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1、ASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKRecovery Unabated amid Uncertainty2023MAYINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWorld Economic and Financial SurveysRecovery Unabated amid Uncertainty 2023MAYCopyright 2023 International Monetary FundCataloging-in-Publication Data
2、IMF LibraryNames:International Monetary Fund,publisher.Title:Regional economic outlook.Asia and Pacific:recovery unabated amid uncertainty.Other titles:Asia and Pacific:recovery unabated amid uncertainty.|Recovery unabated amid uncertainty.|World economic and financial surveys.|Regional economic out
3、look:Asia and Pacific.Description:Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund,2023.|World economic and financial surveys.|May 2023.|Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers:ISBN:9798400238062(paper)9798400238093(epub)9798400238123(web PDF)Subjects:LCSH:Economic forecastingAsia.|Economic forecas
4、tingPacific Area.|AsiaEconomic conditions.|Pacific AreaEconomic conditions.|Economic developmentAsia.|Economic developmentPacific Area.Classification:LCC HC412.R445 2023The Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific is published twice a year,in the spring and fall,to review developments in the Asia
5、and Pacific region.Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF Management.Publication orders may be placed online,by fax,or through the mail:International Monetary Fund,Publication ServicesP.O.
6、Box 92780,Washington,DC 20090(USA)T.+(1)202.623.7430F.+(1)202.623.7201publicationsIMF.orgwww.IMFbookstore.orgwww.elibrary.IMF.orgContentsAcknowledgments.vDefinitions.viExecutive Summary.viiOutlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabashed amid Uncertainty .1Resilient Growth Despite Multiple Shocks.1Vo
7、latile Financial Conditions and Persistent Core Inflation.3Outlook:Dynamic Growth and Continuing Inflation Pressures.4Risks to the Outlook Remain Tilted to the Downside.8Policies to Mitigate Risks and Support Growth.10References.18BOXESBox 1.State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through.19Box 2.Corpora
8、te Sector Vulnerabilities amid Rising Interest Rates.21FIGURESFigure 1.Growth Surprises.1Figure 2.Growth Drivers in Asia in 2022.2Figure 3.China Mobility and Retail Sales.3Figure 4.Financial Conditions.4Figure 5.Inflation Developments.5Figure 6.Global Growth Contributions.6Figure 7.Chinas Reopening.
9、6Figure 8.Contributions to GDP Growth.7Figure 9.External Demand and the Global Technology Cycle.8Figure 10.Headline Inflation Expected to Decline.9Figure 11.Risk of Stickier Inflation.9Figure 12.Response of Real GDP and Investment to a US Monetary Policy Shock.10Figure 13.Exposure to Medium-Term Ris
10、ks.11Figure 14.Real Interest Rates in Asia.12Figure 15.Cumulative Change in Short-Term Interest Rates and Taylor RuleImplied Interest Rates.12Figure 16.Recent Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Implications for Inflation.13Figure 17.Financial Fragilities in Asia.14Figure 18.Asia:Cyclically Adjusted Prim
11、ary Balance.15Figure 19.Asia:Primary Balances under Different Scenarios.16Figure 20.Total Electric Vehicle Sales.17Box Figure 1.1.Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Inflation.19Box Figure 1.2.Pass-Through Determinants.20 Box Figure 2.1.Cash and Debt in Vulnerable Firms under Stress Scenarios.22 TABLEST
12、able 1.Asia Real GDP.24Contents May 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDiiiAcknowledgmentsThis Regional Economic Outlook was prepared by a team led by Shanaka J.Peiris and Alasdair Scott,under the overall direction of Krishna Srinivasan and Thomas Helbling.The main authors are Monica Petrescu and Yizhi
13、Xu.Contributions were provided by Yan Carrire-Swallow,Natasha Che,Alex Copestake,Julia Estefania Flores,Melih Firat,Pablo Gonzalez,Daniel Jimnez,and Chris Redl.Maribel Cherres and Judee Yanzon assisted in the preparation of the report.Cheryl Toksoz of the IMFs Communications Department edited the vo
14、lume and coordinated its publication and release.Contributors to boxes are Yan Carrire-Swallow,Melih Firat,and Daniel Jimnez for Box 1,and Monica Petrescu for Box 2.The report is based on data available as of March 29,2023,and includes comments from other IMF departments and executive directors.Ackn
15、owledgmentsMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDvDefinitionsIn this Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific,the following groupings are employed:“ASEAN”refers to Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,Lao P.D.R.,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam,unless otherwise specifi
16、ed.“ASEAN-5”refers to Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,and Thailand.“Advanced Asia”refers to Australia,Hong Kong SAR,Japan,Korea,New Zealand,Singapore,and Taiwan Province of China.“Emerging Asia”refers to China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.“South Asia”ref
17、ers to Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Maldives,Nepal,and Sri Lanka.“Asia”refers to ASEAN,East Asia,Advanced Asia,South Asia,and other Asian economies.“EU”refers to the European Union.The following abbreviation is used:ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian NationsThe following conventions are used:In figures
18、 and tables,shaded areas show IMF projections.“Basis points”refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point(for example,25 basis points are equivalent to of 1 percentage point).“Billion”means a thousand million;“trillion”means a thousand billion.As used in this report,the term“country”does not in all case
19、s refer to a territorial entity that is a state as under-stood by international law and practice.As used here,the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and Pacific
20、INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 2023viExecutive Summary2023 looks to be a challenging year for the global economy,with global growth decelerating as the effects of monetary tightening and Russias war in Ukraine continue to weigh on activity.Persistent inflationary pressures,and recent financial sect
21、or problems in the United States and Europe,are injecting additional uncertainty into an already complex economic landscape.Against this somber backdrop,Asia-Pacific remains a dynamic region.Despite weakening external demandsuch as the downturn in demand for tech exports toward the end of 2022and mo
22、netary tightening,domestic demand has so far remained strong,with Chinas reopening providing fresh impetus.Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase this year to 4.6 percent,from 3.8 percent in 2022,an upgrade of 0.3 percent relative to the October 2022 World Economic Outlook.This mean
23、s the region would contribute around 70 percent of global growth.Asias dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resilient growth in India,while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023,in line with other regions.However,this dynamic outlook does not imply th
24、at policymakers in the region can afford to be complacent.The pressures from diminished global demand will weigh on the outlook.Headline inflation has been easing,but remains above targets in most countries,while core inflation has proven to be sticky.Although spillovers from turmoil in the European
25、 and US banking sectors have been limited thus far,vulnerabilities to global financial tightening and volatile market conditions,especially in the corporate and household sectors,remain elevated.Growth is expected to fall to 3.9 percent five years outthe lowest medium-term forecast in recent history
26、thus contributing to one of the lowest medium-term global growth forecasts since 1990.Risks to the outlook are to the downside,reflecting the possibility of stickier global and regional price pressures,the disconnect between markets anticipation of monetary policy paths and major central banks commu
27、nica-tions,additional turmoil in global financial markets,adverse spillovers to the region from Chinas medium-term growth slowdown,and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation.Monetary policy should remain tight until inflation falls durably back within target.The exceptions are China and Japan,where output
28、 is below potential and inflation expectations have stayed muted.Unless strains in financial markets increase and financial stability is at stake,central banks should separate monetary policy objectives from financial stability goals,using available tools aimed at addressing financial stability risk
29、s to allow them to continue to tighten policy to address inflationary pressures.Elevated public debt and rising interest costs call for continuedand,in some cases,acceleratedfiscal consol-idation,which can also support the battle against inflation,while protecting the vulnerable through targeted mea
30、sures.Monitoring pockets of vulnerability linked to elevated debt burdens in the corporate and household sectors,and market risks and corporate credit risk exposure in the financial sector,is essential for safeguarding financial stability.Structural reforms are needed to improve growth potential,thr
31、ough innovation and digitali-zation;accelerating the green energy transition;reducing risks from fragmentation;and ensuring food security.Executive SummaryMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDviiOutlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyResilient Growth Despite Multiple ShocksSev
