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1、A World Bank Group Flagship Report Global Economic Prospects JUNE 2020 Analytical Chapters EXCERPT Chapter 4 i Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil in the Pandemic .181 Introduction . 183 Drivers of the oil price plunge . 185 Comparison with previous periods of disruptions . 187 Implications of oil pr
2、ice plunges for the global economy . 188 Past oil price plunges . 188 The 2014-16 oil price plunge . 190 The 2020 oil price plunge . 192 Box 4.1 Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge . 193 Conclusions . 198 Annex 4.1 Methodology: Decomposition of oil price movements . 199 Annex 4.2 Oil price pl
3、unges since 1970 . 199 Annex 4.3 Methodology: Impact of oil price plunges on output . 200 References . 201 Table of Contents Chapter 3 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic . 131 Introduction . 133 Spread of the pandemic . 134 The economics of the pandemic: Shocks and spillovers. 136 Initial impact
4、: Economic activity, financial and commodity markets . 137 Global activity and trade . 137 Global financial conditions . 138 Commodity markets. 138 Short-term growth impact . 139 Spillovers . 140 Vulnerabilities: Magnifying the short-term impact. 141 Long-term growth effects . 144 Implications for p
5、otential output . 145 Implications for productivity . 149 Unique nature of the pandemic: Magnifying the long-term impact . 150 Conclusion . 158 Box 3.1 How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? . 146 Box 3.2 How do disasters affect productivity? . 151 Annex 3.1 The macroeconomic effec
6、ts of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review. 160 Annex 3.2 Bayesian vector autoregression model . 170 Annex 3.3 EMDE vulnerability index. 170 Annex 3.4 Long-term implications of recessions: Data and methodology . 171 References. 172 Executive Summary: Chapters 3 and 4 .ii Lasting Scars of the
7、 COVID-19 Pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has struck a devastating blow to an already-fragile global economy. Lockdowns and other restrictions needed to address the public health crisis, together with spontaneous reductions in economic activity by many consumers and producers, constitute an unpreced
8、ented combination of adverse shocks that is causing deep recessions in many advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Those EMDEs that have weak health systems; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commo
9、dity exports will be particularly hard-hit. Beyond its short-term impact, deep recessions triggered by the pandemic are likely to leave lasting scars through multiple channels, including lower investment and innovation; erosion of the human capital of the unemployed; and a retreat from global trade
10、and supply linkages. These effects may well lower potential growth and labor productivity in the longer term. Immediate policy measures should support health care systems and moderate the short-term impact of the pandemic on activity and employment. In addition, a comprehensive reform drive is neede
11、d to reduce the adverse impact of the pandemic on long-term growth prospects by improving governance and business environments, and expanding invest- ment in education and public health. Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil in the Pandemic. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed
12、 to slow its advance have precipitated an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and, in March, the steepest one-month decline in oil prices on record. In the context of the current restrictions on a broad swath of economic activity, low oil prices are unlikely to do much
13、to buffer the effects of the pandemic, but they may provide some initial support for a recovery once these restrictions begin to be lifted. Like other countries, energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) face an unprecedented public health crisis, but their fiscal positions w
14、ere already strained even before the recent collapse in oil revenues. To help retain access to market-based financing for fiscal support programs, these EMDEs will need to make credible commitments to a sustainable medium-term fiscal position. For some of them, current low oil prices provide an oppo
15、rtunity to implement energy-pricing policies that yield efficiency and fiscal gains over the medium term. Executive Summary: Chapters 3 and 4 The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is dealing a severe blow to the global economy. Measures needed to protect public health have undercut an already fragile
16、global economy, causing deep recessions in advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) alike. EMDEs that have weak health systems; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commodity exports will be particularly
17、 hard-hit. For example, energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) face an unprecedented public health crisis, but their fiscal positions were already strained even before the recent collapse in oil revenues. In the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage in EMDEs th
18、rough lower investment; erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These effects will lower potential outputthe output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacityand labor producti
19、vity well into the future. ii CHAPTER 3 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JUNE 2020 133 The COVID-19 pandemic has struck a devastating blow to an already-fragile global economy. Lockdowns and other restrictions needed to address the public health crisis, to
20、gether with spontaneous reductions in economic activity by many consumers and producers, constitute an unprecedented combination of adverse shocks that is causing deep recessions in many advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Those EMDEs that have weak health system
