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1、Good prospects for Spains manufacturing industry2023Sector ReportManufacturing IndustryHow will higher interest rates impact Spains manufacturing sector in 2023?The shock of bottlenecks on Spanish industryHow rising costs have affected industrySECTOR REPORT Manufacturing Industry 2023The Sector Repo
2、rt is a publication produced by CaixaBank ResearchCaixaBank Research Enric Fernndez Chief Economist Jos Ramn Dez Director of International Economies and Markets Oriol Aspachs Director of the Spanish Economy Sandra Jdar Director of Bank Strategy Javier Ibez and Pedro lvarez Coordinators of the Manufa
3、cturing Industry Sector Report Closing date for this issue:18 May 20232023SummaryQuality means doing it right when no-one is looking.HENRY FORD11HOW WILL HIGHER INTEREST RATES IMPACT SPAINS MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN 2023?We analyse the financial position of Spains different branches of manufacturing i
4、n an attempt to determine to what extent theyre exposed to the tighter financial conditions resulting from the ECBs interest rate hike.22 THE SHOCK OF BOTTLENECKS ON SPANISH INDUSTRYDisruptions in global supply chains from the end of 2020,due to COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine,affected activity in s
5、ome branches of manufacturing in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.02 A YEAR OF GOOD PROSPECTS FOR MANUFACTURING Spains manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems,preventing it from getting back to its pre-pandemic levels.Although the econom
6、ic situation is still highly uncertain,the outlook is somewhat more favourable in 2023.17 HOW RISING COSTS HAVE AFFECTED INDUSTRYRising prices for raw materials and intermediate goods have affected the operating costs of manufacturers,forcing them to pass on part of this increase to their customers.
7、Manufacturing IndustryFinancial conditionsEnergy pricesBottlenecks20224PROJECTIONS FOR SPAINS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRYThe sector has overcome a 2022 that was hard hit by the energy crisis and bottlenecks,preventing it from getting back to its pre-pandemic levels.Nevertheless,we expect a mor
8、e favourable situation in 2023:one of the industrys major growth levers will be the gradual disappearance of bottlenecks,while the main challenge is the tightening of financial conditions.IMPACT OF RISING COSTSOVERCOMING BOTTLENECKSIndustry margins have narrowed due to the sharp rise in costs.Interm
9、ediate costs rose by 25%between 2019 and 2022 while income grew by 21%.Disruptions in global production chains have subsided considerably.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the National Statistics Institute,Bank of Spain,Spanish Tax Authority and New York Fed.RETURN ON SALES INDEX OF PRESS
10、URES ON GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS(ratio of gross profit to income)2019 10%20228%EXPOSURE TO TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONSOn average,manufacturing is not particularly exposed to the tightening of financial conditions.However,in a sector as heterogeneous as manufacturing,some branches will be harder hit by
11、the shock.Debt ratio:ratio of borrowed funds with cost to gross operating profit(GOP)and financial revenue(including dividends).Interest burden:ratio of borrowed funds with cost to gross operating profit(GOP)and financial revenue(including dividends).Manufacturing industry304%6.5%Total economy618%12
12、.2%Debt ratio in 2022Interest burden in 2022Annual GVA growth(*projection)2023*3.5%2024*2.0%20223.8%200222023Tensions appear to have ended since the beginning of 20233.02.11.5-0.1-0.1MORE EXPOSED INDUSTRIESFashion industry(textiles,apparel and footwear)Electrical equipment manufacturersAu
13、xiliary sector to constructionLESS EXPOSED INDUSTRIESAutomotive industryChemical industryTobacco industry1Sector ReportExecutive summarySpains manufacturing industry overcomes the challenges of 2022 with flying colours2023In recent years,manufacturing has been repeatedly weighed down by external fac
14、tors that have characterised the economic scenario,starting with the effects of the COVID-19 crisis,followed by bottlenecks in 2021 and much of 2022,the energy crisis in the wake of the war in Ukraine and,finally,the impact of the ECBs interest rate hike.In fact,2022 was once again a particularly ad
15、verse year for a sector that,nevertheless,not only managed to avoid the worst-case scenario of a slump in activity but also saw dynamic growth continuing in most of its indicators(the sectors GVA grew by 3.8%in the year).Our analysis of the performance of manufacturings different branches shows that
16、 the sector as a whole would have returned to its pre-pandemic levels in 2022 had it not been for the effects of bottlenecks and,above all,higher energy prices.Based on this analysis,the rest of the report attempts to delve deeper into the impact of each of these external factors that are affecting
17、the sector or will affect it in the medium term:namely rising interest rates,supply problems for certain inputs and higher production costs.One of the most decisive factors for the economic scenario in 2023 will be the impact of the ECBs interest rate hike on agents consumption and investment decisi
18、ons.This report devotes a specific article to examining the financial position of the different branches of Spains manufacturing industry in an attempt to determine their exposure to tighter financial conditions.The database of the Central Balance Sheet Data Office,produced by the Bank of Spain,reve
19、als that Spanish industry is still in a healthy financial position compared to the economy as a whole and to other sectors of production.However,there are big differences between the different branches,in particular in the case of the apparel and the leather and footwear industries,both in a worse p
20、osition because of their recent gearing and also because they are in a weaker financial situation than in previous cycles of interest rate hikes.In any case,the rest of the branches are in a strong position,so we expect the impact of interest rate hikes will be contained.Regarding the disruptions in
21、 global supply chains,triggered towards the end of 2020 by the post-pandemic reactivation in demand and further aggravated by the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia,the third article of this report analyses import data by industrial grouping to assess the extent of the impact on
22、Spanish industry.Our analysis highlights manufacturers of computer equipment(with imports falling by as much as 50%in 2022 compared to 2019)and the automotive industry(21%drop in imports)as the worst hit sectors.However,the factors behind these supply disruptions have eased in recent months,especial
23、ly after China opened up again to trade.As a result,in 2023 we expect manufacturing to leave behind one of the main obstacles of recent years and therefore receive an important boost for growth.The last article examines how the higher price of certain key raw materials for the sector have pushed up
24、operating costs for Spains manufacturing industry(+25.4%in 2022 compared to 2019),again due to external factors.This has forced the sector to increase its production prices(19.8%in 2022)in order to offset part of this increase in costs and not compromise economic viability.However,despite offsetting
25、 costs through higher prices,it should be noted that the gross margin for industry narrowed in 2022 compared with the margins recorded in 2019.2Manufacturing IndustryGrowth forecastsA year of good prospects for manufacturing Spains manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the en
26、ergy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials,preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels.In 2023,although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain,the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago:having weathered the more advers
27、e scenarios observed during the winter,the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spains labour market and household consumption.Manufacturing has suffered directly from all the exogenous factors that have impacted both the Spanis
28、h and European economic scenario in recent years:starting with the impact of the COVID crisis in 2020,then bottleneck problems in 2021 and much of 2022,the energy crisis experienced last year and,finally,the tightening of financial conditions caused by the interest rate hikes carried out by the Euro
29、pean Central Bank(ECB).Given such an adverse context,in 2022 the manufacturing sector performed similarly to 2021,avoiding the worst-case scenario of a slump in activity but unable to get back to the levels of activity posted pre-pandemic.Real gross value added(GVA)performed relatively well,up by 3.
