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1、Trade in services for developmentFostering sustainable growth and economic diversificationAbout the World BankThe World Bank Group is one of the worlds largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries.Its five institutions the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,th
2、e International Development Association,the International Finance Corporation,the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes share a commitment to reducing poverty,increasing shared prosperity,and promoting sustainable development.Abou
3、t the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between nations.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,predictably and freely as possible,with a level playing field for all its members.A World Bank and WTO co-publicationTrad
4、e in services for developmentFostering sustainable growth and economic diversificationDisclaimer The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors.They do not represent the positions or opinions of the World Bank,its Board of Directors or the governments they represent nor do they
5、represent the positions or opinions of the WTO or its members and are without prejudice to members rights and obligations under the WTO.Any errors are attributable to the authors.The designations employed in this publication and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any
6、 opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank and the WTO concerning the legal status of any country,area or territory or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.AcknowledgementsThis publication is the result of a joint effort of the World Bank and the WTO.The publicat
7、ion was co-authored and coordinated by Martin Roy of the WTO and Pierre Sauv of the World Bank under the supervision of Deputy Director-General Anabel Gonzalez and Xiaolin Chai,Director of the Trade in Services and Investment Division,at the WTO,and Mona Haddad,Global Director of Trade,Investment an
8、d Competitiveness,and Sebastien Dessus,Practice Manager,Trade and Regional Integration,at the World Bank.The publication was edited by Ross McRae and Anthony Martin of the WTO.The World Bank and the WTO are grateful to all those who provided comments and guidance during the drafting of this publicat
9、ion.At the World Bank,special thanks go to Nora Carina Dihel,Bernard Hoekman and Sebastin Sez for their careful review;Roberto Echandi,Elwyn Davies and Albert Zeufaq for their comments;and Karen Muramatsu for contributions on several recent World Bank projects depicted in the publication.At the WTO,
10、special thanks go to Ravneek Bhullar for excellent research assistance throughout this project;and Barbara DAndrea and Shradha Bhatia for assistance on services trade statistics.Special thanks also go to Pamela Apaza Lanyi,Laura Baiker,Elena Bertola,Antonia Carzaniga,Christophe Degain,Emmanuelle Gan
11、ne,Ishrat Hans,Markus Jelitto,Claudia Locatelli,Joscelyn Magdeleine,Sang Hyun Park,Cdric Pene,Michael Roberts,Ester Rubio,Karsten Steinfatt,Victor Stolzenburg and Ruosi Zhang for their helpful inputs,comments and suggestions.ContentsForeword 2Executive summary 4Introduction 8The future of trade lies
12、 in services:key trends 12The contribution of services trade policies 46Fostering economic development through services trade 72 Conclusion 94Abbreviations 96Bibliography 971232Trade in services for developmentForewordServices have emerged as the driving force that is shaping the economic landscape
13、of countries at all levels of development.They account for the largest share of global economic activity by generating more than two-thirds of GDP,employ the most workers,and are the source of most new job creation,especially for female and young workers.At the same time,services trade has turned in
14、to a key element in growth strategies,becoming the most dynamic component of global trade in recent times,and creating higher value-added jobs.The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the growth of digitally delivered services,while travel services were hit hard.Modern services such as information and comm
15、unications technology and business services now represent a greater share of exports in developing economies,helping these countries capture an increasing share of world exports in these dynamic sectors.Services trade offers significant and multifaceted development impact.Services offer a direct rou
16、te for developing economies to diversify their exports away from a limited range of products and commodities.Services-led export diversification can also boost resilience by reducing exposure to commodity price volatility.Improved access to high-quality modern services is also critical to the operat
17、ion of cross-border production networks and fundamental to economy-wide productivity gains.The trade facilitating role that services play as intermediate inputs is a key determinant of improved export performance of other sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture.Moreover,high-value services and
18、 services exports are creating new well-paid jobs for young people and professionals in developing economies.Services trade is associated with inclusive growth,given its positive impacts on the employment prospects of women workers,the youth and entrepreneurs as well as on micro,small and medium-siz
19、ed enterprises.Advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals requires effective access to a host of services,ranging from health and education to finance,transport and logistics services.Policy measures governing trade and investment in telecommunications and computer services are key d
20、eterminants of enhanced digital connectivity,while trade in environmental services strengthens efforts to combat climate change and improve environmental stewardship.Services represent the future of trade.Developing economies have already made important inroads in leveraging services trade,but much
21、remains to be done to fully realize the sectors development promise.There is a need to re-ignite international cooperation in the services sector.Such efforts need to expand trade and investment,reduce trade costs,bring about greater transparency and predictability on trade policy regimes and,ultima
22、tely,increase the participation of developing 3ForewordNgozi Okonjo-Iweala Director-General World Trade Organization Ajay Banga President World Bank Groupeconomies in policy deliberations and negotiations on services trade.Further,data must be able to move more freely and securely across borders to
23、support digital trade and realize the growth potential for inclusion and jobs.Deepened international cooperation on services trade requires more Aid for Trade,as domestic reforms and international negotiations in sectors subject to considerable regulatory scrutiny are still challenging for many deve
24、loping economies.A“Trade in Services for Development”initiative could support deeper international cooperation by mobilizing resources for technical assistance and capacity building.The WTO Secretariat and the World Bank Group stand ready to help governments realize the full development potential of
25、 trade in services.4Trade in services for developmentThis co-publication by the World Bank and the WTO is motivated by a shared view that the structural changes associated with a more service-centric world economy and the central contribution that expanded trade and investment in services can make t
26、o economic growth and development warrant greater policy attention and revived international cooperation.An important aim of the publication,and a key reason for its joint nature,is to recall the benefits of advancing the negotiating agenda on trade in services,and the opportunity costs of not doing
27、 so.Accordingly,the publication aims to foster reflection on how best to mobilize additional support and better assistance for developing and least-developed economies in implementing services sector reforms and reaping the development gains from expanded trade and investment in services.In arguing
28、the case for reinvigorated international cooperation in services trade,it is important to remember that advancing the development prospects of countries and the welfare of their citizens remains the ultimate goal of policy reform efforts.Trade,economic diversification and deeper integration provide
29、key channels through which broader development aims can be pursued.Such a distinction matters substantively,as a host of more purely domestic policy reforms,spanning areas as diverse as education and training,trade facilitating infrastructure both physical and digital and sound regulatory frameworks
30、 can affect the degree to which trade and investment in services can serve as development levers.Simply put,the development payoff from expanded services trade stands to be magnified by supportive domestic business,regulatory and human capital ecosystems.While it is important to consider reforms to
31、services trade in a broader development setting,this publication does not delve extensively into the development dimension of services per se.Rather,it draws attention to the role that can be assigned to deepened international cooperation,and thus to trade policy,negotiations and agreements in the s
32、ector,in helping secure the far-reaching development dividends associated to domestic reforms and increased trade in services.The sheer diversity of the services sector suggests that policy reforms need to pay close attention to and be informed by differences in the nature and roles that various ser
33、vices play,in the multiple ways they are traded,in the intensity of the regulatory scrutiny they command,in the broad range of public policy aims their supply pursues and in the political economy forces they put in play.Such differentiation helps explain why services sector governance rarely if ever
34、 proceeds on a one-size-fits-all basis.It also explains why domestic reforms anchored in trade agreements typically proceed in a progressive manner.Despite challenges linked to characteristics that are intrinsic to services and to the sectors heterogeneity,a deepened commitment to supportive domesti
35、c business environments and to trade openness in services form indissociable parts of a comprehensive growth-enhancing policy agenda.The world economy has in recent decades undergone structural shifts that have brought services to the forefront.Services account for the largest share of global econom
36、ic activity,generating more than two-thirds of GDP,employ the most workers and are the source of most new job creation,especially for female and young workers.Services spur growth through the key intermediation role they play as inputs into the production of other Executive summary5Executive summary
37、services and goods,such that the benefits of boosting the competitiveness of services and goods markets are mutually reinforcing.The economy-wide ubiquity of services means the sector plays a key role in the export competitiveness of businesses in all sectors.Productivity gains in extractive industr
38、ies,agriculture and manufacturing are all shaped by the ease of access to efficient services and infrastructure.Improved access to quality and affordable services can enable developing economies to integrate globally.Diversification,and hence a more varied range of services exports,will increase res
39、ilience to unexpected economic events and promote the pursuit of more sustainable development paths.Beyond their rising importance in domestic economies and their key role as intermediate inputs,services are also an increasingly prominent feature of cross-border exchanges.Services had long been the
40、most dynamic component of international trade and investment prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,and the world has since borne witness to how services offer growing export opportunities,including for developing and least-developed economies,as digitalization and the ability to deliver services remotely r
41、emove barriers to trade arising from the limited size and challenging geography of some economies.Expanded trade and investment in services can spur productivity growth and act as a key channel for the dissemination and adoption of new technologies and know-how.A conducive business climate for domes
42、tic and foreign services providers therefore improves the overall efficiency of resource use.By contributing to improved performance in the sector,services trade policies also represent a critically important means of achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,contributing in the pro
