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1、DECEMBER 2022THE IMPACT OF INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS ON THE UK ECONOMY1The impact of independent schools on the UK economyForeword 2Executive summary 41.Introduction 81.1 Introduction to the ISC and the UK independent schools sector 81.2 Scope of the study 101.3 Introduction to economic impact assessment
2、101.4 Additional economic and social benefits of independent schools 121.5 Structure of the report 132.The economic footprint of ISC and all independent schools 142.1 The economic footprint:key findings 142.2 The schools income,costs,and direct GVA 162.3 Direct employment 172.4 Direct tax impacts 18
3、2.5 The pattern of procurement and indirect economic impacts 192.6 Induced economic impacts 212.7 Total economic footprint in detail 213.Savings to the taxpayer 243.1 Savings to the taxpayer:key findings 243.2 Independent school pupils entitled to a UK state school place 253.3 Recurrent spending per
4、 pupil by state-funded schools and trusts 263.4 Taxpayer savings due to recurrent school spending 263.5 Taxpayer savings due to capital outlays 283.6 Potential additional taxpayer savings 4.The impact of Covid-19 and Brexit 324.1 The impact of Covid-19 and Brexit:key findings 324.2 Quantifying GVA s
5、hortfalls in activity in 2021 334.3 Possible drivers of the GVA shortfalls 354.4 Shortfalls in the schools employment impacts in 2021 37Appendix 1:Main results tables 38Appendix 2:Regional distribution of the ISC economic footprint 44Appendix 3:Impact of boarding at ISC schools 47Appendix 4:Impact o
6、f non-British pupils at ISC schools 48Appendix 5:Methodology 50DECEMBER 2022TABLE OF CONTENTSThe impact of independent schools on the UK economy2FOREWORDIndependent schools are entwined in the fabric of their local economies.Each schoollarge or smallwill be connected to its local community in a myri
7、ad of ways whether by employing teachers,IT technicians or caterers or working with businesses to procure goods and services.And importantly schools will be paying taxes to support wider society.This report provides national level data to quantify the economic contribution of independent schoolsboth
8、 their direct activities and the ripple effects this has through supply chains.These numbers are substantial,and all the main indicators have increased since our last report in 2018.Together independent schools contribute 16.5 billion to the UK economy,supporting 328,000 jobs and 5.1billion in tax r
9、evenues.And the sector saves the government 4.4 billion every year by educating pupils who would otherwise take up a place in state-funded schools.Independent schools also attract international students who culturally enrich their school communities,with many going on to study at UK universities hav
10、ing immersed themselves in our education system.This report details the 2.1billion impact these students and their families have on our economy.As our country emerges from the economic shadow of Covid-19 now more than ever is the time to safeguard the economic benefits independent schools provide bo
11、th nationally and locally.We know many local economies would be worse off should their independent schools disappear.The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3There is no typical independent school.There is a diversity in the sector that belies the popular stereotype.ISC schools vary signi
12、ficantly in size from having fewer than 50 pupils to nearly 2,500,although half of all schools have fewer than 300 pupils.The sector also offers a variety of specialisms in SEND,single-sex education,boarding,music and dance.All these schools contribute economically,while across the sector schools wo
13、rk hard to provide public benefit by building partnerships with their state colleagues and to widen access through providing 480 million worth of bursaries and means tested fee assistance.Alongside this report,Oxford Economics has also provided an economic impact toolan online resource which individ
14、ual schools can use to calculate their own local economic contribution and we urge schools reading this report to use it(via the ISC website).Finally,I would like to thank Oxford Economics for their work in putting this report together and providing such a clear picture of the economic value indepen
15、dent schools deliver.Barnaby Lenon,ChairmanIndependent Schools Council4The impact of independent schools on the UK economyEXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 In this report the term“ISC schools”is used as shorthand for“ISC member association schools”.Schools are not direct members of ISC.Rather,the requirements for
16、being considered an“ISC school”are that the school has the ability to charge fees,and that its head is a member of one of ISCs constituent associations(see Chapter 1).2 GVA is the standard measure of economic production for a business,industry,or sector,and(as explained in Chapter 1)is a similar con
17、cept to gross domestic product(GDP).Independent schools in the United Kingdom make a significant contribution to national and local economies,as well as the communities they serve.In 2021,according to independent economic analysis as set out in this report:Schools affiliated to the Independent Schoo
18、ls Council(ISC)made a 14.1 billion contribution to the UK economy.That is equivalent to 0.7%of total UK GDP in that year,and to the total economic activity generated in a city the size of Sheffield.The activities of ISC schools also have a significant impact on UK employment.In 2021,they supported a
19、round 282,000 jobs across the country,equivalent to the total employed population in a city the size of Liverpool.ISC schools also supported 4.3 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer.That is sufficient to fund the salaries of 115,000 full-time nurses.Scaling the results up to all independent
20、schools across the UK,we estimate their total economic footprint to have been 16.5 billion,associated with over 328,000 jobs,and 5.1 billion in tax revenues.The study also found that independent schools save the taxpayer 4.4 billion every year by providing places for pupils who could otherwise be ex
21、pected to take up a place in the state-funded sector.The ISC schools share of that total is 3.8 billion.This study investigated the impact of the schools affiliated to the ISC1,and that of the independent schools sector more widely,on the UK economy in 2021.It considers the economic activity taking
22、place in the schools,and the activity supported right across the economy by the schools spending on goods,services,capital projects,and salaries.It also considers the effect of Covid-19 and Brexit on the ISC schools economic impact in 2021.ECONOMIC FOOTPRINTThe 14.1 billion total contribution to the
23、“gross value added”measure of UK production(GVA)is made up of three elements.2 The direct GVA impact is 6.9 billion and is primarily the costs of employing teaching and support staff to carry out the day-to-day work of the school.14.1 bnISC schools contribution to UK production(GVA)in 2021,taking th
24、e knock-on impact of spending on goods,services,and salaries into account.This supported 281,980 jobs,and 4.3 billion in taxes.5The impact of independent schools on the UK economyBut the schools impact on the UK economy does not end there.They purchase goods and services from third parties,often in
25、their local area,including construction companies,IT support service providers,school equipment suppliers,contract catering firms,and self-employed music and sports instructors,amongst many others.This generates GVA for those businesses,and for their suppliers in turn,and this so-called“indirect GVA
26、 impact”is estimated at 1.8 billion in 2021.Furthermore,the schools teachers and support staff,and workers in their supply chain,will spend their take-home pay in shops,restaurants,and leisure outlets,and on utilities and household services,supporting further production in the UK consumer economy.Th
27、is so-called“induced GVA impact”is estimated to have contributed a further 5.5 billion to the total economic footprint in 2021.Altogether,this means that,for every 100 million of GVA generated directly by ISC schools,an extra 105 million is supported by supply chain links and salary-funded expenditu
28、re.As the total GVA impact is,therefore,just over twice the direct GVA impact alone,the GVA multiplier is just over two.The 281,980 jobs supported by ISC schools across the country include:152,290 teachers and support staff directly employed by the schools themselves;33,550 indirect jobs in the supp
29、ly chain,supported by their procurement of goods and services from third party businesses;and 96,140 induced jobs supported in the UK consumer economy,by the salary-funded spending of school and supply chain staff.The 4.3 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer was made up of:Some 2.0 billion i
30、n direct taxes,paid by ISC schools themselves,and by their staff on their salaries;Another 0.4 billion of indirect taxation collected along the schools supply chain;and 1.9 billion of induced taxation generated by the salary-funded spending of employees.6The impact of independent schools on the UK e
31、conomySAVINGS FOR THE TAXPAYERIf independent school pupils took up the state school places to which they were entitled instead,then the British taxpayer would have to bear significant extra costs.We estimate that independent schools save the British taxpayer at least 4.4 billion annually.The share o
32、f ISC schools in this saving is 3.8 billion per year.This calculation considers teaching and other recurrent costs in the UK state school sector,plus capital costs associated with the use of land,construction of school buildings,and property maintenance.But it excludes central administrative costs,a
33、nd is therefore likely to slightly understate the full amount of the saving.THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXITThe GVA and employment impacts of ISC schools in 2021 fell short of the levels that would have prevailed had the pre-2020“trend”growth rates continued,by an estimated 10%and 8%respectively.Th
34、is was primarily driven by an 8%shortfall in average fees per pupil,estimated on the same basis.This in turn was directly associated with Covid-19-related fee discounts,allowing us to conclude that Covid-19 was the dominant cause of the GVA and employment“losses”.By contrast,recent trends in pupil n
35、umbers by nationality do not provide any conclusive evidence of a short-term“Brexit effect”.However,it does not necessarily follow that there will be no significant impact in the long-termif,for example,changes in visa arrangements resulted in EU pupil numbers growing at a slower pace than otherwise
36、.ABOUT THE ISCThe Independent Schools Council(ISC)brings together seven associations of independent schools,their heads,bursars,and governors.In early 2022,the ISC represented nearly 1,400 independent schools in the UK.These schools educated more than half a million children,equivalent to 86%of pupi
37、ls at all UK independent schools.Independent schools in turn account for 6%of the countrys entire school population.10%Shortfall in economic output in 2021 due to the impact of Covid-19 on school activity and parents finances.4.4 bnAnnual savings to the UK taxpayer as a result of pupils attending an
38、 independent school,instead of taking up a free UK state school place.The ISC schools share of that total is 3.8 billion.2,559 schools1,371 schoolsWider contribution to the economy,society,and state-funded education16.5 bn5.1 bn14.1 bnDemand-side support for GVA*328,050281,980JobsAnnual tax revenues
39、4.3 bn4.4 bnAnnual savings to taxpayer3.8 bnAll independent schoolsTHE IMPACT OF INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS ON THE UK ECONOMY2.1 bn*GVA=Gross Value AddedGVA supported by non-British pupilsISC schoolsTHE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ISC SCHOOLS14.1 BILLIONcontribution to GVA (Gross Value Added).Equivalent to 0.7%of t
40、otal UK GVA,and GVA produced in a city the size of Sheffield.281,980 JOBSSimilar to employment across a city the size of Liverpool.3.8 BILLIONannual savings to the taxpayer,enough to pay 460,000 state pensions.4.3 BILLIONannual tax revenues,equivalent to 154 per household.This could fund the annual
41、pay of 115,000 nurses.8The impact of independent schools on the UK economy1.INTRODUCTIONThis report,prepared by Oxford Economics and commissioned by the Independent Schools Council(ISC),examines the contribution that ISC schools,and the wider independent schools sector,made to the UK economy in 2021
42、.It updates the results of previous studies published in 2014 and 2018.3 As in the previous study,two sets of benefits for the wider economy are examined:3 Oxford Economics,The impact of independent schools on the British economy,April 2014,and Oxford Economics,The impact of independent schools on t
43、he UK economy,October 2018.4 ISCs constituent associations are:the Association of Governing Bodies of Independent Schools(AGBIS),the Girls Schools Association(GSA),HMC(the Heads Conference),the Independent Association of Prep Schools(IAPS),the Independent Schools Association(ISA),the Independent Sch
44、ools Bursars Association(ISBA),and the Society of Heads(SofH).Four associations are affiliate members of ISC:the Council of British International Schools(COBIS),the Boarding Schools Association(BSA),the Scottish Council of Independent Schools(SCIS),and the Welsh Independent Schools Council(WISC).The
