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1、Ten risk scenarios that could reshape the global economyRisk outlook 2023LONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURGAON Economist Intelligence Skootr Spaces,Unit No.1 12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9 DLF Cyber City
2、,Phase-III Gurgaon-122002 Haryana,India Tel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 750 Third Ave,5th Floor,New York NY 10017,United States Tel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates
3、Tel:+971 4 4463 147 e-mail: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Contact usFor more information on our solutions and how they can help your organisation,please visit .The world leader in global business intelligenceE
4、IU offers deep insight and analysis of the economic and political developments in the increasingly complex global environment;identifying opportunities,trends,and risks on a global and national scale.Formed in 1946 with more than 70 years of experience,it is ideally positioned to be a commentator,in
5、terpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace,enabling businesses,financial firms,educational institutions and governments to plan effectively for uncertain futures.Actionable insight to win in the worlds marketsThe worlds leading organisations rely on our subscripti
6、on services for data,analysis and forecasts that keep them informed about emerging issues around the world.We specialise in:Country analysisaccess detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts,as well as assessments of the business environments in different markets with EIU Viewpoint.Ri
7、sk analysisour risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.Available products:Financial Risk and Operational Risk.Industry analysisfive-year forecasts,analysis of key themes and news analysis for six ke
8、y industries in 60 major economies.These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends,available via EIU Viewpoint.Speaker Bureaubook the experts behind the award-winning economic and political forecasts.Our team is available for presentations and panel moderation a
9、s well as boardroom briefings covering their specialisms.Explore Speaker Bureau for more speaker information.RISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20221EIU produces a quantitative and qualitative assessment of economic,polit
10、ical and regulatory risks that help our clients evaluate potential shifts in a countrys operating environment.In 2022 the global repercussions of Russias invasion of Ukraine shifted global concerns away from coronavirus-related health issues and towards growing political,security and macroeconomic r
11、isks.We expect that ripple effects from the war in Ukraine,global monetary tightening and an economic slowdown in China will weigh on the economy in 2023,with global growth slowing to only 1.6%.This white paper explores some of the risks that could lead to even slower growth,or even,trigger a global
12、 recession.Scenario one:cold winter exacerbates Europes energy crisisHigh probability;Very high impactRussia has weaponised its energy supplies by completely or partially cutting off gas flows to 12 EU countries.If a cold winter in 2022/23 leads to above-average gas demand,Europe could exhaust its n
13、atural gas reserves early(and fail to replenish them),resulting in a recession that could drag into 2024(our core forecast is for a mild recession,with the euro zones GDP contracting by 0.4%next year).Major parts of the industrial sector would be forced to ration energy usage and reduce their workfo
14、rces,ultimately bringing supply chains to a halt.High energy prices would lead to a surge in bankruptcies as firms become unprofitable.In an extreme scenario,governments could forcefully Risk Outlook 2023Ten risk scenarios that could reshape the global economyGlobal risk scenarios PoliticalSource:EI
15、U.MilitaryEconomicCyberwar eruptsDeteriorating ties between China and the EU/US Monetary tightening leads to global recessionCold winter worsens Europes energy crisisNew,highly aggressive variant of covid-19 emergesExtreme weather and war in Ukraine prompt famineGuxxxxxxxxChinas zero-covid policyCon
16、flict erupts between China and TaiwanEnvironmentalWar in Ukraine turns into global conflictHigh inflation fuels social unrestRISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20222ration energy usage,leading to waves of blackouts.Govern
17、ments could also halt price protections for households,increasing heating costs further and thus fuelling poverty and eroding consumers purchasing power.A breakdown of EU solidarity is another risk,with member states possibly halting or reducing gas flows to their neighbours to prevent domestic shor
18、tages.Given their high level of dependency on Russian gas,central Europe,Germany and Austria would be the most exposed to a deep recession in such a scenario.Scenario two:extreme weather adds to commodity price spikes,fuelling global food insecurityHigh probability;High impactClimate change models p
19、oint to an increased frequency of extreme weather events.So far these have been sporadic and in different parts of the world,but they could start to happen more synchronously and for prolonged periods.Severe droughts and heatwaves in Europe,China,India and the US in 2022 are contributing to rising p
20、rices of some foodstuffs.In addition,the war between Russia and Ukraine(two of the worlds largest agricultural exporters)has led to severe price spikes and risks creating global shortages of grains and fertilisers(which are crucial for harvests)in 2023.The world could face a prolonged period of crop