43、cess to alleviating poverty and increasing shared prosperity.Elevating the policy attention paid to services requires that domestic and international policies be brought up to speed with the reality of the global services economy.For trade policy-makers,this means intensifying cooperation to overcom
44、e obstacles that hinder trade and investment in services.At the domestic level,continued efforts need to be directed to putting in place business and regulatory environments conducive to the supply of more efficient and competitively priced services.At the global level,stepped up cooperation could e
45、ntail renewed efforts to provide greater transparency and predictability to services trade regimes,building on advances registered in the latest generation of deep preferential trade agreements.Moving in this direction could provide a major boost to restoring the primacy of the multilateral trading
46、system in matters of services trade governance at a time when calls for its reform and reinvigoration have gained wide currency.6Trade in services for developmentKey messagesThe publication delivers six key messages.1.Services trade is highly dynamic and offers important opportunities for developing
47、 economies Services trade has been the most dynamic component of world trade for the last 15 years.Such dynamism provides developing and least-developed economies significant opportunities for export-led growth,economic diversification,inflows of foreign direct investment(FDI)and integration into gl
48、obal value chains.Services trade promotes greater inclusiveness,particularly for female and young workers and entrepreneurs as well as micro,small and medium-sized enterprises(MSMEs).In 2021,59 per cent of employed women worked in the services sector,and 9 out of 10 services firms were MSMEs.Today,t
49、he services sector generates half of employment worldwide and two-thirds of global GDP more than agriculture and industry combined.These changes in the structure of the global economy challenge long-held perceptions of services as a less desirable path to economic growth and development compared to
50、manufacturing.2.The growth in services trade is a result of mutually reinforcing factorsThe growth in services trade has resulted from the interplay of a number of mutually reinforcing factors.These include not only policy reform efforts to make domestic service markets more contestable(petitive)but
51、 also the accelerating pace of technological change.Intermediate services(i.e.inputs in the production of other goods and services)play an increasing role in sustaining trade growth through economy-wide improvements in efficiency and facilitating cross-border production.3.Trade in services has becom
52、e more digitalizedFuelled by advances in information and communications technologies(ICT),exports of commercial services almost tripled between 2005 and 2022,with exports of digitally delivered services experiencing the fastest growth,increasing almost four-fold.During the same period,developing eco
53、nomies accounted for an increasing share of global services trade,as least-developed economies exports of commercial services grew more than four-fold between 2005 and 2002,while those of other developing economies more than tripled.The expansion of developing economies exports is increasingly tied
54、to services supplied across borders through digital means.And developing economies account for an increasing share of non-traditional service exports.Such gains belie the export pessimism that long permeated earlier discussions of services trade and tended to limit developing country engagement in n
55、egotiations,particularly at the WTO.7Executive summary4.Services are central to tackling the most pressing global challengesSignificant opportunities in the services sector still remain to be seized by developing countries.Barriers to trade remain an obstacle in different sectors and modes of supply
56、.However,services trade policy has an important role to play in reducing trade costs,improving the performance of services,attracting FDI,boosting supply-chain resilience and increasing manufacturing productivity and exports.In this regard,services trade policies play a key role in strategies to pro
57、mote development.Moreover,there is a growing acceptance that services and services trade will prove central to tackling the most pressing global challenges These include benefits offered by a rapidly digitalizing global economy,facilitating timely access to critical goods and services in response to
58、 pandemics and natural disasters,addressing food security by adopting the latest technology in agricultural practices,facilitating the transition to a decarbonized global economy,and designing and deploying green technologies.5.Improved commitments on services trade can bring key benefitsAlthough se
59、rvices sector reforms are chiefly undertaken by governments at the domestic level through autonomous policy measures,binding commitments in trade agreements represents a key policy complement.While services trade barriers impose significant costs,uncertainty stemming from the absence or relative pau
60、city of binding commitments carries additional costs.Improving the level of binding commitments in services trade can send positive signals to investors about ones business and investment climate.Encouraging WTO members to bind their best commitments from preferential trade agreements could provide
61、a major boost to multilateral trade diplomacy without requiring any additional liberalization undertakings as commitments undertaken in preferential settings are typically implemented on a non-discriminatory(i.e.most-favoured-nation treatment)basis.The complementary role played by legally binding co
62、mmitments in trade agreements can help to prevent protectionist backsliding and lock-in prevailing degrees of openness.The scope for unduly discretionary or arbitrary trade action can be reduced through increased transparency and policy predictability.Economies stand to benefit from the significant
63、development gains of reviving the WTOs market access negotiations on services.6.An Aid for Trade roadmap for services can help tackle key challenges Adapting international cooperation to the new realities of services trade calls for increased levels of Aid for Trade.This support should be directed t
64、o strengthening the capacity of developing economies to design and implement services trade reforms and supply competitive services to global markets.Many developing and least-developed economies find it difficult to conduct domestic policy reforms and negotiations in services trade not least becaus
65、e of the diverse nature of the service economy,the regulatory intensity that characterizes it,constraints in policy formulation and regulatory enforcement as well as in supply-side capacities.An approach in which Aid for Trade support underpins efforts to enhance international cooperation,reduce tra
66、de costs and improve the transparency and predictability of trading conditions could provide momentum to the services trade policy agenda particularly at the WTO.A“trade in services for development”initiative could help to mobilize a coherent Aid for Trade package in services,targeting five key chal
67、lenges:(i)addressing data gaps in services trade;(ii)supporting greater participation of developing and least-developed economies in policy discussions on trade in services;(iii)strengthening regulatory frameworks and institutions;(iv)promoting diversification,notably that offered by digital service
68、s trade;and(v)addressing key supply-side constraints and improving the services-related skills of workers.8Trade in services for developmentServices are shaping how trade contributes to economic growth and development The world economy has in recent decades undergone structural shifts brought on by
69、rapid technological developments that have made services one of the most dynamic sectors.The services sector has been the main source of economic growth since the 1990s and services today dominate the production and employment landscape of economies at all levels of development(Nayyar and Davies,202
70、3).Subsectors such as logistics,finance and information and communication technologies(ICT)are essential to the functioning of modern economies.Services have long comprised many of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy such as business services,healthcare,entertainment and ICT services.Ex
71、amples of the types of services covered by the General Agreement on Trade in Services(GATS)are provided in Figure 1.Beyond their rising importance in domestic economies,services are also an increasingly prominent feature of cross-border exchanges.Services had long been the most dynamic component of
72、international trade and investment prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and the world has since borne witness to how services offer growing export opportunities,including for developing and least-developed economies,as digitalization and the ability to deliver services remotely remove barriers to trade wh
73、ich can arise from the limited size and challenging geography of economies and ease trade within and across borders.Services were severely impacted by the pandemic,with business closures and social distancing measures exacting a heavy toll on the sector.Health-related measures adopted to slow the sp
74、read of the virus,including restrictions on cross-border mobility,led to an unprecedented collapse of services trade,which declined across all regions.The impact was more severe for services involving face-to-face interactions.Services trade in the travel sector decreased 81 per cent year-on-year in
75、 the second quarter of 2020.At the same time,ICT services were key in ensuring economic and trade resilience and in speeding up pandemic recovery efforts.A sustained rebound in services trade and investment will be critical to global recovery prospects.Trade and investment policies in services are e
76、ssential to harnessing the sectors growth and development potential.However,maximizing the benefits requires a rethinking of the central contribution that services trade plays in the development process.Furthermore,interest in tackling the barriers to trade and investment in the sector needs to be r
77、evived at the global level.The ability of services firms and suppliers to operate outside domestic markets holds the key to promoting growth,deepening integration and speeding up efforts to diversify economies.Economic diversification can be fuelled not only by growing opportunities for services exp
78、orts but also through the greater use(and sourcing)of competitively priced services as inputs in other sectors.Services contribute centrally to the operation of cross-border production networks,such as regional and global value chains.When measured in valued-added terms,services account for 50 per c
79、ent of world trade.Introduction9IntroductionFigure 1.Services sectors and subsectorsOTHER SERVICES NOT INCLUDED ELSEWHERESERVICESSECTORSBUSINESS SERVICES(professional,computer&related,R&D,real estate,rental/leasing,other business services)COMMUNICATION SERVICES(postal,courier,telecommunication,audio
80、visual)CONSTRUCTION AND RELATED ENGINEERING SERVICES(general construction for buildings&for civil engineering,installation&assembly work,building completion&finishing work)DISTRIBUTION SERVICES(commission agents,wholesale trade,retailing,franchising)EDUCATIONAL SERVICES(primary,secondary,higher,adul
81、t)ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES(sewage,refuse disposal,sanitation&similar)FINANCIAL SERVICES(all insurance and insurance related,banking&other financial)HEALTH RELATED AND SOCIAL SERVICES(hospital,other human health,social)TOURISM AND TRAVEL RELATED SERVICES(hotels&restaurants,travel agencies&tour operator
82、s,tourist guides)RECREATIONAL,CULTURAL AND SPORTING SERVICES(entertainment,news agency,libraries,archives,museums&other culture,sporting&other recreational)TRANSPORT SERVICES(maritime,internal waterways,air,space,rail,road,pipeline,services auxiliary to all modes of transport)1112Source:S
83、ervices Sectoral Classification List,GATT document MTN.GNS/W/120.10Trade in services for developmentThe economy-wide ubiquity of services means the sector plays a key role in the export competitiveness of businesses in all sectors.Productivity gains in extractive industries,agriculture and manufactu
