1、ResearchReturning to Rationality,Moving Forward SteadilyChina Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewQuarterly Report Q4 2022ChinaJanuary 202301China Macroeconomic Overview02Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overvi

2、ewQ1Q2Q3Q4Overall Performance of Chinas Economy Remained Stable in 202203Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaChinas GDP,2019-2022(Billion RMB)+2.9%+3.0%YoY actual growth in Q4 2022

3、 was 2.9%,QoQ actual growth in Q4 2022 was 0.0%YoY actual growth in 2022 was 3.0%,lower than that in 2021Consumption under Pressure Due to COVID Surge,yet Its Importance in Chinas Economic Growth RemainsComponents of Chinas GDP Growth,2010-2022+1.0pp.32.8%Final consumption expenditure pulled up Chin

4、as overall economic growth by 1.0 percentage points in 2022,lower than that in 2021Final Consumption Expenditures Contribution to Chinas GDP in 2022Gross Capital Formation(%)Final Consumption Expenditure(%)Net Export of Goods and Services(%)Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China04Returning to

5、 Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewChinas Consumer Market Seen Contraction in 2022 Due to COVID SurgeRetail Sales of Social Consumer Goods(Trillion RMB)&YoY Growth,2019-2022-2.7%-0.2%YoY growth in Q4 2022 was-2.7%,lower than that in Q3Y

6、oY growth in 2022 was-0.2%,lower than that in 2021Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods(Trillion RMB)YoY Growth Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods20022YoY GrowthSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China05Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logi

7、stics Real Estate Market OverviewPer Capita Consumption Expenditure Dropped,yet Residents Income Remained IncreasingQuarterly Per Capita Disposable Income and Per Capita Consumption Expenditure in China and Their YoY Growth Rates,2019 2022-0.2%+2.9%YoY real growth of per capita consumption expenditu

8、re in 2022,lower than that in 2021YoY real growth of per capita disposable income in 2022,lower than that in 2021Per Capita Disposable Income/Per Capita Consumption Expenditure20022YoY Nominal Growth RatePer Capita Disposable Income(RMB)Per Capita Disposable Income YoY Growth Rate Per Cap

9、ita Consumption Expenditure(RMB)Per Capita Consumption Expenditure YoY GrowthSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China06Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewE-commerce Expansion Continued in 2022,Driving Logistics DemandOn

10、line Sales of Physical Goods and Its Share in Total Retail Sales,2014-2022+6.2%+2.7pp.Share of online sales in total retail sales in 2022 up by 2.7 pared with 2021 YoY growth of online sales of physical goods in 2022,lower than that in 2021Online Sales of Physical GoodsShare of Total Retail SalesOnl

11、ine Sales of Physical Goods(Trillion RMB)Share of Total Retail SalesSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China07Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSecondary Sector Grew Steadily in 2022,Pulling up Chinas Economic Growth b

12、y 1.4 pp.Value Added of Chinas Secondary Sector(Trillion RMB),2019-2022+3.4%+3.8%YoY growth in Q4 2022 was 3.4%,lower than that in Q3YoY growth in 2022 was 3.8%,lower than that in 2021Q1Q2Q3Q4Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China08Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bo

13、nded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewManufacturings Share in Chinas GDP Continued to Rise,with New Drivers Growing at Rapid PaceShare of Manufacturing Value Added in Chinas GDP,2010-2022+7.4%+97.5%YoY growth of hi-tech manufacturing sector,2022YoY growth of new energy vehicle production

14、 outputSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China09Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewInternational Trade Grew Rapidly in 2022,with Trade Surplus Further Widened Chinas Goods Import&Export Volume(Trillion RMB)andYoY Growt

15、h,2016-20225.9 Trillion RMB+10.5%Chinas trade surplus,2022YoY growth of Chinas export volume,2022Export Volume(Trillion RMB)Import Volume(Trillion RMB)YoY Growth of Import&Export VolumeSource:National Bureau of Statistics of China10Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Gr

16、ade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewCity ClusterCityCity TypePopulation（2021,Million)Population Change,2020-2021Retail Sales (2022,Billion RMB)Retail Sales Change,2021-2022The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)City ClusterShanghaiTier 1 City24.89+0.04%1,644.2-9.06%JiaxingSatellite City5.52+1.94%234.3+2

17、.98%HangzhouTier 2 City12.20+2.00%729.4+8.16%HefeiTier 2 City9.47+1.01%502.2NingboTier 2 City9.54+1.32%489.7+5.33%SuzhouTier 2 City12.75-0.01%910.2+0.78%NanjingTier 2 City9.42+1.11%783.2-0.85%WuxiTier 2 City7.48+0.21%333.8+0.95%ShaoxingTier 2 City5.34+0.87%258.6+4.40%NantongTier 2 City7.73+0.06%395.

