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1、Travel in LondonReport 13 Transport for London 2020 All rights reserved.Reproduction permitted for research,private study and internal circulation within an organisation.Extracts may be reproduced provided the source is acknowledged.Disclaimer This publication is intended to provide accurate informa
2、tion.However,Transport for London(TfL)and the authors accept no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions or for any damage or loss arising from use of the information provided.1 Travel in London,report 13 Overview.7 1.Introduction.43 1.1 TfLs Travel in London reports.43 1.2 Travel in
3、London report 13.43 1.3 About Transport for London(TfL).43 1.4 Further information.44 Part 1:Travel in London until the end of 2019/20.45 2.Overall travel demand and mode shares.47 2.1 Introduction.47 2.2 Londons population.47 2.3 Total travel in London.51 2.4 Trips in London.52 2.5 Journey stages i
4、n London.54 2.6 Mode shares in London.55 2.7 Active,efficient,sustainable mode shares.58 2.8 Travel by London residents:introduction.61 2.9 Travel by London residents:trip rates.61 2.10 Travel by London residents:active,efficient and sustainable mode shares.66 3.Healthy Streets and active travel.71
5、3.1 Introduction.71 3.2 Travel-related physical activity.71 3.3 Cycling in London.74 3.4 Participation in,and attitudes towards,cycling in London.77 3.5 Londons developing cycle network.78 3.6 Pedestrian activity in central London.78 3.7 Assessing the healthiness of Londons streets.80 3.8 Reducing r
6、oad danger.83 3.9 Overall trends for motorised road traffic in London.92 3.10 Trends in freight traffic.95 3.11 Trends in licensed taxis and private hire vehicles traffic.97 4.A good public transport experience.99 4.1 Introduction.99 4.2 Recent trends in public transport demand.99 4.3 Recent trends
7、in public transport service provision and operational performance.100 4.4 Overall public transport capacity in relation to demand.100 4.5 Buses.102 4.6 London Underground.104 4.7 London Overground and TfL Rail.106 2 Travel in London,report 13 4.8 Docklands Light Railway(DLR).108 4.9 London Trams.109
8、 4.10 National Rail in London.110 4.11 London River Services.114 4.12 Emirates Air Line.114 4.13 Public transport:customer safety.114 4.14 Public transport:crime and antisocial behaviour.115 4.15 Public transport:customer satisfaction and Care.116 4.16 Impact of physical accessibility on journey tim
9、es.118 4.17 Public transport:fares and affordability.119 5.Improving the environment and supporting Londons growth.121 5.1 Improving air quality in London.121 5.2 Reducing the impact of transport on the environment.124 5.3 Electrifying Londons vehicle fleet:focus on rapid chargers.126 5.4 Supporting
10、 new homes for London.132 Part 2:Impact of coronavirus on travel in London during 2020.135 6 The coronavirus pandemic and travel in London.137 6.1 Introduction.137 6.2 Context to travel and the coronavirus pandemic.137 6.3 Development of the pandemic.138 6.4 Impact of coronavirus on the UK and Londo
11、n economy.145 6.5 Typology of the impacts of coronavirus on travel.151 7 Impacts of the pandemic on travel demand.153 7.1 Introduction.153 7.2 Overall demand trends on Londons key transport networks.153 7.3 Bus demand and the pandemic.156 7.4 TfLs rail services and the pandemic.163 7.5 Motorised roa
12、d travel and the pandemic.172 7.6 Cycling and the pandemic.177 7.7 Walking and the pandemic.183 7.8 Estimates of relative demand by mode and mode shares.185 8 Developments arising from,and responses to,the pandemic.189 8.1 Introduction.189 8.2 The pandemic and air quality.189 8.3 The pandemic and ro
13、ad danger.195 8.4 Temporary changes to the Congestion Charge scheme.200 8.5 Streetspace for London.204 3 Travel in London,report 13 9 Coronavirus and travel behaviour.217 9.1 Introduction.217 9.2 The pandemic and travel behaviour:personal safety.218 9.3 Travel for work.223 9.4 Travel for shopping an
14、d leisure.227 9.5 Active travel.233 9.6 Mode choice.238 10 Planning for recovery and potential long-term implications for travel in London.243 10.1 Introduction.243 10.2 An analytical framework for recovery planning.243 10.3 Early Recovery phase.244 10.4 Steady State Recovery phase.246 10.5 Possible
15、 longer-term implications:our scenarios.252 References.260 4 Travel in London,report 13 5 Travel in London,report 13 Travel in London report 13 6 Travel in London,report 13 Overview 7 Travel in London,report 13 Overview Travel in London report 13 Travel in London is TfLs annual publication that summ
16、arises trends and developments relating to travel and transport in London.Its principal function is to describe how travel is changing and to provide an interpretative overview of progress towards implementing the Mayors Transport Strategy.It also provides an evidence and analysis base for the gener
17、al use of stakeholders and policymakers.Ordinarily,the focus of this report would have been exclusively on trends up to the end of 2019,or the 2019/20 financial year.However,the global coronavirus pandemic in 2020 has led to widespread disruption and change to travel in London(and to the aspects of
18、peoples daily lives that underlie travel demand)of a scale unprecedented in modern times.The report this year is therefore presented in two parts.The first part of the report reviews trends and developments in the pre-pandemic period up to the end of 2019 or the 2019/20 financial year,primarily in t
19、erms of the aims of the Mayors Transport Strategy.Although many of these trends were radically affected by the pandemic in 2020,it is nevertheless these trends and conditions the pre-pandemic baseline by which Londons transport recovery from the pandemic will be conditioned and against which recover
20、y will take place.They remain,therefore,central to contemporary concerns.The second part of the report considers developments related to the pandemic in 2020,in so far as available data allow,and recognising that at the time of writing the pandemic is still playing out.The aim is to assemble and int
21、erpret an emerging evidence base that can be used to guide the recovery and inform our longer-term plans for supporting growth,prosperity and daily life in London over the next decade or so.Part 1:Travel trends before the pandemic Slowing growth in travel demand and progress towards the active,effic
22、ient and sustainable mode share aim over the last few years Population,economic and societal change led to slowing growth of travel demand in London in the four years up to 2019,and slower than expected progress towards the Mayors aim of an 80 per cent mode share for active,efficient and sustainable
23、 modes.Londons population had previously increased rapidly by over 1.3 million people in the two decades up to 2011.More recently,the rate of growth in Londons population slowed,with particularly slow growth since 2016.Londons population increased by just 0.6 per cent in 2019,the slowest rate of gro
24、wth since 2004;this compares to typical increases greater than 1 per cent per year in the earlier part of the decade.Economic trends reducing personal disposable incomes,particularly affecting discretionary leisure trips(often made by public transport)were also an important factor,although there wer
25、e signs in the economic and travel data for 2019 that some of these pressures were beginning to ease.For example,per person trip rates in London increased for the second year running,to an average of 2.21 trips per person per day,following a prolonged period of slow decline.Overview 8 Travel in Lond
26、on,report 13 A third group of contributing factors under the broad heading of technology-enabled and wider lifestyle changes,such as increased working from home and online shopping,were also thought to have influenced trends over the last five years,although the evidence base for these(before the pa
27、ndemic)was not conclusive.Overall travel demand and mode shares in 2019 Data for 2019 continued these broad trends of recent years.In 2019,an average of 27.0 million trips per day were made to,from or within London.This was an increase of 0.7 per cent compared to 2018 and of 7.6 per cent compared to
28、 2010.Figure 1 summarises these changes as they affected the core modes,from which the overall trend of slowing recent growth is evident.On this basis,the active,efficient and sustainable mode share for 2019 was estimated to be 63.2 per cent,a 0.2 percentage point increase over 2018,and 3.6 percenta
29、ge points higher than 2010.Figure 1 Estimated average daily trips by main mode,7-day week,2000-2019.Source:TfL City Planning.Healthy Streets and healthy people The Healthy Streets Approach is central to the Mayors vision to create a better city for all Londoners.It is an overarching framework for th
30、e design and management of Londons streets,incorporating measures to encourage walking,cycling and use of public transport,to reduce road danger,tackle poor air quality,reduce car dependency,improve the environment and deliver an accessible and inclusive transport system.Key indicators relating to t
31、hese aims are reviewed below.051015202530Trips per day(millions)CycleWalkPublic transportPrivate transportOverview 9 Travel in London,report 13 Active travel In 2019/20,42 per cent of Londoners achieved 20 minutes of active travel per day,an increase of 3 percentage points on 2018/19.Although the pr
32、oportion of London residents who have achieved 20 minutes of active travel increased in the last two years,there is still considerable effort required to achieve the aim of all Londoners walking or cycling for at least 20 minutes per day by 2041.Cycling Recent years have seen a substantial increase
33、in cycling in London,reflecting investment and other measures to encourage active travel.The 2019 calendar year saw a small year-on-year decline of 2.7 per cent in cycling volumes(mainly driven by trends in outer London,and reflecting unusually poor weather during the counting periods).Since 2015,ho
34、wever,cycling volumes have seen a net increase of almost 5 per cent,which represents an estimated 9 per cent more cycling trips than in 2015.In 2019,11.5 per cent of Londoners lived within 400 metres of the London-wide cycle network,compared to the Mayors aim of 28 per cent by 2024,a 30.6 per cent i
35、ncrease on 2018.At October 2020,26 per cent of the strategic cycle network has been delivered(362km out of approx.1,400km).This has led to an increase in the proportion of Londoners living within 400 metres of the cycle network to 17.9 per cent,including all the routes completed so far as part of th
36、e Streetspace for London programme.Where investment has been made,we have seen large increases in cycling locally,such as on Cycleway 24(Forest Road in the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland)where since construction began in 2015 flows have increased in some places by more than 50 per cent(which equates to
37、 an annual 13 per cent growth)or on Cycleway 22(Newham Greenway),where cycle flows have increased by more than 35 per cent since 2017(an annual equivalent of 18 per cent per year).However,cycling remains relatively uneven socio-demographically,with a preponderance of higher-income white males.Reduci
38、ng road danger The Mayors Vision Zero Action Plan sets targets of a 65 per cent reduction in all KSI casualties(people killed or seriously Injured)on Londons roads by 2022,and a 70 per cent reduction in people killed or seriously injured in or by a bus by 2022.There were 25,341 reported personal inj
39、ury collisions in London in 2019,resulting in 125 people regrettably being killed,3,780 being seriously injured and 26,102 being slightly injured.Overall,2019 showed a continuing decline in the number of people killed or seriously injured on Londons roads compared to the 2005-09 baseline,with a four
40、 per cent decrease in persons killed or sustaining serious injury compared to 2018.This was a 39 per cent reduction towards the overall target of 65 per cent by 2022.Although a positive trajectory overall,the rate of progress towards Vision Zero targets has slowed in recent years,as further gains be
41、come progressively more challenging.The number of cyclists regrettably killed in collisions in 2019 was down by 70 per cent on the 2005-09 baseline,from 17 to five;whereas nationally there has been just a six per cent decrease since 2008.The number of children tragically killed or seriously injured
42、in 2019 was 65 per cent lower than the 2005-09 baseline.There Overview 10 Travel in London,report 13 was a 12 per cent decrease in bus-involved casualties from 2018,down from 238 to 209.This amounts to a 64 per cent reduction towards the overall target of 70 per cent by 2022.General road traffic tre
43、nds in London Recent years have been characterised by relatively stable overall road traffic levels in London,with a net decrease of 0.5 per cent in overall vehicle kilometres over the period 2010-2018,according to Department for Transport statistics.To put this in context,given Londons growth in th
44、e interim and the sustained mode shift towards active,efficient and sustainable modes,we estimated that,in 2018 and comparing the period since 2000,there were 2.9 million fewer car trips per day than there would otherwise have been had the mode shares stayed the same.The picture for 2019 is,however,
45、complicated by a change in methodology for the DfT surveys and we are working through what this could mean for London datasets.Data from TfLs traffic counts(figure 2)provides an historic picture very similar to the previous DfT estimates of broad stability in traffic levels,with an estimated 1.7 per
