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1、 Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Table_Main 研究报告 Research Report 28 Oct 202
2、2 中资美元债市场研究中资美元债市场研究专题专题 中资房地产行业离岸和在岸债券对比分析 Analysis of Offshore and Onshore Bonds in Chinese Real Estate Industry MarkitMarkit iBoxxiBoxx 亚洲中资美元债房地产指数走势亚洲中资美元债房地产指数走势 Source:Wind,HTI 中证地产债、信用债指数走势中证地产债、信用债指数走势 Source:Wind,HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)投资投资要点要点 房地产离岸债券市场以低评级民企为主,房地产
3、离岸债券市场以低评级民企为主,新增新增融资规模下滑,融资规模下滑,未来偿债压力较高。未来偿债压力较高。2022 年房地产在岸离岸市场融资规模双降,在岸市场降幅较缓。房地产离岸市场以高收益和无评级公司为主,到期分布在 2023 年最多。在岸房地产债券市场以高评级公司为主,未来三年到期分布较为平均。离岸房地产债新增融资大幅下滑,高收益及无评级公司未来再融资压力大。三季度两个市场新增融资同比降幅较二季度收窄,融资环境有一定改善。央企国企主导房地产在岸债券市场,融资成本降低,离岸民企央企国企主导房地产在岸债券市场,融资成本降低,离岸民企债券频展期,融资环境待改善。债券频展期,融资环境待改善。在岸房地产
4、债发行人以国企央企为主,模式以公司债和中期票据为主,2022 年融资成本下降。离岸房地产债市场以民企发行人为主,2022 年融资成本上升,再融资困难依靠展期。8 月以来高评级民营房企境内融资环境持续改善,通过发行中债增担保中期票据融资。国企央企在境内融资具备优势,融资规模大,融资成本低。民企在境内仅少数高评级公司通过发中期票据融资。2022 年房地产债离岸在岸年房地产债离岸在岸指数指数皆走弱,在岸表现相对较好,民皆走弱,在岸表现相对较好,民企地产债企地产债市场市场收益率较高,二级市场净价低,境内外利差大。收益率较高,二级市场净价低,境内外利差大。中资美元房地产债券指数年至今下跌 40.1%,债
5、券平均收益率上升至 26.3%,高收益债收益率上升至 56.7%。在岸地产债指数因以央国企,高评级公司为主,年至今下跌 7.2%,表现好于离岸市场。在在岸和离岸市场中,民企平均收益率皆高于央国企,净价较低,离岸民企债券价格净价集中于 040 区间。民企在两个市场利差远高于央国企,在离岸市场有较高风险溢价。投资投资建议建议 建议关注地产行业高评级央企国企投资机会,关注境内外溢价建议关注地产行业高评级央企国企投资机会,关注境内外溢价以及市场超跌机会。以及市场超跌机会。从目前房地产行业离岸在岸债券市场对比来看,央国企仍具备较强的融资能力(从规模和成本角度),较低的风险溢价。高评级民企融资环境随境内支
6、持政策改善。低评级或无评级民企依靠展期,融资环境待改善。建议持续关注房地产销售情况、银行房贷利率及放款政策、土拍市场参与者结构变化可能带来的市场影响。风险风险 地产销售超预期下行,地产行业政策收紧 Table_Author 姜姜珮珮珊珊 Peishan Jiang 100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0220.0240.0260.0280.0Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产投资级别债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产高收益债券指数 180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 220.0 230.
