1、FEBRUARY 2023THE IMPACT OF HMC SCHOOLS ON THE UK ECONOMY1The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyTABLE OF CONTENTSFEBRUARY 2023Foreword by HMC 2Executive summary 41.Introduction 101.1 Introduction to HMC and the UK independent schools sector 101.2 Scope of the study 121.3 Introduction to economic

2、 impact assessment 131.4 Additional economic and social benefits of HMC and independent schools 141.5 Structure of the report 142.The economic footprint of HMC and independent schools 182.1 The economic footprint:key findings 182.2 The schools income,costs,and direct GVA 192.3 Direct employment and

3、staff remuneration 212.4 Direct tax impacts 222.5 The pattern of procurement and indirect economic impacts 222.6 Induced economic impacts 242.7 Total economic footprint in detail 253.Savings to the taxpayer 283.1 Savings to the taxpayer:key findings 283.2 HMC and independent school pupils entitled t

4、o a UK state school place 283.4 Taxpayer savings due to recurrent school spending 303.5 Taxpayer savings due to capital outlays 313.6 Potential additional taxpayer savings 324.The impact of Covid-19 and Brexit 364.1 The impact of Covid-19 and Brexit:key findings 364.2 Quantifying GVA shortfalls in a

5、ctivity in 2021 374.3 Possible drivers of the GVA shortfalls 394.4 Shortfalls in the schools employment impacts in 2021 415.Environmental impacts 445.1 The Greenhouse gas emissions footprint:key findings 465.2 HMC schools own Scope 1 impact 475.3 The Scope 2 impact of HMCs energy use 505.4 The globa

6、l Scope 3 impact of HMCs non-energy purchases 535.5 Total GHG emissions and energy use in detail 54Appendix 1:Results tables 58Appendix 2:Methodology 662The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFOREWORD BY HMCSince its inception in 1869,the Heads Conference(HMC)has existed to provide support and a

7、ssistance to members and their schools in their provision of an essential service:the education of our future generations.This work continues today as HMC works with some 354 schools in the British Isles and 44 overseaseach providing a fantastic all-round education,extensive extracurricular programm

8、es and high-quality pastoral support.HMC exists to:help members and support their schools;promote and protect HMC schools independence;encourage and share innovation in HMC schools and more widely;promote the discussion of national and international educational issues;and influence policy and public

9、 opinion with regard to the independent sector.HMCs strength lies in the diversity of its membership.The association includes boarding and day schools;single sex,co-educational and diamond schools,schools that are fully independent as well as grammar and state-funded schools in Northern Ireland.In a

10、ddition,there is a blossoming group of international schools located across the globe,from Shanghai to Sao Paulo.HMC schools have always been significant contributors to their local and regional economies,and they build upon the social and cultural values of their communities.This report goes a long

11、 way to identify the scope,range and impact of those contributions.Due to the inconsistency of available data,this report only considers the economic and social impact of HMC schools in England,Wales and Scotland.The snapshot it provides,whilst impressive,is merely a proportion of the impact of HMC

12、as a whole.HMC schools impact on the UK economy is highly significant:supporting tens of thousands of jobs,pumping billions into the economy and contributing significant sums in taxation.The schools work in helping to educate the next generation of thinkers,activists,sports stars,artists and others

13、is hard to calculate,but no less significant.The report also highlights how HMC schools are reducing their reliance on fossil fuels at a faster rate than many other sectors,and are in turn investing in greener sources of energy.Inevitably this report is limited in showing only HMCs pastthe impact th

14、e organisation has had to date.It says nothing of our schools impact on future generations of young people,future contributions to the UK economy,future contributions to cultural capital and Brand Britain.As HMC continues to develop,our schools will continue to grow and diversify.As we share ideas,i

15、nnovate and partner schools in the UK and across the world,we hope to leverage our substantial educational capital to the benefit of all.3The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy4The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyEXECUTIVE SUMMARYHMC schools make a significant contribution to the nationa

16、l economy,and to their local economies and communities.In 2021,according to independent economic analysis as set out in this report:HMC schools made a 7.3 billion contribution to the UK economy.That is equivalent to 0.4%of total UK GDP in that year,and to the total economic activity generated in a c

17、ity the size of Derby.The activities of HMC schools also have a significant impact on UK employment.In 2021,they supported more than 142,000 jobs across the country,equivalent to the total population of Preston.HMC schools also generated 2.2 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer.That is suffi

18、cient to fund the salaries of nearly 60,000 full-time nurses.1 The term“HMC schools”used in this report should be seen as shorthand for“schools whose head teachers are members of HMC”.2 GVA is the standard measure of economic production for a business,industry,or sector,and(as explained in Chapter 1

19、)is a similar concept to gross domestic product(GDP).Scaling the results up to all independent schools across the UK,we estimate their total economic footprint to have been 16.5billion,associated with over 328,000 jobsequivalent to the population of Nottinghamand 5.1 billion in tax revenues.The stud

20、y also found that independent schools saved the taxpayer 4.4 billion in 2021 by providing places for pupils who could otherwise be expected to take up a place in the state-funded sector.The HMC schools share of that total is 1.8 billion.This study investigated the impact of HMC schools1,and that of

21、the independent schools sector more widely,on the UK economy in 2021.It considers the economic activity taking place in the schools,and the activity supported right across the economy by the schools spending on goods,services,capital projects,and salaries.It also considers the effect of Covid-19 and

22、 Brexit on HMC schools economic impact in 2021,and analyses their impact on the environment in recent years.ECONOMIC FOOTPRINTThe 7.3 billion total contribution to the“gross value added”measure of UK production(GVA)is made up of three elements.2 The direct GVA impact reflects the value of the work u

23、ndertaken by HMC schools own teaching and support staff,as reflected in the cost of employing them,and the financial surpluses generated as a result,in order to cover the schools capital costs.This amounted to 3.6billion.But the schools impact on the UK economy does not end there.They purchase goods

24、 and services from third parties,often in their local area,including construction companies,IT support service providers,school equipment suppliers,contract catering firms,and self-employed music and sports instructors,amongst many others.This generates GVA for those businesses,and for their supplie

25、rs in turn,and this so-called“indirect GVA impact”is estimated at 0.9 billion in 2021.7.3 billionHMC schools contribution to UK production(GVA)in 2021,taking the knock-on impact of spending on goods,services,and salaries intoaccount.This supported 142,240 jobs,and 2.2 billion intaxes.4.4 billionSavi

26、ngs to the UK taxpayer as a result of pupils attending an independent school,instead of taking up a state-funded schoolplace.HMC schools share of that total is 1.8 billion.5The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFurthermore,the schools teachers and support staff,and workers in their supply chain

27、,will spend their take-home pay in shops,restaurants,and leisure outlets,and on utilities and household services,supporting further production in the UK consumer economy.This so-called“induced GVA impact”is estimated to have contributed a further 2.8 billion to the total economic footprint in 2021.A

28、ltogether,this means that,for every 100 million of GVA generated directly by HMC schools,an extra 104 million is supported by supply chain links and salary-funded expenditure.As the total GVA impact is,therefore,just over twice the direct GVA impact alone,the GVA multiplier is just over two.The 142,

29、240 jobs supported by HMC schools across the countryinclude:75,660 teachers and support staff directly employed by the schools themselves;16,560 indirect jobs in the supply chain,supported by their procurement of goods and services from third party businesses;and 50,020 induced jobs supported in the

30、 UK consumer economy,by the salary-funded spending of school and supply chain staff.The 2.2 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer was made up of:Some 1.0 billion in direct taxes,paid by HMC schools themselves,and by their staff on their salaries;Another 0.2 billion of indirect taxation collec

31、ted along the schools supply chain;and 1.0 billion of induced taxation generated by the salary-funded spending of employees.SAVINGS FOR THE TAXPAYERIf independent school pupils took up the state school places to which they were entitled instead,then the British taxpayer would have to bear significan

32、t extra costs.We estimate that independent schools save the British taxpayer at least 4.4 billion annually.The share of HMC schools in this saving is 1.8 billion.This calculation considers teaching and other recurrent costs in the UK state school sector,plus capital costs associated with the use of

33、land,construction of school buildings,and property maintenance.But it excludes central administrative costs,and is therefore likely to slightly understate the full amount of the saving.THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXITThe GVA and employment impacts of HMC schools in 2021 fell short of the levels tha

34、t would have prevailed had the pre-2020“trend”growth rates continued,by an estimated 8%and 6%respectively.This was primarily driven by an 8%shortfall in average fees per pupil,estimated on the same basis.This in turn was directly associated with Covid-19-related fee discounts,allowing us to conclude

35、 that Covid-19 was the dominant cause of the GVA and employment“losses”.By contrast,recent trends in pupil numbers by nationality suggest that any short-term“Brexit effect”was very limited.However,it does not necessarily follow that there will be no significant impact in the long-termif,for example,

36、changes in visa arrangements resulted in EU pupil numbers growing at a slower pace than otherwise.8%Shortfall in economic output in 2021,mainly due to the impact of Covid-19 on HMC school activity and parents finances.6The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSThe study also es

37、timates the environmental impact of HMC schools.In 2021,HMC schools total greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions amounted to 437,000 tonnes,in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2e),taking their own activity and that of their global supply chain into account.The impact in the UK alone was 294,000 tonnes,or

38、0.07%of total UK emissions.This is around one-third of the 0.21%share of HMC schools and their supply chain in total UK GVA,indicating that the schools are greener than the average UK sector,in terms of GHG emissions relative to each unit of economic activity supported(a measure of“emissions intensi

39、ty”).The emissions intensity of HMC schools fell by a significant 28%between 2015 and 2021.Although these modelled trends are driven by an assumption that emissions moved in line with those of the wider education sector,this is indeed likely to have been the case,given the examples of environmentall

40、y-friendly initiatives carried out by the schools and reported in this study.3 Some HMC members lead groups of schools.ABOUT HMC HMC is a professional association of heads of some of the worlds leading independent schools,and is one of seven bodies affiliated to the Independent Schools Council(ISC).

