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1、Travel in LondonReport 10Transport for London 2017 All rights reserved.Reproduction permitted for research,private study and internal circulation within an organisation.Extracts may be reproduced provided the source is acknowledged.Disclaimer This publication is intended to provide accurate informat
2、ion.However,Transport for London(TfL)and the authors accept no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions or for any damage or loss arising from use of the information provided.Overview.7 1.Introduction and contents.17 1.1 TfLs Travel in London reports.17 1.2 Travel in London report 10.
3、17 1.3 About Transport for London(TfL).17 1.4 Further information.18 Section 1:Overall travel demand and mode shares.19 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares.21 2.1 Introduction.21 2.2 Total travel in London.21 2.3 Trips in London.22 2.4 Journey stages in London.24 2.5 Overall trip rates
4、 in London.26 2.6 Mode shares in London.27 2.7 Active,efficient and sustainable mode shares.31 2.8 Focus on:Night time travel.37 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode.41 3.1 Introduction.41 3.2 Public transport:Overall trends.41 3.3 Public transport modes:Bus.43 3.4 Public transport modes:
5、Underground.47 3.5 Public transport modes:London Overground.49 3.6 Public transport modes:National Rail in London.50 3.7 Public transport modes:Docklands Light Railway.51 3.8 Public transport modes:London Trams.52 3.9 Public transport modes:Emirates Air Line.53 3.10 Public transport modes:River Serv
6、ices.54 3.11 Active travel:Overall trends.55 3.12 Active travel modes:Cycling.56 3.13 Active travel modes:Walking.61 3.14 General road traffic:Overall trends.64 3.15 Road traffic:Car.69 3.16 Road traffic:Taxi and Licensed Private Hire vehicles.71 3.17 Road Traffic:Freight.72 3.18 International trave
7、l.79 4.Understanding the drivers of travel demand in London.81 4.1 Introduction.81 4.2 The need to travel is it changing?.81 4.3 Updated forecasts of Londons population and employment growth.87 1 Travel in London,report 10 4.4 Wider factors affecting travel demand an update.95 Section 2:Healthy Stre
8、ets and healthy people.111 5.Physical activity and travel.113 5.1 Introduction.113 5.2 Physical activity and travel.113 5.3 Achievement of recommended daily physical activity through active travel.114 5.4 Who is currently active?.117 5.5 What is the potential for increasing the proportion of active
9、people?.125 6.The wider street environment.129 6.1 The Healthy Streets Approach.129 6.2 Healthy Streets Indicators.129 6.3 Measuring the healthiness and attractiveness of Londons streets.130 6.4 Attitudes to walking.137 6.5 Attitudes to cycling.143 6.6 Access to the cycle network.146 6.7 Road danger
10、.148 6.8 Congestion and journey time reliability for motorised traffic.153 6.9 Air quality emissions from road traffic.158 6.10 Air quality trends in ambient air quality.164 Section 3:A good public transport experience.171 7.Public transport:Provision and operational performance.173 7.1 Introduction
11、.173 7.2 Overall capacity provided by the public transport networks and recent demand trends.173 7.3 Service provision and operational performance:Bus.175 7.4 Service provision and operational performance:Underground.176 7.5 Service provision and Operational performance:Docklands Light Railway.178 7
12、.6 Service provision and Operational performance:London Trams.179 7.7 Service provision and Operational performance:National Rail in London.180 7.8 Crowding on public transport.182 8.Public transport:Customer experience.191 8.1 Introduction.191 8.2 Overall customer satisfaction with public transport
13、 in London.191 8.3 Public transport safety and security.194 8.4 Public transport fares and affordability.196 8.5 Equality and inclusion on the public transport networks.199 Section 4:New homes and jobs.211 2 Travel in London,report 10 9.Supporting Londons development.213 9.1 Introduction.213 9.2 Sup
14、porting new homes.213 9.3 Transport Connectivity PTALs.221 9.4 Transport connectivity access to jobs.223 10.Londons Opportunity Areas and central London.225 10.1 Introduction.225 10.2 Londons Opportunity Areas.225 10.3 Example of long-term travel behaviour tracking Isle of Dogs cordon survey.227 10.
15、4 Tracking the transport legacy of the London 2012 Games.229 10.5 Central London:Trends in morning peak travel to central London.232 Section 5:Monitoring progress towards MTS outcomes.239 11.Monitoring and evaluating progress towards Mayors Transport Strategy goals.241 11.1 Introduction.241 11.2 Evi
16、dence,appraisal,monitoring and evaluation.241 11.3 Outcomes and indicators.243 11.4 Aligning impacts monitoring and evaluation within TfL and across our delivery partners.246 3 Travel in London,report 10 4 Travel in London,report 10 Travel in London report 10 5 Travel in London,report 10 6 Travel in
17、 London,report 10 Overview Overview Travel in London report 10 Travel in London is TfLs annual publication that summarises trends and developments relating to travel and transport in London.Its principal function is to describe how travel in London is changing and provide an interpretative overview
18、of progress towards implementing the transport and other related strategies of the Mayor of London,to inform future policy development.It also provides an evidence and analysis base for the general use of stakeholders and policymakers whose responsibilities cover many different aspects of transport
19、and travel in London.This tenth Travel in London report reports on travel trends up to 2016,the year preceding the publication of Mayor Sadiq Khans new draft Transport Strategy(MTS),which was released for consultation in June 2017.This set out an ambitious programme to improve transport and the wide
20、r quality of life of Londoners over the next 25 years.The findings up to 2016 therefore provide an important backdrop to the strategy and the achievement of the new goals it sets.The strategy establishes the overarching goal of increasing the mode share for walking,cycling and public transport in Lo
21、ndon to 80 per cent of all trips by 2041,to enable the city to grow and address key environmental and health challenges.This and the related priorities below form an overall structure for this report:Achieving an active,efficient and sustainable mode share for travel in London Healthy Streets and he
22、althy people A good public transport experience Supporting new homes and jobs The draft MTS sets London on a new direction for sustainable,inclusive development.This report reveals the scale of the challenge we face in changing Londons travel trends in future.The evidence base for the draft Transpor
23、t Strategy,and more recent data presented in this report,demonstrates the importance of implementing the policies and proposals in the strategy to ensure the overall objectives of the draft MTS can be achieved,and to secure Londons long-term success.The context For much of the last decade London saw
24、 rapid population growth,which fed through to increased demand for travel.Usage of the key public transport networks grew,often at a more rapid rate,reflecting enhancements to the networks such as the Tube Upgrade programme and the progressive recovery from the recession,with increasing employment.M
25、eanwhile,road traffic consistently fell,reflecting increasing constraints on the road network and underlying an overall progressive and consistent change in mode share away from the private car and towards more attractive public transport,walking and cycling.Travel in London report 10 reflects a tim
26、e of particular change,however.With uncertainty in some parts of the economy,there is less-strong growth on public transport;while in parts of outer London,there have been some increases in road traffic volumes,reflecting the relative lack of public transport offering here.These 7 Travel in London,r
27、eport 10 Overview trends pre date the draft Transport Strategy,but,if sustained over the longer term,serve to intensify the need for the kind of policies outlined in the strategy.Interestingly,we have strong new evidence that overall person trip-rates have also been reducing,in line with new forms o
28、f shopping and use of leisure time,and perhaps also reflecting policies over time to reduce the need to travel,although Londons population is expected to continue to grow strongly in the future.With population continuing to grow,and with employment and international visitors to London at all-time hi
29、ghs,overall travel demand in 2016 was 1.3 per cent higher than in 2015.However,there were significant differences between the travel modes,between different parts of London,and in relation to previously established trends.Furthermore,these changes appear to be grounded in corresponding change in wid
30、er economic and societal trends affecting the known drivers of travel demand.So,in 2016:Overall demand for travel in London grew by 1.3 per cent,this largely reflecting population and employment growth(estimated at 1.3 and 1.8 per cent over the year respectively).Overall travel demand,in terms of th
31、e average number of trips per person per day(trip rate),among London residents only,however,fell to 2.22 trips,continuing the reduction previously observed and comparing to 2.64 trips per person per day in 2006/07.However,patronage of the bus network fell,although has since stabilised,and growth on
32、the Underground,hitherto typically between 5 and 9 per cent per year,was effectively flat at 1 per cent.A similar trend was seen on National Rail in London(up by 0.1 per cent year on year compared to,typically,growth of between 4 and 8 per cent in recent years).The long established trend for reducin
33、g volumes of motorised road traffic turned,with year-on-year growth in 2016 of 1.6 per cent in London(all traffic).In central London however traffic was down by 0.9 per cent,despite significant recent growth in the numbers of licensed private hire vehicles here;in inner London traffic was up by 0.9
34、per cent,and in outer London it was up by 1.9 per cent.This compares with a net reduction of 5.7 per cent(GLA level)since 2006.There was particularly strong growth in cycling up by 8.8 per cent at the journey stage level London-wide against the previous year.It is significant that many of the trends
35、 affecting overall travel demand have parallels at the national scale and,at this level,appear to be longer established.For example,person trip rates at the national scale have fallen by 8.4 per cent over the period 2006 to 2016.Road traffic volumes nationally grew by 2.2 per cent between 2015 and 2
36、016,an accelerating picture of growth with a net increase of 6.8 per cent between 2010 and 2016.Bus patronage nationally(outside London)fell by 8.7 per cent between 2008/09 and 2016/17.Growth on National Rail,hitherto typically between 3 and 8 per cent per year nationally,was just 0.8 per cent in th
37、e latest year.Local modal trends were observed in different parts of London:Inner London saw some relatively sharp year on year changes that may be indicative of longer-term trends and/or challenges.In 2016/17,for residents only,the private transport mode share decreased by 1.9 percentage points;the
38、 8 Travel in London,report 10 Overview public transport mode share also decreased by 2.4 percentage points.However,cycling was up by 0.3 percentage points and the walking mode share increased sharply,by 4.0 percentage points from 36.1 to 40.1 per cent in the latest year.In outer London there were so
39、me similar changes the walking mode share for residents increasing by 2.5 percentage points in the latest year to 27.4 per cent,and the private transport mode share decreasing by 2.2 percentage points,to 45.3 per cent.Meanwhile,the mode share of trips London-wide for licensed private hire vehicles i
40、ncreased from 0.6 per cent of all trips in 2009/10 to 1.2 per cent in 2016/17 an effective doubling of the mode share over this period,albeit from a very small base.Active,efficient and sustainable mode share Trends in travel over the past decade or so have had the effect of progressively increasing
41、 the share for active,efficient and sustainable modes public transport,walking and cycling from 52.0 per cent in 2000 to 62.1 per cent in 2016,as shown by the figure below.Trend in active,efficient and sustainable mode shares in London 2000-2016.All trips.Achieving the Mayors goal for an active,effi
