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1、2023WorldOilOutlook2045Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesWorldOilOutlook2045Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries2023OPEC is a permanent,intergovernmental organization,established in Baghdad,Iraq,on 1014 September 1960.The Organization comprises 13 Members:Algeria,Angola,R
2、epublic of the Congo,Equatorial Guinea,Gabon,the Islamic Republic of Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna,Austria.Digital access to the WOO:an interactive user experience 24/7DownloadOPEC WOO AppAccess thei
3、nteractive versionOPECs World Oil Outlook(WOO)is part of the Organizations commitment to market stability.The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry.It is also a channel to encourage dialogue,coo
4、peration and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry.As part of OPECs ongoing efforts to improve user experience of the WOO and provide data transparency,two digital interfaces are available:the OPEC WOO App and the interactive version of the WOO.The OPEC WOO App provide
5、s increased access to the publications vital analysis and energy-related data.It is ideal for energy professionals,oil industry stakeholders,policymakers,market analysts,academics and the media.The Apps search engine enables users to easily find information,and its bookmarking function allows them t
6、o store and review their favourite articles.Its versatility also allows users to compare graphs and tables interactively,thereby maximizing information extraction and empowering users to undertake their own analysis.The interactive version of the WOO also provides the possibility to download specifi
7、c data and information,thereby enhancing user experience.Available for Android and iOS OPEC Secretariat,October 2023Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna,Austria www.opec.orgISBN 978-3-9504890-6-4The data,analysis and any other information(the“information”)contained in the World Oil Outlook(the“WOO”
8、)is for informational purposes only and is neither intended as a substitute for advice from business,finance,investment consultant or other professional;nor is it meant to be a benchmark or input data to a benchmark of any kind.Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the i
9、nformation contained in the World Oil Outlook,the OPEC Secretariat makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy,relevance or comprehensiveness,and assumes no liability or responsibility for any inaccuracy,error or omission,or for any loss or damage arising in connection with or attribut
10、able to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the information in the World Oil Outlook.The views expressed in the World Oil Outlook are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of its governing bodies or Member Countries.The designation of geog
11、raphical entities in the World Oil Outlook,and the use and presentation of data and other materials,do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of OPEC and/or its Member Countries concerning the legal status of any country,territory or area,or of its authorities,or concerning t
12、he exploration,exploitation,refining,marketing and utilization of its petroleum or other energy resources.Full reproduction,copying or transmission of the World Oil Outlook is not permitted in any form or by any means by third parties without the OPEC Secretariats written permission,however,the info
13、rmation contained therein may be used and/or reproduced for educational and other non-commercial purposes without the OPEC Secretariats prior written permission,provided that it is fully acknowledged as the copyright holder.The World Oil Outlook may contain references to material(s)from third partie
14、s,whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authori-zation from the copyright owner(s).The OPEC Secretariat or its governing bodies shall not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of any third party material(s).All rights of the World Oil Outlook shall be reserved to th
15、e OPEC Secretariat,as applicable,including every exclusive economic right,in full or per excerpts,with special refer-ence but without limitation,to the right to publish it by press and/or by any communications medium whatsoever;translate,include in a data base,make changes,transform and process for
16、any kind of use,including radio,television or cinema adaptations,as well as a sound-video recording,audio-visual screenplays and electronic processing of any kind and nature whatsoever.Download:All the data presented in this Outlook is available at www.opec.org.AcknowledgementsSecretary General,Chai
17、rman of the Editorial BoardHE Haitham Al GhaisDirector,Research Division,Editor-in-ChiefAyed S.Al-QahtaniHead,Energy Studies Department,EditorAbderrezak BenyoucefMain contributorsChapter 1:Key assumptionsMohammad Alkazimi,Joerg Spitzy,Jan Ban,Masudbek Narzibekov,Christian Diendorfer,Julius WalkerCha
18、pter 2:Energy demandHaris Aliefendic,Jan Ban,Christian Diendorfer,Reem AlNaeimi,Mohammed AttabaChapter 3:Oil demandJan Ban,Mohammed Attaba,Irene EtiobhioChapter 4:Liquids supplyJulius WalkerChapter 5:Refining outlookHaris Aliefendic,Mohammed AttabaChapter 6:Oil movementsHaris Aliefendic,Mohammed Att
19、abaChapter 7:Climate change and sustainable development and energy policiesEleni Kaditi,Reem AlNaeimi,Julius Walker,Boris Kudashev,Daniel McKirdy,Mohammed Attaba,Irene EtiobhioChapter 8:Energy scenariosJan Ban,Julius Walker,Eleni KaditiOther contributorsBehrooz Baikalizadeh,Huda Almwasawy,Mohammad H
20、assani,Mhammed Mouraia,Mohamed Sarrab,Yacine Sariahmed,Sulaiman Saad,Ali Dehghan,Aziz Yahyai,Pantelis Christodoulides Klaus Stoeger,Mohammad Sattar,Mihni Mihnev,Justinas PelenisEditorial TeamJames Griffin,Richard MurphyDesign&Production TeamCarola Bayer,Andrea Birnbach,Lorenz KonzettEditorial Suppor
21、tDaniel McKirdy,Mai SalamaOPECs Economic Commission Board(as of September 2023)Samir Madani,Gaspar Sermao,Antimo Asangono,Fernand Epigat,Afshin Javan,Mohammed Al-Najjar,Abdullah Al Sabah,Abdulnasser Gnedi,Mele Kyari,Yousef Al Salem,Salem Al Mehairi,Ronny RomeroContentsFOREWORD 1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5IN
22、TRODUCTION 13CHAPTER 1 KEY ASSUMPTIONS 171.1 Population and demographics 181.2 Economic growth 231.3 Energy policies 351.4 Technology and innovation 39CHAPTER 2 ENERGY DEMAND 472.1 Major trends in energy demand 482.2 Energy demand by major regions 522.3 Energy demand by fuel 592.4 Energy related CO2
23、 emissions 772.5 Energy intensity and consumption per capita 81CHAPTER 3 OIL DEMAND 873.1 Oil demand outlook by region 893.2 Oil demand outlook by sector 1083.3 Oil demand outlook by product 131CHAPTER 4 LIQUIDS SUPPLY 1374.1 Global liquids supply outlook 1384.2 Drivers of medium-term and long-term
24、liquids supply 1384.3 Breakdown of liquids supply outlook by main regions 1414.4 Breakdown of liquids supply by type of liquids 1554.5 OPEC liquids 1604.6 Upstream investment requirements 160CHAPTER 5 REFINING OUTLOOK 1655.1 Existing refinery capacity 1665.2 Distillation capacity outlook 1715.3 Seco
25、ndary capacity 1935.4 Investment requirements 2035.5 Refining industry implications 204CHAPTER 6 OIL MOVEMENTS 2076.1 Logistics developments 2086.2 Oil movements 2116.3 Crude oil and condensate movements 2156.4 Refined product movements 226CHAPTER 7 CLIMATE CHANGE,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY
26、POLICIES 2297.1 Climate change and sustainable development 2307.2 Energy policies of major economies 238CHAPTER 8 ENERGY SCENARIOS 2518.1 Alternative energy scenarios 2538.2 Energy demand and the energy mix 2548.3 Oil demand 260Annex A 265AbbreviationsAnnex B 269OPEC World Energy:regional definition
27、sAnnex C 273World Oil Refining Logistics and Demand:regional definitionsAnnex D 277Major data sourcesList of tablesTable 1.1 Population by region 19Table 1.2 Working population(age 1564)by region 20Table 1.3 Net migration by region 22Table 1.4 Mediumterm annual real GDP growth rate 25Table 1.5 Longt
28、erm annual real GDP growth rate 31Table 2.1 World primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 49Table 2.2 Total primary energy demand by region,20222045 51Table 2.3 OECD primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 53Table 2.4 Non-OECD primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 54Table 2.5 China pri
29、mary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 57Table 2.6 India primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 58Table 2.7 Oil demand by region,20222045 60Table 2.8 Coal demand by region,20222045 64Table 2.9 Natural gas demand by region,20222045 67Table 2.10 Nuclear demand by region,20222045 70Table 2.11 Hy
30、dro demand by region,20222045 72Table 2.12 Biomass demand by region,20222045 73Table 2.13 Other renewables demand by region,20222045 77Table 3.1 Medium-term oil demand in the Reference Case 90Table 3.2 Long-term oil demand by region 91Table 3.3 Sectoral oil demand,20222045 108Table 3.4 Number of pas
31、senger cars,20222045 113Table 3.5 Number of commercial vehicles,20222045 114Table 3.6 Number of electric vehicles,20222045 116Table 3.7 Oil demand in the road transportation sector by region,20222045 118Table 3.8 Oil demand in the aviation sector by region,20222045 121Table 3.9 Oil demand in the pet
32、rochemical sector by region,20222045 122Table 3.10 Oil demand in the residential/commercial/agricultural sector by region,20222045 126Table 3.11 Oil demand in the marine bunkers sector by region,20222045 127Table 3.12 Oil demand in the other industry sector by region,20222045 129Table 3.13 Oil deman
33、d in the rail and domestic waterways sector by region,20222045 129Table 3.14 Oil demand in the electricity generation sector by region,20222045 130Table 3.15 Global oil demand by product,20222045 131Table 4.1 Long-term global liquids supply outlook 141Table 4.2 US total liquids supply in the long-te
34、rm 143Table 4.3 Long-term global non-crude liquids supply outlook 159Table 5.1 Assessed available base capacity as of January 2023 169Table 5.2 Distillation capacity additions from existing projects by region,20232028 173Table 5.3 Refinery distillation capacity additions by period 175Table 5.4 Crude
35、 unit throughputs and utilization rates,20222045 188Table 5.5 Net refinery closures by region,recent and projected 191Table 5.6 Secondary capacity additions from existing projects,20232028 194Table 5.7 Global capacity requirements by process,20232045 196Table 5.8 Global cumulative potential for incr
36、emental product output,20232028 202List of figuresFigure 1.1 World population growth,19982022 versus 20222045 19Figure 1.2 World population trends,19902045 20Figure 1.3 Urbanization rate for selected regions,20002045 21Figure 1.4 Longterm GDP growth rates by components,20222045 29Figure 1.5 Size of
37、major economies,20152045 34Figure 1.6 Distribution of the global economy,2022 and 2045 34Figure 1.7 Real GDP per capita in 2022 and 2045 35Figure 2.1 Growth in primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045 50Figure 2.2 Growth in primary energy demand by region,20222045 52Figure 2.3 Energy mix in OECD
38、and non-OECD and primary energy demand,20222045 56Figure 2.4 Growth in energy demand by fuel type and region,20222045 59Figure 2.5 Oil demand by region,20222045 61Figure 2.6 Incremental oil demand by region,20222045 62Figure 2.7 Coal-fired generation and share in the global generation mix 63Figure 2
39、.8 Coal demand by major region,20222045 64Figure 2.9 Natural gas demand by region,20222045 67Figure 2.10 Nuclear net electrical capacity and electricity supplied 69Figure 2.11 Nuclear net electrical capacity by age 69Figure 2.12 Nuclear energy demand by region,20222045 70Figure 2.13 Hydro demand by
40、region,20222045 72Figure 2.14 Biomass demand by region,20222045 74Figure 2.15 Other renewables demand by region,20222045 76Figure 2.16 Annual change in energy related CO2 emissions,19502045 78Figure 2.17 Energy-related annual CO2 emissions by region,20222045 79Figure 2.18 Per capita CO2 emissions by
41、 region,2022 and 2045 80Figure 2.19 Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1900,19902045 80Figure 2.20 Evolution and projections of energy intensity in major world regions,19902045 81Figure 2.21 Average annual rate of improvement in global and regional energy intensity,20222045 82Figure 2.22 Energy consumpt
42、ion per capita versus GDP at PPP per capita,20222045 83Figure 3.1 Incremental oil demand by region,20222028 90Figure 3.2 Average annual oil demand increments by region,20222045 92Figure 3.3 Annual oil demand growth in the OECD,20222028 93Figure 3.4 OECD oil demand by sector,20222045 94Figure 3.5 OEC
43、D oil demand by product,20222045 96Figure 3.6 Annual oil demand growth in non-OECD countries,20222028 97Figure 3.7 Non-OECD regional oil demand growth,20222028 97Figure 3.8 Non-OECD regional oil demand growth,20282045 98Figure 3.9 Non-OECD oil demand by sector,20222045 99Figure 3.10 Oil demand in In
