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1、Navigating Future Uncertainty in Australia with Megatrends September 2023Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today

2、,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organisations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of pe

3、rspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organisation,fueled by

4、 the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP3On behalf of Boston Consulting Groups Australian team,I am pleased to be able to bring BCGs globally-renowned megatrends work to Australia.The release of Navigating Future Uncertainty i

5、n Australia with Megatrends is the first in a series of papers tracking ten megatrends that are set to shape Australia with concrete and lasting impact,in a post-pandemic world.Megatrends are all around us.They are large social,economic,political and technological changes that are slow to form,but o

6、nce in place,indelibly reshape the global economy and have lasting influence.Throughout history and across the world,the ability to pool knowledge and help each other to make sense of it has made the difference in societys ability to adapt or adopt in response to far-off challenges and opportunities

7、.Our team in our Australian offices have worked closely with BCGs global Centre for Sensing and Mining the Future,to identify and track megatrends that are most pertinent to the Australian economy.Some megatrends in this paper are global,while others are undeniably and uniquely Aussie.Together,they

8、paint a picture as to what the future could look like and drive conversation on what needs to be done right now to be ready.The megatrends in this paper are in short digestible snapshots to assist leaders,decision-makers,organisations and individuals who are looking to navigate,prioritise and progre

9、ss in a time of uncertainty.Phillip BenedettiManaging Director and Partner,Boston Consulting GroupOur world is constantly changing,shaped by megatrends high-impact,quantifiable shifts that have a profound impact on the way we live and do business over several decade(s).You might ask,“So what?Hasnt t

10、his always been the case?”.While the answer is yes,we now see that:The sources of uncertainty have evolved to include environmental,biological,geo-political and cyber risks,on top of traditional economic,competitive and technology risk.The speed of change has accelerated with the new technologies,cl

11、imate change,high levels of debt,social media and more.The stakes are higher than ever,with stakeholders expecting organisations to better detect megatrends,respond to them decisively,and more proactively build resilience.Megatrends are inherently global and dont typically exist in isolation spannin

12、g shifts in technology,the environment,the economy,geo-politics,consumer trends and more.However,some manifest uniquely in Australias context or impact Australia more than other countries.This article is the first in a series on the most prominent megatrends in Australia.It introduces the ways theyr

13、e manifesting on our shores,some of their implications for organisations and governments,and what can be done to mitigate them.Accelerating climate change.While Australia is no stranger to extreme weather,the severity,frequency and unpredictability of severe storms,droughts,bushfires and flooding is

14、 only poised to grow.Australia is already experiencing hotter,drier and wetter climate patterns.1 The annual average risk costs of extreme weather and climate change to properties is projected to rise to$91 billion per year in 2050 and$117 billion per year in 2100 in Australia (see Exhibit 2).2 Fede

15、ral and state governments need robust adaptability and resilience models to support impacted communities and stakeholders through disasters,and to avoid or mitigate their impact.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP4Exhibit 1-Most relevant megatrends in Australia range across 5 major themes.1.Australian Actuaries

16、 Climate Index 199020222.Climate Council,2019 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP5Sectors need to work with each other and government to develop innovative and data-informed solutions to minimise the direct cost of natural disasters to consumers and insurers;insurance losses are trending upward,with a record hi

17、gh in 2022.The net-zero imperative.Achieving net-zero by 2050 is not just an environmental imperative its a business imperative that requires bold action and across all sectors and nations.Australia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43%below 2005 levels by 2030 and meeting net-ze

18、ro by 2050 an ambition expected to require$2.5 trillion Exhibit 2-Frequency and duration of extreme temperatures.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP3.Transition to Net-Zero,Global Australia4.Climate Change Roadmap Towards a Net-Zero and Resilient Future,Insurance council of Australia,November 20225.Statement of

19、 Monetary Policy May 2023,RBA6.Australian National Accounts,ABS,March 20236investment in the next 3 decades.3,4 While the cost might be substantive,the benefits to companies taking leadership in transition strategies are multifaceted;climate leaders realise higher growth,attract and retain better ta

20、lent,experience lower regulatory risks,access cheaper capital and achieve higher shareholder returns(see Exhibit 3).Developing and implementing a net-zero transition strategy requires companies to collaborate with government and acquire skills to support new businesses and technology.And for those w

21、ith the greatest contributions to make such as the automotive,food,retail,energy sectors it requires significant investment in decarbonising operations and strengthening resilience.Financial crisis.Australia is positioned for a turbulent recovery from record inflation as the RBA forecasts slowing GD

22、P growth and rising unemployment(see Exhibit 4).5 In 2022,non-discretionary and discretionary household spending outpaced inflation and in turn,household savings ratio reduced by 8.5 percentage points from Dec21 to Dec22.6 Households committed to 20.5%fewer new Exhibit 3-Climate Leaders Gain Competi

23、tive Advantage.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP7housing loans in May23(vs May22),while household and personal goods loans increased by 15.6%.7 Australian companies need to prepare for rising costs,reduced consumer spending and changing customer behavior.They need to develop robust scenario plans,adapt to ari