45、 sectors contribution to national economic production(GVA),jobs,and tax revenues,due to the activity taking place in the sector itself,activity in the supply chain stimulated by the schools purchases of goods and services,and activity in the wider economy supported by the salary-funded spending of s
46、chool and supply chain staff.Savings for the British taxpayer,because most pupils at independent schools are entitled to,but do not take up,a place at a state-funded school.In addition,the study examines the extent to which the estimates for the latest yearcalendar year 2021might have been affected
47、by Covid-19 and Brexit.1.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE ISC AND THE UK INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS SECTORThe main focus of this report is on the contribution to the UK economy of independent schools that are members of ISC associations.The ISC comprises seven constituent associations of independent schools,their hea
48、ds,bursars,and governors.4 As of January 2022,independent schools accounted for 5.8%of all school pupils in the UK,and those in membership of the ISC,for 5.0%(see Fig.1).ISC association schools therefore account for 86%of all pupils at UK independent schools.Fig.1:Distribution of school pupils in th
49、e UK in January 2022EnglandScotlandWalesNorthern IrelandTotal UK%of totalISC independent schools498,73425,4517,432374531,9915.0%Other independent schools82,6933,5812,42334289,0390.8%Total independent schools581,42729,0329,855716621,0305.8%State-funded schools8,414,639796,326474,724348,49110,034,1809
50、4.1%Overall total19,000,031825,358484,579349,20710,659,175100.0%Source:Independent Schools Council;Department for Education;Scottish Independent Schools Council;gov.scot;StatsWales;Department of Education(Northern Ireland).1 The England total also includes 3,965 pupils at non-maintained special scho
51、ols.In total,1,388 schools are members of ISC associations,as of early 2022,with around 544,000 pupils enrolled(see Fig.2).Of these,1,371 are independent schools located in the UK,educating 532,000 pupils.The other ISC members comprise seven state-funded voluntary grammar schools in Northern Ireland
52、,and 10 independent schools in the Channel Islands and Isle of Man.The total number of independent schools in the UK is 2,559,educating some 621,000 pupils.9The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.2:Schools in membership of associations affiliated to the ISCNumber of schoolsNumber of
53、pupilsEngland1,315498,734Scotland3425,451Wales197,432Northern Ireland(independent schools)3374Total independent schools in the UK1,371531,991Northern Ireland(state-funded grammar schools)77,638Channel Islands and Isle of Man104,687Overall total1,388544,316Source:Independent Schools Council.The ISC s
54、chool data are consistent with the ISC census and annual report 2022,and reflect the position in January 2022.There are many types of schools in ISC membership,and they are spread across the country(see Appendix 2).Boarding school pupils account for 12%of all ISC school pupils,and girls for 49%of pu
55、pils.The schools cater for children and teenagers,from pre-primary school age up to 19 years old.Some 75%of the schools(1,039 of the 1,388)operate on a not-for-profit basis.The schools vary in size,with nearly a quarter having fewer than 150 pupils,and just over a quarter having more than 500(see Fi
56、g.3).The average(mean)number of pupils per school is 392.The median is just under 300,as just over half of the schools have 300 pupils or fewer.Fig.3:ISC schools by size band in terms of pupil numbersSource:Independent Schools Council;Oxford Economics1----50050
57、1-10001001+Number of schools by pupil size bandTotal1,388schools17012%16712%13810%1289%1158%19014%1058%28420%917%10The impact of independent schools on the UK economy1.2 SCOPE OF THE STUDY5 The schools in the Channel Islands and Isle of Man,and the state-funded grammar schools in Northern Ireland,ar
58、e therefore excluded from the analysis.This study covers the impact of the 1,371 independent ISC-affiliated schools located in the UK.5 The analysis looks at the sectors economic footprint across the country(explained in Section 1.3 below),as well as the savings made by the taxpayer as a result of t
59、he schools existence,and the possible impact of Covid-19 and Brexit on the latest estimates of the sectors size and impact.For the economic footprint and taxpayer savings analysis,the starting point is income-per-pupil and cost-per-pupil data for the academic year ending August 2021.Thesedata are th
60、en scaled to the number of ISC pupils in January 2022.The results therefore give an indication of the sectors impact in the calendar year 2021.The estimates are constructed to take into account differences between type of school(e.g.primary,secondary,or special),between regions,and(for the taxpayer
61、savings analysis)between parents nationality and country of residence.Estimates for the impact of all independent schools are also given,although these are extrapolations based on the ratio of pupil numbers on a region-by-region basis.1.3 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTThe“economic footpr
62、int”analysis looks beyond the headline“size of the sector”metrics to quantify the wider contribution that ISC schools make to the UK economy.This uses a standard economic impact assessment framework,which quantifies this footprint across three channels:Direct impactthe economic activity undertaken b
63、y the schools themselves.Indirect(supply chain)impactthe activity supported throughout the UK supply chain,as a result of the schools procurement of goods and services from third-party suppliers.This takes into account the impact of spending relating to the day-to-day running of the schools,includin
64、g spending on supply teachers and outsourced catering,as well as the impact of capital spending on construction work,and computers and other equipment.Induced(salary-funded expenditure)impactthe wider economic benefits that arise when the school staff,and workers in their supply chain,spend their ea
65、rnings,for example in retail and leisure establishments.The way that the direct,indirect,and induced channels relate to each other is illustrated in Fig.4.11The impact of independent schools on the UK economyINDUCED IMPACTFig.4:Channels of economic impact 6 GVA is a similar concept to gross domestic
66、 product(GDP),except that the former is valued at the“basic prices”received by suppliers,net of sales taxes such as VAT and excise duties,while the latter is valued at the“market prices”paid by the purchaser,including those taxes.GDP is the measure typically used for national economic production,but
67、 GVA is usually used in relation to the contribution of an individual business,industry,or sector.The economic footprint of the sector is quantified using three metrics.These are:The gross value added measure of economic production(GVA).6 In the case of direct GVA,this is the value of the education,
68、accommodation,catering,and welfare services that the schools provide to their pupils,minus the value of day-to-day(non-capital)goods and services purchased from third parties.This is broadly equivalent to the sectors employment costs,plus the gross surplus made on its operating activities,which is m
69、ainly used to cover the cost of past capital spending.Employment,measured on a headcount basis,to facilitate comparison with employment data for other industries.This includes self-employed as well as employee jobs in the indirect and induced channels.Tax revenues,encompassing all taxes on salaries,
70、profits,business activity,and business supplies,and(in the induced channel)those on employee spending.The calculations are undertaken on a gross basis.This means they do not take account of the economic activity displaced from other sectors.Nor do they attempt to quantify the productiveness of deplo
71、ying the resources concerned in the independent schools sector,and in its supply chain,relative to alternative potential uses.This is a standard approach for undertaking economic impact appraisal.TOTAL IMPACTThe school and supplier employees spend wages in the wider economy,generating more GDP,jobs
72、and taxes.Added together,these three effects(direct,indirect and induced)form the total economic footprint of the independent schools sector.INDIRECT IMPACTIt also spends money with suppliers,who employ staff,generate GDP,pay taxes,and use other suppliers in turn.DIRECT IMPACTThe independent schools
73、 sector employs staff,generates GDP,and pays taxes.12The impact of independent schools on the UK economyContribution to the public sector and wider community:Savings to the taxpayer,due to pupils eligible for a free UK state school place attending an independent school instead.These savings are addi
74、tional to the tax revenues generated by the independent schools activities,captured in the economic footprint in Chapter 2 of this report,and are quantified in Chapter 3.Contributions to the local community through partnerships with state schools.This can include sharing classrooms,sharing IT,sports
75、 and catering facilities,seconding teaching staff,and sponsoring state academies.An illustration of the scale and breadth of these partnerships was included in the previous report published in 2018.Means-tested discounts on school fees.As of January 2022,8.5%of ISC school pupils benefited from means
76、-tested fee discounts.These discounts are valued at 480 million per annum,and now account for 50%of the value of all fee discounts funded by the schools.Contribution to long-term economic growth and living standards:The schools strong focus on scientific subjects,which are in high demand amongst gra
77、duate employers.This will support the UKs future productivity performance,and benefit UK and global living standards,by educating pioneers in the scientific,engineering,and medical fields,to follow in the footsteps of Alan Turing,Tim Berners-Lee,Rosalind Franklin,Francis Crick,and the many others ed
78、ucated at UK independent schools in the past.Contribution of international pupils at British independent schools:Spending by international school pupils outside of the schools,and spending by friends and relatives visiting the UK from their home countries.This adds to demand in the local economies a
79、round the schools.The impact is additional to the schools own footprint,which is the subject of Chapter 2,and is estimated as part of the analysis in Appendix 4.Continued education at UK universities.UK universities,and their local economies,will benefit when overseas pupils choose to move on to hig
80、her education in the UK.Contribution to the UKs soft power overseas,by enhancing links with other countries.Contribution of British schools located overseas:Generation of additional funds for the UK.The ISC estimates that there are some 6,000 UK-orientated schools overseas,in many cases paying salar
81、ies to British staff,purchasing UK-sourced goods and services,and/or generating surpluses to be repatriated to the UK.Provision of experience to teachers who subsequently work in the UK.1.4 ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS OF INDEPENDENT SCHOOLSIt is important to note that the benefits of ind
82、ependent schools to the UK economy and society are by no means confined to the economic footprint.The box below summarises a range of other benefits,quantifiable and non-quantifiable,including some beyond the scope of this study.13The impact of independent schools on the UK economy1.5 STRUCTURE OF T
83、HE REPORTThe remainder of this report is structured as follows:Chapter 2 sets out the economic footprint of ISC schools,and that of the wider independent schools sector,in the UK in 2021.Chapter 3 describes the value of the savings made by the UK taxpayer in that year,as a result of school pupils el
84、igible for a free UK state school place attending an independent school instead.Chapter 4 explores the possible impact of Covid-19 and Brexit on the values estimated for 2021,by comparing the actual findings with a hypothetical alternative situation,in which the economic footprint continued to grow,
85、in 2020 and 2021,at the pre-2020“trend”rate.Appendix 1 summarises the main national-level results in tabular form.Appendix 2 sets out the regional distribution of the economic footprint and taxpayer savings.Appendices 3 and 4 set out the economic impact of boarders at ISC schools,and international p
86、upils at ISC schools,respectively.Appendix 5 summarises the methodology.14The impact of independent schools on the UK economy2.THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT OF ISC AND ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOLSThis chapter analyses the economic impact of ISC schools,and the wider independent schools sector,on the UK economy
87、in 2021.The analysis is an update 7 The GVA and employment estimates are based on data provided by Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd,as well as ISC.8 In this and all other charts and tables in the report,where the total appears to differ to the sum of the components,this simply reflects the effect of roun
88、ding.9 ISC schools spending on capital projects and equipment is included in this study,but not in the previous one.To allow for an accurate comparison,the 2017 results have been adjusted upwards,to reflect what the impact would have been had capital expenditure been included.This comparison has not