42、cient and sustainable mode share of 80 per cent by 2041 requires an intensification of existing policies and the development of new ones,focused around Healthy Streets,to ensure that this trend continues in the context of new challenges.In 2016,for example,there was a net shift away from active,effi
43、cient and sustainable modes of 0.6 percentage points,which serves to highlight and intensify the pressures and challenges that the strategy seeks to address.The proportion of journeys made actively,efficiently and sustainably varies considerably across different parts of London,as is illustrated by
44、the figure below.00702000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Mode share(%)CycleWalkBus(including tram)Underground/DLRRail9 Travel in London,report 10 Overview Whilst there are many factors underlying this pattern,for example,the extent to which
45、streets and transport networks have been planned to prioritise cars over walking,cycling and public transport,it does demonstrate both the general upward trend in recent years,and also the considerable further scope for improvement.Of particular note is that residents of central and inner London are
46、 achieving or very close to achieving the 80 per cent ambition;however this does just relate to residents the ambition relates to all travellers and there is considerable variation at the borough-scale.The picture for outer London,which accounts for the majority of trips in London,is however differe
47、nt;typically just over 50 per cent of residents currently achieving the target.Trip-based active,efficient and sustainable mode share 2005/06-2016/17.Residents only.The Healthy Streets Approach The Healthy Streets Approach is the overarching framework of the draft Transport Strategy.It emphasises im
48、provement to a wide range of factors affecting quality of life in London including but far beyond traditional health matters with the overall goal of making life in London better.The Healthy Streets Approach is a key facilitator to help deliver the aims of the strategy.It will be applied to the stre
49、et environment and the wider street network to promote healthier,more efficient and more sustainable transport options.It will also be key to reducing car dependency by providing higher-quality public transport services,better-planned transport networks and the extension of public transport links to
50、 new areas.The Healthy Streets approach also applies to Londons future development,ensuring that regeneration and new developments are planned around walking and cycling for shorter trips,and cycling and public transport for longer ones.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Mode shareCentralInnerOuterGre
51、ater10 Travel in London,report 10 Overview These aims will contribute to an overall improvement in Londons quality of place,and in turn improving Londons offer and attractiveness as a place to live,work and do business vital considerations in an era of relative economic uncertainty.Healthy Streets a
52、nd healthy people Londons streets are fundamental to the character and operation of the city and the quality and design of the street network can have a huge impact on peoples quality of life.Attractive street environments encourage active travel and the Mayors ambition is that every Londoner walks
53、or cycles for twenty minutes every day(in terms of two sessions of at least 10 minutes).This is important because being active every day helps prevent a wide range of diseases.The easiest way for Londoners to keep active is to build walking or cycling into their daily travel,often connected to trips
54、 to and from public transport networks,and the Healthy Streets Approach provides the framework of policies and strategies that are needed to help Londoners achieve this.In 2016/17,the percentage of Londoners who achieved two ten-minute sessions of active travel per day was 31 per cent,demonstrating
55、the extent of change needed to meet the Mayors ambition.Walking and cycling Londoners propensity to walk or cycle,where these modes are a viable alternative for the person and trip in hand,is conditioned by their attitudes towards these modes.The factors underlying these attitudes are varied and com
56、plex,ranging from specific deterrents such as safety to more intangible cultural factors.Other factors,such as the quality of the street environment,also affect how likely people are to walk or cycle.In 2016,43 per cent of Londoners agreed with the proposition that London is a city for cycling,this
57、value reflecting an increase from(typically)around 40 per cent in 2013,and positively reflects the improvements to cycle facilities that were built in 2016.In 2016,74 per cent of Londoners also agreed that London is a city for walking,again reflecting an increase from around 71 per cent in 2013.It i
58、s to be expected that these evaluations will progressively improve as the Healthy Streets Approach is rolled out,and feed through to increased preferential use of these modes for trips to which they are suited.The best indicator of the popularity of walking and cycling is of course the number of tri
59、ps made.London-wide,in 2016,there was an average of 649,000 cycle trips made per day.This was 8.2 per cent higher than in 2015(8.8 per cent at the journey stage level)and appreciably higher than the average annual growth rate of 4.3 per cent in this measure over the preceding five years.This is a si
60、gnificant increase and potentially reflects the impact of high quality new cycling infrastructure delivered in central London in 2016.Historic growth in walking trips in London has closely reflected population growth.Given a stable overall propensity to walk per capita,population growth will result
61、in a corresponding growth in the number of walk trips made.So,over the period between 2010 and 2016,walking(at the trip level in London)was estimated to have grown by 9 per cent,primarily in response to a(very similar)population growth of 9 per cent over the period.The growth in overall walk trips i
62、n Greater London recorded between 2015 and 2016 was 1.3 per cent and this was in line with this 11 Travel in London,report 10 Overview historic trend;however there is still a lot of potential to increase walk trips in outer London by switching trips from car.Improving Londons cycle network infrastru
63、cture,as well as facilities and conditions for cycling more generally,is key to encouraging more people to cycle.Building on previous infrastructure,Londons combined Superhighway and Quietway network is now more than 100km long,and 10 per cent of Londoners live within 400m of at least one of these r
64、outes.More widely,26.7 per cent of Londoners live within 400 metres of the operational cycle network.Looking further ahead,the draft Transport Strategy sets the framework for a strategic cycling network that will achieve the Mayors aim of 70 per cent of Londoners living within 400m of a high-quality
65、,safe cycle route by 2041.Road traffic and emissions In 2016,general motorised traffic on Londons roads grew by 1.6 per cent,with this growth largely focused on outer London where there is still available road capacity and where the public transport offer is less comprehensive.This again highlights
66、the challenge ahead in achieving the Mayors target for the active,efficient and sustainable mode share.In the central London Congestion Charging zone however,motorised traffic volumes continued to fall,with a 4.1 per cent reduction overall in 2016/17 compared to the previous year.Traffic volumes in
67、the charging zone are now 22.4 per cent lower than in 2007/08,albeit with a notable increase in licensed private hire vehicles(PHVs),against a strong fall in the number of private(chargeable)cars.Central London has also been a particular focus for the improvement of active,efficient and sustainable
68、transport,with new cycling infrastructure and other urban realm improvements,and corresponding increases in cycling.Road traffic accounts for 28 per cent of Londons total emissions of Carbon Dioxide(CO2),50 per cent of Londons total emission of nitrogen oxides(NOx),and 50 per cent of Londons particu
69、late matter(PM10)emission.The trends affecting the different pollutants have varied over recent years.Emissions of CO2 are decreasing as vehicles become more fuel-efficient.However,in 2016 the increase in levels of road traffic partly offset this on-going reduction,with a decrease of 0.7 per cent in
70、 the year.This compared to a reduction of two per cent in the previous year.Emissions of NOx are the most pressing problem for Londons air quality,with ambient levels of Nitrogen Dioxide(NO2)continuing to exceed European Union limit values across much of central and inner London particularly close t
71、o busy roads.The Mayor is developing an ambitious programme to enable London to be brought into compliance with these limit values at the earliest possible opportunity,with an ultra-low emission zone(ULEZ)due to be brought into operation in central London from April 2019.In 2016,NOx emissions from r
72、oad transport fell by 8 per cent,following a 6.9 per cent reduction the previous year.Although London now complies with limit values for PM10,continued reductions to ambient concentrations will bring further significant health benefits.Achieving this is however difficult,given that about 88 per cent
73、 of Londons road traffic emission now arises from vehicle brake and tyre wear and resuspension,with only limited technological options for improvement currently available.In 2016,Londons road traffic PM10 emission was effectively unchanged;some small reductions arising 12 Travel in London,report 10
74、Overview from the natural turnover of the vehicle fleet were offset by increased emissions reflecting the overall increase in road traffic levels.In terms of ambient concentrations,NO2 concentrations are now consistently improving year on year,but remain above EU limit values across much of central
75、and inner London,particularly at the roadside.PM10 concentrations in London have reduced significantly over recent years;however from 2015 onwards the average trends suggest that PM10 concentrations in Inner London are increasing slightly.The reasons for these may be related to weather conditions bu
76、t also may in part be due to increases in the use of solid fuel burning in some areas.A good public transport experience Good public transport is fundamental to Londons overall vitality and the quality of life of residents and visitors.It is also a key facilitator to achieving many of the Mayors str
77、ategy outcomes.The quality of Londons public transport networks can be assessed through measures such as the amount of transport provided(service supply)and its connectivity,the operational reliability of those services,the accessibility of public transport to all people,the attitudes that people ha
78、ve towards public transport and,finally,by the use that is made of them,both absolutely in terms of patronage of the public transport modes,and relatively in terms of their overall mode share.Capacity In terms of capacity,the most basic measure is the annual number of person kilometres capacity prov
79、ided by the core public transport networks(based on planned maximum capacities of buses and trains multiplied by kilometres operated).In 2016/17,this was 116,685 million kilometres,a 2.3 per cent increase on the previous year and an overall 22 per cent increase from 2010/11.Since 2011/12,public tran
80、sport supply has grown at a faster rate than demand,particularly in the latest year where overall demand fell by 2.7 per cent and supply increased by 2.3 per cent.However,overall supply does not necessarily reflect demand patterns spatially,which are particularly focused on central London during the
81、 peak periods,or the extent of journey opportunities offered by the current network.Physical accessibility Legacy infrastructure continues to limit the extent to which all Londoners can use public transport.People with mobility needs require more time to complete journeys by public transport if only
82、 the step-free network can be used.In some cases,these journeys may not be possible.The Mayors ambition is to eliminate this differential as soon as possible.In 2016,across all possible public transport journey permutations,trips using only the step-free network(all buses and step-free stations)took
83、,on average,11 minutes longer than those that could make use of the full network a differential of 14 per cent.This indicator will now be tracked on a yearly basis to measure progress towards this outcome.Lack of accessibility however contributes to wider societal disadvantage,as reflected in the av
