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1、1Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 2Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 2022 The World Bank Group1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions.“The World
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10、d Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover design:Brad Amburn3Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 1.ContentsForeword.4Summary.61.Country Climate and Development Reports:integrating climate change and development.72.C
11、limate change poses a major threat to long-term development objectives.102.1.Climate change has widespread,deep,and cascading effects across most sectors.102.2.Boosting resilience and adaptation is an urgent and integral part of development and poverty reduction,especially in low-income countries.13
12、2.3.Even with adaptation,successful development and poverty reduction require accelerated mitigation action,especially from high-income countries and large emitters.193.Climate objectives can be achieved without compromising development.213.1.Structural change and supportive policy environments are
13、needed for successful and just climate action.213.2.Sectoral transitions with private sector mobilization create opportunities to reduce GHG emissions while contributing to development.223.3.Most countries can follow development pathways that align with a just transition and the Paris Agreement with
14、out major trade-offs.334.Success requires urgent policy reforms and increased financial support from the international community.394.1.Innovative climate finance solutions to meet additional investment needs.394.2.Consider the political economy in policy design.454.3.Building institutional capacity
15、and improving governance and decision making .464.4.Accelerated innovation and scaling up key technologies for adaptation and mitigation.474.5.A just transition:preventing and managing impacts on people and communities.495.Prioritization and sequencing:a requisite for success.515.1.Prioritizing what
16、 is good for development or urgent to achieve climate goals.515.2.Main recommendations in the CCDRs.526.Conclusion.55AcronymsCBAMCarbon Border Adjustment MechanismCCAPClimate Change Action PlanCCDRCountry Climate and Development ReportCPATClimate Policy Assessment ToolCSAclimate-smart agricultureDRM
17、disaster risk managementEUEuropean UnionEVelectric vehicleGDPgross domestic product GHGgreenhouse gasGRIDGreen,Resilient,and Inclusive DevelopmentHIChigh-income countryLIClow-income countryLMIClower-middle-income countryM&Emonitoring and evaluationMANAGE(World Banks)Mitigation,Adaptation,and New Tec
18、hnologies Applied General EquilibriumMFMod(World Banks)Macro-Fiscal ModelMICmiddle-income countryNDCNationally Determined ContributionO&Moperations and maintenanceSMEsmall and medium-sized enterpriseSOEstate-owned enterpriseUMICupper-middle-income countries4Climate and Development:An Agenda for Acti
19、on Achieving Climate and Development Goals TogetherForeword by David MalpassDeveloping countries face a unique challenge of having to achieve their economic development goals in the context of a changing climate.Policymakers face tough questions.How to translate short-and long-term climate impacts i
20、nto decisions today?What policy reforms and investments should be prioritized?What are the trade-offs between immediate benefits and costlier delays?The answers to these questions will impact every sector of their economies and societies.Moreover,there is no single solution:the energy transition in
21、China looks very different from in Chad,and the development priorities of Pakistan vary significantly from those of Trkiye.All countries can benefit from a systematic approach that combines the best available data,models,and tools to provide immediate and actionable recommendations that integrate cl
22、imate and development goals.That is what our transformative new diagnostic the Country Climate and Development Reportssets out to do.The reports build on the World Bank Groups long and ongoing country engagement as the worlds leading development institution and the leading provider of climate financ
23、e to the developing world.Each report is rooted in its unique country context:from the countrys climate commitments and development priorities to its income level and its sectoral transitions.The reports take a people-centric approach,from people living in flood-prone areas to workers in the coal in
24、dustry,to protect the poorest and most vulnerable and contribute to a just transition.They capture the essential role of the private sector in increasing resilience and reducing emissions.They also examine the“All countries can benefit from a systematic approach that combines the best available data
25、,models,and tools to provide immediate and actionable recommendations that integrate climate and development goals.That is what our transformative new diagnostic the Country Climate and Development Reportssets out to do.”5Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action technologies and innovations need
26、ed for lower carbon intensity production of electricity,steel,cement,and manufacturing,and how the world will build green and efficient supply chains for sustainable development.The result is that each report contains a wealth of information on the pathways and investments that can help each country
27、 to shape a low-carbon,resilient development future.These reports do not provide all the answers,but they offer new analysis and lay out the challenges and opportunities of climate and development in an integrated way that enables policymakers to better find the answers they need.The first batch of
28、reports spans 24 countries:Argentina,Bangladesh,Burkina Faso,Cameroon,Chad,China,Arab Republic of Egypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Kazakhstan,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Morocco,Nepal,Niger,Pakistan,Peru,Philippines,Rwanda,South Africa,Trkiye,and Vietnam.Each report is conducted jointly by the World Bank and its
29、private sector arms,the International Finance Corporation and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency,and in close coordination with the International Monetary Fund.I want to thank all those who have taken part in this groundbreaking exercise for their insights,rigor,collaborative spirit,and ha
30、rd work.This analysis,Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action,draws from the richness of the individual country reports and shares some early insights we have gleaned from the first batch.These early insights are striking.In CCDR countries,investing an average of 1.4%of GDP in adaptation and mi
31、tigation could increase their resilience and reduce their emissions by as much as 70%by 2050.The transition could see positive impacts on GDP and employment,but these must be balanced against losses in fossil fuel-intensive sectors which will impact some populations and communities.The gains are the
32、re to be reaped but they are not automatic:they depend on carefully designed policies as well as increased financial support from richer economies.Especially in lower-income countries,where investment needs for climate action often exceed 5%of GDP,increased volumes of concessional financeincluding t
33、hrough grantsare critical to a successful and just transition.The first batch of CCDRs shows us that tackling climate and development is achievable.Together,we can forge a path toward a low-carbon resilient future.6Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action Summary To support the alignment of deve
34、lopment and climate objectives at the country level,the World Bank Group has launched a new core diagnostic tool:the Country Climate and Development Report(CCDR).The CCDRs integrate climate change and development considerations and aim to help governments,private sector investors,citizens,and develo
35、pment partners prioritize the most impactful actions that can boost resilience and adaptation and reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,while delivering on broader development objectives.The first set of 20 CCDRs covers 24 countries and provide three main insights.First,climate change poses a major th
36、reat to long-term development objectives,especially poverty reduction.With appropriate adaptation policies,countries can reduce impacts in the short term.But even then,successful development require rapid reductions in global GHG emissions,which requires first and foremost accelerated mitigation act
37、ion in high-income countries and other large emitters.Second,climate objectives can be achieved without compromising development,but only if key conditions are met.These key conditions include well-designed climate actions,strong participation of the private sector,adequate international support,and
38、 appropriate complementary measures to manage unavoidable trade-offs,protect poor peoples consumption,and facilitate a just transition.Most CCDR low-carbon development pathways are more ambitious than existing NDCs,reducing total GHG emissions in CCDR countries by 70%compared with a current-policy s
39、cenario.Taken together,however,they would still lead to significant emissions in 2050,showing the need to adjust these pathways to increase ambition over time,but also for enhanced support from and action in HICs,including with negative emissions.Third,success requires challenging policy reforms,rea
40、llocation of scarce public resources,increased mobilization of private capital,and increased financial support from the international community.Resilient and low-carbon pathways can deliver net economic gains,if additional annual investment needs averaging 1.4 percent of countries GDP over 202230 ca
41、n be met.The transition also requires managing political economy obstacles;strengthening institutions;accelerating diffusion of new technologies;and managing distributional outcomes.To be successful,all countries will require carefully designed policies and scaled-up financial support from richer ec
42、onomies.Low-income countries face higher investment needs,often exceeding 5 percent,and will need access to sustained levels of concessional resources,including grants.The CCDRs recognize that in each country,a government-led prioritization and sequencing exercise is an essential step to translate t
43、he diagnostic into a country-owned strategy and implementable investment plan.A CCDR can be an opportunity for governments and private sector investors,citizens,international financing institutions,and World Bank Group partners to engage on development and climate action,with better country-level co
44、ordination.Climate change poses a major threat to long-term development objectives,especially poverty reduction,and accelerated emission reductions are needed,particularly in high-income and other high-emitting countries.Reducing emissions can be done without comprising development:taken together,CC
45、DR low-carbon development strategies reduce emissions by 70%,without significant impact on growth,provided that policies are well designed and financing is available.Financing needs average 1.4 percent of GDP,a manageable amount with appropriate private sector involvement.But in lower-income countri
46、es,financing needs can exceed 5%,which will require more support from high-income countries,including increased concessional resources.7Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 1.Country Climate and Development Reports:integrating climate change and development Climate changecaused by greenhouse
47、 gas(GHG)emissions from human activitiesposes serious threats to countries ability to secure past developments gains and sustain improvements in living standards.Climate change,poverty,and inequality are defining challenges of our timeand it is crucial that we tackle them together,acknowledging the
48、interconnections between people,planet,and the economy.To this end,it is urgent that countries build the resilience and adaptation of their people and economies to the effects of climate change in their development strategies,while also reducing GHG emissions to mitigate damaging changes to the glob
49、al public good that is climate.Integrating climate and development is at the heart of the World Bank Groups Climate Change Action Plan(CCAP)202125 and the World Banks Green,Resilient,and Inclusive Development(GRID)approach.1The World Bank Group has recently launched a new,core diagnostic tool:the Co
50、untry Climate and Development Report(CCDR).Integrating climate change and development considerations,this diagnostic is jointly conducted by the World Bank,the International Finance Corporation,(IFC)and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency(MIGA),in close coordination with the International M
51、onetary Fund.It aims to help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to boost resilience and adaptation and reduce GHG emissions,while delivering on broader development objectives.CCDRs are designed to analyze the connection between climate and development policies and identify concrete prio
52、rity actions that support countries development goals as they improve climate resilience and lower emissions.Capturing the centrality of people in climate change policies,CCDRs assess how climate risks affect people,and how governments and the private sector can build resilience,considering the impl
53、ications of physical and transition risks on poverty and jobs.The first set of 20 CCDRs(published or in press)covers 24 countries(figure 1).2 Building on the lessons learned from the inaugural year of the CCDR,we aim to roll out CCDRs to all our client countries over the next three to five years.CCD
54、Rs use a scenario approachconsidering country-specific resilient and low-carbon development pathwaysto explore three broad policy spaces.First,they look at sectoral and macroeconomic policies and investments that create synergies between climate action and short-to medium-term development objectives
55、.For example,improving public transit can expand access to jobs and critical social services,particularly for women and the poor,reduce traffic congestion,and address local air pollution,all while reducing GHG emissions.Second,CCDRs examine potential trade-offs between climate and other development
56、objectives and identify policies and investments that can prevent or manage these trade-offs.For example,decommissioning coal infrastructure reduces GHG emissions but could have adverse social impacts if not accompanied by targeted support for local communities and workers.Third,CCDRs explore opport
57、unities,reforms,investments,and policy instruments to further leverage private sector resources and solutions for both climate change adaptation and mitigation and to better manage distributional impacts and the political economy,using a people-centric approach to the climate and development agenda.