41、In early 2022,298 individuals were full HMC members,leading 354 schools across the UK,Channel Islands and Isle of Man.3 These schools educated some 273,000 pupils,accounting for 50%of all pupils being educated at schools connected to the ISC.0.07%HMC schools share of all carbon emissions across the

42、UK in 2021just one third of HMC schools share of national economic production.7The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2,559 schools621,330 pupils344 schools264,579 pupilsWider contribution to the economy,society,and state-funded education16.5 bn7.3 bnDemand-side support for GVA*142,240JobsAnnual

43、 tax revenues2.2 bn4.4 bnAnnual savings to taxpayer1.8 bnAll independent schoolsTHE IMPACT OF INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS ON THE UK ECONOMY*GVA=Gross Value AddedCarbon emissions comparatively low,and declining,on a per-of-GVA basisHMC schoolsTHE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HMC SCHOOLS7.3 BILLIONContribution to GVA m

44、easure of economic production,equivalent to 0.4%of total UK GVA,and GVA produced in a city the size of Derby.1.8 BILLIONAnnual savings to the taxpayer,enough to pay the state pensions of 220,000 retired people.2.2 BILLIONAnnual tax revenues,equivalent to 78 per household,and sufficient to fund the a

45、nnual pay of 60,000 nurses.142,240 JOBSSimilar to the total population of Preston.24%Fall in HMC schools greenhouse gas emissions per pupil,including those of their global supply chain,between 2015 and 2021.0.7%Share of total UK greenhouse gas emissions accounted for by HMC schools and their supply

46、chain,contrasting with these entities 0.21%share of UK GVA.5.1 bn328,0509The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy10The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy1.INTRODUCTIONThis report,prepared by Oxford Economics and commissioned by HMC,examines the contribution that HMC schools,and the wider ind

47、ependent schools sector,made to the UK economy in 2021.It has been produced in tandem with a report on the impact of all schools affiliated to the Independent Schools Council(ISC),which includes HMC schools amongst others.4 That report for the ISC in turn updated a previous study published in 2018,r

48、elating to the situation in 2017.4 Oxford Economics,The impact of independent schools on the UK economy,December 2022.Two sets of benefits for the wider economy are examined:HMC schools contribution to national economic production(GVA),jobs,and tax revenues,due to the activity taking place in HMC sc

49、hools,activity in the supply chain stimulated by the schools purchases of goods,services,and capital assets,and activity in the wider economy supported by the salary-funded spending of school and supply chain staff.Savings for the British taxpayer,because most pupils at HMC schools are entitled to,b

50、ut do not take up,a place at a state-funded school.In addition,the study examines the extent to which the estimates for the latest yearcalendar year 2021might have been affected by Covid-19 and Brexit.It further looks at the schools environmental impact,considering the schools own greenhouse gas emi

51、ssions and energy use,and that of the schools entire UK and global supply chain.1.1 INTRODUCTION TO HMC AND THE UK INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS SECTORThe main focus of this report is on the contribution to the UK economy of independent schools whose Heads are members of HMC,which is a professional associatio

52、n of headteachers of some of the worlds leading independent schools.It is one of seven bodies affiliated to the Independent Schools Council(ISC).As of early 2022,298 individuals were full members of HMC,in the British Isles,leading 354 schoolsas HMC members can,and increasingly do,lead groups of sch

53、ools.These members include the heads ofco-educationalschools,single-sexschools,and“diamond schools”where both single-sex and co-educational teaching take place.The association also includes heads of schools with a particular religious affiliation,or with dedicated provision for children with special

54、 educational needs.As Fig.1 shows,schools led by an HMC member were educating some 273,000 pupils in early 2022,accounting for 50%of all pupils then attending schools with an ISC connection.11The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFig.1:HMC and ISC schools and pupils in the UK,Channel Islands an

55、d Isle of Man,January 2022Number of schoolsNumber of pupilsHMCAll ISCHMCAll ISCHMC as%ISCEngland3151,315238,576498,73447.8%Scotland243422,25725,45187.5%Wales5193,7467,43250.4%Northern Ireland6106,5628,01281.9%Channel Islands and Isle of Man4102,0804,68744.4%Total3541,388273,221544,31650.2%O/w:Non-st

56、ate-funded in the UK*3441,371264,579531,99149.7%*This excludes seven ISC schools in Northern Ireland which are partly state-funded(including all six HMC schools there),and schools in the Channel Islands and Isle of Man.The analysis in Chapters 2-5 of this report relates to HMC schools located in the

57、 UK that are non-state-funded.Source:HMC via ISC.HMC school data are consistent with the ISCcensus and annual report 2022,and reflect the position in January 2022.5 Fig.2 provides a snapshot of the distribution of school pupils in the UK as of January 2022.This however does not reflect the proportio

58、n of pupils who may move between independent and state schools in the course of the academic year.Looking at the distribution of school pupils more broadly,in the UK,independent schools account for 5.8%of all pupils.5 Within that total,independent schools with an ISC connection account for 5.0%of al

59、l UK pupils,and independent HMC schools,for 2.5%.(The HMC pupil number here,of just under 265,000 excludes those at schools in Northern Ireland,which are partly state-funded,and those at schools in the Channel Islands and Isle of Man.)Fig.2:Distribution of UK school pupils by sector,January 2022Engl

60、andScotlandWalesNorthern IrelandTotal UK%of totalIndependent HMC schools238,57622,2573,7460264,5792.5%Other independent ISC schools260,1583,1943,686374267,4122.5%All independent ISC schools498,73425,4517,432374531,9915.0%Non-ISC independent schools82,6933,5812,42334289,0390.8%All independent schools

61、581,42729,0329,855716621,0305.8%State-funded schools8,414,639796,326474,724348,49110,034,18094.1%Overall total*9,000,031825,358484,579349,20710,659,175100.0%*The The England and UK totals also include 3,965 pupils at non-maintained special schools.Source:HMC;ISC;Department for Education;Scottish Ind

62、ependent Schools Council;gov.scot;StatsWales;Department of Education(Northern Ireland).12The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyThere are many types of school in HMC membership,and they are spread across the country.Some 53%of schools allow boarders(see Fig.3),with boarding school pupils account

63、ing for 17%of all HMC school pupils.Around 78%of the schools are co-educational,with 9%classified as boys schools and 13%as girls schools.The schools cater for children and teenagers,from pre-primary school age up to 19 years old,and mixed-age schoolstaking in pupils of senior and junior agesaccount

64、 for 48%.The average(mean)number of pupils per school is 772,although there is considerable variation around that.For comparison,schools affiliated to the ISC but not to HMC are significantly smaller,with an average of 262 pupils,and have a significantly lower proportion of boarders,at 7%.All 354 HM

65、C schools across the UK,Channel Islands and Isle of Man operate on a not-for-profit basis.To put that in context,75%of all ISC schools operate on that basis,and 66%of non-HMC ISC schools.Some 94%of HMC schools have formal partnership arrangements with schools in the state sector,whether they be acad

66、emic,sporting,pastoral,or teacher-focused.1.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY6 The six HMC schools in Northern Ireland are therefore excluded on the grounds that they are partly state-funded,while the four schools in the Channel Islands and Isle of Man are excluded due to being outside of the UK.This study cover

67、s the impact of the 344 independent HMC schools located in the UK.6 The analysis looks at HMC schools economic footprint in the UK(explained in Section 1.3 below),as well as the savings made by the taxpayer as a result of the schools existence.It also analyses the possible impact of Covid-19 and Bre

68、xit on the latest estimates of HMC schools size and impact,and the schools environmental effects.For the economic footprint and taxpayer savings analysis,the starting point is income-per-pupil and cost-per-pupil data for the academic year ending in August 2021.Thesedata are then scaled to the number

69、 of HMC pupils in January 2022.The results therefore give an indication of HMC schools impact in calendar year 2021.The estimates are constructed to take into account differences between type of school(e.g.,primary,secondary,or special),between regions,and(for the taxpayer savings analysis)between p

70、arents nationality and country of residence.Estimates for the impact of all independent schools are also given,although these are extrapolated from the estimates for all independent schools affiliated to the ISC,based on the ratio of pupil numbers on a region-by-region basis.Fig.3:Select characteris

71、tics of HMC schools100%0%of schoolsSource:HMC;ISC;Oxford EconomicsBoardingDay onlyCo-educationalBoys80%60%40%20%GirlsSenior53%47%78%9%37%15%48%Mixed ageJunior13%13The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy1.3 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTThe“economic footprint”analysis looks beyond the

72、 headline“size of the sector”metrics to quantify the wider contribution that HMC schools make to the UK economy.This uses a standard economic impact assessment framework,which quantifies this footprint across three channels:Direct impactthe economic activity undertaken by the schools themselves.Indi

73、rect(supply chain)impactthe activity supported throughout the UK supply chain,as a result of the schools procurement of goods and services from third-party suppliers.This considers the impact of spending relating to the day-to-day running of the schools,including spending on supply teachers and outs

74、ourced catering,as well as the impact of capital spending on construction work,and computers and other equipment.Induced(salary-funded expenditure)impactthe wider economic benefits that arise when the school staff,and workers in their supply chain,spend their earnings,for example in retail and leisu

75、re establishments.The way that the direct,indirect,and induced channels relate to each other is illustrated in Fig.4.The environmental impacts,set out in Chapter 5,are derived alongside these economic impacts in the way described in that chapter.Fig.4:Channels of economic impact INDUCED IMPACTTOTAL

76、IMPACTThe school and supplier employees spend wages in the wider economy,generating more GDP,jobs and taxes.Added together,these three effects(direct,indirect and induced)form the total economic footprint of the independent schools sector.INDIRECT IMPACTIt also spends money with suppliers,who employ

77、 staff,generate GDP,pay taxes,and use other suppliers in turn.DIRECT IMPACTThe independent schools sector employs staff,generates GDP,and pays taxes.14The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyThe economic footprint of HMC schools is quantified using three metrics.These are:The gross value added me

78、asure of economic production(GVA).7 In the case of direct GVA,this is the value of the education,accommodation,catering,and welfare services that the schools provide to their pupils,minus the value of day-to-day(non-capital)goods and services purchased from third parties.This is broadly equivalent t

79、o HMC schools employment costs,plus the gross surplus made on its operating activities,which is mainly used to cover the cost of past capital spending.7 GVA is a similar concept to gross domestic product(GDP),except that the former is valued at the“basic prices”received by suppliers,net of sales tax

80、es such as VAT and excise duties,while the latter is valued at the“market prices”paid by the purchaser,including those taxes.GDP is the measure typically used for national economic production,but GVA is usually used in relation to the contribution of an individual business,industry,or sector.Employm

81、entmeasured on a headcount basis,to facilitate comparison with employment data for other industries.This includes self-employed as well as employee jobs in the indirect and induced channels.Tax revenueencompassing all taxes on salaries,profits,business activity,and business supplies,and(in the induc

82、ed channel)those on employee spending.The calculations are undertaken on a gross basis.This means they do not take account of the economic activity displaced from other sectors.Nor do they attempt to quantify the productiveness of deploying the resources concerned in HMC schools,and in their supply

83、chain,relative to alternative potential uses.This is a standard approach for undertaking economic impact appraisal.1.4 ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS OF HMC AND INDEPENDENT SCHOOLSIt is important to note that the benefits of HMC and other independent schools,to the UK economy and society,ar

84、e by no means confined to the economic footprint.The box below summarises a range of other benefits,quantifiable and non-quantifiable,including those beyond the scope of this study.1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORTThe remainder of this report is structured as follows:Chapter 2 sets out the economic footpr

85、int of the independent HMC schools,and of the wider independent schools sector,in the UK in 2021.Chapter 3 describes the value of the savings made by the UK taxpayer in that year,as a result of school pupils eligible for a UK state school place attending an HMC school instead.Chapter 4 explores the