32、eral shocks set back the global recovery in 2022(April 2023 World Economic Outlook).Russias war in Ukraine caused severe commodity price shocks and global trade disruptions.To rein in rising inflation,global central banks acted swiftly to raise monetary policy rates,which tightened global financial
33、conditions,especially as the US dollar surged.Chinas growth slowed markedly as a result of zero-COVID measures and the turmoil in the troubled property sector,falling to rates not seen in more than four decades.These global and regional pressures have affected economies in Asia and the Pacific signi
34、ficantly over the past year.Nonetheless,growth in the region remained resilient in the second half of 2022,much like in the rest of the world.IMF staff estimate growth in Asia and the Pacific to have been 3.8 percent for the year as a wholeslower than the strong rebound of 6.5 percent seen in 2021bu
35、t to have exceeded previous projections in several of the regions emerging markets and in some advanced economies in the last two quarters(Figure 1).Strong perfor-mance in the third quarter was driven by a recovery in mobility after easing COVID-19 containment measures(Figure 2,panel 1)and strong pe
36、nt-up demand across the region(Figure 2,panel 2),while external demand from the United States and Europe remained resilient amid fading supply chain disruptions(Figure 2,panel 3).In the fourth quarter,growth momentum continued in many of Asias emerging market economies,underpinned by booming service
37、 sectors after the reopening(Figure 2,panel 4).Meanwhile,Chinas economy avoided a contrac-tion,despite intermittent lockdowns in October and November and the bumpy reopening in December.However,growth fell short of expectations in the fourth quarter for some advanced economiesincluding Japan,Korea,a
38、nd Taiwan Province of Chinaon the back of lower external demand from the United States and Europe(Figure2,panel 5)and a downturn in the global technology cycle that affected electronics manufacturers in those economies(Figure2,panel6).The impact of the aforementioned shocks continues to be felt in 2
39、023,but less intensely.The broad decline in food and energy prices at the end of 2022 has brought some relief to consumers and commodity importers,contributing to the modera-tion in price pressures in the region.Global financial conditions have eased from recent peaks,reducing pressures on Asian cur
40、rencies and borrowing costs.In China,COVID-19 waves subsided in January,mobility has normalized,and other high frequency indicatorssuch as retail sales and travel bookingshave started to pick up(Figure 3).2022:Q32022:Q4New ZealandJapanKoreaChinaPhilippinesSingaporeTaiwanProvince of China TaiwanProvi
41、nce ofChina ThailandAustraliaNewZealandJapanKoreaChinaIndiaSingaporeThailandMalaysiaNegativePositivePhilippinesVietnamAustraliaIndonesiaIndiaIndonesiaFigure 1.Growth Surprises(Percent,year-over-year growth)11357Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF,World Economic Outlook(WEO)database.Note:Real GDP growth
42、rates of Malaysia and Vietnam in 2022:Q3 both exceed 10 percent and are higher than October 2022 World Economic Outlook projections.Projected real GDP growth(Oct.2022 WEO)15731Real GDP growth outturnsGrowth in Asia surprised to the upside in 2022:Q3,while 2022:Q4 was mixed.Outlook for Asia and Pacif
43、ic:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND1Asia AEsAsia EMDEs ROW EMDEsROW AEsAsia EMDEs(excluding China)United StatesAsia AEs(excluding Japan)EuropeFreightos GlobalContainer FreightIndexBaltic Dry IndexManufacturing:Asia AEsManufacturing:Asia EMDEs(excluding China)Ser
44、vices:Asia AEsServices:Asia EMDEs(excluding China)Asia EMDEs excluding ChinaChinaAsia AEs excluding JapanJapanMachinery(left scale)Computer and electronics(right scale)Figure 2.Growth Drivers in Asia in 2022 Mobility has picked up in Asias emerging markets since mid-2022.Asias reopening was later th
45、an the rest of the worlds and boosted domestic demand.1.Mobility(Percent from baseline,median value during Jan.3Feb.6,2022,seven-day moving average)2.Retail Sales Volume(Percent,year-over-year growth)604040200205300510152025Sources:Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report;and IMF staff calculations
46、.Note:The figure displays the seven-day moving average of the overall mobility index.Overall mobility index computed as the average of the percentage changes from pre-pandemic baseline day in retail,grocery and pharmacy,parks,transit,workplaces,and residential.Latest data as of October 15,2022.AEs=a
47、dvanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;ROW=rest of the world.Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.while declining logistics costs eased supply constraints.Manufacturing and services als
48、o picked up.but exports,particularly electronics,have contracted from the end of 2022.Prices for technology exports from Asia(for example,semiconductors)are down from recent peaks.3.Shipping Costs Indexes(Index,March 2020=100)4.Manufacturing and Service Sectors PMI(Diffusion index,50=no change)02004
49、006008001,0004060455055Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;PMI=purchasing managers index.Feb.2020Apr.20June 20Aug.20Oct.20Dec.20Feb.21Apr.21June 21Aug.21Oct.21
50、Dec.21Feb.22Apr.22June 22Aug.22June 2021July 21Aug.21Sep.21Oct.21Nov.21Dec.21Jan.22Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May 22June 22July 22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Jan.23Dec.22Mar.2020May 20July 20Sep.20Nov.20Jan.21Mar.21May 21July 21Sep.21Nov.21Jan.22Mar.22May 22July 22Sep.22Nov.22Jan.23Mar.23Jan.2021Feb.21Mar.21Apr.
51、21May.21June 21July 21Aug.21Sep.21Oct.21Nov.21Dec.21Jan.22Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May 22June 22July 22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Mar.23Feb.235.Asia USD Export(FOB)Growth Rates(Percent change year-over-year three-month moving average)6.Price Index of US Manufacturing Imports from Asia82
52、383908485868788899503105107Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Asia EMDEs include India,Indonesia,Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.Asia AEs include Australia,Hong Kong SAR,New Zealand,Singapore,and Taiwan Province of China.AEs=advanced economies;EMDE
53、s=emerging market and developing economies.Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics.Jan.2022Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May 22June 22July 22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Mar.23Feb.23Jan.2021Mar.21May 21July 21Sep.21Nov.21Jan.22Mar.22May 22July 22Sep.22Nov.22Jan.23REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINT
54、ERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 20232Volatile Financial Conditions and Persistent Core InflationInflationary pressures in Asia and globally have shown early signs of easing,stemming from sharp and synchronized monetary tightening actions taken by central banks and declines in commodity prices and shipp
55、ing costs.However,like in the rest of the world,core inflation in the region remains persistent.Financial conditions have eased from last years peaks,in line with global trends,but remain volatile.Asia has been relatively insulated from recent banking turmoil in the United States and Europe thus far
56、,as forceful responses by policymakers in those regions to stem systemic risks appear to have reduced market anxiety to some extent(April 2023 Global Financial Stability Report).Nonetheless,this recent stress has weighed on risky assets,and the region remains exposed to headwinds from fragile market
57、 sentiment.Financial ConditionsFinancial conditions in Asia have generally eased since last October,despite Asian central banks continuing their monetary tightening cycle.A bout of global volatility affected funding condi-tions and financial markets in Asia mid-2022;in the face of temporary disrupti
58、on in foreign exchange markets,some countries in the region resorted to foreign exchange interventions to smooth volatility.After this episode,the US dollar weakened in global markets,investor appetite improved,and capital inflows to Asian economies returned(Figure4,panel 1);funding conditions for s
59、overeign debt issuers have become more favorable(Figure4,panel2),while Asian currencies stabilized.However,financial conditions in the region have not been immune to rising global volatility in recent months.Swings in currencies and capital flows have reflected shifting market expectations about US
60、monetary policy and turbulence linked to more recent global banking stress.Given high market volatility and a disconnect between market expectations and the Federal Reserves projected rate path,significant uncertainty remains around the evolution of financial conditions in the region.Core InflationI
61、nflation in Asia has moderated since mid-2022,reflecting declines in both commodity prices and shipping costs.At the same time,the underlying driver of headline inflation in Asia has shifted toward rising core inflation,much like in the rest of the world(Figure 5,panel 1).Core inflation has remained
62、 above central bank targets across most Asian economies,although it is still moderate compared with the rest of the world(Figure 5,panel2).The pickup in Asias core inflation accelerated in the second half of 2022 as the region gradually phased out COVID-19 containment measures,which led to increased
63、 mobility and stronger domestic demand,particularly in emerging market economies(excluding China),thus contributing to closing output gaps.In China and Japan,where delayed reopening and softening external demand weighed on the recovery,output remains below potential,and core or headline inflation ha