30、8%year-on-year although it was still 4.3%below the 2019 level and,when compared to GDP growth for the economy as a whole(+5.5%year-on-year),its notably contained.On the other hand,the labour market was appreciably dynamic,with annual growth of 3.1%(the highest in the sectors historical series)and tu
31、rnover rebounded strongly(+22.3%year-on-year),driven by a big rise in industrial prices(19.8%annually)and the somewhat more contained growth in production(2.4%annually).Exports performed particularly poorly with a drop of 4.9%year-on-year,affected by bottlenecks(the automotive industry,which has bee
32、n particularly hard hit,accounts for a considerable share of the sectors exports).3Sector Report2023However,figures from the start of 2023 continue to suggest that manufacturing is managing to navigate the current complex environment with resilience.Real GVA accelerated its growth in the first quart
33、er of the year,reaching 1.2%quarter-on-quarter,higher than the figure for the second half of 2022.The industrial production index for the first quarter of the year also increased its rate of growth with a 1.9%year-on-year advance,a slight improvement on the increase recorded in the last quarter of 2
34、022.In the same vein,the sectors job creation rate also remained relatively positive with year-on-year growth of 1.5%in April,although these figures were more moderate than the average for 2022.Nevertheless,there are huge differences between the different branches of manufacturing,as explained in mo
35、re detail in the next section of this article.The weakest performance is being posted by the most energy-intensive industries,although the declines in wholesale energy prices observed since December 2022 suggest that industrial activity will become stronger in the coming quarters.Economic activity i
36、ndicators and pricesAnnual changeQuarterly industrial production indexYear-on-year changeSource:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the National Statistics Institute,REE and the Ministry of Inclusion,Social Security and Migration.202220212022 vs.2019GVAIndustrial productionEmploymentTurnoverExport
37、sIndustrial pricesElectricity consumption-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%3.8%2.4%3.1%-4.9%-11.2%22.3%19.7%35%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-30%Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023-5.8%-2.3%-6.3%1.8%3.9%3.9%3.0%1.5%1.6%1.4%1.9%31.6%-27.0%4Which fac
38、tors are weighing heavily on manufacturing?Manufacturing is a highly diverse economic sector.Consequently,the factors that have recently affected its performance the most(bottlenecks and energy prices)have had a very uneven impact on the different branches that make up the industry.We will now exami
39、ne the trends in key economic indicators for those industrial sectors most affected by energy costs and supply shortages in order to assess how these factors are currently affecting the industrys performance and predict the trends that lie ahead in the coming quarters.First,to identify the main bran
40、ches of manufacturing that are most exposed to these two factors,weve used the European Commissions quarterly survey on business sentiment for industry,which includes a section on the elements limiting business activity,and the National Statistics Institutes input-output tables,which provide the rel
41、ative weight of energy within the cost structure of each branch.1Among the branches most affected by bottlenecks are the automotive industry,the paper industry and the manufacture of computers,electrical equipment and metals.In the case of the automotive branch,more than two out of three Spanish com
42、panies reported problems of shortages,particularly the microchip crisis that hit the sector in 2022.As for the paper industry,over 43%of the companies in the sector also reported material shortages in the survey.Among the most energy-intensive industries(which are therefore hardest hit by rising ene
43、rgy costs)are the auxiliary industry to construction(whose energy costs represent nearly 14%of its income)and the manufacture of metals,paper,chemicals,wood and plastic products.2 Finally,there is a group of industries that have not been particularly exposed to either of these two factors,such as ph
44、armaceuticals,textiles and the food industry.1 For more details on the use of input-output tables and the classification of manufacturing branches according to their greater or lesser dependence on energy prices,see the article Rising energy prices:Which sectors are being hit the hardest?in the 2022
45、 Manufacturing Industry Sector Report.2 The s of Spains petroleum refining industry has been excluded from the analysis.Manufacturing Industry5As shown in the charts below,by aggregating the main activity and price indicators for the branches most exposed to bottlenecks,we can see that their level o
46、f activity has improved substantially since mid-2022.Industrial production rose by 7.8%year-on-year in the first quarter,already at a higher level of production than at the beginning of 2021 before the toughest stage of the supply chain disruptions.In the same vein,the income of these industries is
47、growing at a considerable rate(up 19.0%year-on-year),thanks also to them raising their prices.One possible negative aspect is job creation,which has remained stagnant since the beginning of 2021.By aggregating the branches most exposed to higher energy prices we can see that,despite energy prices fa
48、lling again since the end of last year,the activity of energy-intensive industries continues to show signs of cooling down.As a result,their industrial production fell by 5.8%year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.It should also be noted that these branches are currently producing at a level sign
49、ificantly below that of 2021,highlighting the impact caused by higher energy costs.With regard to prices,these have moderated in recent months(down 3.9%between June 2022 and February 2023)although the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2021 is still substantial(+32%).This price hike has help
50、ed to boost income although,given recent declines in production,its still down by 4.5%.Sector Report2023Motor vehicle industryManufacture of metalsManufacture of beveragesManufacture of electrical equipmentFood industryGraphic artsTextile industryManufacture of pharmaceuticalsTransport equipment(not
51、 automotive)Manufacture of computersManufacture of plasticsManufacture of machineryChemical industryRepair and installation of machineryPaper industryMetalsManufacture of furnitureActivities auxiliary to construction Wood industryTotal manufacturing industryShortage of materials1(%of companies withi
52、n each branch)76.136.726.639.311.925.18.610.633.240.418.219.315.833.643.112.04.517.623.426.4Energy intensity2(%of income of each branch)1.22.2-2.32.22.61.82.20.81.04.20.87.41.47.38.42.413.85.33.5Exposure of industrial branches to energy costs and bottlenecksNotes:(1)European Commission survey on fac
53、tors limiting production for the manufacturing sector in Spain.(2)Expenditure on electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning,according to the input-output tables for 2016.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the European Commission and National Statistics Institute.Industrial branches particu
54、larly exposed to bottlenecks Energy-intensive industries6Manufacturing IndustryIndustry most exposed to bottlenecksIndustry most exposed to energyIndustry least exposed to shocksJan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-2309590Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-
55、21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23145 135 125 115 105 95 85Manufacturing production*Benchmark(100=January 2021)Turnover of the manufacturing sector Benchmark(100=January 2021)Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23Jan-21Mar-21M
