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1、GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants,Institute of Management AccountantsJanuary 2023About ACCA ACCA(the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants)is the global professional body for professional accountants.Were a thriving global co
2、mmunity of 241,000 members and 542,000 future members based in 178 countries and regions,who work across a wide range of sectors and industries.We uphold the highest professional and ethical values.We offer everyone everywhere the opportunity to experience a rewarding career in accountancy,finance a
3、nd management.Our qualifications and learning opportunities develop strategic business leaders,forward-thinking professionals with the financial,business and digital expertise essential for the creation of sustainable organisations and flourishing societies.Since 1904,being a force for public good h
4、as been embedded in our purpose.In December 2020,we made commitments to the UN Sustainable Development Goals which we are measuring and will report on in our annual integrated report.We believe that accountancy is a cornerstone profession of society and is vital helping economies,organisations and i
5、ndividuals to grow and prosper.It does this by creating robust trusted financial and business management,combating corruption,ensuring organisations are managed ethically,driving sustainability,and providing rewarding career opportunities.And through our cutting-edge research,we lead the profession
6、by answering todays questions and preparing for the future.Were a not-for-profit organisation.Find out more at About IMA(Institute of Management Accountants)IMA is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession.Globally,IMA su
7、pports the profession through research,the CMA(Certified Management Accountant)and CSCA(Certified in Strategy and Competitive Analysis)programs,continuing education,networking,and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices.Twice named Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/Internati
8、onal Accounting Bulletin,IMA has a global network of about 140,000 members in 150 countries and 350 professional and student chapters.Headquartered in Montvale,N.J.,USA,IMA provides localized services through its four global regions:The Americas,Asia/Pacific,Europe and Middle East/India.For more inf
9、ormation about IMA,please visit:www.imanet.orgIntroduction THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY(GECS),IS THE LARGEST REGULAR ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ACCOUNTANTS AROUND THE WORLD.The Global Economic Conditions Survey(GECS),carried out jointly by ACCA(the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants)and
10、 IMA(the Institute of Management Accountants),is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world,in both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors.The GECS has been conducted for over 10 years.Its main indices are good lead indicators of economic a
11、ctivity and provide a valuable insight into the views of finance professionals on key variables,such as investment,employment,and costs.Fieldwork for the 2022 Q4 survey took place in December 2022 and gathered 1,720 responses:1,430 from ACCA members and 290 from IMA members.ACCA and IMA would like t
12、o thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey.It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy.3The Q4 Global Economic Conditions Survey(GECS)shows some signs of steadying,but many indicators re
13、main weaker than a year ago.The good news is that the GECS confidence index bounced slightly for the second consecutive quarter,perhaps reflecting hopes that the worst of the central bank tightening might soon be over and that China might successfully relax its zero-Covid restrictions.Even so,the Co
14、nfidence Index remains below its median reading for the period since 2012.Nor is there much positive news from the other three economic indicators new orders,capital expenditure(CapEx),and employment.CapEx picked up marginally but remains below the median of the same period;new orders and employment
15、 showed a further modest deterioration.Taken as a whole,the series are consistent with a subdued macro-economic outlook as we head into 2023.But the good news is that they do not appear to be at levels consistent with an outright global recession in 2023(Chart 1)even though this is the base case sce
16、nario for many economic forecasters.A good cross-check is provided by the two GECS Fear indices,which reflect respondents concern that customers and/or suppliers may go out of business(Chart 2).Reassuringly,these were little changed from the 2022 Q3 survey,despite the sharp rise in borrowing costs a
17、nd the prospect of negative corporate-earnings growth in 2023.Executive summary CHART 2:GECS global fear indices since 2012Source:ACCA/IMA(201222)01020304050THESE WERE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE 2022 Q3 SURVEY,DESPITE THE SHARP RISE IN BORROWING COSTS AND THE PROSPECT OF NEGATIVE CORPORATE-EARNINGS GRO