21、s; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commodity exports will be particularly hard-hit. Beyond its short-term impact, deep recessions triggered by the pandemic are likely to leave lasting scars through multiple channels, including lo
22、wer investment; erosion of the human capital of the unemployed; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These effects may well lower potential growth and labor productivity in the longer term. Immediate policy measures should support health care systems and moderate the short-term impac
23、t of the pandemic on activity and employment. In addition, a comprehensive reform drive is needed to reduce the adverse impact of the pandemic on long-term growth prospects by improving governance and business environments, and expanding investment in education and public health. Introduction On Mar
24、ch 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemicthe first such declaration since the swine flu in 2009. As infections and deaths soared, governments around the world have taken unprecedented measures including lockdowns and quarantines, school and business closures, and travel restr
25、ictionsto stem the spread of the pandemic. These measures, together with the spontaneous reactions of consumers, workers and businesses, have caused severe disruptions to activity in many sectors and a sharp global economic downturn. This has been accompanied by record capital outflows from emerging
26、 market and developing economies (EMDEs), a collapse in global trade, and a plunge in oil demand. This chapter takes stock of the consequences of the pandemic for the global economy. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: How has the pandemic evolved? Through which channels does the pan
27、demic affect the global economy? Note: This chapter was produced by a team led by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge and including Carlos Arteta, Alistair Dieppe, Justin-Damien Guenette, Alain Kabundi, Sergiy Kasyanenko, Sinem Kilic Celik, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Patrick Kirby, Hideaki Matsuoka, Yok
28、i Okawa, Cedric Okou, M. Rudi Steinbach, Dana Vorisek, and Shu Yu. Research assistance was provided by Hrisyana Doytchinova, Maria Hazel Macadangdang, Vasiliki Papagianni, and Heqing Zhao. What is the short-term growth impact of the pandemic? What are the likely long-term growth implications of the
29、pandemic? Contributions. This chapter makes several contributions to a rapidly growing literature on the macroeconomic effects of the pandemic. First, while extensive analysis of the effects on advanced economies is widely available, work on the pandemics impact on EMDEs has thus far been very limit
30、ed. This chapter provides the first comprehensive overview of the effects of the pandemic on EMDEs, highlighting the features that make these economies more vulnerable than advanced economies. Second, while much recent analysis has been devoted to the short-term implications, with forecasts for this
31、 year and next, this chapter also analyses the long-term macroeconomic effects of the pandemic. Third, the chapter presents, for the first time, a systematic synthesis of the copious literature developed over the past few decades on the macroeconomic effects of past disease outbreaks, including epid
32、emics and pandemics. Main findings. The chapter reports several novel findings. Evolution of the pandemic: While outbreaks in most advanced economies appear to be abating, the pandemic is rapidly spreading across EMDEs, including low-income countries (LICs), where health care systems have very limit
33、ed capacity. CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JUNE 2020 134 Severe short-term impact. The pandemic, the widespread restrictions put in place to stem it, and the spontaneous reactions of many consumers and producers have already caused a deep global recession. Along with the public health crisis
34、, EMDEs are facing tighter financing conditions, plunging oil and other commodity prices, sharp declines in remit- tances, and collapsing international trade. Magnifying short-term weakness. Many EMDEs entered this global recession less well-prepared, and with larger vulnerabilities, than when they
35、were hit by the last global recession in 2009. EMDEs that are most vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic include those that have weak health systems, that rely heavily on global trade or tourism, that are vulnerable to financial disruptions, and that depend on oil and other commodity exports. The
36、 recession will prolong a decade of disappointing growth for EMDEs. Persistent damage in the long run. COVID-19 and the resulting recessions engulfing vast swaths of the developing world will leave lasting scars, eroding productivity and potential output for extended periods. The long-term damage wi
37、ll be particularly severe in economies that suffer financial crises, and in energy exporters because of plunging oil prices. In the average EMDE, over a five-year horizon, a recession combined with a financial crisis could lower potential output by almost 8 percent while, in the average EMDE energy
38、exporter, a recession combined with an oil price plunge could lower potential output by 11 percent. The pandemic is expected to exacerbate the weakness in productivity growth and private investment that were features of the past decade. Aggravating long-term challenges. Recessions associated with th
39、e pandemic will likely have an even larger impact on long-term growth prospects because of pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends and structural bottlenecks, and permanent changes in behavior patterns, including consumption habits, and human capital formation. In most years during the past decade, EMDE growth fell short of its long- term average. This was reflected in repeated downgrades to long-term growth projections for EMDEs. The pand