18、7+0.54%The Pearl River Delta(PRD)City ClusterShenzhenTier 1 City17.68+0.27%970.8+2.21%GuangzhouTier 1 City18.81+0.72%1,029.8+1.73%FoshanSatellite City9.61+0.99%359.4+1.04%HuizhouSatellite City6.07+0.15%204.1+3.11%DongguanSatellite City10.54+0.51%425.5+0.37%JiangmenTier 3 City4.84+0.65%130.9+2.42%Zha

19、oqingTier 3 City4.13+0.31%111.7-3.77%ZhongshanTier 2 City4.47+0.81%159.3+4.14%The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(JJJ)City ClusterBeijingTier 1 City-0.02%1,379.4-7.22%LangfangSatellite City5.54+0.95%141.0+0.50%TianjinTier 2 City13.73-0.98%357.3-5.2%BaodingTier 2 City9.20-0.51%172.2+1.3%The Chengdu-Chongqing(C

20、hengyu)City ClusterChengduTier 2 City21.19+1.17%909.7-1.68%ChongqingTier 2 City32.12+0.11%1,390.0-0.30%MeishanTier 3 City+0.10%64.0+1.6%21.89Overall Population Attractiveness of YRD&PRD Grew Continuously,while JJJ Facing Population OutflowSource:ZhenLiang Research Institute based on publicly availab

21、le information11Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview02Chinas LogisticsMarket12Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward SteadilyChina Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewStock as of Q4 2021New Supply Added i

22、n 2022Note:1)The range of each city cluster when calculating economic data is as follows:YRD includes Shanghai municipality and Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui provinces;JJJ includes Beijing&Tianjin municipality and Hebei province;PRD includes Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuhai,Foshan,Dongguan,Huizhou,Zhongshan,Jiang

23、men,Zhaoqing cities in Guangdong province;Chengyu includes Chongqing municipality and Sichuan province.2)The range of each city cluster when calculating logistics market data:YRD includes Shanghai municipality,Nanjing,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Wuxi,Nantong cities of Jiangsu

24、province,Hangzhou,Ningbo,Jiaxing(incl.Pinghu),Shaoxing cities of Zhejiang province,Hefei city of Anhui province;JJJ includes Beijing and Tianjin municipalities and Langfang,Baoding cities in Hebei province;PRD includes Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Foshan,Dongguan,Huizhou,Zhongshan,Jiangmen,Zhaoqing cities of

25、Guangdong province;Chengyu includes Chongqing municipality and Chengdu,Meishan cities in Sichuan province.Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Stock in Key City Clusters(Million sqm.)13Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenL

26、iang Research InstituteAverage Rent of Key City Clusters,2021 Q4-2022 Q4(RMB/sqm/day)Average Occupancy Rates of Key City Clusters,2021 Q4-2022 Q42021 Q42022 Q4YRDs logistics market showed strong resilience in the face of greater supply pressure,with rent remained stable and occupancy rate fell sligh

27、tly by 3 percentage points throughout the year.PRDs average rent remained relatively stable in 2022,yet its occupancy was affected by the delivery of new supply and slowing demand in some regions,with occupancy rates declined to varying degrees,but the overall occupancy remained on a high level of a

28、round 90%.JJJ faced greater supply pressure,with both rent and occupancy rate under pressure.Chengyus leasing performance was relatively stable,with rent fell slightly by 2.3%while occupancy rate saw an increase of 2.6 percentage points.14Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bo

29、nded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewComprehensive Rental Performance by City Cluster,Q4 2022Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)Average Occupancy RateExceptional Market PerformanceGood Market PerformanceFair Market PerformanceKey Cities in Other City ClustersJJJ CitiesYRD CitiesPRD Cities*Note:Su

30、zhou data are exclusive of Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang.15Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research InstituteQ3 Average0.97Q4 Average0.95Q3 Average1.67Q4 Average1.64Q3 Average1.26Q4 Average1.25Tie

31、r-1 CitiesTier-2 CitiesSatellite MarketsRent in Most Cities Dropped in 2022 Q4,while Overall Decline in Satellite Cities is Relatively Slighter16Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research InstituteOccupancy

32、 in Most Cities Dropped in 2022 Q4,with More Significant Declines in Tier-1 and Satellite CitiesTier-1 CitiesTier-2 CitiesSatellite MarketsQ3 Average91.0%Q4Average88.9%Q3 Average83.9%Q4 Average82.1%Q3 Average86.0%Q4 Average80.0%17Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grad

33、e A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research InstituteSlowdown in Logistics Investment DecisionsTransaction Volume of Chinas En-bloc Logistics Transactions(Billion RMB)31 Billion RMB-41.9%Transaction volume in 2022 totalled RMB 31 bn,lowest in the past 3 years and also stood be

