1、The next frontier Human development and the Anthropocene Human Development Report 2020 Copyright 2020 By the United Nations Development Programme 1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017 USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any

2、 form or by means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. Sales no.: E.21.III.B.1 ISBN: 978-92-1-126442-5 eISBN: 978-92-1-005516-1 Print ISSN: 0969-4501 eISSN: 2412-3129 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library and Librar

3、y of Congress General disclaimers. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) concerning the lega

4、l status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The findings, analysis, and recommendations of this

5、 Report, as with previous Reports, do not represent the official position of the UNDP or of any of the UN Member States that are part of its Executive Board. They are also not necessarily endorsed by those mentioned in the acknowledgments or cited. The mention of specific companies does not imply th

6、at they are endorsed or recommended by UNDP in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. Some of the figures included in the analytical part of the report where indicated have been estimated by the HDRO or other contributors to the Report and are not necessarily the official s

7、tatistics of the concerned country, area or territory, which may use alternative methods. All the figures included in the Statistical Annex are from official sources. All reasonable precautions have been taken by the HDRO to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the publishe

8、d material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall the HDRO and UNDP be liable for damages arising from its use. Printed in the USA, by AGS, an RR Donnell

9、ey Company, on Forest Stewardship Council certified and elemental chlorine-free papers. Printed using vegetable-based ink. Design by StudioMnemonic. The 2020 Human Development Report The 30th Anniversary 2020 Human Development Report is the latest in the series of global Human Development Reports pu

10、blished by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) since 1990 as independent and analytically and empirically grounded discussions of major development issues, trends and policies. Additional resources related to the 2020 Human Development Report can be found online at http:/hdr.undp.org. Re

11、sources on the website include digital versions and translations of the Report and the overview in more than 10 languages, an interactive web version of the Report, a set of background papers and think pieces commissioned for the Report, interactive data visualizations and databases of human develop

12、ment indicators, full explanations of the sources and methodologies used in the Reports composite indices, country profiles and other background materials, and previous global, regional and national Human Development Reports. Corrections and addenda are also available online. The cover conveys the c

13、omplex connections between people and the planet, whose interdependence is a hallmark of the Anthropocene. The image evokes the many possibilities for people and planet to flourish if humanity makes different development choices, ones that aim to enhance equity, foster innovation and instill a sense

14、 of stewardship of nature. The next frontier Human development and the Anthropocene Human Development Report 2020 The next frontier Human development and the Anthropocene HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2020 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2020 Team Director and lead author Pedro Conceio Research and statistics J

15、acob Assa, Cecilia Calderon, Fernanda Pavez Esbry, Ricardo Fuentes, YuChieh Hsu, Milorad Kovacevic, Christina Lengfelder, Brian Lutz, Tasneem Mirza, Shivani Nayyar, Josefin Pasanen, Carolina Rivera Vzquez, Heriberto Tapia and Yanchun Zhang Production, communications, operations Rezarta Godo, Jon Hal

16、l, Seockhwan Bryce Hwang, Admir Jahic, Fe Juarez Shanahan, Sarantuya Mend, Anna Ortubia, Yumna Rathore, Dharshani Seneviratne and Marium Soomro iiHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT / 2020 Foreword Hidden in the long shadow of Covid19, 2020 has been a dark year. Scientists have been forewarning a pandemic like

17、 this for years, pointing to the rise in zoonotic pathogens those that jump from animals to humans as a reflection of the pressures people put on planet Earth. Those pressures have grown exponentially over the past 100 years. Humans have achieved incredible things, but we have taken the Earth to the

18、 brink. Climate change, ruptur ing inequalities, record numbers of people forced from their homes by conflict and crisis these are the results of societ ies that value what they measure instead of measuring what they value. In fact, the pressures we exert on the planet have become so great that scie

19、ntists are considering whether the Earth has entered an entirely new geological epoch: the Anthro pocene, or the age of humans. It means that we are the first people to live in an age defined by human choice, in which the dominant risk to our survival is ourselves. Advancing human development while

20、erasing such plan etary pressures is the next frontier for human development, and its exploration lies at the heart of this 30th anniversary edition of UNDPs Human Development Report. To survive and thrive in this new age, we must redesign a path to progress that respects the intertwined fate of peo

21、ple and planet and recognizes that the carbon and material footprint of the people who have more is choking the op portunities of the people who have less. For example, the actions of an indigenous person in the Amazon, whose stewardship helps protect much of the worlds tropical forest, offsets the

22、equivalent of the carbon emissions of a person in the richest 1percent of people in the world. Yet indigenous peoples continue to face hardship, persecution and discrimination. Four thousand generations could live and die before the carbon dioxide released from the Industrial Revolution to today is

23、scrubbed from our atmosphere, and yet decision makers continue to subsidize fossil fuels, prolonging our car bon habit like a drug running through the economys veins. And while the worlds richest countries could experience up to 18 fewer days of extreme weather each year within our life time because

24、 of the climate crisis, the poorest countries face up to 100 extra days of extreme weather. That number could still be cut in half if the Paris Agreement is fully implemented. It is time to make a change. Our future is not a question of choosing between people or trees; it is neither or both. When t

25、he Human Development Report first challenged the primacy of growth as the measure of progress in 1990, the Cold War still shaped geopolitics, the World Wide Web had just been invented and very few people had heard of climate change. In that moment UNDP offered a forward looking alternative to GDP, r

26、anking all countries by whether people had the freedom and opportunity to live a life they valued. In so doing, we gave voice to a new conversation on the meaning of a good life and the ways we could achieveit. Thirty years on, much has changed, but hope and possi bility have not. If people have the

27、 power to create an entirely new geological epoch, then people also have the power to choose to change. We are not the last generation of the Anthropocene; we are the first to recognize it. We are the ex plorers, the innovators who get to decide what this the first generation of the Anthropocene wil

28、l be remembered for. Will we be remembered by the fossils we leave behind: swaths of species, long extinct, sunken and fossilized in the mud alongside plastic toothbrushes and bottle caps, a legacy of loss and waste? Or will we leave a much more valu able imprint: balance between people and planet,

29、a future that is fair and just? The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthro- pocene sets out this choice, offering a thoughtprovoking, necessary alternative to paralysis in the face of rising poverty and inequalities alongside alarming planetary change. With its new, experimental Planetary p

30、ressuresadjusted Human Development Index, we hope to open a new conversation on the path ahead for each country a path yet unexplored. The way forward from Covid19 will be the journey of a gen eration. We hope it is one that all people will choose to travel together. Achim Steiner Administrator Unit

31、ed Nations Development Programme FOREWORDiii HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2020 Acknowledgements Every person, everywhere in the world, has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Amidst untold suffering the process of producing a Human Devel- opment Report often appeared less urgent over the course of 2

32、020. The Report team felt the need to document the unfolding and devastating impact of the pandemic on human develop- ment, supporting UNDPs response to the crisis. The well planned process of consultations and team meetings had to be scrapped or changed in unprec- edented ways. This implied reinven

33、t- ing the Reports typical production process. At many points it seemed that the Report simply could not be finished on time. Doing so was possible only because of the conviction that the Report had something important to say that speaks to this years crisis, the obligation to honour 30 years of Hum

34、an Development Reports and the encouragement, generosity and contributions of so many, recognized only imperfectly and partially in these acknowledgments. The members of our Advisory Board, led by Tharman Shanmugaratnam and A. Michael Spence as CoChairs, supported us in multiple and long vir tual me

35、etings, providing extensive ad vice on four versions of lengthy drafts. The other members of the Advisory Board were Olu Ajakaiye, Kaushik Basu, Haroon Bhorat, Gretchen C. Daily, Marc Fleurbaey, Xiheng Jiang, Ravi Kanbur, Jaya Krishnakumar, Melissa Leach, Laura Chinchilla Miranda, Thomas Pik etty, J

36、anez Potonik, Frances Stewart, Pavan Sukhdev, Ilona Szab de Carv alho, Krushil Watene and Helga Weisz. Complementing the advice from our Advisory Board, the Reports Statisti cal Advisory Panel provided guidance on several methodological and data aspects of the Report, in particular re lated to the c

37、alculation of the Reports human development indices. We are grateful to all the panel members: Mario Biggeri, Camilo Ceita, Ludgarde Coppens, Koen Decancq, Marie Hal dorson, Jason Hickel, Steve Macfeely, Mohd Uzir Mahidin, Silvia Montoya, Shantanu Mukherjee, Michaela Sai sana, Hany Torky and Dany Wa

38、zen. Many others without a formal ad visory role offered advice, including Ins L. Azevedo, Anthony Cox, Andrew Crabtree, Erle C. Ellis, Eli Fenichel, Victor Galaz, Douglas Gollin, Judith Macgregor, Ligia Noronha, Belinda Reyers, Ingrid Robeyns, Paul Schreyer, Amartya Sen, Nicholas Stern, Joseph E. S

39、tiglitz, Izabella Teixeira and Duncan Wingham. We are thankful for especially close collaborations with our partners at the World Inequality Lab, including Lucas Chancel and Tancrde Voituriez, and with colleagues at the United Nations Environment Programme, including Inger Andersen, Mara Jos Baptist

40、a, Maxwell Gomera, Pushpam Kumar, Cornelia Pretorius, Steven Stone and Merlyn Van Voore, and at the Inter national Science Council, including Eve El Chehaly, Mathieu Denis, Peter Gluckman, Heide Hackmann, Binyam Sisay Mendisu, Dirk Messner, Alison Meston, Elisa Reis, Asuncin Lera St. Clair, Megha Su

41、d and Zhenya Tsoy, with whom we partnered to initiate an ongoing conversation on rethinking human development. We are grateful for the opportunity to present to and receive feedback from the Interna tional Resource Panel and for the close collaboration with and support from the Stockholm Resilience

42、Centre at Stockholm University. Appreciation is also extended for all the data, written inputs and peer re views of draft chapters to the Report, in cluding those by Nuzhat Ahmad, Sabina Alkire, Simon Anholt, Edward Barbier, Scott Barrett, Kendon Bell, Joaqun Ber nal, Christelle Cazabat, Manqi Chang

43、, Ajay Chhibber, David Collste, Sarah Cor nell, Bina Desai, Simon Dikau, Andrea S. Downing, Maria Teresa Miranda Espino sa, David Farrier, Katherine Farrow, John E. Fernndez, Eduardo Flores Mendoza, Max Franks, William Gbohoui, Arunab ha Ghosh, Oscar Gomez, Nandini Harihar, Dina Hestad, Solomon Hsia

44、ng, Inge Kaul, Axel Kleidon, Fanni Kosvedi, Jan. J. Kuiper, Timothy M. Lenton, Wolf gang Lutz, Khalid Malik, Wolf M. Mooij, Michael Muthukrishna, Karine Nyborg, Karen OBrien, Carl Obst, Jos Antonio Ocampo, Toby Ord, Ian Parry, Catherine Pattillo, Jonathan Proctor, Francisco R. Rodrguez, Valentina Ro

45、tondi, Roman Seidl, Uno Svedin, Jeanette Tseng, Iaki Permanyer Ugartemendia, David G. Vic tor, Gaia Vince and Dianneke van Wijk. A number of virtual consultations with thematic and regional experts were held between February and September 2020, and physical consul tations were held in New York; in t

46、he Republic of Korea, hosted by UNDPs Seoul Policy Centre; and in Zimbabwe, hosted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. We are grateful for inputs during these consultations by Lilibeth AcostaMichlik, Bina Agar wal, Sanghoon Ahn, Joseph Aldy, Ales sandra Alfieri, Frans Berkhout, Ste

47、ve Brumby, Anthony Cak, Hongmin Chun, Keeyong Chung, William Clark, Flavio Comin, Adriana Conconi, Fabio Corsi, Diane Coyle, Rosie Day, Fiona Dove, Paul Ekins, Marina FischerKowalski, Enrico Giovannini, Pamela Green, Peter Haas, Raya Haffar El Hassan, Mark ivHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT / 2020 Halle, St

48、phane Hallegatte, Laurel Hanscom, Gordon Hanson, Ilpyo Hong, Samantha Hyde, Sandhya Seshadri Iyer, Nobuko Kajiura, Thomas Kalin owski, Simrit Kaur, Asim I. Khwaja, Yeon soo Kim, Randall Krantz, Sarah Lattrell, Henry Lee, David Lin, Ben Metz, James Murombedzi, Connie Nshemereirwe, John OumaMugabe, Ji

49、hyeon Irene Park, Richard Peiser, Richard Poulton, Isabel Guerrero Pulgar, Steven Ram age, Forest Reinhardt, Katherine Rich ardson, Jin Hong Rim, Giovanni Ruta, Sabyasachi Saha, Saurabh Sinha, Ingvild Solvang, Yo Whan Son, Tanja Srebotnjak, Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Philip Thigo, Charles Vrsmarty, Rob ert Watson and Kayla Walsh. Further support was also extended by others too numerous to mention here. Consultations are listed at http:/ hdr.undp.org/en/towardshdr2020, with more partners and participants mentioned at