1、IN PARTNERSHIP WITHJUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICADECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR 06CHAPTER2 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAACKNOWLEDGEMENTSStrategic Partnerships for the Implementation of the Paris Agreement(SPIPA):Climate cha

2、nge is a global threat that requires a decisive and confident response from all communities,particularly from major economies that represent roughly 80%of global greenhouse gas emissions.The 2015 Paris Agreement,complemented by the 2018 Katowice climate package,provides the essential framework gover

3、ning global action to deal with climate change and steering the worldwide transition towards climate-neutrality and climate-resilience.In this context,policy practitioners are keen to use various platforms to learn from one another and accelerate the dissemination of good practices.To improve a geop

4、olitical landscape that has become more turbulent,the EU set out in 2017 to redouble its climate diplomacy efforts and policy collaborations with major emitters outside Europe in order to promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement.This resulted in the establishment of the SPIPA programme in o

5、rder to mobilise European know-how to support peer-to-peer learning.The programme builds upon and complements climate policy dialogues and cooperation with major EU economies.This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Unions Partnership Instrument and the German Federal

6、 Ministry for the Environment,Nature Conservation,and Nuclear Safety(BMU)in the context of the International Climate Initiative(IKI).The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of National Business Initiative(NBI)and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funders.of the Federal

7、 Republic of GermanySupported by:RESEARCH SUPPORTED BYWe Mean Business:This is a global coalition of nonprofit organisations working with the worlds most influential businesses to take action on climate change.The coalition brings together seven organisations:BSR,CDP,Ceres,The B Team,The Climate Gro

8、up,The Prince of Waless Corporate Leaders Group and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.Together we catalyze business action to drive policy ambition and accelerate the transition to a zero-carbon economy.NBI has been a regional network partner to WMB since the beginning of 2015.U

9、K PACT South Africa:UK PACT has partnered with South Africa to support action on Just Transition pathways and a low-carbon economic recovery.As the third largest economy in Africa,South Africa plays a critical role in economic and policy priority setting at a continental level and across the Souther

10、n Africa region.South Africas long-standing participation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)processes creates a solid platform for an impactful and transformational UK PACT partnership.Moreover,UK PACT seeks to support climate action that will contribute to the real

11、isation of other development imperatives in South Africa,such as job creation and poverty alleviation.Priority areas of focus for UK PACT in South Africa are aligned with key national priorities in the just energy transition,renewable energy,energy efficiency,sustainable transport,and sustainable fi

12、nance.UK PACT projects can contribute to addressing industry-wide constraints,common metropolitan challenges,and bringing city,provincial and national level public and private partners together to address climatepriorities.Confederation of Danish Industry:DI is Denmarks largest,most representative a

13、nd most influential business and employers organisation,covering manufacturing as well as service industries.DI works with employer and business membership organisations all over the world to reach the UNs Sustainable Development Goals and make their vision of a world with economic opportunities for

14、 everyone come alive.3CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORPARTNERSNational Business Initiative At the National Business Initiative(NBI),we believe in collective action and collaboration to effect change;building a South African society and economy that is inclusive,resilient,su

15、stainable and based on trust.We are an independent business movement of around 80 of South Africas largest companies and institutions committed to the vision of a thriving country and society.The NBI works with our members to enhance their capacity for change,leverage the power of our collective,bui

16、ld trust in the role of business in society,enable action by business to transform society and create investment opportunities.Business Unity South Africa BUSA,formed in October 2003,is the first representative and unified organisation for business in South Africa.Through its extensive membership ba

17、se,BUSA represents the private sector,being the largest federation of business organisations in terms of GDP and employment contribution.BUSAs work is largely focused around influencing policy and legislative development for an enabling environment for inclusive growth and employment.Boston Consulti

18、ng Group BCG partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG,the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963,today works closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefitting

19、all stakeholders empowering organisations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Their diverse global teams are passionate about unlocking potential and making change happen,and delivering integrated solutions.4 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY F

20、OR SOUTH AFRICATERMINOLOGIES AFOLU Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land UseBEV Battery Electric Vehiclebbl Barrelbn BillionBRT Bus Rapid TransitBUSA Business Unity South Africac CentCAPEX Capital ExpenditureCCUS Carbon Capture Utilisation and StorageCNG Compressed Natural GasCO2Carbon dioxideCO2e Car

21、bon dioxide equivalentCOP27 UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties#27DACCS Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storagee-ammonia Ammonia(NH3)made with green hydrogene-fuels Fuels made with green hydrogene-methanol Methanol(CH3OH)made with green hydrogenEIA United States Energy Information Administrati

22、onEJ Exajoule(1018 J)EU European UnionEV Electric VehicleFCEV Fuel Cell Electric VehicleGDP Gross Domestic ProductGHGI Greenhouse Gas National InventoryGJ Gigajoule(109 J)Green hydrogenHydrogen produced from renewable energy and waterGt Gigatonne(109 t)GW Gigawatt(109 W)GWh Gigawatt hourH2HydrogenHD

23、V Heavy Duty VehicleICE Internal Combustion EngineIEA International Energy AgencyIPP Independent Power ProducerIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeJ Joulek ThousandkW kilowatt(103 W)kWh kilowatt hourLNG Liquified Natural GasMBT Minibus taximn MillionMt Megatonne(106 t)MW Megawatt(106 W)NDC

24、 Nationally Determined ContributionNERSA National Energy Regulator of South AfricaNPC National Planning CommissionParc All registered vehicles within a defined geographic regionPJ Petajoule(1015 J)PJ/a Petajoules per annumpkm Passenger kilometre PV Photovoltaic solar energyRE Renewable EnergyREIPPPP

25、 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement ProgrammeRTS IEA Reference Technology ScenarioSAF Sustainable Aviation FuelScope 1 emissionsAll direct emissions from activities of an organisation Scope 2 emissionsIndirect emissions from electricity purchased and used by the organisationScop

26、e 3 emissionsAll indirect emissions(not included in Scope 2)that occur in the value chain of the organisationSDS IEA Sustainable Development ScenarioSynfuels Synthetic fuelsTCO Total cost of ownershiptkm Tonne kilometre(Freight)TW Terrawatt(1012 W)TWh Terawatt hourUNFCCC United Nations Framework Con

27、vention on Climate ChangeWACC Weighted Average Cost of CapitalxHEV Hydrid electric vehicle(both electric and ICE)ZEV Zero Emissions Vehicle,including BEV and FCEV5CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORCONTENTSAcknowledgements 2Terminologies 4Overview of CEO Champions 71.FOREWORD

28、102.INTRODUCTION 122.1 The purpose of this report 122.2 The case for change 122.3 Objectives and approach of the overall study 162.4 Approach to this transport report 203.KEY FINDINGS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ANALYSIS 213.1 Towards a net-zero transport sector in South Africa 223.2 How to enable the d

29、ecarbonisation of South Africas transportsector 494.OUTLOOK 54Appendix 56JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA SERIES INCLUDES:01 Decarbonising South Africas power system02 Decarbonising the South African petrochemicals and chemicals sector03 The role of gas in South Africas pa

30、th to net-zero04 Decarbonising the South African mining sector05 Decarbonising the AFOLU(Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use)sector in South Africa06 Decarbonising the South African transport Sector07 Decarbonising the South African heavy manufacturing sector 08 Decarbonising the South African b

31、uilding and construction sector09 Financing South Africas Just Transition10 South Africas net-zero transition6 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAnuGen hydrogen-powered ZEV unveiled at Anglo Americans Mogalakwena mine.Image:7CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT

32、 SECTOROVERVIEW OF CEO CHAMPIONSOnboarding of additional CEOs ongoingJoanne YawitchNBI CEOCas CoovadiaBUSA CEOAlan PullingerFirst Rand CEOAndr de RuyterEskom CEOShirley MachabaPwC CEOArrie RautenbachABSA CEOIan WilliamsonOld Mutual CEOLungisa FuzileStandard Bank South Africa CEOPaul HanrattySanlam C

33、EOLeila FourieJSE Group CEOStuart MckensieEthos CEOGavin Hudson Tongaat Hulett CEONombasa TsengwaExxaro CEOPortia DerbyTransnet CEOMark DytorAECI CEOSeelan NaidooEngen MD and CEOTheo BoschoffAgBiz CEODeidr PenfoldCAIA Exec DirectorMohammed AkoojeeImperial Logistics CEONolitha FakudeAnglo American SA

34、 ChairpersonStuart KentAurex Constructors CEOTaelo MojapeloBP Southern Africa CEO8 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAVivien McMenaminMondi SA CEORoland van WijnenPPC Africa CEONjombo LekulaPPC MD SA Cement and Materials Fleetwood GroblerSasol CEONyimpini MabundaGE SA CEOHlon

35、iphizwe MtoloShell SA CEOTshokolo TP NchochoIDC CEOAlex ThielSAPPI CEOAndrew RobinsonNorton Rose Fulbright CEOBertina EngelbrechtClicks Group CEO9CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR10 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA1.FOREWORDJUST TRANSITION AND CLIM

36、ATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICASouth Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and to the Paris Agreement.As an energy and emissions intensive middle-income developing country,it recognises the need for it to contribute its fair share to the global

37、 effort to move towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,taking into account the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the need for recognition of its capabilities and national circumstances.South Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and will need signi

38、ficant international support to transition its economy and to decarbonise.Furthermore,given the countrys high rate of inequality,poverty and unemployment and the extent of dependence on a fossil fuel-based energy system and economy,this transition must take place in a way that is just,that leaves no

39、-one behind and that sets the country onto a new,more equitable and sustainable development path;one which builds new local industries and valuechains.In response to the above imperatives,the National Business Initiative,together with Business Unity South Africa and the Boston Consulting Group,has w

40、orked with corporate leaders to assess whether the pathways exist for the countrys economic sectors to decarbonise by 2050,and whether this can be done in such a way as to build resilience to the impacts of climate change and to put the country onto a new,low emissions development path.The work done

41、 by the business community has interrogated the energy,liquid fuels,mining,chemicals,AFOLU(Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use),transport and heavy industrial sectors.The results of the modelling and analytical work have been informed by numerous industry experts,academics and scientists.The res

42、ults demonstrate that these pathways do exist and that even a country with an economy that is structurally embedded in an energy-intensive production system,canshift.The results of this work to date have shown that to realise these pathways,efforts must begin now.Timing is of the essence and the bus

43、iness community is of the view that there is no time like the present to create the regulatory and policy environment that would support transitioning the economy.Accordingly,business can commit unequivocally to supporting South Africas commitment to find ways to transition to a net-zero emissions e

44、conomy by 2050.Furthermore,in November 2022,South Africa tabled its revised Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC)to the UNFCCC.Business recognises the need for greater ambition to position the country as an attractive investment destination and increase the chances of accessing green economic stim