46、 cent net increase in traffic flows between 2009 and 2018.In the latest year,according to this indicator,traffic flows remained the same.The chart also shows the immediate impact of the coronavirus pandemic,with flows down across all areas of London in early 2020(see also Part 2 of this report).Figu
47、re 2 All motor vehicle traffic flows by area,13-period rolling average,2008/09-2020/21.Source:TfL Surface Transport.Within this broadly stable overall picture there have nevertheless been important and significant trends affecting individual vehicle types.We estimate that,over the period between 201
48、0 and 2018,the number of vans crossing TfLs strategic counting 5060708090100110Index:P13 2006/07=100Central LondonInner LondonOuter LondonGreater LondonOverview 11 Travel in London,report 13 cordons in London increased by 10 per cent and HGV flows increased by two per cent.Car traffic crossing these
49、 cordons increased by one per cent.Between 2010 and 2019 traffic crossing the London boundary cordon increased by 5.5 per cent(figure 3).Figure 3 Daily number of motor vehicles across strategic cordons,2000-2019.Source:TfL Surface Transport.An important growth area in recent years has been private h
50、ire vehicle(PHV)traffic.The number of licensed PHV drivers has increased by 100 per cent since 2008/09.Although it is not straightforward to identify these vehicles in traffic counts,and therefore historic data is not available,it is estimated that,in March 2019,licensed PHVs accounted for approxima
51、tely 29 per cent of daily vehicle kilometres in central London,19 per cent in inner London,and 8 per cent in outer London on an average day.A good public transport experience:service provision Key operational metrics for public transport were impacted by the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic aff
52、ecting the very end of the 2019/20 financial year.Reflecting this,Londons public transport networks operated services equivalent to 111 billion place-kilometres(vehicle kilometres multiplied by the capacity of the vehicle)in total,down by 2.4 per cent from 2018/19.Over a longer time period,overall c
53、apacity has increased by 28 per cent since 2009/10 and is 2.3 per cent higher than in 2015/16.In 2019/20,bus kilometres operated were 4.3 per cent lower than in 2016/17,reflecting some network restructuring in recent years as well as initial pandemic impacts.Some 97.8 per cent of the schedule was op
54、erated,similar to recent years,and average bus speeds were 9.3 miles per hour for the third successive year.65707580859095100105110Index:2000=100Central London cordonInner London cordonLondon boundary cordonThames screenlineOverview 12 Travel in London,report 13 On London Underground,train kilometre
55、s in 2019/20(both scheduled,at 87.7 million,and proportion operated,at 94 per cent)decreased slightly,and other performance metrics also saw small falls,largely reflecting the early stages of the pandemic.In 2019/20,London Overground did not see a change in operated train-kilometres while TfL Rail o
56、perated the highest ever levels of service following commencement of services between Reading and Paddington,preparatory to the forthcoming Elizabeth line,and the rolling out of new trains on more sections of the network.A good public transport experience:the wider customer experience During 2019/20
57、,19 customers tragically lost their lives across our public transport networks.The total number of customers injured in absolute terms fell to 9,729,compared with 10,058 in 2018/19 a 3 per cent reduction.Slips,trips and falls accounted for 76 per cent of London Underground injuries and 51 per cent a
58、cross all surface transport modes,including buses an average of 2.03 incidents per million customer journeys.The Bus Safety Standard is our most important measure in helping reduce both the severity and number of casualties from incidents involving buses.We have 241 buses in the fleet that meet the
59、requirements of the new standard.These vehicles have better mirrors,enhanced anti-slip floors,early warnings of unintended acceleration and an acoustic warning for quiet running vehicles.We have ambitious plans to roll out the standard across Londons bus fleet.The Bus Safety Standard will help us re
60、ach our target of nobody being killed on,or by,a bus by 2030,and nobody being killed or seriously injured on our roads by 2041.Public transport in London continues to be a low crime environment and a safe way to travel.However,there has been an upturn in reported crime on most modes in 2019/20,large
61、ly driven by increases in theft offences and reflecting initiatives to encourage reporting of crime.TfL cares about its customers is the measure we use to understand whether we are meeting expectations and making Every Journey Matter for our customers.Care measures Londoners overall perceptions of T
62、fL.Recent measurements show a slowly increasing trend with typically around 50-55 per cent of people agreeing with the statement on a quarterly basis.Around 55 per cent of customers agree that TfL is making it easier for disabled people to get around,a similar level to recent years.Some Londoners re
63、quire more time to complete journeys by public transport if they can only use the step-free network.In some cases,their journeys may not be possible.In 2019/20,an average journey using only bus and step-free stations was estimated to take eight minutes longer than the average by the fastest availabl
64、e route.This is an improvement of one minute over the position in 2018/19,and a three-minute improvement over the 2015 baseline,and in the latest year reflects improvements to step-free access facilities at 24 stations across London,including those on the western extension of the forthcoming Elizabe
65、th line.The average fare yield per passenger journey for all modes was 1.22 in 2019/20,an increase of 2.4 per cent compared with 2018/19 and of 6.7 per cent compared with 2015/16.London Underground has the highest yield,at just over 2 per journey.This Overview 13 Travel in London,report 13 has incre
66、ased by 6.9 per cent since 2015/16.In contrast,the lowest yield is on the bus,at 68 pence per passenger journey.This has risen by just 2.4 per cent since 2015/16.Improving Londons air quality In October 2020,the Mayor released a report which assessed the changes to Londons air quality between 2016 a
67、nd 2020.The report reveals both dramatic and widespread improvement to air quality in London,particularly for nitrogen dioxide(NO2)as well as the key role of transport policies such as the Ultra Low Emission Zone(ULEZ)in central London and the introduction of Low Emission Bus Zones in improving air
68、quality.In London in 2016 two million Londoners,including 400,000 children,lived in areas that exceeded legal limits for NO2,with thousands of Londoners dying prematurely every year due to exposure to air pollution.By 2019,this had reduced to 119,000 people,a reduction of 94 per cent.Between 2016 an
69、d 2019 the reduction in annual average NO2 at roadside sites in central London was five times the national average reduction,reflecting the impact of policies specific to London.The number of state primary and secondary schools in areas exceeding the legal limit for NO2 fell from 455 in 2016 to 14 i
70、n 2019,a reduction of 97 per cent.In 2016 monitoring sites in London recorded over 4,000 hours above the short-term legal limit for NO2.In 2019 this reduced to around 100,a 97 per cent reduction.Figure 4 Average monthly NO2 concentration at available roadside monitoring sites with/without ULEZ,centr
71、al and inner London,2010-2020.Source:TfL City Planning,based on London Air Quality Network.The evidence suggests that the most significant improvements in London have been driven by local,as opposed to national,policy.Dramatic improvements for 020406080100120NO2concentration(gm-3)Central London-actu
72、al(ULEZ)Inner London-actual(ULEZ)Central London-no-ULEZ scenarioInner London-no-ULEZ scenarioOverview 14 Travel in London,report 13 NO2 in central London,reflecting the introduction of the ULEZ,and more locally for Low Emission Bus Zones,are demonstrated in this report.Figure 4 shows the trend in NO
73、2 at roadside sites in central and inner London.The figure shows actual averaged measurements for NO2(darker lines)as well as the long-term or background trend,projected as if there was no ULEZ.The gap between the dark and light blue lines is the estimated specific impact of ULEZ in central London.R
74、educing CO2 emissions The Mayors Transport Strategy sets a target for London to be a zero-carbon city by 2050,and the Mayor has recently announced his ambition to bring this date forward to 2030.Transport contributes 26 per cent of the Capitals greenhouse gas emissions.Many of the Mayors core transp
75、ort aims will contribute to reducing CO2 emissions for example the aim for an 80 per cent active,efficient and sustainable mode share.Figure 5 shows the expected trajectory,given our current plan,for reducing CO2 emissions related to transport in London.Figure 5 Baseline and forecast CO2 emissions f
76、rom transport in London.Source:TfL Safety,Health and Environment.Note:Forecasts use grid average emissions.Future attributable emissions will reflect TfLs ongoing energy procurement.Supporting electric vehicles for London In May 2018,the Mayor established the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Taskforc
77、e.The Taskforce published the London Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Delivery Plan in June 2019.Key findings showed that by 2020,the Capital would need 200 to 400 rapid charging points and 3,400 to 4,700 slow or fast charging points.By 2025,this could rise to between 2,300 to 4,100 rapid charging po
78、ints and 33,700 to 47,500 slow or fast charging points.TfL committed to installing 300 rapid charging points by the end of 2020,using funding from the Office for Low Emission Vehicles(OLEV).The first annual monitoring report was published in October and indicates 020052017/182020/212025/2
79、62030/31Tonnes of CO2per year(millions)Non-TfL road&rail(MTS reference case)TfL busesLU,rail,buildings,infrastructure and head officesOverview 15 Travel in London,report 13 that London has already exceeded the levels of infrastructure that the delivery plan projected would be needed by the end of 20
80、20,with over 5,500 charging points installed in total,including 450 rapid charging points.Initial data,reviewed later in this report,is providing important feedback about how this infrastructure is being used,helping to guide future infrastructure delivery priorities.New homes and jobs for London Be
81、tween 1997 and 2019 the number of jobs in London grew by 46 per cent and the number of people by 28 per cent,but the number of homes grew by only 19 per cent.This means that new housing supply has failed to keep up with demand.The GLA sets housing delivery targets for London and the boroughs.Across
82、London there were more than 36,000 housing completions in 2018/19.Of these,6,500 were affordable homes.This is below the adopted London Plan target of 42,000 but is an increase in housing delivery from the previous year.The 2018/19 figure is a 16 per cent increase on 2017/18 and is the second highes
83、t figure recorded in this series,behind the peak of 40,600 net completions recorded in 2016/17.Summary of progress towards the Mayors Transport Strategy aims Figure 6 is a visualisation of the state of play in relation to the key outcomes sought by the strategy based on the data and trends described
84、 in this report up to a point just before the coronavirus pandemic.The categorisation should be interpreted as a periodic and indicative health check on the progress of our journey from a retrospective viewpoint.As would be expected,the visualisation highlights several key achievements for example t
85、he dramatic improvements to air quality referred to above as well as areas where further attention is required.Figure 6 Progress towards Mayors Transport Strategy aims to end of 2019.Source:TfL City Planning.AccelerationAccelerationneededneededOn or ahead On or ahead of trajectoryof trajectoryHealth
86、y Streets andHealthy Streets andhealthy peoplehealthy peopleA good public A good public transport experiencetransport experienceGoodGoodGrowthGrowthMode Mode shareshare80%active,efficient and sustainable by 2041Active peopleVision ZeroEfficient use of spaceImproving air qualityZero carbon cityGreen
87、infrastructure and biodiversityClimate change adaptationPublic transport connectivity and capacityAccessibility and inclusionPublic transport reliabilityCustomer service and qualityNew homes and jobsBehind Behind trajectorytrajectory18/19Overview 16 Travel in London,report 13 The coronavirus pandemi
88、c has,however,sharply interrupted the picture of incremental progress of the past few years bringing a host of short and longer-term challenges to these aims,as well as some opportunities,for example around embedding active travel.The second part of this report reviews and assembles emerging evidenc
89、e about the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on travel in London so far,focusing on those topics which will be of relevance to progressing Londons transport recovery in the context of the Mayors transport aims.Part 2:Impact of coronavirus on travel in London during 2020 Coronavirus:high-level imp
90、acts The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted normal daily life in London to an extent that is unprecedented in modern times.These impacts are shared to differing degrees in cities across the globe,although ultimately they are expected to be temporary,albeit with the possibility of some lasting change
