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1、01Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Gold Demand TrendsQ1 20235 May 2023|www.gold.orgHighlightsThe LBMA Gold Price(PM)averaged US$1,890/oz during the quarter,marginally higher y/y.The price was over 10%higher than the previous quarters average,almost matching the Q320 record high.China saw a strong relief ra
2、lly in the first post-COVID quarter of unfettered consumer spending.The recovering domestic economy and healthy income growth reignited domestic consumption,while the eye-catching gold price performance spurred investment interest.Indian demand fell sharply as local gold prices applied the brakes.Re
3、cord high and volatile domestic gold prices discouragedboth investment and jewelleryconsumption during the quarter.Investment dominates the outlook for 2023.We continue to see healthy upside for investment this year,while the picture for fabrication(jewellery and technology)is more muted.Further rob
4、ust central bank buying is expected,albeit below 2022s record.Modest growth is likely in both mine production and recycling.For more information please contact:researchgold.orgMixed picture for gold demand in Q1 Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrast
5、ed with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India.Q1 gold demand(excluding OTC)was 13%lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes(t).Inclusive of OTC,total gold demand strengthened 1%y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment consistent with investor positioning in the futures market offset weakness
6、in some areas.1 Demand from central banks experienced significant growth during the quarter.Official sector institutions remained keen and committed buyers of gold,adding 228t to global reserves.Bar and coin investment gained 5%y/y to 302t,concealing some large regional variations.In contrast,net ne
7、gative demand for ETFs,although modest at-29t,generated a hefty y/y decline compared with the sizable inflows seen in Q122.Global jewellery consumption was virtually flat at 478t.Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption as stock building added just over 30t to global inventories.Gold use in the te
8、chnology sector continued to suffer from the challenging economic climate.Demand slumped to 70t the second lowest quarter in our data series back to 2000.Modest growth in both mine production(+2%)and recycling(+5%)led to a marginal increase in Q1 total gold supply to 1,174t.The uptick in recycling w
9、as largely a function of higher gold prices.-6008001,0001,2001,4001,600Q118Q318Q119Q319Q120Q320Q121Q321Q122Q322Q123TonnesMixed picture for gold demand in Q1 2023Gold demand(5-year quarterly average)Jewellery fabricationTechnologyTotal bar and coin demandETFs and similar productsCentral
10、 banks and other institutionsData to 31 March 2023.Source:Metals Focus,World Gold Council1 In our data model,OTC&other captures demand in the OTC market,for which data is not readily available.It also captures changes to inventories on commodity exchanges,unobserved changes to fabrication inventorie
11、s and any statistical residual.02Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Gold supply and demandTonnesQ122Q222Q322Q422Q123Y-o-y changeSupplyMine production843.1894.4956.3955.7856.0 2%Net producer hedging25.92.3-25.9-13.08.1 -69%Total mine supply869.0896.6930.4942.7864.0 -1%Recycled gold296.2285.3268.6290.5310.4 5%
12、Total Supply1,165.11,182.01,198.91,233.21,174.4 1%DemandJewellery fabrication516.4492.3582.3601.3508.6 -2%Jewellery consumption475.3458.4526.1629.7477.9 1%Jewellery inventory41.133.956.2-28.430.7 -25%Technology81.078.577.072.370.0 -13%Electronics66.264.663.258.056.0 -15%Other Industrial12.011.311.31
13、1.911.6 -3%Dentistry2.72.62.52.42.4 -12%Investment558.4213.8103.9250.6273.7 -51%Total bar&coin demand287.7261.2348.0340.3302.4 5%Physical Bar demand183.6172.8225.6222.4181.9 -1%Official Coin84.670.889.489.096.5 14%Medals/Imitation Coin19.517.633.028.924.1 23%ETFs&similar products270.7-47.4-244.1-89.
14、6-28.7 Central banks&other inst.82.7158.6458.6378.6228.4 176%Gold demand1,238.5943.21,221.81,302.81,080.8 -13%OTC and other-73.3238.8-22.8-69.793.6 Total Demand1,165.11,182.01,198.91,233.21,174.4 1%LBMA Gold Price,US$/oz1,877.21,870.61,728.91,725.91,890.2 1%Source:ICE Benchmark Administration,Metals
15、 Focus,World Gold Council 03Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023OutlookInvestment to dominate y/y changes as fabrication demand faces growing risks.Global gold ETF demand is in need of a catalyst to see meaningful gains and we have revised down our midpoint slightly due to early European weakness.But globally
16、,we expect positive demand and ETFs to retain significant upside potential from recession risk and waning interest rate headwinds Bar and coin demand is likely to continue at a good pace as US,South East Asian and Middle Eastern demand outweighs the notable slowdown in European demand in Q1.Indian w
17、eakness also weighs on our FY expectation Fabrication demand has been resilient,spurred on by Chinas reopening.But we caution that a global growth slowdown is likely to impact demand as the year progresses.Technology demand is set to remain languid in the face of inventory drawdowns and weakening en
18、d-consumer demand.As a result we have revised down our FY estimate slightly Central banks have started the year on the front foot and we have revised both our midpoint and downside risk forecasts upwards,albeit still significantly below the record 2022 level Supply is likely to rise,both from mine p
19、roduction and recycling.Near-record prices have not resulted in a high absolute level of recycling,despite a strong q/q uptick in Q1,suggesting that a geopolitical risk premium has encouraged households and individuals to hold on to their gold.Q1 strength is expected to fade but still yield a y/y ga
20、in for recycling and supply in aggregate.-800-600-6008001,000InvestmentFabricationCentral banksSupplyTonnes,y-o-yExpected change in annual demand,2023 vs 2022*Data to 31 March 2023.Fabrication combines global jewellery and technology demand.Investment includes ETFs,bar and coin and OTC
21、 demand.Supply includes mine production and recycling.We have omitted hedging and assume it to be unchanged.Source:World Gold Council04Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023OutlookInvestment:European weakness more than offset by strength elsewhereThe investment baton is being passed from bar and coin demand to
22、ETFs and OTC demand more slowly than we had envisioned at the start of the year.North American gold ETFs have seen tentative inflows in recent months,with the March surge that followed US banking failures driving them into positive territory for the quarter.We expect quarterly net flows to be positi
23、ve going forward as a ceiling for interest rates appears more certain.Also,slowing growth has caused equity valuations to look overextended and geopolitical risks remain as elevated as they were in 2022,if not more so.But a trigger for sizeable inflows remains elusive,and European ETF weakness may c
24、ontinue to weigh on the global number for a little longer.Although early warning signs of the highly anticipated developed market recession continue to provide upside support,the recession itself may not materialise until later in the year,kicking the can for ETF inflows down the road a little.Altho
25、ugh gold ETF demand has been disappointing,OTC demand turned positive in Q1,mirroring a c.150t increase in futures net long positions;and global bar and coin demand has shown surprising resilience,too.Chinas Q1 bar and coin demand was strong and this strength is likely to continue.Historically,China
26、s credit impulse a measure of new credit creation in an economy was closely associated with bar and coin demand before decoupling during the lockdown.The impulse has recently turned positive after spending most of the last 18 months in negative territory.In addition,official purchases have added to
27、positive sentiment for gold domestically.This is likely to bode well for demand in this segment.Indian bar and coin demand was weak in Q1 as local prices hit record levels.Absent a price retracement,it is likely to stay weak this year,particularly as both growth and inflation are expected to moderat
28、e.Western demand proved a mixed bag with strength in the US more than offset by significant weakness in Europe.Recession fears are likely a dominant driver of bar and coin demand in the US,while in Europe a return to positive real interest rates for German Bunds in December,along with the high euro
29、gold price,has dampened further gold accumulation.We believe this weakness in Europe to be temporary,considering the risks ahead.Given strength in the global number,and the return of OTC investment,we have modestly raised our midpoint for both full-year bar and coin demand and total investment.Fabri
30、cation demand:A decent start to the year but risks lie to the downsideChina has responded as expected.Jewellery demand in Q1 was strong and should continue to benefit as the year progresses.But we caution that discretionary spending might be directed elsewhere as the reopening takes hold,as occurred
