1、 Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究报告 Research Report 14 Feb 2023 禾赛科技禾赛科技

2、Hesai Tech(HSAI US)首次覆盖：中国激光雷达第一股，合理市值达 51 亿美金 First Listed China LiDAR Company with a Target Market Cap Reaching$5.1B:Initiation Table_Info 首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$22.43 目标价 US$40.30 市值 US$2.82bn 日交易额(3 个月均值)US$107.05mn 发行股票数目 95.50mn 自由流通股(%)-1 年股价最高最低值 US

3、$22.43-US$21.05 注：现价 US$22.43 为 2023 年 2 月 13 日收盘价 资料来源：Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 绝对值（美元）相对 MSCI China Table_Profit (Rmb mn)Dec-21A Dec-22E Dec-23E Dec-24E 营业收入 721 1,088 1,686 2,774(+/-)73%51%55%65%净利润-2456-772-264-115(+/-)n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.全面摊薄 EPS(Rmb)-23.39-6.68-2.10-0.91 毛利率 53.0%38.0%34.8%34.6

4、%净资产收益率-120.9%-27.7%-8.4%-3.4%市盈率 n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.资料来源：公司信息,HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)IPO 融资融资 1.9 亿美元，亿美元，最新最新估估值值 28.2 亿美元。亿美元。2 月 9 日晚，禾赛科技以 19 美元/股的发行价登陆纳斯达克，共计发行 1000 万股美国存托凭证（ADS），募资 1.9 亿美元，成为“中国激光雷达第一股”。公司最新总市值为 28.2 亿美元，超越海外龙头 Luminar（市值 22.3 亿美元，均基于 2 月 13 日收盘价）登顶美股激光雷

5、达公司市值榜首。成立于 2014 年，公司创业早期以激光气体遥测系统起家，2016 年将研发重心转向激光雷达，聚焦无人驾驶和乘用车 ADAS 应用并逐渐向服务机器人领域拓展，产品覆盖短中长距机械式和车规级半固态式激光雷达，截至 22 年底累计交付超 10 万台，自动驾驶激光雷达市场全球份额第一（据沙利文数据，21 年市占率达 60%）。公司已完成 9 轮融资，累计募集资金约 6 亿美元，投资方包括百度、小米、美团、博世、高瓴、光速中国、启明创投、真格基金等海内外知名公司/机构。上市后创始人团队及核心成员持股 25.1%，拥有 76.2%的投票权。ADAS 注入新增长动能，我们预期注入新增长动能

6、，我们预期 23-24 年交付量可达年交付量可达 20/60 万万颗。颗。据 Yole 预测，全球汽车 ADAS 激光雷达市场将在未来 5 年迎来飞速增长，市场规模将从 21 年的 3800 万美元增至 27 年的 20亿美元，21-27 年 CAGR 达 94%，成为激光雷达行业最大的应用领域。公司 90%以上收入来自 LiDAR 硬件产品销售，包括应用于无人驾驶领域的的 Pandar 系列和 QT 系列，应用于乘用车 ADAS的 AT128，以及针对服务机器人市场开发的 XT 系列。随着车规级拳头产品 AT128 于 22 年 7 月开启规模交付，公司 ADAS 收入占比快速攀升，全年收入

7、占比达 22%。据招股书披露，公司目前已斩获 10 家主流主机厂累计数百万台定点，包括理想、赛力斯、长安、小米、上汽飞凡、集度、高合、路特斯等。随着客户新车型陆续量产以及年产 120 万台的上海新制造工厂于年中投入运营，AT128 交付量将更上一个台阶，为公司注入全新增长动能。我们预估 22-24 年公司 ADAS 激光雷达出货量将达6.2/20/60 万台，对应收入 2.4/7.0/16.2 亿元，22-25 年 CAGR 为117%，占整体收入比例为 22%/42%/58%。目标市值目标市值 51 亿美元亿美元，首次覆盖给予，首次覆盖给予“优于大市优于大市”评级。评级。由于激光雷达公司均尚

8、未盈利，市场主要关注营收增速和在手车企订单情况，并采用 PS 法进行估值。我们合理预计公司 22-24 年收入分别 为 10.9/16.9/27.7 亿元，参考美股激光雷达龙头 Luminar 23年 PS=19.1X，我们给予公司 23 年 21.0X PS 估值，以反映公司在自动驾驶领域的显著领先优势以及 ADAS 产品出货量随下游客户重要车型发布进入爆发式增长，对应目标市值 51 亿美元（汇率7.0）和目标价 40.3 美元/股，首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。风险提示：风险提示：1）激光雷达行业渗透不及预期；2）过度竞争；3）激光雷达技术路线出现重大革新的风险。Table_Author