56、ay-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-235562101100Industrial production pricesBenchmark(100=January 2021)Number of workers registered with Social SecurityBenchmark(100=January 2021)Indicators for activity and prices in the ma
57、nufacturing sector Notes:NACE 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products has been excluded from the analysis so as not to alter the conclusions.*A two-month moving average is applied to remove volatility from the industrial production index.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the
58、 National Statistics Institute and the Ministry of Inclusion,Social Security and Migration.In conclusion,we can see that bottlenecks have stopped weighing so heavily on industrys performance for a few months now,confirming that manufacturing has room to grow in 2023.On the other hand,the impact of r
59、ising energy costs is still being felt.Despite the drop in wholesale energy prices since December,the lag with which these changes are passed on to consumers because,for example,they have annual contracts,means that the more energy-intensive industries are still facing substantially higher costs.How
60、ever,once the lower prices definitively reduce industrys energy costs,the performance observed of branches less exposed to the energy shock leads us to believe that the activity of the more energy-intensive branches will rebound strongly.33 The aggregate of industries less exposed to shocks recorded
61、 an increase in industrial production of 3.7%year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023 and has accumulated growth of 13.6%since January 2021.7Sector Report2023Industrial activity will become more dynamic in 2023 although the situation is still complexFor 2023,the scenario remains subject to enormous
62、 uncertainty but the outlook is now somewhat more favourable as the factors that have been hampering industrial activity in recent months are beginning to show signs of abating.According to our analysis,the easing of the impact produced by bottlenecks will provide a growth lever for the sector over
63、the course of the year,while we expect energy cost pressures to moderate and help activity to become more dynamic.However,there are still some factors that could limit growth in 2023.In particular,the tightening of financial conditions could act as a brake on such a capital-intensive sector as manuf
64、acturing.In this regard,according to the European Commissions business sentiment survey,financial factors are beginning to weigh heavily on an ever-larger percentage of companies.Looking at the results for the first quarter of 2023,7.5%of all companies in the sector reported that the financial envir
65、onment was a limiting factor for their activity,a somewhat higher proportion than the historical average and the average for the euro area as a whole.Although the interest rate hikes planned and carried out by the ECB will have a negative impact on industrys performance throughout 2023,it should be
66、noted that the sectors level of debt and interest burden are relatively low,especially compared to other branches of production in the Spanish economy.4 Furthermore,no major imbalances can be observed regarding the rest of the factors highlighted in the survey:labour shortages dont appear to be a li
67、miting factor in the short term(only 5%of companies in the sector report problems in this area,well below the European average),demand is within its historical range and,as previously mentioned,the shortages of materials continue to lessen.4 For a more detailed analysis of the impact of interest rat
68、e hikes by industrial branch,see the article How will rising interest rates affect Spains manufacturing sector in 2023?in this Sector Report.8Manufacturing IndustryOn balance,we believe that the drivers of manufacturing activity(the easing of bottlenecks and falling energy prices)will outweigh the n
69、egative factors(tightening of financial conditions).We therefore expect the sectors GVA to return to its historically dynamic growth,with rates of around 3.5%in 2023(this year we expect it to return to the sectors pre-pandemic levels of activity)and 2.0%in 2024.We believe that the drivers of manufac
70、turing activity(the easing of bottlenecks and falling energy prices)will outweigh the negative factors(tightening of financial conditions)Limiting factors for manufacturers production302520151050Historical range percentile 5-95 Jan-23Jul-22Oct-22Note:Data adjusted for seasonal effects.Source:CaixaBa
71、nk Research,based on the survey by the European Commission.50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0Shortages of materials or equipment%of companiesEuro area Spain70605040302010Demand%of companiesEuro area SpainFinancial factors%of companies876543210Euro area SpainLabour shortages%of companiesEuro area Spain9S
72、ector Report2023-0.3-1.6-1.02.12.34.65.70.58.93.83.52.0-1.1-15.4-5.820000022202320241050-5-10-15-20Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the National Statistics Institute.GVA manufacturing industry Annual change(%)Regarding medium and long-term expe
73、ctations,it should be noted that the sector will continue to be supported by new industrial policy measures.Firstly,the end of 2022 saw the approval of Spains Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation(PERTE in Spanish)for industrial decarbonisation,which aims to decarbonise producti
74、on processes,improve energy efficiency and promote the use of renewable energy,as well as increase the sectors competitiveness and the countrys energy security,among other goals,these being achieved via four transformative measures.The first of these measures,namely aid for comprehensive actions to
75、decarbonise the sector,would attract most of the funds(see the chart below).This measure focuses on decarbonising energy sources(electrification of processes and incorporation of hydrogen),on improving energy efficiency in industrial processes,on the capture,storage and use of carbon,on reducing the
76、 consumption of natural resources and on an increase in R&D&I to drive this decarbonisation.The rest of these transformative measures include(i)a line of aid for companies participating in the IPCEI(Important Projects of Common European Interest,in this case collaboration between Member states regar
77、ding the use of hydrogen from renewable sources);(ii)the development of a fund to support carbon offset contracts(to eliminate the uncertainty associated with the future price of greenhouse gas emission quotas),and(iii)a line of support to develop new highly efficient and decarbonised facilities.Thi
78、s is the fourth PERTE in terms of it volume of funds,up to 3.1 billion EUR,after the semiconductor PERTE(12.25 billion EUR),the renewable energy PERTE(10.475 billion EUR)and the electric vehicle PERTE(4.295 billion EUR).5 5 These figures are included in the Draft Addendum to Spains Recovery,Transfor
79、mation and Resilience Plan approved at the end of 2022.10Manufacturing IndustryAid for comprehensive actions to decarbonise the sectorLine of aid for manufacturers participating in the IPCEIStudy and evaluation to develop a fund to support carbon offset contracts and the implementation of a pilot pr
80、ojectLine of support to develop new highly efficient and decarbonised facilitiesSource:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Ministry of Industry.Transformative measures in the decarbonisation PERTE Million EURLoan 1,500Subsidy 800Subsidy 450Subsidy 100%Subsidy 150%Loan 100%Secondly,the European
81、 Commission has launched the Green Deal Industrial Plan in response to the new US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),under which the US government has proposed a series of economic incentives for industry to relocate to US soil.The European plan redirects the common funds mobilised in recent years towards