58、1 https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35799;https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36322.2 https:/www.worldbank.org/en/publication/country-climate-development-reports.8Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action As public documents,CCDRs can provide impetus at the country level
59、 for governments,the private sector,citizens,and development partners to engage in the climate and development agenda.By convening private sector investors,governments,and multilateral development banks,CCDRs support coordinated country-level climate action,and can help direct concessional and priva
60、te financing from private sector development financiers and nontraditional donors to high-impact climate action.FIGURE 1:CCDR countries covered in this synthesis paper and those where CCDRs have been recently initiatedArgentinaBangladeshBurkina FasoCameroonChadChinaEgyptGhanaIraqJordanKazakhstanMala
61、wiMaliMauritaniaMoroccoNepalNigerPakistanPeruThe PhilippinesRwandaSouth AfricaTrkiyeVietnamPublished or in pressAngolaBrazilHondurasIndonesia MozambiqueForthcomingUkraineSudanOn holdAzerbaijanBhutanCambodiaCentral African RepublicColombiaDemocratic Republic of CongoCte dIvoireInitiatedDominican Repu
62、blicEastern Caribbean(Antigua and Barbuda,Dominica,Grenada,St.Kitts and Nevis,St.Lucia,and St.Vincent and the Grenadines)EcuadorGuinea-BissauIndiaKenyaLebanonLiberiaMadagascarParaguayRomaniaTunisiaUzbekistanWest Bank and GazaZimbabwePopulation(billions,2021)GDP($,trillions,2020)GHG emissions(MtCO2e,
63、2018)2.7(34.0%)0.6(7.2%)1.8(23.2%)2.7(34.5%)19.4(22.4%)2.6(3.0%)60.5(69.9%)3.9(4.5%)15,980(33.8%)3,387(7.2%)5,460(11.5%)22,063(46.7%)393(0.8%)Note:MtCO2e=million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.CCDRs combine the best available data,models,and tools to place what is often a discussion of impacts in
64、 the distant future into more immediate and actionable recommendations for decision makers today.While the analysis and diagnostic typically extend to 2050,CCDR policy recommendations focus on the medium-term,especially the years until 2030.They benefit from the expertise of World Bank Group clients
65、 and staff on development challengesincluding poverty and private sector issuesand strong synergies with other diagnostics,such as Country Economic Memorandums,Poverty Assessments,and Country Private Sector Diagnostics.They will be useful for:9Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action The World B
66、ank Group:CCDRs will inform the World Bank Groups Systematic Country Diagnostic and Country Partnership Framework,ensuring that the groups priorities and financing portfolio consider development and climate objectives.Governments:By providing a strategic,macrofiscal,and financial discussion on clima
67、te-related issues,and complementing World Bank Group sectoral engagement and analyses,CCDRs will help countries frame their own development and climate objectives,facilitate a whole-of-government approach to this agenda,and identify how to mobilize the private sector including private sector capital
68、.The private sector and general public:As well as the main economic risks,CCDRs identify economic opportunities for private sector investment and markets.They can also trigger a conversation with the public and civil society around key priorities,trade-offs,and a just transition.A global audience:CC
69、DRs explore realistic pathways to achieve the global communitys development and climate objectives,including the Sustainable Development Goals and the 2030 agenda,and identify policy and external financing needs as well as common technology and trade issues.This synthesis summarizes the main emergin
70、g findings from the first set of CCDRs.It identifies commonalities as well as differences and specificities across country contexts,income groups,and geographies.It also aims to combine these insights to inform on how international development partnersespecially high-income countries(HICs)should sup
71、port the global transition toward a more resilient low-carbon development path,including through their own climate action and support to climate action in low-and middle-income countries(LICs and MICs)thus helping reconcile climate and development.10Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 2.Cli
72、mate change poses a major threat to long-term development objectivesClimate change affects all environmental conditions in which people live and economies operate,with complex direct and indirect impacts on activities and well-being.For example,some impacts are felt through changes in average climat
73、e conditions,such as water scarcity or the spatial distribution of plants,crops,and wildlife,while others are felt through changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events,such as heat waves,drought,floods,or storms.Impacts can be direct,such as when higher temperatures affect health
74、,well-being,or labor productivity,or indirect,such as when changes in climate affect the distribution of pests that affect agricultural yields or magnify conflict.The first set of CCDRs examine many impact channelsincluding effects on labor productivity,agricultural yields,or natural hazardsto ident
75、ify opportunities for protecting economies and populations.The future impacts of climate change critically depend on the choices we make today.Impacts can be reduced in the short term with appropriate development and adaptation policies and interventions,and in the medium-to-long term by reducing gl
76、obal emissions.GHG emissions,demographics,technologies,working conditions,and social and physical infrastructures will have a large impact on both the magnitude of climate change and the vulnerability of affected economies and populations.2.1.Climate change has widespread,deep,and cascading effects
77、across most sectors Sectoral,macroeconomic,and poverty impact assessments demonstrate vulnerability to climate change,especially in low-income and high-poverty countries.The impacts of climate change are wide-ranging and complex,and they often cascade across sectors and systems.And despite being par
78、tial and not extending beyond 2050(when the worst impacts are expected),the CCDR impact assessments demonstrate that climate change has significant implications for food security,human health,economic opportunities,and development outcomes(table 1).The CCDRs also show that impacts tend to be localiz
79、ed,with countries and regions exposed to different threats.For example,in Sub-Saharan Africa,where very poor people spend a large share of their budget on food,people are highly vulnerable to agricultural impacts locally and in other big food-producing countries.The direct impact of higher temperatu
80、res on labor productivityespecially for outdoor workersis one of the main sources of economic damage across all countries.Climate changecaused by GHG emissions from human activitiesposes a major threat to long-run development objectives,especially poverty reduction.With appropriate adaptation polici
81、es,countries can reduce impacts in the short term.Even with appropriate adaptation,successful development and poverty reduction require rapid reductions in global GHG emissions,which requires first and foremost accelerated mitigation action in HICs and other large emitters.TABLE S.1:Examples of clim
82、ate change impacts from the first set of CCDRs Agriculture and food By 2030,Vietnam could experience agricultural losses of up to 6.2%compared to 2010 levels as opposed to a scenario without climate change where agricultural output is estimated to increase by 25%In Argentina,annual losses in rainfed
83、 agriculture from water deficits or excesses are estimated at$2.1 billion(0.6%of GDP)By 2050,in a dry or hot scenario,the Sahel countries could experience a 510%and 1120%fall in crop revenues and livestock yield,respectively,while in a wet scenario,the impact on livestock yields could be positive in
84、 all countries By 2050,without climate change adaptation,more than 2.6 million units of livestock(71%of the current total)in Cameroon could be under drought-induced stress conditions annually By 2050,overall food production in Egypt could decline by 5.7%Water Without reallocation of labor and capita
85、l and new investments,a 20%fall in water availability could lead to a reduction in GDP of up to 6.6%in Jordan In Bangladesh,projected sea level rise could nearly double asset risk(currently about$300 million per year)by 2050,while threatening agricultural production,water supplies,and coastal ecosys
86、tems Without reform,a 10%fall in water supply in Trkiye could reduce GDP by 6%Water availability in Iraq could decline by 1328%by 2050 due to climate changeTransport Annual capital and operations and maintenance(O&M)spending on roads in Malawi could increase by about$100 million compared to historic
87、al spending in a business-as-usual scenarioEnergy By 2040,hydropower generation in Ghana could be reduced by 830%compared to 2020 levels 10%of electricity in Kazakhstan is from hydropower,with over half generated in river basins with high or extreme water stress Industry and services Heat-related di
88、seases in Ghana could reduce labor productivity in manufacturing sectors by up to 2.6%by 2050 Due to increased frequency,duration,and intensity of heat waves,outdoor worker productivity in some provinces of China could decline by 215%by 2060Urban development Without planning for resilient urban grow
89、th,the population exposed to a 1-in-100-year pluvial flood in Egypt could increase by 35%by 2030,with an additional 1.1 million people living in flood-prone areas In 2018,floods in Rwanda caused 2.4%of GDP in damage to physical assets By 2050,619%of the urban population in six major metropolitan are
90、as in South Africa could be vulnerable to floodingHealth In Pakistan,preliminary estimates of the impacts of the 2022 monsoon floods suggest the national poverty rate will increase by 4.5 to 7.0 percentage points,and that total losses amount to$26 billion(as of October 19,2022),with 1,900 cases of a
91、cute watery diarrhea,200 cases of malaria and 50 cases of dengue fever reported across flood affected areas By 2050,in a moderate-warming scenario,increased temperatures in Argentina could slightly reduce mortality thanks to a decrease in extreme cold days,but climate change would increase mortality
92、 under a pessimistic-warming scenarioEducation In 2021,a typhoon in the Philippines affected 30,000 schools serving around 12 million students in 11 regions,with$1.2 billion in repair costs(about 10%of the education departments annual budget)While drought conditions in Malawi increase the probabilit
93、y of an individual falling below the poverty line by 14%,the impact on individuals with only a primary education rises to 26%,versus 9%for those with a higher educationTourism In Rwanda,higher average temperatures could cause international tourism demand to drop by 1120%by 2040 The National Tourism
94、Investment Master Plan 202242 for Malawi identifies lake,nature,and wildlife tourism as the countrys core tourism products,and they will suffer from biodiversity loss and land degradation11Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 12Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action The macroeconomic e
95、ffects of climate change on gross domestic product(GDP)are significant,particularly for poorer countries,even when estimated only for a subset of impact categories and without exploring the larger impacts expected post-2050.While current knowledge does not allow for an exhaustive assessment of all c
96、limate change impact channelsespecially some of the biggest risks linked to ecosystem or economic tipping points3the CCDRs focus on some of the most critical impacts:on labor productivity,agricultural yields,water availability,natural disaster risks,migration,among others.But even with a partial ana