34、low 5-year average.Down by 41.9%compared with 20212018-2022 Average18Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research InstituteLogistics Market Key Transactions in 2022Chinas logistics market was active in H1 202

35、2 in terms of large transactions,yet logistics transaction has seen a significant slowdown in H2 as investors decision-making gradually slowed down and the decision-making cycle has been remarkably lengthened.As a result,only one key logistics transaction was recorded in Q3 while none was recorded i

36、n Q4.With the anticipated economic recovery resulting from the relaxation of COVID control measures and the gradual clarification of various uncertainties,investors decision-making processes are bound to accelerate in 2023.However,as the differentiation between different logistics markets in China d

37、eepens,choosing the right assets that are in accord with their investment strategies will become an important step for investors before making an investment decision.DateNameLocationNo.of AssetsGFA(sqm)Volume of Transaction(RMB mn)SellerBuyerCap RateJuly 2022ESR GIC Prime Logistics and Industrial Po

38、rtfolioDongguan,Wuhan,Changsha,Chongqing,Nanjing,Wuxi,Shenyang,Tianjin9873,000Balance Sheet4,900ESRGIC/ESR JV5.30%-5.80%June 2022SC Capital Morgan Stanley PortfolioNantong,Taicang,Jiaxing3210,770850SC CapitalMorgan Stanley5.30%May 2022Goodman NWS Logistics PortfolioChengdu,Wuhan6531,0002,290GoodmanN

39、WS5.50%-6.00%May 2022Dongbai Link Logistics PortfolioChangshu,Jiaxing3192,144947DongbaiGroupLink5.10%-5.50%March 20222 Logistics Parks of China South CityHefei,Zhengzhou2405,7001,710China South CityShenzhen IntlN/AFebruary 2022DLJ Greater Shanghai Logistics PortfolioShanghai,Suzhou,Kunshan,Taicang,H

40、angzhou11558,3344,500DLJGIC/ESR JV4.50%February 2022Logistics Asset on 3130 S.Lianhua Rd.,Minhang,ShanghaiShanghai1131,2151,382ElandPing An/DNE5.00%19Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research Institute bas

41、ed on publicly available information2022 China Grade A Logistics Real EstateCapitalization Rate Reference(I)CityCity Type2021 Q42022 Q4YoY ChangeGuangzhouTier 1 City4.63%4.67%+0.04pp.BeijingTier 1 City4.63%4.72%+0.09pp.ShanghaiTier 1 City4.66%4.75%+0.09pp.ShenzhenTier 1 City4.55%4.86%+0.31pp.Kunshan

42、Satellite Cityn/a4.90%n/aDongguanSatellite City5.04%4.92%-0.12pp.TaicangSatellite Cityn/a4.99%n/aFoshanSatellite City5.09%5.09%0.00pp.LangfangSatellite City5.24%5.20%-0.04pp.JiaxingSatellite City5.20%5.23%+0.03pp.ChangshuSatellite Cityn/a5.24%n/aHuizhouSatellite City5.31%5.29%-0.02pp.ZhangjiagangSat

43、ellite Cityn/a5.36%n/aSuzhouTier 2 City5.04%5.07%+0.03pp.WuxiTier 2 City5.54%5.29%-0.25pp.TianjinTier 2 City5.24%5.34%+0.10pp.ZhongshanTier 2 City5.32%5.44%+0.12pp.HangzhouTier 2 City5.51%5.46%-0.05pp.Note:The scope of the study includes 1,556 grade A logistics properties across China.Cap rates are

44、calculated with self-developed algorithm by Zhenliang Research Institute,with the consideration of the NOI,market values and past rental growth of logistics projects of mainstream developers served by JLLs Valuation Advisory Services,together with Chinas 10-year treasury bond interest rate,and the r

45、isk premium of each logistics market.Zhenliang Platform()reserves the right of final interpretation.20Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research Institute based on publicly available information2022 China G

46、rade A Logistics Real EstateCapitalization Rate Reference(II)CityCity Type2021 Q42022 Q4YoY ChangeFuzhouTier 2 City5.49%5.49%+0.00pp.ChengduTier 2 City5.44%5.51%+0.07pp.NingboTier 2 City5.52%5.51%-0.01pp.XiamenTier 2 City5.49%5.53%+0.04pp.NanjingTier 2 City5.52%5.54%+0.02pp.NanningTier 2 City5.49%5.