84、erage person trip rate for those with mobility needs being 12 per cent lower than the average for the whole population over the period 2014/15-2016/17.Typically,around 55 per cent of all people agree with the proposition that TfL is making it easier for disabled people to get around London,and in re
85、cent years 13 Travel in London,report 10 Overview this proportion has been slightly higher for disabled people.Yet around 20 per cent of disabled people and 15 per cent of all people disagree with this proposition.Reliability is a key factor affecting the relative attractiveness of public transport,
86、and a range of mode-specific measures are available to quantify this.In general,Londons public transport networks offer a high level of reliability,and it is important that this is maintained.However,reliability of both bus and Underground fell slightly in 2016,alongside several operational issues h
87、aving a similar impact on the reliability of National Rail in London.Safe and secure transport network Recent years have seen substantial reductions in the number of killed or seriously injured casualties(KSI)from road traffic collisions in London.TfL and the London boroughs have made significant pr
88、ogress by building new infrastructure that protects vulnerable road users and working with partners to implement new ideas and technologies.The current Mayor has adopted a Vision Zero,which sets the goal of reducing the number of people killed in,or by,buses in London to zero by 2030,and for all dea
89、ths and serious injuries from road collisions to be eliminated from Londons streets by 2041.In 2016,116 people were fatally injured,and 2,385 seriously injured.Whilst fatalities were 15 per cent down on 2015,the number of recorded serious injuries was 22 per cent higher than in 2015.The majority of
90、this increase occurred during the last four months of 2016 following the introduction of new reporting systems by the Metropolitan Police.Whilst these new figures represent an improvement on previous reporting,they should not be compared directly with estimates for previous years.Instead,the new fig
91、ures will form a baseline for the future monitoring of road collision casualties in London.In 2016,the terrible tram derailment near Sandilands tram stop in Croydon tragically resulted in 7 fatalities and 15 major injuries.Levels of recorded crime on TfLs transport system decreased in 2016/17 down b
92、y 6.1 per cent on 2015/16,while the rate of crime has decreased to 7.3 crimes per million passenger journeys,down from 7.8 in 2015/16.This is broadly in line with the trend of substantial reductions over previous years.Quality As with walking and cycling,peoples propensity to use public transport is
93、 partly conditioned by their attitude towards it.Overall customer satisfaction with the main public transport modes is relatively high,and has increased slowly over recent years.However,there are signs that this improving trend has plateaued a recognised feature with measures of this type once a cer
94、tain level has been reached.More insightful are measures that encapsulate the attitude of people towards TfL as a transport operator,although this offers a less-targeted response in terms of the TfL-operated public transport networks only.TfL has therefore developed a metric that measures the extent
95、 to which Londoners believes that TfL cares about its customers(including users of all modes).Measurements since 2012 show an increasing trend with,typically between 45 and 50 per cent of people agreeing with the proposition.However,typically between 15 and 20 per cent of people disagree,and around
96、35 per cent of people express a neutral view.14 Travel in London,report 10 Overview Fares The level of public transport fares is a key factor affecting the relative attractiveness of public transport as a mode,and the wider quality of life in London.The Mayor froze public transport fares in 2017,whi
97、ch will apply until 2020,and introduced the Hopper fare option on buses in September 2016.The extent to which Londoners agree with the proposition that TfL provides value for money measures wider factors;however the level of fares is considered to be the main driver behind this indicator.Typical lev
98、els of agreement with the proposition have been just less than 40 per cent in recent years with,typically,just less than 30 per cent disagreeing.Supporting new homes and jobs The draft Transport Strategy aims to provide for a future where,in 2041,London is expected to have 10.8 million residents,aro
99、und 30 per cent higher than in the 2011 Census,and 1 million more jobs.The transport networks need to grow to accommodate the additional demand resulting from this,but they are also vital tools to help shape the future of London in ways that optimise social and economic conditions,for example throug
100、h high-density,well connected developments that co-locate homes,jobs and services,thereby reducing the need to travel the principle of Good Growth.The transport networks can also be a powerful tool in helping to address Londons housing crisis,which is generally acknowledged to be a serious threat to
101、 the future growth and prosperity of the city.They can do this in two principal ways through encouraging the provision of housing on TfLs own land and through the wider facilitation of new housing development that transport connectivity improved connectivity in particular offers.The new London Plan
102、sets out how London will need at least 66,000 new homes every year between now and 2041 to meet the needs of its rapidly growing population.But with the city building less than half of this in recent years,we will need to use every tool available to increase the rate of delivery.The transport networ
103、k has a crucial role to play in this.We will ensure there is sufficient capacity on the rail,bus and tram networks,and will improve the environment for walking and cycling,to enable higher density housing and mixed use development at transport hubs.In addition,new public transport connections can ma
104、ke parts of London viable places to build homes for the first time.TfLs planned extension of the Overground to Barking Riverside will unlock the delivery of 11,000 new homes,which would otherwise not have been possible,whilst Crossrail(Elizabeth line)has already seen planning applications for over 5
105、5,000 new homes around its stations.Future major transport schemes,such as Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo Line extension,are also being planned to maximise the number of much needed new homes that they could support.15 Travel in London,report 10 Overview 16 Travel in London,report 10 1.Introduction an
106、d contents 1.Introduction and contents 1.1 TfLs Travel in London reports Travel in London is TfLs annual publication that examines and summarises trends and developments relating to travel and transport in London.It provides an authoritative source of transport statistics as well as topical evidence
107、-based analysis,and tracks trends and progress in relation to the transport and other related strategies of the Mayor.It also provides an interpretative commentary that looks across the immediate impacts of TfL and its delivery partners,as well as external influences and trends,in shaping the contri
108、bution of transport to the daily lives of Londoners and the economic and social vitality of the Capital.As such,it serves as a general resource for those planning and operating transport in London,as well as a more specific evidence base in relation to particular policy themes and challenges.1.2 Tra
109、vel in London report 10 This tenth edition of Travel in London provides a comprehensive and updated overview of key travel and related trends and their causes,to inform the on-going development of the transport and related strategies of the Mayor of London.Sadiq Khan released his draft Transport Str
110、ategy for public consultation in June 2017(see:https:/tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/how-we-work/planning-for-the-future/the-mayors-transport-strategy).This drew on a wide range of evidential material,summarised in accompanying documents and in previous Travel in London reports.It organised transpor
111、t priorities around four strategic policies:Active,efficient and sustainable mode share Healthy Streets and healthy people A good public transport experience New homes and jobs The content of this and subsequent reports is therefore broadly organised around these four headings.In line with the propo
112、sals in chapter 6 of the draft Transport Strategy,Travel in London reports will continue to be the primary means of tracking progress towards strategy goals through their role of bringing together available evidence from across the various monitoring programmes that are in place.Part of TfLs work in
113、 responding to the draft Transport Strategy is to review this existing monitoring and ensure that it is properly orientated towards strategic priorities.The material presented in this report,which can be thought of in terms of a baseline set of conditions for the future monitoring of the final strat
114、egy,reflects this developing position and,where appropriate,proposals for developing the monitoring in the future are set out alongside such historic data as are available.1.3 About Transport for London(TfL)Part of the Greater London Authority family led by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan,we are the inte
115、grated transport authority responsible for delivering the Mayors aims for transport.We have a key role in shaping what life is like in London,helping to realise the Mayors vision for a City for All Londoners.We are committed to creating a fairer,17 Travel in London,report 10 1.Introduction and conte
116、nts greener,healthier and more prosperous city,with 80 per cent of all trips being made on foot,by cycle or using public transport by 2041.We manage the citys red route strategic roads and,through collaboration with the London boroughs,can help shape the character of all Londons streets.These are th
117、e places where Londoners travel,work,shop and socialise.Making them places for people to walk,cycle and spend time will reduce car dependency and improve air quality,revitalise town centres,boost businesses and connect communities.We run most of Londons public transport services,including the London
118、 Underground,London Buses,the Docklands Light Railway,London Overground,TfL Rail,London Trams,London River Services,London Dial-a-Ride,Victoria Coach Station,Santander Cycles and the Emirates Air Line.The quality and accessibility of these services is fundamental to Londoners quality of life.By impr
119、oving and expanding public transport,we can make peoples lives easier and increase the appeal of active,efficient and sustainable travel over private car use.We are moving ahead with many of Londons most significant infrastructure projects,using transport to unlock growth.We are working with partner
120、s on major projects like Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo line extension that will deliver the new homes and jobs London and the UK need.We are in the final phases of completing the Elizabeth line which,when it opens,will add 10 per cent to Londons rail capacity.Supporting the delivery of high-density,m
121、ixed-use developments that are planned around active,efficient and sustainable travel will ensure that Londons growth is Good Growth.We also use our own land to provide thousands of new affordable homes and our own supply chain creates tens of thousands of jobs and apprenticeships across the country
122、.We are constantly working to improve the city for everyone.This means freezing fares so everyone can afford to use public transport,using data and technology to make services intuitive and easy to use,and doing all we can to make streets and transport services accessible to all.We reinvest every pe
123、nny of our income to continually improve transport networks for the people that use them every day.1.4 Further information For specific technical queries on the contents of this report,readers should contact TILenquiriestfl.gov.uk.18 Travel in London,report 10 Section 1:Overall travel demand and mod
124、e shares 19 Travel in London,report 10 20 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares 2.1 Introduction This chapter looks at overall travel demand trends in London,in terms of the overall number of trips made and the
