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1、WorldOilOutlook2045Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries2022OPEC is a permanent,intergovernmental organization,established in Baghdad,Iraq,on 1014 September 1960.The Organization comprises 13 Members:Algeria,Angola,Republic of the Congo,Equatorial Guinea,Gabon,the Islamic Republic of Ira
2、n,Iraq,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna,Austria.Digital access to the WOO:an interactive user experience 24/7DownloadOPEC WOO AppAccess theinteractive versionOPECs World Oil Outlook(WOO)is part of the Organizatio
3、ns commitment to market stability.The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry.It is also a channel to encourage dialogue,cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the
4、 industry.As part of OPECs ongoing efforts to improve user experience of the WOO and provide data transparency,two digital interfaces are available:the OPEC WOO App and the interactive version of the WOO.The OPEC WOO App provides increased access to the publications vital analysis and energy-related
5、 data.It is ideal for energy professionals,oil industry stakeholders,policymakers,market analysts,academics and the media.The Apps search engine enables users to easily find information,and its bookmarking function allows them to store and review their favourite articles.Its versatility also allows
6、users to compare graphs and tables interactively,thereby maximizing information extraction and empowering users to undertake their own analysis.The interactive version of the WOO also provides the possibility to download specific data and information,thereby enhancing user experience.Available for A
7、ndroid and iOS OPEC Secretariat,October 2022Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna,Austria www.opec.orgISBN 978-3-9504890-4-0The data,analysis and any other information(the“information”)contained in the World Oil Outlook(the“WOO”)is for informational purposes only and is neither intended as a substit
8、ute for advice from business,finance,investment consultant or other professional;nor is it meant to be a benchmark or input data to a benchmark of any kind.Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the World Oil Outlook,the OPEC Secretariat makes
9、 no warranties or representations as to its accuracy,relevance or comprehensiveness,and assumes no liability or responsibility for any inaccuracy,error or omission,or for any loss or damage arising in connection with or attributable to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on
10、the information in the World Oil Outlook.The views expressed in the World Oil Outlook are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of its governing bodies or Member Countries.The designation of geographical entities in the World Oil Outlook,and the use and presentation
11、of data and other materials,do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of OPEC and/or its Member Countries concerning the legal status of any country,territory or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the exploration,exploitation,refining,marketing and utilization of its pe
12、troleum or other energy resources.Full reproduction,copying or transmission of the World Oil Outlook is not permitted in any form or by any means by third parties without the OPEC Secretariats written permission,however,the information contained therein may be used and/or reproduced for educational
13、and other non-commercial purposes without the OPEC Secretariats prior written permission,provided that it is fully acknowledged as the copyright holder.The World Oil Outlook may contain references to material(s)from third parties,whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorizat
14、ion from the copyright owner(s).The OPEC Secretariat or its governing bodies shall not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of any third party material(s).All rights of the World Oil Outlook shall be reserved to the OPEC Secretariat,as applicable,including every exclusive economic right
15、,in full or per excerpts,with special reference but without limitation,to the right to publish it by press and/or by any communications medium whatsoever;translate,include in a data base,make changes,transform and process for any kind of use,including radio,television or cinema adaptations,as well a
16、s a sound-video recording,audio-visual screenplays and electronic processing of any kind and nature whatsoever.Download:All the data presented in this Outlook is available at www.opec.org.AcknowledgementsSecretary General,Chairman of the Editorial BoardHaitham Al GhaisDirector,Research Division,Edit
17、or-in-ChiefAyed S.Al-QahtaniHead,Energy Studies Department,EditorAbderrezak BenyoucefMain contributorsChapter 1:Key assumptionsMohammad AlKazimi,Joerg Spitzy,Jan Ban,Eleni Kaditi,Hans-Peter Messmer,Masudbek Narzibekov,Boris Kudashev,Daniel McKirdyChapter 2:Energy demandHaris Aliefendic,Jan Ban,Reem
18、AlNaeimi,Mohammed AttabaChapter 3:Oil demandJan Ban,Hans-Peter Messmer,Mohammed Attaba,Christian DiendorferChapter 4:Liquids supplyJulius Walker,Mohammad AlKazimi Chapter 5:Refining outlookHaris Aliefendic,Mohammed AttabaChapter 6:Oil movementsHaris AliefendicChapter 7:Energy policy,climate change a
19、nd sustainable developmentJulius Walker,Eleni Kaditi,Daniel McKirdy,Boris Kudashev,Irene Etiobhio,Mohammed Attaba,Christian Diendorfer Chapter 8:Energy scenariosJan Ban,Julius Walker,Eleni KaditiOther contributorsBehrooz Baikalizadeh,Mohammad Zarie Zare,Mhammed Mouraia,Mohamed Sarrab,Tona Ndamba,Yac
20、ine Sariahmed,Asmaa Yaseen,Ali Dehghan,Nadir Guerer,Aziz Yahyai,Pantelis Christodoulides,Douglas Linton,Hannes Eichner,Roland Kammerer,Viveca Hameder,Klaus Stoeger,Mohammad Sattar,Zairul Arifin,Mihni Mihnev,Justinas Pelenis,Mansoureh GhodsiEditorial TeamJames GriffinDesign&Production TeamCarola Baye
21、r,Andrea BirnbachEditorial SupportDaniel McKirdy,Sonja Soliman,Dorit AschauerOPECs Economic Commission Board(as of September 2022)Samir Madani,Ntika Mbiya Ricardo,Antimo Asumu Obama Asangono,Fernand Epigat,Afshin Javan,Mohammed Saadoon Mohsin,Abdullah Al Sabah,Abdulnasser Lamin Mohamed Gnedi,Mele Ky
22、ari,Yousef Al Salem,Salem Hareb Al Mehairi,Ronny Rafael Romero RodriguezThe OPEC Secretariat is grateful for the kind contribution from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum(GECF),featured in Chapter 2.ContentsFOREWORD 1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5INTRODUCTION 17CHAPTER 1 KEY ASSUMPTIONS 211.1 Population and dem
23、ographics 221.2 Economic growth 271.3 Energy policies 401.4 Technology and innovation 44CHAPTER 2 ENERGY DEMAND 532.1 Major trends in energy demand 542.2 Energy demand by major regions 602.3 Energy demand by fuel 652.4 Energy related CO2 emissions 842.5 Energy intensity and consumption per capita 86
24、CHAPTER 3 OIL DEMAND 973.1 Oil demand outlook by region 983.2 Oil demand outlook by sector 1183.3 Oil demand outlook by product 142CHAPTER 4 LIQUIDS SUPPLY 1474.1 Global liquids supply outlook 1484.2 Drivers of medium-term and long-term liquids supply 1494.3 Breakdown of liquids supply outlook by ma
25、in regions 1534.4 Breakdown of liquids supply by type 1654.5 Tight oil:US and other countries 1684.6 OPEC liquids supply 1724.7 Upstream investment requirements 173CHAPTER 5 REFINING OUTLOOK 1775.1 Existing refinery capacity 1785.2 Distillation capacity outlook 1845.3 Secondary capacity 2065.4 Inves
26、tment requirements 2185.5 Refining industry implications 220CHAPTER 6 OIL MOVEMENTS 2236.1 Logistics developments 2246.2 Crude oil and product movements 2286.3 Crude oil and condensate movements 2316.4 Product movements 245CHAPTER 7 ENERGY POLICY,CLIMATE CHANGE ANDSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2497.1 Clim
27、ate change and sustainable development 2507.2 Energy policies and low-emission energy-related strategies of major economies 263CHAPTER 8 ENERGY SCENARIOS 2818.1 Alternative energy scenarios 2838.2 Energy demand and the energy mix 2858.3 Oil demand 2918.4 Socio-economic implications and emissions 292
28、8.5 Conclusions 293Annex A 297AbbreviationsAnnex B 301OPEC World Energy:definitions of regionsAnnex C 305World Oil Refining Logistics and Demand:definitions of regionsAnnex D 309Major data sourcesList of tablesTable 1.1 Population by region 23Table 1.2 Working population(age 1564)by region 25Table 1
29、.3 Net migration by region 26Table 1.4 Medium-term annual real GDP growth rate 32Table 1.5 Long-term annual real GDP growth rate 37Table 2.1 World primary energy demand by fuel type,20212045 57Table 2.2 Total primary energy demand by region,20212045 59Table 2.3 OECD primary energy demand by fuel typ
30、e,20212045 61Table 2.4 Non-OECD primary energy demand by fuel type,20212045 62Table 2.5 China primary energy demand by fuel type,20212045 63Table 2.6 India primary energy demand by fuel type,20212045 64Table 2.7 Oil demand by region,20212045 66Table 2.8 Coal demand by region,20212045 70Table 2.9 Nat
31、ural gas demand by region,20212045 73Table 2.10 Nuclear demand by region,20212045 76Table 2.11 Hydro demand by region,20212045 79Table 2.12 Biomass demand by region,20212045 80Table 2.13 Other renewables demand by region,20212045 83Table 3.1 Medium-term oil demand in the Reference Case 99Table 3.2 L
32、ong-term oil demand by region 102Table 3.3 Sectoral oil demand,20212045 119Table 3.4 Number of passenger cars,20212045 124Table 3.5 Number of commercial vehicles,20212045 125Table 3.6 Oil demand in the road transportation sector by region,20212045 129Table 3.7 Oil demand in the aviation sector by re
33、gion,20212045 132Table 3.8 Oil demand in the petrochemical sector by region,20212045 134Table 3.9 Oil demand in the residential/commercial/agricultural sector by region,20212045 137Table 3.10 Oil demand in the marine bunkers sector by region,20212045 138Table 3.11 Oil demand in the other industry se
34、ctor by region,20212045 139Table 3.12 Oil demand in the rail and domestic waterways sector by region,20212045 140Table 3.13 Oil demand in the electricity generation sector by region,20212045 141Table 3.14 Global oil demand by product,20212045 143Table 4.1 Long-term global liquids supply outlook 148T
35、able 4.2 Medium-term global liquids supply outlook 150Table 4.3 US total liquids supply,20212045 155Table 4.4 Long-term non-OPEC liquids supply outlook by type 165Table 4.5 Long-term non-OPEC biofuels and other liquids supply outlook 166Table 5.1 Assessed available base capacity as of January 2022 1
36、81List of boxesBox 2.1 The role of natural gas in Africa 89Box 3.1 EU Fit for 55:Impact on oil demand 106Box 4.1 Non-crudes on the rise 166Box 7.1 Climate finance 257Table 5.2 Medium-term distillation capacity additions from existing projects by region 186Table 5.3 Refinery distillation capacity add
37、itions by period 188Table 5.4 Crude unit throughputs and utilization rates,20212045 201Table 5.5 Net refinery closures by region,recent and projected 204Table 5.6 Secondary capacity additions from existing projects,20222027 207Table 5.7 Global capacity requirements by process,20222045 210Table 5.8 G
38、lobal cumulative potential for incremental product output,20222027 217Table 7.1 Mitigation targets of major economies 256List of figuresFigure 1.1 World population growth,19972021 versus 20212045 23Figure 1.2 World population trends,19902045 24Figure 1.3 Urbanization rate for selected regions,200020
39、45 25Figure 1.4 Long-term GDP growth rates by components,20212045 35Figure 1.5 Size of major economies,20152045 39Figure 1.6 Distribution of the global economy,2021 and 2045 39Figure 1.7 Real GDP per capita in 2021 and 2045 40Figure 2.1 Primary energy demand by fuel type,19902021 56Figure 2.2 Growth
40、 in primary energy demand by fuel type,20212045 59Figure 2.3 Growth in primary energy demand by region,20212045 60Figure 2.4 Growth in energy demand by fuel type and region,20212045 65Figure 2.5 Oil demand by region,20212045 67Figure 2.6 Incremental oil demand by region,20212045 68Figure 2.7 Coal de
