (beauty contest). Network synchronization should be considered to mitigate harmful
39、 interference. 13 04 5G APPLICATIONS REPRESENT TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY 14 Traditional broadband, hardware, and services revenue for telecom operators is expected to grow at 1% p.a. between 2019 and 2035. 5G will bring new opportunities for mobile operators (c. USD 600 bn
40、 by 2035) and will drive an estimated growth of 3% p.a. for the telecommunications industry as a whole between 2019 and 2035. 5G will make up c. 80% of service provider revenues, due to new business opportunities (industrial applications) and substitution of current 2G/3G/4G mobile broadband revenue
41、s4. 4.1 5G is more than just business: It will have an induced impact on key socio-economic issues 4 Roland Berger analysis 5 IHS Markit, The 5G economy: How 5G technology will contribute to the global economy, January 2017 The provision of 5G network and 5G application services with customized leve
42、ls of service (slices) could enable new business models for operators and industry stakeholders. 5G is expected to enable up to USD 12 trillion of economic output in 2035, which will represent about 4.6% of the global output5. Figure 4: Hardware and services revenues for telecommunications companies
43、 (operators, vendors, infrastructure) generated by mobile broadband and new 5G applications USD bn, 2019 - 2035 Sources: The Business Research Company, Mason, Technavio, GSMA, expert interviews; Roland Berger analysis Mobile broadband, hardware and services revenues 1,600 2,500 1,900 600 2.6% 1.0% 2
44、019-35 CAGR 20035 5G hardware and services revenues driven by new applications 2G/3G/4G hardware revenues (smartphones, networks) 2G/3G/4G services revenues 5G hardware mobile broadband revenues 5G services mobile broadband revenues 15 5G represents tremendous opportunities for the econom
45、y and all members of society: consumers, homes, businesses, and communities. The potential savings and improved efficiency of new technologies will trigger the democratization of many services. Connectivity will bring more information and education to all populations. New business opportunities acro
46、ss many different industries will boost investment and employment. By expanding the scope of wireless technologies and making devices more autonomous, 5G will help with the long-term objective of reducing our carbon footprint and conserving natural resources. 5G will be more inclusive, progressive,
47、proven, and powerful than any previous generation of communications technology. Figure 5: Global output of 5G in 2035 % of total output; 2016 USD bn Sources: IHS Markit, Roland Berger Information and communications Public service Agriculture, forestry and fi shing Transport and sotrage Manufacturing
48、 Hospitality Mining and quarrying Wholeslae and retail Construction Professional services Real estate activities Finance and insurance Arts and entertainment Health and social work Utilities Education Total 11.5 1,421 1,066 510 659 562 742 676 273 3,364 249 623 65 277 1,295 400 119 12 300 6.5 4.7 5.
49、6 4.5 6.4 4.6 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.4 2.3 Figure 6: Socio-economic impacts of 5G Source: Roland Berger Democratization of services thanks to low-cost 5G Better access to education at lower cost Reduced carbon footprintIndirect job creation thanks to increased investment and new business opportunities Reduction of inequalityEducation Sustainable developmentEmployment 5G mMTC Manufacturing Media & Entert. Healthcare Transportation Public servi