31、 in Europe post-COVID lockdowns.Foreign travel has started to return,albeit slowly,and this,among other factors,could eat into jewellery demand over the course of the next few quarters.Western jewellery demand in Q1 has been consistent with previous quarters but the spectre of a growth slowdown puts
32、 the emphasis on downside risk for the full year.Jewellery demand in India is expected to face the same headwinds as bar and coin demand for the rest of the year.A slowdown in growth and inflation coupled with high domestic prices are likely to keep demand muted,although there are early signs that c
33、onsumers have started to adjust to the higher price.The technology sector has been unsurprisingly weak.The issues we highlighted in the last Gold Demand Trends continue to dampen demand and are likely to persist until the second half of the year when inventory drawdowns run their course and more nor
34、mal levels of manufacturing resume.Although Chinas reopening is a welcome development for chip manufacturing,it is likely that end-user demand will slow and sanctions will remain in place while China and the US continue their economic skirmish.05Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023OutlookCentral banks:Another
35、 strong year aheadCentral banks have continued to surprise to the upside.The net buying rate in Q1 sets the tone for a higher midpoint for our full-year estimate.We have also raised the downside range limit,although we maintain that this year is very unlikely to match 2022.Limited information and de
36、layed reporting mean that a broad range of outcomes are possible,both to the upside and the down.But intentions have consistently been a leading indicator for buying over the last few years and our central bank surveys suggest little change to the positive trend.Supply:Slight upside to mine producti
37、on and recyclingWe have revised our outlook for supply up slightly,primarily on higher production.Project expansion in North America,a reduction in seasonal variation in China and an end to strikes in South Africa are likely to provide a little more upside to primary production growth for the full y
38、ear.Our midpoint for supply has also been raised slightly,due to a modest rise in hedging,via finance-related forward selling.Recycling has been evident in India and Europe,both of which show a quarterly increase;the former a likely result of a higher domestic price and the latter a combination of h
39、igher prices and moderate economic distress.But the absolute levels of recycling are not high,despite record prices.As was the case in Q4,investors appear willing to hold on to their gold in the face of elevated geopolitical risks;this is particularly evident in the Middle East.We have revised up ou
40、r midpoint forecast for recycling only modestly as we expect Q1 strength to fade.We have also slightly reduced the upside risk now that a possible developed-market recession has been pushed back to the latter part of the year.06Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023JewelleryGlobal jewellery demand totalled 478t
41、 unchanged y/y as growth in China met with price-driven weakness in India.Total jewellery consumption held steady against Q122,but was 24%lower q/q due to seasonal effects China saw vigorous buying:demand was 11%higher y/y at 198t as the removal of zero-COVID restrictions sparked consumers into life
42、 High and volatile gold prices proved challenging for jewellery consumers in several markets,most notably India,which saw the weakest Q1 since 2020.Global gold jewellery demand for Q1 came in at 478t,almost exactly in line with that of Q122.This was 5%lower than the five-year quarterly average of 50
43、1t.China was the clear outperformer during the quarter,where consumers embarked on a relief-driven shopping spree.India saw a very different quarter,with demand quashed by record local gold prices.Elsewhere the higher gold price generally kept a lid on jewellery buying,although some markets saw a ju
44、mp in investment-motivated demand.ChinaChinese consumers bought 198t of gold jewellery in Q1,41%of the global total.This was the highest first quarter for Chinese jewellery demand since 2015 as Chinese consumers used their wallets to celebrate finally being unleashed from restrictive zero-COVID meas
45、ures.The recovering domestic economy further ignited demand:Q1 GDP increased 4.5%y/y and household income grew 4%in real terms.2 TonnesQ122Q123Y-o-y changeWorld total475.3477.9 1%India94.278.0 -17%China,P.R.:Mainland177.4197.7 11%Source:Metals Focus,World Gold Council96986-Jan1
46、6-Jan30-Jan13-Feb27-Feb13-Mar27-MarIndex levelUSD*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:ICE Benchmark administration,Refinitiv Datastream,World Gold CouncilEURJPYGBPINRRMBTRYStrength in Q1 gold prices across all key currencies accelerated in March*2 National Bureau of Statistics of China,18 April 2023.07Gold
47、 Demand Trends|Q1 2023JewelleryPent-up demand from previous quarters also helped.Wedding gold jewellery demand improved amid the relaxation of COVID-related restrictions;the wedding industry has reportedly been operating at full capacity so far in 2023.And gold jewellery buying was likely spurred by
48、 investment motives.The tendency to save among Chinese consumers remains at historically high levels,and golds financial value attracted consumer attention.Jewellery(mainly gold)was the second strongest category for y/y sales growth in Q1,as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics.3 Hard pure
49、gold jewellery products soared in popularity in Q1.The hardness of these lightweight products enables stylish designs,which are key to their rising popularity,along with their affordability.Enhanced pricing transparency also helped reassure consumers who remain cautious about spending;retailers are
50、increasingly adopting the per-gram pricing method for these products instead of the per-piece model which may have masked the true mark-ups charged to consumers.Heritage gold jewellery continued to enjoy a vital share of the market.Culture-rich designs,along with the investment motives of jewellery
51、consumers,sustained demand for these chunky products.On the other hand,18K and 22K products continued to lose market share to hard pure gold products.Within both the Heritage gold and the hard pure gold jewellery ranges,products with enamel and gem inlays increased in popularity.Looking ahead,we exp
52、ect to see the usual seasonal dip in Q2 jewellery demand in China.And should very elevated local gold prices persist,they could hinder gold jewellery demand.An additional threat comes from the potential for consumers to allocate more of their budgets to travel and entertainment,similar to the post-C
53、OVID trend that has been experienced in Western markets.On the other hand,the combination of continued domestic economic recovery and pent-up wedding jewellery demand is likely to provide further support.We believe that hard pure gold products will benefit more than other product lines in Q2,thanks
54、to their affordability,seasonal suitability and innovative designs.3 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in March 2023().-20-15-10-5051015ChinaEurope ex CISUnited StatesMiddle EastASEANIndiaY/y%change*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:Metals Focus,World Gold CouncilJewellery demand growth in China stole
55、 the show in Q1*08Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023India Gold jewellery demand of 78t was the weakest for a first quarter in India since 2020.Demand was 17%lower compared with Q122.And,coming on the heels of an exceptionally strong Q4,the Q1 figure generated a stark 65%q/q decline.In context of the record
56、high local gold price,it was unsurprising to see such lacklustre jewellery demand.Indian consumers are keenly aware of and sensitive to moves in the local gold price.We had already reported that demand in Q4 slowed sharply as the price rocketed in December,and this trend continued into January as lo
57、cal prices reached fresh highs.The price pullback in February generated a short-lived recovery,thanks to some bargain-hunting.The price has also encouraged a rise in smuggling activity,incentivised by an avoidance of import duties.This has reportedly encouraged demand in smaller cities,and among ind
58、ependent retailers,where cash purchases are more commonplace.18k jewellery continued to gain popularity during the quarter,particularly among younger,more budget-conscious consumers.Studded jewellery continues to slowly gain market share;the higher margins on these products allow retailers to incent
59、ivise purchases through promotions.At the trade level,large retailers performed relatively well during the quarter,thanks to their ability to implement aggressive marketing campaigns.The outlook is for demand to remain muted over the coming quarter.Risks remain to the downside until we see evidence
60、of healthy monsoon rainfall.Rural demand a key source of gold jewellery demand remains fragile and persistent inflation will likely continue to impact consumer sentiment.The historically high gold price creates a further obstacle to demand,although there are early signs that consumers have started t
61、o adjust:early estimates suggest that buying during the highly auspicious Akshaya Tritaya festival was only modestly weaker compared with last years exceptionally strong levels.4 00500600700800Q118Q318Q119Q319Q120Q320Q121Q321Q122Q322Q123TonnesChinaIndiaRest of world*Data to 31 March 2023.