41、mand by region,20212045 70Figure 2.8 Natural gas demand by region,20212045 73Figure 2.9 Number of nuclear reactors by region,2021 75Figure 2.10 Nuclear energy demand by region,20212045 76Figure 2.11 Hydro demand by region,20212045 78Figure 2.12 Biomass demand by region,20212045 80Figure 2.13 Other r
42、enewables demand by region,20212045 82Figure 2.14 Annual change in energy related CO2 emissions,19502045 84Figure 2.15 Energy-related annual CO2 emissions by region,20212045 85Figure 2.16 Per capita CO2 emissions by region,2021 and 2045 86Figure 2.17 Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1900,19902045 86Fi
43、gure 2.18 Evolution and projections of energy intensity in major world regions,19902045 87Figure 2.19 Average annual rate of improvement in global and regional energy intensity,20212045 88Figure 2.20 Energy consumption per capita versus GDP at PPP per capita,20212045 89Figure 3.1 Annual incremental
44、oil demand by region,20212027 100Figure 3.2 Incremental oil demand by region,20212027 101Figure 3.3 Average annual oil demand increments by region,20212045 103Figure 3.4 Annual oil demand growth in the OECD,20212027 104Figure 3.5 OECD oil demand by sector,20212045 105Figure 3.6 OECD oil demand by pr
45、oduct,20212045 109Figure 3.7 Annual oil demand growth in non-OECD countries,20212027 110Figure 3.8 Non-OECD regional oil demand growth,20212027 111Figure 3.9 Non-OECD regional oil demand growth,20272045 112Figure 3.10 Oil demand in India by sector,2021 and 2045 113Figure 3.11 Oil demand in India by
46、product,20212045 114Figure 3.12 Oil demand in China by product,20212045 115Figure 3.13 Oil demand in China by sector,20212045 115Figure 3.14 Oil demand in Other Asia by sector,20212045 117Figure 3.15 Oil demand in the Middle East by sector,20212045 118Figure 3.16 Oil demand growth by sector,20212045
47、 119Figure 3.17 Sectoral oil demand in the OECD region,2021 and 2045 121Figure 3.18 Sectoral oil demand in non-OECD countries,2021 and 2045 122Figure 3.19 Global fleet composition,20212045 127Figure 3.20 Demand in road transportation in OECD countries,2021 and 2045 130Figure 3.21 Demand in road tran
48、sportation in non-OECD countries,2021 and 2045 130Figure 3.22 Oil demand in the aviation sector,20192027 131Figure 3.23 Regional demand in the petrochemical sector by product,20212045 135Figure 3.24 Demand growth by product category between 2021 and 2045 143Figure 3.25 Growth in global oil demand by
49、 product 144Figure 4.1 Composition of global oil liquids supply growth,20212045 149Figure 4.2 Select contributors to non-OPEC total liquids change,20212027 150Figure 4.3 Global upstream capital expenditure(oil only)151Figure 4.4 US producer cost indices(January 2010=100)152Figure 4.5 Non-OPEC liquid
50、s supply outlook by region 153Figure 4.6 US total liquids supply outlook 154Figure 4.7 Canada total liquids supply outlook 156Figure 4.8 Mexico total liquids supply outlook 157Figure 4.9 Norway total liquids supply outlook 158Figure 4.10 UK total liquids supply outlook 159Figure 4.11 Brazil total li
51、quids supply outlook 160Figure 4.12 Guyana total liquids supply outlook 161Figure 4.13 Latin America total liquids supply outlook 161Figure 4.14 Africa total liquids supply outlook 162Figure 4.15 China total liquids supply outlook 163Figure 4.16 Russia total liquids supply outlook 164Figure 4.17 Kaz
52、akhstan total liquids supply outlook 164Figure 4.18 Global tight oil supply outlook 169Figure 4.19 US oil rig count and crude oil production 170Figure 4.20 Evolution of US tight oil wellhead breakeven prices by basin 171Figure 4.21 US tight oil supply outlook 172Figure 4.22 OPEC total liquids supply
53、 173Figure 4.23 Cumulative oil-related investment requirements by sector,20222045 173Figure 4.24 Annual upstream investment requirements for capacity additions,20222045 174Figure 5.1 Gasoline and gasoil spreads versus Dated Brent in Rotterdam 180Figure 5.2 Secondary capacity relative to distillation
54、 capacity,January 2022 183Figure 5.3 Annual distillation capacity additions and total projects investment 185Figure 5.4 Medium-term distillation capacity additions from existing projects 186Figure 5.5 Distillation capacity additions and oil demand growth,20222045 189Figure 5.6 Crude distillation cap
55、acity additions,20222045 190Figure 5.7 Additional global cumulative refinery crude runs,potential and required 192Figure 5.8 Additional cumulative crude runs in US&Canada,potential and required 193Figure 5.9 Additional cumulative crude runs in Europe,potential and required 194Figure 5.10 Additional
56、cumulative crude runs in China,potential and required 195Figure 5.11 Additional cumulative crude runs in Asia-Pacific(excl.China),potential and required 195Figure 5.12 Additional cumulative crude runs in the Middle East,potential and required 196Figure 5.13 Additional cumulative crude runs in the Ru
57、ssia&Caspian,potential and required 196Figure 5.14 Additional cumulative crude runs in Africa,potential and required 197Figure 5.15 Additional cumulative crude runs in Latin America,potential and required 198Figure 5.16 Net cumulative regional refining potential surplus/deficits versus requirements
58、198Figure 5.17 Historical and projected global refinery utilization,20192027 199Figure 5.18 Global oil demand,refining capacity and crude runs,19802027 200Figure 5.19 Refinery closures by region,recent and projected 204Figure 5.20 Conversion projects by region,20222027 207Figure 5.21 Secondary capac
59、ity requirements by process type,20222045 210Figure 5.22 Conversion capacity requirements by region,20222045 213Figure 5.23 Desulphurization capacity requirements by region,20222045 214Figure 5.24 Desulphurization capacity requirements by product and region,20222045 214Figure 5.25 Octane capacity re
60、quirements by process and region,20222045 216Figure 5.26 Expected surplus/deficit of incremental product output from existing refining projects,20222027 218Figure 5.27 Refinery investments by region,20222045 219Figure 6.1 Interregional crude oil and products exports,20212045 230Figure 6.2 Change in
61、crude and condensate supply between 2021 and 2045 231Figure 6.3 Dated Brent and Urals CIF Rotterdam 233Figure 6.4 Global crude and condensate exports by origin,20212045 234Figure 6.5 Share of crude and condensate exports,20212045 235Figure 6.6 Crude and condensate exports from the Middle East by maj
62、or destination,20212045 236Figure 6.7 Crude and condensate exports from Latin America by major destination,20212045 237Figure 6.8 Crude and condensate exports from Russia&Caspian by major destination,20212045 238Figure 6.9 Crude and condensate exports from Africa by major destination,20212045 239Fig
63、ure 6.10 Crude and condensate exports from US&Canada by major destination,20212045 240Figure 6.11 Crude and condensate imports to the US&Canada by origin,20212045 241Figure 6.12 Crude and condensate imports to Europe by origin,20212045 243Figure 6.13 Crude and condensate imports to Asia-Pacific by o
64、rigin,20212045 244Figure 6.14 Regional net crude and condensate imports,2021,2025,2035 245 and 2045Figure 6.15 Regional net product imports,2025,2035 and 2045 246Figure 7.1 Global population without access to electricity 260Figure 7.2 Global electrified and general populations in urban versus rural
65、areas,20182020 261Figure 7.3 Relative share of population without access to clean cooking 261Figure 7.4 Access to clean cooking 262Figure 8.1 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,20202045 285Figure 8.2 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and
66、in alternative scenarios,2030 286Figure 8.3 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,2045 286Figure 8.4 Global primary energy demand by fuel in alternative scenarios,20212045 287Figure 8.5 Global primary energy demand by sector in the Reference Case and Advance
67、d Technology Scenario,2030 and 2045 288Figure 8.6 Electricity generation by fuel in the Reference Case and Advanced Technology Scenario,2030 and 2045 289Figure 8.7 Change in primary energy demand between Laissez-Faire Scenario and the Reference Case in 2045 290Figure 8.8 Global energy system in the
68、Reference Case and alternative scenarios,20202045 290Figure 8.9 Global oil demand in the Reference Case and alternative scenarios,20202045 291Figure 8.10 OECD and non-OECD oil demand by scenario,20212045 292FOREWORD2World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesForewordFOREW
69、ORD1World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesFThe world of energy has witnessed a significant shift in focus since the publication of last years World Oil Outlook(WOO)in October 2021.Back then,policymakers were gearing up for COP26 in Glasgow,Scotland.It was a time when
70、 the narrative around the energy transition appeared to be focused on the question:are you for,or against fossil fuels?To OPEC,this question offered a false dichotomy.It limited what options were available,placed some energy sources on the sidelines and looked to be focused on a single one size fits
71、 all strategy.At the COP,while recognizing the urgent need to reduce emissions,we stated that the prevailing view that the energy transition is a linear trajectory from oil and other fossil fuels to renewables was misleading and potentially dangerous to a world that will con-tinue to be thirsty for
72、all energy sources.The importance of utilizing all energy sources has been a central theme of all OPECs WOOs,including this years 16th edition.It is crucial we appreciate just what each energy source can provide,as we look to answer the questions related to energy affordability,energy security,and t
73、he need to reduce emissions.Over the past year,it is evident that we have witnessed more of these questions being asked,on the back of challenges related to the recovery from COVID-19,geopolitical tensions,the lack of investments and the continuing scourge of energy poverty.This has been a positive
74、development.Maintaining this renewed focus will be vital in the years and decades ahead.To place expected future energy demand in some context,the WOO sees the need to annually add on average 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the period to 2045.This requires huge investments.Moreover,fo
75、r the oil industry alone we also need to add 5 million barrels of oil a day(mb/d)every year to just maintain current production at around 100 mb/d,given an aver-age annual industry decline rate of around 5%.The overall investment number for the oil sector is$12.1 trillion out to 2045.However,chronic
76、 underinvestment into the global oil industry in recent years,due to industry downturns,the COVID-19 pandemic,as well as policies centered on ending financing in fossil fuel projects,is a major cause of concern.OPEC Member Countries remain committed to investments to ensure oil sup-ply meets demand
77、and to further decarbonize the industry.They are also making significant investments in other energies,such as renewables,nuclear,gas and hydrogen.We believe that an all-options,all-solutions and all-technologies must be utilized.OPEC and its partners in the Declaration of Cooperation(DoC)are fully
78、committed to helping ensure the oil industry has a sustainable and stable environment that enables investments to be made.This can be viewed in its actions over the past year in terms of reinstating production adjustments,and I have no doubt the multilateral approach of the DoC will continue to be b
79、eneficial in the years ahead.FOREWORD2World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesHaitham Al GhaisSecretary GeneralHowever,no one entity can act alone.The investment challenge requires all industry stakeholders to work together to ensure a long-term investment-friendly cli
80、mate,with sufficient finance available.One that is sustainable and works for both producers and consumers,and developed and developing countries.I would like to put on record my thanks to the role of my predecessor,the late Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo,in evolving the publication during his time at the
81、helm.I know we can further build on what has been established,particularly with the excellent team we have at the Secretariat.I would like to also thank each and every staff member that has been involved in putting together this years WOO.It is a great achievement and we should all be proud of their