86、possible impact of Covid-19 and Brexit on the values estimated for 2021,by comparing the actual findings with a hypothetical alternative situation,in which the economic footprint continued to grow,in 2020 and 2021,at the pre-2020“trend”rate.Chapter 5 discusses the environmental impact of HMC schools

87、,both directly and as a result of the activity stimulated throughout their global supply chain.Appendix 1 summarises the main results in tabular form.Appendix 2 summarises the methodology.15The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyADDITIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS OF HMC AND INDEPENDENT SCHO

88、OLSContribution to the public sector and wider community:Savings to the taxpayer,due to pupils eligible for a free UK state school place attending an HMC school instead.These savings are additional to the tax revenues generated by the schools activities,captured in the economic footprint in Chapter

89、2 of this report,and are quantified in Chapter 3.Contributions to the local community through partnerships with state schools and local organisations.This can include sharing classrooms,sharing IT,sports and catering facilities,seconding teaching staff,and sponsoring state academies.Means-tested dis

90、counts on school fees.As of January 2022,8.5%of pupils at ISC schools(including HMC schools along with others)benefited from means-tested fee discounts.These discounts are valued at 480 million per annum,and now account for 50%of the value of all fee discounts funded by schools in ISC membership.Ove

91、r a third of all pupils at HMC member schools receive some type of fee assistance,and more than 54%of the pupils at ISC schools who receive fee assistance direct from school are at HMC member schools.The average value of a means-tested bursary at HMC member schools in early 2022 was 13,059 per annum

92、.This was 3.2%higher than a year earlier,and 2,219 more than the equivalent funding across all ISC schools.Contribution to long-term economic growth and living standards:The schools strong focus on scientific subjects,which are in high demand amongst graduate employers.This will support the UKs futu

93、re productivity performance,and benefit UK and global living standards,by educating pioneers in the scientific,engineering,and medical fields,to follow in the footsteps of Alan Turing,Tim Berners-Lee,Rosalind Franklin,Francis Crick,and the many others educated at HMC schools in the past.HMC had 23,2

94、17 A-Level candidates in 2022,equal to 71%of total A level candidates from ISC schools.Many of these pupils have gone on to study STEM subjects at university.Contribution of international pupils at British independent schools:Contribution to the UKs soft power overseas,by enhancing links with other

95、countries,including by educating future world leaders and influencers.Overseas political leaders who attended HMC schools in the UK include the first prime minister of India,Jawaharlal Nehru,as well as King Hussein of Jordan,amongst many others.Spending by international school pupils outside of the

96、schools,and spending by friends and relatives visiting the UK from their home countries.This adds to demand in the local economies around HMC schools.This spending,thought to be considerable,is beyond the scope of this study.Continued education at UK universities.UK universities,and their local econ

97、omies,will benefit when overseas pupils choose to move on to higher education in the UK.Additional contribution to UK earnings fromoverseas:Spending by tourists attracted to the UK by the presence of iconic HMC schools.Contribution of British schools located overseas:Generation of additional funds f

98、or the UK.The ISC estimates that there are some 6,000 UK-orientated schools overseas,in many cases paying salaries to British staff,purchasing UK-sourced goods and services,and/or generating surpluses to be repatriated to the UK.The Heads of 49 overseas schools are members of HMC.Provision of experi

99、ence to teachers who subsequently work in the UK.The two-way flow of teachers between the UK and overseas education systems will facilitate the sharing of skills,knowledge,and ideas across international borders.16The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy17The impact of HMC schools on the UK econom

100、y18The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2.THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT OF HMC AND INDEPENDENT SCHOOLSThis chapter analyses the economic impact of HMC schools,and the wider independent schools sector,on the UK economy in 2021,in terms of supporting GVA,employment,and taxation.88 The GVA and employmen

101、t estimates are based on data provided by Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd,as well as data provided by HMC and ISC.9 In this and all other charts and tables in the report,where the total appears to differ to the sum of the components,this simply reflects the effect of rounding.10 Full-time nurses on aver

102、age UK pay for that occupation in 2021,calculated using ONS data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings(“ASHE”).2.1 THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT:KEY FINDINGSIn 2021,HMC schools made a total GVA contribution to the UK economy of 7.3 billion(see Fig.5)9,taking the direct(own activity),indirect(supply

103、chain),and induced(salary-funded spending)impacts into account.This equated to 0.4%of UK GVA in the same year,and is comparable to the GVA generated across a city the size of Derby.It also accounted for 52%of the GVA impact of all ISC schools,reflecting the fact that HMC schools account for 50%of al

104、l ISC school pupils,and the fact that average fees per pupil are higher than the ISC average,due to both the higher proportion of senior schools(which have higher fees)and the higher share of HMC pupils who are boarders.This activity was associated with 142,240 jobs,which is similar to the total pop

105、ulation of Preston.It also supported a total tax contribution of 2.2 billion,sufficient to fund the pay of almost 60,000 nurses.10The overall independent schools sector generated 16.5 billion of GVA in 2021,supporting 328,080 jobsa similar number to the total population of Nottinghamand 5.1 billion

106、in tax revenues(see Fig.6).Fig.5:The total economic footprint of HMC schools,20218160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00040,00076543200 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInduced0.20GVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)7.31 billion2.19 billion142,240 jobs13.580.892.831.010.9875,66016,5605

107、0,02060,00020,00019The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2.2 THE SCHOOLS INCOME,COSTS,AND DIRECT GVAThe starting point for the economic impacts set out above is provided by information on the schools core(fee)income,and the ways in which that income is spent on goods,services,and salaries.In 20

108、21,the core operations of HMC schools(i.e.excluding trading,fundraising,and financing activities)generated 4.5 billion in income,as shown in Fig.7.Income from trading,fundraising,and financing activities provided an additional 200 million on top of that,taking income from all sources to 4.7billion.T

109、he total income of all independent schools is estimated to have been 10.4 billion,of which 9.9 billion related to core operations.Fig.6:The total economic footprint of all independent schools,2021Fig.7:Overview of income and costs of HMC and all independent schools in 2021 million,2021IncomeCostsNet

110、 surplusHMC schoolsMain school operations4,4604,352108Trading,fundraising,and financing20012971Total of all activities4,6604,481179All ISC schoolsMain school operations8,5638,326237Trading,fundraising,and financing380239141Total of all activities8,9438,565378Source:Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;ISC;HM

111、C;Oxford Economics300,0001618350,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInduced0.46GVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)16.52 billion5.06 billion328,050 jobs28.002.056.472.282.32175,62039,010113,42020The impact of HMC schools on the UK eco

112、nomyThe uses of that income are shown in Fig.8.Some 0.9 billion was spent on day-to-day(i.e.non-capital)purchases of goods and services from third parties,in order to run the schools,and deducting this from core fee income allows us to arrive at the schools direct GVA contribution.HMC schools are th

113、erefore estimated to have made a direct GVA contribution to the UK economy of 3.6 billion in 2021.The vast majority(89%)of that is accounted for by the 3.2 billion of staffing costs,with most of the remainder taken by the gross financial surplus needed to cover capital depreciationi.e.the cost of pa

114、st capital spending,which is spread over a number of future years in business and economic accounts.The direct GVA generated by HMC schools is similar in size to that of each of the Gloucester and Lincoln local authority areas.The wider independent schools sector made an estimated direct GVA contrib

115、ution of 8.0billion in the same year.Fig.8:Use of HMC school operating income by economic category,2021UK suppliers receiptsImported suppliesTaxes on purchasesBusiness rates etcCost of bought-in supplies:0.89 bn*Sectors own(direct)GVA:3.58 bnEmployment costsCapital depreciationNet surplusSource:Oxfo

116、rd Economics;Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;ISC*This excludes capital supplies.Total:4.46billion billion per annum0.09 bn0.10 bn0.01 bn3.17 bn0.11 bn0.69 bn0.29 bn21The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2.3 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT AND STAFF REMUNERATION11 The full-time equivalent(FTE)figure for HMC scho

117、ols in 2021 is 60,820.12 The classification is based on that of Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd,where“teaching support staff”include e.g.,laboratory technicians,employed sports coaches,and librarians,etc,as well as teaching and classroom assistants.In 2021,HMC schools directly employed an estimated 75,6

118、60 staff.11 Of this total,31,760(42%)are teaching staff,and 11,380(15%)teaching support staff,while 32,520(43%)work in other supporting roles such as catering and welfare(see Fig.9).12 Of the total number of staff,39,720(52%)work full-time and 35,940(48%)are estimated to be employed on a part-time b

119、asis.The total number of staff directly employed by HMC schools is equivalent to the total the population of Carlisle,and comparable to employment in the UK telecommunications services sector.All independent schools in the UK are estimated to have directly employed 175,620 staff in 2021,which is a g

120、reater number than the population of York.In addition to this direct employment,Oxford Economics estimates that HMC schools engaged 2,820 contracted-out catering workers in 2021,based on the Baines Cutler dataset.While these roles are essentially the same as those of the directly-employed catering s

121、taff,these individuals are included in the indirect(supply chain)jobs impact,rather than in the direct jobs figure.A breakdown of HMC schools estimated employment is outlined in Fig.10.Fig.10:Estimate of HMC school employment,2021HMC schools in UKFull-time workersPart-time workersTotal workersFull-t

122、ime equivalentTeaching staff24,6807,08031,76028,870Teaching support staff3,9007,48011,3808,280Other support staff11,14021,38032,52023,670Total directly-employed staff39,72035,94075,66060,820Contracted-out catering staff9701,8502,8202,050Total of all workers40,69037,79078,48062,870Source:Baines Cutle

123、r Solutions Ltd;Oxford Economics;HMC via ISCFig.9:Total directly employed HMC school staff by role and contract type,202135,00040,00030,00025,00020,00015,0005,0000HeadcountSource:Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;Oxford Economics;ISCFull-timePart-timeTeaching stafTeaching support staf31,76010,000Othernon-

124、teaching staf11,38032,5207,08024,6803,9007,48021,38011,14022The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2.4 DIRECT TAX IMPACTS13 The direct tax impact is defined to include taxes paid by the schools employees,and taxes added to the cost of business supplies by the schools suppliers(mainly unrefunded

125、VAT),as well as taxes levied on the schools themselves and paid directly to the authorities.All of the tax estimates have been modelled by Oxford Economics,based on income and spending patterns,and the main features of the UK tax system as it applies to the schools.In 2021,HMC schools are estimated

126、to have paid almost 1.0 billion in direct taxation,with the direct tax contribution of all independent schools estimated to have been 2.3 billion.13 Some 57%of HMCs direct tax impact was accounted for by employees income tax and National Insurance Contributions(NICs),with employers NICs accounting f

127、or a further 27%(see Fig.11).School fees are exempt from VAT,but this also means that VAT added by third party suppliers cannot be reclaimed.Consequently,taxes on purchases of goods and services,including capital projects and capital equipment,accounted for 15%of the direct tax total.However,it is w

