1、Color gradient or Image placeholder October 2019 Research Institute Global wealth report 2019 Thought leadership from Credit Suisse and the worlds foremost experts 2 Editorial Ten years ago, the Credit Suisse Research Institute launched the first Global wealth report providing the most comprehensive

2、 and up-to- date survey of household wealth. Since then the Global wealth report has become the standard reference point to monitor wealth growth across countries and the extent to which wealth inequalities are widening or narrowing. For the past decade, global wealth creation has centered around Ch

3、ina and the United States. This year, the United States extended its un- broken spell of wealth gains, which began after the global financial crisis in 2008. The United States also accounts for 40% of dollar million- aires worldwide and for 40% of those in the top 1% of global wealth distribution. W

4、ealth in China started the century from a lower base, but grew at a much faster pace during the early years. It was one of the few countries to avoid the impact of the global financial crisis. Chinas progress has enabled it to replace Europe as the principal source of global wealth growth and to rep

5、lace Japan as the country with the second-largest number of millionaires. More tellingly, China overtook the United States this year to become the country with most people in the top 10% of global wealth distribution. The rest of the world has not stood still. Other emerging markets India in particu

6、lar have made a steady contribution, which we expect to continue over the next five years. However, overall worldwide growth was modest in the 12 months up to mid-2019. Aggregate global wealth rose by USD 9.1 trillion to USD 360.6 trillion, representing a growth rate of 2.6%. Wealth per adult grew b

7、y just 1.2% to USD 70,850 per adult in mid-2019. The number of new millionaires was also relatively modest, up 1.1 million to 46.8 million. The United States added 675,000 new- comers, more than half of the global total. Japan and China each contributed more than 150,000, but Australia lost 124,000

8、millionaires following a fall in average wealth. To mark its tenth anniversary, this years report examines in more detail the underlying factors for the evolution of wealth levels and wealth dis- tribution. The growth records of countries can be quite different depending on whether wealth is measure

9、d in US dollars or domestic currencies, or in nominal or inflation-adjusted units. In the longer term, the most successful countries are those that succeed in raising wealth as a multiple of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by addressing institutional and financial-sector deficiencies. This can result i

10、n a virtuous cycle in which higher wealth stimulates GDP growth, which in turn raises aggregate wealth. China, India and Vietnam provide examples of this virtuous cycle in action. Second, the report looks at the evolution of wealth inequality. The bottom half of wealth holders collectively accounted

11、 for less than 1% of total global wealth in mid-2019, while the richest 10% own 82% of global wealth and the top 1% alone own 45%. Global inequality fell during the first part of this century when a narrowing of gaps between countries was rein- forced by declining inequality within countries. While

12、advances by emerging markets contin- ued to narrow the gaps between countries, inequality within countries grew as economies recovered after the global financial crisis. As a result, the top 1% of wealth holders increased their share of world wealth. This trend appears to have abated in 2016 and glo

13、bal inequality is now likely to edge downward in the immediate future. Given some of this years intriguing findings, we hope you will find the Global wealth report 2019 a valuable source of information and wish you interesting reading. Urs Rohner Chairman of the Board of Directors Credit Suisse Grou

14、p AG Global wealth report 20193 02 Editorial 05 Global wealth 2019: The year in review 17 The evolution of wealth levels 25 The evolution of wealth distribution 37 Wealth outlook 43 Wealth of nations 44 United States Growth amid worries 45 China Stalled growth 46 India Still growing 47 Russia Changi

15、ng fortunes 48 Germany Holding pattern 49 United Kingdom On the brink? 50 Switzerland View from the top 51 Singapore Renewed growth 52 Japan Keeping calm 53 South Korea Carrying on 54 Indonesia Renewed growth 55 South Africa Little movement 56 Brazil South American giant 57 Chile Latin American weal

16、th leader 58 Canada Paused growth 59 Australia Still resilient 60 About the authors 61 General disclaimer / important information For more information, contact: Richard Kersley Head Global Thematic Research, Global Markets Credit Suisse International richard.kersleycredit- Nannette Hechler-Faydherbe