21、 shortages and skyrocketing prices,raising the risk of food insecurity(or even famine).Scenario three:direct conflict erupts between China and Taiwan,forcing US to interveneModerate probability;Very high impactA direct conflict between China and Taiwan is unlikely,but tensions grew when China conduc
22、ted“targeted military operations”following a visit to Taiwan by the speaker of the House of Representative Over half a billion people live in countries that rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat Source:EIU.*Data exclude Kazakhstan,which is a net wheat exporter.71-100%41-70%11-40%0-10%N/ATop te
23、n wheatproducers(%of total wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine,2021)BeninNicaraguaTurkeyGeorgiaEgyptLebanonAlbaniaCabo VerdeMongoliaArmeniaQatarAzerbaijanCongo(Brazzaville)RISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20223(the lo
24、wer house of the US Congress),Nancy Pelosi,in August.Chinas countermeasures have included live-fire military exercises in and around Taiwans territorial waters.The US government has reiterated that its diplomatic approach towards Taiwan has not changed,but China is increasingly sceptical of US-Taiwa
25、n relations,particularly given the acute hostility towards China in the US Congress.The risk of a full military invasion is mitigated by Chinas reliance on Taiwans semiconductors and concerns about the USs active response to Russias invasion of Ukraine.However,recent military exercises by China and
26、a more aggressive Taiwanese response raise the risk of a miscalculation,which could spiral into a wider conflict.Such a conflict would wipe out Taiwans economy,including its semiconductor industry,on which global supply chains rely.It would also risk drawing in the US,Australia and Japan,starting a
27、catastrophic global conflict.Scenario four:high global inflation fuels social unrestVery high probability;Moderate impactPersistent inflationary pressures,caused by supply-chain disruptions and Russias invasion of Ukraine,are pushing up global inflation,which is at its highest level since the 1990s.
28、If inflation rises much higher than wage increases,making it hard for poorer households to purchase basic staples,it could spark social unrest.Such protest movements have arisen in India,Ecuador and Argentina.In an extreme scenario,protests could push workers in major economies and employed by large
29、 manufacturers to co-ordinate large-scale strikes demanding higher salaries that match inflation.Such movements,similar to those that have affected critical services in the UK(ports,postal services,barristers and railways),could paralyse entire industries and spill over to other sectors or countries
30、,weighing on global growth.Scenario five:new variant of coronavirus,or another infectious disease,sends global economy back into recessionModerate probability;Very high impactAmid global vaccine inequity,the relaxation of government policies and pandemic fatigue,we expect a new variant of covid-19 t
31、o emerge in late 2022 or early 2023.If it escapes immunity(despite a reformulation of vaccines),this could cause a repeat of 2020.Risks are not only related to the coronavirusexperts are warning that other infectious diseases will soon emerge(such as monkeypox).If another aggressive variant of the c
32、oronavirus materialises,developed countries may impose lockdowns.Consumer and investor sentiment would sink,leading to a downturn in financial markets,services and retail sales.Travel bans would return,dampening the tourism recovery.The vaccination drive would reset if vaccine producers have to star
33、t from scratch,and the global economy would go back into recession.Scenario six:inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economiesModerate probability;Very high impactRussias invasion of Ukraine and tensions surrounding Taiwan have increased the likelihood of major state-on-state
34、cyber-attacks.Given the much higher costs of direct military conflict and the difficulty in identifying perpetrators of cyber-attacks,any military escalation is most likely initially to take the form of cyber-warfare.This could be triggered by a complete diplomatic breakdown,leading to an escalating
35、 RISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20224string of tit-for-tat cyber-attacks ultimately targeting software that controls state infrastructure.The shutdown of a national grid,for example,would severely disrupt business ope
36、rations.Scenario seven:further deterioration in West-China ties forces full decoupling of global economyModerate probability;High impactWestern democracies,notably the US and the EU,are concerned about Chinas support to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.In parallel,China is concerned about US
37、-Taiwan relations and efforts by the US to convince other democracies to pressure it using restrictions on trade,technology and finance.The EU has also taken an increasingly confrontational stance towards Chinas human rights abuses in Xinjiang,unequal treatment of EU and Chinese firms,and its subsid
38、y-led industrial model.In an extreme scenario,China could initiate military manoeuvres in the South China Sea(most likely in Taiwan),exacerbating tensions and pushing the West to unite in imposing sweeping trade and investment restrictions on China.This would force some markets(and companies)to choo
39、se Two-thirds of the worlds population live in countries that are neutral or Russia-leaning regarding the war in UkraineWest-leaningNeutralRussia-leaningSingaporeSource:EIU.By global GDP(%)By global population(%)CondemnsRussiaWest-leaningSupportiveof RussiaRussia-leaning0070055