84、ring are all shaped by the ease of access to efficient services and infrastructure.Improved access to quality and affordable services can enable developing economies to integrate globally.Diversification can help to mitigate economic risk and trade volatility.Hence,a more varied range of services ex
85、ports will increase resilience to unexpected economic events and promote the pursuit of more sustainable development paths(ADB,2021a;UNCTAD,2022).A fuller appreciation of the dual nature of services as intermediate inputs and final exports was largely absent,however,when the global services regime t
86、ook shape during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations.Growth in the services sector amplifies the impact and relevance of government policies affecting cross-border trade and investment in services.Such policies,which span a wide“Trade and investment policies in services are essential to harnessi
87、ng the sectors growth and development potential.”range of“inside-the-border”measures of a regulatory nature,are increasingly important determinants of foreign direct investment,economy-wide productivity gains and export performance.This publication is a collaboration between the World Bank and the W
88、TO.It is motivated by a shared view that the transformative properties associated with a more service-centric world economy and the contribution that trade and investment in services can make to economic growth and development warrant greater policy attention and revived international cooperation.Th
89、e publication aims to help mobilize additional support and better assistance for developing and least-developed economies in implementing services trade reforms and reaping the development gains from expanded trade and investment in services.In arguing the case for reinvigorated international cooper
90、ation in services trade,it is important to remember that advancing the development prospects of countries and the welfare of their citizens remains the ultimate goal of policy reform.Trade,economic diversification and deeper integration provide key channels through which broader development aims can
91、 be pursued.Such a distinction matters substantively as a host of more purely domestic policies can be expected to condition the scope that exists to use trade and investment as development levers in services.Simply put,the development payoff from expanded services trade stands to be magnified by su
92、pportive domestic business,regulatory and human capital ecosystems.11IntroductionTHE SERVICES SECTOR IS THE MOST DYNAMIC COMPONENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADEServices sector is larger than agriculture and industry combinedShare of global GDP,2021AgricultureIndustryServices account for67%50%of global trad
93、e in value-added termsDigitally delivered services exports were worthUS$3.82 trillion in 202254%of total global services exports were delivered digitally in 2022+375%The increase in digitally delivered services exports since 200512Trade in services for development1The future of trade lies in service
94、s:key trendsKey points Structural shifts in the world economy brought on by rapid technological developments have placed services and services trade at the heart of economic transformation.These shifts challenge long-held perceptions of services as a less desirable path to economic growth and develo
95、pment.The services sector today generates more jobs(50percent share of employment worldwide)and output(67percent share of global GDP)than agriculture and industry combinedand is increasingly doing so in economies at earlier stages of development.Services trade and related policies are key to harness
96、ing the promise of services-led development.Fuelled by advances in information and communications technologies(ICT),global commercial services exports almost tripled between 2005 and 2022,a period that saw marked changes in the composition of services trade,with exports of digitally delivered servic
97、es increasing almost four-fold.During this period,developing economies accounted for an increasing share of less traditional services exports.The expansion of developing economy exports is increasingly tied to services supplied across borders through digital means.Expanding services trade is also de
98、livering major gains in inclusiveness for female and young workers and entrepreneurs,as well as for micro,small and medium-sized enterprises.Beyond their rising importance as final exports,services also play a critical trade facilitating role in the functioning of regional and global value chains,wi
99、th trade in intermediate services(i.e.inputs in the production of other goods and services)valued at US$3.95 trillionmore than double that of final services exports.Highlighting what has come to be called the servicification of the world economy,services account today for 50percent of global trade i
100、n value-added terms,compared to 16percent for agriculture and 34percent for industry.The share of services content in total exports has increased the most in non-OECD members since 2005,recalling the significant development dividends at play in the sector.While services trade was hit hard by the COV
101、ID-19 pandemic,digitally delivered services have led the recovery in global services trade and proved fundamental to heighted economic resilience.Still,despite the continued rise of cross-border supply,services supplied through a commercial presence continue to predominate,recalling the central impo
102、rtance of facilitating investment and improving business climates,including through binding commitments in trade agreements.14Trade in services for development1.The worldwide shift towards servicesThe contribution of services in economies worldwide has increased markedly over time.The services secto
103、rs share of global GDP increased from 53percent to 67percent between 1970 and 2021.The increasing contribution of services to GDP has occurred in economies at different levels of development and has been accompanied by a marked decline in the relative share of agriculture (see Figure2).The shift tow
104、ards services has been pronounced in developing economies.In much of the developing world,growth in services output has outpaced growth in industry and agriculture.On the basis of World Bank income groups,the shift towards services has been most prominent for upper middle-income and high-income econ
105、omies,whose shares of services of GDP grew from 40percent to 56percent and from 59per cent to 75percent,respectively,between 1970 and 2021.The GDP share of services in low-income economies also increased over this period,from 36percent to 42percent.This growth,however,was less pronounced than in the
106、 rest of the developing economies,and was largely due to the more significant role agriculture plays in the worlds poorest countries.Growth in services output has outpaced growth in industry and agriculture.“Services sectors share of global GDP 2021197067%53%15The future of trade lies in services:ke
107、y trendsFigure 2.Share of GDP by sector,world and World Bank income groups,1970-2021(As a share of the respective GDP,in per cent)WORLDLOW-INCOME ECONOMIESUPPER MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIESLOWER MIDDLE-INCOMEHIGH-INCOME ECONOMIESSource:UNCTADstat database,available at https:/unctadstat.unctad.org/wds.Est
108、imates for 2021 based on the World Banks World Development Indicators database,available at https:/databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.020406080470369258120
109、02200320042005200620072008200920000204060804703692580420052006200720082009200002
110、0406080470369258042005200620072008200920000204060804703619
111、870369200020004200520062007200820092000020406080470369258042005200620
112、0720082009200001920202021AgricultureIndustryServices16Trade in services for developmentServices today generate 75percent of GDP and of employment in most developed economies.In both developing and developed economies,services now account for a greater share of GDP th
113、an either agriculture or industry.While the share of agriculture in GDP has long been in decline globally,the relative contribution of industry has also been declining in many economies.Economies at all levels of development are generally specializing less in industrial activitythe manufacturing sec
114、tor also employs fewer workers following the rapid spread of labour-saving technologies.1 Not surprisingly,the point at which industry peaks in terms of output and employment is occurring at earlier stages of economic development in a number of economies,prompting concerns of“premature de-industrial
115、ization”.2 In a similar fashion,the services sector is driving labour market outcomesand today generates more jobs than any other sector and at earlier stages of development.3 Data from the International Labour Organization(ILO)show that services and agriculture each accounted for 40percent of total
116、 global employment in 2000.4 By 2021,however,50percent of the worlds workforce was employed in services,but the share of agriculture had dropped to only 27percent.The services sector has grown to become the main source of employment in both high-income economies(75percent of total employment in 2021
117、)and also upper middle-income economies(53percent;see Figure3).Meanwhile,agriculture still accounts for the highest proportion of employment in low-income economies,at 58percent.Yet,services-sector employment grew significantly in low-income economies,from 21percent in 1995 to 31percent in 2021.Figu
118、re3 shows that,similar to the trend in the share of GDP,the share of services in total employment has grown significantly across all income groups since 1995.Figure 3.Share of employment by sector,world and World Bank income groups,1995-2021(As a share of total employment,in per cent)38%42%48%50%65%
119、70%73%75%34%40%50%53%29%33%38%40%21%23%29%31%21%21%23%23%29%26%23%22%23%24%27%26%16%18%22%23%9%9%10%11%41%36%29%27%7%5%4%3%43%36%24%21%55%49%40%37%70%69%61%58%5202005200052000520152021Uppermiddle-incomeLowermiddle-incomeLow incomeHigh incomeWorl
120、dSource:ILO World Employment and Social Outlook(WESO)Data Finder,available at https:/www.ilo.org/wesodata.AgricultureIndustryServices17The future of trade lies in services:key trends(a)The inclusive dimension of services:womens empowerment,youth and MSMEsWomens empowermentServices have a positive ge
121、nder dimension and play an important role in womens empowerment.In 2021,59percent of employed women globally worked in the services sector,compared to only 44percent in 2000(see Figure4).In contrast,services accounted for 45percent of total male employment in 2021.The share of women employed in the
122、services sector has increased in all economies since 2000.Services now account for 87percent of total female employment in high-income countries(up from 80percent in 2000),62 per cent in upper middle-income countries(up from 40 per cent),43 per cent in lower middle-income countries(up from 29 per ce
123、nt),and 30percent in low-income countries(up from 19percent).Women-led firms have more success in the services sectorin particular for services delivered remotely over digital platforms(Sauv,2020).This suggests that some gender-specific barriers to female entrepreneurship may prove less onerous than
124、 in industry,not least in light of the smaller average size and less capital-intensive nature of service exporting firms.Figure 4.Share of female employment by sector,world and World Bank income groups,2000 and 2021(As a share of total female employment,in per cent)Uppermiddle-incomeLowermiddle-inco
125、meLow incomeHigh incomeWorld44%59%80%87%40%62%29%43%19%30%17%16%16%11%23%20%12%15%6%8%39%25%5%2%37%18%59%42%75%62%200020200202002021Source:ILO World Employment and Social Outlook(WESO)Data Finder,available at https:/www.ilo.org/wesodata.AgricultureIndustryServices18Trade in ser
126、vices for developmentIn 2021,three in every five employed women worked in the services sector.“19The future of trade lies in services:key trends45%29%26%AgricultureIndustryServicesAmong firms that export,the proportion of enterprises owned by women in the services sector is significantly greater tha
127、n in industry,even though the proportion of exporting firms that are led by men is higher in both sectors.YouthThe services sector has also become an increasingly important source of employment for younger workers and entrepreneurs in developing economies.Across a range of economies,the services sec
