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1、1Infrastructure Outlook 2050A joint study by Gasunie and TenneT on integrated energy infrastructure in the Netherlands and Germanycrossing borders in energyIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices2Infrastructure Outl
2、ook 2050A joint study by Gasunie and TenneT on an integrated energy infrastructure in the Netherlands and GermanyHan Fennema,CEO of Gasunie:“The study shows the requirements and limitations of a future energy system based on solar and wind energy.With these highly fluctuating sources of energy,we ne
3、ed strong gas and electricity infrastructures that are seamlessly coordinated.If something is clear from our Outlook 2050,it is that interweaving TenneTs grid with that of Gasunie will give the flexibility the energy system needs.“Manon van Beek,CEO of TenneT:“The cost of solar PV and offshore wind
4、energy has rapidly declined over a very short period of time.If governments continue to set higher targets for limiting CO2 emissions,the energy transition will accelerate.This Infrastructure Outlook 2050 by TenneT and Gasunie is a joint review,which provides valuable insights that had not been show
5、n before.To reach the 2050 climate goals in an efficient and affordable way,cooperation with other partners,such as politics and industry,is crucial as energy systems are not transformed from one day to the next,but require a long-term commitment.“crossing borders in energyIntroductionMethodologyHom
6、eScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices3With respect to the overall energy system,the study clearly reveals the important role that hydrogen can play in providing flexibility and system security.As mentioned in the Dutch Draft Climate Agreem
7、ent,Gasunie and TenneT will begin an explorative infrastructure study for the period 2030-2050 in cooperation with regional grid companies later this year.This study will be used as a basis for agreements on investments in infrastructure between network operators and governments and will be publishe
8、d in 2021.To further analyse the infrastructural needs for the period 2030-2050 in Germany,TenneT has invited the IAEW energy research institute of the University of Aachen to make an in-depth analysis of the future national energy system.Gasunie Deutschland is involved as an important stakeholder,p
9、roviding the gas expertise.Results of the already ongoing study are expected for mid-2019.We expect that this Outlook 2050 will contribute to a better understan-ding of the current and future possibilities for the development of a sustainable,reliable and affordable future energy system.Han Fennema
10、Manon van BeekCEO,Gasunie CEO,TenneT ForewordGasunie and TenneT hereby present their first Infrastructure Outlook 2050,which is the result of a joint study on the development of an integrated energy infrastructure in the Netherlands and Germany.It takes the target of the Paris Agreement(COP21),to ac
11、hieve a 95%CO2-emission reduction by 2050,as its starting point.The European transition towards a renewable energy system is entering a new phase with plans by EU Member States that specify how the targets of the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework should be met.Although these plans do not specify all
12、 the details of the precise transition pathways towards 2050,the general direction is starting to become clear:a strong growth of solar and wind power in combination with the development of power-to-gas(P2G)(hydrogen)conversion,the production of chemicals and liquid fuels and the development of ener
13、gy storage.For different scenarios,this Infrastructure Outlook describes the consequences of possible transition pathways for the existing gas and electricity infrastructures.One of its key messages is that,in the energy system of the future,electricity,heat and gas will be increasingly integrated i
14、n order to absorb the large fluctuations in solar and wind power production.With respect to this matter,TenneT and Gasunie also welcome the repeated emphasis on the importance of system integration in the Dutch Draft Climate Agreement.The study furthermore shows that the long-term need for infrastru
15、cture expansion can be greatly reduced if guidance can be given to the locations of power-to-gas installations.The electricity grid in both Germany and the Netherlands will,however,still require considerable reinforcement due to the growth of peak demand under all scenarios.IntroductionMethodologyHo
16、meScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices4Executive summaryTo meet the 2050 emission targets set in the Paris Climate Agreement,the energy transition will require a complete overhaul of the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system.Although
17、 electricity produced from sun and wind is seen as the main source of energy by 2050,a major part of it has to be converted to molecules(such as hydrogen)to meet the demand of the chemical and fertilizer industries,and other forms of final consumption,all of which are difficult to electrify.The gas
18、system also allows to accommodate green and CO2 neutral gases from biomass and imports.As a consequence,the energy system of the future is expected to not only require a strong electricity infrastructure,but also a strong gas infrastructure.For the Netherlands,this gas infrastructure is expected to
19、transport hydrogen,bio-methane and imported natural gas,and for Germany it is expected to transport hydrogen,bio-methane and domestic or imported synthetic CO2 neutral methane.As such,TenneT and Gasunie,the electricity and gas transmission system operators(TSOs)in Germany and the Netherlands,have jo
20、ined forces to answer questions regarding the future energy system.These questions address such matters as how both infrastructures interact,which energy will flow through which part of the infrastructure,and how to obtain a match between supply and demand,both in terms of space and time.We decided
21、for both Germany and the Netherlands to base the analysis on a common set of scenarios,outlining a plausible future energy system with power-to-gas(P2G)as a cornerstone to fulfil a major proportion of energy demand and reflecting different governance approaches regarding the energy transition.In bot
22、h cases,we took the scenarios from state-of-the art studies1 available for the respective countries.As an infrastructure outlook,this study provides initial insights on infra-structure implications and should not be considered as an investment proposal.The model we have used considers electricity an
23、d gas trans-port infrastructure in an integrated way from a high-level perspective.All the scenarios show that not only the electricity,but also the existing gas transport infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands will play a crucial role in the future energy systems envisaged in this studyWe ob
24、serve that electricity and gas fulfil complementary roles.Wind and solar power are the major primary sources of renewable energy.The 1 CE Delft(2017),Net voor de Toekomst;Enervis(2017),Erneuerbare Gase-ein Systemupdate der Energiewende;FNB Gas(2017),Der Wert der Gasinfrastruktur fr die Energiewende
25、in Deutschland;dena(2018),dena-Leitstudie-Integrierte Energiewende.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices5scenarios consider supplying this renewable energy as electricity or as green gases to the market.The advant
26、age of transporting electricity directly to those sectors where electrification is technically and eco-nomically feasible has the advantage of avoiding energy conversion and the associated energy loss.Green gases,meanwhile,provide an option to decarbonise those sectors where electrification is harde
27、r to achieve.In the figures below it is shown that for all scenarios studied in the Infrastructure Outlook 2050 electricity and gas are the main energy carriers.Electricity supply based on wind and solar power is very volatile by nature.Although generation sometimes exceeds demand by an order of mag
28、nitude,there are also times when wind and solar power generation is very low(Dunkelflaute),resulting in dramatic undersupply.The analy-sis we performed shows that coupling power and gas grids gives the energy system valuable flexibility and transport capacity,by using the existing infrastructure thr
29、oughout the modelled year.The existing gas transmission grid has enough capacity to fulfil its fundamentally changed role in the future energy system,although some technical adaptations are needed due to the different characteristics of hydrogen.Provided that proper guidance can be given to power-to
30、-gas(P2G)interfaces,coupling electricity and gas infrastructures may significantly alleviate the long-term expansion needs for electricity infrastructure.However,we foresee further expansion of the electricity grid after 2030 due to the expected growth in demand by end users.We can conclude that the
31、 energy systems of the future will require both a strong gas and electricity backbone,including storage facilities,to secure supply to all forms of final consumption at any moment in time.Final energy demand for the Netherlands(2017 and three 2050 scenarios)16%30%9%45%9%26%23%24%12%15%9%39%15%24%22%
32、9%35%14%38%13%ElectricityMethaneHydrogenOthersLiquid fuels2017:Demand(669 TWh)2050 Local:Demand(405 TWh)2050 National:Demand(416 TWh)2050 International:Demand(417 TWh)IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices6Final en
33、ergy demand for Germany(2017 and three 2050 scenarios)9%20%26%16%38%9%28%29%8%25%10%9%30%22%18%22%8%9%27%18%18%21%16%ElectricityMethaneHydrogenOthersLiquid fuels2017:Demand(2591 TWh)2050 Local:Demand(1934 TWh)2050 National:Demand(1748 TWh)2050 International:Demand(2024 TWh)Although electricity stora
34、ge will be widely available by 2050,only gas storage will provide a solution for seasonal storage in a system based on solar and wind powerAn energy system based on wind and solar power will require vast amounts of storage to cope with fluctuations in supply on timescales ranging between frequency r
35、estoration to seasonal storage.Further-more,demand for energy varies considerably over the year(e.g.extra energy demand for heating in winter).Significant installed capacities of electricity storage(e.g.batteries,pump storage)have been considered in this study.However,the energy volume of such stora
36、ge options,even until 2050,is limited.Existing underground gas storage facilities,on the other hand,can absorb large quantities of renewable energy for seasonal and long-term storage.Gas storage provides the main source of energy to the entire system during Dunkelflaute situations.By coup-ling elect
37、ricity and gas grids,renewable energy can gain access to existing underground gas storage facilities.As such,much like trans-mission infrastructure,electricity and gas storage are complementary.The location,capacity and operation of P2G installations are decisive factors and must be aligned with bot
38、h electricity and gas TSOsCoupling the electricity and gas transport infrastructure with P2G instal-lations gives the overall energy system additional flexibility.However,under scenarios with a high penetration of wind and solar power,the use of P2G causes a massive increase in electrical peak load,
39、as a result of which it can potentially worsen infrastructural bottlenecks if the capa-cities and locations of these P2G installations are not properly aligned with the grids.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices7
40、An analysis of the results indicates that locating P2G installations close to renewable production facilities can reduce the need for electricity grid expansion.This is especially the case when the overall P2G capacity is relatively high in comparison to renewables.It is not a given however that P2G
41、 installations always relieve grid constraints.Significant elec-tricity and gas grid constraints may still arise if,from a grid perspective,the operation of these installations is suboptimal.Therefore,appropriate incentives for the operation of P2G units must be put in place to ensure efficient grid
42、 operation.Socially accepted solutions for an integrated energy infrastructure require a new level of public and political supportIn most scenarios,increasing peak demand in the electricity grid results in an increased utilization or even overloading of transmission lines.According to the methodolog