45、ulus and funding packages.Specifically,business would support a level of ambition that would see the country committing to a range of 420350 Mt CO2e by 2030.This is significantly more ambitious than the NDC put out for public comment,and would require greater levels of support with regard to means o

46、f implementation from the international community than is currently the case.It is also consistent with international assessments of South Africas fair share contribution to the global effort,and it would further ensure that the no-regret decisions,that would put South Africa onto a net-zero 2050 em

47、issions trajectory,would be implementedsooner.While South Africa has leveraged a degree of climate finance from the international community,the scale and depth of the transition envisaged will require substantial investments over an extended period of time.Critically,social costs and Just Transition

48、 costs must be factored in.Significant financial,technological,and capacity support will be required to support the decarbonisation of hard to abate sectors.Early interventions in these sectors will becritical.11CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORBusiness sees the support of t

49、he international community as essential for the country to achieve its climate objectives.For this reason,business believes that a more ambitious NDC,and one that would place the country firmly on a net-zero emissions by 2050 trajectory,would have to be conditional on the provision of the requisite

50、means of support by the international community.In this light the business community will play its part to develop a portfolio of fundable adaptation and mitigation projects that would build resilience and achieve deep decarbonisation.Despite the depth of the challenge,South African business stands

51、ready to play its part in this historical endeavour.Business is committed to working with government and other social partners,with our employees,our stakeholders,and the international community,to embark on a deep decarbonisation path towards net-zero and to build the resilience to the impacts of c

52、limate change that will ensure that our country contributes its fair share to the global climate effort.Upington,Northern Cape.Photo: JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA2.INTRODUCTION2.1 THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT This report is part of the Just Transition and Climate Pathway

53、s study for South Africa.It focuses on the decarbonisation of South Africas transport sector,and is part of a series of reports that are being released.These reports are intended to leverage further engagement between sector experts and key stakeholders,beyond the extensive stakeholder engagement th

54、at has been undertaken since August 2020 within the respective technical working groups of the project.We hope this will foster continued dialogue as we work towards a final report that will collate the individual sector findings and provide collective insight.2.2 THE CASE FOR CHANGE 1 IPCC.2018.Spe

55、cial Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.2 Extrapolation of the medians of various methodologies described by Climate Action Tracker.The full range is 411 Gt CO2e.3 World Meteorological Organization.2019.Statement on the State of the Global Climate.2.2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RACE TO GLOBAL NET-ZERO E

56、MISSIONS BY 2050Climate change is the defining challenge of our time.Anthropogenic climate change poses an existential threat to humanity.To avoid catastrophic climate change and irreversible tipping points,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)stresses the need to stabilise global warm

57、ing at 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.For a 66%chance of limiting warming by 2100 to 1.5C,this would require the world to stay within a total carbon budget estimated by the IPCC to be between 420 to 570 gigatonnes(Gt)of CO2,to reduce net anthropogenic emission of CO2 by 45%of 2010 levels by 2030,

58、and to then reach net-zero around2050.1 Hence,mitigating the worst impacts of climate change requires all countries to decarbonise their economies.In the 2019 World Meteorological Organization report,Statement on the State of the Global Climate,the United Nations(UN)Secretary-General urged:“Time is

59、fast running out for us to avert the worst impacts of climate disruption and protect our societies from the inevitable impacts to come.”South Africa,in order to contribute its fair share to the global decarbonisation drive,bearing in mind the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities a

60、nd respective capabilities,should similarly set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050,and also keep it within a fair share of the global carbon budget allocated,estimated to be between 7and 9 Gt CO2e.2Even if global warming is limited to 1.5C,the world will face significantly increased ris

61、ks to natural and human systems.For example,2019 was already 1.1C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures,and with extreme weather events that have increased in frequency over the past decades,the consequences are already apparent.3 13CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR“Time i

62、s fast running out for us to avert the worst impacts of climate disruption and protect our societies from the inevitable impacts to come.”Mr Antnio Guterres,United Nations Secretary-GeneralMore severe and frequent floods,droughts and tropical storms,dangerous heatwaves,runaway fires,and rising sea l

63、evels are already threatening lives and livelihoods across theplanet.South Africa will be among the countries at greatest physical risk from climate change.It is already a semi-arid country and a global average temperature increase of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels translates to an average 3C incr

64、ease for Southern Africa,with the central interior and north-eastern periphery regions of South Africa likely to experience some of the highest increases.4 Research shows that a regional average temperature increase of over 1.5C for South Africa translates to a greater variability in rainfall patter

65、ns.Models show the central and western interiors of the country trending towards warmer and drier conditions,and the eastern coastal and escarpment regions of the country experiencing greater variability in rainfall as well as an increased risk of extreme weather events.4 Department of Environmental

66、 Affairs,Republic of South Africa.2018.South Africas Third National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.Rising temperatures and increased aridity and rainfall variability will have severe consequences for South Africas agricultural systems,particularly on th

67、e countrys ability to irrigate,grow and ensure the quality of fruit and grain crops;and on the health of livestock,such as sheep and cattle.The agricultural system will see decreased productivity and declining health at temperature thresholds.Parasites tend to flourish in warmer conditions,threateni

68、ng people as well as livestock and crops.Increasing temperatures and rainfall variability threaten South Africas status as a mega-biodiverse country.Severe climate change and temperature increases will shift biome distribution,resulting in land degradation and erosion.The most notable risk is the im

69、pact on the grassland biome,essential for the health of South Africas water catchments,combined with the risk of prolonged drought.Finally,rising ambient temperatures,due to climate change and the urban heat effect,threaten the health of people,particularly those living in cramped urban conditions a

70、nd engaging in hard manual labour,as higher temperatures result in increased risk of heat stress and Photo:UN Climate Action Summit14 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAa reduction in productivity.Therefore,limiting global climate change and adapting to inevitable changes in

71、the local climate will be critical to limit the direct,physical risks to South Africa.Like many developing countries,South Africa has the task of balancing the urgent need for a just economic transition and growth,while ensuring environmental resources are sustainably used and consumed,and respondin

72、g to the local physical impacts of climate change.5 While South Africa is highly vulnerable to the physical impacts of climate change,its economy is also vulnerable to a range of transition risks posed by the global economic trend toward a low-carbon future,such as those from changing markets and te

73、chnologies,and from regulations.South Africa is also facing a significant trade risk.It ranks in the top 20 most carbon-intensive global economies on an emissions per Gross Domestic Product(GDP)basis.The economy will face mounting trade pressure as trade partners implement their low-carbon commitmen

74、ts.South Africa has predominantly coal-based power generation,with the coal-to-liquid(CTL)process in the liquid fuels sector,and a coal-reliant industrial sector.In the mining 5 Department of Environmental Affairs,Republic of South Africa.2016.South Africas Second Annual Climate Change Report.6 http

75、s:/ of the four most significant minerals in South Africas commodity footprint are at risk,given the global efforts to curb emissions:thermal coal,Platinum Group Metals(PGMs),iron ore and gold.The bulk of South Africas exports comprise carbon-intensive commodities from the mining,manufacturing,and a

76、gricultural sectors,which will become less competitive in markets in a future decarbonised world.These sectors also provide the majority of employment of unskilled labour at a regional level.The carbon-intensity of the South African economy,key sectors,and export commodities must be seen against the

77、 backdrop of the countrys key trading partners committing to ambitious decarbonisation goals.By October 2022,countries representing 83%of global carbon dioxide emissions and 91%of the worlds economy have made ambitious commitments to carbon-neutrality.Many of South Africas key export markets have se

78、t net-zero targets,including the European Union(EU),China,the United States,the United Kingdom,Japan,India,United Arab Emirates(UAE),andSouth Korea(see Figure 1).6Figure 1:Trade-related risks pose additional threats to South Africas economy if it does not transitionVolumes of South Africas exports t

79、o leading partners in 2018(ZAR bn)No net-zero commitment/pledge yetNet-zero commitment/pledge EU plans to implement carbon border adjustment by 2023WorldEuropean Union*ChinaUnited StatesUnited KingdomJapanRepublic of KoreaUnited Arab EmiratesHong KongNeighbouring African CountriesOther1 240India2261

80、41920659361Representing 50%of export valueNote:Exchange rate based on 2018 average=ZAR13:US$24.*Top three trade partners within EU are Germany,Netherlands and Belgium,and among those with most aggressive targets.Source:World Integrated Trade Solution 2018;Press research.15CHAPTER 6:DECARB

81、ONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORAs part of the Glasgow Climate Pact at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties(COP26)in November 2021,countries were requested to“revisit and strengthen”their 2030 emissions-reduction targets known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs by th

82、e end of 2022 to better align with the Paris Agreements goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C.Over and above this,certain regions like the EU are considering carbon border taxes which could impact future trade.Such taxes would be applied on the carbon content of imports to the EU.It is th

83、erefore essential to consider how South Africas competitiveness in global markets,and hence the viability of its industries,will be affected should key trading partners start taking steps to protect their net-zero commitments and enable their net-zero carbon growth trajectories.South Africa will nee

84、d to address the risks and seize the opportunities presented by climate change.South Africa will have the chance to tap into new opportunities.Goldman Sachs estimate that around 35%of the decarbonisation of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is reliant on access to clean power generation,

85、and that lower-carbon hydrogen and clean fuels will be required for hard-to-decarbonise sectors.7 South Africa has key strategic advantages which can be leveraged to tap into such emerging opportunities.It has a number of significant assets including sun,wind and space.Renewables-dominated energy sy

86、stems and local manufacturing are key.South Africas coal assets are aged,and decommissioning coal plants can be done within the carbon budget and with minimal stranded 7 Goldman Sachs.2020.Carbonomics:Innovation,Deflation and Affordable De-carbonisation.asset risk.Its motor vehicle manufacturing exp

87、ertise could be transitioned to electric vehicle(EV)production.The countrys stable and well-regulated financial services sector,among the most competitive in the world,would make a strong base for green finance for the continent.The combination of wind and solar enables the right kind of conditions

88、for Green hydrogen(Green H2),setting the stage for South Africa to be a net exporter.The role of PGMs in hydrogen and fuel cell technology and the increased demand for certain mined commodities,like copper for use in green technology,could bolster the minerals sector.South Africas experience with th

89、e FischerTropsch process and installed asset base positions it to be one of the world leaders in carbon-neutral fuels,and other innovations are waiting to be unlocked.The imperative is clear:South Africa must decarbonise its economy in the next three decades and transform it into a low-carbon,climat

90、e-resilient,and innovative economy.This transition also needs to take place in a manner that is just and simultaneously addresses inequality,poverty and unemployment to ensure that no-one is left behind and that the future economy is also socially resilient andinclusive.Photo:Shutterstock16 JUST TRA

91、NSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA2.2.2 THE NEED FOR A JUST TRANSITIONWith a Gini coefficient of 0.63,South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world today.8 A recent study shows that the top 10%of South Africas population owns 86%of aggregate wealth and the top 0.1%c