64、s stayed within central bank target ranges.Mobility(national average)Retail sales volume(seasonally adjusted)Figure 3.China Mobility and Retail Sales(Mobility seven-day moving average,percent deviation from 201719 average in lunar calendar;retail sales volume,percent deviation from 201719 trend)2015
65、10505Jan.2022Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May 22June 22July 22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Feb.23Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China;WIND Mobility Index;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Mobility data as of February 21,2023;retail sales data as of February 2023.In China,mobility and retail sale
66、s have been recovering since the end of December.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid Uncertainty3May 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDOutlook:Dynamic Growth and Continuing Inflation PressuresAsia and Pacific will be the most dynamic of the worlds major regions in 2023,predominantly dr
67、iven by the buoyant outlook for China and India.The two largest emerging market economies of the region are expected to contribute around half of global growth this year,with the rest of Asia and Pacific contributing an additional fifth(Figure 6).The reopening of the Chinese economy will be pivotal
68、for the region.It is expected to result in a pickup in private consumption that will drive Chinas growth rebound(Figure 7,panel 1).Spillovers to the rest of Asia from higher consumption in China are estimated to be larger than spillovers from other growth drivers,such as invest-ment(Figure 7,panel2)
69、.The near-term impact will likely vary across countries,with those more heavily reliant on tourism likely reaping the most benefit,given that the expected rise in Chinas imports will be strongest for services.As in the rest of the world,domestic demand is expected to remain the largest growth driver
70、 across Asia in 2023(Figure 8).The rebound in private consumption supported by the drawdown of excess savings built up during the pandemicreflecting a combination of lockdown-related spending cuts,desire for higher precautionary savings,and exceptional government transfersis expected to continue thi
71、s year as household savings ratios have not yet normalized.The pace of the rebound should moderate in the economies in which the drawdown is most advanced.Moreover,improved prospects and still accommodative financial conditions in many Asian economies are likely to support credit flows for household
72、 consumption and corporate investment.Jan.2022 to Oct.2022Jan.2023 to dateOct.2022 to Jan.2023CumulativeChinaIndiaAsia EMDEs excludingChina and IndiaASEANAsia EMDEsFigure 4.Financial ConditionsSources:Bloomberg Finance L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Sources:Institute of International Finance;and IM
73、F staff calculations.Note:Asia EMDEs excludes China and India,and includes Indonesia,the Philippines,Sri Lanka,and Thailand.ASEAN includes Indonesia,the Philippines,and Thailand.ASEAN=Association of Southeast Asian Nations;EMDEs=emerging market and developing econo-mies;IIP=international investment
74、position.2.Local Currency Sovereign Yields(Basis points)1.Cumulative Portfolio Flows(Percent of IIP liabilities).and long-term sovereign yields have come down from their 2022 peaks.Portfolio flows remain resilient for now Oct.2022Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Feb.23Mar.230.40.200.20.40.60.81502501002
75、00300350United StatesNew ZealandAustraliaHong Kong SARSingaporeKoreaJapanPhilippinesBangladeshIndiaThailandIndonesiaMalaysiaChinaVietnamAdvanced AsiaEmerging AsiaREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 20234However,several external and domestic factors will weigh on
76、the outlook.Monetary conditions in the euro zone and the United States in 2022 were tighter than previously expected,which,together with the continued rotation from goods to services demand,has contributed to a downgrade in the projected import demand for Asia from outside the region.This downgrade
77、will offset some of the benefits from higher import demand from China and weigh on growth momentum in Asias manufacturing exporters(Figure 9,panel1).In addition,the downturn in the technology cyclevisible in the sagging price of electronics imported by the United States from Asia and in falling book
78、-to-bill ratios of semi-conductorswill be an additional drag on the regions tech exports(Figure 9,panel 2).Within the region,the impact of restrictive monetary policy has started to be felt,with housing markets cooling off and weakening demand for investment in residential and business construction.
79、Reflecting these global and regional forces,GDP growth in the region is expected to reach 4.6 percent in 2023,up from 3.8 in percent in 2022(Table 1),and an upgrade of 0.3 percent from the October 2022 World Economic Outlook.Asias dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resili
80、ent growth in India,while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023,in line with other regions.Asia AEs excluding JapanAsia EMDEs excluding ChinaChinaJapanRest of the world AEsRest of the world EMDEsFoodEnergy,fuel,transportOther categories(core)Headline CPIFigure 5.Inflation Deve
81、lopmentsSources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:23*refers to data up to March 2023.Core refers to CPI basket excluding food and energy,fuel,and transport.The exact categories used in the decomposition of these categories varies across countries.Asia AEs include Australia,Hong Kong SA
82、R,Korea,Macao,New Zealand,Singapore,and Taiwan Province of China.Asia EMDEs include India,Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand.Rest of the world AEs include Belgium,Canada,France,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Sweden,Switzerland,the United Kingdom,and the United States.Rest of the world EM
83、DEs includes Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Hungary,Mexico,and South Africa.AEs=advanced economies;CPI=consumer price index;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Core refers to CPI basket excluding food and energy,fuel,and transport.Asia AEs ex
84、clude Japan and include Australia,Hong Kong SAR,Korea,Macao,New Zealand,Singapore,and Taiwan Province of China.Asia EMDEs exclude China and include India,Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.Rest of the world AEs include Canada,Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Switzerland,the United Kin
85、gdom,and the United States.Rest of the world EMDEs include Brazil,Chile,Colombia,the Czech Republic,Hungary,Mexico,Peru,and South Africa.AEs=advanced economies;CPI=consumer price index;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.1.Contributions to Headline Inflation(Percent)2.Core Inflation(Devia
86、tion from target,year-over-year)Core inflation remains high and is increasingly becoming the main driver of inflation.Core inflation remains above central bank targets in Asia,although less so than in the rest of the world.Mar.2019Nov.19 Nov.20Nov.21July 22July 19Mar.20July 21July 20Mar.21Mar.22Nov.
87、22Mar.23420246823*2020212223*2020212223*2020212223*2020212223*2020212223*ChinaAsia excl.ChinaRest ofthe worldJapanRest ofthe worldAsia excl.JapanEMDEsAEsOutlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND5Advanced Economies Strong
88、er external demand from China will provide some respite to advanced economies in the region,but is expected to be largely outweighed by the drag from other domestic and external factors.In Japan,growth is expected to tick up slightly to 1.3 percent in 2023,supported by expansionary monetary and fisc
89、al stances;this forecast represents a 0.3 percentage point downgrade relative to last October,reflecting weaker external demand and investment and carryover from disappointing growth in the last quarter of 2022.In Australia and New Zealand,weakening domestic demand linked to monetary tightening,risi
90、ng mortgage payments,and lower real disposable income is expected to dampen growth prospects to 1.6 percent and 1.1 percent in 2023,respectively.The downturn in the technology cycle is expected to erode growth momentum further in Korea and Taiwan Province of China,where outturns in the last quarter
91、of 2022 were disappointing.ChinaIndiaRest of AsiaFigure 6.Global Growth Contributions(Percent,quarterly year-over-year growth)Sources:IMF,April 2023 World Economic Outlook;and IMF staff calculations.Apr.2021July.21Oct.21Jan.22Apr.22July 22Oct.22Jan.23Apr.23July 23Oct.23Jan.24Apr.24July 24Oct.2401020
92、30405060708090100The largest growth contributions come from China and India.Real GDPPrivate consumptionInvestmentFigure 7.Chinas ReopeningSources:CEIC Data Company Ltd;and IMF staff calculations.Sources:IMF,October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific;IMF,October 2022 World Economic Outlo
93、ok;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Diamonds represent mean response in Asia-Pacific countries(excluding China),lines are 68 percent confidence intervals.Shocks are scaled to be equivalent to the revision in China private investment(1 pp)and consumption(1.5 pp)growth forecast from October 2022 World
94、Economic Outlook to April 2023 World Economic Outlook.1.Growth and Private Consumption(Percent,real growth year-over-year)2.Estimated Spillovers from Chinas Projected Growth in 2023(Change in Asia-Pacific growth,percentage points)Chinese growth in 2023 is projected to be 0.8 percentage point higher