43、y chosen for this study,this may indicate a need for additional electrical grid expansions in addition to the measures until 2030 that have already been confirmed,both technically and politically.We have identified two crucial aspects for the realisation and success of the energy transition:politica
44、l willingness to construct new electricity transmission lines,to accommodate the predicted demand growth by end users and a fundamentally changed energy supply structure based on renewable energy sources,and the creation of a clear supportive regulatory framework for the integration of P2G plants in
45、to the energy system in order to minimise the total number of grid expansions.Recommendations and further work Futurediscussionswithintheoveralldebateontheenergytransitionshould aim for a detailed P2G implementation strategy,with special consideration of the corresponding implications it will have o
46、n elec-tricity and gas grids.Thisstrategyshouldalsoincludeworkonthetechnicalandeconomicfeasibility of large-scale P2G facilities.Inordertoensureefficientnetworkinvestments,theelectricityandgas TSOs should be involved in drawing up a detailed P2G integration strategy.Tofacilitateanefficienttransition
47、,werecommendthatvariouspath-ways to 2050 described in this study are worked out in further detail.Thefindingsofthisstudycanprovideguidancetotheinvestmentplan processes(NEP in Germany and IP/NOP in the Netherlands).ThescenariosusedinthisstudywerebasedonnationalCO2 accounting rules and therefore did n
48、ot consider the future energy demand for international aviation and sea shipping.Since these forms of transport are expected to require substantial amounts of energy in the future for both Germany and the Netherlands,we recommend including them in a follow-up analysis.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScen
49、ario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices8Table of contentsForeword _3Executive summary _41.Introduction _92.Methodology _11 2.1 Corporate approach _ 12 2.2 Dutch specifics _ 14 2.3 German specifics _ 153.Scenario framework _18 3.1 Overall storylin
50、es _ 19 3.2 Dutch specifics _ 20 3.3 German specifics _ 204.What do the energy scenarios teach us regarding transport infrastructure?_29 4.1 Final annual electricity and gas demand _ 30 4.2 Annual gas storage demand _ 31 4.3 National peak supply and demand for electricity and gas _ 325.What does the
51、 infrastructure model teach us?_34 5.1 Regarding the coupling of gas and electricity infrastructure?_ 35 5.2 Regarding the electricity infrastructure?_ 36 5.3 Regarding the gas infrastructure?_ 386.Conclusions and recommendations _42Appendices _ 47Included in the digital version only;obtain your fre
52、e copy at www.tennet.eu and www.gasunie.nl or www.gasunie.deIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices91.IntroductionIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure mod
53、elConclusionsAppendices10As can now be seen,the overall transition route for Europe will be based on an interplay between the production of renewable electricity and the conversion of green electrons into green molecules,which are needed in bulk quantities outside the electricity system,e.g.for base
54、 chemical and plastics production.The electrolysis of water is currently the most promising technology to convert renewable electricity into a physical product(i.e.hydrogen),since the technology will be able to provide the required flexibility to deal with large fluctuations in electricity productio
55、n by wind and solar power.Another advantage of the electrolysis process is that the hydrogen produced and its derivative,methane,can be stored and transported in the current natural gas infrastructure.Also,both products can readily be used as fuel and as a building block for a large range of chemica
56、ls.The conversion of power into gas also offers the possibility for large-scale energy imports from elsewhere in the world.Some studies,such as by the International Energy Agency2 already point out that the vast potential for offshore wind in the North Sea will not be enough to meet final demand3 of
57、 surrounding countries and that by 2050 these countries will have to import considerable amounts(up to 50%)of renewable energy from outside Europe.It has been predicted that the large-scale application of P2G conversion(and the continued use of methane and hydrogen in power plants for gas-to-power c
58、onversion)will lead to an increased interweaving of the gas and electricity transport infrastructures.Although the conceptual idea of coupling gas and electricity infrastructures has been observed in a number of studies,plotting the consequences for the transmission of energy on a national scale has
59、 not been addressed so far.Early 2018,TenneT and Gasunie decided to initiate a study into this matter.The Infrastructure Outlook 2050 outlines an integrated energy infrastruc-ture design based on supply and demand requirements that fulfil green-house gas emission reductions as stated in the Paris Ag
60、reement.The goal of the study is to gain insight in the potential and limitations of the combined gas and electricity infrastructures of the Netherlands and Germany in 2050.For this,we used an integrated infrastructure model for gas and electricity that enabled us to study the possible infrastructur
61、e consequences of available supply and demand scenarios for 2050.This outlook presents a direction in which the infrastructure could develop to 2050.It serves to support the shorter-term decision-making processes.After all,although the Outlook concerns the year 2050,the relevant decisions must be ma
62、de today.The European transition towards a renewable energy system is entering a new phase with plans from EU member states that specify how the targets of the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework should be met.Although these plans leave some room to manoeuvre for the transition pathways towards 2050,a
63、 certain clarity is starting to appear regarding the direction of the overall route to be taken.2 International Energy Agency,World Energy Outlook 20173 Final demand includes energy demand(e.g.,for heating,as feedstock,etc.)supplied by all energy carriers(e.g.,electricity,hydrogen)together.Introduct
64、ionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices112.MethodologyIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices12This section describes the methodological ap
65、proach of the Infrastructure Outlook 2050.Key elements of the approach are a comprehensive modelling approach of the national energy systems of Germany and the Netherlands,and the use of an integrated infrastructure model that can assess the gas and electricity transport systems simultaneously.2.1 C
66、orporate approachThe overall set-up for the study includes five consecutive steps,as presented in Figure 1.Step 1:Scenario frameworkWe worked out in detail three different scenarios for each country.The scenarios differ in how the transition process will be steered.For this study,we assumed that ste
67、ering can be done at a local level by local councils,at a national level by national governments and at a global level based on international trading agreements.All the scenarios fulfil the long-term climate target,i.e.reduction of CO2 emissions by 95%in 2050 compared to the reference year 1990.For
68、more information on the scenario framework and the contents of the scenarios,please refer to Appendix I.Scenario frameworkEnergy system calculations Regionalisation and selection of snapshotsInfrastructure analysisVisualisation&analysis of resultsFigure 1:Overall study set-upStep 2:Energy system cal
69、culations Each scenario considers four energy carriers:liquid fuel(synthetic and fossil oil),electricity,hydrogen and methane(natural gas,synthetic methane and biogas).For the latter three,hourly values for supply and demand(including interrelated conversions)were generated.Historic hourly weather d
70、ata from 20154 was used to quantify the weather-dependent behaviour of demand and of solar and wind power for the reference year 2050.We assessed the data focusing on the analysed country alone,i.e.not integrated in the European energy infrastructure system.P2G(electrolysis)and gas-to-power(gas-fire
71、d power plant)installations were modelled as base options for balancing the electricity system.Batteries and pump storage(the second only in Germany)were modelled as to provide peak balancing(i.e.daily flexibility)due to their 4 Temperature and wind data series from 2015 were used,as these were read
72、ily available in the tooling.This weather year represents an normal year.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices13limited storage capability.We used the remaining flexibility possibilities,e.g.import/export and powe
73、r to heat,in the model as the last option for balancing the electricity system.The annual pattern of the gas demand of different sectors of the economy was taken from the consulted studies.For each sector,the hourly gas demand was calculated in line with the weather data from 2015.The main supply so
74、urce of gas in scenarios with marginal gas imports is hydrogen produced by electrolysis(P2G).As such,the calculated gas supply is strongly influenced by the hourly production of solar and wind power.The same applies to gas demand,which is strongly affected by the consumption of the gas-fired power p
75、lants serving electrical demand during times with low production by solar and wind power.In terms of flexibility,the main element on the gas side to cover the resulting supply/demand imbalances are the underground storage facilities for hydrogen and methane.The result of this procedure is a set of h
76、ourly time series(8,760 hours)for supply,demand and flexibility for each scenario.Step 3:Regionalisation and selection of critical hours (snapshots)For the analysis of what infrastructure is needed,national supply and demand had to be split up into smaller regions.We based this regional split on cat
77、egory-dependent regionalization keys derived from a number of statistical sources.We determined the locations of P2G installations by testing different options for the Dutch and German energy systems.Demand and supply values for the different energy carriers were available for all 8,760 hours of eve
78、ry scenario.For the selection of critical hours,we considered three infrastructure stressing situations:Highrenewableenergysupplyandhighelectricaldemand(mainstress test for the electricity grid)Highrenewableenergysupplyandlowdemand(stresstestforboththe gas and the electricity grid)Lowrenewableenergy
79、supplyandhighdemand(mainstresstestforthe gas network).For these situations,we selected several representative hours from the time series.More information on snapshot selection is provided in Appendix I.Step 4:Infrastructure analysisOne of the key elements of the chosen methodological approach is the
80、 integrated infrastructure model,developed by Gasunie Transport Services and TenneT TSO B.V.This model enables simultaneous modelling of gas(methane and hydrogen)and electricity transport systems.The model is based on a linear programming algorithm.For any balanced entry/exit combination,it calculat
81、es an optimised network flow pattern.The model assumes a(pipe)line transport load function T(Q)that is linear in transported power(Q)and(pipe)line length(L):T(Q)=QL.The minimum of the sum of(pipe)line load functions then determines the flow pattern.In this way,electricity and gas flows can be treate
82、d on the same basis.Each(pipe)line in the model is assumed to have a(bidirectional)trans-port capacity,expressed as a maximum possible energy flow(MW)over this(pipe)line.The model is set up in a way that available(pipe)line capacity will always be fully used before a bottleneck occurs.The model asse
83、sses whether the total energy throughput is possible in the modelled combined grid.The calculated flow pattern may not always IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices14represent the actual,physical flow,but it does p
84、rovide a good indication whether bottlenecks will occur in the grid or not.The capacity of gas pipelines is based on available data of the present networks of Gasunie Transport Services,those of the electricity lines on similar data from TenneT.We assumed5 that the transport capacity of a hydrogen p