97、lysis,figure 2 shows that impacts have significant economywide costs,as measured against GDP,particularly for poorer countries and under a higher warming scenario.The time profile of these impacts(for example,whether they cause a constant slowing down of economic growth or a sudden shock or crisis t
98、riggered by extreme events or threshold effects)is uncertain but would matter for their eventual impact on well-being.FIGURE 2:Estimated impacts of climate change on GDP by 2050,based on a subset of impact channels01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000GDP per capita($,2020)-12-10-8-6-4-20Cha
99、nge in GDP(percentage change)PeruArgentina Kazakhstan GhanaBangladeshMauritaniaPakistanNepalNigerChadBurkina FasoMaliCameroonClimate scenarioOptimisticIntermediatePessimisticNigerBurkina FasoMaliNotes:All country results are based on the World Banks Macro-Fiscal Model(MFMod),except for Ghana and Cam
100、eroon which are based on the World Banks Mitigation,Adaptation,and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium(MANAGE).Warming categories correspond to levels of radiative forcing,as modeled by the integrated assessment models,as well as the selection of more optimistic climate models(e.g.,those wi
101、th more manageable impacts on water availability).Optimistic scenario=1.92.6 Watts per square meter(W/m2)by 2100;intermediate scenario=4.5 W/m2 by 2100;pessimistic scenario=7.08.5 W/m2 by 2100.Climate change can deepen monetary poverty through its impact on agricultural yields,food prices,health,lab
102、or productivity,and other factors.Aggregate GDP or consumption impacts do not capture the full extent of welfare and equity implications for two reasons:because actual impacts are highly heterogenous and more pronounced for poor countries and people,and because low-probability,high-impact risks are
103、difficult to assess.Higher vulnerability of people in or close to poverty is sometimes linked to higher exposure to riskfor example,through dependency on agricultural income or low-quality housing.But it can also be linked to a lower ability to prepare and respond,due to a lack of savings and access
104、 to borrowing,remittances,social protection,insurance,and other support systems,and a lack of voice in decision making.In Peru,simultaneous shocks to food prices and agricultural earnings resulting from a 25 percent 3 A tipping point describes a situation when a system changes permanently once a tem
105、porary disturbance has shifted it beyond a certain threshold.Tipping point thresholds can be physical(e.g.,collapsing ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica),ecological(e.g.,risk of collapse of ecosystems like the Amazon),or socioeconomic(e.g.,permanent decline in investment or out-migrations in a re
106、gion).13Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action fall in yield would increase poverty by up to 1 percentage point.The impact would be modulated by geography,with rural households in mountain areas most sensitive to losses in earnings,and urban coastal dwellers more responsive to price shocks.In
107、the Sahel countries,the poverty rate could increase from a 27 percent baseline to 34 percent in the dry and pessimistic scenario,with another 13.5 million people falling into poverty.Climate change impacts on well-being go beyond monetary impacts and include various deprivations,such as food insecur
108、ity and loss of historical or cultural heritage.In the Philippines,for example,agricultural productivity is estimated to decline by 921 percent due to climate change by 2050.The first set of CCDRs does not include small islands that may face more dauntingor even existentialchallenges with very limit
109、ed adaptation options.But CCDRs covering small islands are currently in progress(figure 1).Climate change impacts can widen gender gaps.In Cameroon,low levels of human capital and the gender division of agricultural labor make women particularly vulnerable to climate change.In the Sahel,food insecur
110、ity is particularly challenging for women,who provide 70 percent of the labor in the food economy,a sector heavily influenced by climatic change.The increased risk to their livelihoods means a greater risk of food insecurity and malnutrition.Anemia due to malnutrition in pregnant women increases the
111、 risk of stunting in children,with deleterious effects on their future productivity and trapping families in a vicious cycle of poverty and vulnerability.Fragility and conflicts are major magnifiers of future climate impacts and reduce peoples ability to prepare and respond,while climate impacts oft
112、en increase the likelihood of conflict.Waves of conflictsome caused by pressure on fertile lands made rarer by environmental changehave destabilized the Sahel region and could create a negative feedback loop,as more conflict makes it harder for communities to cope with climate change impacts,which l
113、eads to more violence and conflict,further reducing resilience to climate change.The poverty impacts of climate change will also be higher in rural areasincluding in poor and insecure border communities in Chad,Niger,and Maliincreasing urban-rural inequality.In Iraq,a social media survey and focus g
114、roup discussions confirm rising concerns about the impact of climate change on displacement and conflict within the next five years,and a willingness to contribute to climate change actions and interact with the government on climate change.Given the risk of adaptation and mitigation measures to exa
115、cerbate underlying drivers of fragility and conflict,promoting conflict-sensitivity of climate actions and policies is crucial.2.2.Boosting resilience and adaptation is an urgent and integral part of development and poverty reduction,especially in low-income countriesCountries can achieve greater re
116、silience through a three-pronged approach.This involves:first,rapid and inclusive development,especially poverty reduction and universal access to infrastructure and social services;second,a whole-of-society approach to resilience and adaptation,to ensure climate risks are considered in all decision
117、s and investments;and third,a set of targeted sectoral interventions covering human capital,infrastructure,and various economic sectors.Inclusive development facilitates climate adaptationDevelopment and lower levels of poverty enable people,firms,and communities to better adapt to,cope with,and rec
118、over from,the impacts and shocks associated with climate change.A world free from poverty,where everyone has access to clean energy and water,quality health 14Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action care and education,decent jobs,and reliable social safety nets,is more resilient to climate chan
119、ge and extreme events.CCDRs include many examples where a well-functioning economic system,coupled with policies that ensure equitable access to resources and basic services,helps reduce climate change impacts thanks to stronger human capital,better access to financing or technologies,reallocation o
120、f resources across sectors,or more fiscal space for government action.These are a prerequisite for building resilience,facilitating and financing the transition,and reducing macroeconomic and social costs of climate change impacts.For instance,the CCDRs identify functioning labor markets as key for
121、adaptation in Ghana or the Sahel countries and discuss domestic resource mobilization and fiscal space for South Africa and Trkiye.A supportive policy environment and incentives allow the private sector to consider climate risks,opportunities,and impacts when deciding the location,design,and technol
122、ogy options of investments,products,supplies,and production processes.Land markets that price flood risks and labor markets that facilitate workers transition can also play a crucial role in dampening the impacts of a changing climate.Reflecting this principle in the CCDR scenarios,estimated annual
123、GDP losses are higher in the low-growth than the medium-and higher-growth scenarios for Chad,Mali,Malawi,and Niger,because the former involves little or no structural transformation and assumes that the economy continues to be dominated by the traditional agriculture sector,which would be subject to
124、 larger negative shocks.4 A whole-of-society approach is needed to facilitate adaptation and resilienceDevelopment alone is not enough;the CCDRs show that targeted adaptation actions can significantly reduce the impacts of climate change and have high economic returns but require investment and majo
125、r improvements in decision making and governance.Figure 3 shows that even a limited set of adaptation measures substantially reduces climate change impact on GDP.In the Sahel,under a medium-growth scenario,the reduction in total GDP losses in 2050(the difference between no and partial adaptation)ran
126、ges from 2 to 5 percentage points.Adaptation and resilience interventions are good investments with high returns.And increasing resilience requires better decision making and mainstreaming of climate risks in all decisions(chapter 4).In Peru,adaptation investments have a positive impact on growth an
127、d increase GDP by 5 percent,mostly due to the co-benefits of agriculture,water,and sanitation investments.Building adaptation capacity and readiness requires a whole-of-society approach in everything from macroeconomic processes to local planning,with good policy design,public investments,robust ins
128、titutions and governance,and active engagement of the private sector.Despite making considerable progress in some areas,many countries still need to make concerted efforts to build capacity to address current risks and prepare for the new challenges and risks posed by climate change,especially in th
129、e financial sector and macrofiscal planning.Using the Adaptation Principles5 and an indicator-based scoring system,the CCDRs provide macro-level assessments of adaptation and resilience readiness in China,Trkiye,and Peru,three upper-middle-income countries(UMICs)with varying climate risks and vulner
130、abilities.Results show that the three countries are making progress toward adaptation and resilience capacity building in six key areas(figure 4),but progress is uneven.China performs relatively well with social,economic development,public and private sector research and development,and the enabling
131、 environment to support people and firms to adapt.But it could strengthen its legal framework,governance,and monitoring and 4 Annual GDP loss in percentage terms is more similar across all growth scenarios for Burkina Faso and Mauritania,where agriculture already represents less than 25%of GDP.5 Hal
132、legatte,S,Rentschler,J and Rozenberg,J.2020.The Adaptation Principles:A Guide for Designing Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience.World Bank,Washington,DC.15Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action evaluation(M&E)for adaptation and resilience,social protection of the poorest,bi
133、odiversity and natural resource protection,and better incorporation of nature-based solutions.Peru has made progress on legal frameworks to support implementation,coordination,and M&E of adaptation,but could make greater efforts to integrate implementation across national and local governments,prote
134、ct critical public services,such as water and health,improve land use planning,strengthen disaster risk management,and develop the insurance sector.Trkiye,on the other hand,has made significant efforts to build adaptive capacity to protect public assets and adapt land use,but would benefit from addr
135、essing foundational issues with social inclusion and macro-level policy and governance structure to enable households,the private sector,and communities to undertake effective adaptation actions.None of the countries assessed have sufficient mainstreaming of climate and disaster risk considerations
136、in financial and macro fiscal planning.FIGURE 3:GDP impacts of climate change in 2050 in pessimistic(high-emission)scenarios,with and without adaptation,for selected countriesMalawiMaliChadNigerBurkina FasoMauritaniaBangladeshPeru-10-505-4.4-11.0-6.7-10.7-5.7-10.5-8.4-11.9-4.2-6.8-5.1-7.2-0.6-3.74.2
137、-0.8Climate change impactsonly(small symbol)Climate change impactswith adaptation(largesymbol)GDP changes in 2050(percentage change)Low incomeLower middle incomeUpper middleincomeNotes:The small dot is partial impacts without adaptation;the large dot is partial impacts with(partial)adaptation and so
138、me of their co-benefitsFIGURE 4:Country adaptation and resilience readiness scores for China,Peru,and Trkiye0123Rapid,inclusive growthFacilitate adaptation ofpeople and firmsProtect public assetsand adapt land useResidual and disaster risk managementFinancial and macrofiscal planningPrioritization,i
139、mplementationand monitoringTrkiyeChinaPeruNotes:Countries are assessed along six key areas of adaptation and resilience,each based on a set of indicators,assessing progress with a score between 1 to 3(1=nascent,2=emerging,and 3=established)for each indicator.Aggregating the scores(with equal weight)
140、gave the score for each key area.16Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action Human capitalin the form of educated and healthy citizensand resilient education and health care systems are crucial for adaptive capacity.To improve productivity and build the skills they need for a newer and greener ec
141、onomy,and innovations for locally relevant climate solutions,countries must increase their capacity to build human capital through learning,training,public health,and safety net support.In the Sahel,investing in childrens(especially girls)health and nutrition is essential to reduce fertility rates a
142、nd achieve sustainable growth.In countries like Cameroon,where climate change is a main driver of food insecurity,developing an integrated health or surveillance system using the One Health frameworkwhich considers the nexus between animal,human,and environmental healthis vital for monitoring climat
143、e change-related diseases,integrating emergency planning and early warning systems,and raising awareness.6 Natural capital and land use also play key roles in improving resilience and long-term development prospects,with ecosystems already providing significant climate adaptation and mitigation bene
144、fits globally.With climate change,the value of ecosystems(such as mangroves and wetlands)as a means of reducing risk to critical infrastructure and avoiding loss of life will continue to increase.Climate change impacts require coordinated action to address the threats facing agriculture,water,and th
145、e environment,collectively maintaining or restoring natural capital.For example,human activities compound the risks resulting from climate change in the Amazon biomes,threatening the ecosystem services they provide,from rich biodiversity to pollination,soil formation,erosion control,protection,nutri
146、ent cycling,water cycle regulations,and carbon sequestration.Forestry and land use are also important priorities for achieving Rwandas vision of transitioning towards a green economy.The countrys economic transformation pillar prioritizes sustainable natural resource management and the environment,w
147、ith objectives to increase forestry management sustainability and profitability,manage and protect water catchments to mitigate disasters,and strengthen land administration and management.In Vietnam,where more than 35 percent of coastal settlements are on eroding coastlines,the CCDR recommends the a
148、doption of nature-based solutions to harness the protective function and economic contribution of ecosystems(including mangroves and sand dunes)as well as a systematic approach to their rehabilitation,conservation,monitoring,and management.Targeted sectoral adaptation interventions are key and can g
149、enerate large benefitsBeyond mainstreaming,all the CCDRs identify major opportunities to boost resilience and adaptation with targeted adaptation interventions at the sector level.The diversity and context-specificity of adaptation interventions identified in the CCDRs illustrate the challenge of ad
150、aptation:a successful resilience strategy implies full mainstreaming of climate change risks into decision making,as well as numerous localized and targeted adaptation interventions.Changes in hydrological cycles from warming are creating significant challenges for water security and water resource
151、management.In Peru,one-third of the countrys population lives in the Lima metropolitan area,which relies heavily on water from glacial melt.As the country has lost about 43 percent of its surface glacial area since 1970,it is likely to experience significant reduction in water flow as early as 2030.
152、The Argentina Water Security Diagnostic7 identifies$97 billion in priority investments by 2030including safe water and sanitation services,green infrastructure for flood and drought mitigation,and deepening the Paran-Paraguay waterwaywhich could increase GDP by 2.7 percent in 2030.Egypt is actively
153、investing in nonconventional 6 Berthe,F C J B,Timothy,K,William,B L G,Francois,G M,Catherine,C P,Caroline,A S and Richard M.2018.One Health:operational framework for strengthening human,animal and environmental public health systems at their interface.Washington,DC:World Bank.7 Argentina Water Secur
154、ity:Valuing WaterBrief for Policy Makers(English).Washington,DC:World Bank Group.http:/documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/9456729/W21006-Argentina-WSD-Policy-Brief-Accessible.17Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action water resources,methane emissions reduction,and biogas generation,w
155、hile water also plays critical role in enabling countries such as Kazakhstan and Ghana to sequester more carbon from rangelands.The transmission of climate risk through water scarcity is similarly prominent in all CCDR countries of the Middle East and North Africa region(Egypt,Iraq,Jordan,Morocco).M
156、any CCDRs,such as Morocco,highlight the limits of supply-side approaches to water management and recommend complementing them with strong demand management policies,including water-saving irrigation technologies(drip and in-soil irrigation,sprinkling,local-impulse irrigation,irrigation along furrows
157、,regulation of irrigation of fields)and diversifying crop production to higher-value crops with lower water use.As discussed in section 3.2,watershed and environmental protection and restoration can also provide benefits in terms of increased carbon sinks and reduced GHG emissions.To address climate
158、 impacts and build resilience for the agriculture and food sectors,but also respond to long-term issues such as chronically underproductive agricultural systems,the CCDRs present a variety of technology options as well as policy reforms under the broader umbrella of climate-smart agriculture(CSA).Fo
159、r example,the Sahel CCDR notes that sustained increases in productivity require a combination of expanded sustainable land management practices,enhanced availability and adoption of climate-resilient production technologies and practices,expanded access to finance and financial risk management servi
160、ces,and effective preservation of agrobiodiversity.In Morocco,where rural livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to droughts and water scarcity,the CCDR recommends that,as well as public investments in irrigation,the country focus on adaptation options for rainfed agriculture along CSA principles.T
161、he Bangladesh CCDR notes the need to diversify agricultural production as an adaptation option,driven by the introduction and commercialization of CSA practices.The Iraq CCDR recommends adaptation actions focused on the water-agriculture-poverty nexus that contribute to food security and support the
162、 resilience of the most vulnerable.The China CCDR recommends promoting science-based planning for crop distribution,systematically integrating nature-based solutions into landscape planning,and developing dedicated sectoral guidance on climate action and adaptation response.In Peru,the CCDR recommen
163、ds facilitating the integration of small low-productivity farmers from the Sierra and Selva regions into the value chains of high-productivity exporting farmers from the coast,as a way to increase small farmers productivity while increasing the resilience of large coastal farms,which face increasing
164、 water scarcity.Connectivity infrastructure to address critical rural accessibility supports the welfare of vulnerable and isolated communities,while also improving the economys resilience to public health and economic shocks.CCDR analyses in Malawi,Peru,Vietnam,and Argentina highlighted how resilie
165、nce in the transport sector goes beyond considering the climate adaptation of individual infrastructure assets.It is important to also consider services,systems,strategic supply chains,and the criticality of network connectivity to ensure uninterrupted movement of people and goods in the face of cli
166、mate hazards,global pandemics,food scarcities,and other shocks.Social protection can build resilience to climate shocks through productive inclusion or livelihoods programs,and savings programs,which protect households when a climate shock hits.At a local level,community and public works programs th
167、at restore land,promote home or community gardens,and repair culverts or roads can also support adaptation by reducing the severity of climate impacts.In the aftermath of climate disasters,digital identity systems can ensure access to social safety nets while digital financial services can distribut
168、e funds.In Bangladesh,cash-based shock-responsive social protection programs leverage existing government-to-person platforms to target 18Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action the urban poor and climate migrants.Ghana has two large social protection programsLivelihood Empowerment Against Pove
169、rty and Labor-Intensive Public Workswhich it can scale up and adapt to disaster shocks.In the Sahel,social protection programs are explicitly adaptive to respond rapidly to climate shocks,provide immediate relief to affected households,and contribute to the adaptation agenda by building household re
170、silience.National health insurance programs need to be expanded to increase access to the poorest and most vulnerable.Because the rise in disaster risk is intertwined with climate,it is important to boost disaster risk management(DRM)and ensure that infrastructure systems are designed and constructe
171、d for current and future climate risks.In Ghana,various agencies engage in producing and disseminating early warning information and developing early warning systems.Many adaptation operations are grounded in cities,as evidenced by Vietnams need for sustainable urban development with infrastructure
172、and services that strengthen climate resilience,reduce the cost of disasters,and enhance integration with nature.More generally,land use and spatial planning must incorporate disaster risk reduction measures to promote climate resilience,and should be integrated into country frameworks to ensure the
173、se are applied at local level,targeting vulnerable and minority groups.Coastal areas are especially affected by storms,floods,and sea level rise,presenting significant needs in countries like Bangladesh for investing in disaster-resilient institutions,frameworks,systems,and critical infrastructure.T
174、he China CCDR recommends combining gray and green infrastructure solutions to manage flood and drought risks in cities,settlements,and key infrastructure.The CCDRs also identify building strong hydrological and meteorological(hydromet)services to provide the data and information needed to adapt to c
175、limate change and prevent natural disasters as a priority.Countries need connectivity,data infrastructure,and the right skills to monitor climate change impacts and make informed adaptation decisions.For example,an assessment8 of Kazakhstans capacity to monitor,forecast,project,and issue warning abo