92、lose to one-third.Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,levels of poverty have further increased and have likely shifted beyond 55%of the population.In July 2020,a record 30.8%of the population was unemployed.9 Exacerbating this are levels of youth unemployment that are amongst the highest in the

93、 world.10As South Africa grapples with the economic recession accompanying the pandemic,and copes with the need to rebuild the capacity of the State and its institutions following a decade of state capture,it must start rebuilding and transforming its economy to make it resilient and relevant in a d

94、ecarbonised world.However,while a transition towards a net-zero economy will create new economic opportunities for South Africa,it is also a transition away from coal,which without careful planning and new investments will put many jobs and value chains at risk in the short-term,and exacerbate curre

95、nt socio-economic challenges.Today,the coal mining sector provides almost 0.4 million jobs in the broader economy,with 80 k direct jobs and 200kto 300 k indirect and induced jobs in the broader coal value chain and economy.The impact is even broader when it is taken into account that,on average,each

96、 mine worker supports 5 to 10 dependents.This implies a total of 2 to 4 million livelihoods.11 The low-carbon transition must do more than simply address what is directly at risk from decarbonisation.The transition must also address the broader economic concern of stalled GDP growth of 1%for the las

97、t five years,rising unemployment with 3%8 The World Bank.2021.South Africa Overview.9 StatsSA.2017.Poverty Trends in South Africa.An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015.10 Chatterjee,A.et al.2020.Estimating the Distribution of Household Wealth in South Africa.11 Minerals Council of

98、 South Africa.2020.Facts and Figures.12 Department of Statistics,Republic of South Africa.2021.13 South African Reserve Bank.2021.increase over the last five years,12 a deteriorating debt to GDP ratio,and the consistently negative balance of trade.13 These challenges are more severe given further de

99、terioration during the COVID-19 pandemic.It is therefore critical that South Africas transition is designed and pursued in a way that is just;meaning that it reduces inequality,maintains and strengthens social cohesion,eradicates poverty,ensures participation in a new economy for all,and creates a s

100、ocio-economic and environmental context which builds resilience against the physical impacts of climate change.This transition requires action,coordination,and collaboration at all levels.Within sectors,action will need to be taken on closures or the repurposing of single assets.Job losses must also

101、 be addressed with initiatives like early retirement and reskilling programmes,with the latter having the potential for integration with topics like skills inventories and shared infrastructure planning and development.A national,coordinated effort to enable the Just Transition will also be crucial

102、to address the education system and conduct national workforce planning.In order to implement its Just Transition,South Africa will need to leverage global support in the form of preferential green funding,capacity-building,technology-sharing,skills development,and trade cooperation.To move towards

103、this net-zero vision for the economy by 2050,South Africa must mitigate rather than exacerbate existing socio-economic challenges and seize emerging opportunities to support its socio-economic development agenda.How to ensure a Just Transition towards net-zero and to advance South Africas socio-econ

104、omic context is therefore the key guiding principle of this study.2.3 OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH OF THE OVERALL STUDYKey objectives.Achieving net-zero emissions in South Africa by 2050,whilst ensuring a Just Transition,is a complex and unique challenge.Extensive studies examining how a Just Transition

105、towards a lower-carbon economy can be achieved in South Africa have already been conducted or are currently underway.There are many different views on what defines a Just Transition in South Africa,which decarbonisation ambitions South Africa is able to pursue and commit to,and how a transition towa

106、rds a lower-carbon economy can beachieved.This study is not advocating a particular position.It is not setting ambitions around levels and timelines for South Africas emission reduction.Nor is it prescribing sector-or company-specific emission reduction targets.17CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AF

107、RICAN TRANSPORT SECTORFigure 2:Approach of the overall study We are driving a collaborative study to create a unified voice ofSouth African business at COP and accelerate Green Stimulus.20212022Ramp-up to Launch EventELECTRICITYPETRO-CHEMICALSMININGPRIORITY SECTORSEstablish fact-base and reference p

108、oints(emissions baseline and outlook to 2050)Detail mitigation measures and opportunities per sectorAssess feasibility and impact(including socio-economic and Just Transition implications)Define feasible climate pathways for South Africa(including sector couplings)ALL SECTORSELECTRICITYMININGEnhance

109、 emissions baseline with data for remaining sectors and fine-tune previously covered sectorsExpand impact assessment for remaining sectors and fine-tune previous findingsComplete mitigation pathways for South Africa(including adaptation and resilience impact)Finalise Just Transition narrative and pr

110、eparations for COP27PETRO-CHEMICALSAFOLU*CROSS-CUTTING THEMESTRANSPORTACCELERATING GREEN FINANCEDevelop Green Stimulus vision and strategy,prioritise no-regret green projects and prepare international funding requestsAnalysis will be completed at a sector level and follows a 80/20 approach to asset-

111、based detailing covering key assets only(excludes adaptation and resilience detailing)STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENTwith critical South African industries/business leaders,government ministries,civil society,labour and COP27 representativesPhase 1aPhase 1bFinalisation *AFOLU:Agriculture,Forestry and Other L

112、and Use Source:NBI-BCG project team.THE ROLE OF GASFINANCING SOUTH AFRICAs JUST TRANSITIONSOUTH AFRICAS NET-ZERO TRANSITIONHEAVY MANUFACTURINGBUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION18 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAThe study does aim to develop the necessary technical and socio-economi

113、c pathways research and analysis to support decision-making,and bolster a coordinated and coherent effort among national and international stakeholders.This research is anchored around three keyquestions:What is the cost of inaction for South Africa should it fail to respond to critical global econo

114、mic drivers stemming from global climate action?What would it take,from a technical perspective,to transition each of South Africas economic sectors to net-zero emissions by 2050?What are the social and economic implications for South Africa in reaching net-zero emissions by 2050?Approach.To underst

115、and how a transition of the South African economy towards net-zero emissions can be achieved,the study assessed each sector and intersectoral interdependencies in detail.Our analysis is structured along the understanding of what the decarbonisation pathways could be for key heavy emitting sectors,na

116、mely:electricity,petrochemicals and chemicals,mining,metals and minerals,manufacturing,transport,and AFOLU(Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use)(see Figure 2).Given this is a multi-year project,a preliminary report is being released as each sector study is completed.Towards the end of the study,e

117、ach sector analysis will be further refined on the basis of a better understanding of interlinkages.For example,insights gained from the transport sector analysis around the impact of electric vehicles on electricity demand will be leveraged for further refinement of the electricity sectoranalysis.T

118、he first phase of the study focused on todays key drivers of South Africas emissions:electricity and the petrochemicals and chemicals sectors which make up more than 60%of the countrys total emissions.Given the socio-economic implications of decarbonising South Africas energy landscape,particularly

119、impacting coal mining regions and the mining workforce,the mining sector was included and assessed as part of the projects first phase.The second phase of the study focused on the transport and AFOLU sectors.The study also provided a view on the role of natural gas.Eventually,the study will provide

120、a comprehensive view of the South African economy,its potential future net-zero economy and the pathways that can lead to this future economy as informed by various key stakeholders.The study is a collaborative effort,aiming to create a unified voice of South African business on the countrys needs,o

121、pportunities,and challenges in achieving a net-zero economy,involving multiple stakeholders from all sectors.The governance arrangement that has overseen this work is key to enabling this collaborative,multi-stakeholder approach:across multiple levels,key stakeholders are involved in the content dev

122、elopment.The sector assessments were conducted within technical committees which included South African and international experts and stakeholders from private and public sectors,as well as civil society and academia.An advisory board consisting of high-profile representatives from various sectors i

123、ncluding industry,government,labour,civil society,and academia and a steering committee consisting of selected private and public sector representatives,provided continuous direction on content development(see Figure 3).In addition,a group of 30CEOs from across the private sector endorsed and guided

124、 the study development(see pages 79).19CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORFigure 3:Governance set-up of the studyTo ensure representative,balanced and fact-based content,a comprehensive governance structure is in place.CEO championsCEOsAdvisory boardsIndustry,government and ci

125、vil society representativesSteering committeeCompany representativesEnergy sectorPetrochemicals and chemicals sector Mining sectorTransport sectorAFOLU sectorHeavy manufacturing sector Technical committees and expert meetingsSocio-economic modelling for a Just TransitionGOVERNMENTPresidency&various

126、national departmentsFour key objectives of governance structureCore project teamNBI,BCGEnable multi-stakeholder inputs through an inclusive consultation processCreate a platform for collaboration and alignment on key assumptions and methodologyEnsure that the final output is fact-based and balanced

127、in its recommendationsProvide a fact-based business perspective into national consultations and planning processes hosted by governmentThe role of gasBuilding and construction sectorCross-cuttingFinancing South Africas Just TransitionCross-cuttingSouth Africas net-zero transition20 JUST TRANSITION A

128、ND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA2.4 APPROACH TO THIS TRANSPORT REPORT14 Department of Forestry,Fisheries,and the Environment(DFFE),2021.National GHG Inventory Report 2017.The aim of the transport sector analysis is to identify potential pathways to a just,net-zero transition of South Afric

129、as transport sector by 2050.South Africas transport sector faces a broad range of challenges,including the carbon intensity of the sector and a complex set of structural inefficiencies,inhibiting the sectors ability to serve as an enabler of economic growth and industrial development.As such,South A

130、fricas future transport sector needs to be decarbonised while managing demand*and improving the efficiency,reliability,and affordability of transport as a service.This analysis answers five key questions:1.What is the starting point for South Africas transportsector?2.How will global decarbonisation

131、 trends impact South Africas transport sector?3.What net-zero pathways exist for South Africas transport sector?What local levers are required to fully decarbonise the sector by 2050?What could a net-zero pathway,anchored on these levers,look like for South Africa?What are the key outcomes and signp

132、osts to monitor in decarbonising South Africas transport sector?4.What are the key enablers to unlock a just net-zero transition for the transport value chain?5.What are the recommended no-regret actions?*Note:Managing demand will be critical for the decarbonisation of each mode of transport and als

133、o for a Just Transition of the sector.This analysis assesses the high-level impact of spatial planning on the total demand for transport,as per the International Energy Agency(IEA)scenarios,but does not assess quantitatively,and in detail,the impact of improved urban and spatial planning.Addressing

134、South Africas spatial planning will be essential for a Just Transition.South Africas transport sector encompasses the technologies,systems and infrastructure for passenger and freight transport,across all modes of transport.This assessment of the transport sector focuses only on local intracity,inte

135、rcity and interprovincial transport within the borders of South Africa in line with the national Greenhouse Gas Inventory(GHGI).14 The scope of the analysis across modes is:The road transport sector:This includes all private passenger vehicles,public buses and minibus taxis(MBTs),and light-to heavy-

136、freight vehicles using the supporting road infrastructure.We do not look at road infrastructure changes that might be needed.The rail transport sector:This includes passenger and commercial/freight rail.The passenger rail network include the Metrorail and Shosholoza Meyl networks,as well as the Gaut