85、ipeline is 80%of the capacity of a high-calorific methane pipeline and 95%of a low-calorific pipeline.Due to the high reliability requirements imposed on electricity networks,we decided to decrease the nominal capacities of AC lines by a factor of 0.7 to mimic the N-1 requirement6 of electricity tra
86、nsmission networks.Further details of the model can be found in Appendix II.Step 5:Visualisation and analysis of resultsThe output of the grid model calculations for each snapshot is presented in the form of a grid map with coloured network flows:green for light to moderate(pipe)line loads,yellow fo
87、r heavily loaded lines and red for overloaded lines.The width of the(pipe)lines indicates the(relative)magnitude of the flow.2.2 Dutch specifics1)Scenario framework We developed Dutch scenarios using the data from the Net voor de Toekomst(NvdT)study7.According to the chosen storyline framework of ou
88、r outlook,we selected the scenarios local steering,national steering and international steering.2)Energy system calculationsWe calculated national hourly supply and demand values for the total Dutch energy system with the Energy Transition Model(ETM)developed by Quintel8.The total national energy de
89、mand was allocated to the three energy carriers considered.Where necessary,we considered additional data.With regard to the production of electricity from solar and wind power and the effect of temperature on energy demand(cooling and heating),we modelled the Netherlands as a single weather zone.3)R
90、egionalisation and selection of critical hours(snapshots)We mapped the hourly data to municipalities,which means we con-sidered 380 areas in total.The municipal values are linked to the nearest entry/exit9 of the corresponding electricity or gas transport network in order to create the required inpu
91、t data for the integrated infrastructure model.We have assumed that the location of the conventional power plants in 2050 will not change.Power production was scaled with respect to current installed capacity.4)Infrastructure analysis We modelled the Dutch integrated transport infrastructure using T
92、enneTs current 380/220kV high-voltage network,including expansions up to 2030,and the current high-pressure(80 and 67 bar)networks of Gasunie Transport Services(see Figure 2).The current Dutch high-calorific natural 5 Based on a report by DNV-GL(DNV-GL,2017,Verkenning waterstofinfrastructuur.)6 This
93、 is the rule according to which the elements remaining in operation within a(TSOs)control area after a contingency occurs must be capable of accommodating the new operational situation without violating operational security limits.7 CE Delft(2017).Net voor de Toekomst(Achtergrondrapport),november 20
94、17.8 See:https:/ Net voor de Toekomst scenarios are available on the Energy Transition Model(ETM)website and can be freely used for further analysis and evaluation purposes.9 The closest neighbour analysis considering the underlying infrastructure.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContent
95、SummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices15gas network is,in the model,largely assigned to future hydrogen trans-ports and the low-calorific network to the transports of natural gas and bio-methane.2.3 German specifics For Germany,the modelling and analysis steps were
96、generally similar to those applied for the Netherlands.The specific deviations from this approach are described in the following subsections.1)Scenario framework Since the Net voor de Toekomst study did not include neighbouring countries,we selected specific energy studies for Germany in line with t
97、he general storyline definition of this outlook.As such,the German scenarios are not identical to the Dutch ones.The three selected studies are:Local:OptimiertesSystemfromthestudyErneuerbareGaseeinSystemupdate der Energiewende published by INES and Enervis10.National:StromundGrnesGasfromthestudyDerW
98、ertderGasinfrastruktur fr die Energiewende in Deutschland published by FNB Gas and Frontier Economics11.International:Technologiemix95%fromthestudydenaLeistudie Integrierte Energiewende published by dena and EWI12.2)Energy system calculationsWe used the ETM to model the hourly structure of supply an
99、d demand for the considered scenarios.For Germany,we took regional weather conditions into account in the model,leading to regional profiles for supply and demand.The supply of methane in two scenarios was based on methanation of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide with hydrogen.The assumed operation
100、 strategy(see Appendix II)for this process has a major effect on the use of storage for both hydrogen and methane.Electricity gridHydrogen gridMethane gridFigure 2:Geographic overview of assumed topologies for the Dutch gas and electricity infrastructures.(Line thickness represents maximum available
101、 transport capacity.Visual representation of gas and electricity capacities is not proportional.)10 https:/erdgasspeicher.de/files/20171212_studie_erneuerbare_gase.pdf11 https:/www.fnb-gas.de/files/fnb_gas_wert_von_gasinfrastruktur-endbericht.pdf12 https:/shop.dena.de/fileadmin/denashop/media/Downlo
102、ads_Dateien/esd/9261_dena-Leitstudie_Integrierte_Energiewende_lang.pdfIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices163)Regionalisation and selection of critical hours(snapshots)We mapped the demand and supply data of Germ
103、any to the NUTS 2 regions and as such Germany was divided into 38 regions(see Figure 3).4)Infrastructure analysisAs for the Dutch modelling,we modelled separate energy transport infrastructures for electricity,hydrogen and methane.The mapping of supply and demand data to NUTS 2 level meant we had to
104、 define a grid and an aggregated grid topology.To match the structure of the input data from regionalisation to the grid model and to also limit overall model complexity,we had to simplify the German grid topology as well.The transport capacities between the nodes enable an exchange of energy betwee
105、n the regions.We modelled the connection links using a capacity and a length according to the asset properties.If there were more links between two corresponding regions,then we aggregated the capacity.Figure 4 shows the topology of the electricity grid including todays 380/220 kV transport grid and
106、 all the reinforcement and expansion measures until 2030 that are officially approved by the German regulator(Bundesnetzagentur)13.As the German gas grid is owned and operated by several TSOs,detailed grid data and a calculation tool for the whole grid are not available.To develop a calculation mode
107、l in alignment with the NUTS 2 regions,we used public information like maps or data from the German NDP(NetzentwicklungsplanNEP).Thisdatawascollectedand combined to generate a simplified grid model that takes into account the capacity of each pipeline as a function of diameter,nominal pressure and g
108、as quality.We only considered pipelines with a pressure higher Figure 3:NUTS 2 regions of Germany(Source:de.wikipedia.org).13 Confirmed measures according to German grid development plan 2030(v2017),not covering all measures proposed by the German transmission system operators(TSOs)IntroductionMetho
109、dologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices17than 40 bar and a diameter larger than 400 mm.We assumed that the transport capacity of a pipeline used for hydrogen transport is 80%of the capacity of the same pipeline used for methane.As t
110、he low calorific gas grid only covers part of North West Germany,we had to take a different approach for the split of the gas infrastructure than the one we used for the Dutch grid models.This approach was based on the fact that the future hydrogen system will have to provide the main flexibility to
111、 the integrated energy system to absorb the large fluctuations in the electricity generation in the scenarios with large amounts of solar and wind power.In order to create a strong hydrogen grid,we selected most of the backbone pipelines in the German gas infrastructure,such as the main transit or i
112、mport pipelines,for hydrogen transport.For the methane grid,we used smaller pipelines and loop pipelines to the transit infrastructure.Electricity gridHydrogen gridMethane gridFigure 4:Geographic overview of assumed topologies for the German gas and electricity infrastructures.(Line thickness repres
113、ents maximum available transport capacity.Visual representation of gas and electricity capacities is not proportional.)IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices183.Scenario frameworkIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario
114、 frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices19National Aimforenergyindependencerelyingmostly on centralised RES supply Mostlycentralsupplyofwind Strongsupportofpower-to-gasandbatteries as flexibility options Limited energy exchange with other countriesLoc
115、al Strongaimforenergyindependencerelying on centralised RES supply Mostlydecentralsupplyofsolar Strongsupportofpower-to-gasandbatteries as flexibility options No energy exchange with neighbouring countriesInternational Globallyorientedpolicywithfocusoninternational energy exchange Nostrongsupportofe
116、xtensiveRESsupply increase Businessasusualmin.-95%CO2 emissions until 2050NvdT national(NL)FNB Strom und Grnes Gas(DE)NvdT international(NL)dena Technologiemix 95%(DE)NvdT regional(NL)Enervis Optimiertes System(DE)Table 1:Overview of the main CO2 reduction measures per end user sector for each scena
117、rio3.1 Overall storylines As can be seen from Table 1,the use of the scenario driver,governance structure,has resulted in scenarios with significantly different energy systems though all achieve the 95%emission reduction target by 2050.graphic representation of the scenarios,which clearly indicates
118、their differences,is provided on pages 23 through 28.1)Local focus on decentralised renewablesIn this scenario(page 23-24),we assumed that municipalities and city councils are in the drivers seat,thereby placing a strong emphasis on energy independency at a national level.Power and heat are generate
119、d decentrally where possible using local renewable sources,such as solar power,but also wind,biomass and geothermal energy play a rol.Overall electrification is the highest in this scenario.Due to the strong dependence on solar PV,we assumed a high amount of battery storage to cover intraday variati
120、ons.The local scenario also contains the highest amount of installed power-to-hydrogen capacity to span seasonality in supply and demand.The hydrogen produced is mainly used as a transport fuel IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelCon
121、clusionsAppendices20and as feedstock or heating fuel for the process industry.Hydrogen,and to some extent renewable methane,is also used as a fuel for back-up power plants.2)National focus on centralised renewable productionThis storyline(page 25-26)assumes that national governments take the lead in
122、 the energy transition and,like the local scenario,aims for a high degree of energy self-sufficiency.There is an emphasis on centralised wind power and electrification of final energy demand.Besides electricity,there is a substantial demand for hydrogen and methane(bio-methane or methane from methan
123、ation of hydrogen)from renewable sources.Hydrogen is used in the industry as a feedstock,process fuel for spatial heating and a transport fuel.Hydrogen and methane are also used as fuel for back-up power plants during periods with a low infeed of wind power.Due to the strong dependence on variable w
124、ind power,there is a need for a considerable amount of flexibility from power-to-hydrogen and battery storage.3)International focus on energy importThis storyline(page 27-28)assumes that renewable energy will be produced in bulk at locations around the world with the most favourable conditions for s
125、olar and wind power.This would lead to the majority of the required renewable energy being imported in the form of gas(methane or hydrogen)or as green liquid fuels hence,imported as molecules.As such,domestic installed renewable capacities will be lower compared to the other two scenarios.3.2 Dutch
126、specificsAs presented in chapter two the Dutch scenarios were based on three of the four scenarios from the 2017 Net voor de Toekomst study.The main assumptions of these three scenarios are presented in Table 2.3.3 German specificsFrom the system studies described in the previous chapter,we used the