44、dia by sector,2022 and 2045 100Figure 3.11 Oil demand in India by product,20222045 101Figure 3.12 Oil demand in China by product,20222045 103Figure 3.13 Oil demand in China by sector,20222045 104Figure 3.14 Oil demand in Other Asia by sector,20222045 106Figure 3.15 Oil demand in the Middle East by s
45、ector,20222045 107Figure 3.16 Oil demand growth by sector,20222045 109Figure 3.17 Sectoral oil demand in non-OECD countries,2022 and 2045 111Figure 3.18 Global fleet composition,20222045 117Figure 3.19 Oil demand in the aviation sector,20222028 119Figure 3.20 Regional demand in the petrochemical sec
46、tor by product,20222045 124Figure 3.21 Demand growth by product category between 2022 and 2045 132Figure 3.22 Growth in global oil demand by product 133Figure 4.1 Long-term non-OPEC liquids supply outlook 138Figure 4.2 Composition of global liquids supply growth 139Figure 4.3 Select contributors to
47、non-OPEC total liquids change,20222028 139Figure 4.4 Global upstream(oil only)capital expenditure 140Figure 4.5 Non-OPEC liquids supply outlook by region 142Figure 4.6 US total liquids supply outlook 143Figure 4.7 Canada total liquids supply outlook 145Figure 4.8 Mexico total liquids supply outlook
48、145Figure 4.9 Norway total liquids supply outlook 146Figure 4.10 UK total liquids supply outlook 147Figure 4.11 Brazil total liquids supply outlook 148Figure 4.12 Argentina total liquids supply outlook 149Figure 4.13 Guyana total liquids supply outlook 150Figure 4.14 Colombia total liquids supply ou
49、tlook 151Figure 4.15 Africa total liquids supply outlook 152Figure 4.16 Russia total liquids supply outlook 153Figure 4.17 Kazakhstan total liquids supply outlook 154Figure 4.18 China total liquids supply outlook 154Figure 4.19 Non-OPEC liquids supply outlook by type 155Figure 4.20 Tight oil supply
50、breakdown 156Figure 4.21 US tight crude oil supply by major producing basin 157Figure 4.22 US producer cost composite index(January 2010=100)157Figure 4.23 US tight oil breakdown 158Figure 4.24 OPEC total liquids supply outlook 160Figure 4.25 Annual upstream investment requirements,20232045 161Figur
51、e 4.26 Cumulative oil-related investment requirements by segment,20232045 161Figure 5.1 Refinery throughputs,indexed to 2019 167Figure 5.2 Secondary capacity relative to distillation capacity,January 2023 170Figure 5.3 Annual distillation capacity additions and total project investment 172Figure 5.4
52、 Distillation capacity additions from existing projects,20232028 174Figure 5.5 Distillation capacity additions and oil demand growth,20232045 176Figure 5.6 Crude distillation capacity additions,20232045 177Figure 5.7 Additional global cumulative refinery crude runs,potential and required 179Figure 5
53、.8 Additional cumulative crude runs in US&Canada,potential and required 180Figure 5.9 Additional cumulative crude runs in Europe,potential and required 181Figure 5.10 Additional cumulative crude runs in China,potential and required 182Figure 5.11 Additional cumulative crude runs in Asia-Pacific(excl
54、.China),potential and required 182Figure 5.12 Additional cumulative crude runs in the Middle East,potential and required 183Figure 5.13 Additional cumulative crude runs in the Russia&Caspian,potential and required 184Figure 5.14 Additional cumulative crude runs in Africa,potential and required 184Fi
55、gure 5.15 Additional cumulative crude runs in Latin America,potential and required 185Figure 5.16 Net cumulative regional refining potential surplus/deficits versus requirements 185Figure 5.17 Historical and projected global refinery utilization,20192028 186Figure 5.18 Global oil demand,refining cap
56、acity and crude runs,19802028 187Figure 5.19 Refinery closures by region,recent and projected 191Figure 5.20 Conversion projects by region,20232028 195Figure 5.21 Global capacity requirements by process type,20232045 197Figure 5.22 Conversion capacity requirements by region,20232045 198Figure 5.23 D
57、esulphurization capacity requirements by region,20232045 199Figure 5.24 Desulphurization capacity requirements by product and region,20232045 200Figure 5.25 Octane capacity requirements by process and region,20232045 201Figure 5.26 Expected surplus/deficit of incremental product output from existing
58、 refining projects,20232028 202Figure 5.27 Refinery investments by region,20232045 203Figure 6.1 Interregional crude oil,condensate and products exports,20222045 214Figure 6.2 Change in crude,condensate and synthetic crude supply between 2022 and 2045 215Figure 6.3 Global average API gravity and sul
59、phur content 216Figure 6.4 Global crude and condensate exports by origin,20222045 217Figure 6.5 Share of Middle East and Asia-Pacific in global crude and condensate trade,20222045 218Figure 6.6 Crude and condensate exports from the Middle East by major destination,20222045 219Figure 6.7 Crude and co
60、ndensate exports from Latin America by major destination,20222045 219Figure 6.8 Crude and condensate exports from Russia&Caspian by major destination,20222045 220Figure 6.9 Crude and condensate exports from Africa by major destination,20222045 221Figure 6.10 Crude and condensate exports from US&Cana
61、da by major destination,20222045 222Figure 6.11 Crude and condensate imports to the US&Canada by origin,20222045 223Figure 6.12 Crude and condensate imports to Europe by origin,20222045 224Figure 6.13 Crude and condensate imports to Asia-Pacific by origin,20222045 225Figure 6.14 Regional net crude a
62、nd condensate imports,2022,2025,2035 and 2045 226Figure 6.15 Regional net product imports,2025,2035 and 2045 227Figure 8.1 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,2030 254Figure 8.2 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenario
63、s,2045 255Figure 8.3 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,20202045 255Figure 8.4 Change in primary energy demand between the Advanced Technology Scenario and the Reference Case in 2045 256Figure 8.5 Global energy demand by sector in the Reference Case and A
64、dvanced Technology Scenario,2030 and 2045 257Figure 8.6 Change in the primary energy demand between the Laissez-Faire Scenario and the Reference Case in 2045 258Figure 8.7 Global primary energy demand by sector in the Reference Case and Laissez-Faire Scenario,2030 and 2045 259Figure 8.8 Global energ
65、y system in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,20202045 260Figure 8.9 Global oil demand in the Reference Case and in alternative scenarios,20222045 261Figure 8.10 OECD and non-OECD oil demand by scenario,20222045 262FOREWORD2World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
66、CountriesForewordFOREWORD1FWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesOver the past year,we have witnessed a significant shift in the narrative related to energy transitions and the intertwined issues of energy security,energy availability and the need to reduce emissions
67、.Governments and political parties are reevaluating their sustainable energy pathways,taking into account the realities on the ground and the views of populations.There has been pushback against the opinion that the world should see the back of fossil fuels,as policies and targets for other energies
68、 falter due to costs and a more nuanced understanding of the scale of the energy challenges.Moreover,we are now seeing more focus on the capacities and national circumstances of all countries in the energy transitions agenda,not just a select few.These were evidently on display at the 8th OPEC Inter
69、national Seminar,held in early July in Vienna,with a focus on the need for all energy sources,all relevant technologies and unprecedented investment,collaboration and support.At OPEC,we believe that the future needs to see energy transition pathways that strive for an inclusive all-peoples,all-fuels
70、 and all-technologies approach.We need to follow sustainable paths that enable economic growth,enhance social mobility,boost energy access,and reduce emissions at the same time.These issues are part of the thinking and analysis that form the backbone of this years World Oil Outlook(WOO),as the Organ
71、ization looks to share its data-driven views on how the future energy landscape may evolve,ones that offer some differing perspectives compared to past editions.What is clear is that the world will continue to need more energy in the decades to come as populations expand,economies grow,and given the
72、 pressing need to bring modern energy services to those who continue to go without.In this years WOO,global energy demand is seen expanding by 23%in the period to 2045,or on average by around 3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day every year.The only way this can be realized is through huge inves
73、tments in all energies.Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver,with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions.In this regard,our Reference Case sees oil demand reaching 116 million barrels a day(mb/d)by 2045,around 6 mb/d higher than in
74、 the WOO 2022,and with the potential to be even higher.For this to be achieved,oil sector investment requirements out to 2045 total$14 trillion,or around$610 billion on average per year.It is vital that these are made;it is beneficial for both producers and consumers.Calls to stop investments in new
75、 oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos.History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energys interwoven complexities.While the world needs more energy,alongside this there is
76、also the need to continually reduce emissions,subscribing to global best practices and cutting edge,best-in-class technologies.For example,carbon capture utilization and storage,direct air capture,clean hydrogen technologies,the circular carbon economy,and others.These form part of the WOOs spotligh
77、t on technologies that should play a key role going forward.FOREWORD2World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesHaitham Al GhaisSecretary GeneralThe platform for building a sustainable energy future for all also comes from stability in energy markets,which remains the cor
78、e focus of OPEC and its partners in the Declaration of Cooperation.The continued proactive,preemptive and multilateral approach to balanced and stable markets and the voluntary production adjustments have proven beneficial over the past year.It will continue to be a guiding principle in the years to
79、 come.Nonetheless,the future requires all industry stakeholders to work together,no-one can work alone.Collaboration needs to be based on the realities we see before us,to ensure a long-term investment-friendly climate for all energies.In putting together this years WOO,I would like to thank all tho
80、se involved:management,analysts,editors,designers and all others that played a role.The OPEC team should be proud of this achievement,which is central to the Organizations embrace of transparency through dialogue and cooperation.We are excited to introduce the WOO 2023 to our valued readership.We be
81、lieve it offers a forward-thinking approach and a visionary blueprint to help meet energy security concerns,lessen energy poverty and reduce emissions.We look forward to any feedback you may have.FOREWORD3FWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesEXECUTIVE SUMMARY4World
82、 Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesExecutive SummaryEXECUTIVE SUMMARY5ESWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesBalanced energy policies and innovative technologies are key to a sustainable futureSustainable energy and economic prosperity
83、 for all requires the use of all sources of energy and the deployment of all relevant technologies with unprecedented levels of investment and collaboration.Recent shifts and the re-consideration of energy transition policies and targets by governments across the world are placing greater emphasis o
84、n energy security.This outlook takes all these recent developments into account to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook,that is based on a scientific approach and hard data.This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already-enacted,let alone announced energy
85、 policies,will be comprehensively implemented.Population growth drives energy demand requirementsGlobal population is expected to expand by around 1.5 billion from nearly eight billion in 2022 to about 9.5 billion by 2045.This will be driven by strong population growth in the Middle East&Africa and
86、Other Asia.The global working-age population(aged between 1564)is set to increase globally by 826 million over the forecast period,while the global urbanization rate is anticipated to rise from 57%in 2022 to 66%by 2045.Average global economic growth is seen at 3%p.a.over the long-term Global economi
