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1、 Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司,海通证券印度私人有限公司,海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明,重要披露声明和免责声明,请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)研究报告 Research Report 9 Jan 2023 思维列控思维列控 T
2、hinker Automatic Equipment(603508 CH)首次覆盖:列车控制领域龙头,产品进入更新周期 Leader in Automatic Train Control,Products Entering Renewal Cycle:Initiation Table_Info 首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb17.30 目标价 Rmb23.63 市值 Rmb6.60bn/US$0.96bn 日交易额(3 个月均值)US$8.02mn 发行股票数目 381.27mn 自由流通股(
3、%)46%1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb17.44-Rmb11.30 注:现价 Rmb17.30 为 2023 年 1 月 5 日收盘价 资料来源:Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 17.1%49.9%7.6%绝对值(美元)19.9%54.7%-0.3%相对 MSCI China 7.1%30.5%25.6%Table_Profit (Rmb mn)Dec-21A Dec-22E Dec-23E Dec-24E 营业收入 1,064 1,110 1,392 1,672(+/-)26%4%25%20%净利润 385 347 450 549(+/-)167%-10%30%22%
4、全面摊薄 EPS(Rmb)1.01 0.91 1.18 1.44 毛利率 61.0%60.4%60.9%61.3%净资产收益率 9.2%8.0%9.4%10.3%市盈率 17 19 15 12 资料来源:公司信息,HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary)列车控制领域龙头企业。列车控制领域龙头企业。思维列控创立于 1992 年,是专业从事铁路运输安全保障技术研究、应用软件开发的铁路装备定点企业。公司主营业务涉及普速铁路和高速铁路两大领域,主要包括列车运行控制、铁路安全防护、高速铁路运行监测与信息管理三大业务。目前,公司形成了多功能、多种类的产
5、品体系和专业化、综合化的行车安全保障产品提供能力,是国内少有的能够同时满足客户对列车运行安全控制、机车状态监测、行车安全管理及信息化需求的整体解决方案提供商。高铁相关业务收入受出行减少影响有所下降,核心列控业务收入高铁相关业务收入受出行减少影响有所下降,核心列控业务收入稳健增长,铁路安防业务收入快速增长。稳健增长,铁路安防业务收入快速增长。2022 年上半年,我国铁路发送旅客 7.59 亿人,同比下降 42.7%。受此影响,上半年客户对动车组及配套车载设备需求下降,导致公司高铁相关业务收入出现明显下滑。分产品方面,2022 年上半年,公司核心列控业务持续取得市场突破,公司 LKJ 市场占有率突
6、破 50%,LKJ 系统订单实现了平稳增长,公司 LKJ 系统实现营收 2.52 亿元,同比增长39.44%,占公司总营收比例达到 61.19%。形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系,并在高铁安全监测领形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系,并在高铁安全监测领域具备先发优势和核心地位。域具备先发优势和核心地位。公司形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系。经过近三十年发展,公司 LKJ 系统已成为我国车载列车运行安全控制的核心装备。同时,公司多次参与国铁集团车载信息化项目的研发,先后研制了 6A 车载音视频显示终端、CMD 系统车载子系统、机车车联网系统、调车防护系统(LSP)等产品。存量产品更新周
7、期启动,疫情影响消退,带来增长机遇。存量产品更新周期启动,疫情影响消退,带来增长机遇。我们认为,伴随存量产品陆续达到更新年限、进入更新周期,产品升级换型需求为公司带来增长机遇。另一方面,疫情防控措施优化调整后,民众出行有望不断恢复,进而使得轨道交通设备采购、更新需求持续增长,公司业绩或迅速恢复。盈利预测与投资建议。盈利预测与投资建议。我们认为,公司作为中电科数字化转型中坚,紧抓信创与政务大数据发展机遇,目前在这些业务领域已经拥有了一定的领先优势,未来随着自主可控领域的持续发展,公司也有望维持较高的增长速度。整体来看,我们预计公司2022/2023/2024 归母净利润分别为 3.47/4.50
8、/5.49 亿元,EPS 分别为 0.91/1.18/1.44 元,参考可比公司,给予 2023 年动态 PE20 倍,对应目标价格为 23.63 元,首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。风险提示。风险提示。政策推进不及预期,行业竞争加剧的风险。Table_Author 郑宏达郑宏达 Nathan Zheng 杨林杨林 Lin Yang 纪兴纪兴 Xing Ji 557085100115Price ReturnMSCI ChinaJan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23Volume 9 Jan 2023 2 Table_header2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优
9、于大市 列车控制领域龙头企业列车控制领域龙头企业 思维列控创立于 1992 年,是专业从事铁路运输安全保障技术研究、应用软件开发的铁路装备定点企业。公司自主研发的以防超速、防冒进著称的 LKJ 系列列车运行控制系统,服务于铁路列车安全控制、列车运行安全管理、列车运行安全信息化建设等方面,为历次全国铁路大提速、保障铁路运输事业的飞速发展做出了突出贡献。公司是国家高技术产业化示范工程企业、国家规划布局内重点软件企业、国家火炬计划软件产业基地骨干企业、河南省列车控制工程技术研究中心。截至 2021 年末,公司已取得专利 420 项、计算机软件著作权 777 项、参与制定行业标准 6 项、铁路技术规章
10、 8 项,核心产品 LKJ 列控系统已在全国铁路 2.2 万余台机车和数千列动车组上普及应用,并成为我国高铁综合监测领域的核心供应商。公司主营业务涉及普速公司主营业务涉及普速铁路和高速铁路两大领域,主要包括列车运行控制、铁路安全防护、高速铁路运行铁路和高速铁路两大领域,主要包括列车运行控制、铁路安全防护、高速铁路运行监测与信息管理三大业务。监测与信息管理三大业务。目前,公司形成了多功能、多种类的产品体系和专业化、综合化的行车安全保障产品提供能力,是国内少有的能够同时满足客户对列车运行安全控制、机车状态监测、行车安全管理及信息化需求的整体解决方案提供商。图图 1.公司股权结构公司股权结构 资料来