7、0 240.0中证地产债信用债AAA 信用债AA+28 Oct 2022 2 Table_header1 行业行业 1.房地产房地产行业在岸和离岸行业在岸和离岸债券债券市场市场规模、期限结构和评级分布规模、期限结构和评级分布 1.1 房地产行业离岸和在岸房地产行业离岸和在岸债券债券规模规模情况情况 在岸地产债在岸地产债券券规模连续两年下滑。规模连续两年下滑。据万得行业统计,截至 2022 年 9 月底,中资房地产在岸债券余额从 2012 年的 1050 亿人民币增至 2022 年 9 月底的 1.79 万亿人民币。余额较 2021 年底下降 1.9%。2018 年以来在岸房地产债余额在 1.8
8、 万亿人民币附近,近两年下滑。房地产在岸债券余额房地产在岸债券余额 Source:Wind,HTI 离岸离岸地产地产美元美元债券规模债券规模连续两年下滑连续两年下滑,降速超过在岸市场,降速超过在岸市场。离岸房地产债主要发行货币为美元。离岸房地产美元债余额从 2012 年的 10 亿美元增至 2022 年 9 月底的 730 亿美元。2021 年以来房地产美元债余额持续下滑,截至 2022 年 9 月底,房地产美元债余额为 730 亿美元,较 2021 年底下降 31.3%。房地产离岸美元债余额房地产离岸美元债余额 Source:Wind,HTI 1.2 房地产房地产行业行业债券债券余额余额在离
9、岸在岸市场比重在离岸在岸市场比重 在岸房地产债在岸房地产债余额余额占在岸债券市场占在岸债券市场行业行业比重较低比重较低,离岸房地产债券,离岸房地产债券行业占比行业占比较较高高。在岸房地产债占在岸债券市场比重较低,行业占比排在未分类、金融、工业和公用事业之后,为第五位。房地产行业于在岸债中占比最高时为 2016 年的2.3%,之后下滑至 2021 年底的 1.4%。房地产离岸美元债占中资离岸美元债比例较高,2020 年占比曾达到 17.3%。截至 2022 年 9 月底占比下降至 8.5%,行业占比排在金融、其他和工业之后。SU8ViYiX8ZgYoO2WnUpY7N8Q8OnPrRtRpNlO
10、nMmMiNnOqR6MpOrQNZmOoONZmOpO 28 Oct 2022 3 Table_header1 行业行业 在岸债在岸债券券行业分类行业分类及占比及占比 Source:Wind,HTI 离岸离岸中资美元中资美元债券债券行业行业分类及占比分类及占比 Source:HTI 中资房地产债离岸和在岸中资房地产债离岸和在岸占各市场占各市场行业行业比重比重 Source:Wind,HTI 1.3 房地产债在岸离岸新增融资情况房地产债在岸离岸新增融资情况 在岸和离岸房地产债融资规模皆下滑在岸和离岸房地产债融资规模皆下滑,离岸,离岸市场市场降幅较大降幅较大。2022 年前三季度,在岸房地产债券
11、共发行(含展期)募集金额4290亿人民币,去年同期募集资金5544亿人民币,同比下降22.6%。离岸房地产债券共募集(含展期)金额183亿美元,去年同期募集资金 434 亿美元,同比下降 57.9%。三季度离岸和在岸房地产债融资规模降幅三季度离岸和在岸房地产债融资规模降幅收窄收窄。按季度情况来看,第三季度房地产在岸债券共发行(含展期)募集金额 1429 亿人民币,去年同期募集资金 1669亿人民币,同比下降 14.4%,二季度数据同比下降 26.2%,降幅环比收窄。第三季度房地产离岸债券共发行(含展期)募集金额 82 亿美元,去年同期募集资金 110亿美元,同比下降 25.0%。二季度数据同比
12、下降 67.4%,降幅环比收窄。2000021 9M2022房地产在岸债占在岸市场比重0.4%0.4%0.6%1.4%2.3%2.2%2.2%1.9%1.7%1.4%1.3%房地产离岸美元债占离岸市场比重3.2%5.0%7.7%6.1%5.8%9.7%11.2%15.3%17.3%13.1%8.4%28 Oct 2022 4 Table_header1 行业行业 在岸房地产债在岸房地产债融资季度情况及同比变化融资季度情况及同比变化 Source:Wind,HTI 离岸离岸房地产债房地产债融资季度情况及同比变化融资季度情况及同比变
13、化 Source:Wind,HTI 1.4 房地产债在岸离岸到期分布房地产债在岸离岸到期分布 离岸房地产离岸房地产美元美元债债于于 2023 年到期年到期比例比例高。高。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日,离岸地产美元债到期规模期限分布,2022 年四季度占比 5.3%、2023 年占比 27.0%、2024 年占比 20.8%、2025 年占比 16.7%、2026 年占比 9.6%,2027 年以后占比 20.6%。2023年到期占比最高,离岸房地产 2023 年到期偿还压力加大。在岸房地产债于在岸房地产债于 2023-2025 年年每年每年到期债务到期债务占比占比接近。接近。在岸房地产