40、NeutralCondemnsRussiaWest-leaningSupportiveof RussiaRussia-leaningNeutral61.29.310.116.816.82.62.63.93.916.82.616.120.332.127.63.9RISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20225sides.In retaliation,China could block exports of r
41、aw materials and goods that are crucial to Western economies,such as rare earths.This would have disastrous economic effects and force companies to operate two supply chains while fearing operational disruptions.Scenario eight:aggressive monetary tightening leads to global recessionModerate probabil
42、ity;Moderate impactMajor central banks are rapidly raising interest rates to try to tame rising inflation across most countries around the world(we assume that global inflation will stand at nearly 10%this year).These measures are fuelling a sharp increase in long-term interest rates,raising borrowi
43、ng costs.A prolonged rise in inflation could prompt central banks to maintain aggressive policies that would undermine household purchasing power amid high energy and commodities prices.Amid other destabilising factors(for example the war in Ukraine,supply-chain disruptions,the strength of the US do
44、llar and Chinas zero-covid policy),this situation could trigger a global recession.In developed countries,the economic slowdown could deepen,resulting in an asset market crash that would weigh on global growth.In emerging markets,interest-rate rises could prompt extreme currency depreciations and ra
45、ise the risk of sovereign debt defaults(as happened in Sri Lanka in April).Scenario nine:Chinas zero-covid policy leads to severe recessionLow probability;High impactChinas government continues to believe covid-19 containment measures to be necessary.We therefore expect Chinas zero-covid policy to p
46、ersist until mid-2023.With another coronavirus variant likely to emerge this winter,strict lockdown measures in China remain probable.These,combined with the persistent weakness in Chinas property sector,energy sector woes and a recent drought,could cause Chinas economy to contract severely.This wou
47、ld weigh on global economic activity,deteriorating already weak investor sentiment and dampening the performance of global financial markets.International companies could diversify their operations to non-China-based manufacturing Major central banks are rapidly raising interest rates(main policy in
48、terest rate*;%end of period)Source:EIU.*Data from Q4 2022 are EIU forecasts.USUKEUJapanQ3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202122RISK OUTLOOK 2023TEN RISK SCENARIOS THAT COULD RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20226and logistics hubs that have pivoted
49、towards“living with the virus”.However,this would be costly and would need to be carefully framed;Chinese authorities could retaliate,including via enhanced inspections of,or reputational attacks on,those firms that would be considered as“quitting the Chinese market”.Scenario ten:Russia-Ukraine conf
50、lict turns into global warVery low probability;Very high impactThe war in Ukraine could become a global conflict,pitting Russia against NATO members.The war carries particular risks for NATO member states that border Ukraine and Russia,which could be drawn into the conflict inadvertently.Russia has
51、readied its nuclear deterrence forces and could target critical infrastructure(such as gas pipelines or undersea telecommunications cables).In case of retaliation from NATO countries,the risk of a miscalculation cannot be discounted.Prospective and existing NATO member states such as Poland,Romania,
52、the Baltic states,Finland and Sweden are the most likely trigger points.Moldova is another potential flashpoint.The consequences of a global conflict would be devastating.The global economy would fall into deep recession,with severe human consequences and large-scale fatalities.Such a confrontation
53、could assume a nuclear form,with catastrophic consequences for major cities in Russia,the US and Europe.The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20227Plan operational risk management effectively with expert analysis and data covering current and future risk factors and their implications for your str
54、ategy.Operational Risk enables you to:Get an in-depth analysis of global events that impact risk in 180 markets and 26 industry subsectors.Easily compare risks to cyber-security,political stability or climate-change management across markets,with an easy-to-navigate forecasting model.Download data t
55、o analyse in your risk-rating models.Whats included?Risk scores and ratingsassess countries by overall operating risk.Our model produces scores across ten key operational risk categories and 70 subcategories quarterly.Risk trackerdownload data and build your own business risk matrix by selecting the
56、 countries,categories,industry subsectors and time-frames that you forecast against.Risk scenarios watchlistevaluate the probability,implications and intensity of potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment in the next two years.World-event analysisget t
57、he latest insights on political and economic events that have an impact on risk and business conditions.To arrange a demonstration of EIUs Operational Risk service or to discuss the analysis and features included,please get in touch or visit EIU Viewpoint:Operational Risk Identify,compare and mitiga
58、te risk across 180 marketsCopyright 2022 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without
59、 the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.