176、ut climate-related hazards concluded that the countrys hydromet service has substantial capacity,highly motivated,well-educated,and trained staff,good technical infrastructure,and functioning working procedures and methods.But areas for improvement include strengthening interaction with users,shifti
177、ng to demand-driven product development,continuing to strengthen its scientific infrastructure and staff capacities,and engaging more in international efforts to improve global weather,climate and water monitoring,forecasting,and information services.Private sector climate resilience and preparednes
178、s are still at an early stage of development,and policy and institutional structures are required to unleash innovation and enable private sectors to incorporate climate risks and invest in resilience.Multiple barriers prevent the private sector from taking climate resilience actions,including a lac
179、k of climate risk information,capacity,regulatory guidance,and incentives to incorporate climate risks.In Trkiye,for example,only 5-10 percent of firms have climate change objectives and a dedicated managerial role for environment and sustainability.As well as an enabling policy environment that add
180、resses market failures,the development and wider adoption of different instrumentssuch as insurance schemes and public-private partnershipscan help accelerate private sector resilience actions.In Rwanda,the World Bank-funded Commercialization and De-risking for Agricultural Transformation project he
181、lps modernize irrigation infrastructure with water-efficient technologies.8 This assessment was based on the methodology of the Alliance for Hydromet Developments Country Hydromet Diagnostics (https:/alliancehydromet.org/country-hydromet-diagnostics/).19Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 2
182、.3.Even with adaptation,successful development and poverty reduction require accelerated mitigation action,especially from high-income countries and large emittersLimits to adaptation and the growing risks of tipping points highlight the need for accelerated action to reduce global GHG emissions.Whe
183、n climate-related impacts reach a tipping point,they can exceed the resilience of socioeconomic systems.For example,continued deforestation in the Amazon Basin could lead to a tipping point beyond which large areas of South America would be unable to sustain their ecosystems and native forests,affec
184、ting rainfall and water availability in particular.Socioeconomic tipping points are reached when a community moves from stability to instabilityfor example,if a systemic share of the skilled labor force decides to out-migrate in response to deteriorating climate conditions,it would jeopardize prospe
185、cts for the rest of the population.Rapid acceleration of global mitigation action is urgently needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.Under current policy scenarios(as well as worse-case scenarios),implemented policies and actions would lead to warming well in excess of the agreed obje
186、ctive of keeping the global temperature rise well below 2 or even 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial temperatures.According to the Climate Action Tracker,9 which covers 85 percent of current global emissions,countries international targets and commitments for 2030 bring the world closer
187、to an estimated warming of around 2.4 degrees Celsius.The long-term commitments are even more ambitious and would lead to an estimated 2.1-degree Celsius warming(1.8 degrees if all announced pledges are implemented).The large gap between targets and policies highlights the major implementation chall
188、enge facing the world.While all countries have a role to play to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement,HICswith their greater responsibility for historical emissions,higher emissions per capita,higher capacity to develop new solutions and technologies,10 and larger resourcesmust lead the way
189、 with deeper decarbonization at a faster pace.Poor countries and people contribute very little to GHG emissions(figure 5).But,as discussed in section 2.1,they need to increase energy and material consumption to meet basic development needsby ensuring people have access to electricity,improved water
190、and sanitation,health,and educationand to create the jobs and businesses needed to reduce poverty.The CCDRs argue that eventually,all countries will need to act,particularly HICs and the middle-income large emitters,which are responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions.LICs and MIC
191、s must also act now to avoid locking into carbon-intensive energy systems,urban forms,industries,or infrastructure systems,which will be difficult to correct in the future.9 https:/climateactiontracker.org/.10 See also section 4.4 on the role of higher-income countries in developing new technologies
192、 and bearing associated risks.20Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action FIGURE 5:Net GHG emissions per capita,2019a)By country and GDP(selected countries)05540Micronesia,Fed.Sts.Russian FederationPapua New GuineaEgypt,Arab Rep.United StatesSwitzerlandBangladeshEl SalvadorIndonesiaMya
193、nmarSri LankaThailandLao PDRBelizeQatarChinaIndia0K10K20K30K40K50K60K70K80K90K100K110K120KGDP per capita($,2019)05540United Arab EmiratesSingaporeNew ZealandAustraliaAustriaBahrainBarbadosBelgiumBelizeBoliviaBotswanaBrunei DarussalamCanadaChileDenmarkFinlandFranceGuyanaIcelandIrelandKuwai
194、tLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayOmanPalauQatarSaudi ArabiaSloveniaSwedenSwitzerlandTurkmenistanUnited StatesPopulationAverage GHG emissions per capita(tCO2e/person/year,2019)Average GHG emissions per capita(tCO2e/person/year,2019)b)By country income groupHigh income29.7%Low income4.6%Lower middle i
195、ncome22.6%Upper middle income43.1%Source:Emissions data from Climate Watch World Resources Institute 2022 https:/www.climatewatchdata.org;GDP and population data from the World Bank DataBank21Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action 3.Climate objectives can be achieved without compromising devel
196、opment3.1.Structural change and supportive policy environments are needed for successful and just climate action Reforms that tackle underlying structural obstacles for growth and development,including barriers to private sector participation,are imperative to facilitate country responses to climate
197、 change.The recommendations in many CCDRs are fully consistent with other World Bank Group diagnosticsincluding Country Economic Memorandums and Poverty Assessmentshighlighting the synergies between development,economic growth,and climate action.They conclude that implementing climate policies requi
198、res broad economic and development reforms to tackle structural challenges such as macroeconomic stability,institutional capacity,multilevel governance,and market frictions.In Argentina and Trkiye,priorities are reducing macroeconomic volatility,stabilizing inflation,and improving fiscal policy mana
199、gement to incentivize a more robust inflow of foreign direct investment and ensure the required public and private investments.In the Sahel,addressing the drivers of fragility,conflict,and violence is crucial for achieving sustainable,resilient,and inclusive growth.In Peru,tackling informality can h
200、elp reduce illegal deforestation,and in China,providing a predictable regulatory environment will improve the investment climate for private sector participation.Improving the multilevel governance framework and undertaking reforms to strengthen national and local institutional capacity will facilit
201、ate the transition in Cameroon,Egypt,Morocco,Peru,and Nepal.Diversification offers a clear synergy in highly specialized countries to enhance economic growth,reduce climate change vulnerability,and facilitate emission reductions.In economies that specialize in fossil fuel exports(Iraq,Kazakhstan),ag
202、ricultural commodities(Argentina),or where agricultural production is vulnerable(Argentina,Sahel),there is a strong overlap between climate-related and growth-enhancing recommendations.For example,energy exporters such as Iraq would benefit from greater export competitiveness in non-oil sectors,and
203、global climate policies amplify the importance of this diversification.Similarly,energy importers such as Trkiye or Vietnam benefit from reducing fossil fuel dependence to shield their economies from fuel price volatility and benefit from developing domestic sources of renewable energy to meet growi
204、ng demand.Decarbonizing the economy requires reform,resources for investment,and support for affected people,which are more easily available in a context of rapid growth,strong governance with Substantial reductions in GHG emissions are compatible with economic growth and country development goals,b
205、ut only if key conditions are met,including well-designed climate actions,strong participation of the private sector,adequate international support,and appropriate complementary measures to manage unavoidable trade-offs,protect poor peoples consumption,and facilitate a just transition.Most CCDR low-
206、carbon development pathways are more ambitious than existing Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)and they would reduce total GHG emissions in CCDR countries by 70 percent by 2050,compared with a current-policy scenario.Taken together,however,they would still lead to significant emissions in 205
207、0.This shows not only the need to adjust these pathways to increase ambition over time,but also for enhanced support from and action in HICs,including with negative emissions.22Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action efficient institutions,good budget management and procurement,and universal ac
208、cess to financial services and global capital markets.Without addressing underlying structural labor market issues and constraints on private labor demand,countries will struggle to mitigate the impacts of climate change on workers and facilitate the labor market transition required to support a shi
209、ft toward more climate-responsive economies.Climate actions create opportunities for new jobs;but spatial,skill,and expectation mismatches can erode these benefits.Complementary policies and programs will maximize positive job outcomes and minimize disruptions and displacement from decarbonization a
210、nd transition.All the CCDRs find that the private sector could play a key role in boosting adaptation and mitigation and needs enabling conditions and targeted support to reach its full potential.As well as providing technological solutions and innovation,promoting higher efficiencyevidence from Chi
211、na suggests that the private sector may be significantly more energy-efficient than state-owned enterprise(SOEs)the private sector provides capital for investments.In Trkiye and Peru,half of the investment needs for climate action are expected to come from the private sector.But to meet this expecta
212、tion,the private sector needs an enabling environment and the right incentives,such as subsidy reforms and carbon pricing(section 4.1).Countries cannot afford to wait to have fixed all their governance challenges before starting to invest in climate action.All the CCDRs conclude that strong institut
213、ional and governance environments would reduce costs and maximize the benefits of transition.On the other hand,the urgency of climate action means that a parallel approach is needed in strengthening institutions and investing in climate action.So,the CCDRs identify synergies they can capture without
214、 delay,even with imperfect institutions,governance,and economic structures.3.2.Sectoral transitions with private sector mobilization create opportunities to reduce GHG emissions while contributing to developmentIf well designed,short-term climate actions that reduce emissions can accelerate local ec