125、mode shares for the different forms of transport.The factors underlying these trends are considered further in chapter 4 of this report.The volume of travel in London has grown substantially over the last two decades or so,more recently at a notably faster rate than previously anticipated,albeit his
126、torically matched by a consistent shift in mode share away from private car towards walking,cycling and public transport.These overall trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future,although Londons expected future rapid population growth will significantly intensify many transport cha
127、llenges.The draft Transport Strategy sets out the Mayors vision for 80 per cent of all trips in London to be made by active,efficient and sustainable modes(walking,cycling and public transport)by 2041.2.2 Total travel in London Previous Travel in London reports consolidated historic information on t
128、ravel trends over the last two decades or so.Principal features of these trends have been:Sustained growth in demand for travel,most directly reflecting population and employment growth.A substantial and sustained shift in mode share away from private car and towards walking,cycling and public trans
129、port,in parallel with increased supply and service quality for these modes.In 2016,however,whilst total travel demand continued to grow,the long-term pattern of a progressive shift away from the private car was interrupted.In 2016:27.1 million trips were made on an average day(*365)in London,a 1.3 p
130、er cent increase since 2015.The average number of trips in 2016 was 19.7 per cent higher than in 2000,an average growth rate of 1.1 per cent per year.Over this period,Londons population grew by 21.4 per cent.In contrast to recent years however,there was a 0.5 percentage point net shift in mode share
131、 towards the private car the first time that this has occurred since the 1990s.On an average day,the share for active,efficient and sustainable modes(walking,cycling and public transport)was 62.1 per cent;the share for private transport was 36.5 per cent.These compare to 62.6 per cent and 36.1 per c
132、ent respectively in 2015,and 52.0 per cent and 46.7 per cent respectively in 2000.Whilst the growth in total travel demand is a reflection of on-going population growth,the decrease in the latest year in active,efficient and sustainable modes is thought to reflect particular factors affecting the pu
133、blic transport networks,particularly the bus network,during 2016,coupled with a national-scale increase in car use,thought primarily to reflect increased employment.The Mayors vision of 80 per cent of trips in London being made by active,efficient and sustainable modes in 2041 requires,on average,a
134、yearly 0.7 percentage point shift towards public transport,walking and cycling,although it is recognised that 21 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares this is an idealised trajectory and that progress may vary from year to year.For comparison,the average annual
135、 percentage point shift towards active,efficient and sustainable modes between 2000 and 2016 was 0.6 per cent.2.3 Trips in London Essential background and terminology This section updates consolidated estimates of total travel in London on an average day.A trip is defined as a one-way movement from
136、an origin to a destination to achieve a specific purpose,for example,to go from home to work.Each trip may involve travel by one or more individual modes of transport.These component parts of trips are referred to as journey stages.Key concepts relating to trips,journey stages and main mode of trave
137、l were explained in detail in Travel in London report 5.The draft Mayors Transport Strategy vision of an increase in active,efficient and sustainable mode share to 80 per cent by 2041 is based on trips,which are explored in detail in this section,with trip mode shares discussed in section 2.6.Total
138、number of trips Over the period since 2000,total trips in London have increased by 19.7 per cent,with particularly notable increases of 77.4 per cent in rail trips and 55.4 per cent in bus trips,with cycle trips(as main mode)increasing by 135.6 per cent.The number of trips made in London in 2016 ave
139、raged 27.1 million per day,an increase of 1.3 per cent over the previous year(table 2.1).This is a larger increase to that observed for journey stages,and is in line with the increase in Londons population in 2016.Over the most recent year there were small increases in patronage on rail and Undergro
140、und,although there was a decline of 2.6 per cent in bus trips.Car driver and passenger trips increased by over 2 per cent,and car driver trips are now at their highest level since 2010.Included in these totals are all trips with an origin,a destination,or both,in Greater London by London residents a
141、nd by non-residents,including commuters and day visitors from outside London as well as overnight visitors and tourists.The London resident population in 2016 was 8.8 million,1.3 per cent higher than in 2015 and 21.4 per cent higher than in 2000.The larger daytime population of Greater London,includ
142、ing non-resident visitors,was estimated at 10.0 million in 2016,1.3 per cent higher than the previous year.22 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Table 2.1 Aggregate travel volumes in Greater London.Estimated daily average number of trips by main mode of trav
143、el,1996 to 2016.Seven-day week.Millions of trips Year Rail Under-ground/DLR Bus(including tram)Taxi/PHV Car driver Car passenger Motor cycle Cycle Walk All modes 1996 1.4 1.5 2.3 0.3 6.7 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.3 21.5 1997 1.5 1.6 2.3 0.3 6.7 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.3 21.8 1998 1.5 1.7 2.3 0.3 6.7 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.3 21.9
144、1999 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.3 6.9 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.4 22.4 2000 1.7 2.0 2.4 0.3 6.8 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.5 22.7 2001 1.7 1.9 2.6 0.3 6.8 3.6 0.2 0.3 5.5 22.9 2002 1.7 1.9 2.8 0.3 6.8 3.5 0.2 0.3 5.6 23.2 2003 1.8 1.9 3.2 0.3 6.7 3.5 0.2 0.3 5.6 23.4 2004 1.8 2.0 3.3 0.3 6.6 3.4 0.2 0.3 5.6 23.6 2005 1.8 1.9 3.2 0.3 6.5
145、 3.4 0.2 0.4 5.7 23.4 2006 1.9 2.0 3.1 0.3 6.4 3.5 0.2 0.4 5.7 23.6 2007 2.1 2.0 3.6 0.4 6.3 3.5 0.2 0.4 5.8 24.3 2008 2.2 2.1 3.8 0.3 6.1 3.5 0.2 0.5 5.9 24.6 2009 2.1 2.2 3.9 0.3 6.2 3.5 0.2 0.5 6.0 24.8 2010 2.3 2.1 4.0 0.3 6.1 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.1 25.1 2011 2.4 2.2 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.2 25.3 20
146、12 2.6 2.4 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.3 25.8 2013 2.7 2.5 4.1 0.3 5.8 3.6 0.2 0.5 6.3 26.1 2014 2.8 2.6 4.1 0.3 5.9 3.7 0.2 0.6 6.4 26.6 2015 3.0 2.8 3.8 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.2 0.6 6.5 26.8 2016 3.0 2.8 3.7 0.4 6.0 3.7 0.2 0.6 6.6 27.1 Percentage change 2015 to 2016 0.1 1.0-2.6 9.8 2.4 2.3 11.4 8.2 1.3 1.3
147、2000 to 2016 77.4 44.0 55.4 29.2-11.8 3.9 0.0 135.6 21.4 19.7 Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.1.Trips are complete one-way movements from one place to another.2.Trips may include use of several modes of transport and hence be made up of more than one journey stage.3.In tables 2.1 and 2.3
148、 trips are classified by the mode that is typically used for the longest distance within the trip.4.Round trips are counted as two trips,an outward and an inward leg.5.Values for rail include London Overground.23 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.1
149、 Trips in Greater London trend in total travel demand by principal mode.Estimated daily average number of trips by main mode of travel,1996 to 2016.Seven-day week.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.2.4 Journey stages in London Total number of journey stages Table 2.2 shows the trend for tot
150、al travel volumes and mode shares at the journey stage level.Notable from the table is the 16-year trend,showing a 25.3 per cent increase in total journey stages from 2000,with rail stages up by 85.0 per cent over the same period.Also notable is the 69.4 per cent increase in bus stages since 2000,de
151、spite the fall in more recent years.Daily journey stages in London in 2016 were 31.7 million,relatively unchanged from 2015 and up from 31.3 million in 2014.This is a 0.2 per cent increase in journey stages in the latest year.Annual growth in journey stages slowed on rail-based modes,with growth in
152、2016 of 0.5 per cent on London Underground and 2.5 per cent on DLR compared with the previous year.National Rail stages also increased at a slower rate in 2016,with growth of 0.7 per cent.Bus stages fell by 4.8 per cent,continuing the decline that started in 2015.Car driver stages increased by 1.6 p
153、er cent in 2016,following a slight decrease in the previous year.Cycle and walk stages both increased in 2016,by 8.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.05996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Trips per day(millions)Cycle
154、 trips Walk trips Private transport trips Public transport trips24 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Table 2.2 Aggregate travel volumes in Greater London.Estimated daily average number of journey stages by mode,1996 to 2016.Seven-day week.Millions of journe
155、y stages Year Rail Under-ground DLR Bus (incl.tram)Taxi/PHV Car driver Car passenger Motor cycle Cycle Walk All modes 1996 1.5 2.1 0.0 3.4 0.3 6.9 3.8 0.2 0.3 5.3 23.7 1997 1.6 2.2 0.1 3.5 0.3 6.9 3.8 0.2 0.3 5.3 24.1 1998 1.7 2.4 0.1 3.5 0.4 6.9 3.8 0.2 0.3 5.3 24.4 1999 1.8 2.5 0.1 3.5 0.4 7.1 3.8
156、 0.2 0.3 5.4 25.0 2000 1.8 2.6 0.1 3.7 0.4 7.0 3.8 0.2 0.3 5.5 25.3 2001 1.8 2.6 0.1 3.9 0.4 6.9 3.7 0.2 0.3 5.5 25.6 2002 1.9 2.6 0.1 4.2 0.4 6.9 3.7 0.2 0.3 5.6 25.9 2003 1.9 2.6 0.1 4.6 0.4 6.8 3.6 0.2 0.4 5.6 26.2 2004 2.0 2.7 0.1 5.0 0.4 6.7 3.6 0.2 0.4 5.6 26.6 2005 2.0 2.6 0.1 5.0 0.4 6.6 3.6
157、 0.2 0.4 5.7 26.7 2006 2.1 2.7 0.2 5.2 0.4 6.6 3.7 0.2 0.5 5.7 27.2 2007 2.3 2.9 0.2 5.9 0.4 6.4 3.7 0.2 0.5 5.8 28.3 2008 2.4 3.0 0.2 6.2 0.4 6.3 3.7 0.2 0.5 5.9 28.7 2009 2.3 2.9 0.2 6.3 0.4 6.3 3.7 0.2 0.5 6.0 28.9 2010 2.5 3.0 0.2 6.3 0.3 6.3 3.7 0.2 0.5 6.1 29.2 2011 2.7 3.2 0.2 6.4 0.4 6.1 3.8
158、 0.2 0.6 6.2 29.7 2012 2.9 3.3 0.3 6.4 0.4 6.0 3.8 0.2 0.6 6.3 30.2 2013 3.1 3.4 0.3 6.5 0.4 6.0 3.8 0.2 0.6 6.3 30.6 2014 3.2 3.5 0.3 6.7 0.4 6.1 3.9 0.2 0.6 6.4 31.3 2015 3.4 3.7 0.3 6.5 0.4 6.0 3.9 0.2 0.7 6.5 31.7 2016 3.4 3.7 0.3 6.2 0.4 6.1 3.9 0.2 0.7 6.6 31.7 Percentage change 2015 to 2016 0
159、.7 0.5 2.5-4.8 2.8 1.6 1.7 10.7 8.8 1.3 0.2 2000 to 2016 85.0 42.2 229.7 69.4 20.2-12.4 3.9 0.0 153.8 21.4 25.3 Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.1.A journey stage is a part of a trip made by a single mode of transport.2.Each rail interchange between train operating companies is a new jour
160、ney stage.3.Bus journey stages are counted by starting a new stage each time a new bus is boarded.4.Underground journey stages are counted by station entries;interchanges within stations are ignored.5.Walks are counted only when they form complete trips(ie walking all the way),not when they are part
161、 of trips using other modes of transport.6.Values for rail include London Overground.25 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.2 Aggregate travel volumes in Greater London.Estimated daily average number of journey stages,1996 to 2016.Seven-day week.Sour
162、ce:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.2.5 Overall trip rates in London Overall trip rates Trip rates(the average number of trips per person per day)have been broadly stable over the whole period covered by table 2.2,at around 2.7 to 2.8 trips per person per day.However,evidence is beginning to eme
163、rge,both in London and further afield,of a possible more recent trend towards slightly lower travel volumes on a per capita basis(see Chapter 4 of this report for further information on this topic).Trip rates are calculated for the average daily population,which makes allowance for overnight visitor
164、s and commuters from outside London making trips in the Capital.The historic relative stability of trip rates indicates that the increase in stages and trips in London is driven primarily by increases in population,both of London residents and visitors to the Capital,rather than individuals making m
165、ore trips.London resident trip rates Looking specifically at London residents,using the London Travel Demand Survey(LTDS),average trip rates in 2016/17 were 2.2 trips per person per day,lower than the average of 2.7 for all travellers in London.This difference is to be expected,given that the large