18、WTH IN 2023.THE LATEST ACCA GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY(GECS)SHOWS SOME STEADYING BUT MANY INDICATORS REMAIN WEAKER THAN A YEAR AGO.GECS:index of concern about customers going out of business GECS:index of concern about suppliers going out of businessIndexCHART 1:GECS global confidence,CapEx,e
19、mployment and new orders indices since 2012-60-50-40-30-20-100102030 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)IndexQ4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022TAKEN AS A WHOLE,THE SERIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH
20、 A SUBDUED MACRO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AS WE HEAD INTO 2023.4CHART 3a:Changes in GECS confidence indices in different regions in 2022 Q4DESPITE THE STEADYING OF THE PAST TWO QUARTERS,CONFIDENCE WAS STILL LOWER THAN IN Q4 OF 2021 ACROSS EVERY REGION OWING TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND HIGHER COMMODITY PRIC
21、ES.Index points-30-20-100102030Western EuropeNorth AmericaGlobalAsiaPacificMiddle EastAfricaSouth AsiaCHART 3b:Changes in GECS confidence indices in different regions during 2022-35-30-25-20-15-10-50AsiaPacificAfricaMiddle EastGlobalWestern EuropeNorth AmericaSouth AsiaIndex points1.Global and regio
22、nal analysisLOOKING AT THE CHANGE IN THE GECS CONFIDENCE INDICES OVER THE QUARTER,WHAT STANDS OUT IS THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIDENCE IN BOTH WESTERN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA.Looking at the change in the GECS confidence indices over the quarter,what stands out is the improvement in confidence in both W
23、estern Europe and North America(see Chart 3a).The swing in the former more than reverses the fall that we saw in 2022 Q3,when worries about the impact of higher energy prices were at their most intense.The improvement in confidence probably reflects hopes that the RussiaUkraine conflict can be conta
24、ined,and that there will be sufficient natural gas to see Europe through what now looks increasingly likely to be a mild winter.More surprising is the decline in confidence in South Asia,although this may in part reflect the aftermath of the monsoon flooding,the debt crisis in Sri Lanka,and requests
25、 for International Monetary Fund(IMF)assistance from both Pakistan and Bangladesh.Despite the steadying of the past two quarters,confidence was still lower than in Q4 of 2021 across every region owing to higher interest rates and higher commodity prices(Chart 3b).Some quarterly noise is inevitable i
26、n any survey,and we prefer to focus on the change over the whole of 2022.South Asia once again has suffered a significant decline in confidence,but this is in line with similar setbacks in Western Europe and North America.While confidence in all regions has been reduced by higher commodity prices an
27、d the tightening of monetary policy,AsiaPacific,Africa and the Middle East have been less badly hit than the global average.Source:ACCA/IMA(2022)5Interestingly,the GECS global new orders index did not bounce alongside the GECS Confidence series.Instead,it recorded a marginal decline,leaving it in li
28、ne with the median level recorded over the surveys history.There was a modest improvement on the quarter in Africa,Western Europe,and North America,but this was wiped out by weakness in AsiaPacific and South Asia(see Chart 4a).Looking back over 2022,the picture was mixed,with regions such as Africa
29、and the Middle East bucking the declining trend.In the Middle East new orders were probably boosted by higher energy revenues.The region that saw the biggest decline in new orders was North America(see Chart 4b).While global new orders are flatlining,one explanation for the rebound in confidence sho
30、wn in Chart 3a may be the decline in commodity prices,which is helping to bring down costs.At the time of writing,the price of Brent crude oil is below$80 per barrel(bbl),compared with around$95/bbl three months ago and European natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.As Chart 5 shows,this has l
31、ed to a fall in the level of concern about increased costs down from the highest level of concern in the surveys history in 2022 Q3.CHART 4a:Change in the GECS new orders index in 2022 Q4Index points-20-15-10-505AfricaWestern EuropeNorth AmericaMiddle EastGlobalAsiaPacificSouth AsiaTHERE WAS A MODES
32、T IMPROVEMENT ON THE QUARTER IN AFRICA,WESTERN EUROPE,AND NORTH AMERICA,BUT THIS WAS WIPED OUT BY WEAKNESS IN ASIAPACIFIC AND SOUTH ASIA.CHART 4b:Change in the GECS new orders index during 2022CHART 5:Concerns about increased operating costs expressed in GECS 2022 Q420304050607080%Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2