11、源:Wind,HTI 郭洁、王卫平、李欣签署了一致行动协议,系一致行动人以及公司实际控制人。20.39%14.27%12.73%11.06%4.59%2.09%0.48%0.39%0.29%0.25%33.46%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%郭洁王卫平赵建州李欣远望谷河南浩鹏嘉航信息张仟上海呈瑞投资管理有限公司香港中央結算有限公司农业银行其他公司股权结构0VoW9XhUcXqRzRsQ9P9R6MoMqQmOnOkPqQrQeRrQoO7NmNmMwMpPuMwMtOzQ 9 Jan 2023 3 Table_heade
12、r2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 高铁相关业务收入受出行减少影响有所下降,核心列控业务收入稳健高铁相关业务收入受出行减少影响有所下降,核心列控业务收入稳健增长,铁路安防业务收入快速增长增长,铁路安防业务收入快速增长 2022 年上半年,我国铁路发送旅客 7.59 亿人,同比下降 42.7%。受此影响,上半年客户对动车组及配套车载设备需求下降,导致公司高铁相关业务收入出现明显下滑。2022 年公司前三季度实现营收 6.17 亿元,同比下降 11.64%;实现归母净利润1.94 亿元,同比下降 25.90%,一方面由于营收同比下降,另一方面是公司加大研发投入所致
13、;实现扣非归母净利润 1.90 亿元,同比下降 24.32%。2021 年全年实现营收 10.64 亿元,同比增长 26.19%;归母净利润 3.85 亿元,同比增长 167.12%;扣非归母净利润 3.68 亿元;同比增长 161.81%。分产品方面分产品方面,2022 年上半年,公司核心列控业务持续取得市场突破,公司 LKJ 市场占有率突破 50%,公司积极参与铁路客户招标,着力推动存量 LKJ 系统到期更换工作,LKJ 系统订单实现了平稳增长,公司LKJ 系统实现营收 2.52 亿元,同比增长 39.44%,占公司总营收比例达到 61.19%;运行列车安全监测系统实现营收 0.77 亿元
14、,同比下降 72.13%;铁路安防业务收入快速增长,机务安防系统实现营收 0.70 亿元,同比增长 149.11%。2022 年前三季度公司毛利率 58.09%,下降 2.04pct,前三季度销售费用率 6.26%,管理费用率 9.40%,研发费用率 16.06%,三费率分别上升 1.77pct、1.41pct 和 4.05pct。2022 年上半年,公司投入研发费用 6510.59 万元,占公司当期营业收入的 15.83%,着力新产品推广。形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系,并在高铁安全监测领域具形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系,并在高铁安全监测领域具备先发优势和核心地位备先发优势和核
15、心地位 公司形成了以列控为核心的行车安全产品体系。经过近三十年发展,公司 LKJ 系统已成为我国车载列车运行安全控制的核心装备。同时,公司多次参与国铁集团车载信息化项目的研发,先后研制了 6A 车载音视频显示终端、CMD 系统车载子系统、机车车联网系统、调车防护系统(LSP)等产品。以 LKJ 系统为基础,公司主要产品之间形成了紧密的协同效应。在高铁安全监测领域,公司具有先发优势和核心地位优势。子公司蓝信科技(公司持股 100%)是我国动车组列控设备动态监测系统(DMS系统)、动车组司机操控信息分析系统(EOAS系统)等产品的核心供应商。凭借产品的先发优势和技术积累,蓝信科技 DMS 系统、E
16、OAS 系统已基本覆盖我国动车组,并形成覆盖全部动车组的车载设备及覆盖国铁集团地面数据中心、18 个铁路局地面数据中心的车地数据传输架构体系。存量产品更新周期启动,疫情影响消退,带来增长机遇存量产品更新周期启动,疫情影响消退,带来增长机遇 列控业务方面列控业务方面,随着 LKJ 技术水平提升、功能完善,公司第四代 LKJ 列控系统LKJ-15S 系统已开始小批量推广。LKJ-15S 系统将实现对既有 LKJ2000 型列控系统的升级换代,并持续适应我国列控技术的发展。目前,相关车载设备的使用寿命为 8 至10 年。随着 LKJ2000 使用年限增长,各铁路局用户投入运用的 LKJ2000 产品
17、已进入更新周期,近两年 LKJ2000 及配套产品的更新数量呈上升趋势。铁路安防业务方。铁路安防业务方面面,2007 年以来,我国大功率和谐号机车开始批量替代淘汰老旧机车。随着相关车载设备使用年限增长,机车上运用的 6A 车载音视频显示终端、CDM 系统等铁路安防系统产品开始进入更新周期。2022 年上半年,公司 6A、CDM 系统等铁路安防系统产品更新、维护订单保持增长态势。其中,公司控股子公司思维信息(公司持股75.24%)上半年实现营业收入 0.79 亿元,同比增长 328.56%,实现净利润 0.17 亿元,同比增长 298.06%。高铁列车运行监测与信息管理业务方面。高铁列车运行监测
18、与信息管理业务方面,根据CTCS-2/3级列控车载设备维护管理办法动车组司机操控信息分析系统(EOAS)运用维护管理规则等规定,DMS 系统、EOAS 系统等监测系统的更新换代周期通常为 10年。2008 年以来,我国动车组保有量快速增长,近十年来平均每年新增动车组超300 标准组,动车组保有量从 2008 年末的 176 列增加至 2021 年末的 4153 标准组。9 Jan 2023 4 Table_header2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 目前,我国动车组 DMS 系统已逐步达到更新年限,产品更新或升级换型需求有待释放。我们认为,伴随存量产品陆续。
19、我们认为,伴随存量产品陆续达到更新年限、进入更新周期,产品升级换型需达到更新年限、进入更新周期,产品升级换型需求为公司带来增长机遇。求为公司带来增长机遇。另一方面,11 月 11 日,卫健委发布关于进一步优化新冠肺炎疫情防控措施 科学精准做好防控工作的通知;12 月 7 日,国务院联防联控机制公布关于进一步优化落实新冠肺炎疫情防控措施的通知。根据中国旅游报官微,优化调整后的疫情防控措施有望进一步释放民众旅游需求,促进旅游业恢复发展。我们认为,疫情防控措施优化调整后,民众出行有望不断恢复,进而使得轨。我们认为,疫情防控措施优化调整后,民众出行有望不断恢复,进而使得轨道交通设备采购、更新需求持续增
