1、 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 18 Equity Research Company Report Equity Research Report 股股票票研研究究 公公司司报报告告 证证券券研研究究报报告告 Property Sector 房房地地产产行行业业 Central China New Life(09983 HK)建建业业新新生生活活 Company Report:Central China New Life(09983 HK)Chunli Zhan 詹春立(852)2509 7745 公司报告：建业新生活(09983 HK).

2、hk 5 October 2022 High Concentration To Underpin Solid Growth,Initiate With Buy 高密集支撑稳健增长，首次覆盖给予“买入”We initiate with Buy rating and TP of HK$3.20.We forecast the Companys 2022F-2024F EPS to be RMB0.526 RMB0.586 and RMB0.669,respectively,which represents a CAGR of 11%during 2021-2024F.With valuation

3、method using peers comparison for PE multiple,we derive our HK$3.20 TP for CCNL by applying 5.0 x 2023F PE.We initiate with Buy rating.Where we differ:1)we believe CCNLs high GFA concentration is a competitive advantage for further growth;2)CCNLs strong expansion capability from third parties is usu

4、ally ignored or underappreciated by the market;and 3)currently lower GDP per capita in Henan means more upside potential for the Company,instead of being a major concern.We like CCNL for its higher certainty in solid growth,amid the growth slowdown of the industry.We deem that the Companys regional

5、focus strategy should provide more certainty for further solid growth.Furthermore,we believe that CCNL will continue to solidify its scale leadership in Henan,leveraging its high GFA concentration and more potential cooperation with Henan SOEs.Catalysts:1)Faster growth from community VAS business;2)

6、larger increase in property management fee,alongside GDP per capita rise in Henan;and 3)more cooperation with Henan SOEs.Downside risks:1)Slower-than-expected growth in winning third-party projects;2)insolvency issues at CCRE;3)slower-than-expected growth in community VAS business;and 4)unexpected l

7、abor cost hikes.我们我们首次首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价 3.20 港元港元。我们预测公司 2022-2024 年每股盈利分别为人民币 0.526 元、人民币 0.586 元，以及人民币 0.669 元，对应 2021-2024 年的年复合增长率为 11%。通过可比公司市盈率估值法，采用 5.0 倍的 2023 年市盈率，我们得出建业新生活的目标价 3.20 港元。我们首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。与众不同的观点与众不同的观点：1）我们认为建业新生活的高密集性是进一步增长的竞争优势；2）我们认为建业新生活较强的第三方拓展能力通常被市场所忽略或者低估；

8、以及 3）对公司而言，目前河南省较低的人均 GDP 意味着未来更大的上升空间，而非是一个主要的担忧。在行业发展放缓的背景下，我们看好建业新生活稳健增长在行业发展放缓的背景下，我们看好建业新生活稳健增长的的较较高高确定性确定性。我们认为公司区域聚焦战略应将为其未来稳健增长提供更高的确定性。而且，我们相信建业新生活通过利用其高密集特点以及与河南国企更多的潜在合作，将继续巩固其在河南的规模领先地位。催化剂：催化剂：1）社区增值服务业务迎来更快发展；2）随着河南人均 GDP 增长，物业管理费有更大幅度提升；以及 3）与河南国企进行更多的合作。下行下行风险风险：1）获取第三方项目的增速慢于预期；2）建业

9、地产债务的偿付风险；3）社区增值服务业务增长慢于预期；以及 4）未料及的人工成本的增加。Rating:Buy Initial 评级：买入买入(首次覆盖)6-18m TP 目标价:HK$3.20 Share price 股价:HK$2.500 Stock performance 股价表现 (60.0)(50.0)(40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)0.010.020.0Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22%of returnHSI IndexCCNL Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1 个月 3 M 3 个

10、月 1 Y 1 年 Abs.%绝对变动%(15.1)(28.3)(47.9)Rel.%to HS Index 相对恒指变动%(2.9)(6.5)(19.0)Avg.Share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）2.8 3.0 3.8 Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.TYear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31(RMB m)(RMB m)(R

11、MB)(%)(x)(RMB)(x)(RMB)(%)(%)2020A 2,654 427 0.383 47.3 5.5 2.414 0.9 0.207 9.8 27.9 2021A 3,599 620 0.491 28.2 4.1 2.339 0.9 0.393 19.3 22.0 2022F 3,751 667 0.526 7.1 4.3 2.390 1.0 0.421 18.5 22.3 2023F 4,216 743 0.586 11.4 3.9 2.556 0.9 0.293 12.9 23.7 2024F 4,750 848 0.669 14.2 3.4 2.931 0.8 0.334

12、 14.6 24.4 Shares in issue(m)总股数(m)1,268.3 Major shareholder 大股东 Wu Po Sum 66.8%Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)3,170.8 Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)26.5 3 month average vol.3 个月平均成交股数(000)1,365.6 FY22 Net gearing(%)FY22 净负债/股东资金(%)Net cash 52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低(HK$)5.332/2.420 FY22 Est.NAV(HK$)FY22 每股估值（

13、港元）4.6 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Table of Contents Investment Thesis.3 Key Investment Logic.4 High GFA Concentration

14、to Enhance Leading Position in Henan.4 Third-Party Expansion Capability to Ensure Growth.6 Currently Lower GDP per Capita in Henan Means More Upside.7 Financial Analysis and Forecasts.9 Revenue to Keep Solid Growth Trend.9 Gross Profit Margin to Stay at Above 30%.10 Better Control in SG&A Expenses.1

15、1 Shareholders Net Profit CAGR of 11%in 2021-2024F.11 High Dividend Payout to Continue.12 Valuation,Catalysts and Risks.12 Valuation.12 Catalysts.13 Risks.13 Appendix 1:Company Background.14 Appendix 2:1H2022 Key Results.15 Financial Statements and Ratios.17 VYiWeXmUxUdYtYtYbRbP9PmOqQoMpNiNrQnNfQnNw

16、ObRnMqQxNpPnQvPnOpR See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Investment Thesis We initiate with Buy rating and TP of HK$3.20.We expect Central China New Lifes(CCNL,or the Company

17、)deepened efforts in Henan to gradually pay off,given its high GFA concentration and strong third-party expansion capability.Overall,we are confident that the Company can deliver solid earnings growth in the next few years.We forecast the Companys 2022F-2024F EPS to be RMB0.526,RMB0.586 and RMB0.669

18、,respectively,which represents a CAGR of 11%during 2021-2024F.With valuation method using peers comparison for PE multiple,we derive our HK$3.20 TP for CCNL by applying 5.0 x 2023F PE.We initiate with Buy rating.Where we differ:1)we believe CCNLs high GFA concentration is a competitive advantage for

19、 further growth;2)CCNLs strong expansion capability from third parties is usually ignored or underappreciated by the market;and 3)currently,lower GDP per capita in Henan means more upside potential for the Company,instead of a major concern.1.High GFA concentration.As at 30 Jun.2022,CCNLs average GF