62、Source:Metals Focus,World Gold CouncilExcluding India and China,jewellery demand in the rest of the world was stable y/y*Jewellery4 Akshaya Tritaya is one of the most auspicious occasions in Hindu religion.Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya is believed to bring good fortune and prosperity.09Gold Demand
63、Trends|Q1 2023Middle East and TurkeyQ1 jewellery demand in Turkey was 20%higher y/y at 9t.But the q/q comparison showed a 10%drop as demand was affected by the devastating earthquakes that hit the country in February.Investment motives continued to fuel jewellery demand during Q1,with high-purity 22
64、k sales performing much better than 14k.Jewellery demand was mixed across the Middle Eastern region in Q1;higher prices dampened demand in some markets but encouraged quasi-investment buying in others.Iran(-15%)and the UAE(-22%)both saw weaker y/y demand,with gold price rises in the former magnified
65、 by local currency depreciation against the dollar.Currency weakness was less of a deterrent in Egypt:demand here increased 6%y/y as gold jewellery benefited from safe-haven demand.US and EuropeQ1 gold jewellery demand in the US slipped 4%y/y to 26t.Demand was healthy in comparison with longer-term
66、levels:first quarter demand for the previous five years averaged 25t.Rising concerns around likely recession dampened consumer sentiment,supported by the fact that the lower-end was the weakest part of the market.Nevertheless,despite an increasingly challenging economic climate,demand is supported b
67、y continued strength in the jobs market and by the number of weddings remaining elevated due to the post-COVID backlog.Jewellery demand in Europe was 11t,unchanged from Q122.Although this was below pre-COVID levels,the performance was robust in light of the higher euro gold price.Improved tourism re
68、portedly supported modest growth in France and Italy.ASEAN marketsOn the face of it an 18%y/y decline in Vietnamese gold jewellery demand suggests a weak quarter.But this was partly due to strong base effects Q122 was the strongest first quarter since 2007.And Q1 demand of 5t was comfortably higher
69、than average quarterly levels for the five years preceding the pandemic.That said,demand would have been stronger had there not been a sharp slowdown in economic growth during Q1.Buying was healthy during the Lunar New Year celebrations,before tailing off in February and March as the gold price rose
70、.Rising gold prices and cost of living pressures were behind a 6%y/y decline in Thailands Q1 jewellery demand.In fact,the surging gold price encouraged consumers to sell back existing holdings of old gold jewellery.Demand in rural communities was reportedly more sluggish than in urban areas,due to a
71、 lagged economic recovery in those regions.Indonesia bucked the regional trend with a 12%y/y rise in Q1 demand to 6t.A relatively robust domestic economy boosted consumer sentiment,which underpinned demand.Nevertheless,the market remains far smaller than it was before the pandemic and the rising pri
72、ce will likely limit demand going forward.Rest of AsiaGold jewellery demand in South Korea was a relatively paltry 3t in Q1,the second-weakest quarter for more than 10 years and 23%lower y/y.High gold prices,at a time when rising living costs and interest rates are squeezing disposable incomes,weigh
73、ed on demand.In contrast,demand in Japan was fractionally higher y/y at 3t.Demand was more robust than expected,particularly given the rising gold price.Decent demand for kihei chains(plain,heavy gold chains)suggests that demand was supported by quasi-investment.AustraliaJewellery demand was bang in
74、 line with year-earlier levels at a little over 2t.In value terms,jewellery consumers spent AU$210mn(US$143mn)on gold jewellery,a 7%increase on the AU$196mn(US$142mn)of Q122.5 Jewellery5 Calculated using the average quarterly LBMA Gold Price(PM).10Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023InvestmentQ1 saw diverging
75、 trends in gold investment demand:a small decline in gold ETF holdings versus hearty bar and coin buying.Investment demand of 274t was up 9%on the previous quarter,but 51%lower y/y Holdings of global gold ETFs fell slightly during Q1(-29t);outflows in January and February were partially reversed by
76、inflows in March Global bar and coin investment exceeded 300t for a third consecutive quarter the first time this has happened since 2013.Q1 witnessed a similar pattern of investment demand as in the previous quarter:bar and coin investment remained in rude health compared with outflows in ETFs and
77、modest growth in OTC and futures.Sentiment in the more institutional segment turned markedly more positive in March as serious cracks emerged in the banking industry propelling the gold price higher.As well as monthly inflows into ETFs,March also saw a notable rebound in COMEX net longs,which ended
78、the quarter at 622t the highest for 10 months,although positioning remains below the average levels in 2021(654t)and 2020(872t).ETFsQ1 saw net disinvestment of 29t from global physically-backed gold ETFs,equivalent to a US$1.5bn outflow.Although modest,this was the fourth consecutive quarter of net
79、global outflows from gold ETFs and generated a material y/y decline compared with the very notable inflows of Q122.But the quarter ended on a positive note:January and February outflows were followed by a March reversal the first time in 11 months that ETF holdings increased.And,so far,that positive
80、 trend has continued in April.TonnesQ122Q123Y-o-y changeInvestment558.4273.7 -51%Bar and Coin287.7302.4 5%India41.334.4 -17%China,P.R.:Mainland49.365.9 34%Gold-backed ETFs270.7-28.7 Source:Metals Focus,World Gold Council0500300-300-300400500Q1 17Q317Q118Q318Q119Q319Q120Q320Q
81、121Q321Q122Q322Q123US$bnTonnesNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherAUM(rhs)*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:Bloomberg,Company Filings,ICE Benchmark Administration,World Gold CouncilGlobal gold ETF outfows tapered off to trivial levels in Q1*11Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023InvestmentAs usual,ETF demand varied across
82、 regions.The majority of Q1 outflows came from European-listed products,while Asian funds saw only mild outflows.In contrast,North American-listed ETFs,as well as those listed in Other regions,witnessed inflows during the first quarter of 2023.Funds listed in North America added 10t in Q1,a net infl
83、ow of US$806bn in AUM.Activity in this region was sensitive to moves in the US dollar and rate expectations,with inflows in January and March punctuated by outflows in February.The March banking mini-crisis was a defining factor in encouraging investment,as was with the rising gold price,which promo
84、ted momentum buying.Despite positive demand in March,gold ETFs listed in Europe saw net Q1 disinvestment of 40t.UK-and German-listed funds led the outflows,partly explained by the fact that these are two of the largest markets in the region.Sentiment appeared to be driven by continued substantial ra
85、te hikes across the region.The March recovery was a response to poor stock market performance,systemic risk fears from the banking crisis,and the 6%rise in the euro gold price during the month.Asian-listed gold ETFs saw modest declines.Chinese and Indian funds both generated minor losses(1t),which c
86、ontrasted with small gains in Japan.Among the funds listed in Other regions,Turkey was the standout,with strong bar and coin demand.6Bar and coinInvestors bought 302t of gold bars and coins in Q1,14%above the five-year average and equal to US$18.4bn in value.Strong gold prices which reached record l
87、evels in some markets encouraged some momentum buying.Demand was further fuelled by persistent high inflation,geopolitical risks and concern over contagion in the banking crisis.But demand failed to match the previous quarters levels,as high gold prices encouraged profit-taking and sharp declines we
88、re seen in a few key markets.ChinaQ1 bar and coin investment soared in China.Demand totalled 66t,a 34%jump y/y and a 7%rise q/q,mainly driven by Chinas emergence from the COVID pandemic and the eye-catching gold price performance.Chinese New Year generated robust demand for gold investment,particula