82、 dedication and commitment.For the readers,I hope this provides you with a better understanding of OPEC and the possible energy futures we all may face.We welcome your feedback.FOREWORD3World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesFEXECUTIVE SUMMARY4World Oil Outlook 2022Or
83、ganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesExecutive SummaryEXECUTIVE SUMMARY5World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesES202352035204520212045OECD2.01.61.51.7Non-OECD4.24.03.43.8World3.23.02.73.0Annual real GDP growth rates%p.a.Distribution of the global
84、economy,2021 and 2045Non-OECD countries to boost global population to 9.5 billion people by 2045The global population is set to increase by 1.6 billion between 2021 and 2045,from 7.9 bil-lion to 9.5 billion.Population growth in the non-OECD region accounts for over 96%of the expected total increase,
85、with the OECD accounting for under 4%.The global working-age population(aged between 15 and 64)is anticipated to expand by 870 million throughout the projection period.Overall,the relative share of the global working age population is set to fall slightly,from 65%in 2021 to 63%in 2045.Urbanization i
86、s forecast to expand further in the coming decades,with 66%of the worlds population projected to live in cities by 2045.Global GDP is set to increase by 3%p.a.on average over the period 20212045 The medium-term economic growth dynamic will be influenced by the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic,the in
87、flationary trend in connection with financial tightening,and the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Towards the end of the medium-term period,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)growth will settle at 3.1%.Within the OECD,eco-nomic growth is forecast to average 1.7%per annum(p.a.)for the period 20212
88、045.Global growth through to 2045,estimated at 3%p.a.on average,will be largely driven by non-OECD countries.These countries are expected to expand by 3.8%p.a.,primarily through improving labour productivity and a growing working age population.The global economy in 2045 will be double the size it w
89、as in 2021Based on 2017 purchasing power parity(PPP),global GDP is projected to rise from around$133 trillion in 2021 to almost$270 trillion in 2045.China and India alone will account for 37%of global GDP in 2045,whereas the OECD will account for slightly less at 34%.OECD Americas is forecast to rem
90、ain the region with the highest GDP per capita,followed by OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific.The regional grouping of Middle East&Africa(excluding OPEC Member Countries)will still have the lowest GDP per capita and it is expected to be the only region where the average income is less than$10,000(201
91、7 PPP)in 2045.OECD AmericasOECD EuropeOECD Asia-PacificChinaOther AsiaIndiaOPECRest of the WorldOECDNon-OECD31Source:OPEC.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY6World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesWorld primary energy demand by fuel type,202
92、12045Levelsmboe/dGrowthmboe/dGrowth%p.a.Fuel share%2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20212045 20245Oil88.396.198.9100.1100.5100.612.30.530.928.7Coal74.774.070.766.462.158.216.51.026.116.6Gas66.469.974.979.583.085.318.91.023.224.3Nuclear15.216.317.819.621.723.38.11.85.36.6Hydro 7.58.08.79.410.
93、110.42.91.42.63.0Biomass26.227.930.032.033.734.98.61.29.29.9Other renewables7.411.217.824.932.538.330.97.12.610.9Total285.7 303.4 318.9331.9 343.6 351.065.30.9100.0100.0In times of high uncertainty,policy focus shifts to energy securityThe cover decision of COP26 the Glasgow Climate Pact highlighted
94、 the need to enhance action across the world on climate change mitigation,adaptation,finance and increasing cooperation.Parties to the Paris Agreement were also called to update 2030 emission reduction targets before COP27.Yet,in the current geopolitical context,besides a pressing need to increase c
95、limate ambitions,countries are increasingly focused on energy secu-rity issues.There is now more attention on an energy sustainability trilemma,related to affordability,energy security and reducing emissions,evidenced in many countries pub-licly recognizing the need for inclusive and resilient appro
96、aches,including through more investments in oil and gas projects going forward.Technology will continue to play a vital role in shaping the future energy mix The WOO assumes the continuous evolution of technology,which will continue to play an important role in shaping the future energy mix.Despite
97、fast progress in the penetration of electric vehicles(EVs),internal combustion engines(ICEs)are expected to remain the dominant technology for both passenger and commercial road transport segments,with continuously improving fuel efficiency.In a similar vein,conventional aircraft engines will remain
98、 the leading technology in the aviation sector.The marine transportation industry has leaned towards the use of liquefied natural gas(LNG),complementing the sectors 2020 cap on the sulphur content of fuel and an industry-wide ambition for emis-sions reduction of 50%by 2050.Gas has steeply increased
99、its share in power genera-tion in recent decades,while the penetration of renewables in power generation,with an emphasis on wind and solar,will rise throughout the forecast period,increasingly dis-placing coal.Hydrogen is widely recognized as a significant energy carrier for the future.Primary ener
100、gy demand growth driven mostly by non-OECDGlobal primary energy demand is expected to increase from 286 million barrels of oil equiva-lent a day(mboe/d)in 2021 to 351 mboe/d in 2045,a rise of 23%.The drivers of global energy demand are exclusively non-OECD countries,increasing by 69 mboe/d in the ou
101、tlook period.India alone accounts for 28%of this expansion.With strong policy support and declin-ing long-term costs,other renewables(mostly wind and solar)are the fastest and largest growing category in the energy mix,adding 31 mboe/d in the outlook period.Natural gas is anticipated to increase by
102、19 mboe/d,followed by oil with just over 12 mboe/d.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY7World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesESEnergy consumption per capita versus GDP at PPP per capita,20212045Oil is expected to remain the number one fuel in the global primary energy mix
103、Demand for oil as a primary fuel is anticipated to increase from 88 mboe/d in 2021 to 101 mboe/d in 2045,with its share in the energy mix dropping from 31%to just below 29%.Despite decelerating oil demand growth,oil is set to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire foreca
104、st period.The combined mar-ket share of oil and gas in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50%to 2045.Energy poverty remains an issue throughout the forecast period,with a wide gap between developed and developing countries As of 2020,about 733 million people remained without a
105、ccess to electricity,and approxi-mately 80%of these people are located in Africa.Moreover,about 2.4 billion people still lacked access to clean cooking solutions in 2020,accounting for one-third of the worlds population.This is progress on the three billion number in 2010,with improvements in Asian
106、economies where there was decline from around 2.1 billion in 2010 to 1.3 billion in 2020.However,this masks the deterioration in Sub-Saharan Africa where more than 920 million people did not have access to clean cooking fuels,compared to around 750 million in 2010.Despite rising energy demand growth
107、 during the forecast period,per capita consumption in non-OECD countries will remain far below that in OECD countries in 2045.This is especially true for regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and India.0070055GDP per capita($1,000 PPP)Energy consumption per capita(boe)OECDIndiaChi
108、naOPECEurasiaOther DCsWorld20212045Medium-term oil demand grows steadily,reaching 107 mb/d by 2027 Global oil demand is projected to reach almost 107 million barrels a day(mb/d)in 2027,representing a robust increase of 10 mb/d compared to 2021.Most of this increase will materialize in the non-OECD r
109、egion,which accounts for 8.6 mb/d of the medium-term growth.Of this,however,more than 5 mb/d will be realized in the period to 2024.OECD oil demand is expected to see an increase of 1.4 mb/d by 2027,with the 2.4 mb/d expansion in the period to 2024,offset by a decline of 1 mb/d during the rest of th
110、e medium-term.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY8World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries2023520402045Growth 20212045OECD44.847.044.541.137.534.110.7Non-OECD52.258.563.868.472.375.723.6World96.9 105.5 108.3 109.5 109.8 109.8 12.9 Oil demand in the Reference Case,
111、20212045 mb/dIn the long-term,global oil demand increases by 13 mb/d,rising to 110 mb/dOECD oil demand is on a declining trajectory after 2024,falling to 34 mb/d by the end of the forecast period.This represents an overall demand decline of almost 11 mb/d between 2021 and 2045.In contrast,long-term
112、non-OECD demand is expected to increase by 24 mb/d,driven by an expanding middle class,high population growth and stronger economic growth potential.As a result,global oil demand is projected to increase by 12.9 mb/d,rising to 109.8 mb/d in 2045.Overall growth slows over the projection period,with v
113、irtually no increase after 2035,hinting to a relatively long period of plateauing oil demand at the global level.This will be driven by energy policies and technology developments that both play an increasing role in diversifying the future energy mix.Long-term demand growth to increasingly come fro
114、m India,Africa and Other AsiaNon-OECD demand prospects are marked by strong demand growth.In the initial years of the forecast period,this growth will be driven by China.In the later period,India will take the leading role with demand growth in China slowing significantly and even turn-ing to a marg
115、inal decline over the last five years of the forecast period.Besides India,fairly robust growth during this period is also projected for Africa and Other Asia where economic progress,urbanization,industrialization and vehicle fleet expansion will be fastest among all regions.This will result in resp
116、ective demand increases of around 1.4 mb/d,0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d,for India,Africa and Other Asia,during the 20402045 period.Even by 2045,oil demand will still grow at a rate of more than 2%p.a.in India and Africa and 1%p.a.in Other Asia.Aviation,road transportation and petrochemical sectors will be
117、the main con-tributors to future incremental oil demandAviation,road transportation and petrochemical sectors will each see oil demand grow by around 4 mb/d between 2021 and 2045.The largest demand increase,estimated at 4.1 mb/d between 2021 and 2045,comes from the aviation sector.Considering 2021 a
118、s a basis for comparison,however,more than 1 mb/d of this expansion is needed to just reach pre-pandemic levels,which will likely not be achieved before 2024.After an initial few years of growth,oil demand in the road transportation sector is expected to stay in a very narrow range of just below 47
119、mb/d as developments in the passenger car segment offset impacts on the commercial vehicles segment.The total vehicle fleet is anticipated to reach 2.5 billion by 2045,an increase of almost 1 billion from 2021 levels.The EV fleet approaches 540 million vehicles by 2045,representing more than 22%of t
120、he global fleet.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY9World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesES2023520402045Growth 20212045Light products44.849.250.750.951.351.36.4Middle distillates33.937.638.639.439.740.26.3Heavy products18.218.619.119.218.818.40.2World96.9 105.5
121、 108.3 109.5 109.8 109.8 12.9 Global oil demand by product,20212045 mb/dOil demand growth by sector,2021204596.9109.8Road 3.8Aviation 4.1Other 0.8Petrochemicals 3.7Other industry 0.5Electricity gen.0.9 Resid./Comm./Agr.0.890955Demandin 2021Growth intransportationGrowth inindustryGrowth in