128、tor accounted for 45 per cent of youth employment in 2021(see Figure 5).For example,in Albania,the service sectors share of youth employment grew from 35 per cent in 2010 to 56 per cent in 2020.In Guatemala,such a share rose from 45 per cent to 54 per cent over the same period.Among exporting firms,
129、the proportion that are led by youth is once again much greater in services than in industry and for much the same reasons found to apply to female-owned or led firms(ITC,2022).Micro,small and medium-sized enterprisesFurther underscoring its contribution to economic and social inclusion,the services
130、 sector accounts for the largest number of firms,particularly micro,small and medium-sized enterprises(MSMEs).The International Trade Centre(ITC,2022)estimates that nine out of ten services enterprises globally employ fewer than 100 employees.Figure 5.Youth employment in selected developing economie
131、s,2021Source:ILO YouthSTATS database,available at https:/ilostat.ilo.org/resources/concepts-and-definitions/description-youth-labour-market-statistics.Note:Data on 32 developing economies for 2021 or the most recent year available.Youth here refers to people aged between 15 and 29.“Across a range of
132、 economies,the services sector accounted for 45%of youth employment in 2021.”AgricultureIndustryServices20Trade in services for development2.Services-led pathways to growth and developmentMany services have long been portrayed as non-tradable activities characterized by low productivity and wages,re
133、sponding primarily to domestic demand and offering less desirable growth and development paths relative to manufacturing.5 The economic development gains associated with the export-oriented,manufacturing-led development,in East Asia reinforced the belief that the pathway to sustained growth for lowe
134、r-income economies necessarily lay with manufacturing.However,the trajectory of the structural transformation seen in recent decades in developing economies has challenged these long-held perceptions of services pessimism(see Nayyar et al.,2021).The structural changes have vastly expanded job opport
135、unities and reduced cross-sectoral productivity gaps both within and across economies.Services are today seen as central determinants of productivity,competitiveness and rising living standards.The ability to supply,access and export efficient,affordable and innovative services has become central to
136、 the realization of development strategies.As services become easier to trade across borders,more technologically intensive and subject to growing economies of scale,the idea that productivity gains stem chiefly from manufacturing and that expansion of the services sector can only come at the expens
137、e of overall growth has lost considerable ground(see Nayyar and Cruz,2019).The gains observed in services-sector productivity reflect the fact that a growing number of services sectors display features similar to those driving productivity growth in manufacturing not least as a result of the opportu
138、nities offered by ICT.Digitalization favours economies of scale as the range of services become more easily storable and tradable,lessening the need for simultaneity in production and consumption and vastly expanding the range of markets that can be reached through remote means.A growing body of evi
139、dence has in recent years documented how services offer a growth path that complements activity in agriculture and industry sectors.The growing contribution of services to economic transformation is attributed,among other factors,to their increasing tradability and to the greater contestability of s
140、ervices markets.6 The internationalization of services affords greater opportunities to specialize,exploit comparative advantages and export.However,the improved services sector performance associated with heightened market contestability,much of it pursued via unilateral pro-competitive reforms,has
141、 also been found to boost productivity in non-services sectors of the economy.7 Two other growth-inducing features of manufacturing were its innovation dynamics,through capital accumulation impacting labour productivity,and the spillover effects associated with cross-sectoral linkages.Both are attri
142、butes that are increasingly seen to operate in services.ICT applications across a range of services,from transport and logistics to professional services,have seen sustained product and process innovation fuel important gains in labour productivity(Nayyar et al.,2021).Services are also increasingly
143、linked to other sectors,expanding productivity by creating economy-wide spillovers.This is illustrated by the central intermediation role services perform as inputs in the production and export of goods and other services.Still,while labour productivity in services has grown and reduced the gap with
144、 manufacturing,significant cross-sectoral and cross-country variance remains.The extent to which sectors share features associated with economies of scale,trade intensity,spillovers and innovation varies greatly.Some services sectors,such as financial and ICT services,have higher total factor produc
145、tivity than manufacturing in low-and middle-income economies;while others,such as hospitality,have lower productivity than manufacturing.In leveraging services for gains in employment and productivity,recent work at the World Bank has drawn attention to the critical importance of four major policy a
146、reas(Nayyar et al.,2021):21The future of trade lies in services:key trends expanding services trade;fostering technology adoption;training workers to upgrade skills;targeting services that provide benefits to the wider economy for public support.How to harness gains in economic development by expand
147、ing services trade is to be seen in this broader context,where structural shifts towards services provide trade opportunitiesbut simultaneouslyalso where government policies on services trade are key to spurring services-led growth and development by helping to foster economy-wide gains in efficienc
148、y and competitiveness.The global shift towards services has a trade corollary.Services now account for a significant share of world trade and investment,as reflected in balance of payments(BOP)statistics.However,their greaterand arguably more importantinfluence stems from the central role services p
149、lay in cross-border production networks.Developing economies share of global commercial services exports22%Share of commercial services in global trade in 2022300%250%Growth in commercial services exports,2005-2022Least-developed economiesDeveloping economies202233.5%200523.5%up from3.Increasing imp
150、ortance of services in world trade Services had long been the most dynamic component of world trade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.Measured on a BOP basis,trade in commercial services8 expanded at a faster pace than trade in goods between 2011 and 2019.9 The share of commercial services in global tr
151、ade flows stood at over 22percent in 2022,down from 25percent in 2019,prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.Since 2005,global commercial service exports have increased by almost 170 per cent(see Figure6).The growth rate of commercial services exports has been stronger in developing economies and least-deve
152、loped economies(see Figure7).Between 2005 and 2022,commercial services exports from least-developed economies grew well over 300 per cent,while those of other developing economies grew more than 250 per cent.(a)Trade in commercial services forms a large and growing share of world tradeAs a result,th
153、e share of developing economies in global commercial services exports has increased markedlyfrom 23.5percent in 2005 to 33.5percent in 2022.Despite its impressive growth,however,the relative share of services exports for least-developed economies remains limited,at less than 1percent of global expor
154、tsa level that has further regressed following the COVID-19 pandemic.22Trade in services for developmentFigure 6.Growth in world exports of goods and commercial services,2005-2022(Index 2005=100)Source:WTO Stats,available at https:/stats.wto.org,and WTO estimates.Figure 7.Growth in exports of commer
155、cial services,by groups of economies,2005-2022(Index 2005=100)Source:WTO Stats,available at https:/stats.wto.org,and WTO estimates.200520000Commercial servicesGoods200520000350400450Rest of the worldOther developing economiesLeast-developed economiesFrom 2
156、005 to 2022,the share of global commercial services exports of Africa,Europe,Latin America and the Caribbean,and North America all declined,while those of Asia(from 19.5percent to 24.2percent)and the Middle East(2.5percent to 5.4percent)increased.China and India doubled their share of global commerc
157、ial services exports from 2005 to 2022,from 3.0percent to 5.4percent,and from 2.0percent to 4.4percent,respectively.With regard to global commercial services imports,the shares of Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,and the Middle East increased,while those of Africa,Europe and North America declin
158、ed.The expansion of trade in commercial services was fuelled by advances in ICT,perhaps best exemplified by the global expansion of the Internet,which has boosted opportunities for the remote supply of services(including across borders),such as professional,business,audiovisual,education,distributio
159、n,financial and health-related services.23The future of trade lies in services:key trendsGrowth of exports of other commercial servicesTrade has grown more rapidly in less traditional sectors such as ICT services when compared to transport,travel and goods-related services(see Figure8).BOP statistic
160、s reveal that these other commercial services10,which include many digitally delivered services,have expanded at a much faster rate between 2005 and 2022 than more traditional sectors such as transport(6percent)and travel(3percent),which were greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.Within other co
161、mmercial services,telecommunications,computer and information services had the fastest annual growth from 2005 to 2022(10percent),followed by personal,cultural and recreational services(7percent)and other business services(7percent).Figure8 also contrasts the services trade growth across different e
162、conomies and underscores that the expansion of developing economy exports is increasingly tied to less traditional services that can be more readily supplied across borders through digital means.Least-developed economies experienced strong growth in more traditional sectors such as transport(14perce
163、nt)and construction services(11percent),as well as in personal,cultural and recreational services(23percent)and telecommunications,computer and information services(18percent).Figure 8.Average annual growth rate of exports in selected services sectors,by groups of economies,2005-2022 Other commercia
164、l services(subsectors)-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%SectorsTotal commercial servicesTransportTravelGoods-related servicesOther commercial servicesPersonal,cultural&recreationalOther business servicesTelecom.,computer&information servicesCharges for the use of intellectual propertyFinancialInsurance&pensionCons
165、tructionWorldLeast-developed economiesOther developing economiesSource:WTO Stats,available at https:/stats.wto.org,and WTO estimates.24Trade in services for developmentThe growth of sectors such as telecommunications,computer and information services have been particularly strong in developing econo
166、mies in recent years.For instance,computer services exports in Pakistan grew by 14percent in 2022,following a 45percent rise in 2021,and increased on average by 31percent in Bangladesh from 2019 to 2022.The experience of India and the Philippines as global leaders of trade in computer services and i
167、n business process outsourcing services illustrates the growth potential of trade in non-traditional services,as well as the benefits for female employment(see Box1).Growth in computer services exports20212019-2022+45%+31%BangladeshPakistanThe growth of developing economy exports is increasingly in
168、services supplied digitally.“25The future of trade lies in services:key trendsExport growth in less traditional services has helped to diversify the export baskets of many developing economies.Figure9 shows that,for a number of developing economies,ICT,finance and other business services,which are p