166、majority of non-resident day visitors are already(by definition)in the course of making at least one trip on the day in question to get to or from London.After rising from 2.4 trips per person per day in 2008/09 to 2.5 in 2013/14,trip rates for London residents have fallen by an average of 4.1 per c
167、ent per year for the 0551996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Journey stages per day(millions)CycleWalkPrivate transportPublic transport26 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares last th
168、ree years,this reduction primarily affecting discretionary trips,for example trips for shopping and leisure,and again having parallels at the national scale.Further details of travel demand trends affecting specific modes of transport are given in chapter 3 of this report.2.6 Mode shares in London I
169、ntroduction Mode shares reflect the choices that people make for travel in London.The Mayors aim for 2041 is for 80 per cent of trips in London to be made by active,efficient and sustainable modes(walking,cycling and public transport).This section looks at historic trends in mode share and recent ch
170、anges to this.The following section(2.7)focuses on active,efficient and sustainable modes and the scale of change required to meet the Mayors aim for 2041.Trip based mode shares Public transport accounted for 36.7 per cent of trips in 2016,up from 28.1 per cent in 2000.Over the most recent year,the
171、private transport mode share increased by 0.5 percentage points to 36.5 per cent.Despite this increase in private transport mode share,the mode share for public transport trips in London remains higher than for private transport continuing the situation first seen in 2013.This highlights the large s
172、hift in how people travel around London over recent decades,given that in 1993 the public transport mode share was less than half the private transport mode share.Cycle and walk mode shares remained constant in 2016,at 2 per cent and 24 per cent respectively,despite absolute increases in the use of
173、these modes.Over the longer term,the decrease of 11.0 percentage points between 2000 and 2016 in the private transport mode share in terms of journey stages is equivalent to a decrease of 10.1 percentage points in terms of trips.Similarly,the public transport mode share,which increased by 10.5 perce
174、ntage points in terms of journey stages,increased by 8.6 percentage points in terms of trips since 2000(note that public transport trips typically involve more than one stage).27 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Table 2.3 Trip-based mode shares public and
175、private transport by main mode.Percentage of trips Year Public transport Private transport Cycle Walk 1996 26%49%1%24%1997 26%48%1%24%1998 27%48%1%24%1999 27%48%1%24%2000 28%47%1%24%2001 28%46%1%24%2002 29%46%1%24%2003 30%44%1%24%2004 31%43%1%24%2005 31%43%2%25%2006 31%43%2%24%2007 32%43%2%23%2008 3
176、4%40%2%24%2009 34%40%2%24%2010 34%39%2%24%2011 36%38%2%24%2012 36%37%2%24%2013 37%37%2%24%2014 37%37%2%24%2015 37%36%2%24%2016 37%37%2%24%Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Figure 2.3 Modal shares of daily trips in London,2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Car36%Walk24%Bus(inc
177、luding tram)14%Rail11%Underground/DLR11%Cycle2%Taxi1%Motorcycle1%28 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Journey stage based mode shares In 2016,45 per cent of journey stages in London were made by public transport,compared with 32 per cent by private transpor
178、t.This reflects the historic position of a well-established trend of a net shift in London away from private motorised transport to the public transport modes.Since 2000 the public transport mode share has increased by 10.5 percentage points.In the latest year,however,the public transport mode share
179、 decreased by 0.9 percentage points while the private transport mode share increased by a corresponding 0.5 percentage points.Cycling and walking mode shares at the journey stage level remained at 2 and 21 per cent respectively.Table 2.4 Percentage shares of journey stages by type of transport,1996
180、to 2016.Percentage of journey stages Year Public transport Private transport Cycle Walk 1996 31%46%1%22%1997 32%45%1%22%1998 33%45%1%22%1999 33%44%1%22%2000 34%43%1%21%2001 35%43%1%22%2002 35%42%1%21%2003 37%41%1%21%2004 38%39%1%21%2005 38%39%2%21%2006 39%39%2%21%2007 41%37%2%20%2008 42%36%2%21%2009
181、 42%35%2%21%2010 43%35%2%21%2011 43%34%2%21%2012 44%33%2%21%2013 45%33%2%21%2014 45%32%2%21%2015 45%32%2%21%2016 45%32%2%21%Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Note:Mode shares are calculated from the consistent series for journey stages given in table 2.2.Totals may not add up to 100 per ce
182、nt due to rounding.Walks are counted only when they form complete trips(ie walking all the way),not when they are part of trips using other modes of transport.29 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.4 Modal shares of daily journey stages in London,201
183、6.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Note:Walks are counted only when they form complete trips(ie walking all the way),not when they are part of trips using other modes of transport.Trends in journey stages by mode Figure 2.5 shows trends in demand on selected travel modes since 2001.Public
184、 transport use has grown strongly over this period,with demand for all of the public transport modes growing faster than population,reflecting changing mode shares.Initially,growth was strongest on the bus network,with a 27.6 per cent increase in bus journey stages between 2001 and 2004.Following sl
185、ower growth of 8.1 per cent between 2008 and 2014,bus stages have fallen over the last two years,although still remain 60 per cent higher than in 2001.Growth in National Rail use(including London Overground)was initially slower than bus use until 2009.Since 2009,rail journey stages have increased by
186、 45.2 per cent,partly helped by the opening of TfLs Overground network,with rail stages now 83.4 per cent higher than in 2001.In contrast,Underground passenger growth closely followed population growth between 2001 and 2006,although use has started to grow at a faster rate in recent years,reflecting
187、 completion of upgrades to several lines,which has added extra capacity to the network.Car driver stages in 2016 were 11.7 per cent below the 2001 level.Growth has been highest in cycle stages,which have grown by 127.5 per cent since 2001,and by 24.3 per cent since 2013.Car32%Walk21%Bus(including tr
188、am)20%Underground12%Rail11%Cycle2%Taxi1%DLR1%Motorcycle1%30 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.5 Growth in journey stages on selected modes,2001 to 2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.2.7 Active,efficient and sustainable mode shares Act
189、ive,efficient and sustainable modes are defined in the draft MTS as walking,cycling and public transport.For this purpose,public transport does not include trips by licensed taxi and private hire.The active,efficient and sustainable mode share is calculated on the basis of trips,by all people(includ
190、ing residents and visitors)travelling in London,on an average(*365)day.To be included,trips must have at least one end in the Greater London area.Trips are assigned to a main mode according to the stage of the trip on which the longest distance was undertaken(an established convention).Historic tren
191、d trip-based mode share Looking firstly at the historic trend,figure 2.6 shows the trend for the proportion of all trips in London made by active,efficient and sustainable modes.There has been a continuous year-on-year increase in the active,efficient and sustainable mode share since 2000,averaging
192、0.7 percentage points per year.In 2016 however,the active,efficient and sustainable mode share decreased for the first time,by 0.6 percentage points,to 62.1 per cent.This is thought to reflect the wider set of circumstances affecting travel demand and mode choice that are discussed in Chapter 4 of t
193、his report.80002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Index:2001=100 Rail Underground Bus Car driver PopulationCycle31 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.6 Proportion of all trips in Lond
194、on made using active,efficient and sustainable modes 2000-2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Table 2.5 Percentage of trips and journey stages in London made by active,efficient and sustainable modes recent trend.Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percentage of trips made by active
195、,efficient and sustainable modes 59.6%60.7%61.2%61.9%62.2%62.6%62.1%Percentage of journey stages made by active,efficient and sustainable modes 64.0%64.9%65.4%66.0%66.4%66.8%66.3%Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Historic trend journey-stage-based mode share The trend in the active,efficie
196、nt and sustainable mode share of journey stages has been similar to that of trips,with a continuous year-on-year increase up to 2015,and a decline of 0.5 percentage points in the latest year.The stage-based measure of active,efficient and sustainable mode share is higher than the trip-based measure,
197、as public transport trips are more likely to be made up of multiple journey stages.In 2016,the active,efficient and sustainable mode share of journey stages stood at 66.3 per cent.Components of active,efficient and sustainable modes Figure 2.7 shows the historic trend in the headline indicator,the p
198、ercentage of trips made by active,efficient and sustainable modes,over the period since 2000.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Active,efficient and sustainable mode shareActive,efficient and sustainable mode share(trips)Acti
199、ve,efficient and sustainable mode share(stages)32 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares The chart shows that the proportion of trips made by sustainable public transport modes(excluding taxi/PHV)has increased over the period,from 27 per cent in 2000 to 35 per c
200、ent in 2016.The cycle mode share has doubled over the period,although from a much smaller base,from 1.2 per cent in 2000 to 2.4 per cent in 2016.In contrast,the mode share of walking trips has remained relatively stable at around 24 per cent,this reflecting a growth broadly in line with increasing p
201、opulation.Overall,the active,efficient and sustainable mode share has increased from 52.0 per cent in 2000 to 62.1 per cent in 2016.Figure 2.7 Components of active,efficient and sustainable modes 2000-2016.Trip level.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Additional comments The trip-based indi
202、cator for active,efficient and sustainable mode share is in accordance with the draft MTS.However,other measures of this are also possible,and can provide valuable additional context.In particular,LTDS provides a much richer source of data for London residents only,and many of the analyses of wider
203、travel trends considered elsewhere in this report are based on this,which will give different estimates to those described above.These differences should be borne in mind when interpreting the additional material below.Spatial variation in active,efficient and sustainable mode share Mode shares vary
204、 geographically.Typically,the highest active,efficient and sustainable mode shares characterise trips in central London.To examine these 00702000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Mode share(%)CycleWalkBus/tramUnderground/DLRRail33 Travel in Lo
205、ndon,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares features,it is necessary to use the LTDS survey,which includes travel by London residents only and provides a continuous dataset back to the 2005/06 financial year.Inner London(including central London)Among inner and central London re
206、sidents,there has been a sustained decline in private transport mode share,falling from 27 per cent in 2005/06 to 20 per cent in the latest year(figure 2.8).Public transport mode shares have remained between around 35 to 38 per cent,with a small decline in the latest year.Cycle mode share increased
207、from 2.5 per cent in 2005/06 to 3.9 per cent in 2016/17 and walk mode share has increased from 34.4 per cent to 40.1 per cent over the same period,with an indicated growth of 4 per cent in the latest year.Because LTDS is normalised to account for population growth,this reflects a genuine and substan
208、tial shift in mode share to walking over this period.In terms of the active,efficient and sustainable mode share,71.9 per cent of trips by central and inner London residents were made by active,efficient and sustainable modes in 2005/06,increasing to 77.7 per cent of trips in 2016/17,an increase of