89、 been adjusted for inflation.10 All data on GVA and employment by local authority area and industry in this report are based on the latest ONS Business Register and Employment Survey(BRES),for 2020,projected to 2021 by Oxford Economics.to the previous impact assessment undertaken by Oxford Economics
90、 in 2018,relating to values in 2017.Oxford Economics evaluates the economic footprint of ISC schools and the independent schools sector in terms of their contribution to UK GVA,employment,and tax revenues.72.1 THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT:KEY FINDINGSIn 2021,ISC schools made a total GVA contribution to th
91、e UK economy of 14.1 billion(see Fig.5)8,equal to 0.7%of UK GVA,and similar in magnitude to the GVA generated across a city the size of Sheffield.This is some 10%higher than the GVA impact previously estimated for 2017,on a like-for-like basis.9,10Fig.5:The total economic footprint of ISC schools,20
92、2116300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInduced0.39GVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)14.07 billion4.31 billion281,980 jobs26.881.755.441.931.99152,29033,55096,14015The impact of independent schools on the UK economyThis activity
93、was associated with 281,980 jobs,which is comparable to total employment across a city the size of Liverpool,and 2%higher than in 2017 on a like-for-like basis.The consequent 11 Full-time nurses on average UK pay for that occupation in 2021,calculated using ONS data from the Annual Survey of Hours a
94、nd Earnings(“ASHE”).total annual tax contribution is estimated to have been 4.3 billion,which would have been sufficient to fund the pay of 115,000 nurses.11The wider independent schools sector,including non-ISC schools,supported a GVA contribution of 16.5 billion in 2021,328,050 jobs,and 5.1 billio
95、n in tax revenues(see Fig.6).Fig.6:The total economic footprint of independent schools,2021300,0001618350,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInduced0.46GVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)16.52 billion5.06 billion328,050 jobs28.002.05
96、6.472.282.32175,62039,010113,42016The impact of independent schools on the UK economy2.2 THE SCHOOLS INCOME,COSTS,AND DIRECT GVAThe starting point for the economic impacts set out above is provided by information on the schools core(fee)income,and the ways in which that income is spent on goods,serv
97、ices,and salaries.In 2021,the core operations of ISC schools(i.e.excluding trading,fundraising,and financing activities)generated 8.6 billion in income,as shown in Fig.7.Income from trading,fundraising,and financing activities provided an additional 380 million on top of that,taking income from all
98、sources to 8.9 billion.The total income of all independent schools is estimated to have been 10.4 billion,of which 9.9 billion was derived from main school operations.The uses of that income are shown in Fig.8.Some 1.7 billion was spent on day-to-day(i.e.non-capital)purchases of goods and services f
99、rom third parties,in order to run the schools,and deducting this from core fee income allows us to arrive at the schools direct GVA contribution.Fig.7:Overview of income and costs of ISC and all independent schools in 2021 millionIncomeCostsNet surplusISC-affiliated schoolsMain school operations8,56
100、38,326237Trading,fundraising,and financing380239141Total of all activities8,9438,565378All independent schoolsMain school operations9,9539,671281Trading,fundraising and financing442278164Total of all activities10,3959,949445Source:Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;ISC;Oxford EconomicsFig.8:Use of ISC scho
101、ol operating income by economic category,20210.2 bn0.2 bn0.02 bn0.6 bn0.2 bnUK suppliers receiptsImported suppliesTaxes on purchasesBusiness rates etcCost of bought-insupplies:1.7 bn*Sectors own(direct)GVA:6.9 bnEmployment costsCapital depreciationNet surplusSource:Oxford Economics;Baines Cutler Sol
102、utions Ltd;ISC*This excludes capital supplies.Total:8.6billion1.3 bn6.1 bn17The impact of independent schools on the UK economyISC schools are therefore estimated to have made a direct GVA contribution to the UK economy of 6.9 billion in 2021,by providing education and boarding facilities to pupils.
103、The vast majority(88%)of that is accounted for by the 6.1 billion of staffing costs,with most of the remainder taken by the gross financial surplus needed to cover capital depreciation.12 This direct GVA contribution is comparable to the GVA generated in the Portsmouth local authority area,and to th
104、at of the UK clothing and textiles manufacturing sector.It is 14%higher than the direct GVA impact in 2017,on a like-for-like basis(before adjusting for inflation).The wider independent schools sector made an estimated direct GVA contribution of 8.0 billion in 2021.12 Depreciation is the cost of pas
105、t capital spending spread over a number of future years,which is the standard treatment in both“profit and loss”accounts for businesses,and“national accounts”for the economy.13 The full-time equivalent figure is 121,170.14 The classification is based on that used by Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd,where
106、“teaching support staff”include e.g.laboratory technicians,employed sports coaches,and librarians,etc,as well as teaching and classroom assistants.2.3 DIRECT EMPLOYMENTIn 2021,ISC schools directly employed an estimated 152,290 staff,which is 3%more than in 2017.13 Of this total,64,030(42%)are teachi
107、ng staff,and 23,120(15%)teaching support staff,while 65,140(43%)work in other support roles such as catering and welfare(see Fig.9).14 Of the total number of staff,77,140(51%)work full-time and 75,150(49%)are employed on a part-time basis.Fig.9:Total directly employed ISC school staff by role and co
108、ntract type,2021The total number of staff directly employed by ISC schools is greater than the employed population of Sunderland,or that of Southampton,and comparable to employment in the UK scientific research and development sector.All independent schools in the UK are estimated to have directly e
109、mployed 175,620 staff in 2021.Using data from Baines Cutler,Oxford Economics estimates that ISC schools engaged around 6,040 contracted-out staff in 2021,in catering roles.Whilst these roles are essentially the same as those of directly-employed catering staff,these workers are counted in indirect r
110、ather than direct employment.A detailed breakdown of the estimated employment of ISC schools in 2021 is outlined in Fig.10.70,00080,00060,00050,00040,00030,00010,0000HeadcountSource:Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;Oxford Economics;ISCFull-timePart-timeTeaching stafTeaching support staf64,03020,000Others
111、upport staf23,12065,14017,13017,1307,92015,20042,82022,32018The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.10:Estimate of ISC school employment,2021ISC schools in the UKFull-time workersPart-time workersTotal workersFull-time equivalentTeaching staff46,90017,13064,03056,940Teaching support s
112、taff17,92015,20023,12016,830Other support staff22,32042,82065,14047,400Total directly-employed staff77,14075,150152,290121,170Contracted-out catering staff2,0703,9706,0404,400Total of all workers79,21079,120158,330125,5701 This category includes e.g.laboratory technicians,employed sports coaches,and
113、 librarians,etc,as well as teaching and classroom assistants.Source:Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd;Oxford Economics;ISC 2.4 DIRECT TAX IMPACTS15 The direct tax impact is defined to include taxes paid by the schools employees,and taxes added to the cost of business supplies by the schools suppliers(main
114、ly unrefunded VAT),as well as taxes levied on the schools themselves and paid directly to the authorities.All of the tax estimates have been modelled by Oxford Economics,based on income and spending patterns,and the main features of the UK tax system as it applies to the schools.In 2021,ISC schools
115、are estimated to have paid 2.0 billion in direct taxation,with the direct tax contribution of all independent schools estimated to have been 2.3 billion.15 Some 57%of the direct tax impact was accounted for by employees income tax and National Insurance Contributions(NICs),with employers NICs accoun
116、ting for a further 26%(see Fig.11).School fees are exempt from VAT,but this also means that VAT added by third party suppliers cannot be reclaimed.Consequently,taxes on purchases of goods and services,including capital projects and capital equipment,accounted for 15%of the direct tax total.Fig.11:Es
117、timated tax payments by ISC schools:actual 2021 out-turn and“normal”year2,5000 millionSource:Oxford EconomicsEmployee income tax&NICsEmployer NICsActual Covid-afected year1,990“Normal”yearTaxes on profits&propertyTaxes on purchases of goods&services2,0001,5001,0005002,2171,1321,9297353719
118、The impact of independent schools on the UK economyHowever,it is worth stressing that these tax payments were depressed in 2021,as the schools income and activities were restricted by the Covid-19 pandemic.In fact we estimate that,had pre-2020 growth trends continued in 16 Details of the industry cl
119、assification can be found in a table in Appendix 1.For procurement of goods,the value is split between the producing sector(mainly manufacturing),and the retail and wholesale sector.2020 and 2021making 2021 a more“normal”yearthen the direct tax impact would have been over 2.2 billion.In the event,ta
120、xes related to the schools direct GVAmainly those on salarieswere almost 5%lower than they would have been in the absence of Covid.But taxes on purchases of goods and services(mainly unrefunded VAT),including those on capital projects and equipment,disappointed by considerably more than that,in prop
121、ortionate terms.2.5 THE PATTERN OF PROCUREMENT AND INDIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTSThis section analyses the indirect impact supported by ISC schools.This impact is supported by the schools purchases of goods and services from suppliers throughout the UK.In turn,the schools suppliers make purchases from ot
122、her domestic firms,stimulating further activity along the supply chain.In 2021,ISC schools are estimated to have spent 2.09 billion on UK-sourced supplies across a range of sectors,with the suppliers receiving 1.82 billion after VAT and excise duties(see Fig.12).Within the latter total,1.32 billion(
123、72%)is classed as operational spending,on inputs to be used up during the year,whilst the remaining 0.50 billion(28%)is spent on capital items expected to last longer(such as construction work and computer equipment).ISC schools are estimated to have spent around 497 million with firms in the constr
124、uction sector(27%of total domestic spending),a further 349 million(19%)with other parts of the education sector(such as self-employed sports and music instructors),235 million(13%)with catering firms(mainly the contracted-out work),and 199 million(11%)with the manufacturing sector.16 Fig.12:Value to
125、 UK suppliers of purchases by ISC schools,2021,by industrySource:Oxford Economics millionManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesEducationOther services inc
126、luding rentTotal:1,820million199 m497 m132 m235 m83 m100 m105 m349 m58 m61 m20The impact of independent schools on the UK economyThe indirect GVA supported by ISC schools purchases from domestic suppliers was 1.75 billion in 2021(see Fig.13).The difference between the initial amount received by UK s
127、uppliers,and the indirect GVA of the supply chain,reflects“leakage”in the form of import content.But this is extremely modest,due to the importance of construction and services supplies,as opposed to supplies of goods for which import content is more significant.The indirect GVA impact was spread ac
128、ross several sectors,with 296 million(17%)of GVA produced in the professional and financial services sector,274 million in the rest of the education sector,and 259 million in the construction sector.The total indirect GVA supported by the independent schools sector is estimated to have been 2.1 bill
129、ion in 2021.The activity along the schools domestic supply chain also supported 33,550 indirect jobs in 2021(see Fig.14).Some 6,530 jobs were supported in the education sector,an additional 6,670 jobs in the catering sector,and 4,330 jobs supported in the wholesale,retail,and transport sector.The pa
130、ttern of indirect jobs by sector differs significantly from the pattern of GVA,reflecting sharp variations in GVA per job(a crude measure of labour productivity)between industries.An estimated 39,010 indirect jobs were supported by the entire independent schools sector.The indirect tax contribution
131、supported by ISC schools was 389 million in 2021.Within that total,employees income tax and NICs accounted for 176 million(45%),taxes on business purchases,property,and profits for 127 million(33%),and employer NICs for 86 million(22%).The indirect tax impact across the entire independent schools se
132、ctor is put at 455 million.Fig.14:Indirect employment of ISC schools by sector of supplierFig.13:Gross value added supported by ISC schools procurement,by sector of supplierSource:Oxford Economics79 mManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hot
133、elsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesEducationOther services including rent million176 m56 m373 m229 mTotal:1,753million192 m133 m273 m102 m140 mSource:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transp