87、c growth is expected to average 3%per annum(p.a.)over the forecast period.Thus,over the entire outlook,global GDP is set to almost double from$138 trillion in 2022 to World population trends,19902045Source:OPEC.05001,0001,5002,0002,50002005200252030203520402045millionsOECDLatin
88、 AmericaMiddle East&AfricaIndiaChinaOther AsiaOPECRest of the WorldSource:OPEC.Long-term annual real GDP growth rate20222028202820352035204520222045OECD Americas1.52.22.22.0OECD Europe1.41.51.11.3OECD Asia-Pacific1.31.31.11.2OECD1.51.81.61.6Latin America1.92.21.81.9Middle East&Africa3.13.94.54.0Indi
89、a6.16.35.96.1China4.94.23.03.8Other Asia4.34.13.03.7OPEC3.03.13.23.1Russia1.01.41.21.2Other Eurasia2.52.52.32.4Non-OECD4.14.13.53.8World3.03.12.83.0%p.a.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY6World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries$270 trillion in 2045(on a 2017 PPP basis).With average lo
90、ng-term growth of 6.1%p.a.,India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major developing country.China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.Global primary energy demand to increase by 23%to 2045,driven by non-OECDGlobal primary energy demand is se
91、t to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day(mboe/d)in 2022 to close to 359 mboe/d in 2045,an increase of 68.3 mboe/d,or 23%over the outlook period.Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments,in line wi
92、th moderating population and economic growth.Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region,which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period.Around 28%of non-OECD growth is expected to come from India alone.At the same time,energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginall
93、y decline in the outlook period.Total primary energy demand by region,20222045Source:OPEC.Levelsmboe/dGrowthmboe/dGrowth%p.a.Share%202220252030203520402045202220452022204520222045OECD Americas55.455.456.456.656.455.90.50.019.015.6OECD Europe33.734.033.933.432.732.01.70.211.68.9OECD Asia-Pacific17.51
94、7.717.918.018.018.00.50.16.05.0OECD106.6107.1108.2108.0107.1105.90.70.036.729.5China71.375.278.178.778.177.46.10.424.521.6India19.221.325.429.734.138.519.33.16.610.7OPEC20.322.826.429.632.634.714.42.47.09.7Other DCs50.354.261.168.275.077.126.81.917.321.5Russia15.715.515.415.315.215.20.50.15.44.2Othe
95、r Eurasia7.57.88.38.99.510.42.91.42.62.9Non-OECD184.3196.8214.7230.3244.5253.369.01.463.370.5World290.9303.9322.9338.3351.6359.268.30.9100.0100.0World primary energy demand by fuel type,20222045Levelsmboe/dGrowthmboe/dGrowth%p.a.Fuel share%202220252030203520402045202220452022204520222045Oil90.796.41
96、02.0104.3105.3106.115.40.731.229.5Coal75.974.671.165.960.054.421.51.426.115.1Gas67.169.675.080.284.487.020.01.123.124.2Nuclear15.015.917.419.421.723.88.82.05.26.6Hydro 7.78.28.99.610.210.52.81.32.72.9Biomass*26.627.930.232.334.135.28.61.29.19.8Other renewables*7.911.218.526.735.842.234.37.52.711.7To
97、tal290.9303.9322.9338.3351.6359.268.30.9100.0100.0*Biomass includes solid biomass,waste,biogas,biofuels and charcoal.*Other renewables include wind,solar,geothermal and tidal energy.Source:OPEC.Wind and solar grow at the fastest rate;oil retains the largest share in the energy mixDemand for all prim
98、ary fuels is set to increase in the long-term,with the exception of coal due to energy policy and climate commitments.The strongest growth is expected for other renewables(notably wind and solar),which will increase by 34.3 mboe/d,based on strong EXECUTIVE SUMMARY7ESWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organizatio
99、n of the Petroleum Exporting Countriespolicy support in many regions.The share of other renewables in the energy mix is set to rise from around 2.7%in 2022 to 11.7%in 2045.Oil demand will grow strongly too,and even though its share in the energy mix declines modestly,oil will remain the fuel with th
100、e largest share by 2045 at 29.5%.Natural gas demand is set to increase by 20 mboe/d over the outlook period,reaching 87 mboe/d in 2045.The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from above 80%in 2022 to about 69%in 2045,due to the decline of coal.In the same period,the combined share of o
101、il and gas in the energy mix still represents 54%in 2045.Oil demand shows strong medium-term growth;long-term oil demand rises to 116 mb/d by 2045Global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels a day(mb/d)in 2028,representing an increase of 10.6 mb/d compared to 2022.Non-OECD oil
102、demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d,reaching a level of 63.7 mb/d by 2028.OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term.In the long-term,global oil demand is expected to increase by more than 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045,rising from 99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d i
103、n 2045.Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and 2045.In contrast,OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d.Long-term oil demand by region Growth20222025203020352040204520222045OECD Americas25.025.525.824.823.221.53.5OECD Europe13.513.513.112.010.89.8
104、3.7OECD Asia-Pacific7.47.57.26.66.05.42.0OECD45.946.546.043.440.036.79.3China14.916.817.818.218.518.84.0India5.15.97.38.810.211.76.6Other Asia9.09.911.112.112.913.64.6Latin America6.46.97.88.48.79.02.5Middle East8.39.410.010.711.411.93.6Africa4.44.95.96.67.48.23.8Russia3.63.84.04.03.93.90.3Other Eur
105、asia1.21.21.31.41.51.50.3Other Europe0.80.80.90.90.80.80.0Non-OECD53.659.666.071.075.479.425.7World99.6 106.1 112.0 114.4 115.4 116.0 16.4 mb/dSource:OPEC.India leads in driving oil demand growthThe largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India,Other Asia,China
106、,Africa and the Middle East.India will add 6.6 mb/d to oil demand over the forecast period.Other Asias oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d,Chinas by 4 mb/d,Africas by 3.8 mb/d and the Middle Easts by 3.6 mb/d.Road transport,petrochemicals and aviation are key to oil demand growthThe largest in
107、cremental demand over the forecast period is projected for the road transportation,petrochemical and aviation sectors.Oil demand in these sectors is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d,4.3 mb/d and 4.1 mb/d,respectively.With respect to refined products,major long-term demand growth is expected for jet/keros
108、ene(4 mb/d)followed by ethane/liquefied petroleum gas(3.6 mb/d),diesel/gasoil(3.1 mb/d),naphtha(2.5 mb/d)and gasoline(2.5 mb/d).EXECUTIVE SUMMARY8World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesStrong medium-term non-OPEC liquids supply growth,led by the USNon-OPEC liquids sup
109、ply is expected to grow from 65.8 mb/d in 2022 to 72.7 mb/d in 2028,or by almost 7 mb/d.Incremental supply in the US makes up nearly half of this,at 3.4 mb/d,with other major drivers being Brazil,Guyana,Canada,Qatar and Norway.With US liquids supply set to peak around the end of the current decade,o
110、verall non-OPEC production starts declining from the early 2030s,eventually falling to 69.9 mb/d by 2045.Guyana,Canada,Argentina,Brazil and Kazakhstan are some of the few non-OPEC producers set to expand beyond the medium-term,but non-crude liquids including biofuels and other unconventionals will a
111、lso keep increasing.Source:OPEC.Oil demand growth by sector,20222045Demand in 2022Growth intransportationGrowth in industryGrowth in other sectorsDemandin 204599.6116.0Road 4.6Aviation 4.1Other 1.1Petrochemicals 4.3Other industry 1.5Electricity gen.0.8 Resid./Comm./Agr.1.690955120mb/dOPEC
112、s share of global liquids supply rises from 34%in 2022 to 40%in 2045OPEC liquids will rise steadily in the medium-term from 34.2 mb/d in 2022 to 37.7 mb/d,and further to 46.1 mb/d by 2045.Thus,OPECs share of global liquids supply will increase from 34%in 2022 to 40%in 2045.Composition of global liqu
113、ids supply growthSource:OPEC.Supply in 2022Non-OPECliquids growthOPECliquids growthSupply in 2045808590955120mb/dEXECUTIVE SUMMARY9ESWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesSource:OPEC.OPEC total liquids supply outlook27293434547492020202520302035
114、20402045mb/dSource:OPEC.Cumulative oil-related investment requirements by segment,20232045UpstreamDownstreamMidstream11.11.71.2$(2023)trillionOil investment requirements total$14 trillion by 2045Investment requirements for the overall oil sector,between 2022 and 2045,are estimated at a cumulative$14
115、 trillion(in 2023$US),or around$610 billion p.a.on average.Of this,$11.1 trillion is expected to be required in the upstream sector,or an average of$480 billion p.a.Downstream and midstream requirements are estimated at$1.7 and$1.2 trillion,respectively.If these investments do not materialize,it rep
116、resents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security.Asia-Pacific,Middle East&Africa drive medium-term refinery expansionsAround 6.6 mb/d of refining capacity additions are projected between 2022 and 2028.Most of this new capacity will be in the Asia-Pacific(3.1 mb/d),Mi
117、ddle East(1.6 mb/d)and Africa(1.2 mb/d).Additions in other regions are minor and mostly limited to the expansion of existing refineries.New crude distillation capacity requirements at 19.2 mb/d through 2045In the long-term(20232045),global refining capacity additions are set at 19.2 mb/d(including c
118、apacity creep).Similar to oil demand growth,additions are front-loaded,with a slowdown in the rate towards 2045.Around 85%of long-term additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific,Middle East and Africa.This continued trend of refining capacity migration from developed to developing countries mirrors
119、the shifts in regional demand.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY10World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesSource:OPEC.Crude distillation capacity additions,20232045US&CanadaLatinAmericaAfricaEuropeRussia&CaspianMiddleEastChinaOtherAsia-Pacific012345678mb/d204020452035204020302035202520
120、3020232025Long-term crude and condensate trade flows rise to above 45 mb/d by 2045Driven by strong demand growth,global interregional crude and condensate trade is expected to reach levels above 39.3 mb/d in 2025,up by more than 3 mb/d relative to 2022 levels.After 2025,total crude and condensate fl
121、ows are set to increase gradually to 45.3 mb/d by 2045,driven by rising oil demand and declining supply in importing regions.Major contributors to the export growth are the Middle East,Latin America and the US&Canada.Asia-Pacific remains by far the largest destination for crude exportsThe Asia-Pacif
122、ic remains by far the main destination for global crude and condensate exports.Total imports increase gradually from 23 mb/d in 2022 to 32.6 mb/d in 2045.This translates into its share of the global interregional trade rising from around 64%in 2022 to almost 72%in 2045.Global crude and condensate ex
123、ports by origin*,20222045*Only trade between major regions is considered,intratrade is excluded.Source:OPEC.002220252030203520402045mb/d Asia-PacificMiddle EastRussia&CaspianEuropeAfricaLatin AmericaUS&CanadaEXECUTIVE SUMMARY11ESWorld Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exportin
124、g CountriesSource:OPEC.Crude and condensate imports to the Asia-Pacific by origin,20222045The Outlook considers two alternative scenarios relative to the Reference CaseAn Advanced Technology Scenario illustrates a technology-driven means of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2C.T
125、his includes a much greater diffusion of carbon capture utilization&storage(CCUS),carbon capture and storage(CCS)and direct air capture(DAC)technologies in industrial sectors,stronger investment in hydrogen supply networks,and the increasing adoption of a circular carbon economy(CCE)framework across
126、 the global economy.Primary energy demand in this scenario will be almost 55 mboe/d lower by 2045 compared to the Reference Case.Oil demand,after stabilizing at over 100 mb/d until around 2035,will then drop slightly towards 98 mb/d by 2045,which is 18 mb/d lower than in the Reference Case.The Laiss
127、ez-Faire Scenario,which is a more optimistic and more equitable outlook for developing economies,assumes a faster return to higher economic growth during the medium-term and maintains this stronger growth in the long-term,especially for developing countries.Policies will tighten in the future,contri
128、buting to improved efficiencies and supporting the further expansion of renewables;however,in an isolated manner given the absence of a coordinated move to reduce future emissions.Moreover,protectionism and unilateralism will play a more important role in prioritizing local development needs over gl
129、obal issues.In this scenario,both primary energy demand and oil demand will be consistently higher than the Reference Case.Oil demand surpasses 113 mb/d by 2030 and continues growing to 122 mb/d in 2045.Compared to the Reference Case,this represents a difference of more than 1 mb/d by 2030,which the