82、 these new goals:two regulatory proposals(one regarding net zero emission industry and the other on key raw materials)and the reform,for the time being temporary,of the State aid framework,which allows Member states to match subsidies offered outside the EU in order to stop European industry from re
83、locating outside the EU.66 For a more in-depth analysis of the EUs new industrial plan,see the article The EUs answer to the Inflation Reduction Act”You cannot have dessert until you first eat your vegetables“in the April 2023 Monthly Report.11Sector Report2023The financial position of the manufactu
84、ring industryHow will higher interest rates impact Spains manufacturing sector in 2023?One of the determining factors of the economic scenario is the impact of the ECBs interest rate hikes on the consumption and investment decisions taken by economic agents.In this article,we examine the financial p
85、osition of the different branches of Spains manufacturing industry in an attempt to determine to what extent theyre exposed to this tightening of financial conditions.After more than a decade of low interest rates,in mid-2022 the ECB and major central banks effected a sharp turnaround in monetary po
86、licy with the aim of curbing strong inflationary pressures,mainly through interest rate hikes.This turnaround has led to a significant tightening of financial conditions that has affected all sectors of activity in the Spanish economy,including manufacturing.The financial position of Spains manufact
87、uring industryIn order to determine how the rise in interest rates is affecting Spanish industry,we have analysed the financial position of manufacturing as a whole as well as its main industrial groupings,both from the point of view of debt and also interest burden.77 The debt ratio includes borrow
88、ed funds with costs as a percentage of gross operating profict(GOP)and financial revenue(including dividends).The financial revenue is calculated as the interest paid on borrowed funds,again out of GOP and financial revenue.12Manufacturing IndustrySource:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Ban
89、k of Spains Central Balance Sheet Data Office.2021DebtInterest burdenProfessional act.1,44129.0Hospitality88019.9Construction96319.2Transport and logistics89615.8Real estate activity79914.7Leisure and entertainment44112.4Total economy61812.2Energy supply6059.2Primary sector4738.0Water supply and was
90、te3988.0Administrative act.4926.8Education2566.8Manufacturing industry3046.5Information3045.5Trade2625.2Health act.2025.1Mining industry1943.9Financial sector-Public sector-Interest burden(right scale)Debt(left scale)200020004200520062007200820092000019202
91、02021600 500 400 300 200 100 025 20 15 10 5 0Financial position ratios for manufacturing%of gross operating profit(GOP)+financial revenueThe first conclusion from our analysis reveals that the financial position of the manufacturing sector is healthy when compared to the economy as a whole and,above
92、 all,to other sectors of production,as summarised in the table above.Both the sectors debt ratio and its interest burden were around half those borne by the economy as a whole in 2021(latest available data).Secondly,both ratios have fallen considerably in recent years from the levels reached in prev
93、ious decades(see the chart above),especially in the case of the interest burden,which in 2021 was close to a record low.8 Thirdly,it should be noted that the sector is in a much healthier financial position than in previous cycles of rising interest rates.In the rate hike cycles of 2000 and 2005,its
94、 interest burden exceeded 10%while this even exceeded 17%in the short hike cycle of 2011.In summary,the Bank of Spains data suggest that manufacturing is not excessively exposed to the current tightening of monetary policy and that,in any case,its in a better position than in previous restrictive cy
95、cles.Although manufacturing as a whole is in a healthy financial position and not too exposed to interest rate hikes,some of its branches have a high interest burden8 The latest annual Central Balance Sheet data are for 2021.The Integrated Central Balance Sheet Data Office provides quarterly data fo
96、r the sector aggregate of Industry without refining(which includes mining but excludes the branch of Oil refining),noting that the industrys interest burden and debt ratio continued to moderate in 2022.13Sector Report2023However,the different branches that make up the industry are very heterogeneous
97、.The tables below show the financial position in 2021 of the branches that make up the industry.Of particular note is the manufacture of non-automotive transport(Other transport),which includes the manufacture of ships,locomotives,air and spacecraft and military vehicles,among others.It should be no
98、ted that,historically,the uniqueness of this branchs business and production model has led to high levels of debt and interest burden.Moreover,its financial position ratios are not significantly correlated with economic and financial cycles.Also of note is the high level of debt observed in those in
99、dustries related to fashion;i.e.,the branches of apparel and leather and footwear,in which the interest burden exceeds 10%of the operating profit and financial income,these branches having the most delicate financial position in the manufacturing sector(without the atypical case of the manufacture o
100、f other transports).Among the rest of the branches,the high interest burden observed in 2021 for the wood,paper,metallurgy,auxiliary services to construction and graphic arts industries is particularly significant.This is a group of energy-intensive industries and they were therefore affected by the
101、 energy crisis in 2022.9 Sector2021Weight*Manu.other transport9713.4Apparel5401.2Manu.electrical equipment4893.5Leather and footwear ind.4521.2Auxiliary sector to construction 4154.6Food ind.37014.9Wood and cork ind.3691.6Manufacture beverages3554.1Graphic arts3472.0Paper industry 3323.1Machinery re
102、pairs 3313.4Manufacturing industry305100Textile industry2730.8Manu.furniture2591.6Manu.metal products2529.8Metallurgy2484.3Mputers 2461.3Pharmaceutical ind.2034.6Other manufacturers1901.4Manu.machinery1895.7Manu.rubber and plastic1845.7Motor vehicle ind.18210.2Chemical industry1337.7Tobacco industry
103、1060.8Sector2021Weight*Manu.other transport24.93.4Apparel12.51.2Leather and footwear ind.10.91.2Wood and cork ind.9.91.6Paper industry9.53.1Metallurgy8.44.3Auxiliary sector to construction8.34.6Graphic arts7.82.0Manu.metal products7.59.8Manu.electrical equipment7.33.5Food ind.6.814.9Manufacturing in
104、dustry6.5100Textile industry6.30.8Manu.furniture5.81.6Machinery repairs5.63.4Mputers5.41.3Other manufacturers4.91.4Manufacture beverages4.34.1Manu.machinery4.15.7Manu.rubber and plastic45.7Pharmaceutical industry3.94.6Chemical industry3.67.7Motor vehicle ind.3.110.2Tobacco industry0.10.8Debt ratios
105、Debt over GOP+financial revenueInterest burden Interest over GOP+financial revenueNotes:The analysis excludes the petroleum refining sector.(*)This has been rebalanced to ensure the manufacturing sector totals 100%.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Bank of Spains Central Balance Sheet
106、 Data Office.9 For a detailed analysis of the most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors,see the article Rising energy prices:which sectors are being hit the hardest?in the 2022 Manufacturing Industry Sector Report.14Manufacturing Industry2000212021 vs.2015-2019Leather and foo
107、twear ind.2232037451236.3Apparel459428242239230965540219.9Manu.electrical equipment 3472973089159.4Machinery repairs 2251336331108.5Manufacture of beverages 304282266291.9Pharmaceutical ind.8.5Graphic arts 29628930332828248834747.3Man
108、u.motor vehicles 3.4Manufacturing industry 320.4284.8260.8264.1270.2361.6304.924.8Manu.machinery and equipment 5.0Food industry 384354368111.1Auxiliary services to construction 547443379358353377415-1.5Manu.rubber and plastic 31931951