20、长,公司业绩或迅速恢复。道交通设备采购、更新需求持续增长,公司业绩或迅速恢复。盈利预测与投资建议盈利预测与投资建议 我们认为,公司作为中电科数字化转型中坚,紧抓信创与政务大数据发展机遇,目前在这些业务领域已经拥有了一定的领先优势,未来随着自主可控领域的持续发展,公司也有望维持较高的增长速度。我们假设:1)列车运行控制系统业务方面,受益于系统更新换代需求和疫情管控放松背景下的铁路客运量回暖,公司作为业内的领军企业有望实现该业务的持续稳定增长,我们预计 2022-2024 年公司列车运行控制系统业务同比增速分别为 30%、15%和 10%。2)铁路安全防护系统业务方面,同样有望受益于系统更新换代需
21、求和铁路客运量回暖,我们预计公司铁路安全防护系统业务 2022-2024 年同比增速分别为 120%、40%和 30%。3)高速铁路列车运行监测系统业务方面,受 2022H1 铁路客运量下降 42.7%影响,客户采购高铁列车及配套设备减缓,造成该业务收入下降明显,我们预计该业务 2022 年营收同比下降60%,但是随着疫情管控逐渐放开,铁路客运量有望持续增长,该业务有望快速恢复,我们预计高速铁路列车运行监测系统业务 2023-2024 年同比增速分别为 35%和30%。整体来看,我们预计公司 2022/2023/2024 归母净利润分别为 3.47/4.50/5.49 亿元,EPS 分别为 0
22、.91/1.18/1.44 元,参考可比公司估值,给予 2023 年动态 PE20 倍,对应目标价格为 23.63 元,首次覆盖给予“优于大市”评级。风险提示风险提示 政策推进不及预期,行业竞争加剧的风险。9 Jan 2023 5 Table_header2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 表表 1 可比公司估值表可比公司估值表 EPS(元)(元)PE(倍)(倍)证券简称证券简称 证券代码证券代码 股价股价(元)(元)市值市值(亿亿元)元)2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 金溢科技 002869.SZ 25.0 44.82-1.
23、08 0.07 1.00-23.1 373.7 24.9 交控科技 688015.SH 26.2 49.15 1.75 1.37 1.59 14.9 19.0 16.4 平均平均 -1.08 0.07 1.00-4.1 196.3 20.7 资料来源:Wind,HTI 注:公司采用 Wind 一致预期,股价为 2022 年 1 月 5 日收盘价 表表 2 公司业务分拆(百万元)公司业务分拆(百万元)2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 列车运行控制系统 营收 432.21 561.87 646.15 710.77 同比(%)-1.63 30.00 15.00 10.00 毛利率(%)6
24、1.53 62.00 62.00 62.00 速铁路列车运行监测系统 营收 447.34 178.94 241.56 314.03 同比(%)61.51-60.00 35.00 30.00 毛利率(%)64.75 65.00 65.50 66.00 铁路安全防护系统 营收 152.07 334.55 468.38 608.89 同比(%)49.85 120.00 40.00 30.00 毛利率(%)57.21 60.00 60.50 61.00 其他业务 营收 32.88 34.52 36.25 38.06 同比(%)27.73 5.00 5.00 5.00 毛利率(%)19.83 15.00
25、 15.00 15.00 总营收总营收 营收 1064.50 1109.89 1392.34 1671.75 同比(%)26.19 4.26 25.45 20.07 毛利率(%)60.98 60.42 60.88 61.32 资料来源:Wind,HTI 9 Jan 2023 6 Table_header2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 财务报表分析和预测财务报表分析和预测 Table_ForecastInfo 主要财务指标主要财务指标 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 利润表(百万元)利润表(百万元)2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 每
26、股指标(元)每股指标(元)营业总收入营业总收入 1064 1110 1392 1672 每股收益 1.01 0.91 1.18 1.44 营业成本 415 439 545 647 每股净资产 15.46 11.34 12.53 13.97 毛利率%61.0%60.4%60.9%61.3%每股经营现金流 0.24 1.92-0.56 2.63 营业税金及附加 14 19 22 26 每股股利 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 营业税金率%1.4%1.7%1.6%1.5%价值评估(倍)价值评估(倍)营业费用 54 72 84 92 P/E 17.11 19.02 14.64 12.02 营业
27、费用率%5.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%P/B 1.12 1.52 1.38 1.24 管理费用 91 133 160 167 P/S 4.43 5.94 4.74 3.95 管理费用率%8.5%12.0%11.5%10.0%EV/EBITDA 10.62 12.79 10.71 6.98 EBIT 403 324 422 540 股息率%4.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%财务费用-52-44-55-46 盈利能力指标(盈利能力指标(%)财务费用率%-4.9%-3.9%-3.9%-2.7%毛利率 61.0%60.4%60.9%61.3%资产减值损失 0 0 0 0 净利润率 36.2%31.2%
28、32.4%32.8%投资收益 8 8 9 12 净资产收益率 9.2%8.0%9.4%10.3%营业利润营业利润 463 376 486 597 资产回报率 8.3%7.2%8.3%9.2%营业外收支-1-1-1-1 投资回报率 8.0%6.9%8.1%9.3%利润总额利润总额 462 375 485 596 盈利增长(盈利增长(%)EBITDA 452 373 474 594 营业收入增长率 26.2%4.3%25.4%20.1%所得税 67 26 34 42 EBIT 增长率 39.0%-19.5%30.1%27.8%有效所得税率%14.6%7.0%7.0%7.0%净利润增长率 167.1
29、%-10.0%29.9%21.8%少数股东损益 9 2 1 5 偿债能力指标偿债能力指标 归属母公司所有者净利润归属母公司所有者净利润 385 347 450 549 资产负债率 7.5%9.0%10.4%9.7%流动比率 7.72 6.56 6.05 6.85 速动比率 6.75 5.35 5.05 5.70 资产负债表(百万元)资产负债表(百万元)2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 现金比率 4.31 4.28 2.74 4.27 货币资金 1460 1823 1522 2451 经营效率指标经营效率指标 应收账款及应收票据 680 224 979 492 应收账款周转天数 16