91、s.The remainder of this Overview includes a review of top-level trends and developments across the range of travel-related indicators of interest,which give a sense of scale to these events and inform and underlie thinking about our future transport recovery.Coronavirus:morbidity,mortality and inequ
92、ality The first UK deaths from coronavirus were reported at the beginning of March 2020 and rose rapidly to a peak of 1,074 deaths in the UK on 8 April and in London a peak of 225 deaths on 4 April.The number of deaths then began to decline as the impacts of strict lockdown measures helped to slow t
93、he spread of the virus.At the time of writing England is entering a second lockdown period,following a sharp rise in new cases and hospitalisations from the virus,and there is the potential for significant continuing disruption over the winter of 2020/21.Figure 7 shows pandemic-related deaths in Lon
94、don in the context of all deaths and the five-year running average for all deaths.The region with the highest proportion of deaths involving coronavirus has been London,with 8,536 deaths,making up 30.6 per cent of all deaths.London had the highest age-standardised mortality rate of deaths involving
95、coronavirus between March and July 2020.Across all age groups in England,males had a higher rate of coronavirus-related deaths than females.The age-specific mortality rate increased consistently with age,with those aged 90 years and over making up the largest proportion of coronavirus-related deaths
96、.Data from the ONS shows that the virus does not have the same impact on all demographic groups.In England,all ethnic groups other than Chinese females were at higher risk of coronavirus-related mortality than the White ethnic population,with Black African men and Black Caribbean women having the hi
97、ghest risk.Although some existing health problems put people at greater risk of being seriously ill and dying from coronavirus,that could not explain differences in death rates among ethnic groups.Instead,the differences are more likely to be explained by demographic and socio-economic factors,such
98、as where people live and the kind of jobs they do.In turn,this offers important lessons for the recovery and equality in London more generally,and the role of transport in facilitating it.Overview 17 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 7 Weekly deaths in London,Jan 2020-Oct 2020.Source:Office for Nati
99、onal Statistics.The pandemic and the economy The UKs economy contracted by 20 per cent in the quarter from April to June 2020,making it the hardest hit of all 37 OECD nations,and two consecutive quarters of economic decline resulted in the first recession since 2008/09.The monthly decline in GDP in
100、April 2020 was three times greater than the fall experienced during the 2008/09 recession(figure 8).However,the fall in GDP was largely concentrated in April,during the peak of lockdown,and GDP has since grown month on month.In September,GDP was 22.9 per cent higher than in April,although it remains
101、 8.3 per cent below February 2020 levels.Recovery of GDP is,however,slowing.The impacts of the 2008/09 recession which,it is believed,were still affecting travel demand in London in 2019,show that economic shocks of this scale can take many years to work through,although the 2008/09 recession had ve
102、ry different causes.In other indicators of economic impact:Unemployment impacts continue to emerge as the economic outlook remains uncertain.Lags in reporting,the eventual end of the furlough scheme and new coronavirus measures affecting businesses mean that significant further reductions in employm
103、ent are expected in the coming months.Retail spending,however,largely returned to pre-pandemic levels in late summer.Recovery of retail spending has not been directly comparable to the return to retail footfall,as the proportion spent online continues to be around 10 percentage points higher than in
104、 2019,and there may also be an element of lagged purchases following the spring lockdown.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500DeathsWeek endingAll deathsCoronavirus deathsAll deaths(2015-2019 average)Overview 18 Travel in London,report 13 The financial impact of the pandemic has not been equal across i
105、ncome groups.Lower income groups are more likely to have had to use savings or take out loans during the lockdown period.Additionally,the expected rise in unemployment is likely to disproportionally impact those on lower incomes,all of which may compound existing pressures on discretionary activitie
106、s and trips.Figure 8 UKs Gross Domestic Product(GDP)monthly index,2007-2020.Source:Office for National Statistics.The pandemic and travel demand The pandemic has had large-scale effects on travel demand in London.These large-scale reductions have,however,played through differently on different netwo
107、rks,different modes and in different parts of London.It is important to recognise at the outset that pandemic-related changes to travel largely reflect factors extrinsic to the transport networks themselves.A combination of government regulation and economic impacts and business and individual respo
108、nses to these have been the primary drivers of travel change.However,it is also the case that each of the networks and travel modes have unique characteristics that have shaped travel trends within this overall context,for example the obvious attraction of active travel as a permitted activity durin
109、g the spring lockdown and during the favourable summer months of 2020,as well as differing perceptions of the virus transmission risk.Figure 9 shows actual travel demand on the principal modes,arising from public transport ticketing and automated road traffic counts.7580859095100105Index:2018=100Ove
110、rview 19 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 9 Change in demand on the main transport networks,7-day moving average,2020 vs 2019.Source:TfL Data and Analytics.Note:No bus data available 20 April 28 June due to middle door-boarding.The values provided are estimates.In the week of the lockdown announcem
111、ent in mid-March 2020,demand on all networks fell rapidly,but the scale and timing of the reduction was different for each mode.London Underground saw the biggest and quickest drop in demand,which at the lowest point,in the days following the lockdown announcement,reached a maximum of 97 per cent(ie
112、 only 3 per cent of normal patronage remained).Bus demand also fell sharply,with up to an 86 per cent drop at the lowest point.The fall was smallest and latest for motorised road traffic on the TLRN strategic road network,which at the lowest point only saw a maximum 65 per cent reduction with respec
113、t to 2019 at the London-wide level.While the overall scale of reduction relates to the general factors restricting mobility,the difference between the modes reflects a range of second-order factors;for example the widespread closure of many workplaces in central London particularly affecting rail de
114、mand or the greater utility of buses for local travel and for non-office-based workers who could not always work from home.A further factor for road traffic was the relative resilience of freight and servicing traffic,especially in terms of supporting essential activities and increased e-commerce.Th
115、e networks also showed different recovery profiles over the summer.Road traffic began to recover relatively quickly from mid-April.The pace of recovery then slowed down through July and August,flattening at just above 90 per cent of-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%Change from equivalent da
116、tes in 2019London UndergroundBusesTLRNOverview 20 Travel in London,report 13 normal.Bus and London Underground demand,however,remained very subdued through April and only began to recover slowly from late May with the tentative lifting of some lockdown restrictions.At the end of August,bus demand ha
117、d reached almost 60 per cent of its pre-pandemic baseline but London Underground patronage remained under 40 per cent.The development of a second wave of the pandemic over the autumn is reflected in a general flattening of the trajectory for all three modes.Key developments relating to travel demand
118、 during the pandemic Within these overall travel demand trends there are several clear features which reflect aspects of Londons geography,the emerging economic impacts of the pandemic,and features intrinsic to individual modes.Some of the more significant in terms of our recovery thinking are that:
119、Travel to and within central London reduced to very low levels and remains such reflecting an agglomerative economy based on office employment and discretionary leisure activities.This has led to comparatively low travel demand on radially-orientated rail networks while both office and leisure activ
120、ities remain suppressed.On the other hand,with enforced stays close to home for many,the value of local town centres and services has been rediscovered.With this comes opportunities for active travel,but in the context of many other challenges.Car travel has been more resilient in terms of the small
121、er initial comparative reduction in traffic,and faster and more complete recovery to normal levels over the summer,than public transport.The potential risk of a car-led recovery,with weekday traffic during autumn at near normal levels in inner and outer London,raises concerns about the ability of Lo
122、ndons limited road capacity to cope as activity returns,as well as the negative externalities(congestion,pollution,road danger)that would be contrary to the aims of the Mayors Transport Strategy.Pandemic conditions have,however,brought active travel to the fore and have created opportunities to furt
123、her embed walking and cycling into the daily fabric of London.The opportunity has been taken to support this transition through the Streetspace for London programme(see further below).Societal trends such as working from home and e-commerce and e-leisure that were evident before the pandemic,may hav
124、e become further embedded.Many people and businesses have adapted successfully to the new conditions although such opportunities are only available to some workers,and it is important to recognise that current conditions are far from ideal for many.Nevertheless,with what will ultimately be more than
125、 a year of disruption,it seems increasingly likely that there will be longer-term effects arising from these developments affecting travel demand.The pandemic and London Underground The general trend in London Underground demand since the beginning of the pandemic was one of a dramatic fall in deman
126、d from mid-March 2020 to a low point of 3 per cent of normal,followed by a recovery at a slower pace than other modes,reaching typically 35 per cent of normal during October,prior to the emergence of a second wave of coronavirus.Overview 21 Travel in London,report 13 Within this overall trend one fe
127、ature has been the re-balancing of demand across the days of the week(figure 10),with weekend travel being more resilient than weekdays a reflection of the faster return of discretionary travel over the summer compared to the continuing large-scale absence of weekday office-based commuter traffic.Fi
128、gure 10 London Underground recovery by day of week,2020 vs 2019.Source:TfL Data and Analytics.Another feature is the changed balance of London Underground travel across the hours of the day,again reflecting changed demand patterns.For example,in mid-October the morning peak happened around 15 minute
129、s earlier and was only about 30 per cent as busy as before the pandemic(and quieter than the evening peak,which was not the case before).This reflected the spreading of demand more evenly throughout the day,reflecting advice to travel at quieter times,and assisted the management of crowding under so
130、cial distancing protocols.Spatially,in terms of all TfL rail networks,the height of the spring lockdown period saw demand in central areas fall to between just 2 and 4 per cent of normal,while outer London saw demand fall to typically between 5 and 10 per cent of normal.During October 2020,activity
131、started to recover but this spatial disparity remained.Within the overall context of about 35 per cent of rail demand having returned,central and inner London station entries were typically around 30 per cent of normal,rising to around 50 per cent in outer areas(figure 11).0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Prop
132、ortion of 2019 demand for equivalent weekWeek commencingMonday to FridaySaturdaySundayOverview 22 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 11 Change in London Underground,London Overground and DLR weekday entries by local authority,week commencing 12 Oct 2020 vs autumn 2019 baseline.Cht 34%Wfd 19%Enf 47%Bx
133、b 26%Bar:Barking&Dagenham Brn:Barnet Brm:Bromley Brt:Brent Brw:Brentwood Bxb:Broxbourne Bxl:Bexley Cht:Chiltern Cmd:Camden Crd:Croydon Cty:City of London Elg:Ealing Enf:Enfield Epp:Epping Forest Grn:Greenwich Hck:Hackney Hdn:Hillingdon Hgy:Haringey Hms:Hammersmith&Fulham Hns:Hounslow Hrw:Harrow Hvg:
134、Havering Isl:Islington Kng:Kingston upon Thames Kns:Kensington&Chelsea Lam:Lambeth Lsh:Lewisham Mrt:Merton Nwm:Newham Rdb:Redbridge Rch:Richmond upon Thames Stn:Sutton Swr:Southwark Thr:Three Rivers Tow:Tower Hamlets Wfd:Watford Wns:Wandsworth Wst:City of Westminster Wth:Waltham Forest Thr 42%Hrw 46
135、%Brn 40%Hgy 48%Wth 51%Epp 42%Brw 49%Brt 50%Cmd 29%Isl 30%Hck 44%Rdb 46%Hvg 51%Hdn 36%Elg 45%Kns 36%Wst 28%Cty 22%Tow 39%Nwm 48%Bar 59%Hns 39%Hms 40%Wns 38%Lam 31%Swr 34%Lsh 35%Grn 37%Bxl n/a Rch 37%Kng n/a Mrt 41%Crd 28%Brm 31%Stn n/a 0%-20%20%-40%40%-60%Source:TfL Public Transport Service Planning.
136、Note:Boroughs in the Greater London Authority(GLA)are enclosed within purple borders.Please note that some do not have any London Underground,London Overground or DLR stations and therefore there is no data available for them.In terms of London Underground service provision,trains operated were over
137、 90 per cent of normal by late spring and throughout the summer,with demand during late summer being typically around 35 per cent of normal,albeit under social distancing protocols.The pandemic and Londons buses The general trend in bus demand since the beginning of the pandemic was of a sudden drop
138、 after lockdown,to a minimum of 14 per cent of normal,followed by a slow recovery,to approximately 55 per cent of normal by early October.In terms of the demand profile across the day,figure 12 shows that,at the height of the spring lockdown,the relative demand in the traditional morning and evening
139、 peaks was substantially reduced in relative terms.There was also a shift to an earlier morning peak,and a relative increase in demand during the middle part of the day.Overview 23 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 12 Relative daily bus demand profile,representative weeks in 2020.Source:TfL Data and
140、 Analytics.In terms of the spatial pattern of bus demand,figure 13 shows the proportion of bus demand in each borough for a representative week in late September(ie following the easing of lockdown restrictions and the return of some activity,but before the development of a second wave),compared to
141、a 2019 autumn baseline.Figure 13 Change in bus demand by borough,week commencing 28 Sep 2020 vs autumn 2019 baseline.Enf 61%Bar:Barking&Dagenham Brn:Barnet Brm:Bromley Brt:Brent Bxl:Bexley Cmd:Camden Crd:Croydon Cty:City of London Elg:Ealing Enf:Enfield Grn:Greenwich Hck:Hackney Hdn:Hillingdon Hgy:H
142、aringey Hms:Hammersmith&Fulham Hns:Hounslow Hrw:Harrow Hvg:Havering Isl:Islington Kng:Kingston upon Thames Kns:Kensington&Chelsea Lam:Lambeth Lsh:Lewisham Mrt:Merton Nwm:Newham Rdb:Redbridge Rch:Richmond upon Thames Stn:Sutton Swr:Southwark Tow:Tower Hamlets Wns:Wandsworth Wst:City of Westminster Wt
143、h:Waltham Forest Hrw 60%Brn 54%Hgy 45%Wth 62%Brt 61%Cmd 42%Isl 49%Hck 45%Rdb 62%Hvg 58%Hdn 60%Elg 56%Kns 48%Wst 42%Cty 40%Tow 51%Nwm 52%Bar 62%Hns 54%Hms 51%Wns 56%Lam 48%Swr 48%Lsh 61%Grn 60%Bxl 61%Rch 46%Kng 54%Mrt 57%Crd 59%Brm 56%Stn 45%0%-25%25%-50%50%-75%Source:TfL Public Transport Service Pla
144、nning.At that point in the pandemic the overall spatial pattern of bus use was similar to London Underground,with again a relatively greater shortfall in central and inner 0.000.020.040.060.080.100.12Proportion of total daily demandw/c 3 Feb 2020w/c 30 Mar 2020w/c 8 Jun 2020w/c 12 Oct 2020Overview 2
145、4 Travel in London,report 13 London boroughs.Overall,however,bus demand was around half of normal,and all central/inner boroughs saw bus demand at 40 per cent or higher compared to normal levels.Around this same time in September,bus travel to school by pupils was only 70 per cent of pre-pandemic le
146、vels.In terms of bus service provision,following reductions of up to 15 per cent during the spring lockdown,the pattern since late June has been for a full,and in some cases,enhanced,service to operate.Cycling and the pandemic During the pandemic,commuter cycling during the weekday peaks,previously
147、the dominant trip type,drastically reduced as many employees started to work from home.On the other hand,leisure cycling increased,particularly on weekends,as cycling was one of the few permitted exercise activities during lockdown,and this continued in the context of generally favourable weather ov
148、er the summer.Despite lower cycling in the initial lockdown period,reflecting dramatically lower overall mobility,the weekday and weekend trends broadly balanced each other,and from early summer total cycling,as recorded by a(non-representative)sample of permanent counters in central and inner Londo
149、n,was comfortably above the pre-pandemic baseline(figure 14).Figure 14 Change in cycle flow on the automatic cycle counters,2020 vs 2019.Source:TfL Traffic Data.Note:Week ending 6 October was affected by particularly bad weather.Walking and the pandemic Walking in 2019 was estimated to account for 2
150、5 per cent of all travel in London,on a trip basis.The impacts of the pandemic on walking in London will have varied.However,few datasets are available currently to allow this to be quantified.Our-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%Change from 2019(equivalent week)Week endingWeekdayWeekendTotalOverview 25
151、 Travel in London,report 13 central London pedestrian survey provides one source,although it is certainly not to be regarded as representative of London as a whole,since central London was uniquely affected by the pandemic.This survey did,however,graphically capture the dramatic effect of reduced ac
152、tivity in central London over the summer of 2020.Daytime pedestrians were down overall by 72 per cent compared to the equivalent quarter in 2019,with the beginnings of a pandemic effect also seen in quarter 4 2019/20.Initial data from the 2020/21 LTDS suggests an increase in walk mode shares by Lond
153、on residents over the August to October 2020 period.Streetspace for London:the programme TfL has developed the Streetspace for London programme to urgently reconsider the use of street space in the light of the challenges and opportunities presented by the pandemic.The programme will provide safe an
154、d appealing spaces to walk and cycle as an alternative to car use in the context of reduced capacity on the public transport network,as London recovers from the impacts of the pandemic.The aims of the programme are to enable Londoners to travel safely and to support economic recovery by:Making it ea
155、sier and safer for people to maintain social distancing Helping people walk and cycle safely and more often Avoiding a sharp increase in car use Keep Londons air as clean as possible TfL is introducing Streetspace for London schemes on Londons red routes as well as providing funding to boroughs to m
156、ake walking and cycling safer and easier on their roads.Interventions include temporary cycle routes to extend the strategic cycle network and footway widening to make additional space for people walking in town centres and at transport hubs.TfL is also working with boroughs to support the delivery
157、of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and School Streets in order to reduce traffic on residential streets and outside schools,enabling more people to walk and cycle safely as part of their daily routine.The Streetspace for London programme focuses on rapidly rolling out cycling infrastructure,bus priority,
158、neighbourhood improvements and lower traffic speeds,using an accelerated approach and temporary materials.Streetspace for London locations have been targeted using an evidence-led approach to ensure the greatest benefits for mode shift and safety,and currently include:Strategic movement schemes,incl
159、uding 89km of new or upgraded cycling infrastructure(66km of which was delivered by boroughs)and 86km of bus lanes upgraded to 24/7 lanes.Social distancing schemes,with 22,516m2 of TLRN highway reallocated to pedestrians,in addition to 181 borough-led schemes.88 funded Low Traffic Neighbourhoods(del
160、ivered by boroughs)focusing on reducing road danger,addressing health inequality and encouraging active travel.322 borough-led School Streets schemes to reduce road danger,promote active travel and reduce pollution exposure.6 new Cycle Hire stations.The Streetspace for London programme targets a ran
161、ge of benefits,including:Overview 26 Travel in London,report 13 Restored confidence in public transport,by providing sufficient space for social distancing for those who need to travel most,such as key workers and those who are unable to travel by alternative modes,for example those with reduced mob
162、ility.Economic benefits from reduced congestion as well as supporting recovery of local high streets and town centres by enabling Londoners to access local shops safely by walking and cycling.Improved health and wellbeing,by enabling all Londoners to achieve the 20 minutes of walking or cycling each
163、 day recommended for good health and wellbeing as well as reducing exposure to air pollution and road danger.Streetspace for London:initial impacts The programme has been developed and deployed rapidly,but there are positive indications of initial impacts.We have used TfLs Heathy Streets Mystery Sho
164、pper survey,described in previous Travel in London reports,to objectively assess the performance of treated streets.The results(figure 15),show consistent improvements across the range of healthy streets indicators that have been formulated to underpin the Mayors street improvement plans.Figure 15 H
165、ealthy Streets Mystery Shopper survey indicator scores,Streetspace for London sites completed to date(Aug-Oct 2020)vs sites in core TLRN sample(Jun-Sep 2020).Source:TfL City Planning.Results from a pilot survey,conducted in the Railton Road Low Traffic Neighbourhood in Lambeth,implemented in July 20
166、20,suggest encouraging changes in the travel behaviour of residents,compared to the wider population.00708090100People feelsafePeople feelrelaxedEasy tocrossNot toonoisyShade andshelterPedestriansfrom allwalks oflifeThings tosee and doPlaces tostop andrestPeoplechoose towalk,cycleand usep
167、ublictransportScore(out of 100)TLRN Streetspace for London sitesTLRN core sample sitesOverview 27 Travel in London,report 13 TfL is undertaking further comprehensive monitoring of the impacts of the Streetspace for London changes across London,to be reported in due course.The pandemic and road traff
168、ic Motorised road traffic fell rapidly from mid-March 2020,as businesses and individuals adapted to the pandemic.At the lowest levels,in the week following the lockdown announcement,TLRN road traffic vehicle kilometres fell to around 50 per cent of pre-pandemic levels on weekdays and 35 per cent on
169、weekends.From mid-April traffic began to recover at a rate of around 5 percentage points per week until June,when recovery began to level off at around 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels on weekdays and 85 per cent on weekends.However,as figure 16 shows,recovery has not been the same across London.A
170、t the end of September,weekly traffic volumes in central London were 78 per cent of pre-pandemic levels,compared to 90 per cent in inner London and 92 per cent in outer London.Note in the figure that traffic had already fallen in central London relative to early 2019 prior to the pandemic as an impa
171、ct of the introduction of the ULEZ in spring 2019.Figure 16 Change in weekly motorised traffic volumes by area,2020 vs 2019.Source:TfL Surface Transport.Weekly goods vehicle volumes fell the least compared to all motorised modes,with volumes compared to 2019 falling 51 per cent for LGVs and 47 per c
172、ent for HGVs in the week following the lockdown announcement.From mid-April goods vehicle activity recovered relatively quickly,with LGV traffic recovering more quickly than HGVs,likely due to a growth in online shopping while construction activity remained subdued.Recovery began to level off at the
173、 end of June at around 18 per cent below pre-pandemic levels for LGVs and 27 per cent below pre-pandemic levels for HGVs.In mid-August volumes for both HGVs and LGVs began-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%Change from equivalent dates in 2019Week commencingCentral LondonInner LondonOuter LondonLockdow
174、nbegins(23-Mar),road charges removedCongestion Charge increase and extended operational hours(22-Jun)Reinstatement of road charges(w/c 18-May)Overview 28 Travel in London,report 13 to decline.At the end of September HGV and LGV volumes were,respectively,23 and 20 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.A
175、cross London,the falls in road traffic seen in early spring were comparatively less than for public transport,and the rate of recovery subsequently has been much faster weekday volumes returning to near normal in inner and outer London.While explicable in terms of the changes to peoples daily activi
176、ties and relative risk perception,this relatively rapid recovery,given the restrictions still in place in autumn 2020,raises concerns about the ability of Londons roads,and wider urban environment,to accommodate any overall increases in road traffic that may arise as activity returns.Temporary chang
177、es to the Congestion Charge scheme Recovery of traffic in central London has been slower than in other areas,in part reflecting changes to activity patterns,but also influenced by the reinstatement of the Congestion Charge on 18 May 2020,following temporary suspension,and the temporary increase in c
178、harge level and extension of charging hours on 22 June.Figure 17 Daily unique CCZ car entries by day of the week and extended charging hours,Mar-Sep 2020 vs Jan-Feb 2020.Source:TfL Surface Transport.The recovery of traffic in central London should be viewed in the context of wider travel behaviour p
179、atterns as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.However,the data suggests that the temporary charge increase and extension is having the expected effects on demand.Overall,weekly traffic volumes(all motorised modes)fell by around 6 per cent following the reinstatement of the charge and also fell by
180、3 per cent following the temporary changes on 22 June.In line with expectations,weekly car entries to the Congestion Charge zone(CCZ)fell by 11 per 020406080100120140Index:Jan/Feb 2020=100Week commencingWeekday(07:00-18:00)Weekday(18:00-22:00)Saturday(07:00-22:00)Sunday(07:00-22:00)Lockdown begins(2
181、3-Mar),roadcharges removedReinstatement of road charges(w/c 18-May)Congestion Charge increase and extended operational hours(22-Jun)Overview 29 Travel in London,report 13 cent following the temporary changes introduced on the 22 June.As shown in figure 17,traffic during pre-pandemic charging hours r
182、educed by about 5 per cent.Car entries fell by 30 per cent during weekday evenings,and 27 per cent during the newly charged hours at the weekend.Following the easing of restrictions over summer,traffic has steadily increased.However,without the temporary changes in place it is likely that this incre
183、ase would have been greater.Traffic in the evenings and weekends,not previously liable for the charge,remains noticeably lower than typical 2019 values.The pandemic and mode shares Unsurprisingly,estimates of mode shares during the pandemic reflect the short-term changes to travel demand across the
184、modes.During lockdown in spring,we estimate the active,efficient and sustainable mode share in quarter 1 to have been 54.6 per cent.Over summer,as activity started to return,this increased slightly to 54.9 per cent(figure 18).All of these,importantly,in the context of a smaller overall travel demand
185、 pie and seasonal variations,but nevertheless consistently short of the 63.2 per cent which was seen during 2019.Figure 18 Estimated mode shares,2020 vs 2019.Source:TfL City Planning.Note:The total amount of travel in London to which these shares apply varies between periods in 2020 but is always su
186、bstantially smaller than in 2019.The pandemic and air quality The pandemic saw changes to travel and other polluting activity across London,and this in turn reduced emissions and improved air quality,on top of the benefits delivered by ULEZ(above).Nitrogen dioxide(NO2)concentrations at some of Londo
187、ns busiest roads reduced by around a half during March and April 2020 when lockdown measures were in full effect.However,this was a temporary 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019Q1(Jan-Mar)2020Q2(Apr-Jun)2020Q3(Jul-Sep)2020Mode shareWalk/cyclePublic transportPrivate transportOverview 30 Travel in L
188、ondon,report 13 effect and,as road traffic has returned(estimated at above 90 per cent of normal levels in late summer),NO2 concentrations are returning towards levels that might otherwise be expected.However,it should be recognised that NO2 concentrations were on a steep downwards trajectory irresp
189、ective of the pandemic,reflecting the initiatives described earlier in this report,and this is seen most clearly in central London,where concentrations remained about 40 per cent lower at roadside sites than in early autumn 2019.The pattern for other pollutants was,however,complicated by seasonal an
190、d other factors this year,which is to be expected,leading to several episodes of elevated particulate matter(PM10)and ozone(O3)over summer,despite reduced activity.This highlights that poor air quality is not just the result of traffic pollution and further action is required on other sources.Road d
191、anger and the pandemic The pandemic has seen changes to the use and configuration of Londons streets,and these changes have affected and continue to affect both the absolute number of casualties from road traffic collisions and the relative risk profile of road users.The short-term picture over spri
192、ng/summer 2020 was that,while the absolute number of casualties reduced,following reduced overall travel demand,travel on streets in London in practice became riskier.Figure 19 Relationship between casualties and journeys in London over the pandemic period.Mar-Oct 2020.Source:TfL Safety,Health and E
193、nvironment.Note:These data are provisional.Collision records subject to change and are amended based on revised collision details and further investigation.This review currently occurs circa 4 months in arrears and typically 25%of serious collisions are downgraded to slight through this process.Cons
194、equently,KSI data in the graphic after June 2020 in particular are subject to significant revision and therefore should be regarded as indictive only.The journey stages in the graph are estimated from proxy data and may not correspond with other data in this report.Figure 19 shows trends in terms of
195、 the absolute number of recorded casualties.The impact of the marked reduction in travel over spring/summer is clear,as is the 0204060800Index:1-7 Mar 2020=100Week commencingAll KSIsKSIs-walking and cyclingAll casualtiesCasualties-walking and cyclingWalking and cycling journey stagesSurfa
196、ce journey stagesLockdownannouncementOverview 31 Travel in London,report 13 more recent trend for casualties to return towards pre-pandemic levels,as traffic has returned.Relative risk,however,shows the opposite pattern,with a substantial increase in risk per journey over spring/summer casualty indi
197、ces being higher than the traffic index.The figure also shows a higher relative risk for those casualties killed or seriously injured,as distinct from all injuries(blue/red lines).The average severity of casualties from collisions also therefore increased over the spring/summer.Contributory factors
198、to this are thought to be an increase in average traffic speeds,as traffic levels and congestion fell,as well as changes to the road user population,including an increase in non-regular drivers.Coronavirus:behavioural perspectives on activity and travel An immediate challenge in terms of planning fo
199、r our contribution to Londons recovery is to understand the extent to which the impacts and exigencies of the pandemic are likely to have changed what individuals will need and choose to do.This includes changes in activities such as employment and travel,in the medium-term future,and how their own
200、personal evaluation of the pandemic and post-pandemic world,including those of businesses,is likely to affect the travel choices they make in the future.Perceptions of virus transmission risk and personal safety Although public transport demand in London has been dramatically reduced by the pandemic
201、,to a much greater degree than observed on Londons roads,this primarily reflects the fact that there has simply been less need to travel,particularly for those trips more usually made by public transport,rather than factors intrinsic to the transport networks themselves.Results from TfLs Customer Pu
202、lse survey(run weekly between May and September)show that Londoners level of concern about catching coronavirus varies considerably for different activities,with the greatest concern when travelling on public transport,despite stringent efforts to sanitise the networks and manage social distancing(f
203、igure 20).However,between 40 and 60 per cent of Londoners report similar concerns around the risk associated with a range of daily activities,these collectively having a compounding effect in terms of individual risk assessment of making a trip.Overview 32 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 20 Concer
204、n about catching coronavirus by activity,Customer Pulse,May-Sep 2020.Source:TfL Customer Insight,Strategy&Experience.Note:Sample size is 500 respondents per week.Survey results also show that agreement with the statement TfL is communicating well with Londoners during the coronavirus crisis increase
205、d from 64 per cent to 66 per cent between July and September and agreement with the statement TfL provides a reliable service everyday increased from 63 per cent to 66 per cent over the same time period.However,we can maximise our potential role in the recovery by understanding our customer prioriti
206、es and making public transport as fit as possible in the circumstances.Three clear themes emerge from research undertaken in September 2020 with customers:face coverings and enforcement,cleanliness and cleaning,and capacity control and social distancing.All three have been prioritised so far,and the
207、re is a need to continue to visibly deliver across each of these three themes to help improve the trust of customers during the remainder of the pandemic.Travel for work The national lockdown and advice to work from home had an immediate impact on travel to work.By May,1.07 million jobs had been fur
208、loughed(around 18 per cent of jobs in London)and 79 per cent of businesses stated that almost all employees were working from home,compared to 3 per cent of businesses before the pandemic.Reductions have been most apparent in central London where commuter demand fell earlier and faster than the rest
209、 of London and the GLA has estimated that the ongoing absence of office-based workers has led to a 1.9bn loss in expenditure from commuters to central London in 2020.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%04-May11-May18-May25-May01-Jun08-Jun15-Jun22-Jun29-Jun06-Jul13-Jul20-Jul27-Jul03-Aug10-Aug17-Aug24-Au
210、g31-Aug07-Sep14-SepPeriod 2Period 3Period 4Period 5Period 6Financial period and week commencingAt workOn public transportAt place of educationChildren escortEssential shoppingNon-essential shoppingIn pubs/restaurantsAt the gymAt a place of worshipOverview 33 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 21 show
211、s results from our adapted LTDS this year relating to the impact of coronavirus and travel restrictions on commuting.Figure 21 Proportion of work done or expected to be done from home,LTDS unweighted results,Aug-Oct 2020.Source:TfL City Planning.Note:The next three months is relative to when each re
212、spondent completed the survey between August and October.Before the pandemic,almost 60 per cent of London workers did not work from home at all and few(4 per cent)worked from home full-time.The picture changed entirely during the national lockdown in March and April 2020,where 20 per cent of workers
213、 stopped working altogether and the proportion who travelled to work dropped to just 11 per cent.Some 54 per cent of workers began to work from home full-time and a further 15 per cent worked from home part-time.Businesses are expecting a great deal of change to working practices in the future as a
214、result of the pandemic,particularly around working from home,flexible working and ongoing social distancing.A GLA survey in September found that almost three-quarters(72 per cent)of the workforce in central London office-based businesses are predicted to work from home for the next two years,compare
215、d to 50 per cent of workforce across all London businesses,and 40 per cent of central London office-based businesses think they will downsize their office accommodation in the next six months,although most plan to stay in central London.Many employees have a desire to work remotely in the long term,
216、at least part-time,although it must be recognised that this is not possible or ideal for some;results from LTDS show that almost three-quarters(72 per cent)of London workers expect to do some work from home in the next three months and 29 per cent of workers expect to work from home full-time.The po
217、tential longer-term persistence of remote working,social distancing on public transport and more general economic damage from coronavirus could have 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Before coronavirusDuring lockdown(Mar-Apr 2020)Now(Aug-Oct 2020)In the next threemonthsAllMore than halfLess than half
218、NoneNot workingDont knowOverview 34 Travel in London,report 13 significant impacts on the spatial distribution and overall demand for commuting trips in the future.The number of Londoners looking for work outside London was up 27 per cent on last year and those looking to buy properties outside of L
219、ondon was up by 42 per cent.The balance of residents and workers inside and outside London could therefore be quite different as a result of the pandemic,with implications for demand at terminal stations and the mode share of travel to work,with the possibility of a higher proportion of long-distanc
220、e commuters and a shift in demand away from central London destinations.Travel for shopping and leisure The closure of non-essential shops and leisure venues in March and advice to limit the frequency of shopping for essential items led to a significant fall in travel demand for discretionary activi
221、ties.Figure 22 shows findings from LTDS on the impact of the pandemic on Londoners shopping habits,showing how many days on an average week Londoners made,or anticipate making,a shopping trip.Some 68 per cent of Londoners shopped for food once a week or less during the lockdown in spring this compar
222、es to a third of people who shopped at this frequency before the pandemic.For non-food shopping,around three-quarters of Londoners shopped once a week or less before lockdown;during lockdown this rose to 91 per cent,likely due to the closure of non-essential retailers.Londoners anticipate continuing
223、 to shop less frequently than they did before the pandemic over the coming three months.Figure 22 Weekly shopping frequency at representative periods,LTDS unweighted results,Aug-Oct 2020.Source:TfL City Planning.Note:The next three months is relative to when each respondent completed the survey betw
224、een August and October.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%BeforecoronavirusDuring lockdown(Mar-Apr 2020)In the next threemonthsBeforecoronavirusDuring lockdown(Mar-Apr 2020)In the next threemonthsFood shoppingOther shopping5 or more days3 or 4 days2 days1 day0 daysOverview 35 Travel in London,report 1
225、3 During the lockdown in spring,online shopping rose as non-essential shops closed and people avoided spending time in public places to limit their exposure to the virus.In May,online shopping comprised a third of all retail sales,compared to 20 per cent in 2019.Even as shops reopened over summer,ho
226、me delivery volumes remained high;figures from Metapack show that in August home delivery volumes were 30 per cent higher than in 2019.A survey undertaken by the University of Leeds shows demand for online shopping is likely to continue,as around a third of Londoners said they would continue to do m
227、ore shopping online following the lockdown in spring.Initial findings from our adapted LTDS survey showed that over half of Londoners received more deliveries than usual on a typical week since August,in comparison to before the pandemic.The governments Eat Out To Help Out scheme provided a welcomed
228、 boost in seated diners to some struggling businesses.However,continuing concern about virus transmission risk,a significant reduction in tourism and changing travel patterns due to greater working from home has led to a slow recovery of evening travel demand,even before the introduction of the 22:0
229、0 curfew in September.This has also been impacted by social distancing rules,meaning it remains unviable for many leisure venues,such as theatres and clubs,to re-open.Active travel During the spring lockdown,as people were permitted to leave the house for daily exercise,many took the opportunity to
230、walk,cycle or run for leisure more frequently.Research undertaken by the University of Leeds showed that Londoners increased how often they walked for pleasure or exercise by 33 per cent and the amount they cycled for leisure by 25 per cent.However,much of the increase in exercise could have been un
231、dertaken by Londoners who were already active.Results from LTDS showed that although the proportion of Londoners exercising on five or more days a week increased during lockdown,the proportion who did not exercise at all on an average week also increased.TfLs cycle counts showed that weekend cycle f
232、lows were significantly higher in lockdown compared to the 2019 baseline,although weekday flows were lower.This reflects an increase in leisure cycling,which was one of the few permitted outdoor activities during lockdown.Results from LTDS also show that a greater proportion of London residents are
233、cycling more frequently since lockdown.Despite a decline in walking associated with commuting trips,31 per cent of Londoners say they are walking to places where they used to travel by a different mode and 57 per cent say they now go on more walks for exercise or walk for longer than they did before
234、.For the journey to work,figure 23 shows results from TfLs Customer Pulse survey,revealing that 30 per cent of respondents would consider cycling to work,and,of those,1 in 3 would consider cycling all the way.For walking,although 30 per cent would not consider walking any part of their journey,aroun
235、d half(54 per cent)would consider walking some of their journey and 15 per cent of respondents would consider walking all the way.Travel distance and mode choice The modes used by London residents during 2020 primarily reflect changes to activity patterns,A second factor relates to changes to travel
236、 distance,with mode shares reflecting a preponderance of more local trips(figure 24).Overview 36 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 23 Respondents who would consider walking or cycling as part of their journey to work when they return,n=498,Customer Pulse,Jun 2020.Source:TfL Customer Insight,Strategy
237、&Experience.Figure 24 Trip-based mode share,LTDS unweighted results,Aug-Oct 2020 vs 2019/20 financial year average.Source:TfL City Planning.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%No part of myjourneyA small part of myjourneyAbout half of myjourneyMost of myjourneyAll of my journeyWalkingCycling0%5%10%15%20%25%30
238、%35%40%45%50%Mode share2019/20August-October 2020Overview 37 Travel in London,report 13 Coronavirus recovery:an analytical framework for recovery planning There could be significant changes in travel behaviour in London going forward,and we have developed an analytical framework to support TfLs reco
239、very planning.The framework is structured around the different phases of Londons recovery from the pandemic and provides an analytical and interpretative evidence base to understand the main challenges and develop plans that are robust in the face of ongoing uncertainty.The analytical framework is b
240、ased around the following phases,shown by figure 25:A review of current evidence to understand lockdown and restart,and the current period of restrictions.A forecast to represent the Early Recovery a time when the virus is controlled sufficiently to allow restrictions to be relaxed enough for office
241、s to function in a near-normal state.A pair of forecasts to reflect the uncertainty of how a Steady State Recovery may develop once restrictions are fully lifted and all parts of the economy are open to full capacity.A set of five longer term scenarios for Londons future as we rebuild.Figure 25 Indi
242、cative phases and timelines of the analytical framework.Source:TfL City Planning.To understand the resulting travel impacts of these changes we have used TfLs strategic travel demand model,MoTiON,and supporting tools,to estimate how travel demand might change across the city for different purposes a
243、nd for different demographic groups.Coronavirus recovery:the Early Recovery phase Within the broad envelope of uncertainty,the Early Recovery phase is characterised by a return of commuting and leisure activities,although the risk of contracting coronavirus remains.During this time,it is likely that
244、 public transport demand will return to around 50-60 per cent of pre-lockdown levels,although this figure drops to 40-50 per cent for trips to central London.It will be essential to build peoples trust in returning to the public transport system and support active travel to avoid embedding a car-led
245、 recovery during this phase.Travel in London ReportFuture TiL ReportEarly RecoverySteady State Recovery2030 ScenariosEvidence BaseEstimates of travel demandReturn to BAUAgglomeration x3Remote revolutionLow carbon localismReturn to Nearly NormalEarly RecoveryChange to LondonRebuildRecoveryRestriction
246、sRestartLockdown2019 Pre-COVIDMonitoring dataNovember 2020Overview 38 Travel in London,report 13 During the Early Recovery phase there would be a rebalancing of activity towards suburban areas and smaller centres;a continuation of trends seen during lockdown and subsequent easing.This means that tra
247、vel demand recovery would be greater in outer London boroughs,and remains low in central London(figure 26).Figure 26 Change in travel demand by borough,Early Recovery phase vs 2016.Enf-27%Bar:Barking&Dagenham Brn:Barnet Brm:Bromley Brt:Brent Bxl:Bexley Cmd:Camden Crd:Croydon Cty:City of London Elg:E
248、aling Enf:Enfield Grn:Greenwich Hck:Hackney Hdn:Hillingdon Hgy:Haringey Hms:Hammersmith&Fulham Hns:Hounslow Hrw:Harrow Hvg:Havering Isl:Islington Kng:Kingston upon Thames Kns:Kensington&Chelsea Lam:Lambeth Lsh:Lewisham Mrt:Merton Nwm:Newham Rdb:Redbridge Rch:Richmond upon Thames Stn:Sutton Swr:South
249、wark Tow:Tower Hamlets Wns:Wandsworth Wst:City of Westminster Wth:Waltham Forest Hrw-28%Brn-27%Hgy-32%Wth-26%Brt-26%Cmd-43%Isl-44%Hck-37%Rdb-28%Hvg-32%Hdn-32%Elg-27%Kns-38%Wst-50%Cty-63%Tow-46%Nwm-34%Bar-25%Hns-33%Hms-39%Wns-31%Lam-36%Swr-39%Lsh-28%Grn-26%Bxl-28%Rch-29%Kng-38%Mrt-27%Crd-27%Brm-24%St
250、n-28%-70%-50%-50%-30%-30%-10%Source:TfL City Planning.Generally,the return of travel during the Early Recovery phase will be higher for those with access to cars,as some Londoners remain cautious about using public transport.While total trip making remains below pre-lockdown levels this may not lead
251、 to higher car use than before lockdown,but it does foreshadow a potential car-led recovery as overall mobility increases.Coronavirus recovery:the Steady State Recovery phase The Steady State Recovery phase represents a period where the threat of the virus diminishes,either due to the availability o
252、f a vaccine or a sustained reduction in cases,but travel behaviour adaptations made during the pandemic continue to significantly affect peoples travel choices.Trips to central London have still to return to pre-pandemic levels,with fewer weekday workers continuing to negatively affect central Londo
253、ns leisure and hospitality industry.People may still have a sense of needing enhanced personal space but this is now a preference rather than a requirement for health.While productivity in the economy is returning,employment levels are lagging and are still not back to pre-lockdown levels,disproport
254、ionately affecting already disadvantaged groups:part-time workers,low-income and younger-age groups.There remains uncertainty in how Londoners will choose to travel after the actual public health risk posed by coronavirus has diminished.To reflect this uncertainty two forecasts have been produced fo
255、r the Steady State Recovery phase:In the first Return to Nearly Normal scenario there has been a gradual return of employment activity in central London but still not at the same levels as experienced before lockdown.Things are slowly returning to business as usual Overview 39 Travel in London,repor
256、t 13 but people are still spending more time in their local areas than they did before the pandemic.Tourism is also likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels.In the second Change to London scenario the return to central London has not materialised due to continued and extensive working from home an
257、d a shift in attitudes to public transport.People are spending more time in their local areas and buses,pedestrians and cyclists compete for space alongside an increased number of car users in inner and outer London.Figure 27 illustrates the potential scale of these residual impacts on travel demand
258、.Figure 27 Change to London scenario:morning peak public transport trip destinations change vs 2021 base.Source:TfL City Planning.However,alongside the need to support recovery in central London,there are significant opportunities to increase active travel,given the potential for increased home work
259、ing longer-term and local service use.This is particularly the case in inner London,where our Streetspace for London schemes are being progressively delivered(see above).However,much potential also exists in outer London,as shown by figure 28.Overview 40 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 28 Propensi
260、ty to increase cycling,existing cycle network and TfL Streetspace for London schemes.Source:TfL City Planning.Coronavirus recovery:our longer-term scenarios for London Travel in London report 12 described how,before the pandemic,TfL was using scenario planning as a way of ensuring that our plans wer
261、e robust in the face of what in 2019 was perceived to be a climate of growing uncertainty.We have recently developed five scenarios for the future of travel in London following the pandemic,with a nominal time horizon of 2030.These five scenarios are now being used to inform our medium-and longer-te
262、rm plans,by reviewing emerging evidence as the pandemic progresses that might identify possible directions of travel more clearly as time progresses.Figure 29 summarises the five scenarios.While they represent a range of potential futures,all five could currently be considered to be plausible given
263、the extent of present uncertainty about the longer-term implications of the pandemic and in this way they bound the envelope of uncertainty within which our planning must take place.Overview 41 Travel in London,report 13 Figure 29 Five post-coronavirus scenarios for London.Source:TfL City Planning.A
264、gainst this backdrop,we continue to provide high levels of service and reliability to support Londons key workers and to facilitate a full resumption of normal activity in due course.Our networks are being made as safe as possible in terms of the virus transmission risk.Large-scale investment is bei
265、ng made,with more planned,in Londons streets to make them more attractive for walking and cycling over the long term,and the Elizabeth line will soon provide a step change in public transport connectivity to,from and within London.Overview 42 Travel in London,report 13 1.Introduction 43 Travel in Lo
266、ndon,report 13 1.Introduction 1.1 TfLs Travel in London reports Travel in London is TfLs annual publication that examines and summarises trends and developments relating to travel and transport in London.It provides an authoritative source of transport statistics as well as topical evidence-based an
267、alysis,and tracks trends and progress in relation to the transport and other related strategies of the Mayor.It also provides an interpretative commentary that looks across the immediate impacts of TfL,its delivery partners,and external influences and trends in shaping the contribution of transport
268、to the daily lives of Londoners and the economic and social vitality of the Capital.As such,it serves as a general resource for those planning and operating transport in London,as well as a more specific evidence base in relation to policy themes and challenges.1.2 Travel in London report 13 This th
269、irteenth edition of Travel in London provides a comprehensive and updated overview of key travel and related trends and their causes.It focuses on the technical aspects of travel,and complements other reports produced by TfL,for example our Annual Report,as well as reports on specific topics,such as
270、 Safety,Health and Environment.These can all be found on TfLs website01.The report this year is presented in two parts.Part 1 provides a summary of trends up to the end of 2019 or the end of the 2019/20 financial year.These are framed in terms of the aims of the Mayors Transport Strategy,which was p
271、ublished in March 201802.The strategy drew on a wide range of evidential material,summarised in accompanying documents and in previous Travel in London reports.It has a central aim of an 80 per cent mode share for active,efficient and sustainable modes by 2041,and three themes:Healthy Streets and he
272、althy people A good public transport experience New homes and jobs Part 2 looks at trends and developments during 2020 this year of course having been dramatically affected by the global coronavirus pandemic,which at the time of writing is still ongoing.The aim of this part of the report is to colla
273、te and summarise the main developments relating to travel in London over this period,so far as the available data allow,and to distil and interpret key evidence that will assist with longer-term recovery planning for London.The transport recovery from the pandemic will take place in the context of t
274、he prevailing background trends and the pandemic itself has posed a series of entirely new challenges and opportunities to the achievement of transport strategy goals.The first section of this report should therefore be read as essential background to the second.1.3 About Transport for London(TfL)Pa
275、rt of the Greater London Authority family led by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan,we are the integrated transport authority responsible for delivering the Mayors aims for transport.We have a key role in shaping what life is like in London,helping to realise the Mayors vision for a city for all Londoners.W
276、e are 1.Introduction 44 Travel in London,report 13 committed to creating a fairer,greener,healthier and more prosperous city.The Mayors Transport Strategy sets an aim for 80 per cent of all trips to be made on foot,by cycle or using public transport by 2041.To make this a reality,we prioritise healt
277、h,safety and the quality of peoples experience in everything we do.We manage the citys red route strategic roads and,through collaboration with the London boroughs,can help shape the character of all Londons streets.These are the places where Londoners travel,work,shop and socialise.Making them plac
278、es for people to walk,cycle and spend time will reduce car dependency and improve air quality,revitalise town centres,boost business and connect communities.We run most of Londons public transport services,including the London Underground,London Buses,the Docklands Light Railway,London Overground,Tf
279、L Rail,London Trams,London River Services,London Dial-a-Ride,Victoria Coach Station,Santander Cycles and the Emirates Air Line.The quality and accessibility of these services is fundamental to Londoners quality of life.By improving and expanding public transport,we can make peoples lives easier and
280、increase the appeal of sustainable travel over private car use.We are moving ahead with many of Londons most significant infrastructure projects,using transport to unlock growth.We are working with partners on major projects and are in the final phases of completing the Elizabeth line which,when it
281、opens,will add 10 per cent to Londons rail capacity.Supporting the delivery of high-density,mixed-use developments that are planned around active and sustainable travel will ensure that Londons growth is good growth.We also use our own land to provide thousands of new affordable homes and our own su
282、pply chain creates tens of thousands of jobs and apprenticeships across the country.We are committed to be an employer that is fully representative of the community we serve,where everyone can realise their potential.Our aim is to be a fully inclusive employer,valuing and celebrating the diversity o
283、f our workforce to improve services for all Londoners.We are constantly working to improve the city for everyone.This means freezing TfL fares so everyone can afford to use public transport,using data and technology to make services intuitive and easy to use,and doing all we can to make streets and
284、transport services accessible to all.We reinvest every penny of our income to continually improve transport networks for the people who use them every day.None of this would be possible without the support of boroughs,communities and other partners who we work with to improve our services.We all nee
285、d to pull together to deliver the Mayors Transport Strategy;by doing so we can create a better city as London grows.1.4 Further information For queries on the contents of this report,please contact TILEnquiriestfl.gov.uk.45 Travel in London,report 13 Part 1:Travel in London until the end of 2019/20
286、46 Travel in London,report 13 2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 47 Travel in London,report 13 2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 2.1 Introduction This chapter sets out the main trends in travel demand in London covering the period up to the end of the 2019 calendar year;or the 2019/20 fin
287、ancial year.For the purpose of the data in this chapter this was before the widespread disruption to travel and life in London more generally arising from the coronavirus pandemic.Developments in travel demand during the pandemic of 2020 are described in Part 2 of this report.The topics covered in t
288、his chapter are:Trends in Londons population,in terms of both residents and visitors Trends in the total amount of travel undertaken in London Top-level mode shares for travel in London Trends in travel among London residents 2.2 Londons population Introduction The number of people living in London
289、is the principal determinant of the amount of travel,albeit that daily longer-distance commuters and non-resident visitors,such as tourists,also contribute to the overall travel demand in London.Projected future trends in Londons population also underlie business cases for major schemes,usually pred
290、icated on future population growth.Previous Travel in London reports have explored the role of population change,alongside economic and behavioural change,in determining overall travel demand trends in London over recent years.Long-term trend in Londons resident population Following a period of decl
291、ine between 1939 and the late 1980s,Londons resident population grew rapidly,by over 1.3 million people,in the two decades up to 2011.More recently,the rate of growth has slowed,with particularly slow growth since 2016,increasing by just 0.6 per cent in the latest year,the slowest rate of growth sin
292、ce 2004(figure 2.1).Between 2005 and 2016,annual growth was typically between 1 and 2 per cent,but from 2017 has been below one per cent each year.Since 2016,Londons population has grown by just 2.2 per cent in total.This slowing growth trend is thought to be the principal factor underlying the gene
293、ral slowing of the rate of travel demand growth that has been seen in London over the past five years.Short-term trend in Londons resident population In 2019,Londons population grew by 0.6 per cent to 8.96 million.Between 2011 and 2015,Londons population is estimated to have increased by around 1.4
294、per cent per year,with growth in net international migration particularly driving the increase in population between 2013 and 2015(table 2.1).Between mid-2015 and mid-2016,however,the increase in population is estimated to have been slightly less,at around 1.2 per cent,corresponding to a decline in
295、net international migration.Growth in 2017 was estimated at just 0.6 per cent,a markedly slower rate than typical of previous years.In 2018,growth increased to 0.9 per cent,2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 48 Travel in London,report 13 although this was still below the longer-term trend.Growt
296、h in 2019 fell back to slightly below that seen in 2017,mostly driven by a decline in international net migration to London,which was at its lowest level since 2012.Despite the slowing growth in population it is worth noting that London remains the fastest-growing region in the UK.Figure 2.1 Long-te
297、rm trend in Londons resident population,1990-2019.Source:Office for National Statistics.Table 2.1 Components of change in Londons resident population,2013-2019.Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Population(millions)8.42 8.54 8.67 8.77 8.83 8.91 8.96 Natural change(thousands)82.9 82.4 78.4 81.3
298、78.5 73.1 70.5 Internal net migration(thousands)-51.5-64.4-72.8-88.2-101.6-99.2-89.5 International net migration(thousands)79.8 107.4 126.4 114.2 83.5 112.8 77.4 Source:Office for National Statistics.Components of population change Figure 2.2 shows the trend in the components affecting Londons popul
299、ation over the last few years.Between 2015 and 2017,the factors driving the slower growth in Londons population were the increases in domestic and international emigration,coupled with a decline in international immigration,with net migration in 2017 falling below zero.In 2019,international net migr
300、ation was the lowest since 2012,with an increase of 77,000.This is a decline of over 30 per cent compared with the 2018 figure of 113,000.London typically has a high international inflow and lower international outflow.This is partly because a significant number of the people that come to 6.57.07.58
301、.08.59.0Population(millions)2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 49 Travel in London,report 13 London as international migrants leave London for elsewhere in the UK,making them domestic out-migrants.However,the impacts of the UK leaving the European Union may have led to a greater flow of interna
302、tional migrants out of the country than in previous years.In recent years the level of net domestic migration has been at relatively high levels.However,in 2019 domestic net migration was 10 per cent lower than in the previous year at-89,000.As total migration levels almost balance each other out(th
303、e net flow of domestic and international migration was-12,000 in 2019),the main driver of population growth in London in 2019 was therefore natural change,with 70,000 more births than deaths.Figure 2.2 Natural and migratory change in London population,2012-2019.Source:Office for National Statistics.