209、5.9 percentage points over the period.Figure 2.8 Mode share of trips by inner London residents.LTDS survey,2005/062016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Outer London In outer London,where public transport coverage is less comprehensive,the trends have been different,with private transpo
210、rt mode share falling at a slower rate,from 50.4 per cent in 2005/06 to 45.3 per cent in 2016/17(figure 2.9).Public transport mode share increased from 19.8 per cent to 25.7 per cent over the same period.The cycling mode share among outer London residents is much lower than among inner London reside
211、nts and has increased at a slower rate,from 1.1 per cent in 00708090100Percentage mode sharePublicPrivateCycleWalkSustainable34 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares 2005/06 to 1.6 per cent in 2016/17.The walk mode share decreased from 28.7 per cent
212、in 2005/06 to 24.9 per cent in 2015/16,a contrasting trend to inner London,albeit with an increase in the latest year.In 2005/06,less than half(48.9 per cent)of trips by outer London residents were made by active,efficient and sustainable modes,and in 2016/17 this had increased to 53.7 per cent of t
213、rips.Figure 2.9 Mode share of trips by outer London residents,LTDS survey,2005/062016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Borough level patterns Figure 2.10 shows the trip-based active,efficient and sustainable mode share by borough of residence.This figure includes all trips undertaken b
214、y residents of each borough,irrespective of where the trips take place(although one end of the trip must be in the GLA area to be included).There are many structural reasons underlying these patterns but the considerable variation highlights both challenges and opportunities in respect of achieving
215、the active,efficient and sustainable mode share objective.In general,inner London residents have a higher share of trips made by active,efficient and sustainable modes,and this is to be expected given the denser land use and more comprehensive public transport network.Residents of the City of London
216、 have the highest overall active,efficient and sustainable mode share(94 per cent),but the smaller number of households in the City of London compared to other London boroughs should be taken into account and means that this estimate is based on a relatively small sample of households.Camden has the
217、 second highest active,efficient and sustainable mode share(85 per cent),in part due to the high walk mode share almost half(48 per cent)of trips made by Camden residents are walked.Residents of Hackney,Hammersmith&00708090100Percentage mode sharePublicPrivateCycleWalkSustainable35 Travel
218、 in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Fulham and Richmond upon Thames have notably high cycle mode shares,whereas residents of Haringey,Lambeth and Newham have the highest public transport mode shares.Outer London residents have lower overall active,efficient and sus
219、tainable mode shares.Residents of Brent have the highest active,efficient and sustainable mode share(64 per cent)of all of the outer London boroughs,due to a higher than average public transport mode share of 35 per cent.Residents of Waltham Forest also have a higher than average active,efficient an
220、d sustainable mode share for outer London,with the highest outer London walk mode share of 32 per cent.Richmond upon Thames residents have the highest outer London cycle mode share of 6 per cent,more than twice as high as any other outer London borough.Residents of Bexley and Hillingdon have the low
221、est active,efficient and sustainable mode share of 41 and 42 per cent respectively,followed by Havering and Bromley(45 per cent respectively).Particularly notable from the figure is the variation in the proportion of the mode share accounted for by cycling and(in particular)walking,with public trans
222、port mode shares being relatively more consistent between boroughs.Figure 2.10 Trip-based mode share for active,efficient and sustainable modes,by borough of residence,LTDS 3 year average,2014/15-2016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Indicative trajectory to meet active,efficient and s
223、ustainable mode share aim From a base of 2016,achieving the Mayors aim for 80 per cent of trips to be made by active,efficient and sustainable modes by 2041 would require the equivalent of an average 0.7 percentage point shift in mode share per year(18 percentage points overall),although it is recog
224、nised that the actual trajectory of change may differ.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%City of LondonCamdenHackneyWestminsterTower HamletsHammersmith&FulhamIslingtonHaringeySouthwarkLambethKensington&ChelseaNewhamWandsworthLewishamBrentWaltham ForestEalingRichmond upon ThamesMertonGreenwichHounslowB
225、arking&DagenhamBarnetKingston upon ThamesEnfieldCroydonHarrowRedbridgeSuttonBromleyHaveringHillingdonBexleyTrip-based mode shareCycleWalkPublic transport36 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares From the perspective of the draft MTS,the 2016 values,pre-dating pu
226、blication of the draft Transport Strategy,act as a baseline for tracking future progress,and slightly intensify the challenge of achievement for 2041.Person kilometres by mode(journey stage based,London residents only)Another way of looking at mode shares is the average number of kilometres per day
227、travelled per person.This indicator is only available for residents of Greater London(from the LTDS survey).The values in table 2.6 are expressed as a daily average value(*365),for all trips with at least one end in Greater London.The indicator relates to personal travel by residents aged 5 or over.
228、It excludes travel where this is a direct corollary of employment(eg bus driver)but includes personal travel made for business purposes.It also excludes freight travel,which is not in scope for the LTDS survey.Of particular interest from the table are the average walk and cycle distances around one-
229、fifth of a kilometre and one kilometre,on average,per person per day.Table 2.6 Person kilometres(average per day)travelled by residents of Greater London.Year 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 National Rail/Overground 2.54 2.58 3.07 2.63 3.01 2.71 2.84 Underground/DLR 2.12 2.07
230、 2.17 2.13 2.29 2.29 2.21 Bus/tram 1.79 1.89 1.67 1.95 1.67 1.59 1.38 Taxi/other 0.20 0.22 0.27 0.17 0.25 0.27 0.23 Car driver 4.58 4.69 4.48 4.39 4.19 3.88 3.36 Car passenger 2.49 2.78 2.67 2.52 2.36 2.36 2.05 Cycle 0.18 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.23 0.21 Walk 0.99 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.94 1.09 Source:T
231、fL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.2.8 Focus on:Night time travel The night time economy is a key driver of economic and cultural regeneration and a magnet for domestic and international visitors.Recent research shows that the night time economy contributes 26.3bn to Londons annual GDP and supports
232、 1 in 8 jobs.This figure is expected to rise to 28.3bn by 2029.Transport plays a key role in ensuring both London residents and visitors to London can access the night time economy,with the opening of the Night Tube in August 2016,and the upcoming opening of the Night Overground from December 2017 s
233、ignificantly expanding the public transport offering during the night.This section uses data from LTDS to examine how travel in London at night by London residents differs from that during the day.Night time mode shares for residents The modes people use at night differ from those they use in the da
234、y.Walking makes up 23 per cent of all trips at night,compared with 33 per cent for the whole day,while Underground trips increase in proportion from 9 per cent to 13 per cent.The proportion of car trips at night is similar to during the day.Taxi(including licensed private hire)mode share increases s
235、ignificantly at night,from 1 per cent to 12 per cent-the same mode share as bus for this time.37 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.11 Comparative mode share of trips by time period,LTDS 2016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Figure 2.1
236、2 Purpose share of trips at night,LTDS 2016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Early amam PeakInter peakpm PeakEveningNightMode shareRailLU/DLRBusTaxi/otherCar driverCar passengerMotorcycleCycleWalk0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Night(22:00 to 03:59)Oth
237、er time periods(04:00 to 21:59)Purpose shareUsual workplaceOther work relatedEducationShopping and personal businessLeisureOther38 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Night time journey purpose for residents The reasons people travel at night differ from duri
238、ng the day(figure 2.12).The majority of trips made at night(64 per cent)are for leisure purposes.There are still a significant proportion of commute trips at night 17 per cent of all trips,compared with 18 per cent during the day.Night time journeys by gender,age and geography Women made up 50.2 per
239、 cent of Londons population in 2016,but 59 per cent of trips at night are by men,compared with 48 per cent during the day(figure 2.13).London residents who travel at night are younger on average than those who travel in the day,with 18 per cent of trips at night made by 17-24 year olds,compared with
240、 9 per cent during the day.Almost half of all trips at night are made by those aged 25-44(figure 2.14).Looking at basic geographical patterns,there are a higher proportion of trips to and from central London at night,with 19 per cent of trips at night between central and inner/outer London,compared
241、with 12 per cent during the day.Only 33 per cent of trips at night are wholly within outer London,compared with 43 per cent during the day(figure 2.15).Figure 2.13 Gender split of night trips,LTDS,2016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Night(22:00 to 03:
242、59)Other time periods(04:00 to 21:59)MaleFemale39 Travel in London,report 10 2.Overall trends in travel demand and mode shares Figure 2.14 Age split of night trips,LTDS 2016/17.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Figure 2.15 Origin and destination of night trips,LTDS 2016/17.Source:TfL City
243、Planning,Strategic Analysis.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Night(22:00 to 03:59)Other time periods(04:00 to 21:59)05-1617-2425-4445-5960-6465+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Night(22:00 to 03:59)Other time periods(04:00 to 21:59)Within Central LondonWithin Inner LondonBetween Central&Inner London
244、Within Outer LondonBetween Central&Outer LondonBetween Inner&Outer LondonBetween Greater London and rest of UK40 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode 3.1 Introduction Chapter 2 of this report looked at trends in ag
245、gregate travel demand and mode shares in London,and considered some of the factors underlying recent changing travel patterns.The overall picture since 2000 has been one of strong growth in Londons population and travel demand a pattern that is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.This g
246、rowth has been at a faster rate than previously envisaged,and has affected the main travel modes in different ways.This growth in demand has also been accompanied by improvements to the capacity of Londons transport networks and also improvements to the wider level and quality of service offered.The
247、 draft MTS sets out a future prospectus for each of the travel modes,with the overall aims of providing for Londons future growth and prosperity and encouraging a continued shift in mode share towards active,efficient and sustainable travel modes.Each of the travel modes has a role to play in achiev
248、ing this vision.This chapter looks specifically at trends in travel volumes(demand)affecting each of the principal travel modes.The focus is generally on the period since 2010,although longer-term trends are highlighted where the available data permit.Whilst forming a set of baseline conditions for
249、the future monitoring of progress towards the outcomes of the draft MTS,the position in 2016 differs in some important respects however from long-established trends.These instances are discussed in more detail under the relevant headings below,which consider firstly the public transport modes,second
250、ly the active modes of walking and cycling and,thirdly,demand trends affecting road traffic in London.Behavioural aspects relating to the different modes of travel,as opposed to overall volumes,are considered elsewhere in this report and have also been explored extensively in previous Travel in Lond
251、on reports.3.2 Public transport:Overall trends Historic trends Considering the period 2000 to 2016,the total demand for public transport in London measured in terms of journey stages grew by 64 per cent.In the longer-term historic context this level of growth was unprecedented.TfLs projections of fu
252、ture travel demand suggest that growth is likely to continue at a similar rate for the foreseeable future.However,the growth has been focused on particular modes at different points in time.Figure 3.1 shows the demand growth trend for each of the principal public transport modes over this period.The
253、 figure is in terms of the absolute number of journey stages per year,by all travellers in London,and therefore it also illustrates the differences in scale in terms of the total volume of travel across these modes.41 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure
254、3.1 Trend in journey stages on selected modes,2000 to 2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.All modes have seen a growth in demand between 2000 and 2016,with the greatest growth on rail(85.0 per cent over the period),followed by bus(69.4 per cent)and Underground/DLR(49.0 per cent).Growth
255、in bus demand was particularly strong between 2000 and 2008,corresponding to a period of particular investment in the bus network,and,after a period of levelling off,has declined by 6.6 per cent since 2014.Despite the slower growth rate and the decline in the latest two years,the absolute number of
256、journeys made on the bus network is still much higher than the number of journeys made on rail or Underground/DLR.Rail demand was most noticeably affected by the economic recession,dropping by 2.9 per cent between 2008 and 2009.Between 2009 and 2015,however,rail demand has been strong,increasing by
257、44.1 per cent over that period.However,growth in 2016 was just 0.7 per cent,a much lower rate of growth than typical over recent years.Underground demand also increased between 2009 and 2016,by 30.0 per cent.Growth in Underground demand was slower than usual in the latest year,increasing by just 0.7
258、 per cent between 2015 and 2016 compared to 7.2 per cent between 2014 and 2015.The growth in demand for public transport in part reflects Londons population growth.However,while population grew by 21.4 per cent between 2000 and 2016,public transport demand grew by 64.1 per cent this shows that publi
259、c transport demand is growing much faster than population growth(figure 3.2),reflecting an underlying change in mode share towards public transport.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Journey stages(millions)National Rail/London OvergroundUnde
260、rground/DLRBus42 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.2 Growth in demand(journey stages)on the principal public transport modes compared with growth in population and employment in London,2000 to 2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Public t
261、ransport trips by mode,annual totals(millions)Patronage trends on Londons public transport networks are described in more detail below.Table 3.1 is a summary of key patronage trends for the principal modes since 2010.Table 3.1 Patronage on the principal public transport modes 2010-2016.Millions of t
262、rips per day.Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 National Rail 2.25 2.39 2.59 2.69 2.84 2.96 2.96 Underground/DLR 2.11 2.21 2.38 2.49 2.59 2.82 2.85 Bus/tram 4.04 4.10 4.05 4.13 4.14 3.85 3.75 Total 8.40 8.71 9.02 9.30 9.57 9.63 9.56 Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.3.3 Public transpo
263、rt modes:Bus Long-term trend in bus patronage Figure 3.3 shows the long-term trend for bus patronage in London.The pattern of strong growth from the late 1990s has stabilised in more recent years,with a generally flat picture from the end of the last decade up to 2013/14.Following a 2.7 per cent dec
264、line in both journeys and passenger kilometres in 2015/16,there has been a further fall in patronage in the most recent(financial)year,with a 2.3 per 02040608001802000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Index:2000=100Public transport stagesPopul
265、ationEmployment43 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode cent decline in terms of bus journey stages and 2.1 per cent in passenger kilometres.Figure 3.3 Passenger kilometres and journey stages travelled by bus.Source:TfL Service Performance data.Recent factors aff
266、ecting bus patronage The most recent financial year was notable for a decline in the number of bus trips made in London.Because the bus network carries around 15 per cent of all trips in London on a typical day,this was the major factor underlying the overall change in mode shares as described in ch
267、apter 2 of this report.However,it is not the case that people have simply moved from bus to car,or that this change is wholly a direct reflection of factors specific to the bus network itself.This section describes in more detail what is known about the factors underlying this recent change.Figure 3
268、.4 shows the short-term trend in bus passenger demand over the most recent four years,and also includes available recent data from the 2017/18 financial year.Note that the values are moving averages across 13 four-week financial periods.It is seen that:The start of the interruption to the long-term
269、trend of growth occurred during the 2014/15 financial year.By the end of the 2016/17 financial year,patronage had fallen by 6.1 per cent from the high point.During 2017,bus patronage has been fairly flat,increasing by 0.2 per cent.Nevertheless,the previous decline appears to have been stabilised.The
270、 recent fall in patronage should also be seen in the context of continuing growth to Londons population,which would otherwise have resulted in patronage growth each year.-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Passenger journey stages(millions)Passenger kilometres(millions)Pa
271、ssenger kilometresJourney stagesNew estimation method for bus introduced in 2007/08.44 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.4 Recent trend in bus passenger journeys per day,13 financial period moving average.Source:TfL fares&ticketing.The reasons underl
272、ying this change in trend are complex and are still being evaluated by TfL.In terms of potential explanatory factors:Bus service supply and quality have been broadly maintained at similar levels to those previously applying.The recent patronage declines are not therefore thought to primarily reflect
273、 these factors.Bus journey speeds have however seen a substantial impact from road works.It is known that,over the shorter term,bus patronage responds fairly directly to changes in average bus speeds a factor that is particularly key to the competitiveness of this mode alongside other modes such as
274、walk or rail.The recent slowing of the rate of decline in patronage is also thought,largely,to reflect an improvement over recent months in average bus speeds,reflecting action by TfL to further ameliorate the impact of works.There have also been factors primarily affecting other modes that have imp
275、acted on bus patronage.Examples have included the prolonged reconstruction of London Bridge station,and the Southern rail strikes,which will for example have significantly reduced onward bus travel by rail passengers from the stations affected,albeit on a temporary basis.The trend seen in London is
276、paralleled by a similar trend for bus patronage in the rest of England.Passenger journeys on local bus services in England outside of London have declined by 4.8 per cent in the last ten years,with a 1.1 per cent decrease in the latest year.Although specific factors applying in London are not necess
277、arily reflected in other parts of the country,this is interesting in that it could suggest that wider societal factors are at play.5.05.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.813579 11 13 2468 10 12 13579 11 13 2468 10 12 135713/1414/1515/1616/1717/18Bus journeys(millions)Year and period13 period moving average45
278、Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode It is notable(see chapter 4 of this report)that the recently observed trend towards lower average per person trip rates particularly affects leisure and shopping trips,which may have particularly impacted on bus patronage.Fur
279、thermore,the introduction of the Night Tube at weekends from August 2016 also abstracted patronage from the Night Bus network,which has since been modified to reflect the new demand patterns(see figure 3.5).Figure 3.5 Recent trend in night bus patronage.Source:TfL Service Performance data.Implicatio
280、ns for overall mode shares in London Although these changes to bus patronage are a significant factor underlying the overall change to mode shares in London,it is not the case that former bus passengers have simply shifted to the car.In fact,data from TfLs LTDS survey shows that this is very much a
281、minor effect(Figure 3.6).Looking at the mode share of those individuals who stated in the 2015/16 survey that they had reduced their bus use,the data suggests that people have redistributed across the modes in approximate proportion to the prevailing overall mode shares for travel in London.This sug
282、gests that the increase in car use in London,as also seen more widely outside London,has different primary causes.The relative attractiveness of car as a mode is of course also affected by the very changes to average traffic speeds that are thought to have affected the bus network.Although on the ba
283、sis of this analysis the transfers to bus and cycle look disproportionately high,these two modes are affected by low sample sizes in the context of this survey.A significant factor uncovered by the LTDS data,however,is that people who reported reducing their bus use contributed disproportionately to
284、 the growing number of people in London who report making no trips on the LTDS survey day 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Night bus journeys(million)Inner LondonOuter LondonGreater London46 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode(the growing phenomenon of non travel see al
285、so chapter 4 of this report).This suggests that the decline in bus travel may reflect a decrease in discretionary trips or,equally possible,an increase in working from home,perhaps because of the rail disruptions noted above.Figure 3.6 Reported change in mode use of LTDS survey respondents who repor
286、ted reducing their bus use(2015/16).Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.3.4 Public transport modes:Underground The number of people using the Underground in 2016/17 was the highest ever(figure 3.7),with 1,378 million passenger journeys(journey stages),a 2.1 per cent increase on the previous(
287、financial)year.Passenger kilometres increased by 3 per cent over the past year.This rate of growth is slightly slower than in previous years,and compares to an increase of 3.4 per cent in journey stages and 5.6 per cent in passenger kilometres between 2014/15 and 2015/16.Private car40%Walk20%Rail mo
288、des27%Cycle8%Taxi/other5%Private car33%Bus21%Walk16%Rail modes22%Cycle7%Taxi/other5%Share of modes that people who decreased their bus use increased their use ofLondon overall mode share47 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.7 Passenger kilometres and
289、journey stages by Underground.Source:TfL Service Performance data.Very recent trends in Underground patronage Given the recent decline in bus patronage,and the smaller-than-trend growth in Underground travel in 2016/17,it is instructive to look at more recent patronage data for this mode.Figure 3.8,
290、moving into the current(2017/18)financial year,does indeed show more definite evidence of a slowdown in the rate of growth of Underground patronage.Bearing in mind that the graph shows a 13 financial period moving average,average patronage in period 6 of the 2017/18 financial year was 0.3 per cent b
291、elow the average for the corresponding period in 2016/17.As with bus,the actual trend must be viewed in the context of previously forecast growth over this period.It is too early to properly explain this apparent trend or to understand whether it will be sustained for the longer term;however,it is t