89、rly given the local gold price strength,which outperformed relative to other domestic assets including stocks,bonds and commodities.Additions to official gold holdings reported by the PBoC seemed to further encourage local interest in gold investment,as did elevated global geopolitical tensions.Furt
90、hermore,consumers high tendency to save may also have elevated their interest,as gold has historically been regarded as an effective store of value.Looking ahead,Q2 a traditional low season for domestic gold demand could see stronger than usual buying as investors may pay increasing attention to gol
91、ds role as a safe haven in the environment of heightened geopolitical risk.Consumers tendency to save also remains at a record level,supporting demand for gold over recent quarters.Headwinds may come from seasonality factors and high gold prices,which may deter some new investment.IndiaRecord high a
92、nd volatile local gold prices in Q1 were the key driver of gold investment demand,which was relatively muted at 34t.This resulted in a 17%y/y decline and a steep 40%drop q/q.In comparison with longer-term trends,demand was 14%below the five-year quarterly average.The speed and scale of the rise in t
93、he local gold price deterred fresh buying and instead encouraged profit-taking for many.Furthermore,the low margins on gold investment products,relative to jewellery,meant that retailers concentrated their promotional efforts on the latter.Economic momentum in India remains healthy and the RBI pause
94、d its rate hike cycle.Against this backdrop,the outlook for retail investment is highly dependent on the local gold price.Further volatility,at such extremely high price levels,would continue to act as a deterrent to bar and coin investors and further price gains would likely encourage profit-taking
95、.6 Other regions include Australia,South Africa,Turkey,Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.12Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Middle East and TurkeyBar and coin investment in Turkey reached phenomenal levels in Q1,breaching 50t for the first time on record.Demand increased fivefold y/y and was 32%hig
96、her q/q.In value terms,an unprecedented TL58bn(US$3bn)was invested in gold.Turkish investors continued to seek the safety of gold as runaway inflation persisted:official statistics put CPI at around 50%(with unofficial estimates more than double that).Real rates consequently remain deeply negative,a
97、 fact that has helped golds case as have the impending mid-May elections,the prospect of which further highlights golds safe-haven appeal.All markets across the Middle East recorded growth in Q1 bar and coin demand.Regional investment hit 29t a quarterly total that has been exceeded on only three pr
98、evious occasions.Rampant inflation and currency depreciation in some markets were key drivers,along with momentum buying into the rising gold price.In Egypt,a further currency depreciation(the third in less than a year),together with eye-watering inflation,underpinned the safe-haven and inflation-he
99、dging motives for buying gold.Bar and coin demand doubled y/y to 7t.Iran saw bar and coin investment of 13t 26%higher than the 10t five-year quarterly average.Investment was spurred by a weak domestic currency,which fed through to soaring local gold prices,and extreme inflation.Disruption to the sup
100、ply of gold coins has also pushed premiums up on these products.In Saudi Arabia,retail investment demand reached a seven-year high of 4t.Demand was 39%higher y/y,with investors apparently encouraged by the higher gold price,particularly as gold investment products are not burdened with the higher 15
101、%VAT rate introduced in 2020.The WestThere was a sharp disparity between US and European bar and coin demand in Q1.The banking failure in March lit a fuse under US bar and coin investors,who piled into gold.Investment in Germany,on the other hand,came to a virtual standstill as higher interest rates
102、 increased the opportunity cost of holding gold and high local gold prices encouraged profit-taking.US bar and coin demand jumped 40%q/q a 4%y/y increase to 32t,the fourth strongest quarter in our data series and the highest since 2010.This was almost double the five-year average of 17t.-40-30-20-10
103、01020304050TurkeyChina(Mainland)JapanIranEgyptAustriaAustraliaSwitzerlandIndiaGermanyY/y tonnage chg*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:Metals Focus,World Gold CouncilBiggest y/y changes in bar and coin investment*Investment13Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023The higher gold price continued to stoke interest in g
104、old,although initially at a more measured pace than in recent quarters.The market burst into life in March as the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank put gold squarely in the spotlight.The US Mint reported rocketing coin sales,which reached 288,000 ounces in March the biggest monthly total since Octo
105、ber 1998,when the Y2K safe-haven rush for gold was in full swing.Demand remains healthy amid continued fears about the health of the banking sector,as well as concern around the forthcoming domestic debt ceiling negotiations and more general elevated global geopolitical tensions.Higher premiums on s
106、ilver products are also reportedly supporting some substitution into gold.The Q1 picture for Europe was very different.Demand slumped to 38t,less than half that of Q122 and the lowest quarterly total since the pandemic began.Germany was the clear driver of the regional decline.Demand in this market
107、fell to 13t,the lowest since Q208 and 63%below the five-year average of 34t.The main trigger for the collapse in investment appears to have been the shift back to positive real rates for the first time in nine years,7 due to easing inflation and higher nominal rates.The rising euro gold price in Jan
108、uary also reportedly encouraged profit-taking,with the net result that demand was more or less zero during the month.The banking crisis briefly revitalised demand in March but liquidations remained strong throughout the quarter and this prevented net demand from matching recent levels.Switzerland re
109、corded a significant,but smaller,20%y/y decline.Demand slowed in January and February before returning with a vengeance in March as banking crisis contagion hit home.The smaller markets of France,the UK and Italy bucked this trend and registered modest growth,likely as investors were attracted by th
110、e rising gold price.ASEAN marketsBar and coin demand was mixed across the ASEAN markets covered in GDT.Vietnamese retail investment was down 10%y/y at 13t the lowest first quarter since the pandemic-stricken 2020.The y/y decline partly reflected lower levels of liquidity among investors,whose equity
111、 and real estate investments in the last two years have not performed well.Demand was directed towards chi rings,given the high premiums charged on Saigon Jewellery Company tael bars.8 High gold prices may deter investment in the coming months.Thailand and Indonesia both witnessed y/y growth of 15%i
112、n retail investment.In Thailand,however,this was largely due to the comparison with a very weak base period.Q1 investment was negligible at less than 2t.The q/q comparison reveals an 83%drop as investors stood aside while the price spiked in March.Indonesian bar and coin buying increased to 6t as ri
113、sing gold prices,along with high inflation,encouraged investors.Strong q/q growth(+20%)also reflected the complete removal of the COVID-19 curbs at the end of last year.Rest of AsiaJapan saw a second consecutive quarter of net disinvestment in Q1,as the local gold price reached new record highs.Japa
114、nese investors sold a net 3t of gold bars and coins as they cashed in on their existing holdings.That being said,the modest degree of net selling was somewhat surprising and reflects a healthy underlying level of buying interest.Traditional Japanese investors tend to be older and have legacy holding
115、s of gold bars and coins that they use as a source of liquidity.But growing interest has been reported among a younger cohort of investors who are increasingly interested in gold as an investment.And as the price has reached all-time highs,media interest has likely been generated,further raising gol
116、ds profile.South Korean bar and coin demand softened to 4t,a decline of 15%y/y.While some investors were cautious of buying at relatively high prices,others added to their holdings during price pullbacks,anticipating further price strength.AustraliaOur data series for Australia(back to Q121)has been
117、 revised higher on the basis of new information.Bar and coin demand was healthy at 6t but notably weaker than the very strong 8t of investment seen in Q122.The banking crisis helped to spur demand during March,despite the exceptional price rally during the month.Investment7 German 10-year inflation-
118、linked bond yields turned positive in December 2022 for the first time since Q1 2014.8 Chi rings are plain 24k gold rings and classified as jewellery.They require only crude workmanship and therefore command limited premiums,making them a popular investment proxy.Tael bars are gold bars of 37.5 gram
119、s.14Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Central banksCentral bank demand makes a record-breaking start to 2023.Central bank demand hit 228t in Q1,34%higher than the previous Q1 record set in 2013 This follows the record annual demand of 1,078t in 2022 Buying during the quarter was reported by both emerging an
120、d developed market banks.This is all the more impressive considering it follows the record-breaking pace of demand last year.The rolling four-quarter total jumped significantly to 1,224t in Q1 following massive buying in recent quarters.As with the figures for both Q3 and Q4 2022,data for the curren
121、t quarter contains a significant estimate for unreported activity.Four central banks accounted for the majority of reported purchasing during Q1.10 The Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS)was the largest single buyer during the quarter.The addition of 69t,the first increase in its gold reserves sinc
122、e June 2021,confirms that buying in Q1 was not only the domain of emerging market central banks.Gold reserves at MAS now total 222t,45%higher than at the end of 2022.The Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)disclosed that its gold reserves had risen by 58t.Since recommencing reports of purchases in November 2
123、022,the PBoC has added 120t to its gold reserves,lifting them to 2,068t(4%of total reported gold reserves).TonnesQ122Q123Y-o-y changeCentral banks and other institutions82.7228.4 176%Source:Metals Focus,World Gold Council-30003006009001,2001,500Q110Q112Q114Q116Q118Q120Q122TonnesTonnesNet purchases/s
124、ales(rolling 4-qtr total,rhs)Q123 demand totalled 228t,34%higher thanthe previous record in Q113(171t)-00400500*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:Metals Focus,Refinitiv GFMS,World Gold CouncilCentral bank demand hits Q1 record,maintaining its upward trend*9 Our quarterly central bank demand se
125、ries goes back to 2000.10 Country-level gross sales and purchases are taken from the most recent IMF IFS,or data reported directly by individual central banks where relevant.These may not match the net central bank demand figures published in Gold Demand Trends,as Metals Focus uses additional source
126、s of information to obtain its estimates.Central bank gold buying made a blistering start to 2023.Q1 demand reached 228t.While lower than the figures seen in the previous two quarters this is nonetheless the strongest first quarter on record.9 15Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Central banksTurkey was agai
127、n a big buyer of gold during the quarter:official reserves rose by 30t.Combined purchases of 45t in January and February were offset by a sale in March the first since November 2021.11 15t of gold was sold into the local market following a temporary partial ban on gold bullion imports.12 Overall,thi
128、s lifted total gold reserves to 572t(34%of total reserves).The Reserve Bank of India also added a modest 7t in Q1,lifting its gold reserves to 795t,while the Czech Republic(2t)and the Philippines(1t)were also notable buyers.A significant update during Q1 came from the Central Bank of Russia in a res
129、umption of its reporting of gold reserves,back filling data from the end of January 2022 to date.We can now see that in Q1 Russias official gold reserves fell by 6t,to 2,327t(25%of total reserves).However,even with this decline possibly related to coin-minting the countrys gold reserves are 28t high
130、er than when it stopped reporting last year.Our historical series has been updated to reflect this,along with new information from other central banks.Selling was again much more modest by comparison.The Central Bank of Uzbekistan(-15t)and the National Bank of Kazakhstan(-20t)were the largest seller
131、s of gold during the quarter.As we have noted previously,it is not uncommon for central banks that purchase gold from domestic sources as both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do to be frequent sellers of gold.Cambodia(-10t),UAE(-1t)and Tajikistan(-1t)were the other notable sellers.Croatia reported a 2t re
132、duction in its gold holdings in January but this was a transfer to the European Central Bank which is required of all countries joining the euro area and,as such,it does not represent a decline in the global universe of official sector gold.Our broad expectation for central bank demand in 2023 has,s
133、o far,been borne out.Central bank buying remains robust,with little to indicate that this will change in the short term.As such,we maintain our belief that purchases will continue to outweigh sales as we move into Q2.But the exact pace of this net buying is difficult to determine.There are no guaran
134、tees that the rapid start to the year will be sustained,nor should we discount the potential for surprise activity in both purchases and sales.11 Turkey official sector gold reserves are the sum of central bank owned gold and Treasury gold holdings.This is equivalent to gross gold reserves less all
135、gold held at the central bank in relation to commercial sector gold policies,such as the Reserve Option Mechanism(ROM),collateral,deposits and swaps.Please follow this link for information on this methodology:www.gold.org/download/file/16208/Central-bank-stats-methodology-technical-adjustments.pdf12
136、 070KazakhstanUzbekistanCambodiaRussiaCroatiaUnited Arab EmiratesTajikistanPhilippinesCzech Rep.European Central BankIndiaTurkeySingaporeChina(Mainland)TonnesNet purchasesNet sales*Data to 31 March 2023 where available.Source:IMF IFS,respective central banks,World Gold CouncilNet purchases have heav
137、ily outweighed sales year-to-date*16Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023TechnologyContinued weakness in global electronics sales weighed heavily on demand for gold in the technology sector during Q1.Gold demand in the sector fell by 14%y/y to 70t during Q1 This was primarily driven by a 15%decline in the elec
138、tronics sector on weaker consumer spending Gold used in other industrial applications and dentistry also weakened,in part due to the higher gold price.Gold usage in industrial applications suffered one of the weakest quarters on record as the global cost of living crisis slammed the brakes on consum
139、er spending,translating to sharp inventory reductions across much of the electronics sector.The worst of this should come in the first half of the year before the outlook turns more positive and inventory levels stabilise particularly if inflationary pressures ease,as some forecasts suggest.13 The s
140、econd half may be stronger than H1 even if the US and other economies enter recession as new products are launched and manufacturing ramps back up to more normal levels.ElectronicsGold used in electronics experienced another significant fall during Q1,with major declines registered across all sector
141、s of use.Taking PC and smartphone shipments as examples,analysts at Gartner have forecast14 declines to continue well into 2023 after a weak 2022.In the absence of meaningful new technology consumers are retaining devices for longer,and manufacturers are passing on inflationary component costs to us