130、n expands to 6.3 mb/d in 2045.055202220252030203520402045mb/dMiddle EastRussia&CaspianUS&CanadaEuropeAfricaLatin AmericaINTRODUCTION12World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesIntroductionINTRODUCTIONINT13World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exp
131、orting CountriesINTThe global energy landscape has undergone significant changes during 2022 and 2023.The start of the conflict in Eastern Europe in early 2022 led to an energy crisis that redirected energy flows and exacerbated record-high energy prices.This was especially the case for spot natural
132、 gas and coal prices,as well as electricity prices in many major consuming regions.Moreover,the period has also seen a broad realization across many societies on the need for energy security to go hand-in-hand with economic development and reducing emissions,with many policymakers re-evaluating thei
133、r approach to energy transition pathways.This is true of many of the early adopters of net zero targets in the Global North.It is also true that countries in the Global South have now made it clear what energy transitions mean for them.This renewed focus on energy security and energy affordability h
134、as led to a variety of developments.Many developed countries have turned to fossil fuels,including coal,to meet short-term energy needs,while also enhancing targets related to low-carbon energy and energy efficiency improvements,which are also in line with climate change policies.Increasing the depl
135、oyment of renewable energy and/or nuclear energy is seen by these countries as a means to address the dual challenge of energy security and sustainability.However,these ambitious targets increasingly stand at odds with realities on the ground.The required investments are significantly lagging,as pol
136、icymakers in many countries re-direct expenditures to more pressing issues such as the cost-of-living crisis,inflation and recession worries and welfare spending.There is also a rising chorus of voices questioning the viability and actual benefits of these policies and targets,and asking whether the
137、re are other options to help reduce emissions while ensuring energy security and economic development.At the same time,many developing countries,in their quest to raise the level of energy security,have increasingly turned to domestic energy supplies,predominantly coal.Moreover,there has also been a
138、 refocus on the critical need to continue to utilize fossil fuels going forward,while at the same time reducing emissions.Increasingly,calls for more equitable growth come from developing nations where people need more energy and where countries need to be able to utilize their resources to the full
139、est,while not undermining the UNs goal to ensure affordable,reliable and modern energy services for all by 2030.As a result,the focus of policymakers is turning to improved energy access and energy poverty eradication,while utilizing all energy sources.This clearly depicts a major difference between
140、 developed and developing countries.In the former,energy demand has been increasing only marginally,or even declining in recent years.This allows for a faster penetration of low-carbon energy sources in the energy mix,albeit not at levels to meet many of the targets set.At the same time,developing c
141、ountries,with rapidly growing populations and economies are likely to see a strong increase in total energy demand,which cannot be met by renewables alone.The deployment of renewables is capital intensive,and most developing countries do not have sufficient access to financing.This is why the increa
142、se of low carbon energy sources in the mix is considerably slower,when compared to developed countries.Alongside a recovery from the pandemic,these developments have also helped to support oil demand growth in recent years.Following the turbulent years of 2020 and 2021,global oil demand continued gr
143、owing in 2022,despite the fact that the last quarter of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 were marked by high inflation and continued geopolitical tensions.INTRODUCTION14World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesHigh energy prices that prevailed during most of 2022 started
144、declining towards the end of the year as it became clearer that the energy supply crisis in Europe was easing,supported by a relatively mild winter.Adding to this was Russias ability to redirect its oil exports,mainly to Asia,after the new set of EU sanctions came into force,which,with a few minor e
145、xemptions,banned Russian oil imports to the EU.Major central banks have increased key interest rates in an effort to tame inflation.This,combined with high debt levels in several regions,lowered the prospects for economic growth during 2023.Despite this outlook,oil demand proved to be relatively res
146、ilient to downward revisions during 2023.It remains to be seen,however,how the link between oil demand and the level of economic activity will develop in the years to come as mixed signals are emerging on factors that have the potential to steer this relationship in the future.On the one hand,energy
147、 security is still on the top of agenda for policymakers as many of them have learned lessons from recent developments.Moreover,several major energy companies have signalled a shift in their investment strategy towards more investments in oil and gas projects,acknowledging a more balanced all energi
148、es approach to the energy transitions.On the other,there are new policy initiatives aiming at emission reductions,such as the adoption of the Fit for 55 package by the European Parliament in April 2023 and the Inflation Reduction Act in the US adopted in August 2022.Additionally,there is the Long-Te
149、rm Aspirational Goal(LTAG)for international aviation to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)and the International Air Transport Association(IATA)in October 2022.Additionally,recent investments by car manufacturers to shift production l
150、ines towards electric mobility,especially in China and Europe,is another area to be closely monitored as the evolving composition of the car fleet could have a significant impact on future oil demand.On the supply side,a considerable degree of uncertainty regarding the medium-and long-term outlook f
151、or non-OPEC liquids persists too.Against the backdrop of transitioning towards a lower-emissions future,persistent long-term concerns remain around investment in the oil and gas sector,especially given concerns related to financing,shareholder pressure,and environmental,social and governance(ESG)int
152、erests.However,recent liquids production has remained robust,with non-OPEC supply healthy and OPEC+continuing to act proactively,continuously and pre-emptively,ensuring global oil market stability.The outlook for non-OPEC liquids supply retains the pattern described in recent Outlooks healthy medium
153、-term growth,followed by a peak in the early 2030s,after which output gradually declines again.Combined with oil demand growing in the long-term,albeit at a slower pace,this implies a rising requirement for OPEC liquids,and hence an increasing market share for OPEC producers.Cognizant of all the unc
154、ertainties,this years World Oil Outlook again sketches alternative energy trajectories.An Advanced Technology Scenario illustrates a technology-driven means of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2C,with a much greater diffusion of CCUS,CCS and DAC technologies in industrial secto
155、rs,stronger investment in hydrogen supply networks,and the increasing adoption of a CCE framework across the global economy.The Laissez-Faire scenario assumes a faster return to higher economic growth during the medium-term and maintains this stronger growth in the long-term,especially for INTRODUCT
156、IONINT15World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesdeveloping countries.Policies will tighten in the future,contributing to improved efficiencies and supporting the further expansion of renewables;however,in an isolated manner given the absence of a coordinated move to re
157、duce emissions.Moreover,protectionism and unilateralism will play a more important role in prioritizing local development needs over global issues.This Outlook once again underscores the major questions and challenges the world faces when imagining a common energy future.In this regard,OPEC continue
158、s to strive for a transparent,open-minded and facts-based dialogue to help enable a sustainable energy and economic future for all.This should focus on all energy sources,all relevant technologies,and the views of all stakeholders,and it is hoped this publication contributes to that end.CHAPTER ONE1
159、6World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesKey assumptionsKEY ASSUMPTIONS17World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Key takeaways Sustainable energy and economic prosperity for all requires the use of all sources of energy and the deploymen
160、t of all relevant technologies with unprecedented levels of investment and collaboration,and with energy security,economic development and reducing emissions going hand-in-hand.This outlook takes all this on board,including recent shifts and the re-consideration of policies and targets related to en
161、ergy transitions by governments across the world,to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook that is based on a scientific approach and hard data.This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already-enacted,let alone announced energy policies will be fully or comp
162、rehensively implemented.The global population is estimated to expand by around 1.5 billion from its present level of almost eight billion in 2022 to around 9.5 billion by 2045.Driven by the Middle East&Africa and other Asia,non-OECD population growth is projected to be much higher than the Organisat
163、ion for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).The relative share of the global working-age population is expected to decline from 65%in 2022 to 63%in 2045,despite increasing by 826 million over the outlook period.The global urbanized population is projected to grow by 1.7 billion,increasing fr
164、om 57%in 2022 to 66%by 2045.Global GDP growth between 2022 and 2045 is expected to remain robust and increase at an average rate of 3%p.a.With an average GDP growth of 6.1%p.a.over the projection period,India is set to remain the fastest-growing major developing country.Global GDP is projected to al
165、most double,from around$138 trillion in 2022 to$270 trillion in 2045,all in 2017 purchasing power parity(PPP)terms.China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.The OECD regions share of the global economy is expected to drop from 46%in 2022 to 34%in 20
166、45.Existing and future technologies will significantly contribute to shaping the future energy landscape.The development and deployment of various technologies also helps to set the scene for the Reference Case.Hydrogen is perceived in the context of energy transitions as a possible solution to some
167、 climate challenges,playing the role of an energy carrier.CHAPTER ONE18World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesMultiple key assumptions are made to establish this years WOO.These include demographic projections and trends,possible economic growth in the midst of the cu
168、rrent expedited mon-etary tightening,and the expected influence of technology advancements on the energy sec-tor.With regard to energy policies,the Outlook incorporates recent shifts in thinking and tar-gets related to energy transitions by governments across the world.Compared to previous WOOs,it t
169、akes a more conservative approach towards assuming that already-enacted,let alone announced energy policies,will be fully implemented,thus providing a forward thinking and realistic outlook.What is clear is that a sustainable energy and economic future for all requires all energy sources,all relevan
170、t technologies,unprecedented investment and collaboration,and with energy security,economic development and reducing emissions going hand-in-hand.1.1 Population and demographicsWith advancements in healthcare,nutrition,sanitation,among other factors to improve qual-ity of life,the average age of the
171、 global population has risen considerably in recent decades.Today,the worlds population continues to grow although the general development is a slow-ing trend.Looking ahead some developing countries may also see a similar transitions path-way as the OECD,but many others will defy this trend.In this
172、chapter,various demographic fundamentals are considered and thoroughly evaluated as a means to help evolve the WOOs Reference Case projections.Last year,the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs published their 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects(UNDESA,2022).The 27th edit
173、ion of the UNs official population estimates and projections reflect many key demographic indicators addressed in this section.A key element highlighted is the sustained momentum of a decline in fertility rates.Regarding the projection for this years Outlook,total global population is estimated to e
174、xpand by around 1.5 billion close to eight billion in 2022 to around 9.5 billion by 2045(Table 1.1).Regionally,the Middle East&Africa(excluding OPEC countries),as per the WOOs regional groupings(see Annex B),is expected to drive 48%of the population growth.Other Asia,India and OPEC each contribute b
175、etween 15%and 19%.In the OECD,population growth for 2022-2045 is also estimated to be considerably less than the 184 million expansion in its popula-tion over the 19982022 period.Growth in OECD Americas will more than offset a 12 million decline in OECD Asia-Pacific.Overall,the non-OECD dominates th
176、e projections,accounting for more than 97%of the population growth compared to marginally less than 3%in the OECD.The main anomaly for the non-OECD is the expectation that Chinas population drops by almost 76 million over the outlook period.This also reflects by far the largest decline of the major
177、economies.This compares to population growth of 192 million in the previous 24 years(19982022),as seen in Figure 1.1.Furthermore,2023 marked the year that Chinas popu-lation was overtaken by that of India(Figure 1.2).Going forward,Indias population is set to continue expanding,with an estimated incr
178、ease of 229 million over the period 20222045,albeit less than the 396 million added to its population in the previous 24 years.The Middle East&Africa region and OPEC are currently undergoing rapid population growth.This trend is projected to maintain its momentum through to 2045.In fact,the region i
179、s set to have the largest overall population by the end of the forecast period,a level it achieves around 2035.The Middle East&Africa and OPEC are the only regions expected KEY ASSUMPTIONS19World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Figure 1.1World population growth,1998
180、2022 versus 20222045Source:UN.Figure 1.1mboe/dWidth:135.6 mmHeight:65 mmLatin AmericaOECDChinaRest of the WorldOPECOther AsiaIndiaMiddle East&Africa220451004009001,4001,9002,400millionsSource:United Nations(UN).Table 1.1Population by regionLevelsGrowth20222025203020352040204520222045OECD
181、Americas527537556OECD Europe5835855875875875841OECD AsiaPacific220820512OECD1,3271,3371,3511,3631,3701,37246Latin America48249250852253354159Middle East&Africa1,1971,2841,4361,5941,7561,920723India1,4171,4551,5151,5681,6121,646229China1,4261,4241,4161,4001,3781,35076Other Asia1
182、,2581,3001,3681,4301,4861,535277OPEC527558609660712762234Russia913713510Other Eurasia320520711NonOECD6,6496,8557,1957,5167,8188,0951,447World7,9758,1928,5468,8799,1889,4681,492millionsto see a significant rise in their growth rate,adding 723 million and 234 million people betwe
183、en 2022 and 2045,respectively.This compares to 541 million and 220 million added from 19982022.CHAPTER ONE20World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesTable 1.2Working population(age 1564)by region 202220252030203520402045Growth20222045OECD Americas34635035535936136317OEC
184、D Europe37637436736035134234OECD AsiaPacific511811322OECD85785785284383081839Latin America32733434435135435428Middle East&Africa6837438509611,0761,194511India9619951,0431,0791,1021,117156China984987972931867822162Other Asia8258559019429761,005180OPEC3447478160Russia969493928985
185、11Other Eurasia21321314NonOECD4,3214,4754,7104,9005,0445,187866World5,1785,3325,5625,7445,8746,005826millionsSource:UN.Figure 1.2World population trends,19902045Source:UN.1.1.1 Working-age populationThe global working-age population(aged between 15 and 64)is projected to grow by 826 mil-l
186、ion to reach six billion by 2045(Table 1.2).Despite this large growth,and mainly due to the general ageing of the population,the share of the working age population is set to fall from 65%in 2022 to 63%in 2045.From a regional perspective,the share of the working-age population in non-OECD countries
187、is forecast to drop only slightly,from 65%in 2022 to 64%in 2045,while the change in OECD countries is more pronounced,falling from 64.6%in 2022 to 59.6%in 2045.05001,0001,5002,0002,50002005200252030203520402045millionsOECDLatin AmericaMiddle East&AfricaIndiaChinaOther AsiaOPECR
188、est of the WorldKEY ASSUMPTIONS21World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Figure 1.3Urbanization rate for selected regions,20002045Source:UN.253545556575859520002005200252030203520402045%IndiaChinaOPECMiddle East&AfricaNon-OECDLatin AmericaOther AsiaWorldOEC
189、DIn the OECD,only OECD Americas is set to see a slight increase in the working-age population,mainly due to immigration.A 16%decline in the working-age population is forecast for OECD Asia-Pacific over the forecast period.The decline for OECD Europe is set to be smaller,at 9%,but this is evidently s
190、till significant.Chinas working age population is projected to decline by 162 million between 2022 and 2045,while Indias working-age population is projected to increase by 156 million.The highest absolute growth is forecast for the Middle East&Africa,with an increase of 511 million in the working-ag
191、e population.Other Asia and OPEC are also expected to see significant growth.1.1.2 UrbanizationUrbanization is closely linked to improved energy access and a key factor in helping alleviate energy poverty as both economic development and energy consumption tend to increase.The urbanization rate meas
192、ures the percentage of the total population living in urban areas.In 2022,about 4.5 billion people,which is almost 57%of the worlds population,lived in urban areas(Figure 1.3).This is a sharp increase from 44%only three decades ago.Urbanization is projected to grow in the coming decades,with 66%of t
193、he global population,equivalent to over 6.2 billion people,living in urban areas by the end of the forecast period.OECD and Latin America are the most urbanized regions,with more than 80%of the population living in urban areas.OECD Asia-Pacific has the highest urbanization rate at 89%,followed by OE
194、CD Americas at 83%.This trend is set to continue,despite already high rates of urbanization.OECD and Latin America are projected to have urbanization rates of 87%and 86%,respectively,by 2045,with OECD Asia-Pacific at over 90%.CHAPTER ONE22World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
195、 CountriesTable 1.3Net migration by regionmillions2020202520252030203020352035204020402045OECD Americas5.25.96.36.36.2OECD Europe5.81.73.33.43.5OECD Asia-Pacific1.41.51.51.51.5OECD12.59.111.111.211.1Latin America0.61.10.80.80.7Middle East&Africa1.31.11.91.81.8India1.82.42.42.52.5China1.21.61.51.61.5
196、Other Asia3.54.24.14.14.1OPEC2.00.50.30.40.4Russia1.40.30.50.50.5Other Eurasia3.40.60.50.50.5NonOECD12.49.111.111.211.1Source:UN.Chinas urbanization has changed dramatically over the past three decades,driven by rapid economic development.While the countrys urbanization rate was 28.2%in 1992,it incr
197、eased significantly to 64%in 2022.Due to a mature domestic economy,urbanization is expected to continue at a slower pace,resulting in an urbanization rate of 78.3%by 2045.India had an urbanization rate similar to that of China in 1992.However,in contrast to Chinas rapid urbanization,Indias rate has
198、only increased to 36%in 2022.India has been the region with the lowest urbanization rate since 1989,when it was overtaken by China.This is expected to continue until the end of the forecast period,when its rate is expected to be 50%.Urbanization in Other Asia follows Indias trend throughout the proj
199、ection period,albeit from a higher level.OPEC Member Countries currently have an urbanization level of 68%,and this is expected to reach 76%by 2045.The Middle East&Africa region is anticipated to experience significant increased urbanization in the coming decades.However,the majority of Africas popu
200、lation is set to remain rural,with 43%of the population expected to live in urban areas by 2045.1.1.3 MigrationMigration is another dynamic element in the demographic disparities that exist at the regional level.Net migration,as shown in Table 1.3,measures the change in population between the UNs me
201、dium variant case and the zero migration variant case.The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on both mobility and international travel,severely affecting migration across regions and countries.The impact of COVID-19 on migration,however,has diminished as travel restrictions have eased.In the
202、 short-term,net migration figures are strongly influenced by geopolitical instability,leading to a large outflow of people from one region to another.KEY ASSUMPTIONS23World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1In the medium-and long-term,net migration is anticipated to r
203、eturn to historical patterns,with a steady flow of people from non-OECD regions moving to OECD countries.However,evolving geopolitics may have a significant impact on future migration patterns.1.2 Economic growthThe key economic developments as summarized and described in last years WOO have broadly
204、 continued.The issues include deglobalization,rising debt levels,skilled labour shortages,the consequences of the conflict in Eastern Europe,with a variety of spillover effects,and the accelerated financial tightening across the world,triggered by strong rises in inflation.Of these issues,notably th
205、e effects of monetary tightening and deglobalization have accelerated,while the other issues remain,but have not necessarily progressed in terms of their overall economic impact.1.2.1 Current situation and short-term growthWhile the COVID-19 pandemic is now generally considered to be in the rear vie
206、w mirror,it has had major economic effects.The strict lockdown measures in 20202021 were particularly impactful,but the reopening of economies has helped to support economic growth.Throughout 2022,global supply chain issues prevailed,both on account of geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and
207、 the Chinas zero-COVID policy.Positively,the situation improved towards the end of 2022,and the majority of these supply issues now appear to have been overcome.While inflation has remained notably low in China,it has been a central challenge for most economies in 2022 and 2023.General inflation lev
208、els rose considerably in 2022,but it is now core-inflation that is persistently high.Expectations for ongoing firm inflation,at least in the medium-term,means that interest rates will likely remain above pre-pandemic and pandemic levels in many key economies,importantly in the United States(US),the
209、Euro-zone and the United Kingdom(UK).India and Brazil have more room to manoeuvre and,in China,a more accommodative monetary policy is possible and likely at least in the medium-term.In 2023,global economic growth has remained uneven among regions.However,upside potential in the short-term may come
210、from less accentuated inflation,which would provide central banks with room for relatively more accommodative monetary policies.Emerging Asia,particularly India,but also Brazil and Russia could surprise further to the upside,with domestic demand and external trade accelerating.An even stronger-than-
211、anticipated rebound in China after the reopening of its economy may provide further support to the global economy.Moreover,the US may keep its momentum and potentially could see growth turning out higher-than expected.1.2.2 Medium-term economic growthThe carry-over effects of the main short-term iss
212、ues will also likely provide influential forces for the medium-term economic growth dynamic.The following major assumptions and dynamics are made for the Reference Case.CHAPTER ONE24World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesInflation is expected to gradually slow in the
213、medium-term.After global inflation reached more than 8%in 2022,the consumer price index is forecast to slow to around 6%in 2023.From 2023 onwards,the medium-term inflation path sees a gradual slowdown,reaching around 2.5%by 2028.The medium-term global inflation average is forecast at 3.2%.While infl
214、ation is forecast to be relatively contained in the medium-term,monetary tightening is expected to continue into 2024 and beyond.However,it is forecast that the pace of interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023,particularly in the US,will not be repeated and that interest rates in the US,the Euro-zone an
215、d the UK will peak by the end of 2023.From 2024 onwards,the monetary policy focus will be on a reduction of balance sheets.Global liquidity will,therefore,be reduced,but only gradually.In the OECD,interest rates are expected to be lowered from 2024 onwards.Japan is forecast to continue a more accomm
216、odative monetary policy and is anticipated to keep its key policy rates around 0%up to the end of the medium-term period.Interest rates in the major emerging markets are expected stay at relatively higher levels throughout the period.Assumptions about the conflict in Eastern Europe are challenging.I
217、t is assumed that there is no escalation of the conflict,nor any spill over into other arenas,especially neighbouring economies.In connection with inflation and interest rate trends,the debt related challenges in various economies need to be closely watched.Escalating debt levels have become an incr
218、easing con-cern,particularly given the rapid rise in key policy rates across the world in response to rising inflation.Global debt rose to$305 trillion in 1Q23,which is$45 trillion above pre-pandemic lev-els and it is expected to rise further,according to the Institute of International Finance(IIF).
219、No major dislocation from this situation is assumed in the forecast,but it is clear that some highly indebted economies may face potentially mounting issues,of which fiscal constraint would be only a minor one.Moreover,some countries may potentially face default in the medium-term.In periods of elev
220、ated debt,various types of taxes such as those on assets,capital gains,property,inheritance,top-tier incomes,and corporate earnings are often raised to pay for ris-ing debt services and/or to mitigate debt levels.It is also expected that more environmental taxes may be introduced in the coming years
221、,particularly in developed economies.In the medium-term outlook,it is presumed that potential tax hikes do not hinder the global economic rebound.It is assumed that these will mainly be sourced from well-off and secure entities with the tax collection well-directed.However,the introduction of furthe
222、r taxes has the potential to slightly suppress certain growth aspects,but this is expected to be on a minor scale.If consumer taxes increase,or those impacting the middle and lower income groups escalate,a more substantial inhibiting effect on GDP growth may become evident.For the medium-term foreca
223、st,it is also assumed that there will be no further escalation in conflicts that may dampen the global economic recovery going forward.Generally,domestic inequalities within economies will be successfully managed via multilateral cooperation,redistribution effects or other policy measures.In additio
224、n,it is forecast that the trend of global fragmentation continues,which provides some dampening effect,albeit gradually.It is also assumed that global trade becomes more regionally dominated,with a steady increase in the interactions between the three main trad-ing hubs that have been established in
225、 recent decades.One is the US-centred trade region of the Americas,dominated by North America.Another is the European region,with its dominant KEY ASSUMPTIONS25World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1forces of Germany,France and the UK,while the third is the Asian reg
226、ion,centred on China,India and the Middle East.Trading within Latin America is likely to increase over the medium-term,again with rising regional engagements led by Brazil.A potential consequence of less globalized trading could be further regional inequalities,as wealth transfers via exports shift
227、towards wealthier economies.These changes,however,will take time to evolve and may only become visible slowly over the medium-term.It is important to note that emerging and developing economies are forecast to outgrow advanced economies in the medium-term,but they will also likely face decelerating
228、growth momentum amid maturing domestic economies.In addition,a potentially lessening global trade dynamic may support this trend.Similarly,to previous WOOs,China and India,con-stituting the two largest emerging economies,are expected to follow this pattern.This is reflected in both medium-and long-t
229、erm forecasts.Another important element in connection to economic growth is productivity.In advanced economies,in particular,productivity was already in decline in the pre-pandemic years.While current forecasts anticipate productivity gains to remain low,the current severe staff shortages in combina
230、tion with the drive towards digitalization may lead to a pick-up in productivity.This would come via the effective utilization of new technologies and robotics,including utilizing artificial intelligence(AI).Productivity growth would not only be in the process of industrial production,but the servic
231、es sector too.This has the potential to lift global economic growth significantly.The challenge associated with such potentially significant productivity improvements,however,is how best to utilize human resources that could be idled and how best to avoid social conflict.2022202320242025202620272028
232、Average 20222028OECD Americas2.31.80.71.51.81.92.01.5OECD Europe3.80.61.01.41.71.81.81.4OECD Asia-Pacific2.01.21.21.31.41.41.41.3OECD2.91.20.91.41.71.81.81.5Latin America4.01.71.62.02.12.22.31.9Middle East&Africa3.42.62.93.23.33.43.43.1India6.75.65.96.26.36.36.46.1China3.05.24.84.85.04.94.84.9Other
233、Asia4.63.63.84.54.54.64.64.3OPEC5.63.32.92.82.93.03.03.0Russia2.10.61.01.01.21.31.41.0Other Eurasia3.02.52.82.52.52.42.42.5Non-OECD3.63.93.94.14.34.34.34.1World3.22.72.62.93.13.23.33.0Table 1.4Mediumterm annual real GDP growth rate%p.a.Source:OPEC.CHAPTER ONE26World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of t
234、he Petroleum Exporting CountriesAfter the 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7%,it is expected that growth slows to around 2.6%in 2024.Thereafter,growth is anticipated to mean revert towards the medium-term growth potential of around 3.2%.At the end of the medium-term period in 2028,growth is forecast at
235、 3.3%,supported by a gradual recovery in both the OECD and non-OECD.However,emerg-ing economies will likely experience a maturing growth dynamic,relative to advanced econo-mies,a trend that is expected to continue in the long-term too.Growth by regionIn OECD economies,the rapidly rising interest rat
236、e environment of 2022 and 2023 will dampen economic growth.While 2023 GDP growth is forecast to be materially supported by the ser-vices sector,it will be the industrial side of OECD economies that dampens growth signifi-cantly.Over the course of the medium-term period,however,the growth pattern is
237、set to nor-malize again.The OECD is expected to see growth of 0.9%in 2024 and then rise to 1.8%at the end of the medium-term period in 2028.This compares to an OECD pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 2.1%.OECD Americas will be particularly impacted by the interest rate regimes of the US F
238、ed and the central bank of Canada.High interest rates will lead to growth of only 0.7%in 2024,compared to a pre-pandemic average(20102019)of 2.3%.By 2025,however,GDP growth in OECD Americas is forecast to rebound to a level of 1.5%and then continue rising to 2%in 2028.A major positive effect from 20
239、24 onwards is set to come from monetary easing as inflation is expected to retract materially over the medium-term.On the flip side,very high US debt levels,in combination with any sustained relatively high interest rate regime,could challenge the growth momentum.OECD Europes growth is forecast to b
240、e significantly challenged by ongoing high interest rates,amid high inflation,a situation that is likely to impact GDP growth in the region in 2024 and beyond.In addition,the conflict in Eastern Europe and its political outcome,as well as its ripple effect on both Europes energy supplies and energy
241、prices,will also continue to impair economic development,at least at the beginning of the medium-term.Moreover,debt-related issues in some EU economies,particularly Italy,and potentially Greece,may re-emerge,at a time of rising interest rates and slowing GDP growth.Positively,however,interest rates
242、are forecast to be lowered by the ECB over the medium-term,given that inflation is forecast to recede from 2023 onwards.This dynamic will lead growth higher to stand at 1.8%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 2%and 1%in 2024.In OECD Asia-Pacific,Japan is forecast
243、 to witness a relatively stable medium-term growth dynamic.The regions major trading partner,China,also provides helpful guidance for future growth,given its importance as a customer for input goods from OECD Asian economies.While China is forecast to see less dynamic growth,the other important grou
244、p of trading partners,the G7 economies,are forecast to accelerate.Monetary stimulus is forecast to taper off in most OECD Asia-Pacific economies,but the Bank of Japans(BoJ)monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative,compared to its G4 central bank peers.For OECD Asia-Pacific,growth is set t
245、o stand at 1.2%in 2024 and reach 1.4%in 2028.This compares to an OECD Asia-Pacific pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 2%.The medium-term growth outlook in non-OECD countries remains relatively diverse.While China is forecast to see a less dynamic growth pattern,India is anticipated to see
246、 growth gradually expand.Moreover,the other Asian regions,as well as Latin America and the Middle KEY ASSUMPTIONS27World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1East&Africa,are forecast to see GDP levels expand over the medium-term.This is driven more by the anticipation of
247、 improving domestic activity in these economies than external fac-tors.In this respect,high population growth will play a pivotal role,an aspect that will be especially relevant in the longer-term.In Latin America,the two major economies,Brazil and Argentina,will likely shape growth patterns.Brazil
248、is expected to benefit from fiscal reform and selective governmental support measures.The ongoing deceleration of inflation and the expectation of a consequent accom-modative monetary policy adds further support to medium-term growth.Argentina still has to deal with a number fiscal challenges,at lea
249、st at the beginning of the medium-term period.Considering the high debt levels,Argentina has limited fiscal space for manoeuvre and the medium-term growth momentum is set to be low.Growth in Latin America is forecast at 1.6%in 2024 and reaches 2.3%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average grow
250、th level(20102019)of 2.2%.In the Middle East&Africa,medium-term growth is expected to rise from 2023 levels.This is supported by the anticipation of steady commodity demand,growing regional domestic demand and supported by an expansion of the middle class.Additionally,a continued expan-sion in the g
251、lobal growth dynamic is forecast to lift foreign investment into the region.Growth in the Middle East&Africa is expected at 2.9%in 2024 and reaches 3.4%in 2028.This com-pares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 3.3%.China is forecast to witness growth of 4.8%in 2024.The economys growt
252、h is forecast to remain relatively stable over the course of the medium-term period.While challenges in external trade are expected to remain,domestic demand is set to only gradually pick-up.Furthermore,it is anticipated that the central government will counterbalance any mate-rial deviation from th
253、e governments growth target.Growth of 4.8%in 2024 is the same level expected at the end of medium-term in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 7.7%.Indias growth is forecast to see some acceleration from 2024 onwards.The economy is set to benefit from the countrys po
254、pulation growth,a rising middle-class and major infrastructure projects over the medium-term.An ongoing deceleration of inflation and the expectation of a consequent accommodative monetary policy is set to add further support to medium-term growth.Indias growth is forecast to stand at 5.9%in 2024 an
255、d reaches 6.4%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 7.1%.Other Asia is forecast to see sound medium-term growth.In 2024,growth is forecast at 3.8%and this rises to 4.6%by 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 5%.The OPEC region is su
256、pported by continued diversification efforts,an expanding and rela-tively young population,rising domestic economic activity and steady growth momentum in commodity markets.Growth is forecast to stand at 2.9%in 2024 and reaches 3%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)
257、of 2.2%.In Eurasia,Russia constitutes the most important economy.It is evident that growth has been,and will be,impacted by geopolitical issues including the associated effects of sanc-tions.It is expected,however,that Russia will continue to witness a rebound in its growth to 1%in 2024,following 0.
258、6%in 2023.This growth level is then anticipated to lift further CHAPTER ONE28World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriesand is seen at 1.4%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 2.1%.Other Eurasia is forecast to see a deceleration in its
259、medium-term growth rate.Growth is set to stand at 2.8%in 2024 and reaches 2.4%in 2028.This compares to a pre-pandemic average growth level(20102019)of 2.7%.1.2.3 Long-term economic growthForecasting long-term economic growth is inherently challenging,especially in the after-math of the COVID-19 pand
260、emic that has introduced a multitude of uncertainties and varia-tions in regards to its impacts at the macro level.The complexity of this task has been height-ened even further this year due to the entwined nature of the substantial global economic uncertainties discussed in both the short-and mediu
261、m-term outlooks.Making assumptions about the conflict in Eastern Europe is an exceedingly difficult task.While some degree of global re-balancing has been witnessed thus far,the current outlook remains unclear with many uncertainties regarding the conflicts status and the potential ramifica-tions fo
262、r the global status quo.Additionally,further geopolitical tensions add another layer of complexity to the potential consequences for the global economic growth trajectory.In addition to the COVID-19 legacy and geopolitical tensions,several other systemic issues necessitate continuous monitoring,such
263、 as the ongoing global economic fragmentation that entails evolving shifts in trade,investment,skills,knowledge,and scientific trans-fers.Furthermore,the complexities arising from the further increase in public debts across economies and the advent of higher inflation and interest rates,add further
264、challenges to the current landscape for economists,and for policymakers,who must navigate these multifaceted issues and formulate effective strategies accordingly.Likewise,the potential energy sector transformations may have a substantial impact on economies.While transitions towards alternative ene
265、rgy sources,particularly renewa-bles,have accelerated in recent years,there is a growing discussion about the benefits and competitiveness of fossil fuels within a sustainable energy mix,particularly due to an increased focus on energy security.This emerging narrative recognizes the need to balance
266、environmental concerns with the economic considerations associated with energy security,highlighting the importance of finding sustainable solutions for all.The ongoing energy transitions and the associated rise in energy prices has the potential to affect the long-term structure of the global econo
267、my and support prolonged levels of high inflation.The shift towards more expensive renewable energy systems may result in higher prices,potentially constraining consumer demand and business investments.Other sources of elevated inflation in the long-term include demographics changes,such as populati
268、on age-ing and labour market shortages,particularly in advanced economies,unsustainable levels of public debt,and potential tax increases.Another significant driver of the elevated inflation regime is the trend toward global economic fragmentation.As countries re-evaluate their global dependencies,i
269、t is evident that many may prioritize domestic production and self-sufficiency as regionalization becomes more noticeable.In summary,the current developments unfolding around the world are marked by their complexity and systemic nature,posing substantial challenges for forecasting.Over the last KEY
270、ASSUMPTIONS29World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1two years,it could be said that the world has witnessed an unprecedented transition phase driven by geopolitical dynamics and a shift towards a multipolar world with diverse value sys-tems.Nevertheless,the outcome,a
271、nd full implications of this transition,remains uncertain.For example,since 2022,the group of countries known as BRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa)have witnessed a notable rise in prominence,drawing interest from more than 30 countries that have expressed an interested in joining the
272、group and its New Development Bank.Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates,IR Iran,Egypt,Ethiopia and Argentina will join the BRICS group as early as 2024.These developments signify the evolv-ing nature of the BRICS platform in facilitating the establishment of new development,invest-ment and trade in
273、stitutions within the bloc.Based on the aforementioned,and taking into account current developments,the assump-tions underlying long-term economic growth developments continue to revolve around pro-ductivity growth,demographic trends,and labour market dynamics.These are the key long-term growth tren
274、d factors shaping the trajectory of economies.These factors are relatively well understood and continue to play a major role in driving long-term economic growth.In that context,labour productivity has been the largest contributor,both regionally and globally(Figure 1.4).Additional productivity grow
275、th could come from the pandemic-driven trend towards digitalization,robotics and AI,and the more effective use of these evolving technologies.Figure 1.4Longterm GDP growth rates by components,20222045Source:OPEC.Labour productivityParticipation rateWorking-age populationGDP growthNon-OECDOECDWorldEm
276、ployment rate101234%p.a.The increase in the working-age population will be another important demographic trend for most non-OECD economies.A young and vibrant population,coupled with advancements in education,healthcare and social support systems will play a pivotal role in driving future growth in
277、these regions.CHAPTER ONE30World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesVarious economic regions and individual economies,particularly in advanced and maturing emerging economies,are expected to be significantly affected by a decline in the working-age population.This demog
278、raphic shift is evident in regions like OECD Europe,OECD Asia-Pacific,and emerging markets such as Russia and China.As a consequence,these economies may face some constraints on their growth potential,despite forecasts of increasing labour productiv-ity.The combination of a shrinking workforce and t
279、he need to support an ageing population can pose challenges to sustained economic development in these regions,requiring careful atten-tion and strategic planning to mitigate the impact and help foster long-term growth.In regions like the Middle East,Africa,and OPEC,where labour productivity may be
280、com-paratively lower,the positive impacts of rapidly expanding populations,the rise of the mid-dle class,and government-led investments in domestic economies play a crucial role.To some extent,these factors may help offset the productivity gap by providing a larger labour force,stimulating consumer
281、demand and driving economic growth.Additionally,sovereign investments in key industries and infrastructure projects contribute to diversification,job creation and overall productivity.By leveraging these factors,and focusing on sustainable economic strategies,these regions can achieve better relativ
282、e long-term economic resilience.In addition to the core factors already mentioned,several gradual changes observed over the medium-term will also influence the long-term economic landscape.One significant aspect is the potential positive impacts of digitalization,AI,and robotics on productivity grow
283、th.The increasing integration of technology and automation in various industries has the potential to enhance efficiency,streamline processes and improve overall productiv-ity levels.As these advancements evolve and mature,they are expected to contribute to long-term economic growth and development.
284、Embracing digitalization,AI and robotics can unlock new opportunities,reshape industries and drive innovation,further bolstering productivity in the years to come.This is a benefit that is likely to be seen more in advanced economies,rather than developing and emerging economies,at least at the begi
285、nning of the long-term period.Global GDP growth between 2022 and 2045 is expected to remain robust and increase at an average rate of 3%p.a.This is the same level as in the previous WOO edition and takes into account increasing global economic risks,and the uncertainties around high inflation and in
286、terest rates,rising debt levels and geopolitical tensions.Global growth to 2045 will be dominated by non-OECD countries(Table 1.5).This is in line with assumptions made in previous editions of the WOO.Even if the pace of GDP growth will slow slightly over the forecast period,these countries are expe
287、cted to grow by an average of 3.8%p.a.,due to improving labour productivity and an expanding working-age population.The growth dynamic for the entire forecasting period is expected to remain relatively consist-ent with the previous years WOO.Looking more closely at the OECD group of countries,econom
288、ic growth is forecast to average 1.6%p.a.between 2022 and 2045.OECD Americas is the fastest growing OECD region with a long-term growth rate of 2%p.a.This takes into account the effects of monetary tightening and increased inflation.While growth expectations are comparably low in the medium-term at
289、1.5%p.a.,rates in the periods 20282035 and 20352045 are expected to remain strong at levels of around 2.2%.This trend is supported by an increase in the size of the labour force as a result KEY ASSUMPTIONS31World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1Table 1.5Longterm ann
290、ual real GDP growth rate%p.a.Source:OPEC.20222028202820352035204520222045OECD Americas1.52.22.22.0OECD Europe1.41.51.11.3OECD Asia Pacific1.31.31.11.2OECD1.51.81.61.6Latin America1.92.21.81.9Middle East&Africa3.13.94.54.0India6.16.35.96.1China4.94.23.03.8Other Asia4.34.13.03.7OPEC3.03.13.23.1Russia1
291、.01.41.21.2Other Eurasia2.52.52.32.4NonOECD4.14.13.53.8World3.03.12.83.0of immigration to the US and,to some extent,Canada.Further upside may come from labour productivity growth.OECD Europe is expected to follow a similar pattern,with a slowdown in the dynamism of the economy.A drop in the populati
292、on,in general,and the labour force,in particular,supports this trend.While the conflict in Eastern Europe mainly affects the short-term outlook,rising inflation,interest rate increases and demographic challenges are expected to limit growth potential to 1.5%over the period 20282035,which then falls
293、to 1.1%in the last decade of the outlook.The average annual growth rate over the forecast period is 1.3%,only slightly above the growth rate for OECD Asia-Pacific.In OECD Asia-Pacific,a deceleration of economic growth over time is expected.The strongest growth in this region is projected for the per
294、iod 20222035 at an average annual rate of 1.3%.A shrinking labour force,due to an ageing population,and the projected economic maturation in China,the regions main trading partner,drive the economic growth slowdown.Growth is set to drop to an average of 1.1%p.a.in the last decade of the forecast per
295、iod,resulting in an average growth rate of 1.2%over the entire forecast period.In non-OECD regions,the Middle East&Africa,OPEC and Other Asia are expected to show accelerating long-term growth trends,with similar or even higher growth rates than China in the 20352045 period.Latin America is expected
296、 to see ongoing support from commodity markets and an expand-ing young population in most economies.However,the regions economy may face downward pressure due to sluggish employment growth and limited productivity gains.CHAPTER ONE32World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Count
297、riesDespite the countrys robust economic fundamentals,Brazils long-term trend growth faces limitations due to insufficient domestic savings and a significant debt burden,which may require continual fiscal consolidation.The country will also likely encounter the challenge of a shrinking working-age p
298、opulation.From a structural perspective,the trend growth would benefit from the implementation of more ambitious reforms aimed at improving infrastruc-ture,facilitating the ease of doing business and further developing its financial markets.Elsewhere in Latin America,Argentina is grappling with pers
299、istent structural issues,includ-ing high debt,a significant fiscal deficit and intense inflationary pressures.Comprehensive reforms are crucial to address Argentinas weak macroeconomic fundamentals and stimulate the necessary investment to drive structural economic diversification,capital accumulati
300、on,and productivity.By implementing these reforms,Argentina has the potential to overcome the obstacles it faces and create a more favourable environment for sustainable and inclu-sive economic long-term growth.Latin America is projected to experience relatively higher growth in the early years of t
301、he forecast period,resulting in an average annual growth rate of 1.9%over the entire period.In the Middle East&Africa,growth is estimated to average 4%p.a.A young and expanding population and rising income levels,as more people enter the middle class,are expected to benefit the region and provide ad
302、ditional consumption abilities.As global growth picks up,the region should also benefit from support from commodity markets.Moreover,structural and economic reforms in less productive economies could provide further growth potential.These reforms would enhance economic complexity,improve competitive
303、ness and increase labour participation.By diversifying their economies,focusing more on non-energy sectors,and prioritizing productivity improvements,these countries can boost their economic resil-ience.In turn,this would contribute to an increase in savings and investments,and help establish them a
304、s manufacturing hubs.However,rising debt levels,especially in low-income countries,pose a downside risk.China is anticipated to be the second fastest growing major economy,averaging 3.8%p.a.over the projection period.This steady momentum in the economic forecast is an outcome of the countrys ageing
305、population and a maturing stage of domestic economic develop-ment that has moved onto a path of slowing growth.Chinas growth pattern has become more volatile in the last few years,but it is expected to return to a more stable dynamic in the long-term.Considering the governments successful track reco
306、rd in driving economic development,China is expected to continue to support economic development,if needed.This approach is anticipated to provide support to China during its ongoing transition phase,with a focus on achieving high-quality sustainable growth,and hence,ensuring stability.Key priori-ti
307、es for the country include boosting domestic and external demand,promoting techno-logical innovation,and effectively managing economic risks.Nonetheless,this transition is expected to be accompanied by various challenges related to addressing existing struc-tural bottlenecks.It is also important to
308、note that while population growth has played a role in Chinas economic development,the expansion of human resources,characterized by a well-educated and healthy population,is the primary catalyst for sustained development.As China contin-ues to invest in education and healthcare,its population is ex
309、pected to become increasingly productive.KEY ASSUMPTIONS33World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1India is forecast to continue to be the fastest growing major non-OECD country,with an aver-age growth rate of 6.1%p.a.Growth is expected to be strongest between 2028 and
310、 2035,as the country benefits from a young and dynamic population,a growing middle class and con-tinued,albeit reduced,fiscal stimulus.Despite notable prominence in selected sectors,such as IT and pharmaceuticals,India faces several structural,social,and political challenges that hinder its potentia
311、l for accelerated growth.Addressing these challenges could significantly bolster the countrys resilience and,subsequently,advance its growth potential.The current assumption is that the implementa-tion of structural reforms will likely be gradual,resulting in moderate productivity enhance-ments.At t
312、he end of the projection period,the Indian economy is expected to mature,with growth slowing to 5.9%p.a.for the 20352045 period.Long-term economic growth in Other Asia is at 3.7%p.a.Growth momentum peaks at 4.3%in the period 20222028,but the general growth trend is well maintained leading to an expa
313、n-sion rate of 3%in the last decade of the projection period.The growth trend in many countries is expected to be impacted by less favourable demographics,despite the improving pros-pects for productivity.Additionally,there is a need for improvements in institutions to sup-port and enhance the growt
314、h potential effectively.Russia is currently impacted by sanctions and a recent economic downturn.The country is expected to overcome these challenges and recover relatively well over the long-term.As already mentioned,however,the demographic trend is anticipated to be unfavourable,with a decline in
315、the working-age population.Over the long-term,the countrys declining population is set to be the main factor preventing growth from rising significantly above the modest long-term average of around 1.2%,especially if no further structural reforms are implemented.Nonetheless,labour productivity gains
316、 have the potential to offset this demographic development.Economic growth in Russia is expected to rise by 1.4%p.a.in the period 20282035,after relatively tepid medium-term growth of 1%.Developments in commodity markets,especially oil and gas,will play an important role in Russias growth trajectory
317、.In this context,it is important to note that Russia is a country with a rich history of economic transformations.With benefits from vast resources,a skilled workforce,and a high potential for technological advancements,Russia has the opportunity to capitalize on these strengths and chart a new econ
318、omic growth path through the implementation of structural reforms.Long-term economic growth in Other Eurasia is expected to average 2.4%p.a.,supported by a slight increase in the working-age population.The expected increase in size of the worlds major economies(Figure 1.5)means that global GDP is pr
319、ojected to almost double,from around$138 trillion in 2022 to$270 trillion in 2045,based on 2017 PPP.Figure 1.6 indicates that significantly higher growth rates in non-OECD regions lead to a shift in the regional distribution of GDP over the forecast period.China and India are expected to increase th
320、eir share of global GDP from 26%in 2022 to 37%in 2045.In contrast,the share of OECD countries will decline from 46%to 34%.India is projected to nearly quadruple in size,adding about$29 trillion to its economy,while China is projected to grow by about 2.4 times,adding over$35 trillion to global GDP.B
321、y CHAPTER ONE34World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesSource:OPEC.OECD AmericasOECD EuropeOECD Asia-PacificChinaOther AsiaIndiaOPECRest of the World3246%34%Non-OECDOECD54%66%Figure 1.6Distribution of the global economy,2022 and 2045%So
322、urce:OPEC.Figure 1.5Size of major economies,20304050607020030203520402045$(2017 PPP)trillionOECD EuropeOECD AmericasOECD Asia-PacificIndiaChinaOther AsiaOPECRest of the Worldcomparison,an addition of$28 trillion of GDP is anticipated for the OECD.The OPEC Member Country groupin
323、g is expected to double its economic size over the forecast period,adding$6.6 trillion to global GDP.Although growth rates are uneven across regions,the global economic picture shows no sig-nificant changes in the ranking of average incomes(as measured by GDP per capita).OECD Americas is projected t
324、o continue to be the region with the highest GDP per capita,followed by OECD Europe and OECD Asia-Pacific.KEY ASSUMPTIONS35World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries1The global average income is projected to rise from just over$17,000(2017 PPP)in 2022 to over$28,000(2017
325、 PPP)in 2045.The Middle East&Africa will still have the lowest GDP per capita,as shown in Figure 1.7,despite an increase in GDP per capita of more than 50%.With India forecast to exceed an average income of$20,000(2017 PPP)in the long-term,the Middle East&Africa is set to be the only remaining regio
326、n with an average income below$10,000(2017 PPP)in 2045.India and China are expected to experience the largest changes,with average income Chinas nar-rowing the gap with OECD countries and overtaking Russias GDP per capita levels.Figure 1.7Real GDP per capita in 2022 and 2045Source:OPEC.010,00020,000
327、30,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000$(2017 PPP)Growth 20222045GDP per capita in 2022WorldOECDAmericasOECDEuropeOECDAsia-PacificLatin AmericaIndiaChinaOtherAsiaOPECRussiaMiddleEast&AfricaOtherEurasia1.3 Energy policiesDevelopments in recent years have shown that the energy-and climate-related challen
328、ges the world faces are enormous and complex.This has been evidenced by the strains and conflicts related to energy affordability,energy security,and the need to reduce emissions playing out in regions across the world.There is now more talk of the energy sustainabil-ity trilemma,evidenced in many c
329、ountries recently publically recognizing the need for more investments in oil and gas projects going forward.The Reference Case used throughout the WOO assumes a gradual evolution of energy policy,targeting those areas described in this section.Therefore,a critical assessment of specific policy targ
330、ets is performed based on available technology options,cost developments,trends in competition and levels of energy-related investment.As a result,the Reference Case adopts most of the specific targets already included in national legislation and Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)to the exten
331、t they are technically and financially viable.However,and to be more realistic,it does not go as far as to include the achievement of net-zero policy targets within the forecast period.Similarly,the ambitious targets of switching sales of passenger vehicles to electric vehicles(EVs),are not expected
332、 to be fully realized.CHAPTER ONE36World Oil Outlook 2023Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesNonetheless,considerable improvements in energy efficiency are expected,as is a significant share of renewable energy sources in the future energy mix,and a substantial penetration of EVs,especi
333、ally in Europe,China and the US.Furthermore,a temporary focus on energy secu-rity over the next few years is anticipated,before a general focus shift to emissions and cli-mate change in the latter part of the forecast period.Geopolitical tensions pose enormous challenges,particularly for developing countries,which have to contend with energy security and economic issues more than ever before,in ad