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1、Future of Jobs Report 2023I N S I G H T R E P O R TM A Y 2 0 2 3Terms of use and disclaimerWorld Economic Forum91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212 Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744 E-mail:contactweforum.org www.weforum.org Copyright 2020 by the World Economic Forum
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14、e of Jobs Report 20232Contents 2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the W
15、orld Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the Wo
16、rld Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.PrefaceKey findings1 Introduction:the global labour market landscape in 20232 Drivers of labour market transformation2.1 Expected impact of macrotrends on industry transformation and employment 2.2 Expected impact of t
17、echnology adoption on industry transformation and employment3 Jobs outlook4 Skills outlook4.1 Expected disruptions to skills 4.2 Reskilling and upskilling priorities in the next 5 years5 Workforce strategies5.1 Barriers to transformation and workforce strategies5.2 Talent availability and retention5
18、.3 Talent development ConclusionAppendix A:Analysis methodologyAppendix B:Sectoral lens on macrotrends and technologyAppendix C:Sectoral lens on skillsUser guideEconomy ProfilesIndustry ProfilesRegion ProfilesSkill ProfilesContributorsEndnotes4582020 24 283737424949535767294Fut
19、ure of Jobs Report 2023May 2023Future of Jobs Report 20233PrefaceSince its first edition in 2016,the World Economic Forums bi-annual Future of Jobs Report has tracked the labour-market impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,identifying the potential scale of occupational disruption and growth al
20、ongside strategies for empowering job transitions from declining to emerging roles.In 2023,labour-market transformations driven by technological breakthroughs,such as the coming of age of generative artificial intelligence(AI),are being compounded by economic and geopolitical disruptions and growing
21、 social and environmental pressures.This fourth edition of the Future of Jobs Report therefore broadens its scope beyond technological change to also consider and address the labour-market impact of a multitude of concurrent trends,including the green and energy transitions,macroeconomic factors,and
22、 geo-economic and supply-chain shifts.Similar to previous editions,the core of the 2023 Future of Jobs Report is based on a unique survey-based data set covering the expectations of a wide cross-section of the worlds largest employers related to job trends and directions for the 20232027 period.This
23、 years report brings together the perspectives of 803 companies collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers across 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions.This report would not be possible without their openness to contributing their views and insights,and we sincerely
24、 thank them all.We greatly appreciate,too,the support of our network of Partner Institutes,which have enhanced the reports geographical coverage,and our ongoing data collaborations with Coursera,Indeed and LinkedIn,which complemented the survey findings with a range of unique and innovative data-dri
25、ven insights.Our thanks also to the project team:Till Leopold,Elselot Hasselaar,Mark Rayner,Sam Grayling,Ricky Li and Attilio Di Battista,as well as the wider team at the Centre for the New Economy and Society for their input.After widespread instability in the last three years across the world of w
26、ork,we hope the outlook provided in this report will contribute to an ambitious multistakeholder agenda to better prepare workers,businesses,governments,educators and civil society for the disruptions and opportunities to come,and empower them to navigate these social,environmental and technological
27、 transitions.The time is ripe for business leaders and policy-makers to decisively shape these transformations and ensure that future investments translate into better jobs and opportunities for all.Saadia Zahidi Managing Director,World Economic ForumFuture of Jobs Report 2023May 2023Future of Jobs
28、Report 20234Economic,health and geopolitical trends have created divergent outcomes for labour markets globally in 2023.While tight labour markets are prevalent in high-income countries,low-and lower-middle-income countries continue to see higher unemployment than before the COVID-19 pandemic.On an
29、individual level,labour-market outcomes are also diverging,as workers with only basic education and women face lower employment levels.At the same time,real wages are declining as a result of an ongoing cost-of-living crisis,and changing worker expectations and concerns about the quality of work are
30、 becoming more prominent issues globally.The fourth edition of the Survey has the widest coverage thus far by topic,geography and sector.The Future of Jobs Survey brings together the perspective of 803 companies collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers across 27 industry clusters and 45
31、 economies from all world regions.The Survey covers questions of macrotrends and technology trends,their impact on jobs,their impact on skills,and the workforce transformation strategies businesses plan to use,across the 2023-2027 timeframe.Technology adoption will remain a key driver of business tr
32、ansformation in the next five years.Over 85%of organizations surveyed identify increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and broadening digital access as the trends most likely to drive transformation in their organization.Broader application of Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)stan
33、dards within their organizations will also have a significant impact.The next most-impactful trends are macroeconomic:the rising cost of living and slow economic growth.The impact of investments to drive the green transition was judged to be the sixth-most impactful macrotrend,followed by supply sho
34、rtages and consumer expectations around social and environmental issues.Though still expected to drive the transformation of almost half of companies in the next five years,the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,increased geopolitical divisions and demographic dividends in developing and emergi
35、ng economies were ranked lower as drivers of business evolution by respondents.The largest job creation and destruction effects come from environmental,technology and economic trends.Among the macrotrends listed,businesses predict the strongest net job-creation effect to be driven by investments tha
36、t facilitate the green transition of businesses,the broader application of ESG standards and supply chains becoming more localized,albeit with job growth offset by partial job displacement in each case.Climate change adaptation and the demographic dividend in developing and emerging economies also r
37、ate high as net job creators.Technological advancement through increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and increased digital access are expected to drive job growth in more than half of surveyed companies,offset by expected job displacement in one-fifth of companies.The net job creation
38、effect places these two trends in 6th and 8th place respectively.The three key drivers of expected net job destruction are slower economic growth,supply shortages and the rising cost of inputs,and the rising cost of living for consumers.Employers also recognize that increased geopolitical divisions
39、and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will drive labour-market disruption with an even split between employers who expect these trends to have a positive impact and employers who expect them to have a negative impact on jobs.Within technology adoption,big data,cloud computing and AI featur
40、e highly on likelihood of adoption.More than 75%of companies are looking to adopt these technologies in the next five years.The data also shows the impact of the digitalization of commerce and trade.Digital platforms and apps are the technologies most likely to be adopted by the organizations survey
41、ed,with 86%of companies expecting to incorporate them into their operations in the next five years.E-commerce and digital trade are expected to be adopted by 75%of businesses.The second-ranked technology encompasses education and workforce technologies,with 81%of companies looking to adopt these tec
42、hnologies by 2027.The adoption of robots,power storage technology and distributed ledger technologies rank lower on the list.The impact of most technologies on jobs is expected to be a net positive over the next five years.Big data analytics,climate change Key findingsFuture of Jobs Report 2023May 2
43、023Future of Jobs Report 20235and environmental management technologies,and encryption and cybersecurity are expected to be the biggest drivers of job growth.Agriculture technologies,digital platforms and apps,e-commerce and digital trade,and AI are all expected to result in significant labour-marke
44、t disruption,with substantial proportions of companies forecasting job displacement in their organizations,offset by job growth elsewhere to result in a net positive.All but two technologies are expected to be net job creators in the next five years:humanoid robots and non-humanoid robots.Employers
45、anticipate a structural labour market churn of 23%of jobs in the next five years.This can be interpreted as an aggregate measure of disruption,constituting a mixture of emerging jobs added and declining jobs eliminated.Respondents to this years Future of Jobs Survey expect a higher-than-average chur
46、n in the Supply Chain and Transportation and Media,Entertainment and Sports industries,and lower-than-average churn in Manufacturing as well as Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goods.Of the 673 million jobs reflected in the dataset in this report,respondents expect structural job growth of 69 millio
47、n jobs and a decline of 83 million jobs.This corresponds to a net decrease of 14 million jobs,or 2%of current employment.The human-machine frontier has shifted,with businesses introducing automation into their operations at a slower pace than previously anticipated.Organizations today estimate that
48、34%of all business-related tasks are performed by machines,with the remaining 66%performed by humans.This represents a negligible 1%increase in the level of automation that was estimated by respondents to the 2020 edition of the Future of Jobs Survey.This pace of automation contradicts expectations
49、from 2020 survey respondents that almost half(47%)of business tasks would be automated in the following five years.Today,respondents have revised down their expectations for future automation to predict that 42%of business tasks will be automated by 2027.Task automation in 2027 is expected to vary f
50、rom 35%of reasoning and decision-making to 65%of information and data processing.But while expectations of the displacement of physical and manual work by machines has decreased,reasoning,communicating and coordinating all traits with a comparative advantage for humans are expected to be more automa
51、table in the future.Artificial intelligence,a key driver of potential algorithmic displacement,is expected to be adopted by nearly 75%of surveyed companies and is expected to lead to high churn with 50%of organizations expecting it to create job growth and 25%expecting it to create job losses.The co
52、mbination of macrotrends and technology adoption will drive specific areas of job growth and decline:The fastest-growing roles relative to their size today are driven by technology,digitalization and sustainability.The majority of the fastest growing roles are technology-related roles.AI and Machine
53、 Learning Specialists top the list of fast-growing jobs,followed by Sustainability Specialists,Business Intelligence Analysts and Information Security Analysts.Renewable Energy Engineers,and Solar Energy Installation and System Engineers are relatively fast-growing roles,as economies shift towards r
54、enewable energy.The fastest-declining roles relative to their size today are driven by technology and digitalization.The majority of fastest declining roles are clerical or secretarial roles,with Bank Tellers and Related Clerks,Postal Service Clerks,Cashiers and Ticket Clerks,and Data Entry Clerks e
55、xpected to decline fastest.Large-scale job growth is expected in education,agriculture and digital commerce and trade.Jobs in the Education industry are expected to grow by about 10%,leading to 3 million additional jobs for Vocational Education Teachers and University and Higher education Teachers.J