122、other sectorsDemandin 2045mb/dThe overall demand increase in the petrochemical sector is forecast to be 3.7 mb/d.The overwhelming majority of this growth is set to come from Asian countries and the Middle East.Minor growth is also projected for Latin America,Africa and Russia.Meanwhile,OECD oil use
123、for petrochemicals at the end of the forecast period will be lower than in 2021,despite some temporary growth during the current decade.Future incremental demand almost equally split between light products and middle distillatesMirroring projected developments at the sectoral level,incremental deman
124、d is set to be almost equally split between light products and middle distillates,with virtually no growth projected for the heavy end of the refined barrel.Major demand growth over the forecast period is expected for jet/kerosene(+3.8 mb/d),followed by ethane/liquefied petroleum gas(+2.6 mb/d),dies
125、el/gasoil(+2.4 mb/d),naphtha(+2 mb/d)and gasoline(+1.9 mb/d).Non-OPEC liquids supply to show healthy medium-term growth Non-OPEC liquids supply will continue its post-pandemic rebound.It is projected to grow from 63.6 mb/d in 2021 to 71.4 mb/d in 2027,under the assumption of a strong Source:OPEC.Sou
126、rce:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY10World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesNote:The sum of the countries/regions may not add up to the global supply total due to rounding and stock change assumptions.Source:OPEC.Long-term global liquids supply outlook mb/d202352040
127、2045Change20212045Americas25.229.029.227.926.525.20.0 of which US17.821.321.319.918.517.20.5Europe3.84.14.24.14.14.10.3Asia-Pacific0.50.50.60.50.50.40.1OECD29.433.634.032.531.029.70.3China4.34.64.54.44.34.20.2India0.80.80.80.80.80.80.0Other Asia2.42.32.22.12.01.80.6Latin America6.07.38.89.08.98.72.8
128、Middle East3.23.53.83.83.83.80.5Africa1.31.51.81.71.61.60.2Russia10.810.210.410.510.510.40.4Other Eurasia2.93.23.33.33.33.20.3Other Europe0.10.10.10.10.10.10.0Non-OECD31.933.435.635.835.334.62.8Non-OPEC production61.367.069.668.366.364.33.0Processing gains2.32.62.82.93.03.20.9Non-OPEC liquids63.669.
129、672.471.269.367.53.9OPEC liquids31.636.136.138.340.442.410.7World95.2105.7108.4109.5109.8109.814.6demand recovery and on the back of supportive fundamentals.The United States(US)will remain the leading source of medium-term non-OPEC liquids supply growth,pro-viding 3.9 mb/d,or 50%of incremental outp
130、ut.Other major medium-term sources of non-OPEC supply growth are Brazil(+1.2 mb/d),Guyana(+0.8 mb/d),Canada(+0.5 mb/d)and Norway(+0.4 mb/d).By contrast,geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,are set to result in Russian liquids supply declining by 0.7 mb/d in the medium-term.In
131、 the long-term,total non-OPEC liquids supply declines again from the early 2030s,to average 67.5 mb/d in 2045,albeit still up by 3.9 mb/d from 2021.Resource constraints see US tight oil peak at just over 16 mb/d around 2030.Thereafter,supply growth continues in Guyana,Canada,Kazakhstan,Brazil and Qa
132、tar,but is insufficient to offset non-OPEC declines elsewhere.Non-crude liquids share of global supply to increaseNon-crude liquids supply growth offsets crude oils longer-term decline.Besides natural gas liquids(NGLs),biofuels and other liquids,including Canadian oil sands,and progres-sively,synthe
133、tic aviation fuel(SAF),are also important sources of new barrels.These are increasingly supported by energy policies,mandates and technology advances.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY11World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesESComposition of long-term global oil liquids supply growth8
134、08590955Supplyin 2021Non-OPECliquids growthOPEC liquids growthSupplyin 2045mb/dOPEC liquids to grow to 42.4 mb/d by 2045,a 39%market shareOPEC liquids are projected to expand from 31.6 mb/d in 2021 to around 36 mb/d in 2022 and hold steady around this level throughout the medium-term.Afte
135、r non-OPEC supply peaks around 2030,OPEC liquids are set to increase again,rising to 42.4 mb/d by 2045.Thus,OPECs share of global liquids supply is projected to increase from 33%in 2021 to 39%in 2045.Uncertainty to the supply outlook remains highRisks to the economic outlook,high inflation,energy po
136、licy goals confronted with energy security challenges,and questions regarding a perceived shortfall in upstream invest-ment,coupled with persisting and new geopolitical uncertainties,means that significant risks regarding the longer-term liquids supply outlook remain.Global challenge to meet oil-rel
137、ated investment requirements of$12.1 trillion by 2045Cumulative oil-related investment requirements are projected at$12.1 trillion over the entire 20222045 period(in 2022 US dollars).This is slightly higher than assessed in the World Oil Outlook(WOO)2021,as upward-revised demand projections and assu
138、med cost inflation in the short-and medium-term more than offset the forecast period being one year shorter.Upstream needs make up$9.5 trillion,while downstream and midstream requirements are$1.6 and$1 trillion,respectively.Robust medium-term refinery capacity expansion,partly offset by expected clo
139、sures During the medium-term,around 7.3 mb/d of refining capacity additions are expected,most of which will be added in the Asia-Pacific,the Middle East and Africa.Refining capacity additions in other regions are minor and mostly limited to existing refinery expansions.The Asia-Pacific is set to add
140、 around 3.6 mb/d of refining capacity in the medium-term,which is almost half of the total additions to 2027.The Middle East and Africa are set to expand their refining capacity by 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d,respectively.At the same time,around 2.6 mb/d of refining capacity is projected to be closed,most
141、ly in developed countries.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY12World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesDistillation capacity additions from existing projects,20222027US&CanadaLatinAmericaAfricaEuropeRussia&CaspianMiddleEastChinaOtherAsia-Pacific00.51.01.52.02.5mb/d2027202620
142、25202420232022Strong demand growth leads to tightening medium-term downstream sector Projected downstream market balances point to a tightening downstream market in the short-and medium-term,relative to 2021.The expected deficit of potential refining capacity relative to required refining capacity i
143、s estimated to peak at around 2.7 mb/d in 2023 and 2024.Due to a demand growth slowdown and continuous capacity additions,the deficit is set to drop to around 1.4 mb/d in 2027.Additional global cumulative refinery crude runs,potential*and required*Potential:based on expected distillation capacity ex
144、pansion;assuming no closures.*Required:based on projected demand increases assuming no change in refined products trade pattern.Source:OPEC.02220232024202520262027mb/dPotential refining capacity based on project listRequired refining capacitySource:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY13World Oil Outloo
145、k 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesESSignificant long-term primary and secondary refining capacity requirementsIn the long-term,global refining additions are projected at 15.5 mb/d.Expected additions are front-loaded,with a significant slowdown in the rate of additions towards th
146、e end of the assessment period,in line with oil demand deceleration.Almost 90%of additions are located in the Asia-Pacific,the Middle East and Africa.Long-term sec-ondary capacity additions are estimated at around 15.8 mb/d for desulphurization capacities,8 mb/d for conversion capacities and 5.7 mb/
147、d for octane units.High degree of uncertainty related to European imports and Russian exports of crude and condensateFollowing the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,several regions including the European Union(EU),the United Kingdom(UK),the US and Canada have imposed a ban on oil and product i
148、mports from Russia.This outlook assumes that Europe will continue to import some Russian crude in the medium-to long-term.However,this outlook recognizes the potential lasting consequences of the oil embargo,mean-ing that flows from Russia to the EU are likely to be significantly lower compared to 2
149、021.Medium-term global crude and condensate trade to rise significantly,followed by a gradual increase thereafterTotal crude and condensate trade is expected to increase from 33.9 mb/d in 2021 to almost 40.5 mb/d by 2045.The Middle East remains by far the most important crude and condensate exporter
150、 throughout the period.In line with rising demand for OPEC liquids,it is projected to increase its exports from 15.7 mb/d in 2021 to 22.7 mb/d in 2045,or more than 56%of total trade movements.Latin American exports are set to grow strongly,reaching 5.7 mb/d in 2045,up from 3.4 mb/d in 2021.In line w
151、ith supply trends,US&Canada exports are set to peak in 2025 at 4.7 mb/d,followed by a gradual decline to 2.3 mb/d in 2045.Global crude and condensate exports by origin*,20212045Asia-PacificMiddle EastRussia&CaspianEuropeAfricaLatin AmericaUS&Canada05540452023520402045mb/d*Only
152、trade between major regions is considered,intratrade is excluded.Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY14World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesCrude and condensate flows to Asia-Pacific increase strongly,based on robust demand growth and declining local supplyTotal imports in
153、crease from 22.5 mb/d in 2021 to above 30 mb/d in 2045.The Middle East remains the most significant supplier and increases its share in total Asia-Pacific imports from around 60%in 2021 to 65%in 2045.Other regions are also projected to increase shipments to Asia-Pacific in the medium-and/or long-ter
154、m,including Latin America,Russia&Caspian and the US&Canada.Crude and condensate imports to Asia-Pacific by origin,20212045Middle EastRussia&CaspianUS&CanadaEuropeAfricaLatin America0552023520402045mb/dScenarios assess alternative energy pathwaysThe global economy and energy sys
155、tem are at a critical juncture,characterized by great uncertainty.Nations and Parties to the UNFCCC are currently called on to collectively achieve ambitious emission reductions by accelerating action on an unprecedented scale in all key sectors,including energy,transport,buildings,and industry.At t
156、he same time,there are pressing needs to alleviate energy poverty and improve energy access and living conditions for people in many developing countries.To model these chal-lenges,alternative scenarios were developed.These scenarios indicate that alternatives to the mainstream mitigation pathways f
157、ocusing on renewables exist.Crucially,different pathways have varying socio-economic implications for different economies,with some routes likely unfairly impacting energy-exporting developing countries.Partnerships and cooperation are needed to invest in technology and innovation that could enable
158、an inclusive,fair and just transitionThe critical role of oil and gas in meeting future energy demand and achieving energy poverty eradication should be taken into consideration when developing investment plans and energy portfolios that lead to a low-emissions future.Any adverse impacts for the eco
159、nomies and societies of energy-exporting developing countries should be addressed in the context of equity and sustainable development.In this respect,amid the current disruptions related to the pandemic and geopolitics,the world is losing momentum towards the attainment of Sustainable Development G
160、oal Source:OPEC.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY15World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesES(SDG)7 targets,especially on energy poverty eradication.International cooperation and finance are fundamental instruments for achieving progress on the SDGs,including on universal energy acces
161、s,and ensuring a just and inclusive energy transition.INTRODUCTION16World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesIntroduction INTRODUCTION17World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesINTINTDespite recurring waves of COVID-19 infections and some r
162、egional or localized lockdowns,the global economy surged in 2021,with GDP expanding by 5.8%,and oil demand increasing by 5.7 mb/d.Liquids supply continued to recover in lockstep with demand,heavily supported by the steady production adjustment unwinding adhered to by participants in the Declaration
163、of Cooperation(DoC).The wise stewardship by the DoC continued to enhance stability in global oil markets during turbulent times.The year 2021 closed out with Conference of Parties(COP26)in Glasgow,the UK,domi-nating headlines.Expectations ran very high before the event,with numerous countries commit
164、ting to more ambitious nationally determined contributions(NDCs),or even set-ting net-zero emissions targets in the coming decades.Largely,this reflects the fact that the global energy transition remained high on the agenda,not least due to renewed commitment to the cause by the current US Administr
165、ation,which had re-joined the Paris Agreement on its first day in office.Only a short time later,however,talk of a potential winter energy crisis in Europe saw energy security concerns rise to the top of the global agenda for many,and just a few months later,the conflict in Eastern Europe shifted th
166、e focus even further in this direc-tion.Policymakers have been delivered a stark reminder of some of the conflicts related to energy affordability,energy security,and the need to reduce emissions.Moreover,subsequent sanctions on Russia and the decision by many European coun-tries to reduce,or even e
167、liminate,energy imports from Russia have had further major implications for energy markets,re-directing energy flows and at least temporarily leading to higher energy prices.The resulting mix of sanctions,inflation and higher energy prices,in turn,has had significant consequences for economic prospe
168、cts,with downward revisions to the global economic growth outlook by all major institutions.The momentum towards energy transition will not be reversed,with trends such as the push for renewable energy and the continued electrification of road transport fast pro-gressing in several markets,supported
169、 by both policy and consumer choices.Technology advances will continue to enable both improved energy efficiency across all sectors of consumption and fuel substitution towards cleaner energy sources.Moreover,energy-saving measures implemented in response to high end-user prices,as well as political
170、 calls for solidarity and savings,may in some cases become entrenched.The Reference Case of this years outlook assumes a combination of a steady economic recovery,coupled with a gradual normalization and stabilization of oil markets in the short-and medium-term,to everybodys benefit,both producers a
171、nd consumers.In the long-term,the outlook assumes that oil demand growth will likely slow in the 2030s,hinting at a relatively long period of plateauing demand at the global level.This will be a phase in which non-OECD growth will offset declining OECD demand.This will be driven by energy policies a
172、nd technology development that both play an increasing role in diversifying the future energy mix.Still,global oil demand will increase by close to 13 mb/d in the period 20212045,rising to nearly 110 mb/d in the long-term.On the supply side,the expected peak in US tight oil sometime around 2030,and
173、as a result,aggregate non-OPEC liquids supply,will present a challenge to OPEC Member Countries,which will be called on to responsibly fill the gap this creates.This calls for INTRODUCTION18World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesan environment in which continued long-
174、term investment in the upstream is recognized as vital and necessary,and not needlessly demonized as has been witnessed in recent years.On the refining side,strong medium-term demand growth is expected to lead to tighten-ing downstream markets and significant primary and secondary refining capacity
175、addi-tions will be required in the long-term.In the period to 2045,global crude distillation capacity additions are estimated at 15.5 mb/d.Needless to say,this will have signifi-cant implications on re-directing future crude and refined products flow between major regions.Lastly,to sufficiently refl
176、ect the widening range of uncertainties about the worlds future energy mix,two scenarios are also presented in the last chapter of the Outlook.These indicate that alternatives to the mainstream mitigation pathways focusing on renewa-bles exist.Crucially,different pathways have varying socio-economic
177、 implications for different economies,with some routes likely unfairly impacting energy-exporting devel-oping countries.Moreover,the world should not lose focus on achieving the targets enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),including the eradication of energy poverty,and energy access
178、 to all.Therefore,it is necessary to promote partnerships and cooperative initiatives to invest in technology and innovation that could enable inclusive,fair and just solutions to the worlds pressing climate challenges,all in the context of equity and sustainable development.INTRODUCTION19World Oil
179、Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesINTCHAPTER ONE20World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesKey assumptionsKEY ASSUMPTIONS21World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Key takeaways Global population is anticipated t
180、o increase by around 1.6 billion,from 7.9 billion in 2021 to 9.5 billion by 2045.Non-OECD population growth is much higher than the OECD,driven by the Middle East&Africa,with Other Asia,OPEC and India following.The working-age population(1564)is projected to rise globally by 869 million over the pro
181、jection period.The relative share of the global working-age popula-tion is anticipated to drop from 65%in 2021 to 63%in 2045.The global urbanization rate is forecast to rise from 56%in 2021 to 66%by 2045.Global GDP is projected to grow by 3%p.a.on average between 2021 and 2045.India is expected to r
182、emain the fastest-growing major developing country,with average growth of 6.1%p.a.over the forecast period.Based on 2017 PPP,global GDP is projected to rise from$133 trillion in 2021 to$270 trillion in 2045.China and India alone are forecast to account for more than a third of global GDP in 2045,sli
183、ghtly higher than the OECD regions share.The UNFCCC Parties adopted a cover decision at COP26 in Glasgow in November 2021 the Glasgow Climate Pact and a set of decisions on the Paris Agreement rulebook.These outcomes highlight the need to enhance action across the world on climate change mitigation,
184、adaptation,finance and increasing cooperation.In addition to the pressing need to increase climate ambition,both developed and developing countries are currently striving to ensure energy security and find a resilient and sustainable way forward.In this context,the special needs and national circums
185、tances of developing countries should be considered;ensuring energy is accessible and affordable for all.Both current and future technologies will play a significant role in shaping the future energy landscape.The development,and implementation,of multi-faceted technologies contributes to helping se
186、t the scene for the Reference Case.Hydrogen is considered in the context of the energy transition as a solution to some of the challenges,playing the role of an energy carrier.CHAPTER ONE22World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesA variety of key assumptions are made to
187、 structure this years WOO.These include global population and demographic projections and trends;potential economic growth in the midst of a global recovery from COVID-19 and the recent accelarated financial tight-ening;and the expected impact of both energy policies and technology advancement on th
188、e energy sector.All assumptions have undergone thorough analysis to enable the development of the Reference Case.1.1 Population and demographicsThe average age of the global population is rising appreciably,on the back of advancements in areas such as health and nutrition,and at the same time,the wo
189、rlds population contin-ues to witness gradual growth.Although the overall trend sees a general transition towards lower population growth,some regional variations can be seen within this overarching trend.Many OECD countries already have low population growth,and many developing countries are set to
190、 undergo a similar transition in the coming decades.Demographic elements addressed in this chapter are an indispensable input to this years WOO analysis and have been carefully analyzed.In July 2022,the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released their latest World Population P
191、rospects(UNDESA,2022).The new update,the first since 2019,presents a number of important developments that are discussed in this section.Firstly,it highlighted a continued decline in fertility rates,meaning that for the first time,the World Population Prospects shows a peak in global population in i
192、ts medium variant of around 10.4 billion in 2086.In relation to the forecast period in this Outlook,total global population is anticipated to expand by 1.6 billion from its current level of approximately 7.9 billion in 2021,to almost 9.5 billion by 2045(Table 1.1).The population growth projection in
193、 the non-OECD region accounts for over 96%of the total growth,with the OECD accounting for under 4%.The Middle East and Africa region(excluding OPEC countries),as per the WOOs regional groupings(see Annex B),is expected to drive 48%of the population growth,with Other Asia,India and OPEC each providi
194、ng between 15%and 19%.In the OECD,growth in OECD Americas will more than offset a 12 million decline in OECD Asia-Pacific.Chinas population is now projected to decline by around 76 million in the next 24 years(20212045),by far the largest drop of major economies.This compares to population growth of
195、 188 million in the previous 24 years(19972021)as seen in Figure 1.1.Indias population is expected to expand by 238 million over the period 20212045,albeit less than the 405 million people added in the past 24 years.Similarly,population growth in the OECD region for 20212045 is forecast to be signif
196、icantly less than the 187 million expansion in its population over the 19972021 timeframe.The Middle East&Africa region and OPEC are presently experiencing rapid population growth.This trend is set to continue throughout the projection period.Given this trend,the region is expected to become home to
197、 the largest overall population by 2045.Notably,the Middle East&Africa and OPEC are the only regions projected to see an increase in their growth rate,adding 747 and 244 million people in the period between 20212045,respectively.This compares to the 527 million and 218 million added from 19972021.KE
198、Y ASSUMPTIONS23World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Figure 1.1World population growth,19972021 versus 20212045Source:UN,OPEC.Latin AmericaOECDChinaRest of the WorldOPECOther AsiaIndiaMiddle East&Africa1004009001,4001,9002,40012045millionsSource:UN,OPEC.T
199、able 1.1Population by regionLevelsGrowth202352040204520212045OECD Americas525537559OECD Europe5805845865875865844OECD Asia-Pacific220820512OECD1,3211,3361,3511,3621,3691,37251Latin America47849250852253354162Middle East&Africa1,1651,2791,4301,5871,7491,912747India1,4
200、081,4551,5151,5681,6121,646238China1,4261,4241,4161,4001,3781,35076Other Asia1,2451,3011,3681,4301,4861,535290OPEC5712762244Russia913713510Other Eurasia22042058Non-OECD6,5816,8487,1877,5087,8098,0861,504World7,9028,1848,5388,8709,1799,4571,555millionsCHAPTER ONE24Wor
201、ld Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesBy the second half of the 2020s,Indias population is projected to surpass that of China(Figure 1.2).The Middle East and Africa is then expected to exceed India by around 2035.Figure 1.2World population trends,19902045Source:UN,OPEC.
202、05001,0001,5002,0002,50002005200252030203520402045millionsOECDLatin AmericaMiddle East&AfricaIndiaChinaOther AsiaOPECRest of the World1.1.1 Working-age populationThe global working-age population(aged between 15 and 64)is expected to expand by 869 million over the projection pe
203、riod(Table 1.2).The relative share of the global work-ing age population to the worlds total is expected to fall slightly to 2045,from 65%in 2021 to slightly above 63%.Regionally,Chinas working-age population is expected to fall by 164 million over the projection period.This tallies with the country
204、s estimated population growth dynamics.The Middle East&Africa,with 527 million additional working age people by 2045,is pro-jected to experience the most growth,followed by OPEC,Other Asia,and India.By 2045,the Middle East&Africa and OPEC are set to contribute more than 60%of the growth to the world
205、s working-age population.1.1.2 UrbanizationUrbanization is closely associated to enhanced energy access and a pivotal factor for mitigating energy poverty,with trends reflecting economic development,social issues and energy consumption.The urbanization rate measures the level of the total popula-tio
206、n living in urban areas in percentage terms.In 2021,more than 56%of the worlds population lived in urban areas compared to just 43%only a few decades ago in 1990.Urbanization is expected to expand further in the coming decades,with 66%of the worlds population projected to be urban by 2045.With an av
207、erage exceeding 80%living in urban areas,the OECD and Latin America are markedly the most urbanized(Figure 1.3).Within the OECD,OECD Asia-Pacific is the most urbanized at approximately 89%in 2021,followed by OECD Americas at almost KEY ASSUMPTIONS25World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum
208、 Exporting Countries1Table 1.2Working population(age 1564)by region2023520402045Growth20212045OECD Americas34535035535936136318OECD Europe37437336735935134232OECD Asia-Pacific511811323OECD85485785284383081837Latin America32433434335135435430Middle East&Africa6627408469561,0721,
209、189527India9509951,0431,0791,1021,117166China986987972931867822164Other Asia89771,006191OPEC3447478167Russia97949392898512Other Eurasia11311301NonOECD4,2744,4704,7054,8955,0385,180906World5,1295,3275,5575,7385,8685,998869millionsSource:UN,OPEC.Figure 1.3Urbanization
210、rate for selected regions,20002045Source:UN,OPEC.253545556575859520002005200252030203520402045%OECDNon-OECDLatin AmericaMiddle East&AfricaIndiaChinaOther AsiaOPECWorldCHAPTER ONE26World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesTable 1.3Net migration by regionmillio
211、n2020202520252030203020352035204020402045OECD Americas5.25.96.36.36.2OECD Europe5.81.73.33.43.5OECD Asia-Pacific1.41.51.51.51.5OECD12.59.111.111.211.1Latin America0.61.10.80.80.7Middle East&Africa1.21.11.81.81.8India1.82.42.42.52.5China1.21.61.51.61.5Other Asia3.54.24.14.14.1OPEC2.00.50.30.40.4Russi
212、a1.40.30.50.50.5Other Eurasia3.40.60.50.50.5Non-OECD12.49.011.111.211.1Source:UN,OPEC.83%and OECD Europe at around 77%.Latin America had an urbanization rate of almost 81%.Both the OECD and Latin America will continue to urbanize over the long-term to 2045,reaching over 86%by 2045.China has witnesse
213、d a dramatic change in urbanization over the last 30 years or so.The countrys urban population rate matched Indias before 1990,but in the period since it has experienced significant growth.Moreover,and despite the decelerating rate,China is expected to urbanize to the point where it overtakes the OP
214、EC region and is well above the global average.Chinese growth has helped drive the current overall urbanization level in Asia to almost 50%.Remarkably,Indias urbanization rate has been the lowest and it is projected to remain the lowest regionally by 2045,despite an anticipated considerable rise in
215、the coming decades.The Other Asia region is projected to mostly shadow the trajectory of India in terms of urbanization levels through to 2045,but it starts from a higher base.OPEC Member Countries stand at a level directly above the current global average of approximately 67%.The Middle East&Africa
216、 region is expected to witness a consider-able expansion in urbanization levels in the coming decades.Yet,Africa is set to remain mostly rural,with 43%of its population projected to be living in urban areas by 2045.1.1.3 MigrationAn additional dynamic element of demographic disparities on a regional
217、 basis is the movement of population.Net migration,as depicted in Table 1.3,measures the variation of population between the medium variant case and zero migration variant case.KEY ASSUMPTIONS27World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1As expected,the COVID-19 pandemics
218、 impact on mobility and international travel has affected migration across regions and countries.A significant reduction in migra-tion flows are estimated for 2020 and 2021.The net migration figures are also heav-ily impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,which is forecast to result in a large out-
219、flow of people from the Other Eurasia region in 2022,with an overall inflow of migrants expected in the years to 2027 as displaced populations return.After this decade,net migration returns to a similar long-term trend seen in previous outlooks,where steady population inflows are mainly to OECD regi
220、ons.1.2 Economic growthA variety of developments over 2021 and 2022 has created further uncertainties for the global economic growth forecast.Three main issues are currently the focus of short-term economic developments.The first is the ongoing global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that was centra
221、l to last years WOO projections.The other two are more recent:the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,with a variety of spillover effects,and the accelerated financial tightening across the globe,triggered by recent strong rises in inflation.These three factors are already affecting short-te
222、rm developments.Moreover,it is clear that these will have medium-and possible long-term implications too,although exactly what these are remain to be seen.Some pandemic consequences,and their knock-on impacts will need to be con-sidered in the medium-term forecast.Additionally,certain elements trigg
223、ered by the pandemic,such as debt levels,de-globalization,working from home,but also correspondingly,staff shortages,may also influence the longer-term outlook;The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has already had a significant impact on short-term developments,for example,trade and commodity
224、 flows and the consequent inflationary effects,as well as G7-led sanctions against Russia and Belarus.This could have potential consequences for the medium-to long-term;The impact of the third major force related to financial tightening due to rapidly rising inflation is considered more of a short-t
225、o medium-term phenom-enon.The consequences of the financial tightening may continue to be intense throughout most of the medium-term period as the inflationary trend triggers central banks to tighten their monetary supply.It is assumed,however,that the impact will lessen towards the end of the perio
226、d.Beside these three major challenges,some additional factors will need close monitoring,especially in the medium-to long-term:High debt levels in some key economies.This primarily reflects upon sovereign debt,but private-sector debt has also risen to unhealthy levels;There is the possibility of ris
227、ing global taxes because of high sovereign debt piles.This is particularly relevant in a rising interest rate environment,a dynamic that will increase debt service payments;Beside the Russia-Ukraine conflict,other geopolitical tensions may play a role.CHAPTER ONE28World Oil Outlook 2022Organization
228、of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesIt is important to reference some of the uncertainties that are not directly linked to the macroeconomic or geopolitical sphere,but which could potentially influence medium-to long-term growth.The obvious one is rising inequality among countries,but also within co
229、untries.This has the potential to lead to social tensions that could turn out to be impactful.The general trend towards de-globalization may lead to rising inflation via such issues as re-shoring and friend-shoring to more expensive economies with relatively higher income levels.Moreover,it could al
230、so lead to rising global tensions,given that such policies could see exports from developing and emerging markets negatively affected.However,cost pressures may lead to rising productivity levels a compensatory factor to rising production costs in developed economies that are engaging in a re-shorin
231、g policy.There is also the ongoing Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)dynamic that could lead to further inflationary tendencies in energy supply costs,as has been witnessed at the end of 2021 and into 2022.Furthermore,the potential decoupling trend from the US dollar,particularly in emerging a
232、nd developing economies,may have far-reaching consequences too,ranging from the negative effects on the debt-driven dynamic of the US economy to a variety of outcomes when it comes to exchange rates.While it is extremely challenging to capture the definite outcomes of all these uncertainties,particu
233、larly over the medium-to long-term,it is important to analyze them and highlight some base economic assumptions of these issues in the various sub-sec-tions.Moreover,to better understand current and future growth trends it may be help-ful to distinguish between a pre-pandemic and a post-pandemic eco
234、nomic environment.Some pre-COVID-19 trends have been accelerated by the impacts of the pandemic,while others have originated as a direct result of it.Furthermore,the characterization of a post-pandemic world should now be expanded to include the impacts and possible consequences of the Russia-Ukrain
235、e conflict.1.2.1 Current situation and short-term growthThe current combination of the ongoing pandemic,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an acceleration in financial market tightening is evidently providing numerous uncertain-ties to the short-term growth outlook.Global economic uncertainties,especia
236、lly regard-ing the ongoing impacts of the pandemic,such as supply chain concerns,and geopo-litical tensions in Eastern Europe,have become increasingly evident in 2022.Global inflation has risen,due to the conflict and the pandemic,among other drivers,and hence financial tightening has accelerated.Wh
237、ile the world has become more accustomed to living with the pandemic in 2022,it continues to impact lives and consumer spending habits and may also be an important reason for intensifying global labour market tightness,especially in the US and the Euro-zone.Additionally,increasing debt levels in maj
238、or economies,often as a result of the pandemic,in combination with rising interest rates,has already led to a selective increase in bond yields,which in turn makes refinancing more challenging.KEY ASSUMPTIONS29World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1What is clear is t
239、hat inflation has become a dominant concern in 2022.While some factors should be viewed as temporary with their impacts slowing in the near-term,it is evident inflation is a dampener on global growth.This inflationary dynamic has caused the US Federal Reserve(the Fed)to hike interest rates forcefull
240、y,with the European Central Bank(ECB)following.These developments will need to be carefully monitored as rising interest rates may turn out to be stress factors for many highly indebted economies.For the short-term,it is important to note that there were massive dislocations in 2022 some a continued
241、 consequence of effects from 2020 and 2021 that may only see a lev-elling off in the medium-to long-term.The most obvious developments in 2022,mostly negative for economic growth,but some positive,were:There was a significant negative 1Q22 impact from the pandemic,with lock-downs in some key economi
242、es and social distancing measures leading to a slowdown in consumption,as well as industrial output.This situation continued in selective economies into 2Q22,for example,China,although it is evident that many major economies are now learning to better live with the pandemic;The start of the Russia-U
243、kraine conflict at the end of February 2022 had a variety of negative effects on 1H22.It led to sharp declines in output in Ukraine and in several affected economic sectors in Russia.This included a reduction in energy and agricultural commodity supplies,which led to sharp price hikes for related en
244、d-consumer products and services.This came in combination with the asso-ciated consequences of retracting business and consumer confidence;Monetary tightening,that had already started before the events in Ukraine unfolded,accelerated in 1H22.This has caused broad-based global financial tightening an
245、d led to a positive impact on the US dollar with associated,mostly negative,ripple effects for other countries.This includes additional rises in import prices in non-US dollar denominated economies,especially in terms of importing commodities;Positively,a gradual recovery in the contact-intensive se
246、ctors,including the sub-sectors of travel and tourism,hospitality and leisure began in 2Q22,primar-ily in the northern hemisphere.This was mainly down to the reduced impact of COVID-19.However,it is still forecast that these sectors will only return to 2019 levels in 2023,or even 2024;Alongside posi
247、tives for the contact-intensive services sector,the manufac-turing sector has seen a solid recovery trend too,despite some significant supply-chain bottlenecks.The base short-term economic outlook assumes that the situation in Eastern Europe will not worsen,and that it will not cause further major s
248、pillovers into other economies,beyond its current impact.However,it will be important to monitor how consumers deal with a supply shortfall in agricultural products from both Ukraine and Russia,and what consequences a potential decline in Russian fossil fuel exports to G7 economies could have for en
249、ergy supplies,energy prices and,consequently,economic growth.Additionally,the pandemics negative impact on mobility and growth is forecast to be limited,and less than that assumed in the previous two years.The upside potential to the current forecast is quite limited.However,it may come from a solut
250、ion to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,fiscal stimulus,where possible,and a fading pandemic,in combination with a strong rise in service sector activity,especially in the CHAPTER ONE30World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriescontact intensive areas.These factors could poten
251、tially,albeit with limited capacity,lift global economic growth.1.2.2 Medium-term economic growthThe medium-term economic growth dynamic will also likely be significantly influenced by the outcome of the three major factors highlighted for the short-term.How these factors will shape the medium-term
252、future remains uncertain,but some relevant base assumptions can be made:While COVID-19 is forecast to remain an issue globally,it is not anticipated to derail economic growth at levels witnessed in the period from 20202022.It is assumed some impacts related to seasonality could continue to occur,but
253、 that the economic impact of the pandemic will taper off.The quarterly global economic growth pattern is set to again become more equally spread and the impact from COVID-19 less significant,beginning in 2023;Assumptions about the Russia-Ukraine conflict are extremely challenging to make.It is assum
254、ed,however,that the conflict will not derail the global eco-nomic growth pattern at the same magnitude as it has done in 2022.While the conflict may continue,a global modus operandi is anticipated to be found,one that will help limit the strong rise in energy and food prices,in particular,as well as
255、 the effects of the political fallout.It is also assumed that no escalation of the conflict,nor any spill over into other arenas,especially neighbouring econo-mies,will materialize;Monetary tightening is expected to continue into 2023 and beyond,but it is fore-cast that the pace of the 2022 interest
256、 rate hikes,particularly in the US,will not be repeated.Furthermore,it is anticipated that global inflation will peak in 2022 and then mean-revert to around 2%levels in the US and the Eurozone in the medium-term;From a quantitative analysis perspective,it is assumed,considering the global potential,
257、that growth,in general,will mean-revert over the medium-term and move back towards pre-pandemic levels.Among other important assumptions,it is forecast that the de-globalization trend will continue,albeit at a gradual pace.It will not materially alter the medium-term growth dynamic.In this respect,i
258、t is important to note that while external trade,in general,will likely become less global,it has in recent decades been regionally dominated by three main large trading hubs.One is the US-centred trade region of the Americas,dominated by North America.Another is the Europe region,with its dominant
259、force of Germany,and the third is the Asian region,centred on China.A potential consequence of less globalized trading could be further regional inequalities as wealth transfers via exports may shift towards wealthier economies.These changes,however,will take time to evolve and may only become visib
260、le slowly over the medium-term.The challenges of escalating debt levels have become an increasing concern,particu-larly given the recent swift rise in key policy rates across the world in response to ris-ing inflation.No major dislocation as a possible outcome of this situation is assumed in the for
261、ecast,but it is clear that some highly indebted economies may face potentially mounting issues,of which fiscal constraint would be only a minor one.Moreover,some countries could potentially face default in the medium-term.KEY ASSUMPTIONS31World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
262、 Countries1An important factor that may play a role in reducing debt are rising tax levels.In times of increasing debt,taxes commonly used to reduce debt include those on wealth,capi-tal gains,property/real estate,inheritance,top incomes and corporate taxes,among others.Additionally,environmental ta
263、xes are likely to play a role in the coming years.A global minimum corporate tax rate as agreed upon by the G7 economies in June 2022 points in the direction of global tax hikes.The G7 agreed to a 15%minimum corporate tax rate in June,which was then endorsed by G20 finance ministers in July.Further
264、tax plans,especially in advanced economies,are expected to follow.For the medium-term forecast,it is assumed that rising taxes will not derail the global eco-nomic recovery and that they will be taken primarily from well-established and well-cushioned sources and that the effects of these taxes will
265、 turn out to be well-targeted.Nonetheless,further taxes could limit some growth dynamics,although it is anticipated that these will be at a limited scale.A further knock-on result of the pandemic was that inequalities within economies and across nations rose.This development was accentuated during t
266、he pandemic via the low-interest rate regime,which was relatively more beneficiary to the wealthier parts of the population,for a variety of reasons.With the recent rise in inflation,it is again the poorer parts of society that appear to have been hit the hardest.Among nations,it is also obvious tha
267、t the global economic recovery has become increas-ingly divergent.Those economies that were able to contain the pandemic,particularly through widespread vaccinations,as well as those that had the financial capabilities to provide economic stimulus measures,have rebounded relatively quicker.This incl
268、udes most advanced economies and China.This is in contrast to those economies that had less access to vaccinations,applied less successful containment strategies and had only limited financial resources for fiscal and monetary stimulus.This dynamic has become even more evident as inflation has risen
269、 and any further fallouts from the Russia-Ukraine situation may lead to further rises in global inequality and potentially to more accentuated political frictions.For the medium-term forecast,it is assumed that there will be no further escalation in conflicts that may dampen the global economic reco
270、very going forward and,generally,domestic inequalities within economies will be successfully managed via multilateral cooperation,redistribution effects or other policy measures.Another pandemic impact was the activity drop off in contact-intensive services areas,importantly travel and tourism in 20
271、20 and 2021.The activity has clearly picked up in 1H22,but how this evolves remains to be seen,given high fuel prices,significant staff shortages in the sector and other issues potentially holding back a broad and well-developed recovery.As has already been seen in 1H22,non-essential business travel
272、 will likely remain reduced,private travel curtailed for some time after the pandemic,and ESG-related developments will also to some extent impact this sector.Moreover,restricted supply in air travel and rising travel costs are likely to hold back a stronger rebound.Considering that travel and touri
273、sm accounts for more than 10%of global GDP,the effect is set be felt continuously in the medium-term,particularly in regions that previously relied heavily on tourism.CHAPTER ONE32World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesMoreover,the tendency towards increased teleworki
274、ng has continued with a rising number of enterprises offering this option.This trend appears here to stay,but questions remain as to what the future of homeworking looks like.Consequences may include less commuting with gradual impacts on both economic and social dimensions,hence,sta-tionary retail
275、sales in office areas will be less frequent.Crude oil demand may also be impacted,among others,although so far these impacts have been limited.It is important to note that emerging and developing economies are forecast to out-grow advanced economies in the medium-term,but they will likely also face
276、decel-erating growth momentum amid maturing domestic economies.A potentially lessening global trade dynamic may support this trend too,an outcome of the de-globalization trend.Similarly,to previous WOOs,China and India,constituting the two largest emerging economies,are expected to follow this patte
277、rn and this is reflected in the medium-term forecast,as well as that for the long-term.Another important topic related on to the pandemic is productivity.In advanced econo-mies,in particular,productivity was already declining in the pre-pandemic years.While current forecasts anticipate productivity
278、gains to remain low,the current severe staff shortages and the drive for digitalization may lead to a pick-up in productivity growth.This would come via the effective utilization of new technologies and robotics,utilizing artificial intelligence(AI)not only in the process of industrial production,bu
279、t the services sector too.This has the potential to be a factor that lifts global economic growth signifi-cantly.The challenge,associated with such productivity improvements,however,is how best to utilize human resources that could be idled and how to avoid social conflict.202242025202620
280、27Average 20212027OECD Americas5.63.22.22.02.01.91.92.2OECD Europe6.13.02.11.81.71.61.52.0OECD Asia-Pacific3.02.41.91.41.31.31.21.6OECD5.43.02.11.81.81.71.62.0Latin America7.12.12.12.22.32.42.52.3Middle East&Africa3.42.93.23.23.33.43.53.2India8.17.16.06.16.26.26.26.3China8.15.15.05.15.25.14.95.1Othe
281、r Asia3.94.34.34.34.54.54.44.4OPEC3.35.03.02.82.82.93.03.3Russia4.76.01.21.61.61.51.50.2Other Eurasia4.90.43.13.02.52.52.42.2Non-OECD6.23.94.24.24.34.34.34.2World5.83.53.23.23.23.23.13.2Table 1.4Medium-term annual real GDP growth rate%p.a.Source:OPEC.KEY ASSUMPTIONS33World Oil Outlook 2022Organizati
282、on of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1After this years GDP growth forecast at 3.5%,it is expected that growth will retract to around 3.2%in 2023.Thereafter,growth is anticipated to remain at around this level.In 2027,at the end of the medium-term period,growth is forecast at 3.1%,impacted by slowi
283、ng growth in OECD economies,but also by the maturing growth trend in emerging economies.1.2.3 Growth by regionIn OECD economies,higher growth is forecast to materialize at the beginning of the medium-term period due to pent-up demand,especially in the contact-intensive ser-vices sector.Growth remain
284、s supported by fiscal stimulus measures to counter the impacts of not only the pandemic,but in OECD Europe to help counterbalance the effects from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.While the yearly growth dynamic is similar to last years assumptions,the growth is forecast at lower levels,amid the impact o
285、f inflation and financial tightening,as well the consequences of geopolitical tensions.The OECD is expected to see growth of 3%in 2022 before dropping to 1.6%at the end of the medium-term period in 2027.OECD Americas has recovered well and leads the OECD country group growth momen-tum at the beginni
286、ng of the medium-term period.Fiscal and monetary stimulus effects have supported this dynamic.While most of this stimulus largely ended in 2021,the posi-tive impact on the US economy is still visible,for example,via high saving rates cushion-ing consumption.While it is forecast that consumption will
287、 be dented by rising inflation over 2022 and 2023,the underlying economic growth momentum is forecast to remain robust.A recovery in global trade and a sound commodities sector,especially the oil mar-ket,will add further support and this extends to the other two North American economies of Canada an
288、d Mexico.On the flip side,very high debt levels in the US,in combination with any sustained high inflation levels,could challenge the growth momentum.Chile is also forecast to benefit from a general recovery in commodity exports,primarily its main export,copper,but it is likely to be held back by a
289、gradual slowdown in domes-tic consumption growth over the medium-term.OECD Europes growth is forecast to be significantly challenged by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its political outcome,as well the consequences the conflict may have on its energy supply that has the potential to be impai