14、债到期期限分布,2022 年四季度占比 4.6%、2023 年占比 18.8%、2024 年占比 16.4%、2025 年占比 20.2%、2026 年占比 13.9%,2027 年以后占比 26.1%。房地产房地产在岸离岸在岸离岸债券债券到到期限比例期限比例 Source:Wind,HTI 房地产在岸房地产在岸债券债券到期分布到期分布 房地产房地产离岸债券离岸债券到期分布到期分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 2022Q420232024202520262027以后以后总计总计房地产离岸债到期余额期限比例5.3%27.0%20.8%16.7%9.6%20.6
15、%100.0%房地产在岸债到期余额期限比例4.6%18.8%16.4%20.2%13.9%26.1%100.0%28 Oct 2022 5 Table_header1 行业行业 离岸房地产离岸房地产债券债券 2023 年到期压力较大。年到期压力较大。2023-2025 年,房地产离岸债券于 2023 年到期占规模各期限比例最高(27%)。在岸房地产债券在 2023-2025 年到期比例较为平均,2025 年到期比例较高(20.2%)。1.5 房地产债在岸离岸评级分布房地产债在岸离岸评级分布 在岸房地产债券以在岸房地产债券以 AAA 级高评级公司为主级高评级公司为主,离岸房地产美元债以高收益和无
16、评级,离岸房地产美元债以高收益和无评级发行人发行人为主为主。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日,房地产在岸债券评级分布(债项或发行人)分布为 AAA 占比 75%,AA 级占比 18.4%,A 级及以下占比 5.7%,无评级占比1.0%。房地产离岸美元债评级分布为投资级占比 10.9%,高收益占比 35.2%,无评级公司占比 53.9%。离岸房地产美元债以高收益和无评级债券为主,占比接近90%。房地产在岸房地产在岸存量存量债券评级分布债券评级分布 房地产离岸房地产离岸存量存量美元债评级分布美元债评级分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 在岸房地产债券新发行评级
17、主要以在岸房地产债券新发行评级主要以 AAA 级高评级公司为主,离岸市场以无评级发级高评级公司为主,离岸市场以无评级发行人为主。行人为主。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日,房地产在岸债券新发行评级主要以 AAA 级高评级公司为主,占比达 87.4%,AA 级公司占比为 11.5%。房地产离岸美元债发行人主要以无评级为主,占比达 93.8%,大部分发行人转为无评级前为高收益评级房企。房地产在岸债券新发行评级房地产在岸债券新发行评级 房地产离岸美元债新发行评级房地产离岸美元债新发行评级 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 2.房地产房地产行业行业在岸和离岸在岸和离岸
18、债券债券融资融资类型类型、主体类型及成本对比、主体类型及成本对比 2.1 房地产债在岸房地产债在岸融资类型融资类型、主体类型、主体类型及成本及成本变化变化 在岸房地产债在岸房地产债存量融资类型存量融资类型以一般公司债和以一般公司债和一般一般中期票据为主。中期票据为主。截至 2022 年 9 月底,境内存量房地产债余额中一般公司债规模约为 7135.5 亿人民币,一般中期票据规模约 4664 亿人民币,占比整个在岸房地产债规模为 39.8%和 26.1%。28 Oct 2022 6 Table_header1 行业行业 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券存量融资类型存量融资类型 房地产在岸债券房地产在
19、岸债券存量融资类型占比存量融资类型占比 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 在岸新增房地产债以一般中期票据和一般公司债为主。在岸新增房地产债以一般中期票据和一般公司债为主。2022 年前三季度,在岸新增房地产债以中一般中期票据规模为 1547.3 亿人民币,一般公司债规模 1442 亿人民币,占比整个在岸房地产债新增融资规模为 36.1%和 33.6%。房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券 2 2022022 年新增融资类型规模年新增融资类型规模 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券 2 2022022 年新增融资类型规模年新增融资类型规模比例比例 Source:Wind,HTI
20、Source:Wind,HTI 在岸房地产融资成本下降。在岸房地产融资成本下降。境内新增房地产债融资成本对比,新发行融资成本下降。境内房地产债存量债发行时票面利率均值为 4.5%。2022 年前三季度新发行债券票面利率均值为 3.5%。2022 年融资成本整体下降。房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券存量融资各类型成本存量融资各类型成本 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券 2 2022022 年新增融资各类型成本年新增融资各类型成本 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 在岸房地产债在岸房地产债发行主体以地方国企和中央国有企业为主,平均融资成本下降发行主体以地方国企和中央国有企业为