215、onomic growth and development while contributing to the global long-term temperature goal.Cleaner and more efficient technologies are often more productive and less expensive than fossil-fuel technologies,and the barriers to more resilient and lower-carbon development are also barriers to economic t
216、ransformation and economic growth.11 This section highlights the main synergies the CCDRs identify between development and climate action,which are found in the key transitions identified in the CCAP.Climate policies can also create trade-offs and have negative poverty and distributional consequence
217、s,and so require careful design and complementary interventions.In Argentina,China,Peru,the Philippines,Vietnam,and Egypt,carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidy removal could increase poverty in the short run through higher prices,unless these effects are mitigated by recycling a portion of fiscal s
218、avings or carbon revenue into compensation for poorer households.Removing and repurposing water subsidies that encourage excessive water consumption,especially in agriculture,is also important for long-term resilience,but may have negative implications for small farmers in the short term.To that end
219、,some of the CCDRs(Morocco,Pakistan,Iraq)recommend offering support to facilitate the shift to less water-consuming crops or more efficient irrigation 11 For a framework identifying the opportunities for climate action to facilitate development,see World Bank.2012.Inclusive Green Growth:The Pathway
220、to Sustainable Development.These opportunities come from accelerating the accumulation of physical,human,or natural capital;improving efficiency by removing distortions;or accelerating innovation and productivity growth.23Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action systems.For large fossil fuel pro
221、ducers,such as South Africa,mine and power plant closures can have negativeand often spatially concentratedimpacts on some communities in the short term,requiring extensive redistribution to compensate affected workers and communities(see also section 4.4).FIGURE 6:Evolution of the share of renewabl
222、e energy and coal capacity in a subset of countriesa)Share of renewable energy capacityEast Asia&PacificChinaVietnamEurope&Central AsiaTrkiyeMiddle East&North AfricaEgypt,ArabRep.IraqJordanMoroccoSouth AsiaBangladeshSub-Saharan AfricaBurkinaFasoGhanaMalawiMaliMauritaniaNigerSouth Africa2020203020402
223、050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year2020203020402050Year0%20%40%60%80
224、%100%Renewable capacity installed(share of total)Baseline Low-carbon development pathwayb)Installed coal capacityEast Asia&PacificChina202020302040Year-2000200Installed coal capacity(GW)East Asia&PacificVietnamEurope&Central AsiaTrkiyeMiddle East&North AfricaMoroccoSouth AsiaBangladeshSub-Saharan Af
225、ricaMalawiNigerSouth Africa202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year-20020Installed coal capacity(GW)Baseline Low-carbon development pathwayNotes:In panel a,year 2020 data are set to equal modeled results for 2021 for Iraq and Jo
226、rdan.Renewables=solar,on-and offshore wind,and hydropower.In panel b,the vertical scale for installed capacity is different for China.Opportunities for renewable energy and clean cookingAll countries have an enormous opportunity to expand renewable energy to meet growing demand for electricity,impro
227、ve energy security,and reduce emissions in the energy sector,but require large investments in power grids and interconnections.Power sector modeling in several countries shows that solar and wind energy will play a significant part in meeting the growing demand for electricity this decade at the low
228、est cost to consumers.12 Figure 6a illustrates that in every baseline scenario,without considering climate objectives,expanding solar and wind energy 12 Power sector modeling includes a set of technologies,including fossil fuels(oil,gas,coal),renewable energy(hydropower,solar,wind,geothermal energy)
229、,other decarbonized technologies(nuclear,gas with carbon capture and storage,in some cases hydrogen),and electricity storage technologies(batteries,pumped hydropower).24Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action is part of the least-cost strategy to meet growing electricity demand.The role of sola
230、r and wind energy grows even larger in a low-carbon scenario,in which they represent almost all new capacity additions.Illustrating the aggregate capacity in all the CCDR countries in the baseline and low-carbon development scenarios,figure 7 shows the declining role of coal power(see also figure 6b
231、)and growth in solar and wind,with other technologies playing a stable or limited role.13 Battery energy storage plays a key role in many of the low-carbon scenarios,reaching a volume much larger than the current market(figure 8).FIGURE 7:Aggregated power generation capacity installed in baseline an
232、d low-carbon development scenarios in selected countriesBaselineLow-carbon development pathway20202025203020352040Year20202025203020352040Year01234567Installed capacity(terawatts)Energy sourceRenewablesNuclearOilGasCoalNotes:The ambition level and timing of the energy transitions analyses vary by co
233、untry.Some low-carbon development pathways were not designed to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.This figure describes the energy transition that resulted from these low-carbon analyses in aggregate but should not be interpreted as a prescription for low carbon development.Some of the natur
234、al gas capacity includes carbon capture and storage abatement.Within the analyses,nuclear deployment reflects the commitments of governments.Total capacity is higher in the low-carbon development pathway,due to lower capacity factor and increased demand from electrification in other sectors.Countrie
235、s included in the figure are:Angola,Bangladesh,Burkina Faso,China,Egypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Morocco,Niger,South Africa,Trkiye,and Vietnam.FIGURE 8:Battery energy storage capacity for selected countriesEast Asia&PacificVietnamEurope&Central AsiaTrkiyeMiddle East&North AfricaEgypt
236、,ArabRep.IraqJordanMoroccoSouth AsiaBangladeshSub-Saharan AfricaAngolaBurkinaFasoGhanaMaliMauritaniaNigerSouth Africa202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year202020302040Year2020203
237、02040Year202020302040Year202020302040YearInstalled capacity(GW)00Note:The figure shows battery storage results from the World Banks Energy Planning Model.13 For some countries,like Morocco and Trkiye,the power system is fully or almost fully decarbonized in 2050 with renewable share aroun
238、d 80%,with the residual power generation from other decarbonized sources,such as gas with carbon capture and storage or nuclear energy.25Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action The shift toward low-carbon development scenarios tends to moderately increase the present value of the system coststh
239、at is,the fixed cost of new generation and storage and the variable costs of producing electricitybut the increase in upfront capital cost rises much more substantially,making financing a major challenge in the transition(chapter 4).This is especially true in countries with a young coal power fleet(
240、China)where exiting from coal means retiring coal power plants early.In other countries,such as South Africa,where the coal power fleet is nearing its end of lifetime,additional investment needs will be smaller as the country will have to invest in new generation either way.But countries often lack
241、the policies and institutions required to attract or mobilize the financing they need to be able to invest in renewable energy at a speed and scale that will ensure they can meet their climate goals at the lowest cost.Many of the CCDRs recommend accelerating renewable energy development as the lowes
242、t-cost way to meet growing demand,with the additional benefits of improving energy security and access,reducing energy import bills,improving long-term balance of payments,and creating domestic jobs.In Iraq,energy costs per kilowatt hour are lower in scenarios with a higher share of renewable energy
243、 than business-as-usual scenarios.However,this is only true up to a specific level of penetration of renewable energy(31 percent);beyond this,decarbonization becomes more expensive.Yet some countries,such as Trkiye,face inertia when reconsidering uneconomic fossil fuel projects and still plan to inc
244、rease fossil fuel power generation capacity,which could create major economic costs in the next decades.Realizing renewable energy potential will require a parallel effort to strengthen electric utilities,as well as large investments in the grid and interconnections,flexibility in energy supply and
245、demand,and electricity storage.Governments should prioritize financially viable utilities that are able to partner with the private sector to deploy clean energy and continue investments in energy access and resilient network infrastructure.14 For example,Ghana is taking steps to address the precari
246、ous financial state of its utilities,recognizing this as an obstacle to developing renewable energy.In China,electricity market reforms and the integration of provincial and regional power markets would optimize overall capacity utilization,reduce system costs,and enhance flexibility,enabling a more
247、 efficient integration of renewable energy,and shift the role of its large coal fleet.Power systems with a large share of renewablessuch as Trkiyesalso require investments in the electricity grid(usually from public resources)and in sources of flexibility,from demand management to storage.Regional p
248、ower trade,which expands access to lower-cost and lower-emission electricity,also requires significant reform and investment(box 1).The transition is exposed to risks from bottlenecks in key green supply chains.The growth in renewable energy and storage requires rapid growth in the production capaci
249、ty of key products,such as solar panels and batteries(figure 8),as well as their recycling.Strong demand has led to rapid increase in the expected production capacity for 2030.15 For instance,the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries is expected to reach 5.9 terawatt hours by 2030(compared to
250、 0.8 in 2021).16 However,bottlenecks linked to raw materials,key components,or finished products are a challenge as well as an opportunity for many countries.14 Because financially unviable utilities cannot access affordable loans for network infrastructure,this impacts the cost of debt and equity f
251、or private sector-led renewable energy,directly impacting consumer affordability.While financial viability is being restored,credit enhancement could allow utilities to borrow at affordable rates and de-risking instrumentssuch as liquidity and termination guarantees or first losscould mitigate risks
252、 to private sector investment.15 For batteries,this demand is mostly linked to e-mobility that represents(and will continue to represent)most of the demand.16 Yu,A and Marjolin,A(April 12,2022)“Investment in lithium-ion batteries could deliver 5.9 TWh capacity by 2030.”S&P Global Market Intelligence
253、.https:/ and Development:An Agenda for Action For countries with energy access deficits,universal access to electricity and clean cooking are development priorities that are compatible with low-emissions development and provide health benefits.Clean cooking can replace traditional biomass use and re
254、duce deforestation,improving health and well-being for people living in or close to poverty.In the Sahel,grid and off-grid renewables could bring affordable,reliable electricity to the two-thirds of the population currently without access.In Rwanda,introducing efficient cookstoves and other clean co
255、oking technologies will reduce the incidence of respiratory diseases in the more than 80 percent of households that rely on wood for their cooking fuel.Opportunities in transport,buildings,and industries from electrification and energy efficiencyLow-carbon scenarios in the CCDRs include electrificat