128、orth stressing that these tax payments were depressed in 2021,as the schools income and activities were restricted by the Covid-19 pandemic.In fact we estimate that,had pre-2020 growth trends continued in 2020 and 2021making 2021 a more“normal”yearthen the direct tax impact would have been closer to

129、 1.1 billion for HMC schools.In the event,taxes related to the schools direct GVAmainly those on salarieswere almost 4%lower than they would have been in the absence of Covid.But taxes on purchases of goods and services(mainly unrefunded VAT),including those on capital projects and equipment,disappo

130、inted by considerably more than that,in proportionate terms.2.5 THE PATTERN OF PROCUREMENT AND INDIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTSThis section analyses the indirect impact supported by HMC schools.This impact is supported by the schools purchases of goods and services from suppliers throughout the UK.In turn,

131、the schools suppliers make purchases from other domestic firms,stimulating further activity along the supply chain.In 2021,HMC schools are estimated to have spent 1.08 billion on UK-sourced supplies across a range of sectors,with the suppliers receiving 0.94 billion after VAT and excise duties(see F

132、ig.12).Within the latter total,0.69 billion(74%)is classed as operational spending,on inputs to be used up during the year,whilst the remaining 0.25 billion(26%)is spent on capital items expected to last longer(such as construction work and computer equipment).Fig.11:Estimated tax payments by HMC sc

133、hools:actual 2021 out-turn and“normal”year2001,2000 millionSource:Oxford EconomicsEmployee income tax&NICsEmployer NICsActual Covid-afected year“Normal”yearTaxes on profits&propertyTaxes on purchases of goods&services1,000800600400611501,063The impact of HMC schools on the UK e

134、conomyHMC schools are estimated to have spent around 252 million with firms in the construction sector(27%of total domestic spending),a further 91 million(10%)with other parts of the education sector(such as self-employed sports and music instructors),111 million(12%)with catering firms(mainly the c

135、ontracted-out work),and 127 million(13%)with the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.14 The indirect GVA supported by HMC schools purchases from domestic suppliers was 0.9 billion in 2021(see Fig.13).This impact was felt across several sectors.Some 188 million(21%)of this impact occurred in the co

136、nstruction sector,136 million in the wholesale,retail and transport sector,and 109 million in the professional and financial services sector.14 Details of the industry classification can be found in a table in Appendix 1.For procurement of goods,the value is split between the producing sector(mainly

137、 manufacturing),and the retail and wholesale sector.The total indirect GVA supported by the entire independent schools sector is estimated to have been 2.1 billion in 2021.The activity along the schools domestic supply chain also supported 16,560 indirect jobs in 2021(see Fig.14).This is equivalent

138、to the population of Aberystwyth.Some 3,200 jobs were supported in the catering sector,an additional 2,570 in the wholesale,retail,and transport industries,and 2,110 in business support services.The pattern of indirect jobs by sector differs significantly from the pattern of GVA,reflecting sharp var

139、iations in GVA per job(a crude measure of labour productivity)betweenindustries.An estimated 39,010 indirect jobs were supported by the entire independent schools sector in 2021,which is more than the total population of Windsor.Fig.12:Value to UK suppliers of purchases by HMC schools,2021,by indust

140、ryFig.13:Gross value added supported by HMC schools procurement,by sector of supplier39 m42 mSource:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support services

141、EducationOther services including rent million127 m252 m89 mTotal:944million111 m56 m91 m67 m70 m47 m34 mSource:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness supp

142、ort servicesEducationOther services including rent million98 m188 m136 mTotal:894million67 m62 m73 m109 m79 m24The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyThe indirect tax contribution supported by HMC was 201 million in 2021.Within that total,employees income tax and NICs accounted for 88 million(44

143、%),taxes on business purchases,property,and profits for 70 million(35%),and employer NICs for 34 million(17%).The indirect tax impact supported across the independent schools sector as a whole is put at 455 million.2.6 INDUCED ECONOMIC IMPACTSThis section summarises the induced economic activity sup

144、ported by HMC schools in 2021.This impact is derived from the payment of staff salaries by HMC schools,and by the businesses in their UK supply chain(out of the proceeds of their sales to the schools).The employees in turn spend a proportion of their salaries on goods and services produced in the UK

145、 economy,and that production forms the induced GVA of HMC schools.In 2021,HMC schools induced GVA contribution was 2.8 billion,associated with 50,020 jobsmore than the population of Perth(in Scotland)and 1.0 billion in tax revenues.This was driven by the schools estimated 3.2 billion spending on sta

146、ff costs,together with the payment of wages in the schools supply chain.The induced tax impact includes taxes on employee spending(such as VAT and excise duties),as well as taxes on the business activity and staff salaries supported by that spending.The induced GVA impact of all independent schools

147、in the UK is estimated to have been 6.5 billion in 2021,supporting 113,420 jobssimilar to the total population of Basingstokeand generating 2.3 billion in tax revenues.Fig.14:Indirect employment of HMC schools by sector of supplier850190Source:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,w

148、ater,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesEducationOther services including rentHeadcount1,4802,0502,570Total:16,560jobs3,2007301,7501,6302,11025The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy2.7 TOTAL

149、ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT IN DETAIL15 Multipliers are typically higher than this for sectors such as manufacturing and retail,where external inputs account for a higher proportion of the value of sales,and the employees own inputs for a lower proportion.Across the direct,indirect,and induced channels,HMC s

150、chools supported a total GVA contribution of 7.3 billion in 2021,equivalent to 0.4%of UK GVA in that year.Some 3.6 billion(49%of the total impact)is accounted for by the schools direct GVA(see Fig.15).The remaining 3.7 billion of GVA,in the indirect and induced channels,supported economic activity a

151、cross a wide range of other sectors.As a result,10%of the total GVA impact is accounted for by wholesale,retail,and transport activities,and 7%by professional and financial services.The GVA multiplier is just over two,which is fairly typical for a sector providing services dependent on skilled or kn

152、owledgeable employees.15 This reflects the fact that,for every 100 of value added activity generated directly by HMC schools,an additional 104 is supported across the rest of the UK economy.The total GVA contribution of all independent schools within the UK is estimated to have been 16.5 billion in

153、2021.HMC schools also supported a total of 142,240 jobs across the UK economy in 2021,equal to the total population of Preston and accounting for 0.4%of all UK workforce jobs in that year.The 75,660 jobs directly generated by HMC schools accounted for 53%of the total impact(see Fig.16).The remaining

154、 66,580 indirect and induced jobs were spread over a wide range of activities,with 11%of the total jobs impact found in the wholesale,retail,and transport field,and 10%in catering and hotels.The total number of jobs supported across the wider independent schools sector is estimated to have been 328,

155、050 in 2021,equivalent to the total population of Nottingham.Fig.15:Total GVA contribution of HMC schools,by sector of activity,2021Fig.16:Total employment contribution of HMC schools,by sector of activity,2021156 m328 mSource:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstru

156、ctionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesHMC schools(direct impact)million288 m242 mTotal:7,308million3,584 m653 mOther services including rentOther education518 m156 m373 m766 m244 m3,7503,580Source:Oxford Economi

157、csManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesHMC schools(direct impact)Headcount15,99013,540Total:142,240jobs75,660Other services including rentOther education

158、6,0107905,7709,0902,3405,72026The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFinally,in 2021,2.2 billion of tax contributions to the UK exchequer were associated with HMC schools,equal to 0.2%of all tax receipts in that year,and to 78 per UK household.This would be enough to fund nearly 60,000 full-time

159、 nurses.Some 869 million(equal to 40%of the total tax supported by HMC schools)is accounted for by employees income tax and NICs(see Fig.17).An additional 479 million(22%)reflects taxes on business purchases,property and profits,with employer NICs accounting for 414 million(19%),and taxes on employe

160、e spending for 426million(19%).The total estimated tax contribution of all UK independent schools was 5.1billion in 2021.Fig.17:Total tax contribution of HMC schools,by type of tax,2021Source:Oxford Economics414 m86 mTotal:2,189millionEmployer NICsBusiness rates etcTaxes on business purchasesCorpora

161、tion taxEmployee income taxEmployee NICsTaxes on employee spending million272 m120 m546 m426 m324 m27The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy28The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy3.SAVINGS TO THE TAXPAYERThis chapter sets out the annual savings made by Government,and therefore the taxpayer

162、,as a result of HMC school pupils not taking up the free UK state school places to which they would otherwise be entitled.These estimates take into account:The number of pupils at HMC schools entitled to a UK school place in 2021(set out in Section 3.2 further below).Average recurrent spending per p

163、upil by state schools and trusts in that year(Section 3.3).Adjustments to per-pupil costs to reflect the mix of pupils by school type,region,and background,and existing state support for HMC school pupils(Section 3.4).The state capital outlayson land acquisition,building work,and subsequent maintena

164、ncethat would also be required if HMC pupils took up a state school place(Section 3.5).The estimates arrived at in this way should be seen as minimum estimates of the taxpayer savings supported.Potential additional(but unquantifiable)savings,over and above those amounts,are explored in Section 3.6.T

165、he methodology underlying the calculations is included in Appendix 2.16 The allocation of HMC school pupils to special schools is an estimate of the number likely to attend a special school if they moved into the state school sector.The split between primary and secondary is based on age.3.1 SAVINGS

166、 TO THE TAXPAYER:KEY FINDINGSThe key finding is that the taxpayer saving made in 2021,as a result of pupils attending an HMC school,was 1.8 billion,with the saving relating to all independent school pupils put at 4.4 billion(see Fig.18).As the chart shows,the day-to-day running costs of state school

167、ing(recurrent spending)account for the majority of the total estimated taxpayer saving,but potential land costs(on an annualised basis)are fairly significant too.3.2 HMC AND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL PUPILS ENTITLED TO A UK STATE SCHOOL PLACEWe estimate that,of the 265,000 pupils attending independent UK H

168、MC schools in January 2022,227,000 would have been entitled to a UK state school place.This figure is equivalent to the population of Aberdeen.It includes all pupils who are British nationals,and those from EEA countries whose parents are UK residents,subject to them being in the eligible age range(

169、i.e.,aged at least four but no more than 18 on the eve of the school year,31 August).Some 23,000 pupils would have been ineligible on the grounds of nationality and/or parents residence,with the remaining 15,000 pupils(mostly of nursery school age)ineligible on the grounds of age alone.Fig.19 shows

170、this breakdown,with a split between primary,secondary,and special school places,which affects the cost savings estimates.16 The chart also shows how,based on these estimates,somewhere in the region of 537,000 independent school pupils would have qualified for a UK state school place,out of the 621,0

171、00 total.Fig.18:Overview of taxpayer savings in 20211.0 billion per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsRecurrent spendingLandNew buildingCapital-funded maintenance4.55.04.03.53.02.52.01.50HMC schoolsAll independent schools0.51.831.390.080.040.324.443.300.860.180.1029The impact of HMC schools on the UK econ