47、56%+0.07pp.NantongTier 2 City5.54%5.61%+0.07pp.HefeiTier 2 City5.66%5.61%-0.05pp.ShaoxingTier 2 City5.49%5.61%+0.12pp.ChangshaTier 2 City5.70%5.63%-0.07pp.QingdaoTier 2 City5.70%5.66%-0.04pp.ZhengzhouTier 2 City5.72%5.67%-0.05pp.JinanTier 2 City5.76%5.69%-0.07pp.XianTier 2 City5.74%5.70%-0.04pp.Wuha

48、nTier 2 City5.69%5.73%+0.04pp.NanchangTier 2 City5.74%5.74%0.00pp.KunmingTier 2 City5.74%5.76%+0.02pp.QuanzhouTier 2 City5.74%5.79%+0.05pp.Note:The scope of the study includes 1,556 grade A logistics properties across China.Cap rates are calculated with self-developed algorithm by Zhenliang Research

49、 Institute,with the consideration of the NOI,market values and past rental growth of logistics projects of mainstream developers served by JLLs Valuation Advisory Services,together with Chinas 10-year treasury bond interest rate,and the risk premium of each logistics market.Zhenliang Platform()reser

50、ves the right of final interpretation.21Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research Institute based on publicly available information2022 China Grade A Logistics Real EstateCapitalization Rate Reference(III)

51、CityCity Type2021 Q42022 Q4YoY ChangeChongqingTier 2 City5.74%5.80%+0.06pp.BaodingTier 2 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.GuiyangTier 2 City5.87%5.86%-0.01pp.HarbinTier 2 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.ChangchunTier 2 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.ShenyangTier 2 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.DalianTier 2 City5.74%5.90%+0.16pp.Zhaoqing

52、Tier 3 City5.62%5.53%-0.09pp.XiaoganTier 3 City5.74%5.61%-0.13pp.XianyangTier 3 City5.68%5.75%+0.07pp.JiangmenTier 3 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.MeishanTier 3 City5.74%5.86%+0.12pp.EzhouTier 3 City5.80%5.91%+0.11pp.Note:The scope of the study includes 1,556 grade A logistics properties across China.Cap ra

53、tes are calculated with self-developed algorithm by Zhenliang Research Institute,with the consideration of the NOI,market values and past rental growth of logistics projects of mainstream developers served by JLLs Valuation Advisory Services,together with Chinas 10-year treasury bond interest rate,a

54、nd the risk premium of each logistics market.Zhenliang Platform()reserves the right of final interpretation.22Returning to Rationality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:ZhenLiang Research Institute based on publicly available information03Su

55、mmary&Outlook1 MacroChinas economy achieved positive growth in 2022 despite various pressures,with significant growth in international trade and indicators such as high-tech manufacturing,and has seen further expansion of trade surplus.Chinas ever-expanding and upgrading manufacturing sector has rob

56、ustly supported economic growth in the face of the COVID surge.In 2023,Chinas economy is expected to see a new picture.The real economy will further recover,consumer confidence is expected to steadily improve,and the real estate market will also see a recovery.3 Leasing PerformanceMost cities face r

57、ent and occupancy declines in 2022 Q4.Certain submarkets in some satellite cities and Tier 1 cities are under pressure due to new supply,leading to pressures on rents and occupancy.Some cities and submarkets are under pressure from slowing demand growth.Consumption recovery to further drive the dema

58、nd for logistics real estate in 2023.However,vacancy in some cities will remain high due to large amount of new supply.Differentiation between different markets in Chinas logistics real estate sector is expected to further intensify.2PolicyIntroduction of the first national logistics 5-year plan the

59、 14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Logistics Development means that the logistics industry has gained attention from Chinas top authorities,boosting confidence for the further growth of logistics sector.The National Development and Reform Commission released plans on the construction of national backbo

60、ne cold chain logistics base in 2022,signifying the acceleration of Chinas cold chain logistics.4InvestmentLogistics real estate has shown strong resilience despite COVID surges,thus gained increasing popularity among investors,resulting in a highly active logistics investment market over the past 3

61、 years.In 2022 Q4,supply pressure and slightly sluggish demand in some regions slowed investor decisions and lengthened their decision-making cycle.No major logistics transaction has been recorded in Q4.As the COVID restrictions to be gradually lifted in 2023,consumption recovery will drive demand g

62、rowth,investors decision-making process will also speed up.Liveliness of Chinas logistics investment market is expected to increase.As Chinas logistics real estate market continues to differentiate,choosing the right asset will become an increasingly important issue for investors.23Returning to Rati

63、onality,Moving Forward Steadily China Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewScan&subscribe to stay tunedAbout ZhenliangDeveloped by JLL Valuation team,ZhenLiang Platform based on more than 30 years of real estate valuation practice and over 300 valuers,helping real estate professio

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65、nology and innovative ability.Disclaimer:All materials presented in this report,unless specifically indicated otherwise,is under copyright and proprietary to Shanghai Jialiang Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.(Shanghai Jialiang).Information contained herein,including projections,has been obtained from mat

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