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1、What the hail is going on?!Why severe convective storm loss has been increasing Using catastrophe models to quantify current and future risk Leveraging catastrophe models and claims experience to manage exposure to frequency perils2 Why severe convective storm loss has been increasing Using catastro
2、phe models to quantify current and future risk Leveraging catastrophe models and claims experience to manage exposure to frequency perilsAgenda for“What the hail?!”2023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Amy Green|June 5,2023SCS trends42023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Large SCS losses have beenincreasing exponentially
3、Weather shocks on the rise-5 10 15 20 2503 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22BillionsPCS Personal Lines Severe Storm Event History Substantial growth in PCS SCS losses:+11.5%annual growth rate 7x growth since 200352023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.What is driving the increase inSCS lo
4、ss?Damageability TrendsAging housing stockLoss cost trendsUnexplained Neighboritis,unscrupulous contractorsRegional hail frequency changesExposure TrendsHousing increases and TIVPopulation shift/urban sprawlClimateAre there more events or are they worse?Tornado vs.hail trends62023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER
5、&CO.Rates of tornado activity have been stableNumber of TornadoesTornado frequencies have not increased over recent historyMore destructive/higher magnitude tornadoes have also been in line with historical levels05000200020004200520062007200820092000162017
6、20021#of TornadosEF5EF4EF3EF2EF1EF002040608020022003200420052006200720082009200001920202021#of TornadoesEF5EF4EF372023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.-100 200 30020002000420052006200720082009200001920202021Mill
7、ions11”Radar data show no clear trend of changing hail propensity over recent history82023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Exposure changes account for only part of the increase Adjusting for inflation and housing unit growth by state accounts for 1/3 of the increase in losses8.5%annual growth rate still unex
8、plained4.5x growth since 2003Impact on losses=3.0%Losses are personal lines only;as of December 2022Trending adjusts historical losses for exposure growth based on housing unit by state(BLS census data)and CPI-5 10 15 20 25 30030405060708095122BillionsPCS Personal Lines Severe
9、Storm Event HistoryTrended for housing unit growth&CPI92023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%TXCOFLSDGATNNEMNIALAAllSCSStatesAllStatesGrowth of Housing Units%(10-20)UrbanSuburbanRuralExposure trends:Suburbs continue to expandSource:2010&2020 BLS census dataUrban,7%S
10、uburban,62%Rural,31%Housing Unit Growth(10-20)Urban:within 3 miles of major city(450k population)Suburban:between 3-30 miles of major city,with 40 housing units per km2Rural:all else Majority of housing growth is concentrated in suburban areas Larger concentrations of exposure leads to increasing PC
11、S losses102023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Exposure trends:Suburban increase in TexasDallasAustinSan AntonioHouston+100%growthAustin/SA+50%growthDFW+45%growthHoustonUrban/Suburban areas-2000 Urban/Suburban areas-2020Areas with 40 housing units/km2 Substantial growth in areas with significant density Conti
12、nued urban sprawl drives increasing exposure to PCS loss events112023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Impact of urban sprawl0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%-20152016-2020Distribution of PCS losses by stateAll OtherIAMNILCOTXIncreasing proportion of PCS losses coming from Texas and ColoradoCities
13、 with highest growth located in areas with high SCS riskImpact on PCS losses=1.5%122023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Hail severity trend exceeds CPI Gallagher Re research shows hail claim severity outpaced inflation over the past decadeIncrease in cost of materials,use of independent adjusters,and litigati
14、on No evidence of an increasing propensity to file a claim Impact on losses=3.75%$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Hail claim severity trend(5.3%annual)CPI inflation(1.6%annual)Average hail claim severityGallagher Re dataset of 400,0
15、00+hail claimsStudy controls for differences in deductibles,roof characteristics,carrier and state of loss132023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Aging housing stock contributes to increased SCS claimsGallagher Re research shows that older homes are 3.5x as likely to generate a hail claim vs new homes US housi
16、ng starts dropped off significantly after mid-2000s boom and remained low through 2020Current housing stock is much older than it was in 2000Impact on losses=1.5%Source:US Census-American Community Survey0%5%10%15%20%200020102020Newer homes as a percent of US Housing Stock0-5 years old6-10 years old
17、0.01.02.03.04.0123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20RelativityHome Age in YearsHail Claim Frequency:Age of HomeSource:Gallagher Re predictive model142023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.SCS loss trend:Key findings1.75%1.50%3.75%1.50%3.00%Components of 11.5%SCS Trend4.5%increase in housing stock&inflation
18、,movement to SCS prone areas,and urban sprawl1.75%unexplained from social inflation,Neighboritis,unscrupulous contractors,increasing square footage,and/or regional hail frequency changes5.25%due to severity trends outpacing CPI and aging housing stock No evidence of increase in countrywide SCS event
19、s driven by climate change Some evidence of regional hail increases,particularly in TXSource:PCS personal loss as of December 2022Food for thought:which of these dont relate to understanding an individual companys losses?For example,urban sprawl explains why there are more PCS losses,but not overall
20、 aggregate losses152023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Establishing a custom view of hail risk is critical to pricing and underwriting SCSRecent SCS loss is volatile and increasingVendor models predictions are out of step with recent experienceCatastrophe models understate hail frequencyHail loss is the larg
21、est component of overall SCS loss and highly correlated to the total162023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.General Disclaimer for all Analytical WorkThis analysis has been prepared by Gallagher Re on the condition that it shall be treated as strictly confidential and shall not be communicated in whole,in part
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