169、redominantly exported digitally,accounted for over 15percent of total exports of goods and services in 2022 as well as before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019.Those services featured prominently in the total exports of developing economies before,as well as during,the pandemic(7 per cent of total expor
170、ts of goods and services in 2022),which,in certain cases,transformed export profiles,notably by lessening the share of tourism-related services.Figure 9.Share of telecommunication,computer and information services,other business services,and finance,2019 and 2022(Top 10 WTO members,in per cent)Sourc
171、e:WTO Stats,available at https:/stats.wto.org,and WTO estimates.Note:European Union counted as one.*Data from 2021.00IsraelUnited KingdomSeychellesIndiaNepalGhanaPhillipinesCosta RicaDominicaSingapore32.829.627.426.426.225.725.125.122.916.62030405060Dominica*SamoaIsraelUnited K
172、ingdomPhilippinesIndiaTongaAfghanistan*GhanaCosta Rica58.647.935.329.729.328.628.426.925.725.326Trade in services for developmentBox 1.Computer services and business process outsourcing:India and the PhilippinesIndia is deeply integrated into the global value chains(GVCs)of the software industry.Sta
173、rting in the 1990s,it became a leading destination for multinational corporations to outsource their labour-intensive software and business process outsourcing(BPO)services.The export of computer-related services has significantly contributed to Indias economic growth.Similarly,the Philippines has b
174、ecome a global leader in BPO and is now considered the call centre capital of the world.The country specializes in outsourcing customer services and back-office services,such as call centre activities,computer-related services,medical transcription and animated films and cartoon productions,mainly t
175、o overseas corporations.Job creationServices value chains are a major contributor to economic growth and sources of foreign exchange for both countries.In India,no other industry has generated as many well-paid jobs over the past decade as the IT industry.Similarly,the IT and business process manage
176、ment sector in the Philippines is the largest employment generator.In 2021,it created 1.23million direct jobs and 4.08million indirect jobs and generated US$24.7 billion in revenues.Womens empowermentThe contribution of BPO services goes beyond growth and employment.They also make important contribu
177、tions to skills upgrading,higher education attainment and social inclusionboosting the participation of women in the workforce.In the Philippines,approximately 54 percent of the BPO sectors workforce are women.Call centres are the largest employers in the BPO sector and the majority of the workforce
178、 are also women(55percent).In India,34percent of the IT workforce are women.Female workforce participation in the BPO industry is much higher than the national average,which is 46percent in the Philippines and 21percent in India.Government interventionThe two countries boom in BPO services exports i
179、s mostly due to comparative advantages and the implementation of government initiatives and policies that created an enabling environment for BPO companies.Both India and the Philippines have a large,young workforce with strong English language capabilities and familiarity with digital and distance
180、communicationmainly facilitated by the mass emigration Indian and Filipino workers.The Indian diaspora played an important role in shaping policies in the IT sector in India.The government,for example,created bilateral programmes for expatriates to connect with the IT sector in India through several
181、 channels to promote knowledge transfers,consultancies,the creation of alumni networks for government-funded institutions in the sector,honorary fellowships at Indian universities,and government advisory panels with the participation of non-resident Indian IT professionals.Government interventions p
182、layed an important role in helping develop the sector and attracting foreign investment.For instance,liberalization of the telecommunication sector in the 1990s in both countries helped foster the digital infrastructure needed for the BPO sector industry to flourish.In addition,both countries implem
183、ented intellectual property rights legislation and cybercrime regulations.Government incentives in the form of duty-free imports for equipment and supplies,tax exemptions,100percent foreign ownership,and industrial parks,as well as reforms that facilitated business operations,such as one-stop-shop s
184、ervices for business registration,all contributed to strengthening both countries comparative advantage in the sector.Future investmentTo keep pace with rapidly changing technology and still remain competitive and progress up the value chain,India and the Philippines will need to continually upskill
185、 and reskill their workforces and invest in the development of their domestic services sectorsparticularly in terms of R&D.An important concern for both countries is that their participation 27The future of trade lies in services:key trendsin services GVCs arguably still involves a too high share of
186、 largely routine low value-adding tasks.BPO firms in the Philippines are now integrating cloud technology and robotic automation into processes and applications,which is helping to increase productivity and business model sophistication.India and the Philippines have become global leaders in compute
187、r services and business process outsourcing.“These investments are supporting BPO firms in the Philippines to move towards more specialized and knowledge-based BPOs to cover fraud analytics,data integration,project management,R&D,mergers and acquisitions valuation and product profitability analyses.
188、Source:Nano and Stolzenburg(2021).28Trade in services for development Structure of commercial services tradeReflecting differing cross-sectoral trajectories,the structure of trade in commercial services has changed significantly at the global level since the COVID-19 pandemic.The share of travel and
189、 transport services in world services trade has declined markedly,while that of services that can be more readily supplied electronically has increased.Indeed,the share of other commercial services in global commercial services exports increased steadily from 48percent in 2005 to 56percent in 2019,a
190、nd then rose to 66percent in 2021,falling back to 59percent in 2022,reflecting a COVID-induced boost and the relative contraction of other sectors due to pandemic-related restrictions(see Figure10).Meanwhile,the aggregate share of travel,transport and goods-related services dropped from 52percent to
191、 41per cent between 2005 and 2022.Other commercial servicesTransportGoods-related servicesTravel0%20%40%60%80%100%20052006200720082009200000222722482622492522502423502520522520527566866592445205225518541721Figure
192、 10.Structure of global exports of commercial services,2005-2022Source:WTO Stats,available at https:/stats.wto.org.Note:Goods-related services cover the BOP categories of manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others and maintenance and repair services not included elsewhere.For developi
193、ng and least-developed economies,changes in the composition of services trade have been more pronounced.The share of other commercial services in their total commercial services exports rose from 34percent to 48percent between 2005 and 2022.While the pandemic had a strong impact on the structure of
194、world trade,particularly in light of the steep decline in travel-related receipts,the relative expansion of other commercial services at the expense of more traditional sectors had already started beforehand.Subsectors which have seen the strongest growth in their relative importance for developing
195、economy exports include the telecommunications,computer and information services subsector(from 7percent of total developing country exports of commercial services in 2005 to 14 per cent in 2022),other business services(from 19percent to 23percent),and insurance and pension services(from 1.4percent
196、to 2.6percent).In contrast,the share of transport and travel decreased from 62percent to 49percent between 2005 and 2022,and the pandemic further encouraged this shift.29The future of trade lies in services:key trendsThe composition of services trade has changed across all regions,producing broad-ba
197、sed development gains.The share of other commercial services in total commercial services exports increased in all regions between 2005 and 2022,most notably in Africa(from 21percent to 27percent),Asia(39percent to 61percent),as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean(29percent to 39percent).The
198、share of other commercial services in total imports of commercial services also increased over the same period in each of the above regionsexcept for Africa,where it declined from 40percent to 37percent.As a result,the sector accounts for a smaller share of Africas total services imports than is the
199、 case in other regions.11The qualitative changes at play should not be underestimated.Not only do less traditional services account for a growing share of developing economies services exports,but these economies also account for increasing shares of world exports in these sectors(see Figure 11).Thi
200、s is so even as their share of world trade in traditional services still remains relatively more important(with 49percent of world exports for transport and 45percent for travel in 2022).Developing economies share of world exports of other commercial services grew from 17percent to 28percent between
201、 2005 and 2022.Their share of world exports of business and computer services also increased noticeably.05202530354045505550.6%42.8%35.5%31.6%43.0%17.5%TransportOther business servicesTravelTelecom.,computer&informationConstructionFinancialFigure 11.Developing economies share o
202、f global commercial services exports,by selected main sectors,2005-2022(As a share of global exports for each sector,in per cent)Source:WTO estimates.Note:Developing economies here include least-developed ones.Share of other commercial services exports in developing economies2022200548%34%As a share
203、 of total commercial services exports.30Trade in services for developmentDigitally delivered services exports,2022US$3.82trillion54%share of global services exportsFigure 12.Growth of digitally delivered services exports,2005-2022(Index 2005=100)Source:WTO estimates(WTO,2023).Note:Digitally delivere
204、d services comprise mode1 exports of the following BOP categories:financial services,insurance and pension services,charges for the use of intellectual property not included elsewhere,telecommunication,computer and information services,and selected categories in business services and personal,cultur
205、al and recreational services.2005200Digitally delivered servicesGoodsOther servicesDigitally delivered servicesThe rapid expansion of services trade,especially of less traditional services,mirrors the strong recent growth of digitally delivered services.Services are central to
206、digital tradenot only because a broad range of services can now be supplied online,but also because they provide the basic enabling infrastructure for digital supply,digital transactions and e-commerce more generally.According to the latest WTO(2023)estimates,global exports of digitally delivered se
207、rvices more than tripled since 2005,growing 8.1 per cent per year on average during 2005-2022,outpacing the growth in exports of both goods(5.6percent)and other services(4.2percent)(see Figure12).While tourism and other services requiring cross-border mobility of people fell in this period,digitally
208、 delivered services exports continued to rise,reaching US$3.82 trillion in 2022,and representing a 54percent share of total global services exports.Boosted during the pandemic by remote working,learning and entertaining,the year-on-year growth of digitally delivered services exports was 14percent in
209、 2020 and 15percent in 2021.Digitally delivered services exports in 2022 were recorded 37percent above 2019.31The future of trade lies in services:key trends Box 2.Services trade:four modes of supplyThe WTOs General Agreement on Trade in Services(GATS)categorizes services trade according to four mod
210、es of supply.MODE1:cross-border supplyServices are supplied from the territory of one WTO member into the territory of any other member(e.g.through the Internet).MODE 3:commercial presenceServices are delivered by a supplier of one member through its commercial presence in the territory of any other