9、张晓飞张晓飞 Xiaofei Zhang 蒲得宇蒲得宇 Jeff Pu,CFA 张幸张幸 Olivia Zhang 955Price ReturnMSCI ChinaFeb-23Volume 14 Feb 2023 2 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 目录目录 盈利预测盈利预测&估值估值.3 激光雷达行业激光雷达行业.6 公司简介公司简介&产品介绍产品介绍.7 公司财务数据公司财务数据.11 hZkZoYvXkUdU9WdYpWcV9P9R7NnPnNmOoNiNoOpNkPpOqN7NnNuNvPpPyRNZrRr

10、O 14 Feb 2023 3 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 盈利预测盈利预测&估值估值 目标市值目标市值 51 亿美元，首次覆盖给予亿美元，首次覆盖给予“优于大市优于大市”评级。评级。由于激光雷达公司均尚未盈利，市场主要关注营收增速和在手车企订单情况，并采用PS法进行估值。我们合理预计公司 22-24 年收入分别 为 10.9/16.9/27.7 亿元，参考美股激光雷达行业历史平均1Y Forward PS=26.3X 以及海外龙头 Luminar 23 年 PS=19.1X，我们给予公司 23 年 21.0X PS 估值，以反映公司

11、营收随 ADAS 放量进入高速增长通道，对应目标市值 51 亿美元（汇率 7.0）和目标价 40.3 美元/股，首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。图图1 美股激光雷达估值表美股激光雷达估值表 公司 市值($mn)营收($mn)净利润(亏损)($mn)1Y Forward PS 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2022 2023 2024 Velodyne 355 95 62 40 60(150)(212)(137)(102)7.5x 5.0 x 2.4x Luminar 2779 14 32 42 117(362)(238)(311)(264)5

12、3.2x 19.1x 6.4x Aeva 417 5 9 7 19(26)(102)(122)(141)50.7x 18.8x 3.1x Ouster 338 n.m.34 46 105 n.m.(94)(118)(106)5.5x 2.4x 1.0 x Innoviz 766(9)5 7 30(99)(159)(123)(129)88.2x 20.5x 4.5x 行业平均估值：行业平均估值：41.0 x 13.2x 3.5x 资料来源：Bloomberg，HTI（数据截至 2023 年 2 月 13 日）图图2 美股激光雷达公司平均美股激光雷达公司平均 1Y Forward PS 估值估值

13、资料来源：Bloomberg，HTI（行业估值选取以下公司简单平均：Velodyne,Luminar,Aeva,Ouster,Innoviz）0070Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-231Y Forward PSAvgAverage=26xLuminar开开始始纳入入统计 14 Feb 2023 4 Table_header1 禾赛科技

14、(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图3 公司收入预测公司收入预测（亿元）（亿元）资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 预测（蓝色字体代表 HTI 预测值，其余为公司披露或公式计算所得）14 Feb 2023 5 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图4 公司收入结构公司收入结构 资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 预测 图图5 公司分季度盈利预测（百万公司分季度盈利预测（百万人民币人民币）1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22E 2022E 2022E 2023E 营业收入 248 211 334 295 1,088 1,686 2,

15、774 营业成本 122 112 210 230 674 1,099 1,814 毛利润 126 99 124 65 414 587 961 营业费用 169 196 229 207 800 1,003 1,190 其他营业收入 1 3 3 9 15 15 15 营业利润(42)(94)(102)(133)(371)(401)(214)其他收入 17 25 31 26 99 137 100 利润总额(25)(70)(71)(107)(272)(264)(115)所得税(0)(0)(0)0 0 0 0 非经常性收益 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 净利润(25)(70)(71)(107)(272)(

16、264)(115)少数股东损益 149 149 149 54 500 0 0 归母净利润(174)(218)(219)(161)(772)(264)(115)资料来源：Wind，HTI 预测 22%42%58%64%71%54%38%33%2%1%4%3%2%2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2022E2023E2024E2025EADAS激光雷达产品机械式激光雷达产品气体检测产品其他产品LiDAR相关服务收入其他服务收入 14 Feb 2023 6 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 激光雷达行业激光雷达行业 我们预计我们预计 23-