95、than in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook.Higher growth in China will have positive spillovers for the region,mainly through consumption.ConsumptionInvestment642024681012142022:Q122:Q323:Q123:Q30.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY
96、FUND May 20236Emerging MarketsIn China,the economy is expected to expand by 5.2 percent in 2023,as the rapid economic reopening generates a strong recovery in private consumption.In India,growth momentum will begin to slow as softening domestic demand offsets strong external services demand;growth i
97、s expected to moderate slightly from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 5.9 percent this year.Economies belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are also expected to see growth decreasing from 5.7 percent in 2022 to 4.6 percent in 2023,due to a slight moderation in domestic demand momentum(Malays
98、ia,Thailand),monetary tightening(Philippines),commodity prices easing(Indonesia,Malaysia),and weaker external demand from the United States and Europe.In Bangladesh,growth will slow to 5.5 percent in 2023 because of demand management measures;the recently approved Extended Fund Facility will help ad
99、dress economic challenges caused by Russias war in Ukraine,while the concurrent Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement will help expand fiscal space to finance climate investment priorities and build resilience against long-term climate risks.In Sri Lanka,the recently approved Extended F
100、und Facility Arrangement will provide much needed financing and help stabilize the economy.Pacific Island CountriesThe full reopening of borders both domestically and in China will help boost tourism across Pacific Island countries,with growth expected to accelerate to 3.9 percent this year.However,
101、output remains below pre-pandemic levels,and policy space is shrinking as debt pressures remain elevated.Medium-Term Prospects Over the medium term,structural shifts in Chinas economic modelmost notably the declining population and slowing productivity growthwill lead Chinas growth to fall below 4 p
102、ercent,and thus well below historic averages.In addition,as a result of structural rebalancing over time,Chinas growth is expected to be increas-ingly consumption driven(IMF 2023b).This shift may reduce Asias growth momentum significantly given strong trade and supply chain linkages within the regio
103、n.Inflation Headline inflation is expected to decline this year at a gradual pace(Figure 10),reflecting subsiding food and energy price pressures and the effects of monetary tightening.Output is expected to return to potential in Asias emerging market economies by 2023,somewhat behind the trend in a
104、dvanced economies,suggesting continued near-term pressure on core inflation.Inflationary pressures in Asias advanced economies are expected to be more persistent than envisioned in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook,as wage growth has recently become more apparent in Australia,Japan,and New Zea
105、land.Private consumptionNet exportsGrowthPrivate investmentPublic consumption and investmentSources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:AE=advanced economy;EMDE=emerging market and developing economy.Figure 8.Contributions to GDP Growth(Percentage points;year-over-yea
106、r)3203203203AE Asia(excl.Japan)EMDE Asia(excl.China)ChinaJapanDomestic demand,consumption in particular,is the main driver of growth in the near term.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY
107、FUND7Risks to the Outlook Remain Tilted to the Downside Uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for Asia,and risks remain to the downside,as in the October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific.Global and regional inflation could prove stickier than expected.A tightening in financial co
108、nditions due to interest rate hikes by central banks beyond what markets currently expect could pose financial stability risks via sectors with high leverage;these risks are amplified by fragile market sentiment.In the medium term,more severe geoeconomic fragmentation and spillovers from the slowdow
109、n in China could imperil Asias growth potential.Other risks stem from continued banking sector stress and slowed economic activity in the United States and Europe,which could weaken external demand in Asia;a deepening of real estate sector turbulence in China,which could jeopardize Chinas recovery,w
110、ith potential regional spillovers;and high debt levels in Asias emerging markets and developing economies,which could lead to sovereign debt distress(April 2023 World Economic Outlook,Chapters 1 and 3).Upside risks include stronger-than-expected domestic demand,although this could complicate achievi
111、ng inflation objectives.Stickier InflationGlobal and regional disinflationary trends could stall,driven by additional commodity price and shipping cost shocks or by core inflation that is more persistent than expected.Additional shocks to commodity prices or further disruptions in supply chains coul
112、d raise headline inflation and pass through into core inflation and inflation expectations(October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific;Carrire-Swallow and others 2023a).Although Chinas reopening has not led to a noticeable increase in global energy prices thus far,commodity prices could
113、respond strongly if the rebound in Chinas economic United StatesEuro areaFigure 9.External Demand and the Global Technology CycleSources:IMF,April 2023 World Economic Outlook;and IMF staff calculations.Source:IPC.Note:The book-to-bill ratio is the ratio of orders received to units shipped and billed
114、 for the period.It is often used as a leading indicator of demand;a ratio below one means more orders were shipped than received during the month,signaling diminishing demand.1.Goods and Service Imports(Percent)2.North American Printed Circuit Board Book-to-Bill Ratio(Units)Weaker demand from the Un
115、ited States and Europe will put pressure on Asias export performance.Demand for semiconductors remains subdued.20212223240.800.900.850.951.001.051.101.151.201.251.30Oct.22Nov.22Sep.22Feb.22Aug.22Apr.22Feb.22May 22Jan.22Mar.22Dec.2021Dec.22Jan.23July 22June 22420246810121416REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKA
116、sia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 20238activity were larger than expected(Figure 11,panel 1).In addition,an escalation in Russias war in Ukraine or intraregional military tensions could again disrupt vulnerable supply chains,raising the costs of global shipping and intermediate goods.Si
117、gnificant uncertainty remains around the path of core inflation,which could turn out to be more persistent in advanced economies and Asia.In the United States,stronger-than-expected wage growth and tight labor markets could stall the incipient decline in inflation.In Asia,resilient domestic demand a
118、nd large positive output gaps in some advanced economies(for example,Australia,Malaysia,New Zealand,and the Philippines),uncertain lags in monetary trans-mission(see April 2023 World Economic Outlook,Box 1.2),and still-narrowing negative output gaps in some emerging markets(India and Thailand)could
119、contribute to more persistent price pressures(Figure 11,panel2).Risks that slack may be smaller than assessed because of scarring from the pandemic could also translate into stronger inflation persistence.Apr.22 WEOJan.23 WEOOct.22 WEOApr.23 WEOFigure 10.Headline Inflation Expected to Decline(Percen
120、t)02021:Q321:Q422:Q322:Q422:Q122:Q223:Q323:Q423:Q123:Q22021:Q321:Q422:Q322:Q422:Q122:Q223:Q323:Q423:Q123:Q22021:Q321:Q422:Q322:Q422:Q122:Q223:Q323:Q423:Q123:Q2Source:IMF,World Economic Outlook(WEO)database.Note:AE=advanced economy;EMDE=emerging market and developing economy.United StatesA
121、E Asia EMDE Asia Lower boundMedianUpper boundNot hikedHikedFigure 11.Risk of Stickier Inflation1.Response of Brent Oil Price to 1 Percentage Point Chinese Demand Shock(Percentage point deviation)2260481012Percentage point deviationQuarters after shockOutput gap 2022(percent of potential GDP)13591113
122、1517197Sources:Copestake and others(forthcoming);and IMF staff calculations.Note:Solid line shows the median response of the Brent oil price to a positive demand shock in China based on a sign restricted Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model.3112032546Latest core inflationdeviationfrom tar
123、get4.53.01.51.53.04.50.0Sources:Haver Analytics;IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:For inflation-targeting countries,deviation from target or midpoint of the inflation target range is used.For countries without an inflation target(Hong Kong SAR,Malaysia,Singapore,Tai
124、wan Province of China),an implicit target is calculated using the long-term average inflation between 201019.Dotted line as linear regression line.Latest core inflation data as of March 29,2023.Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.Chinas reopening co
125、uld put pressure on commodity prices.2.Output Gap and Core Inflation Deviation from Inflation Target(Percent)Positive output gaps could contribute to more persistent price pressures.CHNJPNAUSHKGINDIDNMYSPHLTWNTHAVNMKORNZLSGPOutlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTE
126、RNATIONAL MONETARY FUND9Abrupt Repricing of Monetary Tightening by Major Central BanksGiven the sizable disconnect between markets expectations of monetary policy paths and central bank communications,abrupt repricing of major central banks monetary tightening would cause adverse spillovers to Asia.