142、ers,further dampening demand.TonnesQ122Q123Y-o-y changeTechnology81.070.0 -13%Electronics66.256.0 -15%Other industrial12.011.6 -3%Dentistry2.72.4 -12%Source:Metals Focus,World Gold CouncilDemand for Printed Circuit Boards(PCBs)fell rapidly during Q1.A significant proportion of PCB demand comes from
143、PCs a segment which has experienced rapid inventory reduction.Healthy demand from the automotive sector has provided some support,but not enough to offset the impact of weakened consumer electronics demand.Memory chips,traditionally a steady source of demand,also fell in Q1.Samsung,one of the worlds
144、 largest memory chip manufacturers,reported a 96%fall in Q1 profits and,tellingly,reported that they were“lowering the production of memory chips by a meaningful level,especially the manufacture of products with supply secured”.15Gold used in Light Emitting Diodes(LEDs)fell dramatically,almost halvi
145、ng from year-earlier levels.Even the relatively buoyant automotive sector was unable to steady the ship,with backlight applications also seeing falls.UV-LED demand has been hit by weakness in consumer electronic sales,and this is likely to continue during H1 as many new product launches have been po
146、stponed.In addition,increased uptake of mini-LEDs(which use less gold than traditional LED technology)remains a threat,although this may be slowed by current market weakness.The wireless sector was similarly weak during Q1.This was a direct consequence of the weakening smartphone market the largest
147、source of demand for power amplifiers,16 which are currently at high inventory levels like many other chips.Some relatively niche applications(such as 3D imaging,aerospace/satellite and LIDAR)remained steady,but these are as yet a minor component of demand and unable to cushion falls seen in the pow
148、er amplifier sector.At the aggregate level the four major global electronics fabrication hubs recorded a y/y fall in gold demand during Q1:Japan(16%),South Korea(29%),US(6%)and Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR(19%).Other industrial and dentistryOther industrial applications(which include gold used i
149、n plating as well as decorative items such as gold thread)recorded a smaller but visible y/y decrease of 3%to 12t during Q1,with most countries seeing modest losses.Demand in Italy was down by a notable 5%.In contrast,India saw slight growth as the ongoing post-COVID recovery brought some relief.Den
150、tal demand fell 12%y/y to 2t on price-driven substitution from gold to other precious metals.13 Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth(imf.org).14 Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Device Shipments to Decline 4%in 2023,January 2023.15 Samsung to cut chip production as profits plunge by 96%.16 Power amplifier c
151、hips are used to amplify the signal transmitted from the phones antenna to the cell tower,and are critical components of modern mobile phones.17Gold Demand Trends|Q1 202317 This data may be revised as more data is made available through upcoming company reports.18 Our data partner,Metals Focus,made
152、relatively large revisions to its gold output estimates for 2022,increasing full-year mine production by 39t to 3,649t.The principle cause of this revision was larger than previously expected production from Russia.While collection of data on Russias gold market has become much harder since the inva
153、sion of Ukraine in Q122,available information does indicate mines were much less affected by sanctions than first thought.Following the revision,2022 full-year mine production was just 9t shy of the 2018 record of 3,658t.Total supply rose 1%in Q1 due to record mine production and higher recycling.Q1
154、 mine production increased 2%y/y to a record level for the first quarter Gold recycling volumes rose by 5%y/y as the gold price increased Q1 saw a modest 8t added to the global hedge book owing to higher gold prices.SupplyTotal gold supply increased by 1%y/y in Q123.This was driven by strong mine pr
155、oduction of 856t an all-time Q1 high in our data series,which dates back to 2000 and higher recycling of 310t.Total supply would have increased further except for smaller y/y additions to the aggregate hedge book,but as usual there is room for substantial revisions in this data-set once mining compa
156、nies have released their quarterly reports.Mine productionEarly data suggests that mine production increased 2%y/y to a little more than 856t,17 narrowly beating the previous first quarter record(a shade under 856t)set in Q1 2016.18On a q/q basis,production fell by 10%,due primarily to seasonal fluc
157、tuations:open pit and alluvial operations cut back or stop altogether in some very cold climates,especially in China,Russia and other countries in the former Soviet Union.Meanwhile,South Africas gold mining industry is subject to reduced output during the long summer holidays over Christmas and the
158、New Year.TonnesQ122Q123Y-o-y changeTotal supply1,165.11,174.4 1%Mine production843.1856.0 2%Net producer hedging25.98.1 -69%Recycled gold296.2310.4 5%Source:Metals Focus,World Gold Council00500600700800900Q100Q102Q104Q106Q108Q110Q112Q114Q116Q118Q120Q122Tonnes*Data to 31 March 2023.Note:Ou
159、r quarterly records go back to 2000.Source:Metals Focus,Refinitiv GFMS,World Gold Council Mine production hit an all-time frst-quarter high in Q1-2023*18Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023SupplyNotable production increases were seen in Q1 in the following countries:Mine production more than doubled(+118%y/y)
160、in Mongolia as commercial production was declared from underground operations at the vast Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine.Production increased 13%y/y in Brazil due to the ramp-up at the Salobo mine.In South Africa,mine production increased by 8%y/y despite ongoing electrical power supply disruptions.The
161、 major contributors were Kloof and Driefontein,which had higher output compared to strike-disrupted operations in Q122.Mine production in China increased by 3%y/y due to a combination of factors.The COVID disruptions experienced during Q122 were absent and it appears that output was less disrupted b
162、y seasonal factors this year.Ongoing consolidation of the China mining industry is leading to improved operating practices that reduce the impact of harsh winter weather on mining.Despite these supportive factors,consolidation of small producers and tighter environmental standards could generate a s
163、low decline in Chinese mine production over the medium term.Operations in some countries were hit by a mix of mining,geological and weather factors.In Indonesia,mine production fell by 19%y/y due to flooding and planned lower grades from Grasberg,the large copper-gold mine.In Senegal,output was 8%lo
164、wer y/y as lower grades reduced output from some mines,including Sabadola and Mako.Suriname saw production fall by 7%y/y on sequencing,harder ore and additional stripping at Merian,much the same reasons for the 6%y/y decline seen from Mexico in respect of the Peasquito Mine.Regionally,the Central&So
165、uth American region saw the largest increase,up 4t y/y,due to increases in Brazil noted above.Oceania and the CIS both saw production up 3t y/y due to higher output from Australia and Russia respectively;Other regions were broadly unchanged.Although it is too early to precisely forecast full-year mi
166、ne production for 2023,many of the trends evident in the first quarter suggest that production will remain strong.Please see the Review and Outlook section for more details.In 2022,average all-in sustaining costs(AISC)for the gold mining industry reached a record high,rising by 18%y/y to US$1,276/oz
167、.This was 14%,or US$160/oz,above the previous record set in 2012.However,there was some respite for miners in the fourth quarter.In Q422,the last data available at the time of writing,the global average AISC fell for the first time in 2022,dropping by 1%q/q to US$1,279/oz.For more detail and expecta