137、rain rail network in Gauteng.The commercial rail sector consists of the Transnet FreightRail.The local aviation sector:This encompasses all aeroplanes using airports and airport infrastructure,primarily for inter-provincial passenger transport.We did not look at the need to alter ground infrastructu

138、re supporting domestic aviation.The local shipping sector:This includes the small-scale luxury cruise industry and community fishing industry.The emissions of these industries are negligible,and not reflected in South Africas emission baseline.As such,this analysis only assesses the strategic implic

139、ations of decarbonising South Africas local and international shipping sector rather than quantifying a decarbonisation pathway.What is not assessed quantitatively in detail in this report is what it would take to decarbonise international shipping and aviation routes.However,the impact on shipping

140、costs as a total percentage of export costs(and therefore global competitiveness)is referenced.A range of stakeholders along the transport value chain have been engaged throughout the assessment,to strengthen the assumptions,test the findings,and enrich the insights.Stakeholders from the upstream en

141、ergy sectors like the power and petrochemicals sectors,the local public and private transport and logistics sectors,automotive manufacturers,academia,and broader local and international transport experts have also been engaged.21CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR3.KEY FINDING

142、S OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ANALYSIS10 key findings on the transport sector analysisTransport in South Africa is the third largest emitting sector,with 90%of emissions from road transport.It faces the dual challenge of decarbonising whilst improving transport as a service for consumers and enabling ot

143、her sectors to decarbonise.Global trends in technology and policy can drive a 50%reduction in emissions by 2050,with limited local support primarily due to electric vehicle(EV)adoption in road transport.Without a deliberate and coordinated local effort,South Africas transport sector will be on a tra

144、jectory that is inconsistent with the NDC by 2030 and inconsistent with net-zero by 2050.With the right support,the transport sector can be fully decarbonised by 2050 via four key levers:Improved spatial planning;Mode-shift to rail and public transport;Accelerated zero-emission technology adoption,c

145、oupled with the decarbonisation of the nationalgrid;and Use of green fuels for hard-to-abate aviation and shipping.A net-zero pathway requires shifting 15%20%of road traffic to rail,banning new internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicle sales by 2035 and enabling zero emission vehicle(ZEV)uptake for rem

146、aining road transport,as well as blending to 100%sustainable aviation fuels by 2050.Of all levers that must be pulled to get the transport sector to net-zero,the one that is likely to have the largest financial impact on the end-user of transport as a service is the greening of fuels.The use of gree

147、n fuels is highly OPEX-intensive with a fuel premium of up to 2.1x for e-ammonia,2.5x for e-methanol and 1.72.1x for e-kerosene,even in 2050.South Africa should strategically prioritise high value/value-added exports by developing local beneficiation and industrialisation capacity to mitigate the im

148、pact of costly green synfuels(e-ammonia and e-methanol)on shipping costs considering the high trade-weighted distance to key trade partners(such as China,EU and US).Key uncertainties and signposts lie in the choice of battery electric vehicles(BEVs)vs fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)in heavy duty

149、transport,autonomous vehicle adoption,the impact of spatial planning,and the interaction between formal and informal public transport.To achieve this ambitious pathway,South Africa must build and operate an efficient public transport system,invest in rail and port infrastructure as well as improve t

150、heir reliability and efficiency,and incentivise EV adoption and public transport use.Immediate next steps and no-regret actions include incorporating EVs in the EU trade agreement to reduce import tariffs,investing in revitalising the rail infrastructure,and improving governance within rail and port

151、 management.22 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA3.1 TOWARDS A NET-ZERO TRANSPORT SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA 15 IEA,2021.Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.16 IEA,2021.17 South Africas export shipping market,with the supporting port infrastructure

152、,is classified as international,non-local,shipping and as such is excluded from the baseline.The strategic implications of decarbonising international shipping are assessed,similar to local shipping.3.1.1 WHAT IS THE STARTING POINT FOR SOUTH AFRICAS TRANSPORT SECTOR?The global transport sectorGlobal

153、ly,the transport sector enables economic growth and industrial development by facilitating the movement of people and goods,but the sector is a major emitter.In 2019 the transport sector was responsible for almost 25%of global emissions.Even with decreases in transport demand linked to the COVID-19

154、pandemic,the transport sector still contributed approximately 20%to global emissions in 2020,and is expected to return to similar levels beyond 2023.The global transport sectors emission footprint is driven by the sectors reliance on fossil fuels,with 90%of transport energy needs in 2020 met with oi

155、l.15Beyond managing the demand for transport,decarbonising transport will require the shifting to more efficient transport modes and the scale-up of decarbonised,net-zero compatible modes of transport.According to the IEA Net Zero by 2050 report:16 Road transport accounts for the majority,around 80%

156、,of the sectors total emissions globally due to the combustion of petrol and diesel in light passenger vehicles,buses and light-to heavy-freight vehicles.The decarbonisation of the road transport sector will require a shifting of road demand to rail,with rail capturing 20%of the total passenger dema

157、nd by 2050,and uptake of up to almost 2 bn light battery electric vehicles(BEVs),hybrid electric vehicles(xHEVs)and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)by 2050,from 11mn in 2020.Rail transport is a low-emitting and efficient mode of transport.The emissions from rail transport are negligible,contributi

158、ng only 1%to the sectors global direct emissions in 2020 with this contribution maintained pre-and post-pandemic.The rail sector will,however,be a key enabler to decarbonise and improve the efficiency of both road and aviation transport,with a mode-shift to rail.The share of electricity and hydrogen

159、 in the rail energy mix in 2050 reaches 96%,with 90+%electricity and 5%hydrogen.Aviation and shipping also contribute to the sectors greenhouse gas emissions with 0.6 Gt and 0.8 Gt emitted in 2020,respectively,due to the combustion of jet fuel and marine gas oil.There is a role for shifting aviation

160、 demand to rail,but the decarbonisation of these sectors will also require the uptake of lower and zero-emission fuels,with the consumption of fossil jet fuel ramping down from 9 EJ in 2020 to 3 EJ in 2050,and with the use of sustainable zero-emission fuels ramping up from 2030,to reach 80%of the en

161、ergy supply in2050.17Definitions of lower emission alternatives to conventional oil products Biofuels:Substitute fuels derived from biogenic carbon sources,such as bioethanol from sugarcane,biodiesel from used cooking oil or biogas,and biomethane from anaerobic digestion of organic wastes.These have

162、 the potential to drastically lower lifecycle emissions versus fossil-based equivalents,depending on supply chain and process emissions.E-fuels:Substitute fuels,either Green hydrogen itself or derivatives using Renewable Energy(RE)and sustainable carbon dioxide or nitrogen,such as Sustainable Aviati

163、on Fuel(SAF)or e-methanol synthesised from direct air capture(atmospheric),CO2 or e-ammonia using nitrogen captured with RE.These have the potential to be true net-zero fuels,with all carbon emitted having been captured from the atmosphere.Low-emissions fuels:General term for substitute fuels(biofue

164、ls and e-fuels).Since the carbon emitted in combustion is equivalent to the carbon captured in organic feedstock growth or removal from the atmosphere,they can approach net-zero(depending on production and supply chain emissions).Typically used as drop-in replacements,their sustainability status dep

165、ends on their reduction in lifecycle carbon emissions versus the fuel they are replacing.23CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORSouth Africas transport sectorTransport in South Africa is the third largest emitting sector,with 90%of emissions from road transport.It faces the dual

166、 challenge of decarbonising whilst improving transport as a service for consumers and enabling other sectors to decarbonise.South Africas transport sector faces a complex set of challenges across the modes of transport.It faces the dual challenge of needing to be decarbonised,whilst improving transp

167、ort as a service that enables:1.Social development by promoting safe,reliable,accessible,and affordable mobility for people2.Economic and industrial development by facilitating the efficient and reliable movement of goods and 18 Department of Forestry,Fisheries,and the Environment(DFFE),2021.Nationa

168、l GHG Inventory Report 2017.provision of services to consumers and for infrastructure development3.Environmental and climate-resilience by eliminating the significant emissions footprint,addressing broader environmental impacts like air pollution,and prioritising climate-resilient infrastructure.The

169、 sector is the third largest emitter in South Africa,with almost 55 Mt CO2 emissions contributing more than 10%to South Africas national gross emissions(Figure4).18 Across modes,the transport sector faces a broader set of challenges,including for example,the high cost,unsafe,unreliable current publi

170、c transport system and the deteriorating road and rail infrastructure it uses.These challenges,exacerbated by the spatial planning legacy of Apartheid in South Africa,limit the sectors ability to enable social development,economic growth,and industrial development in South Africa.50 Mt CO2e is road

171、vehicles7 Mt CO2e is mining22511%of gross total5221500-30ELECTRICITYPETRO-CHEMICALS&CHEMICALSAGRICULTURE&FORESTRYMANUFACTURING&CONSTRUCTIONMINERAL&METAL PRODUCTIONCOMMERCIAL&RESIDENTIALWASTETRANSPORTAFOLU SINKSGROSS TOTALNET TOTAL2017 NATIONAL EMISSIONS BASELINE(Mt CO2e)13471UPDATEDFigure

172、 4:The transport sectors contribution to South Africas national gross emissionsNotes:1.Emission figures based on view of electricity&heat production,of which electricity production contributes 97%of emission.2.GHGI does not explicitly state estimate for mining emissions so this has been estimated.As

173、sumed scope 1 emissions share of top 12companies is same as their market share(80%)and use this to gross up to 100%.To be validated with CDP data.3.Gross total excludes categories 1A5 as it is not linked to any sectors and 1B1 to avoid the double counting of fugitive emissions from coal mining which

174、 are included In the mining sector emissions approximation.Agriculture emissions:Agriculture(47Mt,labelled as AFOLU excl.FOLU in GHGI)+energy emissions in agriculture/forestry/fishing(4Mt).AFOLU sinks:FOLU(labelled as land in GHGI)+Other(harvested wood products).Source:GHGI(2017),IEA(2015),WEO(2019)

175、,CDP(2015),GHGI(2015),CAT.24 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAFigure 5:2017 Transport sector emissions sectoral breakdown2017 TRANSPORT SECTOR GHG EMISSIONS BASELINE(Mt CO2e)Even though shipping is not part of the emissions baseline,we will assess high-level implications of

176、 e-fuels on shippingROAD TRANSPORTTOTALRAILAVIATIONSHIPPINGCARSLCVsHCVsOTHER149.9(91.2%)4.20.654.7Notes:*Other includes MCVs,MBTs,SUVs,motorcycles,buses;*LCV Light commercial vehicles,MCV medium commercial vehicles,HCV Heavy commercial vehicle;MBT minibus taxi;SUV Sports utility vehicle.Source:DEA-B