127、US monetary shocks have been shown to have negative effects on investment and growth in the region(Figure12;October 2021 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific,Box 2.1),and could put significant pressure on Asias borrowing costs,equity valu-ations,and exchange rates(Arbatli-Saxegaard and others
128、2022).Amplification of Financial VulnerabilitiesPoor market conditions in recent months,combined with gyrations in interest rates,appear to have amplified market volatility.While spillovers to the region from stress in US and European financial sectors have been relatively contained thus far,Asia re
129、mains vulnerable to tightening financial conditions and to sudden and disorderly repricing of assets.Banks in Asias advanced economies hold a relatively large share of mark-to-market securities on their balance sheets,exposing them to losses from repricing;however,spillover concerns are somewhat mit
130、igated by their strong capital and liquidity buffers.On the other hand,the regions highly leveraged corporate and household sectors are signifi-cantly more exposed to a sharp increase in borrowing costs in a severe downside scenario(as outlined in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook).Medium-Term R
131、isksRisks of further global trade fragmentation are becoming more salient,considering ongoing US-China trade disputes(including new restrictions on trade in high-tech products)and heightened geopolitical tensions linked to Russias war in Ukraine.Asia remains especially vulnerable to reduced cross-bo
132、rder trade flows(October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific,Chapter 3;IMF 2023c)and foreign direct investment(April 2023 World Economic Outlook,Chapter 4)that could result from the world fragmenting into multiple blocs,with Asias exporters heavily exposed to the China,Europe,and the Uni
133、ted States(Figure13,panel1).Meanwhile,the medium-term slowdown in productivity and investment in Chinawhich could sharpen due to fragmentation pressuresmay have profound and unanticipated adverse implications for the rest of the region.The impact on other Asian economies would depend on their degree
134、 of export exposure to Chinas domestic demand and investment,and to global value chains via China(Figure 13,panel 2).Policies to Mitigate Risks and Support GrowthPolicymakers in the region face several challenges:bringing inflation back to target,stabilizing public and private debt,safeguarding fina
135、ncial stability,and improving long-term growth potential.High levels of uncer-tainty around the depth of scarring from the pandemic(see October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Source:Arbatli-Saxegaard and others(2022).Note:Estimations are based on panel quantile regressions and show the impa
136、ct of a 100 basis point exegenous US monetary policy shock.Standard errors are bootstrapped using blocks of four quarters.Figure 12.Response of Real GDP and Investment to a US Monetary Policy Shock(Percentage change,impulse responses at four quarters)2.00.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.40.60.250th percentile5
137、th percentileReal GDPInvestment5th percentile50th percentileLarger and more persistent US monetary tightening could have significant spillovers to Asia.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202310Pacific,Chapter 2)and the persistence of inflation,and volatility in
138、financial markets,amplified by recent strains in financial institutions funding and liquidity conditions,are complicating the assessment of policy trade-offs(see April 2023 Global Financial Stability Report,Chapter 1).Monetary PolicyCentral bankers in Asia should aim to bring inflation durably back
139、to target,holding a tighter stance for longer to prevent de-anchoring of inflation expectations.The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions looseinsufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately mo
140、re monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained,making a larger contraction more likely.In Asia,several factors indicate that monetary conditions may need to be tighter for longer,including compressed real interest rates,deviation from simple policy rules,additional pressures
141、 from exchange rate pass-through,and broadening price pressures.Real interest rates.Markets expect real interest rates in emerging markets in Asia(excluding China)to gradually increase and turn positive later this year,but to remain low overall,while real interest rates in advanced economies(excludi
142、ng Japan)are expected to remain negative for most of 2023(Figure 14);real rates are thus likely below neutral in many countries in the region.Deviation from Taylor ruleimplied policies.Many central banks in Asia have communicated the hiking cycle to be nearing completion or already complete.The tigh
143、tening thus far has been very shallow compared with the interest rate path implied by a standard Taylor rule regime(Figure 15).Exchange rate pass-through.The substantial weakening of Asian currencies through October 2022 could lead to significant price pressures,despite the partial reversal in excha
144、nge rates since(Figure 16,panel 1).IMF staff research finds that depreciation episodes have a stronger near-term impact on domestic prices than appreciation episodes(see Box 1).In a scenario that features the same exchange rate fluctuations experienced ChinaUnited StatesEU-28VA to gross exportsVA to
145、 investmentVA to consumption(other)VA to consumption(services)Figure 13.Exposure to Medium-term Risks 1.Asian Exporters Exposure to China,Europe,and the United States(Export VA by destination in percent of GDP)2.Decomposing Exports Value Added to China(Percent of GDP)0002KHMHKG
146、BRNVNMLAOTWNMYSTHAKORPHLSGPAUSIDNJPNNZLINDKHMHKGBRNVNMLAOTWNMYSTHAKORPHLSGPAUSIDNJPNNZLINDMMRSources:Trade in Value Added(TiVA);and IMF staff calculations.Note:Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization country codes.VA=value added.Fragmentation could have significa
147、nt spillovers to the region given high exposure to the United States and China.Spillovers from structural changes in Chinas economy will vary with exposure to demand for consumption and investment.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND11in
148、 the region over the past year,inflationary pressures would be expected to peak in the second half of 2023,raising the price level by more than 2 percent in emerging markets and by about 0.5 percent in advanced economies(Figure 16,panel 2).Broader price pressures.Recent inflationary pressures have b
149、roadened to services,and resilient domestic consumption is expected to be a key driver of demand in Asia,including with the reopening of China and the rebound in regional tourism.Moreover,since food and energy inflation has been lower in Asia than elsewhere because of subdued prices for rice and per
150、vasive use of administrative controls and subsidies for gasoline,electricity,and transportation,the disinflationary impact from the downturn in the global commodity cycle may be limited.Some countries may also experience additional or lagged price pressures stemming from the phasing out of subsidies
151、(Indonesia,Korea,Malaysia).Evidence of wage-price spirals remains limited in Asia,like in the rest of the world,but these should be monitored closely.Financial PoliciesFinancial supervisors will need to be especially wary of the buildup of financial vulnerabilities considering fragile market sentime
152、nt,elevated economic uncertainty,high debt burdens,and rising debt service costs.Relevant macroprudential toolsespecially those targeting corporate and household sectors,including limits on loan-to-value ratios and debt-service-to-income ratiosshould be recalibrated as needed to tackle pockets of vu
153、lnerability,while insolvency frameworks should be strengthened to facilitate a reallocation of capital.Although the banking sector in Asia is more resilient than a decade ago,strengthening measures to mitigate Asia EMDEs(excluding China)Asia AEs(excluding Japan)US estimatedneutral rateSources:Bloomb
154、erg Finance L.P.;and IMF,World Economic Outlook database.Note:Simple average of real interest rates.Asia AEs includes Australia,Hong Kong SAR,and New Zealand.Asia EMDEs includes Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand.Shaded areas are the start of projections.Neutral rate estimated in Chapter 2 of the
155、 April 2023 World Economic Outlook.Forecasted policy rates based on market implied rates from Bloomberg Finance L.P.three months,six months,and one year ahead.Core inflation projections based on core inflation forecasts.AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.Figure 14.
156、Real Interest Rates in Asia(Percent)2022:Q1 22:Q222:Q322:Q423:Q123:Q223:Q323:Q4Real interest rates remain low in both advanced and emerging market economies.3.53.02.52.01.51.00.500.51.0Taylor ruleimplied tightening(range)Actual tighteningFigure 15.Cumulative Change in Short-Term Interest Rates and T
157、aylor RuleImplied Interest Rates(2021:Q1 latest,percentage points)Sources:Haver Analytics;IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:All countries show data up to the first quarter of 2023 except for Australia and New Zealand,which show up to the fourth quarter of 2022.Calcu
158、lations for Taylor Ruleimplied interest rates are derived from it=1/1.5(t)+0.1/0.5(yt),where is core inflation rate and y is the output gap.Output gaps were interpolated from yearly to quarterly frequency.Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.AUSNZLPH
159、LVNMKORMYSIDNJPNTHAIND024681012141618Monetary conditions appear accommodative.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202312banks exposure to credit and interest rate risk is important.Global cooperation and the full use of the global financial safety net remains ess
160、ential for protecting the region against risks of external funding shocks;in this context,the recent reinstalment of global swap lines to shore up dollar liquidity is a welcome development.The corporate sector.At the start of the monetary tightening cycle,corporate debt in Asia was already concen-tr
161、ated in firms at risk of insolvency.Stress tests in line with the assumptions from the two scenarios in Chapter 1 of the April 2023 World Economic Outlook show that,even with resilient economic growth,steep increases in borrowing costs could weaken the sectors debt servicing capacity further,raising
162、 the share of debt linked to at-risk firms across the region(Figure 17,panel 1;Box 2).Recent movements in corporate spreads partly reflect these vulnerabilities but remain fairly muted(Figure 17,panel 2),potentially because of substantial corporate cash buffers or government support measures and imp