127、 scenario Optimiertes System from the INES and Enervis study14 for the local scenario,as this scenario considers Germany as mainly self-sufficient with high shares of solar PV in electricity generation.For the national scenario,we chose the scenario Strom und Grnes Gas from the FNB Gas study15,as th
128、is also takes a national approach with a focus on centralised offshore wind.For the international scenario,we chose the 95%technology mix scenario from the dena-Leitstudie16 because of its high P2X imports from EU and non-EU countries.In order to make the data basis of these scenario comparable to t
129、he“International”Dutch Scenario from NvdT,the final energy demand for international aviation and sea shipping was not taken into account by performing this study.There is no pure electrification strategy in any of the considered scenarios.Instead,green gas(hydrogen or methane)accounts for a high sha
130、re of demand in all sectors.Methane is mainly used to cover domestic heat demand,whereas hydrogen is used for for industrial processes and mobility.P2G plays a key role in decarbonising Germanys energy system.Green transport fuels from power-to-liquid process are nationally pro-duced in the local sc
131、enario and otherwise imported.According to the scenario framework,imports are highest in the international scenario.Table 3 provides an overview of the scenarios main parameters.14 https:/erdgasspeicher.de/files/20171212_studie_erneuerbare_gase.pdf15 https:/www.fnb-gas.de/files/fnb_gas_wert_von_gasi
132、nfrastruktur-endbericht.pdf16 https:/shop.dena.de/fileadmin/denashop/media/Downloads_Dateien/esd/9261_dena-Leitstudie_Integrierte_Energiewende_lang.pdfIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices21LocalNationalInternatio
133、nalPower&Light25%base-load savings through more efficient appliances.Substantial electrification of industry25%base-load savings through more efficient appliances.Substantial electrification of industry25%savings through more efficient appliancesLow-temperature heatHigh penetration of heat grids and
134、 all-electric(restrictions on green gas,no H2 distribution)Savings:23%High penetration of hybrid heat pumps burning H2(and green gas)(restrictions on green gas)Savings:23%High penetration of hybrid heat pumps burning H2 and green gas(mild restrictions on green gas).Savings:12%High-temperature&feedst
135、ock industryCircular industry and ambitious process innovation:60%savings 55%electrification 97%lower CO2 emissionsCircular industry and ambitious process innovation:60%savings 55%electrification 97%lower CO2 emissionsBiomass-based industry:55%savings 35%biomass 14%electrification 95%lower CO2 emiss
136、ionsPassenger transport100%electric75%electric25%hydrogen50%electric25%green gas25%hydrogenFreight transport50%green gas 50%hydrogen50%green gas 50%hydrogen25%synthetic fuels25%green gas50%hydrogenRenewables generation84 GW solar16 GW onshore wind26 GW offshore wind34 GW solar14 GW onshore wind53 GW
137、 offshore wind16 GW solar5 GW onshore wind6 GW offshore windConversion and storage75 GW electrolysis60 GW battery storage60 GW electrolysis50 GW battery storage2 GW electrolysis5 GW battery storageHydrogen100 TWh domestic generation158 TWh domestic generation73 TWh import4 TWh domestic generationMet
138、hane23 TWh domestic biomethane35 TWh imported natural gas46 TWh domestic biomethane55 TWh imported natural gas24 TWh domestic biomethane72 TWh imported natural gasBiomass28 TWh importTable 2:Main characteristics of the Dutch scenariosIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTranspo
139、rt infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices22LocalNationalInternationalPower&Light25%base-load savings through more efficient appliances10%savings25%savings through more efficient appliancesLow-temperature heatHigh penetration of efficient electric heat pumps.Savings:41%High penetrati
140、on of heat pumps and gas fired heaters burning methane.Savings:33%35%Electric heat pumps.Savings:41%High-temperature&feedstock industryMix of many energy sources:15%savings 16%biomass 29%electrification 100%lower CO2 emissionsMix of many energy sources:25%savings 24%biomass 29%electrification 100%lo
141、wer CO2 emissionsGrowing importance of green gas in industry:18%savings 4%biomass 36%electrification 86%lower CO2 emissionsPassenger transport100%electric25%electric25%hydrogen50%synthetic fuels25%electric25%hydrogen25%methane25%synthetic fuelsFreight transport50%hydrogen50%synthetic fuels35%hydroge
142、n65%synthetic fuels25%electric25%hydrogen50%synthetic fuelsRenewables generation600 GW solar210 GW onshore wind64 GW offshore wind218 GW solar193 GW onshore wind191 GW offshore wind114 GW solar171 GW onshore wind26 GW offshore windConversion and storage281 GW electrolysis110 GW battery storage254 GW
143、 electrolysisminor effect of battery storage on transmission level63 GW electrolysis15 GW battery storageHydrogen365 TWh by domestic P2GNo importsDemand from industry/transportFuel for power-plants323 TWh by domestic P2GNo importsDemand from industry/transportFuel for power-plants164 TWh by domestic
144、 P2G5 TWh importsRelatively small demand from industry/transportMethane365 TWh by domestic methanation200 TWh by domestic biomethaneNo importsHigh demand in all sectors323 TWh by domestic methanationNo importsDemand from residentialNo domestic methanation108 TWh importsHigh demand in all sectorsPowe
145、r-fuels151 TWh by domestic generationNo importsDemand from transportNo domestic generation286 TWh imports of green power-fuelsDemand from transport87 TWh by domestic generation108 TWh imports of green power-fuelsDemand mainly from transport,but also from industry and residentialTable 3:Main characte
146、ristics of the German scenariosIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices23IMPORTRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatNetherlandsLocalLocal scenario(the Nether
147、lands)IMPORTNationalNetherlandsIMPORTRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatIMPORTGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatSupply:Large volume solar PV and limited wind power.Some biogas production and import of natural gasDemand:Sp
148、atial heating:district heating(geothermal,residual heat),electric heat pumps and hybrid green gas boilers.Industry:feedstock:plastic waste and hydrogen,heat:hydrogen and electricity Transport:passenger cars:100%electric,trucks:50%hydrogen and 50%green gasFlexibility:Power to gas and batteriesIntrodu
149、ctionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices24CO2CO2CO2GasPower to gasElectricityMethanationFischer TropschHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatRuralRuralCityIndustryBackup energyGermanyLocalLocal scenario(Germany)Supply:Large volume of i
150、nstalled solar PV and considerable amount of wind power.Biogas productionDemand:Spatial heating:district heating,electric heat pumps and green gas boilers.Industry:feedstock:methane,heat:biomass,electricity,hydrogen and methane Transport:passenger cars:100%electric,trucks:45%hydrogen,50%synthetic fu
151、el,5%electricFlexibility:Power to gas and batteriesCO2CO2CO2RuralRuralCityIndustryBackup energyGermanyIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices25IMPORTNationalRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyGasPower to ga
152、sElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatNetherlandsNational scenario(the Netherlands)IMPORTNationalNetherlandsSupply:Large volume offshore wind and limited solar PV.Some biogas production and import of natural gas.Demand:Spatial heating:hybrid and conventional hydrogen and methane gas boilers.Industry
153、:feedstock:plastic waste and hydrogen,heat:hydrogen and electricity Transport:passenger cars:75%electric,25%hydrogen,trucks:50%hydrogen and 50%green gasFlexibility:Power to gas and batteriesIMPORTRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatIMPORTGa
154、sPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices26CO2CO2CO2ImportGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatMethanationFischer TropschRuralRuralCityIndustryBackup en
155、ergyGermanyNationalNational scenario(Germany)CO2CO2CO2RuralRuralCityIndustryBackup energyGermanySupply:Large volume of off-and onshore wind and considerable amount of solar PV.Biogas production and import synthetic fuelDemand:Spatial heating:mainly green gas boilers and electric and district heating
156、.Industry:total:biomass,hydrogen,methane and electricity.Transport:passenger cars:25%electric,50%hydrogen,25%synthetic fuel,trucks:40%hydrogen and 60%synthetic fuelsFlexibility:Power to gasIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusi
157、onsAppendices27IMPORTInternationalRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyNetherlandsGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatInternational scenario(the Netherlands)IMPORTNationalNetherlandsIMPORTRuralCityIndustryTransportationBackup energyGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic f
158、uelHeatIMPORTGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatSupply:Import of biomass,synthetic liquid fuels,hydrogen and methane.Some biogas production Demand:Spatial heating:Hybrid and conventional hydrogen boilers and hybrid biogas boilers Industry:feedstock:biomass and hydrogen,heat:hydrogen
159、,biomass,green gas and synthetic fuel Transport:passenger cars:50%electric,25%hydrogen and 25%biogas;trucks:50%hydrogen,25%green gas and 25%synthetic fuelsFlexibility:(no specific measures)IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusi
160、onsAppendices28ImportGasPower to gasElectricityHydrogenSynthetic fuelHeatMethanationFischer TropschRuralRuralCityIndustryBackup energyGermanyInternationalInternational scenario(Germany)CO2CO2CO2RuralRuralCityIndustryBackup energyGermanySupply:Considerable volumes of wind and solar PV.Biogas producti
161、on and import of synthetic methane and fuels Demand:Spatial heating:Electric heat pumps,synthetic gas and fuel boilers Industry:feedstock:methane and synthetic fuel,heat:hydrogen,methane and electricity Transport:passenger cars:electricity,methane,hydrogen and synthetic fuel(all 25%);trucks:25%hydro
162、gen,25%electricity and 50%synthetic fuelFlexibility:Power to gas and some batteriesIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices294.What do the energy scenarios teach us regarding transport infrastructure?IntroductionMeth
163、odologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices304.1 Final annual electricity and gas demandFor the Netherlands,the scenarios with a high share of domestic renewable electricity production(Local and National)show an increase of 30%in the t
164、otal amount of electricity that will need to be transported.For the international scenario,the total amount of electricity that will need to be transported is comparable to todays transport volumes.The total amount of electricity that will be transported through the German electricity system in 2050
165、,will remain within a range of+10%of the present levels.For all German and Dutch scenarios,we found that the total annual volume of gas that will need to be transported(synthetic methane and hydrogen)will be either comparable to,or even higher than todays volume.16%30%9%45%9%26%23%24%12%15%9%39%15%2
166、4%22%9%35%14%38%13%ElectricityMethaneHydrogenOthersLiquid fuels2017:Demand(669 TWh)2050 Local:Demand(405 TWh)2050 National:Demand(416 TWh)2050 International:Demand(417 TWh)Figure 3:Final annual demand in the Netherlads in 2017 and in 2050 for the three Dutch scenarios.In addition to the above mentio
167、ned findings,Figures 3 and 4 also show that the final total energy demand will decrease in both countries.This is mainly because of a decline in liquid fuel consumption.It should be noted that both figures present the values for final demand.The primary production of electricity will be much higher
168、in both countries due to the intermediate conversion of power into gas.For most German scenarios,the demand for hydrogen will also be higher,due to the subsequent conversion of hydrogen into methane and liquid fuels.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureI
169、nfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices319%20%26%16%38%9%28%29%8%25%10%9%30%22%18%22%8%9%27%18%18%21%16%ElectricityMethaneHydrogenOthersLiquid fuels2017:Demand(2591 TWh)2050 Local:Demand(1934 TWh)2050 National:Demand(1748 TWh)2050 International:Demand(2024 TWh)Figure 4:Final annual demand in German