24、sing opportunities and focus on maintaining their bottom line.For banks,this means reinforcing existing responsible lending practices and re-evaluating product constructs as mortgages roll over to variable rates and the housing market strengthens in a high interest rate environment.Supply chain vola

25、tility.Global supply chain shocks have subsided,pressures have recovered to pre-pandemic levels and Australian companies are experiencing fewer Exhibit 4-Australias challenging economic recovery.7.Lending Indicators,ABS,May 2023BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP8disruptions(see Exhibit 5).However,geopolitical

26、tensions and evolving international relations will continue to shape global trade and supply chains,positioning Australian companies to capitalise on existing opportunities.Globally,only 10%of companies have resilient and responsive supply chains.These companies recover faster from disruption and be

27、nefit financially.8 Companies with leading supply chains have outpaced the gross profit growth of laggards by up to 55 percentage points.9 Australian companies need to assess investment opportunities to develop resilient supply chains.Developing supply chain resilience could involve:Identifying and

28、assessing risks and establishing visibility across the supply chain Implementing measures to predict and identify supply chain shocks and conducting scenario planning to outline a clear decision-making process Evaluating and redesigning supply chain operations including supply chain network design,s

29、ourcing strategies and planning and inventory management Developing wide-ranging enablers for supply chain resilience,such as digital tools,processes,governance and culture.8.If Disruption is the New Normal,Operational Resilience is the New Necessity,BCG,20229.BCG Executive Perspectives:The CEOs Dil

30、emma,Preparing Your Supply Chain for Resilience,BCG,2022Exhibit 5-Easing pressures on the global supply chain.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP9Shifting generations.Changing demographics,particularly the preferences of Gen Z and Millennials,are reshaping how companies operate,with Millennials now Australias l

31、argest generational cohort.10 These younger generations prioritise social and environmental responsibility and are willing to pay more for brands that have a positive impact on society or run their business in a sustainable way.11 This is pushing companies to adopt more sustainable practices and ada

32、pt marketing to attract and retain these digitally savvy consumers.With Baby Boomers accounting for 50%of Australias wealth while representing 21%of the population,it is expected that they will pass on$225 billion in inheritances each year to Millennials and Gen Z by 2050.12,13 Companies can cater t

33、o the unique needs and preferences of these generations and position themselves to capture a significant share of this inherited wealth.Growing health and wellness concerns.Australia is experiencing rising public health concerns.The prevalence of chronic health conditions such as mental health probl

34、ems,back problems and arthritis are increasing;78.6%of Australians had at least one long-term health condition in 2021.Nearly 46.6%(or 11.6 million)had at least one chronic condition.14 Public awareness of rising health concerns has driven 60%of Australians to attempt lose weight.15 And 80%of Austra

35、lians to prioritise keeping themselves and their family healthy in 2021(an 11%increase on the prior 5 years).16 This increasing health and wellness awareness has been mirrored by consumer health spending,which has risen by 5.4%each year over the past decade(see Exhibit 6).Though total health spendin

36、g has steadily increased,private health insurance participation is decreasing among younger demographics who increasingly feel that it is unaffordable and fails to provide value.Insurers and government should partner to create an ecosystem in which younger and healthier individuals see the value in

37、participating in health insurance,if they are to maintain affordability of health insurance across demographics.Exhibit 6-Rising health concerns are matched by rising health spending.10.ABS 2021 Census 11.Sustainability Practices Gen Z are willing to pay more for in Australia,Statista,2022 12.Austra

38、lias Income and Wealth Distribution,McCrindle,2023 13.Managing Wealth,Findex,November 2022 14.Health Conditions Prevalence,ABS 15.National Talks Survey 2021,ABC 16.Aussies are eager to master health-conscious lifestyles,Nielsen BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP10War for talent.In a post-COVID world,companies

39、must adapt their workforce strategies to meet changing employee expectations.17 The Future Forums Pulse survey revealed that 81%of Australian full-time knowledge workers(people working with data,analysing information,thinking creatively)desire location flexibility,and 95%seek schedule flexibility.18

40、 This emphasises the importance of flexibility in retaining talent,with 70%of employees open to exploring new roles.19 Companies are responding to these changing expectations.The percentage of remote positions has tripled since 2020.20 And while many companies are mandating 23 days in the office,the

41、y are recognising other aspects of flexibility and diversity,such as acknowledging religious holidays,encouraging the formation of minority networks and engaging with political decisions and affairs.By embracing a holistic approach to flexibility,companies can create inclusive work environments that

42、 attract and retain top talent and foster diversity and equity.Cybersecurity concerns.With recent cyber-attacks on Optus,Medibank and Latitude impacting almost 20 million customers,awareness of cyber security and the risks associated with data breaches has increased.Beyond these major public attacks

43、,its estimated that theres over 750 cyber-attacks every day in Australia and this is expected to double in the next 5 years.21 This has led to significant growth in the cybersecurity sector,including the Australian Governments$9.9 billion investment to build cyber capabilities and national intellige

44、nce over the next 10 years.22To counter these escalating threats,companies are being more proactive to prevent or minimise the impact of potential attacks.Given the substantial costs associated with cyber-attacks,investment is expected to increase it is crucial for companies to allocate sufficient r

45、esources to protect their systems and sensitive customer information.Adequate spending on cybersecurity is not only a strategic imperative but also necessary to mitigate risks and ensure the long-term resilience of organisations in todays evolving cyber landscape.AI and the autonomous world.Artifici

46、al Intelligence(AI)is widely used in Australia from self-driving vehicles in mining,compliance management in finance,to supporting clinical decisions in health care.AI could contribute more than$20 trillion to the global economy by 2030 and has already proven transformative in many industries with m

47、any emerging use-cases.23 For example,AI has been used to automate manual,repetitive tasks such as customer onboarding,content management and administrative reporting.It has also augmented the way companies work,for example by supporting software engineers with coding,generating synthetic data to su

48、pport decision-making,and mitigating risks with real-time fraud investigation.17.BCG Executive Perspectives:Investing to Win Talent,BCG,July 202118.Finding Balance in the Future of Work in Australia,BCG,September 2022 19.Finding Balance in the Future of Work in Australia,BCG,September 202220.2022 Ta

49、lent Playbook,EMSI,Burning Glass 21.Australias Cyber Security Sector Competitiveness Plan,AustCyber,202222.Australian Trade&Investment Commission:Cyber Security23.Australias AI Action plan,Australian Government 2021BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP11Generative AI(GenAI)is developing at unprecedented rates and

50、 the total addressable market globally is expected to reach$180 billion by 2027($121 billion USD),from$27 billion in 2023($18 billion USD).24 To illustrate the scale and speed of GenAI uptake:what ChatGPT achieved in 5 days took Netflix 3.5 years and Twitter 2 years.25 GenAI is unlocking significant

51、 benefits for organisations,with BCG looking to incorporate it into our own ways of working(see Exhibit 7).Exhibit 7-Benefits of GenAI.Exhibit 8-GenAI risks and mitigants.However,GenAI comes with business risks that are hard to mitigate.These risks need to be carefully managed by organisations that

52、seek to leverage its capability to drive operational efficiencies and better customer outcomes (see Exhibit 8).Find further BCG articles about GenAI.Digital Economy.The digital economy has grown and expanded into a multi-trillion-dollar sector,driving the growth of organisations and the broader econ

53、omy.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP12BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP13Companies have a narrow opportunity to capitalise and adapt to the ever-changing digital economy;and those that cannot adapt are left behind.The average lifespan of a company has shrunk from 61 years to 18 years over the past 50 years and the tec

54、hnology adoption curve is 7 times what it was 20 years ago.26 Digital activity accounted for 6.1%of the total economy value added in 2020-2021 and the Australian Government has taken on significant and ambitious targets to bring the digital economy to the forefront.27 As part of the Governments Digi

55、tal Economy Strategy,Australia has bolstered investment with$1.5 billion in 2021,with a further$1.1 billion in 2022 and is aiming for over 10%of the Australian workforce to be in digitally intense industries by 2030.28,29 Australian companies need to act now to design a holistic approach and develop

56、 initiatives to capitalise on the digital economy and best adapt to the constantly changing digital landscape.Megatrends provide leaders with a vision and agenda,highlighting how Australias competitive structure and landscape will change in the coming years.Organisations need to shift their focus to

57、 megatrends so they can adapt and thrive.This is the first of a new thought-leadership series by BCG focused on megatrends in Australia.Stay tuned for further articles that will explore these megatrends in detail over the coming months.26.Charting Economic Opportunities in the New Digital Paradigm,B

58、CG,202227.Digital activity in the Australian economy,2020-2021,ABS,Oct 202228.Digital Economy Strategy 2022 Update Released,March 202229.Digital Economy Strategy,Australian Government,2021About the AuthorsPhillip Benedetti is a Managing Director and Partner in the Auckland office of Boston Consultin

59、g Group.You may contact Phillip by email at .Sam Farley is a Managing Director and Partner in the Melbourne office of Boston Consulting Group.You may contact Sam by email at .Fergie Romero is a Principal in the Melbourne office of Boston Consulting Group.Kaushick Maheshwaran is an Associate in the M

60、elbourne office of Boston Consulting Group.Anna Leonedas is a Communications Senior Specialist in the Melbourne office of Boston Consulting Group.Ankita Srivastava is a Knowledge Director in the ACC-Gurugram office of Boston Consulting Group.Katrina Bigelow is a Project Leader in the Melbourne offic

61、e of Boston Consulting Group.Namya Bajaj is a Senior Knowledge Analyst in the ACC-Gurugram office of Boston Consulting Group.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP14The authors are grateful to a number of colleagues for their support and assistance.They include Jan Loubal and Paul Sutherland for marketing,Rebecca

62、Diepenheim for design and layout and Esteban Zapiola and Raymond Fung for video production.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook,LinkedIn and Twitter.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.09/