20、A under management/contracted GFA in one city in Henan reached to 7.11 mn sq.m/12.83 mn sq.m.Given its better understanding of local clients preferences,we believe CCNLs high GFA concentration should help to enhance its leading market position in Henan,with economies of scale effect.2.Strong third-p

21、arty expansion capability.Moreover,given Central China Real Estates(CCRE,00832 HK)struggling contracted sales and weak financial condition,CCNLs strong expansion capability from third parties is ignored or underappreciated by the market.We believe the strong third-party expansion capability,especial

22、ly in non-residential properties,should be a key growth driver for the Company.3.More upside from currently lower GDP per capita in Henan.The third point is that we believe Henan province,currently with relatively lower GDP per capita,provides the Company a market with more upside potential.We belie

23、ve there is higher income elasticity of demand for both property management services and value-added services(VAS).Alongside the increasing GDP per capita in Henan,CCNL should have more room for growth.Based on the above three views,we have more confidence on CCNLs solid earnings growth,at forecaste

24、d CAGR of 11.0%in 2021-2024F.Under the assumption that GFA under management will reach 215 mn sq.m by 2024F,we project CCNLs revenue to maintain solid growth trend,at CAGR of 9.7%in 2021-2024F.Meanwhile,we expect relatively stable gross profit margin for CCNL at above 30%.Given relatively stable gro

25、ss profit margin and better selling,general and administration(SG&A)expense control,we forecast CCNLs shareholders net profit to record CAGR of 11.0%in 2021-2024F.We believe that CCNL will solidify its scale leadership in Henan,leveraging its high GFA concentration and more potential cooperation wit

26、h Henan SOEs.Also,the Henan market should provide sufficient room for solid growth with more certainty,against the backdrop of slowdown in market growth.Catalysts:1)Faster growth from community VAS business.2)Larger increase in property management fee,alongside GDP per capita rise in Henan.3)More co

27、operation with Henan SOEs.Key downside risks:1)Slower-than-expected growth in winning third-party projects.2)Insolvency issues at CCRE.3)Slower-than-expected growth in community VAS business.4)Unexpected labor cost hikes.See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New

28、Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Key Investment Logic High GFA Concentration to Enhance Leading Position in Henan Growing alongside its sponsor developer,CCRE,the Company has achieved deep market penetration in Henan province with presence in all th

29、e 18 prefecture-level cities(and also 101 of the 102 county-level cities).CCNLs property management portfolio has demonstrated a relatively equal layout in Henan,with leading market positions in almost all these cities.As at 30 Jun.2022,CCNLs average GFA under management/contracted GFA in one city i

30、n Henan reached 7.11 mn sq.m/12.83 mn sq.m.Given its better understanding of local clients preferences,we believe CCNLs high concentration should help to enhance its leading market position in Henan.Figure 1:CCNLs Full Coverage in Henan Province With High GFA Concentration Source:the Company,Guotai

31、Junan International.High concentration should help further market penetration,especially in non-residential management.In our view,considering CCNLs deep regional focus and established reputation in Henan,it is a great advantage for the Companys further expansion in this region,not only for resident

32、ial projects but also for various kinds of non-residential properties.According to the Companys disclosure,CCNLs contracted GFA in residential management increased by 10.36 mn sq.m in 1H2022.Since total residential property GFA sales in Henan in 1H2022 was 52.30 mn sq.m,the newly added contracted GF

33、A of the Company represents a high market share of 19.8%.Besides the expansion in residential management,we believe the Companys high concentration in Henan should provide it an advantage in obtained non-residential projects for management,including offices,hotels,schools,hospitals and other governm

34、ent facilities.Usually,non-residential property management has higher entry barriers,due to higher professionalism requirement.The Companys market recognition and concentrated resources in these lower-tier cities in Henan should make it easier to win bids for these non-residential projects.And hence

35、,there is great room for growth for the Companys non-residential property management,in our view.See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Figure 2:CCNLs New Residential Contracte

36、d GFA in 1H2022 Reached 10.36 mn sq.m Figure 3:Non-Residential Still Accounted for a Small Proportion of CCNLs Management Portfolio 10.3652.3000CCNLs new residentialcontracted GFATotal residential GFA sales inHenanmn sq.m1H2022 Residential properties,62%Others,19%Municipal services,9%Offi

37、ce buildings,3%Public facilities,7%GFA under management breakdown by end-8M2022 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.High concentration should provide more room for VAS business growth.CCNLs high GFA concentration,which implies servicing more cu

38、stomers through basic property management in one city,should also provide more opportunities for the Companys VAS business development.Despite adverse impact from the COVID-19 outbreak in Henan in the first half of 2022,we believe that growth momentum for VAS business will continue over the next few

39、 years.We think the large and concentrated customer base is an essential factor for development of CCNLs community VAS and lifestyle services.We take CCNLs housing agency services and travel services as examples.Like most of its peers,CCNL has property agency services.However,we think CCNLs competit

40、ive advantage is that it has a stronger network of customers due to high GFA concentration,which should help to complete more housing transactions.Also,utilizing its larger customer base in one city,the Company can easily organize all kinds of tours for customers,especially the tailor-made tours for

41、 certain customers.High GFA concentration should help to improve cost control.The third benefit from high GFA concentration is the economies of scale effect,which should enhance the Companys operational efficiency.Obviously,through resources sharing in management,CCNL has maintained a relatively hig

42、h GPM of above 30%(1H2022:31.8%),amid lower average management fee in Henan.Apart from the solid GPM,the Companys improved efficiency can be also evidenced by its declining admin expenses to revenue ratio.In 1H2022,the Companys admin expenses to revenue ratio further declined to 6.7%from 9.3%in 1H20

43、21.We believe the continuously improved efficiency should be largely attributed to the Companys high concentration of business in one city.With more visible projects in the pipeline in one city,CCNL has advantages in further improving its management effectiveness.In addition,looking into the near fu

44、ture,as the application of intelligent property management becomes more widely used,we believe its high GFA concentration should have much stronger and positive impact on the Company.Figure 4:CCNL Recorded Steady Revenue Growth in Community VAS and Lifestyle Services in 2019-2021 Figure 5:CCNLs Admi

45、n Expenses to Revenue Ratio Declined in The Past Few Years 285624864359305309366407206008001,00020H20211H2022RMB mnCommunity VAS revenueLifestyle services revenueGrowth was interrupteddue to the pandemic 23027323014610413.1%10.3%6.4%9.3%6.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0500300

46、20H20211H2022RMB mnAdministrative expensesAdmin cost-to-revenue ratio Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central Chi