30、3.45 141.70 150.68 151.94 存货 306 476 501 594 存货周转天数 270.66 320.62 322.88 304.72 其它流动资产 168 269 358 396 总资产周转率 0.24 0.23 0.27 0.29 流动资产合计 2613 2792 3360 3932 固定资产周转率 4.82 5.44 7.38 9.65 长期股权投资 0 0 0 0 固定资产 212 196 181 166 在建工程 69 116 150 171 无形资产 86 76 66 56 现金流量表(百万元)现金流量表(百万元)2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
31、 非流动资产合计 2016 2042 2056 2056 净利润 385 347 450 549 资产总计资产总计 4630 4834 5415 5988 少数股东损益 9 2 1 5 短期借款 0 0 0 0 非现金支出 72 49 52 55 应付票据及应付账款 131 141 204 196 非经营收益-58-7-8-11 预收账款 0 0 0 0 营运资金变动-343 341-708 405 其它流动负债 207 284 351 378 经营活动现金流经营活动现金流 65 732-214 1003 流动负债合计 339 426 556 574 资产-41-71-61-51 长期借款 0
32、 0 0 0 投资 18-75-35-35 其它长期负债 8 8 8 8 其他 58 8 9 12 非流动负债合计 8 8 8 8 投资活动现金流投资活动现金流 36-138-87-74 负债总计负债总计 347 434 564 582 债权募资 0 0 0 0 实收资本 272 381 381 381 股权募资 0 0 0 0 归属于母公司所有者权益 4210 4325 4776 5325 其他-90-231 0 0 少数股东权益 73 75 76 81 融资活动现金流融资活动现金流-90-231 0 0 负债和所有者权益合计负债和所有者权益合计 4630 4834 5415 5988 现金
33、净流量现金净流量 11 363-301 928 备注:(1)表中计算估值指标的收盘价日期为 01 月 05 日;(2)以上各表均为简表 资料来源:公司年报(2021),HTI 9 Jan 2023 7 Table_header2 思维列控(603508 CH)首次覆盖优于大市首次覆盖优于大市 APPENDIX 1 Summary The leading enterprise in the field of train control.Founded in 1992,Civic Train Control is a designated railroad equipment enterprise
34、 specializing in railroad transportation safety and security technology research and application software development.The companys main business involves two major fields:general speed railroad and high-speed railroad,mainly including train operation control,railroad safety protection,high-speed rai
35、lroad operation monitoring and information management.At present,the company has formed a multi-functional and multi-category product system and specialized and comprehensive ability to provide traffic safety protection products and is one of the few domestic total solution providers that can meet c
36、ustomers needs for train operation safety control,locomotive condition monitoring,traffic safety management and informationization at the same time.High-speed rail-related business revenue declined due to reduced travel,core train control business revenue grew steadily,and railroad security business
37、 revenue grew rapidly.2022 In the first half of the year,Chinas railroads sent 759 million passengers,down 42.7%YoY.As a result,customer demand for rolling stock and supporting on-board equipment declined in the first half of the year,resulting in a significant decline in revenue from the companys h
38、igh-speed rail-related business.By product,in the first half of 2022,the companys core train control business continued to achieve market breakthroughs,the companys LKJ market share exceeded 50%,LKJ system orders achieved steady growth,the companys LKJ system achieved revenue of Rmb252mn,an increase
39、 of 39.44%YoY,accounting for 61.19%of the companys total revenue.The company has formed a train safety product system with train control as the core and has the first-mover advantage and core position in the field of high-speed railway safety monitoring.The company has formed a train safety product
