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1、2023年手机、NB、伺服器供应链趋势及市场展望影响2022、2023年IT消费因素分析411月美国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)跌破50大关显示景气展望保守服务业PMI亦继续下探47.645505560Jul-22Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22数据源:S&P,2022/1120222023年经济情势及影响战事、疫情封控、通膨/升息、汇率供应链冲击库存调整消费力与零售通膨等因素生活成本提高近期中美零售数据解析企业IT支出北美CSP营运仍佳企业IT支出趋保守产品更换周期拉长4预期2023年下半美国通膨问题
2、将舒缓人力薪资成本汽车等商品房屋租金能源通膨因素聘雇热度降低战事影响降低二手车价格异常不再朝舒缓方向发展2023年动向5全球智能手机2022年出货及2023年预测全球智能手机出货将呈现连6季年衰退单位:百万支1Q214Q22全球智能手机各季出货变化-20%0%20%40%60%001Q21出货量344.22Q21277.43Q21320.64Q21375.01Q22303.52Q22274.13Q22276.54Q22(e)321.8年增率49.5%1.4%-6.2%-5.8%-11.8%-1.2%-13.8%-14.2%数据源:DIGITIMES Research,20
3、22/117中国大陆及中国大陆以外智能手机市场2H22出货皆有两位数年衰退-50%0%50%100%300.0200.0100.00.0400.0中国市场1Q2194.62Q2172.23Q2173.54Q2181.41Q2266.82Q2264.23Q2259.14Q22(e)65.1中国以外249.6205.2247.1293.6236.7209.9217.4256.7中国市场YoY99.6%-25.5%1.0%-6.1%-29.3%-11.1%-19.6%-20.1%中国以外YoY36.6%16.2%-8.2%-5.7%-5.2%2.3%-12.0%-12.5%数据源:DIGITIMES
4、 Research,2022/11815%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%001Q23(f)2Q23(f)3Q23(f)4Q23(f)智能手机出货265280300355YoY-12.7%2.2%8.5%10.3%11全球智能手机出货2Q23起可望恢复成长单位:百万支345365高个位数至双位数260270275285290310高个位数至双位数低至中个位数双位数负成长高通膨及美国Fed升息渐走入尾声数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/11预估2023年多数主要品牌出货成长仅为个位数30%20%10%0%-10%-20%30025020015010
5、0500SamsungAppleOppoXiaomiVivoTranssionHonorOthers2022(e)265.4238.1146.2148.498.961.451.4166.12023(f)272.3241.2152.6150.5101.862.957.3163.9YoY2.6%1.3%4.4%1.4%2.9%2.4%11.5%-1.3%单位:百万支数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/11-2023年全球前七大智能能手机业者出货预估-预估2023年苹果疫情红利(20202022年)将不再25%20%15%10%5%0%-5001,0001,50020172018
6、20022(e)2023(f)智能手机出货1,4251,3951,3631,2431,3171,1761,203苹果市占15.1%14.8%14.7%17.4%18.2%20.2%20.1%单位:百万支数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/112023年智能手机出货仅个位数成长320.8255.2260.1996.4920.7942.41,4001,2001,000800600400200020212022(e)2023(f)单位:百万支1,317.2中国市场数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/11121,175.9中国以外市场占比7
7、8.4%占比21.6%1,202.5预估2023年中国以外市场占全球5G手机出货比重约7成单位:百万支253.2211.1223.9527.7020040060080020212022(e)2023(f)中国市场400.2占比:65.5%279.4占比:52.5%532.6611.3751.6数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1113中国以外市场占比:70.2%5G机款将占2027年智能手机近9成出货611.3数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1114751.6922.31,075.51,211.61,323.405001,000单位:百万支1,50