177、IZ 2014.South Africas transport emissions are primarily driven by the road transport sub-sector which contributes 90+%to the sectors emission baseline,with almost 50 Mt CO2 directly emitted in 2017.19 The road sectors emissions stem from the combustion of 850 PJ 25bn L of petrol and diesel in 8 mn p

178、assenger vehicles,more than 300kMBTs,60k buses and almost 3mn light-to heavy-freight vehicles.20The roads,especially in major cities,are critically congested and the infrastructure is deteriorating,with around three-quarters of the South African National Roads Agency SOC Ltd(SANRAL)roads older than

179、the original 20-year planned lifespan.The public bus system,which includes the Bus Rapid Transit(BRT)in Durban,Johannesburg and Cape Town,and the taxi industry,90%of which is the informal MBT industry,are the main public road transport systems,all of which face safety and reliability challenges.21 W

180、hile the public bus and train systems are more affordable,largely due to government 19 Department of Forestry,Fisheries,and the Environment(DFFE),2021.20 Electronic National Traffic Information System(eNaTIS),2021.21 Saferspaces.org,2022.The state of public transport in South Africa.22 Statistics So

181、uth Africa,2021.National Household Travel Survey 2020.23 Statistics South Africa,2021.National Household Travel Survey 2020.24 Transport Education Training Authority,2018.TETA Sector Profile Integrated Report 2018.25 Department of Forestry,Fisheries,and the Environment(DFFE),2021.subsidies,70%of hou

182、seholds needs are captured by the more costly MBTs due to their higher accessibility and flexible routes.22The high cost of public transport is reflected in the South Africa transport survey,which indicated that most households in the lowest income quintile spend more than 20%of their monthly income

183、 on public transport.23 South Africas road transport sector creates at least 900k direct jobs,almost 430k of which are linked to the taxi industry.The freight sector creates 260k jobs,with 170k linked to freight handling and the remaining 90k linked to freight road transport.The passenger sector cre

184、ates an additional 50k direct jobs,with significantly more indirect jobs linked to the production and sale of liquid fossil fuels,for example.24The local aviation sector is the second largest contributor to South Africas transport emissions,with 4 Mt in 2017.25 25CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AF

185、RICAN TRANSPORT SECTORThe sectors emissions are due to the combustion of almost 60 PJ(2bn L)of jet fuel.The average ticket cost for domestic air travel ranges from ZAR1 000ZAR2 000.These high and variable prices make air travel inaccessible to many South Africans.26 The aviation sector is the second

186、 smallest employer in the transport sector with 50k direct jobs,followed only by the 5k direct jobs in the shippingsector.27South Africas rail sector only contributes 1%to the sectors direct emissions,with less than 1 Mt direct CO2 emissions in 2017.Approximately 40%of South Africas rail is conventi

187、onal rail that runs off the combustion of diesel the only contributor to the sectors direct emissions.The remaining 60%is electric rail,which is more emissions-intensive than diesel rail due to South Africas emissions-intensive power supply.The indirect emissions from electricity of rail transport a

188、re higher than the direct emissions from diesel,both in relative and absolute terms,with 85%of the sectors emissions stemming from electricity consumption.28 The rail sectors infrastructure is deteriorating with aged assets and inadequate maintenance.The infrastructure faces challenges with safety a

189、nd reliability,which is perpetuated by theft and crime.In 2020,these factors contributed to more than 20 freight trains,on average,being cancelled per day.29 The rail sector is also a significant employer,with almost 110k direct jobs,excluding those in the freightsector.3026 Airports Company South A

190、frica,2021.Statistics.27 Transport Education Training Authority,2018.28 Department of Forestry,Fisheries,and the Environment(DFFE).South Africas Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential Analysis 2010 Technical Appendix E Transport Sector.29 Department of Transport&Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa,20

191、15.Challenges related to rail&road network system.30 Transport Education Training Authority,2018.31 Transnet National Ports Authority,2021.Port Statistics.32 Passenger kilometre is the unit of measurement for the transport of 1 passenger over 1 kilometre.33 Tonne kilometres is the unit of measuremen

192、t for freight transport which represents the transport of 1 tonne of goods over 1 kilometre.The maritime or shipping sector in South Africa is predominantly international commercial/freight shipping.Domestic shipping is limited to passenger cruises and small-scale boats for fishing and leisure.There

193、fore,there are limited domestic emissions from the maritime sector,as shown in Figure 5.However,the decarbonisation of the global shipping industry will have significant impact on South Africa,where 98%of international trade is seaborne.31To estimate what a future decarbonisation pathway for the tra

194、nsport sector could look like,it is critical to understand what South Africas transport sector demand trajectory looks like in a reference case.With an annual growth of 2%per annum,linked to economic and population growth,the demand for transport could almost double by 2050,reaching 700 bn passenger

195、 kilometres(pkm)32 and more than 960 bn tonne-kilometres(tkm)33 in 2050.This doubling of the demand for transport strengthens the decarbonisation imperative without local efforts to decarbonise,and if the emission factors across modes remain flat,the transport sectors annual emissions could double f

196、rom 55 Mt in 2020 to more than 100 Mt in 2050,one quarter of South Africas national emissions today.Photo:Shutterstock26 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAFigure 6:South African transport sector emissions as evolution driven by global trends5552575655514538Direct emissions i

197、n Mt CO2eBASE CASE(Reference Technology Scenario RTS)BASE CASE(Sustainable Development Scenario SDS)20030203520402045205055528200302035204020452050Road:CommercialRoad:PassengerRailAviation-32%-50%302830303028252242490545544

198、43444433 Uptake of zero-emissions tech across modes drives decline in emissions.Road transport the main driver of emissions(almost 90%)despite being most affected by global decarbonisation trends.Emissions in aviation remain,given relatively low adoption(4 mn remaining ICEs and hybrids in road trans

199、port with an almost 90%share of emissions.Adoption of sustainable aviation fuel occurs at the same rate as the RTS.Note:*The 2019 national vehicle parc is sourced from National Traffic Information System(Natis)and triangulated with NAAMSA and IHS Markit data.*ZEVs refers to zero-emission vehicles;ex

200、cluding international aviation energy demand.Source:eNatis;ICCT;IEA;IHS Markit;Marklines;NAAMSA;BCG battery model;NBI-BCG project team.3.1.2 HOW WILL GLOBAL DECARBONISATION TRENDS IMPACT SOUTH AFRICAS TRANSPORT SECTOR?Overview of the sectors evolution as impacted by global trendsGlobal trends in tec

201、hnology and policy can drive a 50%reduction in emissions by 2050,with limited local support primarily due to electric vehicle(EV)adoption in road transport.This report uses scenarios as described by the IEA.A global base case(the IEA Reference Technology Scenario)was used to project the uptake of gr

202、een transport solutions in SA as driven only by global technological change,transport and logistics standards,and international bans and regulations.More rigorous change was based on the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario,which still does not reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050.This is only achie

203、ved in the IEA Net Zero Scenario,https:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes.*27CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORFigure 7:Evolution of the vehicle parc as driven by global trendsxHEV351616Vehicle parc1 in mn

204、vehiclesBASE CASE(Reference Technology Scenario RTS)BASE CASE(Sustainable Development Scenario SDS)20030203520402045205020202520302035204020452050FCEVLNG vehicleICE vehicle2BEV0%868642356111%Vehicle parc growth driven by demand growth

205、 but passenger cars growth restricted by rise of on-demand mobility.Passenger:ZEVs reach competitiveness in the late 2020s/early-2030s(given high BEV import tariffs)with 60%adoption by 2050.Commercial:ZEVs reach competitiveness in mid-2030s with 56%adoption by 2050.Shift to public transport and risi

206、ng dominance of on-demand mobility restricts the growth of the passenger vehicle parc.Passenger:60%adoption in ZEVs as in RTS.Commercial:Overall,56%adoption of ZEVs as in the RTS.ZEVs reach competitiveness in heavy road commercial in early 2030s with adoption increasing to 54%(v 46%in RTS).Notes:1.V

207、ehicle parc does not include non-self-propelled vehicles and cycles,BEV battery electric vehicle,FCEV fuel cell electric vehicle,LNG liquefied natural gas vehicle,ZEV zero-emission vehicles(i.e.BEV&FCEV)2.ICE vehicles include petrol and diesel vehicles.3.xHEV includes:Hybrid electric vehicles(HEVs);

208、mild-hybrid electric vehicle(MHEV);and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle(PHEV).Source:eNatis;ICCT;IEA;IHS Markit;Marklines;NAAMSA;BCG battery model;NBI-BCG project team.With minimal local intervention,global trends will drive unavoidable change across the transport sector leading to 40%50%reduction in

209、 direct transport emissions by 2050(see Figure 6).This is driven primarily by government bans on ICE vehicles but also low-carbon alternatives,like BEVs for example,reaching parity on a total cost of ownership basis vs.fossil fuel alternatives.In the short-to mid-term however,emissions reduction is

210、negligible due to the inertia(for example 99%+ICE-based vehicles with 10+year replacement rates,consumer behaviour,availability of supporting infrastructure,etc.)that exists in the car parc.In fact,by 2030,emissions could rise by 5%and only a 10%20%reduction is seen by 2040.If left unmanaged,the sca

211、le of change required between 2040 and 2050 to reach net-zero,will therefore be unmanageable,leading to stranded assets both on bank loan books and in manufacturing.A deliberate and coordinated local effort is therefore foundational to enable a net-zero trajectory in transport by 2050.In the two bas

212、e cases projected for South Africa from the IEA RTS and SDS scenarios,and without enabling local policy,the number of ICE vehicles more than halves from 11mn vehicles in the vehicle parc in 2019 to only 46mn in 2050(see Figure 7).The number of ICE vehicles does,however,increase in the short-to mid-t

213、erm,peaking at 12mn vehicles in the 2030s.After 2035,the number of ICE vehicles in the vehicle parc declines due to the substitution of ICE vehicles with ZEVs annually.By 2050,passenger and freight adoption of 50%60%for ZEVs results in 79 mn BEVs and 1 mn FCEVs for heavier freight in the parc.A more

214、 granular view of this car parc change is as follows(numbers including xHEVs):Passenger parc(private):The number of ICE vehicles more than halves,from 8 mn in 2020 to 13 mn in 2050.The ICE vehicles are replaced with 57 mn BEVs by2050.28 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAFigu

215、re 8:Comparison of e-fuel costs in the South African aviation sector in 2050Average PtL synfuel costs 1.72.1X the price of Jet A1($/bbl)Use of a 50%quota of PtL synfuel would result in a 8%increase in airline ticket priceSCENARIO 1:CO2 source:BECCSSCENARIO 2:CO2 source:DACJet A1PtL syn fuel(25%)PtL

216、syn fuel(50%)PtL syn fuel(75%)PtL syn fuel(100%)902Because airlines have historically small margins,additional synthetic fuel costs are expected to be passed on to the customer.On average ZAR200 of every ticket goes to fuel cost.However,with a 50%synfuel quota,jet fuel costs increase to Z