109、83-4.7Wood and cork ind.487393338362313481368-10.1Mputers 3244289246-21.9Manu.metal products 3022822751-28.8Textile industry 337274278333320394272-36.3Chemical industry 2163178132-36.6Manu.other transport 9991,4861,1689505731,157971-64.5Other manufacturers 3062362642
110、75290326190-84.5Manu.furniture 6244354258-117.6Metallurgy 546357309309543430247-165.4Tobacco industry 5434673691307614105-211.8Paper industry265284292365332127-300.3The trends in the debt ratio of Spanish manufacturers Debt over GOP+financial revenueNote:The petroleum refining industry ha
111、s been excluded from the analysis.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Bank of Spains Central Balance Sheet Data Office.After the manufacture of non-automotive transport,fashion-related industries (apparel and leather and footwear)are the least financially strongFinally,its important to
112、note that,without the food industry and the manufacture of metal products,two sectors with higher debt ratios and interest burdens,the share of the most exposed branches in total industry is relatively small:the five sectors with the highest interest burden account for barely 10%of the manufacturing
113、 production index.The trends in debt levels and interest burden of Spanish industryIn addition to this static picture,in order to understand the financial health of manufacturings different branches its also useful to observe how their level of debt and interest burden have evolved over the past few
114、 years.The following tables show the increase in debt and interest burden since 2015,the branches being ordered in terms of the change between 2021 and the average for the five years prior to the pandemic.15Sector Report2023Once again,the branches that attract most attention are those of apparel and
115、 leather and footwear,which already stood out for their high debt and interest burden ratio in 2021 and,moreover,are the groupings whose financial position has deteriorated the most in recent years.There can be no doubt that this is one of the areas hardest hit by the effects of the pandemic,both in
116、 terms of restrictions on business and the collapse in demand,as well as the change in business model towards multi-channelling.Albeit to a lesser extent,the branches of manufacturing of electrical equipment,machinery repair,beverage manufacture,pharmaceutical industry,graphic arts and automotive in
117、dustry also stand out for their gearing in recent years,all of them posting a larger upturn than the mean for manufacturing as a whole.Apart from the cases of the automotive and pharmaceutical industries,these branches have posted a high debt ratio in recent years which has also continued to grow af
118、ter the pandemic.On the other hand,the paper,tobacco,metallurgy and furniture manufacturing industries,among others,have all reduced their debt in recent years.The first two branches have always had modest debt ratios but metallurgy and furniture manufacturing did have high debt and interest burden
119、ratios in previous years,well above average,so the huge deleveraging effort undertaken by them in a year as complicated as 2021 is particularly positive.2000212021 vs.2015-2019Leather and footwear ind.10.07.86.56.96.912.810.93.3Apparel17.913.27.07.15.214.812.52.4Pharmaceutical
120、ind.3.23.23.22.72.52.53.90.9Paper industry12.210.88.48.07.710.79.50.1Manufacture beverages6.74.64.43.63.65.54.3-0.3Motor vehicle ind.5.14.32.42.62.73.73.1-0.3Manu.rubber and plastic5.84.64.44.14.24.34.0-0.6Manu.machinery6.45.24.44.14.07.54.1-0.7Chemical industry5.74.63.94.13.65.43.6-0.8Manufacturing
121、 industry9.97.776.66.57.76.5-1.0Machinery repairs9.68.86.55.66.16.95.6-1.7Graphic arts11.49.89.19.48.212.07.8-1.8Food ind.13.28.57.57.76.67.36.8-1.9Wood and cork ind.17.713.010.310.47.811.89.9-1.9Manu.metal products12.510.09.08.08.49.87.5-2.1Manu.electrical equipment12.19.67.810.08.411.77.3-2.3Auxil
122、iary to construction19.012.29.08.47.18.48.3-2.8Other manufacturers12.56.97.57.27.67.24.9-3.4Textile industry13.69.38.59.58.08.56.3-3.5Mputers13.58.57.87.47.67.05.4-3.6Manu.other transport24.134.737.527.921.414.724.9-4.2Manu.furniture22.113.49.17.76.57.55.8-6.0Metallurgy17.612.714.813.122.420.28.4-7.
123、7Tobacco industry25.822.119.44.50.20.20.1-14.3The trends in the interest burden of Spains manufacturersInterests over GOP+financial revenueNote:The petroleum refining industry has been excluded from the analysis.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Bank of Spains Central Balance Sheet Da
124、ta Office.16Manufacturing IndustryAs for the interest burden,in addition to the aforementioned cases of fashion-related branches,th Interests over GOP+financial revenue e slight increase recorded in the pharmaceutical industry is also of note,although it should be remembered that its interest burden
125、 is not remarkable when seen within the context of manufacturing as a whole(it barely accounted for 3.9%of GOP plus financial revenue in 2021).What is most striking about the trends in interest burden is that,without the case of the paper industry,most of the branches with an above-average interest
126、burden in 2021 are also those that have reduced this burden the most with respect to previous years.Among these,the greatest reduction in interest repayments occurred in metallurgy and the manufacture of furniture,other transport and computers.Conclusions On balance it seems clear that,on this occas
127、ion,the manufacturing industry as a whole is tackling the challenge of rising interest rates from a position of relative strength.However,an analysis by branch of activity reveals some industries that are more sensitive to higher interest rates because their debt ratios were relatively high just bef
128、ore the ECB hikes,although these branches account for barely 10%of the sectors total.Among these branches,the manufacture of apparel and leather and footwear stand out,both related to the fashion industry which was hit particularly hard by the pandemic and its consequences.The rest of the branches a
129、re in a strong financial position,so they will be less affected by higher interest rates.The metallurgy and furniture manufacturing industries not only stand out for having reduced their debt in recent years but also for the major deleveraging theyve carried out17Sector Report2023Inflation in commod
130、ities and intermediate goodsHow rising costs have affected industryThe inflationary episode currently being experienced by the Spanish economy is due to a major shock in costs.While the focus has been on the rise in prices for energy and agricultural commodities,since mid-2021 a large number of key
131、raw materials and intermediate goods used in a wide range of production processes have also become considerably more expensive.This article shows how the higher price of these products has affected manufacturers operating costs,forcing them to pass on part of this increase to their customers so as n
132、ot to jeopardise their economic viability.Traditionally,manufacturing is the most exposed sector in the current context of rising intermediate costs.According to National Accounts data,the value of intermediate consumption in the manufacturing industry in 2019 was equivalent to 75%of its income.10 I
133、n other words,out of every 100 euros of turnover,companies in this sector use 75 euros to buy the intermediate products they need in order to function.In addition,the increase in prices faced by the industry since mid-2021 has been exceptional.According to data from the Industrial Import Price Index
134、,import prices for energy products doubled compared to 2019.Looking beyond energy,the price of non-energy intermediate goods imports grew by a not inconsiderable 28%compared to 2019.10 In the services sector,this value is 38%and in the primary sector,45%,well below the figure for manufacturing.18Man
135、ufacturing IndustryThe trends in industrys income and costsIn short,the industry had to navigate a particularly adverse scenario in 2022.To assess the impact of more expensive intermediate goods on the sector,we used the sales database of large companies and SMEs of the Spanish Tax Authority(AEAT),w