172、omyFig.19:Eligibility of independent school pupils for a free UK state school place3.3 RECURRENT SPENDING PER PUPIL BY STATE-FUNDED SCHOOLS AND TRUSTSRecurrent spending per state school pupil across the UK is estimated to have been 6,414 in 2021,based on data for school and trust expenditure and pup

173、il numbers from various official sources.This figure includes all state primary,secondary,and special schools.But it excludes nursery schools,and is net of spending funded out of non-state sources.As Fig.20 shows,spending per head was somewhat higher in secondary schools than in primary schools.It w

174、as significantly higher than the average in the case of special schools,but as they only account for a small share of all schools,their effect on the overall average is limited.Estimates at the regional level should be viewed as approximations,due to data limitations.But the pattern in very broad te

175、rms looks to be one in which spending per pupil is clearly above-average in London and Scotland,at just over 7,500,with all of the other regions and countries in the 5,400-6,500 range.Fig.20:Recurrent school and trust spending per pupil in 20217000Thousands of pupilsSource:Oxford EconomicsEntitled t

176、o primary placeEntitled to secondary placeHMC school pupilsAll independentschool pupilsEntitled to special school placeBritish*but outside age range400300200100Non-British*For these purposes British includes EEA nationals whose parents are UK residents.5006003537 entitledout of 621227 entitledout of

177、 2650433035498,0000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsAll schoolsScotland6,0004,0002,000Primary schoolsSecondaryschoolsLondonRest ofSouth&EastMidlands&WalesNorth&N Ireland6,4145,5576,7197,5676,0616,1106,1877,53530The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy3.4 TAXPAYER SAVINGS DUE

178、TO RECURRENT SCHOOL SPENDING17 In this chapter,“eligible HMC school pupil”means a pupil eligible for a UK state school place.To arrive at the taxpayer saving per eligible HMC school pupil17,from average school spending per state school pupil,four adjustments are needed,as follows:1.The pupil premium

179、 for state schools must be deducted,as the share of HMC school pupils potentially eligible is far lower than the share of state school pupils qualifying at present.2.The net cost per pupil needs to be worked out separately,for each type of school in each region,and combined with the number of HMC sc

180、hool pupils in each of those categories,to arrive at the average for HMC school pupils rather than state school pupils.3.The pupil premium should then be added back for HMC pupils likely to qualify for it.4.Existing state funding for HMC school pupils should then be deducted.Fig.21 illustrates this

181、calculation.The regional and school type mix pushes up the estimated taxpayer saving per pupil a little,driven by the relatively high share of HMC pupils accounted for by secondary schools,and(though less significantly)schools in London(see Fig.22).But this is more than offset by the adjustments for

182、 the pupil premium,and existing state support for pupils at HMC schools.The estimate for taxpayer savings relating to recurrent state expenditure on schools(as opposed to capital spending)is 1.4 billion.This is calculated by multiplying the per-pupil saving of 6,132 with the number of eligible HMC p

183、upils(227,000).The corresponding figure for all eligible independent school pupils is 3.3 billion,taking the different pattern of pupils by region into account.Fig.21:Derivation of taxpayer savings per HMC pupil from spending per state school pupil6,6000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsSpe

184、nding per state school pupilAdd HMC schoolpupil premium6,4006,2006,0005,800-402*HMC school pupils eligible for a UK state school place.Deduct state schoolpupil premiumAdjust for regionand school typeTaxpayer saving perHMC school pupil*Deduct existingstate support6,4146,132-102+207+1431The impact of

185、HMC schools on the UK economy3.5 TAXPAYER SAVINGS DUE TO CAPITAL OUTLAYSIf a significant number of HMC school pupils moved into the state school sector,then the state would need to build or purchase new schools,requiring it to also acquire or set aside landprobably in higher-cost residential rather

186、than industrial areasand provide extra capital budgets to fund the subsequent building repair work required from time to time.Details of how the estimated savings on capital spending were derived,and data sources,are included in Appendix 2,but the key points are as follows:1.Given the number of elig

187、ible HMC school pupils,around 475 new schools would be needed across the country.2.This would require nearly 1,400 hectares of land,at a cost of around 6.4 billion.3.Based on the annual rental value of the land,the cost would be 316 million per year,or 1,392 per HMC school pupil per year.4.The requi

188、red new school buildings would cost 3.8 billion,or 75 million per year assuming a 50-year lifespanequivalent to 332 per pupil per year.5.The cost of school building repair and maintenance work is estimated to be 43 million per annum,or 189 per pupil per year.Total capital-related taxpayer savings fo

189、r HMC school pupils therefore amounted to 435 million per annum,or 1,912 for each HMC pupil not taking up their state school sector.Variations by school type and regional grouping are illustrated in Fig.23.The average estimated annual taxpayer saving per pupil varies quite markedly by region,and exc

190、luding London the national average would be 1,458.The capital-related taxpayer saving for all independent school pupils is estimated to have been 1.14 billion.Fig.22:State and HMC school pupils by type and location of school100%0%of UK totalSource:Oxford EconomicsPrimarySecondaryState school pupils

191、by school typeHMC school pupils by region*Special schoolLondon80%60%40%10%2%Scotland*HMC school pupils eligible for a UK state school place.Rest of UKHMC school pupils by school type*State school pupils by region56%42%1%36%63%13%80%7%17%75%8%20%30%50%70%90%32The impact of HMC schools on the UK econo

192、myFig.23:Annualised capital-related taxpayer savings per eligible HMC school pupil in 20213.6 POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL TAXPAYER SAVINGSThe recurrent costs for state school spending set out in Section 3.3 above relate to state-funded spending by local authority maintained schools and academy trusts at th

193、e primary and secondary levels,including central spending not allocated to individual schools in the case of multi-academy trusts.This equates to 63.4 billion in total,for 2021.However,based on data in the key Treasury public expenditure report,we estimate that net recurrent spending on state primar

194、y and secondary education,by all parts of the UK Government,would have been around 70.1 billion in that year.The“missing”6.7 billion(680 per pupil)would cover administrative costs borne by national and local authorities,and the cost of grants and other state-funded cash support for primary and secon

195、dary school pupils.This is shown by the light blue segment in Fig.24,which illustrates recurrent state education spending by category.Fig.24:Estimated recurrent UK state spending on education in 2021,by sub-function4,5000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsAll schoolsScotland1,5001,000500Prim

196、ary schoolsSecondary schoolsLondonRest of South&EastMidlands&WalesNorth&N Ireland3,0002,5002,0004,0003,5001,9121,4502,0624,1931,8361,0588961,076Source:Oxford Economics,based on HM Treasury,Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2021 billionPrimary and secondary education:schools and trusts spending

197、Primary and secondary education:other spendingPre-primary and post-secondary educationEducation-related research and developmentStrategy,policy,oversight and informationStudent support:transport,food,lodging,medical,etc10.1 bn63.4 bnTotal:91.7billion3.4 bn2.3 bn5.7 bn6.7 bn33The impact of HMC school

198、s on the UK economyIf the full 680 per-pupil cost translated into additional taxpayer savings,on a one-for-one basis,then the saving per HMC pupil would be pushed to 8,725,rather than 8,045.This would take the total taxpayer saving to 2.0 billion for HMC school pupils,and 4.8 billion for all indepen

199、dent school pupils.However,there are three reasons why that would overstate the true taxpayer saving:A significant,through unknown,proportion of the administrative costs will be fixed,rather than varying with pupil numbers.Cash support for HMC school pupils moving into the state school sector will n

200、ot match those paid to existing state school pupils,due to the backgrounds of the pupil involved.A small portion of the cost23 millionreflects existing state support for HMC pupils.Even so,give the scale and nature of the spending involved,it is almost certain that there would be some increase in th

201、ese administrative and pupil support costs,if significant numbers of pupils moved from HMC schools into the state sector.One example of taxpayer savings in this area is teacher induction,where the Independent Schools Teacher Induction Panel relieves the authorities of those costs.School inspection p

202、rovides a second example,with the self-funded,not-for-profit Independent Schools Inspectorate(ISI),rather than the state-funded body Ofsted,undertaking inspections of ISC schools in England.Here,we estimate that the state saved 3.0 million in the financial year ending March 2021,as a result of not h

203、aving to inspect HMC and other ISC schools.The saving in relation to all independent schools was 4.1million,considering the cost to Ofsted of inspecting non-ISC independent schools,and the fees paid to Ofsted by those schools.(These costs would have been higher had it not been for Covid-19 restricti

204、ons,which limited inspections in 2021.)Finally,state pupils at primary and secondary school levels may benefit from at least a small share of the non-cash support provided to pupils and students(transport,food,lodging and medical,etc,shown by the green segment in Fig.24),in a way that independent sc

205、hool pupils do not.Local authority provision of home-to-school transport for qualifying pupils,specifically attending state rather than independent schools,provides a concrete example of that.34The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy35The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy36The impact of HM

206、C schools on the UK economy4.THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXITThis Chapter explores the potential effect of Covid-19 and Brexit on HMC schools economic impact in 2021.4.1 THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXIT:KEY FINDINGSThe starting point for this analysis was an assessment of how the schools impacts i

207、n 2021 compared with the values that would have occurred,had the pre-2020“trend”growth rates continued in 2020 and 2021.We find that the total GVA impact fell short of that“expected”value by 8.3%,with the total employment impact disappointing expectations by 6.2%.These shortfalls were mainly driven

208、by trends in fee income,which fell short of expectations by 6.8%.Here,while the total number of pupils at HMC schools actually surpassed expectations based on pre-2020 trends,average fees per pupil were 8.4%lower than they would have been,on the basis of pre-2020 trendscontinuing.Our analysis sugges

209、ts that the vast majority of the reduction in GVA and jobs impacts,relative to pre-2020 growth trends,can be attributed to Covid-19.The key driver of the shortfall in arithmetic terms,i.e.,the average fee per pupil,is directly related to fee discounts offered to parents in 2021(as they had been in 2

210、020),specifically in response to the impact of Covid-19-related restrictions on both the schools offering,and the financial circumstances of some parents.By contrast,the impact of Brexit in the years concerned appears to be limited(although this does not mean that there will not be a more significan

211、t impact over the longer term).Trends in pupil numbers by nationality point to any“Brexit effect”being very small,and unlikely to account for more than 0.8%of the 6.8%shortfall in fee income identified.The other main finding of interest is that the direct GVA and employment impacts fell less sharply

212、 than the indirect impacts,which were dented quite severely(see Fig.25 in the case of GVA).That is because fee income is mainly used to cover two types of cost:employment costs,which form the major part of direct GVA and which held up relatively well,and purchases of goods and services from third pa

213、rties,which support the indirect impacts,and which were cut significantly.Fig.25:GVA shortfalls in 2021,by channel of impact%of expected GVASource:Oxford EconomicsActual GVA as%expected GVAShortfall as%expected GVA8010060400Direct GVAUK GVA for comparison20Total GVA impactInduced GVAIndirect GVA97.6

214、73.326.791.98.191.78.393.96.12.437The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy4.2 QUANTIFYING GVA SHORTFALLS IN ACTIVITY IN 2021To assess the extent of any shortfalls in activity in 2021,Oxford Economics used Baines Cutler data on school income,spending,and employment for 2015 and 2019,to estimate th

215、e GVA and jobs impacts of HMC schools in those years.The GVA estimates were rebased to 2021 prices,to control for inflation.The annual trend growth rates in each of the schools GVA and jobs impacts,for the period prior to 2020,were derived from there.The 2019 impacts were then grown forward to 2021,

216、on the basis of these prior trend growth rates continuing,with the results taken to be the“expected”impacts for that year.The actual 2021 GVA and employment out-turns were then compared with the expectations,to arrive at the estimated shortfalls(if any)caused by“economic shocks”.4.2.1 Shortfalls in

217、the schools GVA impacts in 2021As shown in Fig.25 above,the direct GVA impact fell short of expected levels in 2021 by 2.4%,with the total GVA impact disappointing by 8.3%.So direct GVA was adversely affected by the economic squeeze,but by less than GVA across the economy as a whole.However,indirect

218、 GVA fell short of expectations by a significant 26.7%,reflecting a shortfall in the schools purchases from third party businesses of a similar magnitude.The shortfall in the induced impact,reflecting the salary-funded spending of school staff,and(less importantly)that of supply chain workers,was 8.

219、1%.Fig.26 shows the actual and expected GVA impacts in 2021.The total GVA impact of 7.3 billion compares with an expected 8.0 billion,while the direct impact of 3.6 billion fell short of the expected 3.7 billion.The total GVA shortfall was therefore 0.7 billion in cash terms.The equivalent shortfall

220、 for all independent schools was 1.8 billion.Fig.27 shows the GVA estimates for 2015 and 2019,which lie behind the expected 2021 levels:6.8 billion and 7.6 billion(at 2021 prices)in the case of the total impact,and 3.2 billion and 3.5 billion in the case of the direct impact.Fig.26:Expected and actu

221、al GVA impacts in 2021,by channelFig.27:Trend in GVA impacts,2015-2019,and expected and actual GVA impacts in 2021 billion,revalued to 2021 pricesSource:Oxford EconomicsDirect GVAIndirect GVAInduced GVA8.010.06.04.02.00Expected 2021Actual 20213.71.23.13.60.92.88.07.3 billion,revalued to 2021 pricesS

222、ource:Oxford EconomicsTotal GVA impact:trend and actual89640202020201820172016Total GVA:trend and actualTotal GVA impact:expectedTotal GVA:expected75326.83.27.63.53.63.78.038The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFurther analysis of the data reveals that fee income fell short of expec

223、tations by 6.8%,driven by trends in average fees per pupil,rather than any shortfall in total pupil numbers(see Fig.28).In response to this lower fee income,plus the direct effect of Covid-19 restrictions on school activities,procurement from third party businesses counted in operating expenditure(“

224、opex”,as opposed to capital expenditure)was cut by 21.1%.So,as direct GVA is the difference between fee income and this type of procurement,it did not fall short of expectations to the same extent as income.Instead,the supply chain was squeezed significantly,with the effect compounded by the fact th

225、at capital procurement(mainly construction work)was cut even more sharply than procurement in opex.Taking that into account,direct and indirect GVA,taken together,fell short by 8.5%.Fig.29 shows the expected and actual changes between 2019 and 2021 underlying these estimated shortfalls.In total,pupi

226、l numbers grew by 3.8%over those two years,but fees per pupil fell by a cumulative 5.7%,after adjusting for inflation.The direct GVA of HMC schools increased by 2.4%,but direct and indirect GVA combined fell by a cumulative 3.7%,compared with the expected increase of 5.2%had pre-2020 growth trends c

227、ontinued.Fig.28:Direct and indirect GVA shortfall by contributing factorNotes:Fee income=pupil numbers x fees per pupil.Direct GVA=fee income-procurement in opex.Total procurement=procurement in opex+capital procurement.1000%of expected out-turnSource:Oxford EconomicsPupil numbersDirect+indirect GVA

228、604020Fees per pupilFee incomeProcurement in opexDirect GVATotal procurementIndirect GVAActual as%expectedShortfall as%expected80101.891.68.493.26.878.921.197.62.473.426.673.326.791.58.539The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy4.3 POSSIBLE DRIVERS OF THE GVA SHORTFALLS18 Baines Cutler Solutions

229、Ltd,National Independent Schools Benchmarking Survey 2022,The Financial Impact of Covid.In this section we seek to apportion the GVA shortfalls to various potential“drivers”,which could in principle include Covid and Brexit.4.3.1 Covid-19Our main conclusion is that Covid-19 appears to be the dominan

230、t factor behind the squeeze on HMC schools GVA impacts in 2021,relative to pre-2020 trends.The above analysis shows that the decline in fee income is mainly driven by average fees per pupil,rather than pupil numbers.This was largely driven by fee discounts given by the schools in that year,because o

231、f the impact of Covid restrictions on the schools offering,and on the financial circumstances of some parents.184.3.2 Brexit in the short termIn principle,Brexit could have had an impact,had the demand for school places from EEA nationals dropped specifically in response to that eventdue to changed

232、visa arrangements for example.That would directly reduce pupil numbers,and probably,also cut average fees per pupil,as these pupils are more likely to be boarders than other(mainly UK national)pupils.(Boarding fees are generally higher than day fees.)However,data on pupil numbers by nationality sugg

233、est that any such“Brexit effect”will have been modest,relative the overall,mainly Covid-driven shortfall.As Fig.30 shows,EEA nationals grew by an average of 1.4%per annum between 2019 and 2021,compared with an increase of 2.4%for other non-British pupils.Had the growth in EEA nationals matched that

234、of all other non-British pupilsa plausible possibility in the absence of Brexitthen fee income would have fallen short of expectations by 6.6%,rather than the 6.8%found.Alternative,more sophisticated estimates can also be made,consistent with a somewhat clearer“Brexit effect”.Fig.29:Change in inflat

235、ion-adjusted GVA impacts,and contributing factors,2019-2021Total%change,adjusted for inflationSource:Oxford EconomicsExpected%changeActual%change1.93.05.05.34.96.16.15.23.8-5.7-2.1-16.92.4-22.1-22.2-3.7PupilnumbersFees perpupilFeeincomeProcurementin opexDirectGVAIndirectGVADirect+indirect GVA-30-25-

236、20-15-10-50510Procurement40The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFirst,and as the chart shows,there is a striking variation within the“rest of the world”group.There was a drop in pupils from the Asia Pacific region,excluding India and Hong Kong,and also from Russia,between 2019 and 2021,almost

237、certainly driven by travel-related Covid-19 restrictions.On the other hand,there was a very sharp increase in pupils from Hong Kong.If both of these groups are excluded from the analysis,on the grounds of being“outliers”,then“rest of the world”pupils increased by 3.4%per annum between 2019 and 2021.

238、Had the growth in EEA nationals matched that benchmark growth rate,then the shortfall in fee income would have been around 6.5%.Second,if expectations are based on trend growth between 2015 and 2019,then EEA pupil numbers disappointed by much more than other non-British pupil numbers.More precisely,

239、the shortfall in EEA pupil numbers,calculated on the same basis as the shortfalls shown in Section 4.2,was 10.9%,versus a 5.5%shortfall for all other non-British nationals.Had EEA pupil numbers fallen short of these expectations by 5.5%,rather than 10.9%,then total fee income would have disappointed

240、 by 6.4%.And had EEA numbers exceeded expectations by 1.6%,in line with the out-turn for non-British nationals excluding“outliers”,then the fee income shortfall would have been 6.0%.But across the range of estimates,Brexit can only be blamed for limited share of the 6.8%shortfall in fee income in 20

241、21somewhere between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage pointsand,so,for a correspondingly low share of the GVA and jobs shortfalls,with Covid accounting for the vast majority.4.3.3 Brexit in the long termThis does not mean that Brexit will not have a more significant effect on HMC schools,and the independent sc

242、hools sector,over long term.It is possible that the new visa arrangements will prevent EEA pupil numbers from bouncing back,as the Covid-19 threat recedes,in the way that might otherwise have Fig.30 Trends in pupil numbers by nationality grouping,2015-19 and 2019-21Annual%changeSource:HMC schools vi

243、a ISC;Oxford Economics-2021All pupilsUK nationalsEEAnationalsTotalHong KongAsia*&RussiaAll other*-5%0%5%10%15%20%*Excludes Hong Kong,India&Middle East.*Non-EEA Europe other than Russia,Americas,Middle East,Africa,and India.Rest of World nationals0.9%0.5%7.1%4.3%4.2%5.5%2.6%1.9%1.8%1.4%2

244、.4%16.4%-4.5%3.4%41The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyhappened.And HMC schools fortunes will also be tied to those wider UK economy.In relation to the latter,it is difficult to identify any short-term“Brexit effect”in the UK-wide GVA figures,looking at 2020 and 2021 compared 19 The main iden

245、tifiable impact is a sharp decline in imports from the EU,compared with a very modest decline in imports from the rest of the world,between 2019 and 2021.But that does not directly affect UK GVA,which relates to domestic production.Exports to the EU also fell between the two years,but exports to the

246、 rest of the world fell by almost the same percentage.with 2019.19 But total exports and imports were both lower,as a share of total production and income,in 2021 than in 2019,and if that remained the case in the longer term,then national productivity and real incomes could grow at a slower rate tha

247、n otherwise,reflecting a loss of“gains from trade”.That could curb the demand for independent school places by UK resident parents,relative to a hypothetical“no Brexit”scenario,with losses each year accumulating into more significant losses over time.4.4 SHORTFALLS IN THE SCHOOLS EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

248、IN 2021Turning to employment,the broad picture is similar to that for GVA.In this case,the shortfall in the direct jobs impact was 1.9%,which was lower than the shortfall across the UK as a whole(Fig.31).But the total jobs impact disappointed by 6.2%,influenced by the 24.2%shortfall in indirect jobs

249、.Further details of these results can be found in the results tables in Appendix 1.Fig.31:Trend in jobs impacts,2015-2019,and expected and actual jobs impacts in 2021%of expected jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsActual jobs as%expected jobsShortfall as%expected jobs8010060400Direct jobsUK jobs for compari

250、son20Total jobs impactInduced jobsIndirect jobs1.998.175.895.193.896.124.24.96.23.942The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy43The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy44The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy5.ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSThe economic activity associated with HMC schools generates

251、 a complex environmental impact through many channels and across the entire value chain.At each stage of the journeyfrom,for instance,the extraction of gas in the North Sea,to the generation of electricity using that gas,to the transmission and use of electricity in schoolsenergy is used,and greenho

252、use gases(GHGs)escape into the atmosphere.These GHGs include carbon dioxide,methane,nitrous oxide,and fluorinated gases.The level of GHG emissions is an important environmental indicator,and is explicitly targeted in international treaties,most notably the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Conventi

253、on on Climate Change.Many governments around the world have incorporated the goal of limiting GHG emissions into their national policy priorities.In the UK specifically,there is now a target,set in law,to reduce them to 78%of 1990 levels by 2035.This is to be achieved mainly by cutting carbon emissi

254、ons,with any shortfall on that score offset by mitigating action,such as tree planting which can absorb carbon from the atmosphere.Gas emissions in turn are largely determined by energy use,and the source of that energy,but other factorssuch as the keeping of animalscan also contribute.20 HM Treasur

255、y,The Economics of Biodiversity:The Dasgupta Review,Headline Messages,February 2021.The UKs environmental objectives require all parts of the economy,including private and public sectors,charities,and households,to act,if this target is to be achieved.As the owners of large buildings,housing a wide-

256、range of energy-using activities(such as catering and laundry services),often in surrounding grounds,independent schools should be able to make a useful contribution to the national emissions target,despite the relatively small size of the sector when compared with the whole UK economy.This chapter

257、explores the scope and scale of these emissions,and the energy use contributing to them.The analysis considers not only the environmental footprint of the schools themselves,but also that of the supply chains they draw on,both in the UK and overseas.Just as each pounds worth of GVA has an associated

258、 employment and tax impact,depending on the nature of the businesses concerned,it also has an associated environmental impact,in terms of GHG emissions,allowing Oxford Economics to model this effect.However,rather than direct,indirect,and induced impacts,the GHG impacts are split into“scopes”,as def

259、ined in the Kyoto Protocol:Scope 1 impacts refer to the emissions generated at the schools sites;Scope 2 impacts reflect the emissions caused by the generation of electricity and gas supplied to the schools;and Scope 3 impacts capture the emissions of the schools wider global supply chain,both in th

260、e UK and across the rest of the world,and including supplies of capital assets.An alignment between economic impact channels(direct and indirect)and environmental impact channels(Scopes 1,2,and 3)is illustrated in Fig.32.Three points about the analysis should be emphasised.First,the GHG“footprint”me

261、asured here will not by any means capture the full extent of the schools impact on the environment.In particular,arguably the most important action that schools can take in this field is to teach their pupils about the potential environmental impact of their future actions.As the Dasgupta Review of

262、biodiversity points out,UK society should aim to“transform our institutions and systemsin particular our finance and education systemsto enable these changes and sustain them for future generations”.2045The impact of HMC schools on the UK economySecond,the estimates are modelled by Oxford Economics,

263、rather than using data provided specifically by HMC schools.The reduction shown in emissions over time is therefore based on an assumption that the schools impacts have changed in line with those of the wider education sector.However,we believe this to be a reasonable assumption and,as shown further

264、 below,HMC schools have indeed taken specific actions to curb the environmental effects directly within their control.Third,in principle Scope 3 impacts should also include the effect of customers using the goods and services produced by the sector concerned,plus all related travel activity.In the s

265、chools case,this will be essentially limited to the transport of pupils to and from the schools,which we have not been able to estimate due to the lack of comprehensive data.These so-called“downstream”impacts are also,therefore,excluded in the case of the benchmark comparator sectors.For the purpose

266、s of measurement,emissions of the various greenhouse gases are quantified in terms of“CO2-equivalency”,based on their“global-warming potential”.Fig.32:Illustration of the relationship between economic and environmental impactsCompany/sector utilises commodities and water,and generates emissions.Thes

267、e supply chain firms also utilise commodities,energy and water,and generate emissions.Added together,this represents the companys total environmental footprint.DIRECTIMPACTINDIRECTIMPACTTOTALIMPACTA company employs staf and generates GDP.These two efectsdirect and indirecttogether with wage-funded c

268、onsumer spending,comprise the total economic impact of the company or sector.It also spends money with suppliers who employ staf and generate GDP.They use other suppliers in turn.SCOPE3Valuechain2146The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy5.1 THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOTPRINT:KEY FINDINGSFig

269、.33 shows the estimated total emissions of GHGs associated with HMC schools in 2021,and in 2015 for comparison.In 2021,HMC schools total emissions amounted to 437,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2e).Within that,the impact within the UK,including the emissions of the schools and their suppl

270、y chain,was 294,000 tonnes,or 0.07%of total UK emissions.That compares with the school and supply chain share of total UK GVA of 0.21%,suggesting that HMC schools are“greener”than the average UK sector,in terms of UK carbon emissions per unit of GVA.As the chart also shows,HMC schools emissions at t

271、he global level fell by 19%between 2015 and 2021,or by 24%on a per-pupil basis.Also,most emissions occur in the value chaini.e.,Scope 3with the direct emissions at the schools themselves(Scope 1)comparatively modest.Within the Scope 3 impacts,manufacturing(such as producing school furniture),utiliti

272、es and mining(such as generating the electricity used by the furniture producers),and transport and distribution(to transport the furniture from the factory to the school,for example)account for 30%,26%,and 22%of these emissions,respectively.Fig.33:HMC schools estimated GHG emissions in 2015 and 202

273、1 To put the schools emissions in context,Fig.34 shows emissions per million of GVA(that is,the“emissions intensity”),for the schools and five comparator sectorsnamely agriculture,construction,a typical manufacturing sector(clothing manufacture),a typical consumer service sector(catering),and a typi

274、cal business service sector(computer-related services).It can be seen that the schools emissions intensity is on the low side in this context,and fell by 28%between 2015 and 2021.This means that HMC schools became“greener”relative to each unit of economic activity supported,between those two years.F

275、urthermore,although there has been a general trend for emissions intensity to fall across most parts of the UK economy,the decline for HMCschools has been faster than for each of the comparator sectors.Total sector GHG emissionsThousands of tonnes CO2 equivalentGHG emissions per pupilTonnes CO2 per

276、pupilSource:Oxford Economics0200201951991431.221.130.230.183.382.572.801.8900200300400500600Scope 1Scope 2Scope 3(UK)Scope 3(Rest of World)543437(-19%)7.646.61(-24%)47The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFig.34:HMC schools GHG emissions intensity in 2015 and 20

277、21,in context 5.2 HMC SCHOOLS OWN SCOPE 1 IMPACTTurning to the individual scopes,Fig.35 shows how the Scope 1 impact is low in the case of the schools,on a per-pound-of-GVA basis,compared with the benchmark sectors.The impact is also expected to have fallen between 2015 and 2021,as it did across mos

278、t parts of the UK economy.HMC schools recognise their social responsibility to enhance the environmental sustainability of their activities,and members of the HMC school community are striving to act as socially responsible organisations.Just two good examples of that are provided by the activities

279、of the Royal Hospital School,and Berkhamsted School,outlined in the case studies below.Fig.35:HMC schools own Scope 1 GHG emissions intensity in 2015 and 2021,in contextTonnes CO2e per million of GVA at 2021 prices Source:Oxford Economics20152021ComputerservicesHMC schoolsConstructionCateringClothin

280、gmanufactureAgriculture54,98384,56701,0002,0003,0004,0005,000-8%-28%-22%-12%-8%-8%122177Tonnes CO2e per million of GVA at 2021 prices Source:Oxford EconomicsComputerservicesHMC schoolsConstructionCateringClothingmanufactureAgriculture262427240118772734,3,7791,0002,00

281、03,0005001,5002,5003,5004,0004,500-9%-12%-9%-9%-9%-9%2015202148The impact of HMC schools on the UK economySCHOOL FOCUS:THE ROYAL HOSPITAL SCHOOL21 Royal Hospital School.Caring For Our Environment.22 Royal Hospital School.Caring For Our Environment.23 Royal Hospital School.2019.Gold Carbon Charter.24

282、 Royal Hospital School.2019.Community Garden.25 Royal Hospital School.2019.Gold Carbon Charter.26 Royal Hospital School.2022.Earth Day Pledges.27 Royal Hospital School.2022.Plastic Pick Up.28 Royal Hospital School.2021.The Big COP 26 Debate.29 Royal Hospital School.Caring For Our Environment.The Roy

283、al Hospital School(RHS),an independent school located in Ipswich,aims to“cultivate a global outlook and environmental responsibility”.21 The school,driven by its pupil-led Eco-Committee,demonstrates its commitment to this aim through a range of environmental initiatives to help tackle climatechange.

284、In 2019,RHS received a Gold Carbon Charter from Suffolk Council in recognition of the school having reduced its carbon footprint by 35%since 2010.22 The school cut its resource use across several categories,including reducing water use by 54%,heating oil usage by 41%,and electricity by 26%.In additi

285、on,RHS has made structural investments to improve its operational efficiency.These investments include energy use monitoring systems,insulation,secondary glazing,LED lighting,pump inverters,and water treatment systems.23Pupils at the school have also been inspiring sustainable practices by,for examp

286、le,growing a school community garden.24 The Eco-Committee,made up of pupil representatives from across the school,ran a campaign on single-use plastic bottles used by RHS,leading to the introduction of re-usable bottles for pupils.25 Recently,the committee encouraged pupils and staff to make an envi

287、ronmental commitment on Earth Day 2022(22 April),and volunteered to clean up plastic from a local woodland.26,27 Climate change awareness is also included in the schools curriculum.For example,GCSE geography students study topics such as deforestation and climate change,and took part in a COP 26 deb

288、ate following the global conference.Students across the school also joined a virtual meeting with a Global Sustainability consultant to learn more about COP 26.28 Looking ahead,the school and Eco-Committee are determined to continue to implement change,following the disruption of the Covid-19 pandem

289、ic.2949The impact of HMC schools on the UK economySCHOOL FOCUS:BERKHAMSTED SCHOOLBerkhamsted School,located in Hertfordshire,is committed to incorporating sustainability into all of its teaching and operations.This is reflected in these activities amongst others:The establishment of a Sustainability

290、 Committee to provide leadership,co-ordination and guidance on how to integrate sustainability principles and practices into all of the Schools activities and operations.The provision from 2022 onwards of an Annual Sustainability Report,highlighting the Schools Environmental,Social and Governance(ES

291、G)strategy,goals,andactivities.Participation in the Governments Streamlined Energy and Carbon Reporting(SECR)framework,on an annual basiscalculating the Schools Scope 1 and 2 emissions,and comparing them on an absolute and intensity basis.Ensuring that the Schools performance targets align with UN S

292、ustainable Development Goals(SDGs),in those fields where the school has,or could have,the greatest impact.Putting initiatives and strategies in place,over the next few years,to reduce the Schools overall carbon emissions.As well as continuing to reduce energy consumption,and transport-related emissi

293、ons,the School will also seek to gain a greater understanding of the Scope 3 emissions generated in its supply chain.The provision of a home-to-school coach service transporting up to 580 pupils every day,with each coach journey on average saving 31 parent car trips and 3.47 g/km of CO2.The School h

294、as also negotiated discounts with train and bus providers,and is developing software to facilitate car-sharing by pupils and their parents,and by staff.The recent addition of three fully electric zero emission vans to the Schools vehicle fleet,and introduction of an electric bike scheme for staff tr

295、avelling between School sites.Looking ahead,there are plans to develop electric vehicle charging,to be accessible to staff,pupils and visitors,by 2030.The adoption of a zero waste-to-landfill policy,supported by a partnership with Grundon Waste Management Ltd.This ensures that most waste is recycled

296、,and that the remainder is incinerated in a way that generates electricity and provides heat to local homes.A partnership with the Wildlife Trust in 2022,to research the best ways to promote and increase biodiversity and flora on the School grounds.50The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyMore b

297、roadly,several HMC schools have set up eco-initiatives to inform and inspire positive change,from small-scale pupil-led eco-committees which aspire to enact change within the local community,to longer-term environmental commitments.Such commitments include the”Lets Go Zero”carbon charter,a national

298、campaign to help participating schools become net zero by 2030.30 To date,21 HMC schools have signed up to the charter.Furthermore,the Girls Day School Trust(GDST),a group of UK independent girls schools including HMC members,has invested in large-scale redevelopment of its school sites and systems.

299、By Earth Day 2022(22 April),GDST became a recognised carbon-neutral organisation.3130 Lets Go Zero 2030.Schools working together to be zero carbon.31 Independent Education Today.2022.The Girls Day School Trust to celebrate Earth Day 2022 as a CarbonNeutral organisation.5.3 THE SCOPE 2 IMPACT OF HMCS

300、 ENERGY USEFor HMC schools,and for the benchmark sectorsnone of which are especially energy-intensive producersthe Scope 2 impacts are limited.They have typically fallen across-the-board in the UK in recent years,mainly reflecting shifts in the pattern of UK energy generation,away from coal and othe

301、r fossil fuels,and towards renewable energy(see Fig.36).For the schools,total energy usemeasured in the physical unit of joules rather than monetary valueis estimated to have increased by 4%between 2015 and 2021,although this represents a 4%decline on a per-pupil basis.But,as Fig.37 shows,there was

302、a dramatic shift away from energy sources based on coal and petroleumwhich generate significant amounts of GHGsand a clear step-up in the use of energy derived from renewable sources,such as solar power,wind power,and hydro-electricity.Fig.38 puts these values onto a per-pound-of-GVA basis,and compa

303、res across the benchmark sectors.HMC schools use the least energy of all on this basis,though it can be seen how the ratios have trended downwards across the economy since 2015,and most markedly in agriculture and clothing manufacture where energy-intensity was the highest to start with.Fig.36:HMC s

304、chools Scope 2 GHG emissions in 2015 and 2021,in contextTonnes CO2e per million of GVA at 2021 prices Source:Oxford EconomicsComputerservicesHMC schoolsConstructionCateringClothingmanufactureAgriculture04.25.24.815.16.221.83.83.94.413.85.720.0510152025-9%-12%-9%-9%-9%-9%2015202151The impact of HMC s

305、chools on the UK economyFig.39 and Fig.40 show how,in addition to the reduction in total energy use per unit of GVA,the energy mix became more environmentally-friendly for each of the sectors between 2015 and 2021.HMC schools compare well on that score,with a comparatively low 30%of energy used deri

306、ved from coal and petroleum in 2021,and a comparatively high 24%from renewable sources(including hydro-electricity).The remainder is accounted for by natural gas,which is another fossil fuel but less environmentally-unfriendly than coal and petroleum,and nuclear power,which has a low impact in terms

307、 of GHG emissions,but has other downsides in terms of resource use and contamination risk.Fig.37:HMC schools energy use in 2015 and 2021,by sourceFig.38:Total energy use by select UK sectors in 2015 and 20212,0000Trillions of joules(terajoules)Source:Oxford Economics2028002001,8001,0001,2

308、001,4001,60024343556406CoalPetroleumNatural gasNuclearHydro-electricSolar&wind,etc1,7851,722Thousands of joules per of GVA at 2021 pricesSource:Oxford EconomicsComputerservicesHMC schoolsConstructionCateringClothingmanufactureAgriculture201520217.494.771.680.880.630.546.603.131

309、.630.820.590.500.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0-12%-34%-3%-7%-7%-8%52The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyFig.39:The energy use mix of select sectors in 2015Fig.40:The energy use mix of select UK sectors in 20211000%of total energy use in joulesSource:Oxford Economics6040208015%14%14%11%11%6%27%

310、32%33%47%48%73%37%33%32%26%26%13%10%9%9%7%7%4%11%11%11%8%8%4%CateringHMC schoolsClothing manufactureComputer servicesConstructionAgricultureCoalPetroleumNatural gasNuclearHydro-electricSolar&wind,etc1000%of total energy use in joulesSource:Oxford Economics60402080CateringHMC schoolsClothing manufact

311、ureComputer servicesConstructionAgricultureCoalPetroleumNatural gasNuclearHydro-electricSolar&wind,etc2%2%2%2%2%1%23%28%28%42%42%69%43%39%38%32%32%17%7%7%7%6%5%3%23%23%23%18%17%10%53The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy5.4 THE GLOBAL SCOPE 3 IMPACT OF HMCS NON-ENERGY PURCHASES32 In practice,th

312、e purchasing sectors could have contributed,by adjusting their procurement,but the modelling has not captured this effect in full,as it is based on an assumption that the pattern of purchases by product type was unchanged between 2015 and 2021(although it does capture shifts in imports by country of

313、 supplier).Scope 3 impacts reflect the quantity of goods and services,and capital assets,purchased by each sector,and the industries and countries from which those inputs are sourced.As a general rule,these emissions have fallen over time.This is largely due to the actions taken by supplying industr

314、ies around the globe to reduce their emissions impact,rather than the actions of the purchasing sectors themselves.32As Fig.41 illustrates,HMC schools Scope 3 emissions intensity is lower than most of the comparator sectors,and has fallen fairly significantly in recent years.This reflects the quanti

315、ty of external inputs used by HMC schools(modest relative to the schools own GVA),the nature of those supplies(skewed towards services rather than goods,compared with the UK average),and the geographical spread of those supplies(relatively few imports,especially from countries where emissions intens

316、ity is high).Fig.42,meanwhile,shows how the Scope 3 impacts split between those occurring in the UK,and those in the rest of the world.Despite the comparatively low level of direct imports from high-emissions countries,as the model tracks transactions throughout the global supply chain,in total non-

317、UK entities account for just over 40%of the schools Scope 3 emissions impact.However,that is a lower proportion than in the case of clothing manufacture,agriculture,and computer services.Fig.41:HMC schools Scope 3 GHG emissions in 2015 and 2021,in contextTonnes CO2e per million of GVA at 2021 prices

318、 Source:Oxford EconomicsComputerservicesHMC schoolsConstructionCateringClothingmanufactureAgriculture0208408443033622537680500600700800900-7%-32%-26%-13%-8%-7%54The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy5.5 TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE IN DETAILOverall,HMC sch

319、ools themselves accounted for 20%of all emissions associated with their activity(through the Scope 1 impact),with the remainder accounted for by firms in their global supply chain(Scopes 2 and 3)(see Fig.43).The three most important supply chain industries here are utilities and mining(23%of all emi

320、ssions),manufacturing(23%),and transport and distribution(17%).Specific examples of these three sectors could include,respectively,mining the silica used to make computer chips,manufacturing computers for schools at a factory,and transporting the chips from the mine to the factory.Agriculture(9%),co

321、nstruction(5%),and other services(4%),account for the remainder.Fig.42:Scope 3 GHG emissions in the UK and Rest of the World in 2021Fig.43:HMC schools total global GHG footprint in 2021,by industry of emitter9000Tonnes of CO2e per 1 million of GVASource:Oxford Economics600400200800CateringHMC school

322、sClothing manufactureComputer servicesConstructionAgricultureUKRest of World05303362252768Source:Oxford EconomicsThousands of tonnes CO2eTotal:437,000tonnes86417HMC schoolsUtilities&miningManufacturingAgricultureConstructionTransport&distributio

323、nOther services55The impact of HMC schools on the UK economyIn terms of the geographic distribution of the total GHG impact,the UK accounts for 67%of this impact,and the rest of the world for the remaining 33%.The geographic distribution of the latter group is shown in Fig.44.China is the most signi

324、ficant individual country in 2021 hereaccounting for 5%of the combined UK and non-UK totalfollowed by Germany,the US,France,and Ireland.The remainder is spread around the globe,in terms of both geography and average income of the country concerned.Finally,total energy use across HMC schools and thei

325、r entire global supply chain,by power source and on a per-pound-of-GVA basis,is shown in Fig.45,alongside that of the comparator sectors and their global supply chains.33 The OECD grouping,referred to in the chart,is comprised of mainly high-income countries.Fig.44:HMC schools non-UK GHG footprint b

326、y country grouping33This will be an important driver of the total GHG intensity for each sector,set out in Section 5.1.It can be seen that HMC schools,and their supply chain,compare well,in terms of having low energy use per unit of sector GVA.The energy mix is also relatively favourable,with the pr

327、oportion accounted for by coal and petroleum the second lowest of the six sectors,and the proportion accounted for by renewables,the joint highest.Source:Oxford EconomicsThousands of tonnes CO2e262613ChinaGermanyUSFranceIrelandOther OECD:AmericasOther OECD:EMEA*Other OECD:Asia PacificOthe

328、r:AmericasOther:EMEA*Other:Asia Pacific*Europe,Middle East,and Africa.Totalexcluding UK:143,000tonnesFig.45:Total energy use by select sectors and their global supply chains in 2021180Millions of joules per of GVASource:Oxford Economics12615932.12.15.55.66.115.143%/17%coal&petroleum%/renewables%34%/

329、20%41%/19%32%/20%42%/19%52%/13%CateringHMC schoolsClothing manufactureComputer servicesConstructionAgricultureCoalPetroleumNatural gasNuclearHydro-electricSolar&wind,etc56The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy57The impact of HMC schools on the UK economy58The impact of HMC schools on the UK eco

330、nomyAPPENDIX 1:RESULTS TABLES INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATIONFig.46:Industry classification used in the charts and tablesSector in this reportSection in UK Standard Industrial ClassificationNotesManufacturing&agricultureAgriculture,forestry,&fishing(A)Manufacturing(C)Includes repair&installation of machiner

331、y.Mining,energy,water,wasteMining&quarrying(B)Electricity&gas supply(D)Water supply,sewerage,and waste management(E)ConstructionConstruction(F)Wholesale,retail&transportWholesale and retail trades;motor vehicle repair(G)Transportation&storage(H)Catering&hotelsAccommodation&food service activities(I)

332、Indirect impacts mainly relate to catering contract workers.Information&communicationInformation&communication(J)Includes telecommunications,computer-related services,broadcasting,publishing,and information services.Professional&financial servicesFinancial&insurance activities(K)Professional,scienti

333、fic,and technical activities(M)Includes legal work,accountancy,management consultancy,architectural and engineering consultancy,advertising,and design.Business support servicesAdministrative and support service activities(N)Includes leasing activity,employment agencies,travel agencies,security,cleaning,landscaping,office support,and other business support activities.EducationEducation(P)All staff