292、hought that prolonged disruption to parts of the National Rail network,affecting onward travel by Underground,will have been a significant factor,alongside more general security concerns.02004006008001,0001,2001,40002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000Passenger journey stages(millions)Passenger ki
293、lometres(millions)Passenger kilometresJourney stages48 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.8 Recent trend in Underground passenger journeys per day,13 financial period moving average.Source:TfL fares&ticketing.3.5 Public transport modes:London Overgrou
294、nd Since the first full year of operation of the London Overground,in 2008/09,to 2016/17,passenger kilometres have increased by 203 per cent,with a 469 per cent increase in passenger journey stages and a 218 per cent increase in train kilometres operated.This reflects the progressive expansion of th
295、e network coupled with a shortening of journey stage lengths following the extensions of the network to a number of main travel interchanges,such as Clapham Junction.In May 2015,London Overground took over the operation of services between Liverpool Street and Enfield Town,Cheshunt(via Seven Sisters
296、)and Chingford as well as those on the Romford to Upminster line.Inclusion of this significant network contributed to an overall 32.4 per cent increase in patronage in 2015/16 compared to 2014/15,with a further increase of 1.9 per cent between 2015/16 and 2016/17.TfL also assumed operation of the co
297、re Shenfield to Liverpool Street local service in May 2015.Currently operating as TfL Rail,this service will form part of the Elizabeth line,which will open fully in December 2019.Passenger kilometres on TfL Rail increased by 12.8 per cent between 2015/16 and 2016/17,with a 19.1 per cent increase in
298、 the number of journey stages.As the TfL Rail concession began part way through the 2015/16 financial year,the 2015/16 figures are not directly comparable with 2016/17(the first full financial year of operation as TfL Rail).2.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.913579 11 13 2468 10 12 13579 11 13 2468 10 12 135713
299、/1414/1515/1616/1717/18Underground journeys(millions)Year and period13 period average13 period average-minus Olympic effect49 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.9 Passenger kilometres and journey stages by London Overground and TfL Rail.Source:TfL Ser
300、vice Performance data.In 2016/17 total patronage across both the London Overground and TfL Rail networks stood at 233 million journey stages and 1,863 million passenger kilometres,around 5 per cent of all public transport journeys made in London.Because of the addition of these two substantial rail
301、networks to the portfolio,it is not definitively possible to establish an underlying rate of change in patronage for these services.3.6 Public transport modes:National Rail in London National Rail travel has grown strongly at the national level over the past decade,with only a brief slowdown during
302、the recent recession.This pattern is reflected for travel on services defined by the Office of Rail and Road(ORR)as London and South East(L&SE)operators,although this service group is not an exact match for rail trips affecting London.The average rate of growth between 2000 and 2016 was 3.7 per cent
303、 per year in terms of passenger kilometres and 5 per cent per year in terms of passenger journeys.In common with other public transport modes however there is also evidence of a slowdown in the historic high levels of growth for National Rail travel in the most recent year.Passenger kilometres incre
304、ased by 0.4 per cent in 2016,a much lower level of growth than had been typical of the previous five years.Passenger journeys actually decreased by 0.5 per cent,compared to typical growth rates in the range of four to 9 per cent over the previous six years(table 3.2).-2 4 6 8 10 08001,000
305、1,2001,4002008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17Train kilometres operated(millions)Passenger kilometres and journey stages(millions)Passenger kilometres-London Overground Journey stages-London OvergroundPassenger kilometres-TfL RailJourney stages-TfL Rail Train kilometres op
306、erated-London OvergroundTrain kilometres operated-TfL Rail50 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Table 3.2 Passenger kilometres and passenger journey stages by National Rail operators classified by ORR as London and South East operators.Year Passenger kilometre
307、s(billions)Year-to-year percentage change Passenger journeys(millions)Year-to-year percentage change 2000/01 19.2 4.4 664 4.0 2001/02 19.3 0.3 663-0.1 2002/03 19.8 2.8 679 2.4 2003/04 20.1 1.7 690 1.6 2004/05 20.5 1.9 704 2.1 2005/06 20.7 1.1 720 2.2 2006/07 22.2 7.1 769 6.9 2007/08 23.5 6.1 828 7.7
308、 2008/09 24.2 2.9 854 3.1 2009/10 23.8-1.8 842-1.4 2010/11 25.0 5.2 918 9.0 2011/12 26.4 5.3 994 8.3 2012/13 27.3 3.4 1,032 3.9 2013/14 28.6 4.9 1,107 7.2 2014/15 29.6 3.4 1,155 4.3 2015/16 30.5 3.0 1,203 4.2 2016/17 30.6 0.4 1,197-0.5 Source:Office of Rail and Road.Although it is likely that disrup
309、tion to parts of the National Rail network in London,notably the prolonged strike at Southern,are a factor here it is notable that growth in rail appears also to have stalled at the national(all operators)level,with growth of 0.8 per cent in 2016/17 compared with growth rates of 3 to 8 per cent in t
310、he previous six years.3.7 Public transport modes:Docklands Light Railway Figure 3.10 shows the trend for travel by DLR since its initial opening in 1987.Patronage has grown rapidly over this period as the network has progressively expanded.Principal milestones in the development of the network are s
311、hown in the figure to aid interpretation.In 2016/17,657 million passenger kilometres were travelled on the DLR,equivalent to 122 million journey stages.The number of passenger kilometres has increased by 5.5 per cent since 2015/16 while the number of journey stages has increased by 4.6 per cent.This
312、 trend continues the strong growth seen over recent years and is in contrast to recent trends on other parts of the rail and bus network.51 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.10 Passenger kilometres and journey stages by DLR.Source:TfL Service Perform
313、ance data.3.8 Public transport modes:London Trams London Trams initially opened in 2000 and the network has been relatively stable in extent since,albeit with a service restructuring in 2006.Figure 3.11 shows steady patronage growth averaging 4 per cent for passenger kilometres and journey stages ov
314、er the period since opening although journey stages did decrease slightly,from 31.2 million in 2013/14 to 30.7 million in 2014/15.This decline in journey stages and passenger kilometres continued into 2015/16,decreasing by 12.2 per cent respectively.This was due to part closures of the lines as a re
315、sult of town centre pedestrian ambience works as well as line improvement works.In 2016/17,passenger kilometres were up 9.4 per cent to 154 million and journey stages were up by 9.3 per cent to 30 million overall.020406080002003004005006007008009001,000Passenger journey stages(millions)Pa
316、ssenger kilometres(millions)Passenger kilometresJourney stagesBeckton extension opensLewisham extension opensCity Airport extension opensWoolwichArsenal extension opensStratford Intnl extension opens52 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.11 Passenger k
317、ilometres and journey stages by London Trams.Source:TfL Service Performance data.3.9 Public transport modes:Emirates Air Line The Emirates Air Line,providing a cable car service across the Thames between the Greenwich Peninsula and the Royal Docks,opened in June 2012,just prior to the London 2012 Ga
318、mes.Figure 3.12 shows that,following the exceptional conditions of summer 2012,the Emirates Air Line has settled into a more regular pattern of use,typically between 80,000 and 200,000 passengers per four-week period,with more passengers seen during school holidays.In 2016/17,1.4 million journeys we
319、re undertaken on the Emirates Air Line,similar to the previous few years.0550500300Passenger journey stages(millions)Passenger kilometres(millions)Passenger kilometresJourney stages53 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.12 Number
320、of journey stages by Emirates Air Line.Source:TfL Service Performance data.3.10 Public transport modes:River Services Passenger traffic on the Thames Patronage on TfLs River Services has seen strong growth in recent years,with more than 10 million passengers carried in 2016/17.Figure 3.13 shows that
321、 the number of passengers increased by 3.1 per cent between 2015/16 and 2016/17.0050060024-Jun-1224-Jun-1324-Jun-1424-Jun-1524-Jun-1624-Jun-17Passenger journey stages per period(thousands)54 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.13 Passengers
322、using TfLs River Services.Source:TfL River Services.3.11 Active travel:Overall trends This section considers recent travel demand trends for walking and cycling in London.Historic trends Building on the commentary in chapter 2 of this report,figure 3.14 shows the historic trend in the number of trip
323、s in London made by active modes walking and cycling on an average day.Whilst the absolute numbers of each differ in scale(note the dual axes of the graph)the trend for both has been steadily upwards over the period since 2000.This in part reflects population growth,particularly for walking,but also
324、 reflects,particularly more recently,enhancements to the walking and cycling networks to improve their attractiveness as a means of travel.The average annual rate of growth for walking since 2000 has been 1.2 per cent and for cycling the average annual growth rate was 5.5 per cent.Since 2010 the ave
325、rage annual growth rates were 1.4 and 4.8 per cent respectively,and over the latest year they were 1.3 and 8.2 per cent respectively.The figure is suggestive of a significant and sustained up-turn for cycling in comparison with prevailing trends up to 2013.02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001234567891
326、0111213Passengers(thousands)Period2013/142014/152015/162016/1755 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by principal travel mode Figure 3.14 Number of walk and cycle trips in London on an average day,2000-2016.Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.3.12 Active travel modes:Cycling Ov
327、erall levels of cycling in London In 2016,there were 730,000 cycle journey stages in London on an average day,which is an 8.8 per cent increase on 2015.This follows a 3.5 per cent increase in the previous year,with an overall 75 per cent increase in cycle stages since 2005(table 3.3)and an increase
328、of 154 per cent increase since 2000.Cycle stages are the preferred measure of cycling activity,and this measure has grown strongly and relatively consistently over the last decade or so at a much faster rate than population growth.The(broadly similar)trend for cycle-all-the-way trips only is also sh
329、own on the table.0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Cycle trips/stages per day(millions)Walk trips per day(millions)Walk trips Cycle trips Cycle stages56 Travel in London,report 10 3.Travel demand trends by pri
330、ncipal travel mode Table 3.3 Daily average cycle stages and trips in London.Cycle stages Cycle trips Millions Year-on-year change%Millions 2005 0.41 9 0.39 2006 0.47 12 0.42 2007 0.47 0 0.42 2008 0.49 5 0.44 2009 0.51 5 0.47 2010 0.54 6 0.49 2011 0.57 5 0.49 2012 0.58 2 0.50 2013 0.58 1 0.50 2014 0.
331、65 10 0.56 2015 0.67 4 0.60 2016 0.73 9 0.65 Source:TfL City Planning,Strategic Analysis.Note:A cycle trip is defined as a one-way movement to achieve a specific purpose that is conducted entirely by bike.A cycle journey stage includes these trips,but also includes shorter cycle legs undertaken as p
332、art of a longer trip using another mode for example,cycling to a station to catch a train.Cycle journey stages therefore gives the best indication of total cycling activity.This total applies to the whole of Greater London.It is the case that levels of cycling vary considerably across London,and the
333、re has in particular been strong and consistent growth in cycling in and around central London.This variability is explored in the next section below.Cycle trips and stages in Greater London Given the limitations of on-street observational surveys at the London wide level,cycling activity is also measured using TfLs LTDS survey on the basis of London residents only.This is an established survey wi