217、AR260ZAR310,resulting in a ZAR80ZAR120 premium.The average flight fare is R1000,hence using 50%syn fuel quota would drive up ticket prices by 8%12%(ZAR80ZAR120 price premium).1.72.1X17162231Note:Dollars per barrel,based on theoretical average cost to produce(as no commercially active faci

218、lities exist);BECCS=Bioenergy carbon capture.The analysis accounts for neither carbon tax nor green subsidies.This is a comparison at 2050,and therefore takes into consideration learning rates of green technologies.Source:S&P Platts Jet Fuel Price Index;CAAFI;ICCT 2019;NBI-BCG project team.MBT and b

219、us parc(public):Across both the IEAs Reference Technology Scenario(RTS)and Sustainable Development Scenarios(SDS),the number of ICE MBTs and buses increases from 390k in 2020 to 430k620k in 2050,due to the growth in transport demand and the shifts to public transport.In the base case,a maximum of 30

220、k50k BEVs are in the public vehicle parc by 2050.Light-to medium-freight parc:The number of light-to medium vehicles increases from 2.8mn to 4.2mn4.8mn by 2050 driven by economic growth.BEVs are the main decarbonisation lever,accounting for almost 50%of the light to medium vehicle freight parc by 20

221、50.C/LNG vehicles and FCEVs make up only 1%together due to prohibitive cost structure.Heavy-freight parc:The number of ICE vehicles declines by 30%50%from 20202050,with 20k25k FCEVs and 30k50k BEVs by 2050.There is a short-term role for C/LNG vehicles peaking with 11k13k by 2035 in the base case(5%o

222、f the heavy-freight parc).CNG vehicles will be relevant for short travel distances while LNG for long-haul transport.In the rail transport sector,mode-shifts to rail and the switch from diesel to electric rail was assumed to follow the IEA Net Zero scenario(localised for South African transport sect

223、or inputs).Based on this scenario,electric rail reaches 100%of passenger and freight rail from around 2040,due to the electrification of rail in the base case.The demand for diesel for rail ramps down,as a result,from 23PJ in 2019 to 0 PJ in 2050 with a corresponding increase in electricity consumpt

224、ion from 10PJ in 2019 up to 40PJ in 2050.The ramp-down of diesel decreases the direct emissions of rail from 1Mt to 0Mt in 2050(with no indirect emissions by 2050,assuming a grid supply of electricity in line with a net-zero trajectory as per the NBI/BCG report,It all hinges on Renewables.For the av

225、iation and shipping sectors,the decarbonisation of fossil-derived liquid fuels will be critical,because alternative green technologies like fuel cell or electric ships and aeroplanes are still very nascent and yet to be proven at scale.The aviation sectors primary energy input today is jet fuel,cont

226、ributing to the sectors emissions of 4Mt.Increasing the blending of SAF with jet fuel will be key to decarbonising the sector,but blends of 25%100%could come at cost premiums of 1.72.1 times the current price of jet fuel(see Figure 8).Similarly,the decarbonisation of local shipping in South Africa w

227、ill require the greening of marine gas oil with a role for e-methanol and/or e-ammonia.These green fuels cost 2.12.5 times the cost of marine gas oil today(see Figure9).29CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORFigure 9:Evolution of e-fuel cost in the South African shipping sector

228、through to 2050In shipping,e-ammonia and e-methanol are used,costing by 2050 up to 2.1X and 2.5X the cost of marine gas oil todayE-ammonia and e-methanol expected to drop by 2050,but still offered at a premium up to 2.5xUse of a 50%quota of low-carbon fuel would result in a 15%25%increase in South A

229、frican shipping costsLow cost scenarioHigh cost scenarioE-ammonia is expected to cost up to 2.1 times more than fossil-fuel based methanol,even by 2050.On average US$570 per container shipped from SA to UK goes to fuel costs,due to high trade-weighted distance.However,with a 50%low-carbon fuel quota

230、 fuel costs increase to US$880US$1 000,resulting in a US$310US$430 premium.Assuming the average cost of shipping a car container is US$3 700,using 50%e-fuels would drive up shipping costs by 1525%.Fossil fuel-based methanolE-methanoltoday(DAC)E-methanoltoday(BECCS)E-methanol2030E-methanol20502.5X250

231、2 4001 6001 370630Price in US$/T203020402050203020402050E-METHANOLE-AMMONIAFuel price projections in$/GJ8551001 200800560250736352473930Notes:The analysis accounts for neither carbon tax nor green subsidies.This is a comparison at 2050,and therefore takes into consideration learning rates

232、 of green technologies.1.Direct air capture.2.Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.3.Cost difference between scenarios largely driven by uncertainties(and geographical differences)on costs for renewable energy,electrolysis and CO2 capture.Source:DNV GL,IRENA,Lloyds Register Methanol institute,T

233、NO report,UMAS,NBI-BCG project team.Across all transport modes,as a result of the change in demand and shift towards ZEVs and greener fuels,the demand for conventional liquid fuels reduces from 960PJ in 2019 to less than 530 PJ in 2050(Figure 10).The fossil fuels are substituted mainly with electric

234、ity for passenger and light-freight road transport and rail transport,hydrogen for heavy-freight and e-kerosene/sustainable aviation fuel for aviation.Although this is not nearly enough to achieve a net-zero trajectory,it does imply significant change for the fossil fuels production and distribution

235、 sector in South Africa,where,even in a base case scenario,a 50%reduction in conventional fuel demand can be a reality.The decarbonisation of the power supply will be critical to mitigating the indirect road and rail emissions,especially as electricity accounts for a growing share of the energy dema

236、nd.Based on the carbon intensity of South Africas power grid today,the indirect emission factor for BEVs vs.fossil fuel alternatives are significantly higher as shown in Table 1.Table 1:Emissions factorsEmissions intensityBEV equivalent (g CO2/km)Petrol/Diesel equivalent (g CO2/km)Passenger Vehicles

237、154136Heavy-freight814230Rail 6030 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAFigure 10:Evolution of South African energy demand in the transport sector driven by global trendsIncludes max 15 PJ of gas959854877846855819811816Energy demand in PJBASE CASE(Reference Technology Scenario

238、RTS)BASE CASE(Sustainable Development Scenario SDS)200302035204020452050959858270865020030203520402045205094784906778709659554582147152Liquid fossil fuelsSustainable liquid fuelsHydrogenElectricityNote:Liquid fossil fuels refers to co

239、nventional diesel,petrol,LNG and jet-kerosene;Sustainable liquid fuels or sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)refers to synthetic jet-kerosene;Excluding international aviation energy demand.Source:eNatis;ICCT;IEA;IHS Markit;Marklines;NAAMSA;BCG battery model;NBI-BCG project team.As such,if the power secto

240、r is not decarbonised,the road and rail sectors indirect emissions could reach 32 Mt and 8 Mt per annum respectively in 2050,equivalent to40%50%of the direct emissions in 2050 and 80%of transport sector direct emissions today.Without a deliberate and coordinated local effort,South Africas transport

241、sector will be on a trajectory that is inconsistent with the countrys NDC by 2030 and inconsistent with net-zero by2050.While the global trends outlined above yield significant emissions reductions of 40%50%by 2050,the emissions reductions in the next 1015 years are relatively negligible,at only aro

242、und 10%.For reference,hitting the lower end of South Africas NDC commitment will require a 30%reduction in emissions across the economy.Therefore,without deliberate and coordinated local policy,South Africas transport sector could be on a trajectory that is inconsistent with the NDC by 2030 and with

243、 net-zero by2050.Furthermore,there is a risk that the local automotive manufacturing sector for passenger and commercial vehicles will collapse as it gets out of sync with key export markets.Approximately 60%of local vehicle production is exported,of which 60%is European markets.Many European nation

244、s have already committed to significant EV targets by as early as 2030,as shown in Figure 11.As the export markets accelerate the shift to ZEVs,if South Africa lags,Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs)will not be able to export locally manufactured goods and therefore will be unable to continue op

245、erations based on local demand alone.To ensure a continuation of automotive manufacturing operations in South Africa,OEMs will need to convert/invest in production lines for ZEVs.However,the business case for local manufacturing of ZEVs hinges on a significant local demand market which today does no

246、t exist and will be nowhere near the scale required by 2030 in a base case scenario.The decarbonisation of South Africas transport sector will be influenced and driven by four key factors the first two are largely impacted by global factors and the third and fourth by local choices.1.Technology matu

247、rity and consumer preferences:The cost competitiveness of green technologies globally and the emerging consumer preferences.2.Exogenous variables:Global transport and logistics standards as well as international bans and regulations.3.Power sector evolution:Loadshedding(rolling power cuts)experience

248、d since the late 2000s have a significant 31CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORimpact on consumer willingness to shift to EVs.Additionally,at the current grid emissions factors,the electric vehicles will have greater emissions than current combustion vehicles.4.Policy choices:

249、Local incentive schemes,bans and regulations and national budget allocations.The road transport sector will be heavily impacted by the global factors in(1)and(2)above,global technology maturity,international transport,and logistic standards,and bans and regulations,with the other modes,like rail,inf

250、luenced almost entirely by local policy and action.A range of low-carbon transport technologies with varying degrees of maturity will impact each of these modes of transport globally and in South Africa(see Figure 12).This analysis focuses on the more mature,proven technologies across modes:The asse

251、ssment of the passenger and freight road transport sector focuses on the technology shift from ICE vehicles to BEVs,xHEVs and FCEVs.The analysis also considers the role of sustainable,zero-emissions fuels like e-diesel.The rail transport sector assessment focuses on the shift from diesel and electri

252、c trains to electric,high speed,and autonomous trains.The assessment of the local aviation and shipping sectors assesses the impact of green fuel,like SAF,also known as e-kerosene,and e-methanol and e-ammonia.Regulatory develpment move at a different pace across regions:EU and UK are leading,USA and

253、 China are following in most dimensionsEUUKUSCHINAAuto standards/air quality Euro 6c No ICE registrations for cars and vans after 2035 Euro 6c No new sales of gasoline,diesel,or MHEV after 2030;no sales of HEV and PHEV after 2035 EPA 2010 No nationwide bans on ICE registration;California to ban non-

254、ZEVs registrations after 2035 China 6a No new sales of gasoline,diesel or MHEV after 2030;no sales of HEV and PHEV after 2035Carbon pricing Domestic carbon pricing(ETS)Domestic carbon pricing(ETS)like EU No carbon pricing,providing tax incentives instead Limited domestic carbon pricingSupply chain t

255、ransparency Supply chain Due Diligence regulation Ban imports produced by forced labour Ban imports produced by forced labour N/ATrade barrier Cross-border carbon pricing(CBAM)(expected)Deteriorating UK-EU trade relationships Deteriorating UK-EU trade relationships US-China trade war US-export bans