40、system with column control as the core.After nearly three decades of development,the companys LKJ system has become the core equipment of Chinas on-board train operation safety control.At the same time,the company has participated in the research and development of the on-board information project o
41、f the National Railway Group for many times and has developed 6A on-board audio and video display terminal,CMD system on-board sub-system,locomotive networking system,shunting protection system(LSP)and other products.The renewal cycle of stock products starts,and the impact of the epidemic subsides,
42、bringing growth opportunities.In our opinion,as the stock of products reach the renewal age and enter the renewal cycle,the demand for product upgrade brings growth opportunities for the company.On the other hand,after the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control measures,p
43、eoples travel is expected to continue to recover,which in turn makes the procurement and renewal demand for rail transportation equipment continue to grow,and the companys performance may recover rapidly.Earnings forecast and investment advice.We believe that the company,as the backbone of CECs digi
44、tal transformation,grasps the development opportunities of Cintron and government big data,and now has a certain leading edge in these business areas,and is also expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future with the continued development of the independent controllable field.Overall,we esti
45、mate the companys 2022/2023/2024 NP to be Rmb347/450/549mn,EPS to be Rmb0.91/1.18/1.44,respectively.Compared with peers,we value the company with 20 x 2023e PE,corresponding to a target price of Rmb23.63.We initiate with an Outperform rating.Risks:policy advancement is not as expected and industry c
46、ompetition intensifies.8 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销,海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL),Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌,海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSUR
47、ES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company L
48、imited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我,郑宏达,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有
49、任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Nathan Zheng,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation wa
50、s,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我,杨林,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有
51、目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Lin Yang,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no pa
52、rt of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我,纪兴,在此保证(i)本研究报告
53、中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Xing Ji,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in thi
54、s research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies disc
55、ussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言,以下是有关该等关系的披露事项(以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏,如需了解及时全面信息,请发邮件至ERD-D)HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of cert