33、016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022THE DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES MAY HAVE LED TO A FALL IN THE LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT INCREASED COSTS DOWN FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF CONCERN IN THE SURVEYS HISTORY IN 2022 Q3.-25-20-15-10-50510Middle EastAfricaAsiaPacificGlobalWestern EuropeSouth AsiaNorth AmericaSource:ACCA/I
34、MA(201222)ACCA Global percentage concerned about increased costs Median over survey history6GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022WORRIES ABOUT ACCESSING FINANCE AND SECURING PROMPT PAYMENT HAVE NOT GOT ANY WORSE.THIS IS SOMETHING OF A SURPRISE GIVEN THE RAPID TIGHTENING GLOBALLY OF MONETA
35、RY POLICY BY THE WORLDS CENTRAL BANKS.CHART 6:Problems securing prompt payment and accessing finance5 ACCA Global problems accessing finance(19)ACCA Global problems securing prompt payment(22)%Global confidence has edged up for the second consecutive quarter not only because cost concerns
36、 have eased(see Chart 5),but also because worries about accessing finance and securing prompt payment have not got any worse(see Chart 6).This is something of a surprise given the rapid tightening globally of monetary policy by the worlds central banks.The past 12 months have seen the most aggressiv
37、e tightening of policy in more than 40 years,in pace,scale and breadth.It is strange that this has not yet had a material impact on financing conditions and corporate cash flows.But monetary policy works with long and variable lags,which suggests that this may become more of a problem later in 2023.
38、Tighter monetary policies and the fallout from the RussiaUkraine conflict have prompted companies to rethink their capital spending plans and hiring intentions.When asked how they planned to respond to the changing economic environment,the net balance of companies planning to increase investment in
39、capital and staff has trended downwards,while the net balance of companies planning job creation dropped to the lowest level seen since 2021 Q1(Chart 7).CHART 7:Changes in net investment and job creation shown in GECS since 2012THE NET BALANCE OF COMPANIES PLANNING JOB CREATION DROPPED TO THE LOWEST
40、 LEVEL SEEN SINCE 2021 Q1.Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Source:ACCA/IMA(201222)-60-50-40-30-20-10010 Increased investment in capital(Net)Increased investment in staff(Net)Increased job creation(Net)%Source:ACCA/IMA(201222)200002120227GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDI
41、TIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022AFTER THE SHOCK DROP IN CONFIDENCE EXPERIENCED IN Q2,THE LATEST GECS SHOWS SOME FURTHER SIGNS OF STEADYING.CHART 9:GECS orders indices in the major global regions 20122022Source:ACCA/IMA(201222)-50-40-30-20-1001020 North America AsiaPacific Middle East W Europe South Asia
42、AfricaIndexCHART 8:GECS confidence indices in the major global regionsSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)-80-60-40-200204060 North America AsiaPacific Middle East W Europe South Asia AfricaIndexQ4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022THE LATEST GECS NEW ORDERS INDICES
43、 ALSO SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF STEADYING AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL.Regional analysisAfter the shock drop in confidence experienced in Q2,the latest GECS shows some further signs of steadying.With the exception of South Asia,the GECS confidence index in Q4 rose in most regions(see Chart 8).The rebound in con
44、fidence in North America and Western Europe is particularly striking as these were the two regions where confidence had fallen back to the pandemic lows of 2020.With many commodity prices now back to the levels seen before Russia invaded Ukraine,this potentially paves the way for a further improveme
45、nt in confidence.The latest GECS new orders indices also showed some signs of steadying at the regional level(see Chart 9).Interestingly,the Orders series have been holding up much better than the Confidence indices:they did not return to their pandemic lows.Even so,the wildcard remains the lagged i
46、mpact on global demand of last years aggressive tightening of monetary policy.Central bankers have made it clear that there is likely to be further policy tightening until employment markets start to ease.While the risks from high commodity prices have eased,downside risks to demand have not disappe
47、ared.8GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022NORTH AMERICALooking back at 2022,what is striking about the North American results is how severely confidence was reduced by Russias invasion of Ukraine and by the ensuing spike in commodity prices.As Chart 10 shows,the GECS Confidence Index for
48、 North America in 2022 Q2 actually fell below the 2020 pandemic lows.It has begun to recover during the GECS Q3 and Q4 2022 and that is despite the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve(the Fed).Interestingly,while the other macro-economic indicators on capital spending,
49、employment and new orders have pulled back,the retracement has not been as severe.The GECS results suggest that North American respondents may be less worried than they were about Ukraine but the risk is that they could be underestimating the impact of the Feds tightening on the US economy in 2023.A
50、SIAPACIFICThe GECS AsiaPacific results which include respondents from both Japan and China show a mixed picture.As Chart 11 shows,after a strong rebound from 2020s pandemic lows,all four macro-economic indicators have tracked sideways,despite Chinas zero-Covid policy.Only when we get the next survey
51、 will we understand the impact of Chinas reopening on activity in the region.The other development to watch closely is the potential for a change in the Bank of Japans monetary policy especially once the current Bank of Japan governor,Kuroda-san,retires this spring.WESTERN EUROPERussias invasion of
52、Ukraine hit WesternEuropean confidence as it had in North America,taking the GECS Confidence Index in Q4 down to below 2020s pandemic lows as concern grew over Europes energy security.The latest survey has seen a rebound in confidence as hope has grown that Europe has sufficient energy reserves to s
53、ee it through what is turning out to be a mild winter(Chart 12).Even so,the macro-economic indices tracking capital expenditure and employment remain firmly on a downward path.And the ECB has turned increasingly hawkish owing to fears of higher wage inflation.As with North America,while the immediat
54、e threat from the RussiaUkraine conflict may have receded,the lagged effects of Europes monetary tightening may yet depress Europes economy in 2023.CHART 10:North America-60-40-200204060 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)CHART 11:AsiaPacif
55、ic-70-60-50-40-30-20-1001020 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)CHART 12:Western Europe-60-40-200204060 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)IndexIndexIndexQ4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 20
56、18Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 20229GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022MIDDLE EASTThe Middle East was unable to escape the jolt to confidence triggered by the RussiaUkraine conflict.The GECS Confidence Index for the region
57、 fell back sharply but has steadied above the median level recorded over the period 20122022(Chart 13).The sharp rise in energy prices has played to the regions strengths.This is apparent from the steady upward trend in the macro-economic indicators,with capital expenditure,employment and new orders
58、 recording some of their highest levels in seven years.The risk is that if a global recession does develop in 2023 following tighter global monetary policies,then demand for energy could fall faster than expected and potentially depress energy prices.SOUTH ASIAA significant shift in perceptions appe
59、ars to be under way in South Asia.In contrast to other regions,the GECS Confidence Index here declined sharply in Q4(Chart 14).What makes this more worrying is that the GECS Capital Expenditure,Employment and New Orders indices have also hit trouble.While none of the GECS indicators are yet back at
60、the pandemic lows,their weakness may partly reflect growing sovereign credit concerns in the region following Sri Lankas default last year.Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been in discussions with the IMF.And Pakistan has had to cope with the fallout from severe monsoon flooding.AFRICAThe GECS Conf
61、idence Index for Africa fell back sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine,but confidence has steadied over Q3 and Q4 2022 in line with the average since 2012(Chart 15).Bearing in mind the lack of homogeneity in the region,the GECS macro-economic indicators paint a mixed picture,with new orders close to
62、 record highs at the same time as employment and capital expenditure remain subdued.The sharp rise in energy and food prices hurt the region in 2022 but those headwinds may start to ease as we head into 2023.On the other hand,many African countries have dollar borrowing that has become a greater bur
63、den as US interest rates have risen.CHART 13:Middle East-80-60-40-200204060CHART 14:South Asia-80-60-40-2002040CHART 15:Africa-80-60-40-2002040 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Emplo
64、yment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment indexSource:ACCA/IMA(201222)IndexIndexIndexQ4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 2022Q4 2012Q4 2014Q4 2016Q4 2018Q4 2020Q4 202210GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS S
65、URVEY REPORT:Q4,20222.The global economic outlookAt the start of a New Year,many forecasters will have spent some time reflecting upon the trends and challenges that defined 2022.Those factors presented an enormous challenge to policymakers across the global economy.Rampant inflation,talent-supply c
66、onstraints,political volatility,war in Europe,continuing Covid concerns,and a severe squeeze on household and corporate incomes have all warranted attention.And while policymakers have taken swift action to address those concerns,it is still too early to tell whether that action has had the desired
67、effect.Inflation has undoubtedly been the most dominant of those concerns.Yet there are increasingly clear signs emerging,particularly in the fourth quarter of the year,that inflation may have now peaked.In the US,headline Consumer Price Index(CPI)inflation has dropped back from a peak of 9.0%to 7.1
68、%at the end of last year.In the eurozone,the adjusted inflation rate has fallen to 9.2%down from a peak of 10.8%.And we have seen similar developments in the UK and across some parts of the emerging world too(Chart 16 shows core CPI only).The spike in raw food and wholesale energy prices that occurr
69、ed in the aftermath of Russias invasion of Ukraine has begun to reverse.While that may be encouraging,it doesnt necessarily change the equation for policymakers since core inflation remains stubbornly high,currently running at 5.1%for the G7 economies as a whole(Chart 16).That is especially true in
70、the light of continued talent-market strength,which persists despite pressure on corporate incomes from a combination of rising wholesale costs and slowing top-line earnings growth.With central banks no longer willing to take a risk with inflation fearful that robust price pressures could become emb
71、edded within wage costs or inflation expectations further monetary tightening appears inevitable.If financial-market expectations are a reliable guide,interest rates could rise by a further 50 basis points(bps)in the US,100bps in the UK,and 150bps in the eurozone over the course of 2023.Policy tight
72、ening,in combination with continued pressure on household and corporate balance sheets,points to a further slowdown in economic growth:2022 already provided a taste of that.S&P Globals Global Composite Purchasing Manager Index now sits below the critical threshold of 50 https:/ for the first time(ou
73、tside the pandemic)since 2009;housing-market activity has come under serious pressure,with prices declining sharply across a number of developed-market economies https:/ surveys suggest households across Europe and the US are more pessimistic about their future personal AT THE START OF A NEW YEAR,MA
74、NY FORECASTERS WILL HAVE SPENT SOME TIME REFLECTING UPON THE TRENDS AND CHALLENGES THAT DEFINED 2022.CHART 16:Movement in consumer prices indices since 2000(core CPI)THERE ARE INCREASINGLY CLEAR SIGNS EMERGING,PARTICULARLY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THE YEAR,THAT INFLATION MAY HAVE NOW PEAKED.-202468%
75、2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022Source:ASR Ltd./Refinitiv Datastream UK US Canada Japan Eurozone G7 Core CPI Nov 22=5.211into the end of 2022,with the US market down 6%in December.Government bonds also experienced a further sell-off,with yields on 10-year US Treasuries get
76、ting as high as 3.83%by year end.The rise in yields was broadly based,with increases of between 50 and 70bps in Australia,Germany,France,and the UK and as much as 80bps in Italy.This was after the European Central Bank(ECB)sent an unexpectedly hawkish message in its final policy meeting of 2022,and
77、the Bank of Japan raised its cap on Japanese 10-year bond yields.Almost all these moves,it should be said,were primarily driven by higher real interest rates rather than worries about higher inflation.USFrom a growth perspective,2022 ended on a weak note.The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index p
78、roduced by the Institute for Supply Management(ISM)fell below the all-important 50 mark in November,with a further fall in December to 48.4(for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in early 2020).The equivalent index for non-manufacturing businesses also suffered an unusually large drop i
79、n December to 49.6.Moreover,the US National Association of Housebuilders housing market index https:/www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index weakened further;and real retail sales volumes continue to flatline.The good news is that the inflation picture has begu
80、n to improve.For two consecutive months,US consumer-price inflation has been below expectations,with the core index rising just 0.2%on the month in November.That is encouraging but it is unlikely to satisfy the US Federal Reserve for two reasons.First,while core goods inflation is now in decline and
81、 housing inflation looks as though it has peaked,service sector inflation continues to rise rapidly.And secondly,as the latest US Labor Departments payrolls report showed,the employment market remains remarkably resilient,raising fears that not enough has yet been done to contain wage-price spiral r
82、isks.These two factors are why the market expects the Federal Reserve to tighten further in the short-term with a peak in the policy rate of 5.00%sometime this year.finances than they have been for several decades,depressing consumption https:/economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surve
83、ys/business-and-consumer-surveys/latest-business-and-consumer-surveys_en,https:/www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/finsit-1.Chinas exit from zero-Covid restrictions could eventually provide some uplift to global growth(provided vaccination rates rise swiftly and sufficiently),but the same is unl
84、ikely to be true for developed-market economies.The consensus belief among GECS respondents is that recession may be unavoidable in Europe,and highly likely in America.The price of taming core inflation looks increasingly likely to be rising unemployment;central banks want to see greater slack in th
85、e employment market so that wage growth falls back to a level consistent with their inflation mandates(Chart 17).Against this backdrop,it is no surprise that financial markets ended 2022 on a flat note.After a short-lived rally through October and November,equity markets came under renewed pressure
86、heading CHART 17:Comparison of unemployment rates in the G7 countries and the G7 Core Consumer Prices Index since 1990CENTRAL BANKS WANT TO SEE GREATER SLACK IN THE EMPLOYMENT MARKET SO THAT WAGE GROWTH FALLS BACK TO A LEVEL CONSISTENT WITH THEIR INFLATION MANDATES.Source:ASR Ltd./Refinitiv Datastre
87、am-20246 G7 unemployment rate vs 12-month low Nov 22=0.1 Annual rate of G7 core CPI vs 12-month high Nov 22=-0.3%02005202GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022EurozoneEurozone headline inflation dropped to 9.2%in December https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521
88、/15725146/2-06012023-AP-EN.pdf/885ac2bb-b676-0f0d-b8b1-dc78f2b34735,adding to signs that we might have already seen the peak in price pressure across the developed world.Of course,lower energy prices were responsible for most of that decline in the eurozone not just because base effects are now drop
89、ping out of the annual calculation more significantly,but also because wholesale energy prices themselves have declined considerably since last summer.Mild weather and action to reduce energy demands have helped Europe avoid the worst-case energy scenarios envisaged earlier in the year.Naturally,pol
90、icymakers cannot assume that the weather will continue to cooperate and,without Russian inflows,rebuilding storage buffers for next winter could present a much greater challenge.But in the short term,at least,the risk of a sharp energy-related downturn has receded,and lower prices will reduce the he
91、avy cost that governments across the region are having to absorb.While there is better news on headline inflation,eurozone activity remains weak.S&P Globals Composite PMI https:/ the eurozone dropped below 50 in July and remains below that mark at the time of writing.Moreover,despite a considerable
92、slowdown in activity,core price pressures continue to strengthen.The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices(HICP),excluding food,energy,alcohol and tobacco,hit 5.2%in December two-and-a-half times the ECBs inflation target.With employment market conditions still extremely tight the eurozone unemploymen
93、t rate at 6.5%remains at the low point for this cycle policymakers continue to fear the prospect of a wage-price spiral.And third,with the ECB committing to raising interest rates significantly further,the risk of unintended consequences has risen considerably.Italian sovereign debt,often a source o
94、f concern,already looks unsustainable at current yields,and according to the ECBs own indicators https:/sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseExplanation.do?node=9689686,systemic stress in the eurozone remains higher than it was during the pandemic.UKAfter a tumultuous end to the third quarter,UK financial-market
95、 volatility subsided through Q4.Government bond yields edged lower,after surging in late September following concerns over the Truss administrations economic policies.And interest-rate expectations dipped after the Bank of England made it clear that markets had priced in far too much tightening.As a
96、 result,the markets now expect a terminal rate for policy rates of 4.4%down from 6.4%in late September.Despite this,mortgage rates have been slower to ease.The short-term outlook remains challenging.Indeed,the combined effect of last years household income squeeze and the monetary tightening that th
97、e Bank has imposed are expected to weigh on growth considerably this year.We started to get a taste of that in late 2022,with survey-based measures of activity suggesting the UK economy may well have contracted in Q4.Worryingly,if the Banks latest forecasts are correct,that contraction could last th
98、roughout 2023 and even into 2024.The long-run outlook doesnt look much better.Low talent-participation rates remain an issue,as does weak business investment.The new chancellors autumn statement,delivered last November,suggests fiscal policy will do little to address either of those key issues.China
99、Chinas growth issues mounted in 2022 Q4,as the economy slowed abruptly in November after several major cities reimposed Covid lockdowns.Survey measures,such as the official Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)published by Chinas National Bureau of Statistics(NBS),remain weak relative to recent history,and
100、 the traditional real-economy indicators were no different.Industrial production volumes grew just 2.2%in the year to November 2022,while retail sales volumes contracted by 7.7%.All this suggests that Chinese economic growth may have slowed below 1%in November,from 2.5%in October.Also,Chinas real-es
101、tate problems have not gone away.Sales have dried up over the course of 2022(putting pressure on developers cash flow);house prices have dropped(squeezing household wealth);and land sales have declined considerably(hitting local government finances).The economic policy response is still evolving.Sof
102、t-touch monetary easing gave way to full-fledged attempts to steady the property sector.But the effectiveness of that stimulus has been limited given continued Covid-19 disruption.The biggest challenge in the short-term is undoubtedly the exit from zero-Covid policies following widespread protests i
103、n November.Reducing testing requirements before attempting to boost the vaccination rate could lead to an unpredictable outcome,with a couple of quarters of volatile GDP growth even if lockdowns arent reimposed.The key factor is the speed with which consumer confidence can be restored,as we think th
104、at will be critical in steadying the housing market.13GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022Risks to the global outlook for 2023The global economy currently faces three major uncertainties.First,have central banks overdone or underdone the amount of tightening that they have imposed?Second
105、ly,is China able to engineer a smooth exit from zero-Covid without additional lockdowns?And thirdly,will wage pressures ease without a major weakening of the employment market?One of the unresolved questions from the Covid crisis is whether the combination of early retirement,prolonged ill health,an
106、d the move to hybrid working has profoundly altered the balance of power between employers and employees.These changed employment-market dynamics may make it harder for central banks to bring core inflation back to their 2%targets.The answer to each of these questions will become much clearer as 202
107、3 progresses.The situation in China is particularly fluid but also extremely critical to the macro-economic outlook because a robust recovery in Chinese domestic demand has the potential to offset some of the recession risks in Europe and North America later in 2023.A strong recovery would help stea
108、dy the Chinese real estate sector and might reduce the strains in the banking sector and on financial stability more generally.Equally important is the impact of monetary policy,which tends to work with long and variable lags.We are close to the point where the impact from last years tightening of m
109、onetary policy in North America and Europe should begin to bite.The past year has seen one of the most aggressive rises in policy rates in more than 40 years,in pace,scale and breadth.It is being accompanied by a contraction in central bank balance sheets as policy shifts from quantitative easing to
110、 quantitative tightening,potentially leading to a decline in global debt that might challenge the financial models that have flourished under more than a decade of loose policy and plentiful liquidity.How this plays out could be critical in 2023.Other risks also persist.Europes energy crisis could r
111、eturn next year,given the challenge of rebuilding gas storage buffers ahead of next winter without Russian flows.A further deterioration in relations between the US and China could have profound implications for global trade amid fears that this could lead to a new Cold War.Global repercussions from
112、 a change of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan should also not be underestimated.Finally,political risk is never far away.While none of the major countries are scheduled to hold elections,those slated in places such as Argentina,Turkey,New Zealand,Poland and Spain still have the capacity to surpr
113、ise.Emerging marketsMany of the headwinds faced by emerging-market(EM)economies last year appeared to ease somewhat in the latter months.The spike in global food and energy prices that followed Russias invasion of Ukraine reversed with inflation reaching a peak in Eastern Europe and weakening notice
114、ably in Latin America.Pressure on EM dollar borrowers eased as the Fed slowed the pace of tightening at its final meeting of 2022 and the dollar weakened.And China went all-in to steady its housing market,which if successful could improve the asset quality of its banks and thereby reduce the pressur
115、e on them to rein in their foreign lending.All the above may mean that central banks in EM economies now face less pressure to raise interest rates,which will be welcome news given that growth slowed considerably in the second half of last year,according to S&P Globals PMIs.Indeed,the pace of moneta
116、ry tightening had already begun to ease in recent months.Still,for some of the weaker EMs,that might not be enough.With their fiscal positions now seemingly beyond repair,Pakistan and Ghana look likely to follow Sri Lanka and Zambia into default.CHART 18:Comparison of purchasing managers indices in
117、emerging markets and developed markets since 2006CENTRAL BANKS IN EM ECONOMIES NOW FACE LESS PRESSURE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES,WHICH WILL BE WELCOME NEWS GIVEN THAT GROWTH SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR,ACCORDING TO S&P GLOBAL S PMIs.Source:ASR Ltd./S&P Global(2022)203040506070 E
118、merging Market Composite PMI Dec 22=50.1 Developed Market Composite PMI Dec 22=47.1Index2006200820002214GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT:Q4,2022Links to previous Global Economic Conditions Survey(GECS)reports:NORTH AMERICAMIDDLE EASTASIAPACIFICCENTRAL&EASTERN EUROPESOUT
119、H ASIAWESTERN EUROPEAFRICACARIBBEANCENTRAL&SOUTH AMERICACanadaBahrainAustraliaBulgariaAfghanistanCyprusCameroonBarbadosBelizeMexicoEgyptMainland ChinaCzech RepublicBangladeshFinlandEthiopiaBermudaBrazilUSAIraqHong Kong SARHungaryIndiaGermanyGhanaGrenadaColumbiaIsraelIndonesiaMoldovaKazakhstanGreeceI
120、vory CoastGuyanaCosta RicaJordanJapanPolandMaldivesIreland,Republic ofKenyaJamaicaKuwaitKorea,Republic ofRomaniaNepalItalyLiberiaPuerto RicoLebanonMalaysiaRussiaPakistanLuxembourgMalawiSt VincentOmanNew ZealandSlovakiaMaltaMauritiusTrinidad&TobagoPalestinePhilippinesUkraineNetherlandsNamibiaQatarSin
121、gaporeSpainNigeriaSaudi ArabiaVietnamSwitzerlandSierra LeoneUnited Arab EmiratesTurkeySouth AfricaUKSudanTanzaniaUgandaZambiaZimbabweEconomies covered by Q4 survey responsesClick on the covers to view previous reports online:15GECS-Q4-2022ACCA The Adelphi 1/11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6AU United
122、 Kingdom /+44(0)20 7059 5000 /IMA 10 Paragon Drive Suite 1 Montvale NJ 07645-1760 USA /+1(201)573-9000 /www.imanet.orgACCA,IMA and the global economyGlobal economic conditions continue to dominate business and political life.News and debates on economic issues are almost constantly the focus of medi
123、a attention.While most national economies are now growing once again,it is far from clear how sustainable this growth is or how long it will be before a sense of normalcy returns to the global economy.ACCA and IMA have been prominent voices on what the accounting profession can do to help turn the g
124、lobal economy around.Both bodies have published extensively on a range of topics,from the regulation of financial markets or the prevention of fraud and money laundering,to fair value or the role of international accounting standards,to talent management and the development of an ethical business cu
125、lture.ACCA and IMA aim to demonstrate how an effective global accountancy profession contributes to sustainable global economic development;to champion the role of accountants as agents of value in business;and to support their members in challenging times.Both professional bodies believe that accou
126、ntants add considerable value to business,and never more so than in the current environment.Accountants are particularly instrumental in supporting the small business sector.Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)account for more than half of the worlds private sector output and about two-thirds of
127、 all employment.Both ACCA and IMA focus much of their research and advocacy efforts on articulating the benefits to SMEs of solid financial management and reliable financial information.WHERE NEXT?As countries around the world continue to consider strategies to promote stability and stimulate growth
128、,the interconnectedness of national economies,and how they are managed and regulated,is now under close scrutiny.The development of the global accountancy profession has benefited from,and in turn contributed greatly to,the development of the interconnected global economy.The fortunes of the two are
129、 tied.ACCA and IMA will,therefore,continue to consider the challenges ahead for the global economy,and focus on equipping professional accountants for the uncertain future.CONTACTSFor further information about the Global Economic Conditions Survey and the series of quarterly reports,please contact:Jamie Lyon Head of Skills,Sectors and Technology,ACCA Loreal JilesVice President,Research&Thought LeadershipIMA(Institute of Management Accountants)+1(0)201 474 1639loreal.jilesimanet.orgTo find out more visit: www.imanet.org