56、obs for agricultural professionals,especially Agricultural Equipment Operators,are expected to see an increase of around 30%,leading to an additional 3 million jobs.Growth is forecast in approximately 4 million digitally-enabled roles,such as E-Commerce Specialists,Digital Transformation Specialists
57、,and Digital Marketing and Strategy Specialists.The largest losses are expected in administrative roles and in traditional security,factory and commerce roles.Surveyed organizations predict 26 million fewer jobs by 2027 in Record-Keeping and Administrative roles,including Cashiers and Ticket Clerks;
58、Data Entry,Accounting,Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks;and Administrative and Executive Secretaries,driven mainly by digitalization and automation.Analytical thinking and creative thinking remain the most important skills for workers in 2023.Analytical thinking is considered a core skill by more compa
59、nies than any other skill and constitutes,on average,9%of the core skills reported by companies.Creative thinking,another cognitive skill,ranks second,ahead of three self-efficacy skills resilience,flexibility and agility;motivation and self-awareness;and curiosity and lifelong learning in recogniti
60、on of the importance of workers ability to adapt to disrupted workplaces.Dependability and attention to detail,ranks sixth,behind technological literacy.The core skills top 10 is completed by two attitudes relating to working with others empathy and active listening and leadership and social influen
61、ce as well as quality control.Future of Jobs Report 20236Employers estimate that 44%of workers skills will be disrupted in the next five years.Cognitive skills are reported to be growing in importance most quickly,reflecting the increasing importance of complex problem-solving in the workplace.Surve
62、yed businesses report creative thinking to be growing in importance slightly more rapidly than analytical thinking.Technology literacy is the third-fastest growing core skill.Self-efficacy skills rank above working with others,in the rate of increase in importance of skills reported by businesses.Th
63、e socio-emotional attitudes which businesses consider to be growing in importance most quickly are curiosity and lifelong learning;resilience,flexibility and agility;and motivation and self-awareness.Systems thinking,AI and big data,talent management,and service orientation and customer service comp
64、lete the top 10 growing skills.While respondents judged no skills to be in net decline,sizable minorities of companies judge reading,writing and mathematics;global citizenship;sensory-processing abilities;and manual dexterity,endurance and precision to be of declining importance for their workers.Si
65、x in 10 workers will require training before 2027,but only half of workers are seen to have access to adequate training opportunities today.The highest priority for skills training from 2023-2027 is analytical thinking,which is set to account for 10%of training initiatives,on average.The second prio
66、rity for workforce development is to promote creative thinking,which will be the subject of 8%of upskilling initiatives.Training workers to utilize AI and big data ranks third among company skills-training priorities in the next five years and will be prioritized by 42%of surveyed companies.Employer
67、s also plan to focus on developing workers skills in leadership and social influence(40%of companies);resilience,flexibility and agility(32%);and curiosity and lifelong learning(30%).Two-thirds of companies expect to see a return on investment on skills training within a year of the investment,wheth
68、er in the form of enhanced cross-role mobility,increased worker satisfaction or enhanced worker productivity.The skills that companies report to be increasing in importance the fastest are not always reflected in corporate upskilling strategies.Beyond the top-ranked cognitive skills are two skills w
69、hich companies prioritize much more highly than would appear according to their current importance to their workforce:AI and big data as well as leadership and social influence.Companies rank AI and big data 12 places higher in their skills strategies than in their evaluation of core skills,and repo
70、rt that they will invest an estimated 9%of their reskilling efforts in it a greater proportion than the more highly-ranked creative thinking,indicating that though AI and big data is part of fewer strategies,it tends to be a more important element when it is included.Leadership and social influence
71、ranks five places higher than suggested by its current importance and is the highest ranked attitude.Other skills which are strategically emphasized by business are design and user experience(nine places higher),environmental stewardship(10 places higher),marketing and media(six places higher)and ne
72、tworks and cybersecurity(five places higher).Respondents express confidence in developing their existing workforce,however,they are less optimistic regarding the outlook for talent availability in the next five years.Accordingly,organizations identify skills gaps and an inability to attract talent a
73、s the key barriers preventing industry transformation.In response 48%of companies identify improving talent progression and promotion processes as a key business practice that can increase the availability of talent to their organization,ahead of offering higher wages(36%)and offering effective resk
74、illing and upskilling(34%).Surveyed companies report that investing in learning and on-the-job training and automating processes are the most common workforce strategies which will be adopted to deliver their organizations business goals.Four in five respondents expect to implement these strategies
75、in the next five years.Workforce development is most commonly considered to be the responsibility of workers and managers,with 27%of training expected to be furnished by on-the-job training and coaching,ahead of the 23%by internal training departments and the 16%by employer-sponsored apprenticeships
76、.To close skills gaps,respondents expect to reject external training solutions in favour of company-led initiatives.A majority of companies will prioritize women(79%),youth under 25(68%)and those with disabilities(51%)as part of their DEI programmes.A minority will prioritize those from a disadvanta
77、ged religious,ethnic or racial background(39%),workers over age 55(36%),those who identify as LGBTQI+(35%)and those from a low-income background(33%).Forty-five percent of businesses see funding for skills training as an effective intervention available to governments seeking to connect talent to em
78、ployment.Funding for skills training ranks ahead of flexibility on hiring and firing practices(33%),tax and other incentives for companies to improve wages(33%),improvements to school systems(31%)and changes to immigration laws on foreign talent(28%).Future of Jobs Report 20237Introduction:the globa
79、l labour market landscape in 20231The past three years have been shaped by a challenging combination of health,economic and geopolitical volatility combined with growing social and environmental pressures.These accelerating transformations have and continue to reconfigure the worlds labour markets a
80、nd shape the demand for jobs and skills of tomorrow,driving divergent economic trajectories within and across countries,in developing and developed economies alike.The Fourth Industrial Revolution,changing worker and consumer expectations,and the urgent need for a green and energy transition are als
81、o reconfiguring the sectoral composition of the workforce and stimulating demand for new occupations and skills.Global supply chains must also quickly adapt to the challenges of increasing geopolitical volatility,economic uncertainty,rising inflation and increasing commodity prices.Like previous edi
82、tions,The Future of Jobs Report 2023 offers insights into these transformations and unpacks how businesses are expecting to navigate these labour-market changes from 2023 to 2027,leveraging a unique cross-sectoral and global survey of Chief Human Resources,Chief Learning Officers and Chief Executive
83、 Officers of leading global employers and their peers.This report is structured as follows:Chapter 1 reviews the global labour-market landscape at the beginning of 2023.Chapter 2 explores how key macrotrends are expected to transform this landscape over the 20232027 period.Chapters 3 and 4 then disc
84、uss the resulting global outlooks for jobs and skills over the 20232027 period.Chapter 5 reviews emerging workforce and talent strategies in response to these trends.The reports appendices provide an overview of the reports survey methodology and detailed sectoral breakdowns of the five-year outlook
85、 for macrotrends,technology adoption and skills.In addition,The Future of Jobs Report 2023 features a comprehensive set of Economy,Industry,and for the first time Skill Profiles.User Guides are provided for each of these profiles,to support their use as practical,standalone tools.As a foundation for
86、 analysing respondents expectations of the future of jobs and skills in the next five years,this chapter now assesses the current state of the global labour-market at the beginning of 2023.Diverging labour-market outcomes between low-,middle-and high-income countriesThe intertwined economic and geop
87、olitical crises of the past three years created an uncertain and divergent outlook for labour markets,widening disparities between developed and emerging economies and among workers.Even as a growing number of economies have begun to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated lockdowns,lo
88、w-and lower-middle-income countries continue to face elevated unemployment,while high-income countries are generally experiencing tight labour markets.At the time of publication,the latest unemployment rates stand below pre-pandemic rates in three quarters of OECD countries,1 and across a majority o
89、f G20 economies(Figure 1.1).At 4.9%,the 2022 unemployment rate across the OECD area is at its lowest level since 2001.2By contrast,many developing economies have experienced a comparatively slow labour-market recovery from the disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.In South Africa,for example,
90、the formal unemployment rate has climbed to 30%,five percentage points higher than it was pre-pandemic(Figure 1.1).Developing economies,especially those reliant on the sectors hardest hit by recurring lockdowns,such as hospitality and tourism,still exhibit slow labour-market recoveries.The asymmetry
91、 of the recovery is exacerbated by countries varying capacities to maintain policy measures to protect the most vulnerable and maintain employment levels.While advanced economies were able to adopt far-reaching Future of Jobs Report 2023May 2023Future of Jobs Report 20238Unemployment rate(%)South Af
92、rica0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021ItalyQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021BrazilQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021France0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021ArgentinaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021TrkiyeQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021Canada0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021Saudi ArabiaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q120222
93、020201920182021United States of AmericaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021India0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021AustraliaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021Republic of KoreaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021Sub-Saharan AfricaEast Asia and the PacificCentral AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaEuropeSouth AsiaNort
94、h AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanUnemployment rate across G20 countriesFIGURE 1.1Quarterly unemployment rate,2018Q12022Q4Future of Jobs Report 20239Unemployment rate(%)Mexico0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021JapanQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021GermanyQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021United Kin
95、gdom0203010Q1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021IndonesiaQ1Q1Q1Q1Q1920182021Sub-Saharan AfricaEast Asia and the PacificCentral AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaEuropeSouth AsiaNorth AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanSourceInternational Labour Organisation,ILOSTAT.Unemployment rate across G20
96、countriesFIGURE 1.1Quarterly unemployment rate,2018Q12022Q4measures,emerging economies have provided less support to the most vulnerable firms and workers due to their limited fiscal space.3,4In 2022,various employment indicators pointed towards a strong labour-market recovery for high-income countr
97、ies,with many sectors experiencing labour shortages.In Europe,for example,almost three in 10 manufacturing and service firms reported production constraints in the second quarter of 2022 due to a lack of workers.5 Nursing professionals,plumbers and pipefitters,software developers,systems analysts,we
98、lders and flame cutters,bricklayers and related workers,and heavy truck and lorry drivers were among the most needed professions(Figure 1.2).In the United States,businesses in Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goods reported close to 70%of job openings remaining unfilled,with close to 55%of roles unf
99、illed in manufacturing and 45%in leisure and hospitality.6 Businesses also reported difficulties in retaining workers.According to a global survey conducted in late 2022 across 44 countries,one in five employees reported they intend to switch employers in the coming year.7Future of Jobs Report 20231
100、0Number of economies07555025Most common labour shortages by occupations in 2022 in EuropeFIGURE 1.2SourceLabour shortages report 2022,European Labour Authority.NoteJob grouping is based on the Level-2,Sub-Major job category in the International Standard Classification of Occupations(ISCO)
101、Taxonomy.Health ProfessionalsMetal,Machinery andRelated Trades WorkersBuilding and Related TradesWorkers(excluding Electricians)Drivers and MobilePlant OperatorsTeaching ProfessionalsInformation and CommunicationsTechnology ProfessionalsScience and EngineeringAssociate ProfessionalsPersonal Services
102、 WorkersFood Processing,Woodworking,Garment and Other Craft andRelated Trades WorkersLabourers in Mining,Construction,Manufacturing and TransportScience and EngineeringProfessionalsPersonal Care WorkersCleaners and HelpersStationary Plant andMachine OperatorsLegal,Social andCultural ProfessionalsSal
103、es WorkersLegal,Social,Cultural andRelated Associate ProfessionalsFood Preparation AssistantsBricklayers andRelated WorkersMetal Working MachineTool Setters and OperatorsSheet MetalWorkersMotor VehicleMechanics and RepairersNursingProfessionalsSpecialistMedical PractitionersPhysiotherapistsSoftwareD
104、evelopersApplicationsProgrammersSystemsAnalystsHeavy Truck andLorry DriversEarthmoving andRelated Plant OperatorsButchers,Fishmongers andRelated Food PreparersEarly ChildhoodEducatorsPrimary SchoolTeachersBuilding andRelated ElectriciansElectrical EngineeringTechniciansCooksWaitersBuilding Construct
105、ionLabourersCivilEngineersMechanicalEngineersHealth CareAssistantsCleaners and Helpers inOffices,Hotels and Other EstablishmentsPsychologistsFood and RelatedProducts Machine OperatorsContact CentreSalespersonsChefsKitchenHelpersCarpentersand JoinersPlumbers andPipe FittersConcrete Placers,Concrete F
106、inishersand Related WorkersElectrical and ElectronicsTrades WorkersNumber of economies in Europe reporting labour shortages for top occupations,grouped by job familiesFuture of Jobs Report 202311Diverging employment levels by gender,age and education levelWomen experienced greater employment loss th
107、an men during the pandemic8,and according to the World Economic Forums Global Gender Gap Report 20229,gender parity in the labour force stands at 62.9%the lowest level registered since the index was first compiled.The global pandemic also disproportionately impacted young workers,with less than half
108、 of the global youth employment deficit projected to have recovered by the end of 2022.10 As highlighted in Figure 1.3,the youth employment deficit relative to 2019 is largest in Southern Asia,Latin America,Northern Africa and Eastern Europe,with only Europe and North America likely to have fully re
109、covered at the time of publication.Workers with a basic education were also hardest hit in 2020,and slower to recover their prior Change(%)PositiveChangeNegative202020212022Eastern Asia-20-15-022South-Eastern Asia and the Pacific202020212022Southern Asia202020212022Central and Western
110、 Asia202020212022Arab States202020212022Eastern Europe202020212022Northern,Southernand Western Europe202020212022Northern Africa202020212022Sub-Saharan Africa202020212022Northern America202020212022Latin America and the Caribbean-20-15-1005-5-20-15-1005-5-20-15-1005-5Youth employment deficit relativ
111、e to 2019,by sub-regionFIGURE 1.3SourceGlobal Employment Trends for Youth 2022:Investing in transforming futures for young people,ILO calculations based on ILOSTAT,ILO modelled estimates,November 2021.NoteThe employment deficit shows the difference in employment in each year due to the EPR being bel
112、ow the 2019 level.Data are estimates up to 2021,and projections for 2022.Youth refers to ages 15-24.Future of Jobs Report 202312Change in unemployment(%)-4+2+4+6+80-2Change in unemployment,by economy and education level,2019-2021FIGURE 1.4SourceInternational Labour Organization,ILOSTAT.Change in une
113、mployment rate among workers with basic educationChange in unemployment rate among workers with advanced educationChange of unemployment rate is higher among workers with basic educationChange of unemployment rate is higher among workers with advanced educationUnited States of AmericaAustriaSwedenSo
114、uth AfricaSaudi ArabiaColombiaCanadaFinlandBrazilCzech RepublicBelgiumRomaniaHong Kong SAR,ChinaIsraelSwitzerlandPakistanSpainViet NamMexicoIndiaThailandRepublic of KoreaNetherlandsIndonesiaLatviaSerbiaItalyAustraliaGermanyPolandArgentinaFranceTrkiyeLithuaniaparticipation in the labour market.In man
115、y countries the increase in unemployment from 2019 to 2021 of workers with a basic education level was more than twice as large as the impact on workers with advanced education(Figure 1.4).Access to social protection From January 2020 to January 2022,almost 3,900 social-protection measures were impl
116、emented across 223 economies to support the labour force impacted by COVID-19.11 These measures are estimated to have reached close to 1.2 billion people globally.Wage subsidies,cash transfers,training measures and extending unemployment-benefit coverage have all been crucial tools to protect the mo
117、st vulnerable during the pandemic.Most such short-term support measures are now being phased out,12 and targeted medium to long-term investments will be needed to alleviate the long-term effects of recurring economic shocks on firms and workers.Yet,there remains an urgent need to provide adequate so
118、cial protection to those not covered by full-time employment contracts(Figure 1.5).Future of Jobs Report 202313Nearly 2 billion workers globally are in informal employment,representing close to 70%of workers in developing and low-income countries,as well as 18%in high income ones.13 Given their susc
119、eptibility to economic shocks and working poverty,informal workers represent a crucial labour-market cohort and need better representation in data,broad-based income support in the short term and a longer term shift towards formalization.Real wages and cost of livingAccording to the International La
120、bour Organization(ILO),labour income in many developing countries remains below pre-pandemic levels.14 In 2020,the global economy started experiencing inflation levels not seen in almost 40 years.15 With high inflation,the global cost-of-living crisis has hit the most vulnerable hardest.16 According
121、 to the ILO,for the first time over the last 15 years,workers real wages have declined by 0.9%in the first half of 2022.17 Across regions,real wage growth was most affected in Northern,Southern and Western Europe;Latin America;Asia Pacific;and North America.18 In Africa,real wages saw a 10.5%drop in
122、 2020 due to the global pandemic.19 However,real wages have continued to increase in 2022 across Asia Pacific,Central and Western Asia and Arab states.20In line with rising inflation,purchasing power has declined for the most vulnerable,given the higher weight of energy and food in expenditures of t
123、he lowest-income households.21 According to recent research by the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP),rising food and energy prices could push up to 71 million people into poverty,with hot spots in Sub-Saharan Africa,the Balkans and the Caspian Basin.22 This cost-of-living crisis highlights
124、the importance of designing permanent models of social protection for non-standard employment and the informal economy that provide security and support resilience.23Share of informal employment as a%of total employment(2019-2021 average)%share of population covered by social protection(2018 or late
125、st data available)4060806010080AngolaAlbaniaArgentinaArmeniaBulgariaBosnia andHerzegovinaBolivia(Plurinational State of)BrazilBotswanaColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEgyptGeorgiaGuatemalaGuyanaIndonesiaIndiaIraqJamaicaJordanKyrgyzstanKiribatiLebanonSaint LuciaSri LankaRepublic
126、of MoldovaMaldivesMexicoMarshall IslandsNorth MacedoniaMaliMyanmarMongoliaPakistanPeruParaguayPalestinian TerritoriesSenegalEl SalvadorSerbiaTimor-LesteTrkiyeUgandaViet NamVanuatuSouth AfricaZambiaInformal employment and social protection coverage in developing countriesFIGURE 1.5SourceInternational
127、 Labour Organization,ILOSTAT.NoteDeveloping countries are countries classified as Upper Middle Income,Lower Middle Income or Low Income Countries by World Bank.For more information about the country classification,please refer to https:/datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-
128、bank-country-and-lending-groups.Sub-Saharan AfricaEast Asia and the PacificCentral AsiaMiddle East and North AfricaEuropeSouth AsiaNorth AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanFuture of Jobs Report 202314Worker preferencesIn this context of diverging labour-market outcomes,issues around the quality o
129、f work have come to the fore.This section reviews some of the latest worker preference research to analyse which job attributes are of most importance to workers currently.As a starting point,data shows workers,openness to changing employer.Data on worker preferences from CultureAmp24 and Adecco25 f
130、ind that more than a quarter(33%and 27%of workers,respectively)do not see themselves at their current company of employment in two years time.In line with this,a little under half of workers(42%and 45%,according to CultureAmp and Adecco,respectively)actively explore opportunities at different compan
131、ies.Worker surveys at both CultureAmp26 and Randstad27 suggest that salary levels are the main reason workers decide to change their job.52%of Randstad respondents say they worry about the impact of economic uncertainty on their employment and 61%of respondents to Adeccos worker-preference survey wo
132、rry that their salary is not high enough to keep pace with the cost of living given rising rates of inflation.28 Additional data explores the protection and flexibility of employment:92%of respondents to Randstads employee survey29 say job security is important and more than half of these respondent
133、s wouldnt accept a job that didnt give assurances regarding job security.83%prioritize flexible hours and 71%prioritize flexible locations.A fourth theme identified by workers is work-life balance and burnout:35%of CultureAmp respondents indicate that work-life balance and burnout would be the prima
134、ry reason to leave their employer.Workers responding to Randstads employee survey30 value salary and work-life balance equally,with a 94%share identifying both aspects of employment as important to choosing to work in a particular role.Data also suggests that diversity,equity and inclusion(DEI)at wo
135、rk is particularly important to young workers.According to Manpower,31 68%of Gen Z workers are not satisfied with their organizations progress in creating a diverse and inclusive work environment,and 56%of Gen Z workers would not accept a role without diverse leadership.Meanwhile,data suggests that
136、fewer women than men are trained.Lastly,workers across age ranges indicate dissatisfaction about training opportunities.Manpower data32 show that 57%of surveyed employees are pursuing training outside of work,because company training programmes do not teach them relevant skills,advance their career
137、development or help them stay competitive in the labour market.Respondents to Adeccos survey criticize companies for focusing their efforts too much on managers development,skills and rewards.Only 36%of non-managers who responded to Adeccos survey said that their company is investing effectively in
138、developing their skills,compared to 64%of managers.Employment shifts across sectorsThe past two years have witnessed a volatility in the demand and supply of goods and services resulting from lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions.The global economic rebound has reconfigured the sectoral distributio
139、n of employment across industries.Figure 6 presents OECD data demonstrating that,while Information Technology and Digital Communications experienced a strong rebound in most countries,the Accommodation,Food and Leisure;Manufacturing and Consumer;and Wholesale and Consumer Goods sectors are experienc
140、ing a slower rate of recovery.Since the first quarter of 2019,a majority of countries have experienced employment growth in Professional Services,Education and Training,Health and Healthcare,and Government and Public Sector,but employment in the Supply Chain and Transportation and Media,Entertainmen
141、t and Sports sectors lags behind 2019 levels.In addition to the pandemic-induced employment shifts we have seen across sectors during the last few years,generative AI models are likely to continue shaping sectoral shifts in employment.While AI applications are shown to be effective general-purpose t
142、echnologies,33 the development of general-purpose technologies have previously been hard to predict,which is why regulation needs to be both prompt and adaptable as institutions learn how these technologies can be used.Through research conducted for the Future of Jobs Report,LinkedIn has identified
143、the fastest growing roles globally over the past four years,shedding further light on the types of jobs employers have been seeking(Box 1.1).The transformations that labour markets are experiencing have also increased the need for swifter and more efficient job reallocation mechanisms within and acr
144、oss different firms and sectors.The coming years represent a generational opportunity for businesses and policy-makers to embrace a future of work which fosters economic inclusion and opportunity,sets in place policies which will influence not only the rate of growth but its direction,and contribute
145、 to shaping more inclusive,sustainable and resilient economies and societies.Future of Jobs Report 202315Change in employment(Millions of jobs)a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qGermany-1,800+600a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qGreece-800+50+13a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qIreland-600+60a b c d e f g
146、h ij k l m n o p qColombia-1,3000+100a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qCzech Republic-2400+60a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qFrance-2500+350a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qAustria-1100+30a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qBelgium-1600+60a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qBrazil-6,0000+5000+51-53+20-5,407-1,
147、2001+1,020+209-90Change in employment by sector in selected countries(2019-2021)FIGURE 1.6Quarterly unemployment rate,2018Q12022Q4NegativePositivea.Accommodation,Food and Leisureb.Manufacturingc.Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goodsd.Media,Entertainment and Sportse.Care,Personal Services and Wellbe
148、ingf.Agriculture and Natural Resourcesg.Supply Chain and Transportationh.Infrastructurei.Non-governmental and Membership Organisationsj.Energy and Materialsk.Real Estatel.Financial Servicesm.Professional Servicesn.Education and trainingo.Health and Healthcarep.Government and Public Sectorq.Informati
149、on Technology and Digital CommunicationsFuture of Jobs Report 202316a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qPortugal-300+50a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qSpain-6000+200a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qSweden-1600+60a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qRepublic of Korea-7000+400a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qMex
150、ico-7000+300a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qPoland-2500+200a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qIsrael-1000+30a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qItaly-9000+100a b c d e f g h ij k l m n o p qJapan-1,4000+6000Change in employment(Millions of jobs)-10-805-90+150+142+187-99-6-55Change in employment by sector i
151、n selected countries(2019-2021)FIGURE 1.6Quarterly unemployment rate,2018Q12022Q4a.Accommodation,Food and Leisureb.Manufacturingc.Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goodsd.Media,Entertainment and Sportse.Care,Personal Services and Wellbeingf.Agriculture and Natural Resourcesg.Supply Chain and Transpor
152、tationh.Infrastructurei.Non-governmental and Membership Organisationsj.Energy and Materialsk.Real Estatel.Financial Servicesm.Professional Servicesn.Education and trainingo.Health and Healthcarep.Government and Public Sectorq.Information Technology and Digital CommunicationsNegativePositiveFuture of
153、 Jobs Report 202317The fastest-growing jobs support sales growth and customer engagement,the search for talent,and technology/ITBOX 1.1Research conducted by LinkedIn for the Future of Jobs Report 2023 describes the 100 roles that have grown fastest,consistently and globally,over the last four years
154、known as the“Jobs on the Rise”.While ILO and OECD data show which sectors are employing more people,Jobs on the Rise data identifies the specific job types that have experienced significant growth.Figure B.1 organizes the 100 Jobs on the Rise into broad types.In line with ILO and OECD data on the gr
155、owth of roles in the Information Technology and Digital Communication sector,Technology and IT related roles make up 16 of the top 100 Jobs on the Rise,the third-highest of all job groupings.Jobs related to Sales Growth and Customer Engagement top the list,with 22 of the 100 roles.With roles such as
156、 Sales Development Representatives,Director of Growth,and Customer Success Engineer featuring in this group,this may suggest an increasing focus on broadening customer groups and growth models in a world with increasing digital access and rapid technological advancement(more detail on how increasing
157、 digital access and adoption of frontier technologies could transform demand for specific job types is available in Chapter 3).Human Resources and Talent Acquisition roles are the second-most popular roles,and most of these relate to Talent Acquisition and Recruitment,including a specific role for I
158、nformation Technology Recruitment perhaps illustrating the increasing difficulty and importance of accessing talent in a generally strong labour market.Of the groups further down the list,Sustainability and Environment related roles are notable for all being in the top 40,including three of the top
159、10 roles(Figure B.2).This might suggest the green transition is both a significant and developing labour-market trend,where roles have titles such as“Sustainability Analyst”.Chapter 3 further examines the outlook for roles related to a green transition.Sales Growth and Customer EngagementHuman Resou
160、rces and Talent AcquisitionsTechnology and ITMarketing and CommunicationsPartnerships and AlliancesCyber SecuritySustainability and EnvironmentSecurityInsights and AnalyticsOtherLegal and FinanceTop 2020-4040-6060-8080-10050Number of jobs in the top 100 fastest growing10152025LinkedIn jobs on the ri
161、se,2018-2022FIGURE B1.1SourceLinkedIn.Growing roles by job typeIn collaboration with LinkedInFuture of Jobs Report 202318Annual average%growth0+50+60+20+30+40+10SourceLinkedIn.Fastest growing job postings on LinkedIn 2018-2022FIGURE B1.2Talent Acquisition AssociateSustainability AnalystSales Develop
162、ment RepresentativeCustomer Success AnalystSustainability SpecialistCustomer Success AssociateGrowth Marketing ManagerTalent Acquisition PartnerSustainability ManagerWorkplace Coordinator1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.+53%+45%+45%+43%+42%+42%+42%+41%+40%+39%Future of Jobs Report 202319Drivers of labour market
163、 transformation2The green transition,technological change,supply-chain transformations and changing consumer expectations are all generating demand for new jobs across industries and regions.However,these positive drivers are offset by growing geoeconomic tensions and a cost-of-living crisis.34 The
164、Future of Jobs Survey was conducted in late 2022 and early 2023 bringing together the perspective of 803 companies collectively employing more than 11.3 million workers across 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions.The Survey covers questions of macrotrends and technology trend
165、s,their impact on jobs,their impact on skills,and the workforce transformation strategies businesses plan to use.This chapter analyses findings from the World Economic Forums Future of Jobs Survey to explore how businesses expect macrotrends and technology adoption to drive industry transformation a
166、nd employment.Results from the survey provide a picture of how businesses expect several macrotrends to impact their operations.Trends ranging from technology adoption to macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook,the green transition,demographics and consumer preferences are expected to drive industry
167、transformation in the next five years.As illustrated in Figure 2.1,businesses identify increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and broadening digital access as the trends which are most likely to drive transformation in their organization,these are expected to drive trends in over 85%of
168、the organizations surveyed.Broader application of Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)standards within their organizations will also have a significant impact.The next most-impactful trends are macroeconomic:the rising cost of living and slow economic growth.The impact of investments to drive th
169、e green transition was judged to be the sixth-most impactful macrotrend.Supply shortages and consumer expectations around social and environmental issues follow next.Though still expected to drive the transformation of almost half of companies in the next five years,the ongoing impact of the COVID-1
170、9 pandemic,increased geopolitical divisions and demographic dividends in developing and emerging economies were placed lower as drivers of business evolution by respondents.Employers also forecast the expected impact of these macrotrends on employment within their organizations.Figure 2.2 suggests t
171、hat employers expect most of the disruptions to have a net positive effect on employment,with most macrotrends expected to drive net job growth.Among the macrotrends listed,businesses predict the strongest net job-creation effect to be driven by investments that facilitate the green transition of bu
172、sinesses,the broader application of ESG standards and supply chains becoming more localized,albeit with job growth offset by partial job displacement in each case.Climate change adaptation and the demographic dividend in developing and emerging economies also rate high as net job creators.Technologi
173、cal advancement through increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and increased digital access the two macrotrends judged by businesses to be most impactful on their organization in the next five years are also expected to drive job growth in more than half of surveyed companies.However,th
174、is is offset by expected job displacement in one-fifth of companies,with the remaining respondents expecting the impact on employment to be roughly neutral.The net job creation effect places these Expected impact of macrotrends on business transformation and employment2.1Future of Jobs Report 2023Ma
175、y 2023Future of Jobs Report 202320Share of organizations surveyed(%)040608010020Macrotrends driving business transformationFIGURE 2.1SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Consumers becoming more vocal on social issuesSupply shortages and/or rising cost of inputs for your businessInve
176、stments to facilitate the green transition of your businessSlower global economic growthIncreased adoption of new and frontier technologiesBroadening digital accessBroader application of Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)standardsRising cost of living for consumersConsumers becoming more vocal
177、 on environmental issuesClimate-change induced investments into adapting operationsSupply chains becoming more localizedStricter government regulation of data use and technologyAgeing populations in advanced and emerging economiesDemographic dividend in developing and emerging economiesIncreased geo
178、political divisionsOngoing impact of the COVID pandemic86.2%86.1%80.6%74.9%73.0%69.1%68.8%67.6%67.5%65.1%Trends ranked by share of organizations surveyed that identified this trend as likely or increasingly in the next 5 years 60.0%59.2%51.6%49.6%48.1%43.1%Share of organizations surveyed(%)-100-250+
179、25+50+75+100-50-7552.2%51.4%46.5%43.9%37.8%36.4%35.2%33.7%28.8%16.9%16.9%1.6%-0.9%-19.3%-23.7%-44.4%Expected impact of macrotrends on jobs,20232027FIGURE 2.2SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Broadening digital accessConsumers becoming more vocal on environmental issuesIncreased a
180、doption of new and frontier technologiesDemographic dividend in developing and emerging economiesInvestments to facilitate the green transition of your businessBroader application of Environmental,Social and Governance(ESG)standardsSupply chains becoming more localizedClimate-change induced investme
181、nts into adapting operationsConsumers becoming more vocal on social issuesStricter government regulation of data use and technologyAgeing populations in advanced and emerging economiesIncreased geopolitical divisionsOngoing impact of the COVID pandemicRising cost of living for consumersSupply shorta
182、ges and/or rising cost of inputs for your businessSlower global economic growthJob displacerNet effectJob creatorShare of organizations surveyed that expect each trend to create or displace jobs,ordered by job creation net effect.The shares of organizations which expect the impact of these macrotren
183、ds to be neutral are not plotted.Future of Jobs Report 202321two trends in 6th and 8th place respectively.The last section of this chapter will probe which specific technologies businesses expect to drive the reconfiguration of labour markets.The three key drivers of expected net job destruction are
184、 forecast to be slower economic growth,supply shortages and the rising cost of inputs,and the rising cost of living for consumers.Employers also recognize that increased geopolitical divisions and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will drive labour-market disruption,with an even split betw
185、een employers expecting these to have a positive and negative impact on jobs.The following sections now briefly explore three facets of this picture more closely:growth and inflation,changing economic geographies and the green transition.Growth and inflationAt the beginning of 2023,the global econom
186、ic situation was shaped by a combination of vulnerabilities that caused high global inflation at 8.8%in 2022 above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%and slowed economic growth which the IMF forecasts to be 2.9%in 2023,below the long-term average of 3.8%.35 These vulnerabilities include the monetary and
187、fiscal expansion that eased pressure during pandemic lockdowns but enabled higher inflation,exacerbated by higher food and gas prices resulting from geopolitical tensions and Russias invasion of Ukraine.Several central banks have taken measures to counteract these trends by increasing interest rates
188、.Over the 20232027 period,employers expect these precarious economic conditions to continue to impact their business:as previously noted,three quarters of respondents expect the rising cost of living and slower economic growth to drive transformation in their organizations in the next five years.Of
189、the 10 economies with the highest proportion of businesses expecting the rising cost-of-living to drive transformation,five are from the MENA region.The countries most concerned by slower economic growth are more distributed,with three of the top 10(including three of the top four)countries from Eas
190、t Asia and the Pacific,with the remaining seven countries split between MENA and Europe.Against this backdrop,survey respondents expect economic challenges to be the greatest threat to the job market in the next five years,with slower global economic growth,supply shortages and rising costs,and the
191、rising cost-of-living all expected to significantly displace jobs(Figure 2.2).This prediction is more pronounced in the Agricultural and Natural Resources,Manufacturing,and Supply Chain and Transportation industries,where the net decline(the fraction of respondents expecting job decline minus those
192、expecting growth)is almost 40%.Conversely,the Care,Personal Services and Wellbeing and Government and Public Sector industries expect little impact on jobs from these trends.Organizations operating in Latin America expect to be hit hardest by these trends,with net job decline expectations of around
193、40%,compared to a lower impact of around 25%in Europe and South Asia.Changing economic geographiesDriven by economic,environmental and geopolitical trends,the world economy is undergoing a structural transformation which challenges the traditional drivers of globalization,with diverging outcomes.36
194、Though factors such as climate change call for integrated global policy-making and international cooperation,disruptions such as threats to the resilience of value chains due to COVID-19 and geopolitical conflict may make doing business locally more attractive than relying on the stability of intern
195、ational partners.By comparing how Future of Jobs survey respondents who operate globally(in five or more countries)expect global trends to impact their business to expectations of those who have a single base of operations,this report finds that there are no significant differences between these gro
196、ups.These global trends have led to businesses considering ways to enhance resilience in their supply chains,through“nearshoring”,“friendshoring”37 and other ways to distribute risk(e.g.China+1 strategy among multinational firms whereby they maintain production bases in China while diversifying supp
197、liers to other countries).This possible supply-chain restructuring is particularly relevant in East Asia,which could see benefits from diversification away from China,but equally could see potential reduced demand from European and North American businesses moving supply chains closer to the operati
198、on bases.This report analyses these developments by assessing three macrotrends related to inter-country dynamics and supply chains:increased geopolitical tensions,localization of supply chains,and supply-chain shortages impact on organizations transformation.Figure 2.3 shows that East Asian countri
199、es dominate the top 10 countries for expectations that these trends will drive transformation.Respondents have differing expectations of the impact these three trends will have on jobs,with mixed opinions(net neutral)on the impact of increased geopolitical divisions,strongly positive expectations fo
200、r supply chains becoming more localized and strongly negative expectations for supply shortages and rising input costs.With East Asian countries expecting the greatest impact on business transformation from these trends,this Future of Jobs Report 202322region can also expect significant job disrupti
201、on from changing supply chains and geopolitical tensions in the coming years.The green transitionTo meet the goals of the Paris Agreement a pledge to keep global temperature rises below 2C and pursue efforts to limit them to 1.5C large-scale global action towards a green transition is ongoing and ex
202、pected to accelerate.While transitioning to a green economy will disrupt labour markets over the next decade it will also create significant new job opportunities.The data in this report shows that investments in the green transition,broader application of ESG standards and climate-change adaptation
203、 are expected to have strong positive impacts on job creation(Figure 2.3).A deeper examination of the data reveals that job creation will be pronounced in the Energy and Materials and Infrastructure sectors,where roughly 10%more companies expect job creation as a result of these effects.Regarding th
204、e application of ESG standards,organizations operating in Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest net expectations for job growth(an excess of 64%of companies expecting job growth less those expecting job decline),well ahead of the lowest-ranking region(Europe at 50%).Regarding investments in the green
205、transition,regional expectations are more aligned,with organizations operating in Sub-Saharan Africa most optimistic(60%),and Central Asia in last place(53%).In the next five years,these trends are likely to drive job growth through both public and private investments.Since the beginning of the pand
206、emic$1.8 trillion has been spent globally on green stimulus,compared to$650 billion(inflation-adjusted)in response to the 2008 financial crisis.38 Examples of some of these public investment programmes include Chinas Carbon Neutrality pledge,the European Green Deal Investment Plan and the United Sta
207、tes recent Inflation Reduction Act.Similarly,businesses are driving the green transition forward,through their own and joint initiatives.Studies show that investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency often generate more employment in the near term than investments in fossil fuels,but work r
208、emains to improve job quality and wages as well as to support workers in carbon-intensive industries.39Demand for green jobs is growing quickly across sectors and industries.According to a recent estimate by the International Energy Agency(IEA),a green-recovery scenario could lead to close to 3.5%of
209、 additional GDP growth globally,as well as a net employment impact of 9 million new jobs created each year.40 Globally,the green transition could create 30 million jobs in clean energy,efficiency and low-emissions technologies by 2030.41 By 2030 the transition to a nature-positive economy in China a
210、lone is expected to add$1.9 trillion to the countrys economic worth and generate 88 million new jobs.42East Asia and the PacificElsewhereSourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Top-ranked economies of operation for expected business transformationof selected macrotrendsFIGURE 2.3Ordere
211、d by share of organizations surveyed expecting the trend to drive business transformation Increased geopolitical divisionsPhilippinesTaiwan,ChinaSingaporeThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaHong Kong SAR,ChinaChinaGermanyRepublic of Korea1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.Supply chains becoming more localizedUnited Arab Emi
212、ratesHong Kong SAR,ChinaMalaysiaSingaporeRepublic of KoreaViet NamThailandTaiwan,ChinaPhilippinesSaudi Arabia1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.Supply shortages and/or rising cost of inputs for your businessViet NamTaiwan,ChinaSaudi ArabiaIndonesiaThailandRepublic of KoreaSingaporeFinlandUnited Arab EmiratesSwitz
213、erland1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.Future of Jobs Report 202323The Fourth Industrial Revolution has accelerated the pace of adoption of technologies and shifted the frontier between humans and machines across sectors and geographies.Technology is altering the way we work,but also changing job content,skills
214、 in need,and which jobs are being displaced.43 Understanding how technologies will impact labour markets is crucial for determining whether people will be able to transition from declining occupations to the jobs of tomorrow.44Relative adoption of technologiesFuture of Jobs Survey results highlight
215、expected future trends in technology adoption across industries.Figure 2.4 presents the technologies according to companies likelihood to adopt them by 2027.As in previous years,big data,cloud computing and AI feature near the top of this list,with approximately 75%of companies looking to Expected i
216、mpact of technology adoption on business transformation and employment2.2Digital platforms and appsEducation and workforce development technologiesBig-data analyticsInternet of things and connected devicesCloud computingEncryption and cybersecurityE-commerce and digital tradeArtificial intelligenceE
217、nvironmental management technologiesClimate-change mitigation technology Text,image,and voice processingAugmented and virtual realityPower storage and generationElectric and autonomous vehiclesRobots,non-humanoid020100Share of respondents(%)406080Technology adoption,2023-2027FIGURE 2.4SourceWorld Ec
218、onomic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.86.4%80.9%80.0%76.8%76.6%75.6%75.3%74.9%64.5%62.8%61.8%59.1%52.1%51.5%51.3%Technologies ranked by the share of organizations surveyed who are likely or highly likely to adopt this technology over the next 5 yearsadopt these technologies in the next five years.
219、The data also shows the impact of the digitalization of commerce and trade,with platforms and apps likely to be adopted by 86%of companies and e-commerce and digital trade likely to be adopted by 75%of businesses.The second-ranked technology is education and workforce technologies,with 81%of compani
220、es looking to adopt this technology by 2027.Expected impact of technology adoption on jobsThe Future of Jobs Survey also probes the expected impact of technology adoption on employment.Figure 2.5 shows that all but two technologies are expected to be net job creators in the next five years.Big data
221、analytics,climate change and environmental management technologies,and encryption and cybersecurity are expected to be the biggest drivers of job growth.Agriculture technologies,digital platforms and apps,e-commerce and digital trade,and AI are all expected to result in significant labour-market dis
222、ruption,with substantial proportions of companies forecasting job displacement in their organizations,offset by job growth elsewhere to result in a net positive.Generative AI has received particular attention recently,with claims that 19%of the workforce could have over 50%of their tasks automated b
223、y AI45 and job losses making headlines,while others expect the technology to Future of Jobs Report 202324Share of organizations surveyed(%)-00-50-75Expected impact of technology adoption on jobs,20232027FIGURE 2.5SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Health and care tec
224、hnologiesDigital platforms and appsAgriculture technologiesBiotechnologyBig-data analyticsClimate-change mitigation technology Environmental management technologiesEncryption and cybersecurityEducation and workforce development technologiesAugmented and virtual realityPower storage and generationE-c
225、ommerce and digital tradeBiodiversity protection technologiesCryptocurrenciesCloud computingNew materialsDistributed ledger technology3D and 4D printing and modellingSatellite services and space flightInternet of things and connected devicesNanotechnologyArtificial intelligenceQuantum computingText,
226、image,and voice processingElectric and autonomous vehiclesRobots,humanoidRobots,non-humanoid(e.g.industrial automation,drones)Water-related adaptation technologiesJob displacerNet effectJob creator58.0%49.5%45.8%43.3%42.9%41.3%41.0%40.3%39.8%39.6%37.6%36.6%Share of organizations surveyed that expect
227、 each technology to create or displace jobs,ordered by the job creation net effect.The shares of organizations which expect the impact of adopting these technologies to be neutral are not plotted.34.8%33.7%32.9%30.5%28.8%28.5%28.1%28.0%25.6%23.5%17.6%16.5%-2.6%-8.8%35.0%35.1%Future of Jobs Report 20
228、2325enhance jobs.46 Only robots,whether humanoid or non-humanoid,are forecast to have a net negative overall impact on employment in our data,with roughly equal cohorts of companies expecting growth,displacement and neutral impact.The shares of oragnizations surveyed which forecast a neutral impact
229、are not plotted.While respondents operating in different industries show differing preferences for technologies,there are a few industries that show much higher overall expectations to adopt new technologies while some are more cautious.The Electronics and Chemical and Advanced Materials industries
230、are planning to adopt more technologies than average,while the Employment Services,Insurance and Pension Management,and Real Estate industries are the least inclined to adopt new technologies.Environmental management technology is one of the technologies with the most differentiated uptake across in
231、dustries,with 93%of Oil and Gas employers expected to adopt the technology,followed by Chemical and Advanced Materials(88%)and Production of Consumer Goods(86%).In contrast,just 26%of Employment Services employers expect to adopt this technology,followed by Education and Training(36%)and Insurance a
232、nd Pension Management(42%).Similarly,augmented and virtual reality is likely to be heavily adopted by organizations in Electronics(80%);Research,Design and Business Management services(77%);and Energy Technology and Utilities(75%)industries,compared to Mining and Metals(46%);Accommodation,Food and L
233、eisure services(42%);and Agriculture,Forestry and Fishing(30%)industries.Sectoral data on technology adoption is also included in Appendix B.Looking specifically at robots,Future of Jobs Survey data highlights the Electronics(83%),Energy Technology and Utilities(72%),and Consumer Goods(71%)industrie
234、s as likely top adopters.Data from the International Federation of Robotics shows that the number of industrial robots per 10,000 workers has continued to rapidly increase over the last five years across countries.47 Industrial robot density has nearly doubled over the last five years,reaching 126 r
235、obots per 10,000 workers on average.Regarding robots impact on employment,the strongest sectoral picture emerges for the adoption of non-humanoid robots,wherein 60%of companies operating in the Production of Consumer Goods and the Oil and Gas industry foresee job displacement,and 60%of companies ope
236、rating in Information and Technology services foresee job creation in the next five years.The human-machine frontierAs businesses adopt frontier technologies,tasks such as information and data processing are increasingly automated,reconfiguring labour markets and changing the skills needed for work.
237、Previous editions of the Future of Jobs Report have documented the shifting frontier between the work tasks performed by humans and those performed by machines and algorithms.We do so again this year.The human-machine frontier has shifted since the 2020 edition,which was released in the midst of COV
238、ID-19 lockdowns and remote working,when expectations for increasing automation were high.The fraction of automated tasks has increased less than previously expected,and the horizon for future automation is stretching further into the future than surveyed businesses previously anticipated.Organizatio
239、ns today estimate that 34%of all business-related tasks are performed by machines,with the remaining 66%performed by humans.This represents a 1%increase on the level of automation estimated by respondents to the 2020 edition of the Future of Jobs Survey.This pace of automation contradicts expectatio
240、ns from respondents to the 2020 survey that almost half of business tasks would be automated in the following five years,possibly reflecting a view that machines and algorithms have augmented human performance rather than automating tasks in this period.Overall,relative to 2020,employers have revise
241、d their predictions for future automation down by 5%(from 47%automation by 2025 in 2020 to 42%automation by 2027 now).Task automation in 2027 is expected to vary from 35%of reasoning and decision-making to 65%of information and data processing(see Figure 2.6).The potential scope of automation and au
242、gmentation will further expand over the next few years,with AI techniques maturing and finding mainstream application across sectors.It remains to be seen how technologies going through the most rapid changes,such as generative AI technology,may further change the make-up of automatable tasks over t
243、he 20232027 period,with some recent studies finding that Large Language Models can already automate 15%of tasks.When combined with applications which can correct known issues with existing Large Language Models(such as factual inaccuracies),this share may increase to 50%.48Future of Jobs Report 2023
244、260502575000502575100Reasoning and decision-makingShare of tasks(%)Coordinating,developing,managing and advisingCommunicating and interactingPerforming physical andmanual work activitiesIdentifying and evaluatingjob-relevant informationAll tasksAdministeringInformation and data processing
245、Performing complex and technical activitiesLooking for and receivingjob-related informationSurvey 2020Survey 2023Survey 2020Survey 2023NowFive years in the futureSurvey 2020Survey 2023Survey 2020Survey 20230502575000502575000502575000502575100The human-machine fronti
246、erFIGURE 2.6%of tasks expected to be automatedSourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Surveys 2020,2023.Future of Jobs Report 202327Jobs outlook3Macrotrends and technology are set to drive a mixed outlook for job creation and destruction in the next five years,across job categories and industries.
247、This chapter uses the concept of labour-market churn to help quantify the expected change in labour markets.In particular,the Survey results help quantify structural labour-market churn,which results from changes to the employment structure of companies when new roles are created or existing roles a
248、re eliminated(this excludes job changes where a new employee replaces an existing one in the same role).Accordingly,this chapters analysis estimates churn using anticipated structural changes reported by surveyed companies in the composition of their workforces between 2023 and 2027.Labour-market ch
249、urn and the pace of transformationLabour-market churn refers to the pace of reallocation of workers and jobs.The survey provides insight into structural labour-market churn;namely,the number of expected new jobs,plus the number of roles expected to be displaced during the period,divided by the size
250、of the labour force in question.Structural churn does not include the natural churn of workers moving between jobs for personal reasons.Five-year structural churn is estimated for each job by summing the absolute magnitudes of its reported workforce fraction changes from now to 2027,reported by the
251、respondents in the Future of Jobs Survey,and dividing by the summed workforce fractions today,reported by the respondents in the Future of Jobs Survey.It can be interpreted as an overall measure of disruption,both growth and decline.Overall,this report estimates a mean structural labour-market churn
252、 of 23%for surveyed companies across sectors and countries over the next five years(see Figure 3.1).This indicates that total expected job movement,including both new roles being created and existing ones being destroyed,represents 23%of the current workforce.This finding helps to illustrate situati
253、ons whereby relatively modest changes in net job numbers across a country or industry can partly mask major underlying reconfigurations within a churning labour market.Future of Jobs Report 2023May 2023SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023;International Labour Organization,ILOSTAT.No
254、teWorld Economic Forum analysis of the labour-market prospects for 673 million employees out of a global ILO dataset comprising 820 million employees using the Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Projected job creation and displacement,2023-2027FIGURE 3.1Jobs lostStable jobsJobs createdOne million jobsIn the
255、 next five years,83 million jobs are projected to be lost and 69 million are projected to be created,constituting a structural labour-market churn of 152 million jobs,or 23%of the 673 million employees in the data set being studied.This constitutes a reduction in employment of 14 million jobs,or 2%.
256、Future of Jobs Report 202328Future churn expectations for the next 5 years are likely to continue the ongoing structural reconfiguration of labour markets.In Chapter 1,this report identified employment lagging behind 2019 levels in Accommodation,Food and Leisure;Manufacturing;Retail and wholesale of
257、 consumer goods;Supply chain and transportation;and Media,Entertainment and Sports.This reports churn analysis suggests a higher than average churn from 2023 to 2027 in the Supply Chain and Transportation and Media,Entertainment and Sports industries,where respondents estimate structural five-year c
258、hurn to be 29%and 32%respectively,but lower than average churn in Accommodation,Food and Leisure;Manufacturing and Retail;and Wholesale of Consumer Goods(see Figure 3.2).Relatively high churn is also forecast in the Telecommunications and Media,Entertainment and Sports,Financial Services and Capital
259、 Markets,and Information and Technology Services industries,in part reflecting technology-driven job changes.Growing and declining jobsThe net growth or decline of jobs can be estimated in a similar way to churn.Figure 3.3 displays how surveyed businesses expect jobs to grow or decline fastest,as a
260、proportion of their existing labour force.AI and Machine Learning Specialists top the list of fast-growing jobs,followed by Sustainability Specialists and Business Intelligence Analysts.The majority of the fastest growing roles on the list are technology-related roles.The majority of fastest declini
261、ng roles are clerical or secretarial roles,with Bank Tellers and Related Clerks,Postal Service Clerks,and Cashiers and Ticket Clerks expected to decline fastest.Many of the roles which are forecast to be growing and declining fastest,relative to their current proportion in the labour force,are consi
262、stent with the findings published in previous Future of Jobs reports in 2016,2018 and 2020,signalling a structural reconfiguration of labour-markets with its roots in technological adoption and automation(see Chapter 2).These emerging roles that have been highlighted in all four reports include Data
263、 Analysts/Scientists,AI and Machine Learning Specialists,and Digital Transformation Specialists,while declining roles include Data Entry Clerks;Executive and Administrative Secretaries;and Accounting,Bookkeeping,and Payroll Clerks.To approximate the total impact of job growth and decline,this report
264、 compares proportionate growth forecasts with estimates of the total number of workers in these roles based on ILO data for those countries in which data is available.Using this method as a means to obtain an indicative extrapolation of the size of global workforces,the Future of Jobs data set corre
265、sponds to 673 million workers in the full ILO data set of 820 million workers(see Figure 3.1).The Future of Jobs Survey is not structured in a way to derive estimates for the remaining 147 million workers,as sectors which employ these workers in large numbers could not be not surveyed in sufficientl
266、y large numbers to be able to report reliable predictions.The ILO data set is smaller than modelled ILO estimates of a total of roughly 1.7 billion workers worldwide when country-level data gaps are extrapolated,and smaller than the estimated 3.3 billion workers in either formal Media,entertainment
267、and sportsGovernment and public sectorInformation technology and digital communicationsReal estateFinancial servicesSupply chain and transportationNon-governmental and membership organisationsEducation and trainingCare,personal services and wellbeingAgriculture and natural resourcesProfessional serv
268、icesInfrastructureHealth and healthcareRetail and wholesale of consumer goodsEnergy and materialsManufacturingAutomotive and aerospaceAccommodation,Food and Leisure040Five-year churn(%)102030Labour market churn,by industryFIGURE 3.2SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.SourceLabour-m
269、arket churn refers to the total expected job movement-including both new roles being created and existing roles destroyed-as a proportion of current employment.This excludes situations where a new employee replaces someone in the same role.32%29%29%27%26%25%24%23%23%23%23%22%22%21%19%19%19%16%Future
270、 of Jobs Report 202329-50+50-250+25-50-25+500+25Fraction of current workforce(%)Fraction of current workforce(%)Jobs displacedNet growth or declineJobs createdProjected job creation(blue)and displacement(purple)betwen 2023 and 2027,as a fraction of current employment,for the global employee data set
271、 studied in this report.The projected net growth or decline for each occupation in the next five years(diamonds)calculated by subtracting the two fractions.The projected structural labour-market churn for each occupation in the next five years is the sum of the two fractions,and is indicated by the
272、full width of the bars.Averaged across occupations,structural labour-market churn represents 23%of current employment.SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023New jobs and lost jobs,2023-2027FIGURE 3.3Bank Tellers and Related ClerksPostal Service ClerksCashiers and Ticket ClerksData Entr
273、y ClerksAdministrative and Executive SecretariesMaterial-Recording and Stock-Keeping ClerksAccounting,Bookkeeping and Payroll ClerksLegislators and OfficialsStatistical,Finance and Insurance ClerksDoor-To-Door Sales Workers,News and Street.Security GuardsCredit and Loans OfficersClaims Adjusters,Exa
274、miners,and InvestigatorsSoftware testersRelationship ManagersShop SalespersonsBuilding Caretakers and HousekeepersInsurance UnderwritersSocial Media StrategistClient Information and Customer Service WorkersTelemarketersAccountants and AuditorsCompliance OfficersSocial Work and Counselling Profession
275、alsParalegals and Legal AssistantsPrimary School and Early Childhood TeachersSales and Purchasing Agents and BrokersAssembly and Factory WorkersBusiness Services and Administration ManagersCar,Van and Motorcycle DriversHuman Resources SpecialistsData Warehousing SpecialistsLawyersFarmworkers and Lab
276、orersManaging Directors and Chief ExecutivesMaterials EngineersRegulatory and Government Associate.Food Processing and Related Trades WorkersRecruiters and technical recruitersStrategic AdvisorsManufacturing,Mining,Construction,and.ICT Operations and User Support TechniciansSales Representatives,Who
277、lesale and.Product ManagersGeneral and Operations ManagersManagement and Organisation AnalystsSales and Marketing ProfessionalsTraining and Development SpecialistsElectronics and Telecommunications Installers.Chemical Processing Plant OperatorsOrganisational Development SpecialistsSolar Energy Insta
278、llation and System EngineersElectrotechnology EngineersHeavy Truck and Bus DriversIndustrial and Production EngineersAdvertising and Public Relations ProfessionalsArchitects and SurveyorsFull Stack EngineersProject ManagersApplication DevelopersDatabase and Network ProfessionalsTechnical Specialists
279、Building Frame and Related Trades WorkersRisk Management SpecialistsSoftware and Applications DevelopersProcess Automation SpecialistsDatabase ArchitectsDevops EngineersBusiness Development ProfessionalsCommercial and Industrial DesignersData EngineersDigital Marketing and Strategy SpecialistsE-comm
280、erce SpecialistsBlockchain DevelopersDigital Transformation SpecialistsAgricultural Equipment OperatorsBig Data SpecialistsRobotics EngineersData Analysts and ScientistsFinTech EngineersInformation Security AnalystsBusiness Intelligence AnalystsSustainability SpecialistsInvestment Fund ManagersConst
281、ruction LaborersBuilding Finishers and Related Trades WorkersPower Production Plant OperatorsMechanics and Machinery RepairersMechanical EngineersFinancial and Investment AdvisersChefs and CooksChemical EngineersSpecial Education TeachersElectrical Equipment Installers and RepairersLight Truck or De
282、livery Services DriversSheet and Structural Metal Workers,Moulders.Graphic DesignersSupply Chain and Logistics SpecialistsCivil EngineersRenewable Energy EngineersUniversity and Higher Education TeachersInternet of Things SpecialistsVocational Education TeachersFinancial AnalystsSustainability Speci
283、alistsAI and Machine Learning SpecialistsFuture of Jobs Report 202330Agricultural equipment operatorsHeavy truck and bus driversVocational education teachersMechanics and machinery repairersBusiness development professionalsBuilding frame and related trades workersUniversity and higher education tea
284、chersElectrotechnology engineersSheet and structural metal workers,moulders and weldersSpecial education teachersLight truck or delivery services driversDigital transformation specialistsConstruction laborersSustainability specialistsDigital marketing and strategy specialists01.03.0Total growth in 5
285、 years(millions of jobs)1.52.02.5Largest job growth,millionsFIGURE 3.4SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023.Top roles ordered by largest net job growth,calculated based on ILO Occupation Employment statistics and growth reported by organizations surveyedAccounting,bookkeeping and pay
286、roll clerksAdministrative and executive secretariesAssembly and factory workersBank tellers and related clerksBuilding caretakers and housekeepersBusiness services and administration managersCashiers and ticket clerksClient information and customer service workersData entry clerksDoor-to-door sales
287、workers,news and street vendors,and related workersMaterial-recording and stock-keeping clerksPostal service clerksSecurity guardsShop salespersonsTelemarketers-10.0-7.5Total decline in 5 years(millions of jobs)-5.0-2.50Largest job decline,millionsFIGURE 3.5SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs
288、Survey 2023.Top roles ordered by the largest net jobs reduction,calculated based on ILO Occupation Employment statistics and growth reported by organizations surveyedFuture of Jobs Report 202331or informal employment.The conclusions derived for this subset of data should thus not be treated as compr
289、ehensive,but provide useful insights on selected segments of the workforce.Figures 3.4 and 3.5 present data on jobs that are expected to see the most absolute growth and decline,and survey results suggest that the highest growth from 20232027 will be for Agricultural Equipment Operators,Heavy Truck
290、and Bus Drivers,and Vocational Education Teachers.Data Entry Clerks;Administrative and Executive Secretaries;and Accounting,Bookkeeping,and Payroll Clerks are expected to suffer the greatest reduction in employment.Combined,these three roles make up over half of the total expected job destruction.Ov
291、erall,our analysis suggests that 69 million jobs will be created and 83 million jobs destroyed,leading to a contraction of global labour markets of 14 million jobs in the next five years at the present rate of change,though this figure is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as it is not holistic
292、.The sum of these changes yields the estimated overall structural labour-market churn of 23%of the current global workforce the data is able to cover.Figure 3.6 plots these absolute net growth estimates versus churn for each role for which the survey has sufficient data.The jobs that appear towards
293、the top of the graph are expected to be growing,in largest absolute numbers,while those at the bottom of the graph are expected to be declining,in largest absolute numbers.Jobs clustered around zero net growth are expected to churn in the next five years,with displaced jobs replaced by newly created
294、 jobs in roughly equal numbers.The fraction of the total number of jobs which is expected to churn between displacement and creation increases along the horizontal axis.As the concept of labour-market churn does not distinguish between job creation and job displacement,jobs can also diverge to subst
295、antial expected job creation in the top right of the figure or substantial expected job displacement in the bottom right of the figure.The absence of data points at zero net growth and zero churn shows that respondents expect no job to experience labour-market stability in the next five years.Most P
296、rojected structural labour-market churn from 2023 to 2027,as a proportion of the current workforce.Projected net growth or decline in employment from 2023 to 2027,in millions of employees.Five-year structural churn(%)Net growth of labour force(millions of employees)-3-90102050-60+33040Advanced Techn
297、ologyAgricultureDigital AccessEducationEnvironmentalInteractions and Record KeepingOtherRepair,Labour,and FactorySupply Chain and LogisticsData entry clerksAssembly and factory workersAdministrative andexecutive secretariesAccounting,bookkeepingand payroll clerksCashiers and ticket clerksDatabase ar
298、chitectsAI and machinelearning specialistsHeavy truck and bus driversSustainability specialistsDigital transformation specialistsVocational education teachersSolar energy installation andsystem engineersAgricultural equipmentoperatorsElectrotechnology engineersProjected churn and net growth/decline
299、of employment 2023-2027,by occupationFIGURE 3.6SourceWorld Economic Forum,Future of Jobs Survey 2023;International Labour Organization,ILOSTAT.Future of Jobs Report 202332occupations in sectors covered by the survey data set should at present expect to experience relative stability in overall employ
300、ment numbers,but a structural churn between 10%and 40%over the next five years.In analyzing the patterns in job growth,decline and churn,seven groups of related jobs emerge,being collectively impacted by similar trends,either positively or negatively.The following sections explore the developments i
301、n these seven job groups.Digital access and digital trade enabled jobsAs noted in Chapter 2,86%of respondents expect broadening digital access to transform their organization,with 52%expecting it to create job growth and 19%expecting decline as a result.When combined with data on jobs trends,this ap
302、pears to drive expectations of job growth in digital-trade related jobs and a reduction in roles where more digitalized global interactions cause aspects of face-to-face services and record-keeping to become less necessary.For example,E-commerce Specialists,Digital Transformation Specialists,and Dig
303、ital Marketing and Strategy Specialists are expected to increase by 25-35%,leading to an increase of 2 million jobs.This growth expectation is not consistent across regions however,with South Asia expecting these roles to grow fastest at over 30%,and Sub-Saharan Africa the slowest at 15%.Respondents
304、 expect this growth on average to be faster for Digital Transformation Specialists in China(32%)and slower in Japan(23%).The decline of face-to-face and record-keeping roles is consistent across industries,but most pronounced in Information Technology and Digital Communications,at around 50%,Financi
305、al Services(around 40%),and Supply Chain and Transportation(around 40%).Other industries that show relatively consistent decline include Education and Training(30%),Energy and Materials(35%),Infrastructure(20%),Manufacturing(30%),Professional Services(30%),and Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goods(
306、20%).More specifically,respondents expect to see 25-35%less demand for Cashiers and Ticket Clerks;Data-entry Clerks;Accounting,Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks;and Secretaries.The trend for Data Entry Clerks is consistent throughout the world,however it is particularly pronounced in Brazil(46%),and sl
307、ightly less prevalent in some high-income countries such as Germany,the United States,Singapore and the United Kingdom,at around 25%.Similar to Accounting,Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks,this trend is global,but particularly pronounced in Japan,Italy and the United States.Since these are currently po
308、pular occupations,these expectations could result in a decline of 26 million jobs globally.Energy transition and climate-change mitigation jobsAnother area survey respondents expect to grow quickly,which currently employs a relatively small number of people,are jobs in renewable energy and those rel
309、ated to climate change mitigation.This is reflected in almost universal expectations of growth for Renewable Energy Engineers and Solar Energy Installation and System Engineers among respondents who identified these as common roles in their organisation.The same holds true for Sustainability Special
310、ists and Environmental Protection Professionals that are expected to grow by 33%and 34%respectively,translating to growth of approximately 1 million jobs.This is in line with business leaders expectations for the green transition and climate-mitigation investments to drive job growth as outlined in
311、Chapter 2.This expectation continues the growth in green jobs that labour markets around the world have witnessed in the past four years,as indicated by additional research conducted by LinkedIn for this years Future of Jobs Report(see Box 3.1).Advanced technology jobsAdoption of frontier technologi
312、es is also driving job growth across three job families that currently do not employ large numbers of people:A 30-35%increase(1.4 million)in demand for roles such as Data Analysts and Scientists,Big Data Specialists,Business Intelligence Analysts,Database and Network Professionals,and Data Engineers
313、 that is driven by advances and growth in adoption of frontier technologies which rely on big data.This expectation of growth in these roles is common across countries,but particularly prevalent in China,where growth is expected to be closer to 45%.Industries expecting high growth in these roles inc
314、lude Financial Services(31%),Retail and Wholesale of Consumer Goods(37%),and Supply Chain and Transportation(42%),while expectations are more measured for Information Technology and Digital Communications,at just 8%.Demand for AI and Machine Learning Specialists is expected to grow by 40%,or 1 milli
315、on jobs,as the usage of AI and machine learning drives continued industry transformation.Recent research on Generative AI indicates it may affect a significant proportion of total worker tasks.49 However,this does not distinguish between tasks being augmented vs automated.This research also finds th
316、at this is most likely to affect higher wage roles and jobs with greater barriers to entry.A 31%increase in demand for Information-Security Future of Jobs Report 202333Trends in green jobsBOX 3.1Green jobs,and a workforce with the skills to fill them,are essential for meeting climate targets.Drawing
317、 on data provided by LinkedIn,this years Future of Jobs Report assesses how employers and employees are responding to the green transition.Employers have increased green job hiring rates,with year-on-year green job growth exceeding the overall hiring rate growth every year since 2019,as shown in Fig
318、ure B3.1.This has resulted in sustainability jobs making up three of the top ten fastest growing roles on the LinkedIn platform over the last four years,including Sustainability Analysts,Sustainability Specialists,and Sustainability Managers.Meanwhile the proportion of the labour force reporting gre
319、en skills is rising to meet the increased demand,growing by almost 40%since 2015,from 9%to 13%.Drawing further on LinkedIns data,we discover that the Manufacturing and Oil and Gas sectors have the highest levels of green skill intensity.This is an encouraging sign as it could enable a green-skills-l
320、ed approach to decarbonizing these emissions-intensive industries.This is consistent across the 50 countries included in the analysis,with Austria,Germany,Italy,the United States and Spain leading the way in Manufacturing,while India,the United States and Finland feature at the top of the list for O
321、il and Gas.With governments playing a key role driving and facilitating the green transition,countries including Australia,Argentina,Sweden,the Netherlands and the United States are leading green skills intensity in Government and the Public Sector.This relatively high green skills intensity may ena
322、ble these countries to accelerate their green transition.Industries with lower green skills intensity include Finance,Technology and Information and Media.Indexed year-on-yearhiring rate01.52.01.020222020Green Job Hiring RateOverall Hiring Rate200190.5Hiring rates for green jobs and the g
323、lobal sample as a fraction of the previous years hiring rate for that sample.1 indicates no change.SourceLinkedIn.Growth in annual hiring rates for green jobsFIGURE B3.1Analysts,leading to 0.2 million additional jobs.This is driven by increased adoption of encryption and cybersecurity which aligns w
324、ith findings of the World Economic Forums 2023 Global Risks Report50 that widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity are a top 10 global risk in both the short and long term and yet there is a current global shortage of 3 million cybersecurity professionals.Education jobsJobs in the Education indust
325、ry are expected to grow at around 10%during the 20232027 period.With many people employed in these roles,this growth could lead to 3 million additional jobs for Vocational Education Teachers and University and Higher Education Teachers over the 2023-2027 period.This growth is particularly prevalent
326、in non-G20 countries where it is expected to be about 50%higher than in G20 countries.Limitations in the Future of Jobs sample for organizations operating in the Education and Training sector indicate caution should be applied when interpreting these figures.Two potential drivers for growth in these
327、 roles are:the high rate of adoption of education and workforce development technologies identified in Chapter 2 and organizations efforts to close skills gaps in their workforces(see Chapter 5).In collaboration with LinkedInFuture of Jobs Report 202334Should survey respondents forecast growth in ed
328、ucation jobs materialize in the next five years,this would continue the trend in social jobs that labour markets around the world witnessed in the past three years,as highlighted by research conducted by Indeed for this years Future of Jobs Report(see Box 3.2).Agriculture jobsJobs for Agricultural p
329、rofessionals,especially Agricultural Equipment Operators,are expected to see an increase of 30%.Given the current employment levels for these roles,this could lead to an additional 3 million jobs.This increased demand may be driven by the combined effect of several trends such as supply chains short
330、ening and input costs rising,as well as the increasing use of agricultural technologies,and increasing investments in climate change adaptation.Many Agricultural workers are employed in organizations that are underrepresented in the Future of Jobs Survey,so these numbers should also be interpreted w
331、ith care.These workers can also expect to be less impacted by generative AI according to research on the impact of Large Language Models on the Labour Market.51Repairers,factory-workers and labourersWith uncertain impacts from increased uptake of frontier technologies and non-humanoid robots,such as
332、 drones and industrial automation(see Chapter 2),there is a mixed outlook for Mechanics and Machinery Repairers,Construction Labourers,and Assembly and Factory Workers.For Mechanics and Machinery Repairers,almost as many respondents expect a declining outlook as a growing one.However,the relative si
333、ze of growth and decline that respondents expect,and the large total employment in the role,means this is one of the largest-growing roles in absolute terms at around 1.9 million additional jobs expected.This growth is concentrated in non-G20 countries,where it is expected to be around 17%,whereas G20 countries expect to see a 1%net decline.The regional picture is mixed,with employers in Europe ex