170、y in 2017 and in 2050 for the three German scenarios.4.2 Annual gas storage demandThe findings regarding gas storage are based on the assumption that the available pore and aquifer storages will be used to store methane in 2050.For hydrogen,we assume storage in salt caverns to be the preferred optio
171、n,based on a recent report by TNO17.The results show that there are currently enough pore and aquifer storages(depleted gas fields)available for both countries to store methane in all of the considered scenarios.The available storage volumes of salt caverns in the Netherlands need to be expanded for
172、 all scenarios considered.For Germany the results show that the available cavern storage capacity is sufficient to meet the demand for the international scenario.For the other two scenarios a certain expansion is foreseen.Due to the lower calorific value of hydrogen,converting caverns from methane t
173、o hydrogen storage will reduce the energy content of the facility by a factor three.In the Netherlands,around 3 TWh of cavern storage is available for natural gas.Converting all caverns from methane to hydrogen would therefore reduce the energy content to 1 TWh.The modelling results for the Netherla
174、nds show that,depending on the scenario,a cavern storage volume up to 20 times higher than current capacity will be needed to secure future hydrogen supply.The currently available pore and aquifer storages in the Netherlands have a total storage capacity of 150 TWh for natural gas,which is more than
175、 enough for the future storage of methane.17 https:/www.nlog.nl/sites/default/files/2018-11/Ondergrondse+Opslag+in+Nederland+-+Technische+Verkenning.pdfIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices3280706050403020100Hydro
176、genMethaneLocalNationalInternational80706050403020100HydrogenMethaneLocalNationalInternationalFigure 5:Required hydrogen and methane gas storage volumes in 2050 for the three Dutch scenariosFigure 6:Required hydrogen and methane gas storage volumes in 2050 for the three German scenariosRequired gas
177、storage volumes in the Netherlands(TWh)Required gas storage volumes in Germany(TWh)In Germany,some 140 TWh of cavern storage is available for methane.Converting all caverns from methane to hydrogen storage would reduce the energy content of cavern storage to 45 TWh.This is enough for the internation
178、al scenario,but not enough for the other scenarios,based on the current assumptions.Cavern storages for hydrogen will play an important role for all three Ger-man scenarios due to the large amounts of installed P2G capacities that are foreseen.In all scenarios the storages are also heavily used with
179、 respect to capacity and storage volume.As mentioned above it may be necessary to expand not only storage volumes,but also their capacity in the future hydrogen system.However,this issue will require further study because the need for hydrogen and methane storage very much depends on the way the met
180、hanation installations are handled.The currently available pore and aquifer storages in Germany have a total storage volume of 120 TWh for methane,which,based on the current assumptions,is more than enough for future methane storage.4.3 National peak supply and demand for electricity and gasIn order
181、 to cover annual energy demand with solar and wind power,the electricity system must absorb supply surpluses of up to five times the current peak electricity demand.This is the case in both Germany and the Netherlands.The total gas system has sufficient capacity for hydrogen and methane transport to
182、 handle the volatilities in electricity supply,if enough storage for hydrogen,both in terms of capacity and volume,is made available.Peak electricity demand for power and light applications will increase up to a factor two for both Germany and the Netherlands.Above findings are illustrated in Figure
183、s 7 and 8,which present the values for peak demand and supply of electricity,hydrogen and methane for both the Dutch and the German scenarios.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices33The considerable increase in ele
184、ctricity peak demand already indicates that reinforcement of the transmission grid will become necessary.t is also clear,that measures must be taken to prevent an overload of the electricity system,which may occur by inappropriate choice of P2G locations or way of operation.As the model results show
185、 that the transport needs in 2050 for both total gas demand and total gas supply will be lower than the currently observed levels,no severe problems are foreseen if the locations for P2G and methanation(Germany)are properly selected.Under the local scenario for Germany this location selection can be
186、come a critical factor,because the total gas demand corresponds exactly with the current peak transport capacity.18 Demand and supply do not include any flexibility instruments,e.g.storage capacities.19 Demand and supply do not include any flexibility instruments,e.g.storage capacities.Figure 8:Germ
187、an national peak demand and supply(GW)for the three scenarios19.Figure 7:Dutch national peak demand and supply(GW)for the three scenarios18.LocalNationalInternationalCurrent peak demand600 500 400 300 200 100 0ElectricityHydrogenMethaneTotal GasDemandDemandDemandDemandSupplySupplySupplySupply1601401
188、200ElectricityHydrogenMethaneTotal GasDemandDemandDemandDemandSupplySupplySupplySupplyIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices345.What does the infrastructure model teach us?IntroductionMethodologyHomeScen
189、ario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices355.1 Regarding the coupling of gas and electricity infrastructure?Converting renewable energy to hydrogen at locations close to the renewable production facilities will relieve bottlenecks in the electricit
190、y infrastructure,without causing problems for the gas infrastructure.This means that the location of P2G installations is crucial for the energy flows in the system and the amount of renewable energy that can be collected using hydrogen as a carrier.We tested the abovementioned findings by analysing
191、 the grid conse-quences for a situation where P2G installations are located near solar and wind energy production(proportional to installed generation capacity)and for a situation where the P2G installations are sited near industrial areas with hydrogen demand.As illustrated by Figure 9,where a crit
192、ical situation of high demand and high infeed of renewables in the Netherlands is used as an example,siting P2G installations near renewable supply will decrease the total transport demand for electricity and will reduce the number of bottlenecks.Model results,which are provided in Appendix III,also
193、 revealed that siting of P2G installations near renewable supply at quantities proportional to the total installed capacity of solar and wind power does not always prevent congestion in the electricity grid.This is because the favourable locations for solar and wind power installations in both count
194、ries are in different areas of the country,e.g.for Germany,wind power in the north and solar power in the south.This finding is best illustrated on the basis of two snapshots for Germany as presented in Figure 10.The left side of the figure shows the results of a snapshot for the local scenario for
195、an hour at the end of February with a simultaneous high infeed of wind and solar power.As the figure shows,the German electricity system is able to accommodate this situation in the given set-up of the P2G installations.Figure 9:Impact of electrolyser location on electricity flows in the Nether-land
196、s.Snapshot 4044(high demand and high infeed of renewable ener-gy),with electrolysers located close to renewable electricity supply(left)and close to hydrogen demand(right).ElectricityHydrogenElectricityHydrogenShifting of PtH2 to gas demandLoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMet
197、hodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices36The right side of the picture shows an hour at the beginning of February,again for the local scenario,with only a high infeed of electricity from wind.In this case,we found that the German
198、electricity transmission system will be considerably overloaded,even though the fact that total supply is lower than calculated for the left situation.This is because a large share of the surpluses of wind power produced in the north of the country has to be transported to the P2G installations in t
199、he south,near locations of solar generation.Our analysis underlines the importance of the careful consideration of the locations and installed capacities of P2G facilities for the efficient use of existing infrastructures.For example,placing P2G installations predominantly at the same locations as w
200、ind generation may be advan-tageous because,over time,1 GW of installed wind power generates more energy than 1 GW of installed solar power.The way P2G facilities are operated could also have a major impact on the grids.For example,if not all P2G capacities are used at a certain point in time,the de
201、cision of which plant to have in operation will deter-mine the flow on the electricity and gas grids.5.2 Regarding the electricity infrastructure?In addition to the findings in the previous section regarding the locations and capacities of P2G installations,our study also found that the Dutch electr
202、icity transmission network(as foreseen for 2030)will be able to accommodate a considerable part of the forecasted load increase for everyday power and light applications.However,for situations in which the Dutch electricity grid has to accommodate transit flows,there appears to be insufficient avail
203、able transport capacity.ElectricityElectricityFigure 10:Left:snapshot with high infeed of wind and solar Germany(Local scenario,hour 1450,which is a daytime hour at the end of February).Right:snapshot high infeed of only wind(Local scenario,hour 916,which is a nighttime situation in the beginning of
204、 February).For Germany,meanwhile,we have found that the electricity network as foreseen for 2030 will still not have sufficient capacity to cover the peak demands as forecast for 2050.LoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport in
205、frastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices37The specific findings for the Netherlands,as illustrated in Figure 11,show that the transmission network in 2030 can facilitate an increase in peak electricity demand to some extent,but that doubling the peak demand to 35 GW will result in netwo
206、rk bottlenecks.Model results for Germany show that an increase of 20%in current peak load for power and light applications will cause bottlenecks in the 2030 transmission network.Figure 11:Model results for Dutch snapshots with high demand(Left:National,hour 7746/Right:Local,hour 954).Figure 12:Mode
207、l results for German snapshot with high demand(Local,hour 473).ElectricityElectricityElectricityLoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandLoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusions
208、Appendices38Figure 13 illustrates the impact of transit flows on the Dutch electricity system,assuming an international transit flow from the north of the country to the south.As can be seen,this transit leads to a higher load,leaving less capacity available for domestic energy transports.5.3 Regard
209、ing the gas infrastructure?Even without performing infrastructure calculations,it is clear that the future use of the gas infrastructure in the Netherlands and Germany will Figure 13:Example of the impact of transit flows on the Dutch electricity transmission grid(Local,hour 4044).be different from
210、its present use.TSOs currently transport natural gas (of different gas qualities),but in 2050 gas networks must transport hydrogen,(synthetic)methane and maybe even CO2,if carbon capture has a role in the future energy system.The infrastructure calculations for the Dutch gas network show that the ga
211、s system can accommodate all foreseen severe combinations of hydrogen and methane transport.This includes transport of hydrogen to LoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandConsideration of additional transit flows(6,4 GW)IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infras