136、hich provides information on real and nominal income,intermediate consumption and employee remuneration.11,12According to these AEAT data,expenditure on intermediate consumption in the manufacturing industry in 2022 was 25.4%higher than in 2019.This was caused by an increase in domestic purchases(+2
137、6.9%compared to 2019),outpacing the growth seen in imports(+22.2%).This was probably due to two factors:(i)a substitution effect as a result of the increase in price of imported products,which would have encouraged manufacturers to look for domestic alternatives at more moderate prices,thereby boost
138、ing the volume of domestic purchases,and(ii)the impact of higher import prices on the increase in price of domestic intermediate products.Capital goodsIntermediate goodsEnergyIndustrial import price indexBenchmark(100=2015)Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the National Statistics Institut
139、e.25020092020202202022020212022+9%2022 vs.2019+28%2022 vs.2019x22022 vs.2019Spanish manufacturers have had to increase sale prices to offset,on the income side,the pressure of costs11 Apart from these data,the National Statistics Institute uses a range of sources to
140、calculate the National Accounts statistics.12 For our analysis of the manufacturing industry,we have excluded the branch of Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products because the income recorded is lower than expenses(purchases and employee remuneration)in 11 of the 13 years of the available
141、 historical series,suggesting that the variables in this branch are not entirely parables.19Sector Report2023The trend in Spanish industrys earningsTo properly analyse the implications of the current cost environment on manufacturing,its important to calculate the effect of the changes in costs and
142、income in relation to the sectors gross profits.13As can be seen in the next chart,the gross profit of the manufacturing industry as a whole was slightly above its 2019 level,specifically by 1.5%(0.6 EUR billion higher).Although this is a modest increase,given the context of rising costs its a posit
143、ive sign that the industry has managed to sustain its level of profit.The large increase observed in domestic purchases and imports pushed up costs by 89.7 billion EUR.In addition,employee remuneration in the sector rose by 3.4 billion EUR due to a 7.2%increase in the mean remuneration per employee
144、between 2019 and 2022,while the number of jobs remained virtually unchanged(+0.2%).Faced with such appreciable increases in intermediate consumption,the industry has had to adopt a strategy of increasing its sale prices to offset,on the income side and at least in part,the pressure caused by costs.T
145、his is precisely what the data reveal.Between 2019 and 2022,manufacturing income grew by 21.3%thanks to sale prices increasing by 19.8%,and this price increase took place without overly damaging sales volume,which was 1.2%above the level for 2019.Needless to say,in a hypothetical scenario in which p
146、rices had not increased so much,the growth in sales volume would have presumably been considerably higher.13 We have estimated the sectors gross profit as total sales minus intermediate consumption and labour costs.Imports Domestic purchasesIntermediate consumption*40 30 20 10 0-10-20-30Q4 2019Q1 20
147、20Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Volume PriceOperating income*40 30 20 10 0-10-20-30Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Trends in intermediate consumption and in the operating income of manufacturing
148、 industry since 2019*Intermediate consumptionContribution to the change compared to 2019(p.p.)Operating incomeContribution to the change compared to 2019(p.p.)Notes:(*)Excluding the Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products.(*)%change compared to the same period in 2019.Source:CaixaBank Res
149、earch,based on data from the Spanish Tax Authority(AEAT).20Manufacturing IndustryThanks to the pricing strategy outlined previously,the sector managed to mitigate the higher costs(purchases and wages),which rose by 93.1 billion EUR compared to 2019.Specifically,income grew 0.6 billion EUR more than
150、expenditure,mainly because the higher sale prices helped to boost income by 88.5 billion EUR while the higher sales volume generated 5.2 billion EUR.All in all,in a situation in which cumulative inflation since 2019 has been 11.4%,the growth in profit achieved by the manufacturing industry as a whol
151、e over the same period(barely 1.5%)has deteriorated considerably in real terms.The state of health of Spanish industryFinally,in order to assess the sectors economic health,we analysed the industrys business margins.Using AEAT data,we can calculate the ratio of gross profit over operating income(sim
152、ilar to the gross margin),which reflects the proportion of total industry income that is transformed into profit.Spains industrial sector was able to mitigate cost rises and sustain its level of profit,to the detriment of competitiveness15010050-50-020212022Contribution to the growth i
153、n manufacturings gross profit since 2019*Billion EURNote:(*)Excluding the Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Spanish Tax Authority(AEAT).Sales volumeSales priceImport costsDomestic costsWage costsGross profitSale prices+88,500 million
154、EURSales volume+5,200 million EURWage costs+3,400 million EURImports+25,100 million EURDomestic purchases+64,600 million EURGross profit+600 million EUR(+1.5%)21Sector Report2023Our analysis shows that the substantial price increase undertaken by the industry has managed to contain the sectors slump
155、 in margins,although it has fallen far short of fully offsetting the impact of rising costs.Its also evident that the impact of this sharp increase in costs has been spread among buyers,through a substantial rise in sale prices;employees,through the fall in real wages paid in the industry,and shareh
156、olders,through the decline in company profit measured in real terms.As shown in the chart below,the gross margin of the manufacturing industry shrank considerably in 2022,despite the sector raising its sale prices considerably(+19.8%since 2019).Specifically,this stood at 8.0%,1.6 pp lower than in 20
157、19,which in relative terms implies a drop of 16.3%,the lowest since data have been available(since 2010).This drop is due to the fact that the proportion of income allocated to purchasing intermediate goods increased considerably(rising to 82.9%,2.7 p.p.more than in 2019).All in all,the gross margin
158、 of manufacturing industry fell considerably in 2022,with the higher costs being shared among buyers,employees and shareholdersThe gross margin of manufacturing industry*Ratio of gross profit to income(%)12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2000002210%10%10%11%11%11%11%10%10%1
159、0%8%9%9%Note:(*)Excluding the Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the Spanish Tax Authority(AEAT).22Manufacturing IndustryDisruptions in global supply chainsDisruptions in global supply chains,present in markets since the end of 2020 due to
160、 the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic,and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia,affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and,above all,in 2022.In some sectors,the most intense epi
161、sodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis,or even to come to a halt.Logically,those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes,as well as those with greater complexity in their
162、 value chains,suffered the most.The shock of bottlenecks on Spanish industryAccording to data from the quarterly business sentiment survey produced by the European Commission,14 the proportion of companies reporting shortages of materials or equipment stood at 22.0%in the second half of 2021 and 26.