47、na New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Third-Party Expansion Capability to Ensure Growth Third-party expansion capability is underappreciated by the market.Given the sponsor developers(CCRE)struggling contracted sales and weak financial condition,CCNLs strong expansion capability from third parties is

48、usually ignored or underappreciated by the market.In 2021 and 8M2022,the Companys new contracted GFA from third parties accounted for 56.5%and 61.2%of the total newly added contracted GFA.If we include M&A and GFA expansion through Central China Management Company(CCMGT,09982 HK),Central China Group

49、s project management arm,the percentage of newly added contracted GFA from third parties will be 89.9%and 83.8%in 2021 and 8M2022,respectively.Actually,we believe the Companys lower reliance on its sponsor developer should be attributed to two reasons.One is obviously CCREs weak contracted sales per

50、formance,which has become a major concern for CCNLs valuation by the market.Another is CCNLs strong brand awareness in Henan,which enabled the Company to maintain solid growth through acquiring new projects from third parties.We believe the latter is still underappreciated by the market.As at end of

51、 Aug.2022,CCNLs GFA under management from third parties accounted for 54.5%of its total GFA under management,while contracted GFA from third parties accounted for 62.9%.Figure 6:89.9%of Newly Added Contracted GFA in 2021 Came From Third Parties Figure 7:Third Parties Remained the Major Source of New

52、ly Added Contracted GFA in 8M2022 From CCRE,10.1%Bidding from third parties,56.5%Through CCMGT,15.8%M&A,17.6%Newly added contracted GFA in 2021 From CCRE,16.3%Bidding from third parties,61.2%Through CCMGT,22.6%Newly added contracted GFA in 8M2022 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:

53、the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure 8:Third Parties Accounted for Over 50%of CCNLs Total GFA Under Management Figure 9:Third Parties Accounted for Over 60%of CCNLs Total Contracted GFA 68.9%54.9%46.2%45.5%31.1%45.1%53.8%54.5%0204060800End-2019End-2020End-2021End-8M2022mn sq.mFro

54、m third partiesFrom CCRE57.0100.0135.9146.0GFA under management 60.6%46.6%38.8%37.1%39.4%53.4%61.2%62.9%0500300End-2019End-2020End-2021End-8M2022mn sq.mFrom third partiesFrom CCRE57.0100.0135.9146.0Contracted GFA Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Note:third-party projects incl

55、ude M&A and expansion through CCMGT Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Note:third-party projects include M&A and expansion through CCMGT Less dependent on connected transactions.CCNLs connected transactions with related parties was maintained at a relatively high level,mainly in commissio

56、n income and installation&decoration services,and property management services.However the connected transactions demonstrated a downward trend after its listing on the HKEX.The Companys percentage of revenue from connected transactions declined to 33.2%in 1H2022,much lower than that of 44.9%in 2020

57、.We believe that alongside its faster expansion in third-party projects and lackluster contracted sales from CCRE,the downward trend of CCNLs connected transactions will continue.Since CCRE may take longer to recover,we expect CCNLs connected transactions to See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 o

58、f 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report experience larger decline than market expectation in the next few years.In 1H2022,CCNLs revenue from connected transactions in commission income,installation and decoration servi

59、ces,and property management services declined yoy by 9.5%,27.8%,and 12.9%,respectively.Figure 10:Percentage of CCNLs Revenue From Connected Transactions Continued to Decline Figure 11:Revenue From Three Connected Transactions Declined Significantly in 1H2022 44.9%38.7%33.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%202020211

60、H2022%of revenue from connected transactions 110.0148.268.899.5107.059.90204060800Commission incomeInstallation anddecoration servicesPropertymanagementservicesRMB mn1H20211H2022 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.More opportunities

61、 in acquiring public and government projects.We believe the cooperation between Henan Railway Construction&Investment Group Co.,Ltd.(Henan RCIC 河南铁建投集团),a Henan SOE,and Central China Group should create strong synergy.On 21 July,Henan RCIC signed an agreement to acquire 29.01%of the shares issued by

62、 CCRE and committed to subscribe convertible bonds issued by CCRE.The strengthened capital of CCRE could help to reduce CCNLs account receivables from CCRE.More importantly,we believe the cooperation should provide good opportunities for CCNL to acquire more public projects for diversified businesse

63、s.Actually,besides Henan RCIC,Central China Group has signed several important strategic cooperation agreements with Henan SOEs in 1H2022.These SOEs include Henan Airport Group(河南省机场集团),Power China Henan Engineering Co.,Ltd.(中国电建集团河南工程有限公司),China Overseas Group(中海企业集团)and Luoyang Chengjian Group(洛阳城

64、乡建投集团).We believe the public projects,including transportation stations,factories,parks,hospital and properties of government agencies should be further potential growth drivers for CCNLs third-party expansion.Currently Lower GDP per Capita in Henan Means More Upside Higher income elasticity of dema

65、nd for property management services and VAS.The relatively lower GDP per capita in Henan used to be one major market concern for CCNLs better future development.How we differ from the market is that we believe this implies more growth potential,instead of a drag factor.We regard property management

66、services and VAS as normal goods and are necessities,and believe the elasticity of demand is higher when income is lower.In other words,when income goes up from a relatively low base,it will have more influence on customers demand and needs.As GDP growth slowed down in China,we believe that Henan pr

67、ovince should have higher growth potential in the property management sector than other cities,such as tier-1 and core tier-2 cities.According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China,Henans disposable income per capita in 2021 was RMB26,811,23.7%lower than the national average of RMB35,128.How

68、ever,on the other side,Henan province is the 5th largest provincial property management market in China,with total GFA under management of 1.7 bn sq.m as at the end of 2020.Overall,we believe that the property management industry has strong growth potential in Henan under the central governments goa

69、l of meeting the peoples aspiration for a better life.See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Figure 12:Henans Disposable Income per Capita is 23.7%Lower Than the National Avera

70、ge in 2021 Figure 13:Henan Has Relatively Lower GDP per Capita in China 78,027 75,002 57,541 47,498 44,993 35,128 26,811 015,00030,00045,00060,00075,00090,000RMB2021 disposable income per capita 183,980 173,630 137,039 113,032 98,285 80,976 59,410 040,00080,000120,000160,000200,000RMB2021 GDP per ca

71、pita Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.More room for raising management fee.In 1H2022,the average management fee for CCNLs residential properties was RMB1.73/sq.m/month,which was below the

72、 national average of RMB2.02/sq.m/month in 2021(according to China Index Academy).We believe CCNL should have more room for raising its management fee,considering its stronger growth potential in GDP per capita and faster urbanization process(target to reach national average by 2035).Also,we believe

73、 CCNL should have more bargaining power in increasing management fee,due to its high reputation in Henan.According to the management,the minimum price requirements for new handovers are higher than the existing fee level in prefecture-level cities(RMB1.80/sq.m/month vs.existing RMB1.59/sq.m/month)an

74、d county-level cities(RMB1.72/sq.m/month vs.existing RMB1.56/sq.m/month).Furthermore,the Company has successfully increased the management fee by 50%-100%in 22 projects under management.Figure 14:CCNLs Average Property Management Fee Is Below National Average Figure 15:CCNL Set Higher Minimum Requir

75、ement for Management Fee in Lower-Tier Cities 1.821.811.731.730.000.501.001.502.002.503.0020H2022RMB/sq.m/monthCCNLs average management fee2021 national average at 2.02 3.081.591.562.671.801.720.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50ZhengzhouPrefecture-level cityCounty-level cityRMB/sq.m/month202

76、1Min.requirement for new handovers Source:the Company,China Index Academy,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Community VAS business is still in the early stages,showing growth potential.In addition to basic property management services,many property management c

77、ompanies have spent significant effort to nurture their VAS business.Looking into the breakdown of CCNLs community VAS revenue in 1H2022,most of the community VAS revenue came from intelligent community solutions(51.1%),which is still a property-based business.Thats why we think CCNLs community VAS

78、business is in the early stages of development.We believe CCNLs community VAS business should be back on growth track,especially after the Covid-19 pandemic impact in Henan(community VAS revenue down by 15.1%YoY in 1H2022).Moreover,during the pandemic,a number of community VAS such as retail,group b

79、uying,car services,and door-to-door services will further integrate into the communities,in our view.Overall,alongside the increasing GDP per capita in Henan,we expect that the Companys efforts in more consumption-based businesses should see a payoff in the next few years.See the last page for discl

80、aimer Page 9 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Figure 16:Intelligent Community Solutions Accounted for the Biggest Part of Community VAS Revenue Figure 17:Opening of Central China Car Life Store in Shangqiu(商丘商丘

81、)in Sep.2022 Intelligent community solutions,51.1%Central China Consumers Club,23.3%Tunkey and move-in furnishing services,3.6%Others,22.0%Revenue breakdown of community VAS in 1H2022 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Financial Analysis and F

82、orecasts Revenue to Keep Solid Growth Trend Revenue was largely flat in 1H2022,but solid growth is expected in the next few years.CCNLs total revenue grew from RMB1,754 mn in 2019 to RMB3,599 mn in 2021,representing a fast CAGR of 43.2%for the period.In 1H2022,CCNL delivered largely flat revenue of

83、RMB1,565 mn,up by 0.1%YoY,mainly due to the negative impact from Covid-19 pandemic in Henan.Looking into revenue breakdown in 1H2022,both lifestyle services and commercial property management and consultation services recorded YoY decline,down by 48.7%and 9.9%,respectively.Meanwhile,property managem

84、ent and VAS still recorded decent growth of 8.5%YoY,supported by growth of GFA under management(up by 23.6%YoY).In view of our assumptions of further expansion in GFA under management and increase in management fee,we forecast total revenue of RMB3,751 mn,RMB4,216 mn and RMB4,750 mn in 2022F-2024F,r

85、espectively,representing CAGR of 9.7%.Figure 18:CCNL Recorded Largely Flat Revenue in 1H2022 Due to Pandemic Impact Figure 19:We Project CCNLs Revenue to Deliver CAGR of 9.7%During 2021-2024F 1,286 1,395 206 106 72 65 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8001H20211H2022RMB mnCommercial property manage

86、ment and consultation servicesLifestyle servicesProperty management services and value-added services1,5641,565Revenue breakdown 1,7542,6543,5993,7514,2164,75051.3%35.6%4.2%12.4%12.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,00020022F2023F2024FRMB mnTotal revenue(L

87、HS)Growth YoY(RHS)Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.GFA expansion and community VAS development are two sources of revenue growth.We are positive on two sources of revenue growth for CCNL.The basic revenue growth driver for CCNL is GFA expans

88、ion.We believe that CCNL has demonstrated strong capability in GFA expansion,especially from third parties.By end of Aug.2022,CCNLs GFA under management and contracted GFA reached 146.0 mn sq.m and 256.8 mn sq.m,respectively.Correspondingly,the secured pipeline GFA was 110.8 mn sq.m,which is expecte

89、d to be transferred into GFA under management within two years.We project CCNLs GFA under management to reach 215 mn sq.m by 2024F.The second main revenue source is community VAS.We expect CCNLs community VAS to contribute consistent revenue growth for the Company,considering:1)Henans economic recov

90、ery after the pandemic impact;and 2)its large customer base under Jianye+(currently 6.89 mn users).We project that CCNLs revenue from community VAS will steadily rise to RMB1,230 mn by 2024F,at CAGR of 12.5%during 2021-2024F.See the last page for disclaimer Page 10 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China

91、 New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Figure 20:We Project CCNLs GFA Under Management to Reach 215 mn sq.m by 2024F Figure 21:We Project CCNLs Revenue From Community VAS to Deliver CAGR of 12.5%During 2021-2024F 57.0100.0135.9162.4188.0215.075.5%35.

92、9%19.5%15.8%14.4%0%15%30%45%60%75%90%050020022F2023F2024Fmn sq.mTotal GFA under management(LHS)Growth YoY(RHS)2856248648691,0251,23002004006008001,0001,2001,40020022F2023F2024FRMB mnCommunity VAS revenue Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Compan

93、y,Guotai Junan International.Table 1:Revenue Mix of CCNL RMB mn 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Property management services and value-added services 1,341 2,199 3,041 3,281 3,701 4,174-Property management services 592 860 1,326 1,664 1,965 2,248-Community VAS 285 624 864 869 1,025 1,230-VAS to

94、non-property owners 464 715 850 748 711 697 Lifestyle services 309 366 407 346 387 446 Commercial property management and consultation services 105 90 151 124 127 130 Total 1,754 2,654 3,599 3,751 4,216 4,750 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Gross Profit Margin to Stay at Above 30%GPM i

95、n property management services is lower,but is still the key element.Looking at CCNLs margins in different segments,the Companys property management services has the lowest GPM,in the range of 15.5%-18.5%during 2019-2021.In 1H2022,the GPM of property management services slightly increased to 18.9%.W

96、e expect CCNLs GPM in property management services to slightly increase.But the upside should be limited,as we think the way of expansion from third parties will become more dominant.We also project GPM of community VAS to go up,as we think its community VAS is still currently in the early stages an

97、d should enjoy competitive advantage with its large customer base in one city.As for the other business segments,we expect relatively stable GPM.Overall,we forecast CCNLs GPM at 31.9%,31.1%and 30.4%in 2022F-2024F,respectively.The slight decline trend reflects our forecast of faster revenue growth in

98、 basic property management services.Figure 22:Property Management Services Has Lower GPM Compared to Other Segments Figure 23:We Project CCNLs GPM to Stay Above 30%in the Next Three Years 15.5%17.4%18.5%18.9%34.1%33.6%35.9%42.2%46.8%45.9%49.6%47.8%32.8%32.7%26.6%34.1%66.0%60.0%64.5%74.4%0%10%20%30%4

99、0%50%60%70%80%20H2022GPMProperty management servicesCommunity VASVAS to non-property ownersLifestyle servicesCommercial property management and consultation services 32.8%32.4%32.9%31.9%31.1%30.4%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20022F2023F2024FGPM Source:the Company,Guotai Junan Internati

100、onal.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 11 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Better Control in SG&A Expenses We expect CCNLs SG&A expenses ratio to remain at a lo

101、w level.CCNLs total SG&A expenses amounted to RMB121.8 mn in 1H2022,which was largely below the level of the same period last year(down by 29.0%YoY).The SG&A expenses ratio has declined from that of 11.0%in 1H2021 to 7.8%in 1H2022.We believe the improvement in SG&A expenses mainly relied on streamli

102、ning management structure and reducing non-essential administrative expenses.Considering the Companys high GFA concentration in Henan,we believe that economies of scale should help it to maintain a low SG&A expenses ratio level in the next few years.We estimate that SG&A expenses ratio will stay at

103、around 6.7%during 2022F-2024F.Figure 24:Downward Trend in SG&A Expenses for CCNL Figure 25:We Expect Lower But Stable SG&A Expenses Ratio for the Next Three Years 465357260020H20211H2022RMB mnSelling and marketing costsAdmin.expenses 15.8%12.3%8.0%6.7%6.7%

104、6.7%0%4%8%12%16%20%20022F2023F2024FSG&A expenses ratio Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Shareholders Net Profit CAGR of 11%in 2021-2024F Shareholders net profit experienced much stronger growth during 2019-2021,at CAGR of 62.7%.Sh

105、areholders net profit was RMB234 mn,RMB427 mn and RMB427 mn in 2019-2021,respectively.In 1H2022,the Company recorded YoY growth of 11.4%in its shareholders net profit.As we believe that the Companys GFA expansion is on track and GPM is going to remain relatively stable;we believe CCNLs shareholders

106、net profit will resume growth trajectory in 2022F and the years to follow.However,growth is forecasted to be moderate during 2022F-2024F.We forecast shareholders net profit to be RMB667 mn,RMB743 mn and RMB848 mn in 2022F-2024F respectively,representing 11.0%CAGR during 2021-2024F.In addition,corres

107、ponding net profit margin forecasts are 17.8%,17.6%and 17.9%in 2022F-2024F,respectively.Figure 26:We Project CCNLs Shareholders Net Profit to Deliver CAGR of 11.0%During 2021-2024F Figure 27:We Expect CCNLs Net Profit Margin to Stay Relatively Stable in the Next Three Years 23442762066774384882.3%45

108、.2%7.7%11.4%14.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0050060070080090020022F2023F2024FRMB mnShareholders net profit(LHS)Growth YoY(RHS)13.3%16.1%17.2%17.8%17.6%17.9%0%4%8%12%16%20%20022F2023F2024FNet profit margin Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Com

109、pany,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 12 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report High Dividend Payout to Continue We expect CCNLs high dividend payout policy to continue during the next

110、 few years.CCNL has fulfilled its commitment of high dividend payout after listing on the HKEX.In 2021 and 1H2022,the dividend payout ratio reached as high as 80%,which is the leading level in the sector.According to the management,if there is no significant M&A or other investment,the dividend payo

111、ut ratio should continue to stay high.We project the dividend payout ratio to be at 80%in 2022F,and stay at around 50%in 2023F and 2024F.We believe CCNLs commitment to high dividend payout is going to attract more mid-and long-term investors.Valuation,Catalysts and Risks Valuation We use PE multiple

112、 as primary methodology to derive fair value of the Company.Considering the Companys asset-light model,with recurring income and stable growth outlook,we believe PE multiple methodology is currently most appropriate for the valuation of CCNL.We derive our PE valuation of the Company based on a compa

113、rison with its property management peers.We have selected the following seven companies in the peer comparison group,and believe they are basically comparable to CCNL.We have selected Ever Sunshine(01995 HK),KWG Living(03913 HK),S-Enjoy(01755 HK),Shimao Services(00873 HK),and Times Neighborhood(0992

114、8 HK),given its similar scale in GFA under management,or similar market capitalization.We have also selected Binjiang Services(03316 HK)as one peer,considering its high concentration and regional focus(Zhejiang province).In addition,we put Country Garden Services(CGS,06098 HK)in the peer group,consi

115、dering that most of its business layout is in lower-tier cities.Table 2:Peers Scale,Revenue and Profit Comparison Company Ticker GFA under management by mid-2022 Contracted GFA by mid-2022 1H2022 revenue%of revenue from property management 1H2022 GPM 1H2022 net profit (mn sq.m.)(mn sq.m.)(RMB mn)(RM

116、B mn)CCNL 09983 HK 142.1 254.7 1,565 52.4%31.8%290 Ever Sunshine 01995 HK 207.9 291.4 3,163 59.8%25.7%377 KWG Living 03913 HK 214.2 285.8 2,064 78.2%30.1%314 S-Enjoy 01755 HK 172.2 297.0 2,466 56.5%29.0%226 Shimao Services 00873 HK 255.9 333.1 4,266 54.9%26.1%99 Times Neighborhood 09928 HK 108.2 132

117、.2 1,312 69.7%22.7%31 Binjiang Services 03316 HK 35.4 57.4 832 64.4%31.5%190 CGS 06098 HK 843.2 1,608.9 20,055 54.8%26.9%2,694 Source:company data from HKEx,Guotai Junan International.Table 3:Peers Valuation Comparison Company Ticker Market cap PE(x)PB(x)ROE (HK$mn)2022F 2023F 2024F 2022F 2023F 2024

118、F 2022F Ever Sunshine 01995 HK 5,310 5.9 4.6 3.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 16.4 KWG Living 03913 HK 2,228 3.0 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 18.8 S-Enjoy 01755 HK 4,615 6.1 4.4 3.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 26.9 Shimao Services 00873 HK 4,245 6.4 3.8 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.4 Times Neighborhood 09928 HK 572 4.0 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 6.5 Binjiang

119、 Services 03316 HK 5,390 11.6 8.5 6.2 4.2 3.2 2.5 38.3 CGS 06098 HK 42,164 7.1 5.6 4.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 13.1 Weighted average 7.1 5.3 4.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 16.0 Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.Note:closing date at 3 Oct.2022.We set valuation for CCNL at 5.0 x 2023F PE,implying TP at HK$3.20.We beli

120、eve CCNL is able to deliver stable and See the last page for disclaimer Page 13 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report sustainable earnings growth over the next few years(mainly from the GFA expansion and effort to g

121、et repaying from community VAS).Looking at the peers group,the weighted average 2023F PE valuation is at 5.3x,as at 3 Oct.2022 close.We assign a target PE multiple of 5.0 x to our 2023F shareholders net profit estimate for CCNL,implying TP at HK$3.20.The target PE is largely in line with the peers a

122、verage.And we also use DCF methodology for a cross check.For DCF valuation methodology,we derive the Companys fair equity valuation at HK$5,799 mn,implying EV/share at HK$4.60.Our TP of HK$3.20 represents 30%discount to the EV/share.Table 4:CCNLs DCF Key Assumptions and Analysis in Detail WACC Assum

123、ptions DCF Calculation Risk-free rate 3.51%Sum of PV FCFF(RMB mn)1,687 Market Risk Premium 3.32%+PV terminal value(RMB mn)1,477 Beta 1.8 Enterprise value(RMB mn)3,164 Cost of Equity 9.49%+(Net debt)/Cash(RMB mn)2,266 Equity value(RMB mn)5,289 Cost of Debt 7.5%E/(D+E)95.0%Assume HK$/RMB 0.912 WACC 9.

124、3%Equity value(HK$mn)5,799 Shares outstanding(mn)1,268 Long Term Growth Rate 1.0%EV per share(HK$)4.60 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.We like CCNL for its solid growth with more certainty,amid the growth slowdown of the industry.We deem that the Companys regional focus strategy should

125、 provide it more certainty for further solid growth.Furthermore,we believe that CCNL will continue to solidify its scale leadership in Henan,leveraging its high concentration and more potential cooperation with Henan SOEs.Considering its high defensiveness(solid growth outlook and high dividend payo

126、ut),but with more upside potential(from Henan market and upside surprise in community VAS),we initiate coverage of CCNL at Buy with a target price of HK$3.20.Figure 28:CCNLs 12-Month Forward PE bands Figure 29:CCNLs Historical PB bands 0.05.010.015.020.025.0P/EAverage1SD-1SDAverage:8.7x+1SD:13.6x-1S

127、D:3.8x 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22P/BAverage1SD-1SDAverage:1.97x+1SD:2.64x-1SD:1.29x Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.Catalysts Catalysts include:1)faster growth from community VAS b

128、usiness;2)larger increase in property management fee,alongside GDP per capita rise in Henan;and 3)more cooperation with Henan SOEs.Risks 1.Slower-than-expected growth in winning third-party projects.The Company may not successfully obtain sufficient projects under management from third parties,due t

129、o fierce competition.Thus,GFA under management growth may be lower than expected.See the last page for disclaimer Page 14 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report 2.Insolvency issues at CCRE.Despite of support from the

130、 Henan government,CCREs liquidity position is still weak and needs longer time for improvement.We believe any debt default or deteriorated liquidity situation from CCRE may dampen the valuation of CCNL.3.Slower-than-expected growth in community VAS business.CCNLs community VAS business may not grow

131、as fast as expected.Some VAS may not generate enough profit,or even be at loss in the early stages of development.Also community VAS may suffer great impact under pandemic resurgence.4.Significant increase in labor costs that hurt margins.The property management sector is still somewhat labor intens

132、ive.The Company may face upward pressure on staff costs and the fees paid to sub-contractors.Wages may increase significantly and higher than our expectation,which will hurt the margins of the Company.Appendix 1:Company Background Founded in Zhengzhou,CCNL is now the largest property service provide

133、r in central China region.CCNLs history can be traced back to 1994,when it started to provide property management services for properties developed by CCRE in Zhengzhou,Henan.In 2000,CCNL began to provide management services to the properties developed by other developers.In 2016,CCNL expanded its s

134、ervice scope beyond basic services segment,by providing value-added services to customers.In the same year,CCNL started to provide lifestyle services.In 2017,the Company developed commercial property management and consultation services.In 2019,CCNL acquired three tech companies,namely One Family Ne

135、twork,Songyun Beijing Information and Aiou Electronic,and established the Jiangye+(建业+)platform.In 2020,the Company was publicly listed on the HKEX.Through more than 20 years of development,now the Companys property management services has covered all 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan and 7 other

136、provinces(Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei,Anhui,Hubei,Xinjiang and Hainan).By the end of Jun.2022,CCNL served more than 2.4mn property owners and residents in 803 properties.Table 5:CCNLs Development Milestones Year Events 1994-Started to provide property management services for properties developed by CCRE in

137、 Zhengzhou,Henan province.1999-Central China Property Management was established and became the operating company of the property management services.2000-The Company started to manage properties developed by other property developers.2005-Became the first company in Henan to be accredited by the Mi

138、nistry of Construction of China as a property management company with Level One qualification certificate.2010-The Company was awarded“Top 100 Companies with Comprehensive Strength”by China Property Management Institute.2012-Started to provide management services in Kaifeng,Henan,and completed the d

139、istribution of property management services in all 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan.2016-The Company started to provide lifestyle services.2017-The Company started to provide commercial property management and consultation services.2019-The Company acquired One Family Network,Songyun Beijing Info

140、rmation and Aiou Electronic and started to provide value-added services in relation to property management,including the operation of Jianye+(建業+)platform.2020-The Company was listed on HKEx on 15 May 2020.2021-The Companys contracted GFA exceeded 200 mn sq.m.2021-2022-The Company ranked 11th among

141、the Top 100 Property Management Companies in China in both 2021 and 2022,according to China Index Academy.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 15 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK

142、)Company Report Figure 30:CCNLs Shareholder Structure The CompanyMr.Wu Po SumPublic InvestorsControlling shareholders66.8%26.5%100%Gaoling Fund,L.P.6.7%Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Appendix 2:1H2022 Key Results Table 6:CCNLs Key Results in 1H2022 Income statement data(RMB mn)1H2022

143、1H2021 Change Revenue 1,565 1,564 0.1%-Property management services and VAS 1,395 1,286 8.5%-Lifestyle services 106 206(48.7%)-Commercial property management and consultation services 65 72(9.9%)Gross profit 498 502(0.8%)Other income,gains and losses 45 18 142.9%Selling and marketing costs(17)(26)(3

144、2.8%)Administrative expenses(104)(146)(28.3%)Net impairment losses on financial assets(14)(10)39.9%Other losses-net(10)(0)2340.0%Finance costs,net 1 6 (77.8%)Share of results of JVs and associates(0)(0)(73.3%)Profit before tax 398 344 15.6%Tax expense(97)(74)31.2%Minority interests(12)(11)10.2%Share

145、holders net profit 290 260 11.4%Gross profit margin(%)31.8 32.1(0.3)ppt Shareholders profit margin(%)18.5 16.6 1.9 ppt Balance sheet data(RMB mn)1H2022 2021 Change Net debt(cash)(1,947)(2,266)(14.1%)Total equity 3,010 3,057(1.5%)Net gearing(%)Net cash Net cash n.a.Trade and other receivables 2,510 2

146、,222 13.0%Trade and other payables 1,063 1,053 1.0%Operational data 1H2022 2021 Change Contracted GFA(mn sq.m.)254.7 236.8 7.6%GFA under management(mn sq.m)142.1 135.9 4.6%Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 16 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Li

147、fe 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Table 7:Sectors Valuation Comparison Company Stock Code Currency Mkt Cap(HK$m)PE PB ROE(%)D/Y(%)2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F 2022F 2022F HK listed property management companies with major business in

148、 mainland China China Resources Mixc Lifesty 01209 HK HKD 72,355 34.8 29.6 22.9 18.3 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.1 15.0 1.2 Country Garden Services Hold 06098 HK HKD 42,164 8.1 7.1 5.6 4.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 13.1 3.3 Evergrande Property Services 06666 HK HKD 24,865 6.0 4.9 3.7 n.a.1.7 1.3 1.0 n.a.26.6 2.5 China Over

149、seas Property Hold 02669 HK HKD 23,830 24.2 18.7 14.4 11.2 7.9 6.0 4.5 3.5 35.8 1.6 Poly Property Services Co-H 06049 HK HKD 23,600 23.1 19.9 15.7 12.5 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 14.4 1.0 Greentown Service Group Co L 02869 HK HKD 16,802 16.5 17.2 13.5 10.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 11.6 2.9 A-Living Smart City Services

150、03319 HK HKD 9,159 3.2 3.6 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 18.6 6.6 Jinke Smart Services Group-H 09666 HK HKD 7,782 6.1 8.3 6.9 7.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 10.7 3.7 Sunac Services Holdings Ltd 01516 HK HKD 6,297 4.2 42.9 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Binjiang Service Group Co Lt 03316 HK HKD 5,390 13.9 11.6 8.5 6

151、.2 4.7 4.2 3.2 2.5 38.3 n.a.Cifi Ever Sunshine Services 01995 HK HKD 5,310 6.9 5.9 4.6 3.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 16.4 4.8 C&D Property Management Grou 02156 HK HKD 4,944 23.6 19.7 13.4 10.5 4.0 n.a.n.a.n.a.20.2 n.a.S-Enjoy Service Group Co Ltd 01755 HK HKD 4,615 7.1 6.1 4.4 3.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 26.9 4.6 Yu

152、exiu Services Group Ltd 06626 HK HKD 4,520 9.1 8.0 5.9 4.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 13.0 3.8 Shimao Services Holdings Ltd 00873 HK HKD 4,245 3.1 6.4 3.8 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.4 0.8 Sce Intelligent Commercial M 00606 HK HKD 3,424 7.3 10.7 8.2 6.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 12.1 2.1 Excellence Commercial Proper 06989 HK

153、HKD 3,393 5.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.8 n.a.n.a.n.a.22.0 n.a.Jinmao Property Services Co 00816 HK HKD 3,373 14.1 7.6 5.6 3.7 14.1 2.4 1.9 1.4 40.4 3.6 Central China New Life Ltd 09983 HK HKD 3,171 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 21.5 17.1 Dexin Services Group Ltd 02215 HK HKD 2,968 21.1 n.a.n.a.n.a.3.0 n.a.n.

154、a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Kwg Living Group Holdings Lt 03913 HK HKD 2,228 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 18.8 9.4 Hevol Services Group Co Ltd 06093 HK HKD 2,212 21.0 n.a.n.a.n.a.3.4 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Powerlong Commercial Managem 09909 HK HKD 2,205 4.1 3.6 3.0 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 20.2 12.7 Ronshine Service Ho

155、lding Co 02207 HK HKD 2,144 13.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.2.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Sino-Ocean Service Holding L 06677 HK HKD 2,131 4.0 3.6 2.7 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 23.2 10.1 E-Star Commercial Management 06668 HK HKD 1,357 5.8 5.0 3.9 3.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 19.1 9.1 Aoyuan Healthy Life Group Co 03662 HK HKD 1,351 2.9

156、2.0 1.6 n.a.0.9 0.7 0.6 n.a.36.2 16.4 Landsea Green Life Service C 01965 HK HKD 1,220 13.9 n.a.n.a.n.a.2.8 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Huafa Property Services Grou 00982 HK HKD 1,147 6.1 n.a.n.a.n.a.(7.2)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Redsun Services Group Ltd 01971 HK HKD 1,145 7.4 n.a.n.a.n.a.1.2 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a

157、.New Hope Service Holdings Lt 03658 HK HKD 1,042 4.6 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.9 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Yincheng Life Service Co Ltd 01922 HK HKD 935 8.8 n.a.n.a.n.a.3.1 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Colour Life Services Group 01778 HK HKD 922 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.30.8 n.a.Financial Street Property-H 01502 HK HKD

158、 852 5.1 5.3 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 12.1 10.2 Redco Healthy Living Co Ltd 02370 HK HKD 734 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.First Service Holding Ltd 02107 HK HKD 670 15.6 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.9 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Roiserv Lifestyle Services-H 02146 HK HKD 639 1.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.

159、a.Suxin Joyful Life Services C 02152 HK HKD 632 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Dowell Service Group Co Ltd 02352 HK HKD 609 2.9 n.a.n.a.n.a.1.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Times Neighborhood Holdings 09928 HK HKD 572 1.6 4.0 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 6.5 2.7 Beijing Capital Jiaye Proper 02210 HK HKD

160、513 4.0 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.2 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Riverine China Holdings Ltd 01417 HK HKD 486 10.0 n.a.n.a.n.a.1.4 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Clifford Modern Living Holdi 03686 HK HKD 467 4.8 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.7 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Zhenro Services Group Ltd 6958 HK HKD 425 2.0 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.2 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Ka

161、ngqiao Service Group Ltd 2205 HK HKD 413 3.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.4 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Kaisa Prosperity Holdings Lt 2168 HK HKD 390 5.7 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Lushang Life Services Co L-H 2376 HK HKD 323 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Xinyuan Property Management 1895 HK HKD 306 2.0 n

162、.a.n.a.n.a.0.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Xingye Wulian Service Group 9916 HK HKD 304 4.6 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.7 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Jiayuan Services Holdings Lt 1153 HK HKD 294 2.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.4 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Zhong Ao Home Group Ltd 1538 HK HKD 273 2.1 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.2 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Sundy Service Gr

163、oup Co Ltd 9608 HK HKD 259 3.9 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.7 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Ling Yue Services Group Ltd 2165 HK HKD 174 1.7 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Ye Xing Holdings Ltd 1941 HK HKD 93 2.5 n.a.n.a.n.a.0.3 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Simple Average 8.3 10.4 6.7 5.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 19.6 5.7 Weighted Average

164、 17.3 16.4 12.0 10.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.9 18.2 2.8 Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer Page 17 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Financial Statements and Ratios Table_IncomeSt

165、atement Income Statement Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Total revenue 2,654 3,599 3,751 4,216 4,750-Property management and VAS 2,199 3,041 3,281 3,701 4,174-Lifestyle services 366 407 346 387 446-Commercial property management 90 151 124 127 130 Cost of sales(1,794)(2,416)(2,55

166、4)(2,904)(3,306)Gross profit 861 1,183 1,197 1,312 1,444-Selling and marketing expenses(53)(57)(45)(51)(57)-Administrative expenses(273)(230)(206)(232)(261)-Impairment losses on financial assets(15)(101)(75)(48)(8)-Other income/exceptional 24 19 47 38 38 Operating profit 543 814 918 1,019 1,156-Fina

167、nce income/(costs),net 14 12 11 12 16-Share of results of JVs and associates(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)Profit before tax 557 826 928 1,031 1,171 Income tax(116)(173)(222)(248)(283)Profit after tax 441 653 706 783 888 Non-controlling interest(14)(34)(39)(40)(40)Shareholders profit/loss 427 620 667 743 848 Basic

168、EPS(RMB)0.383 0.491 0.526 0.586 0.669 Cash Flow Statement Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Operating activities Profit before income tax 557 826 928 1,031 1,171 Depreciation&amortisation%58 34 44 44 Impairment of trade and other receivables 15 101 0 0 0 Finance costs 1 3 3 3 3 Int

169、erest income(0)(6)(14)(16)(19)Others 27 24 0 0 0 Changes in working capital(243)(724)(130)(104)(120)Net cash from operations 357 283 822 958 1,079 Income tax paid(75)(105)10 10 10 Cash from operating activities 281 178 832 968 1,089 Investing activities Interest received 0 6 14 16 19 Purchase of PPE

170、/intangible assets(24)(32)(63)(40)(38)Acquisitions/disposals of subsidiaries(79)(113)0 0 0 Payment/proceeds from other financial assets(459)385(12)0 0 Other investing cash flow 29 0 0 0 0 Cash from investing activities(533)246(61)(24)(19)Financing activities Dividend paid to owners of the Company(77

171、)(343)(590)(534)(372)Increase in debts 0 0 0 0 0 Capital raised 2,165 6 0 0 0 Interest paid(1)(2)(3)(3)(3)Other financing cash flow(83)(21)0 0 0 Cash from financing activities 2,004(361)(593)(537)(375)Net changes in cash 1,752 64 178 407 696 Cash at beginning of year 585 2,218 2,264 2,442 2,850 Exch

172、ange losses(119)(17)0 0 0 Cash at end of year 2,218 2,264 2,442 2,850 3,545 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Balance Sheet Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F PPE 56 95 99 95 89 Interests in associates&JVs 1 6 5 5 5 Intangible assets 88 274 299 299 299 Prepayments and ot

173、her receivables 67 33 33 33 33 Deferred tax assets 11 43 43 43 43 Other non-current assets 0 0 12 12 12 Total non-current assets 223 452 492 488 482 Inventories 9 18 26 35 45 Contract assets 4 24 25 28 32 Trade and other receivables 1,329 2,222 2,438 2,740 3,088 Restricted cash 1 2 2 2 2 Cash&cash e

174、quivalents 2,218 2,264 2,442 2,850 3,545 Other current assets 467 55 55 55 55 Total current assets 4,027 4,585 4,988 5,710 6,766 Total assets 4,250 5,037 5,481 6,198 7,248 Trade and other payables 937 1,053 1,125 1,265 1,425 Contract liabilities 424 544 567 638 718 Short-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 Cu

175、rrent tax liabilities 96 199 431 689 982 Other current liabilities 11 28 28 28 28 Total current liabilities 1,468 1,825 2,152 2,620 3,154 Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 Contract liabilities 50 87 87 87 87 Deferred tax liabilities 4 27 27 27 27 Other non-current liabilities 10 42 42 42 42 Total non-c

176、urrent liabilities 65 156 156 156 156 Total liabilities 1,533 1,980 2,308 2,776 3,309 Total shareholders equity 2,691 2,954 3,032 3,241 3,718 Minority interest 26 102 141 181 221 Total equity 2,717 3,057 3,173 3,422 3,939 Financial Ratios 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Revenue growth(%)51.3 35.6 4.2

177、12.4 12.7 Gross profit growth(%)49.4 37.5 1.2 9.5 10.1 Operating profit growth(%)67.7 49.9 12.7 11.0 13.4 Shareholders profit growth(%)82.3 45.2 7.7 11.4 14.1 Gross margin(%)32.4 32.9 31.9 31.1 30.4 Operating profit margin(%)20.5 22.6 24.5 24.2 24.3 Shareholders profit margin(%)16.1 17.2 17.8 17.6 1

178、7.9 ROE(%)27.9 21.9 22.3 23.7 24.4 ROA(%)14.9 13.3 12.7 12.7 12.6 Current ratio(x)2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 Net gearing ratio(%)Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Total liabilities/total assets(%)36.1 39.3 42.1 44.8 45.7 Receivable turnover days 144.1 180.0 226.7 224.2 223.9 Payable turnover day

179、s 161.9 150.3 155.7 150.2 148.5 See the last page for disclaimer Page 18 of 18 5 October 2022 Central China New Life 建业新生活(09983 HK)Table_PageHeader Central China New Life(09983 HK)Company Report Company Rating Definition The Benchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon:6 to 18 months Rating Def

180、inition Buy 买入 Relative Performance15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5%to 15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the company

181、 or sector is neutral.Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is-5%to-15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.Sell 卖出 Relative Performance 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the secto

182、r is neutral.Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance-5%;Or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS(1)The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(2)The Analysts and their associates do not have any f

183、inancial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(3)Except for SF REIT(02191 HK),JINSHANG BANK(02558 HK),BANKOFZHENGZHOU(06196 HK),XPENG-W(09868 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1%of the market capitalization of the issuer menti

184、oned in this Research Report.(4)Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.(5)Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issu

185、er mentioned in this Research Report.(6)Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.

186、DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire,purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities(Hong Kong)Limited(Guotai Junan).Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports,including i

187、nvestment banking,investment services,etc.(for example,the placing agent,lead manager,sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily).Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons,dealers and oth

188、er professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies.Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the

189、information and data contained in this Research Report,Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein.This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic cond

190、itions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation,so uncertainty may contain.Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.This Research Report is not direc

191、ted at,or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution,publication,availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.2022 Guotai Junan Securities(Hong Kong)Limited.All Rights Reserved.27/F.,Low Block,Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queens Road Central,Hong Kong.Tel.:(852)2509-9118 Fax:(852)2509-7793 Website:.hk