168、tions on AISC in Q123,please see our blog.Net producer hedgingThe global delta-adjusted producer hedge book fell by 11t in 2022 to 169t.Confirmed hedging data has led to an adjustment in our annual total for 2022:companies delivered more heavily into positions in the second half of the year as the g
169、old price was generally lower.The increase in the gold price in early 2023 appears to have triggered new hedging activity:our preliminary estimate is for a minimal 8t rise in the industry hedge book,although we expect this estimate to increase once first-quarter company reports have been received.Mo
170、st new hedging positions are either opportunistic in the short-term,capitalising on a higher gold price,and small in size,or from companies with project or debt finance requirements.19Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023SupplyRecycled goldGold recycling in Q1 rose to 310t(+7%q/q,+5%y/y)in response to higher g
171、old prices the strongest first quarter level of recycled supply since 2016.But this was a relatively subdued increase,given the price action and the challenging economic environment for many,and there were pockets of weakness as gold served its purpose as a safe-haven asset.Although up 5%y/y,we beli
172、eve the 7%increase q/q is a more important comparison.This is the second consecutive quarterly increase in recycling supply and mirrors the increase in the gold price over this period.In Q122 the LBMA PM reference gold price averaged US$1,890/oz,almost matching the quarterly record of US$1,909/oz se
173、en in Q320.Despite the increase in recycling,the absolute volume of recycled supply was depressed,primarily due to lower sales from Western markets and the Middle East.Developments in major markets are highlighted below:There are clear signs in Western markets of depletion of near-market stocks,espe
174、cially in the US and,to a lesser extent,in Europe where a considerable amount of 18 carat gold jewellery remains in the hands of Southern European consumers In the Middle East,ongoing political and economic turmoil has dampened sales compared with what might have been expected,as gold is seen as an
175、asset to hold in the face of high inflation,weak currencies and heightened geopolitical risk.Chinese recycling volumes were lower q/q,mainly due to the normal surge of retailer supply towards the end of the calendar year:this is a market where q/q comparisons are less useful.Excluding China from the
176、 global total would have resulted in a 14%increase q/q,demonstrating the importance of China in global recycling totals India saw higher q/q and y/y recycling volumes,understandably so given the price sensitivity in this market.As well as consumer sales,finance companies liquidated gold holdings dur
177、ing the quarter.We believe this represents a mixture of defaulted loans,where gold was used as collateral,and opportunistic sales from the finance companies that viewed the gold price as high.Notwithstanding relatively low quantities of recycled gold supply globally,it is worth reiterating that high
178、er gold prices,especially in local currency terms,prompted additional flows of metal in most markets.And while there were few references to distress-selling,some markets were affected,notably certain Middle Eastern countries and India.Barring a sharp rise in the gold price in 2023 we believe recycli
179、ng supply could rise modestly over the year.For more details,please see the Outlook section.05002507501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0000500300350400Q117Q118Q119Q120Q121Q122Q123US$/ozTonnesRecycled goldLBMA Gold Price PM(quarterly average,rhs)*Data to 31 March 2023.Source:ICE Benchmark Administrat
180、ion,Metals Focus,World Gold Council Gold recycling activities rose as the gold price climbed*20Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Notes and definitionsNotesRevisions to dataAll data is subject to revision in the light of new information.Historical data seriesDemand and supply data from Q1 2014 are provided b
181、y Metals Focus.Data between Q1 2010 and Q4 2013 is a synthesis of Metals Focus and GFMS,Thomson Reuters data,which was created using relatively simple statistical techniques.For more information on this process,please see Creating a consistent data series by Dr James Abdey.DefinitionsBarsNet investm
182、ent(i.e.gross purchases less gross sales)in small gold bars(1kg and below)sold at the retail level.Where identifiable,this also includes gold bought and stored via online vendors.Central banksNet purchases(i.e.gross purchases less gross sales)by central banks and other official sector institutions,i
183、ncluding supra national entities such as the IMF.Swaps and the effects of delta hedging are excluded.Comex net long positioningThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC)publishes a weekly Commitment of Traders(COT)report that provides information on the positioning of speculative investors in th
184、e U.S.futures markets.The report gives the aggregate positions held by traders from the previous Tuesday,including the number of long contracts(that stand to benefit if prices rise)and short contracts(that benefit if they fall).The report is often used as an indicator of market sentiment regarding t
185、he price of gold:short positioning reflects bearish sentiment while long positioning reflects bullish sentiment in the gold futures markets.Consumer demandThe sum of jewellery consumption and total bar and coin investment occurring within a country i.e.the amount(in fine weight)of gold purchased dir
186、ectly by individuals.Technology demand is not included at the individual country level,as it is measured at the point of fabrication rather than at the point of consumption.ElectronicsThe volume of gold bullion or grain fabricated into components used in the production of electronics,including but n
187、ot limited to semiconductors and bonding wire.DentistryThe volume of gold bullion or grain fabricated into products destined for dental applications such as dental alloys.Gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds(ETFs)and similar The volume of gold held in physical form by open-ended Exchange Traded Funds(E
188、TFs)and other products such as close-end funds,and mutual funds.Most funds included in this list are fully backed by physical gold.While several funds allow other holdings such as cash,derivatives or other precious metals,we monitor only those funds investing at least 90%in physical gold and appropr
189、iately adjust their reported assets to estimate physical holdings only.For funds that include physical holdings of multiple precious metals,the total AUM depicted for such funds is lower than their actual total AUM.Over time,the data set will adapt to most accurately represent the universe of active
190、 funds.For a comprehensive list of the funds we track or to subscribe to our monthly update on gold-backed ETF holdings,visit/goldhub/data/global-gold-backed-etf-holdings-and-flowsFabricationFabrication is the first transformation of gold bullion into a semi-finished or finished product.Gold bullion
191、Gold,in bar form,refined to a purity of at least 99.5%.Gold demandThe total of jewellery fabrication,technology fabrication,investment and net purchases by central banks.Jewellery consumptionEnd-user(consumer)demand for all newly-made carat jewellery sold at the retail level,by volume of fine gold.M
192、easured on a gross basis(i.e.includes recycled gold).Excludes:purchases funded by the trading-in of existing carat gold jewellery(gold-for-gold exchange);and purchases of second-hand jewellery,other metals plated with gold,and coins and bars used as jewellery.At the global level,it is measured as je
193、wellery fabrication adjusted for changes in inventories held by the trade.At the country level,it is jewellery fabrication adjusted for changes in trade stocks plus imports,less exports.21Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Notes and definitionsJewellery fabricationJewellery fabrication is the first transform
194、ation of gold bullion into semi-finished or finished jewellery.This differs from jewellery consumption as it excludes stock building/de-stocking by manufacturers and distributors.At the individual country level,it also excludes imports or exports.Jewellery inventoryChanges to the level of jewellery