211、 member(e.g.establishing a subsidiary in a foreign country to serve the local market).MODE 2:consumption abroadServices are provided in the territory of one member to a consumer of any other member(e.g.tourism).MODE 4:presence of natural personsA supplier of one member provides services through the
212、presence of natural persons in the territory of another member(e.g.consultants).Digitally delivered services exports under mode1(cross-border supply)have grown rapidly across all regions in recent years(see Box2 for information on modes of supply).Europe accounts for more than half of global exports
213、 of digitally delivered services.Asias exports have been rising faster than the rest of the world.In 2022,almost 25percent of digitally delivered services originated from Asia and 19percent from North America.Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Middle East saw an acceleration in growth in
214、 2022.However,growth in Africa and in least-developed economies continued to lag,with Africa holding less than a 1percent share of digitally delivered services exports in 2022.The expansion of services trade in developing economies also encompasses health and education services.While trade in these
215、sectors has offered important export growth opportunitiesincluding,but not exclusively,as a result of digitalizationit has also helped advance a range of non-trade objectives,discussed in Boxes3 and4.32Trade in services for developmentBox3.Developing export-oriented medical servicesTrade in medical
216、services through all four modes of supply was estimated at US$78.6billion in 2019.It has been an important element in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.However,pandemic-related restrictions resulted in a contraction of trade in medical services by 9percent.Trade in medical services holds the p
217、otential to improve the accessibility and quality of domestic healthcare in both exporting and importing countries.For instance,trade in health services can help developing countries address their physical and human capital deficiencies in the healthcare industry.However,the impact of trade on healt
218、h systems will depend on a number of factors,including the structure of the domestic health system and the formulation of accompanying regulations and policies.Trade in medical services was US$78.6 billion in 2019.“33The future of trade lies in services:key trendsMode 1:telemedicineTelemedicine has
219、been growing in recent years,with the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly accelerating this trend.Telemedicine can bring many benefits for developing countries,especially in terms of alleviating human and infrastructure constraints in remote and underserved areas and expanding access to quality medical servic
220、es.The availability of telemedicine services is heavily reliant on the quality of internet connectivity and telecommunications infrastructure.Prospects for cross-border telemedicine may be also hampered by the absence of strong legislative frameworks for telemedicine,digital trade and data protectio
221、n.Mode 2:medical tourismMedical and wellness tourism has expanded significantly in recent decades,propelled by improved telecommunications and transport services.Countries such as Brazil,Cuba,India,Jordan,Malaysia,the Republic of Korea,Singapore,Thailand and the United Arab Emirates have become majo
222、r medical hubs,receiving foreign patients from both developed and developing countries.For example,India has become a popular destination for medical travel,and hosted around 3.5million foreign patients from 2009 to 2019.Foreign patients from developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the Un
223、ited States,as well as from developing countries such as Bangladesh,Nepal and Sri Lanka,go to India in search of less costly,high-quality treatment.Thailand is another popular destination for medical tourism.It has developed a large medical tourism sector geared towards foreign patients,with 61 hosp
224、itals bearing the Gold Seal of Approval from the Joint Commission International,an organization which assesses hospital standards around the world.In 2019,Thailand received 172,265 international medical tourists,according to estimates by its National Statistical Office.In order to mitigate the inter
225、nal brain drain risk caused by the expansion of an industry geared towards attracting international tourists,doctors and nurses are required to serve three years in the public system,including in rural areas,prior to working in private hospitals,in return for public funding of their education.The go
226、vernment has also increased the salaries of physicians,nurses and dentists in all community hospitals to encourage these professionals to stay in the public health sector and maintain the quality of public healthcare services.Mode 3:foreign commercial presenceForeign investment in the health service
227、s sector has the potential to bring medical technologies and innovation through improved access to,and the transfer and the upgrading of,medical technologies,know-how and other strategic assets,while also helping to eliminate pre-existing shortages.This is particularly attractive for developing coun
228、tries with health infrastructures in need of improvement,as it lowers the pressure imposed on limited public finances while improving access to medical services.Increased capacity can also make available inexistent or scarce health services(e.g.specialized treatments),helping to reduce the need to i
229、mport such services.Foreign investment in health services creates spillovers reaching far beyond the health sector,including indirect effects on growth,income and employment as well as in other sectors such as construction,transport,telecommunications and a host of business services.Foreign firms of
230、ten have better access to technologies and strategic assets,often outperforming domestic institutions but also helping improve quality and competition between health services providers.In India,HLL Lifecare Limited(a state-owned enterprise)and the Acumen Fund(a non-profit impact investment fund base
231、d in the United States)created a joint venture to provide high quality and more affordable(30-50percent cheaper)maternity hospital care to low-income and underserved communities in India.The joint venture has expanded to nine hospitals since 2008,becoming the largest chain of maternity hospitals in
232、southern India and providing services to more than 300,000 patients.Source:Gillson and Muramatsu(2020)and World Bank and WTO(2022).Note:For background information on the development of trade in health services in developing countries,see Cattaneo(2009).34Trade in services for developmentBox 4.Digita
233、l trade partnerships in health and education services in AfricaPan-African e-Network ProjectDigital services trade plays an important role in facilitating access to health and education.The Pan-African e-Network Projectlaunched and funded by the Government of India in partnership with the African Un
234、ionhas become one of the largest telemedicine and online education projects in Africa.The projects aim is to connect major universities and centres of excellence in Africa and India,extending quality higher education opportunities for thousands of African students.The project also aims to connect ma
235、jor African hospitals to highly specialized hospitals in India for medical training,online medical consultations and other medical services.The project would connect 53 learning centres,53 remote hospitals,five regional universities and five regional hospitals in Africa to 12 highly specialized hosp
236、itals and seven leading Indian universities.The project is now in its second phase,and 47 African states have already joined the initiative.As part of this phase,the Government of India launched the e-VidyaBharati(tele-education)and e-ArogyaBharati(telemedicine)Network Project(e-VBAB)in October 2019
237、.The project now features an online education portal(www.ilearn.gov.in),providing students and professionals in Africa with access to over 500 courses in a variety of fields,such as engineering,science,pedagogy,mathematics and humanities.The portal also offers 15,000 scholarships to African students
238、 to further their education through undergraduate and postgraduate courses from leading private universities in India.In the medical field,the project offers telemedicine for patients and continuing medical education for African doctors and paramedics.African Digital Health LibraryAnother digital he
239、alth services partnerships in Africa is the initiative between the University of Florida and an online medical library in Zambia.The aim is to disseminate medical information to doctors in Southern Africa.Africa Teledermatology ProjectThe Africa Teledermatology Project provides support to dermatolog
240、y professionals and patients in Africa through a range of services such as:online consultation services;discussions pertaining to diagnosis and management of patients with skin diseases;links to education resources;access to a dermatologic curriculum designed specifically for African sites.African s
241、tates participating in this project include Botswana,Burkina Faso,Eswatini,Lesotho,Malawi and Uganda,and is funded by the American Academy of Dermatology,the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the Commission for Development Studies.Virtual University of UgandaSeveral other online educational initiativ
242、es are underway.The Virtual University of Uganda is the first online university in the country to be licensed by the Uganda National Council for Higher Education.The university offers online education and provides students access to an e-library,which contains more than 50 million open-access items,
243、including resources from internationally renowned universities such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Johns Hopkins University.The university recruits local and international staff and students.Its foreign student body features students from Burundi,the Democratic Republic of the Cong
244、o,Rwanda,Somalia and South Sudan.Source:Africa Teledermatology Project,the Government of India,and iLearn.Note:For background information on the development of trade in health services in developing countries,see Dihel and Goswami(2016).35The future of trade lies in services:key trends(b)Expansion o
245、f jobs linked to services exports The growth of cross-border services trade has resulted in an increasing number of jobs linked to services exports,including in developing economies.These jobs represent a large and rising share of many countries total services jobs and,in some countries,of total emp
246、loyment.In India,South Africa and Trkiye,jobs directly linked to cross-border services exports account for more than 10percent of total services sector jobs.Figure 13 highlights that,for some countries,cross-border services exports account for over 20percent of total jobs(e.g.Ireland,Netherlands,Cos
247、ta Rica).The share of jobs linked to services exports has,overall,tended to increase,outpacing the growth of total jobs in developed and developing economies alike.Figure 13.Proportion of jobs linked to cross-border exports of services(2005 and 2018)Source:OECD Trade in Employment(TiM)Database,avail
248、able at https:/stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIM_2021#.Jobs in service trade exports/total services jobs 2018Jobs in services trade exports/total employment 2005Jobs in service trade exports/total employment 2018 Jobs in services trade exports/total employment 20180%10%20%30%40%0%10%20%30%40
249、%40%ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazilCanadaChinaColombiaCosta RicaCroatiaDenmarkFranceGermanyHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKorea,Rep.MexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTrkiyeUKUS36Trade in services for development(c)Key role
250、 of micro,small and medium-sized enterprises in services tradeMSMEs play a key role in services trade and account for the greater share of total cross-border services exports(67percent)in a range of developed and developing economies(see Figure 14).The WTO(2019)finds that a rise in services trade is
251、 less likely to be biased towards larger firms than is observed for manufacturing trade.Indeed,when total global exports are considered(i.e.goods and services),large enterprises account for the greater part of exports,with the contribution of MSMEs dropping to 38percent.A study by the ITC(2022)finds
