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1、Overseas storage policy and impact on China manufacturing海外海外储能政策对中国制造的影响储能政策对中国制造的影响BNEF presentation at CIESJiayan Shi史家琰May 22,20231BNEFSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Data as of April 4,2023.20232030China will continue to dominate the lithium-ion battery supply chain中国将中国将继续主导锂离子电池供应链继续主导锂离子电池供应链0%50%1

2、00%CellSeparatorElectrolyteAnodeCathodeChinaSouth KoreaJapanEuropeNorth AmericaRoW0%50%100%CellSeparatorElectrolyteAnodeCathodeChinaSouth KoreaJapanEuropeNorth AmericaRoWComponent and cell production capacity组件和电池芯产能组件和电池芯产能2BNEF4267671115139451

3、3762881154181520ChinaCanadaUSFinlandNorwayGermanySouth KoreaSwedenJapanAustraliaFranceUKCzechiaPolandHungary2626092223322595262416222328ChileTurkeyIndiaVietnamSouth AfricaBrazilIn

4、donesiaArgentinaSlovakiaThailandPhilippinesMexicoMoroccoDRCBolivia6252423222120191817Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Segment bars represent inverse of rankings,e.g.Rank 1=30.Shaded areas for manufacturing indicate that the country has no capacity and comes joint last in the rankings with other c

5、ountries.Final rankings are an average of the scores in the five categories and are indicated by the labels at the end of the bars.China topping BNEFs battery supply chain rankings中国在中国在BNEF电池供应链排名中位列榜首电池供应链排名中位列榜首Downstream demandRaw materialsEnvironment,social and governanceBattery manufacturingIn

6、dustry,innovation and infrastructureTop 15Rank 16-30Global battery supply chain rankings summary:2022全球全球电池供应链排名汇总：电池供应链排名汇总：2022年年3BNEFEU energy storage recommendations&flexibility law欧盟欧盟储能建议和灵活性法案储能建议和灵活性法案Chile 智利智利Japan 日本日本Many regions are approving energy storage related policies许许多地多地区正在批准区正

7、在批准储能相关政策储能相关政策Source:EU,Chile Ministry of Energy,Japan Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry.4BNEFSource:BloombergNEF Note:Indias target is estimated,based off our assumptions on expected renewable generation by 2030.Turkeys deployment is calculated based off its 2035 7.5GW target.Energy storage t

8、argets versus expected deployments by target date 储能目标与预期部署规模之间的比较储能目标与预期部署规模之间的比较Global policy is boosting the energy storage industry Ambitious targets,ambiguous outlook 全球政策正在提振全球政策正在提振储能行业储能行业 目目标雄心勃勃，前景模糊不清标雄心勃勃，前景模糊不清007080New YorkIndiaChinaTurkeyGreeceSouth KoreaGWExpecteddeployent

9、sTargets5BNEFMarkets that are developing local strategies,can they outpace China?正在制定本土正在制定本土战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？6BNEFSource:EIA,EPA,Joint Committee on Taxation,BloombergNEF.Note:Only includes clean energy tax credit provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.US climate bills could be game-

10、changers美国气候法案可能会改美国气候法案可能会改变游戏规则变游戏规则Transport,29%Industry,23%Power,26%Residential,6%Commercial,7%Agriculture,10%Inflation Reduction Act$260bn for energy transitionBipartisan Infrastructure Law$80bn for energy transitionU.S.emissionsPASSED,August 2022PASSED,November 2021CCUS tax credit,$3.2bnNuclea

11、r credits,$30bnBiofuels incentives,$6bnClean hydrogen tax credit,$13bnResidential efficiency improvements,$14bnResidential energy improvements,$22bnClean vehicles,$12bnClean refueling/recharging,$1.7bnWind,solar and storage tax credits,$128bnManufacturing tax credits,$37bnGrid enhancement,$28bnCCUS

12、demonstration&infrastructure,$11bnHydrogen hubs and demonstration,$9.5bnElectric transit procurement,$7.5bnCharging infrastructure,$7.5bnAdvanced reactor program,$3.2bnPlugging orphaned wells,$4.7bnNuclear credits,$6bnEstimated 2022-2031 energy transition spending in Inflation Reduction Act and Bipa

13、rtisan Infrastructure Law预计预计 2022 年至年至 2031 年在年在降低通降低通胀法案胀法案和和两党基两党基础设施投资和就业法案础设施投资和就业法案中的能源中的能源转型支出转型支出US emissions7BNEFSource:US Department of Energy,BloombergNEF.Note:Ascend Elements received grants for two projects.US approved more than$2.8 billion in to support battery supply chain美国批准超美国批准超过过

14、 28 亿美元资金用于支持电池供应链亿美元资金用于支持电池供应链Funding for battery projects receiving US grants获得美国拨款的电池项目所获资金获得美国拨款的电池项目所获资金8BNEFSource:BloombergNEFManufacturing LFP in the US under IRA will have competitive cost根据根据IRA在美国制造在美国制造LFP将具将具有有有有竞竞争力的成本争力的成本9BNEFSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Dates for fully commissioned pla

15、nts correspond to the data when the last phase was commissioned.Bubble size corresponds total capacity commissioned,under construction and announced.North Americas cell manufacturing activity is expanding北美的北美的电池制造产业正在扩张电池制造产业正在扩张10BNEFMarkets that are developing local strategies,can they outpace Ch

16、ina?正在制定本土正在制定本土战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？11BNEFEurope is responding欧洲正在回欧洲正在回应应Source:Bloomberg Mercury,European Commission.European Green Deal欧洲欧洲绿色新政绿色新政Net Zero Industry Act净零工业法案净零工业法案12BNEFSource:BloombergNEF,European Commission Note:*The 2020 proposal also had recovery rates for nickel,co

17、balt and copper.EU hopes to clean up manufacturing and protect European companies欧盟希望推欧盟希望推动电池制造的脱碳转型并保护欧洲公司动电池制造的脱碳转型并保护欧洲公司EU sustainable battery pact timeline of legislation and targets欧盟可持欧盟可持续电池公约立法和目标时间表续电池公约立法和目标时间表13BNEFSource:BloombergNEF.EUs local battery supply target should be achievable

18、欧盟的本地欧盟的本地电池供应目标应该可以实现电池供应目标应该可以实现02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600202220232024202520262027202820292030GWhEU battery capacityDemandEU proposed target for 2030Announced battery cell manufacturing capacity in Europe 宣布在欧洲建造的宣布在欧洲建造的电池芯制造产能电池芯制造产能14BNEFSource:BloombergNEF.Note:figure with data as of Ju

19、ne 2021.Europe has a lot of home-grown battery makers scaling up欧洲有很多欧洲有很多“本土本土”电池制造商正在扩大电池制造规模电池制造商正在扩大电池制造规模Battery cell production capacity commissioned and under construction in Europe欧洲的已投欧洲的已投产和在建电池芯产能产和在建电池芯产能15BNEFMarkets that are developing local strategies,can they outpace China?正在制定本土正在制定

20、本土战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？战略的市场，它们能否超越中国？16BNEFEnergy storage technologies are keyLithium iron phosphate(LFP)continues its rise储能技术是关键储能技术是关键磷酸磷酸铁锂铁锂(LFP)继续增长继续增长Battery storage chemistry mix outlook based on gigawatt-hours 电池储能材料体系结构展望（单位基于电池储能材料体系结构展望（单位基于GWh）Source:BloombergNEF.Note:NCA,NMC and LFP refer

21、to lithium-ion battery chemistries,NCA is lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide,NMC is lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide and LFP is lithium iron phosphate.17BNEFNote:Dotted color for JV capacity.LG has one JV with GM(Ultium Cells)in the U.S.and one with Hyundai in Indonesia.Samsung SDI has one JV

22、 with Stellantis in the U.S.GWh commissioned&planned as of Oct 2021.Korean government is backing towards LFP韩国政府大力支持磷酸铁锂韩国政府大力支持磷酸铁锂(LFP)产业产业Footprint/cell capacity110IndonesiaKoreaChinaPolandU.S.Footprint/cell capacity682350KoreaChinaU.S.Hungary23.3 billion won($17.5 million)an investmen

23、t plan on LFP battery manufacturing 韩国经济部宣布了一项价值 233 亿韩元（1750 万美元）的LFP 电池制造投资计划18BNEFNote:Panasonic has one JV with Tesla in the U.S.and one with Toyota with footprints in China and Japan.GWh commissioned&planned as of Oct 2021Japan has mapped out plans until 2030日本制定了日本制定了2030年年计划计划Footprint/cell c

24、apacityGWh41494.838.5ChinaJapanU.S.Footprint/cell capacity GWh321242740U.S.JapanFranceU.K.ChinaBy 2030150 GWh-domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity.国内锂离子电池制造能力达150GWh600 GWh-global manufacturing capacity at Japanese companies.日本公司的全球制造能力达600GWhCommercialization of solid-state batteries

25、.商业化固态电池100 billion yen($783 million)to support domestic battery manufacturing.日本政府为支持国内电池制造投资提供1000 亿日元（7.83 亿美元）19BNEF02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600$million05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000$millionOtherSpainBelgiumItalyUKNetherlandsGermanySource:BloombergNEF,General Administration of Customs of Chi

26、na,Sinoimex.Note:The HS code is 85076000,including both lithium-ion accumulators monomer and Lithium-ion accumulators system.The code includes batteries for consumer electronic,electric vehicles,and energy storage.China lithium-ion battery export to US中国中国对美国的锂离子电池出口额对美国的锂离子电池出口额China lithium-ion ba

27、ttery export to EU&UK中国中国对欧盟和英国的锂离子电池出口额对欧盟和英国的锂离子电池出口额Despite the support,markets got even more dependent on China尽管存在各种支持，但市尽管存在各种支持，但市场对中国的依赖程度越来越高场对中国的依赖程度越来越高+UK20BNEFSource:Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,China automobile battery innovation alliance,BloombergNEFChina lithium-io

28、n battery output中国中国锂离子电池产量锂离子电池产量China domestic demand is supporting supply chain中国国内中国国内电池需求支撑电池供应链电池需求支撑电池供应链00500600700800200212022GWhConsumerelectronicsEnergystorageElectricvehicle21BNEFLithium-ion battery price raise for the first time in 2022锂离子电池价格在锂离子电池价格在2022年上升年上升Sou

29、rce:BloombergNEF.Note:Historical prices have been adjusted using June 2021 to June 2022 inflation rates based on US Consumer Price Index(CPI)index.50244430230208383332424242000212022real 2022$/kWhPackCellPack and

30、 cell split,all sectors电池电池包包与与电芯价格电芯价格22BNEFEnergy storage technologies are key Lithium iron phosphate(LFP)continues its rise as sodium-ion enters the mix储能技术是关键储能技术是关键磷酸磷酸铁锂铁锂(LFP)继续增长，钠离子也进入市场继续增长，钠离子也进入市场Source:BloombergNEF.Note:NCA,NMC and LFP refer to lithium-ion battery chemistries,NCA is lit

31、hium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide,NMC is lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide and LFP is lithium iron phosphate.Battery storage chemistry mix outlook based on gigawatt-hours 电池储能材料体系结构展望（单位基于电池储能材料体系结构展望（单位基于GWh）23BNEFSource:BNEF,company filings.2022202252026Small-scale productionSerial

32、productionTo form supply chain for the first-generation Prussian blue cellTo launch the first batch of productsTo launch the first generation of productsSample tests and verificationR&D startedR&DSmall-scale productionTest and verificationLarge-scale productionMid-scale productionColor scale by deve

33、lopment statusRoadmap of Na-ion batteries钠钠离子离子电池发展阶电池发展阶段段Investigating new technologies and options新新技技术和解决方术和解决方案案24BNEFSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Data as of April 4,2023.20232030China will continue to dominate the lithium-ion battery supply chain中国将中国将继续主导锂离子电池供应链继续主导锂离子电池供应链0%50%100%CellSeparator

34、ElectrolyteAnodeCathodeChinaSouth KoreaJapanEuropeNorth AmericaRoW0%50%100%CellSeparatorElectrolyteAnodeCathodeChinaSouth KoreaJapanEuropeNorth AmericaRoWComponent and cell production capacity组件和电池芯产能组件和电池芯产能25BNEFCopyright Bloomberg Finance L.P.2023.This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg Fi

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