56、ain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive informat
57、ion is needed).601288.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。601288.CH is/was a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.海通担任601288.CH有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity pr
58、ovider in the securities of 601288.CH.9 评级定义评级定义(从(从2020年年7月月1日开始执行)日开始执行):海通国际(以下简称“HTI”)采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司:优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息,投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下,分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况(比如投资者的现有持仓)以及其他因素。分析师股票分析师股票评级评级 优于大市优于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中
59、性中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform,Ne
60、utral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views,investors sh
61、ould carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(such as th
62、e investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected
63、 to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return
64、of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年9月月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市
65、中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.2%1.4%投资银行客户*5.5%6.8%4.5%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入,中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市,中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则,我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义(直至此前的评级系统定义(直至2020年年6月月30日):日):买入,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 中性,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大,基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE
66、的评级分布规则,我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出,未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上,基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数:日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.10 Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Sep 30,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4%9.2%1.4%IB client
67、s*5.5%6.8%4.5%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rati
68、ng category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTR
69、AL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:The stocks total return over
70、the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际非评级研究:海通国际非评级研究:海通国际发布计量、筛选
71、或短篇报告,并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值,而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on poss
72、ible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖:海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券(600837.CH),海通国际于上海的母公司,也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是,海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统,所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Ha
73、itong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai,covers and publishes research on these
74、same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股(Q100)指数指数:海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过
75、程,并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in co
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