256、on critical next-generation technologies China for China policies Export restrictions US-china trade warFuel cells Target to reach 3.7mn FCEV by 2030 Subsidies for purchase of FCEV and installation of HRS 16 trucks Lower VAT(17.5%to 5%)for micro-CHP purchase Regional FCEV target in California:1 mn b

257、y 2030 Subsidies for purchase and installation of HRS Target to reach 1mn FCEV before 2030 Subsidies for purchase of FCEVFigure 11:Overview of ZEV commitments abroad32 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA Deep dive on the decarbonisation of transport in South AfricaCase study

258、1:Unlocking South Africas electric vehicle marketWhat is required to scale-up demand for EVs in South Africa?As South Africa has a coal-intensive electricity grid,together with load-shedding,the key requirement is for supporting energy infrastructure that is energy resilient and low-carbon.The uYilo

259、 smart grid ecosystem project initiated in 2015 directly addresses these through the following:Solar arrays for energy generation Energy storage through re-purposed electric vehicle batteries in second life,embracing the circular economy Autonomous local energy management systems for solar-storage-g

260、rid optimisation and load levelling Network of AC and DC fast chargers Grid ancillary services from electric vehicles through vehicle-to-gridAs Africas largest dedicated and most technologically advanced electric vehicle charging hub,the project serves as the test bed for technology innovation,susta

261、inable business models and market benchmark for the energy and mobility sectors.A broader challenge in market development is bridging the gap on capacity development on the electric vehicle ecosystem.The national Green Transport Strategy highlights the specific sustainable development need of educat

262、ing and stimulating awareness to accelerate behavioural change.The Shifting the Transport Paradigm of South Africa project under the South Africa-UK PACT country programme being delivered by uYilo has been providing technical assistance to key organisations and decision-makers for sustainable climat

263、e actions on electric road transport,charging infrastructure,and international bestpractices.As all vehicle manufacturers transition their products into electric vehicles,South Africa will become a market for electric vehicle model introductions to achieve alignment to the National Development Plan

264、milestones for transport.What is being done today to move the needle towards scaling-up EVs in the country?South Africas current aspirations for electric vehicles are guided by:Signatory to Paris Agreement adopted in 2015.National Development Plan:Transition to low-carbon economy.Green Transport Str

265、ategy:Strategic Pillar 8:promotion of hybrid and electric vehicles.Policy instruments:Environmental CO2 levy:Penalise the buyers of vehicles with high CO2 emissions.Fuel levy:The levy raises the cost of petrol and diesel at the pump and thereby effectively promotes greener alternatives.Fuel economy

266、and CO2-labelling:The measure allows consumers to make model-to-model comparisons with regards to fuel economy and CO2 emissions of different cars and should promote greener transport.Carbon tax:Gives effect to the polluter-pays-principle which helps to ensure that consumers take on negative adverse

267、 costs of driving CO2e-emitting vehicles.This is typically based on a cost per km structure for each class of vehicles.National standards:Requirements for electric power train.Conducive rates for domestic,industrial,commercial,and public access charging stations (AC and DC).National Road Traffic Act

268、.National Road Traffic Regulations.33CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORPhoto:Shutterstock34 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAFigure 12:Maturity of global transport trends todayROADICE vehicles&diesel/petrolHybrid EVs+diesel/petrol/electrical(e.g.MHEV

269、,HEV,PHEV)Battery EVs+electricityMicro-mobility(e.g.light modes,E-bikes,e-scooters)Shared vehicles(e.g.car sharing,ride hailing/pooling)RAILConventional rail+dieselElectric rail(intra-city and inter-city/province)+electricityElectric rail(intra-city and inter-city/province)+electricityHigh speed ele

270、ctric rail+electricityAIRConventional air+jet fuelN/ASEAICE engine+Marine gas-oilN/AScaled-up/stand-aloneIndustrial scale needing supportProven but not yet scaledPassenger transportFreight transportMATURITY OF GLOBAL TRANSPORT TRENDSStatus quoThe impact of technology maturity and consumer preference

271、sThe technologies available to decarbonise each class of road vehicles vary in maturity,and therefore,cost competitiveness.The pace of decarbonisation will,as a result,vary across these vehicle classes and modes.The five-year Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)is used to compare the total costs of conventi

272、onal ICE vehicles to lower-carbon LNG vehicles and more disruptive ZEVs like BEVs and FCEVs over five-year periods(see Deep dive:Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)assessment of different vehicle classes for road transport,on page 36).Note that typical freight ownership contracts are 23 years,which is less

273、 than the 5-year TCO period accounted for in the analysis.Therefore,innovative financial solutions will be required to address this gap,i.e.absorb the premium in a shorter time-frame using development finance for example.Most green technologies to decarbonise road transport are projected to become e

274、conomically viable in South Africa in the next 210 years,but there are nuances across the classes of vehicles.However,it is important to note that cost parity on a TCO basis alone will not see widespread adoption of ZEVs.This will need to be supported by the rollout of charging and refueling infrast

275、ructure,a reliable electricity supply,and a selection of ZEVs for consumers to choose from,as well as lowering the upfront cost of ZEVs.35CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORICE vehicles+CNGICE vehicles+biodieselFuel cell EVs+H2ICE vehicles+e-dieselAutonomous vehicles(e.g.deliv

276、ery robots,robo taxis)Autonomous trainsHyperloopMaglevConventional air+bio-based SAF(e.g.HEFA,AtJ)Conventional air+PtL synthetic fuel(e.g.e-kerosene)Fuel cell air+Green H2Hybrid&full electric air(e.g.battery/H2/solar-powered)Urban aerial mobility(e.g.delivery drones,eVTOLs,flying cars)ICE engine+bio

277、diesel/synthetic dieselAdapted ICE engine+biomethaneAdapted ICE engine+synthetic gasAdapted ICE engine+e-methanolAdapted ICE engine+e-ammoniaFuel cell engine+Green H2Electric shipping(e.g.battery electric,nuclear powered)Note:Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEV),hybrid electric vehicles(HEV)and mi

278、ld hybrid electric vehicles(MHEV).Source:IGUA Annual Report 2020,NBI-BCG project team.36 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA Deep dive:Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)assessment of different vehicle classes for road transportThe evolution of TCO,reflecting predominantly global te

279、chnology trends and global regulation and standards,is assessed for each vehicle class.For passenger vehicle classes,light private vehicles and MBTs,the TCO is assessed on a total cost basis(i.e.in ZAR)and for light-to heavy-freight vehicles,the TCO is measured on a cost per kilometre basis.The TCO

280、includes the costs of green fuels(fossil,electricity,green H2,etc.)in addition to capital expenditure.FindingsLight passenger vehicles(see Figure 13)In the absence of any import tariffs and local manufacturing,BEVs could reach cost parity with light ICE passenger vehicles as early as 20232025 in Sou

281、th Africa with a five-year TCO of ZAR500k.Equal import tariffs on ICE vehicles and BEVs(18%)could push this out to 20242025,or in a worst-case scenario,where import tariffs remain at current levels(18%ICE vehicles,25%BEVs),this could push out to as late as 20292031.This finding crystalises the need

282、for enabling policy,such as enabling import tariffs,that do not inhibit the the cost competitiveness of ZEVs,to decarbonise the road transport sector.MBTs(see Figure 14)Similarly,in the absence of any import tariffs,BEVs could reach cost parity with ICE MBTs as early as 20252027 in South Africa with

283、 five-year TCO of ZAR800k.Equal import tariffs on ICE vehicles and BEVs(12%)could push this out to 20272029,or in a worst-case scenario where import tariffs remain at current levels(12%ICE vehicles,20%BEVs),this could push out to as late as 20302032.Figure 13:TCO evolution for light passenger vehicl

284、esLight passenger BEV Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)is increasingly competitive in South Africa.4007507006505004505506008002003020352023202540075070065050045055060080020030203520242025400750700650500450550600800200302035202920310%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)18%import tariff

285、s(ICE&EVs)18%tariffs on ICE&25%on EVsFive-year TCO for passenger cars*(ZAR k)PetrolDieselBEVBEV/ICE break-even pointNotes:Assumes BEV pouch/prismatic cells.1.Includes B,C,D,and SUV segments.2.18%=25%7%discount for EU.3.40%for BEVs=25%+15%luxury tariff in line with tariffs today.Source:NBI-BCG projec

286、t team.37CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORLight-freight vehicles(see Figure 15)In the absence of any import tariffs and local manufacturing,BEVs could reach cost parity with light-freight ICE vehicles as early as 20232025 in South Africa,similar to passenger transport.Equal

287、import tariffs on ICE vehicles and BEVs(12%)could push this out to 20242026,or in a worst-case scenario where import tariffs remain at current levels(12%ICE vehicles,20%BEVs),this could push out to as late as 20272028.Figure 14:TCO evolution for minibus taxis5001 0009008006001 1001 3001 5007001 2001

288、 4001 6001 700200302035202520275001 0009008006001 1001 3001 5007001 2001 4001 6001 70020030203520302032BEV more economicalICE vehicles more economical0%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)5001 0009008006001 1001 3001 5007001 2001 4001 6001 7002003020352027202912%import tariffs(IC

289、E&EVs)12%tariffs on ICE&20%on EVs5-year TCO for Minibus taxis(ZAR k)PetrolDieselBEVBEV/ICE break-even pointNote:Assumes BEV pouch/prismatic cells.Source:NBI-BCG project team.Figure 15:TCO evolution for light-freight vehicles0.000.150.140.130.120.160.170.180.000.150.140.130.120.160.170.030

290、20202025203020232025202720280%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)0.000.150.140.130.120.160.170.0302024202612%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)12%tariffs on ICE&20%on EVsTotal cost of ownership on LCV$/kmICE vehicleBEVBEV/ICE break-even pointNote:LCV light commercial vehicles;FCEVs not considered for LCV due to

291、 lack of competitiveness in the shown period.Source:Desktop search,Eskom,BCG Battery forecast,NBI-BCG project team.38 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICA Across American,European and Chinese benchmarks BEVs are expected to account for the largest share of sales of light-freig

292、ht vehicles by 2030 for inner-city and inter-city delivery.Heavy freight vehicles(see Figure 16)In the absence of any import tariffs and local manufacturing,FCEVs could reach cost parity with heavy-freight ICE vehicles by 2030 at the earliest.Equal import tariffs on ICE vehicles and BEVs(12%)would h

293、ave little extra impact,or in a worst-case scenario where import tariffs remain at current levels(12%ICE vehicles,20%BEVs),this could push out to as late as 20312033.There is variability on the share of FCEVs relative to LNG trucks in the share of new heavy-freight vehicle sales by 2030 across Ameri

294、ca,Europe and China.In America,LNG trucks have the largest share in sales across medium-to heavy-freight vehicles for intercity deliveries and long-haul transport.In Europe,there is a more even split between LNG vehicles and FCEVs for heavy-freight,while in China FCEVs clearly dominate the sales.The