134、ortCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesEducationOther services including rentHeadcount3204,0804,3306,6702,8103,6006,5302,6601,3601,190Total:33,550jobs21The impact of independent schools on the UK economy2.6 INDUCED ECONOMIC IMPACTS17 Multip
135、liers are typically higher than this for sectors such as manufacturing and retail,where external inputs account for a higher proportion of the value of sales,and the employees own inputs for a lower proportion.This section summarises the induced economic activity supported by ISC schools in 2021,ref
136、lecting the production paid for by the salary-funded expenditure of ISC school staff,and that of employees in the supply chain(which is effectively funded by the schools procurement).In 2021,ISC schools spent an estimated 6.1 billion on staff costs.Taking the supply chain effect into account as well
137、,this was associated with a 5.4 billion induced GVA contribution,and 96,140 induced jobs.The induced tax contribution was 1.9 billion,taking into account taxes on employee spending(such as VAT and excise duties),and taxes on the business activity and staff salaries supported by that spending.The ind
138、uced GVA impact of all independent schools in the UK is estimated to have been 6.5 billion in 2021,supporting 113,420 jobs,and generating 2.3 billion in tax revenues.2.7 TOTAL ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT IN DETAILAcross the direct,indirect,and induced channels of economic impact,ISC schools supported a total
139、 GVA contribution of 14.1 billion in 2021,equivalent to 0.7%of economy-wide UK GVA in the same year.Some 6.9 billion(49%)of that total is accounted for by the schools direct GVA.The indirect and induced GVA contributions,worth 7.2 billion in total,are spread across a wide range of supplying industri
140、es(see Fig.15).As a result,10%of the total GVA impact is accounted for by wholesale,retail,and transport activities,and 8%by professional and financial services.The GVA multiplier is just over two,which is fairly typical for a sector providing services dependent on skilled or knowledgeable employees
141、.17 This reflects the fact that,for every 100 of value added activity generated directly by ISC schools,an additional 105 is supported across the rest of the UK economy.The total GVA contribution of all independent schools within the UK is estimated to have been 16.5 billion in 2021.Fig.15:Total GVA
142、 contribution of ISC schools,by sector of activity,2021Source:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInformation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesEducationOther services including rent
143、 millionTotal:14,070million447 m565 m451 m977 m1,439 m1,245 m7,311 m642 m290 m703 m22The impact of independent schools on the UK economyISC schools also supported a total of 281,980 jobs across the UK economy in 2021,equal to 0.8%of all UK workforce jobs in that year.The number of jobs directly gene
144、rated by ISC schools accounted for 54%of the total employment impact(152,290 jobs)(see Fig.16),while the remaining indirect and induced jobs(totalling 129,690)are spread across a range of mainly consumer-facing services sectorsreflecting the relative importance of the induced effect.As a result,11%o
145、f the total jobs impact occurred in the wholesale,retail,and transport sector,with 9%of all jobs supported found in the catering and hotels sector.The total number of jobs supported across the independent schools sector in the UK is estimated to have been 328,050 in 2021.Finally,in 2021,4.3 billion
146、of tax contributions to the UK exchequer were associated with ISC schools,equal to 0.5%of all tax receipts in that year,and to 154 per UK household.This would have been enough to fund 115,000 full-time nurses.Some 1,729 million(equal to 40%of the total tax supported by ISC schools)is accounted for b
147、y employees income tax and NICs(see Fig.17).An additional 943 million(22%)reflects taxes on business purchases,property and profits,with employer NICs accounting for 823 million(19%),and taxes on employee spending for 819 million(19%).The total estimated tax contribution of all UK independent school
148、s was 5.1 billion in 2021.Fig.17:Total tax contribution of ISC schools,by type of tax,2021Fig.16:Total employment contribution of ISC schools,by sector of activity,2021Source:Oxford EconomicsManufacturing&agricultureMining,energy,water,wasteConstructionWholesale,retail&transportCatering&hotelsInform
149、ation&communicationProfessional&financial servicesBusiness support servicesISC schools(direct impact)Other services including rentHeadcountOther services including rentTotal:281,980jobs30,12026,54011,220152,2904,29010,5507,0201,48010,91017,19010,370Source:Oxford EconomicsEmployer NICsBusiness rates
150、etcTaxes on business purchasesCorporation taxEmployee income taxEmployee NICsTaxes on employee spending millionTotal:4,314million823 m165 m536 m1,086 m643 m819 m243 m23The impact of independent schools on the UK economy24The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3.SAVINGS TO THE TAXPAYERThi
151、s chapter sets out the annual savings made by the Government,and therefore the taxpayer,as a result of independent school pupils not taking up the free UK state school places to which they would otherwise be entitled.These estimates take into account:The number of pupils at independent schools entit
152、led to a UK school place in 2021(set out in Section 3.2 further below).Average recurrent(non-capital)spending per pupil by state schools and trusts in that year(Section 3.3).Adjustments to per-pupil costs to reflect the mix of pupils by school type,region,and background,and existing state support fo
153、r independent school pupils(Section 3.4).The state school capital outlayson land acquisition,building work,and subsequent maintenancethat would also be required if these pupils took up a state school place(Section 3.5).The estimates arrived at in this way should be seen as minimum estimates of the t
154、axpayer savings supported.Potential additional(but unquantifiable)savings,over and above those amounts,are explored in Section 3.6.The methodology underlying the calculations is included in Appendix 5.3.1 SAVINGS TO THE TAXPAYER:KEY FINDINGSThe key finding is that the taxpayer saving made in 2021,as
155、 a result of pupils attending an ISC-affiliated school,was 3.8 billion,with the saving relating to all independent school pupils put at 4.4 billion(see Fig.18).That compares with estimates of 3.0 billion and 3.5 billion,respectively,in the previous report concerned with 2017.As the chart shows,the d
156、ay-to-day running costs of state schooling(recurrent spending)account for the majority of the total estimated taxpayer saving,but potential land costs(on an annualised basis)are fairly significant too.Fig.18:Overview of taxpayer savings in 20211.0 billion per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsRecurrent sp
157、endingLandNew buildingCapital-funded maintenance4.55.04.03.53.02.52.01.500.16ISC schoolsAll independent schools0.53.764.442.800.713.300.860.090.180.1025The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3.2 INDEPENDENT SCHOOL PUPILS ENTITLED TO A UK STATE SCHOOL PLACE18 The allocation of ISC school
158、pupils to special schools is an estimate of the number likely to attend a special school if they moved into the state school sector.The split between primary and secondary is based on age.We estimate that,of the 532,000 pupils attending independent UK schools affiliated to the ISC in January 2022,46
159、0,000 would have been entitled to a UK state school place.This figure includes all pupils who are British nationals,and those from EEA countries whose parents are UK residents,subject to them being in the eligible age range(i.e.aged at least four but no more than 18 on the eve of the school year,31
160、August).Some 42,000 pupils would have been ineligible on the grounds of nationality and/or parents residence,with the remaining 30,000 pupils(mostly of nursery school age)ineligible on the grounds of age alone.Fig.19 shows this breakdown,with a split between primary,secondary,and special school plac
161、es,which affects the cost savings estimates.18 The chart also shows how,based on these estimates,somewhere in the region of 537,000 independent school pupils would have qualified for a UK state school place,out of the 621,000 total.Fig.19:Eligibility of independent school pupils for a free UK state
162、school place7000Thousands of pupilsSource:Oxford EconomicsEntitled to primary placeEntitled to secondaryplaceISC school pupilsAll independentschool pupilsEntitled to special school placeBritish*but outside age range4003002001003Non-British*For these purposes British includes EEA nationals whose pare
163、nts are UK residents.5006003537entitledout of620204282175460entitledout of53226The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3.3 RECURRENT SPENDING PER PUPIL BY STATE-FUNDED SCHOOLS AND TRUSTS19 In this chapter,“eligible ISC school pupil”means a pupil eligible for a free UK state sch
164、ool place.Recurrent spending per state school pupil across the UK is estimated to have been 6,414 in 2021,based on data for school and trust expenditure and pupil numbers from various official sources.This figure includes all state primary,secondary,and special schools.But it excludes nursery school
165、s,and is net of spending funded out of non-state sources.The comparable figure for 2017 was 5,578.As Fig.20 shows,spending per head was somewhat higher in secondary schools than in primary schools.It was significantly higher than the average in the case of special schools,but as they only account fo
166、r a small share of all schools,their effect on the overall average is limited.Estimates at the regional level should be viewed as approximations,due to data limitations.But the pattern in very broad terms looks to be one in which spending per pupil is clearly above-average in London and Scotland,at
167、just over 7,500,with all of the other regions and countries in the 5,400-6,500 range.3.4 TAXPAYER SAVINGS DUE TO RECURRENT SCHOOL SPENDINGTo arrive at the taxpayer saving per eligible ISC school pupil19,from average school spending per state school pupil,four adjustments are needed,as follows:1.The
168、pupil premium for state schools must be deducted,as the share of ISC school pupils potentially eligible is far lower than the share of state school pupils qualifying at present.2.The net cost per pupil needs to be worked out separately,for each type of school in each region,and combined with the num
169、ber of ISC school pupils in each of those categories,to arrive at the average appropriate for ISC school pupils rather than state school pupils.3.The pupil premium should then be added back for those ISC pupils likely to qualify for it.4.Existing state funding for ISC school pupils should then be de
170、ducted.Fig.21 illustrates this calculation.The regional and school type mix pushes up the estimated taxpayer saving per pupil a little,driven by the relatively high share of ISC pupils accounted for by secondary schools,and schools in London(see Fig.22).But this is more than offset by the adjustment
171、s for the pupil premium,and existing state support for pupils at ISC schools.Fig.20:Recurrent school and trust spending per pupil in 20218,0000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsAll schoolsScotland6,0004,0002,000Primary schoolsSecondary schoolsLondonRest of South&EastMidlands&WalesNorth&N Ir
172、eland6,4145,5576,7197,5676,0616,1106,1877,53527The impact of independent schools on the UK economyThe estimated taxpayer saving relating to recurrent state expenditure on schools(as opposed to capital spending)is 2.8 billion.This is calculated by multiplying the per-pupil saving of 6,094,with the nu
173、mber of eligible ISC pupils(460,000).The corresponding figure for all eligible independent school pupils is 3.3 billion,taking the different pattern of pupils by region into account.Fig.21:Derivation of taxpayer savings per ISC school pupil from spending per state school pupilFig.22:State and ISC sc
174、hool pupils by type and location of school6,6000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsSpending per state school pupilAdd ISC schoolpupil premium6,4006,2006,0005,800-402*ISC school pupils eligible for a free UK state school place.Deduct state schoolpupil premiumAdjust for regionand school typeTa
175、xpayer saving perISC school pupil*Deduct existingstate support6,4146,094-100+167+15100%0%of UK totalSource:Oxford EconomicsPrimarySecondaryState school pupils by school typeISC school pupils by region*Special schoolLondon80%60%40%20%2%Scotland*ISC school pupils eligible for a free UK state school pl
176、ace.Rest of UKISC school pupils by school type*State school pupils by region56%42%1%38%61%13%80%7%21%74%5%28The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3.5 TAXPAYER SAVINGS DUE TO CAPITAL OUTLAYSIf a significant number of ISC school pupils moved into the state school sector,then the state wou
177、ld need to build or purchase new schools,requiring it to also acquire or set aside landprobably in higher-cost residential rather than industrial areasand provide extra capital budgets to fund the subsequent building repair work required from time to time.Details of how the estimated savings on capi
178、tal spending were derived,and data sources,are included in Appendix 5,but the key points are as follows:1.Given the number of eligible ISC school pupils,over 950 new schools would be needed,including around 150 in London.2.This would require nearly 2,800 hectares of land,including 550 in London,at a