304、Leisure visitors:domestic day visitors to London In 2019 there were an estimated 281 million domestic day visitors to London,a large decline of 12 per cent on the previous year(table 2.2).This is the third successive year that the number of domestic visits has declined,and is thought to reflect a co
305、mbination of factors,primarily the high costs associated with leisure visits in the context of recent pressures on disposable incomes.Significant disruption to the rail network is also thought to have contributed to the decline.Despite this,London had the greatest share of day visits for tourism and
306、 leisure among the English regions in 2019.-150-02002502000182019Number of people(thousands)International net migrationInternal net migrationNatural changeNet change2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 50 Travel in London,report 13 Table 2.2 Leisure domestic vi
307、sitors to London,2011-2019.Year Number of day visitors(millions)Change from previous year 2011 314-2012 362 15%2013 301-17%2014 315 5%2015 322 2%2016 337 5%2017 327-3%2018 319-2%2019 281-12%Source:Great Britain Day Visits Survey.International visitors to London The number of international visitors t
308、o London had increased each year since 2009,with an aggregate increase of 44 per cent over the period(figure 2.3).Following a decline in international visitor numbers in 2018,visitor numbers increased again in 2019,up by 3.0 per cent.More than half of all international visits to London were for holi
309、days.Figure 2.3 International visitors to London,2002-2019.Source:International Passenger Survey.The number of visits to London for business and study remained similar to 2017.The uncertainty over the UKs departure from the European Union had previously led to a decline in the number of business vis
310、its,and may also have affected 0246802224Number of people(millions)MiscellaneousStudyVisits to friends and relativesHolidayBusiness2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 51 Travel in London,report 13 international students decisions about whether to study in London.However,the latest dat
311、a suggests that in 2019 this decline may have stabilised,with holiday visits still higher than in any other year except 2017,and the value of Sterling remaining comparatively weak.International air travel Demand for air travel through Londons airports has increased steadily since 2012,reflecting rec
312、overy from the recession in the latter part of the last decade.A total of 181 million terminal passengers passed through Londons six main airports in 2019 up by almost 6 per cent on 2018.Heathrow airport accounted for 45 per cent of the total,with Gatwick accounting for 26 per cent.Luton and Southen
313、d saw the highest proportional increases in passengers(figure 2.4).Figure 2.4 Terminal passengers by London airport,2000-2019.Source:Civil Aviation Authority.2.3 Total travel in London The total amount of travel in London in 2019 increased by 0.7 per cent over 2018.The active,efficient and sustainab
314、le mode share increased by 0.2 percentage points to 63.2 per cent.Some 27.0 million trips were made on an average day(7-day week)in London in 2019,a 0.7 per cent increase on 2018.This is the highest level of growth since 2014,but lower than typical of the previous decade.The average number of trips
315、in 2019 was 19.3 per cent higher than in 2000,an average growth rate of 0.9 per cent per year.Over this period,Londons population grew by 23.8 per cent,an average growth of 1.1 per cent per year.0204060800180200Number of passengers(millions)SouthendLondon CityLutonStanstedGatwickHeathrow2
316、.Overall travel demand and mode shares 52 Travel in London,report 13 As in more recent years,and alongside relatively subdued growth in overall demand,there was relatively little change in mode share,with public transport mode share in 2019 remaining at 36 per cent,the same as in 2013.On an average
317、day(7-day week)in 2019,the share for active,efficient and sustainable modes(walking,cycling and public transport)was 63.2 per cent,an increase of 0.2 percentage points on 2018.2.4 Trips in London Essential background and terminology This section updates consolidated estimates of total travel in Lond
318、on on an average day.A trip is defined as a one-way movement from an origin to a destination to achieve a specific purpose,for example,to go from home to work.The component parts of trips are referred to as journey stages.Each trip may involve travel by one or more individual modes of transport,with
319、 the main mode of a trip being defined as the stage on which the longest distance is travelled.The Mayors Transport Strategy aim of an increase in active,efficient and sustainable mode share to 80 per cent by 2041 is based on trips,which are explored in detail in this section,with trip-based mode sh
320、ares discussed in sections 2.6 and 2.7.Total number of trips Since 2000,total trips in London have increased by 19.3 per cent overall,with particularly notable increases of 83.6 per cent in rail trips and 53.1 per cent in bus trips,with cycle trips(as main mode)increasing by 137.4 per cent.Included
321、in these totals are all trips with an origin,a destination,or both,in Greater London by London residents and by non-residents,including commuters and day visitors from outside London as well as overnight visitors and tourists.The number of trips made in London in 2019 averaged 27.0 million per day,a
322、n increase of 0.7 per cent over the previous year(table 2.3).Although the highest annual rate of growth since 2014,it occurs in the context of the general slowing down of travel demand growth in London in recent years,with a net increase in trips of just 1.5 per cent since 2014 compared with an esti
323、mated population increase of 4.9 per cent over the same period.This comparison illustrates an important trend observed across several different indicators and indeed in other cities elsewhere of a slowing in the rate of demand for travel(in terms of the trip rate for both residents and visitors);an
324、important factor bearing on recent demand trends for many individual modes.The London resident population in 2019 was 8.96 million,estimated to be 0.6 per cent higher than in 2018 and 23.8 per cent higher than in 2000.The larger daytime population of Greater London,including non-resident visitors,wa
325、s estimated at 10.2 million in 2019,0.7 per cent higher than the previous year.In 2019 there was a notable increase in National Rail trips of 3.2 per cent,with London Underground trips increasing by 2.6 per cent also a notably higher rate than in recent years.There was a decline of 0.6 per cent in b
326、us trips,which were down by 10.8 per cent from the high in 2014.Car driver trips increased by just 0.1 per cent.2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 53 Travel in London,report 13 Table 2.3 Estimated daily average number of trips(millions)in Greater London by main mode of travel,7-day week,2000-20
327、19.Year Rail/LO LU/DLR Bus/tram Taxi/PHV Car driver Car passenger Motor-cycle Cycle Walk All(2000)(1.7)(2.0)(2.4)(0.3)(6.8)(3.6)(0.2)(0.3)(5.5)(22.7)2010 2.3 2.1 4.0 0.3 6.1 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.1 25.1 2011 2.4 2.2 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.2 25.3 2012 2.6 2.4 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.3 25.8 2013 2.7 2.5
328、4.1 0.3 5.8 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.3 26.1 2014 2.8 2.6 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.7 0.2 0.6 6.4 26.6 2015 3.0 2.8 3.8 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.6 6.5 26.8 2016 3.0 2.8 3.7 0.4 5.8 3.6 0.2 0.6 6.6 26.9 2017 2.9 2.8 3.8 0.4 5.8 3.7 0.2 0.6 6.6 26.8 2018 3.0 2.8 3.7 0.4 5.8 3.6 0.2 0.7 6.7 26.9 2019 3.1 2.9 3.7 0.4 5.8 3.6 0.2 0.7
329、6.8 27.0 Percentage change up to 2019 from 2000 83.6 47.6 53.1 19.9-15.3 1.4 7.9 137.4 23.8 19.3 2010 36.3 38.4-8.6 16.0-5.7 2.0 11.3 33.0 11.2 7.6 2018 3.2 2.6-0.6-2.9 0.1 0.3 7.8-2.9 0.6 0.7 Source:TfL City Planning.Notes:Trips are complete one-way movements.They may include several modes and jour
330、ney stages but are classified by the mode that is typically used for the longest distance.Round trips are counted as two trips,an outward and an inward leg.Figure 2.5 Estimated daily average trips by main mode,7-day week,2000-2019.Source:TfL City Planning.051015202530Trips per day(millions)CycleWalk
331、Public transportPrivate transport2.Overall travel demand and mode shares 54 Travel in London,report 13 2.5 Journey stages in London Total number of journey stages Daily journey stages in London in 2019 were 31.6 million,up from 31.4 million in 2018 but remaining 0.3 per cent lower than the recent hi
332、gh reached in 2015.Table 2.4 shows the trend for total travel volumes and mode shares at the journey stage level.Notable from the table is the 19-year trend,showing a 24.6 per cent increase in total journey stages from 2000,with National Rail stages up by 91.0 per cent over the same period.Also nota
333、ble is the net 64.0 per cent increase in bus stages since 2000,despite a fall in bus patronage in more recent years.Annual average journey stages increased on rail-based modes,with increases in 2019 of 1.9 per cent on London Underground and 2.9 per cent on National Rail compared with the previous year.Bus journey stages decreased by 1.6 per cent and are now 9.5 per cent below the 2014 high.Car dri