212、tructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices39and from cavern storage facilities in the north-east of the country and the transport of(bio)methane to and from empty gas fields,also mainly located in the north-east.For Germany,the infrastructure model generally shows higher loads on the methane
213、and hydrogen grids than in the Netherlands.Some snapshots show a high load of the methane or the hydrogen grid infra-structure.The limitations are local:for a small number of connections,the available capacity,assigned based on a relatively simple method,is exceeded.In the Netherlands,the assumed co
214、nversion of the present gas network to a hydrogen transmission network and a methane transmission net-work is fairly straightforward.The present high-calorific gas network has excellent connections to all large industrial areas in the Netherlands,and to the import and export points.Because hydrogen
215、will become very important as feedstock and as fuel for industrial heating,there are many advantages to assigning the high-calorific network to the transport of hydrogen.The low-calorific network is very well connected to the do-mestic market(via the intermediate pressure network of GTS and low pres
216、sure networks of a number of DSOs),making it the obvious choice for the transmission of methane.With this design,(existing)end-user applications can still be used in the future.As hydrogen and methane pipelines can be found in many areas in parallel stretches,the transport of hydrogen to DSO network
217、s is also possible in these areas.The above findings for the Netherlands infrastructure are proven in the model runs,where extensive P2G conversion will be used to store excess energy during a high supply situation,while for a high-demand situation and no infeed from renewables,previously stored ene
218、rgy will be used.As can be seen in Figure 14,situations with low demand and high hydrogen production give rise to hydrogen flows in the direction of the storage locations in the north of the country,which can easily be accom-modated by the current high-calorific system.The model results for a situat
219、ion with high gas demand due to extra demand for spatial heating and the operation of gas power plants supplied with methane from gas storages show a high load of the future methane infrastructure(see Figure 15).HydrogenMethaneFigure 14:Results of model run for situation with low demand and extensiv
220、e P2G conversion(National,hour 4044)in the Netherlands.LoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices40HydrogenHydrogenMethaneMethaneFigure 15:Results of model run for situation
221、 with high demand due to spatial heating and operation of back-up power plants(Local,hour 954)in the Netherlands.Figure 16:Snapshot for a daytime hour at the end of June(Local,hour 4358),with maximum hydrogen production from a high infeed of solar and wind power in Germany.For Germany,there are a fe
222、w situations where the assigned capacities of the gas system are exceeded locally,e.g.when all P2G installations are operating at full capacity to convert a large surplus of electricity resulting from a high infeed of solar and wind power.Figure 16 shows high flows occurring on the German hydrogen g
223、rid due to the transport of hydrogen from the P2G facilities to the storage locations,which are mainly located in northern Germany due to the presence of geological salt formations there.The methane grid shows a moderate transport situation,since it only has to cope with a constant,relatively small
224、supply of methane from methanation installations.The bottleneck in the methane grid in the very north of Germany(Schleswig-Holstein)results from the high amount of LoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastr
225、ucture modelConclusionsAppendices41methanation installations in this area,optimising the integration of offshore renewable production.Similar to the Netherlands,another stressful situation for the German gas infrastructure(mainly in the local and the national scenario)appears in hours with no hydrog
226、en supply from P2G plants.Here,basically the total gas demand(including gas-for-power plants)will be covered by withdrawal from storages in different regions of Germany.As mentioned above,most hydrogen storages are located in the north of the country,while methane storages can be found in the centra
227、l area and to a large extent in the south of Germany.As can be seen in Figure 17,this so-called Dunkelflaute situation results in a high load of the total gas infrastructure.Hydrogen from storages in north-west regions is transported to the south of the country,while at the same time methane is tran
228、sported from storages in the south to the north-west of the country(an important industrial region with high demand is the Ruhr Area).A high load flow exceeding the maximum capacity can be seen for the methane grid in the south of the country.We should emphasise that,in splitting the German gas infr
229、astructure,the hydrogen grid was modelled as a stronger system.The high load of the system we observed may also be a result of the simplifications made for the infrastructure model.As such,detailed modelling for the relevant grid regions is required to draw clear conclusions about any bottlenecks.Fu
230、rthermore,it should be kept in mind that the split of the gas infra-structure into a hydrogen and a methane grid could be optimised with a broad range of options,which was not done in the context of this study.HydrogenMethaneFigure 17:Snapshot of a Dunkelflaute situation at the end of January at 6 p
231、.m.(Local,hour 474)in Germany.LoadingNoneNormalHighOverloaded Supply DemandIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices426.Conclusions and recommendationsIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTranspo
232、rt infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices43This joint study by TenneT and Gasunie addresses the requirements and limitations of a future energy system largely based on solar and wind power.Meeting demand with these highly fluctuating energy sources will require both a strong electri
233、city and gas infrastructure,in which gas storage plays a crucial factor in securing supply at every moment in time.This study is intended to support the development of a clear infrastructure strategy that can be of value in the(political)discussions on sector coupling.It should be noted that there a
234、re still some unknowns surrounding the energy transition and although technology is progressing rapidly,some major components of the future energy system are eco-nomically unfeasible under present conditions.However,as technology progresses,costs will continue to fall.Also,if governments continue to
235、 set higher targets for carbon emission reductions,energy producers and consumers will react.To achieve this,however,we must take action now.After all,energy systems are not transformed overnight,but require a long-term commitment.This study applied an innovative modelling approach focused on coupli
236、ng the gas and electricity infrastructure,which enabled it to consider the(future)infrastructures for electricity,methane and hydrogen as well as their mutual dependence for the Netherlands and Germany.A model simulation was used to examine three different energy system-wide supply and demand scenar
237、ios.These scenarios formed the starting point for an exploration of the interplay between electricity and gas,in order to determine the roles and requirements for both energy carriers and illustrate their future application.The most salient findings from the study are:Both the existing electricity a
238、nd gas infrastructure will play a crucial role the energy system of the futureWe have found that electricity and gas will play complementary roles in future energy systems,where wind and solar power are the major primary sources of energy for both Germany and the Netherlands.In the scenarios this re
239、newable energy is mainly supplied to end users as electricity or as a green gas.The advantage of transporting electricity directly to those sectors where electrification is feasible is that it avoids energy conversion and the associated energy loss.Green gases,mean-while,will provide an option for t
240、hose sectors where electrification is harder to achieve.Our analysis shows that coupling electricity and gas will give the energy system the flexibility it needs.The existing gas transmission grid has enough capacity to fulfil its fundamentally changed role in the future energy system,although some
241、technical adaptations are needed due to the different characteristics of hydrogen.Provided that proper guidance can be given to P2G locations,coupling electricity and gas infrastructures may significantly alleviate the long-term expansion needs of the electricity transmission networks.However,furthe
242、r expansion of the electricity grid after 2030 will be required due to the expected growth in demand from end users and the fundamentally changed energy supply structure based on renewable energy sources.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructur
243、e modelConclusionsAppendices44We can conclude that the energy system of the future will require a strong integrated gas and electricity backbone,including storage facilities to secure supply to all forms of final consumption at any moment in time.Although additional electricity storage will be avail
244、able by 2050,only gas storage provides a solution for seasonal storageAn energy system based on wind and solar power will require vast amounts of storage to cope with fluctuations in supply,ranging from frequency restoration to seasonal storage.Significant installed capacities of electricity storage
245、(e.g.batteries,pump storage)have been considered in various scenarios.However,the energy volume of such storage options is still limited.Existing underground gas storage facilities,on the other hand,can absorb large quantities of renewable energy for seasonal and long-term storage via P2G conversion
246、.Gas from storage provides the main source of energy to the entire system during Dunkelflautes.As such,gas and electricity storage are also complementary.Location,capacity and operation of P2G installations are decisive factors and must be aligned with both electricity and gas TSOsCoupling the elect
247、ricity and gas transport infrastructure with P2G instal-lations gives the overall energy system additional flexibility.However,under scenarios with a high penetration of wind and solar power,the use of P2G causes a massive increase in electrical peak load,as a result of which it can worsen the infra
248、structural bottlenecks if the capacities and locations of these P2G installations are not properly aligned with the grids.Our analysis of results indicates that locating P2G installations near renewable production facilities can reduce the need for electricity grid expansion.This is especially the c
249、ase when the overall P2G capacity is relatively high in comparison to renewables.It is not a given however that P2G installations always relieve grid constraints.Significant electricity and gas grid constraints may still arise if,from a grid perspective,the operation of these installations is subopt
250、imal.Therefore,appropriate incentives for the operation of P2G units must be put in place to ensure efficient grid operation.Socially acceptable solutions for an integrated energy infrastructure require a new level of public and political supportIncreasing peak demand in the electricity grid,as is t
251、he case under all scenarios that were researched in this study,will result in an increased use or even overloading of transmission lines.According to the metho-dology chosen for this study,this can lead to a need for additional electrical grid expansions in addition to the long-term measures until 2
252、030 that have already been confirmed,both technically and politically.We have identified two crucial aspects for the realisation and success of the energy transition:political willingness to construct new electricity transmission lines to accommodate the predicted demand growth by end users and the
253、creation of a clear supportive regulatory framework for the integration of P2G plants in the system in order to minimise the total number of grid expansions.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices45Recommendations a
254、nd further work Futurediscussionsonenergytransitionshouldaimforadetailed P2G implementation strategy,with special consideration of the corresponding implications it will have on electricity and gas grids.Thisstrategyshouldalsoincludeworkonthetechnicalandeconomicfeasibility of large-scale P2G facilit
255、ies.Inordertoensureefficientnetworkinvestments,theelectricityandgas TSOs should be involved in drawing up a detailed P2G integration strategy.Tofacilitateanefficienttransition,werecommendthatvariouspath-ways to 2050 described in this study are worked out in further detail.Thefindingsofthisstudycanpr
256、ovideguidancetotheinvestmentplan processes(NEP in Germany and IP/NOP in the Netherlands).ThescenariosusedinthisstudywerebasedonnationalCO2 accounting rules and therefore did not consider the future energy demand for international aviation and sea shipping.Since these forms of transport are predicted
257、 to require substantial amounts of energy in the future for both Germany and the Netherlands,we recommend including them in a follow-up analysis.IntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices46crossing borders in energyTen
258、neT is a leading European electricity transmission system operator(TSO)with its main activities in the Netherlands and Germany.With almost 23,000 kilometres of high-voltage connections we ensure a secure supply of electricity to 41 million end-users.We employ approximately 4,000 people,have a turnov
259、er of EUR 3.9 billion and an asset value totalling EUR 21 billion.TenneT is one of Europes major investors in national and cross-border grid connections on land and at sea,bringing together the Northwest European energy markets and enabling the energy transition.We make every effort to meet the need
260、s of society by being responsible,engaged and connected.Taking power further.TenneT TSO B.V.Marindaal Centre of ExcellenceUtrechtseweg 310,6812 AR Arnhem,The Netherlands+31(0)26 373 11 11communicatietennet.euTenneT TSO GmbHBerneckerstrae 70,95448 Bayreuth,Germany+49(0)921 50740-0N.V.Nederlandse Gasu
261、nieConcourslaan 17,9727 KC GroningenThe Netherlands+31(0)50 521 91 11infogasunie.nlGasunie DeutschlandPasteurallee 1,30655 Hanover,Germany+49(0)511 640 607-0infogasunie.deGasunie is a European gas infrastructure company.Gasunies network is one of the largest high-pressure pipeline networks in Europe
262、,comprising over 15,000 kilometres of pipeline in the Netherlands and northern Germany.Gasunie wants to help accelerate the transition to a CO2-neutral energy supply and believes that gas-related innovations,for instance in the form of renewable gases such as hydrogen and green gas,can make an impor
263、tant contribution.Both existing and new gas infrastructure play a key role here.Gasunie also plays an active part in the development of other energy infrastructure to support the energy transition,such as district heating grids.Crossing borders in energy.February 2019IntroductionMethodologyHomeScena
264、rio frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices47AppendicesIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendices48Appendix I:Methodology overview(NL)_49 Methodology overview(DE)_76Appe
265、ndix II:The Infrastructure model _110Appendix III:Infrastructure Outlook 2050-Dutch study part _115 Infrastructure Outlook 2050-German study part _153Table of contentsIntroductionMethodologyHomeScenario frameworkContentSummaryTransport infrastructureInfrastructure modelConclusionsAppendicesInfrastru
266、ctureOutlook2050 Methodologyoverview(NL)1 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Methodology overview(NL)Linking to combined grid model Scenario A Scenario B Energy system calculations Infrastructure calculations(MCA)Regionalization and selection of snap shots 2 Steps:1.Scenario framework(2050)2.Energy
267、 system calculations 3.Regionalization and selection of snap shots 4.Infrastructure analysis 5.Visualization&analysis of results Visualization&analysis of results Scenario framework Infrastructure analysis Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Methodology overview-explanation For 3 possible end situat
268、ions of a decarbonized Dutch energy system in 2050-local,national and international,the annual energy figures for electricity and gas are derived.The scenarios differ in socio-cultural and political factors influencing the energy transition.These annual energy figures are post-processed to include t
269、emporal(hourly)and spatial(municipality)distributions,and mapping on to the nearest grid node.The modelled infrastructure includes the electricity and Methane grid.The Methane grid is split in to two parts one to transport hydrogen and the other to transport green gas.Then from all 3 scenarios those
270、 hours are selected and analysed that give a high load on the electricity and gas infrastructure.Three specific situations have been identified to be most critical:High RES supply(solar and/or wind)and high(final)demand High RES supply(solar and/or wind)and low(final)demand Low RES supply and high(f
271、inal)demand Next to these so called base cases a number of sensitivities have been analysed to assess the impact of electrolyser locations(power-to-gas(h2),of more severe winter conditions,and of transit and loop flows from international energy transport.3 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook20504 Scena
272、rioframeworkAppendix I InfrastructureOutlook20505 Scenarios:Overall framework National Aim for energy independence relying mostly on centralised RES supply Mostly central supply of wind Strong support of power-to-gas and batteries as flexibility options Limited energy exchange with other countries a
273、llowed International Globally oriented policy with focus on international energy exchange No strong support of extensive RES supply increase Business as usual Local Strong aim for energy independence relying on centralised RES supply Mostly decentral supply of solar Strong support of power-to-gas an
274、d batteries as flexibility options No energy exchange with neighbouring countries*(Based on agreed european reduction goal between reference year 1990 and 2050)min.-95%CO2 emissions until 2050*NvdT national(NL)FNB Strom und Grnes Gas(DE)NvdT international(NL)dena Technologiemix 95%(DE)NvdT regional(
275、NL)Enervis Optimiertes System(DE)Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050“Net voor de toekomst”(CE Delft,2017)NvdT:local,national,international“Erneuerbare Gase-ein Systemupdate der Energiewende“(Enervis,2017)Enervis Leitstudie integrierte Energiewende“(dena,2018)dena Der Wert der Gasinfrastruktur fr di
276、e Energiewende in Deutschland“(Frontier Economics,2017)FNB 6 Scenarios:Study overview Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook20507 Scenario framework(NL):Final energy demand (2017 and three 2050-scenarios)Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook20508 Scenario framework(NL):Scenario numbers Local:Supply dominated b
277、y decentral solar PV Significant amount of PtH2 and batteries National:Supply dominated by wind offshore Significant amount of PtH2 and batteries International:Mix of renewable and fossil supply Almost no domestic flexibility options available and focus on import/export of energy Supply Flexibility
278、Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook20509 Scenarios:Concrete dataset for 2050(NL)CategoryUnit2017*NvdT_regNvdT_natNvdT_intWind Offshore126536Wind Onshore316145Solar3843416Hard coal5007Natural/green gas20271613Hydrogen0413Others2000Sum of supply3315711849Households102597984Electricity23403231Methane79151
279、226Hydrogen053627Service sector69364650Electricity33323232Methane36358Hydrogen001011IndustryElectricity30505023Methane91447Hydrogen0585825Transport2404148Electricity2251913Methane10013Hydrogen0152323Agriculture23111111Electricity9111111Methane14000Hydrogen0000Other demand241023166Electric
280、ity24121212Methane0861849Hydrogen0415Sum of demand341360321314Power-to-H2075602Power-to-Methane0000Power-to-Heat0000Power-to-Liquid0000Battery storage060505Pumped storage0000Sum of flexibilty01351107SupplyDemandFlexibilityGWTWhGWAppendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050 Energysystemcalculations(NL)10 App
281、endix I InfrastructureOutlook2050 Energy system calculations(NL):“Energy Transition Model”(ETM)Analysis,filtering and snapshot selection Hourly time series(per application)NvdT-scenarios applied to ETM 11 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Main model features:Model to determine total energy generat
282、ion,demand and interrelations between both on a national level Comprehensive possibilities to define scenarios Simplified merit-order model to determine hourly dispatch of generation units and flexibility options Instant calculation of target figures related to energy use(e.g.CO2-emissions,costs,sha
283、re of RES,)Data export and graphical analysis functionalities Energy system calculations(NL):“Energy Transition Model”(ETM)Link:https:/ Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050 Energy system calculations:“Merit order”of flexibility options 13 Pump storage Power-to-H2 Battery storage Power to Heat Curtai
284、lment Storage of energy in water reservoirs Short term storage of energy Conversion of electricity to hydrogen Long term storage of energy Conversion of electricity to heat Short term storage of energy Direct storage of electricity in batteries Short term storage of energy Shuttoff of supply No inte
285、gration of RES generation Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050 Energy system calculations:General scheme coupling Wind/solar Demand Power-to-H2 Pump storage Battery storage Gas power plants Power plants Other flexibility Supply Demand H2-to-Methane Hydrogen gas storage Supply Demand Hydrogen gas sto
286、rage Residual load Residual load Residual load Electricity Hydrogen Methane Only modeled for DE Coupling(Power-to-Gas,power plants)causes interdependencies between infrastructure systems Balancing of a volatile electrical system requires both short-term(pump storage,batteries)and long-term storage(p
287、ower-to-gas)of energy Balancing the hydrogen and methane system requires suitable gas storage possibilities InfrastructureOutlook2050 Regionalizationofscenariodata(NL)15 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(NL):Base assumptions for distribution keys 16 Appendix I Category Distribution
288、 key(per mun.)Source Wind onshore Installed capacities wind onshore 2017+provincial goals for 2020 Klimaatmonitor.nl,rvo.nl Wind offshore Foreseeable wind offshore connection capacities TenneT Solar PV Installed capacities solar 017 Klimaatmonitor.nl Hard coal Installed capacities hard coal 2017 Ten
289、neT power plant list Natural gas Installed capacities natural gas 2017 TenneT power plant list Green gas Installed capacities natural gas 2017 TenneT power plant list Hydrogen Installed capacities natural gas 2017 TenneT power plant list Other Household demand/battery storages households Number of h
290、ouseholds Klimaatmonitor.nl Buildings demand Energy demand of buildings 2017 Klimaatmonitor.nl Industry demand/Power-to-Heat Energy demand of industry 2017 Klimaatmonitor.nl Agriculture demand Energy demand agriculture 2017 Klimaatmonitor.nl Transport demand/battery storages vehicles Number of vehic
291、les Klimaatmonitor.nl Other demand Power-to-H2 Variable Storage(hydrogen/methane)Suitable geographical locations GasUnie Import/Export Import/export capacities of interconnectors TenneT,GasUnie Green gas/hydrogen production Installed capacities biomass 2017 Klimaatmonitor.nl InfrastructureOutlook205
292、0Regionalization(NL):Base assumptions for distribution keys Wind onshore Solar PV Wind offshore Gas power plants Household demand/batteries Industry demand/PtHeat Agriculture demand Transport demand/batteries 17 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook205018 Regionalization(NL):Base assumptions for distribu
293、tion keys Import/Export(E)Green gas/green hydrogen Import/Export(G,H)Storage(G,H)Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(NL):Linking of municipalities to grid nodes Linking of municipalities to 220/380kV grid nodes:Filtering of grid nodes Nearest neighbour“approach considering underlying
294、 110kV/150kV infrastructure Manual validation/adjustment using real grid map Electrical grid:19 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(NL):Linking of municipalities to grid nodes Linking of municipalities to Methane grid nodes:Filtering of grid nodes Nearest neighbour“approach Manual va
295、lidation/adjustment using real grid map Natural/green Methane grid:20 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(NL):Linking of municipalities to grid nodes Linking of municipalities to Methane grid nodes:Filtering of grid nodes Nearest neighbour“approach Manual validation/adjustment using
296、real grid map Hydrogen grid:21 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(NL):Exemplaric results Wind onshore Solar PV 22 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook205023 SnapshotselectionAppendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot definition and considerations General definition snapshot“:Situation
297、(hour“)with a specific(regional)occurance of supply,demand,use of flexibility options and exchange with neighbouring countries Considerations for selecting snapshots:The operating envelope of the infrastructure:What are the maximum capacities the infrastructure should meet?The transport momentum of
298、energy:Are transport of large quantities of energy across long distances foreseen that result in a high load on the infrastructure?The regional distribution of energy:Do future projected supply and demand locations combine with existing(and foreseen extension of)infrastructure?The choice and(regiona
299、l)locations for flexibility options(especially electrolyzers)determines to an extent the load on the electrical or gas infrastructure The selection is scenario dependent due to different assumptions about supply,demand,flexibility and exchange possibilities Additional sensitivities based on selected
300、 base snapshots allow to investigate impacts of singular changes in scenario assumptions 24 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot selection:operating envelop The operating envelope determines the(max)capacity requirements of the infrastructure Supply,consisting of a high share of intermittent
301、 RES should meet demand (in this analysis matched on a hourly basis)Three main corners of the operating envelope were identified:1.High RES supply and high(final)demand 2.High RES supply and low(final)demand 3.Low RES supply and high(final)demand Flex options balance the gap between supply and deman
302、d Furthermore,we can distinguish offshore wind,onshore wind and solar RES For each a different set of flex options could be selected HIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionExportCurtailment#GWHighdemandconventional25 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot selection:Infrastructure
303、operating envelop Situation A:High wind and/or solar supply High final demand HIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionExportCurtailment#GWHighdemandconventionalHIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionp-2-h2ExportCurtailment#GWCase:HighRESWINDandlowconventionaldemandLowdemandc
304、onventionalSituation B:High wind and/or solar supply Low final demand NOTE:The need for flexibility options could be larger compared to situation 1 Situation C:Low wind and/or solar supply High final demand NOTE:thus could result in a need for back-up power plants 26 Selection of suitable snapshot h
305、ours“that fullfill the defined criteria Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Energy system modeling(ETM):Only rudimental consideration of energy exchange with neighbouring countries Only one national weather year pattern for RES infeed and demand Simplified determination of power plant dispatch(merit
306、 order)without consideration of further real world“boundary conditions Regionalization:Fixed distribution keys for supply,demand,flexibility and exchange categories mostly based on todays distribution and according to statistical data Infrastructure modeling&calculations:Underlying energy infrastruc
307、ture not modeled(electrical grid 220kV,Methane grid Sensitivity)IAEW Aachen Storage(hydrogen/methane)Current installed capacities/WGV GASUNIE Import/Export Import/export capacities of interconnectors TenneT,GASUNIE Green gas production Currently installed capacities(biomass)TenneT H2-to-CH4 Based on
308、 the distribution of bio-methane production GASUNIE InfrastructureOutlook2050Regionalization(DE):Base assumptions for distribution keys 17 Appendix I Wind onshore*Solar PV*Wind offshore Gas power plants Industry demand Buildings demand Transport demand Household demand InfrastructureOutlook205018 Re
309、gionalization(DE):Base assumptions for distribution keys Appendix I Power-to-H2(E,H)Import/Export(E)Import/Export(G,H)Pump storage(E)Gas storage(G)Gas storage(H)Power-to-H2(E,H)Power-to-H2(E,H)Enervis FNB dena InfrastructureOutlook205019 Regionalization(DE):Base assumptions for distribution keys App
310、endix I H2-to-CH4(G)InfrastructureOutlook205020 Appendix I Infrastructuremodeling(DE)InfrastructureOutlook205021 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Assumed topologies Appendix I Electrical grid-Based on todays natural gas grid-Including Expansions of NEP2018-Gas grid split into hydrogen and methane grid-Hy
311、drogen grid designed as a strong back-bone -220/380kV grid considered-Todays grid+additional certain grid expansion measures until 2030(confirmed grid development plan 2017)-Flow calculations with 70%of line capacities to estimate n-1“operation Hydrogen grid Methane grid-Methane grid designed to sat
312、isfy transport to end-customer(heat demand)Remark:Line thickness indicates amount of maximum transport capacity InfrastructureOutlook205022 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Methodology(electricity)Appendix I Electrical grid model (Officially confirmed grid for 2030,German grid development plan 2017)Elect
313、rical 220/380kV grid(800 grid nodes)Filtering of relevant grid nodes Geographical data on grid node locations Simplified grid infrastructure (38+13 nodes)Linking of grid nodes to NUTS-2 regions and determination of connections between these Infrastructure/grid model (MCA tool)InfrastructureOutlook20
314、5023 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Methodology(electricity)Appendix I Electrical power flows are in reality mainly dependent on impedance of lines MCA tool uses capacity and length of lines to determine flow patterns Capacities:Summing up of line capacities to achieve equivalent transmission capacity
315、of edge (e.g.2 x 1 GW line cap.=2 GW)Edge length:Average of corresponding line lengths and division through number of lines Le=Weighted length of edge e Li=Length of line i n=number of lines Ce Capacity of edge e Ci=Capacity of line i n=number of lines InfrastructureOutlook205024 Infrastructure mode
316、ling(DE):Methodology(electricity)Appendix I Line capacities(2030)Weighted lengths(2030)Line thickness indicates amount of edge capacity Line thickness indicates weighted length of edges InfrastructureOutlook205025 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Methodology(electricity)Appendix I Line capacities(2030)We
317、ighted lengths(2030)Line thickness indicates amount of edge capacity Line thickness indicates weighted length of edges InfrastructureOutlook205026 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Methodology(gas)Appendix I NUTS2 Regions VGE MAP 2010+Information NEP -Merged the NUTS2 Regions with a gas infrastructure map
318、 manually“-Focus on the connection between the borders InfrastructureOutlook205027 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Methodology(gas)Appendix I Examination of the boundaries between the NUTS2 regions Considered Pipelines:max.Pressure 40 bar Diameter 400 mm Categorization hydrogen/methane:Focus on hydrogen
319、 Loop lines methane Import/Export dependent on country Hydrogen:RU,NO Hydrogen/Methane:NL,DK,FR,IT,AU,CH Interconnection points interregional modelled Example:Hamburg Capacity assumptions:-pressure(75%of max.pressure)-flow velocity(5 m/s)-gas quality hydrogen 80%of high calorific gas Capacity only d
320、ependents on:diameter,pressure,velocity,gas quality Outlook:allocation methane/hydrogen of the pipelines could be changed implementation of GIS could automate the process InfrastructureOutlook205028 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Interface to MCA-tool Appendix I Modeling in MCA InfrastructureOutlook205
321、029 Infrastructure modeling(DE):Interface to MCA-tool Appendix I Standardized identifiers(IDs)for each grid node:E-RXX G-RXX H-RXX Standardized identifiers(IDs)for each line between starting(X)and end point(Y):E-RXXRYY G-RXXRYY H-RXXRYY ID of NUTS-2-region(e.g.DE12“=12“)ID of infrastructure type Cou
322、pling of infrastructure:Power-to-H2 Hydrogen/gas power plants H2-to-CH4 InfrastructureOutlook205030 SnapshotselectionAppendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot definition and considerations General definition snapshot“:Situation(hour“)with a specific(regional)occurance of supply,demand,use of flex
323、ibility options and exchange with neighbouring countries Considerations for selecting snapshots:The operating envelope of the infrastructure:What are the maximum capacities the infrastructure should meet?The transport momentum of energy:Are transport of large quantities of energy across long distanc
324、es foreseen that result in a high load on the infrastructure?The regional distribution of energy:Do future projected supply and demand locations combine with existing(and foreseen extension of)infrastructure?The choice and(regional)locations for flexibility options(especially electrolyzers)determine
325、s to an extent the load on the electrical or gas infrastructure The selection is scenario dependent due to different assumptions about supply,demand,flexibility and exchange possibilities Additional sensitivities based on selected base snapshots allow to investigate impacts of singular changes in sc
326、enario assumptions 31 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot selection:operating envelop The operating envelope determines the(max)capacity requirements of the infrastructure Supply,consisting of a high share of intermittent RES should meet demand (in this analysis matched on a hourly basis)Th
327、ree main corners of the operating envelope were identified:1.High RES supply and high(final)demand 2.High RES supply and low(final)demand 3.Low RES supply and high(final)demand Flex options balance the gap between supply and demand Furthermore,we can distinguish offshore wind,onshore wind and solar
328、RES For each a different set of flex options could be selected HIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionExportCurtailment#GWHighdemandconventional32 Appendix I InfrastructureOutlook2050Snapshot selection:Infrastructure operating envelop Situation A:High wind and/or solar supply High final
329、 demand HIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionExportCurtailment#GWHighdemandconventionalHIGHRESFlexoptions:DemandmanagementBatteryConversionp-2-h2ExportCurtailment#GWCase:HighRESWINDandlowconventionaldemandLowdemandconventionalSituation B:High wind and/or solar supply Low final demand
330、NOTE:The need for flexibility options could be larger compared to situation 1 Situation C:Low wind and/or solar supply High final demand NOTE:thus could result in a need for back-up power plants 33 Selection of suitable snapshot hours“that fullfill the defined criteria Appendix I InfrastructureOutlo
331、ok2050Energy system modeling(ETM):Only rudimental consideration of energy exchange with neighbouring countries Only one national weather year pattern for RES infeed and demand Simplified determination of power plant dispatch(merit order)without consideration of further real world“boundary conditions
332、 Regionalization:Fixed distribution keys for supply,demand,flexibility and exchange categories mostly based on todays distribution and according to statistical data Infrastructure modeling&calculations:Underlying energy infrastructure not modeled(electrical grid 220kV,Methane grid Qmax.A factor of 1
333、0 or 100 usually suffices to attain the effect.In principle it is even possible here to discriminate between lines or line types(e.g.gas or electricity),but this flexibility of the model has not been used in this study.See Figure 5 for a pictorial representation of the load function of a line.Figure 5:Piecewise linear load function of a line of length L.A longer line will have a steeper load funct