179、 cost of around 14.5 billion.3.Based on the annual rental value of the land,the cost would be 709 million per year,or 1,542 per ISC school pupil per year.4.The new school buildings would cost 7.8 billion to constructequivalent to 155 million per year assuming a 50-year lifespan,or 338 per pupil per
180、year.5.The cost of school building repair and maintenance work is estimated to be 87 million per annum,or 189 per pupil per year.Total capital-related taxpayer savings for ISC school pupils therefore amounted to 952 million per annum,or 2,069 for each ISC school pupil not taking up their state schoo
181、l place.Variations by school type and regional grouping are illustrated in Fig.23.The average estimated annual taxpayer saving per pupil varies quite markedly by region,and excluding London the national average would be 1,522.The capital-related taxpayer saving for all independent school pupils is e
182、stimated to have been 1.14 billion per annum.Fig.23:Annualised capital-related taxpayer savings per eligible ISC school pupil in 20214,5000 per pupil per annumSource:Oxford EconomicsAll schoolsScotland1,5001,000500Primary schoolsSecondary schoolsLondonRest of South&EastMidlands&WalesNorth&N Ireland3
183、,0002,5002,0004,0003,5002,0691,5752,2434,1701,8541,0588341,07129The impact of independent schools on the UK economy3.6 POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL TAXPAYER SAVINGSThe recurrent costs for state school spending set out in Section 3.3 above relate to state-funded spending by local authority maintained schools
184、 and academy trusts at the primary and secondary levels,including central spending not allocated to individual schools in the case of multi-academy trusts.This equates to 63.4 billion in total,for 2021.However,based on data in the key Treasury public expenditure report,we estimate that net recurrent
185、 spending by all parts of the UK Government would have been around 70.1 billion in that year.The“missing”6.7 billion(680 per pupil)would cover administrative costs borne by national and local authorities,and the cost of grants and other state-funded cash support for primary and secondary school pupi
186、ls.This is shown by the light blue segment in Fig.24,which illustrates recurrent state education spending by category.Fig.24:Estimated recurrent UK state spending on education in 2021,by sub-functionSource:Oxford Economics,based on HM Treasury,Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2021 billionPrim
187、ary and secondary education:schools and trusts spendingPrimary and secondary education:other spendingPre-primary and post-secondaryeducationEducation-related research anddevelopmentStrategy,policy,oversight andinformationStudent support:transport,food,lodging,medical,etcTotal:91.7billion2.3 bn63.4 b
188、n6.7 bn10.1 bn5.7 bn3.4 bn30The impact of independent schools on the UK economyIf the full 680 per-pupil cost translated into additional taxpayer savings,on a one-for-one basis,then the saving per ISC pupil would be pushed to 8,843,rather than 8,163.This would take the total taxpayer saving to 4.1 b
189、illion for ISC school pupils,and 4.8 billion for all independent school pupils.However,there are three reasons why that would overstate the true taxpayer saving:A significant,through unknown,proportion of the administrative costs will be fixed,rather than varying with pupil numbers.Cash support for
190、ISC school pupils moving into the state school sector will not match those paid to existing state school pupils,due to the backgrounds of the pupil involved.A small portion of the cost46 millionreflects existing state support for ISC school pupils.Even so,give the scale and nature of the spending in
191、volved,it is almost certain that there would be some increase in these administrative and pupil support costs,if significant numbers of pupils moved from ISC schools into the state sector.One example of taxpayer savings in this area is teacher induction,where the Independent Schools Teacher Inductio
192、n Panel relieves the state authorities of those costs.School inspection provides a second example,with the self-funded,not-for-profit Independent Schools Inspectorate(ISI),rather than the state-funded body Ofsted,undertaking inspections of ISC schools in England.Here,we estimate that the state saved
193、 3.0 million in the financial year ending March 2021,as a result of not having to inspect ISC schools.The saving in relation to all independent schools was around 4.1 million,taking into account the cost to Ofsted of inspecting non-ISC independent schools,and the fees paid to Ofsted by those schools
194、.(These net taxpayer costs would have been significantly higher,had it not been for Covid-19 restrictions,which limited inspections in 2021.)Finally,state pupils at primary and secondary school levels may benefit from at least a small share of the non-cash support provided to pupils and students(tra
195、nsport,food,lodging and medical,etc,shown by the green segment in Fig.24),in a way that independent school pupils do not.Local authority provision of home-to-school transport for qualifying pupils,specifically attending state rather than independent schools,provides a concrete example of that.31The
196、impact of independent schools on the UK economy32The impact of independent schools on the UK economy4.THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXITThis Chapter explores the potential effect of Covid-19 and Brexit on ISC schools economic impactin 2021.4.1 THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXIT:KEY FINDINGSThe startin
197、g point for this analysis was provided by an assessment of how the schools impacts in 2021 compared with the values that would have occurred,had the pre-2020“trend”growth rates continued in 2020 and 2021.We find that the total GVA impact fell short of that“expected”value by 10.1%,with the total empl
198、oyment impact disappointing expectations by 8.0%.These shortfalls were mainly driven by trends in fee income,which fell short of expectations by 9.0%.Here,while the total number of pupils held up well,average fees per pupil were 8.1%lower than they would have been,on the basis of pre-2020 trends con
199、tinuing.Our analysis suggests that the vast majority of the reduction in GVA and jobs impacts,relative to pre-2020 growth trends,can be attributed to Covid-19.The key driver of the shortfall in arithmetic terms,i.e.the average fee per pupil,is directly related to fee discounts offered to parents in
200、2021(as they had been in 2020),specifically in response to the impact of Covid-19-related restrictions on both the schools offering,and the financial circumstances of some parents.By contrast,it is difficult to identify any clear and unambiguous impact from Brexit in the years concerned(although thi
201、s does not mean that there will not be an impact over the longer term).Trends in pupil numbers are potentially consistent with either a very modest“Brexit effect”,or none at all,in the immediate aftermath of the event.The other main finding of interest is that the direct GVA and employment impacts f
202、ell less sharply than the indirect impacts(see Fig.25 in the case of GVA).That is because fee income is mainly used to cover two types of cost:employment costs,which form the major part of direct GVA and which held up relatively well,and purchases of goods and services from third parties,which suppo
203、rt the indirect impacts,and which were cut significantly.Fig.25:GVA shortfalls in 2021,by channel of impact%of expected GVASource:Oxford EconomicsActual GVA as%expected GVAShortfall as%expected GVA8010060400Direct GVAUK GVA forcomparison20Total GVAimpactInduced GVAIndirectGVA4.895.227.073.09.790.310
204、.189.96.193.933The impact of independent schools on the UK economy4.2 QUANTIFYING GVA SHORTFALLS IN ACTIVITY IN 2021Fig.26:Expected and actual GVA impacts in 2021,by channel4.2.1 Shortfalls in the schools GVA impacts in 2021As shown in Fig.25 above,the direct GVA impact fell short of expected levels
205、 in 2021 by 4.8%,with the total GVA impact disappointing by 10.1%.So direct GVA was adversely affected by the economic squeeze,but by a little less than GVA across the economy as a whole.However,indirect GVA fell short of expectations by a significant 27.0%,reflecting a shortfall in the schools purc
206、hases from third party businesses of a similar magnitude.The shortfall in the induced impact,reflecting the salary-funded spending of school staff,and(less importantly)that of supply chain workers,was 9.7%.Fig.26 shows the actual and expected GVA impacts in 2021,for each channel.The total GVA impact
207、 of 14.1 billion compares with an expected 15.7 billion,while the direct impact of 6.9 billion fell short of the expected 7.2 billion.The total GVA shortfall was therefore 1.6 billion in cash terms.The equivalent shortfall for all independent schools was 1.8 billion.To assess the extent of any short
208、falls in activity in 2021,Oxford Economics used Baines Cutler data on school income,spending,and employment for 2015 and 2019,to estimate the GVA and jobs impacts of ISC schools in those years.The GVA estimates were then rebased to 2021 prices,to control for inflation.The annual trend growth rates i
209、n each of the schools GVA and jobs impacts,for the period prior to 2020,were derived from there.The 2019 impacts were then grown forward to 2021,on the basis of these prior trend growth rates continuing,with the results taken to be the“expected”impacts for that year.The actual 2021 GVA and employmen
210、t out-turns were then compared with the expectations,to arrive at the estimated shortfalls(if any)caused by“economic shocks”.2.0 billionSource:Oxford EconomicsDirect GVAIndirect GVAInduced GVA16.018.014.012.010.08.06.04.00Expected 2021Actual 20216.015.72.47.25.514.11.86.934The impact of independent
211、schools on the UK economyFig.27 shows the GVA estimates for 2015 and 2019,which lie behind the expected 2021 levels:13.4 billion and 14.9 billion(at 2021 prices)in the case of the total impact,and 6.2 billion and 6.9 billion in the case of the direct impact.Further analysis of the data reveals that
212、fee income fell short of expectations by 9.0%,mainly driven by trends in average fees per pupil,rather than total pupil numbers(see Fig.28).In response to this lower fee income,plus the direct effect of Covid-19 restrictions on school activities,procurement from third party businesses counted in ope
213、rating expenditure(“opex”,as opposed to capital expenditure)was cut by 23.0%.So,as direct GVA is the difference between fee income and this type of procurement,it did not fall short of expectations to the same extent as income.Instead,the supply chain was squeezed significantly,with the effect compo
214、unded by the fact that capital procurement(mainly construction work)was cut even more sharply than procurement in opex.Taking that into account,direct and indirect GVA,taken together,fell short by 10.3%.Fig.27:Trend in GVA impacts,2015-2019,and expected and actual GVA impacts in 2021Fig.28:Direct an
215、d indirect GVA shortfall by contributing factorNotes:Fee income=pupil numbers x fees per pupil.Direct GVA=fee income-procurement in opex.Total procurement=procurement in opex+capital procurement.billion,revalued to 2021 pricesSource:Oxford EconomicsTotal GVA impact:trend and actual16.018.012.08.0020
216、1520214.02019Total GVA:trend and actualTotal GVA impact:expectedTotal GVA:expected14.010.06.02.013.46.214.96.96.97.214.115.71000%of expected out-turnSource:Oxford EconomicsPupil numbersDirect+indirect GVA604020Fees per pupilFee incomeProcurement in opexDirect GVATotal procurementIndirect GVAActual a
217、s%expectedShortfall as%expected8098.91.191.98.191.09.077.023.095.24.871.928.173.027.089.710.335The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.29 shows the expected and actual changes between 2019 and 2021 underlying these estimated shortfalls.In total,pupil numbers grew by 1.5%over those two
218、 years,but fees per pupil fell by a cumulative 5.6%,after adjusting for inflation.The direct GVA of the sector edged up by 0.2%,but direct and indirect GVA combined fell by a cumulative 5.5%,compared with the expected increase of 5.4%had pre-2020 growth trends continued.20 Baines Cutler Solutions Lt
219、d,National Independent Schools Benchmarking Survey 2022,The Financial Impact of Covid.4.3 POSSIBLE DRIVERS OF THE GVA SHORTFALLSIn this section we seek to apportion the GVA shortfalls to various potential“drivers”,which could in principle include Covid and Brexit.4.3.1 Covid-19Our main conclusion is
220、 that Covid-19 appears to be the dominant factor behind the squeeze on the sectors GVA impacts in 2021,relative to pre-2020 trends.The above analysis shows that the decline in fee income is mainly driven by average fees per pupil,rather than pupil numbers.This was largely driven by fee discounts giv
221、en by the schools in that year,because of the impact of Covid restrictions on the schools offering,and on the financial circumstances of some parents.204.3.2 Brexit in the short termIn principle,Brexit could have had an impact,had the demand for school places from EEA nationals dropped specifically
222、in response to that eventdue to changed visa arrangements for example.That would directly reduce pupil numbers,and,probably,also cut average fees per pupil,as these pupils are more likely to be boarders than other(mainly UK national)pupils.(Boarding fees are generally higher than day fees.)However,i
223、t is difficult to identify any unambiguous“Brexit effect”from the data on pupil numbers by nationality.As Fig.30 shows,EEA nationals fell by an average of 0.5%per annum in 2020 and 2021,in contrast to annual average growth of 7.7%in the pre-2020 period.But the decline in overseas pupil numbers from
224、outside of the EEA was even more pronounced,with the turnaround between the pre-Brexit and post-Brexit periodswhich determines shortfalls along the lines used in Section 4.2 abovealmost the same for the two overseas pupil groupings.Fig.29:Change in inflation-adjusted GVA impacts,and contributing fac
225、tors,2019-2021Total%change,adjusted for inflationSource:Oxford EconomicsExpected%changeActual%changePupilnumbersFees perpupilFeeincomeProc.inopexDirectGVAProcure-mentindirectGVADirect+ind.GVA100-10-30-205-5-15-252.51.52.7-5.6-4.2-18.7-23.5-22.8-5.55.35.65.26.40.25.85.436The impact of independent sch
226、ools on the UK economyAs the chart also shows,there is a striking variation within the“rest of the world”grouping.There was a sharp drop in pupils from mainland China and the rest of the Asia Pacific region,excluding India and Hong Kong,which was almost certainly driven by the travel-related Covid-1
227、9 restrictions in place at the time.On the other hand,there were very sharp increases in pupils from Hong Kong and the Middle East,between the two years.If both of these groupings are excluded,on the grounds of being“outliers”,then“rest of the world”pupils fell by 0.7%per annum between 2019 and 2021
228、,compared with a 2.7%per year increase in 2015-19.21 The 8.5%shortfall is based on the“best case”,where all of the extra EEA pupils retained in this alternative scenario are assumed to be boarders.22 The main identifiable impact is a sharp decline in imports from the EU,compared with a very modest d
229、ecline in imports from the rest of the world,between 2019 and 2021.But that does not directly affect UK GVA,which relates to domestic production.Exports to the EU also fell between the two years,but exports to the rest of the world fell by almost the same percentage.On that view,the turnaround in th
230、e trend for EEA nationals could be judged to be out of keeping with that of a benchmark group of overseas pupils,with the shortfall in EEA pupil numbers of 15.4%(calculated on the same basis as the shortfalls in Section 4.2)exceeding the 8.2%shortfall for the benchmark group.But even if EEA pupil nu
231、mbers had fallen by 8.2%,rather than 15.4%,total fee income would still have fallen short of expectations by at least 8.5%,versus the actual shortfall of 9.0%.21 That is still consistent with Covid-19 accounting for the vast majority of the shortfall in school income,and the associated economic impa
232、cts,with Brexit having an additional,but very modest effect in 2021.However,another possible interpretation of the data is that Brexit itself had virtually no impact in the years concerned,with the shortfall relative to prior trends entirely explained by Covid-19 restrictions.4.3.3 Brexit in the lon
233、g termThis does not mean that Brexit will not have an effect on the sector over long term.It is possible that the new visa arrangements will prevent EEA pupil numbers from bouncing back,as the Covid-19 threat recedes,in the way that might otherwise have happened.And the sectors fortunes will also be
234、 tied to those of the wider UK economy.In relation to the latter,it is difficult to identify any short-term“Brexit effect”in the UK-wide GVA figures,looking at 2020 and 2021 compared with 2019.22 But total exports and imports were both lower,as a share of total production and income,in 2021 than in
235、2019,and if that remained the case in the longer term,then national productivity and real incomes could grow at a slower rate than otherwise,reflecting a loss of“gains from trade”.That could curb the demand for independent school places by UK resident parents,relative to a hypothetical“no Brexit”sce
236、nario,with losses each year accumulating into more significant losses over time.Fig.30:Trends in pupil numbers by nationality grouping,2015-19 and 2019-21Annual%changeSource:Independent Schools Council;Oxford Economics-2021AllpupilsUKnationalsEEAnationalsTotalHK*&Middle EastAsiaPacific*
237、Allother*20%15%5%-15%-5%10%0%-10%0.7%1.1%*Hong Kong.*Excludes India&Hong Kong.*Non-EEA Europe,Americas,Africa,and India.Rest of World nationals1.1%0.6%7.7%-0.5%4.8%-2.9%3.3%15.8%7.3%-12.8%2.7%-0.7%37The impact of independent schools on the UK economy4.4 SHORTFALLS IN THE SCHOOLS EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS I
238、N 2021Turning to employment,the broad picture is similar to that for GVA.In this case,the shortfall in the direct jobs impact was 4.3%,broadly in line with the shortfall across the UK as a whole(Fig.31).But the total jobs impact disappointed by 8.0%,influenced by the 24.5%shortfall in indirect jobs.
239、Further details of these results can be found in the results tables in Appendix 1.Fig.31:Trend in jobs impacts,2015-2019,and expected and actual jobs impacts in 2021%of expected jobsSource:Oxford EconomicsActual jobs as%expected jobsShortfall as%expected jobs8010060400Direct jobsUK jobs forcompariso
240、n20Total jobsimpactInduced jobsIndirectjobs4.395.724.575.56.793.38.092.03.996.138The impact of independent schools on the UK economyAPPENDIX 1:MAIN RESULTS TABLESINDUSTRY CLASSIFICATIONFig.32:Industry classification used in the charts and tablesSector in this reportSection in UK Standard Industrial
241、ClassificationNotesManufacturing&agricultureAgriculture,forestry,&fishing(A)Manufacturing(C)Includes repair&installation of machinery,except motor vehicle repair.Mining,energy,water,wasteMining&quarrying(B)Electricity&gas supply(D)Water supply,sewerage,and waste management(E)ConstructionConstruction
242、(F)Wholesale,retail&transportWholesale and retail trades;motor vehicle repair(G)Transportation&storage(H)Catering&hotelsAccommodation&food service activities(I)Indirect impacts mainly relate to catering contract workers.Information&communicationInformation&communication(J)Includes telecommunications
243、,computer-related services,broadcasting,publishing,and information services.Professional&financial servicesFinancial&insurance activities(K)Professional,scientific,and technical activities(M)Includes legal work,accountancy,management consultancy,architectural and engineering consultancy,advertising,
244、and design.Business support servicesAdministrative and support service activities(N)Includes leasing activity,employment agencies,travel agencies,security,cleaning,landscaping,office support,and other business support activities.EducationEducation(P)All staff directly employed by schools are counted
245、 here,whatever their role.Other services including rentReal estate activities(L)Mainly renting of propertyPublic administration(O)Taxpayer-funded services are excluded from the indirect and induced impacts,so only private work,and activity funded by fees(e.g.planning fees),is counted.Human health&so
246、cial work(Q)Arts,entertainment,&recreation(R)Recreation includes libraries,museums,gambling,and sports.Other service activities(S)Includes membership organisations,repair of computers and household goods,and personal services such as hairdressing.Activities of households as employers(T)39The impact
247、of independent schools on the UK economyTHE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT:ISC SCHOOLSFig.33:GVA impacts by channel and region billion,2021DirectIndirectInducedTotalEast Midlands0.290.090.380.76East of England0.800.210.621.63London1.550.360.942.84North East0.080.040.210.33North West0.360.090.340.79South East2.0
248、00.491.083.57South West0.680.160.521.36West Midlands0.450.120.461.02Yorkshire&The Humber0.270.090.370.73Scotland0.310.060.200.57Wales0.090.040.240.37Northern Ireland0.000.010.080.09Total6.881.755.4414.07Fig.34:GVA impacts by channel and industry billion,2021DirectIndirectInducedTotalAgriculture-0.01
249、0.060.07Mining including oil-0.000.010.02Manufacturing-0.170.470.64Electricity&gas supply-0.030.140.17Water&waste services-0.020.090.10Construction-0.370.270.64Retail&wholesale-0.130.951.08Transport&storage-0.100.260.36Hotels&catering-0.140.430.56Info&communication-0.100.340.45Financial services-0.0
250、40.430.47Real estate including rent-0.030.580.61Professional services-0.150.360.51Business support services-0.130.320.45Public administration-0.010.060.07Education6.880.270.167.31Health&social care-0.010.150.16Arts&entertainment-0.000.150.15Other services-0.020.190.22Household as employers-0.000.040
251、.04Total6.881.755.4414.0740The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.35:Employment impacts by channel and regionThousands of jobs,2021DirectIndirectInducedTotalEast Midlands2.010.834.16.94East of England47.179.412076.58London16.63.4110.0630.07North East7.351.837.5216.7North West18.234.1
252、1133.33South East11.012.448.6122.06South West6.311.987.0815.37West Midlands8.211.876.6216.7Yorkshire&The Humber27.255.3810.5543.18Scotland2.340.915.318.56Wales5.751.193.8210.76Northern Ireland0.060.21.471.73Total152.2933.5596.14281.98Fig.36:Employment impacts by channel and industryThousands of jobs
253、,2021DirectIndirectInducedTotalAgriculture-0.281.962.24Mining including oil-0.030.040.07Manufacturing-2.386.298.67Electricity&gas supply-0.170.710.88Water&waste services-0.120.410.53Construction-4.082.947.02Retail&wholesale-2.2220.7222.94Transport&storage-2.115.077.18Hotels&catering-6.6719.8726.54In
254、fo&communication-1.193.104.29Financial services-0.322.713.03Real estate including rent-0.222.532.75Professional services-2.495.708.19Business support services-3.606.9510.55Public administration-0.130.730.86Education152.296.533.84162.66Health&social care-0.354.775.12Arts&entertainment-0.133.453.58Oth
255、er services-0.533.654.18Household as employers-0.000.700.70Total152.2933.5596.14281.9841The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.37:Tax impacts by channel and type of tax billion,2021DirectIndirectInducedTotalEmployee income tax0.720.100.261.09Employee NICs0.410.070.170.64Employer NICs
256、0.530.090.210.82Corporation tax0.010.050.180.24Business rates,etc0.020.030.110.16Taxes on business supplies0.300.060.180.54Taxes on employee spending-0.820.82Total1.990.391.934.31THE ECONOMIC FOOTPRINT:ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOLSFig.38:Overview of economic impacts by channelDirectIndirectInducedTotalGVA
257、 impact,billion8.002.056.4716.52Employment impact,thousands175.6239,01113.42328.05Tax impact.billion2.320.462.285.06SAVINGS TO THE TAXPAYERFig.39:Derivation of the taxpayer savings estimateApproximate annual values,2021Value per pupil,Number of pupils,thousandsTotal value,billionRecurrent spending:A
258、nnual spending by state schools and trusts6,4149,88863.43Of which:pupil premium4023.97State spending excluding pupil premium6,01259.45Corresponding saving due to ISC school attendance16,1794602.84Add:saving on pupil premium for ISC school pupils150.01Deduct:existing state funding for ISC school pupi
259、ls21000.05Saving on recurrent spending6,0942.80Capital spending:Saving due to cost or opportunity cost of land31,5420.71Saving due to new building work33380.16Saving due to capital-funded maintenance1890.09Saving on capital spending2,0690.95Total saving:ISC schools8,1633.76Approximate saving:all ind
260、ependent schools48,2635374.44Source:Oxford Economics estimates based on data from the Independent Schools Council and various official sources,as described in Appendix 5.1 Relates to ISC school pupils eligible for a free state school place,excluding the pupil premium.The average per-pupil savings fi
261、gure differs to the average cost per state school pupil,as it is adjusted to reflect the breakdown of ISC pupils by region and type of school.2 Local authority funding and the Government Music and Dance Scheme.3 Annualised costs.4 The average cost per pupil differs to the ISC figure as the scaling-u
262、p is undertaken on a region-by-region basis.42The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.40:State spending on primary and secondary education not in schools budgets billionEstimated total UK net state education expenditure in 2021101.9Of which:net capital outlays10.2Recurrent net state e
263、ducation spending91.7Of which:pre-primary and post-secondary education110.1 applied research and development relating to education25.7 strategy,policy,oversight,and information provision32.3 students transport,food,lodging,and medical support43.4Recurrent net spending on primary and secondary educat
264、ion570.1Of which:included in schools and trusts budgets63.4Primary and secondary education spend not in schools budgets6.71 Class 9.11 and groups 9.3-9.5 in the United Nations Classification of the Functions of Government(COFOG).2 Group 9.7.3 Group 9.8,education not elsewhere classified.4 Group 9.6,
265、subsidiary services to education.5 Class 9.12 and groups 9.2-9.3.Source:Oxford Economics interpolation of HM Treasury,Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2021,and of Department for Education spending statistics.THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND BREXITFig.41:Expected and actual out-turns for ISC GVA and
266、 jobs impacts,and contributing factorsLevels Annual%change2021 shortfall as%expected201520192021 expected2021 actual-2021Pupil numbers(thousands)501.7524.4537.7532.01.1%0.7%1.1%Fees per pupil(at 2021 prices)16,06117,04417,50616,0961.5%-2.8%8.1%billion at 2021 prices:Fee income8.068.949.
267、418.562.6%-2.1%9.0%Procurement in opex1.862.072.191.692.8%-9.8%23.0%Direct GVA6.206.877.226.882.6%0.1%4.8%Capital procurement0.810.951.030.634.0%-18.7%39.0%Total procurement2.673.023.222.313.2%-12.5%28.1%Indirect GVA2.032.272.401.752.9%-12.1%27.0%Direct plus indirect GVA8.239.139.628.632.6%-2.8%10.3
268、%Induced GVA5.165.736.045.452.6%-2.5%9.7%Total GVA impact13.3914.8615.6614.082.6%-2.7%10.1%Thousands of jobs:Direct employment145.1154.3159.1152.31.5%-0.7%4.3%Indirect employment39.142.644.433.52.2%-11.2%24.5%Direct plus indirect employment184.2196.9203.6185.81.7%-2.9%8.7%Induced employment91.899.11
269、03.096.11.9%-1.5%6.7%Total employment impact276.0296.0306.6282.01.8%-2.4%8.0%Notes:Fee income=pupil numbers x fees per pupil.Direct GVA=fee income-procurement in opex.Total procurement=procurement in opex+capital procurement.43The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.42:ISC school pupi
270、l numbers by nationalityNumber of pupils by nationalityAnnual%change2015201920-21Total World501,694524,367531,9911.1%0.7%UK455,839467,130477,1530.6%1.1%France1,6273,0993,14017.5%0.7%Germany2,7673,0983,1602.9%1.0%Spain2,1702,6672,6045.3%-1.2%Ireland1,1921,4381,4054.8%-1.2%Rest of EEA5,92
271、18,0707,8868.0%-1.1%Total EEA13,67718,37318,1957.7%-0.5%Hong Kong4,6125,2747,2163.4%17.0%Middle East1,2041,3501,6712.9%11.3%Russia3,1612,4542,137-6.1%-6.7%Other Europe1,3711,8551,7817.8%-2.0%USA2,9793,9783,9597.5%-0.2%Other Americas1,2231,5551,6296.2%2.4%Nigeria1,5411,3951,395-2.5%0.0%Other Africa1,
272、3611,5911,6714.0%2.5%India1,2421,5191,5735.2%1.8%Mainland China7,06710,6027,82110.7%-14.1%Other Asia Pacific6,4197,2925,7893.2%-10.9%Total Rest of World32,17838,86336,6424.8%-2.9%Of which:Hong Kong&Middle East5,8166,6238,8873.3%15.8%Mainland China&Other Asia Pacific13,48617,89413,6107.3%-12.8%All ot
273、her Rest of World12,87614,34614,1452.7%-0.7%Fig.43:Pupil numbers by nationality:expected and actual out-turns in 2021,and shortfallsLevels 2021 as%expected201520192021 expected42021 actualOut-turnShortfallTotal World501,694524,367537,662531,99198.9%1.1%UK455,839467,130472,881477,153100.9%-EEA13,6771
274、8,37321,51518,19584.6%15.4%Rest of World32,17838,86343,26636,64284.7%15.3%Of which:HK1&Middle East5,8166,6237,0688,887125.7%-Asia Pacific213,48617,89420,79413,61065.4%34.6%All other312,87614,34615,40414,14591.8%8.2%1 Hong Kong.2 Excluding India and Hong Kong.3 Non-EEA Europe,Americas,Africa,and Indi
275、a.4 Expected out-turns are estimated on a country-by-country basis,and then summed to arrive at the regional and global totals.44The impact of independent schools on the UK economyAPPENDIX 2:REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ISC ECONOMIC FOOTPRINTThis appendix looks at the distribution of ISC-affiliated
276、independent schools impacts across Scotland,Wales,Northern Ireland,and the nine Government statistical regions of England.ISC schools are spread across the UK.But,compared with the distribution of state school pupils,the ISC independent school sector is relatively concentrated in the South East of E
277、ngland,and to a lesser extent in London,the East of England,and the South West(see Fig.44).Fig.44:Regional distribution of ISC independent school and state school pupilsFig.45:ISC schools direct GVA as a share of each regions total GVA30%0%of UK totalSource:Oxford EconomicsISC independent school pup
278、ilsState school pupilsSouth EastSouth West25%20%15%10%*The ratio for all ISC schools,including state-funded schools,is 1.5%.LondonEast of EnglandWest MidlandsYorkshire&H.North WestScotlandEast MidlandsNorthern Ireland*North EastWales5%27.0%13.3%20.8%13.3%12.0%9.6%9.5%7.8%6.9%9.5%6.8%11.4%4.8%7.2%4.7
279、%8.5%4.6%7.3%1.6%4.0%1.4%4.8%0.1%3.4%0.80%0.00%of total regional GVASource:Oxford EconomicsSouth EastSouth West0.60%0.40%0.30%0.20%LondonEast of EnglandWest MidlandsYorkshire&H.North WestScotlandEast MidlandsNorthern IrelandNorth EastWales0.10%0.70%0.50%UK0.72%0.51%0.50%0.36%0.34%0.33%0.26%0.22%0.21
280、%0.19%0.14%0.14%0.01%45The impact of independent schools on the UK economyThis has a substantial influence on the pattern of regional performance,in terms of ISCschools direct contribution to GVA,jobs,and tax,and their contribution to savings to the taxpayer.As a share of total regional economic out
281、put,ISC schools direct GVA is highest in the South East,at 0.72%,and also above the national average(0.36%)in the East of England and South West(see Fig.45 and Fig.46).This share is,however,a little below the national average in London,on account of the significant contribution to total economic act
282、ivity made by financial and professional services in that region.It is lowest in Northern Ireland,followed by Wales,the North East,North West,and Scotland.In absolute terms,London and the South East alone account for 48%of ISC school pupils across the UK,for 49%of staff,for 52%of the sectors direct
283、contribution to GVA and tax revenues,and for 54%of estimated taxpayer savings.Fig.46:The direct economic impact of ISC schools,by country and regionISC-affiliated schools in the UKNumber of ISC schoolsNumber of ISC pupilsDirect GVA impact,million per annumDirect jobs impact,head-countDirect tax impa
284、ct,million per annumGVA impact as%total regional GVA1Jobs impact as%total regional jobsTaxpayer savings,millionEast Midlands6924,4692877,350810.26%0.32%140East of England15163,69180318,2302300.51%0.57%419London307110,5591,54727,2504670.34%0.46%1,073North East188,470772,010220.14%0.17%49North West903
285、6,2013578,2101040.19%0.22%213South East376143,7722,00347,1705750.72%0.97%953South West14050,31568216,6001870.50%0.56%302West Midlands10336,48745111,0101240.33%0.37%225Yorkshire&H.6124,7702686,310810.22%0.24%147Scotland3425,4513085,750940.21%0.21%191Wales197,432922,340240.14%0.16%42Northern Ireland33
286、7436010.01%0.01%2UK1,371531,9916,877152,2901,9900.36%0.44%3,7551 GVA excluding owner-occupied rent.Source:Oxford EconomicsLooking at the total contribution to the economy through the three channels of impact,London and the South East account for 46%of the sectors nationwide contribution to GVA,for 4
287、3%of jobs,and for 47%of tax(see Fig.47).As a share of total regional economic output,ISCschools GVA impact is above the average(0.74%)in the South East,East of England,and South West,but below the average in London(see Fig.48).It is lowest in Northern Ireland,followed by Scotland,the North West,and
288、Wales.Note:ISC member schools also have access to a tool allowing them to assess the economic impact of their individual school.This can be accessed via the ISCMember Zone.46The impact of independent schools on the UK economyFig.47:The total economic impact of ISC schools by country and regionISC-af
289、filiated schoolsTotal GVA impact,million per annumTotal jobs impact,headcountTotal tax impact,million per annumGVA impact as%total regional GVA1Jobs impact as%total regional jobsEast Midlands75616,7002200.68%0.72%East of England1,62733,3304961.03%1.04%London2,84143,1809210.62%0.73%North East3316,940
290、920.62%0.58%North West79016,7002390.43%0.44%South East3,57576,5801,1151.29%1.58%South West1,35730,0704041.00%1.02%West Midlands1,02322,0603000.74%0.74%Yorkshire&H.73315,3702180.59%0.57%Scotland57210,7601840.40%0.39%Wales3728,5601000.56%0.59%Northern Ireland911,730240.21%0.20%UK14,070281,9804,3140.74
291、%0.81%1 GVA excluding owner-occupied rent.Source:Oxford EconomicsFig.48:ISC schools total GVA impact as a share of each regions total GVA1.40%0.00%of total regional GVASource:Oxford EconomicsSouth EastSouth West1.00%0.60%0.40%0.20%LondonEast of EnglandWest MidlandsYorkshire&H.North WestScotlandEast
292、MidlandsNorthern IrelandNorth EastWales1.20%0.80%UK1.29%1.03%1.00%0.74%0.74%0.68%0.62%0.62%0.59%0.56%0.43%0.40%0.21%47The impact of independent schools on the UK economyAPPENDIX 3:IMPACT OF BOARDING AT ISC SCHOOLSThis annex outlines the economic contribution of boarding pupils to the total economic
293、footprint of ISC schools identified in Chapter 2.As of early 2022,the total number of boarding pupils at ISC schools is estimated to be 64,800,equal to 12.2%of the 532,000 ISC pupils at UK independent schools.The total number of boarders is therefore around 7%smaller than the number in the previous
294、study for 2017,when boarders accounted for 13.3%of the total.The boarders-to-total ISC pupils ratio varies across regions.Boarders form around 24%of total ISC students within the South West,whereas in London,only 2%of ISC pupils board.Across the direct,indirect,and induced channels of economic impac
295、t,the total GVA impact is 3.1 billion per year(see Fig.49),equal to 22%of the ISCs total GVA impact.ISC school boarders also supported 64,300 jobs,and 0.9 billion in annual tax payments.These impacts reflect the higher level of fees paid by boarders,and the resulting impacts which arise from their c
296、ontribution to the schools income.Within those totals,the direct GVA impact amounted to 1.6 billion in 2021(equal to 51%of the boarders total GVA impact).In addition,boarding pupils supported 37,220 jobs in the ISC schools sector,which directly generated 0.4 billion in annual tax revenues as a resul
297、t.Fig.49:The contribution of boarding to ISC schools economic footprint in the UK3.570,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,0003.02.52.01.51.00.500 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInducedGVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)10,00064,300 jobs21.385.7037.221.210.301.580.430.450.073.09 bill
298、ion0.95 billion48The impact of independent schools on the UK economyAPPENDIX 4:IMPACT OF NON-BRITISH PUPILS AT ISC SCHOOLSThis appendix outlines the contribution made to the UK economy in 2021 by non-British pupils studying at ISC schools.The analysis focuses on three ways in which non-British pupil
299、s support economic activity through the UK:By paying fees,a portion of ISC schools total economic contribution(outlined in chapter 2)can be attributed to non-British pupils.These pupils also make other purchases in the UK,especially in the local area,which would not have taken place had they not att
300、ended schools in this country.Visiting friends and family of non-British pupils are attracted to visit the UK from overseas.These visitors will spend money in the UK economy during their visit,which would have not occurred had the pupils not been resident here.23 23 For the impact of pupils spending
301、 outside of the schools,and the impact of visitor spending,we assume that the impacts attributable to attendance at ISC schools relate only to pupils whose parents live outside the UK.This is because we assume that pupils with parents in the UK would also live in the UK,whether or not they attended
302、an ISC school.As a result,no additional economic impact is made,in those cases,beyond the impacts already captured in Chapter 2.The results presented here will therefore understate the full impact of ISC schools,if some of these families live in the UK specifically because of the ISC school offering
303、.As of early 2022,10%of pupils at independent ISC schools in the UK are non-British.The largest proportion of these students are Chinese,including the 14%of non-British students from mainland China,and the 13%from Hong Kong.An additional 7%of overseas students are from the United States.Some 33%of n
304、on-British pupils are nationals of a European Economic Area(EEA)country.Some 55%of all non-British pupils have parents who live within the UK.Impacts driven by fee payments to ISC schoolsNon-British students whose parents live overseas are estimated to pay 79%more,on average,than the average fees of
305、 all ISC pupils.For non-British pupils whose parents live within the UK,the average fee payments are almost in line with the average of all ISC pupils.Across all three channels of impact,non-British pupils supported 2.0 billion,or 13.8%,of ISC schools total contribution to UK GVA in 2021(see Fig.50)
306、.Some 39,000 jobs and 0.6 billion in tax revenue were supported by payments made to ISC schools by non-British pupils,taking the direct,indirect,and induced impacts into account.Focussing on the direct impact,non-British pupils supported 1.0 billion of the ISC schools direct GVA impact,as well as 21
307、,060 jobs and 0.3 billion in tax revenues payable to the UK exchequer.Fig.50:The contribution of non-British pupils to ISC schools economic footprint,20212.545,00035,00040,00030,00025,00015,0002.01.51.00.500 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDirectIndirectInducedGVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(R
308、HS)20,0005,00010,00039,000 jobs4.6413.3021.060.050.270.280.60 billion0.801.99 billion0.240.9549The impact of independent schools on the UK economyImpacts driven by other pupil expenditureWe estimate that non-British students with parents who live overseas spent 133 million on UK goods and services,o
309、utside of their schools,in 2021.Across all channels of impact,we estimate that this spending supported a total GVA impact of 113 million in 2021,associated with 1,960 jobs and 45 million in tax revenues.(Pupils with parents who live in the UK are excluded from these impacts,as we assume that these p
310、upils would live in the UK whether or not they attended an ISC school.)Impacts driven by the spending of visiting friends and relativesFriends and family visiting pupils in the UK will spend money in the country during their visit.We estimate that visitors to ISC school pupils based in this country,
311、whose parents live overseas,would have spent 7.4 million in the UK in 2021.This spending is estimated to have supported a total GVA contribution of around 6 million,associated with 120 jobs,and 3 million in annual tax revenues.Total economic impact of non-British ISC pupilsCombining the impact of no
312、n-British pupils spending on school fees,their spending on goods and services outside of the schools,and the spending of their visitors,we arrive at the total estimated economic footprint of non-British students within the UK.In total,the pupils supported a GVA contribution of around 2.1 billion in
313、2021,associated with 41,080 jobs and 0.6 billion in tax revenues(see Fig.51).Non-British pupils with parents who live overseas account for 62%of this total,reflecting the influence of higher boarding fees.The first impact,relating to fees paid to the ISC schools,is a component of the schools own eco
314、nomic footprint captured in Chapter 2,and so is not“additional”to the impact of the schools.However,the impact of other student spending(on non-fee related items),and the impacts arising when visiting family and friends spend money in the UK,are“additional”impacts,which would not have occurred had t
315、he pupils not attended ISC schools.The“additional”impact of non-British students is,therefore,estimated to have been 119 million in terms of annual GVA,in 2021,associated with 2,080 jobs and 47 million in annual tax revenue.Fig.51:Total economic impact of non-British pupils at ISC schools2.545,00035
316、,00040,00030,00025,00015,0002.01.51.00.500 billion per annumHeadcountSource:Oxford EconomicsDue to school feesDue to other pupil spendingDue to visitor spendingGVA(LHS)Tax(LHS)Jobs(RHS)20,0005,00010,0002.11 billion13.300.010.600.110.65 billion0.0030.04541,080 jobs0.121.9639.0050The impact of indepen
317、dent schools on the UK economyAPPENDIX 5:METHODOLOGYECONOMIC FOOTPRINT24 An input-output table is an officially-published matrix,showing transactions between different domestic industries,sales by those industries to final customers of different types(e.g.domestic households or overseas customers),a
318、nd purchases by those industries from suppliers overseas.Taxes on products such as excise duties and unrefunded VAT,paid by the purchaser but not received by the supplier,are also identified separately.25 In the case of goods,this value is split between the manufacturer and wholesaler,where the latt
319、ers share is the“gross margin”made on trading in the producti.e.the profit before accounting for any business running costs.ISC schools direct impactsOxford Economics was provided by ISC with details of the number of pupils,teachers,teaching assistants,and schools,by region and type of school(e.g.pr
320、imary or secondary),for ISC schools and all independent schools,as of January 2022.Additional data on the ISC pupil profile,such as nationality,ages,and the split between boarders,day pupils at boarding schools,and day school pupils,were also provided,and further information was available in the ISC
321、 Census and Annual Report 2022.In addition,we were provided with data on ISC schools income and spending per pupil,on a region-by-region basis,by Baines Cutler Solutions Ltd.These relate to the academic year ending in August 2021,and are based on a sample of ISC schools covering over 70%of all ISC s
322、chool pupils.This dataset also provided data on school employees of all types,including support staff.Oxford Economics then estimated the following categories of expenditure and profits,for all ISC schools,based on the Baines Cutler data,but scaled up to all ISC schools using the appropriate ratio f
323、or pupil numbers on a region-by-region basis.The estimates relate only to the schools core operations(teaching,extra-curricular activities,accommodation,and catering,etc),excluding trading,fundraising,and financing activities.Total employment costs for all teachers,teaching support staff,and other d
324、irectly-employed support staff(e.g.catering staff where these roles are not contracted out).Payments to third party businesses and authorities,within core operating expenditure.Capital depreciation.The financial surplus on core activities(equivalent to EBITprofits before interest and corporation tax
325、in company accounts).Oxford Economics then estimated how the above payments to third parties would be split between the following categories,based on ratios for the non-state education sector in the most recent,detailed version of the UK input-output table.24 Payments of“taxes on production”to UK au
326、thorities,such as business property rates,business vehicle excise duty,and the apprenticeship levy.“Taxes on products”built into the cost of supplies purchased,such as unrefunded VAT,“green”levies added by electricity suppliers,and petrol duty on transport for business purposes.Amounts received by s
327、uppliers of goods and services based overseas,net of UK taxes.Net-of-tax amounts received by domestic suppliers,on an industry-by-industry basis.25Direct GVA was then taken as the sum of employment costs,capital depreciation,the financial surplus,and“taxes on production”.(Employment costs account fo
328、r the overwhelming majority of these contributors.Capital depreciation is modest by comparison,while the financial surplus and taxes on production are very limited.)Direct employment was worked out as the total of all teaching and support staff,on a headcount basis.This was scaled up from the sample
329、 to the ISC school total,in line with pupil numbers on a region-by-region basis.The direct tax contribution was then estimated by Oxford Economics,taking into account the above income and spending categories,implied average employee salaries,and features of the UK tax system in 2021.This covers the
330、following taxes:Income tax and national insurance paid by employees through the schools PAYE system Employers national insurance contributions.51The impact of independent schools on the UK economy Corporation tax.Taxes on production(mainly business rates).Taxes on products purchased(mainly unrefunde
331、d VAT).It should be noted that the direct tax impact figures are estimates based on broad features of the UK tax system,and do not take all of the nuances of the UK tax system into account.They are not based on specific information about the schools tax payments,and so may not reflect either the amo
332、unts actually paid,or the tax liability,in a fully accurate way.They do however take the broad principles of the system applied to independent schools into account,for example the lack of VAT on school fees,the inability to reclaim VAT on items purchased,and limited payments of business rates.ISC sc
333、hools indirect impactsThe starting point for the indirect(supply chain)impact is formed by the net-of-tax amounts received by domestic suppliers,on an industry-by-industry basis.For this study,these purchases include items of a capital nature,based on capital expenditure data also provided by Baines Cutler,with an allowances for taxes and imports as estimated by Oxford Economics using relevant inp