195、stocks along the jewellery distribution chain,this is the difference between gold fabrication and gold consumption.A negative figure represents a draw-down of stocks when consumption exceeds fabrication.A positive figure represents a build-up of stocks.LBMA Gold price PMUnless otherwise specified,go
196、ld price values from 20 March 2015 are based on the LBMA Gold price PM administered by ICE Benchmark Administration(IBA),with prior values being based on the London PM Fix.For more information,see www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/gold-prices Medals/imitation coinsFabrication of gold coins
197、 without a face value,produced by both private and official/national mints.India dominates this category with,on average,around 75%of the total.Medallion is the name given to unofficial coins in India.Medals of at least 99%purity are also included.Mine productionThe volume(in fine weight)of gold min
198、ed globally.This includes an estimate for gold produced by artisanal and small-scale gold mining(ASGM),which is largely informal.For more information,refer to:www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/mine-productionNet producer hedgingThe net impact in the physical market of mining companies gold
199、 forward sales,loans and options positions.Hedging transactions which release gold to the market from existing above-ground stocks accelerates the sale of gold.De-hedging the process of closing out hedged positions has the opposite impact and will reduce the amount of gold available to the market in
200、 any given quarter.Over time,hedging activity does not generate a net change in the supply of gold.For more information,refer to:www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/mine-productionOfficial coinsNet investment in gold bullion coins(i.e.gross purchases less gross sales)at the retail level.It i
201、s equal to the volume of fine gold in coins fabricated by official/national mints which are,or have been,legal tender in the country of issue.It is measured at the country of consumption rather than at the country of origin(for example,the Perth Mint in Australia,sells most of the coins it produces
202、through its global distribution network).In practice it includes the initial sale of many coins destined ultimately to be considered as numismatic rather than bullion.OTC and otherThis number captures demand in the OTC market(for which data is not readily available),changes to inventories on commodi
203、ty exchanges,any unobserved changes in fabrication inventories and any statistical residual.It is the difference between total supply and gold demand.Other industrialGold used in the production of compounds,such as Gold Potassium Cyanide,for electro-plating in industrial applications as well as in t
204、he production of gold-plated jewellery and other decorative items such as gold thread.India accounts for the bulk of demand in this category.Over-the-counter(OTC)Over-the-counter(OTC)transactions(also referred to as off exchange trading)take place directly between two parties,unlike exchange trading
205、 which is conducted via an exchange.Recycled goldGold recovered from fabricated products,including unused trade stocks,which is refined back into bullion.This specifically refers to gold sold for cash.It does not include gold traded-in for other gold products(for example,by consumers at jewellery st
206、ores)or process scrap(scrap generated during manufacturing,which never becomes part of a fabricated product but instead returns as scrap to a refiner).For more information,refer to www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/recyclingTechnologyThis captures all gold used in the fabrication of electr
207、onics,dental,medical,decorative and other technological applications,with electronics representing the largest component of this category.It includes gold destined for plating jewellery.22Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Tonne(Metric)1,000 kg or 32,151 troy oz of fine gold.Total bar and coin Total net inve
208、stment in gold bars,coins and medals/imitation coins.Total supplyThe total of mine production,net producer hedging and recycling.Year-to-date(y-t-d)In Gold Demand Trends,year-to-date refers to the period to the end of the quarter being reviewed(i.e.for Gold Demand Trends Q2 2017,year-to-date referre
209、d to the period from 31/12/2016 to 30/06/2017).Notes and definitions23Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023About the World Gold CouncilWere the global experts on gold.Leveraging our broad knowledge and experience,we work to improve understanding of the gold market and underscore golds value to individuals,inve
210、stors,and the world at large.Collaboration is the cornerstone of our approach.Were an association whose members are the worlds most forward-thinking gold mining companies.Combining the insights of our members and other industry partners,we seek to unlock golds evolving role as a catalyst for advance
211、ments that meet societal needs.We develop standards,expand access to gold,and tackle barriers to adoption to stimulate demand and support a vibrant and sustainable future for the gold market.From our offices in Beijing,London,Mumbai,New York,Shanghai,and Singapore,we deliver positive impact worldwid
212、e.World Gold Council 7th Floor,15 Fetter Lane London EC4A 1BW United KingdomT+44 20 7826 4700 F+44 20 7826 4799 W www.gold.orgFurther informationFor data sets and methodology visit:www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-supply-and-demand-statisticsOr contact:researchgold.org Louise Street louise.streetgold.
213、orgKrishan Gopaul krishan.gopaulgold.orgRay Jia ray.jiagold.orgJeremy De Pessemier,CFA jeremy.depessemiergold.orgJuan Carlos Artigas Global Head of Research juancarlos.artigasgold.orgJohan Palmberg johan.palmberggold.org ResearchMarket StrategyJoseph Cavatoni Market Strategist,North America joseph.c
214、avatonigold.orgJohn Reade Market Strategist,EMEA and APAC john.readegold.org24Gold Demand Trends|Q1 2023Important information and disclaimers 2023 World Gold Council.All rights reserved.World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.All references
215、 to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only.ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may
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220、es arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information,you agree with its intended purpose.Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation,investment advice,or offer for the purchase o
221、r sale of gold,any gold-related products or services or any other products,services,securities or financial instruments(collectively,“Services”).This information does not take into account any investment objectives,financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.Diversification does
222、 not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.The resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature,may not reflect actual i
223、nvestment results and are not guarantees of future results.WGC does not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use.Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professi
224、onals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.This information may contain forward-looking statements,such as statements which use the words“believes”,“expects”,“may”,or“suggests”,or similar terminology,which are based on current expectations and are subject to change.Forwar
225、d-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties.There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved.WGC assumes no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation FrameworkNote that the resul
226、ting performance of various investment outcomes that can generated through use of Qaurum,the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature,may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.Neither WGC nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool,including without limitation any projections,estimates or calculations.