8、02022(e)2023(f)2024(f)2025(f)注:百分比数值为5G机种占全球智能能型手机出货量比重。2026(f)2027(f)52.0%62.5%70.5%77.6%84.3%89.1%全球笔记型电脑2022年出货及2023年预测18注:DIGITIMES Research将可拆卸式机种归类为Tablet,故在此NB出货量统计未计入该类产品。数据源:DIGITIMESResearch,2022/11需求持续哀退年减近4成20,000-40,00060,00080,000Shipments2Q2160,1673Q2162,0074Q2167,5781Q2254,4192Q2245,
9、9873Q2246,8554Q22(f)41,213QoQ4.6%3.1%9.0%-19.5%-15.5%1.9%-12.0%YoY16.0%10.5%7.3%-5.4%-23.6%-24.4%-39.0%4Q22将为全年最低一季全球各季NB出货量变化与预测单位:千台5,000010,00015,000Shipments1Q2110,1402Q2112,7003Q216,2754Q214,3601Q223,5202Q224,5843Q223,2374Q22(f)2,950QoQ-9.1%24.6%-50.6%-30.5%-19.3%30.2%-29.4%-8.9%YoY280.8%78.0%-
10、33.8%-60.9%-65.5%-63.9%-48.4%-32.3%单位:千台数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1117全球各季Chromebook出货量变化与预测4Q22全球Chromebook出货将再小幅季减单位:百万台27024029060300200021(e)2022(f)Shipments157.6149.1155.6152.3158.4200.8247.3188.5YoY-8.9%-5.4%4.3%-2.2%4.1%26.7%23.2%-23.8%全球历年NB出货量与成长率变化及预测数据源:
11、DIGITIMES Research,2022/1118低于前两年2022年全球NB出货预期衰退23.8%但仍高于pre-COVID2023年全球NB出货预期将再衰退6.3%单位:百万台27024029060300ShipmentsYoY数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1119-8.9%-5.4%4.3%-2.2%4.1%26.7%23.2%2000212022(e)2023(f)157.6149.1155.6152.3158.4200.8247.3188.5176.6-23.8%-6.3%全球历年NB出
12、货量与成长率变化及预测HPDellAppleAsusacerMSIOthers2021Le-Sam-Hua-Micro-novosungweisoft55.958.844.822.520.918.16.67.02.62.57.62022(e)46.240.332.722.917.910.03.86.12.72.16.238.331.323.217.110.13.86.02023(f)43.42023 YoY-6.1%数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1120-5.0%-4.3%1.3%-4.5%1.0%0.0%-1.6%-3.7%2.62.15.00.0%-19.4%主要
13、品牌历年NB出货量与成长率变化单60位50:40百30万台201002023品牌NB出货量预测多数业者将衰退中个位数地区:中国大陆产能占比:7585%地区:台湾产能占比:2%制程:打板为主ODM:仁宝、纬创、英业达地区:越南产能占比:1015%制程:打板+组装ODM:仁宝、三星、纬创、和硕、鸿海地区:印度产能占比:510%制程:组装 ODM:联宝EMS:纬创力、Dixon地区:泰国产能占比:5%制程:打板+组装ODM:广达数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/11212024年时越南将成为中国大陆以外最大NB生产地区全球伺服器2022年出货及2023年预测254Q22因中系业
14、者及品牌商需求疲弱将季减7.2%全球服务器各季出货量变化与预测注:本报告出货量以服务器主板数为估算基础。数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1130%20%10%0%-10%-20%-单位:千台4,0003,0002,0001,000出货量2Q214,1313Q214,4834Q214,6121Q224,4062Q224,5513Q224,7454Q22(e)4,401QoQ9.2%8.5%2.9%-4.5%3.3%4.3%-7.2%YoY-9.5%5.4%20.0%16.5%10.2%5.8%-4.6%262023年服务器出货预估企业因景气拉货保守网通基础建设IC长短料新
15、CPU放量美中科技战影响供给面分析需求面分析云端、HPC/AI应用预期云端需求仍为支撑出货成长主力,年增达4.%注:对出货影响是指与前年相较,表负面影响、表正面影响,星星数愈多,影响程度愈高。-影响2023年全球服务器出货关键因素分析27全球数据产生量大增推升云端高效能运算需求0.10.30.81.63.16.613.83055920单位:ZB200数据源:应用材料,2021728100%80%60%40%20%0%20022(e)2023(f)服务器品牌商52.1%50.9%47.7%46.5%45.3%云端数据中心37.6%38.3%43.1%4
16、6.0%47.5%其他10.3%10.8%9.2%7.5%7.2%2023年云端数据中心需求占全球服务器出货量比重将超越品牌商逼近4成8数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1129预期20222023全球服务器出货量维持年成长全球服务器出货量预测15,23815,06016,25517,00818,0809.5%-1.2%7.9%4.6%6.3%4.5%-5%0%5%10%18,89415%单位:千台20,00016,00012,0008,0004,0000202020212022(f)2023(f)20182019注:本报告出货量以服务器主板数为估算基础。数据源:DIGI
17、TIMES Research,2022/112023年亮点探索SamsungHuaweiOppoXiaomiOthersVivoHonorHuawei数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1129OthersSamsung2022年:18.3M约14M约2M2023年:27.8M1718M45M11.5M1-1.1M1-1.2M1M折迭屏幕手机出货2023年预估可成长约5成单位:百万支18.327.843.668.295.4128.71,00050001,5002,0002022(e)2023(f)2024(f)2025(f)2026(f)2027(f)Foldable Di
18、splay Smartphone ShipmentsNon-Foldable Display Smartphone Shipments数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1130折迭屏幕手机2027年出货挑战1.3亿支占整体智能手机比重逾8%单位:百万支18.327.860.4114.8148.6193.61,00050001,5002,0002022(e)2023(f)2024(f)2025(f)2026(f)2027(f)Foldable Display Smartphone ShipmentsNon-Foldable Display Smartphone Shipme
19、nts数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1131若苹果于2024年推出折迭屏幕手机预估2027年整体市场出货上限将挑战2亿支20222025年ARM NB出货CAGR将达9.2%2025年出货可破3,000万台20%15%10%5%0%40,00030,00020,00010,0000202020212022(e)2023(f)2024(f)2025(f)Windows NB2098366501,2802,8003,400Chromebook3753,0901,1201,2001,6002,300MacBook2,20015,67022,47123,00024,30025
20、,900ARM NB Total2,78419,59624,24125,48028,70031,600Total YoY1110.4%603.9%23.7%5.1%12.6%10.1%ARM NB Share1.4%7.9%12.7%13.9%15.1%15.5%单位:千台20202025年各类ARMNB出货量变化与预测资34料来源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/1135伺服器CPU出货量占有率预测100%80%60%40%20%0%202020212022(f)2023(f)2024(f)英特尔86.6%84.7%77.5%74.4%70.3%AMD10.1%11.2%15
21、.1%17.2%19.1%Arm架构2.6%3.5%6.8%7.9%10.1%其他0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%注:其他如IBM的Power CPU主采RISC架构,用于少数特定工作站主机、超级电脑等。预期AMD及Arm CPU持续扩大云端、HPC服务器市占数据源:DIGITIMES Research,2022/112023年产业及市场动向342023年下半美国通膨趋缓,三大供应链景气逐步迈向正常化。2023年笔电市场续衰退,2024年开始为新一波换机的起始点。产业/市场动向手机市场着重高阶区隔,大型云端服务业者带动全球伺服器需求。“中国+N”生产布局态势明显,伺服器、手机、NB产业脚步有差异产业及产品亮点亮点AMOLED手机、Foldable手机、快充、潜望式镜头、mmWaveArm NB、Arm服务器蓄势待发,AMD伺服器续扩大市占搭载GPU或AI加速器的伺服器出货仍将延续较高幅度成长率35Copyright DIGITIMES Inc.All Rights Reserved.THANK YOU