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1、North America outlook 2023Economic headwinds approachingLONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURGAON Economist Intelligence Skootr Spaces,Unit No.1 12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9 DLF Cyber City,Phase-III Gurgao
2、n-122002 Haryana,India Tel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 750 Third Ave,5th Floor,New York NY 10017,United States Tel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates Tel:+971 4 4463 1
3、47 e-mail: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Contact usFor more information on our solutions and how they can help your organisation,please visit .The world leader in global business intelligenceEIU offers deep in
4、sight and analysis of the economic and political developments in the increasingly complex global environment;identifying opportunities,trends,and risks on a global and national scale.Formed in 1946,with more than 70 years of experience,it is ideally positioned to be a commentator,interpreter and for
5、ecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace,enabling businesses,financial firms,educational institutions and governments to plan effectively for uncertain futures.Actionable insight to win in the worlds marketsThe worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for d
6、ata,analysis and forecasts that keep them informed about emerging issues around the world.We specialise in:Country analysisaccess detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts,as well as assessments of the business environments in different markets with EIU Viewpoint.Risk analysisour ri
7、sk services identify actual and potential threats around the world to help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.Available products:Financial Risk and Operational Risk.Industry analysisfive-year forecasts,analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60
8、 major economies.These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends,available via EIU Viewpoint.Speaker Bureaubook the experts behind the award-winning economic and political forecasts.Our team is available for presentations and panel moderation as well as boardroo
9、m briefings covering their specialisms.Explore Speaker Bureau for more speaker information.NORTH AMERICA OUTLOOK 2023 ECONOMIC HEADWINDS APPROACHING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20221 EIU expects that a combination of stubbornly high inflation,a steep rise in interest rates and slowdowns
10、elsewhere(most notably Europe and China)will curb US growth in 2023.We expect the US economy to experience a mild technical recession in early 2023.We expect real GDP to flatten year on year,rising by just 0.1%.In contrast,the Canadian economy will continue to benefit from high commodity prices,alth
11、ough aggressive monetary tightening will also take its toll on growth.In the US,Republicans lacklustre performance in the 2022 mid-terms will kick off a battle for the 2024 presidential nomination.This competition will make it difficult for Republicans to present a united front in Congress and to mo
12、bilise voters.Both US and Canadian foreign policy will re-focus on China in 2023.We do not expect an easing of North America-China tensions any time soon.In 2022 the US and Canada faced similar economic challenges amid record high-inflation,Russias invasion of Ukraine and heightened tensions with Ch
13、ina.Both countries focus shifted rapidly from coronavirus recovery,to managing economic headwinds stemming from the Ukraine war and navigating geopolitical uncertainty.We expect that 2023 will be another year of managing slower growth,tightening monetary policy and trying to cool international tensi
14、ons.Interest rates:how far will the Fed go?After US inflation spiked to an estimated 8.1%in 2022,a 40-year high,we expect that it will ease gradually over the course of 2023.In year-on-year terms,both headline and core inflation eased back from their recent peaks in October,to 7.7%and 6.3%,respectiv
15、ely.Economic headwinds approachingInflation measures are starting to ease,after core CPI hit a fresh high in September(US consumer price index,%change year on year)Sources:US Bureau of Labour Statistics;EIU.Core CPIHeadline CPIOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2020NORTH AMERICA OUTLO
16、OK 2023 ECONOMIC HEADWINDS APPROACHING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20222Despite signs that inflation is easing,we expect price growth to remain above normal levels in 2023,as commodity prices remain higher than in recent years and as consumer spending slows only gradually.As a result,we
17、expect the Fed to raise interest rates to a peak target range of 4.5-4.75%at the start of February 2023twice as high as the peak range in the previous tightening cycleand to leave them there until mid-2024.There is,however,an increasing risk that the Fed will raise interest rates above 5%,if inflati
18、on does not ease more noticeably in the coming months(as we expect it to)due to another oil-price spike or stubbornly resistant consumer demand.US economic growth:is a recession on the cards?We expect US consumer spending and fixed investment to slump in 2023,largely due to the steep rise in US inte
19、rest rates,as well as stubbornly high inflation and slowing growth elsewhere in the worldincluding in Europe and China,two key markets for the US.We expect two quarters of GDP contraction in late 2022 and early 2023,as consumer spending and investment both drop from their high base.The housing secto
20、rone of the fastest to respond to changes in monetary policyhas already declined noticeably in recent months,suggesting other sectors will follow.We expect US consumer spending to be stickier,reflecting pent-up demand left over from the pandemic,strong nominal wage growth(albeit below inflation)and
21、still-low unemployment.The savings ratio has fallen to just over 3%in recent months,less than half its pre-pandemic level,as households have dipped into their savings in order to maintain spending(typically the savings ratio rises as households buckle up for difficult times).Canadian economic outloo
22、k:slowdown ahead,but a recession is unlikelyIn 2023 we believe that Canadas real GDP growth will be higher than that of its G7 peers,at a forecast 1.3%(compared with-0.1%on average for G7 countries;this average is an arithmetic one).Canada has benefitted from the spike in global commodity prices,not
23、ably for crude oil and wheat,following Russias invasion of Ukraine.Higher commodity prices have fuelled inflation,but price growth has now Personal consumption and exports supported modest GDP rebound in Q3(contribution to quarterly real GDP growth,percentage points)Sources:US Bureau of Economic Ana
24、lysis;EIU.Personal consumptionFixed investmentPrivate inventoryNet exportsGovernment Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q320212022-4-2024681012NORTH AMERICA OUTLOOK 2023 ECONOMIC HEADWINDS APPROACHING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20223started to come down from its high of 7.9%year on year in June.We believe tha
25、t inflation will continue to fall in the coming months as global commodity prices decrease(albeit from a very high base),international transport costs fall and monetary tightening by the Bank of Canada(BoC,the central bank)starts to take effect.Counterbalancing these positive trends,headwinds will w
26、eigh on the economy,including domestic and global monetary tightening,as well as the sharp economic slowdown in the US.There will also be other economic ripple effects from the war in Ukraine,such as an impending economic recession in Europewhich will also weigh on global growth.Labour shortages wil
27、l also remain an issue.Despite government plans to bring in 1.5m immigrants by 2025,some sectors(like health care,manufacturing and construction)will face acute shortages.US domestic politics:the 2024 US election season has begunThe November 8th US mid-term elections have resulted in a divided Congr
28、ess,with a Democrat-controlled Senate(the upper house)and a Republican-controlled House of Representative(the lower house)in line with our forecasts.This will set the country up for some bruising policy battles in 2023-24,particularly over the budget and the debt ceiling.However,the biggest battle i
29、s now likely to take place within the Republican Party,as conservatives recover from their disappointing mid-terms performance and prepare for the 2024 presidential elections.The former president,Donald Trump,has already announced his candidacy for the 2024 election,as we expected,but will run with
30、a greatly diminished profile.Mr Trump was very active in the mid-terms,endorsing more than 300 candidates,with mediocre results;not a single candidate from the far-right America First coalitionan unofficial slate of extreme-right candidates who deny the results of the 2020 electionwon a race to serv
31、e as a key election official(governor,secretary of state or attorney general)in battleground states.Worker shortages in Canada remain despite proactive federal immigration policy(000s)Sources:Statistics Canada;EIU.Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2205075100125150Net immigrant arrivals0200400600
32、8001,0001,200Job vacanciesNORTH AMERICA OUTLOOK 2023 ECONOMIC HEADWINDS APPROACHING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20224This creates an opening for potential challengers,particularly Ron DeSantis,who was re-elected as governor of Florida by a landslide(without seeking Mr Trumps endorsement)
33、.However,Mr Trump remains popular with much of the partys grassroots,and we do not expect him to step back from the political scene without a fight.The battle for the nomination is likely to divide congressional Republicans in the coming years;this will hinder their ability to put forward legislatio
34、n,particularly as their extremely narrow majority in the House of Representatives(which drives the governments spending and taxation agenda)will make co-operation crucial.A long battle for the Republican presidential nomination also risks dividing the party ahead of the next election.Foreign policy:
35、all eyes(still)on Russia and ChinaWe expect the US and Canada to remain focused on containing Russian aggression in Europe in 2023,as the war in Ukraine has revived tensions with Russia and strengthened North Americas security ties with its traditional allies in Europe and NATO.We expect the US and
36、Canada will maintain financial and military support for Ukraine in 2023,although the amount of this support by the US will depend on budget battles in a divided Congress.Besides Russia,we do not expect Canada or the USs relations with China to improve in 2023.While the US aims to“contain”Russia in t
37、he near-term,the US national security strategy published in October highlights that the administrations longer-term focus is to“out-compete”China.Economic tensions,which had simmered for much of the term of the US president,Joe Biden,thus far,escalated significantly in October when the administratio
38、n introduced sweeping export controls on US semiconductor manufacturing technologya significant setback for Chinas technological and military plans.Mr Biden has recently signalled his willingness to put a“floor”under the US-China relationship and to work with China on shared priorities,including the
39、 climate crisis.However,the conflict will remain entrenched,and we expect the US administration to draw its red lines more A weakened Donald Trump remains the Republican primary favourite(%respondents who support the following if the Republican presidential primary were today)Sources:Morning Consult
40、;EIU.*Latest survey conducted November 10th-14th 2022.Donald TrumpRon DeSantisNon-Trump/DeSantisJanMarJunJulAugSepOctNov2022020406080100NORTH AMERICA OUTLOOK 2023 ECONOMIC HEADWINDS APPROACHING The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20225clearlyparticularly over its support for Taiwan and its effor
41、ts to out-compete China in the semiconductor industrywhich will prevent any improvement in relations.Similarly,we expect Canada-China tensions to deepen in 2023,as Canada seeks to diversify its trade relationships and maintains claims that China attempted to interfere in its 2019 elections(which Chi
42、na denies).The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20226EIU Viewpoint:Country Analysis Preparing you for whats aheadUnderstand a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.Our experts assess the global dynamics that impact organisations,so you c
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