17、24 年中国乘用车年中国乘用车 ADAS 激光雷达出货将达激光雷达出货将达 57/126 万颗。万颗。据 Yole 预测，全球汽车 ADAS 激光雷达市场将在未来 5 年迎来飞速增长，市场规模将从 21 年的3800 万美元增至 27 年的 20 亿美元，21-27 年 CAGR 达 94%。伴随着国内新能源车渗透率快速提升以及电动智能化行业强势崛起，我国已成为 ADAS 激光雷达最大应用市场，占全球超 50%。综合我们自下而上的车型统计、自上而下的渗透率分析以及供应链调研，我们预估 22-24 年中国市场乘用车 ADAS 激光雷达出货量分别为 12/57/126 万颗，禾赛、速腾聚创、图达通

18、 CR3 份额分别为 81%/88%/90%，竞争格局维持稳定。图图6 中国乘用车中国乘用车 ADAS 激光雷达出货量激光雷达出货量 2022 2023E 2024E 23-24 年主要增量车型年主要增量车型 禾赛 4.7 20.0 60.0 理想 L9/L8/L7 及其将于 23H2 推出的纯电车型、小米第一款车将于 24 年推出、赛力斯和长安的新车型等 速腾聚创 0.5 15.0 30.0 小鹏 G9 及其 23 年新车型、BYD 将于 23Q2 陆续推出 3-4 款激光雷达车型、极氪将于 23H1 推出激光雷达车型等 华为 1.3 6.1 12.0 长安阿维塔、极狐、哪吒等，以及与华为合

19、作的新车企 Innovusion 4.9 15.5 23.0 蔚来全系 NT2.0 平台车型以及即将推出的 NT3.0 系列 Livox 1.1 0.7 0.7 小鹏 P5 Total 12 57 126 资料来源：各公司官网，HTI 预测 图图7 中国乘用车中国乘用车 ADAS 激光雷达市场竞争格局（按出货量统计）激光雷达市场竞争格局（按出货量统计）资料来源：各公司官网，HTI 预测 38%35%48%4%26%24%10%11%10%39%27%18%9%1%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022占比2023占比2024占比禾赛速腾聚创华为Innov

20、usionLivox 14 Feb 2023 7 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 公司简介公司简介&产品介绍产品介绍 禾赛科技（Hesai Tech）成立于 2014 年，创业早期以激光气体遥测系统起家，2016 将研发重心转向激光雷达，聚焦无人驾驶和乘用车 ADAS 应用并逐渐向服务机器人领域拓展。目前，公司已形成完备的产品线，包括应用于无人驾驶领域（Autonomous Mobility）的 Pandar 系列和 QT 系列，应用于乘用车 ADAS 的 AT128 和 FT120，以及针对服务机器人（Robotics）开发的 XT 系

21、列。公司的主打车规级半固态产品 AT128 面向前装乘用车 ADAS 市场，已斩获 10 家主流主机厂累计数百万台定点，包括理想、赛力斯、长安、小米、上汽飞凡、集度、高合、路特斯等，22 年合计交付约 6.2 万台。随着客户新车型陆续量产以及年产 120 万台的上海新制造工厂于年中投入运营，AT128交付量将更上一个台阶，为公司注入全新增长动能。图图8 公司各产品系列迭代规划图公司各产品系列迭代规划图 资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 14 Feb 2023 8 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图9 公司传感器硬件产品介绍公司传感器硬件产品

22、介绍 类型类型 系列系列 简要介绍简要介绍 技术参数技术参数 机械式机械式 Pandar40M 定位：定位：40 线中距机械式激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2020/1 探测距离：120m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 40 点频：0.72M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 2cm Pandar40P 定位：定位：40 线长距机械式激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2018/4 探测距离：200m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 40 点频：0.72M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 2cm Pandar64 定位：定位：64 线长距机械式激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间

23、：2019/1 探测距离：200m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 40 点频：1.15M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 2cm Pandar128 定位：定位：128 线高分辨率机械式激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2020/9 探测距离：200m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 40 点频：3.46M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 2cm QT64 定位：定位：64 线近距补盲激光雷达 发布时间发布时间：2020/1 探测距离：30m(20%反射率)视场角：360 x 104 点频：0.38M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：3cm QT128 定位：定位：1

24、28 线超广角近距补盲激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2022/1（计划于 23Q1 量产）探测距离：20m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 105 点频：0.86M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：3cm XT32 定位：定位：32 线中距机械式激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2020/10（首次搭载自研收发芯片）探测距离：50m/80m(10%反射率)视场角：360 x 31 点频：0.64M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：1cm 半固态半固态 转镜式转镜式 AT128 定位：定位：128 线车规级半固态激光雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2021/8 探测距离：200m(10%反射率)视场角：

25、120 x 25 分辨率：0.1 x 0.2 点频：1.54M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 2cm 全固态全固态 Flash FT120 定位：定位：车规级纯固态超广角近距补盲雷达 发布时间：发布时间：2022/1（计划于 23 年量产）探测距离：30m(10%反射率)视场角：100 x 75 分辨率：0.6 x 0.6 点频：0.19M pts/s(单回波模式下)精度：Up to 5cm 资料来源：公司官网，HTI（只含目前公司官网公开的产品）14 Feb 2023 9 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图10 已公布的

26、搭载已公布的搭载 AT128 激光雷达重点车型盘点（更多新车型将于激光雷达重点车型盘点（更多新车型将于 23-24 年亮相）年亮相）车型车型 量产时间量产时间 数量数量 部署形式部署形式 理想 L9 22Q3 1 颗：位于车顶（理想 L8/L7 搭载方案一致）高合 HiPhi Z 2022 1 颗：位于车顶 集度汽车 2023 2 颗：车前盖上 路特斯 Eletre 2023 共 4 颗，其中速腾聚创 M1 两颗位于两侧的前轮拱（伸缩式设计），禾赛禾赛 AT128 两颗位于车顶前后方两颗位于车顶前后方（可翻转设计）作主探测器（可翻转设计）作主探测器 资料来源：公司官网，HTI 图图11 公司累

27、计融资约公司累计融资约 6 亿美元亿美元 轮次 时间 金额 参与方 天使轮 2015 年 1 月 数百万美元 PreAngel、远瞻资本、大米创投 A 轮 2017 年 5 月 1.1 亿人民币 高达投资、将门创投、磐谷创投、远瞻资本 B 轮 2018 年 5 月 2.5 亿人民币 高达投资、远瞻资本、磐谷创投、光速中国、百度战略投资部、真格基金、将门创投 战略融资 2019 年 6 月 未披露 博世 战略融资 2019 年 9 月 未披露 苏州启元、交银国际 C 轮 2020 年 1 月 1.73 亿美元 博世、安森美半导体、光速中国、启元投资、启明创投、德同资本 战略融资 2020 年 7

28、 月 未披露 斐君资本 D 轮 2021 年 6 月 超 3 亿美元 小米集团、高瓴创投、美团、中信产业基金、光速中国、启明创投、CPE D+轮 2021 年 11 月 7000 万美元 小米集团 资料来源：公司官网，HTI 14 Feb 2023 10 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图12 管理层背景管理层背景 资料来源：公司官网，HTI 图图13 IPO 前公司股权结构（简图）前公司股权结构（简图）资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 14 Feb 2023 11 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次

29、覆盖优于大市 公司财务数据公司财务数据 图图14 公司收入情况（亿元）公司收入情况（亿元）资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 图图15 中国区销售占比持续提高中国区销售占比持续提高 资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 3.48 4.16 7.21 4.59 7.93 201Q1-Q322Q1-Q343%36%19%2%48%45%4%3%37%49%9%4%北美中国欧洲其他地区201920202021 14 Feb 2023 12 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图16 公司整体毛利率随产品公司整体毛利率随产品 ASP 下降而

30、下滑下降而下滑 资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 图图17 公司历年净亏损（亿元）公司历年净亏损（亿元）资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 70%55%53%69%70%58%70%58%53%201920202021LiDAR相关产品毛利率气体检测产品毛利率整体毛利率-1.20-1.07-2.45-1.75-1.65201Q1-Q322Q1-Q3 14 Feb 2023 13 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 图图18 公司成本结构（各项成本公司成本结构（各项成本/收入）收入）资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 图图19 公司各项费

31、用率统计公司各项费用率统计 资料来源：公司招股书，HTI 风险提示风险提示：1）新能源车渗透不及预期；2）8”投产不及预期。13%16%21%21%28%5%8%9%9%17%5%5%3%4%2%7%14%14%13%9%201Q1-Q322Q1-Q3材料成本制造费用人工成本其他成本0%10%20%30%40%50%60%201Q1-Q322Q1-Q3销售费用管理费用研发费用 14 Feb 2023 14 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 财务报告分析和预测财务报告分析和预测 来源：Bloombe

32、rg，HTI 预测 Key Ratios Dec-20ADec-21ADec-22EDec-23EDec-24EBalance sheet(Rmb mn)Dec-20ADec-21ADec-22EDec-23EDec-24EValuation MeasuresTotal cash and equivalents8962,7922,3173,5433,803Growth*Inventories5832Revenue growth 19%73%51%55%65%Accounts receivable8646Operating profit growth

33、n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.Other current assets46Net profit growth n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.Total current assets1,2093,4933,2034,7895,448Margins Net fixed assets643225838811,182Gross margin57%53%38%35%35%Intangible assets1420263132EBITDA margin(26)%(35)%(27)%(19)%(3)%Others250Operating mar

34、gin(25)%(37)%(34)%(24)%(8)%Total non-current assets1034597311,0381,344Net profit margin(26)%(341)%(71)%(16)%(4)%Total assets1,3123,9523,9345,8286,792ReturnsShort-term borrowings00000ROE(10)%(121)%(28)%(8)%(3)%Accounts payable5577216352580ROA(8)%(93)%(20)%(5)%(2)%Other current liabilities1118159281,1

35、931,541StabilityTotal current liabilities1678921,1441,5452,122Gross debt/equity0.2x0.3x0.4x0.5x0.9xLong-term debt0005001,000Cash Flow Interest Coveragen.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.6xOther liabilities810121517Current Ratio7.3x3.9x2.8x3.1x2.6xTotal non-current liabililties810125151,017Quick Ratio6.4x3.5x2.3x2.7x2.

36、2xTotal liabilities1759031,1572,0603,138Net debt to equityNet cashNet cashNet cashNet cashNet cashPaid-in capital1,1940000Note*:n.m.means related ratio is not meaningful for non-profitable years.Retained earnings(57)(2,491)(3,263)(3,527)(3,642)Capital adjustment05,5416,0417,2957,295Shareholders equi

37、ty1,1373,0502,7783,7683,654Profit&Loss(Rmb mn)Dec-20ADec-21ADec-22EDec-23EDec-24ETotal liabilities&shareholders equity1,3123,9523,9345,8286,792Total revenue4167211,0881,6862,774Cost of sales1773396741,0991,814Cash Flow(Rmb mn)Dec-20ADec-21ADec-22EDec-23EDec-24EGross profit 239382414587961Net profit(

38、107)(245)(272)(264)(115)Total operating expenses34,175Depreciation&amortisationOperating profit(102)(265)(371)(401)(214)Chang in working capital(297)(89)6238174Net other Non-op.income(Loss)(27)(13)2800Others3377657277Net interest income(expense)2Cash flow from operat

39、ions(352)(228)(92)(71)262Pre-tax profit(107)(246)(272)(264)(115)Cash flow from investing activities179(1,980)717(94)(803)Extraordinaries,net of taxes00000Cash flow from financing activities3172,401(63)1,685425Taxation&Minority interest0(2,210)(500)00Total cash generated 1441935611,521(116)Net income

40、 to ord equity(107)(2,456)(772)(264)(115)Free cash flow(418)(448)(397)(442)(149)14 Feb 2023 15 Table_header1 禾赛科技(HSAI US)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 APPENDIX 1 Summary Hesai Tech raised$190mn in its IPO,with its newest market cap reaching$2.82bn.On Feb 9,Hesai Technology listed on Nasdaq at an issuance price

41、of US$19 per share,issued a total of 10mn American Depositary Receipts(ADS),and raised US$190mn,becoming the first Chinese LiDAR stock.The companys latest total market value reached$2.82bn,surpassing the overseas leader Luminar(market value of$2.23bn,both based on the closing price on February 13)an

42、d topping the market value list of US stock lidar companies.Founded in 2014,the company started with a laser gas telemetry system in the early days of its business.In 2016,it shifted its business focus to LiDAR,focusing on autonomous driving and ADAS applications and gradually expanding to the field

43、 of robotics.Its product offering covers short,medium,and long-distance mechanical LiDAR and auto-grade semi-solid-state LiDAR,with a cumulative delivery of more than 100K units by the end of 2022,with a market share of 60%in AD market.ADAS to become the next growth driver for Hesai;we expect its ov

44、erall ADAS LiDAR shipments in China to reach 200K/600K units in 2023/2024,respectively.According to Yoles prediction,the global automotive ADAS LiDAR market will usher in rapid growth in the next five years,and the market size will increase from US$38mn in 2021 to US$2bn in 2027,with a CAGR of 94%,b

45、ecoming the largest application field in the radar industry.More than 90%of the companys revenue comes from the sales of LiDAR hardware products,including the Pandar series and QT series used in the autonomous driving,the AT128 used in passenger car ADAS,and the XT series developed for the service r

46、obot market.With the large-scale delivery of AT128,the leading auto-grade product,in July 22,the proportion of the companys ADAS revenue has risen rapidly,accounting for 22%of the annual revenue.Target market cap is$5.1bn,initiate with an“Outperform”rating.Since none of LiDAR companies is yet profit

47、able,the market mainly focuses on revenue growth and orders from existing car OEMs and uses the PS ratio for relative valuation.We reasonably predict that the companys revenue in 22-24 will be 1.09/1.69/2.77bn,respectively.Considering Luminars 2023 PS=19.1X,we assign the company a 21.0X 2023 PS rati

48、o to reflect:1)the companys leading position in the field of autonomous driving and,2)the shipment of ADAS products has entered an explosive trend with the release of important car models of downstream customers,corresponding to a target market cap of US$5.1bn(USD/RMB exchange rate:7.0)and a TP of U

49、S$40.3 per share.Risks:1)Underperformance of Auto LiDAR business;2)Over-competition;3)Major technology change in LiDAR sector.16 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan

50、K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Privat

51、e Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTI

52、RL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，张晓飞，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Xiaofei Zhang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or

53、all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest i

54、n the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我，蒲得宇，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Jeff Pu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my pers

55、onal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have

56、 no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我，张幸，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Olivia Zhang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research repor

57、t accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including

58、members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates

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60、does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了002594.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,

61、Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 002594.CH within the past 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects

62、of 002594.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.002594.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。002594.CH is/was an investment bank clients of Haitong cu

63、rrently or within the past 12 months.交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信交银理财1号单一资金信托,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信聚通稳健1号集合资金信托计划,交银国际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托,交银国际证券有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托 及 600104.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信交银理财1号单一资金信托,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信聚通稳健1号集合资金信托计划,交银国

64、际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托,交银国际证券有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托 and 600104.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.江西一诺新材料有限公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非证券业务服务。江西一诺新材料有限公司 is/was a

65、 client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.海通在过去12个月中获得对002594.CH提供投资银行服务的报酬。Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 002594.CH.17 海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从002594.CH获得投资银行服务报酬。Ha

66、itong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 002594.CH.海通在过去的12个月中从交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信交银理财1号单一资金信托,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信聚通稳健1号集合资金信托计划,交银国际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托,交银国际证券有限公司,上海汽车集团金控管理有限公司 及 江西一诺新材料有限公司获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haiton

67、g has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 交银国际信托有限公司,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信交银理财1号单一资金信托,交银国际信托有限公司交银国信聚通稳健1号集合资金信托计划,交银国际信托有限公司武汉农商行组合投资单一资金信托,交银国际证券有限公司,上海汽车集团金控管理有限公司 and 江西一诺新材料有限公司.海通担任002594.CH有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market m

68、aker or liquidity provider in the securities of 002594.CH.评级定义评级定义（从（从2020年年7月月1日开始执行）日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指

69、数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system u

70、sing Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts

71、views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circum

72、stances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18

73、months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be

74、 below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 18 截至截至2022年年12月月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布日

75、海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.2%1.5%投资银行客户*5.2%7.3%8.3%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化

76、不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Dec 31,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.

77、4%9.2%1.5%IB clients*5.2%7.3%8.3%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating fal

78、ls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as in

79、dicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks

80、 total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究：海通

81、国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest p

82、rices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海

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84、 research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股（Q100）指数指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计

85、量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based scre

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101、cation)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed according to other agreements.If there is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements,this disclaimer shall be applied.重要免责声明：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司

102、海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”

103、）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为印度交易所）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗

104、示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适

105、用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收

106、件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究上海品茶上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营 20 证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Internation

107、al Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securities)for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance o

108、f Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports on Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian

109、 company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively r

110、eferred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securit

111、ies Company Limited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty,express or imp

112、lied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received,as to their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice.This research

113、 report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not,and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in this resea

114、rch report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors home currency,a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certai

115、n transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,s

116、uch as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employee

117、s or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.HTISG and our affiliates,officers,directors,and employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to ti

118、me have long or short positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies

119、 within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions

120、,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for further information on HTIs organizational and administrative arrangements set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.

121、S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appearances;and trading

122、 securities by a research analyst.分发和地区通知：分发和地区通知：除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项：香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成证券及期货条例（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期

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124、tutional Investors”）。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时，Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.（“HTI USA”）将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者，希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易，只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173，电话（212）351-6050。HTI USA是在美国于U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission（“SEC”）注册的经纪商，也是

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