256、ion of energy end use,such as in transport,buildings,and industries.As well as improving energy efficiency,electrification delivers GHG emission reductions when combined with action to reduce the carbon intensity of the power sector.As electrification increases growth in electricity demand,more inve
257、stment is needed in the power system.Complementing electrification with energy efficiency investments and regulations is therefore a strong focus of the CCDRs.Energy efficiency is an essential tool for harmonizing climate and development objectives;but most countries need to improve market signals t
258、hrough policies and pricing to attract efficiency investments at scale.LICs and MICs in all regions need new energy sources to meet rising demand amid security and affordability concerns exacerbated by current global crises.Cost-effective interventions to increase energy efficiency or manage energy
259、demand can help countries meet this challenge.Energy efficiency and other demand-side management approaches also make decarbonization of the power sector more affordable,improve energy security by reducing exposure to volatile fuel prices,and reduce emissions from fossil fuel combustion.In Trkiye,Bo
260、x 1:The potential of regional power tradeIncreasing power trade between Bhutan,Bangladesh,India,and Nepal makes economic and environmental sense.Asynchronies of demand and supply offer significant potential benefits from trade.India and Bangladesh can use hydropower from Nepal and Bhutan to meet sea
261、sonal summer peaks at lower cost,while the latter two can import power to firm up supply during the dry winter months,when hydroelectric output is low.Projected net electricity trade flows over the next decade are expected to generate significant annual economic benefits.The four countries have been
262、 working on a framework for cross-border electricity trading since 2014.India and Bhutan have a long-standing agreement under which India imports approximately 1,400 megawatts a year,allowing Bhutan to significantly develop its hydropower system.Nepal and India have recently signed a memorandum of u
263、nderstanding for cross-border electricity trade.Regional power integration can play a similarly important role for West African Power Pool members including Ghana,Burkina Faso,Mali,and Niger,as well as neighboring Mauritania.The West African Power Pool,which covers 14 countries from Nigeria to Seneg
264、al is an effort to create a unified regional electricity market.By 2025,the region aims to be interconnected,paving the way for regional power trade.To realize this potential,countries will have to establish commercial and operating frameworks and ensure that utilities have the financial strength to
265、 be credible trade counterparties and honor their payment obligations.27Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action electrifying buildings without increasing energy efficiency would put significant pressure on the power system and could more than double electricity generation investment needs.In Ka
266、zakhstan,energy efficiency improvements in key sectors can achieve total system cost savings of over$70 billion in the period to 2060(figure 9).FIGURE 9:Energy consumption in Kazakhstan in a low-carbon development scenario with and without energy efficiency,by sector0050060070080020202025
267、2030203520402045205020552060PetajoulesIndustryTransportBuildingsNotes:Solid lines show energy consumption in a net zero by 2060 scenario without energy efficiency.Dashed lines show energy consumption in a net zero by 2060 scenario with energy efficiency.Many of the CCDRs highlight the need to improv
268、e energy efficiency in the building sector.In the Philippines,improving energy efficiency in residential,commercial,and public buildings plays a critical role in the energy transition and moderating future electricity demand.This can be through regulations(for example,by enforcing energy-efficient b
269、uilding codes and minimum performance standards for air conditioners and major appliances)and incentives,such as rebates for purchasing high-efficiency appliances and accelerated permitting process for high-class green buildings.Co-benefits include lower emissions,household energy costs,and exposure
270、 to indoor air pollution,and higher capacity to withstand hotter and colder extreme temperatures.In Trkiye,for example,there are cost-saving opportunities to improve building energy efficiency while also performing life-saving seismic retrofits.Improving industrial energy efficiency through affordab
271、le technology solutions contributes to decarbonization while increasing productivity and strengthening export competitiveness.To improve energy efficiency,the Kazakhstan CCDR recommends adopting available technologies and software for deep energy audits and to digitize energy use data to mobilize ma
272、nagement information systems,inform line operators,and provide policy makers with aggregated data.In Bangladesh,energy efficiency solutions can reduce energy consumption in the ready-made garment and textile sector by around 30 percent and increase productivity by 1015 percent.While a modal shift aw
273、ay from road-based vehicle transport through multi-modality(for passengers)and inter-modality(for freight)is the primary win-win for development and climate,improving fuel efficiency and electrifying vehicles will also play a crucial role in the transition.Many of the CCDRs(Kazakhstan,Peru,Trkiye,Vi
274、etnam)highlight the Avoid-Shift-Improve 28Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action framework.This involves reducing demand for transport through land use and urban planning or technology(avoid),along with modal shifts from private vehicles to public and nonmotorized transport(shift),and improved
275、 fuel efficiency and electrification of vehicles(improve)to reduce congestion,air pollution,and GHG emissions,especially when combined with increasingly low-carbon electricity.As identified in the China CCDR,incentivizing private sector investments in fuel-saving technologies and electrification,dig
276、italization/automation for operating efficiency,and behavioral change can help countries improve energy efficiency in the transport sector.Similarly,the Vietnam CCDR recognizes the major role of the private sector in decarbonizing transport and recommends that the government develop a legal framewor
277、k for transitioning to electric vehicles(EVs),with clear targets and plans supported by a combination of regulations and fiscal incentives covering the supply side(manufacturing),demand side(purchase and usage),infrastructure,and financing.Raising Ghanas modest NDC ambitions on vehicle fuel efficien
278、cy standards and import regulations would increase productivity,improve road safety,and address air quality concerns,while also contributing substantially to decarbonization efforts.In Trkiye,the CCDR highlights opportunities from intermodality and shift to rail transport,noting that trucks account
279、for 72 percent of all ton-kilometers transported in the country,compared to 4 percent for rail freight,despite the trip distances and commodity profiles being generally favorable to rail use.As cities grow,integrated spatial planning to ensure that the growth is compact and resource-efficient will h
280、elp avoid locking into low-density,costly,and emissions-intensive sprawl that will be hard to correct in the future.Urban areas are responsible for nearly three-quarters of emissions today,a figure that is likely to increase as 2.5 billion people join the global urban population by 2050,mostly in LI
281、Cs and MICs.Research for the China CCDR found a strong negative relationship between urban density and per capita emissions.When well-coordinated with public and nonmotorized transportation,urban density enables shorter trips(avoid)and makes mass transit more viable(shift).It also reduces the embodi
282、ed emissions associated with new infrastructure such as buildings,roads,bridges,and pipes,enables greater building energy efficiency,and can reduce encroachment onto forest and agricultural land.The South Africa CCDR finds that implementing climate-smart urban policiessuch as land use planning,compa
283、ct urban forms,green buildings,and public mass transitcan reduce energy consumption,GHG emissions,and pluvial flood risk.Behaviors will play a key role in making development and climate objectives compatible.The CCDRs identify the importance of demand and consumption patternsfor example,for energy u
284、se in buildings,diet and food waste,nonmotorized transportation,or prioritizing products that respect certain norms,such as deforestation-free agricultural products,or goods produced with renewable energy.This emphasizes the importance of citizen participation,including poor and vulnerable populatio
285、ns,both in public debates about climate action and in community-targeted interventions(Trkiye,Vietnam).The latter range from awareness-raising and behavior-change initiatives(for example,using existing behavior change platforms,which are present in most social protection projects)to providing emerge
286、ncy food and nutrition support when food insecurity is acute.29Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action Box 2:Reducing methane emissions is vital to achieve global climate targetsMore than 121 countries have committed to collective action to reduce global methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030(
287、equivalent to shifting the global transport sector to net zero carbon dioxide emissions)as part of the Global Methane Pledge launched at the United Nations 26th Climate Change Conference,COP26.a For some of the countries covered by the first set of CCDRs,methane represents a significant share of ove
288、rall emissions,not only in the energy sector,but also from livestock,rice production,and waste.In Argentina,methane emissions accounted for 26 percent of GHGs in 2019,with 56 percent coming from agriculture,livestock,forestry,and other land use,14 percent from waste,and 30 percent from energy produc
289、tion(including fugitive emissions).Opportunities include:Abating the gas supply chain by capturing fugitive gases:in Iraq,more than 70 percent of methane emissions could be abated from oil and gas operations with existing technologies at no net cost Including methane in emissions trading(Kazakhstan)
290、Using the best available technologies in new industrial installations Improved farming techniques:alternate wetting and drying in rice production simultaneously reduces water use and methane emissions(Vietnam)Better livestock management,through improved pastures,feed,and animal health Improved manur
291、e management Improved municipal waste collection,sorting,and treatment,including capturing methane from landfill sites(Bangladesh)to boost renewable energy generation and reduce local air pollution.Figure B2.1:Methane emissions per sector in the CCDR countries,2008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,
292、800Emissions(MtCO2e)ChinaBrazil*Indonesia*IraqPakistanArgentinaSouth AfricaBangladeshEgypt,Arab Rep.VietnamKazakhstanPhilippinesTrkiyeAngola*ChadPeruMozambique*NigerNepalMaliCameroonBurkina FasoGhanaMoroccoHonduras*MauritaniaJordanMalawiRwanda27%21%12%42%21%8%37%27%15%49%44%60%26%15%50%34%7%18%15%13
293、%17%31%11%26%29%41%17%24%8%Methane emissions(percent of countrytotal)SectorFugitive emissionsEnergyAgricultureLand use change and forestryWasteOthers*=Forthcoming Source:Climate Watch,World Resources Institute 2022 https:/www.climatewatchdata.org Note:MtCO2e=million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
294、a See more on World Bank Group interventions to reduce methane emissions on www.worldbank.org/methane.30Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action Opportunities in land use,forestry,agriculture,and waterIn addition to enhancing the role of forests as carbon sinks,actions to protect and restore for
295、ests bring multiple economic benefits.Economic growth has often come at the cost of natural capital degradation.But there is increasing evidence that reversing deforestation trends can go hand in hand with job creation and economic growth.In Rwanda,for example,protecting foreststhe natural habitat f
296、or mountain gorillas and other ecotourism attractionsis essential for the health of the countrys tourism industry,which generated 21 percent of total export revenue over 201519.In Peru,where agriculture represents 90 percent of total deforested area,moving to a zero-carbon forest sector could genera
297、te an estimated 85,000 jobs per year by 2050 and bring$3.5 billion in benefits from recovered ecosystem services and developing the wood value chain.Improving land use planning and agriculture innovation systems,promoting intensification,and integrating smallholders and communal organizations into a
298、griculture value chains can not only help reverse deforestation,but boost incomes and access to markets as well.Countries also need to adapt to demands or requirements for deforestation-free commodity products.Argentinas important beef and soy exports are increasingly under pressure to demonstrate d
299、eforestation-free production;but the country cannot yet meet this standard,putting export earnings at risk.Controlling deforestation will provide benefits to commodity producers by keeping soy and beef trade options open.The Nepal CCDR similarly has a strong forestry narrative,featuring community-ba
300、sed groups successfully advancing reforestation and economic development.In many countries,forest landscapes offer an important offset for GHG emissions from other sectors.In Trkiye,recent efforts have increased forested area by 0.5 percent over 201020.And continued efforts to increase landscape res
301、toration,mainstream sustainable forest management,reduce illegal logging,optimize harvest rates and storage in long-lived wood products,promote efficient biomass fuel use,and strengthen fire management can generate greater negative emissions and help the country reach its objective of net zero emiss
302、ions by 2053.Moroccos Reforestation Program produces significant carbon benefits and promotes adaptation by prioritizing watersheds upstream from large dams to reduce siltation.It is clear from NDCs and other country strategies and policies that many countries recognize that agriculture plays a crit
303、ical role in reducing emissions and meeting their climate goals.Similarly,several of the proposed measures included in the CCDRs for mitigating GHG emissions would also augment countries resilience to climate change.Curbing deforestation in the Amazon Forest would also lower climate risks for agricu
304、lture across large parts of the South American continent,including impacts from erosion and changes in temperature and precipitation.Vietnams agriculture sector is the second-largest contributor of GHG emissions,contributing around 19 percent of total emissions in 2020,and its CCDR notes the opportu
305、nity to repurpose public expenditure in agriculture to support the adoption of lower-emitting crop varieties and production technologies.This includes alternate wetting and drying in rice production,which also provides major adaption benefits due to using less water and improving soil quality.Chinas
306、 CCDR recommends a set of interventions that reduce emissions and have adaptation co-benefits,including repurposing subsidies to support low-carbon land use,cutting food loss and waste,increasing efficiency in trade and food supply,and reusing agricultural waste.Opportunities in green value chains a
307、nd private sector developmentGlobal markets increasingly demand greener and lower-carbon content products,and the global transition also creates major opportunities to grow and export in green value chains,for countries at all income levels.With a large share of the world economy under net zero emis
308、sion pledges,31Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action technologies that are crucial for decarbonizationsuch as solar,wind,hydrogen,and EVsare expected to see drastic growth over the coming decades.Such a rapid scale-up in these critical green technologies has significant growth implications fo
309、r the industries and countries involved in all stages of their production.And because many components associated with green technology value chains are technologically sophisticated and have knowledge spillover opportunities,countries that cultivate competitiveness in these higher-complexity product
310、s could benefit from technological upgrading and export growth opportunities.Several of the CCDRs explore countries strengths and opportunities to diversify into key products and components associated with the solar,wind,and EV value chains,as well as other environmental goods.Countries with strong
311、manufacturing bases,such as China,Morocco,and Trkiye(figure 10),have a variety of competitive strengths in the EV and wind value chains.China is already the largest producer of renewable energy equipment and keeps investing massively in energy research,development,and innovation.These countries have
312、 numerous opportunities for diversifying further into export markets by developing competitiveness in products that require similar productive capabilities.Those with less advanced and less export-oriented manufacturing industries,such as Argentina(figure 10)and Kazakhstan,have a more select set of
313、strengths and therefore opportunities in lower-complexity products,components,and minerals.Policies to unlock further competitiveness and growth opportunities are highly country and industry-specific,with high import tariffs,non-tariff barriers,regulatory restrictions on environmental services techn
314、icians,and inadequate standards and quality infrastructure frameworks remaining key barriers to countries export competitiveness.In some cases,complementary investments are needed.Trkiyes relatively undeveloped charging infrastructure could,for example,slow down the growth of its nascent EV industry
315、.FIGURE 10:Export strengths in the solar,wind and EV value chains for Trkiye(left)and Argentina(right)Revealed comparative advantageRevealed comparative advantageTraded value chain productsNotes:The Product Complexity Index provides an indication of a products technological sophistication.Revealed c
316、omparative advantage reflects a countrys export share in a product relative to the global average.Bubble size reflects country trade volume.Countries endowed with critical minerals required for green technologies could see windfall gains,particularly if they can extract them sustainably.The projecte
317、d growth in green technologies is expected to drive a significant increase in demand for lithium,graphite,nickel,cobalt,manganese,and other minerals.Considered critical minerals,these are essential inputs for green technologies with uncertain supply due to geological,geopolitical,environmental,and o
318、ther constraints.Argentina,with the worlds third largest lithium reserves,is an example of a CCDR country with 32Climate and Development:An Agenda for Action rich endowments of critical minerals for the EV value chain.17 However,it is important that these minerals are explored using responsible and
319、sustainable management practicesincluding good water managementas countries otherwise risk significant environmental,social,and governance challenges.1817 The Argentina CCDR finds that by 2030 its lithium supply could meet between 12%(conservative scenario)and 19%(optimistic scenario)of global deman
320、d,becoming a relevant player in the global energy transition.18 Climate-smart mining practices include:using renewable energy to power mining machinery and transportation;encouraging innovation to drive resource and energy efficiency;adopting forest-smart mining practices to avoid and minimize negat
321、ive impacts to forested areas;and robustly managing geological data and environmental impacts.Box 3:Climate-development opportunities for the private sectorThe synergies between development and climate action highlighted in the CCDRs depend on private sector investments and innovation,but also creat
322、e major opportunities for private sector development,increased income and exports,and job creation.In the energy sector,the large growth in renewable energy capacity is expected to be largely financed by the private sector,which can also contribute to innovation in storage and demand-side management
323、.In transport and buildings,the private sector is also expected to play a leading role,with rapid innovation and growth already happening in the EV market.For example,electric two-and three-wheelers are starting to replace traditional vehicles in lower-income markets,and the global market for electr
324、ic cars,buses,and other vehicles offers an opportunity,especially for MICs with a pre-existing strong industrial sector.Trkiye,for example,is already exporting electric buses and has exported the worlds biggest electric ferryboat.Efforts to increase energy efficiency and resilience in buildings is a
325、nother major opportunity for the private sector,and especially small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs),and could create a large number of jobs.Several of the CCDRs note large employment gains in the construction sector.Climate-smart agriculture,forestry,and more generally landscape managementinclud
326、ing environmental and watershed restorationcan not only build resilience and reduce emissions,but also create many business opportunities and jobs(for example,an estimated 85,000 jobs per year by 2050 in Peru),including in rural areas where such opportunities are rarer,and poverty is higher.Beyond s
327、pecific sectors and technologies,the global transition toward lower-carbon economies creates both risks and opportunities for the private sector.Changes in consumer demand in major markets,new climate-informed import-market regulations,and trade rulessuch as the European Unions(EU)Carbon Border Adju
328、stment Mechanism(CBAM)can threaten existing positions,but offer opportunities for growing exports and sales.This is especially so for countries with low carbon intensity,which will be able to monitor and credibly report on the emissions(or deforestation)embedded in their goods and services.SMEs and
329、small producers face higher barriers to include climate change in their strategies,cope with climate change impacts,and navigate the transition;and firm surveys in many of the CCDR countries highlight that they are less prepared than larger firms.Considering the role of SMEs in job creation and long
330、-term development,supporting them is a priority in many countries.To invest in these sectors,the private sector needs clear signals and incentives from the public sector.These could be regulatory(vehicle emissions standards,building codes,financial sector standards,CBAMs,and so on)or fiscal(carbon t
331、axes,fossil fuel subsidy phase outs,public investments in certain technologies,and so on).Addressing demand-side challengessuch as a lack of market awareness,tenor mismatch,and disparities between private and social costsare also prerequisites for strong private sector participation.33Climate and De
332、velopment:An Agenda for Action Despite uncertainty around timing and costs,green hydrogen has a role to play and presents an opportunity for countries to tap into future global demand.The International Energy Agencys net zero emissions scenario projects that,in 2050,hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels
333、 could account for 10 percent of global final energy demand for electricity,transport,construction,and synthetic fuel production.Some CCDRs(Morocco,Egypt)illustrate the production and export opportunities this presents,while others(Trkiye,China)show the demand is present,especially within industrial and transport strategies.Some countries(Bangladesh)highlight the importance of education and skills