163、licit guarantees.The property and construction sector remains of major concern,including in China,where distressed developers continue to face severe funding strains and the sustainability of local government financing vehicles remains in question,with the potential for macro-financial spillovers vi
164、a both banks and nonbank financial institutions;in Vietnam,where vulnerabilities are intensifying;and in Korea and Singapore,where highly indebted firms are vulnerable to rising borrowing costs(Box 2).Jan.2022 to Oct.2022Oct.2022 to Jan.2023 Jan.2023 to date CumulativeFigure 16.Recent Exchange Rate
165、Fluctuations and Implications for InflationSources:Bloomberg Finance L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.AEs=advanced economies;EMs=emerging markets.Source:IMF staff calculations.Note:The chart displays the estim
166、ated contribution of the exchange rate to headline consumer price index(CPI)through end-2023,based on pass-through estimates reported in Carrire-Swallow and others(2023b).Exchange rate developments from January 2022 to December 2022 are used in these calculations.Asia AEs include Australia,Japan,Kor
167、ea,and New Zealand.Asia EMDEs include China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.1.Exchange Movement against the US Dollar(Percent)2.Estimated Contribution of the Exchange Rate to Headline CPI(Percentage p
168、oints)After large depreciation through the fall,Asian EM currencies appreciated against the US dollar in the last quarter of 2022,but have since depreciated.Pass-through from last years depreciation adds to inflation pressures in 2023,especially for EMs.3530202520TWNAUSHKGSGPJPNNZLKORMYSI
169、DNTHAVNMINDCHNPHLAsia AEsAsia EMsJan.2022May22Sep.22Jan.23May23Sep.23Asia AEsAsia EMDEs0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND13 The household sector.The housing market in Asias advanced economies is cooling amid tighte
170、r global and domestic financial conditions.However,valuations remain stretched,and downside risks to house prices are rising,increasing the risk of a sharp correction.As interest rates rise across the region,higher debt-service costs for adjustable-rate mortgages also leave housing markets more susc
171、eptible to defaults.In this context,elevated banking sector exposure to households across the regionand especially in Australia,Malaysia,and New Zealandwill require close monitoring(Figure 17,panel 3).The banking sector.The resilience of Asias banking sectors has improved because stringent regulator
172、y reforms introduced over the last two decades have yielded strong capital buffers and low nonperforming loans.However,several areas warrant monitoring:financial sector exposure to highly leveraged corporates and households,and long-standing concentration risks,especially for conglomerates and prope
173、rty firms.2022:Q2Severe downsidePlausible alternativeJPM Asia corporate IGJPM Asia corporate non-IGJPM Asia property sectorJPM Asia China corporateJPM Asia India corporate201519 averageLatestHTMAFSTradingRegulatory capital(right scale)Figure 17.Financial Fragilities in AsiaAlready-high debt concentr
174、ation in vulnerable firms could worsen if downside risks materialize.1.Share of Corporate Debt in Vulnerable Firms(Debt in firms with ICR 1;percent of all corporate debt)0602040AUSVNMTHAPHLMYSIDNINDCHNKORSGPJPNHKGNZLIDNHKGINDJPNSGPPHLTHACHNKORMYSAUSHKGAUSSGPINDIDNMYSKORPHLCHNJPNFeb.2021Feb.23Dec.22N
175、ov.22Jan.23Oct.22Aug.22Sep.22May 22June 22July 22Apr.22Dec.21Jan.22Feb.22Mar.22Oct.21Aug.21June 21July 21Sep.21Nov.21Apr.21Mar.21May 21Sources:Bloomberg;Capital IQ;and IMF staff calculations.Note:ICR in 2022:Q2 based on the average of the latest four quarters.Country abbreviations are International
176、Organization for Standardization country codes.ICR=interest coverage ratio.Recent movements in corporate credit spreads remain moderate,except in a few markets2.JP Morgan Asia Credit Index Corporate Z-Spreads(Basis points)02,5005001,0001,5002,000Source:Thomson Reuters Datastream.Note:JPM=JPMorgan;IG
177、=investment grade.Banking system exposures to housing loans are elevated,and in some cases higher than before the pandemic.3.Bank Exposure to Housing Loans(Percent of commercial bank assets)04055Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Country abbreviations are Internationa
178、l Organization for Standardization country codes.Rate increases can lead to significant capital losses where banks mark-to-market asset shares are large.4.Bank Securities Portfolios and Regulatory Capital(Percent of total bank assets as of December 2021;percent of risk-weighted assets,right scale)02
179、55015202530Sources:Fitch;IMF,Financial Soundness Indicators database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.AFS=available for sale;HTM=held to maturity.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MO
180、NETARY FUND May 202314Moreover,banks in the regions advanced economies and in a few emerging market economies entered the monetary tightening cycle with a substantial share of mark-to-market assets on their trading books(Figure 17,panel 4).In some of these countries,banks and nonbank financial insti
181、tutions in some of these countries are holding fixed-income securities abroad that feature long portfolio durations,leaving them especially exposed to significant mark-to-market valuation losses in the event of further global tightening in monetary policy or broader financial market conditions.Measu
182、res to contain banks risks exposures and liquidity mismatches could ringfence the system from possible market volatility.Balancing Financial and Monetary PoliciesClear communication about central banks objectives and policy functions is crucial to minimize economic and financial uncertainty.Unless f
183、inancial strains intensify significantly and threaten the health of the financial system,central banks should separate monetary policy objectives from financial stability goals.Policymakers can use available tools such as liquidity and lending facilities to address liquidity and financial stability
184、risks,which would allow them to continue to tighten monetary policy to address inflationary pressures.In case central banks need to pause the tightening of monetary policy amid high inflation to address financial stability risks,they should clearly communicate their continued resolve to bring inflat
185、ion back to target as soon as possible once financial stress lessens.While emerging market economies should generally let their currencies adjust as much as possible in response to fundamentals,foreign exchange interventions may be appropriate on a temporary basis if currency movements and capital f
186、lows raise financial stability risks,per the IMFs Integrated Policy Framework.Asian countries have accumulated foreign exchange reserves since last October,providing buffers for such foreign exchange interventions if needed.Fiscal PoliciesPolicymakers face the challenge of restoring public finances
187、after a range of emergency measures over the past three years while also addressing pressing spending priorities.Steady fiscal tightening would also help contain inflationary pressures by reducing aggregate demand,thus moderating the need for monetary tightening and reducing external imbalances.Acro
188、ss Asia,the increases in public debt burdens since the onset of the pandemic and the recent rise in interest rates have reduced fiscal space.Fiscal authorities are in the process of unwinding exceptional support provided over the past three years,resulting in significant near-term consolidation for
189、advanced economies,but also some consolidation for emerging markets,except for Bangladesh and Vietnam(Figure 18).But in most emerging markets in the region,2023 fiscal balances will remain well below medium-term debt-stabilizing 202220232024Source:IMF,World Economic Outlook database.Note:Bangladesh
190、and Vietnam use primary adjusted balance.202021=simple average.Numbers for China cover a narrower perimeter of the general government than IMF staffs estimates in China Article IV reports(see IMF 2023b for a reconciliation of the two estimates).Country abbreviations are International Organization fo
191、r Standardization country codes.AE=advanced economy;EMDE=emerging market and developing economy.Figure 18.Asia:Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance(Percent of GDP)AE AsiaIDNCHNBGDMYSINDTHAVNMPHLKORJPNNZLAUSHKGEMDE Asia9.07.56.04.53.01.50.01.5Fiscal consolidation is expected to support monetary tighte
192、ning in 2023.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND15levels.Moreover,if borrowing costs were to rise faster than currently projected(that is,because of a tightening in financial conditions),a much steeper fiscal adjustment would be require
193、d to stabilize debt(Figure 19).At the same time,fiscal pressures linked to aging populations,rising inequality,scarring from the pandemic,and increasing climate mitigation and adaptation needs are expected to increase over the coming years.These trends underscore the need for credible and robust fis
194、cal frameworks.Replacing untargeted support measures with temporary and targeted assistance to the vulner-able is critical to protect fiscal space.Rising food and fuel prices in 2022 put pressure on govern-ments to alleviate the burden on firms and households through subsidies and administered price
195、s;these measures may have contributed to keeping food and energy inflation in Asia lower than in global peers.However,such untargeted measures are costly,subject fiscal balances to commodity price risks,and fail to preserve market signals,encouraging higher consump-tion(see April 2023 Fiscal Monitor
196、,Chapter 1).If cost-of-living pressures continue,temporary and targeted support measures should be designed to protect the most vulnerable while maintaining appropriate market incentives and containing costs,especially in countries with limited fiscal space.Structural PoliciesScarring from the pande
197、mic,together with the medium-term slowdown in China,suggests that Asian economies may need to reorient toward new avenues for growth.Reforms to encourage broad-based innovation,accelerate the green transition,counter fragmentation trends,and ensure food security can help boost growth potential in a
198、resilient,sustainable,and inclusive manner.Investing in broad-based innovation and digitalization can improve aggregate productivity.Before the pandemic,Asia had emerged as a digital innovation hub,contributing to 60 percent of the worlds patents in digital and computer technologies(Dabla-Norris and
199、 others 2023).However,innovation in the region has typically been concentrated in a few economies and large firms,with slow technological diffusion creating productivity gaps and reducing aggregate economic benefits.To fully reap the productivity benefits from innovation,Asias policymakers should co