21、主,平均融资成本下降。2022 年前三季度新增融资中地方国企和中央国企为占比超 85%。地方国企新发行比例上升,存量占比为 40.4%,今年新发行占比提升至 48.3%。新发行整体成本降低。地方国企平均成本下降 40 基点,中央国企平均成本下降 40 个基点,民企平均成本下降 110 基点。增量融资以国企央企为主,民企占比较少。能进行融资的民企成本下降较多。28 Oct 2022 7 Table_header1 行业行业 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券存量融资主体占比存量融资主体占比 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券 2 2022022 年存量融资主体的成本年存量融资主体的成本 Source:Win
22、d,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券新增融资主体占比新增融资主体占比 房地产在岸债券房地产在岸债券 2 2022022 年新增融资主体的成本年新增融资主体的成本 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 2.2 房地产债离岸房地产债离岸融资类型、主体类型及成本变化融资类型、主体类型及成本变化 离岸房地产融资模式主要为发行中期票据离岸房地产融资模式主要为发行中期票据(含展期)(含展期),民企占比高。,民企占比高。截至2022年9 月底,离岸房地产债融资模式主要以发行美元计价的中期票据为主,占总离岸货币规模的近 90%。存量房地产境外美元债
23、中,发行人主体为民企的占比为80.5%,是以民企融资为主的市场。2022 年前三季度新发行房地产美元债以民企主体为主,占比达 91%。由于再融资困难,主要形式以展期原美元票据为主。2022 年第三季度新增融资 81 亿美元,其中 50 亿美元为富力地产将将其 2022 年、2023 年、2024 年到期美元债延期至 2025 年、2027 年和 2028 年。另有 14.3 亿美元融资为合景泰富债务展期。离岸房地产美元债存量主体分布离岸房地产美元债存量主体分布 离岸房地产美元债离岸房地产美元债新增融资新增融资主体分布主体分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 离岸
24、市场离岸市场民企融资成本上升,央企国企民企融资成本上升,央企国企融资成本融资成本下降。下降。2022 年前三季度,在离岸房地产美元债融资成本方面,民企上升,央国企下降。民企票面利率上升至8.1%,融资成本上升。国企、央企和和混改企业新发行较少,新发行票面利率较存量债券降低。28 Oct 2022 8 Table_header1 行业行业 离岸房地产离岸房地产存量存量美元债美元债融资成本融资成本 离岸房地产离岸房地产新发行新发行美元债美元债融资成本融资成本 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 2022 年民企融资规模下降年民企融资规模下降,离岸融资成本上升,在岸,离岸
25、融资成本上升,在岸融资融资规模规模较少较少成本下降成本下降。在民企为主要发行人的离岸房地产债券市场,2022 年民企融资成本上升,央国企和混改企业新增融资减少,融资成本下降。民企呈现融资规模减少,融资成本上升的现象。在岸房地产市场,高评级央企国企为发行主导,融资成本下降。能融资的民企成本下降较多,但规模占总体比例较小。2.3 境内融资环境境内融资环境持续持续改善,改善,试点试点房企接连发行中债增担保中期票据房企接连发行中债增担保中期票据 境内境内部分部分高评级民企融资获支持。高评级民企融资获支持。2022 年 8 月份,市场消息显示中国银行间市场交易商协会召集多家民营房企召开座谈会,探讨通过中
26、债信用公司增信支持的方式,支持民营房企发债融资。龙湖集团、碧桂园、旭辉控股集团、远洋集团、新城控股和金地集团在试点名单中。8 月下旬以来,龙湖集团、新城控股、碧桂园、旭辉控股集团等房企接连发行中债增担保中期票据。8 8 月以来通过中债登担保发行中期票据的房企月以来通过中债登担保发行中期票据的房企 Source:Wind,HTI 境内高评级民营房企融资环境持续改善。境内高评级民营房企融资环境持续改善。10 月市场消息显示,龙湖集团、碧桂园、新城控股、旭辉集团正推进第二轮由中债增进公司全额担保的债券发行,其中新城控股计划发行规模 15 亿元,旭辉控股集团拟发行金额不超过 10 亿元。3.房地产房地
27、产行业行业在岸和离岸债券市场在岸和离岸债券市场指数指数走势、债券走势、债券收益率收益率情况情况 3.1 房地产债券离岸和在岸表现房地产债券离岸和在岸表现对比对比 离岸房地产美元债市场表现逊于整体中资美元债市场走势。离岸房地产美元债市场表现逊于整体中资美元债市场走势。2022 年离岸房地产债指数持续走弱,债券收益率大幅上升。截至 9 月底,Markit iBoxx 亚洲中资美元房地产债券指数年初至今下跌 40.1%,房地产投资级别债券指数下跌 21.2%,高收益级别指数下跌 53.5%。对应中资美元房地产债收益率由年初 12.5%上升至 26.3%,其中投资级债券收益率由 4.4%上升至 8.2
28、%,高收益债券收益率上升至 56.7%。发行人发行人发行日期发行日期到期日到期日发行面额发行面额(亿元亿元)利率利率期限期限(年年)发行时主体评发行时主体评级级发行时债券评发行时债券评级级重庆龙湖企业拓展有限公司2022-08-252025-08-2615.003.30%3.00AAAAAA美的置业集团有限公司2022-09-022025-09-0710.003.33%3.00AAAAAA新城控股集团股份有限公司2022-09-082025-09-1310.003.28%3.00AAAAAA碧桂园地产集团有限公司2022-09-152025-09-1915.003.20%3.00AAAAAA旭
29、辉集团股份有限公司2022-09-212025-09-2212.003.22%3.00AAAAAA深圳市卓越商业管理有限公司2022-10-122025-10-146.003.50%3.00AAA 28 Oct 2022 9 Table_header1 行业行业 离岸房地产债指数离岸房地产债指数走势走势 Source:Wind,HTI 离岸房地产债指数离岸房地产债指数债券债券收益率走势收益率走势 Source:Wind,HTI 在岸地产债指数走势弱于整体市场,债券收益率高于信用债在岸地产债指数走势弱于整体市场,债券收益率高于信用债 AAA 级和级和 AA+级收益级收益率。率。2022 年在岸地
30、产债指数较信用债指数走弱。截至 9 月底,中证地产债指数年初至今下跌 7.2%,指数债券到期收益率由年初 18.7%上升至 29.1%。截至 9 月底,信用债 AAA 级收益率为 3.91%,较年初上升 0.1 个基点,信用债 AA+级收益率为5.49%,较年初下降 0.1 个基点,信用债指数的债券收益率较稳定。100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0220.0240.0260.0280.0Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产投资级别债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美
31、元房地产高收益债券指数0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产投资级别债券指数Markit iBoxx亚洲中资美元房地产高收益债券指数 28 Oct 2022 10 Table_header1 行业行业 在岸在岸房地产债指数房地产债指数走势走势 Source:Wind,HTI 在岸在岸房地产债指数房地产债指数收益率走势收益率走势 Source:Wind,HTI 离岸房地产债券市场表现弱于在岸房地产市场。离岸房地产债券市场表
32、现弱于在岸房地产市场。民企在销售端的持续下滑,融资能力的减弱,使得以民企为主的房地产离岸债券市场表现弱于在岸市场,伴随着信用风险事件频发,风险溢价不断走高。3.2 房地产债券离岸和境内债价格和收益率比较房地产债券离岸和境内债价格和收益率比较 在岸在岸民企地产债民企地产债市场占比较低但平均收益率远高于国企央企。市场占比较低但平均收益率远高于国企央企。万得数据统计,在岸地产债平均剩余期限为 2.6 年,平均到期收益率为 9.1%,中位数为 3.6%,中债估值净价平均为 91.1 元,中位数为 100.2 元。在岸房地产债发行人以国企央企为主,收益率较低,净价稳定于 100 元附近。在岸民企地产债占
33、市场比重较低但净价较低,集中在 20-60 元区间,收益率普遍高于国企央企。180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 220.0 230.0 240.0中证地产债信用债AAA 信用债AA+-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0中证地产债信用债AAA 信用债AA+28 Oct 2022 11 Table_header1 行业行业 在岸房地产债期限在岸房地产债期限收益率收益率分布分布 在岸房地产债期限在岸房地产债期限净价净价分布分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 注:境内债参考剩余期限 15 年以内,中债估值到期收益率
34、为正,暂不考虑收益率极端情况(大于等于200%)离岸房地产债市场风险溢价远高于在岸市场。离岸房地产债市场风险溢价远高于在岸市场。彭博数据显示,离岸地产债平均剩余期限约为 2.3 年,平均到期收益率为 114%,中位数为 55.4%,平均净价为 50,中位数为 40.5。离岸房地产债以民企为主,收益率较高,净价集中在 0-40 美元区间。离岸房地产债收益率期限分布离岸房地产债收益率期限分布 离岸房地产债净价期限分布离岸房地产债净价期限分布 Source:彭博,HTI Source:彭博,HTI 注:离岸债参考剩余期限 15 年以内,到期收益率为正,不考虑收益率极端情况(大于等于 600%)民营民
35、营房地产企业房地产企业离岸在岸收益率利差大离岸在岸收益率利差大。民营房企如碧桂园、龙湖、新城等公司地产债境内外利差较大。碧桂园境内外利差可到约 4500 个基点。央企或混改企业利差较民营房企低,利差较大的有金茂(境内外利差约 1400 个基点),较低为中国海外发展和华润置地(利差约 380 个基点)。民营房地产企业境内债券收益率高于国企央企,同时境内外利差远高于央企国企的利差。28 Oct 2022 12 Table_header1 行业行业 大型大型房企境内外房企境内外债券数据对比债券数据对比(截至截至 2 2022022 年年 9 9 月月 3 30 0 日)日)Source:Wind,D
36、ealing Matrix,HTI 4.投资建议投资建议 建议关注地产行业高评级央企建议关注地产行业高评级央企和和国企投资机会,关注境内外溢价以及市场超跌机国企投资机会,关注境内外溢价以及市场超跌机会。会。从目前房地产行业离岸在岸债券市场对比来看,整体融资规模还处在收缩阶段,民企融资能力下滑。央国企仍具备较强的融资能力(从规模和成本角度),较低的风险溢价。高评级民企融资环境随境内支持政策改善。低评级或无评级民企依靠债券展期,融资环境有待改善。对于民企,举债融资能带来的资金仍然有限。建议持续关注房地产销售情况、银行房贷利率及放款政策、土拍市场参与者结构变化可能带来的市场影响。28 Oct 202
37、2 13 Table_header2 行业行业 APPENDIX 1 Summary The real estate offshore bond market is dominated by low-rated private enterprises,and the scale of new financing is declining.The future debt repayment pressure was relatively high.In 2022,the new scale of bond issuance from onshore and offshore real estat
38、e companies both decreased,while the decline of the onshore issuance was relatively slow.The offshore real estate bond market is dominated by high-yield and unrated companies with their bond maturity largely distributed in 2023.The onshore market is dominated by highly rated companies with a more ev
39、enly distribution of maturity in the next three years.Offshore markets new issuance fell sharply.High yield and unrated companies are still facing pressure to refinance.In the third quarter,the rate of decline of new financing in the two markets narrowed.The financing environment improved a bit.Cent
40、ral government-owned enterprise and SOEs dominated the onshore real estate bond market with lower financing costs.Private enterprise frequently rolled over offshore bonds to refinance.Their financing environment was waiting to be improved.The onshore real estate bond issuers were mainly state-owned
41、and central government owned enterprises.Types of bond issuance were mainly corporate bonds and medium-term notes.Their financing cost decreased in 2022.The offshore real estate bond market was dominated by private enterprise issuers,facing Issuance costs rising in 2022,and refinancing difficulties.
42、Since August,the domestic financing environment of highly rated private real estate enterprises continued to improve with the issuance of mid-term notes guaranteed by China Bond Insurance Corporation(CBIC).State-owned and central-government-owned enterprises had advantages in domestic market financi
43、ng,with larger financing scale and lower financing cost.Only a few highly rated private companies in onshore market managed to finance through the issuance of medium-term notes.In 2022,both offshore and onshore real estate bond market index underperformed,while the onshore index performed better tha
44、n offshore market index.The yield of private real estate enterprise bonds was high with low clean price.The spread between same issuers offshore and onshore bond was large.The real estate bond index was down 40.1%year-to-date,with the average underlying bond yield rising to 26.3%.The high yield real
45、 estate bonds average yield rose to 56.7%.The onshore property bond index,which dominated by highly rated companies,was down 7.2%year-to-date,outperforming the offshore real estate bond market index.In both markets,the average yield of private enterprises was higher than those of central state-owned
46、 enterprises and SOEs,with lower clean price.The clean price of real estate offshore private enterprises bonds was mainly in the range from 0 to 40.Private enterprises spread between offshore and onshore market was higher than those between central state-owned enterprises and SOEs,reflecting private
47、 enterprises higher risk premium in the offshore market.14 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许
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52、sed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certai
53、n stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive informatio
54、n is needed).评级定义评级定义(从(从2020年年7月月1日开始执行)日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,
55、基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommendi
56、ng the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong Internat
57、ional Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and ot
58、her considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as 评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 15 indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to b
59、e in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of it
60、s relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.截至截至2020年年3月月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 买入买入 中性中性 卖出卖出 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 84%4%12%投资银行客户*7%0%2
61、%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义(直至此前的评级系统定义(直至2020年年6月月30日):日):买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下
62、 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of March 31,2020 BUY Neutral SELL (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 84%4%12%IB clients*7%0%2%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neut
63、ral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table
64、 above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the
65、 return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market be
66、nchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值,而仅供参考使用
67、。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ra
68、tings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shar
69、es that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by H
70、S differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程,并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q10
71、0)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent
72、companies are reviewed quarterly.16 重要免责声明:重要免责声明:非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告:本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)发行,该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例(第571章)持有第4类受规管活动(就证券提供意见)的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”)的协助下发行,HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告:印度证券的研究报告:本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及
73、证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HTSIPL”)所发行,包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)上市公司(统称为印度交易所)的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌,经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券
74、集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源,但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司(“HTISG”)的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期,如有更改,恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容,本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区,本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价,则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定
75、交易,包括设计金融衍生工具的,有产生重大风险的可能性,因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况,如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问,以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失,HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外,HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员,均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售
76、员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ,查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息:非美国分析师披露信息:本项研究上海品茶上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格,并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANT DISCLAIME
77、R For research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity(advising on securitie
78、s)for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For research reports on Indian sec
79、urities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research reports covering listed enti
80、ties on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPL was acquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports are globally branded
81、 under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at fro
82、m sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty,express or implied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may be received,as to their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opinions expressed here
83、in are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice.This research report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not,and should not be construed e
84、xpressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors home currency,a change in exchange rates may adv
85、ersely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are
86、not tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whe
87、ther the recommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.HTISG and our affiliates,officers,directors,an
88、d employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to time have long or short positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professionals of HTISG may provi
89、de oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expr
90、essed in this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for further information on HTIs organisational and administrative arrangeme
91、nts set up for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are not subject to U.S.FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions
92、on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appearances;and trading securities by a research analyst.17 分发和地区通知:分发和地区通知:除非下文另有规定,否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项:香港投资者的通知事项:海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告,HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动(从事证
93、券交易)的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成证券及期货条例(香港法例第571章)(以下简称“SFO”)所界定的要约邀请,证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项:美国投资者的通知事项:本研究报告由HTIRL,HSIPL或HTIJKK编写。HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK以及任何非HTISG美国联营公司,均未在美国注册,因此不受美国关于研究报告编制和研究分析人员独立性规定的约
94、束。本研究报告提供给依照1934年“美国证券交易法”第15a-6条规定的豁免注册的美国主要机构投资者(“Major U.S.Institutional Investor”)和机构投资者(”U.S.Institutional Investors”)。在向美国机构投资者分发研究报告时,Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”)将对报告的内容负责。任何收到本研究报告的美国投资者,希望根据本研究报告提供的信息进行任何证券或相关金融工具买卖的交易,只能通过HTI USA。HTI USA位于340 Madison Avenue,12th Flo
95、or,New York,NY 10173,电话(212)351-6050。HTI USA是在美国于U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(“SEC”)注册的经纪商,也是Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”)的成员。HTIUSA不负责编写本研究报告,也不负责其中包含的分析。在任何情况下,收到本研究报告的任何美国投资者,不得直接与分析师直接联系,也不得通过HSIPL,HTIRL或HTIJKK直接进行买卖证券或相关金融工具的交易。本研究报告中出现的HSIPL,HTIRL或HTIJKK分析师没有注
96、册或具备FINRA的研究分析师资格,因此可能不受FINRA第2241条规定的与目标公司的交流,公开露面和分析师账户持有的交易证券等限制。投资本研究报告中讨论的任何非美国证券或相关金融工具(包括ADR)可能存在一定风险。非美国发行的证券可能没有注册,或不受美国法规的约束。有关非美国证券或相关金融工具的信息可能有限制。外国公司可能不受审计和汇报的标准以及与美国境内生效相符的监管要求。本研究报告中以美元以外的其他货币计价的任何证券或相关金融工具的投资或收益的价值受汇率波动的影响,可能对该等证券或相关金融工具的价值或收入产生正面或负面影响。美国收件人的所有问询请联系:Haitong Internati
97、onal Securities(USA)Inc.340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor New York,NY 10173 联系人电话:(212)351 6050 DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONAL NOTICES Except as otherwise indicated below,any Recipient wishing to discuss this research report or effect any transaction in any security discussed in HTIs research should contact
98、the Haitong International salesperson in their own country or region.Notice to Hong Kong investors:The research report is distributed by Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),which is a licensed corporation to carry on Type 1 regulated activity(dealing in securities)in Hong Kong
99、.This research report does not constitute a solicitation or an offer of securities or an invitation to the public within the meaning of the SFO.This research report is only to be circulated to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO.This research report has not been reviewed by the Securities a
100、nd Futures Commission.You should not make investment decisions solely on the basis of the information contained in this research report.Recipients of this research report are to contact HTISCL salespersons in respect of any matters arising from,or in connection with,the research report.Notice to U.S
101、.investors:As described above,this research report was prepared by HTIRL,HSIPL or HTIJKK.Neither HTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,nor any of the non U.S.HTISG affiliates is registered in the United States and,therefore,is not subject to U.S.rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence
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103、o“U.S.institutional investors,”HTI USA will accept the responsibilities for the content of the reports.Any U.S.recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report shou
104、ld do so only through Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.(“HTI USA”),located at 340 Madison Avenue,12th Floor,New York,NY 10173,USA;telephone(212)351 6050.HTI USA is a broker-dealer registered in the U.S.with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(the“SEC”)and a member of the Financial Ind
105、ustry Regulatory Authority,Inc.(“FINRA”).HTI USA is not responsible for the preparation of this research report nor for the analysis contained therein.Under no circumstances should any U.S.recipient of this research report contact the analyst directly or effect any transaction to buy or sell securit
106、ies or related financial instruments directly through HSIPL,HTIRL or HTIJKK.The HSIPL,HTIRL or HTIJKK analyst(s)whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and,therefore,may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communication
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108、d with,or be subject to U.S.regulations.Information on such non-U.S.securities or related financial instruments may be limited.Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect within the U.S.The value of any investment or
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