17、 Chief Investment Officer International Wealth Management and Global Head of Economics the figures for earlier years indicate year-end values. The Forbes annual global list of billionaires is used to improve the estimates of wealth holdings above USD 1 million. The Forbes data is pooled for all year

18、s since 2000, and well-established statistical techniques are then applied to estimate the inter- mediate numbers in the top tail. This produces plausible values for the global pattern of asset holdings in the high net worth (HNW) category from USD 1 million to USD 50 million, and in the ultra-high

19、net worth (UHNW) range from USD 50 million upward. Further details are given in the Global wealth databook 2019. 16 GettyImages, golero Global wealth report 201917 The evolution of wealth levels James Davies and Anthony Shorrocks The century began with a “golden age” of robust and inclusive wealth c

20、reation. But wealth collapsed during the financial crisis and growth never recovered to the level experienced earlier. This chapter examines the evolution of the level of wealth this century. We document the seismic change at the time of the financial crisis, when China and other emerging market eco

21、nomies took over as the engine of wealth creation. We also explore how GDP growth and variations in the wealth/GDP ratio help explain trends over time in wealth levels for individual countries. The end of the “golden age” This century, household wealth experienced two distinct phases. The early year

22、s saw the most remarkable spell of wealth creation in recent history. It was notable not only for the rapid expansion total wealth grew at an annual rate exceeding 10% but also for the breadth of coverage. Wealth increased significantly in every region of the world. Emerging market econo- mies, espe

23、cially China and India, did not simply benefit from this growth, but drove much of the action. Coverage of assets was broad too, with both financial assets and non-financial assets rising at a fast pace. Last but not least, it was socially inclusive: all levels of the wealth pyramid shared in the re

24、wards. This golden age came to an abrupt halt with the global financial crisis. While glimpses of the past occasionally resurface, robust wealth growth has not been sustained for any length of time. In fact, real global wealth per adult has fallen one third of the time since 2007. Source: James Davi

25、es, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 1: Global trends in assets and debts per adult, 200019 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Net worth Financial wealth Non-financial wealth

26、Debt USD 18 Trends in nominal global wealth Figure 1 illustrates some of the core compo- nents of the evolution this century of house- hold wealth measured in current US dollars. On this nominal basis, global wealth per adult initially rose from USD 31,410 in 2000 to USD 53,850 in 2007 before droppi

27、ng back to USD 48,500 during the financial crisis. Growth resumed after 2008, but at a lower and more erratic pace. Global wealth per adult in mid- 2019 is USD 70,840, representing average annual growth of 3.7% since 2008 compared to 8.0% before the crisis. Figure 1 also shows the performance of fin

28、ancial versus non-financial wealth this century. Financial wealth exceeded non-financial wealth at the start, but non-financial assets grew faster in the pre- crisis era. By 2007, they each accounted for half of global household wealth. Post-crisis, financial assets recovered quickly, fueled by a wo

29、rldwide upsurge in equity markets. The growth rate was not far short of that experienced in the pre-crisis years. However, non-financial assets grew very sluggishly after 2008. By 2016, they were barely above the pre-crisis peak. They have fared better more recently and the gap with financial assets

30、 has narrowed. However, financial assets remain clearly ahead in household portfolios worldwide, accounting for 55% of gross wealth in mid-2019. Household debts showed more extreme trends both before and after the financial crisis, doubling in the period 200007, but showing almost no change since th

31、en. Exchange rates and real wealth Previous editions of the Global wealth report have focused on wealth measured in current US dollars. There are practical reasons for doing so a common currency unit is needed to compare country performance and to provide estimates for regions and the world as a who

32、le. But it is also a potential source of distortions, which can in- fluence assessments. This is particularly true for year-to-year changes in a countrys total wealth, average wealth and the number of millionaires. In Figure 1, for example, annual fluctuations in average wealth are largely attributa

33、ble to short- term exchange rate movements as the US dollar appreciates or depreciates over time. Replacing current exchange rates with 5-year average ex- change rates yields smoother graphs and often eliminates instances where growth has been negative when measured in current US dollars. Another is

34、sue is the reliance on nominal rather than real currency units. This is less important over short time periods, but becomes problematic over the two decades covered by our data. A US dollar now is worth only 69% of its value in the year 2000; millionaires now would need assets worth USD 1,438,885 to

35、 compare properly with their counter- parts at the start of the century. When assessing the performance of countries in more detail, as we do here, the natural basis for evaluation is the local currency unit (LCU), rather than USD, and real rather than nominal values since inflation may otherwise di

36、stort the underlying trends. Figure 2 illustrates the implications of changing the valuation unit by comparing the average annual growth rate of wealth per adult calculated in USD, real USD, LCU and real LCU, using the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator to convert from nominal to real units. Resu

37、lts are given for a representative selection of countries and ordered in terms of the growth rate in real LCU. China has performed extremely well under any criteria and heads the ranking for three of Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 2:

38、Growth of wealth per adult using alternative currency units, selected countries, 200019 -10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Mexico South Africa Japan Switzerland Germany United States United Kingdom Canada Chile Singapore Australia Indonesia France Brazil Turkey Thailand Poland Korea Sweden Vietnam

39、Russia India China USDreal USDLCUreal LCU Global wealth report 201919 them. However, in terms of growth of wealth per adult in LCU, China is fractionally behind Vietnam and falls some way short of Turkey and Russia. In these three countries, high wealth growth is accompanied by high inflation which

40、flatters the comparison in nominal LCU. More generally, emerging markets and developing countries ex- perience higher inflation than developed nations. This leads to faster growth in LCU terms, but this premium disappears once inflation is taken into account. Converting into USD performs a similar f

41、unction, since exchange rates reflect domestic in- flation relative to inflation in the United States. But the USD exchange rate reflects other factors as well, so that wealth growth in real US dollars does not exactly match growth in real LCU. The results given in Figure 2 show that real wealth gro

42、wth has tended to be higher when measured in USD, suggesting that the US dollar has depreciated on balance against other currencies this century. Another notable feature of Figure 2 is the strong wealth performance of transition nations (China, Russia, Vietnam and Poland), which is perfectly underst

43、andable. State ownership severely limits opportunities for private wealth, so that when these restrictions are relaxed, there is usually a catch-up period during which private businesses are established and thrive, and asset markets open up. Further stimulus is provided when state-owned assets espec

44、ially land and housing are given away or sold at discounted rates. It is sometimes forgotten, however, that transition is a one-time event, not to be repeated. It will be more difficult for transition countries to maintain the growth achieved in the early years of reforms. Source: James Davies, Rodr

45、igo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 3: Annual growth (%) of real wealth per adult (in real USD) by country type, 200019 The contribution of emerging markets Emerging markets have become increasing- ly important to the world economy and this is reflected in their co

46、ntribution to the evolution of global household wealth. Figure 3 provides a breakdown of growth of global wealth per adult in real USD into the contributions of six groups of countries: China, Other emerging markets, Europe, High-income Asia-Pacific, North America, and Other countries. China is repo

47、rted separately from the other emerging markets because it would otherwise dominate the category. Emerging markets have become increas- ingly important to the world economy The overall picture confirms the rapid wealth expansion at the start of the century followed by a more subdued and more erratic

48、 growth record in the period since 2007. While China and other emerging markets grew at fast pace in the early years, they did so from a low base. As a result, their contribution to global wealth growth was quite modest until 2007. Instead, and perhaps surprisingly, Europe is revealed as the dominan

49、t source of wealth growth in the pre-crisis years, contributing more than half of the rise in world wealth per adult in real USD. North America is in second place, averaging 19% of the global rise. Of course, both Europe and North America started with a large stock of wealth. But Europes contribution is also greatly flattered by exchange- rate appreciation: the euro gained 67% against the US dollar between 2001 and 2007. Valuing Eurozone wealth at year 2000 exchange rates would reduce European wealth in 2007 by 25% and global we