200、nsider enhancing digital infrastructure,alleviating financing constraints for small and medium-sized firms,enhancing the legal environment on data and intellectual property rights protection,and upskilling the workforce(Dabla-Norris and others 2023).Primary balance 2023Change in long-term debt stabi
201、lizing primary balance if real rates increaseDebt-stabilizing primary balance 2026Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The figure shows impact on long-term debt stabilizing primary balance assuming a level shift in the yield curve of 210 basis points(difference
202、 between US 10-year real rates during the pandemic and the long-term average between 1998 and 2019).The figure assumes the entire debt stock is refinanced at higher yieldsto the extent that maturity structure differs across countries,the impact on debt-stabilizing primary balance may occur over diff
203、erent time horizons.Debt-stabilzing primary balance reflects the fiscal balance needed to stabilize debt at 2026 levels.Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.Figure 19.Asia:Primary
204、Balances under Different Scenarios(Percent of GDP)AEsIDNNPLBGDMYSINDTHAVNMPHLKORJPNNZLAUSSGPEMDEs86420246.but may need to go further to stabilize public debt.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202316Accelerating the green transition remains a priority for Asia,g
205、iven that the region is highly susceptible to climate change and among the biggest contributors to global emissions.The green transition will require additional investment into energy infrastructures,energy efficiency,and clean energy sources.A rapid transition away from coal and toward cleaner sour
206、ces of energy would facilitate a reduction in emissions and address the air pollution crisis which has had significant effects on health and productivity in many Asian cities.However,as policymakers weigh alternative measures to meet emissions targets,they will also need to secure public support.Rec
207、ent survey results indicate that although a majority of the public in Asia considers climate change a serious problem,public knowledge about mitigation policies remains patchy(Li,Dabla-Norris,and Srinivasan 2023);as such,public information campaigns may be needed to ensure smooth implementation of a
208、ny new measures.The green transition offers opportunities for innovation-led growth.The ongoing boom in electric vehicle sales in Asia suggests that some economies have already started reorienting toward opportunities for innovation(Figure 20).Further international cooperation,especially as relates
209、to securing financial assistance for climate change adaptation for vulnerable emerging markets in the region(for example,Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands),remains essential.Given that fragmentation poses significant risks to the regions outlook,especially for emerging markets,collab-orative soluti
210、ons are needed to ensure that trade continues to act as an engine of growth.Restoring the World Trade Organizations dispute settlement system remains essential for strengthening the multilateral trading system.Within Asia,expanding the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partne
211、rship and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can help boost growth and resilience by providing fair and predictable rules for exchange.However,it remains critical that overlapping trade agreements do not contribute to further fragmentation.Food security is imperative for sustainable gro
212、wth in Asia.The prevalence of food insecurity in the region has been rising over the last decade(Rother and others 2022).Food insecurity increased in 2022 as supply chain disruptions and Russias war in Ukraine led to a spike in global food prices,compounded by lower produc-tionincluding for rice,a k
213、ey staple for the regionbecause of temporary increases in fuel and fertilizer costs(IMF 2023a).Natural disasters continue to create food shortages in vulnerable countries,most recently after devastating floods in Bangladesh.Reforms needed to combat food insecurity include developing robust social sa
214、fety nets,maintaining open trade to allow food to flow to countries in need,and investing in climate-resilient agriculture.AsiaEuropeNorth AmericaFigure 20.Total Electric Vehicle Sales(Thousands of vehicles)01,0003,0006,0002,0004,0005,0007,0008,0009,0002016 22324252627Sources:Statista;and
215、 IMF staff calculations.The green transition is expected to create significant growth opportunities.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND17ReferencesAhir,Hites,Nicholas Bloom,and Davide Furceri.2022.“The World Uncertainty Index.”NBER Work
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221、ty.”Asia and Pacific Departmental Paper,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Gopinath,Gita,Emine Boz,Camila Casas,Federico J.Dez,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,and Mikkel Plagborg-Mller.2020.“Dominant Currency Paradigm.”American Economic Review 110(3):677719.International Monetary Fund(IMF).2023a.“J
222、oint Statement by the Heads of the Food and Agriculture Organization,International Monetary Fund,World Bank Group,World Food Programme,and World Trade Organization on the Global Food and Nutrition Security Crisis.”Press Release 23/25,February 8.International Monetary Fund(IMF).2023b.“Peoples Republi
223、c of China:2022 Article IV Consultation.”Country Report 2023/067,Washington,DC.International Monetary Fund(IMF).2023c.“Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism.”Staff Discussion Notes 2023/001,Washington,DC.Jord,scar.2005.“Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Pro
224、jections.”American Economic Review 95(1):16182.Li,Bo,Era Dabla-Norris,and Krishna Srinivasan.2023.“Support for Climate Action Hinges on Public Understanding of Policy.”IMF Blog(blog),February 9.https:/www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/09/support-for-climate-action-hinges-on-public-understanding-
225、of-policy.Rother,Bjrn,Sebastian Sosa,Daehaeng Kim,Lukas Kohler,Galle Pierre,Naoya Kato,Majdi Debbich,Chiara Castrovillari,and others.2022.“Tackling the Global Food Crisis:Impact,Policy Response,and the Role of the IMF.”IMF Note 2022/004,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Taylor,John B.2000.“L
226、ow Inflation,Pass-through,and the Pricing Power of Firms.”European Economic Review 44(7):1389408.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202318Box 1.State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through1Asian currencies have fluctuated substantially since the beginning of 2022
227、amid elevated uncertainty and inflation.Based on Carrire-Swallow and others(2023b),this box argues that exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices is state dependent and significantly larger during periods of high inflation and economic uncertainty.This suggests that current exchange rate pass-
228、through into prices will be larger than it has been historically.Asian currencies experienced substantial depreciation against the US dollar through much of 2022,which raised concerns about inflationary pressures from exchange rate pass-through in many countries already trying to tackle high inflati
229、on.Though most currencies have since regained some of their lost value against the US dollar,they remain broadly weaker than at the start of the monetary tightening cycle.This box examines the state-dependence of exchange rate pass-through and documents the heterogeneity in how exchange rate develop
230、ments affect inflation.Exchange rate pass-through into consumer prices is estimated using monthly data from 50 advanced and emerging market economies since 1990,using the local projections approach(Jord 2005).2 Results suggest that following a 10 percent depreciation in local currency against the US
231、 dollar,consumer prices rise by 1.6 percent after 12 months on average(Box Figure 1.1).3 Inflationary effects stemming from depreciations also appear to be lower in Asia than in the rest of the world.These average estimates,however,mask important heterogeneity in the magnitude of the exchange rate p
232、ass-through both across countries and over time.First,the analysis shows that pass-through is significantly larger in countries with a higher share of imports invoiced in US dollars,consistent with Gopinath and others(2020).Second,the inflationary effects are stronger when inflation is initially hig
233、her and inflation expectations less certain,consistent with pass-through rates being endogenous to monetary policy credibility and correlated with the level of inflation(Taylor 2000).4 The magnitude of pass-through is larger when economic uncertainty is high,possibly because importers are more reluc
234、tant to reduce markups during periods of high uncertainty and therefore pass higher prices to domestic consumers.5 In the context of elevated global1 This box was prepared by Yan Carrire-Swallow,Melih Firat,and Daniel Jimnez.2 The local projections specification estimates the response of the log cha
235、nge in headline consumer price index to a change in local currency against the US dollar at different horizons,after controlling for lagged inflation,lagged bilateral exchange rate,and the trade-weighted producer price index of export partners.The sample includes 11 Asian economies.3 The magnitude o
236、f the effect is in line with previous evidence in the literature(Carrire-Swallow and others 2021).4 Country-level inflation forecast disagreement data are from Consensus Economics and are constructed as in Brito,Carrire-Swallow,and Gruss(2018).5 Monthly uncertainty indexes from Ahir,Bloom,and Furcer
237、i(2022)are used.Box Figure 1.1.Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Inflation(Percentage,impulse responses at one-year horizon)0.300.000.050.100.150.200.25Source:IMF staff calculations.Note:Estimates show the response of headline inflation against a 1 percent increase(depreciation)in local currency/US do
238、llars(USD).Error bars denote the confidence intervals for 90 percent significance.Standard errors are clustered at country level.ROW=rest of the world.InflationUncertaintyUSD invoiceimportForecastdisagreementRegionAverageAsiaROWLowHighLowHighLowHighLowHighOutlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabat
239、ed amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND19Box 1.(continued)uncertainty,and the high inflation and forecast disagreement that Asian economies have experienced since the beginning of 2022(Box Figure 1.2),these results suggest that pass-through is likely to be stronger today than histori
240、cal average.Empirical evidence also suggests that pass-through mate-rializes faster following depreciations than appreciations,but their impacts converge within about a year.At least in the short term,the recovery in Asian currencies observed in recent months will only partially offset the initial i
241、nflationary pressures from the depreciations observed in 2022.201519 avg.Past six monthsBox Figure 1.2.Pass-Through Determinants(Percent lhs;standard deviation rhs)91.40.00.20.40.60.81.01.2InflationForecastdisagreementAsia EMDEsROW EMDEsROW AEsAsia AEsAsia EMDEsROW EMDEsROW AEsAsia AEsSou
242、rces:Consensus Forecasts;Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;lhs=left-hand scale;rhs=right-hand scale;ROW=rest of the world.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202320Box 2.Corporate
243、 Sector Vulnerabilities amid Rising Interest Rates1The corporate sector in Asia emerged from the pandemic with elevated debt and concentrated pockets of vulnerability.The ongoing monetary tightening cycle is compounding fragilities as debt-servicing costs increase.This box considers the resilience o
244、f corporate balance sheets in the region to global downside scenarios involving a deterioration in funding conditions.Debt was already concentrated in firms with low interest coverage ratios(ICRs)and thus low ability to service debt as Asia emerged from the pandemic and entered a monetary tightening
245、 cycle.By mid-2022,more than 20 percent of corporate debt in China,India,Indonesia,Korea,and Thailand was held by firms with ICRs averaging less than one over the past four quarters(firms considered at risk of insolvency).The concentration of debt in at-risk firms was well above historical averages,
246、particularly in the industrial and the property and construction sectors.2 To the extent small and medium-sized enterprises,which are not captured in the data,account for a significant share of some sectors in the region,vulnerabilities could be even higher.3To assess the resilience of the corporate
247、 sector in Asia to higher interest rates and volatile global financial conditions,this box considers how firms ICRs would evolve under the two stress scenarios outlined in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook.The first,a plausible alternative scenario,assumes a moderate addi-tional tightening in gl
248、obal credit conditions,leading to a slight increase(of 150 basis points)in corporate spreads relative to the baseline4;the impact on growth and corporate earnings is limited.5 The second scenario,a severe downside scenario,entails a larger increase in corporate spreads(by around 250 basis points,dep
249、ending on the extent of exposure to global financial conditions),an increase in sovereign premiums due to flight to safety and dollar appreciation,and a strong hit to growth and earnings.6 This scenario can be interpreted as a credit crunch following the materialization of risks stemming from bank b
250、alance sheet fragilities.In either scenario,the impact on firm debt-service costs varies with the maturity structure of debt,with firms holding more short-term debt affected more strongly.7 Both scenarios factor in country-specific developments since mid-2022,notably rising interest rates and resili
251、ent growth and corporate earnings across much of the region.The stress tests reveal pockets of vulnerability across the region.Under a plausible alternative scenario,the share of debt in firms with ICRs less than one spikes in Korea,Singapore(reflecting higher shares of short-term debt),and Vietnam(
252、reflecting a multitude of firms with ICRs just above one in 2022).In a severe downside scenario,the concentration of debt in vulnerable firms rises significantly across the region1 This box was prepared by Monica Petrescu.2 On average over the three years before the pandemic,the share of debt in fir
253、ms with ICR less than one was 7 percent in the property sector and 16 percent in the industrial sector,compared to 18 percent and 24 percent,respectively,by the second quarter of 2022.3 Analysis in this box is based on firm balance sheet data from Capital IQ.The database covers only publicly listed
254、firms,and as such,while this analysis is likely representative of systemic firms,it is not representative of small and medium-sized enterprises.4 The baseline in each country also reflects the impact of the recent monetary tightening cycle on borrowing costs.5 The downgrade to growth in the plausibl
255、e alternative scenario is calibrated in line with the 2023 World Economic Outlook;real 2023 growth relative to baseline falls by less than half a percentage point in advanced economies,while the impact is more muted for emerging markets.The impact on inflation is minimal.6 The shocks to growth and i
256、nflation in the severe downside scenario for each country are calibrated in line with the results of the model outlined in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook,Box 1.3.The shock applied to firm earnings varies between countries in line with the variation in the total shock to nominal GDP growth.7 T
257、he increase in borrowing costs is assumed to be fully passed on to interest costs for short-term debt,but not for long-term debt,where only a part of debt is assumed to be rolled over.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND21Box 2.(continue
258、d)except in Australia,which benefits from resilient balance sheets(Box Figure 2.1,panel 1).Among sectors,the property and construction sector is one of the most vulnerable to stress,with the concentration of debt in at-risk firms rising sharply under the severe downside scenario;vulnerabilities to s
259、tress are also visible in the consumer staples,IT,and industrial sectors(Box Figure 2.1,panel 2).Within the property sector,the concentration of debt in at-risk firms rises throughout most of the region in a severe downside scenario,but most notably in Korea and Vietnam(due to a high share of firms
260、with ICRs just above one in 2022)(Box Figure 2.1,panel 3).2022:Q2Severe downsidePlausible alternative2022:Q2Severe downsidePlausible alternative2022:Q2Severe downsidePlausible alternative2022:Q2Severe downside1.Debt in Vulnerable Firms,by Country(Debt in firms with ICR 1,as share of corporate debt)2
261、.Debt in Vulnerable Firms,by Sector(Debt in firms with ICR 1,as share of corporate debt)3.Property and Construction Sector:Debt in Vulnerable Firms(Debt in firms with ICR 1,as share of corporate debt in the property sector)4.Vulnerable Firms with Significant Cash Holdings(Firms with ICR 1 and cash g
262、reater than twice annual interest costs,as share of all firms with ICR 1)Box Figure 2.1.Cash and Debt in Vulnerable Firms under Stress ScenariosAUSHKGJPNSGPKORCHNINDIDNMYSPHLTHAVNMAUSHKGJPNSGPKORCHNINDIDNMYSPHLTHAVNMSources:Bloomberg Finance L.P.;Capital IQ database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:I
263、CR in the second quarter of 2022 is based on the average of the latest four quarters.The property and construction sector for Singapore covers primarily construction firms.Country abbreviations are International Organization for Standardization country codes.ICR=interest coverage ratio;IT=informatio
264、n technology.02040600204060HKGJPNSGPKORCHNINDMYSVNM020406080020406080100CommunicationConsumerdiscretionaryConsumerstapleEnergyHealthcareIndustrialMaterialsProperty andconstructionITREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202322Box 2.(continued)Despite elevated vulner
265、abilities,market sentiment on firms in the region appears mixed(Figure17,panel 2).One potential explanation is that firms built up significant cash buffers during the preceding period of low interest rates.By the second quarter of 2022,more than half of at-risk firms(with ICR less than one)in Asia h
266、eld cash worth at least twice annual interest costs(except in India,Indonesia,and Vietnam).However,cash holdings are expected to be depleted over time in firms with low interest coverage ratios,unless earnings increase faster than interest costs.In a severe downside scenario,the share of at-risk fir
267、ms that have cash buffers covering twice their annual interest costs would drop below 50 percent by the end of 2023 throughout the region,except in Japan and Singapore(Box Figure 2.1,panel 4).Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND23Table 1
268、.Asia:Real GDP(Percent;year-over-year change)Actuals and Latest ProjectionsDifference from October 2022 WEO Update202020224202220232024Asia0.96.83.84.64.40.20.30.2Advanced Economies2.44.01.81.61.70.50.40.2 Australia1.85.23.71.61.70.10.30.1 New Zealand1.56.12.41.10.80.10.81.2 Japan 4.32.11
269、.11.31.00.60.30.3 Hong Kong SAR 6.56.43.53.53.12.70.40.1 Korea 0.74.12.61.52.40.00.50.3 Taiwan Province of China13.46.52.52.12.60.80.70.5 Singapore 3.98.93.61.52.10.60.80.5Emerging Markets and Developing Economies20.57.54.45.35.10.00.40.1 Bangladesh3.46.97.15.56.50.10.50.0 Brunei Darussalam1.11.61.5
270、3.33.52.70.00.3 Cambodia3.13.05.05.86.20.10.40.4 China 2.28.43.05.24.50.20.80.0 India35.89.16.85.96.30.00.20.5 Indonesia 2.13.75.35.05.10.00.00.3 Lao P.D.R.0.42.12.34.04.00.10.90.3 Malaysia5.53.18.74.54.53.30.10.4 Myanmar3.217.92.02.62.60.00.70.8 Mongolia 4.61.64.84.55.52.30.51.5 Nepal2.44.25.84.45.
271、11.60.60.0 Philippines 9.55.77.66.05.81.11.00.2 Sri Lanka3.53.38.73.01.50.00.00.0 Thailand 6.21.62.63.43.60.20.30.0 Vietnam 2.92.68.05.86.91.00.40.3Pacific Island Countries43.61.31.03.93.60.20.30.1 Fiji17.05.114.57.05.02.00.10.7 Kiribati1.47.91.22.52.40.20.10.4 Marshall Islands1.61.71.33.02.00.20.20
272、.0 Micronesia1.83.20.62.82.80.00.10.0 Nauru4.12.73.01.02.02.11.00.4 Palau7.512.12.98.79.60.13.60.5 Papua New Guinea3.20.14.53.74.40.71.41.4 Samoa3.17.16.05.03.61.01.00.6REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKAsia and PacificINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May 202324Actuals and Latest ProjectionsDifference from Octobe
273、r 2022 WEO Update202020224202220232024 Solomon Islands3.40.64.12.52.40.40.10.0 Tonga50.52.72.02.52.80.00.40.1 Tuvalu4.31.80.74.33.12.30.80.9 Vanuatu5.00.61.93.53.60.20.40.1ASEAN63.23.25.74.64.90.70.10.2ASEAN-574.44.05.54.54.60.60.00.3EMDEs excluding China and India2.43.35.64.75.10.60.10.2
274、Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff estimates and projections.Note:ASEAN=Association of Southeast Asian Nations;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;WEO=World Economic Outlook.1 Taiwan Province of China forecast data source is from Consensus Forecasts.2 EMDEs exclude
275、Pacific Island countries and other small states.3 Indias data are reported on a fiscal year basis.Its fiscal year starts on April 1 and ends on March 31.4 Pacific Island countries aggregate is calculated using simple average;all other aggregates are calculated using weighted average.5 Tongas data ar
276、e reported on a fiscal year basis.Its fiscal year starts on July 1 and ends June 30.6 ASEAN comprises Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Indonesia,Lao P.D.R.,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines,and Singapore.7 ASEAN-5 comprises Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,and Thailand.Outlook for Asia and Pacific:Recovery Unabated amid UncertaintyMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND25