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1、Quarterly Trend ReportGlobal Q1-2023Authors:FCM Consulting Global TeamFelicity BurkeAshley GutermuthJuan Antonio IglesiasAbout the ReportThis FCM Consulting quarterly report draws on global data sourced from FCM and Flight Centre Travel Group corporate booking data for travel from January to March 2
2、023(Q1-2023).The report uses Ciriumaviation schedule data as of April 24th,2023.Airfare pricing variations exclude all taxes.The hotel average room rate(ARR)quoted is the average booked rate using FCM and Flight Centre Travel Group corporate booking data.Variations in rates booked are a reflection o
3、f seasonality,supply,and demand,booking lead times,and variations in exchange rates.Unless otherwise stated,all fares and rates are reported in US dollars.STR hotel data and content quoted as of April 26th,2023.JET FUELChinese flight activity climbs causing spikes in fuel demand and pricesINFLATION
4、RATES 2023 rates predicted to be 6.6%down on 8.8%in 2022CORPORATENeed to KnowQ1-2023 continues the positive travel momentum of H2-2022.This edition of FCM Consultings Quarterly Trend Report explores the trends and changes that will shape 2023.Travel supply and demand for 2023 is predicted to moderat
5、e after a year of rapid growth.Inflation is predicted to decline from the highs of 2022 however,costs remain high.The traveler remains at the heart of the journey,so we explore their buying trends and share the benefits of in-person meetings.We encourage you to use this report to help understand the
6、 external changes to your corporate travel program.AIR VS RAIL VS CARA look at cost,time,and carbon emissions when traveling from point A to point BMEET IN-PERSONTrust,innovation,and faster decision-making,are just some benefits BUYING TRENDSTraveler buying trends focus on securing best options and
7、priceAIRLINE NDCThe change is happening.Is it ready?CORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeaways Q1-2023INFLATIONHigh global inflation rates of 8.8%in 2022 are predicted to fall to 6.6%in 2023 and 4.3%in 2024.There remains continued pressure on the price of products,utilities,services,and general cost of living.Ho
8、w does the travel industry respond?The entire travel industry ecosystem has reviewed operating costs,changed pricing,upgraded technology to drive efficiency,reduced underlying costs and removed disruption and risks.AVIATION FUELDuring Jan-2023 jet fuel prices surged above$130 per barrel as Chinese f
9、light activity tripled within a month.Jet fuel is$95 per barrel*.AIR vs CAR vs RAILTime,cost,and carbon emissions are the three factors considered when choosing modes of transportation for a work trip.For short trips,the cheapest and lowest emitters in transportation are walking and riding a bike.Ho
10、wever,for long trips,air,rail,and car travel are our usual options so how do you choose?Page 6,reports the measure of 11 city-pairs comparing time,cost and carbon across air,rail,and car rental.JAN-2016 MAR-2023JET FUEL&CRUDE OIL PRICES($/BARREL)*IATA Fuel Monitor reported the week ending April 21st
11、,2023,reporting in US$CORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeaways Q1-2023AIRLINE DISTRIBUTIONAs American Airlines removed content from the GDS early April 2023,it marked a turning point the airline industry has been waiting 11 years for.And soon,more airlines will make a similar step change.NDC is exciting,as we
12、are finally upgrading a 1960s system design.Before NDC is optimized for corporate travel there are areas needing review:re-shopping,re-booking,pre-trip approval workflow,&OBT readiness,to name a few.GLOBAL BOOKING TRENDSQ1-2023 corporate travel demandremained strong despite mixed economic conditions
13、.Securing options and booking lower prices are driving corporate travelers to book online,early.MEETING IN-PERSONCitied as the#1 reason for corporate travel,having a meeting in-person with clients and colleagues is important!WHY?An in-person business meeting will:Build trust and rapport fasterDelive
14、r/receive clearer communication Facilitate faster decision-makingImprove meeting engagement Ignite effective teamworkTap into creativity and innovation quicker(Summary from CBI-Economics 2023)DOMESTIC BOOKINGTRENDSQ1-2023%var.to Q1-2022ONLINE ADOPTION72%27%ADV.BOOKING DAYS19.0 2.1AVG.DAYS AWAY2.9SAM
15、E*NDC=New Distribution Capability is an initiative by IATA,for the travel industry,supporting the development of airlines to improve and enhance communication through XML feeds to expand retail air sales and content.Benefits include faster dynamic pricing,personalized content and broader choice of a
16、irline ticket packaging.AIRRAILCAR RENTALTIMECOSTCARBONTIMECOSTCARBONTIMECOSTCARBONCOPENHAGEN BERLIN110$317110840$25426780$860146FRANKFURT MUNICH110$483148456$2091480$830136LONDON PARIS160$407106280$4354720$950158LONDON AMSTERDAM180$312112498$3816840$1,071192MADRID BARCELONA160$166146330$17228780$1,
17、011212SYDNEY CANBERRA120$522116500$18120360$84598TOKYO OSAKA180$189122300$7454720$1,101170BEIJING GUANGZHOU400$950568960$866202520$1,357734BOSTON PHILADELPHIA180$458136790$32374660$598168PITTSBURGH CHICAGO202$2712001140$28494840$761256TORONTO MONTREAL160$242154622$17328720$770192NOTATIONSTable repre
18、sents return travel for one passengerTravel to/from home/office is excluded.Travel booked two weeks in advance,traveling to arrive Tuesday morning leaving Wednesday evening.Car rental booking for three days due to travel time.Travel is economy class and car rental is a 4-door sedan,unlimited miles.F
19、uel costs included.Time reported in minutesCost reported in US$.Carbon emissions reported in KG CO2e units.COMPARING OPTIONSTIME,PRICE,AND CARBON EMISSIONSFCM Consulting have compared travel three ways on comparable routes.Not all modes of transportation are practical from a standpoint of time or co
20、st.As an individual traveler,rail is the lowest carbon emitter,followed by air.Traveling in a group,a car is more efficient.AVIATIONKey Takeaways Q1-2023CAPACITY&FAIR FARESAir travel demand globally in 2023 is forecast to be 85.5%of 2019 levels.Airlines are working to balance pricing against the flu
21、idity of seats to offer,traveler demand and airline operating costs(particularly jet fuel).After 2022,a year of significant imbalance in supply and demand,2023 air travel will stabilize,seeing added capacity in H1-2023 and airfares moderating in H2-2023.INTERNATIONAL LAGGINGGlobal domestic seats off
22、ered in Q1-2023 rose above Q1-2019 levels by+0.9%and international seats fell short by-18.6%.APAC International seats well below 2019.SAF OPTIONSFCM Consulting has been researching actionable sustainability initiatives available from airlines.We have listed if an airline offers a green fare,whether
23、the airline has published a SAF usage target,and other initiatives that allow travelers to proactively invest in SAF*.Q2-2023 vs Q2-2019DOMESTICINTERNATIONALAPAC+9.3%-27.5%EMEA-3.8%-4.3%LATAM+5.8%-3.6%NAM+1.6%-2.8%AIRLINEGREEN FARESAF PURCHASESAF COMMITMENTAir France KLMO10%by 2030American AirlinesO
24、O10%by 2030British AirwaysO10%by 2030DeltaOO10%by 2030EmiratesOO-EtihadOO-Lufthansa-QantasO10%by 2030Qatar AirwaysOO10%by 2030Scandinavian Air.Fossil free dom.operationsSingapore AirlinesOO-United AirlinesO-IATA DEC-22 report*Sustainable Aviation FuelAVIATION-GLOBALTRAVEL NORMALIZES0M100M200M300M400
25、M500M600MJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecGLOBAL SEATSSEATS-MILLIONSFCM Consulting Analytics as of April 24th,2023Source Data:Cirium Air SeatsLong range aviation forecasts are subject to change.Therefore,we recommend only observing schedules 4-6 weeks ahead.Q1-2023 seat capacity was+2.1%on Q4-202
26、2,and-6.8%on Q1-2019.Early forecasts indicate air capacity offered in 2023 will be-2.5%on 2019 volumes.The region with the highest seat growth in Q1-2023 vs Q4-2019 was Asia+12.2%,most other regions averaging+2%growth,with the exception of Europe having a-8.7%seat decline as the region balanced chan
27、ges in demand.Northern hemisphere summer will drive demand in Q2&Q3-2023.2022220232023 ForecastAIR CANADA87%AIR FRANCE89%AIR NEW ZEALAND94%AMERICAN AIRLINES99%BRITISH AIRWAYS88%CATHAY PACIFIC78%CHINA EASTERN95%DELTA AIRLINES97%EMIRATES87%ETIHAD AIRWAYS74%LATAM104%LUFTHANSA80%QANTAS AIRWAY
28、S97%QATAR AIRWAYS97%SINGAPORE AIRLINES97%SOUTH AFRICAN AIR.18%THAI AIRWAYS47%UNITED AIRLNES102%VIRGIN ATLANTIC96%VIRGIN AUSTRALIA89%2023COMPARED TO 2019AIRLINE SEATFORECASTFor 2023 LATAM Airlines Group+4%and United Airlines+2%are predicted to surpass 2019 seats offered.The forecast across the 20 maj
29、or airlines report a 94%return of seats in 2023 vs 2019.Eight airlines have reduced their 2023 schedules since our Q4-2022 report:Air France,American Airlines,Cathay Pacific,Delta Airlines,Lufthansa,Qantas Airways,Qatar Airways andVirgin Australia.Airline seats offered full calendar year 2023 compar
30、ed to 2019.FCM Consulting Analytics as of April 24th,2023.Source Data:CiriumINTERNATIONAL AIRFARE INCREASESAirfares compared 2-months of 2023 vs 2019FCM Consulting Analytics as of April 24th,2023.Airfare variations exclude all taxes.Economy class excludes full Y class.Source Data:CiriumAUSTRALIA/NEW
31、 ZEALAND24%11%LATIN AMERICA13%9%AFRICA24%18%ASIA23%15%8%14%EUROPEMIDDLE EAST31%15%NORTH AMERICA14%15%PAID AIRFARE COMPARISON JAN&FEB 2023 VS 2019 SAME PERIOD18%14%DISC ECONOMYBUSINESSGLOBAL AVERAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRFARESFIRST 2-MONTHS OF 2023BUSINESS CLASS$2280$339 VS 2019DISC ECONOMY CLASS$506$56 V
32、S 2019*Business and Discounted Economy class paid airfare variances measured across 370 international city pairs.For the period January to February 2023 compared to 2019 same period.GLOBAL AVERAGE Domestic and International AirfaresAirfare%change in January&February 2023 vs 2019 same periodAUSTRALIA
33、/NEW ZEALANDECONOMYBUSINESSAKL-JFK5%29%AKL-SYD 17%24%MEL-SYD1%12%SIN-SYD 15%18%LAX-SYD6%22%LATIN AMERICAECONOMYBUSINESSCGH-JFK 16%NACGH-LHR1%FLATEWR-SDU 26%6%FRA-SDU7%NASDU-YYZ 26%48%FCM Consulting Analytics as of April 24th,2023.Airfare variations exclude all taxes.Economy class excludes full Y cla
34、ss.Source Data:CiriumASIAECONOMYBUSINESSDXB-SHA9%47%BOM-DEL 15%9%BOM-LHR 26%20%PVG-SIN 10%20%LAX-PEK 11%11%MIDDLE EAST/AFRICAECONOMYBUSINESSCPT-DXB2%40%DXB-FRA 29%33%DXB-SYD 17%24%FRA-JNB 17%15%JNB-LHR 14%14%NORTH AMERICAECONOMYBUSINESSBOS-PVG 13%6%EWR-ORD6%5%FRA-JFK 18%6%JFK-LAX 49%2%JFK-YYC4%8%EUR
35、OPEECONOMYBUSINESSDUB-LHR 25%43%FRA-MAD 13%12%JFK-LHR 17%6%LHR-MAD 18%13%LHR-PVG 10%6%RISING RATESQ1-2023 has seen all six regions surpass Q4-2022 ARR by 4-26%Asia(26%),MEA(22%),Europe(19%),Latin America(12%),Australia/New Zealand(12%)andNorth America(4%).Globally hotel occupancy for the quarter was
36、 60.46%,only 4%points below the occupancy levels of 2019.HOTELS FOR ALL PEOPLEOne of the most successful travelerofferings in recent years is the lifestyle hotel;focused on travelerswho want to experience something unique.Ingredients of a lifestyle hotel include lobbies that encourage interaction,of
37、fering green initiatives,having slick technology and offering wellbeing choices.Newer hotels such as Lyf Collingwood,Melbourne or The Hoxton,New York are challenging legacy hotels.2023/24 CONTRACTINGFCM Consulting are seeing an increase in the number of corporate clients looking to outsource their h
38、otel contracting for a more formal RFP process.With corporate travel patterns re-established,travel budgets tightened and higher than usual hotel rates,corporations are needing to take a fresh look at their hotel strategy and secure different hotel options to suit theirtravel program and budgets for
39、 23/24.ACCOMMODATION Key Takeaways Q1-2023Source:STR.2022 CoStar GroupSeveral international markets are now growing occupancyGlobal occupancy for Q1-2023 was 60.46%which is 96%recovered to 2019 same periodOver 100%80 100%50-79%Under 50%Numbers reported are a comparison of hoteloccupancy(STD),indexed
40、 to March YTD 2019,vs March YTD 2023Data sourcing STR.For more information:%Occupancy Recovery 2023 vs 2019$295LOS ANGELES$203 VANCOUVER$307 BOSTON$279TORONTO$150EDMONTON$156OTTAWA$360NEW YORK$196MEXICO CITY$229 CHICAGO$233SEATTLE$214 DENVER$226DALLAS$205ATLANTA$280MIAMIClick to add textNORTHAMERICA
41、AccommodationQ1-2023Corporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vsQ4-2022 4%Q1-2022 5%$USDRATES CONTINUE TO VARY ACROSS CITIES.OVERALL A REGIONAL RATE DECLINE OF+$7 VS Q4-2022.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022 CHICAGO 11%LOS ANGELES 1%NEW YORK 16%MEXICO CITY8%VANCOUVER5%$263LAS VEGAS$131PHOENIX$337WASHIN
42、GTON DCRATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022$170 BUENOS AIRES$141RIO$55 SALVADOR$169 SANTIAGO$78BOGOTA$160=LIMA$166QUITO$157CARTAGENA$128SANTA CRUZ$109 SAO PAULO$70SAN JUANLATIN AMERICAAccommodationQ1-2023STRONG DEMAND IN THE REGION SAW AN OVERALL REGIONAL RATE RISE OF+$7 VS Q4-2022.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022
43、BUENOS AIRES7%LIMA2%RIO 45%SANTIAGO 27%SAO PAULO 25%Corporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vsQ4-2022 12%Q1-2022 3%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022ASIAAccommodationQ1-2023AS CHINA OPENED BORDERS THE REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION WAS SIGNIFICANT AS RATES ROSE+$34 VS Q4-2022.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022
44、 CHENNAI 22%HANOI9%MANILA 37%KUALA LUMPUR 37%SHANGHAI 27%SINGAPORE 11%$294TOKYO$156BEIJING$144JAKARTA$137GUANGZHOU$133SHANGHAI$224HONG KONG$151HANOI$153MANILA$132BANGKOK$200TAIPEI$239SEOUL$190BANGALORE$106CHENNAI$150DELHI$269SINGAPORE$106KUALA LUMPURCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vsQ4
45、-2022 26%Q1-2022 20%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022AUSTRALIA&NEW ZEALANDAccommodationQ1-2023HIGH SEASON DEMAND PUSHES RATES UP+$17 VS Q4-2022.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022 ADELAIDE 5%AUCKLAND 27%KALGOORLIE 15%MELBOURNE 17%SYDNEY 16%WELLINGTON 25%$202SYDNEY$176MELBOURNE$145PERTH$162BRISBANE$125DARWIN$152
46、ADELAIDE$163HOBART$167=CANBERRA$165QUEENSTOWN$198AUCKLAND$147CAIRNS$184WELLINGTON$150CHRISTCHURCH$124P.MORESBY$156KALGOORLIE$166ORANGE$176GERALDTONCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vsQ4-2022 12%Q1-2022 4%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022EUROPEAccommodationQ1-2023$171FRANKFURT$263PARIS$230DU
47、BLIN$271 LONDON$184MADRID$116ABERDEEN$136MANCHESTER$225AMSTERDAM$125MOSCOW$182ISTANBUL$124 BUCHAREST$221MILAN$191BERLIN$127BUDAPEST$187STOCKHOLM$194OSLO$139MUNICHCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vs$USDA STRONG RISE IN RATES ACROSS THE REGION OF+$26 VS Q4-2022.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022
48、AMSTERDAM 16%BERLIN 68%DUBLIN 6%FRANKFURT 50%LONDON4%MADRID 22%Q4-2022 19%Q1-2022 7%$132=GOTHENBURG$220BRUSSELS$137ZURICH$219BARCELONA$164ATHENS$110PORTORATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAAccommodationQ1-2023RATE RISES CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION+$17 VS Q4-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-202
49、2 ABU DHABI 26%CAIRO9%CAPE TOWN 86%DUBAI 19%JOHANNESBURG 8%RIYADH6%Corporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q1-2023 vs$USD$116JOHANNESBURG$209NAIROBI$262CAIRO$211LAGOS$270 RIYADH$285DUBAI$168DOHA$285ABIDJAN$147RABAT$216LUANDA$303TEL AVIV$190CAPE TOWN$259ABU DHABI$172WINDHOEK$120GABORONEQ4-2022 22%Q1-20
50、22 19%RATE COMPARISON TO Q4-2022DAILY CAR RENTAL RATESFor three consecutive quarters the corporate car rental global ADR was$51,+23%on Q1-2022,and set to remain high for all of 2023.2023 ROAD AHEADWith continued high demand for car rental,there are two factors which continue to impact travelers in 2
51、023:1)High daily rates due to increased supply chain costs and strong demand.2)Constrained car availability due to reduced fleet replacement stock and delays in parts and repairs.Book early to secure your car!MobilityKey Takeaways Q1-2023MICRO MOBILITYMicro mobility is the use of bicycles,e-scooters
52、 and e-mopeds for the first and last mile of travel.It is a city-led convenience in countries like Netherlands,Denmark,Germany,France,China,etc.What makes it so attractive?Outside of walking,micro mobility has low carbon emissions and is cheap.If your travelers had an option*would they swap a taxi f
53、or an e-scooter?REGION*Q1-2023ADR%var.to Q1-2022AMERICAS$50 19%APAC$89 122%EMEA$74 46%ADR=Average Daily Rate Booked*Regional ADRs reported represent region where car was hired*The option based on location with safe infrastructure,good weather,traveler self-confidence,suitable attire and small bags.M
54、ore InformationFCM ConsultingThis report was prepared by the FCM Consulting Analytics team,which forms part of FCM.All materials presented in this report,unless specifically indicated otherwise,is under copyright and proprietary to FCM.Information contained herein,including projections,has been obta
55、ined from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication.Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance,accuracy,completeness and currency of the information of this publication.This report is presented for information purposes only.All rights to the mate
56、rial are reserved and none of the material,nor its content,nor any copy of it,may be altered in any way,transmitted to,copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of FCM.Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of this report is prohibited.FCM will not be liable for any loss,damage,cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.To learn more about FCM C potential with