295、se benchmarks reiterate the need for enabling policy,beyond the technology evolution,to promote decarbonisation and support local value chains.For heavy-freight vehicles,the evolution of BEVs relative to FCEVs is a key signpost to monitor,given the uncertainty on whether BEVs can for example overcom

296、e charging and range limitations.Key assumptions The effect of inflation is not accounted for.The analysis only reflects functional changes in prices of commodities,vehicle purchases,etc.The cost and size of batteries will continue to decrease with a 50%reduction in prices from a 2020 base level rea

297、ched by the end of the decade.The adoption of powertrains follows the technology adoption curve,based on global benchmarks across developed and developing markets.Consumers will start to adopt EVs when the ICE-EV TCO parity point is reached,where the TCO of a BEV is equal to that of an ICE vehicle.S

298、teady-state adoption of EVs in South Africa will favour ZEVs(BEVs and FCEVs)instead of hybrid vehicles,with global bans on HEVs projected to influence OEM decisions.The adoption of diesel vehicles after the parity point is reached will follow an exponential reduction,due to diesel ICE vehicles being

299、 more expensive than petrol ICE vehicles.Figure 16:TCO evolution for heavy-freight vehicles0%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)Total cost of ownership on HCV US$/km00.50.40.30.20.11.00.90.80.70.62.52.42.32.22.12.02020202520302035204020302032ICEFCEVCNGFC/ICE break-even point12%import tariffs(ICE&EVs)00.50.40.30

300、.20.11.00.90.80.70.62.52.42.32.22.12.0202020252030203520402030203212%tariffs on ICE&20%on EVs00.50.40.30.20.11.00.90.80.70.62.52.42.32.22.12.02020202520302035204020312033Notes:HCV heavy commercial vehicles;BEVs not considered for HCVs as they are considered not competitive due to range issues within

301、 the shownperiod.1.Assuming 20%8%discount for EU imports.2.20%assuming no discounts on BEVs in line with tariffs today.Source:Desktop search,Toyota,NBI-BCG project team.39CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSPORT SECTORThe cost competitiveness of technologies will not be the only driver of

302、 the decarbonisation of the road vehicle parc.In fact,the majority of consumers in the passenger vehicle market today do not make a purchase decision based on TCO at all,but consider other factors,like upfront capital costs,charge time and availability of charging infrastructure,as well as the varie

303、ty/range of vehicles available.The uptake of BEVs for passenger modes will therefore be heavily influenced by the availability of financing options for ZEVs that lower the upfront capital costs to the consumer(e.g.via leases),the large-scale roll-out of charging infrastructure,an uptake of a broad r

304、ange of ZEV options in vehicle showrooms and of course a stable,and affordable power supply.Therefore,there is likely to be a lag between cost competitiveness and adoption of ZEVs(which is accounted for in the penetration rates used to model the change in car parc over time).These factors also reinf

305、orce the critical role that local policy can play in addressing the slow uptake of ZEVs due to consumer preferences.Photo:Shutterstock40 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICAToday,South Africa has a broad urban sprawl that creates mobility constraints,but smart spatial planning

306、 can change this.IllustrativeJohannesburgs dispersed urban sprawl today driven by the legacy or spatial apartheid.In the future,South Africa must develop cities that enable just,efficient and sustainable mobility,modelled on global benchmarks.JohannesburgLegacy of spatial apartheid,where large dista

307、nces separate development and residential nodes with a widening city outskirt.Long commute routes involving multiple,indirect transport nodes that inroduce cost and time inefficiencies while limiting the viability of non-motorised mobility.One-directional commuter flow(outskirts to CBD in the mornin

308、g,and vice versa in the evenings)inhibits the possibility of building efficient and cost-effective public transport.Peak density:42 398 pp/km2Mexico City Moderate population density with major development hubs located close to residential areas but growing city outskirt.Second largest metro rail sys

309、tem in North America with 6 mn riders,20%more than capacity.Still congestion a major concern driven by inadequate public transport capacity(20 mn population).Hong KongHigh polulation density with residential and development nodes in the same area.Short commutes facilitated by an integrated multi-mod

310、al transport system.Peak density:49 088 pp/km2Peak density:111 065 pp/km2Figure 17:Urban sprawl of South AfricaSource:LSE Cities,WRI,Press reports,NBI-BCG project team.3.1.3 WHAT NET-ZERO PATHWAYS EXIST FOR SOUTH AFRICAS TRANSPORT SECTOR?This section is structured along two sub-chapters:1.The net-ze

311、ro levers required to fully decarbonise South Africas transport sector.2.A net-zero pathway for South Africas transport sector:the key outcomes and milestones of selected combinations of the levers.Net-zero levers to fully decarbonise the sector by 2050With the right support,the transport sector can

312、 be fully decarbonised by 2050 via four key levers:Improved spatial planning;Mode-shift to rail and public transport;Accelerated zero-emission technology adoption,coupled with the decarbonisation of the nationalgrid;and Use of green fuels for hard-to-abate aviation and shippingOne of the most effect

313、ive ways of charting a course to net-zero for the transport sector is improved spatial planning.This refers to intelligent design of cities and transport infrastructure such that the total number of passenger-kilometres and cargo-kilometres travelled are minimised.This includes densification of urba

314、n areas to enable efficient public transport and building walkable or 20-minute cities.For example,population density in Johannesburg today is highly dispersed(see Figure 17)primarily due to the legacy of spatial apartheid,and can be characterised as an urban sprawl.Shifting to higher population den

315、sity cities with smartly design transport corridors will minimise the number of people-movements and cargo-movements required.This will be the most impactful lever to sustainably meet demand and effectively decarbonise transport.However,a significant piece of analysis is required to determine what S

316、outh Africas optimal spatial planning design looks like taking into consideration(to name but a few major factors these are non-exhaustive):1)the impact of the physical risk of climate change and adaptation required;2)the evolution of trade flows and 41CHAPTER 6:DECARBONISING THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANS

317、PORT SECTOReconomic activity across the major hubs;3)the future of work,how long-the work-from-anywhere culture will persist,and to what extent.Apart from improved spatial planning and minimising transport demand,fully decarbonising South Africas transport sector will require local action along thre

318、e key net-zero levers,each with techno-and socio-economic trade-offs(see Figure 18).1.Modal shift(shifting road to rail):Addresses the broader structural inefficiencies in the sector.Shifting inefficient road transport,with high levels of road congestion,to more efficient rail transport,could increa

319、se the accessibility of public transport,by improving affordability,as rail transport is 30%50%cheaper per passenger than MBTs.However,South Africas current rail infrastructure is insufficient to meet this additional demand for rail(many trains are cancelled daily due to infrastructure and operation

320、al bottlenecks).Developing new rail infrastructure is highly capital intensive,requiring investments of at least ZAR300 bn,and given the countrys constrained balance of payments,will need to be carefully managed and strategically prioritised.Public-private partnerships could help in addressing the s

321、ignificant investment needed to address South Africas rail network challenges.In addition,the corresponding impact to the 430k jobs linked to the MBT industry and 260k jobs linked to the freight sector would need to be carefully managed.2.Technology shift(shifting to zero-emissions vehicles ZEVs):Is

322、 critical to address the lag between technology maturity and adoption to decarbonise road transport.BEVs are up to 70%cheaper to operate than ICE vehicles,due to higher efficiency,lower electricity costs relative to petrol and diesel,and lower maintenance costs.To reach 100%ZEV adoption by 2050,up t

323、o ZAR100 bn in EV charging infrastructure could be required.A comprehensive suite of private action and Modal shiftTechnology shiftFuel greeningECONOMIC AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTInfrastructure investmentat least ZAR300 bn to expand rail along major corridorsat least ZAR100 bn for 1.4 mn EV public c

324、harging unitsZAR60 bnfor 0.8 mn public charging unitsImpact on transport cost 30%50%ZAR/passenger decrease for public transport(MBT versus BRT)70%*decline in annual vehicle OPEX(100k/annum for minibus taxis)1.6X2.1X increase in fuel cost*Impact on adjacent industries 3 bn L/a residual liquid fossil

325、fuel demand Cement/steel demand 1 bn L/a residual liquid fossil fuel demand 1.2 Mt/a Green H2 demand 1 bn L/a residual liquid fossil fuel demand*Up to 15 bn L/a Green fuel demandSOCIAL DEVELOPMENTTax revenue losses ZAR700 bn in cumulative fuel tax losses 74%of annual revenue to drop by 2050 ZAR1 000

326、 bn in cumulative fuel tax losses 95%of annual revenue to drop by 2050 ZAR600 bn in cumulative fuel tax losses 55%of annual revenue to drop by 2050Ability to address current challenges Broader transport access Improved efficiency mitigates road congestion Reduced road wear and tear No major changes

327、in structure Cheaper costs improve access to mobility No improvementFigure 18:Key trade-offs across the three core decarbonisation leversNotes:*Based on ICE MBT OPEX of 130 k ZAR/annum to BEV MBT OPEX of 30 k ZAR/annum.*The cost of e-kerosene produced in the MENA region using the Fischer-Tropsch pro

328、cess used to find a premium compared to the average kerosene price between 2010 and 2019.The range is associated with use of PEM or SOEC electrolysis and DAC versus point-source capture for CO2 supply.*This will improve balance of payments due to lower crude oil importsSource:IGUA Annual Report 2020

329、,NBI-BCG project team.42 JUST TRANSITION AND CLIMATE PATHWAYS STUDY FOR SOUTH AFRICApolicies,ranging from emissions standards to sales restrictions and credit programmes,will be required to fully implement this lever.3.Fuel greening(replacement of fossil fuels):This is necessary to mitigate the emis

330、sions from the remaining combustion of fossil fuels,by replacing these fossil fuels with lower-and zero-emission alternatives.This refers only to heavy trucking,aviation,and shipping the other transport categories are electrified.Zero-emission fuels are operationally expensive,unlike the other two l

331、evers,with a fuel premium of up to 2.1X for e-ammonia,2.5X for e-methanol,and 1.7X2.1X for SAF.These green fuels will be critical for the hard-to-abate aviation and shipping modes,where limited alternatives exist,and will require clear phase-in targets to accompany fossil fuel phase-out targets.A ne

332、t-zero pathway requires shifting 15%20%of road traffic to rail,banning new ICE vehicle sales by 2035 and enabling ZEV uptake for remaining road transport,as well as blending to 100%sustainable aviation fuels by 2050.A net-zero pathway for South Africas transport sector,the key outcomes and milestone

333、sIn addition to improved spatial planning,South Africas path to a net-zero transport sector by 2050 will require action along all three levers.By order of priority,South Africa should first shift aviation and road demand to more efficient,low-carbon rail modes,leveraging existing and new infrastructure.The uptake of ZEVs for the remaining road transport should then be accelerated with ICE vehicle