290、red,at least in the short-term.In this WOO,the impact of the energy crisis on growth in Europe is limited in scale.However,any significant shortfall in energy supply would provide further downside risk to the current base case.With fiscal support mainly counterbalancing the negative effects from the
291、 ongoing issues in Eastern Europe,rather than stimulating the economy,and with monetary tightening forecast to continue in the medium-term,the region is expected to slow and mean-revert from the rather high growth levels of 2021 and 2022.Moreover,debt-related issues in some EU economies,particularly
292、 Italy,and poten-tially Greece,may re-emerge,at a time of rising interest rates and slowing GDP growth.Positively,tourism is forecast to pick up and play a supportive role in the Euro-zones recovery,especially in 3Q22.In OECD Asia-Pacific,Japan is forecast to witness decelerating growth in the mediu
293、m-term,which was also the trend in last years Outlook.The regions major trading partner,CHAPTER ONE34World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesChina,also provides helpful guidance for future growth,given its importance as a customer for input goods from OECD Asian econom
294、ies.Japan,the largest economy in the region,is forecast to move back to its low-growth pattern in the medium-term as fiscal and monetary stimulus tapers off and rising import prices,alongside a weakening yen,will likely dent growth momentum at the front-end of the medium-term forecast.The medium-ter
295、m growth outlook in non-OECD countries remains relatively diverse.With generally improving commodity markets the main export for many developing economies in these regional groups and improving domestic activity,the outlook is expected to pick up in the coming years,although some uncertainties remai
296、n.High pop-ulation growth in these economies will be beneficial too,especially in the longer-term.In Latin America,the two major economies,Brazil and Argentina,have some uncertain-ties to deal with over the medium-term.With high debt levels,Argentina has limited fis-cal space for manoeuvre and the m
297、edium-term growth momentum is forecast to be low.While Brazil is in a better situation,ongoing high inflation and the consequent strict pol-icy of its central bank will likely dampen the near-term growth dynamic.Moreover,the effects of COVID-19 have affected almost every country in Latin America in
298、a significant way,particularly given the economies fragile health systems.Hence,it remains to be seen how the impacts of the pandemic will be dealt with in the near-term.In the Middle East&Africa,medium-term growth is expected to rise slightly.This is supported by rising commodity demand,growing reg
299、ional domestic demand and aided by the expansion of the middle class.Additionally,a continued global growth dynamic is forecast to lift foreign investment into the region too.Chinas role as the regions major foreign investor,and its need for natural resources,will continue to be important.However,so
300、me dampening and constraining effects may come from any further slow-down in China and the fact that some countries have relatively high sovereign debt levels and large debt servicing obligations.China,and to some extent India,are expected to record a relatively less buoyant medium-term growth dynam
301、ic,compared to some other developing regions.China is forecast to recover some of its COVID-19 related slowdown impacts in 2024 and 2025,with growth of 5.1%and 5.2%,respectively,but thereafter growth is set to slow to 4.9%in 2027.Indias growth is forecast to see some acceleration from 2023 onwards,r
302、eaching 6.2%in 2027,from 6%in 2023.Other Asia is forecast to see sound medium-term growth.Growth is forecast at 4.4%at the end of the medium-term in 2027,with slightly rising momentum over the period.This is generally in line with previous WOOs.The OPEC grouping is aided by rising domestic economic
303、activity,and benefits from solid growth momentum in commodity markets.After a strong recovery in 2022 with a growth level of 5.3%,followed by a further healthy level of 3.4%in 2023,growth is forecast to hold up well at 2.8%in 2024,before accelerating back to 3%in 2027.In Eurasia,Russia constitutes t
304、he most important economy.It is evident that growth has been and will continue to be impacted by geopolitical issues,as well as the associated effects of sanctions and other political measures.It is expected,however,that Russia will rebound to growth of 1.2%in 2023,following a decline of 6%in 2022.T
305、his growth KEY ASSUMPTIONS35World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1level then lifts further and is seen at 1.5%in 2027,with expectations that the economy will successfully implement reforms to counterbalance the ongoing dampening factors.Other Eurasia is forecast to
306、see a decline of 1.8%in 2022,but the region is then set to recover to 3%in 2023.It then sees a deceleration towards the end of the medium-term period to reach 2.4%in 2027.1.2.4 Long-term economic growthIn general,long-term economic growth forecasting is a challenging task,given that it looks out ove
307、r a period of 2025 years.This year,however,it is even more complex,given the major global economic uncertainties that have already been highlighted in the short-and medium-term outlook.Understanding the long-term impacts and repercussions of the pan-demic,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising infla
308、tion are a major challenge for economists.Moreover,the potential changes in the energy sector may be significant for the economy.While it is clear there has been a recent shift towards alternative energy sources,espe-cially renewables,there is also now a narrative forming about the value and competi
309、tive-ness of fossil fuels in the energy mix,in a sustainable way.Nevertheless,the main assumptions underlying long-term economic growth develop-ments remain primarily based on productivity growth,demographic trends and labour market developments.These elements are relatively well understood and rema
310、in the main drivers deter-mining long-term growth trends.Within this framework,labour productivity is by far the most important contributor,both at the regional and global level(Figure 1.4).As already mentioned,further upside may come from the pandemic-induced drive towards digitalization,robotics a
311、nd AI and the more effective use of these evolving technologies.Figure 1.4Long-term GDP growth rates by components,20212045Source:OPEC.101234Non-OECDOECDWorld%p.a.Employment rateParticipation rateWorking-age populationLabour productivityGDP growthCHAPTER ONE36World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of th
312、e Petroleum Exporting CountriesFor non-OECD economies,with the exception of China and Russia,the rise in the working age population will be another important element for growth.A young and thriv-ing population,in combination with advancing education,will be vital for future growth in less affluent p
313、arts of the global economy.In areas like the Middle East&Africa and OPEC,relatively lower labour productivity will continue to be compensated,or even overcome,by the positive effects of rapidly expanding populations,a rising middle-class and sovereign-led investments into domestic economies.Several
314、economic regions and individual economies will be affected by a decline in the working-age population.This affects primarily advanced,and maturing,emerging econ-omies.This trend can be clearly seen in OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific.Within emerging markets,Russia and China are also witnessing the
315、impact of this trend.This dynamic will limit these economies growth potentials,even as labour productivity is forecast to increase.Beyond these three core factors,some gradual changes witnessed over the medium-term will also play a role in the long-term.This includes the effects of the potential pos
316、i-tive impacts from digitalization,AI and robotics on rising productivity,as already noted.Additionally,there are numerous potentially long-lasting effects related to rising infla-tion over the long-term.While only reflected and considered in a gradual manner within the current long-term framework,t
317、he evolution of rising energy prices within the ongo-ing energy transition and its long-term impacts is a factor that needs monitoring.For example,the current trend towards more expensive renewable energy sources may also have an impact over the long-term,lifting prices further and potentially limit
318、ing con-sumer demand and business investments.Another outcome of the pandemic,albeit one that started in the years before,is the trend towards de-globalization.The pandemic has particularly laid bare the vulnerabil-ities of global supply chains.Moreover,the political and economic dimensions related
319、to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has only added to this trend.With the possible conse-quence of re-shoring manufacturing facilities into costlier economies,inflation could be sustained to some extent.Global GDP growth between 2021 and 2045 is expected to increase at an average rate of 3%p.a.This forec
320、ast is slightly below the assumption in the WOO 2021,when the growth forecast stood at 3.1%.However,it is above the WOO 2020 growth assumption,which stood at 2.9%.This underscores the successful efforts of fiscal and monetary stimulus,as well as the structural measures undertaken during the pandemic
321、 to support econo-mies and lift the growth dynamic back to levels that were not foreseen at the start of the pandemic.While the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has inhibited growth somewhat,and monetary tightening will no doubt have a dampening effect,the long-term global growth rate is expected to
322、remain robust.Global growth through to 2045 will be largely driven by non-OECD countries,in line with assumptions from previous WOO editions.These countries are expected to grow by 3.8%p.a.on average(Table 1.5),on the back of improving labour productivity and a grow-ing working age population,even a
323、s the pace of GDP growth begins to slow.The growth dynamic for the entire forecasting period is 0.1 percentage points(pp)above that of last year.KEY ASSUMPTIONS37World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1It is evident that the Middle East&Africa,OPEC and Other Asia,are
324、set to see accelerat-ing growth trends in the long-term,ones that are faster than China.Economic growth in Other Asia is at 3.6%p.a.over the long-term.The growth momen-tum is set to peak at 4.4%for the 20212027 period,but the growth trend holds up well and is at 3%in the last decade of the forecast.
325、In the Middle East&Africa,growth is estimated to average 3.9%p.a.,the same level as in last years WOO.The region is forecast to benefit from a young and growing pop-ulation,as well as increased income levels as more people enter middle class.This will provide additional consumption abilities.Moreove
326、r,the region is also set to benefit from commodity market support amid global growth appreciation.Further upside may materialize if additional structural and economic reforms take place in less productive economies.A downside risk,however,relates to ongoing high-debt levels especially in low-income
327、countries.Russia is forecast to recover relatively well in the long-term,overcoming the current sanctions and economic downturn.Moreover,labour productivity gains may somewhat counterbalance unfavourable demographic changes and a reduction in the working-age population.Economic growth in Russia is e
328、xpected to rise by 1.6%p.a.in the period 20272035,after very low medium-term growth of 0.2%p.a.Commodity market devel-opments,particularly in crude oil and gas markets,will also play an important role in Russias growth path.In the long-term,the countrys declining population is expected to be the mai
329、n influential force and one that prevents growth moving materially beyond Table 1.5Long-term annual real GDP growth rate%p.a.Source:OPEC.202352035204520212045OECD Americas2.22.02.02.1OECD Europe2.01.31.11.4OECD Asia-Pacific1.61.21.01.2OECD2.01.61.51.7Latin America2.32.21.72.0Middle East&A
330、frica3.23.84.43.9India6.36.45.76.1China5.14.12.83.8Other Asia4.43.93.03.6OPEC3.33.23.23.2Russia0.21.61.31.1Other Eurasia2.22.72.32.4Non-OECD4.24.03.43.8World3.23.02.73.0CHAPTER ONE38World Oil Outlook 2022Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesthe long-term average of around 1.1%,especially
331、 if no further structural reforms are implemented.Elsewhere,in Other Eurasia,marginal growth in the working-age popula-tion is set to help average GDP reach a level of 2.4%p.a.over the entire forecast period.Latin America is expected to benefit from ongoing commodity market support and a ris-ing and
332、 young population in most economies.At the same time,however,it is also set to face a number of challenges related to structural issues,especially in its two largest economies,Brazil and Argentina.Brazil is expected to see the impacts of ongoing high inflation in the medium-term,and consequently hig
333、h interest rates,and while it is unclear how the long-term fis-cal situation will evolve,it needs to be monitored closely.Furthermore,the pace of Brazils further structural reforms can be expected to play a role in the countrys long-term growth dynamic.The ongoing sovereign-debt challenges in Argentina,as well as related issues,are anticipated to dampen growth somewhat and also require close monit