252、 that the gap in export propensity between small and large enterprises is much less pronounced in services than in manufacturing28percent of MSMEs in manufacturing export,compared to 77percent of firms with at least 100 workers.This 49percentage point gap is more than twice as large as the 22percent
253、age point gap in services,where 16percent of MSMEs export compared to 38percent of large companies.At the WTO,work carried out within the Informal Group on Micro,Small and Medium-sized Enterprises aims at enhancing the participation of smaller firms in services trade and the inclusion of developing
254、economies in the international trading system(see Box5).2008200%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Share of total goods exportsShare of total service exportsFigure 14.Average share of goods and services exports by MSMEs,selected economies,2008-2020Source:OECD Trade by Enterprise Characterist
255、ics(TEC)database,available at https:/www.oecd.org/sdd/its/trade-by-enterprise-characteristics.htm.Note:MSMEs are here defined as firms with fewer than 250 employees.Selected economies comprise 34 OECD members and 7 non-OECD members.“The WTOs Informal Group on Micro,Small and Medium-sized Enterprises
256、 aims to enhance the participation of smaller firms in services trade and the inclusion of developing economies in the international trading system.”37The future of trade lies in services:key trendsBox 5.WTOs Informal Working Group on Micro,Small and Medium-sized EnterprisesThe Informal Working Grou
257、p on Micro,Small and Medium-sized Enterprises*was established at the end of 2017 and includes 98 WTO members from all regions and levels of development,including four least-developed countries(Afghanistan,The Gambia,Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Myanmar).Today,95percent of companies across the glo
258、be are MSMEs,accounting for 60percent of the worlds total employment.However,MSMEs face a number of obstacles when seeking to participate in international trade.The Group aims to support the internationalization of small firms through soft law and the development of concrete tools.In December 2020,t
259、he Group finalized a package of six recommendations and declarations relating to:transparency;access to information;trade facilitation;MSME participation in regulatory developments;access to finance;cross-border payments.In December2021,it launched the Trade4MSMEs platform(https:/trade4msmes.org).Th
260、e platform aims to support MSMEs and policymakers by bringing trade-related information together in one place and linking to reliable information resources for would-be traders or officials looking to increase their trade policy inclusivity.It features a series of short guides on international trade
261、 to assist MSMEs and policymakers.(d)Transformative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemicThe COVID-19 pandemic caused a steep collapse in cross-border services trade,which further reinforced and accelerated the structural changes already underway,boosting the relative importance of services that can be m
262、ore readily supplied digitally(see Figure15).The drop in services exports in 2020-2021 was significant across all regions,and deeper than for the trade in goods.It was led by declines in travel receipts,first and foremost,but also by a marked contraction in transport services.Not surprisingly,trade
263、under modes2(consumption abroad)and4(movement of natural persons)was most impacted,owing to health-motivated mobility restrictions(WTO,2020a).Digitally deliverable services were less affected by the trade downturn at the height of the pandemic and played a critical mitigating role,as ICT services al
264、lowed economic activities to be sustained,such as through online retailing,in addition to enabling teleworking and online schooling.The pandemic also provided an opportunity to accelerate the adoption of IT solutions and to expand the scale of remotely supplied services.Beyond their lead role in pan
265、demic mitigation,digitally delivered services also led the first phases of recovery in global services trade.As services trade posted a 25percent year-on-year increase in the third quarter of 2021,digitally deliverable services such as computer,financial and business services were the main drivers o
266、f trade growth alongside transport boosted by surging shipping rates.There was rapid growth in computer services exports in both developed and developing economies(e.g.Bangladesh,Ireland,Mauritius,Ukraine,United States).Pakistans ICT services exports also boomed during the pandemic(see Box6).*See ht
267、tps:/www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/msmes_e/msmes_e.htm.38Trade in services for developmentFigure 15.Year-on-year change in global trade in commercial services,by sectorSource:On the basis of estimates from the ITC,the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the WTO.Note:Average of glob
268、al exports and imports.70%54%45%-15%-8%-29%-81%20200009200850%30%10%-10%-30%-50%-70%-90%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Rapi
269、d growth in computer services exports in 2021+68%+42%+29%+51%+63%BangladeshMauritiusUnited StatesIrelandUkraineGreater digital connectivity proved fundamental for resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.The Asian Development Bank(2021a)finds that countries with better ICT infrastructure recorded low
270、er drops in economic activity.At the same time,the pandemic produced a connectivity boost,bringing an estimated additional 782 million people online between 2019 and 2021(ITU,2021a),forming new digital habits and spurring investments in the digital economy.However,the pandemic also exposed significa
271、nt digital divides,both within and across countries,revealing how shortcomings in digital connectivity could exacerbate social inequalities(see WTO,2022a).TravelTransportOther commercial services39The future of trade lies in services:key trendsBox 6.The ICT boom in PakistanSince the onset of the COV
272、ID-19 pandemic,the ICT services exports of Pakistan experienced sustained growth.With social-distancing measures and border closures in place,the demand for digital services surged,propelling ICT services as the top contributor to the economy among all service subsectors.Exports increased in almost
273、all subsectors:software consultancy,call centres and telecommunication services.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic,Pakistans technology ecosystem was buoyant,with a growing number of new startups,support organizations and angel investors.Both the public and private sectors play an important role in s
274、upporting the boom in the tech startup ecosystem,with several accelerator and innovation incubator programmes in place,such as Invest2Innovate and Nest I/O,which have supported over 19 startups.Facebook partnered with the government to launch its first innovation laboratory in April 2019,and Google
275、regularly organizes events in Pakistans major cities.In 2019,Pakistan had the second highest number of tech hubs in South Asiaat 35behind only India,with over 250.Human and physical capital are supporting the growth of the countrys ICT ecosystem.More than 20,000 engineers and IT professionals gradua
276、te in Pakistan each year,mostly of whom can speak English.There is also a growing number of high-quality freelance professionals in the sector.Pakistan has a good digital infrastructure with improved telecommunication services,Internet access,and 14 IT parks available.Such attributes form important
277、drivers of Pakistans business process outsourcing industry.According to the Pakistan Software Houses Association,53.8percent of the ICT sectors revenue in 2019 came from exportsmostly to the United States(52.1percent),the United Arab Emirates(8.8percent)and the United Kingdom(7.0percent).Source:Saez
278、 et al.(2020).40Trade in services for development(e)Trade by mode of supply and the contribution of services supplied through a commercial presenceMode 4Mode 2Mode 1Mode 3Figure 16.World trade in commercial services by mode of supply(2017)Cross-border supply(mode 1)Consumption abroad(mode 2)Commerci
279、al presence in another country(mode 3)Presence of individuals in another country(mode 4)Source:Trade in Services data by Mode of Supply(TiSMoS),WTO Secretariat.While BOP statistics capture the growing importance of cross-border trade in services in modes 1,2 and 4,they still significantly underestim
280、ate global services trade as defined in GATS.Most notably,BOP data generally do not cover the supply of services by foreign-owned companies(mode 3),by far the most economically important mode of service supply.13 When services sold through a foreign suppliers commercial presence are taken into accou
281、nt,the services share of world trade is around 20 percentage points higher than traditionally estimated,representing 43 per cent of total trade in goods and services.14 Figure 16 shows the relative share of each of the four modes of service supply in global services trade.With a value of US$7.8 tril
282、lion,sales through the establishment of foreign-affiliates worldwide(mode 3)dwarf other modes,accounting for 58.9 per cent of global services trade.15 This is more than twice the second most important mode cross-border supply(mode 1,including through electronic means),which accounted for 27.7 per ce
283、nt of the total services trade at latest count.The 2.9 per cent share of trade involving the temporary movement of service suppliers reflects the restrictive policy stance governing mode 4 trade.When measuring trade in services under the four modes of supply,16 the share of developing economies(excl
284、uding least-developed)in global services trade increased by 10 percentage points since 2005,from 14.7 per cent to 25.2 per cent at the latest count.While the share of least-developed economy exports also increased,it only accounted for 0.3 per cent of global services exports and 0.9 per cent of impo
285、rts.With respect to least-developed economies,their services exports have been rising by an annual average of almost 11 per cent since 2005,albeit from a very low base,with growth led by tourism boosted by greater intra-regional arrivals prior to the pandemic.The developing economies impressive trad
286、e performance under this expanded measure of trade in services is largely due to four economies that rank as leading services exporters and importers(China;Hong Kong,China;Singapore;India).A large part of their combined exports occurs through mode 3.For other developing economies,cross-border supply
287、 remains the predominant mode of services exports,slightly ahead of commercial presence(WTO,2019).TiSMoS underscores that mode 4 accounts for a similarly small share of services exports for different groups of WTO members developing and developed economies,as well as least developed.Mode 4 is nevert
288、heless relatively more important for certain sectors.On the basis of the TiSMoS dataset,9.8 per cent of global exports of other business services were supplied under mode 4 in 2017.10.4%58.9%27.7%2.9%41The future of trade lies in services:key trends(f)The role of services in supply chainsFrequently
289、dubbed as the“glue”that enables cross-border production networks,services have played a critical role in enabling the emergence of global and regional value chains.The deployment of these chains has been made possible by improvements in the efficiency,quality and costs of services that enable the co
290、ordination of geographically dispersed yet interlinked production processesfrom transport and logistics to communication and business services.17In addition to linking different production stages across borders,services have also become important inputs at all stages in the production process of goo
291、ds and other services.Services inputs,whether imported or locally produced by foreign or domestically owned enterprises,are increasingly used in the production of manufactured products that are subsequently exported.Services value-added content embodied in exported goods has grown in importance and
292、represents an increasingly significant way for services firms in developing countries to join GVCs and reach international markets.In addition,services increasingly form their own value chains,with fragmentation in the supply of different inputs in different stages and locations(Nano and Stolzenburg
293、,2021).The critical role of services as inputs and in supply chains is reflected in the fact that over two-thirds(69 per cent)of global services trade(on a BOP basis)consists of trade in intermediates,compared to trade in services for final consumption(see Figure17).The COVID-19 pandemic and the res
294、ulting drop in tourism services has increased the relative importance of intermediate services.However,even before the pandemic,trade in intermediate services accounted for over 57 per cent of global services trade,a higher proportion than trade in intermediates plays in manufacturing.Figure 17.Trad
295、e in intermediate and final services,2015-2021US$trillion20200202021Source:WTO estimates(based on the conversion table EBOPS 2010-CPC 2.1-BEC Rev.5).Note:Trade as average of exports and imports.US$3,95 trillionUS$1,79 trillionIntermediate servicesFinal servicesThe role of servi
296、ces in global value chains is also highlighted through data that capture the valued added by a country in the production of any good or service that is then exported.Measuring trade in value-added terms reveals that the role of services in world trade is far more significant than implied by gross fl
297、ows.Indeed,services value-added accounted for 50percent of the value of world trade in goods 42Trade in services for development45%34%21%21%58%21%Figure 18.Structure of world trade,2005 and 2018Source:Trade in Value Added(TiVA)Database,OECD,and WTO Trade in Services annual dataset,available at https
298、:/stats.wto.org.and services in 2018,compared to 16 per cent for agriculture and 34 per cent for industry(see Figure 18).18 In comparison,the share of services value-added stood at 30 per cent in 1980 and at 45 per cent in 2005(Heuser and Mattoo,2017).The rising share of services inputs in total tra
299、de also reflects major structural changes in the fabric of economic activity,with production processes making increasing use of services and manufacturing components.In this so-called servicification of industrial production,manufacturing firms increasingly rely on services,procure services inputsfr
300、om home and abroadand also supply services themselves(e.g.transport,R&D,IT,professional services,repair and maintenance and other after-sales services)(WTO,2020a).Services value-added represents a large and increasing share of total exports,reaching 54 per cent on average for OECD members,and 41 per
301、 cent for non-OECD members in 2018(see Figure 19).However,the share of services content in total exports increased the most in non-OECD members since 2005.200520052018201850%34%16%25%54%21%IN VALUE-ADDED TERMSIN GROSS TERMSAgricultureIndustryServicesServices value-added accounted for over 51 per cen
302、t of Indias total exports in 2018.In the same year,it reached a higher share than the non-OECD average for countries such as the Philippines(50 per cent),Brazil(45 per cent)and Morocco(45 per cent).Figure 19 also shows that services value-added accounted,on average,for 31 per cent of manufacturing e
303、xports for OECD members,and only slightly less for non-OECD members,at 29 per cent.This significant share underscores the importance of efficient and quality services for the productivity of manufacturing activities and their international competitiveness and export 43The future of trade lies in ser
304、vices:key trendsTOTAL EXPORTSMANUFACTURING EXPORTS2005OECDOECDNon-OECDNon-OECD200520018Domestic services-value addedForeign services value-added2%29%3%28%200519%8%201823%6%50%2%6%30%51%3%5%36%Source:Trade in Value Added(TiVA)database,OECD.Note:This includes data from 38 OECD and 28 non-OE
305、CD economies.OECD and non-OECD aggregates include intra-trade flows as domestic ones.Figure 19.Services value-added in total exports and in manufacturing exports,domestic and foreign,2005 and 20180%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%ArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCambodiaCanadaChileChinaColombiaCosta RicaFranceGermanyHK
306、,ChinaIndiaIndonesiaIrelandJapanKorea,Rep.MalaysiaMexicoMoroccoNew ZealandPeruPhilippinesRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth AfricaSpainSwitzerlandThailandTunisiaTrkiyeUKUSViet Nam0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%ArgentinaAustraliaBrazilCambodiaCanadaChileChinaColombiaCosta RicaFranceGermanyHK,ChinaIndiaIn
307、donesiaIrelandJapanKorea,Rep.MalaysiaMexicoMoroccoNew ZealandPeruPhilippinesRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth AfricaSpainSwitzerlandThailandTunisiaTrkiyeUKUSViet NamDomestic services value-added(2018)Foreign services value-added(2018)Total services value-added(2005)Figure 20.Share of services v
308、alue added in manufacturing exports,selected economies,2005 and 2018Source:OECD Trade in Value Added(TiVA)Database.44Trade in services for development0%20%40%60%80%100%ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazilBruneiCambodiaCanadaChileColombiaCosta RicaFranceGermanyHK,ChinaIndiaIndonesiaIrelandItalyJapanKorea,
309、Rep.MalaysiaMexicoMoroccoNew ZealandPeruPhilippinesRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth AfricaSpainSwitzerlandThailandTunisiaTrkiyeUKUSAViet Nam0%20%40%60%80%100%ArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBrazilBruneiCambodiaCanadaChileColombiaCosta RicaFranceGermanyHK,ChinaIndiaIndonesiaIrelandItalyJapanKorea,Rep.
310、MalaysiaMexicoMoroccoNew ZealandPeruPhilippinesRussian Fed.Saudi ArabiaSingaporeSouth AfricaSpainSwitzerlandThailandTunisiaTrkiyeUKUSAViet NamValue addedGrosspotential.The cost and quality of the underlying services affect the performance of the economy as a whole and are essential for connectivity
311、and the competitiveness of goods exports.Looking at selected economies,Figure 20 shows that services value-added represented between 25 per cent to 40 per cent of the content of manufacturing exports for a wide range of economies at different levels of development,and that in many cases a significan
312、t proportion was foreign services value-added.The share of total services value-added The share of total services value added was relatively high for a number of developing economies,including Brazil(36 per cent),Chile(29 per cent),Mexico(37 per cent),South Africa(35 per cent)and Turkey(28 per cent)
313、.For the majority of economies covered in Figure 20,the share of services value-added in manufacturing exports increased between 2005 and 2018,in particular for Peru and Chile.The OECD TiVA database reveals not only the key role of services in manufacturing competitiveness and exports,but also the c
314、ontribution of imported services to such exports.For a number of economies,such as Belgium,Ireland and Morocco,the foreign share of services value-added is greater than the domestic one.Figure 21 underscores that even in economies where services represented a small proportion of total exports in gro
315、ss terms,services value-added often accounted for a significantly larger share of total exports.For example,services accounted for 6 per cent of Mexicos total exports in gross terms in 2018,but the proportion jumped to 45 per cent in value-added terms.Similarly for Argentina,services as a share of t
316、otal exports went from 20 per cent to 48 per cent.Hong Kong,China showed the strongest share of services value-added in total exports at 83 per cent.Looking at trade in value-added terms shows that economies at different levels of development may enjoy comparative advantages in some services even if
317、,in gross terms,they tend to export more goods than services.19 However,TiVA statistics may yet underestimate the share of services in world trade because they do not capture the services value added provided by manufacturing companies.TiVA statistics capture services bought as inputs by enterprises
318、 in other sectors,but manufacturing companies also undertake services activities in-house which are not captured in TiVA statistics as services value added of manufacturing exports.Figure 21.Share of services in total exports,in gross and value-added terms,selected economies,2018Source:OECD Trade in
319、 Value Added(TiVA)Database.45The future of trade lies in services:key trends1 The many reasons for the declining importance of manufacturing for most economies include the fact that manufacturing activities have become more technology,skill and capital intensive and create fewer jobs(Ghani and OConn
320、ell,2014),and demand for services has changed in step with rising incomes and demographic shifts.2 For background information,see Amirapu and Subramanian(2015)and Rodrik(2015).Similar concerns are expressed about the impact widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning technolo
321、gies will have on employment in services(see Baldwin,2019).3 For background information,see Ghani and OConnell(2014).4 See the ILO World Employment and Social Outlook(WESO)Data Finder,available at https:/www.ilo.org/wesodata.5 For an historical context,see Baumol(1967)and Kaldor(1966).6 For backgrou
322、nd information,see Cali et al.(2008),Eichengreen and Gupta(2013),Jensen and Kletzer(2005),Jones and Kierzkowski(1988),Riddle(1986)and Schettkat and Yocarini(2006).7 For background information,see Hoekman and Shepherd(2017)and Nords and Kim(2013).8 Trade in commercial services in the BOP is total ser
323、vices trade minus exports/imports of government services not included elsewhere.9 BOP statistics generally do not cover trade in services through commercial presence(mode3).For more information on the modes of supply,see Box2.10 Other commercial services are total commercial services less the catego
324、ries of travel,transport and goods-related services.Other commercial services include construction,financial services,insurance and pension services,telecommunications,computer and information services,charges for the use of intellectual property not included elsewhere,other business services,and pe
325、rsonal,cultural and recreational services.11 For example,other commercial services amounted to 40.4 per cent of total commercial services imports in the Middle East in 2022,compared to 35.8 per cent in 2005.In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean,the share of other commercial services imports
326、 went from 38.3 per cent in 2005 to 42.3 per cent in 2022.12 From a regional perspective,the share of global exports of other commercial services from Asia and the Middle East increased between 2005 and 2022(from 16.0 per cent to 23.5 per cent and from 2.0 per cent to 3.3 per cent,respectively).The
327、shares of Europe and North America declined between 2005 and 2022 and those of other regions remained broadly unchanged.13 Since a foreign-owned affiliate is resident in the host country,its services sold in the country are not recorded in BOP statistics,which are only concerned with transactions be
328、tween residents and non-residents.14 The WTOs Trade in Services data by Mode of Supply(TiSMoS)provides an aggregate picture of services trade covering the four modes of supply as defined in GATS.It covers 200 individual economies for the period 2005-2017.15 Financial services and distribution servic
329、es together account for around half of this value.16 TiSMoS available at https:/www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/trade_datasets_e.htm#TISMOS.17 For further information,see Daz-Mora et al.(2018),Heuser and Mattoo(2017),Low and Pasadilla(2015)and World Bank(2020a).18 The most recent update of Organi
330、sation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)Trade in Value Added(TiVA)statistics was released in 2021,with coverage up to 2018.19 However,TiVA statistics may yet underestimate the share of services in world trade because they do not capture the services value-added provided by manufacturin
331、g companies.TiVA statistics capture services bought as inputs by enterprises in other sectors,but manufacturing companies also undertake services activities in-house which are not captured in TiVA statistics as services value-added of manufacturing exports.With data for a sample of countries that ar
332、e mostly OECD economies,Miroudot and Cadestin(2017a)find that services inputs account for 37 per cent of the value of manufacturing exports,but this share increases to 53 per cent when adding services activities taking place within manufacturing firms.Endnotes46Trade in services for development2The
333、contribution of services trade policies Key points The high degree of regulatory scrutiny attached to the supply of services,both within and across borders,focuses attention on how the policy choices of governments matter for services trade.Services facilitate market integration by supplying the basic infrastructure for trade.Despite continued efforts to reform,barriers to trade in services remain