163、4%in 2022.In both cases,these rates are much higher than the historical average(5.3%between 1995 and 2019).So,without any doubt,manufacturing was clearly affected by the disruptions in the global supply chain,although early data for 2023 suggest that supply problems are easing.The manufacturers of p
164、aper,metals,computers,electrical equipment and,above all,motor vehicles suffered particularly from supply shortages in 2022(see the table below),due to delays in the shipment of metal parts and the shortage of microchips or semiconductors,of vital importance for the manufacture of new models and who
165、se production is relatively inelastic.In terms of technology content,these products are both low/low-medium(paper,metals)and high/medium-high(computers,electrical equipment,motor vehicles).14 This examines the proportion of companies reporting shortages of materials or equipment as a limiting factor
166、 in production.The latest available data for Q1 2023 have been relatively favourable,with few sectors reporting more stress:food,beverages,textiles and pharmaceuticals.The manufacturers of paper,metals,computers,electrical equipment and motor vehicles suffered particularly from supply shortages in 2
167、022 23Sector Report2023Quantifying the drop in imports into Spain due to bottlenecksTo analyse the extent of the impact of bottlenecks on Spanish industry,we have used the import volume data registered with Customs,broken down by manufacturing branch.We can use these data to analyse the extent to wh
168、ich the five sectors weve identified as particularly hard hit reduced their volume of foreign purchases,presumably as a result of the disruptions in the global supply chain.The chart below summarises how imports in these branches have performed since 2019.Particularly of note are the imports by the
169、IT branch,which grew considerably in 2020(+20%annually)thanks to demand created by the great advances made in digitalisation forced by the pandemic in many sectors of production(adaptation to e-commerce and teleworking systems).However,2022 saw the most visible effects of the disruptions in the semi
170、conductor market during the so-called microchip crisis,with the IT industry becoming one of the sectors hardest hit by the bottlenecks,its imports falling by around 50%compared to 2019.Companies reporting lower production due to shortages of materials(%of all companies)Source:CaixaBank Research,base
171、d on data from the European Commission.Trend in the manufacturing industry322824201612840Q1 2015Q3 2015Q1 2016Q3 2016Q1 2017Q3 2017Q1 2018Q3 2018Q1 2019Q3 2019Q1 2020Q3 2020 Q1 2021Q3 2021 Q1 2022Q3 2022 Q1 2023Historical range(1995-2019)Companies affected20192022Q1 2023Motor vehicle industry17.676.
172、171.0Manufacture of metal products6.436.732.7Manufacture of beverages1.426.631.8Manufacture of electrical equipment2.839.317.6Food industry2.411.916.8Graphic arts1.725.116.0Textile industry4.38.615.2Manufacture of pharmaceuticals12.410.614.1Transport material(not automotive)0.133.213.6Manufacture of
173、 computers11.740.411.5Manufacture of plastic products1.318.211.3Manufacture of machinery1.919.311.0Chemical industry5.415.810.7Repair and installation of machinery2.133.66.0Paper industry3.643.15.9Metallurgy5.812.01.0Manufacture of furniture1.14.50.6Cement industry2.617.60.6Wood industry20.223.40.3T
174、otal manufacturing industry5.426.418.9Change vs.2023-5-45-225-974-20-29-7-8-5-28-37-11-4-17-23-8Latest figure24Manufacturing IndustryVehicle components and parts were the products that suffered the most from the impact of bottlenecks in 2022,with a decline in imports,which are key to the proper func
175、tioning of factories in SpainThe performance of the automotive industry is also worth mentioning,this branch reporting the biggest problems due to lack of supply,largely because of the semiconductor shortage.Consequently,the drop in automotive imports in 2022 was also considerable,21%lower than in 2
176、019.Specifically,vehicle components and parts were the products that suffered most from the impact of bottlenecks in 2022,with imports,which are key to the proper functioning of factories in Spain,falling by 24%compared to 2019.However,imports of finished vehicles were also hit hard,posting a 20%dro
177、p compared to 2019 although they improved their position in relation to 2021(when imports were down 32%compared to 2019).Finally,imports by the metal manufacturing industry also suffered from the effects of bottlenecks.In this case,the 8.5%drop posted in 2022 was directly associated with the war in
178、Ukraine and trade sanctions against Russia,one of the worlds leading producers of metal ores.Despite the high proportion of companies reporting problems of shortages,there was no decline in the volume of imports among the other branches.Imports by activity branch Benchmark(100=2019)Source:CaixaBank
179、Research,based on data from DataComex.604020020022Paper industryManufacture of metal productsIT industryManufacture of machineryMotor vehicle industry25Sector Report2023Dependence remains high on Asias manufacturing industry As noted at the beginning,much of the disruption in t
180、he global supply chain was caused by the pandemic but especially by the way China handled it.Its zero COVID policy,implemented until early 2023,resulted in long lockdowns and restrictions on peoples movement in large cities,with the consequent difficulties in transport services and production centre
181、s.Due to international industrys huge exposure to the Chinese market and the trade problems and tensions it has caused in recent years,15 people are once again starting to wonder whether production processes should be relocated and suppliers diversified in order to also diversify the industrys suppl
182、y risks.Although this is a logical strategy in theoretical terms,an analysis of the most recent trends in the sector suggests that this change in the supplier mix is not taking place;in fact,rather the opposite.If we focus our analysis on imports of electronic components into the EU as a whole,where
183、 bottlenecks have been very intense,we can see a huge concentration of imports from China which continued to intensify in 2022.As seen in the chart below,85%of all EU imports of electronic components came from China,a considerable increase when compared to the Asian countrys share in 2019,namely 66%
184、.Chinas greater share has been achieved to the detriment of the rest of the EUs main suppliers,both in the case of Western countries(mainly the US)and the emerging countries of South-East Asia(especially Vietnam,Malaysia and Thailand).15 See the Focus EU and China:mapping out a strategic interdepend
185、ence published in the May 2022 Monthly Report.26Manufacturing IndustryEU imports of electronic components%of totalSource:CaixaBank Research,based on data from Eurostat.China0VietnamUSAThailandMalaysiaTaiwanUnited KingdomSouth KoreaJapanTurkey54321Right scale%of total20222019Positive outlo
186、ok for 2023While this greater concentration of Chinese imports could be a risk factor should disruptions in global supply chain remain high,most of the indicators used to gauge the intensity of bottlenecks suggest that these have been clearly diminishing since the end of 2022.For example,container c
187、ost indices,which reflect the rates and management of tariffs for freight forwarders and carriers for international cargo and indicate the ease of transporting goods internationally,have been at levels similar to 2019 since the beginning of 2023.The New York Federal Reserves monthly index of global
188、supply chain pressures16 is also below 0(i.e.,below its long-term average)and in March 2023 was at its lowest level since August 2009.16 The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index(GSCPI)integrates a number of commonly used metrics with the aim of providing a comprehensive summary of potential supply cha
189、in disruptions.Global transportation costs are measured by employing data from the Baltic Dry Index(BDI)and the Harpex index,as well as air freight cost indices from the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics.The GSCPI also uses several supply chain-related components from Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)surv
190、eys.Most of the indicators used to gauge the intensity of bottlenecks suggest these have been clearly diminishing since the end of 202227Sector Report2023On balance,bottlenecks have posed a significant problem for some branches of Spains manufacturing industry,with a particularly localised impact on
191、 the automotive industry and computer manufacturers.However,despite the huge difficulties faced by these industries,Chinas relative weight as a supplier of electronic products is still growing,so our exposure continues to be significant.Nevertheless,the factors behind the disruptions in the supply c
192、hain are easing,especially now that China has reopened to trade.Looking ahead to 2023,we expect this improvement in conditions to consolidate,so that manufacturing will leave behind one of the major problems of the past two years,thereby achieving an important growth lever.Pressures on global supply
193、 chainsBenchmarkContainer costDollars per 40 containerNote:The index mean is 0.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on GSCPI data from the New York Fed.Source:CaixaBank Research,based on data from Freightos,via Refinitiv.543210-1-2Jan-09Sep-09May-10Jan-11Sep-11May-12Jan-13Sep-13May-14Jan-15Sep-15May-16Ja
194、n-17Sep-17May-18Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23-1.06%Mar-23 20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23East Asia to Northern EuropeGlobal indexEast Asia to the US West Coast
195、28Manufacturing IndustrySource:CaixaBank Research,based on data from the National Statistics Institute,DataComex,ANFAC,the Ministry of Social Security and the Bank of Spain.Notes:2021 data are compared to those from the same period in 2019.For the indicators marked(*),the 2023 figure corresponds to
196、the cumulative change up to the latest figure available.For the rest of the indicators,the change for the latest figure available is shown.A sun indicates growth above the 2015-2019 avera-ge less 1/4 standard deviation;a sun with a cloud indicates growth above the 2015-2019 average less 1 standard d
197、eviation;a cloud indicates negative growth or growth above the 2015-2019 average less 2 standard deviations;rain indicates growth below the 2015-2019 average less 2 standard deviationsMain indicators for the manufacturing sectorAnnual change,unless otherwise specifiedAverage 2000-2007Average 2008-20
198、14Average 2120222023Date of latest figure TrendEconomic activity indicatorsTotal GDP of the economy3.7-0.92.8-11.35.55.53.8Q1 2023GVA manufacturing industry 1.9-3.02.4-15.48.93.85.0Q1 2023Industrial production index:manufacturing industry 1.4-4.62.4-10.38.32.41.9(*)Mar-23Industrial pr
199、oduction index:agrifood 1.8-0.41.0-5.76.01.6-0.4(*)Mar-23Industrial production index:automotive 1.6-4.53.1-18.8-1.18.214.0(*)Mar-23Turnover index:manufacturing industry5.5-2.73.0-12.016.021.59.8(*)Feb-23Turnover index:agrifood 4.10.82.7-4.18.919.519.2(*)Feb-23Turnover index:automotive 4.7-1.35.1-10.
200、5-2.812.626.8(*)Feb-23Demand indicatorsPassenger car registrations 1.0-7.58.3-32.31.0-5.433.7(*)Apr-23Registrations of load-bearing vehicles3.5-8.513.5-25.9-2.7-17.324.4(*)Apr-23Labour marketTotal registered workers in the economy3.5-2.13.1-2.12.53.93.0Apr-23Registered workers,manufacturing industry
201、-3.61.8-2.11.32.31.5Apr-23Total employees4.2-2.42.7-2.93.03.11.8Q1 2023Employees,manufacturing industry-5.33.1-2.6-0.33.44.6Q1 2023Temporary employment rate (%of employees)32.625.026.224.025.121.217.3Q1 2023Temporary employment rate,manufacturing ind.(%of employees)-17.320.717.117.613.28.9Q1 2023Fin
202、ancingOutstanding balance of credit to production activities 17.8-4.4-4.57.6-0.7-1.1Q4 2022NPL rate,production activities(%)1.011.910.05.04.84.2Q4 2022Outstanding balance of credit to the manufacturing industry 9.4-2.9-1.57.1-0.83.1Q4 2022NPL rate,manufacturing industry(%)1.57.37.94.84.43.7Q4 2022Fo
203、reign sectorManufacturing industry exports-8.64.0-10.219.223.013.8(*)Feb-23Agrifood exports-9.25.74.212.517.012.0(*)Feb-23Automotive exports-7.04.8-14.03.413.523.1(*)Feb-23Manufacturing industry imports-4.25.5-11.220.523.25.2(*)Feb-23Agrifood imports-4.24.5-6.014.826.616.7(*)Feb-23Automotive imports
204、-7.46.9-23.18.723.922.7(*)Feb-23Manufacturing industry balance of trade(%of GDP)-0.00.10.1-0.2-0.2-0.2(*)Q4 2022Agrifood balance of trade (%of GDP)-0.20.51.01.00.90.9(*)Q4 2022Automotive balance of trade(%of GDP)-1.20.91.21.00.70.7(*)Q4 202229CaixaBank ResearchThe Sector Report and the rest of the C
205、aixaBank Research publications are available at the following website:.Our research aims to stimulate debate and the sharing of opinions among all sectors of society,as well as raise awareness of the important social and economic issues of our time.Sector Report2023Consumption trackerMonthly analysi
206、s of the trends in consumption in Spain using big data techniques,based on expenditure using cards issued by CaixaBank,spending by non-customers at CaixaBank POS terminals and withdrawals from CaixaBank ATMs.Monthly Report Analysis of the economic outlook for Spain,Portugal,Europe and internationall
207、y,as well as the trends in the financial markets,with specialised articles on key topical subjects.Economic and Financial News Briefs Assessment of the key macroeconomic indicators for Spain,Portugal,the Euro area,US and China,as well as the meetings of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve.
208、Tourism Report S2 2022Despite the challenging macroeconomic scenario,our analysis of the situation of the tourism industry results in a relatively positive outlook for 2023.Agrifood Report S2 2022The war in Ukraine and its impact on energy and agricultural commodity prices will continue to affect th
209、e outlook for Spains agrifood sector.Real Estate Report S1 2023The real estate sector has left behind a 2022 in which demand for housing exceeded all expectations although the first signs of cooling also began to be perceived.The Sector Report is a publication by CaixaBank Research and it contains i
210、nformation and opinions from sources we have deemed reliable.This document is purely informative and CaixaBank cannot be held responsible,in any way,for how it may be used.The opinions and estimates are those of CaixaBank and may alter without prior notice.The Sector Report may be reproduced in part provided the source is duly mentioned and a copy sent to the editor.CaixaBank,S.A.,CABK_ResearchNWe recommend: